SB Nation - Reid Brignac

A Brief Primer on the Rays Off-Season to Date and a Look Forward to the Winter Meetings

R.J. Anderson — Sun, 06 Dec 2009 18:54:22 -0000

The Winter Meetings start tomorrow. Any murmur or misunderstood comment will be amplified and some press members will be used as pawns. Disinformation is going to spread like wildfire. This makes the event more alluring as a spectator sport, but keep in mind 90% of what is talked about will never come to fruition. Now, completely ignoring that, this is the day one open thread. Ideally most of the rumors and discussion will stick to this thread until a recap thread is posted (expect that in the evening) barring something actually occurring or a rumor passing the smell test with flying colors.

This thread is going up about 20 hours early because tomorrow we'll have a very special interview with James Click -- the Rays chief of quantitative analysis and former Baseball Prospectus deity - which should provide entertainment for those willing to accept anything less than rumors in the early AM.

Moving on, let's review the Rays off-season to date in a brief and concise manner which means links.

Transactions

Rays re-sign Gabe Kapler

Akinori Iwamura for Jesse Chavez

Player to be named later for Kelly Shoppach

R.J. Swindle signs minor league deal

Joe Bateman signs minor league deal

Gregg Zaun signs with Milwaukee

Ramon Ramirez is claimed on waivers...

And then released

Milton Bradley

The Burrell-Bradley swap

The clubhouse cancer theory

Rumors and general interest posts

Rays interested in Ivan Rodriguez?

Pirates make Reid Brignac main target?

Why Billy Wagner made no sense for the Rays

Three rules about acquiring relievers

The Rays and the win curve

Kiko Calero

Brendan Donnelly

Kelvim Escobar

Joaquin Benoit

Carl Crawford extension talk

Interviews with Rays personnel

Andrew Friedman

Matt Arnold

Chaim Bloom

Remember that you can also follow the latest Rays rumors, news, and tidbits on Twitter by adding @draysbay, @trancel, @ehahmann, or @freezorilla.

One more note: please, please, post the source of the rumor. And generally speaking, the MLBTR comments section or a random message board post won't pass the smell test.

Report: Reid Brignac "Primary Trade Target" Of Pittsburgh Pirates

Tommy Rancel — Sat, 05 Dec 2009 00:12:45 -0000

More photos » by Chris O'Meara - AP

Browse more photos »

John Perrotto is reporting that once again, Reid Brignac has captured the attention of the Pittsburgh Pirates front office. Perrotto says that once the winter meetings kick off in Indianapolis next week, Brignac will be the primary trade target for the Buccos. Their affinity for Brignac dates back to the summer of 2008 when the Rays and Pirates discussed a potential swap of Brignac + for then Pirate, Jason Bay. The deal was even reported as done, but as you all know Bay ended up in Boston.

While Perrotto doesn't mention who the Rays asked for in return, he mentioned that the Pirates have tried to pass off closer Matt Capps and possibily have thrown around the idea of starter Zach Duke. Duke, an All Star in 2009, wouldn't make much sense for the Rays. Sure, he is young (26) and left-handed, but he'd probably the fifth or sixth best starter on the Rays without counting Jeremy Hellickson. He also made $2.2 million dollars last season and will defintely see a nice raise in arbitration with an all star appearance to his credit. The only way I see the Rays acquiring Duke is to flip for additional prospects.

Matt Capps had an ugly 2009 highlighted by his 5.80 ERA and his 4.90 FIP. Either number you choose to look at is ugly, but hey he had 27 saves! The good news is Capps appears to have broken a few mirrors and stepped on a few cracks at some point between the end of 2008 and beginning of 2009 and is in line for some regression. The biggest problem for Capps in 2009 was home runs. Allowing 10 home runs in 54.1 innings, he watched his HR/9 nearly double from 0.84 in '08 to 1.66 in 2009. This can be attributed to a HR/FB rate that also almost doubled from 6.8% to 13.5%. His BABIP also jumped nearly .100 points to .370

In 2007 and 2008, Capps proved to be an above average reliever. With some regression to the mean, he could be back to those levels in 2010. Like Duke, Capps is 26, however, he is under contract for 2009 at a reasonable $2.3 million with some incentives for games finished. The bad news is it is the final year of a two-year deal. Stuff wise, Capps sits in the mid 90s and throws a slider and a change-up. Despite the solid velocity, he doesn't strikeout many, but keeps his walks in check (career BB/9 1.66).

