SB Nation - Evan Longoria

Fantasy Baseball: Raygu's MDC Mock Draft Results

raygu — Wed, 16 Dec 2009 20:00:28 -0000

by Mark J. Terrill - AP

25 days ago: FILE - In this Oct. 8, 2009, file photo, St. Louis Cardinals' Albert Pujols hits a single during the sixth inning of Game 2 of the National League division baseball series against the Los Angeles Dodgers, in Los Angeles. Pujols was unanimously voted National League MVP on Tuesday, Nov. 24, 2009, becoming the baseball first player to repeat since Barry Bonds won four in a row from 2001-04. (AP Photo/Mark J. Terrill, File)

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I participated, I use that term loosely, in a 12 Team Mixed League mock draft over at Mock Draft Central on Monday night. I missed alot of my picks because I was busy following the Roy Halladay trade rumors. But I made sure I made my fist three picks, as I was picking from the first position.

Here is how the first two rounds went:

R1 P1 Albert Pujols

R1 P2 Hanley Ramirez

R1 P3 Chase Utley

R1 P4 Alex Rodriguez

R1 P5 Ryan Braun

R1 P6 Mark Teixeira

R1 P7 Tim Lincecum

R1 P8 Matt Kemp

R1 P9 Prince Fielder

R1 P10 Miguel Cabrera

R1 P11 Evan Longoria

R1 P12 David Wright

The second round is after the jump:

R2 P1 Ian Kinsler

R2 P2 Justin Morneau

R2 P3 Ryan Howard

R2 P4 Joe Mauer

R2 P5 Carl Crawford

R2 P6 Grady Sizemore

R2 P7 Jacoby Ellsbury

R2 P8 Mark Reynolds

R2 P9 Jason Bay

R2 P10 Troy Tulowitzki

R2 P11 Zack Greinke

R2 P12 Justin Upton

With the first pick in round 3 I selected Matt Holliday.

I was surprised Upton and Holliday were still available that late in round 2.

Poll

What is more shcoking about Raygu's mock draft?

Interview with Derek Carty from The Hardball Times-Part 4

raygu — Thu, 03 Dec 2009 14:00:19 -0000

Here is the last part of the 4 part interview with Derek Carty from The Hardball Times. Derek provides some insight into his top 5 rankings and some early sleepers for 2010:

Fake Teams: Are there any statistics that you use to evaluate hitters or pitchers that aren't mainstream yet?

Derek Carty: Absolutely. As I've talked about a little bit already, there are some that aren't even super well-known in the sabermetric community because, well, I invented them myself and they aren't really readily available yet. I absolutely love CAPS, David Gassko's LIPS ERA is great, and True Home Runs for hitters is a favorite of mine as well. Chris Dutton and Peter Bendix's xBABIP is great too. And of course, things like BABIP and HR/FB and LOB% aren't really mainstream, but they are pretty well-known in the sabermetric community and are certainly important to look at.

More after the jump:

Fake Teams: Do you prefer auction leagues or straight draft leagues? Mixed or NL/AL-only leagues?

Derek Carty: Auction, without a doubt. It gives everyone a chance at every player and, I feel, allows you to be more creative with how you construct your team and with how you plan your strategy. I used to be a 100% in favor of mixed leagues over AL/NL-only (in theory), although LABR has swayed my opinion a bit (it was the first AL/NL-only league I ever played in). Still, I would have to lean towards something like a 14 or 15-team mixed league, given my druthers. I just feel that one or two big injuries to an AL or NL-only team can derail any hope of a championship, in some instances, and we really are in the infantile stages of trying to predict injuries, so it's not as if some of us can even gain much of a competitive advantage in the area. I was actually quite lucky in LABR this year when it came to the health of my players, which has surely colored my opinion of this league setup a bit. Aside from losing Ramon Hernandez for most of the year and Raul Ibanez, Rich Harden, and Carlos Ruiz for a few weeks, my team stayed pretty healthy. In other leagues, I wasn't as lucky. In the FSIC, for instance, Jose Reyes killed us (although we did manage to finish in second despite a Reyes/Garrett Atkins combo for our first two picks). I think a 15-team mixed league is a pretty good depth and minimizes the amount of luck involved.

Fake Teams: An early look at 2010-who is your top 5 players in NL-only leagues? AL-only leagues? Mixed?

