SB Nation - Chan Ho Park

Free Agent Reliever Valuation

Eric Simon — Mon, 23 Nov 2009 18:21:18 -0000

Wins Above Replacement is a little iffy for relief pitchers, but nevertheless here is a rudimentary WAR valuation of some of the more attractive free agent relievers. The '5-3-1 WAR' is a weighted average of the past three seasons.

Player	2010 Age	WAR 2009	WAR 2008	WAR 2007	5-3-1 WAR	WAR $
Rafael Betancourt (A)	35	1.4	0.2	3.2	1.2	5.4
Rafael Soriano (A)	30	2	0.1	0.4	1.2	5.4
Trevor Hoffman (A)	42	1.5	0.1	1.3	1.0	4.6
Kiko Calero	35	1.4	0.1	0.2	0.8	3.8
Jose Valverde (A)	32	0.7	0.8	1.4	0.8	3.7
Brandon Lyon	30	0.7	0.7	1.5	0.8	3.6
Mike Gonzalez (A)	32	0.9	0.1	0.3	0.6	2.6
Russ Springer	41	0.4	0.5	1.2	0.5	2.4
J.J. Putz	33	0.1	0.6	2.3	0.5	2.3
Chan Ho Park	37	0.7	0.3	-0.1	0.5	2.2

It's hard to justify giving up a high second-round pick (somewhere around #45-50 overall) to sign any relief pitcher, let alone a setup man, so while Rafael Soriano and Mike Gonzalez may be two of the better relievers available, their price tags combined with the compensatory draft pick penalty renders them far less appealing than they might otherwise be. Of course, if the Mets sign another Type-A free agent -- Matt Holliday, e.g. -- then they'd be forfeiting a third-round pick instead.

Brandon Lyon, Kiko Calero, and, yes, even Chan Ho Park, are reasonable alternatives to the Type-As on the board. Lyon in particular is intriguing for his effectiveness against lefties (career .766 OPS against righties; .765 against lefties). He's not a great pitcher, but he's pretty good against everyone. Calero has more dramatic lefty/righty splits, but has far better strikeout rates (albeit with worse walk rates) than Lyon.

Park was very effective coming out of the bullpen for the Phillies last season, posting a 3.25 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 38 appearances, allowing just nine extra-base hits -- all doubles -- along the way. The zero homeruns were probably an aberration for Park, who has been an extreme flyball pitcher throughout his career.

Any of these three -- Lyon, Calero, Park -- could be a reasonable addition to the 2010 bullpen on a 1-2 year deal at $2-3 million per, give or take.

Billingsley, Dodgers Go For Sweep

Eric Stephen — Sun, 13 Sep 2009 16:00:31 -0000

More photos » by Eric Risberg - AP

Brad Penny has won both of his starts wearing a Giants' uniform.

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The Dodgers face an old friend today, as Brad Penny takes the hill wearing the colors of the enemy. Penny won 46 games in Dodger blue, but didn't leave on the best of terms last year. Dodger third base coach Larry Bowa was particularly critical of Penny, questioning his work ethic on his way out the door. However, any hopes of a Penny/Bowa feud today were squashed on Saturday, as the two had a meeting to patch things up, per Dylan Hernandez of the LA Times.

Penny, who was released by Boston after putting up a 5.61 ERA (though his FIP was lower, at 4.59) in 24 starts, has excelled in his two starts back in the National League. Penny has a 1.20 ERA over 15 innings with the Giants, winning both starts. His FIP is not quite that low, although still solid at 3.33, but the sample isn't big enough from which to draw any conclusions, other than that so far Penny has pitched better since leaving the American League.

The Dodgers have faced off against pitchers formerly in their organization five times this season, and are just 2-3 in those games. Ted Lilly, Derek Lowe, and Chan Ho Park have combined for five quality starts in those five starts.

For the Dodgers, Chad Billingsley toes the rubber in need of a win. He hasn't pitched badly of late, with a 3.83 ERA and a 3.76 FIP since August 1, but a strong performance today would be a welcome sight. Clayton Kershaw is on the shelf with a separated right shoulder, and Randy Wolf is on hold with a sore elbow, although he might pitch Tuesday. Now would be a nice time for Billingsley to pitch seven innings or more, something he hasn't done since July 5.

On the whole, the entire Dodger pitching staff has been amazing of late. They have allowed five runs only twice in their last 31 games, and in both of those games the fifth run didn't come until extra innings. So we're looking at a run of the Dodgers not giving up more than four runs in regulation for 31 straight games, with an ERA of 2.59 (and a 3.50 FIP) over that span.

James Loney, who has homered in three of his last five games, is on fire in September. Loney is hitting .390/.435/.634 for the month, with 10 runs batted in in 11 games, and currently has a seven-game hitting streak working.

With a win last night, the Dodgers beat their 2008 win total, with 19 games left to play. The Dodgers are now 27 games over .500, matching their high-water mark of the season. For them to reach a new high today, doing this would be nice:

**********

Check out Xeifrank's simulation of today's game here.

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Get your guesses in for our today's "One, Two, Three Strikes, You're Out," here.

Game Time: 1:05pm

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Disneyland penny picture courtesy of user ninetyonepercent on Flickr.

Phillies vs Orioles: June 19-21

Matt Swartz — Fri, 19 Jun 2009 22:00:13 -0000

More photos » by Tom Mihalek - AP

Cole Hamels will pitch Sunday for the Phillies. (AP Photo/Tom Mihalek)

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After a disappointing sweep at the hands of the Blue Jays, the Philadelphia Phillies (36-28) still maintain a three-game lead over the Mets thanks to this weekend's opponent, the Baltimore Orioles (29-37), who took two out of three from the Mets. The Phillies have three games this weekend against the O's, who have a lot of promising young stars, but still struggle to compete in a tough division. The Orioles really do fall short with their pitching, although their young hitters are dangerous. In addition to reliable veterans Brain Roberts, and Aubrey Huff, the Orioles have Nick Markakis, who is quietly turning into one of the better hitters in the American League, Adam Jones, the steal of the Erik Bedard trade who his mashing this year, and the Orioles very own Messiah to combat ours, Matt Wieters. Wieters finally hit his first homerun this week against the Mets, though reports are that if he does not get the day off Sunday against Cole Hamels, the planet might explode. Either that or at least one of the websites linked in the previous sentence will be at least an exaggeration.

The Phillies send Antonio Bastardo out Friday night, looking to bounce back after his first poor start of the season. Bastardo allowed five runs in the first inning before a rain delay ended his night against the Red Sox. The Orioles reply with Rich Hill, who has been the victim of control problems, and if it were not for some luck on flyballs landing on the correct side of the fence, Hill's ERA would be in worse shape. Hill does not have a huge split , being mostly a fastball/curveball pitcher, so the Phillies should not have too much trouble with him.

The Orioles will send out RHP Brad Bergeson in Saturday night's game. Bergeson is a contact pitcher who gets a good number of groundballs. Taking good swings against him will be the key. The Phillies send J.A. Happ to the mound against him. Happ looked a little better than what he is after initially joining the rotation, though his last two starts have left something to be desired.

The Orioles send RHP Jeremy Guthrie to the mound on Sunday afternoon. Guthrie has had some bad luck this year, but is pretty much an average pitcher overall, in terms of control, command, and groundball tendencies. The Phillies send ace Cole Hamels to the mound on Sunday. American League teams have done their best with him this year by fouling off pitches and building up his pitch counts, and getting a shot against the bullpen. He'll try to go deeper into Sunday's game than he has in recent starts.

MATCHUPS

Friday, 7:05-- Antonio Bastardo (L) vs. Rich Hill (L)

Saturday, 7:05-- J.A. Happ (L) vs. Brad Bergeson (R)

Sunday, 1:35-- Cole Hamels (L) vs. Jeremy Guthrie (R)

After the jump, I preview the players, their splits, and the matchups.

ORIOLES

LINE UP

1) 2B Brian Roberts (S): .287/.352/.445

projection average (proj): .285/.365/.425
projected BB/PA (bb): 11%
projected K/AB (k): 16%
career gb% (gb): 38%
career infield flies/flyball (iff): 7%
career infield hits/groundball (ifh): 5%
batting average on balls in play tendencies (babip): projected around .325; i have him .318
swing/contact/zone facts (s/c/z): good eye, good patience, good contact, sees a decent amount of strikes
righty/lefty (r/l): .802 vs .705 ops; 1.3 vs 1.4 k/bb
home/away (h/a): .759 vs .786 ops; 1.2 vs 1.3 k/bb
pull/opposite (p/o): slight pull hitter from both sides
anything else (other): better against groundball pitchers

2) RF Nick Markakis (L): .293/.356/.464

proj: .300/.380/.485
bb: 11%
k: 18%
gb: 46%
iff: 6%
ifh: 6%
babip: projected around .335; i have him at .329.
s/c/z: okay eye, good patience, above average contact
r/l: .888 vs .753 ops; 1.3 vs 2.1 k/bb
h/a: .867 vs .827 ops; 1.6 vs 1.4 k/bb
p/o: spreads ball around pretty evenly
other: much better against finesse pitcher

3) CF Adam Jones (R): .312/.368/.540

proj: .275/.325/.445
bb: 6%
k: 23%
gb: 46%
iff: 12%
ifh: 9%
babip: projected around .325, but i have him at .306; my system is probably conservative since there isn't much data on him
s/c/z: impatient, bad eye, below average contact
r/l: .768 vs .729 ops; 6.1 vs 2.7 k/bb
h/a: .760 vs .754 ops; 5.6 vs 3.7 k/bb
p/o: somewhat of a pull hitter
other: none

4) 1B Aubrey Huff (L): .272/.335/.451

proj: .280/.345/.470
bb: 8.5%
k: 15%
gb: 45%
iff: 11%
ifh: 4%
babip: projected around .295; i have him around .299.
s/c/z: decent eye, decent contact
r/l: .856 vs .745 ops; 1.5 vs 2.2 k/bb
h/a: .839 vs .808 ops; 1.6 vs 1.8 k/bb
p/o: pull hitter
other: none

5) 3B Melvin Mora (R): .277/.333/.339

proj: .270/.330/.425
bb: 8%
k: 17%
gb: 39%
iff: 11%
ifh: 7%
babip: i have him at .298 which is about where other systems have him.
s/c/z: some patience and okay eye, pretty good contact
r/l: .786 vs .816 ops; 2.0 vs 1.3 k/bb
h/a: .806 vs .782 ops; 1.6 vs 2.0 k/bb
p/o: pull hitter
other: none

6) DH Luke Scott (L): .306/.389/.594

proj: .260/.345/.480
bb: 10%
k: 22%
gb: 39%
iff: 11%
ifh: 5%
babip: most systems have him around .295; i have him at .286
s/c/z: okay eye but impatient, mediocre contact, sees a lot of strikes
r/l: .874 vs .850 ops; 1.7 vs 2.2 k/bb
h/a: .896 vs .841 ops; 1.5 vs 2.2 k/bb
p/o: pull hitter
other: none

7) C Matt Wieters (S): .259/.298/.407

proj: .295/.365/.485
bb: 11%
k: 19%
gb: 47% in minors
iff: 7% in minors
ifh: ?
babip: projected around .320
s/c/z: good eye, somewhat patient, below average contact
r/l: seems pretty good both ways in minors, but better babip vs lhp
h/a: not enough info
p/o: ?
other: none

8) LF Nolan Riemold (R): .283/.372/.525

proj: .250/.320/.430
bb: 9%
k: 21%
gb: 51%
iff: 20%
ifh: ?
babip: projected around .290
s/c/z: somewhat patient, average contact, pretty good eye
r/l: .870 vs 1.010 in minors
h/a: not enough info
p/o: ?
other: none

9) SS Robert Andino (R): .252/.292/.313

proj: .240/.295/.360
bb: 6%
k: 23%
gb: 54%
iff: 12%
ifh: 5%
babip: projected all over the place, about .300 overall
s/c/z: not a great eye, not particularly patient, below average contact
r/l: .533 vs .594 ops; 3.4 vs 8.5 k/bb
h/a: .614 vs .488 ops; 4.5 vs 3.7 k/bb
p/o: opposite field hitter
other: none

BENCH

C Greg Zaun (S): .209/.315/.295

proj: .250/.340/.390
bb: 12%
k: 16%
gb: 43%
iff: 14%
ifh: 4%
babip: projected around .265
s/c/z: patient with a good eye, above average contact
r/l: .722 vs .733 ops; 1.2 vs 0.9 k/bb
h/a: .734 vs .715 ops; 1.1 vs 1.1 k/bb
p/o: slight pull hitter as righty, pull hitter as lefty
other: none

OF Felix Pie (L): .202/.279/.319

proj: .260/.315/.400
bb: 6.5%
k: 21%
gb: 46%
iff: 15%
ifh: 6%
babip: projected around .315
s/c/z: somewhat patient without a great eye, pretty good contact
r/l: .675 vs .278 ops; 3.2 vs 3.4 k/bb
h/a: .609 vs .610 ops; 2.8 vs 3.6 k/bb
p/o: pull hitter
other: none

DH Ty Wigginton (R): .241/.280/.380

proj: .270/.335/.470
bb: 7.5%
k: 20%
gb: 44%
iff: 9%
ifh: 7%
babip: i project him at .304, which is about where other systems have him
s/c/z: impatient, okay eye, decent contact
r/l: .749 vs .858 ops; 3.0 vs 1.6 k/bb
h/a: .809 vs .751 ops; 2.5 vs 2.6 k/bb
p/o: definite pull hitter
other: none

IF Oscar Salazar (R): .300/.300/.300

proj: .270/.330/.445
bb: 7%
k: 16%
gb: 42%
iff: 14%
ifh: 11%
babip: projected around .300
s/c/z: good eye, patient, slightly above average contact
r/l: .959 vs .596 ops; 1.0 vs 1.6 k/bb
h/a: not enough info
p/o: slight pull hitter
other: none

ROTATION

FRIDAY OPPONENT: Rich Hill (L): 5.81 ERA, 6.5 BB/9, 7.9 K/9, 0.3 HR/9, 4.09 FIP, 33%

proj avg: 5.00 ERA, 4.5 BB/9, 7.5 K/9, 1.2 HR/9
gb: 35%
pitches: 59% fb, 35% cb, 6% ch
r/l: .728 vs .651; 2.3 vs 1.9 k/bb
h/a: .713 vs .713; 2.2 vs 2.1 k/bb

Hill vs Phillies:

Feliz: 3/14, 2 HR, 1 BB, 4 K
Rollins: 3/8, 1 2B, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K, 1 HBP
Bruntlett: 1/6, 1 2B, 0 BB, 2 K
Howard: 1/6, 1 2B, 0 BB, 4 K
Utley: 2/4, 1 HR, 1 BB, 0 K, 1 HBP
Victorino: 0/5, 1 BB, 1 K
Coste: 0/3, 0 BB, 1 K
Ibanez: 0/3, 0 BB, 1 K
Ruiz: 0/2, 1 BB, 0 K

SATURDAY OPPONENT: Brad Bergesen (R): 3.79 ERA, 2.1 BB/9, 4.2 K/9, 1.1 HR/9, 4.62 FIP, 55% GB

proj avg: 5.70 ERA, 2.6 BB/9, 3.7 K/9, 1.5 HR/9
gb: 56%
pitches: 67% fb, 23% sl, 9% ch, 0.4% cb
r/l: .775 vs .736 ops; 4.2 vs 1.2 k/bb
h/a: .777 vs .726 ops; 4.4 vs 0.8 k/bb

Bergesen: has not played any Phillies

SUNDAY OPPONENT: Jeremy Guthrie (R): 5.42 ERA, 2.6 BB/9, 5.8 K/9, 1.8 HR/9, 5.45 FIP, 38% GB

proj avg: 4.30 ERA, 3.0 BB/9, 6.0 K/9, 1.1 HR/9
gb: 43%
pitches: 64% fb, 18% sl, 11% ch, 6% cb
r/l: .733 vs .761 ops; 2.3 vs 2.0 k/bb
h/a: .788 vs .696 ops; 2.4 vs 1.8 k/bb

Guthrie vs Phillies:

Stairs: 3/18, 1 HR, 1 BB, 6 K
Ibanez: 3/13, 1 2B, 1 HR, 2 BB (2 IBB), 2 K, 1 HBP
Bako: 0/3, 0 BB, 2 K

NOT FACING US: Koji Uehara (R): 4.30 ERA, 1.8 BB/9, 6.8 K/9, 0.9 HR/9, 3.43 FIP, 29% GB

proj avg: 4.60 ERA, 1.7 BB/9, 6.1 K/9, 1.6 HR/9
gb: 30%
pitches: 57% fb, 32% sf, 6% ct, 3% ch, 2% ct
r/l: .715 vs .760 ops; 2.6 vs 5.0 k/bb
h/a: not enough info

Uehara: has not faced any Phillies

NOT FACING US: Jason Berken (R): 6.84 ERA, 3.4 BB/9, 5.5 K/9, 0.7 HR/9, 4.21 FIP, 32% GB

proj avg: 5.35 ERA, 3.4 BB/9, 5.3 K/9, 1.3 HR/9
gb: 49% in minors
pitches: 60% fb, 17% ch, 14% sl, 9% cb
r/l: slightly better at avoiding contact against rhb but wilder too
h/a: not enough info

Berken: has not played any Phillies:

BULLPEN

CL George Sherrill (L): 2.45 ERA, 2.8 BB/9, 8.1 K/9, 1.0 HR/9, 3.73 FIP, 26% GB

proj avg: 3.90 ERA, 4.6 BB/9, 9.5 K/9, 0.9 HR/9
gb: 32%
pitches: 72% fb, 27% sl, 1% ch
r/l: .773 vs .506 ops; 1.1 vs 4.7 k/bb
h/a: .672 vs .627 ops; 2.3 vs 2.1 k/bb

Sherrill vs Phillies:

Stairs: 1/3, 1 2B, 1 BB, 1 K
Ibanez; 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K

Jim Johnson (R): 2.87 ERA, 3.2 BB/9, 6.3 K/9, 0.6 HR/9, 3.64 FIp, 54% GB

proj avg: 4.20 ERA, 3.6 BB/9, 6.0 K/9, 0.9 HR/9
gb: 56%
pitches: 79% fb, 12% cb, 9% ch
r/l: .662 vs .612 ops; 2.1 vs 0.9 k/bb
h/a: .663 vs .615 ops; 1.2 vs 1.5 k/bb

Johnson vs Phillies:

Stairs: 0/1, 1 BB (IBB), 0 K

Danys Baez (R): 3.03 ERA, 3.5 BB/9, 5.8 K/9, 0.8 HR/9, 61% GB, 4.22 FIP

proj avg: 4.70 ERA, 3.6 BB/9, 5.5 K/9, 1.1 HR/9
gb: 44%
pitches: 60% fb, 31% sf, 8% cb, 1% ct, 0.2% sl
r/l: .648 vs .759 ops; 2.1 vs 1.6 k/bb
h/a: .701 vs .705 ops; 2.0 vs 1.6 k/bb

Baez vs Phillies:

Ibanez: 0/4, 2 BB, 2 K
Feliz: 0/5, 0 BB, 2 K
Rollins: 3/5, 1 2B, 0 BB, 1 K
Stairs: 0/4, 0 BB, 0 K
Howard: 0/1, 2 BB, 1 K
Dobbs: 0/1, 1 BB, 1 K
Utley: 2 BB
Victorino: 0/1, 1 BB, 1 K
Werth: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K

Alberto Castillo (L): 3.86 ERA, 7.7 BB/9, 3.9 K/9, 0.0 HR/9, 6.07 FIP, 33% GB

proj avg: 4.60 ERA, 3.4 BB/9, 6.8 K/9, 1.1 HR/9
gb: 44%
pitches: 58% fb, 36% sl, 6% ch, 1% cb
r/l: .723 vs .762 ops; 2.1 vs 1.8 k/bb
h/a: .564 vs .908 ops; 2.8 vs 1.4 k/bb

Castillo vs Phillies:

Stairs: 1/2, 0 BB, 0 K

Mark Hendrickson (L): 5.61 ERA, 4.0 BB/9, 5.8 K/9, 1.9 HR/9, 5.86 FIP, 40% GB

proj avg: 5.00 ERA, 3.1 BB/9, 5.5 K/9, 1.1 HR/9
gb: 45%
pitches: 60% fb, 12% ch, 23% cb, 4% ct
r/l: .826 vs .692 ops; 1.8 vs 2.1 k/bb
h/a: .811 vs .777 ops; 1.9 vs 1.8 k/bb

Hendrickson vs Phillies:

Feliz: 4/18, 0 BB, 1 K
Rollins: 3/9, 0 BB, 1 K, 1 HBP
Utley: 4/9, 1 2B, 1 HR, 1 BB, 1 K
Howard: 1/8, 1 BB, 5 K
Ibanez: 1/7, 1 BB, 1 K
Victorino: 4/8, 1 2B, 1 3B, 0 BB, 0 K
Coste: 2/6, 1 2B, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K
Stairs: 2/4, 1 2B, 0 BB, 1 K
Werth: 1/4, 0 BB, 1 K
Bruntlett: 1/2, 1 BB (IBB), 0 K
Bako: 1/1, 1 HR, 1 BB, 0 K
Dobbs: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Ruiz: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K

Brian Bass (R): 3.92 ERA, 2.9 BB/9, 6.0 K/9, 1.6 HR/9, 5.29 FIP, 66% GB

proj avg: 4.80 ERA, 3.2 BB/9, 5.1 K/9, 1.1 HR/9
gb: 60%
pitches: 66% fb, 18% sl, 11% cb, 5% ch, 0.1% sf
r/l: .862 vs .717 ops; 2.0 vs 1.4 k/bb
h/a: .755 vs .859 ops; 1.8 vs 1.4 k/bb

Bass vs Phillies:

Ibanez: 1/1, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K

Matt Albers (R): 3.86 ERA, 4.2 BB/9, 5.3 K/9, 0.4 HR/9, 3.93 FIP, 35% GB

proj avg: 4.70 ERA, 4.2 BB/9, 6.0 K/9, 0.9 HR/9
gb: 47%
pitches: 72% fb, 26% cb, 2% ch
r/l: .812 vs .763 ops; 1.9 vs 1.0 k/bb
h/a: .721 vs .860 ops; 1.8 vs 1.1 k/bb

Albers vs Phillies:

Feliz: 0/2, 1 BB, 1 K
Stairs: 1/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Howard: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Rollins: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Ruiz: 1 BB (IBB)
Utley: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Victorino: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K

PHILLIES

LINEUP

1) SS Jimmy Rollins (S): .225/.263/.350

projection average (proj): .285/.350/.460
projected BB/PA (bb): 8%
projected K/AB (k): 11%
career gb% (gb): 42%
career infield flies/flyball (iff): 10%
career infield hits/groundball (ifh): 5%
batting average on balls in play tendencies (babip): about average overall, though a little bit high popup rate so slightly below average
swing/contact/zone facts (s/c/z): good eye, pretty selective, but very high contact rate so low walk rate
righty/lefty (r/l): 1.7 vs 1.3 k/bb, mostly because of higher k-rate as lhb. otherwise similar on contact
home/away (h/a): 1.5 vs 1.7 k/bb; .805 vs .739 ops
pull/opposite (p/o): definite pull hitter
anything else (other): stole 47 bases in 50 attempts last year.

2) CF Shane Victorino (S): .295/.351/.451

proj: .285/.345/.430
bb: 7.5%
k: 13%
gb: 46%
iff: 15%
ifh: 8%
babip: slightly above average due to high babip on groundballs-- partly because infield plays in for him and he spreads the ball around well; not that high due to high infield fly rate
s/c/z: pretety bad eye but high contact rate
r/l: much more power righthanded (1.6% to 3.8% HR rate), but much better k/bb as lefty: 1.65 vs 1.88; higher babip lefty also (.316 vs .286)
h/a: far fewer walks on road but nearly exactly the same strikeout rate, same power, same babip
p/o: pull hitter both ways
other: stole 36 of 47 bases last year

3) 2B Chase Utley (L): .308/.441/.567

proj: .295/.380/.525
bb: 9.5%
k: 18%
gb: 37%
iff: 10%
ifh: 6%
babip: distinctly above average historically and for projections too; seemingly strong power leads to high line drive babip rate and reasonably high groundball babip especially for pull hitting lefty; high on flyballs despite high infield fly rate since he hits deep flyballs
s/c/z: pretty good eye, somewhat selective, somewhat high contact rate
r/l: not significant-- only 1.7 vs 2.0 k/bb; .919 vs .865 ops
h/a: similar k/bb home & away; better hr at home-- probably park factors; higher babip at home too
p/o: pull hitter
other: much better against power pitchers relative to other hitters

4) 1B Ryan Howard (L): .257/.331/.552

proj: .275/.375/580
bb: 14%
k: 33%
gb: 40%
iff: 2%
ifh: 4%
babip: low on groundballs over time as he pulls the vast majority of them; very very high on flyballs because he almost never pops out in the infield at all and many of his flyballs are very deep. also since so few of his flyballs stay in the park (only 2/3 or so), a higher percentage of his balls in play are line drives-- which he does well on like many power hitters-- his low contact rate means he sometimes make poor contact though. probably above average overall
s/c/z: swings a lot especially for someone who doesn't see many strikes. however, he is pretty good at distinguishing pulls from strikes despite the consensus on him. he makes terrible contact overall though
r/l: 1.064 vs .786 ops: say it with me "that means he's good against righties, not bad against lefties!" in fact, he's the best hitter against righties in baseball right now probably. his k/bb vs lhp is 3.7 vs 1.6 vs rhp. he has a lot of power against lefties however, but a lower babip. i don't have split data on pull% vs lhp/rhp but observationally i'm pretty sure that's the difference in his babip: .338 vs .309.
h/a: much higher babip on road. very similar hr numbers. 2.0 vs 3.2 k/bb.
p/o: pull hitter, especially on groundballs-- hits more homeruns the opposite way though
other: struggles mightily against power pitchers and groundball pitchers, dominate flyball pitchers (since he almost never pops out, and has 10.3% hr rate) and smashes finesse pitchers (11.8% hr rate); he also does much better on babip with runners on base as defenders can't shift against him-- especially with runners in scoring position

5) RF Jayson Werth (R): .261/.350/.466

proj: .270/.360/.460
bb: 12.5%
k: 29%
gb: 38%
iff: 8%
ifh: 8%
babip: high on groundballs due to high infield hit rate, high on line drives due to power, and hits pretty deep flyballs too; has been historically probably higher than it should be since he's faced more lhp than normal rhb do; overall still seems to be very above average
s/c/z: very selective and pretty good eye; somewhat low contact rate
r/l: .762 vs .919 ops; 2.4 vs 2.0 k/bb; hr rate of 6.7% vs 2.9%
h/a: not much of a split at all
p/o: spreads ball around well for power hitter, but still a pull hitter
other: stole 20 bases in 21 attempts last year

6) RF Greg Dobbs (L): .186/.258/.373

proj: .285/.335/.445
bb: 7%
k: 17%
gb: 36%
iff: 13.5%
ifh: 3%
babip: has been high but probably should not be projected as high-- success derives from impossibly high line drive babip which doesn't typically happen for non-extreme power hitters. given his popup rate, he probably isn't a .320 babip guy and there isn't a .285 hitter
s/c/z: poor eye but very high swing rate; average contact rate
r/l: .761 vs .579 ops despite impossible .481 babip against lhp. in reality, he strikes out in 48% of at-bats against lhp. he should never see them. absolutely no power against lefties also.
h/a: virtually no split at all
p/o: pull hitter
other: much better against finesse pitchers

7) 3B Pedro Feliz (R): .308/.354/.429

proj: .250/.300/.420
bb: 6%
k: 15.5%
gb: 44%
iff: 15%
ifh: 5%
babip: very low-- pops up a lot, hits groundballs predictably to left side and is slow so they can play shaded over and deep; not all that much power so not terrific on line drives either, makes a lot of weak contact as he isn't good at making contact so he chops a lot of balls
s/c/z: high swing rate and not terribly good at distinguishing balls from strikes. swung significantly less in 2008, but it was as much of a decrease in balls as strikes, makes average contact
r/l: 3.3 vs 2.3 k/bb; .708 vs .755 ops, more babip and a little more power agaisnt lefties
h/a: much higher k rate on road, similar bb rate; more power on road, higher babip at home. likely not much difference (.725 vs .716 overall ops)
p/o: definite pull hitter
other: defensive numbers dipped last year, had offseason surgery for back, perhaps these are related

8) C Carlos Ruiz (R): .270/.391/.435

proj: .255/.335/.390
bb: 10%
k: 14%
gb: 50% (but rose in 2008 to 54% from 46%)
iff: 9.5%
ifh: 4%
babip: was extraordinarily low in 2008, but that seems to be rather flukey. his high groundball rate and solid contact rate and pitch selection indicate he should be a good babip guy, but he does very poorly on groundball as he chops the ball a lots/c/z: very good eye and excellent contact skill, extremely patient
r/l: bizarre reverse split despite 0.5 k/bb vs lhp and 1.2 vs rhp; impossibly low .204 babip against lhp, probably flukey and probably much better vs lhp in reality
h/a: similar k/bb, worse babip but higher power at home (park factors)
p/o: slight pull hitter
other: better against power pitchers, currently on DL with strained rib cage, probably longer than 15 days as originally thought

BENCH:

C Chris Coste (R): .253/.354/.422

proj: .265/.315/.405
bb: 5.5%
k: 17.5%
gb: 40%
iff: 10%
ifh: 6%
babip: slightly below average, seemingly due to poor eye and swinging and hitting bad pitches
s/c/z: high swing rate, pretty poor eye, average contact
r/l: .747 vs .855; same k/bb rate, much better babip against lhp, similar power but slightly more vs lhp
h/a: .886 vs .679; 5.4% vs 1.5% hr rate
p/o: pull hitter
other: struggles with power pitchers somewhat

IF/OF Eric Bruntlett (R): .163/.259/.245

proj: .240/.325/.335
bb: 10%
k: 18%
gb: 41%
iff: 14%
ifh: 5%
babip: high popup rate leads to low babip, but not that low; also doesn't do all that well on line drives due to lack of power
s/c/z: somewhat above average eye and doesn't swing much; makes very good contact, sees a lot of strikes
r/l: .592 vs .764 ops; 2.5 vs 1.2 k/bb; 5.7% vs 8.8% xbh/ab-- he's actually average if not above average against lhp; he just is terrible against rhb. he should be used as a counterswitch to loogy use against lefty pinch hitters
h/a: more power at home and more walks at home; similar strikeout rate and babip
p/o: opposite field hitter
other: none

OF Matt Stairs (L): .282/.451/.538

proj: .255/.340/.440
bb: 11%
k: 22%
gb: 42%
iff: 11.5%
ifh: 5%
babip: average all around
s/c/z: very good eye and slightly below average contact
r/l: .862 vs .748; much more power against rhp; 1.4 vs 2.1 k/bb
h/a: not much of a split at all
p/o: slight pull hitter but not much for a power hitter
other: use stairs in case of emergency

IF Paul Bako (L): .000/.000/.000

proj: .220/.290/.295
bb: 9%
k: 30%
gb: 53%
iff: 7%
ifh: 6%
babip: projcted around .285
s/c/z: average eye, average patience, below average contact
r/l: .637 vs .522 ops; 2.2 vs 6.1 k/bb
h/a: .621 vs .621 ops; 2.5 vs 2.6 k/bb
p/o: very slight pull hitter, but spreads ball around pretty well
other: none

OF John Mayberry (R): .286/.286/.786

proj: .235/.290/.415
bb: 6.5%
k: 27%
iff: around 15-20% in minors
ifh: ?
babip: hits ball hard but pops up a lot; probably a bit average but tough to know; projected below average
s/c/z: not enough info
r/l: batter against lefties, particularly at making contact, in minors
h/a: not enough info
p/o: not enough info
other: none

DISABLED LIST: LF Raul Ibanez (L): .312/.371/.656

proj: .285/.350/.480
bb: 9%
k: 17%
gb: 42%
iff: 11%
ifh: 5%
babip: above average, probably because he spreads the ball around pretty well for a power hitter; much better babip with men on-- probably hooks ball in hole well or maybe he was shifted against more so beforehand
s/c/z: definitely a good eye though it's getting worse, slightly above average contact
r/l: .850 vs .733; 1.5 vs 2.8 k/bb
h/a: better k/bb (1.6 vs 1.9) but worse power probably park factors, and probably likely to be better at home
p/o: slight pull hitter but not much for a power hitter
other: none

ROTATION

FRIDAY STARTER: Antonio Bastardo (L): 5.25 ERA, 3.8 BB/9, 7.5 K/9, 1.5 HR/9, 5.07 FIP, 28% GB

proj avg: 5.60 ERA, 4.8 BB/9, 7.0 K/9, 1.9 HR/9
gb: 40% in minors
pitches: ?
r/l: 2.1 vs 4.1 k/bb in minor league career
h/a: much better control at home in minor league control

Bastardo: has not played any Orioles

SATURDAY STARTER: J.A. Happ (L): 3.53 ERA, 4.2 BB/9, 6.5 K/9, 1.3 HR/9, 5.24 FIP, 34% GB

proj avg: 4.40 ERA, 3.8 BB/9, 7.7 K/9, 1.2 HR/9
gb: 29% in majors thus far; 42% in AAA in 2008
pitches: 64% fb, 18% ch, 14% sl, 2% ct, 2% cb
r/l: 1.7 vs 3.0 k/bb in majors thus far; 2.7 vs 3.5 k/bb in AAA in 2008
h/a: not enough info

Happ: has not played any Orioles

SUNDAY STARTER: Cole Hamels (L): 4.48 ERA, 1.8 BB/9, 8.2 K/9, 1.4 HR/9, 4.00 FIP, 42% GB

proj avg: 3.45 ERA, 2.3 BB/9, 8.4 K/9, 1.1 HR/9
gb: 40%
pitches: 55% fb, 32% ch, 14% cb
r/l: .680 vs .748, but same 3.6 k/bb both ways; slightly more power vs lhb-- this is probably selection bias as managers withhold all but the best lefties against him (explaining 20% of hitters faced are lefties only)
h/a: 3.85 vs 3.4 k/bb; .676 vs .709 ops-- less of a difference due to higher HR rate at home
other: much higher k-rate at night: 25% vs 20%, which is statistically significant. ERA difference (4.71 vs 3.01 exaggerated by babip difference), as HR rate and XBH rate very similar. most likely he strikes out more at night.