Obviously, I wouldn't agree to a Brignac for Capps deal straight up, but it could be a starting point. The fact that the Rays would be giving up more controlled Brignac years would mean the Pirates would need to sweeten the pot quite a bit.

Tuesday's Frosty Mug

KLSnow — Tue, 01 Dec 2009 15:30:24 -0000

More photos » by Darren Hauck - AP

Pretty much everyone except Doug Melvin seems to think the Brewers should offer arbitration to Felipe Lopez.

Browse more photos »

Some things to read while not getting what you hoped for.

The Brewers have until 11 pm tonight to finalize their plan to offer or decline arbitration to five free agents, and while Tom H. seems to think the Brewers will extend an offer to Felipe Lopez, Adam McCalvy is reporting the team is "leaning against" making the offer to any of the five (FanShot).

All of this is another episode in the "Doug Melvin Moments" series I think most of us are getting increasingly sick of. Doug, we get it. Times are tough for the ever-so-downtrodden small-to-mid market GM with the job many of us would kill for. If the system is really so unbearable, you're welcome to quit and be replaced by someone who will spend more time working with the tools they have and less time bitching about the ones they don't.

Assuming Melvin does eventually get off his soapbox and get back to the task of improving the team, Wisconsin Sports Tap has a guide for prospective new Brewers that can help them avoid becoming the next Jeff Suppan, Bill Hall or Johnny Estrada.

With that said, it might be a while before we have news on Mark Mulder. Roguejim uncovered a story yesterday that sheds some light on Mulder's rehab and situation, and raises the possibility that Mulder will decide not to come back if he's unable to perform at a level he's accustomed to.

We're also probably just about done discussing Kevin Millwood. Rangers beat reporter T.R. Sullivan had this to say about the rumors:

The Rangers wouldn't mind adding pitching but they don't want to subtract it so they are not trying to move Kevin Millwood. Word is the Brewers were interested but Rangers general manager Jon Daniels and Doug Melvin haven't spoke in weeks, That might change at the Winter Meetings but the Rangers still need Millwood's arm far more than they need to move his salary.

Adam McCalvy opened up the mailbag yesterday and answered reader questions on the possibility of a Prince Fielder extension, Dominican prospect Santo Aybar, Lorenzo Cain and Caleb Gindl.

Elsewhere in the minors:

Lisa Winston of MiLB.com has a review of the season for the Brewer minor leagues, and a look at the attempt to build pitching depth in the system.
Project Prospect has Jonathan Lucroy ranked ninth on their list of baseball's top 15 catching prospects. Angel Salome was not ranked.
The Baseball Chronicle has Alcides Escobar as a backup infielder on their 2010 All Prospect Team. Escobar is on the bench behind Rays prospect Reid Brignac and Cubs SS prospect Starlin Castro, who is playing out of position at second base.
Rattler Radio has photos of the construction at Time Warner Field, where they're hard at work adding the new beach seats, boardwalk and bullpens.

Up for some arbitrary list-making today? Miller Park Drunk has a list of the top ten Brewers of the decade. It's worth a click for the picture, if nothing else.

John Axford might have an outside shot at winning a spot in the Brewer bullpen next spring, depending on how rest of the offseason goes. In the meantime, he spent yesterday talking to college students about life in the big leagues and the importance of education.

On the transaction log:

Cardinals: Re-signed catcher Jason LaRue and signed infielder Ruben Gotay to a minor league deal.
Mets: Signed catcher Chris Coste, and re-signed infielder Alex Cora to a one year deal worth $2 million.
Pirates: Signed reliever Wil Ledezma to a minor league deal and released catcher Robinzon Diaz.