Derek Carty: This'll have to be very early since I haven't completed my projections yet or really tried to make any 2010 predictions, but here's how I'm currently feeling (completely subjectively and without seeing some of the more in-depth numbers I like to look at).
NL: 1) Albert Pujols, 2) Hanley Ramirez, 3) Chase Utley, 4) Ryan Braun, 5) Matt Kemp
AL: 1) A-Rod, 2) Mark Teixeira, 3) Miguel Cabrera, 4)Evan Longoria, 5) Joe Mauer
Mixed: 1) Albert Pujols, 2) Hanley Ramirez, 3) Chase Utley, 4) A-Rod, 5) Ryan Braun

Fake Teams: If you have done this analysis, who are a few sleepers for 2010?

Derek Carty: I haven't really done this analysis yet, so I'll probably have some very different names when asked in a month or two. For now, let's go with Ian Stewart, Julio Borbon, Eric Young Jr., Dallas McPherson (consider him the next Russell Branyan if he finds playing time), Koji Uehara (potential Baltimore closer, though he could succeed as a SP as well), Brett Andersen, and Jorge de la Rosa. And, of course, whether someone is truly a sleeper or a value pick is entirely dependent on context. He'll only derive value if you take him in a round later than where you believe he truly belongs.

Fake Teams thanks Derek for taking the time to answer these questions for our readers.

Raygu's MDC Mock Draft Results

raygu — Tue, 01 Dec 2009 20:30:11 -0000

I participated in a mock draft over at Mock Draft Central today and here is how the first two rounds went:

Round 1

5. Matt Kemp

6. Ryan Braun

7. Chase Utley

8. Miguel Cabrera

9. Prince Fielder

10. Ryan Howard

11. Evan Longoria

12. David Wright

Round 2 after the jump:

Round 2

1. Joe Mauer

5. Ian Kinsler

10, Jason Bay

11. Victor Martinez

12. Zack Greinke

This draft definitely didn't go as I expected, and I don't think there were alot of "autopicks", but I could be wrong.

Poll

Which pick was more surprising?

Teixeira at 4

42 votes

Wright at 12

27 votes

Rollins at 21

22 votes

91 votes | Poll has closed

Fantasy Baseball: Early Mock Draft- Round 2, Pick 5.

Ian, yo — Tue, 01 Dec 2009 03:41:23 -0000

More photos » by MIKE CARLSON - AP

4 months ago: Tampa Bay Rays' Evan Longoria, right, is congratulated by Ben Zobrist after Longoria hit a home run in the fifth inning of a baseball game against the New York Yankees Tuesday, July 28, 2009, in St. Petersburg, Fla. (AP Photo/Mike Carlson)

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Evan Longoria. 3B, Tampa Bay

At only 24 years old, Longoria has two years of major league time and already has hit a combined 60 home runs and 167 runs, 198 RBI.

Longoria made steps to better himself in 2009 by posting a BB% of 11% which is an increase from 9.3% in 2008 and a drop in K% from 27.2% in 2008 to 24% in 2009. If Longoria were to improve even more in 2010, you could see a bump in runs, RBI, home runs and average as well as OPS. Longoria's a bigger guy and doesn't have the speed to become a five category producer, but he does have one thing others his age don't....Consistency.

Bill James has Longoria projected to put up a slash line of .287/.370/.548 and an OPS over .900. He's also penciling Longoria in for 37 home runs, 106 runs, 120 RBI and 9 home runs. While James tends to project younger players (2009 projected Ryan Braun to hit 44 home runs: actually hit 32.) a bit optimistically, I think 37 home runs are definitely within reach for Longoria and think you should draft him and be happy with 30-40 home runs and over 100 runs and RBIs. If you are in keeper or dynasty leagues, Longoria is arguably the top 3B in the league and could easily be bumped into the first round next year. Now if only fantasy baseball incorporated UZR and other defensive metrics.

Fantasy Baseball: BP's Eric Seidman's Top 10 Fantasy Players

raygu — Thu, 26 Nov 2009 20:00:13 -0000

by Nick Wass - AP

2 months ago: Washington Nationals' Ryan Zimmerman, right, rounds the bases as he is greeted by third base coach Pat Listach (4) after Zimmerman hit a three-run home run during the sixth inning of a baseball game against the Los Angeles Dodgers, Wednesday, Sept. 23, 2009, in Washington. The Nationals won 5-4. (AP Photo/Nick Wass)

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In his chat yesterday over at Baseball Prospectus, Eric Seidman was asked the following:

Tex Premium Lager (Jersey): Even More Blatant Fantasy Keeper Question (tm): In no order, who are the 10 most valuable position players for the next few years? Most seem obvious (Pujols, Hanley, Utley, etc.) but I'd like your take on the matter. Maybe someone (you?) can take over Nate Silver's top 50 list, which was one of my favorite articles each year.
Eric Seidman: I'll list the guys that instantly came to mind as that likely says a lot about their attributes: Pujols, Mauer, Hanley, Utley, Tulowitzki, J Upton, Longoria, Zimmerman, Wright, Braun. Those aren't in order and there are definitely others to think about.