Hamels vs Orioles:

Huff: 1/4, 1 HR, 0 BB, 2 K
Wigginton: 1/3, 1 2B, 1 BB, 0 K
Markakis: 1/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Mora: 1/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Roberts: 2/2, 1 HR, 1 BB, 0 K
Hill: 0/2, 0 BB, 1 K

NOT STARTING THIS SERIES: Jamie Moyer (L): 6.35 ERA, 2.2 BB/9, 5.2 K/9, 2.0 HR/9, 5.78 FIP, 40% GB

proj avg: 4.80 ERA, 2.8 BB/9, 5.5 K/9, 1.2 HR/9
gb: 39%
pitches: 41% fb, 30% ct, 24% ch, 6% cb
r/l: virtually no split but that seems to be selection as he sees 24% lefties only compared with 32% league average for lhp
h/a: 2.3 vs 1.9 k/bb; not much difference on contact; slightly better babip at home but not more so than the average starter gets

Moyer vs Orioles:

Mora: 10/40, 2 HR, 4 BB, 1 K, 1 Sac
Roberts: 3/10, 0 BB, 4 K
Huff: 8/20, 2 HR, 0 BB, 0 K
Zaun: 2/8, 1 2B, 1 BB, 2 K
Markakis: 1/6, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Wigginton: 0/6, 0 BB, 1 K
Andino: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K

NOT STARTING THIS SERIES: Joe Blanton (R): 5.28 ERA, 2.8 BB/9, 7.9 K/9, 1.9 HR/9, 5.05 FIP, 40% GB

proj avg: 4.25 ERA, 2.5 BB/9, 5.8 K/9, 0.9 HR/9
gb: 45%
pitches: 56% fb, 16% ch, 15% sl, 12% cb
r/l: 2.3 vs 1.8 k/bb; .750 vs .719 ops
h/a: 2.2 vs 2.0 k/bb; .698 vs .776 ops; much worse babip away (.313 vs .282), more power surrendered on road
other: extraordinarily good against leadoff hitters, especially the first hitter of games

Blanton vs Orioles:

Huff: 3/17, 2 2B, 1 BB, 1 K
Mora: 5/14, 1 2B, 2 HR, 0 BB, 1 K, 1 Sac
Roberts: 3/13, 2 2B, 1 BB, 3 K
Markakis: 6/12, 1 HR, 1 BB, 1 K
Zaun: 2/11, 1 2B, 1 BB, 2 K
Wigginton: 3/6, 1 BB, 2 K
Scott: 1/2, 1 2B, 1 BB, 0 K
Jones: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K

BULLPEN

Ryan Madson (R): 2.36 ERA, 3.2 BB/9, 10.0 K/9, 0.3 HR/9, 2.37 FIP, 43% GB

proj avg: 3.80 ERA, 2.9 BB/9, 7.2 K/9, 0.8 HR/9
gb: 48%
pitches: 58% fb, 24% ch, 15% ct, 4% cb
r/l: 3.65 vs 1.8 k/bb; .714 vs .786 ops
h/a: no major split at all

Madson vs Orioles:

Roberts: 2/6, 0 BB, 0 K
Mora: 1/5, 0 BB, 2 K
Wigginton: 1/5, 0 BB, 0 K
Huff: 0/4, 0 BB, 2 K
Scott: 1/4, 0 BB, 2 K
Markakis: 0/3, 0 BB, 1 K

Jack Taschner (L): 4.56 ERA, 6.5 BB/9, 4.9 K/9, 0.8 HR/9, 5.48 FIP, 36% GB

proj avg: 4.50 ERA, 4.1 BB/9, 8.0 K/9, 1.0 HR/9
gb: 35%
pitches: 57% fb, 30% sl, 13% ch
r/l: 1.45 vs 2.2 k/bb; .754 vs .747-- large selection bias where he faces only very good lefties and not very good righties
h/a: .698 vs .797 ops; 2.1 vs 1.5 k/bb

Taschner vs Orioles:

Scott: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Zaun: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K

Chad Durbin (R): 3.89 ERA, 5.4 BB/9, 8.3 K/9, 1.3 HR/9, 5.45 FIP, 34% GB

proj avg: 4.10 ERA, 3.5 BB/9, 6.5 K/9, 1.0 HR/9
gb: 41%
pitches: 47% fb, 38% sl, 8% ch, 7% cb, 1% ct
r/l: virtually no split
h/a: somewhat of a reverse split but probably just noise

Durbin vs Orioles:

Mora: 5/13, 1 2B, 2 HR, 2 BB, 2 K
Roberts: 2/7, 2 BB, 1 K
Huff: 4/8, 0 BB, 2 K
Zaun: 1/5, 1 BB, 1 K
Markakis: 0/4, 1 BB, 1 K
Wigginton: 2/3, 1 BB, 1 K

Clay Condrey (R): 3.71 ERA, 3.7 BB/9, 5.8 K/9, 1.1 HR/9, 4.54 FIP, 52% GB

proj avg: 4.50 ERA, 2.8 BB/9, 4.9 K/9, 0.8 HR/9
gb: 50%
pitches: 59% fb, 17% ct, 15% sl, 9% ch
r/l: 2.1 vs 1.3 k/bb; .761 vs .842 ops
h/a: .703 vs .898 ops; 2.2 vs 1.3 k/bb

Condrey vs Orioles:

Mora: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Zaun: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Andino: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Markakis: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Roberts: 1 BB

Chan Ho Park (R): 4.50 ERA, 4.5 BB/9, 7.4 K/9, 0.9 HR/9, 6.14 FIP, 42% GB

proj avg: 4.50 ERA, 3.5 BB/9, 7.3 K/9, 1.2 HR/9
gb: 45%
pitches: 51% FB, 29% SL, 12% cb, 5% ch, 4% ct
r/l: .666 vs .820 ops; 2.6 vs 1.3 k/bb; .280 vs .301 babip; 2.6% vs 3.6% HR rate-- much better against righties
h/a: 2.0 vs 1.7 k/bb; .708 vs .780 ops

Park vs Orioles:

Huff: 4/11, 2 HR, 2 BB, 2 K
Zaun: 4/10, 1 3B, 0 BB, 1 K
Mora: 3/8, 1 2B, 0 BB, 3 K
Roberts: 0/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Scott: 1/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Wigginton: 1/3, 0 BB, 0 K

J.C. Romero (L): 1.00 ERA, 10.0 BB/9, 7.0 K/9, 1.0 HR/9, 6.29 FIP, 52% GB

proj avg: 4.00 ERA, 5.5 BB/9, 7.5 K/9, 0.7 HR/9
gb: 55%
pitches: 58% fb, 25% sl, 17% ch, 0.1% cb
r/l: 1.2 vs 2.2 k/bb; .814 vs. 591 ops
h/a: 1.6 vs 1.3 k/bb; .697 vs .768 ops

Romero vs Orioles:

Roberts: 3/8, 1 2B, 2 BB, 1 K
Huff: 1/8, 0 BB, 2 K
Mora: 1/5, 2 BB, 0 K
Markakis: 1/5, 1 2B, 0 BB, 1 K
Zaun: 2/4, 1 2B, 1 3B, 0 BB, 0 K
Scott: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K
Wigginton: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K

Tyler Walker (R): 0.00 ERA, 3.4 BB/9, 6.8 K/9, 0.0 HR/9, 2.69 FIP, 43%

proj avg: 4.30 ERA, 3.7 BB/9, 7.4 K/9, 1.1 HR/9
gb: 41%
pitches: 59% fb, 27% sl, 10% ch, 3% cb
r/l: .721 vs .838 ops; 2.1 vs 1.9 k/bb
h/a: .838 vs .712 ops; 1.8 vs 2.2 k/bb

Walker vs Orioles:

Mora: 1/4, 0 BB, 0 K
ROberts: 0/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Wigginton: 0/2, 1 BB, 0 K
Zaun: 1/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Markakis: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K, 1 Sac

DISABLED LIST: Brad Lidge (R): 7.27 ERA, 4.8 BB/9, 9.7 K/9, 2.4 HR/9, 6.15 FIP, 38% GB

proj avg: 3.50 ERA, 4.1 BB?9, 11.0 K/9, 0.8 HR/9
gb: 41% (though this went up to 46% with increased slider use in 2008)
pitches: 56% sl, 43% fb, 0.4% ch in 2008 (historically 54% fb, 42% sl)
r/l: 3.6 vs 2.8 k/bb; .601 vs .686 ops (tough to tell if that tendency became more or less extreme in 2008 due to limited sample size)
h/a: 3.6 vs 2.9 k/bb; .666 vs .614 ops though due to higher babip away
other: HR/Flyball plummeted in 2008-- probably unsustainably low and his ERA should rise; still rumors of him tipping pitches explain the HR/Flyball spike in 2006 & 2007

Lidge vs Orioles:

Wigginton: 0/2, 0 BB, 1 K
Huff: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Mora: 1 BB
Roberts: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Zaun: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K

DISABLED LIST: Scott Eyre (L): 2.57 ERA, 5.8 BB/9, 6.4 K/9, 1.3 HR/9, 5.64 FIP, 32% GB

proj avg: 4.20 ERA, 4.1 BB/9, 8.8 K/9, 0.9 HR/9
gb: 41%
pitches: 59% fb, 35% sl, 6% ch, 0.2% cb
r/l: 1.5 vs 1.9 k/bb; .815 vs .720 ops
h/a: not much of a split

Eyre vs Orioles:

Huff: 3/11, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Scott: 2/2, 2 BB, 0 K
Wigginton: 1/3, 0 BB, 1 K
Roberts: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Zaun: 1/1, 1 BB, 0 K
Markakis: 1 BB
Mora: 1 BB

Phillies vs. Blue Jays: June 16-18

Matt Swartz — Tue, 16 Jun 2009 22:00:18 -0000

More photos » by Tom Mihalek - AP

Howard and Ibanez have given Phillies fans a lot of reasons to high five. Ibanez is tied for first in the majors with 22 HR, and Howard is 6th in the majors with 19. (AP Photo/Tom Mihalek)

Browse more photos »

The Phillies (36-25) continue their homestand against the AL East this week with the Toronto Blue Jays (34-31). The Phillies come off a tough series with the Boston Red Sox, in which they lost the first game on 13 innings after a unreviewed and debatable foul homerun call, lost the second game after falling behind 5-0 after a first inning rain delay, and managed a comeback victory against Josh Beckett in the series finale. The Blue Jays have fallen to five games behind the very team that took two of three in Philly this past weekend, after getting swept by the Marlins, and have now lost four in a row. Their offense this year has been pretty solid, putting up nearly 5 runs a game, and in 5th place in runs scored in the AL. Their pitching has been pretty solid, with a 4.30 team ERA. A lot of that is thanks to the excellent season that Roy Halladay has had thus far. Fortuantely for the Phillies, Halladay himself is injured right now, and may go on the disabled list. Certainly, he will miss his scheduled start this Wednesday against the Phillies.

On Tuesday night, Cole Hamels looks to rebound after a disappointing performance against the Mets in which he gave up 11 hits in 5 innings, and surrendered 4 runs. He will go up against LHP Ricky Romero, who has been okay this year, despite a high HR/flyball rate. He has started 7 games thus far, with an ERA of 3.71.

On Wednesday night, the Phillies send Jamie Moyer to the hill. He has had an up and down season, though he has shown signs of improving recently. The Blue Jays will probably send out Scott Richmond on Wednesday. He has some vulnerability to the longball, especially by left-handed hitters. Otherwise, he is a pretty average pitcher.

On Thursday night, Joe Blanton will pitch for the Phillies. Blanton has struck out more hitters than ever before, but still has enough bad luck that his ERA is high. He is turning it around in recent starts as well. The Blue Jays will send Casey Janssen to the mound on Thursday night. Janssen is a contact-pitcher who gets a lot of groundballs when he's successful.

MATCHUPS:

Tuesday 7:05-- Cole Hamels (L) vs Ricky Romero (L)

Wednesday 7:05-- Jamie Moyer (L) vs Scott Richmond (R)

Thursday 7:05-- Joe Blanton (R) vs Casey Janssen (R)

After the jump, I preview the players, their splits, and the matchups.

BLUE JAYS

LINE UP

1) SS Marco Scutaro (R): .298/.397/.439

projection average (proj): .260/.335/.365
projected BB/PA (bb): 9.5%
projected K/AB (k): 14.5%
career gb% (gb): 42%
career infield flies/flyball (iff): 12%
career infield hits/groundball (ifh): 8%
batting average on balls in play tendencies (babip): projected around .290 but i have him at .301.
swing/contact/zone facts (s/c/z): very patient and good eye, excellent contact
righty/lefty (r/l): .706 vs .745 ops; 1.5 vs 1.0 k/bb
home/away (h/a): .718 vs .713 ops; 1.4 vs 1.3 k/bb
pull/opposite (p/o): slight pull hitter
anything else (other): struggles against power pitchers

2) 2B Aaron Hill (R): .313/.351/.495

proj: .280/.340/.410
bb: 7%
k: 14.5%
gb: 41%
iff: 9%
ifh: 7%
babip: projected around .315
s/c/z: okay eye, somewhat patient, and decent contact
r/l: .741 vs .837 ops; 2.0 vs 1.5 k/bb
h/a: .807 vs .725 ops; 2.0 vs 1.7 k/bb
p/o: pull hitter
other: better against groundball pitchers

3) RF Alex Rios (R): .275/.330/.457

proj: .285/.345/.470
bb: 7%
k: 18%
gb: 43%
iff: 7%
ifh: 7%
babip: projected around .330 but i have him around .315
s/c/z: decent eye and contact
r/l: .784 vs .799 ops; 2.7 vs 2.2 k/bb
h/a: .835 vs .744 ops; 2.4 vs 2.7 k/bb
p/o: slight pull hitter but not much for a power hitter at all
other: none

4) CF Vernon Wells (R): .238/.296/.369

proj: .275/.335/.455
bb: 7%
k: 14%
gb: 41%
iff: 16%
ifh: 8%
babip: i have him around .295 which is slightly above where others have him
s/c/z: somewhat impatient but decent eye, somewhat okay contact
r/l: .762 vs .888 ops; 2.2 vs 1.2 k/bb
h/a: .842 vs .777 ops; 1.6 vs 2.1 k/bb
p/o: pull hitter
other: none

5) DH Adam Lind (L): .300/.364/.534

proj: .280/.320/.445
bb: 6.5%
k: 20%
gb: 47%
iff: 9%
ifh: 4%
babip: projected around .320 but i have him at .298.
s/c/z: not a good eye, not that patient, okay contact
r/l: .789 vs .699 ops; 3.0 vs 3.2 k/bb
h/a: .778 vs .754 ops; 3.4 vs 2.7 k/bb
p/o: decent pull hitter
other: none

6) 3B Scott Rolen (R): .320/.386/.457

proj: .265/.340/.440
bb: 10%
k: 17%
gb: 34%
iff: 12%
ifh: 5%
babip: i have him at .287 which is about where the projection systems have him.
s/c/z: very good eye, decent contact, decent patience
r/l: .856 vs .916 ops; 1.8 vs 1.0 k/bb
h/a: .874 vs .867 ops; 1.3 vs 1.7 k/bb
p/o: slight pull hitter
other: none

7) 1B Lyle Overbay (L): .283/.393/.547

proj: .270/.350/.420
bb: 11%
k: 19%
gb: 46%
iff: 4%
ifh: 3%
babip: i have him at .314 which is similar to where others have him.
s/c/z: very good eye and patience, average contact
r/l: .842 vs .724 ops; 1.5 vs 1.6 k/bb
h/a: .844 vs .768 ops; 1.5 vs 1.7 k/bb
p/o: slight pull hitter
other: none

8) C Rod Barajas (R): .268/.299/.399

proj: .245/.295/.400
bb: 6%
k: 18%
gb: 30%
iff: 17%
ifh: 4%
babip: i have him at .279 which is a few points higher than other systems do (around .270)
s/c/z: impatient, not great eye, average contact
r/l: .695 vs .724 ops; 3.1 vs 2.1 k/bb
h/a: .696 vs .707 ops; 3.2 vs 2.8 k/bb
p/o: somewhat of a pull hitter
other: much better against groundball pitchers

9) LF Jose Bautista (R): .255/.388/.355

proj: .240/.325/.415
bb: 10%
k: 24%
gb: 42%
iff: 13%
ifh: 5%
babip: i have him at .282 which is about where other systems do.
s/c/z: patient with good eye and average contact
r/l: .687 vs .820 ops; 2.2 vs 1.9 k/bb
h/a: .731 vs .723 ops; 1.9 vs 2.2 k/bb
p/o: slight pull hitter
other: none

BENCH

C Raul Chavez (R): .255/.255/.319

proj: .230/.275/.330
bb: 4%
k: 15%
gb: 47%
iff: 12%
ifh: 4%
babip: projections vary but around .265
s/c/z: impatient without a good eye and decent contact
r/l: .547 vs .550 ops; 5.0 vs 2.1 k/bb
h/a: .554 vs .542 ops; 3.3 vs 4.3 k/bb
p/o: slight pull hitter
other: none

SS John McDonald (R): .227/.227/.227

proj: .235/.280/.320
bb: 5%
k: 15%
gb: 44%
iff: 13%
ifh: 6%
babip: projected around .270
s/c/z: okay eye and patience; above average contact
r/l: .558 vs .640 ops; 4.0 vs 2.2 k/bb
h/a: .544 vs .621 ops; 3.8 vs 3.0 k/bb
p/o: slight pull hitter
other: none

1B/DH Kevin Millar (R): .240/.307/.384

proj: .245/.340/.395
bb: 12%
k: 20%
gb: 33%
iff: 12%
ifh: 5%
babip: i have him at .270 which is about where other systems have him.
s/c/z: good eye, okay patience, above average contact
r/l: .823 vs .802 ops; 1.6 vs 1.2 k/bb
h/a: .875 vs .758 ops; 1.3 vs 1.7 k/bb
p/o: definite pull hitter
other: none

UTL Joe Inglett (L): .150/.227/.150

proj: .280/.340/.390
bb: 7.5%
k: 15%
gb: 48%
iff: 2%
ifh: 4%
babip: projected around .320
s/c/z: patient with good eye, above average contact
r/l: .759 vs .624 ops; 2.0 vs 2.2 k/bb
h/a: .807 vs .681 ops; 1.9 vs 2.2 k/bb
p/o: slight pull hitter
other: none

ROTATION

TUESDAY OPPONENT: Ricky Romero (L): 3.71 ERA, 2.9 BB/9, 6.6 K/9, 1.6 HR/9, 5.02 FIP, 51% GB

proj avg: 5.90 ERA, 5.0 BB/9, 5.1 K/9, 1.3 HR/9
gb: 49% in minors
pitches: 58% fb, 20% sl, 15% ch, 7% cb
r/l: 1.9 vs 1.7 k/bb in minors
h/a: not enough info

Romero: has not played any Phillies

WEDNESDAY OPPONENT: Scott Richmond (R): 3.90 ERA, 3.2 BB/9, 7.1 K/9, 1.3 HR/9, 4.44 FIP, 37% GB

proj avg: 5.30 ERA, 3.1 BB/9, 6.2 K/9, 1.4 HR/9
gb: 37%
pitches: 52% fb, 29% sl, 11% cb, 8% ch
r/l: .389 vs 1.055 ops; 6.0 vs 2.0 k/bb (K's nearly 25% of righties but only 14% of lefties)
h/a: .860 vs .639 ops; 4.1 vs 2.3 k/bb

Richmond: has not played any Phillies

THURSDAY OPPONENT: Casey Janssen (R): 6.23 ERA, 2.4 BB/9, 3.8 K/9, 1.4 HR/9, 5.27 FIP, 42% GB

proj avg: 3.90 ERA, 2.4 bB/9, 5.6 K/9, 0.8 HR/9 (nowhere near a consensus on him)
gb: 51%
pitches: 41% fb, 25% ct, 19% sl, 12% cb, 3% ch
r/l: .712 vs .745 ops; 2.6 vs 1.3 k/bb
h/a: .689 vs .767 ops; 1.8 vs 2.0 k/bb

Janssen vs Phillies:

Ibanez: 0/2, 2 BB, 0 K
Rollins: 0/4, 0 BB, 1 K
Utley: 0/3, 1 BB, 1 K
Victorino: 0/4, 0 BB, 0 K
Howard: 1/2, 1 BB, 1 K
Dobbs: 1/2, 1 2B, 0 BB, 1 K
Feliz: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K

NOT FACING US: Brian Tallet (L): 4.87 ERA, 4.1 BB/9, 6.7 K/9, 1.2 HR/9, 4.69 FIP, 34% GB

proj avg: 4.00 ERA, 3.8 BB/9, 7.1 K/9, 0.8 HR/9
gb: 40%
pitches: 62% fb, 21% sl, 17% ch in 2008; but in 2009: 61% fb, 20% ch, 14% ct, 6% sl
r/l: .684 vs .723 ops; 1.6 vs 1.6 k/bb
h/a: .592 vs .788 ops; 1.6 vs 1.6 k/bb (.219 BABIP in 457 AB at home)

Tallet vs Phillies:

Utley: 0/3, 2 BB, 0 K
Howard: 1/4, 0 BB, 2 K
Feliz: 1/3, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Ibanez: 1/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Victorino: 0/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Coste: 0/2, 0 BB, 2 K
Dobbs: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Rollins: 0/1, 1 BB, 0 K
Bruntlett: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Ruiz: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Werth: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K

NOT FACING US: Roy Halladay (R): 2.53 ERA, 1.0 BB/9, 7.7 K/9, 0.5 HR/9, 2.53 FIP, 56% GB

proj avg: 3.45 ERA, 1.7 BB/9, 6.5 K/9, 0.7 HR/9
gb: 57%
pitches: 2008: 41% fb, 33% ct, 23% cb, 3% ch; 2009: 30% fb, 45% ct, 24% cb, 1% ch
r/l: .663 vs .682 ops; 3.8 vs 2.7 k/bb; faces more lefties than righties and lefties do better on contact than righties-- probably is selection bias & he's probably very tough on righties
h/a: .664 vs .683 ops; 3.5 vs 2.8 k/bb

Halladay vs Phillies:

Ibanez: 7/30, 1 2B, 1 3B, 1 HR, 2 BB, 4 K
Stairs: 10/26, 1 2B, 1 HR, 2 BB, 3 K
Feliz: 2/6, 1 2B, 1 BB, 1 K
Dobbs: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Rollins: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Ruiz: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Werth: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K

BULLPEN

CL Scott Downs (L): 2.05 ERA, 1.4 BB/9, 9.2 K/9, 0.3 HR/9, 2.09 FIP, 51% GB

proj avg: 3.50 ERA, 3.5 BB/9, 7.3 K/9, 0.6 HR/9
gb: 56%
pitches: 66% fb, 31% cb, 3% sl, 0.1% ch
r/l: .784 vs .641 ops; 1.8 vs 2.9 k/bb
h/a: .649 vs .842 ops; 2.7 vs 1.6 k/bb

Downs vs Phillies:

Ibanez: 1/13, 1 2B, 3 BB, 4 K
Rollins: 4/8, 1 BB, 0 K
Howard: 0/6, 0 BB, 4 K
Utley: 1/2, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K, 1 HBP
Dobbs: 0/2, 0 BB, 2 K
Stairs: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Bruntlett: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Victorino: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K

Jason Frasor (R): 1.93 ERA, 1.2 BB/9, 7.3 K/9, 0.4 HR/9, 2.52 FIP, 28% GB

proj avg: 4.00 ERA, 4.6 BB/9, 8.2 K/9, 0.8 HR/9
gb: 44%
pitches: 77% fb, 20% sl, 2% ch
r/l: .675 vs .681 ops; 2.0 vs 2.0 k/bb
h/a: .685 vs .670 ops; 2.1 vs 1.9 k/bb

Frasor vs Phillies:

Ibanez: 1/5, 3 BB (1 IBB), 0 K
Stairs: 2/5, 0 BB, 1 K
Feliz: 1/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Rollins: 0/1, 1 BB, 1 K
Ruiz: 0/2, 0 BB, 1 K
Victorino: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Werth: 0/2, 0 BB, 2 K
Coste: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Howard: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K
Utley: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K

Jesse Carlson (L): 5.22 ERA, 2.8 BB/9, 5.8 K/9, 0.6 HR/9, 3.90 FIP, 36% GB

proj avg: 3.90 ERA, 3.0 BB/9, 7.5 K/9, 1.0 HR/9
gb: 35%
pitches: 43% fb, 56% sl, 1% cb, 0.1% ch
r/l: .620 vs .635 ops; 2.4 vs 2.4 k/bb
h/a: .509 vs .741 ops; 3.6 vs 1.7 k/bb

Carlson vs Phillies:

Howard: 1 BB
Ibanez: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K
Utley: 1/1, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K

B.J. Ryan (L): 6.06 ERA, 5.0 BB/9, 6.6 K/9, 1.6 HR/9, 5.83 FIP, 34% GB

proj avg: 3.20 ERA, 3.8 BB/9, 9.0 K/9, 0.7 HR/9
gb: 42%
pitches: 80% fb, 20% sl, 0.3% ch
r/l: .665 vs .558 ops; 2.1 vs 3.1 k/bb
h/a: .569 vs .689 ops; 2.6 vs 2.2 k/bb

Ryan vs Phillies:

Ibanez: 1/13, 1 BB, 8 K
Rollins: 2/6, 2 2B, 1 BB, 0 K
Stairs: 0/4, 1 BB, 3 K
Coste: 1/3, 1 2B, 0 BB, 1 K
Utley: 0/3, 0 BB, 1 K
Dobbs: 1/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Feliz: 0/2, 0 BB, 1 K
Bruntlett: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K
Howard: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K
Victorino: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Werth: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K

Brandon League (R): 5.93 ERA, 3.0 BB/9, 7.6 K/9, 1.0 HR/9, 4.03 FIP, 52% GB

proj avg: 4.00 ERA< 3.4 BB/9, 6.4 K/9, 0.7 HR/9
gb: 64%
pitches: 83% fb, 12% sl, 5% ch
r/l: .610 vs .834 ops; 1.4 vs 2.0 k/bb
h/a: .698 vs .723 ops; 1.2 vs 2.2 k/bb

League vs Phillies:

Ibanez: 0/5, 0 BB, 2 K
Dobbs: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Stairs: 1/1, 1 BB, 0 K

Shawn Camp (R): 3.91 ERA, 3.9 BB/9, 6.4 K/9, 0.7 HR/9, 3.99 FIP, 64% GB

proj avg: 4.60 ERA, 2.7 BB/9, 6.8 K/9, 1.0 HR/9
gb: 57%
pitches: 55% fb, 33% sl, 12% ch
r/l: .773 vs .932 ops; 3.0 vs 1.8 k/bb
h/a: .784 vs .892 ops; 2.6 vs 2.2 k/bb

Camp vs Phillies:

Rollins: 2/2, 2 2B, 1 BB (IBB), 0 K
Feliz: 1/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Ibanez: 1/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Ruiz: 1/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Werth: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Howard: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Stairs: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Utley: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Victorino: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K

Dirk Hayhurst (R): 0.00 ERA, 0.0 BB/9, 6.4 K/9, 0.0 HR/9, 2.73 FIP, 62% GB

proj avg: 5.05 ERA, 3.5 BB/9, 7.0 K/9, 1.2 HR/9
gb: 45%
pitches: 57% fb, 25% cb, 11% ch, 6% sl
r/l: no major splits in minors
h/a: not enough info

Hayhurst: has not faced any Phillies

OPTIONED TO AAA: Brian Wolfe (R): 7.56 ERA, 2.2 BB/9, 8.6 K/9, 3.2 HR/9, 6.92 FIP, 39% GB

proj avg: 4.00 ERA, 2.9 BB/9, 6.0 K/9, 0.9 HR/9
gb: 52%
pitches: 59% fb, 23% ct, 16% ch, 2% ch, 1% sl
r/l: .561 vs .915 ops; 3.4 vs 2.0 k/bb
h/a: .700 vs .723 ops; 2.7 vs 2.5 k/bb

Wolfe vs Phillies:

Ibanez: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K

PHILLIES

LINEUP

1) SS Jimmy Rollins (S): .217/.254/.330

projection average (proj): .285/.350/.460
projected BB/PA (bb): 8%
projected K/AB (k): 11%
career gb% (gb): 42%
career infield flies/flyball (iff): 10%
career infield hits/groundball (ifh): 5%
batting average on balls in play tendencies (babip): about average overall, though a little bit high popup rate so slightly below average
swing/contact/zone facts (s/c/z): good eye, pretty selective, but very high contact rate so low walk rate
righty/lefty (r/l): 1.7 vs 1.3 k/bb, mostly because of higher k-rate as lhb. otherwise similar on contact
home/away (h/a): 1.5 vs 1.7 k/bb; .805 vs .739 ops
pull/opposite (p/o): definite pull hitter
anything else (other): stole 47 bases in 50 attempts last year.