Wondering what it might take for the Brewers to acquire Edwin Jackson? Here's a hint: The Mariners reportedly turned down an offer from the Tigers would have sent Jackson to Seattle for pitchers Brandon Morrow and Shawn Kelley. So apparently the price is pretty high.

If the Brewers are serious about making an effort to sign Justin Duchscherer, they may have competition within the division: MLB Trade Rumors says the Pirates are one of the interested teams.

The Brewers probably won't be players in the Roy Halladay sweepstakes, but odds are the competition will heat up soon. Halladay has reportedly told the Blue Jays he won't accept any deal after reporting to spring training in February.

With the Winter Meetings coming up, we have more Rule 5 Draft notes: Baseball Time In Arlington has a look at the top ten unprotected pitchers, including former Brewer farmhand Will Inman.

Yesterday I mentioned the voting for the third baseman on the Timber Rattlers' 15th Anniversary team, and left a comment on Rattler Radio asking about the fate of top contender Bo Robinson, who had a few promising seasons in the Mariner organization before dropping off the map in 2002. Within 24 hours the answer was the subject of this week's Mehring Monday. Impressive turnaround time, to be sure.

I'm a few days behind on this one, but I recently discovered Cooperstown Chatter, the MLBlog run by the Baseball Hall of Fame, and this post on Rollie Fingers' 1981 MVP season. It's almost as impressive as Matt Stairs having a street named after him in Fredericton, New Brunswick.

By the way, if you've ever been to the Baseball Hall of Fame, or you haven't but would like to go someday, you can become a fan on Facebook. As an added bonus, Facebook fans get to help in the voting for this year's broadcaster induction.

On this day in 1967, Seattle was awarded an American League expansion franchise. I guess that makes today the Brewers' date of conception?

Happy birthday today to Tom Filer, who posted a 4.32 ERA in 39 appearances as a Brewer during the '88-'90 seasons and turns 53, and to Julio Machado, who spent parts of the 1990 and 1991 seasons as a Brewer before being arrested for murder in Venezuela. He turns 44.

Oh, and I haven't actually watched it yet (no sound on the computer where I write the Mug), but this video has Rammstein and Cookie Monster, so what could possibly go wrong?

Drink up.

A Brief Rundown on Rays Rumors; Reid Brignac, Yorvit Torrealba, Carl Crawford, and Milton Bradley

R.J. Anderson — Sun, 29 Nov 2009 17:29:20 -0000

Lazy morning, let's recap some rumors (rumors!) that were ignored because of the holiday weekend.

The Jays called about Reid Brignac

As have other teams, I'm sure. No use in speculating too much about what the Rays asked from the Jays in exchange, but realistically? Probably a package headed by Brandon League or Jason Frasor. These talks are reminiscent of the Julio Lugo talks way back which involved names like League and Ricky Romero amongst others. The differences are A) Brignac is younger with more service time and B) the Rays are the team dealing for immediate results. Of course the Jays turned around and signed Alex Gonzalez which would signal they're not interested - at the moment, at least - in continuing talks for the lefty.

The Rays have called Yorvit Torrealba

And most other catchers on the market, I'm sure. Torrealba has carved out a niche for himself over the last four seasons as a reserve catcher for the Rockies. He was paid nearly four million bucks last season and an inflated BABIP lead to his best offensive season in years. He generally throws out more than the 14% he did last season, so maybe the two extremes wash each other out. He doesn't have a platoon split and he actually hit for less power last season than any other season in his career. Nevertheless, odds are he's going to cost more than the Rays should pay for a back-up catcher.

Latest on Carl Crawford

My source says Crawford is interested in playing baseball in 2010 and beyond.

Latest on Milton Bradley

The Rays want the Cubs to pay for a lot of the contract, the Cubs would rather not yet want to move the pariah.

That about does it for now.