So, he answered this question off the top of his head, but he included David Wright in his top 10 fantasy players for "the next few years". Am I the only one who thinks Wright shouldn't be in the top 10? He leaves himself an out with the last sentence in his response, so I will give him the benefit of the doubt.

What surprised me was including Troy Tulowitzki and Ryan Zimmerman in his top 10. Granted both players are very good all around players-offensively and defensively-but are they top 10? I like Zimmerman alot as well, and could consider him should he duplicate his 2009 season in 2010. As for Tulo, I don't see him going 30-20 again in 2010.

Which player would you take out of his top 10?

Poll

Which player should NOT be in the top 10 fantasy player list for the next few years?

Ryan Zimmerman

33 votes

David Wright

29 votes

Troy Tulowitzki

40 votes

102 votes | Poll has closed

Clearing Something Up About Offseason Rumors

Jeff — Wed, 25 Nov 2009 20:39:51 -0000

Over the coming weeks, you're going to hear a lot about how certain teams are listening to offers for certain players, and how certain other players are untouchable. We've already been told that the Tigers are listening to offers for Edwin Jackson, the Blue Jays are listening to offers for Roy Halladay, the Marlins are listening to offers for Ricky Nolasco, and on and on. Meanwhile, the Braves supposedly aren't listening to offers for Tommy Hanson. The media is going to report that some big names are available for trade, while other big names are not.

Ignore all that stuff. It's meaningless.

Here's the bottom line: every team will listen to offers for every player at any time. To listen to an offer doesn't mean you have to initiate anything or even actively participate in conversation. All listening to an offer entails is holding the phone to your ear while another guy talks to you. That's it. It's a zero-risk activity, with the possible upside that the GM on the other end will offer more than your player is worth. And when you're faced with an all-upside/no-downside opportunity, it doesn't make sense to turn it down. Of course the Tigers are listening to offers for Curtis Granderson. Why wouldn't they? What benefit would there be to telling other teams not to bother?

And as far as a situation like Hanson's is concerned...the only difference here is that the team is being more private. If someone were to call the Braves and make an offer, Frank Wren wouldn't tell him to shut up. Just in case, he'd hear him out. He'd hear him out, because there's no such thing as "untouchable" - for any given player in the league, there exists a trade package that could lure him away, and as such every player is always available for the right price. It's just that some have such a high price that the odds of their being traded are effectively zero. Tommy Hanson almost certainly isn't going to be traded, because he's really good and really cheap and really young, but as long as you can envision a scenario in which Andrew Friedman gets desperate for pitching and offers, I dunno, Evan Longoria, then Hanson isn't untouchable. He's just expensive.

If a team is said to be listening to offers for some of its big-name players, then that isn't news. That's always happening, whether it's reported or not. And if a team is said to not be listening to offers for some of its big-name players, that isn't news either, because they are listening, and only suggesting that they aren't to give their players and fans some peace of mind. Jack Zduriencik has indicated that Felix won't get dealt this winter, but do you really believe he's off the table entirely? Of course not. He's just trying to keep Felix content and the fans relieved. If someone calls and offers an incredible package, then Jack will be able to sell it as something the team simply couldn't pass up.

There's no benefit to making certain players untouchable. None. And though a lot of GMs do a lot of weird things, none of them are complete idiots. For the right price, everybody - everybody - is always available.

Fantasy Baseball: Early Mock Draft-Round 2, Pick 2

raygu — Wed, 25 Nov 2009 20:00:20 -0000

by Danny Moloshok - AP

3 months ago: Arizona Diamondbacks' Justin Upton, right, comes into the dugout after scoring after Augie Ojeda was walked by Los Angeles Dodgers pitcher James McDonald with the bases loaded during the 10th inning of a baseball game, Monday, Aug. 31, 2009, in Los Angeles. The Diamondbacks won 5-3. (AP Photo/Danny Moloshok)

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This was not an easy pick for me, as I considered Carl Crawford, Evan Longoria, Mark Teixeira and Mark Reynolds, but I couldn't get away from the upside of J-Up-Justin Upton.