2) CF Shane Victorino (S): .287/.338/.449

proj: .285/.345/.430
bb: 7.5%
k: 13%
gb: 46%
iff: 15%
ifh: 8%
babip: slightly above average due to high babip on groundballs-- partly because infield plays in for him and he spreads the ball around well; not that high due to high infield fly rate
s/c/z: pretety bad eye but high contact rate
r/l: much more power righthanded (1.6% to 3.8% HR rate), but much better k/bb as lefty: 1.65 vs 1.88; higher babip lefty also (.316 vs .286)
h/a: far fewer walks on road but nearly exactly the same strikeout rate, same power, same babip
p/o: pull hitter both ways
other: stole 36 of 47 bases last year

3) 2B Chase Utley (L): .305/.438/.577

proj: .295/.380/.525
bb: 9.5%
k: 18%
gb: 37%
iff: 10%
ifh: 6%
babip: distinctly above average historically and for projections too; seemingly strong power leads to high line drive babip rate and reasonably high groundball babip especially for pull hitting lefty; high on flyballs despite high infield fly rate since he hits deep flyballs
s/c/z: pretty good eye, somewhat selective, somewhat high contact rate
r/l: not significant-- only 1.7 vs 2.0 k/bb; .919 vs .865 ops
h/a: similar k/bb home & away; better hr at home-- probably park factors; higher babip at home too
p/o: pull hitter
other: much better against power pitchers relative to other hitters

4) 1B Ryan Howard (L): .257/.330/.566

proj: .275/.375/580
bb: 14%
k: 33%
gb: 40%
iff: 2%
ifh: 4%
babip: low on groundballs over time as he pulls the vast majority of them; very very high on flyballs because he almost never pops out in the infield at all and many of his flyballs are very deep. also since so few of his flyballs stay in the park (only 2/3 or so), a higher percentage of his balls in play are line drives-- which he does well on like many power hitters-- his low contact rate means he sometimes make poor contact though. probably above average overall
s/c/z: swings a lot especially for someone who doesn't see many strikes. however, he is pretty good at distinguishing pulls from strikes despite the consensus on him. he makes terrible contact overall though
r/l: 1.064 vs .786 ops: say it with me "that means he's good against righties, not bad against lefties!" in fact, he's the best hitter against righties in baseball right now probably. his k/bb vs lhp is 3.7 vs 1.6 vs rhp. he has a lot of power against lefties however, but a lower babip. i don't have split data on pull% vs lhp/rhp but observationally i'm pretty sure that's the difference in his babip: .338 vs .309.
h/a: much higher babip on road. very similar hr numbers. 2.0 vs 3.2 k/bb.
p/o: pull hitter, especially on groundballs-- hits more homeruns the opposite way though
other: struggles mightily against power pitchers and groundball pitchers, dominate flyball pitchers (since he almost never pops out, and has 10.3% hr rate) and smashes finesse pitchers (11.8% hr rate); he also does much better on babip with runners on base as defenders can't shift against him-- especially with runners in scoring position

5) RF Jayson Werth (R): .262/.358/.440

proj: .270/.360/.460
bb: 12.5%
k: 29%
gb: 38%
iff: 8%
ifh: 8%
babip: high on groundballs due to high infield hit rate, high on line drives due to power, and hits pretty deep flyballs too; has been historically probably higher than it should be since he's faced more lhp than normal rhb do; overall still seems to be very above average
s/c/z: very selective and pretty good eye; somewhat low contact rate
r/l: .762 vs .919 ops; 2.4 vs 2.0 k/bb; hr rate of 6.7% vs 2.9%
h/a: not much of a split at all
p/o: spreads ball around well for power hitter, but still a pull hitter
other: stole 20 bases in 21 attempts last year

6) LF Raul Ibanez (L): .322/.380/.678

proj: .285/.350/.480
bb: 9%
k: 17%
gb: 42%
iff: 11%
ifh: 5%
babip: above average, probably because he spreads the ball around pretty well for a power hitter; much better babip with men on-- probably hooks ball in hole well or maybe he was shifted against more so beforehand
s/c/z: definitely a good eye though it's getting worse, slightly above average contact
r/l: .850 vs .733; 1.5 vs 2.8 k/bb
h/a: better k/bb (1.6 vs 1.9) but worse power probably park factors, and probably likely to be better at home
p/o: slight pull hitter but not much for a power hitter
other: none

7) 3B Pedro Feliz (R): .318/.365/.445

proj: .250/.300/.420
bb: 6%
k: 15.5%
gb: 44%
iff: 15%
ifh: 5%
babip: very low-- pops up a lot, hits groundballs predictably to left side and is slow so they can play shaded over and deep; not all that much power so not terrific on line drives either, makes a lot of weak contact as he isn't good at making contact so he chops a lot of balls
s/c/z: high swing rate and not terribly good at distinguishing balls from strikes. swung significantly less in 2008, but it was as much of a decrease in balls as strikes, makes average contact
r/l: 3.3 vs 2.3 k/bb; .708 vs .755 ops, more babip and a little more power agaisnt lefties
h/a: much higher k rate on road, similar bb rate; more power on road, higher babip at home. likely not much difference (.725 vs .716 overall ops)
p/o: definite pull hitter
other: defensive numbers dipped last year, had offseason surgery for back, perhaps these are related

8) C Carlos Ruiz (R): .284/.405/.459

proj: .255/.335/.390
bb: 10%
k: 14%
gb: 50% (but rose in 2008 to 54% from 46%)
iff: 9.5%
ifh: 4%
babip: was extraordinarily low in 2008, but that seems to be rather flukey. his high groundball rate and solid contact rate and pitch selection indicate he should be a good babip guy, but he does very poorly on groundball as he chops the ball a lots/c/z: very good eye and excellent contact skill, extremely patient
r/l: bizarre reverse split despite 0.5 k/bb vs lhp and 1.2 vs rhp; impossibly low .204 babip against lhp, probably flukey and probably much better vs lhp in reality
h/a: similar k/bb, worse babip but higher power at home (park factors)
p/o: slight pull hitter
other: better against power pitchers, currently on DL with strained rib cage, probably longer than 15 days as originally thought

BENCH:

C Chris Coste (R): .253/.359/.430

proj: .265/.315/.405
bb: 5.5%
k: 17.5%
gb: 40%
iff: 10%
ifh: 6%
babip: slightly below average, seemingly due to poor eye and swinging and hitting bad pitches
s/c/z: high swing rate, pretty poor eye, average contact
r/l: .747 vs .855; same k/bb rate, much better babip against lhp, similar power but slightly more vs lhp
h/a: .886 vs .679; 5.4% vs 1.5% hr rate
p/o: pull hitter
other: struggles with power pitchers somewhat

IF/OF Eric Bruntlett (R): .167/.263/.250

proj: .240/.325/.335
bb: 10%
k: 18%
gb: 41%
iff: 14%
ifh: 5%
babip: high popup rate leads to low babip, but not that low; also doesn't do all that well on line drives due to lack of power
s/c/z: somewhat above average eye and doesn't swing much; makes very good contact, sees a lot of strikes
r/l: .592 vs .764 ops; 2.5 vs 1.2 k/bb; 5.7% vs 8.8% xbh/ab-- he's actually average if not above average against lhp; he just is terrible against rhb. he should be used as a counterswitch to loogy use against lefty pinch hitters
h/a: more power at home and more walks at home; similar strikeout rate and babip
p/o: opposite field hitter
other: none

IF Greg Dobbs (L): .175/.250/.316

proj: .285/.335/.445
bb: 7%
k: 17%
gb: 36%
iff: 13.5%
ifh: 3%
babip: has been high but probably should not be projected as high-- success derives from impossibly high line drive babip which doesn't typically happen for non-extreme power hitters. given his popup rate, he probably isn't a .320 babip guy and there isn't a .285 hitter
s/c/z: poor eye but very high swing rate; average contact rate
r/l: .761 vs .579 ops despite impossible .481 babip against lhp. in reality, he strikes out in 48% of at-bats against lhp. he should never see them. absolutely no power against lefties also.
h/a: virtually no split at all
p/o: pull hitter
other: much better against finesse pitchers

OF Matt Stairs (L): .289/.460/.553

proj: .255/.340/.440
bb: 11%
k: 22%
gb: 42%
iff: 11.5%
ifh: 5%
babip: average all around
s/c/z: very good eye and slightly below average contact
r/l: .862 vs .748; much more power against rhp; 1.4 vs 2.1 k/bb
h/a: not much of a split at all
p/o: slight pull hitter but not much for a power hitter
other: use stairs in case of emergency

IF Paul Bako (L): .000/.000/.000

proj: .220/.290/.295
bb: 9%
k: 30%
gb: 53%
iff: 7%
ifh: 6%
babip: projcted around .285
s/c/z: average eye, average patience, below average contact
r/l: .637 vs .522 ops; 2.2 vs 6.1 k/bb
h/a: .621 vs .621 ops; 2.5 vs 2.6 k/bb
p/o: very slight pull hitter, but spreads ball around pretty well
other: none

ROTATION

TUESDAY STARTER: Cole Hamels (L): 4.62 ERA, 1.7 BB/9, 8.1 K/9, 1.4 HR/9, 3.99 FIP, 41% GB

proj avg: 3.45 ERA, 2.3 BB/9, 8.4 K/9, 1.1 HR/9
gb: 40%
pitches: 55% fb, 32% ch, 14% cb
r/l: .680 vs .748, but same 3.6 k/bb both ways; slightly more power vs lhb-- this is probably selection bias as managers withhold all but the best lefties against him (explaining 20% of hitters faced are lefties only)
h/a: 3.85 vs 3.4 k/bb; .676 vs .709 ops-- less of a difference due to higher HR rate at home
other: much higher k-rate at night: 25% vs 20%, which is statistically significant. ERA difference (4.71 vs 3.01 exaggerated by babip difference), as HR rate and XBH rate very similar. most likely he strikes out more at night.

Hamels vs Blue Jays:

Rolen: 2/6, 0 BB, 2 K, 1 SF
Bautista: 1/2, 1 BB, 1 K
Millar: 1/2, 1 2B, 1 BB, 0 K

WEDNESDAY STARTER: Jamie Moyer (L): 6.11 ERA, 2.2 BB/9, 4.9 K/9, 1.9 HR/9, 5.73 FIP, 40% GB

proj avg: 4.80 ERA, 2.8 BB/9, 5.5 K/9, 1.2 HR/9
gb: 39%
pitches: 41% fb, 30% ct, 24% ch, 6% cb
r/l: virtually no split but that seems to be selection as he sees 24% lefties only compared with 32% league average for lhp
h/a: 2.3 vs 1.9 k/bb; not much difference on contact; slightly better babip at home but not more so than the average starter gets

Moyer vs Blue Jays:

Wells: 13/38, 2 HR, 3 BB, 4 K, 1 SF
Scutaro: 11/29, 1 2B, 3 HR, 2 BB, 1 K, 1 SF
Rios: 9/19, 4 2B, 1 3B, 1 HR, 2 BB, 0 K
Hill: 6/16, 2 BB, 3 K
McDonald: 6/16, 1 HR, 0 BB, 3 K, 1 SF
Overbay: 6/13, 1 2B, 1 3B, 1 HR, 0 BB, 2 K
Millar: 1/7, 1 2B, 1 BB, 3 K
Rolen: 2/6, 1 BB, 3 K
Barajas: 1/5, 0 BB, 0 K
Bautista: 0/2, 1 BB, 0 K

THURSDAY STARTER: Joe Blanton (R): 5.17 ERA, 2.9 BB/9, 8.2 K/9, 1.8 HR/9, 4.86 FIP, 40% GB

proj avg: 4.25 ERA, 2.5 BB/9, 5.8 K/9, 0.9 HR/9
gb: 45%
pitches: 56% fb, 16% ch, 15% sl, 12% cb
r/l: 2.3 vs 1.8 k/bb; .750 vs .719 ops
h/a: 2.2 vs 2.0 k/bb; .698 vs .776 ops; much worse babip away (.313 vs .282), more power surrendered on road
other: extraordinarily good against leadoff hitters, especially the first hitter of games

Blanton vs Blue Jays:

Wells: 6/22, 3 2B, 1 HR, 1 BB, 2 K
Rios: 5/15, 1 HR, 1 BB, 2 K, 1 SF
Hill: 1/12, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K, 1 SF
Barajas: 2/10, 2 2B, 0 BB, 2 K
McDonald: 3/10, 0 BB, 1 K
Millar: 3/7, 2 BB, 1 K
Overbay: 3/9, 1 HR, 0 BB, 1 K
Lind: 0/3, 0 BB, 2 K
Bautista< 0/1, 1 BB, 1 K

NOT STARTING THIS SERIES: Antonio Bastardo (L): 5.25 ERA, 3.8 BB/9, 7.5 K/9, 1.5 HR/9, 5.08 FIP, 28% GB

proj avg: 5.60 ERA, 4.8 BB/9, 7.0 K/9, 1.9 HR/9
gb: 40% in minors
pitches: ?
r/l: 2.1 vs 4.1 k/bb in minor league career
h/a: much better control at home in minor league control

Bastardo: has not played any Blue Jays

NOT STARTING THIS SERIES: J.A. Happ (L): 3.53 ERA, 4.2 BB/9, 6.5 K/9, 1.3 HR/9, 5.25 FIP, 34% GB

proj avg: 4.40 ERA, 3.8 BB/9, 7.7 K/9, 1.2 HR/9
gb: 29% in majors thus far; 42% in AAA in 2008
pitches: 64% fb, 18% ch, 14% sl, 2% ct, 2% cb
r/l: 1.7 vs 3.0 k/bb in majors thus far; 2.7 vs 3.5 k/bb in AAA in 2008
h/a: not enough info

Happ: has not played any Blue Jays

BULLPEN

Ryan Madson (R): 1.95 ERA, 2.5 BB/9, 9.7 K/9, 0.0 HR/9, 1.84 FIP, 42% GB

proj avg: 3.80 ERA, 2.9 BB/9, 7.2 K/9, 0.8 HR/9
gb: 48%
pitches: 58% fb, 24% ch, 15% ct, 4% cb
r/l: 3.65 vs 1.8 k/bb; .714 vs .786 ops
h/a: no major split at all

Madson vs Blue Jays:

Rolen: 0/7, 0 BB, 2 K
Millar: 1/4, 0 BB, 0 K
Barajas: 1/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Bautista: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Inglett: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Rios: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Scutaro: 1 BB

Jack Taschner (L): 4.76 ERA, 6.4 BB/9, 4.8 K/9, 0.8 HR/9, 5.55 FIP, 36% GB

proj avg: 4.50 ERA, 4.1 BB/9, 8.0 K/9, 1.0 HR/9
gb: 35%
pitches: 57% fb, 30% sl, 13% ch
r/l: 1.45 vs 2.2 k/bb; .754 vs .747-- large selection bias where he faces only very good lefties and not very good righties
h/a: .698 vs .797 ops; 2.1 vs 1.5 k/bb

Taschner vs Blue Jays:

Bautista: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Rolen: 1 BB
Scutaro: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K

Chad Durbin (R): 3.86 ERA, 5.4 BB/9, 8.0 K/9, 1.3 HR/9, 5.31 FIP, 35% GB

proj avg: 4.10 ERA, 3.5 BB/9, 6.5 K/9, 1.0 HR/9
gb: 41%
pitches: 47% fb, 38% sl, 8% ch, 7% cb, 1% ct
r/l: virtually no split
h/a: somewhat of a reverse split but probably just noise

Durbin vs Blue Jays:

Rios: 3/12, 0 BB, 1 K
Wells: 2/7, 1 2B, 1 HR, 2 BB, 2 K
Scutaro: 0/5, 2 BB, 2 K
hill: 1/4, 1 2B, 1 BB, 1 K
Millar: 1/3, 1 HR, 2 BB, 0 K
Overbay: 1/4, 1 HR, 0 BB, 1 K
Lind: 2/3, 0 BB, 1 K
Rolen: 0/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Barajas: 1/2, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Bautista: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Chavez: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
McDonald: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K

Clay Condrey (R): 2.14 ERA, 2.9 BB/9, 5.9 K/9, 1.1 HR/9, 4.30 FIP, 53% GB

proj avg: 4.50 ERA, 2.8 BB/9, 4.9 K/9, 0.8 HR/9
gb: 50%
pitches: 59% fb, 17% ct, 15% sl, 9% ch
r/l: 2.1 vs 1.3 k/bb; .761 vs .842 ops
h/a: .703 vs .898 ops; 2.2 vs 1.3 k/bb

Condrey vs Blue Jays:

Bautista: 1/2, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
OVerbay: 1/1, 1 BB, 0 K
Rios: 0/1, 1 BB, 0 K
Hill: 1 BB
Inglett: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K
McDonald: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Millar: 1/1,0 BB, 0 K
Rolen: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Scutaro: 0/1,0 BB, 0 K
Wells: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K

Chan Ho Park (R): 6.08 ERA, 4.4 BB/9, 7.0 K/9, 1.0 HR/9, 4.60 FIP, 42% GB

proj avg: 4.50 ERA, 3.5 BB/9, 7.3 K/9, 1.2 HR/9
gb: 45%
pitches: 51% FB, 29% SL, 12% cb, 5% ch, 4% ct
r/l: .666 vs .820 ops; 2.6 vs 1.3 k/bb; .280 vs .301 babip; 2.6% vs 3.6% HR rate-- much better against righties
h/a: 2.0 vs 1.7 k/bb; .708 vs .780 ops

Park vs Blue Jays:

Rolen: 7/19, 2 2B, 2 BB, 2 K, 1 HBP
Millar: 5/15, 1 2B, 1 3B, 2 HR, 2 BB, 1 K, 1 SF
SScutaro: 1/6, 1 BB, 1 K
Barjas: 0/5, 0 BB, 1 K
Chavez: 2/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Wells: 1/3, 0 BB, 2 K

J.C. Romero (L): 1.23 ERA, 7.4 BB/9, 7.4 K/9, 1.2 HR/9, 5.67 FIP, 47% GB

proj avg: 4.00 ERA, 5.5 BB/9, 7.5 K/9, 0.7 HR/9
gb: 55%
pitches: 58% fb, 25% sl, 17% ch, 0.1% cb
r/l: 1.2 vs 2.2 k/bb; .814 vs. 591 ops
h/a: 1.6 vs 1.3 k/bb; .697 vs .768 ops

Romero vs Blue Jays:

Overbay: 1/9, 0 BB, 1 K, 1 HBP
Wells: 3/6, 1 HR, 3 BB (1 IBB), 0 K
McDonald: 3/7, 2 2B, 0 BB, 2 K
Scutaro: 2/3, 1 BB, 0 K
Lind: 1/2, 0 BB, 0 K, 1 SF
Rios: 0/1, 2 BB (2 IBB), 0 K
Hill: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Inglett: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Millar: 1/1, 1 BB, 0 K
Barajas: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Bautista: 1 BB
Rolen: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K

Tyler Walker (R): has not played yet in 2009

proj avg: 4.30 ERA, 3.7 BB/9, 7.4 K/9, 1.1 HR/9
gb: 41%
pitches: 59% fb, 27% sl, 10% ch, 3% cb
r/l: .721 vs .838 ops; 2.1 vs 1.9 k/bb
h/a: .838 vs .712 ops; 1.8 vs 2.2 k/bb

Walker vs Blue Jays:

Overbay: 1/4, 1 BB, 1 K
Rolen: 1/2, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K, 1 SF
Scutaro: 1/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Bautista: 0/2, 0 BB, 2 K
Rios: 1/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Millar: 1/1, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K
Wells: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K

DISABLED LIST: Brad Lidge (R): 7.27 ERA, 4.8 BB/9, 9.7 K/9, 2.4 HR/9, 6.15 FIP, 38% GB

proj avg: 3.50 ERA, 4.1 BB?9, 11.0 K/9, 0.8 HR/9
gb: 41% (though this went up to 46% with increased slider use in 2008)
pitches: 56% sl, 43% fb, 0.4% ch in 2008 (historically 54% fb, 42% sl)
r/l: 3.6 vs 2.8 k/bb; .601 vs .686 ops (tough to tell if that tendency became more or less extreme in 2008 due to limited sample size)
h/a: 3.6 vs 2.9 k/bb; .666 vs .614 ops though due to higher babip away
other: HR/Flyball plummeted in 2008-- probably unsustainably low and his ERA should rise; still rumors of him tipping pitches explain the HR/Flyball spike in 2006 & 2007

Lidge vs Blue Jays:

Rolen: 1/12, 1 2B, 2 BB, 7 K
Bautista: 1/7, 1 2B, 1 BB, 4 K
Overbay: 1/6, 1 2B, 2 BB (1 IBB), 5 K
Barajas: 0/3, 0 BB, 2 K
Scutaro: 0/3, 0 BB, 2 K
Hill: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Millar: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K
Rios: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K

DISABLED LIST: Scott Eyre (L): 2.70 ERA, 6.1 BB/9, 6.1 K/9, 1.4 HR/9, 5.65 FIP, 32% GB

proj avg: 4.20 ERA, 4.1 BB/9, 8.8 K/9, 0.9 HR/9
gb: 41%
pitches: 59% fb, 35% sl, 6% ch, 0.2% cb
r/l: 1.5 vs 1.9 k/bb; .815 vs .720 ops
h/a: not much of a split

Eyre vs Blue Jays:

Overbay: 0/5, 0 BB, 1 K
Bautista: 1/1, 2 BB (1 IBB), 0 K
Rolen: 0/2, 1 BB, 1 K
Scutaro: 2/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Millar: 1/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Barajas: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Inglett: 1/1, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
McDonald: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Rios: 1 SF

Phillies vs. Red Sox: June 12-14

Matt Swartz — Fri, 12 Jun 2009 21:49:28 -0000

More photos » by Bill Kostroun - AP

Raul Ibanez gives the Phillies some momentum going into this weekend, as the 2007 and 2008 World Series Champions face off against each other. (AP Photo/Bill Kostroun)

Browse more photos »

The Phillies (35-23) come back home to face the Boston Red Sox (36-24) for a three game weekend series. Both the 2007 and the 2008 World Series Champions play this exciting series after beating up on their rivals. The Phillies have just taken two of three from the Mets at CitiField, and the Red Sox have just swept the Yankees in Boston. The Red Sox now have a two game lead over the Yankees, and the Phillies now have a four game lead over the Mets. The Mets and Yankees will face off against each other this weekend as well.

On Friday night, the Red Sox send the unlucky Jon Lester to the mound, who has dominated this year, despite having an ERA over 5. The chief culprit in Lester's bad luck has been his .353 BABIP, but an oddly high 14.5% HR/Flyball rate isn't helping either. In reality, Lester's peripheral statistics look more like a sub-4 ERA pitcher's this year. The Phillies send fellow unlucky pitcher Joe Blanton to the mound. Blanton has finally found some luck in recent starts, but he still has a .331 BABIP and a 16.0% HR/FB, both well above average, leading to a 5.46 that would probably be in the low 4's without bad luck.

On Saturday night, the Red Sox will send another unlucky righty to the mound in the person of Daisuke Matsuzaka. Matsuzaka has only thrown 27 innings this year, and has been wild on them, but his .453 BABIP belies a pitcher who has shown a good bit of skill at striking guys out with 29 in those 27 innings. The Phillies send young lefty Antonio Bastardo on the mound Saturday night. He has put together two solid starts and earned a third one in Philadelphia, but with call-up Kyle Kendrick today to replace to newly injured Scott Eyre, Bastardo probably needs to continue pitching well to keep that spot.

On Sunday afternoon, the Red Sox send ace Josh Beckett to the mound who has put together a strong season thus far. Beckett also has been a little vulernable to walks, but has also struck out a batter per inning this year. The Phillies respond with J.A. Happ, who has generally been strong since joining the rotation, but struggled against the Mets at CitiField on Tuesday night. Happ will look to rebound against the Red Sox this weekend.

MATCHUPS:
Friday, 7:05-- Joe Blanton (R) vs. Jon Lester (L)
Saturday, 7:05-- Antonio Bastardo (L) vs. Daisuke Matsuzaka (R)
Sunday, 1:35-- J.A. Happ (L) vs. Josh Beckett (R)

After the jump, I preview the players, the splits, and batter/pitcher matchups of both rosters.