The Rookies Who Aren't

TheJay — Tue, 24 Nov 2009 11:00:16 -0000

Determining rookie status:

A player shall be considered a rookie unless, during a previous season or seasons, he has (a) exceeded 130 at-bats or 50 innings pitched in the Major Leagues; or (b) accumulated more than 45 days on the active roster of a Major League club or clubs during the period of 25-player limit (excluding time in the military service and time on the disabled list).

The first part of the definition of a rookie in Major League Baseball is straightforward. Once a player reaches 131 at bats or 50 1/3 innings pitched, he's no longer a rookie. The second part is a little trickier. After all, service time numbers are hard to find. They generally come out once each year, in team media guides. Add in the fact that you have to subtract time in the major leagues after September 1st and on the disabled list and it's even harder to figure out who is truly a rookie.

It has already been mentioned this offseason that Mat Gamel eclipsed 45 days of service time before September. Gamel was recalled from Nashville on May 14th and optioned back on July 20th, giving him 67 days on the active roster during the "period of 25-player limit." So, even though he sits at 130 career at bats, the same number Scott Rolen had going into his Rookie of the Year season, Gamel cannot win the Rookie of the Year award (though that might not stop him from getting votes).

Gamel isn't the only such little-used non-rookie in the Brewers organization. Raise your hand if you realized Hernan Iribarren has 48 days of major league service time, all before September 1. Iribarren spent 20 days on the major league roster in April and June 2008, picking up 14 at bats. He spent 28 days in the majors in 2009, batting a mere 13 times. I'm going to go out on a limb and predict he wasn't going to win the 2010 Rookie of the Year Award anyway.

New Brewer George Kottaras also enters 2010 off the list of rookie players. He spent all of 2009 in the majors with the Red Sox, playing in 45 games with 93 at bats. Though he spent the month of August on the disabled list, he gave up his 2010 rookie status in mid-May.

Gamel, Iribarren, and Kottaras are not the only little-used rookies. Follow the jump for a list of all such position players to appear in the majors in 2008 or 2009. Please note it is lengthy and full of guys who have no chance at winning an award anyway. I will post a list of pitchers in the next few days.

Non-Rookies with 130 or fewer career AB:

Mat Gamel, 130 career AB
Joaquin Arias, 129 AB
Argenis Reyes, 127 AB
Jose Morales, 122 AB
Ivan Ochoa*, 120 AB
Michel Hernandez, 118 AB
Curtis Thigpen*, 118 AB
Ramiro Pena, 115 AB
Josh Whitesell, 115 AB
Luke Carlin, 112 AB
Chris Gimenez, 111 AB
Tyler Greene, 108 AB
Sam Fuld, 103 AB
Reid Brignac, 100 AB
Francisco Cervelli, 99 AB
George Kottaras, 98 AB
Freddy Guzman, 95 AB
Robinson Cancel, 94 AB
Guillermo Rodriguez, 92 AB
Steve Holm, 91 AB
Justin Ruggiano*, 90 AB
Nathan Haynes*, 89 AB
Diory Hernandez, 85 AB
Don Kelly, 83 AB
Dane Sardinha, 80 AB
Luis Maza*, 79 AB
Paul Hoover, 78 AB
Edwin Maysonet, 76 AB
Dusty Ryan, 70 AB
Clint Sammons, 68 AB
Tug Hulett, 67 AB
Drew Sutton, 66 AB
J.R. House*, 60 AB
John Mayberry, 57 AB
Gregorio Petit, 54 AB
Brian Myrow*, 51 AB
Chris Stewart*, 48 AB
Justin Christian*, 40 AB
Travis Denker*, 37 AB
Gustavo Molina*, 34 AB
Hernan Iribarren, 27 AB
Ryan Budde, 23 AB

* - last appeared in the majors in 2008

I warned you. If I missed anyone or included someone who should not be on the list, let me know in the comments.

The Last Man Sitting

Erik Hahmann — Tue, 20 Oct 2009 11:15:31 -0000

One of the more interesting story lines of this offseason, to me at anyway, will be the competition for the last remaining bench spot*.