Upton went 26-86-20-.300-..366-.532-.899 in 2009 while watching his K% drop from 34% in 2008 to 26% in 2009. His HR/FB% increased from 15.3% in 2008 to 18.8% in 2009 which coincided with a drop in his FB% from 41.9% in 2008 to 35.7% in 2009. Upton also increased his ISO, or isolated power, from .213 in 2008 to .232 in 2009. Should he be able to maintain his HR/FB% while increasing his FB%, he could easily hit 30 HRs in 2010. I think he can do better than that actually.

Upton not only provided fantasy owners with solid power, but he also contributed 20 SBs in 2009 after stealing only 1 bag in 2008. I think the speed is here to stay as the Diamondbacks struggled to score runs in 2009, and I think that trend continues in 2010. I expect Upton to steal between 20-25 bags in 2010.

Upton is capable of a 30-100-20-.300 season in 2010, and should be drafted accordingly.

Fantasy Baseball: Early Mock Draft-Round 1, Pick 10

raygu — Mon, 23 Nov 2009 14:15:09 -0000

More photos » by Morry Gash - AP

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With pick 10 in the first round, I pondered selecting Evan Longoria or Mark Reynolds, but decided to go with a true power hitter, Prince Fielder.

Fielder was second in the majors in HRs in 2009 as he went 46-141-.299-.412-.602-1.014, and approached 50 HRs for the second time in three years. He improved his BB/K% from 0.63 to 0.80 in 2009 as he increased his BB% from 12.5% in 2008 to 15.7% in 2009. He also increased his HR/FB% from 18.2% in 2008 to 23.1% in 2009.

If Fielder can maintain the high BB/K%, and slightly increase his HR/FB%, Prince can approach 50 HRs for the 3rd time in four seasons. With that said, Bill James predicts Prince will go 44-124-.286-.393-.574-.967 in 2010. James see a slight regression in Prince's OBP, but I have a feeling he can continue to show a solid eye at the plate.

Should Fielder continue to show an improved eye at the plate, Prince could exceed James prediction of 44-124 again in 2010. Milwaukee will need a bounce back season from outfielder Corey Hart and a solid sopphomore season from third baseman Casey McGehee to protect Fielder in the middle of the Brewers lineup, as well.

Poll

Will Prince Fielder hit 50 HRs in 2010?

Yes, his improved batting eye and HR/FB will stick.

29 votes

No, the lineup behind him is not very good.

27 votes

56 votes | Poll has closed

Gabe Kapler is Off the Bases like the Spiderman Logo

R.J. Anderson — Mon, 23 Nov 2009 10:00:11 -0000

by Jim Prisching - AP

I know the Spiderman joke doesn't entirely make sense other than my insistence on saying Kapler plays the field like a spider on acid ... but his arms here seem to support my theory on Kapler's arachnid nature.

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As hopefully everyone knows, WAR does not account for baserunning. Stolen bases and caught stealing are included, but stuff like advancing to third from first are not. I suppose you could call it a hidden value in player evaluation that even the best metric in the land is yet to fully encompass - for now at least - so rather than pretend it doesn't happen, or stone the people who point this out, let's look at the Rays baserunners to see who benefits and who does not.

Note that all of these statistics are way of Baseball-Reference.

First up, the number of times a batter is on first when a single is hit. I set the bar at 10 times because this seems to coincide nicely with 200 plate appearances received. Evan Longoria and B.J. Upton lead the pack and were amongst the team leaders in plate trips, so hey, it works out just fine. Amusingly, Upton lead the team with 37 occurrences; here are the rest of the qualifiers:

Player	1stS	1stS2	1stS3	Third%
B.J. Upton	37	27	10	27.03
Evan Longoria	34	23	11	32.35
Jason Bartlett	28	18	10	35.71
*Carl Crawford	27	19	8	29.63
*Carlos Pena	23	12	10	43.48
#Ben Zobrist	22	14	8	36.36
Pat Burrell	21	17	4	19.05
#Dioner Navarro	19	13	6	31.58
*Akinori Iwamura	17	14	3	17.65
#Willy Aybar	15	11	4	26.67
*Gabe Gross	14	9	5	35.71
Gabe Kapler	10	9	1	10

What does this chart tell you? For one, the number of times a runner was on first when a single was hit (1stS), then how many times that runner reached second on the play (1stS2), and how many times they reached third (1stS3). What follows thereafter is a column with the header "Third%". Essentially: the amount of times the runner reached third. Now, keep in mind this is not a perfect metric by any means. Context is important and something that lacks with such a small sample size. There's a real and almost certain chance that the distribution of batted ball degree varies strongly. By that I mean some players - a la Carlos Pena - may have experienced more hard hit balls than others - vis-a-vis Gabe Kapler -- that or smiles are the fuel for legs.