RED SOX

LINE UP

1) CF Jacoby Ellsbury (L): .302/.343/.370

projection average (proj): .290/.350/.415
projected BB/PA (bb): 7.5%
projected K/AB (k): 14%
career gb% (gb): 51%
career infield flies/flyball (iff): 16%
career infield hits/groundball (ifh): 8%
batting average on balls in play tendencies (babip): projected around .325; i projected him around .300. my system was conservative based on limited data available, since he's fast and has an ability to hit the ball hard.
swing/contact/zone facts (s/c/z): not a great eye but patient, very good contact skill, sees a lot of strikes
righty/lefty (r/l): .770 vs .689 ops; 1.8 vs 2.4 k/bb
home/away (h/a): .818 vs .684 ops; 1.3 vs 3.0 k/bb
pull/opposite (p/o): spreads ball around well
anything else (other): extremely fast; good against groundball pitchers

2) 2B Dustin Pedroia (R): .306/.401/.406

proj: .310/.370/.465
bb: 8%
k: 8%
gb: 43%
iff: 24%
ifh: 5%
babip: projected around .320; i have him around .310; he does pop out a lot
s/c/z: okay eye, okay patience, great contact
r/l: .829 vs .832 ops; 1.0 vs 0.6 k/bb
h/a: .899 vs .763 ops; 0.9 vs 0.8 k/bb
p/o: pull hitter
other: none

3) RF J.D. Drew (L): .267/.393/.500

proj: .270/.385/.470
bb: 15%
k: 21%
gb: 39%
iff: 10%
ifh: 6.5%
babip: projected around .310 which is exactly where i have him.
s/c/z: very good eye and patient, average contact skill
r/l: .922 vs .798 ops; 1.1 vs 1.8 k/bb
h/a: .926 vs .860 ops; 1.1 vs 1.4 k/bb
p/o: definite pull hitter
other: better against SP as game goes on

4) 1B Kevin Youkilis (R): .350/.472/.631

proj: .285/.380/.475
bb: 12%
k: 20%
gb: 33%
iff: 5%
ifh: 9%
babip: i have him around .329 which is similar to where other systems have him. he hits the ball hard and oesn't pop up.
s/c/z: good eye and very patient, decent contact
r/l: .870 vs .884 ops; 1.7 vs 1.0 k/bb
h/a: .890 vs .858 ops; 1.4 vs 1.4 k/bb
p/o: definite pull hitter
other: none

5) LF Jason Bay (R): .277/.399/.592

proj: .270/.360/.500
bb: 12%
k: 26%
gb: 38%
iff: 7%
ifh: 12%
babip: projected around .325
s/c/z: good eye and patient, below average contact
r/l: .888 vs .932 ops; 2.0 vs 1.3 k/bb
h/a: .893 vs .905 ops; 1.6 vs 2.0 k/bb
p/o: very distinct pull hitter
other: none

6) DH David Ortiz (L): .203/.299/.338

proj: .270/.380/.500
bb: 15%
k: 19.5%
gb: 34%
iff: 8%
ifh: 3%
babip: i have him at .296 which is about where everyone else does
s/c/z: great eye, somewhat patient, slightly below average contact, sees few strikes
r/l: .965 vs .823 ops; 1.2 vs 2.1 k/bb
h/a: .945 vs .902 ops; 1.3 vs 1.4 k/bb
p/o: pull hitter
other: struggles against power pitchers moreso than others, better against groundball pitchers

7) 3B Mike Lowell (R): .292/.325/.502

proj: .275/.340/.450
bb: 8%
k: 13%
gb: 33%
iff: 12%
ifh: 5%
babip: i projected him at .300 but other systems have him slightly below.
s/c/z: good eye, patient, above average contact
r/l: .800 vs .851 ops; 1.7 vs 1.2 k/bb
h/a: .845 vs .780 ops; 1.3 vs 1.8 k/bb
p/o: definite pull hitter
other: none

8) C Jason Varitek (S): .236/.328/.497

proj: .235/.330/.385
bb: 11.5%
k: 27%
gb: 43%
iff: 11%
ifh: 4%
babip: projected around .290 but i had him around .280
s/c/z: good eye, somewhat patient, somewhat bad contact
r/l: .767 vs .839 ops; 2.0 vs 1.7 k/bb
h/a: .815 vs .761 ops; 1.9 vs 2.0 k/bb
p/o: pull hitter both ways but not extreme
other: none

(9) SS Julio Lugo (R): .256/.330/.341

proj: .260/.330/.370
bb: 9%
k: 17%
gb: 49%
iff: 10%
ifh: 8%
babip: i projected him around .308 which other systems were similar to.
s/c/z: patient with good eye, decent contact
r/l: .832 vs .628 ops; 2.5 vs 2.5 k/bb
h/a: .805 vs .747 ops; 2.1 vs 3.1 k/bb
p/o: pull hitter
other: none

BENCH

C George Kottaras (L): .212/.271/.346

proj: .235/.330/.405
bb: 10%
k: 25%
gb: 34%
iff: 6%
ifh: 0%
babip: projected all over the place but averages about average
s/c/z: good eye, poor contact
r/l: .660 vs .419 ops thus far
h/a: not enough info
p/o: not enough info
other: none

SS Nick Green (R): .279/.336/.419

proj: .240/.290/.390
bb: 7%
k: 26%
gb: 39%
iff: 11%
ifh: 6%
babip: projected around average
s/c/z: okay eye but not patient, below average contact, sees a lot of strikes
r/l: .642 vs .732 ops; 4.0 vs 3.0 k/bb
h/a: .674 vs .66 ops; 3.3 vs 3.7 k/bb
p/o: slight pull hitter
other: none

1B/OF Mark Kotsay (L): .286/.333/.500

proj: .270/.330/.385
bb: 8%
k: 12%
gb: 42%
iff: 6%
ifh: 3%
babip: projected around .290
s/c/z: good eye, pretty good patience, good contact skill, sees a lot of strikes
r/l: .758 vs .731 ops; 1.2 vs 1.8 k/bb
h/a: .761 vs .742 ops; 1.2 vs 1.6 k/bb
p/o: slight pull hitter
other: none

OF Rocco Baldelli (R): .259/.306/.414

proj: .280/.330/.470
bb: 6%
k: 22%
gb: 50%
iff: 15%
ifh: 10%
babip: projected around .320 whcih might be a bit high
s/c/z: somewhat poor eye and a little impatient; not good contact skill
r/l: .739 vs .836 ops; 4.8 vs 2.5 k/bb
h/a: .771 vs .761 ops; 2.8 vs 5.7 k/bb
p/o: pull hitter
other: none

ROTATION

FRIDAY OPPONENT: Jon Lester (L): 5.09 ERA, 3.2 BB/9, 10.3 K/9, 1.3 HR/9, 3.85 FIP, 44% GB

proj avg: 4.10 ERA, 3.5 BB/9, 6.8 K/9, 0.8 HR/9
gb: 44%
pitches: 57% fb, 22% ct, 17% cb, 4% ch, 0.2% sl
r/l: .756 vs .734 ops; 1.8 vs 2.9 k/bb
h/a: .727 vs .774 ops; 2.1 vs 1.9 k/bb

Lester vs Phillies:

Ibanez: 3/6, 2 2B, 0 BB, 1 K
Feliz: 2/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Howard: 0/3, 0 BB, 3 K
Rollins: 1/2, 1 BB, 0 K
Ruiz: 0/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Stairs: 0/2, 1 BB, 0 K
Utley: 0/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Victorino: 1/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Werth: 2/3, 0 BB, 0 K

SATURDAY OPPONENT: Daisuke Matsuzaka (R): 7.33 ERA, 4.3 BB/9, 9.7 K/9, 4.90 FIP, 36% GB

proj avg: 3.80 ERA, 4.0 BB/9, 8.5 K/9, 0.9 HR/9
gb: 38%
pitches: 52% fb, 23% sl, 15% ct, 4% cb, 4% ch, 2% sf
r/l: .684 vs .744 ops; 2.6 vs 1.7 k/bb
h/a: .755 vs .673 ops; 1.9 vs 2.1 k/bb

Matsuzaka vs Phillies:

Ibanez: 2/11, 1 2B, 2 BB, 3 K, 1 HBP
Stairs: 4/7, 1 2B, 2 BB (1 IBB), 1 K
Feliz: 1/3, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K

SUNDAY OPPONENT: Josh Beckett (R): 3.77 ERA, 3.8 BB/9, 9.0 K/9, 3.45 FIP, 46% GB

proj avg: 3.70 ERA, 2.3 BB/9, 8.3 K/9, 1.0 HR/9
gb: 44%
pitches: 67% fb, 24% cb, 7% ch, 2% ct
r/l: .668 vs .724 ops; 3.7 vs 2.6 k/bb
h/a: .688 vs .705 ops; 2.9 vs 3.2 k/bb

Beckett vs Phillies:

Rollins: 11/43, 5 2B, 1 HR, 5 BB, 4 K
Utley: 6/22, 2 HR, 3 BB, 5 K
Stairs: 2/14, 1 HR, 1 BB, 6 K
Ibanez: 3/11, 1 3B, 1 BB, 2 K
Howard: 2/10, 1 2B, 1 HR, 0 BB, 5 K
Feliz: 4/9, 2 2B, 1 HR, 0 BB, 1 K
Ruiz: 1/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Victorino: 0/3, 0 BB, 0 K

NOT FACING US: Tim Wakefield (R): 4.50 ERA, 4.0 BB/9, 5.1 K/9, 0.7 HR/9, 4.68 FIP, 36% GB

proj avg: 4.50 ERA, 3.3 BB/9, 5.8 K/9, 1.2 HR/9
gb: 40%
pitches: 81% kn, 13% fb, 6% cb
r/l: .761 vs .717 ops; 2.0 vs 1.5 k/bb
h/a: .737 vs .744 ops; 1.9 vs 1.6 k/bb

Wakefield vs Phillies:

Stairs: 14/52, 5 2B, 3 HR, 5 BB, 7 K, 1 HBP
Ibanez: 8/28, 4 2B, 1 HR, 1 BB, 2 K
Werth: 4/8, 1 HR, 0 BB, 1 K
Rollins: 1/7, 0 BB, 2 K
Utley: 0/6, 0 BB, 1 K
Feliz: 1/5, 1 HR, 0 BB, 1 K
Dobbs: 0/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Howard: 0/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Victorino: 1/2, 0 BB, 1 K
Coste: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K

NOT FACING US: Brad Penny (R): 5.32 ERA, 2.7 BB/9, 6.0 K/9, 1.1 HR/9, 4.37 ERA, 40% GB

proj avg: 4.60 ERA, 3.4 BB/9, 5.2 K/9, 0.8 HR/9
gb: 45%
pitches: 70% fb, 16% cb, 10% sf, 4% ch
r/l: .751 vs .728 ops; 2.8 vs 1.7 k/bb
h/a: .710 vs .770 ops; 2.3 vs 2.0 k/bb

Penny vs Phillies:

Rollins: 9/47, 2 2B, 1 3B, 4 BB, 9 K
Feliz: 5/36, 2 2B, 2 BB, 9 K
Utley: 4/16, 1 HR, 1 BB, 5 K, 2 HBP
Stairs: 3/13, 1 2B, 2 BB, 2 K
Howard: 3/12, 1 HR, 2 BB, 6 K
Victorino: 1/7, 1 3B, 1 BB, 2 K
Dobbs: 2/5, 1 HR, 0 BB, 1 K
Ruiz: 1/3, 2 BB, 1 K
Ibanez: 0/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Werth: 1/2, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K
Bruntlett: 1 BB

BULLPEN

CL Jonathan Papelbon (R): 2.00 ERA, 4.3 BB/9, 9.7 K/9, 1.0 HR/9, 4.05 FIP, 32% GB

proj avg: 2.50 ERA, 1.8 BB/9, 9.5 K/9, 0.7 HR/9
gb: 38%
pitches: 81% fb, 13% sf, 6% sl
r/l: .563 vs .550 ops; 6.4 vs 3.8 k/bb
h/a: .571 vs .541 ops; 4.5 vs 4.8 k/bb

Papelbon vs Phillies:

Stairs: 1/4, 1 BB, 2 K
Howard: 0/3, 0 BB, 3 K
Ibanez: 0/2, 1 BB, 0 K
Rollins: 1/3, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Feliz: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Utley: 1/2, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K
Coste: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Ruiz: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K
Werth: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K

Hideki Okajima (L): 2.42 ERA, 3.5 BB/9, 10.0 K/9, 1.0 HR/9, 3.62 FIP, 26% GB

proj avg: 3.40 ERA, 3.1 BB/9, 8.4 K/9, 0.9 HR/9
gb: 37%
pitches: 54% fb, 25% cb, 21% ch, 0.1% sf in 2008; 62% fb, 21% sf, 17% cb in 2009
r/l: .586 vs .583 ops; 2.5 vs 4.0 k/bb
h/a: .677 vs .498 ops; 3.1 vs 2.9 k/bb

Okajima vs Phillies:

Ibanez: 0/4, 0 BB, 2 K
Stairs: 1/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Utley: 0/2, 0 BB, 1 K
Victorion: 0/2, 0 BB, 1 K
Coste: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K
Howard: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K
Rollins: 1/1, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K

Ramon Ramirez (R): 1.86 ERA, 2.8 BB/9, 5.0 K/9, 0.9 HR/9, 4.36 FIP, 36% GB

proj avg: 3.80 ERA, 3.8 BB/9, 8.0 K/9, 0.7 HR/9
gb: 41%
pitches: 48% fb, 19% sl, 33% ch, 0.4% sf
r/l: .565 vs .716 ops; 2.8 vs 1.7 k/bb
h/a: .677 vs .577 ops; 2.3 vs 2.3 k/bb

Ramirez vs Phillies:

Feliz: 2/7, 1 2B, 0 BB, 2 K
Howard: 0/2, 0 BB, 1 K
Rollins: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Utley: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Ibanez: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K

Manny Delcarmen (R): 2.08 ERA, 4.2 BB/9, 6.6 K/9, 0.0 HR/9, 3.35 FIP, 44% GB

proj avg: 3.40 ERA, 3.4 BB/9, 8.4 K/9, 0.7 HR/9
gb: 48%
pitches: 67% fb, 18% cb, 15% ch
r/l: .660 vs .652 ops; 3.6 vs 1.5 k/bb
h/a: .619 vs .693 ops; 1.9 vs 3.0 k/bb

Delcarmen vs Phillies:

Ibanez: 0/4, 0 BB, 2 K
Victorino: 1/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Howard: 0/2, 0 BB, 2 K
Rollins: 1/1, 1 BB, 0 K
Coste: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K
Dobbs: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Stairs: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K
Utley: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K

Takashi Saito (R): 2.53 ERA, 2.5 BB/9, 8.9 K/9, 0.8 HR/9, 3.60 FIP, 22% GB

proj avg: 3.10 ERA, 2.9 BB/9, 9.0 K/9, 0.6 HR/9
gb: 40%
pitches: 65% fb, 26% sl, 9% cb, 0.1% ch
r/l: .486 vs .578 ops; 5.0 vs 4.2 k/bb
h/a: .517 vs .548 ops; 4.4 vs 5.1 k/bb

Saito vs Phillies:

Feliz: 1/8, 1 BB, 4 K
Dobbs: 1/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Bruntlett: 1 BB
Howard: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K
Rollins: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Ruiz: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Stairs: 1/1, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K
Victorino: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K

Daniel Bard (R): 0.82 ERA, 2.4 BB/9, 8.2 K/9, 0.0 HR/9, 2.08 FIP, 29% GB

proj avg: 4.80 ERA, 4.8 BB/9, 7.8 K/9, 1.1 HR/9
gb: 51% in minors
pitches: 77% fb, 20% sl, 3% ch early in 2009
r/l: not enough info
h/a: not enough info

Bard: has not played any Phillies

Justin Masterson (R): 4.14 ERA, 3.1 BB/9, 7.4 K/9, 0.7 HR/9, 3.80 FIP, 53% GB

proj avg: 4.10 ERA, 3.8 BB/9, 7.7 K/9, 0.9 HR/9
gb: 54%
pitches: 69% fb, 28% sl, 4% ch
r/l: .619 vs .783 ops; 2.7 vs 1.3 k/bb
h/a: not enough info

Masterson vs Phillies:

Ibanez: 0/4, 0 BB, 0 K
Rollins: 1/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Utley: 0/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Victorino: 0/2, 1 BB, 0 K
Dobbs: 1/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Howard: 1/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Ruiz: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K, 1 HBP
Werth: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K

PHILLIES

LINEUP

1) SS Jimmy Rollins (S): .226/.262/.333

projection average (proj): .285/.350/.460
projected BB/PA (bb): 8%
projected K/AB (k): 11%
career gb% (gb): 42%
career infield flies/flyball (iff): 10%
career infield hits/groundball (ifh): 5%
batting average on balls in play tendencies (babip): about average overall, though a little bit high popup rate so slightly below average
swing/contact/zone facts (s/c/z): good eye, pretty selective, but very high contact rate so low walk rate
righty/lefty (r/l): 1.7 vs 1.3 k/bb, mostly because of higher k-rate as lhb. otherwise similar on contact
home/away (h/a): 1.5 vs 1.7 k/bb; .805 vs .739 ops
pull/opposite (p/o): definite pull hitter
anything else (other): stole 47 bases in 50 attempts last year.

2) CF Shane Victorino (S): .288/.336/.450

proj: .285/.345/.430
bb: 7.5%
k: 13%
gb: 46%
iff: 15%
ifh: 8%
babip: slightly above average due to high babip on groundballs-- partly because infield plays in for him and he spreads the ball around well; not that high due to high infield fly rate
s/c/z: pretety bad eye but high contact rate
r/l: much more power righthanded (1.6% to 3.8% HR rate), but much better k/bb as lefty: 1.65 vs 1.88; higher babip lefty also (.316 vs .286)
h/a: far fewer walks on road but nearly exactly the same strikeout rate, same power, same babip
p/o: pull hitter both ways
other: stole 36 of 47 bases last year

3) 2B Chase Utley (L): .302/.438/.588

proj: .295/.380/.525
bb: 9.5%
k: 18%
gb: 37%
iff: 10%
ifh: 6%
babip: distinctly above average historically and for projections too; seemingly strong power leads to high line drive babip rate and reasonably high groundball babip especially for pull hitting lefty; high on flyballs despite high infield fly rate since he hits deep flyballs
s/c/z: pretty good eye, somewhat selective, somewhat high contact rate
r/l: not significant-- only 1.7 vs 2.0 k/bb; .919 vs .865 ops
h/a: similar k/bb home & away; better hr at home-- probably park factors; higher babip at home too
p/o: pull hitter
other: much better against power pitchers relative to other hitters

4) 1B Ryan Howard (L): .253/.331/.567

proj: .275/.375/580
bb: 14%
k: 33%
gb: 40%
iff: 2%
ifh: 4%
babip: low on groundballs over time as he pulls the vast majority of them; very very high on flyballs because he almost never pops out in the infield at all and many of his flyballs are very deep. also since so few of his flyballs stay in the park (only 2/3 or so), a higher percentage of his balls in play are line drives-- which he does well on like many power hitters-- his low contact rate means he sometimes make poor contact though. probably above average overall
s/c/z: swings a lot especially for someone who doesn't see many strikes. however, he is pretty good at distinguishing pulls from strikes despite the consensus on him. he makes terrible contact overall though
r/l: 1.064 vs .786 ops: say it with me "that means he's good against righties, not bad against lefties!" in fact, he's the best hitter against righties in baseball right now probably. his k/bb vs lhp is 3.7 vs 1.6 vs rhp. he has a lot of power against lefties however, but a lower babip. i don't have split data on pull% vs lhp/rhp but observationally i'm pretty sure that's the difference in his babip: .338 vs .309.
h/a: much higher babip on road. very similar hr numbers. 2.0 vs 3.2 k/bb.
p/o: pull hitter, especially on groundballs-- hits more homeruns the opposite way though
other: struggles mightily against power pitchers and groundball pitchers, dominate flyball pitchers (since he almost never pops out, and has 10.3% hr rate) and smashes finesse pitchers (11.8% hr rate); he also does much better on babip with runners on base as defenders can't shift against him-- especially with runners in scoring position

5) RF Jayson Werth (R): .255/.351/.425

proj: .270/.360/.460
bb: 12.5%
k: 29%
gb: 38%
iff: 8%
ifh: 8%
babip: high on groundballs due to high infield hit rate, high on line drives due to power, and hits pretty deep flyballs too; has been historically probably higher than it should be since he's faced more lhp than normal rhb do; overall still seems to be very above average
s/c/z: very selective and pretty good eye; somewhat low contact rate
r/l: .762 vs .919 ops; 2.4 vs 2.0 k/bb; hr rate of 6.7% vs 2.9%
h/a: not much of a split at all
p/o: spreads ball around well for power hitter, but still a pull hitter
other: stole 20 bases in 21 attempts last year

6) LF Raul Ibanez (L): .322/.377/.674

proj: .285/.350/.480
bb: 9%
k: 17%
gb: 42%
iff: 11%
ifh: 5%
babip: above average, probably because he spreads the ball around pretty well for a power hitter; much better babip with men on-- probably hooks ball in hole well or maybe he was shifted against more so beforehand
s/c/z: definitely a good eye though it's getting worse, slightly above average contact
r/l: .850 vs .733; 1.5 vs 2.8 k/bb
h/a: better k/bb (1.6 vs 1.9) but worse power probably park factors, and probably likely to be better at home
p/o: slight pull hitter but not much for a power hitter
other: none

7) 3B Pedro Feliz (R): .312/.362/.427

proj: .250/.300/.420
bb: 6%
k: 15.5%
gb: 44%
iff: 15%
ifh: 5%
babip: very low-- pops up a lot, hits groundballs predictably to left side and is slow so they can play shaded over and deep; not all that much power so not terrific on line drives either, makes a lot of weak contact as he isn't good at making contact so he chops a lot of balls
s/c/z: high swing rate and not terribly good at distinguishing balls from strikes. swung significantly less in 2008, but it was as much of a decrease in balls as strikes, makes average contact
r/l: 3.3 vs 2.3 k/bb; .708 vs .755 ops, more babip and a little more power agaisnt lefties
h/a: much higher k rate on road, similar bb rate; more power on road, higher babip at home. likely not much difference (.725 vs .716 overall ops)
p/o: definite pull hitter
other: defensive numbers dipped last year, had offseason surgery for back, perhaps these are related

8) C Carlos Ruiz (R): .287/.410/.475

proj: .255/.335/.390
bb: 10%
k: 14%
gb: 50% (but rose in 2008 to 54% from 46%)
iff: 9.5%
ifh: 4%
babip: was extraordinarily low in 2008, but that seems to be rather flukey. his high groundball rate and solid contact rate and pitch selection indicate he should be a good babip guy, but he does very poorly on groundball as he chops the ball a lots/c/z: very good eye and excellent contact skill, extremely patient
r/l: bizarre reverse split despite 0.5 k/bb vs lhp and 1.2 vs rhp; impossibly low .204 babip against lhp, probably flukey and probably much better vs lhp in reality
h/a: similar k/bb, worse babip but higher power at home (park factors)
p/o: slight pull hitter
other: better against power pitchers, currently on DL with strained rib cage, probably longer than 15 days as originally thought

BENCH:

C Chris Coste (R): .253/.356/.440

proj: .265/.315/.405
bb: 5.5%
k: 17.5%
gb: 40%
iff: 10%
ifh: 6%
babip: slightly below average, seemingly due to poor eye and swinging and hitting bad pitches
s/c/z: high swing rate, pretty poor eye, average contact
r/l: .747 vs .855; same k/bb rate, much better babip against lhp, similar power but slightly more vs lhp
h/a: .886 vs .679; 5.4% vs 1.5% hr rate
p/o: pull hitter
other: struggles with power pitchers somewhat

IF/OF Eric Bruntlett (R): .152/.226/.239

proj: .240/.325/.335
bb: 10%
k: 18%
gb: 41%
iff: 14%
ifh: 5%
babip: high popup rate leads to low babip, but not that low; also doesn't do all that well on line drives due to lack of power
s/c/z: somewhat above average eye and doesn't swing much; makes very good contact, sees a lot of strikes
r/l: .592 vs .764 ops; 2.5 vs 1.2 k/bb; 5.7% vs 8.8% xbh/ab-- he's actually average if not above average against lhp; he just is terrible against rhb. he should be used as a counterswitch to loogy use against lefty pinch hitters
h/a: more power at home and more walks at home; similar strikeout rate and babip
p/o: opposite field hitter
other: none

IF Greg Dobbs (L): .196/.276/.353

proj: .285/.335/.445
bb: 7%
k: 17%
gb: 36%
iff: 13.5%
ifh: 3%
babip: has been high but probably should not be projected as high-- success derives from impossibly high line drive babip which doesn't typically happen for non-extreme power hitters. given his popup rate, he probably isn't a .320 babip guy and there isn't a .285 hitter
s/c/z: poor eye but very high swing rate; average contact rate
r/l: .761 vs .579 ops despite impossible .481 babip against lhp. in reality, he strikes out in 48% of at-bats against lhp. he should never see them. absolutely no power against lefties also.
h/a: virtually no split at all
p/o: pull hitter
other: much better against finesse pitchers

OF Matt Stairs (L): .306/.479/.583

proj: .255/.340/.440
bb: 11%
k: 22%
gb: 42%
iff: 11.5%
ifh: 5%
babip: average all around
s/c/z: very good eye and slightly below average contact
r/l: .862 vs .748; much more power against rhp; 1.4 vs 2.1 k/bb
h/a: not much of a split at all
p/o: slight pull hitter but not much for a power hitter
other: use stairs in case of emergency

IF Paul Bako (L): .000/.000/.000

proj: .220/.290/.295
bb: 9%
k: 30%
gb: 53%
iff: 7%
ifh: 6%
babip: projcted around .285
s/c/z: average eye, average patience, below average contact
r/l: .637 vs .522 ops; 2.2 vs 6.1 k/bb
h/a: .621 vs .621 ops; 2.5 vs 2.6 k/bb
p/o: very slight pull hitter, but spreads ball around pretty well
other: none

ROTATION

FRIDAY STARTER: Joe Blanton (R): 5.46 ERA, 2.9 BB/9, 8.1 K/9, 1.7 HR/9, 4.78 FIP, 40% GB

proj avg: 4.25 ERA, 2.5 BB/9, 5.8 K/9, 0.9 HR/9
gb: 45%
pitches: 56% fb, 16% ch, 15% sl, 12% cb
r/l: 2.3 vs 1.8 k/bb; .750 vs .719 ops
h/a: 2.2 vs 2.0 k/bb; .698 vs .776 ops; much worse babip away (.313 vs .282), more power surrendered on road
other: extraordinarily good against leadoff hitters, especially the first hitter of games

Blanton vs Red Sox:

Lugo: 7/26, 2 2B, 2 BB, 3 K
Ortiz: 6/20, 2 HR, 3 BB, 2 K, 1 SF
Varitek: 5/22, 2 2B, 1 BB, 6 K
Youkilis: 6/18, 1 3B, 3 BB, 5 K, 1 SF
Lowell: 4/20, 1 BB, 4 K
Pedroia: 3/12, 2 2B, 3 BB, 0 K
Drew: 4/12, 0 BB, 1 K, 1 SF
Ellsbury: 2/11, 0 BB, 2 K
Baldelli: 0/8, 0 BB, 1 K
Green: 0/4, 1 BB, 2 K, 1 SF
Kotsay: 1/1, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K

SATURDAY STARTER: Antonio Bastardo (L): 2.45 ERA, 1.6 BB/9, 7.4 K/9, 0.8 HR/9, 3.45 FIP, 32% GB

proj avg: 5.60 ERA, 4.8 BB/9, 7.0 K/9, 1.9 HR/9
gb: 40% in minors
pitches: ?
r/l: 2.1 vs 4.1 k/bb in minor league career
h/a: much better control at home in minor league control

Bastardo: has not faced any Red Sox

SUNDAY STARTER: J.A. Happ (L): 2.98 ERA, 3.6 BB/9, 6.8 K/9, 1.0 HR/9, 4.41 FIP, 35% GB

proj avg: 4.40 ERA, 3.8 BB/9, 7.7 K/9, 1.2 HR/9
gb: 29% in majors thus far; 42% in AAA in 2008
pitches: 64% fb, 18% ch, 14% sl, 2% ct, 2% cb
r/l: 1.7 vs 3.0 k/bb in majors thus far; 2.7 vs 3.5 k/bb in AAA in 2008
h/a: not enough info

Happ: has not played any Red Sox

NOT STARTING THIS SERIES: Cole Hamels (L): 4.62 ERA, 1.7 BB/9, 8.1 K/9, 1.4 HR/9, 4.00 FIP, 41% GB

proj avg: 3.45 ERA, 2.3 BB/9, 8.4 K/9, 1.1 HR/9
gb: 40%
pitches: 55% fb, 32% ch, 14% cb
r/l: .680 vs .748, but same 3.6 k/bb both ways; slightly more power vs lhb-- this is probably selection bias as managers withhold all but the best lefties against him (explaining 20% of hitters faced are lefties only)
h/a: 3.85 vs 3.4 k/bb; .676 vs .709 ops-- less of a difference due to higher HR rate at home
other: much higher k-rate at night: 25% vs 20%, which is statistically significant. ERA difference (4.71 vs 3.01 exaggerated by babip difference), as HR rate and XBH rate very similar. most likely he strikes out more at night.