*This is barring any major trades or signings before opening day

The Rays came into 2009 with a fairly strong bench consisting of Ben Zobrist, Gabe Kapler/Gross, Willy Aybar, and Shawn Riggans. Although he was already getting semi-regular at bats, Ben Zobrist was thrust into the starting lineup when Aki Iwamura went down with a knee injury in late May. That injury forced the Rays to call up players like Reid Brignac and Joe Dillon to warm the now vacant bench spot. Shawn Riggans suffered his usual injury set back which allowed Michel Hernandez a roster spot until the Zaunbie Nation came to Tampa Bay. The bench was obviously stretched out more than the Rays would have liked last season but it did an admirable job. The options for 2010 will offer a slightly different cast of characters.

Fernando Perez:

-Perez has long been one of my favorite Ray players, but that’s been more for his talents off the field than on it. A useful reserve outfielder for most teams, Perez may be forced out of a roster spot with the Rays thanks to a likely Matt Joyce/Ben Zobrist platoon in right field. Perez would be better served playing every day in Triple A and working on the next great American novel instead of wasting away at the end of the Rays bench.

Reid Brignac:

-The probable shortstop of the future, Brignac does have an option left and would no doubt be better off playing full time at Durham than riding the pine in St. Pete. Unless the Rays trade Jason Bartlett I don't see Brignac beginning the year on the Rays bench.

Gabe Kapler:

-Kapler is an interesting candidate. He doesn't yet have a contract for 2010, but the Rays would be in need of a right handed outfield bat coming off the bench. Kapler earned $1m last season and did job very well, putting up an OPS of .931 against left handed pitching. If Kapler is willing to accept another contract of $1m, or maybe a little less, I think the Rays have to seriously consider bringing him back.

Willy Aybar:

Aybar will undoubtably be a member of the Rays' bench in 2010 as the primary backup at 3B/1B. Even though Aybar rated uncharacteristically poor at every defensive position he played in 2009 he isn't a liability with the glove and his bat more than holds its own. The addition of Sean Rodriguez will drastically cut into the amount of games Aybar sees at second base next season. His salary of $1.35m is very reasonable for the production he provides.

Sean Rodriguez:

The main piece in the Scott Kazmir trade, Rodriguez will likely be the platoon partner of Ben Zobrist at second base and is able to backup Jason Bartlett at shortstop. He'll strike out enough to get the local fans to boo him, but his versatility and power bat should be enough to assure himself of a bench spot in 2010.

Matt Joyce:

I see Matt Joyce being a part of what I'm calling the Ben Zobrist Platoon menage a trois. Joyce starts in right field against right handed pitchers while Zobrist starts at 2B. Against southpaws Joyce would sit in favor of the switch hitting Zobrist, while Rodriguez would play second base. Joyce spent most of 2009 in AAA and played well enough to earn a promotion, not to mention the fact that Gabe Gross and Gabe Kapler are not likely to return.

Catcher:

The plan for a starting catcher is still up in the air, so I'm even going to begin to speculate on who the backup will be, but obviously there will be one on the roster.

I'm not sure which direction the team will go, but I'm strongly in favor of the re-signing of Gabe Kapler. They could go with a four or five man bench next season depending on how they decide to structure the bullpen. If they choose a four man bench I think Rodriguez, Aybar, Kapler, and Catcher would be the best fit to begin the season. If they go five then I would lean toward Fernando Perez to fill the last spot, if only for his pinch running abilities. No matter who they choose or how they structure it, the Rays will once again have a cost effective and productive bench in 2010.

How Do You Know When Your 23-Year-Old Shortstop Possesses a Bench Fetish?