Pena and Gabe Gross really leap off the page. I think if we did a community scouting report on the best and worst baserunners those two might be near the bottom based on speed alone. Meanwhile, Akinori Iwamura would likely be near the top with Kapler, and here he is advancing to third less than Pat Burrell. Upton and Crawford are around a third of the time, which is less than Longoria, Bartlett (I think most would have him top three), Ben Zobrist, Dioner Navarro, and pretty close to Willy Aybar. I can't think of a reason why, except that the ability to steal the extra bag leads Tom Foley to hold them on plays deemed too close. The factoid that dismisses that theory is that he literally does it for nobody else if such is the case, and that makes no sense.

Now let's shift gears a bit and look at the situations in which the runner was on first when a double was hit. From there we're seeing whether they scored or reached third - the minimum advancement:

Player	1stD	1stD3	1stDH	Score%
B.J. Upton	6	3	3	50
Evan Longoria	14	11	3	21.43
Jason Bartlett	16	9	7	43.75
*Carl Crawford	10	6	4	40
*Carlos Pena	8	6	2	25
#Ben Zobrist	9	5	4	44.44
Pat Burrell	9	8	1	11.11
#Dioner Navarro	10	8	2	20
*Akinori Iwamura	3	1	2	66.67
#Willy Aybar	7	7	0	0
*Gabe Gross	4	2	2	50
Gabe Kapler	2	2	0	0

Now the sample size is really too small to say with any trace of confidence. Iwamura, Upton, and Bartlett lead the team, while Crawford and Zobrist aren't too shabby either. Guys like Navarro, Aybar, Pena, and Burrell are low on the totem pole as well. Nothing else stands out.

Our final situation involves the runner being on second when a single is hit and whether they scored or not:

Player	2ndS	2ndS3	2ndSH	Score%
B.J. Upton	20	7	12	60
Evan Longoria	15	5	10	66.67
Jason Bartlett	22	12	10	45.45
*Carl Crawford	24	3	20	83.33
*Carlos Pena	15	6	9	60
#Ben Zobrist	18	6	11	61.11
Pat Burrell	9	6	3	33.33
#Dioner Navarro	9	2	7	77.77
*Akinori Iwamura	18	8	9	50
#Willy Aybar	2	1	1	50
*Gabe Gross	11	9	1	9.09
Gabe Kapler	9	4	3	33.33

So here's where the speed wins out. Crawford is fantastic. Longoria, Upton, and Zobrist are good. Navarro morphs into a rollie pollie when needed, and Gabe Gross is atrocious at it. I would've expected Bartlett to be higher, but them's the breaks.

What does all of this mean? Well, if you use Dan Fox's EQBR metric - by the way, he's now in the Pittsburgh front office - then unsurprisingly Crawford and Bartlett rate well, and .... Gabe Kapler is the worst baserunner on the team by nearly two full runs.

For all the (deserved) talk about Kapler's headiness and managerial experience, is he really the worst baserunner on the team? This seems counter intuitive on multiple levels. Kapler's body type resembles that of a safety more than a linebacker or defensive end. He appears to have quick feet. He doesn't fit the profile of a laggard given his defensive prowess either. So what's going on here?

Well, random fluctuation it appears. I took each of Kapler's individual seasons as a baserunner and ran the same percentages on them. The sexiness of having data dating back over a decade is appealing and great, but do you think 23-year-old Kapler's ability to go second to home tells us much about 33-year-old Kapler's ability? Maybe an extremely small amount, but what we really need to focus on is his last three seasons. Given that managerial break in 2007, we're looking at a period of four years and comparing them to 2009. The inherent small sample size issues get in the way again, but take a look at the contrast that exists:

Time	1stS	1stS2	1stS3	Third%	1stD	1stD3	1stDH	Score%	2ndS	2ndS3	2ndSH	Score%
3 Yr	24	19	4	17	9	5	4	44	18	7	10	56
2009	10	9	1	10	2	2	0	0	9	4	3	33

Kapler rated better in each of three categories in the previous seasons. Barring some inside information that I'm not privy to, I'll go ahead and chalk this up to mostly poor luck. If you really wanted to dive into this data pile you could find the league averages and do a Marcels type projection to get super accurate figures, but know this, the gain is minimal. The spread of baseruning talent simply isn't that thick. It results in about a win differential from the worst team to the best. That's nothing to sneeze at and I'm not saying stack your team with nine Pat Burrell types ... unless they get on base at extremely high clips, then yes, stack them up and watch the runs pile up.