Hamels vs Red Sox:

Lugo: 3/5, 1 2B, 2 HR, 1 BB, 0 K
Drew: 1/3, 1 HR, 1 BB, 1 K
Ellsbury: 0/4, 0 BB, 0 K
Pedroia: 3/4, 1 2B, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K
Bay: 1/2, 1 2B, 0 BB, 1 K, 1 SF
Kotsay: 1/4, 0 BB, 0 K
Lowell: 0/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Varitek: 0/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Baldelli: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K

NOT STARTING THIS SERIES: Jamie Moyer (L): 6.11 ERA, 2.2 BB/9, 4.9 K/9, 1.9 HR/9, 5.74 FIP, 40% GB

proj avg: 4.80 ERA, 2.8 BB/9, 5.5 K/9, 1.2 HR/9
gb: 39%
pitches: 41% fb, 30% ct, 24% ch, 6% cb
r/l: virtually no split but that seems to be selection as he sees 24% lefties only compared with 32% league average for lhp
h/a: 2.3 vs 1.9 k/bb; not much difference on contact; slightly better babip at home but not more so than the average starter gets

Moyer vs Red Sox:

Ortiz: 13/36, 6 2B, 1 3B, 5 HR, 3 BB, 2 K, 4 HBP
Varitek: 8/34, 2 2B, 1 HR, 5 BB, 9 K
Moyer: 19/33, 5 2B, 1 3B, 1 HR, 1 BB, 1 K, 1 SF, 1 HBP
Lugo: 7/15, 2 2B, 1 3B, 2 BB, 4 K, 1 Sac
Baldelli: 1/10, 0 BB, 2 K, 1 Sac
Youkilis: 2/6, 1 2B, 1 HR, 3 BB, 2 K
Bay: 3/8, 1 2B, 1 HR, 0 BB, 1 K
Drew: 1/7, 0 BB, 1 K
Lowell: 3/5, 1 2B, 1 BB, 0 K
Pedroia: 0/2, 1 BB, 0 K

BULLPEN

Ryan Madson (R): 2.08 ERA, 2.7 BB/9, 9.5 K/9, 0.0 HR/9, 1.87 FIP, 44% GB

proj avg: 3.80 ERA, 2.9 BB/9, 7.2 K/9, 0.8 HR/9
gb: 48%
pitches: 58% fb, 24% ch, 15% ct, 4% cb
r/l: 3.65 vs 1.8 k/bb; .714 vs .786 ops
h/a: no major split at all

Madson vs Red Sox:

Lowell: 0/7, 1 BB, 2 K
Drew: 2/6, 1 3B, 1 BB, 1 K
Green: 2/5, 0 BB, 1 K
Lugo: 2/4, 1 2B, 1 BB, 0 K
Ortiz: 1/4, 1 2B, 1 BB, 0 K
Varitek: 1/4, 1 2B, 0 BB, 2 K
Bay: 2/3, 0 BB, 1 K
Youkilis: 1/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Kotsay: 1/1, 1 BB, 0 K
Pedroia: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K

Jack Taschner (L): 3.74 ERA, 6.2 BB/9, 4.6 K/9, 0.8 HR/9, 5.62 FIP, 35% GB

proj avg: 4.50 ERA, 4.1 BB/9, 8.0 K/9, 1.0 HR/9
gb: 35%
pitches: 57% fb, 30% sl, 13% ch
r/l: 1.45 vs 2.2 k/bb; .754 vs .747-- large selection bias where he faces only very good lefties and not very good righties
h/a: .698 vs .797 ops; 2.1 vs 1.5 k/bb

Taschner vs Red Sox:

Kotsay: 1/3, 0 BB, 1 K
Bay: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K
Drew: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Lowell: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Lugo: 1 BB
Pedroia: 1/1, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Youkilis: 1 BB

Chad Durbin (R): 4.22 ERA, 5.3 BB/9, 7.9 K/9, 0.8 HR/9, 5.52 FIP, 36% GB

proj avg: 4.10 ERA, 3.5 BB/9, 6.5 K/9, 1.0 HR/9
gb: 41%
pitches: 47% fb, 38% sl, 8% ch, 7% cb, 1% ct
r/l: virtually no split
h/a: somewhat of a reverse split but probably just noise

Durbin vs Red Sox:

Varitek: 2/8, 1 BB, 3 K
Lowell: 1/5, 1 2B, 1 BB, 1 K
Ortiz; 0/3, 2 BB, 1 K, 1 HBP
Drew: 3/5, 0 BB, 0 K
Lugo: 1/2, 0 BB, 1 K, 1 SF, 1 HBP
Pedroia: 0/2, 1 BB, 0 K, 1 HBP
Youkilis: 1/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Kotsay: 0/3, 1 BB, 1 K
Bailey: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K
Bay: 1 BB

Clay Condrey (R): 2.27 ERA, 2.8 BB/9, 6.0 K/9, 1.1 HR/9, 4.35 FIP, 50% GB

proj avg: 4.50 ERA, 2.8 BB/9, 4.9 K/9, 0.8 HR/9
gb: 50%
pitches: 59% fb, 17% ct, 15% sl, 9% ch
r/l: 2.1 vs 1.3 k/bb; .761 vs .842 ops
h/a: .703 vs .898 ops; 2.2 vs 1.3 k/bb

Condrey vs Red Sox:

Drew: 2/4, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Lowell: 0/3, 1 BB, 1 K
Ellsbury: 0/3, 0 BB, 1 K
Bay: 0/2, 0 BB, 1 K
Pedroia: 2/2, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Varitek: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Condrey: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Lugo: 1/1, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Ortiz: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Youkilis: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K

Chan Ho Park (R): 6.50 ERA, 4.5 BB/9, 6.5 K/9, 1.0 HR/9, 4.87 FIP, 43% GB

proj avg: 4.50 ERA, 3.5 BB/9, 7.3 K/9, 1.2 HR/9
gb: 45%
pitches: 51% FB, 29% SL, 12% cb, 5% ch, 4% ct
r/l: .666 vs .820 ops; 2.6 vs 1.3 k/bb; .280 vs .301 babip; 2.6% vs 3.6% HR rate-- much better against righties
h/a: 2.0 vs 1.7 k/bb; .708 vs .780 ops

Park vs Red Sox:

Kotsay: 10/32, 2 2B, 1 3b, 1 HR, 4 BB, 3 K
Drew: 6/20, 2 2B, 1 HR, 2 BB, 8 K
Ortiz: 1/9, 1 HR, 2 BB, 2 K
Lugo: 1/9, 1 HR, 0 BB, 4 K, 1 HBP
Lowell: 0/8, 0 BB, 3 K, 1 HBP
Varitek: 2/9, 0 BB, 3 K
Bay: 2/5, 1 2B, 1 HR, 1 BB, 2 K
Baldelli: 1/3, 1 BB, 1 K

J.C. Romero (L): 0.00 ERA, 5.4 BB/9, 7.2 K/9, 0.0 HR/9, 3.28 FIP, 39% GB

proj avg: 4.00 ERA, 5.5 BB/9, 7.5 K/9, 0.7 HR/9
gb: 55%
pitches: 58% fb, 25% sl, 17% ch, 0.1% cb
r/l: 1.2 vs 2.2 k/bb; .814 vs. 591 ops
h/a: 1.6 vs 1.3 k/bb; .697 vs .768 ops

Romero vs Red Sox:

Kotsay: 2/9, 1 BB, 0 K
Varitek: 0/6, 2 BB, 3 K
Ortiz: 1/5, 1 BB, 1 K
Baldelli: 0/4, 0 BB, 1 K
Drew: 1/4, 0 BB, 1 K
Lugo: 1/3, 1 2B, 0 BB, 1 K
Ellsbury: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K
Green: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Lowell: 1 BB
Pedroia: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K

Kyle Kendrick (R): AAA STATS: 4.03 ERA, 2.8 BB/9, 5.2 K/9, 0.7 HR/9, 4.13 FIP, 53% GB

proj avg: 4.90 ERA, 2.9 BB/9, 4.3 K/9, 1.1 HR/9
gb: 45.5%
pitches: 72% fb, 21% sl, 6% ch, 0.5% cb for 2007-08 (allegedly has been working on changeup in AAA this year)
r/l: .704 vs .937 ops; 3.0 vs 0.7 k/bb
h/a: .791 vs .852 ops; 1.6 vs 1.25 k/bb

Kendrick vs. Red Sox:

Kotsay: 1/8, 1 BB, 1 K
Bay: 0/6, 0 BB, 1 K
Drew: 2/2, 1 2B, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K
Ellsbury: 1/2, 0 BB, 1 K
Lowell: 1/1, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K, 1 HBP
Lugo: 0/1, 1 BB, 1 K
Pedroia: 1/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Varitek: 0/1, 1 BB, 0 K

DISABLED LIST: Brad Lidge (R): 7.27 ERA, 4.8 BB/9, 9.7 K/9, 2.4 HR/9, 6.20 FIP, 38% GB

proj avg: 3.50 ERA, 4.1 BB?9, 11.0 K/9, 0.8 HR/9
gb: 41% (though this went up to 46% with increased slider use in 2008)
pitches: 56% sl, 43% fb, 0.4% ch in 2008 (historically 54% fb, 42% sl)
r/l: 3.6 vs 2.8 k/bb; .601 vs .686 ops (tough to tell if that tendency became more or less extreme in 2008 due to limited sample size)
h/a: 3.6 vs 2.9 k/bb; .666 vs .614 ops though due to higher babip away
other: HR/Flyball plummeted in 2008-- probably unsustainably low and his ERA should rise; still rumors of him tipping pitches explain the HR/Flyball spike in 2006 & 2007

Lidge vs Red Sox:

Bay: 6/15, 2 HR, 2 BB, 6 K
Drew: 2/5, 2 BB (1 IBB), 0 K
Lowell: 0/4, 0 BB, 2 K
Varitek: 0/2, 0 BB, 2 K
Baldelli: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K
Lugo: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Ortiz: 1 BB

DISABLED LIST: Scott Eyre (L): 2.70 ERA, 6.1 BB/9, 6.1 K/9, 1.4 HR/9, 5.97 FIP, 32% GB

proj avg: 4.20 ERA, 4.1 BB/9, 8.8 K/9, 0.9 HR/9
gb: 41%
pitches: 59% fb, 35% sl, 6% ch, 0.2% cb
r/l: 1.5 vs 1.9 k/bb; .815 vs .720 ops
h/a: not much of a split

Eyre vs Red Sox:

Varitek: 3/8, 1 HR, 1 BB (IBB), 4 K
Kotsay: 2/8, 5 BB, 0 K
Ortiz: 0/5, 0 BB, 3 K, 1 SF
Drew: 0/4, 1 BB, 0 K
Lowell: 0/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Lugo: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K

Phillies at Mets: June 9-11

Matt Swartz — Tue, 09 Jun 2009 22:30:14 -0000

More photos » by Lori Shepler - AP

Cole Hamels and the Phillies head to New York to face the Mets. (AP Photo/Lori Shepler)

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The Phillies (33-22) head back east to face their rivals up north, The New York Mets (30-25), this week for a three games series. The Mets have taken three of four games from the Phillies thus far in the season series, but the Phillies will get a chance to go up against a very hobbled Mets team. The Mets are without four above average baseball players-- Jose Reyes, Carlos Delgado, Oliver Perez, J.J. Putz-- and a number of people who replaced them, including Angel Pagan and Ramon Martinez. Many others have had injuries as well. With probably 13 WAR of talent on the DL, the Mets are an average team, and the Phillies are not. With a three game lead, it's pretty clear how much this series can tell the story. If the Mets sweep, the Phillies early advantage will have completely eroded. If the Phillies sweep, the Phillies will have built a six-game lead that people will be floored if they lose. If the Phillies take two of three, they come out with a solid four game lead, and if the Mets take two of three, they have closed the gap to just two games. Clearly, a lot of the story of the first 58 games depends on this series.

The Mets sent their ace, Johan Santana, to the mound against the Phillies' J.A. Happ for game one. This doesn't look promising for the Phillies, but the two faced off once before with an outcome that many did not expect.

In game two, the Phillies will send out their ace, Cole Hamels, to the mound, against Mike Pelfrey. Pelfrey has a mediocre ERA of 4.85, but even that is lucky as he has allowed exactly zero homeruns this year on 60 flyballs-- which probably has lowered his ERA by nearly a point and a half.

The series finale will pit Jamie Moyer up against Tim Redding in a game that could very well screw with the CitiField park factors. Moyer has put together a couple solid starts in a row, but still has struggled mightily this season, especially against good teams. Tim Redding is probably not who the Mets intended to throw out against the Phillies in possible rubber matches, but then, again Alex Cora wasn't their intended shortstop either.

MATCHUPS:

Tuesday, 7:10-- J.A. Happ (L) vs Johan Santana (L)

Wednesday, 7:10-- Cole Hamels (L) vs Mike Pelfrey (R)

Thursday, 7:10-- Jamie Moyer (L) vs Tim Redding (R)

(Thursday starter typo edited thanks to some helpful comments)

METS

LINE UP

1) IF Alex Cora (L): .297/.403/.406

proj: .245/.320/.345
bb: 7%
k: 12%
gb: 47%
iff: 13%
ifh: 4%
babip: below average as he's slow and pops out a lot, and also doesn't have very hard contact
s/c/z: very good contact, average eye but pretty patient
r/l: 1.6 vs 3.0 k/bb; but .656 vs .686 ops-- main difference is babip and probably doesn't face top lefties
h/a: slightly better at home
p/o: slight pull hitter
other: none

2) 2B Luis Castillo (S): .277/.378/.329

proj: .275/.355/.350
bb: 10.5%
k: 10.5%
gb: 63%
iff: 10%
ifh: 11%
babip:
s/c/z: great eye, good patience, excellent contact skill, sees more strikes than most
r/l: .697 vs .797; but almost entirely due to power difference-- 2 HR in 4242 AB as lefty and 24 HR in 1504 AB as righty
h/a: not much difference
p/o: slight pulll hitter as righty, almost never pulls ball as lefty
other: none

3) CF Carlos Beltran (S): .342/.436/.554

proj: .275/.360/.500
bb: 13%
k: 18%
gb: 42%
iff: 12%
ifh: 7%
babip: slightly below average-- pops up somewhat frequently, and predictably pull hitting
s/c/z: good eye and above average contact though his eye isn't as good as it used to be
r/l: .844 vs .880; only slight difference in babip makes difference
h/a: .841 vs .865, probably just park factors though
p/o: definite pull hitter both sides
other: better against power pitchers

4) LF Gary Sheffield (R): .259/.394/.455

proj: .250/.340/.420
bb: 12%
k: 17%
gb: 43%
iff: 16%
ifh: 9%
babip: sinking
s/c/z: had good eye though not really more than average anymore, still making slightly above average contact
r/l: .897 vs .947, not much difference overall though
h/a: .932 vs .887, 0.7 vs 0.9 k/bb
p/o: definite pull hitter
other: none

5) 3B David Wright (R): .345/.448/.500

proj: .310/.395/.535
bb: 13%
k: 19%
gb: 37%
iff: 11%
ifh: 8%
babip: makes very solid contact and has decent contact skill, so above average, especially since he spreads the ball around well. expect .325ish on balls in play
s/c/z: great eye, slightly above average contact, and sees a lot of strikes for a guy of his skill (lineup spot)
r/l: .888/1.018; 1.7 vs 1.0 k/bb; .322 vs .350 babip; a little more power vs lhp as well. just use righties
h/a: .959 vs .886; 1.2 vs 1.8 k/bb; especially large difference given park effects
p/o: spreads ball around very well for a power hitter
other: none

6) LF Daniel Murphy (L): .247/.330/.370

proj: .270/.330/.440
bb: 8.5%
k: 16%
gb: 44%
iff: 8%
ifh: 2%
babip: projected high because it was high last year, but highly suspect due to lack of infield hits or major power, probably closer to average. last year, he put a lot of groundballs in the hole, but in 58 groundballs, probably 18 getting through the hole is just noise. does spread ball around well, but expect only slightly above average babip
s/c/z: poor eye but above average contact
r/l: some struggles against lefties in minors but not much, need more info
h/a: not enough info
p/o: spreads ball around well
other: has done well against power pitchers in minimal experience...too early to tell though if this is a legit skill or noise

7) RF Ryan Church (L): .277/.331/.362

proj: .270/.340/.440
bb: 10%
k: 24%
gb: 43%
iff: 9%
ifh: 5%
babip:
s/c/z: swings slightly more than average and makes contact less than average
r/l: .836 vs .730 ops; 2.2 vs 3.0 k/bb even though he is mostly sheltered from tough lefties
h/a: .786 vs .833 ops but 2.2 vs 2.5 k/bb
p/o: definite pull hitter
other: none

(8) C Brian Schneider (L): .219/.316/.313

proj: .250/.330/.360
bb: 11%
k: 16%
gb: 49%
iff: 10%
ifh: 4%
babip:
s/c/z: good eye, average contact skill, sees more strikes than most
r/l: .719 vs .624 ops; 1.4 vs 2.0 k/bb
h/a: .716 vs .684 ops; 1.4 vs 1.7 k/bb
p/o: definite pull hitter
other: none

BENCH

C Omir Santos (R): .261/.287/.435

proj: .245/.290/.330
bb: 6%
k: 20%
gb: 43% in minors in 2008
iff: 13% in minors in 2008
ifh: none yet in majors, can't find information on infield hits in minors, but he is a catcher.
babip: projected around .280 or so, which seems consistent with infield fly rate and speed
s/c/z: thus far, bad eye and slightly above average contact
r/l: seemingly better against lefties as expected but tough to see
h/a: not enough info
p/o: not enough info
other: none

IF Wilson Valdez (R): .200/.238/.350

proj: .245/.305/.340
bb: 8%
k: 16%
gb: 59%
iff: 10%
ifh: 5%
babip: projected around .290
s/c/z: slightly poor eye, somewhat impatient, average contact, sees a lot of strikes
r/l: .526 vs .535 ops; 3.4 vs 2.7 k/bb
h/a: .594 vs .459 ops; 1.6 vs 10.5 k/bb
p/o: opposite field hitter
other: none

OF Fernando Martinez (L): .200/.300/.314

proj: .250/.305/.380
bb: 6%
k: 22%
gb: 48% in minors
iff: 10% in minors
ifh: ?
babip: projected all over the place, probably about average
s/c/z: ?
r/l: no splits in minors
h/a: not enough info
p/o: not enough info
other: none

OF Jeremy Reed (L): .311/.344/.393

proj: .270/.320/.390
bb: 7%
k: 13%
gb: 49%
iff: 13%
ifh: 5%
babip: slightly below average due to weak power and popup rate
s/c/z: decent eye and contact skill
r/l: .723 vs .433 ops; no power vs lefties at all
h/a: not much difference
p/o: slight pull hitter
other: better against groundball pitchers

OF Fernando Tatis (R): .273/.345/.404

proj: .265/.335/.435
bb: 9%
k: 21%
gb: 44%
iff: 7%
ifh: 6%
babip: about average
s/c/z: decent eye but not so patient, below average contact
r/l: virtually no difference
h/a: 2.0 vs 2.3 k/bb; .796 vs .784 ops-- main difference is k/bb which itself isn't high
p/o: pull hitter
other: struggles against flyball pitchers

DISABLED LIST: SS Ramon Martinez: (R): .167/.182/.214

proj: .250/.310/.320
bb: 8%
k: 13%
gb: 41%
iff: 8%
ifh: 4%
babip: below average, projected around .280
s/c/z: good eye, patient, good contact, thrown a lot of strikes
r/l: .670 vs .738 ops; 1.7 vs 1.3 k/bb
h/a: .741 vs .641 ops; 1.2 vs 2.0 k/bb
p/o: somewhat of a pull hitter
other: none

DISABLED LIST: OF Angel Pagan: (S): .333/.429/.405

proj: .260/.315/.385
bb: 8%
k: 20%
gb: 44%
iff: 10%
ifh: 8%
babip: about average (.300)
s/c/z: good eye, patient, good contact
r/l: .761 vs .662 ops; 2.1 vs 2.3 k/bb
h/a: .855 vs .593 ops; 1.7 vs 2.6 k/bb
p/o: pull hitter as a righty, spreads ball around well lefty
other: none

DISABLED LIST: SS Jose Reyes (S): .279/.355/.395

projection average (proj): .295/.355/.460
projected BB/PA (bb): 8.5%
projected K/AB (k): 12%
career gb% (gb): 45%
career infield flies/flyball (iff): 11%
career infield hits/groundball (ifh): 8%
batting average on balls in play tendencies (babip): pretty high due to speed, and does well on groundballs, should do decently on line drives due to power and infield playing in, but he does pop up a decent amount, maybe around .310
swing/contact/zone facts (s/c/z): average eye, makes above average contact
righty/lefty (r/l): .766/.792 ops; 1.4 vs 1.6 k/bb; power similar, babip slightly better vs lhp
home/away (h/a): very similar except better babip at home by a lot .326/.294 causing OPS diff .790/.756
pull/opposite (p/o): pull hitter
anything else (other):

DISABLED LIST: 1B Carlos Delgado (L): .298/.393/.521

proj: .260/.350/.485
bb: 10%
k: 22%
gb: 39% career but 44% last year
iff: 9%
ifh: 3%
babip: below average-- tends to poorly on groundballs partly because of speed and also because of shift
s/c/z: swings a lot and makes pretty bad contact, sees fewer strikes than most
r/l: .983 vs .805 ops; 1.3 vs 2.0 k/bb
h/a: .942 vs .919 ops; 1.5 vs 1.7 k/bb
p/o: pull hitter
other: none

ROTATION

TUESDAY'S STARTER: Johan Santana (L): 2.00 ERA, 2.6 BB/9, 11.1 K/9, 0.8 HR/9, 2.69 FIP, 33% GB

proj avg: 3.25 ERA, 2.4 BB/9, 9.0 K/9, 1.0 HR/9
gb: 38%
pitches: 60% fb, 29% ch, 12% sl
r/l: .637 vs .660 ops; 3.8 vs 3.6 k/bb-- virtually no difference, somewhat of a reverse platoon split but almost definitely is selection bias where managers rest bad lefties against him
h/a: 3.9 vs 3.6 k/bb; .634 vs .651 ops

Santana vs. Phillies

Ibanez: 13/37, 1 2B, 1 HR, 2 BB, 10 K, 1 SF, 1 HBP
Feliz: 3/22, 0 BB, 7 K
Rollins: 2/20, 1 BB, 2 K
Utley: 3/20, 1 HR, 1 BB, 3 K
Werth: 5/19, 1 HR, 1 BB, 6 K
Howard: 6/17, 2 HR, 2 BB, 4 K
Stairs: 4/15, 1 HR, 1 BB, 6 K
Ruiz: 3/10, 0 BB, 1 K
Victorino: 1/15, 1 HR, 0 BB, 2 K
Coste: 0/8, 1 BB, 2 K
Bruntlett: 1/5, 0 BB, 2 K

WEDNESDAY'S OPPONENT: Mike Pelfrey (R): 4.85 ERA, 9.0 BB/9, 6.8 K/9, 0.0 HR/9, 4.62 FIP, 53% GB

proj avg: 4.20 ERA, 3.4 BB/9, 5.7 K/9, 0.7 HR/9
gb: 49%
pitches: 81% fb (includes sinkers), 13% sl, 5% ch, 1% cb
r/l: .698 vs .850 ops; 2.5 vs 0.8 k/bb-- major advantage for lhb against him
h/a: 1.7 vs 1.15 k/bb; .730 vs .828 ops

Pelfrey vs. Phillies:

Howard: 5/14, 1 2B, 1 HR, 4 BB, 2 K
Utley: 3/15, 1 2B, 2 HR, 2 BB, 1 K, 1 HBP
Victorino: 4/15, 0 BB, 3 K
Rollins: 3/12, 1 HR, 1 BB, 0 K
Werth: 4/11, 1 2B, 1 BB, 3 K
Dobbs: 5/10, 1 2B, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K
Coste: 2/9, 0 BB, 0 K
Feliz: 3/7, 1 BB, 0 K
Ruiz: 1/7, 0 BB, 1 K
Ibanez: 2/6, 0 BB, 0 K
Bruntlett: 1/4, 1 BB, 0 K

THURSDAY'S STARTER: Tim Redding (R): 6.97 ERA, 5.2 BB/9, 5.2 K/9, 0.9 HR/9, 5.11 FIP, 34% GB

proj avg: 4.80 ERA, 3.4 BB/9, 6.0 K/9, 1.2 HR/9
gb: 41%
pitches: 65% fb, 15% sl, 14% cb, 6% ch, 0.1% ct
r/l: .781 vs .826 ops; 2.2 vs 1.2 k/bb
h/a: .789 vs .816 ops; 1.8 vs 1.5 k/bb

Redding vs Phillies:

Rollins: 5/32, 1 2B, 3 BB, 7 K
Howard: 3/21, 1 2B, 2 BB (1 IBB), 9 K
Utley: 8/18, 1 2B, 2 HR, 2 BB, 0 K, 1 HBP
Victorino: 6/16, 0 BB, 0 K, 1 HBP
Feliz: 5/16, 1 2B, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K
Werth: 3/11, 1 2B, 1 HR, 2 BB (1 IBB), 4 K
Ruiz: 3/10, 0 BB, 1 K, 1 HBP
Stairs: 2/9, 1 HR, 2 BB, 2 K
Dobbs: 1/8, 0 BB, 3 K
Coste: 0/6, 1 BB, 2 K
Ibanez: 1/6, 1 BB, 1 K
Bruntlett: 0/3, 0 BB, 0 K

NOT FACING US THIS SERIES: John Maine (R): 4.52 ERA, 5.0 BB/9, 6.1 K/9, 4.99 FIP, 35% GB

proj avg: 4.10 ERA, 3.8 BB/9, 8.0 K/9, 1.1 HR/9
gb: 39%
pitches: 70% fb, 18% ch, 10% sl, 1% cb
r/l: .662 vs .756 ops; 3.6 vs 1.3 k/bb
h/a: very similar home & away

Maine vs. Phillies:

Utley: 7/22, 2 2B, 1 HR, 3 BB, 2 K, 2 SF
Howard: 5/23, 2 HR, 3 BB, 4 K
Rollins: 4/25, 3 2B, 1 BB, 3 K
Victorino: 6/19, 1 HR, 1 BB, 2 K, 1 Sac, 1 HBP
Ruiz: 4/11, 1 BB, 1 K
Coste: 2/7, 2 2B, 1 BB, 0 K
Feliz: 3/7, 1 2B, 1 HR, 1 BB, 1 K
Dobbs: 0/5, 0 BB, 1 K
Bruntlett: 0/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Ibanez: 0/3, 0 BB, 0 K

NOT FACING US THIS SERIES: Livan Hernandez (R): 3.88 ERA, 2.7 BB/9, 5.4 K/9, 0.9 HR/9, 4.22 FIP, 45% GB

proj avg: 5.25 ERA, 3.0 BB/9, 4.5 K/9, 1.3 HR/9
gb: 42%
pitches: 72% fb, 17% sl, 7% cb, 4% ch
r/l: 2.5 vs 1.4 k/bb; .754 vs .805 ops
h/a: similar k/bb but more power surrendered away

Hernandez vs. Phillies:

Rollins: 9/51, 2 HR, 2 BB, 6 K
Utley: 8/24, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K, 1 HBP
Howard: 3/18, 2 HR, 2 BB (1 IBB), 5 K
Feliz: 4/18, 1 BB, 3 K
Stairs: 3/9, 1 2B, 0 BB, 4 K
Bruntlett: 2/4, 0 BB, 0 K
Coste: 0/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Victorino: 1/2, 0 BB, 0 K

DISABLED LIST: Oliver Perez (L): 9.97 ERA, 8.7 BB/9, 8.3 K/9, 1.2 HR/9, 6.12 FIP, 23% GB

proj avg: 4.40 ERA, 4.5 BB/9, 8.7 K/9, 1.3 HR/9
gb: 33%
pitches: 69% fb, 27% sl, 3% ch, 1% cb
r/l: .764 vs .693 ops; 1.7 vs 3.2 k/bb
h/a: .711 vs .795 ops; 2.0 vs 1.9 k/bb

Perez vs. Phillies:

Rollins: 8/26, 1 2B, 2 HR, 4 BB, 4 K
Howard: 3/24, 1 HR, 2 BB, 14 K, 1 SF, 1 HBP
Werth: 5/16, 1 2B, 1 HR, 7 BB, 4 K, 1 SF
Feliz: 1/19, 2 BB, 3 K
Utley: 3/16, 1 2B, 2 BB, 4 K, 3 HBP
Victorino: 5/15, 1 2B, 1 3B, 1 BB, 0 K
Bruntlett: 4/9, 2 2B, 5 BB, 2 K
Ruiz: 3/9, 3 BB (1 IBB), 1 K, 1 Sac
Coste: 1/7, 2 BB, 2 K
Ibanez: 2/4, 1 HR, 0 BB, 1 K, 1 SF

BULLPEN

CL Francisco Rodriguez (R): 0.68 ERA, 4.0 BB/9, 9.8 K/9, 0.3 HR/9, 2.78 ERA, 26% GB

proj avg: 2.80 ERA, 4.3 BB/9, 11.5 K/9, 0.6 HR/9
gb: 43%
pitches: 51% fb, 32% sl, 17% ch, 1% cb
r/l: 3.6 vs 2.5 k/bb; .523 vs .628 ops
h/a: slight home advantage but not huge

Rodriguez vs. Phillies:

Ibanez: 7/23, 1 BB, 9 K
Stairs: 0/7, 4 BB, 2 K
Feliz: 1/4, 0 BB, 1 K
Werth: 0/3, 1 BB, 1 K
Dobbs: 1/2, 1 BB, 0 K
Rollins: 0/2, 1 BB (IBB), 0 K
Bruntlett: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K
Howard: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K
Ruiz: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Utley: 1 BB
Victorino: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K

Bobby Parnell (R): 1.96 ERA, 3.9 BB/9, 7.8 K/9, 0.0 HR/9, 2.82 FIP, 40% GB

proj avg: 5.00 ERA, 4.5 BB/9, 6.5 K/9, 1.2 HR/9
gb: 44%
pitches: 86% fb, 13% sl, 2% ch
r/l: not enough info
h/a: not enough info

Parnell vs. Phillies:

Bruntlett: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Feliz: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Rollins: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K

Pedro Feliciano (L): 2.35 ERA, 1.6 BB/9, 9.4 K/9, 1.2 HR/9, 3.25 FIP, 57% GB

proj avg: 3.90 ERA, 3.9 BB/9, 8.1 K/9, 0.8 HR/9
gb: 50%
pitches: 55% fb, 38% sl, 6% cb, 0.2% ch
r/l: 1.2 vs 3.7 k/bb! .787 vs .569 ops! major loogy!
h/a: 1.9 vs 2.2 k/bb; .683 vs .702 ops-- a little better on road

Feliciano vs. Phillies:

Utley: 5/26, 1 2B, 2 HR, 3 BB, 12 K, 1 HBP
Howard: 4/25, 1 HR, 0 BB, 9 K
Rollins: 5/20, 1 2B, 1 HR, 1 BB, 1 K, 1 HBP
Victorino: 3/18, 1 2B, 1 BB, 3 K
Werth: 2/5, 1 HR, 2 BB, 1 K
Bruntlett: 1/2, 1 BB, 1 K
Ibanez: 1/3, 1 HR, 0 BB, 1 K
Ruiz: 1/3, 1 3B, 0 BB, 1 K
Dobbs: 1/2, 0 BB, 1 K
Feliz: 1/2, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K
Coste: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K

Fernando Nieve (R): 0.00 ERA, 0.0 BB/9, 9.0 K/9, 0.0 HR/9, 1.12 FIP, 50% GB

proj avg: 5.00 ERA, 3.7 BB/9, 7.0 K/9, 1.3 HR/9
gb: 40%
pitches: 68% fb, 25% sl, 5% ch, 3% cb, 0.1% sf
r/l: .740 vs .856 ops; 3.8 vs 1.0 k/bb (254 PA vs RHB, 206 vs LHB)
h/a: .757 vs .823 ops; 1.8 vs 2.0 k/bb (217 PA at Home, 243 PA on Road)

Nieve vs Phillies:

Feliz: 2/4, 1 2B, 0 BB, 1 K
Ruiz: 1/1, 1 BB, 0 K
Rollins: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Werth: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K

Brian Stokes (R): 2.49 ERA, 2.1 BB/9, 4.2 K/9, 0.4 HR/9, 3.49 FIP, 52% GB

proj avg: 4.80 ERA, 3.4 BB/9, 6.6 K/9, 1.1 HR/9
gb: 45%
pitches: 70% fb, 15% ch, 14% cb, 0.4% sl
r/l: .775 vs .914 ops; 2.1 vs 1.6 k/bb
h/a: .841 vs .841 ops; 1.7 vs 2.0 k/bb

Stokes vs Phillies:

Ibanez: 1/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Rollins: 1/2, 1 BB, 1 K
Dobbs: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Utley: 1/1, 1 BB (IBB), 0 K
Victorino: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Coste: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Howard: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Ruiz: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Stairs: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Werth: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K

Sean Green (R): 5.70 ERA, 4.2 BB/9, 7.6 K/9, 1.1 HR/9, 4.73 FIP, 59% GB

proj avg: 4.00 ERA, 4.0 BB/9, 6.5 K/9, 0.5 HR/9
gb: 61%
pitches: 78% fb, 19% sl, 2% cb, 1% ch
r/l: 2.8 vs 0.7 k/bb; .680 vs .839 ops-- big advantage for lhb!
h/a: slightly better away

Green vs. Phillies:

Stairs: 0/2, O BB, 0 K, 2 HBP
Coste: 1 BB
Dobbs: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Feliz: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Rollins: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Victorino: 1 BB

Ken Takahashi (L): 2.40 ERA, 3.6 BB/9, 6.0 K/9, 0.6 HR/9, 3.85 FIP, 39% GB

Takahashi vs Phillies:

Bruntlett: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Feliz: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Howard: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K
Ibanez: 1/1, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Rollins: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Ruiz: 1 BB
Victorino: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Werth: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K

DISABLED LIST: J.J. Putz (R): 5.22 ERA, 5.8 BB/9, 5.8 K/9, 0.3 HR/9, 4.21 FIP, 47% GB

proj avg: 3.10 ERA, 3.2 BB/9, 10.0 K/9, 0.7 HR/9
gb: 49%
pitches: 67% fb, 20% cb, 9% sl, 2% ct, 1% cb
r/l: 2.9 vs 3.4 k/bb; .589 vs .697 ops
h/a: 3.4 vs 2.9 k/bb; .595 vs .699 ops

Putz vs. Phillies:

Stairs: 1/7, 0 BB, 3 K
Utley: 0/2, 0 BB, 1 K
Coste: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Feliz: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Howard: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K
Ibanez: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Rollins: 1/1, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Ruiz: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Victorino: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Werth: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K

PHILLIES

LINE UP

1) SS Jimmy Rollins (S): .222/.261/.322

projection average (proj): .285/.350/.460
projected BB/PA (bb): 8%
projected K/AB (k): 11%
career gb% (gb): 42%
career infield flies/flyball (iff): 10%
career infield hits/groundball (ifh): 5%
batting average on balls in play tendencies (babip): about average overall, though a little bit high popup rate so slightly below average
swing/contact/zone facts (s/c/z): good eye, pretty selective, but very high contact rate so low walk rate
righty/lefty (r/l): 1.7 vs 1.3 k/bb, mostly because of higher k-rate as lhb. otherwise similar on contact
home/away (h/a): 1.5 vs 1.7 k/bb; .805 vs .739 ops
pull/opposite (p/o): definite pull hitter
anything else (other): stole 47 bases in 50 attempts last year.