R.J. Anderson — Tue, 15 Sep 2009 19:54:16 -0000

Reid Brignac was promoted on September 3^rd. The Rays were out of the playoff hunt for all intents and purposes. Since then, he's appeared in two games with those being the second game of the Labor Day doubleheader and Monday night's game. During that span the Rays have faced:

Justin Verlander
Armando Galarraga
Edwin Jackson
CC Sabathia
A.J. Burnett
Chad Gaudin
Joba Chamberlain
Josh Beckett
Clay Buchholz
Jon Lester
David Hernandez

11 pitchers and 9 of them are righties. Brignac faced two of them. Ben Zobrist and Jason Bartlett are having fantastic seasons and benching them for a 23-year-old rookie might be conceived as a slap in the face so to an extent I understand why he's sitting more often than anything else. Still if the kid is up, he needs to play. He can hit right-handed pitching and the Rays are seeing a heavy dosage. Whether the plan is for him to have a big role on the 2010 team or not, there is no reason to have him in the majors if you won't let him play more than once a week.

Note: And as I post this it turns out Brignac is in the lineup tonight at second base. So there.

Reid Brignac Hits First Major League Home Run; Goes 4-4 as Rays End Streak

Tommy Rancel — Tue, 15 Sep 2009 02:30:18 -0000

It's over.

The horrific 11-game losing streak for the Tampa Bay Rays is finally over. With an 8-4 victory over the Baltimore Orioles, the Rays are finally winners once again. The losing streak is now an afterthought and in the end really did nothing except improve the Rays draft position. However, a win does feel good even if it doesn't mean much in the bigger scheme of things.

One of the more interesting storylines in the offseason will be the future of the shortstop position. Reid Brignac figures to be a major part of that discussion and he gave us something to talk about with his 4-4 performance including two doubles and his first major league home run. Brignac nearly completed the cycle in the seventh inning, however, his line drive up the rightfield line was hit a bit too hard and he instead settled for his second double of the night.

Brignac is the sixth player in Rays history to register a four-hit game before his 30^thcareer game. Michel Hernandez also accomplished this feat earlier in the season. He also joins another young short stop, who put up a very similar box score line over a half century ago. Way back in 1955, a young Donald William Zimmer playing in his 29^thcareer game, went 4-4 with a home run, two doubles and three RBI just like Brignac. Here's to the next 60+ years Reid!

Also nice to see the bullpen hold a lead for two innings after David Price went seven allowing four first inning runs (three earned). Price wasn't dominant by any stretch with just four strikeouts and two walks, however after the first inning he allowed zero runs and three hits over his final six frames. Price threw 107 pitches (84 fastballs) and continued to pound the ground with 10 more groundball outs.

The 2010 Shortstop Dilemma

R.J. Anderson — Mon, 14 Sep 2009 10:00:26 -0000

Baseball players are a lot like musicians. During their undiscovered years their fans value them higher than any mainstream act. This is when fans are most devoted. They help pass out flyers, they let their friends borrow the demo tapes, and so on. Eventually the band or rapper or whatever reaches mainstream status and seemingly loses the adoration factor because everything beloved becomes distorted and overstated. They're just another band now. Everyone knows of them and that mystique is gone. Common rapped about a similar phenomenon in "I Used to Love H.E.R.". "Her" in this case refers to hip hop. He talks about how everyone does "her" nowadays and how that's affected their relationship and such.

Back when the Rays acquired Jason Bartlett, I think I was probably one of the half dozen people thrilled. During the 2007 season - using Range Zone Rating and Out of Zone Plays; this was the pre-UZR time period for me - I harped about the need for a defensive upgrade at shortstop far too much. I lusted for John McDonald, or Adam Everett, or ... Jason Bartlett. I doubt I named him, but when Andrew Friedman pulled the trigger and I looked at his defensive numbers I knew he was everything I wanted.

Of course people focused on his errors and pondered how a good defensive shortstop could make 26 errors and still keep his reputation. It all came down to range. Bartlett made plays out of his zone, in his zone, and in his neighbor's zone. Really he was a breath of fresh air after witnessing Brendan Harris' patented "three steps and dive" technique.