Again, many thanks to B-Ref for the data.

What Can Be Learned From the AL MVP Voting?

Jeff Zimmerman (TucsonRoyal) — Sat, 21 Nov 2009 15:40:29 -0000

More photos » by Reinhold Matay - AP

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On Monday afternoon, I fully expect Joe Mauer to win his first MVP award after finishing sixth in 2006 and fourth last year. Joe led the AL in batting average while hitting for respectable power (28 HRs) in only 138 games, most of which were as a catcher. He led the Twins into the postseason after they trailed by three games with only four games left, thereby forcing and winning a playoff game with Detroit.

Other than Mauer winning, I expect Mark Teixeria to finish high in the voting after leading the league in HRs and RBIs (categories that have traditionally been important to voters). I also expect Derek Jeter to finish high even though he doesn't have great traditional stats this season (.334 AVG, 18 HR and 107 runs scored). He did have one of his best years with a 7.4 WAR value, his highest since Fangraphs began keeping track and his third-highest total when compared to Rally's WAR ranking.

Truthfully, I have no problem giving the award to Mauer. He had a great season and helped the Twins to the playoffs. The real question with today's vote, to me anyway, is where do Zack Greinke and Ben Zobrist end up in the rankings?

Using WAR values as a guide, both Zack (9.4 WAR) and Ben (8.6 WAR) had a better season than Joe (8.4 WAR). The problem is that the mainstream media is barely touting if at all Greinke or Zobrist. Going to MLB.com, Zack gets an honorable mention while Ben gets no mention (though four of Ben's teammates got mentioned: Evan Longoria, Jason Bartlett, Carl Crawford and Carlos Pena). At cbssportsline.com and USAToday.com they have no mention of either Greinke or Zobrist.

Two groups of internet voters have released their results. SBN, our parent website, had a vote and Zack came in sixth overall, while Ben came in second. When the Internet Baseball Awards released their results, Zack came in fourth and Ben came in sixth. I really don't expect either of these players to finish as that high in the final votes with the BBWAA, even though no two players in the AL did more to help their team win games this last season.

Let's look at how Zack and Ben final voting placement can say something about the makeup and thought process of the BBWAA.

Zack Greinke - Do pitchers even matter in the MVP voting?

Here is a little background on how pitchers have done in the MVP voting:

Since 1956, when the Cy Young Award was created, a pitcher has won the MVP Award 8 times or 8% percent of the time. Before the Cy Young was created, pitchers won the award about 1 in 5 times (19%).
The last pitcher to win the MVP was Dennis Eckersley in 1992.
Since 1992, the average final position for the top pitcher vote getter is 8.4, with Pedro Martinez about winning the award in 1999 by finishing with only 3% less vote than Ivan Rodriguez.

There is not much precedent for MVP voters voting for pitchers, especially ones with 16-8 records. The average finish of the top pitcher in the MVP voting has been between the 8th and 9th spot, so this makes a good dividing line to see if the writers noticed Zack's great season (despite the horrible defense and run support he had all season). Zack had the 31st highest ranked season ever in ERA+ with 205, which is the highest total since 2003 when Pedro Martinez finished with an ERA+ of 210.

If Zack finishes eighth or higher, hats off to the voters. If ninth or lower, shame on voters.

Ben Zobrist - Do name familiarity and defense matter in the MVP voting?

Before the season, many people were familiar with the final MVP candidates, but few were familiar with Ben, and the few that knew of him didn't expect great production. Offensively, his 2009 season was nothing to laugh about (9th in the AL in Runs Created), but his defense is where he separated himself from the others for the top WAR values for positional players. He had a UZR rating of 26.4 which was good for 2nd best among all position players in the AL.

The question is, "Will any of this production really matter." Even though the Internet voters gave Ben quite a bit of love, I can see the BBWAA giving him a cold shoulder. I would be surprised to see him break the top 10. I really want to see the percentage of voters that put him in their top 5. This will give a nice understanding of the percentage of voters that look at and use WAR (or similar metrics) to compare players. If the percentage of voters that put Ben in the top 5 is above 10%, I will be amazingly surprised.

---

The award season for MLB is a nice time to look back at the the players that had a great season. The problem is that sometimes players that should receive recognition don't.