2) CF Shane Victorino (S): .295/.343/.467

proj: .285/.345/.430
bb: 7.5%
k: 13%
gb: 46%
iff: 15%
ifh: 8%
babip: slightly above average due to high babip on groundballs-- partly because infield plays in for him and he spreads the ball around well; not that high due to high infield fly rate
s/c/z: pretety bad eye but high contact rate
r/l: much more power righthanded (1.6% to 3.8% HR rate), but much better k/bb as lefty: 1.65 vs 1.88; higher babip lefty also (.316 vs .286)
h/a: far fewer walks on road but nearly exactly the same strikeout rate, same power, same babip
p/o: pull hitter both ways
other: stole 36 of 47 bases last year

3) 2B Chase Utley (L): .296/.438/.548

proj: .295/.380/.525
bb: 9.5%
k: 18%
gb: 37%
iff: 10%
ifh: 6%
babip: distinctly above average historically and for projections too; seemingly strong power leads to high line drive babip rate and reasonably high groundball babip especially for pull hitting lefty; high on flyballs despite high infield fly rate since he hits deep flyballs
s/c/z: pretty good eye, somewhat selective, somewhat high contact rate
r/l: not significant-- only 1.7 vs 2.0 k/bb; .919 vs .865 ops
h/a: similar k/bb home & away; better hr at home-- probably park factors; higher babip at home too
p/o: pull hitter
other: much better against power pitchers relative to other hitters

4) 1B Ryan Howard (L): .259/.337/.577

proj: .275/.375/580
bb: 14%
k: 33%
gb: 40%
iff: 2%
ifh: 4%
babip: low on groundballs over time as he pulls the vast majority of them; very very high on flyballs because he almost never pops out in the infield at all and many of his flyballs are very deep. also since so few of his flyballs stay in the park (only 2/3 or so), a higher percentage of his balls in play are line drives-- which he does well on like many power hitters-- his low contact rate means he sometimes make poor contact though. probably above average overall
s/c/z: swings a lot especially for someone who doesn't see many strikes. however, he is pretty good at distinguishing pulls from strikes despite the consensus on him. he makes terrible contact overall though
r/l: 1.064 vs .786 ops: say it with me "that means he's good against righties, not bad against lefties!" in fact, he's the best hitter against righties in baseball right now probably. his k/bb vs lhp is 3.7 vs 1.6 vs rhp. he has a lot of power against lefties however, but a lower babip. i don't have split data on pull% vs lhp/rhp but observationally i'm pretty sure that's the difference in his babip: .338 vs .309.
h/a: much higher babip on road. very similar hr numbers. 2.0 vs 3.2 k/bb.
p/o: pull hitter, especially on groundballs-- hits more homeruns the opposite way though
other: struggles mightily against power pitchers and groundball pitchers, dominate flyball pitchers (since he almost never pops out, and has 10.3% hr rate) and smashes finesse pitchers (11.8% hr rate); he also does much better on babip with runners on base as defenders can't shift against him-- especially with runners in scoring position

5) RF Jayson Werth (R): .256/.355/.437

proj: .270/.360/.460
bb: 12.5%
k: 29%
gb: 38%
iff: 8%
ifh: 8%
babip: high on groundballs due to high infield hit rate, high on line drives due to power, and hits pretty deep flyballs too; has been historically probably higher than it should be since he's faced more lhp than normal rhb do; overall still seems to be very above average
s/c/z: very selective and pretty good eye; somewhat low contact rate
r/l: .762 vs .919 ops; 2.4 vs 2.0 k/bb; hr rate of 6.7% vs 2.9%
h/a: not much of a split at all
p/o: spreads ball around well for power hitter, but still a pull hitter
other: stole 20 bases in 21 attempts last year

6) LF Raul Ibanez (L): .329/.386/.676

proj: .285/.350/.480
bb: 9%
k: 17%
gb: 42%
iff: 11%
ifh: 5%
babip: above average, probably because he spreads the ball around pretty well for a power hitter; much better babip with men on-- probably hooks ball in hole well or maybe he was shifted against more so beforehand
s/c/z: definitely a good eye though it's getting worse, slightly above average contact
r/l: .850 vs .733; 1.5 vs 2.8 k/bb
h/a: better k/bb (1.6 vs 1.9) but worse power probably park factors, and probably likely to be better at home
p/o: slight pull hitter but not much for a power hitter
other: none

7) 3B Pedro Feliz (R): .306/.361/.425

proj: .250/.300/.420
bb: 6%
k: 15.5%
gb: 44%
iff: 15%
ifh: 5%
babip: very low-- pops up a lot, hits groundballs predictably to left side and is slow so they can play shaded over and deep; not all that much power so not terrific on line drives either, makes a lot of weak contact as he isn't good at making contact so he chops a lot of balls
s/c/z: high swing rate and not terribly good at distinguishing balls from strikes. swung significantly less in 2008, but it was as much of a decrease in balls as strikes, makes average contact
r/l: 3.3 vs 2.3 k/bb; .708 vs .755 ops, more babip and a little more power agaisnt lefties
h/a: much higher k rate on road, similar bb rate; more power on road, higher babip at home. likely not much difference (.725 vs .716 overall ops)
p/o: definite pull hitter
other: defensive numbers dipped last year, had offseason surgery for back, perhaps these are related

8) C Carlos Ruiz (R): .309/.435/.511

proj: .255/.335/.390
bb: 10%
k: 14%
gb: 50% (but rose in 2008 to 54% from 46%)
iff: 9.5%
ifh: 4%
babip: was extraordinarily low in 2008, but that seems to be rather flukey. his high groundball rate and solid contact rate and pitch selection indicate he should be a good babip guy, but he does very poorly on groundball as he chops the ball a lots/c/z: very good eye and excellent contact skill, extremely patient
r/l: bizarre reverse split despite 0.5 k/bb vs lhp and 1.2 vs rhp; impossibly low .204 babip against lhp, probably flukey and probably much better vs lhp in reality
h/a: similar k/bb, worse babip but higher power at home (park factors)
p/o: slight pull hitter
other: better against power pitchers, currently on DL with strained rib cage, probably longer than 15 days as originally thought

BENCH:

C Chris Coste (R): .229/.341/.414

proj: .265/.315/.405
bb: 5.5%
k: 17.5%
gb: 40%
iff: 10%
ifh: 6%
babip: slightly below average, seemingly due to poor eye and swinging and hitting bad pitches
s/c/z: high swing rate, pretty poor eye, average contact
r/l: .747 vs .855; same k/bb rate, much better babip against lhp, similar power but slightly more vs lhp
h/a: .886 vs .679; 5.4% vs 1.5% hr rate
p/o: pull hitter
other: struggles with power pitchers somewhat

IF/OF Eric Bruntlett (R): .152/.212/.239

proj: .240/.325/.335
bb: 10%
k: 18%
gb: 41%
iff: 14%
ifh: 5%
babip: high popup rate leads to low babip, but not that low; also doesn't do all that well on line drives due to lack of power
s/c/z: somewhat above average eye and doesn't swing much; makes very good contact, sees a lot of strikes
r/l: .592 vs .764 ops; 2.5 vs 1.2 k/bb; 5.7% vs 8.8% xbh/ab-- he's actually average if not above average against lhp; he just is terrible against rhb. he should be used as a counterswitch to loogy use against lefty pinch hitters
h/a: more power at home and more walks at home; similar strikeout rate and babip
p/o: opposite field hitter
other: none

IF Greg Dobbs (L): .188/.273/.354

proj: .285/.335/.445
bb: 7%
k: 17%
gb: 36%
iff: 13.5%
ifh: 3%
babip: has been high but probably should not be projected as high-- success derives from impossibly high line drive babip which doesn't typically happen for non-extreme power hitters. given his popup rate, he probably isn't a .320 babip guy and there isn't a .285 hitter
s/c/z: poor eye but very high swing rate; average contact rate
r/l: .761 vs .579 ops despite impossible .481 babip against lhp. in reality, he strikes out in 48% of at-bats against lhp. he should never see them. absolutely no power against lefties also.
h/a: virtually no split at all
p/o: pull hitter
other: much better against finesse pitchers

OF Matt Stairs (L): .324/.500/.618

proj: .255/.340/.440
bb: 11%
k: 22%
gb: 42%
iff: 11.5%
ifh: 5%
babip: average all around
s/c/z: very good eye and slightly below average contact
r/l: .862 vs .748; much more power against rhp; 1.4 vs 2.1 k/bb
h/a: not much of a split at all
p/o: slight pull hitter but not much for a power hitter
other: use stairs in case of emergency

ROTATION

TUESDAY'S STARTER: J.A. Happ (L): 2.48 ERA, 3.2 BB/9, 6.8 K/9, 0.7 HR/9, 3.87 FIP, 36% GB

proj avg: 4.40 ERA, 3.8 BB/9, 7.7 K/9, 1.2 HR/9
gb: 29% in majors thus far; 42% in AAA in 2008
pitches: 64% fb, 18% ch, 14% sl, 2% ct, 2% cb
r/l: 1.7 vs 3.0 k/bb in majors thus far; 2.7 vs 3.5 k/bb in AAA in 2008
h/a: not enough info

Happ vs. Mets:

Reyes: 1/8, 1 BB, 2 K
Beltran: 2/8, 1 HR, 0 BB, 2 K
Wright: 2/5, 1 HR, 1 BB, 0 K
Castillo: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Tatis: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Cora: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K
Church: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Murphy: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Santos: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Sheffield: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K

WEDNESDAY'S STARTER: Cole Hamels (L): 4.40 ERA, 1.6 BB/9, 8.6 K/9, 1.6 HR/9, 4.05 FIP, 40% GB

proj avg: 3.45 ERA, 2.3 BB/9, 8.4 K/9, 1.1 HR/9
gb: 40%
pitches: 55% fb, 32% ch, 14% cb
r/l: .680 vs .748, but same 3.6 k/bb both ways; slightly more power vs lhb-- this is probably selection bias as managers withhold all but the best lefties against him (explaining 20% of hitters faced are lefties only)
h/a: 3.85 vs 3.4 k/bb; .676 vs .709 ops-- less of a difference due to higher HR rate at home
other: much higher k-rate at night: 25% vs 20%, which is statistically significant. ERA difference (4.71 vs 3.01 exaggerated by babip difference), as HR rate and XBH rate very similar. most likely he strikes out more at night.

Hamels vs. Mets:

Church: 6/20, 1 2B, 2 BB, 6 K
Reyes: 3/18, 3 BB (1 IBB), 5 K
Beltran: 5/18, 2 HR, 2 BB (1 IBB), 3 K
Wright: 5/17, 2 2B, 1 3B, 1 HR, 1 BB, 6 K
Schneider: 4/12, 2 BB (1 IBB), 2 K
Pagan: 2/11, 1 HR, 0 BB, 1 K
Castillo: 0/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Tatis: 0/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Cora: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K

THURSDAY'S STARTER: Jamie Moyer (L): 6.27 ERA, 2.4 BB/9, 4.9 K/9, 6.09 FIP, 40% GB

proj avg: 4.80 ERA, 2.8 BB/9, 5.5 K/9, 1.2 HR/9
gb: 39%
pitches: 41% fb, 30% ct, 24% ch, 6% cb
r/l: virtually no split but that seems to be selection as he sees 24% lefties only compared with 32% league average for lhp
h/a: 2.3 vs 1.9 k/bb; not much difference on contact; slightly better babip at home but not more so than the average starter gets

Moyer vs. Mets:

Beltran: 13/59, 3 2B, 1 HR, 9 BB (1 IBB), 10 K
Reyes: 12/43, 2 2B, 2 3B, 1 HR, 2 BB (1 IBB), 5 K, 1 Sac
Wright: 16/38, 4 2B, 3 HR, 1 BB, 3 K, 1 HBP, 1 SF
Sheffield: 14/30, 2 2B, 4 HR, 9 BB, 2 K
Castillo: 4/17, 2 2B, 5 BB, 0 K
Church: 4/16, 1 2B, 0 BB, 3 K, 2 HBP
Tatis: 5/13, 1 2B, 1 HR, 3 BB (1 IBB), 1 K
Schneider: 2/5, 2 BB (1 IBB), 0 K
Pagan: 1/6, 0 BB, 1 K
Martinez: 3/4, 0 BB, 0 K
Cora: 1/3, 1 3B, 0 BB, 0 K
Murphy: 1/1, 1 HR, 1 BB, 0 K, 1 SF

NOT STARTING THIS SERIES: Joe Blanton (R): 5.46 ERA, 2.9 BB/9, 8.1 K/9, 1.7 HR/9, 4.82 FIP, 40% GB

proj avg: 4.25 ERA, 2.5 BB/9, 5.8 K/9, 0.9 HR/9
gb: 45%
pitches: 56% fb, 16% ch, 15% sl, 12% cb
r/l: 2.3 vs 1.8 k/bb; .750 vs .719 ops
h/a: 2.2 vs 2.0 k/bb; .698 vs .776 ops; much worse babip away (.313 vs .282), more power surrendered on road
other: extraordinarily good against leadoff hitters, especially the first hitter of games

Blanton vs. Mets:

Reed: 2/17, 0 BB, 2 K
Castillo: 7/14, 1 3B, 1 BB, 0 K
Reyes: 0/9, 2 BB, 0 K
Sheffield: 3/9, 1 2B, 1 HR, 2 BB, 0 K
Beltran: 2/9, 0 BB, 1 K
Wright: 2/8, 1 2B, 0 BB, 1 K
Delgado: 1/6, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K
Cora: 0/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Schneider: 1/1, 2 BB, 0 K
Church: 1/3, 0 BB, 1 K, 1 HBP
Martinez: 1/3, 0 BB, 0 K

NOT STARTING THIS SERIES: Antonio Bastardo (L): 2.45 ERA, 1.6 BB/9, 7.4 K/9, 0.8 HR/9, 3.48 FIP, 32% GB

proj avg: 5.60 ERA, 4.8 BB/9, 7.0 K/9, 1.9 HR/9
gb: 40% in minors
pitches: ?
r/l: 2.1 vs 4.1 k/bb in minor league career
h/a: much better control at home in minor league control

Bastardo: has not faced any Mets

BULLPEN

CL Brad Lidge (R): 7.27 ERA, 4.8 BB/9, 9.7 K/9, 2.4 HR/9, 6.20 FIP, 38% GB

proj avg: 3.50 ERA, 4.1 BB?9, 11.0 K/9, 0.8 HR/9
gb: 41% (though this went up to 46% with increased slider use in 2008)
pitches: 56% sl, 43% fb, 0.4% ch in 2008 (historically 54% fb, 42% sl)
r/l: 3.6 vs 2.8 k/bb; .601 vs .686 ops (tough to tell if that tendency became more or less extreme in 2008 due to limited sample size)
h/a: 3.6 vs 2.9 k/bb; .666 vs .614 ops though due to higher babip away
other: HR/Flyball plummeted in 2008-- probably unsustainably low and his ERA should rise; still rumors of him tipping pitches explain the HR/Flyball spike in 2006 & 2007

Lidge vs. Mets:

Beltran: 2/11, 1 2B, 0 BB, 1 K
Martinez: 2/6, 1 BB, 2 K, 1 SF
Wright: 1/6, 1 2B, 2 BB, 3 K
Church: 2/6, 1 BB (IBB), 2 K
Reyes: 2/6, 0 BB, 0 K
Schneider: 1/5, 1 BB, 2 K
Castillo: 1/5, 0 BB, 2 K
Murphy: 1/2, 1 2B, 1 BB (IBB), 0 K
Pagan: 0/3, 0 BB, 2 K
Tatis: 0/3, 0 BB, 2 K
Sheffield: 1/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Santos: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Cora: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K

Ryan Madson (R): 2.22 ERA, 2.9 BB/9, 9.8 K/9, 0.0 HR/9, 1.89 FIP, 42% GB

proj avg: 3.80 ERA, 2.9 BB/9, 7.2 K/9, 0.8 HR/9
gb: 48%
pitches: 58% fb, 24% ch, 15% ct, 4% cb
r/l: 3.65 vs 1.8 k/bb; .714 vs .786 ops
h/a: no major split at all

Madson vs. Mets:

Wright: 6/22, 2 HR, 1 BB, 3 K
Reyes: 7/19, 1 2B, 2 HR, 2 BB (1 IBB), 4 K
Beltran: 5/15, 3 HR, 3 BB, 3 K
Schneider: 8/14, 3 2B, 0 BB, 1 K
Castillo: 0/8, 2 BB, 1 K, 1 SF
Church: 1/8, 1 BB, 0 K, 1 HBP
Tatis; 0/2, 0 BB, 2 K
Martinez: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Reed: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Cora: 1 Sac

Scott Eyre (L): 2.70 ERA, 6.1 BB/9, 6.1 K/9, 1.4 HR/9, 5.97 FIP, 32% GB

proj avg: 4.20 ERA, 4.1 BB/9, 8.8 K/9, 0.9 HR/9
gb: 41%
pitches: 59% fb, 35% sl, 6% ch, 0.2% cb
r/l: 1.5 vs 1.9 k/bb; .815 vs .720 ops
h/a: not much of a split

Eyre vs. Mets:

Beltran: 2/7, 1 2B, 0 BB, 1 K, 1 SF, 2 HBP
Castillo: 2/7, 2 BB, 1 K
Wright: 3/6, 2 2B, 1 BB (IBB), 0 K
Cora: 0/6, 0 BB, 1 K
Schneider: 0/6, 0 BB, 3 K
Church: 0/4, 0 BB, 3 K
Reyes: 1/3, 1 BB, 0 K
Tatis: 1/4, 0 BB, 0 K
Murphy: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Martinez: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K

Jack Taschner (L): 3.92 ERA, 6.5 BB/9, 4.8 K/9, 0.9 HR/9, 5.78 FIP, 34% GB

proj avg: 4.50 ERA, 4.1 BB/9, 8.0 K/9, 1.0 HR/9
gb: 35%
pitches: 57% fb, 30% sl, 13% ch
r/l: 1.45 vs 2.2 k/bb; .754 vs .747-- large selection bias where he faces only very good lefties and not very good righties
h/a: .698 vs .797 ops; 2.1 vs 1.5 k/bb

Taschner vs. Mets:

Reyes: 2/5, 0 BB, 1 K
Beltran: 1/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Church: 1/3, 0 BB, 2 K
Castillo: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Martinez: 1 BB
Pagan: 1/1, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Wright: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Cora: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K

Chad Durbin (R): 4.25 ERA, 5.2 BB/9, 9.2 K/9, 1.2 HR/9, 5.18 FIP, 35% GB

proj avg: 4.10 ERA, 3.5 BB/9, 6.5 K/9, 1.0 HR/9
gb: 41%
pitches: 47% fb, 38% sl, 8% ch, 7% cb, 1% ct
r/l: virtually no split
h/a: somewhat of a reverse split but probably just noise

Durbin vs. Mets:

Beltran: 3/13, 3 BB, 6 K, 1 HBP
Reyes: 1/11, 1 BB, 1 K
Wright: 1/7, 1 HR, 1 BB, 3 K
Church: 1/7, 0 BB, 3 K
Cora: 0/5, 2 BB, 1 K
Castillo: 3/4, 1 BB, 0 K
Murphy: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Pagan: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Tatis; 2/2, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K
Sheffield: 1 BB

Clay Condrey (R): 2.17 ERA, 2.8 BB/9, 6.2 K/9, 1.2 HR/9, 4.47 FIP, 52% GB

proj avg: 4.50 ERA, 2.8 BB/9, 4.9 K/9, 0.8 HR/9
gb: 50%
pitches: 59% fb, 17% ct, 15% sl, 9% ch
r/l: 2.1 vs 1.3 k/bb; .761 vs .842 ops
h/a: .703 vs .898 ops; 2.2 vs 1.3 k/bb

Condrey vs. Mets:

Wright: 1/12, 1 3B, 1 BB, 0 K
Schneider: 3/11, 2 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Beltran: 2/7, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K, 1 Sac
Tatis: 1/8, 0 BB, 0 K
Reyes: 2/5, 2 BB, 0 K
Church: 0/5, 1 BB, 1 K
Martinez: 1/3, 0 BB, 1 K, 1 SF
Castillo: 2/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Cora: 1/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Sheffield: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Murphy: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K

Chan Ho Park (R): 6.80 ERA, 4.7 BB/9, 5.4 K/9, 1.1 HR/9, 5.08 FIP, 42% GB

proj avg: 4.50 ERA, 3.5 BB/9, 7.3 K/9, 1.2 HR/9
gb: 45%
pitches: 51% FB, 29% SL, 12% cb, 5% ch, 4% ct
r/l: .666 vs .820 ops; 2.6 vs 1.3 k/bb; .280 vs .301 babip; 2.6% vs 3.6% HR rate-- much better against righties
h/a: 2.0 vs 1.7 k/bb; .708 vs .780 ops

Park vs. Mets:

Beltran: 5/18, 1 2B, 1 HR, 7 BB (1 IBB), 4 K, 1 SF
Castillo: 4/15, 5 BB, 1 K
Martinez: 1/15, 2 BB, 0 K, 1 HBP
Reed: 3/14, 2 2B, 3 BB, 3 K
Tatis: 7/12, 1 2B, 2 HR, 3 BB (IBB), 1 K
Sheffield: 2/12, 1 BB, 0 K
Reyes: 0/10, 0 BB, 1 K
Wright: 4/8, 2 2B, 2 BB, 1 K
Murphy: 2/5, 1 2B, 1 HR, 0 BB, 1 K
Cora: 1/4, 2 BB, 0 K
Santos: 1/3, 1 2B, 1 BB (IBB), 1 K, 1 SF
Church: 0/4, 0 BB, 2 K
Schneider: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K

J.C. Romero (L): 0.00 ERA, 6.0 BB/9, 6.0 K/9, 0.0 HR/9, 3.79 FIP, 38% GB

proj avg: 4.00 ERA, 5.5 BB?9, 7.5 K/9, 0.7 HR/9
gb: 55%
pitches: 58% fb, 25% sl, 17% ch, 0.1% cb
r/l: 1.2 vs 2.2 k/bb; .814 vs. 591 ops
h/a: 1.6 vs 1.3 k/bb; .697 vs .768 ops

Romero vs. Mets:

Beltran: 4/25, 3 2B, 2 BB, 8 K
Delgado: 3/19, 1 2B, 3 BB, 5 K
Schneider: 2/7, 1 3B, 0 BB, 3 K
Castillo: 0/6, 2 BB, 2 K
Church: 1/6, 1 BB, 2 K
Reyes: 2/4, 1 BB, 1 K, 1 Sac
Wright: 0/2, 4 BB (3 IBB), 2 K
Reed: 0/5, 0 BB, 2 K
Tatis: 1/3, 1 BB, 0 K
Sheffield: 1/3, 1 BB, 0 K
Cora: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Murphy: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K

Phillies at Dodgers: June 4-7

Matt Swartz — Thu, 04 Jun 2009 22:49:14 -0000

More photos » by Lenny Ignelzi - AP

J.C. Romero is back with the Phillies, in time to face the team that leads the NL in runs. (AP Photo/Lenny Ignelzi)

Browse more photos »

The Phillies (31-20) head to Los Angeles to play the Dodgers (37-18), on the heels of two sweeps. The Dodgers continue to surge as well, having taken two of three from the Diamondbacks and winning eight of the their last ten games. The Phillies now have the second best record in the majors, but the Dodgers have the best record. Both teams send three lefties to the mound in four games.

MATCHUPS:

Thursday, 10:10-- Cole Hamels (L) vs Clayton Kershaw (L)

Friday, 10:10-- Jamie Moyer (L) vs Eric Milton (L)

Saturday, 4:10-- Joe Blanton (R) vs Hiroki Kuroda (R)

Sunday, 8:00-- Antonio Bastardo (L) vs Randy Wolf (L)

Below the jump, I preview all the players, splits, and matchups.

DODGERS

LINE UP

1) OF Juan Pierre (L): .371/.434/.483

proj: .285/.325/.360
bb: 5.5%
k: 7%
gb: 56%
iff: 10%
ifh: 8%
babip: he's projected around average (.300) but my research puts him closer to .310 he's very fast though not powerful and does popout a little. however, he spreads the ball around pretty well.
s/c/z: quite bad eye the past few years despite having a good eye early in career, somewhat impatient, great contact skill
r/l: .726 vs .694 ops; 0.9 vs 1.2 k/bb
h/a: .735 vs .700 ops; 0.9 vs 1.1 k/bb
p/o: slight opposite field hitter
other: none

2) SS Rafael Furcal (S): .244/.308/.301

projection average (proj): .285/.355/.410
projected BB/PA (bb): 10%
projected K/AB (k): 13.5%
career gb% (gb): 50%
career infield flies/flyball (iff): 12%
career infield hits/groundball (ifh): 7%
batting average on balls in play tendencies (babip): projected slightly above average due to speed; he spreads the ball around well and gets a decent number of infield hits so the .315-ish BABIP projection makes sense
swing/contact/zone facts (s/c/z): good eye and patient, good contact
righty/lefty (r/l): .749 vs .801 ops; 1.4 k/bb both ways; more power as RHB
home/away (h/a): .821 vs .705 ops; 1.3 vs 1.5 k/bb; much more power at home
pull/opposite (p/o): slight pull hitter
anything else (other):

3) 2B Orlando Hudson (S): .329/.410/.468

proj: .280/.355/.415
bb: 16%
k: 15%
gb: 49%
iff: 7%
ifh: 5%
babip: projected above average (.315-ish)-- pretty good at avoiding infield flies and has done very well on line drives historically despite unamazing power; my research indicates he should be around .323
s/c/z: very good eye and pretty patient; pretty good contact skill too
r/l: .808 vs .709 ops; 1.6 k/bb both ways
h/a: .824 vs .745 ops; 1.6 vs 1.7 k/bb
p/o: slight pull hitter as RHB but opposite field hitter as LHB
other: better against groundball pitchers (.835 vs .703 ops)

4) RF Andre Ethier (L): .262/.363/.435

proj: .295/.365/.470
bb: 9.5%
k: 17.5%
gb: 42%
iff: 4%
ifh: 6%
babip: projected high (.330-ish) which makes sense given that he rarely pops out, and hits his flyballs far; my research suggests he should be around .335
s/c/z: pretty good eye and good contact skill (especially high given high strikeout rate)
r/l: .882 vs .758 ops; 1.4 vs 2.4 k/bb
h/a: .889 vs .822 ops; 1.3 vs 1.8 k/bb
p/o: slight pull hitter
other: none

5) C Russell Martin (R): .267/.377/.318

proj: .285/.380/.430
bb: 12.5%
k: 15%
gb: 50%
iff: 12%
ifh: 4%
babip: projected around .315, but my research sees him around average (.301) since he pops out a lot and isn't especially fast
s/c/z: very patient, pretty good eye, average contact
r/l: .762 vs .900 ops; 1.3 vs 0.8 k/bb
h/a: .803 vs .786 ops; 1.1 vs 1.3 k/bb
p/o: slight pull hitter
other: none

6) 1B James Loney (L): ..284/.350/.379

proj: .295/.350/.455
bb: 8%
k: 15%
gb: 44%
iff: 11%
ifh: 6%
babip: projected around .320, probably because he hits a lot of balls hard. my research suggest around .309.
s/c/z: not so great eye but close to to average, good contact skill, thrown a lot of pitches out of the strike zone
r/l: .865 vs .731 ops; 1.4 vs 1.9 k/bb
h/a: .729 vs .925 ops; 1.5 vs 1.6 k/bb
p/o: slight pull hitter
other: better against groundball pitchers

7) CF Matt Kemp (R): .310/.376/483

proj: .300/.350/475
bb: 7%
k: 23%
gb: 44%
iff: 3%
ifh: 10%
babip: extremely high BABIP on groundballs which makes sense somewhat given infield hit rate, but .354 career seems high. however, my research sees him coming in around .352. Avoiding popouts explains why his BABIP is high on flyballs and he hits balls hard, so he should be good on flyballs. projected .360 BABIP isn't all that ridiculous, but probably should be lower.
s/c/z: good eye, poor contact
r/l: .782 vs .930 ops; 4.1 vs 2.6 k/bb
h/a: .865 vs .787 ops; 3.7 vs 3.4 k/bb; much power at home
p/o: pull hitter
other: better against groundball pitchers (do the dodgers play the same terrible groundball pitcher or something?)