Along the way I've gained a reputation for hating Bartlett. I guess challenging the merit of his team MVP award while being cautious about anointing him as a suddenly great hitter causes such a label to stick. In that way, Bartlett has gone from underground sensation to a commercialized version of his past self. Depending on what my hipster friend is willing to pay me for my Bartlett CD; it could've endured my last spin. Regardless, I've enjoyed the Jason Bartlett era at shortstop. Whether it ends in a few months or in a few years, I do not know. I do know there are a few possible outcomes.

One of these four things will happen with the shortstop position this off-season:

A) The Rays will keep Jason Bartlett and keep Reid Brignac in Triple-A once more.

B) The Rays will trade Jason Bartlett and install Reid Brignac as the new starter.

C) The Rays will trade Jason Bartlett and install a stop-gap until they feel Brignac is ready.

D) The Rays will keep Jason Bartlett and trade Reid Brignac.

Why trade Bartlett? For one, he's no longer the young, inexpensive player he was just two years ago. He turns 30 the day before Halloween and this off-season marks his second year of arbitration. Bartlett's 2009 salary was nearly 2 million dollars. With his best offensive season ever that figure will shoot up. Historical comparisons seem to suggest Bartlett's salary being in the 3 to 4 million range next season. That's not an albatross, but it could be an inefficient usage of organizational resources.

For one, Bartlett's offensive prowess is likely to revert closer to a .700 OPS than a 1.000 OPS. This isn't a shot at him, but it seems rather unlikely he goes from slap hitter to home run hitter. Next his defense is heading down a wayward path. This is expected though. He's an aging shortstop with recent knee issues. When he arrived with the Rays his previous three UZR seasons were (in descending order): 7.8, 11.5, and 14.4. Since he's posted 2.1 and as of today -5.8. He's not longer a +10 defender, instead more like an average in the -5 < x < 5 runs range.

Make no mistake a player with league average (or slightly below) offense and league average defense at shortstop is worth 3-4 million. That's not the issue here and won't be the issue in the near-future. The reasons for trading Bartlett would be two-fold:

1. His career high offensive year combined with stellar defensive reputation (plus intangibles) may convince a team to give up more for him than they should.

2. Bartlett might not be 3-4 million better than Reid Brignac plus his trade return.

We won't know about the first stipulation outside of leaked speculation. As for the latter one, we can estimate that Brignac is likely a below league average hitter next year and something like a -5 < x < 5 fielder. That's basically what I'd expect from Bartlett, with varying degrees of "below average" offensively. All told, Bartlett has to be about eight runs better offensively assuming everything else is equal.

But that's not the only variable. Bartlett can be a win better than Brignac and be the better player. Still, if a team offers the Rays a package fit for a five-win shortstop, can they really afford to pass it up?

What if Brignac isn't ready? Would the Rays consider Sean Rodriguez or Ben Zobrist? Would they bring in a Bartlett-esque veteran? Maybe they could just play without a shortstop (also known as the Brendan Harris experience).

And, what if, the Rays simply trade Brignac? This would signify they were fully interested in winning now. Presumably Brignac would bring back a decent major league part. Some reasons not to move him: he's young, left-handed, and under team control for a good six seasons.

However this goes down, relish in the fact that this is the second time in franchise history - maybe the first, given B.J. Upton's defensive ineptness at the position - that the Rays aren't short on shortstops.

Jason Bartlett, for Real?

devil_fingers — Thu, 03 Sep 2009 05:25:32 -0000

That Delmon Young and Brendan Harris for Matt Garza and Jason Bartlett (and some other stuff) trade between the Twins and Rays looks better all the time, doesn't it? The big pieces in the trade at the time were thought to be Delmon Young, considered to be still one of the top young hitting prospects in the game, and Matt Garza, and good young pitcher who had fallen out of favor with the Twins organization. Harris and Bartlett were sort of throw-in middle infielders.

I won't review the Garza-Young portion. I simply want to discuss Jason Bartlett. After being one of the most overrated players on the the 2008 AL Champions, Bartlett has been on fire with the bat this season, to say the least, hitting .338/.398/.522 with a .404 wOBA (his stats at the moment I'm typing this).

Jason Bartlett

#8 / Short Stop / Tampa Bay Rays

Height: 6-0

Weight: 190

Bats: R

Throws: R

Born: Oct 30, 1979

That is one contemplative dude.

This offensive explosion is a surprise, to say the least. Given his past performacne and regression to the mean, it's very unlikely that his "true talent" is at this level. And, as Dave Cameron notes, with both Reid Brignac and Sean Rodriguez now in the possible middle infield mix for the Rays in 2009, perhaps it is time for Tampa Bay to sell high on him. So how valuable is Jason Bartlett? That's right, it's another chance for me to be able to do a projection using my usual simplistic tools.

In the article linked above, Cameron concludes that "It will be interesting to see how many teams believe this version of Bartlett is for real." While he is correct to imply that this isn't some brand new level of performance from Bartlett that should be expected going forward, it is also true that this season does count toward a projection of Bartlett's future performance (and Cameron would not deny that). The issue isn't whether Bartlett is the .311-.335 wOBA hitter of 2006-2008 or the .404 wOBA hitter of 2009. Rather, we want to know what, taken together, they indicate about his true talent. So, as per usual, we'll do a little regression, weighting, and, sprinkle on some sabermetric fairy dust (as my friend NYRoyal might put it).

Hitting (and basestealing): As per The Book, a players true wOBA skill per season should be regressed against 220 plate apperances of league average wOBA. Bartlett's wOBA's (using the FanGraphs implementation) from 2006-2009 are .335, .319, .311, and .404, respectively. Regressed, those are .334, .322, .316, and .379. Doing a weighted average (basically 5-4-3-2), we get a .341 wOBA, as his true talent. Converting to runs above average using in this season's run environment, we get ((.341-.328)/1.2)*700 PA: ~7 runs above average per 700 plate appearances.

Fielding: Usually I just do a weighted and regressed average of Ultimate Zone Rating from FanGraphs, but I decided to mix it up this time. I regressed UZR to Bartlett's Speed Score for each season, and also used Tom Tango's Fans Scouting Report as another data point for each season. It's interesting how UZR and the Fans diverged. Bartlett's UZR/150s from 2006-2009 are 16.1, 9.0, 2.9, and -7. However, when I converted the Fans Scouting Report to runs, I got 1, -1, 8.0, and 4.0 for each year. It's not the differences in numbers I'm concerned about. That's to be expected, especially since converting the FSR to runs is more of an art than a science. What is striking is the difference in "trend" of the Fans having his best years according to UZR as his worst years. But that's why we use multiple data points. I weighted regressed UZR 75% and the FSR 25%. The estimate I come up with for Bartlett's defense is +3 runs above average per 162 games.

Baserunning: I don't always include this, but in Bartlett's case, it's worth adding in. I also want to get a chance to plug Dan Fox's EqBRR (basically baserunning linear weights above/below average) as implemented at Baseball Prospectus, which is the best baserunning statistic that I know of, despite the Bill James numbers that seem to get more publicly for some reason. Since steals are included in the version of wOBA I used here, I subtracted the EqSBR element from them. Although Bartlett was about average in 2006 and 2008, in 2007 he was about 2.5 runs above average from taking extra bases on hits, advancing on ground outs, etc., and is about 2 runs above average so far this season. My rough projection has his baserunning at about 2 runs above average per season.

Adding it all up: +7 hitting + 3 fielding +2 baserunning +7.5 positional adjustment +25 AL replacement level = 44.5 x 85% playing time = ~38 run above replacement, or 3.8 Wins Above Replacement (WAR).

No, he's not a .404 wOBA hitter. Not even close. But our model tells us that a shortstop with slightly above average defense and above average hitting is extremely valuable. Conservatively, that sort of player would cost almost $20 million a season on the free agent market. True, Bartlett will be 30 at the beginning of next season, so we might knock of half a win. But even if we go a bit further than that, and bring him all the way down to 3.0 WAR, that's still a $15 million a season player.

It will be interesting to see if the Rays and their (potential) suitors agree.