8) 3B Casey Blake (R): .295/.368/.542

proj: .265/.335/.440
bb: 8.5%
k: 22%
gb: 40%
iff: 9%
ifh: 7%
babip: projected around .310. my research puts him around .315. he doesn't popout much and gets a decent number of infield hits.
s/c/z: patient hitter with okay eye and slightly below average contact skill
r/l: .765 vs .822 ops; 2.8 vs 1.6 k/bb
h/a: .726 vs .832 ops; 2.4 k/bb both ways
p/o: pull hitter
other: none

BENCH

C Brad Ausmus (R): .314/.368/.343

proj: .220/.300/.290
bb: 9.5%
k: 19.5%
gb: 51%
iff: 10%
ifh: 5%
babip: projected around .270, which makes sense given his mediocre strikeout rate, weak power, his propensity to pop out, and his slow speed.
s/c/z: good eye, patient, decent contact
r/l: .653 vs .729 ops; 1.8 vs 1.0 k/bb
h/a: .700 vs .641 ops; 1.4 vs 1.8 k/bb
p/o: slight pull hitter
other: none

IF Mark Loretta (R): .288/.408/.339

proj: .275/.340/.365
bb: 9%
k: 11%
gb: 38%
iff: 8%
ifh: 5%
babip: projected around average which seems about right.
s/c/z: good eye, somewhat patient, very good contact
r/l: .742 vs .805 ops; 1.4 vs 0.7 k/bb
h/a: .802 vs .722 ops; 0.9 vs 1.3 k/bb
p/o: slight pull hitter
other: none

IF Juan Castro (R): .326/.396/.435

proj: .220/.270/.320
bb: 5.5%
k: 17%
gb: 46%
iff: 10%
ifh: 3%
babip: projected very low (around .260). he doesn't have much power and isn't particularly fast, so this could be right.
s/c/z: good eye, not very patient, average contact
r/l: .605 vs .582 ops; 4.1 vs 1.8 k/bb; much more power against RHB though
h/a: .600 vs .598 ops; 3.3 vs 3.0 k/bb
p/o: slight pull hitter
other: none

OF Jamie Hoffman (R): .167/.150/.144

proj: .250/.305/.360
bb: 7%
k: 18%
gb: 37% in minors
iff: 10% in minors
ifh: ?
babip: looks like he's projected to be average but not much info
s/c/z: not enough info
r/l: better eye against lefties in minors so better but tought to tell
h/a: not enough info
p/o: not enough info
other: none

ROTATION

THURSDAY OPPONENT: Clayton Kershaw (L): 4.34 ERA, 5.1 BB/9, 8.8 K/9, 0.8 HR/9, 4.11 FIP, 41% GB

proj avg: 4.20 ERA, 4.0 BB/9, 8.0 K/9, 1.0 HR/9
gb: 46%
pitches: 71% fb, 23% cb, 5% ch, 0.3% sl
r/l: .752 vs .741 ops; 1.8 vs 2.6 k/bb
h/a: .667 vs .843 ops; 2.9 vs 1.4 k/bb

Kershaw vs Phillies:

Howard: 1/7, 1 2B, 2 BB, 3 K
Rollins: 3/8, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K, 1 HBP
Utley: 2/7, 1 HR, 2 BB, 3 K
Victorino: 1/8, 0 BB, 2 K
Werth: 2/8, 0 BB, 2 K
Coste: 1/4, 1 BB, 2 K
Feliz: 1/2, 2 BB, 0 K
Bruntlett: 1/3, 0 BB, 1 K
Ibanez: 1/2, 1 2B, 0 BB, 1 K, 1 HBP
Ruiz: 0/1, 1 BB, 0 K

FRIDAY STARTER: Eric Milton (L): 3.14 ERA, 3.1 BB/9, 6.3 K/9, 0.6 HR/9, 4.13 FIP, 30% GB

proj avg: 5.00 ERA, 2.8 BB/9, 6.0 K/9, 1.5 HR/9
gb: 31%
pitches: 66% fb, 15% ch, 14% cb, 6% sl, 0.2% ct
r/l: .775 vs .807 ops; 2.4 vs 2.8 k/bb
h/a: .779 vs .784 ops; 2.7 vs 2.2 k/bb

Milton vs Phillies:

Stairs: 4/23, 2 2B, 2 HR, 3 BB, 9 K
Feliz: 6/11, 2 2B, 1 HR, 1 BB, 2 K
Rollins: 4/12, 0 BB, 1 K
Utley: 2/9, 1 2B, 1 HR, 0 BB, 3 K
Howard: 3/6, 1 3B, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K
Victorino: 2/4, 1 BB, 0 K, 1 Sac
WertH: 1/2, 1 BB, 0 K
Bruntlett: 0/2, 0 BB, 1 K

SATURDAY STARTER: Hiroki Kuroda (R): 2.53 ERA, 3.4 BB/9, 6.8 K/9, 0.0 HR/9, 2.77 FIP, 52% GB

proj avg: 4.00 ERA, 2.5 BB/9, 5.9 K/9, 0.9 HR/9
gb: 51%
pitches: 59% fb, 26% sl, 12% sf, 2% ct, 0.2% cb
r/l: .605 vs .703 ops; 3.7 vs 1.9 k/bb
h/a: .615 vs .688 ops; 4.4 vs 1.9 k/bb

Kuroda vs Phillies:

Howard: 0/5, 0 BB, 3 K, 1 SF
Rollins: 0/6, 0 BB, 1 K
Utey: 2/6, 1 2B, 0 BB, 1 K
Werth: 1/4, 1 2B, 0 BB, 1 K
Dobbs: 0/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Victorino: 0/2, 1 BB, 0 K
Bruntlett: 0/2, 0 BB, 1 K
Coste: 0/2, 0 BB, 1 K
Ruiz: 1/2, 0 BB, 0 K

SUNDAY OPPONENT: Randy Wolf (L): 3.21 ERA, 2.6 BB/9, 6.9 K/9, 1.1 HR/9, 4.03 FIP, 37% GB

proj avg: 4.40 ERA, 3.6 BB/9, 7.6 K/9, 1.1 HR/9
gb: 39%
pitches: 60% fb, 18% cb, 13% sl, 9% ch
r/l: .761 vs .706 ops; 2.1 vs 3.1 k/bb
h/a: .724 vs .776 ops; 2.4 vs 2.1 k/bb

Wolf vs Phillies:

Feliz: 4/16, 3 HR, 0 BB, 4 K
Ibanez: 2/8, 1 2B, 1 BB, 2 K
Werth: 1/6, 1 HR, 3 BB, 3 K
Bruntlett: 1/6, 0 BB, 2 K
Howard: 1/6, 1 2B, 0 BB, 4 K
Utley: 1/5, 1 BB, 3 K
Victorino: 1/5, 1 2B, 1 BB, 0 K
Ruiz: 2/3, 2 2B, 2 BB, 0 K
Rollins: 1/3, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K

NOT FACING US: Chad Billingsley (R): 2.59 ERA, 4.0 BB/9, 9.6 K/9, 0.2 HR/9, 2.85 FIP, 49% GB

proj avg: 3.60 ERA, 3.8 BB/9, 8.7 K/9, 0.8 HR/9
gb: 46%
pitches: 59% fb, 19% ct, 18% cb, 2% ch, 2% sl
r/l: .634 vs .766 ops; 2.8 vs 1.5 k/bb
h/a: .702 vs .695 ops; 2.3 vs 1.8 k/bb

Billingsley vs Phillies:

Feliz: 4/15, 1 2B, 1 HR, 0 BB, 4 K
Rollins: 4/12, 2 2B, 1 3B, 0 BB, 2 K, 1 HBP
Howard: 2/8, 1 HR, 3 BB (1 IBB), 3 K, 1 SF
Utley: 2/7, 3 BB (2 IBB), 4 K
Victorino: 1/7, 2 BB, 2 K, 1 Sac
Werth: 2/7, 2 BB, 3 K
Ruiz: 3/6, 1 2B, 2 BB, 0 K
Bruntlett: 1/4, 2 BB, 2 K
Ibanez: 2/4, 2 BB, 0 K
Coste: 0/3, 0 BB, 1 K
Dobbs: 0/3, 0 BB, 1 K
Stairs: 0/2, 1 BB, 0 K

BULLPEN

CL: Jonathan Broxton (R): 1.33 ERA, 3.3 BB/9, 14.0 K/9, 0.0 HR/9, 1.26 FIP, 57% GB

proj avg: 3.00 ERA, 3.2 BB/9, 10.8 K/9, 0.6 HR/9
gb: 43%
pitches: 75% fb, 22% sl, 3% ch
r/l: .539 vs .694 ops; 7.7 vs 1.7 k/bb (major difference is walks)
h/a: .559 vs .671 ops; 3.5 vs 2.9 k/bb

Broxton vs Phillies:

Feliz: 2/10, 0 BB, 3 K
Howard: 0/6, 0 BB, 4 K
Rollins: 1/4, 2 BB, 0 K
Victorino: 3/5, 0 BB, 1 K
Utley: 2/4, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Werth: 0/4, 0 BB, 4 K
Dobbs: 1/2, 1 BB, 0 K
Ruiz: 2/2, 2 2B, 1 BB, 0 K
Bruntlett: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K
Coste: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K
Ibanez: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K

Ronald Belisario (R): 2.23 ERA, 4.2 BB/9, 8.6 K/9, 0.6 HR/9, 3.61 FIP, 59% GB

proj avg: 6.00 ERA, 5.1 BB/9, 5.6 K/9, 1.9 HR/9
gb: 57%
pitches: 81% fb, 18% sl, 0.4% ch
r/l: .533 vs .862 ops; 8k/0bb vs rhb, 9k/7bb vs lhb
h/a: .769 vs .615; 2.5 vs 2.4 k/bb

Belisario vs Phillies:

Feliz: 1 BB
Stairs: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Ruiz: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Utley: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Victorino: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K

Cory Wade (R): 4.82 ERA, 4.3 BB/9, 6.3 K/9, 0.0 HR/9, 3.20 FIP, 39% GB

proj avg: 4.00 ERA, 2.6 BB/9, 6.8 K/9, 1.1 HR/9
gb: 40%
pitches: 56% fb, 28% cb, 16% ch
r/l: .588 vs .584 ops; 2.3 vs 8.7 k/bb (not much data)
h/a: .421 vs .730 ops; 6.2 vs 2.2 k/bb (not much data)

Wade vs Phillies:

Rollins: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Utley: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Victorino: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K

Guillermo Mota (R): 6.53 ERA, 5.2 BB/9, 4.4 K/9, 0.9 HR/9, 5.47 FIP, 46% GB

proj avg: 4.50 ERA, 3.8 BB/9, 7.6 K/9, 1.2 HR/9
gb: 43%
pitches: 55% fb, 25% sl, 20% ch, 0.3% sf
r/l: .678 vs .727 op; 2.6 vs 1.6 k/bb
h/a: .720 vs .680 ops; 2.3 vs 1.8 k/bb

Mota vs Phillies:

Rollins: 3/15, 1 2B, 1 3B, 1 BB, 5 K
Feliz: 3/9, 2 HR, 0 BB, 1 K
Victorino: 1/6, 0 BB, 2 K
Howard: 2/4, 2 HR, 1 BB, 0 K
Stairs: 0/4, 0 BB, 1 K, 1 Sac
Utley: 2/5, 1 2B, 1 HR, 0 BB, 1 K
Werth: 1/4, 0 BB, 1 K
Dobbs: 1/3, 0 BB, 1 K
Ruiz: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Coste: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K

Brent Leach (L): 5.63 ERA, 4.5 BB/9, 11.2 K/9, 0.0 HR/9, 2.15 FIP, 48% GB

proj avg: 5.10 ERA, 6.2 BB/9, 6.2 K/9, 1.1 HR/9
gb: 50% in minors last year
pitches: ?
r/l: 1.9 vs 1.6 k/bb in minors last year
h/a: not enough info

Leach vs Phillies:

Bruntlett: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K
Victorino: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K

Ramon Troncoso (R): 1.83 ERA, 2.6 BB/9, 6.0 K/9, 0.0 HR/9, 2.77 FIP, 57% GB

proj avg: 4.25 ERA, 3.3 BB/9, 6.5 K/9, 0.7 HR/9
gb: 61%
pitches: 71% fb, 23% ch, 4% sl, 0.5% ct
r/l: .647 vs .633 ops; 2.6 vs 4.5 k/bb
h/a: .678 vs .617 ops; 3.5 vs 2.9 k/bb

Troncoso vs Phillies:

Utley: 1/3, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K, 1 HBP
Howard: 0/3, 0 BB, 2 K
Victorino: 0/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Feliz: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Rollins: 0/2, 0 BB, 1 K
Werth: 1/1, 1 BB, 0 K
Coste: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Dobbs: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Ruiz: 1 BB

Jeff Weaver (R): 4.05 ERA, 5.1 BB/9, 6.1 K/9, 0.7 HR/9, 4.57 FIP, 44% GB

proj avg: 5.15 ERA, 2.7 BB/9, 5.6 K/9, 1.4 HR/9
gb: 40%
pitches: 50% fb, 20% sl, 16% cb, 7% ct, 8% ch
r/l: .687 vs .858 ops; 3.4 vs 1.9 k/bb
h/a: .770 vs .785 ops; 2.5 vs 2.4 k/bb

Weaver vs Phillies:

Ibanez: 13/34, 2 2B, 1 HR, 2 BB, 5 K
Feliz: 5/21, 1 2B, 1 HR, 0 BB, 2 K, 1 SF
Stairs: 7/17, 1 2B, 2 HR, 2 BB, 1 K
Cairo: 5/14, 1 BB, 3 K
Rollins: 4/5, 2 HR, 0 BB, 0 K
Bruntlett: 1/5, 0 BB, 1 K
Howard: 1/2, 0 BB, 1 K
Utley: 0/1, 1 BB, 0 K

Travis Schlichting (R): has not played

proj avg: 5.30 ERA, 3.5 BB/9, 5.1 K/9, 1.5 HR/9
gb: 40% in mionrs
pitches: ?
r/l: better control against RHB in minors
h/a: not enough info

Schlichting: has not played any Phillies

PHILLIES

LINE UP

1) SS Jimmy Rollins (S): .229/.270/.336

projection average (proj): .285/.350/.460
projected BB/PA (bb): 8%
projected K/AB (k): 11%
career gb% (gb): 42%
career infield flies/flyball (iff): 10%
career infield hits/groundball (ifh): 5%
batting average on balls in play tendencies (babip): about average overall, though a little bit high popup rate so slightly below average. my system has him at about .308.
swing/contact/zone facts (s/c/z): good eye, pretty selective, but very high contact rate so low walk rate
righty/lefty (r/l): 1.7 vs 1.3 k/bb, mostly because of higher k-rate as lhb. otherwise similar on contact
home/away (h/a): 1.5 vs 1.7 k/bb; .805 vs .739 ops
pull/opposite (p/o): definite pull hitter
anything else (other): stole 47 bases in 50 attempts last year.

2) CF Shane Victorino (S): .300/.349/.465

proj: .285/.345/.430
bb: 7.5%
k: 13%
gb: 46%
iff: 15%
ifh: 8%
babip: slightly above average due to high babip on groundballs-- partly because infield plays in for him and he spreads the ball around well; not that high due to high infield fly rate. my system sees him at .303.
s/c/z: pretety bad eye but high contact rate
r/l: much more power righthanded (1.6% to 3.8% HR rate), but much better k/bb as lefty: 1.65 vs 1.88; higher babip lefty also (.316 vs .286)
h/a: far fewer walks on road but nearly exactly the same strikeout rate, same power, same babip
p/o: pull hitter both ways
other: stole 36 of 47 bases last year

3) 2B Chase Utley (L): .298/.437/.556

proj: .295/.380/.525
bb: 9.5%
k: 18%
gb: 37%
iff: 10%
ifh: 6%
babip: distinctly above average historically and for projections too; seemingly strong power leads to high line drive babip rate and reasonably high groundball babip especially for pull hitting lefty; high on flyballs despite high infield fly rate since he hits deep flyballs. my system has him at about .308, but he beats projection systems consistently.
s/c/z: pretty good eye, somewhat selective, somewhat high contact rate
r/l: not significant-- only 1.7 vs 2.0 k/bb; .919 vs .865 ops
h/a: similar k/bb home & away; better hr at home-- probably park factors; higher babip at home too
p/o: pull hitter
other: much better against power pitchers relative to other hitters

4) 1B Ryan Howard (L): .266/.348/.591

proj: .275/.375/580
bb: 14%
k: 33%
gb: 40%
iff: 2%
ifh: 4%
babip: low on groundballs over time as he pulls the vast majority of them; very very high on flyballs because he almost never pops out in the infield at all and many of his flyballs are very deep. also since so few of his flyballs stay in the park (only 2/3 or so), a higher percentage of his balls in play are line drives-- which he does well on like many power hitters-- his low contact rate means he sometimes make poor contact though. probably above average overall-- my system sees him at .310.
s/c/z: swings a lot especially for someone who doesn't see many strikes. however, he is pretty good at distinguishing pulls from strikes despite the consensus on him. he makes terrible contact overall though
r/l: 1.064 vs .786 ops: say it with me "that means he's good against righties, not bad against lefties!" in fact, he's the best hitter against righties in baseball right now probably. his k/bb vs lhp is 3.7 vs 1.6 vs rhp. he has a lot of power against lefties however, but a lower babip. i don't have split data on pull% vs lhp/rhp but observationally i'm pretty sure that's the difference in his babip: .338 vs .309.
h/a: much higher babip on road. very similar hr numbers. 2.0 vs 3.2 k/bb.
p/o: pull hitter, especially on groundballs-- hits more homeruns the opposite way though
other: struggles mightily against power pitchers and groundball pitchers, dominate flyball pitchers (since he almost never pops out, and has 10.3% hr rate) and smashes finesse pitchers (11.8% hr rate); he also does much better on babip with runners on base as defenders can't shift against him-- especially with runners in scoring position

5) RF Jayson Werth (R): .251/.346/.448

proj: .270/.360/.460
bb: 12.5%
k: 29%
gb: 38%
iff: 8%
ifh: 8%
babip: high on groundballs due to high infield hit rate, high on line drives due to power, and hits pretty deep flyballs too; has been historically probably higher than it should be since he's faced more lhp than normal rhb do; overall still seems to be very above average. my system has him at .329.
s/c/z: very selective and pretty good eye; somewhat low contact rate
r/l: .762 vs .919 ops; 2.4 vs 2.0 k/bb; hr rate of 6.7% vs 2.9%
h/a: not much of a split at all
p/o: spreads ball around well for power hitter, but still a pull hitter
other: stole 20 bases in 21 attempts last year

6) LF Raul Ibanez (L): .337/.395/.703

proj: .285/.350/.480
bb: 9%
k: 17%
gb: 42%
iff: 11%
ifh: 5%
babip: above average, probably because he spreads the ball around pretty well for a power hitter; much better babip with men on-- probably hooks ball in hole well or maybe he was shifted against more so beforehand. my system sees him right at .300.
s/c/z: definitely a good eye though it's getting worse, slightly above average contact
r/l: .850 vs .733; 1.5 vs 2.8 k/bb
h/a: better k/bb (1.6 vs 1.9) but worse power probably park factors, and probably likely to be better at home
p/o: slight pull hitter but not much for a power hitter
other: none

7) 3B Pedro Feliz (R): .298/.356/.421

proj: .250/.300/.420
bb: 6%
k: 15.5%
gb: 44%
iff: 15%
ifh: 5%
babip: very low-- pops up a lot, hits groundballs predictably to left side and is slow so they can play shaded over and deep; not all that much power so not terrific on line drives either, makes a lot of weak contact as he isn't good at making contact so he chops a lot of balls. my system sees him at .271.
s/c/z: high swing rate and not terribly good at distinguishing balls from strikes. swung significantly less in 2008, but it was as much of a decrease in balls as strikes, makes average contact
r/l: 3.3 vs 2.3 k/bb; .708 vs .755 ops, more babip and a little more power agaisnt lefties
h/a: much higher k rate on road, similar bb rate; more power on road, higher babip at home. likely not much difference (.725 vs .716 overall ops)
p/o: definite pull hitter
other: defensive numbers dipped last year, had offseason surgery for back, perhaps these are related

8) Carlos Ruiz (R): .291/.419/.477

proj: .255/.335/.390
bb: 10%
k: 14%
gb: 50% (but rose in 2008 to 54% from 46%)
iff: 9.5%
ifh: 4%
babip: was extraordinarily low in 2008, but that seems to be rather flukey. his high groundball rate and solid contact rate and pitch selection indicate he should be a good babip guy, but he does very poorly on groundball as he chops the ball a lot. my system sees him at .288, but he seems to have trouble matching projections for him.
s/c/z: very good eye and excellent contact skill, extremely patient
r/l: bizarre reverse split despite 0.5 k/bb vs lhp and 1.2 vs rhp; impossibly low .204 babip against lhp, probably flukey and probably much better vs lhp in reality
h/a: similar k/bb, worse babip but higher power at home (park factors)
p/o: slight pull hitter
other: better against power pitchers, currently on DL with strained rib cage, probably longer than 15 days as originally thought

BENCH

IF/OF Eric Bruntlett (R): .135/.190/.243

proj: .240/.325/.335
bb: 10%
k: 18%
gb: 41%
iff: 14%
ifh: 5%
babip: high popup rate leads to low babip, but not that low; also doesn't do all that well on line drives due to lack of power
s/c/z: somewhat above average eye and doesn't swing much; makes very good contact, sees a lot of strikes
r/l: .592 vs .764 ops; 2.5 vs 1.2 k/bb; 5.7% vs 8.8% xbh/ab-- he's actually average if not above average against lhp; he just is terrible against rhb. he should be used as a counterswitch to loogy use against lefty pinch hitters
h/a: more power at home and more walks at home; similar strikeout rate and babip
p/o: opposite field hitter
other: none

IF Greg Dobbs (L): .200/.288/.378

proj: .285/.335/.445
bb: 7%
k: 17%
gb: 36%
iff: 13.5%
ifh: 3%
babip: has been high but probably should not be projected as high-- success derives from impossibly high line drive babip which doesn't typically happen for non-extreme power hitters. given his popup rate, he probably isn't a .320 babip guy and there isn't a .285 hitter
s/c/z: poor eye but very high swing rate; average contact rate
r/l: .761 vs .579 ops despite impossible .481 babip against lhp. in reality, he strikes out in 48% of at-bats against lhp. he should never see them. absolutely no power against lefties also.
h/a: virtually no split at all
p/o: pull hitter
other: much better against finesse pitchers

OF Matt Stairs (L): .303/.477/.606

proj: .255/.340/.440
bb: 11%
k: 22%
gb: 42%
iff: 11.5%
ifh: 5%
babip: average all around. my system sees him at .295.
s/c/z: very good eye and slightly below average contact
r/l: .862 vs .748; much more power against rhp; 1.4 vs 2.1 k/bb
h/a: not much of a split at all
p/o: slight pull hitter but not much for a power hitter
other: use stairs in case of emergency

OF John Mayberry Jr. (R): .222/.222/.667

proj: .235/.290/.415
bb: 6.5%
k: 27%
iff: around 15-20% in minors
ifh: ?
babip: hits ball hard but pops up a lot; probably a bit average but tough to know; projected below average
s/c/z: not enough info
r/l: batter against lefties, particularly at making contact, in minors
h/a: not enough info
p/o: not enough info
other: none

C Chris Coste (R): .246/.364/.446

proj: .265/.315/.405
bb: 5.5%
k: 17.5%
gb: 40%
iff: 10%
ifh: 6%
babip: slightly below average, seemingly due to poor eye and swinging and hitting bad pitches. my system sees him at .294.
s/c/z: high swing rate, pretty poor eye, average contact
r/l: .747 vs .855; same k/bb rate, much better babip against lhp, similar power but slightly more vs lhp
h/a: .886 vs .679; 5.4% vs 1.5% hr rate
p/o: pull hitter
other: struggles with power pitchers somewhat

ROTATION

THURSDAY STARTER: Cole Hamels (L): 5.21 ERA, 1.9 BB/9, 9.3 K/9, 1.9 HR/9, 4.45 FIP, 39% GB

proj avg: 3.45 ERA, 2.3 BB/9, 8.4 K/9, 1.1 HR/9
gb: 40%
pitches: 55% fb, 32% ch, 14% cb
r/l: .680 vs .748, but same 3.6 k/bb both ways; slightly more power vs lhb-- this is probably selection bias as managers withhold all but the best lefties against him (explaining 20% of hitters faced are lefties only)
h/a: 3.85 vs 3.4 k/bb; .676 vs .709 ops-- less of a difference due to higher HR rate at home
other: much higher k-rate at night: 25% vs 20%, which is statistically significant. ERA difference (4.71 vs 3.01 exaggerated by babip difference), as HR rate and XBH rate very similar. most likely he strikes out more at night.

Hamels vs Dodgers:

Blake: 4/11, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K, 1 HBP
Hudson: 2/9, 1 2B, 0 BB, 3 K
Kemp: 3/9, 1 2B, 0 BB, 4 K
Loney: 2/9, 1 2B, 1 HR, 0 BB, 1 K
Martin: 3/8, 1 HR, 1 BB, 2 K
Pierre: 2/8, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K, 1 Sac
Ethier: 0/7, 0 BB, 2 K
Ausmus: 0/4, 1 BB, 1 K
Castro: 0/4, 1 BB, 1 K
Furcal: 1/3, 0 BB, 1 K
Loretta: 1/3, 0 BB, 0 K

FRIDAY STARTER: Jamie Moyer (L): 6.75 ERA, 2.7 BB/9, 5.1 K/9, 2.4 HR/9, 6.56 FIP, 38% GB

proj avg: 4.80 ERA, 2.8 BB/9, 5.5 K/9, 1.2 HR/9
gb: 39%
pitches: 41% fb, 30% ct, 24% ch, 6% cb
r/l: virtually no split but that seems to be selection as he sees 24% lefties only compared with 32% league average for lhp
h/a: 2.3 vs 1.9 k/bb; not much difference on contact; slightly better babip at home but not more so than the average starter gets

Moyer vs Dodgers:

Loretta: 3/19, 1 2B, 3 BB, 1 K, 1 Sac, 1 SF
Hudson: 6/22, 3 2B, 1 HR, 0 BB, 3 K, 1 Sac
Blake: 3/19, 2 HR, 1 BB, 4 K
Ausmus: 4/17, 1 2B, 1 BB, 5 K
Pierre: 3/13, 0 BB, 0 K, 1 Sac, 1 HBP
Furcal: 4/10, 1 2B, 1 BB, 1 K
Castro: 2/7, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K
Ethier: 1/6, 0 BB, 1 K
Martin: 1/4, 2 BB, 1 K
Kemp: 2/5, 0 BB, 0 K
Loney: 2/4, 0 BB, 0 K, 1 SF

SATURDAY STARTER: Joe Blanton (R): 5.86 ERA, 3.1 BB/9, 8.2 K/9, 1.7 HR/9, 4.92 FIP, 39% GB

proj avg: 4.25 ERA, 2.5 BB/9, 5.8 K/9, 0.9 HR/9
gb: 45%
pitches: 56% fb, 16% ch, 15% sl, 12% cb
r/l: 2.3 vs 1.8 k/bb; .750 vs .719 ops
h/a: 2.2 vs 2.0 k/bb; .698 vs .776 ops; much worse babip away (.313 vs .282), more power surrendered on road
other: extraordinarily good against leadoff hitters, especially the first hitter of games

Blanton vs Dodgers:

Blake: 1/21, 3 BB, 7 K, 1 Sac
Kemp: 2/8, 1 2B, 2 BB, 2 K
Ethier: 4/8, 1 HR, 1 BB, 2 K
Hudson: 2/8, 0 BB, 0 K
Loney: 2/5, 1 BB, 0 K
Loretta: 1/6, 1 2B, 0 BB, 1 K
Martin: 2/5, 1 2B, 1 BB, 1 K
Frucal: 0/4, 0 BB, 1 K
Castro: 0/3, 0 BB, 1 K

SUNDAY STARTER: Antonio Bastardo (L): 1.50 ERA, 1.5 BB/9, 7.5 K/9, 1.5 HR/9, 4.65 FIP, 19% GB

proj avg: 5.60 ERA, 4.8 BB/9, 7.0 K/9, 1.9 HR/9
gb: 40% in minors
pitches: ?
r/l: 2.1 vs 4.1 k/bb in minor league career
h/a: much better control at home in minor league control

Bastardo: has not played Padres

NOT STARTING THIS SERIES: J.A. Happ (L): 2.48 ERA, 3.2 BB/9, 6.8 K/9, 0.7 HR/9, 3.90 FIP, 36% GB

proj avg: 4.40 ERA, 3.8 BB/9, 7.7 K/9, 1.2 HR/9
gb: 29% in majors thus far; 42% in AAA in 2008
pitches: 64% fb, 18% ch, 14% sl, 2% ct, 2% cb
r/l: 1.7 vs 3.0 k/bb in majors thus far; 2.7 vs 3.5 k/bb in AAA in 2008
h/a: not enough info

Happ vs Dodgers:

Blake: 1 SF
Kemp: 1 BB
Loney: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K

BULLPEN

CL Brad Lidge (R): 7.40 ERA, 4.8 BB/9, 9.6 K/9, 2.2 HR/9, 5.94 FIP, 36% GB

proj avg: 3.50 ERA, 4.1 BB?9, 11.0 K/9, 0.8 HR/9
gb: 41% (though this went up to 46% with increased slider use in 2008)
pitches: 56% sl, 43% fb, 0.4% ch in 2008 (historically 54% fb, 42% sl)
r/l: 3.6 vs 2.8 k/bb; .601 vs .686 ops (tough to tell if that tendency became more or less extreme in 2008 due to limited sample size)
h/a: 3.6 vs 2.9 k/bb; .666 vs .614 ops though due to higher babip away
other: HR/Flyball plummeted in 2008-- probably unsustainably low and his ERA should rise; still rumors of him tipping pitches explain the HR/Flyball spike in 2006 & 2007

Lidge vs Dodgers:

Pierre: 3/10, 0 BB, 1 K
Furcal: 0/8, 1 BB, 4 K
Castro: 0/5, 0 BB, 2 K
Loretta: 3/5, 0 BB, 1 K
Hudson: 1/3, 1 BB, 1 K
Ethier: 1/2, 1 BB, 1 K
Kemp: 1/3, 1 3B, 0 BB, 0 K
Loney: 2/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Blake: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K, 1 SF
Martin: 0/2, 0 BB, 2 K

Ryan Madson (R): 2.39 ERA, 2.7 BB/9, 9.6 K/9, 0.0 HR/9, 1.93 FIP, 43% GB

proj avg: 3.80 ERA, 2.9 BB/9, 7.2 K/9, 0.8 HR/9
gb: 48%
pitches: 58% fb, 24% ch, 15% ct, 4% cb
r/l: 3.65 vs 1.8 k/bb; .714 vs .786 ops
h/a: no major split at all

Madson vs Dodgers:

Furcal: 3/18, 1 2B, 2 BB, 4 K
Pierre: 3/14, 1 3B, 2 BB (1 IBB), 1 K
Hudson: 4/8, 1 2B, 1 BB, 2 K
Ethier: 1/7, 1 BB, 0 K
Loretta: 3/7, 2 2B, 0 BB, 1 K, 1 SF
Loney: 2/6, 0 BB, 0 K
Ausmus: 1 BB, 2 Sac
Kemp: 2/3, 1 HR, 0 BB, 1 K
Martin: 0/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Blake: 1/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Castro: 1/2, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K

Scott Eyre (L): 2.84 ERA, 6.4 BB/9, 5.7 K/9, 1.4 HR/9, 6.31 FIP, 34% GB

proj avg: 4.20 ERA, 4.1 BB/9, 8.8 K/9, 0.9 HR/9
gb: 41%
pitches: 59% fb, 35% sl, 6% ch, 0.2% cb
r/l: 1.5 vs 1.9 k/bb; .815 vs .720 ops
h/a: not much of a split

Eyre vs Dodgers:

Loretta: 4/15, 2 BB, 4 K
Furcal: 2/6, 1 2B, 1 BB, 1 K
Pierre: 2/5, 0 BB, 0 K, 2 Sac
Ausmus: 1/4, 1 BB, 1 K
Castro: 2/4, 0 BB, 0 K
Ethier: 2/3, 1 2B, 1 HR, 0 BB, 1 K
Hudson: 1/3, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Kemp: 0/3, 0 BB, 1 K
Loney: 1/3, 0 BB, 2 K
Martin: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K

Jack Taschner (L): 3.92 ERA, 6.5 BB/9, 4.8 K/9, 0.9 HR/9, 5.81 FIP, 34% GB

proj avg: 4.50 ERA, 4.1 BB/9, 8.0 K/9, 1.0 HR/9
gb: 35%
pitches: 57% fb, 30% sl, 13% ch
r/l: 1.45 vs 2.2 k/bb; .754 vs .747-- large selection bias where he faces only very good lefties and not very good righties
h/a: .698 vs .797 ops; 2.1 vs 1.5 k/bb

Taschner vs Dodgers:

Ethier: 2/6, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Kemp: 0/6, 0 BB, 3 K
Loney: 2/5, 1 BB, 2 K
Furcal: 0/4, 0 BB, 0 K
Martin: 1/2, 1 2B, 2 BB, 0 K
Hudson: 1/2, 1 2B, 1 BB, 0 K
Loretta: 0/2, 1 BB, 0 K
Blake: 0/2, 0 BB, 1 K
Ausmus: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Pierre: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K

Chad Durbin (R): 4.23 ERA, 5.5 BB/9, 8.1 K/9, 1.0 HR/9, 5.03 FIP, 35% GB

proj avg: 4.10 ERA, 3.5 BB/9, 6.5 K/9, 1.0 HR/9
gb: 41%
pitches: 47% fb, 38% sl, 8% ch, 7% cb, 1% ct
r/l: virtually no split
h/a: somewhat of a reverse split but probably just noise

Durbin vs Dodgers:

Blake: 2/7, 1 HR, 0 BB, 3 K, 1 Sac, 1 SF, 1 HBP
Kemp: 2/6, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Hudson: 1/5, 1 3B, 0 BB, 2 K
Martin: 2/4, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Ethier: 0/2, 1 BB, 1 K
Loney: 1/1, 1 BB (IBB), 0 K
Loretta: 1/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Ausmus: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K
Furcal: 0/1, 0BB, 0K
Pierre: 1 BB

Clay Condrey (R): 2.20 ERA, 2.8 BB/9, 6.3 K/9, 1.3 HR/9, 4.51 FIP, 53% GB

proj avg: 4.50 ERA, 2.8 BB/9, 4.9 K/9, 0.8 HR/9
gb: 50%
pitches: 59% fb, 17% ct, 15% sl, 9% ch
r/l: 2.1 vs 1.3 k/bb; .761 vs .842 ops
h/a: .703 vs .898 ops; 2.2 vs 1.3 k/bb

Condrey vs Dodgers:

Ethier: 3/8, 0 BB, 0 K
Kemp: 7/8, 1 3B, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K
Pierre: 4/8, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Loney: 2/6, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Furcal: 3/5, 0 BB, 1 K
Martin: 2/4, 1 BB (IBB), 1 K
Blake: 1/3, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K
Castro: 0/3, 0 BB, 2 K
Ausmus: 1/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Hudson: 0/2, 0 BB, 1 K
Loretta: 1 BB

Chan Ho Park (R): 7.32 ERA, 5.0 BB/9, 6.6 K/9, 1.1 HR/9, 5.23 FIP, 42% GB

proj avg: 4.50 ERA, 3.5 BB/9, 7.3 K/9, 1.2 HR/9
gb: 45%
pitches: 51% FB, 29% SL, 12% cb, 5% ch, 4% ct
r/l: .666 vs .820 ops; 2.6 vs 1.3 k/bb; .280 vs .301 babip; 2.6% vs 3.6% HR rate-- much better against righties
h/a: 2.0 vs 1.7 k/bb; .708 vs .780 ops

Park vs Dodgers:

Pierre: 13/28, 3 2B, 1 3B, 3 BB, 1 K, 2 Sac
Furcal: 8/25, 2 2B, 3 BB, 2 K
Loretta: 7/23, 0 BB, 5 K
Ausmus: 4/17, 1 2B, 2 BB, 5 K, 2 Sac
Hudson: 5/14, 2 2B, 2 BB (1 IBB), 2 K
Ethier: 1/6, 1 2B, 0 BB, 1 K, 1 HBP
Castro: 0/4, 0 BB, 1 K, 1 Sac
Martin: 2/5, 0 BB, 0 K
Blake: 0/4, 0 BB, 3 K
Kemp: 1/3, 1 BB, 1 K
Loney: 0/3, 0 BB, 0 K

J.C. Romero (L): 0.00 ERA, 6.8 BB/9, 6.8 K/9, 0.0 HR/9, 3.90 FIP, 25% GB

proj avg: 4.00 ERA, 5.5 BB?9, 7.5 K/9, 0.7 HR/9
gb: 55%
pitches: 58% fb, 25% sl, 17% ch, 0.1% cb
r/l: 1.2 vs 2.2 k/bb; .814 vs. 591 ops
h/a: 1.6 vs 1.3 k/bb; .697 vs .768 ops

Romero vs Dodgers:

Blake: 1/10, 2 BB, 4 K, 1 Sac
Ausmus: 2/6, 0 BB, 1 K
Ethier: 2/3, 2 BB, 0 K
Hudson: 0/1, 3 BB, 1 K
Loney: 1/4, 0 BB, 0 K
Pierre: 2/4, 0 BB, 0 K
Furcal: 1/3, 1 3B, 0 BB, 0 K
Loretta: 1/3, 1 3B, 0 BB, 0 K
Martin: 2/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Kemp: 0/2, 0 BB, 1 K

Phillies at Padres: June 1-3

Matt Swartz — Mon, 01 Jun 2009 21:00:20 -0000

More photos » by David Zalubowski - AP

Adrian Gonzalez leads the majors in homeruns despite hitting at Petco Park. (AP Photo/David Zalubowski)

Browse more photos »

The Phillies crept back barely into first place this weekend, maintaining a half game lead by sweeping the Nationals. The Padres had an early season lead in the West when they came to Philadelphia during the second weekend of the season, and they took two of three from the Phillies before the fourth game of the series was rained out. Now, the Padres are back down to .500 at 25-25. The Phillies themselves sit in first at 28-20.

Monday's game pits Joe Blanton against Kevin Correia. Correia is an okay pitcher who is able to put up decent number in a pitcher's park, though not particularly this year. Blanton is coming off a solid starts in which he pitched seven scoreless innings and struck out a career high eleven batters.

Tuesday's game will be a tough one as still-a-Padre Jake Peavy goes up against Antonio Bastardo, who will be making his major league debut. Bastardo is a lefty who has torn through AA and AAA this year, earning him the start in Myers' stead. Peavy is putting up another solid season, despite swirling trade rumors.

Wednesday's game pits the Phillies' J.A. Happ against the Padres' Chris Young. Chris Young has been okay this year, but has struggled to strike out as many hitters and has walked quite a few more as well. Happ has been solid in his first couple starts since joining the rotation after a solid display in the bullpen early on.

All three games will be pretty late in the eastern time zone, so stay tuned to The Good Phight for coverage if you have some silly reason that you can't stay up til one in the morning.

MATCHUPS

Monday, 10:05-- Joe Blanton (R) vs Kevin Correia (R)

Tuesday, 10:05-- Antonio Bastardo (L) vs Jake Peavy (R)

Wednesday, 10:05-- J.A. Happ (L) vs Chris Young (R)

After the jump, I breakdown the players and their splits.

PADRES

LINE UP

(1) RF Brian Giles (L): .192/.282/.285

proj: .280/.375/.420
bb: 13%
k: 12%
gb: 37%
iff: 11%
ifh: 4%
babip: average overall
s/c/z: excellent eye and excellent contact skill
r/l: .966/.788 ops; 0.6 vs 0.9 k/bb
h/a: about the same
p/o: pull hitter
other: none

(2) 2B David Eckstein (R): .246/.326/.322

proj: .275/.340/.350
bb: 7%
k: 9%
gb: 47%
iff: 12%
ifh: 7%
babip: pretty good on groundballs but pretty low on line drives, high groundball rate helps-- about average overall
s/c/z: very good contact and sees a lot of pitches in zone. swings at below average number of strikes but average number of non-strikes.
r/l: .700/.741 ops; k/bb is 1.2 vs 0.8
h/a: .738/.687
p/o: slight pull hitter but spreads ball around pretty well
other: used to steal bases more frequently but only tried 3 times last year and was caught once. He hasn't tried to steal yet this year. In 2007, he cut back to 11 attempts.

(3) OF Scott Hairston (R): .326/.387/.560

proj: .255/.325/.465
bb: 8.5%
k: 23%
gb: 36%
iff: 16%
ifh: 12%
babip: slightly below average, .290ish, since he pops out a lot, but good on groundball since he gets infield hits and decent on line drives as he has some power
s/c/z: slightly below average contact
r/l: 3.5 vs 2.5 k/bb; .712 vs .842 ops
h/a: a bit better at home in career but seemingly mostly luck so far
p/o: definite pull hitter
other: none

(4) 1B Adrian Gonzalez (L): .287/.394/.641

proj: .280/.355/.500
bb: 10%
k: 21%
gb: 41%
iff: 5%
ifh: 2%
babip: above average, around .315, rarely pops out, though doesn't get many infield hits. power indicates he should do well on linedrives
s/c/z: swings at average amount of balls, but lets fewer strikes pass than other players; somewhat below average contact
r/l: .886/.743 ops; 1.9 vs 3.0 k/bb
h/a: far more power on road (park effects) but slightly better k/bb at home (1.9 vs 2.4) and better babip at home (.328 vs .283)
p/o: somewhat of a pull hitter but spreads ball around pretty well for power hitter
other: far more success against finesse pitchers

(5) 3B Kevin Kouzmanoff (R): .228/.281/.348

proj: .275/.325/.455
bb: 5.5%
k: 20%
gb: 41%
iff: 6%
ifh: 4%
babip: average all around, low on groundballs and high on flyballs due to infield hit/fly rates
s/c/z: free swinger and chases a lot of pitches while at it, pitchers don't throw him that many pitches out of strike zone, despite that and somewhat low contact rate
r/l: typical
h/a: better on road, even at k/bb rates
p/o: pull hitter
other: struggles against power pitchers

(6) LF Chase Headley (S): .236/.309/.366

proj: .265/.345/.430
bb: 10%
k: 27%
gb: 38%
iff: 2%
ifh: 4%
babip: projection systems have him high-- like .330s+, but it seems like it he should be around .310 or so, since even though he pops out rarely, he doesn't get many infield hits and his groundball rate was abnormally high last year. even then, given that his eye is nothing special and his contact skills aren't great, he's likely due for a drop-- i think his overall projections are probably high
s/c/z: not a great eye and prone to chase, poor contact skills
r/l: only 140 career PA as RHB so it's tough to know
h/a: not enough info, so far better away but mostly luck based stats
p/o: definite pull hitter both ways
other:

(7) C Nick Hundley (R): .250/.348/.408

proj: .235/.285/.400
bb: 7%
k: 23%
gb: 37%
iff: 12%
ifh: 7%
babip: projected to be poor and tough to tell from small mlb sample size
s/c/z: average all around so far, it seems
r/l: very small sample size but 5.0 vs 2.9 k/bb difference
h/a: 3.1 vs 5.3 k/bb
p/o: spreads ball around pretty well
other: none

(8) SS Chris Burke (R): .206/.270/.324

proj: .245/.325/.370
bb: 9%
k: 17.5%
gb: 38%
iff: 18%
ifh: 7%
babip: projected around .285 which might be a little high given popout rate and lack of significant power or contact skill, though he has some success with groundball babip
s/c/z: decent eye, somewhat patient, okay contact, sees a lot of strikes
r/l: .648 vs .730 ops; 2.3 vs 1.8 k/bb
h/a: .708 vs .652 ops; 2.1 vs 2.2 k/bb
p/o: pull hitter
other: none

BENCH

C Henry Blanco (R): .172/.273/.345

proj: .240/.290/.350
bb: 6%
k: 19%
gb: 37%
iff: 13%
ifh: 6%
babip: not much power and tendency to pop up; below average
s/c/z: good eye, okay contact
r/l: a little more power right-handed
h/a: a little better k/bb at home but fewer extra base hits
p/o: pull hitter
other: none

IF Edgar Gonzalez (R): .180/.261/.426

proj: .270/.330/.400
bb: 8%
k: 22%
gb: 46%
iff: 2%
ifh: 4%
babip: definitely above average, rarely pops out and makes solid contact
s/c/z: great eye and good contact
r/l: k/bb of 4.7 vs 1.6; .685 vs .750 ops
h/a: typical given park effects
p/o: slight pull hitter
other: none

IF Josh Wilson (R): .209/.292/.279

proj: .245/.305/.365
bb: 7%
k: 20%
gb: 43%
iff: 10%
ifh: 6%
babip: projected slightly below average, around .295, which seems about right
s/c/z: not a great eye but somewhat patient, above average contact, sees a lot of strikes
r/l: .600 vs .594 ops in 259/104 PAs; 3.3 vs 2.9 k/bb
h/a: .578 vs .623 ops; 4.9 vs 2.3 k/bb
p/o: somewhat of a pull hitter
other: none

OF Tony Gwynn Jr. (L): .320/.393/.440

proj: .250/.315/.330
bb: 8%
k: 16.5%
gb: 49%
iff: 5%
ifh: 8%
babip: projected around .305 which seems about right
s/c/z: very patient with pretty good eye and above average contact, sees a decent amount of strikes
r/l: .599 vs .688 but only 30 career PA vs LHP; 2.3 vs 4.5 k/bb
h/a: .585 vs .628 ops; 1.6 vs 4.1 k/bb
p/o: pull hitter
other: none

OF Cliff Floyd (L): 0 for1 with 1 K

proj: .255/.340/.410
bb: 9.5%
k: 20%
gb: 42%
iff: 14%
ifh: 5%
babip: projected around .290 which could be right given powerful slow popout hitter
s/c/z: good eye with so-so contact, but his eye is actually deteriorated
r/l: .856 vs .793 ops; 1.5 vs 3.2 k/bb
h/a: .861 vs .823 ops; 1.7 vs 1.8 k/bb
p/o: pull hitter
other: none

ROTATION

MONDAY OPPONENT: Kevin Correia (R): 5.11 ERA, 4.0 BB/9, 6.6 K/9, 0.9 HR/9, 4.42 FIP, 42%

proj avg: 4.40 ERA, 3.5 BB/9, 6.7 K/9, 1.0 HR/9
gb: 39%
pitches: 60% fb, 27% sl, 9% ch, 4% cb
r/l: 2.3 vs 1.2; .762 vs .819
h/a: similar

Correia vs Phillies:

Rollins: 0/9, 0 BB, 1 K
Victorino: 3/5, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K
Howard: 0/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Utley: 1/3, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Bruntlett: 0/2, 0 BB, 1 K
Ruiz: 1/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Dobbs: 1 BB
Ibanez: 1/1, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K
Stairs: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Werth: 1 BB

TUESDAY OPPONENT: Jake Peavy (R): 3.67 ERA, 2.9 BB/9, 10.3 K/9, 0.9 HR/9, 3.13 FIP, 41% GB

proj avg: 3.25 ERA, 2.9 BB/9, 9.0 K/9, 0.9 HR/9
gb: 42%
pitches: 57% fb, 18% sl, 17% ct, 7% cb, 6% ch
r/l: 3.8 vs 2.6 k/bb, .603 vs .740 ops
h/a: .614/.737 ops's, 3.7/2.5 k/bb's

Peavy vs Phillies:

Feliz: 8/39, 2 2B< 1 HR, 1 BB, 9 K
Rollins: 3/12, 1 3B, 1 HR, 3 BB, 1 K
Ibanez: 4/12, 1 2B, 1 HR, 2 BB, 1 K
Werth: 1/11, 0 BB, 7 K
Howard: 2/8, 1 2B< 0 BB, 3 K, 1 SF
Utley: 0/8, 1 BB, 2 K
Stairs: 0/5, 0 BB, 2 K
Victorino: 3/5, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Coste: 0/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Dobbs: 2/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Ruiz: 0/2, 1 BB (IBB), 0 K

WEDNESDAY OPPONENT: Chris Young (R): 4.45 eRA, 4.45 BB/9, 6.6 K/9, 0.9 HR/9, 4.52 FIP, 32% GB

proj avg: 3.85 ERA, 3.85 BB/9, 8.0 K/9, 1.1 HR/9
gb: 28%
pitches: 75% fb, 18% sl, 5% ch, 2% cb
r/l: 2.6 vs 2.2 k/bb, .647 vs .674 ops
h/a: 2.8 vs 2.1 k/bb

Young vs Phillies:

Ibanez: 6/23, 1 2B, 1 3B, 2 BB, 3 K
Feliz: 2/15, 1 Bb, 3 K
Utley: 4/11, 1 2B, 2 HR, 0 BB, 3 K
Dobbs: 1/8, 0 BB, 4 K
Howard: 1/5, 1 2B, 4 BB, 2 K
Rollins: 1/6, 0 BB, 1 K
Victorino: 2/6, 0 BB, 1 K
Werth: 0/4, 1 BB, 2 K
Bruntlett: 1/4, 0 BB, 2 K
Coste: 2/4, 2 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Ruiz: 0/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Stairs: 1/3, 1 2B, 0 BB, 1 K

NOT FACING US THIS SERIES: Josh Geer (R): 5.17 ERA, 1.5 BB/9, 4.6 K/9, 1.7 HR/9, 5.20 FIP, 44% GB

proj avg: 4.70 ERA, 2.8 BB/9, 5.0 K/9, 1.1 HR/9
gb: 35%
pitches: 64% fb, 22% ch, 14% sl

Geer vs Phillies:

Bruntlett: 0/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Coste: 0/3, 0 BB, 1 K
Feliz: 1/3, 0 BB, 1 K
Howard: 2/3, 1 3B, 0 BB, 1 K
Ibanez; 1/3, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Stairs: 0/3, 0 BB, 1 K
Utley: 1/3, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K
Victorino: 1/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Cairo: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K

NOT FACING US THIS SERIES: Chad Gaudin (R): 4.76 ERA, 5.9 BB/9, 8.2 K/9, 0.2 HR/9, 3.94 FIP, 48% GB

proj avg: 4.10 ERA, 3.7 BB/9, 7.2 K/9, 0.9 HR/9
gb: 44%
pitches: 64% fb, 28 sl, 8% ch, 0.1% cb
r/l: .744 vs .812 ops; 2.7 vs 0.8 k/bb
h/a: .780 vs .773 ops; 1.6 vs 1.5 k/bb

Gaudin vs Phillies:

Ibanez: 7/18, 2 2B, 1 3B, 1 HR, 3 BB, 5 K, 1 SF
Feliz: 2/8, 1 BB, 2 K
Stairs: 3/6, 1 2B, 1 HR, 1 BB (IBB), 0 K
Dobbs: 2/2, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Werth: 0/1, 1 BB, 1 K
Bruntlett: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Coste: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Howard: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Rollins: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Ruiz: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Utley: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K

BULPEN

CL Heath Bell (R): 1.27 ERA, 2.5 BB/9, 11.0 K/9, 0.0 HR/9, 1.57 FIP, 51% GB

proj avg: 3.30 ERA, 3.2 BB/9, 9.0 K/9, 0.7 HR/9
gb: 50%
pitches: 72% fb, 28% sl
r/l: 4.7 vs 2.2 k/bb but .687 vs .616 ops since more power surrendered to lhb
h/a: .573/.726 ops split but k/bb even

Bell vs Phillies:

Utley: 2/8, 1 2B, 2 BB, 1 K
Howard: 1/8, 0 BB, 4 K
Rollins: 0/8, 0 BB, 0 K
Feliz: 2/6, 0 BB, 0 K
Ibanez: 2/4, 1 BB (IBB), 0 K
Victorino: 1/5, 0 BB, 1 K
WertH: 1/4, 0 BB, 2 K
Ruiz: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K, 1 Sac
Stairs: 0/2, 0 BB, 2 K
Bruntlett: 1 BB
Coste: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K

Edward Mujica (R): 2.49 ERA, 2.1 BB/9, 10.0 K/9, 0.7 HR/9, 2.69 FIP, 33% GB

proj avg: 4.40 ERA, 2.8 BB/9, 7.0 K/9, 1.0 HR/9
gb: 28%
pitches: 67% fb, 9% sl, 6% cb, 2% ch, 17% sf
r/l: 8.0 k/bb vs righties, but mostly just no walks; 1.5 k/bb vs lefties in minimal experience
h/a: not enough info

Mujica vs Phillies:

Cairo: 1/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Dobbs: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Ibanez: 1/1, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K
Rollins: 1/1, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K
Utley: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Victorino: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K

Greg Burke (R): 1.35 ERA, 0.0 BB/9, 5.4 K/9, 0.0 HR/9, 1.96 FIP, 47% GB

proj avg: 4.50 ERA, 2.8 BB/9, 6.0 K/9, 1.0 HR/9
gb: 53% in majors so far
pitches: 71% fb, 28% sl, 1% ch
r/l: not much of a clear split in minors
h/a: not enough info

Burke: has not played any Phillies

Cla Meredith (R): 3.06 ERA, 3.1 BB/9, 6.1 K/9, 0.5 HR/9, 3.73 FIP, 61% GB

proj avg: 3.70 ERA, 2.6 BB/9, 6.7 K/9, 0.7 HR/9
gb: 69%
pitches: 79% fb (I think sinkers count as fastballs on fangraphs), 18% sl, 3% ch
r/l: 4.3 vs 1.4; .612 vs .794: major ROOGY
h/a: .637 vs .721 and 2.9 vs 2.7 k/bb

Meredith vs Phillies:

Feliz: 1/9, 0 BB, 5 K, 1 SF
Ibanez: 3/5, 1 2B, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K
Werth: 1/3, 0 BB, 0 K, 1 SF
Howard: 1/2, 1 BB (IBB), 0 K
Rollins: 1/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Bruntlett: 0/2, 0BB, 1 K
Dobbs: 1/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Utley: 1/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Victorino: 1/1, 1 BB, 0 K
Coste: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Ruiz: 1/1, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K

Luke Gregerson (R): 3.38 ERA, 4.6 BB/9, 9.2 K/9, 0.3 HR/9, 3.09 FIP, 46% GB

proj avg: unprojected
gb: very high groundball rates in minors
pitches: 55% fb, 33% sl, 9% ch, 3% cb in majors so far
r/l: much better against righties and walks a lot of lefties in minors
h/a: not enough info

Gregerson vs Phillies:

Howard: 1/2, 1 HR, 0 BB, 1 K
Feliz: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Ibanez: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K
Utley: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Victorino: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Werth: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K

Joe Thatcher (L)

proj avg: 4.00 ERA, 3.3 BB/9, 7.1 K/9, 0.8 HR/9
gb: 46%
pitches: 78% fb, 13% sl, 6% ct, 1% ch, 1% cb
r/l: .717 vs .978 ops in majors with 1.1 vs 3.0 k/bb-- reverse split
h/a: 1.3 vs 2.0 k/bb; .725 vs .851 ops

Thatcher vs Phillies:

Feliz: 0/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Bruntlett: 0/2, 0 BB, 1 K
Coste: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Howard: 1/1, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K
Utley: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K
Victorino: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K

Luis Perdomo (R): 4.70 ERA, 4.1 BB/9, 4.1 K/9, 1.2 HR/9, 5.31 FIP, 44% GB

proj avg: 4.90 ERA, 4.6 BB/9, 7.0 K/9, 1.2 HR/9
gb: 47% in AAA
pitches: ?
r/l: not enough info
h/a: not enough info

Perdomo vs Phillies:

Coste: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Feliz: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Rollins: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Ibanez: 1 BB
Werth: 1 BB

PHILLIES

LINE UP

1) SS Jimmy Rollins (S): .226/.270/.337

projection average (proj): .285/.350/.460
projected BB/PA (bb): 8%
projected K/AB (k): 11%
career gb% (gb): 42%
career infield flies/flyball (iff): 10%
career infield hits/groundball (ifh): 5%
batting average on balls in play tendencies (babip): about average overall, though a little bit high popup rate so slightly below average. my system has him at about .308.
swing/contact/zone facts (s/c/z): good eye, pretty selective, but very high contact rate so low walk rate
righty/lefty (r/l): 1.7 vs 1.3 k/bb, mostly because of higher k-rate as lhb. otherwise similar on contact
home/away (h/a): 1.5 vs 1.7 k/bb; .805 vs .739 ops
pull/opposite (p/o): definite pull hitter
anything else (other): stole 47 bases in 50 attempts last year.

2) CF Shane Victorino (S): .293/.342/.449

proj: .285/.345/.430
bb: 7.5%
k: 13%
gb: 46%
iff: 15%
ifh: 8%
babip: slightly above average due to high babip on groundballs-- partly because infield plays in for him and he spreads the ball around well; not that high due to high infield fly rate. my system sees him at .303.
s/c/z: pretety bad eye but high contact rate
r/l: much more power righthanded (1.6% to 3.8% HR rate), but much better k/bb as lefty: 1.65 vs 1.88; higher babip lefty also (.316 vs .286)
h/a: far fewer walks on road but nearly exactly the same strikeout rate, same power, same babip
p/o: pull hitter both ways
other: stole 36 of 47 bases last year

3) 2B Chase Utley (L): .294/.430/.550

proj: .295/.380/.525
bb: 9.5%
k: 18%
gb: 37%
iff: 10%
ifh: 6%
babip: distinctly above average historically and for projections too; seemingly strong power leads to high line drive babip rate and reasonably high groundball babip especially for pull hitting lefty; high on flyballs despite high infield fly rate since he hits deep flyballs. my system has him at about .308, but he beats projection systems consistently.
s/c/z: pretty good eye, somewhat selective, somewhat high contact rate
r/l: not significant-- only 1.7 vs 2.0 k/bb; .919 vs .865 ops
h/a: similar k/bb home & away; better hr at home-- probably park factors; higher babip at home too
p/o: pull hitter
other: much better against power pitchers relative to other hitters

4) 1B Ryan Howard (L): .266/.340/.573

proj: .275/.375/580
bb: 14%
k: 33%
gb: 40%
iff: 2%
ifh: 4%
babip: low on groundballs over time as he pulls the vast majority of them; very very high on flyballs because he almost never pops out in the infield at all and many of his flyballs are very deep. also since so few of his flyballs stay in the park (only 2/3 or so), a higher percentage of his balls in play are line drives-- which he does well on like many power hitters-- his low contact rate means he sometimes make poor contact though. probably above average overall
s/c/z: swings a lot especially for someone who doesn't see many strikes. however, he is pretty good at distinguishing balls from strikes despite the consensus on him. he makes terrible contact overall though. my system sees him at .310.
r/l: 1.064 vs .786 ops: say it with me "that means he's good against righties, not bad against lefties!" in fact, he's the best hitter against righties in baseball right now probably. his k/bb vs lhp is 3.7 vs 1.6 vs rhp. he has a lot of power against lefties however, but a lower babip. i don't have split data on pull% vs lhp/rhp but observationally i'm pretty sure that's the difference in his babip: .338 vs .309.
h/a: much higher babip on road. very similar hr numbers. 2.0 vs 3.2 k/bb.
p/o: pull hitter, especially on groundballs-- hits more homeruns the opposite way though
other: struggles mightily against power pitchers and groundball pitchers, dominate flyball pitchers (since he almost never pops out, and has 10.3% hr rate) and smashes finesse pitchers (11.8% hr rate); he also does much better on babip with runners on base as defenders can't shift against him-- especially with runners in scoring position

5) RF Jayson Werth (R): .253/.342/.460

proj: .270/.360/.460
bb: 12.5%
k: 29%
gb: 38%
iff: 8%
ifh: 8%
babip: high on groundballs due to high infield hit rate, high on line drives due to power, and hits pretty deep flyballs too; has been historically probably higher than it should be since he's faced more lhp than normal rhb do; overall still seems to be very above average. my system has him at .329.
s/c/z: very selective and pretty good eye; somewhat low contact rate
r/l: .762 vs .919 ops; 2.4 vs 2.0 k/bb; hr rate of 6.7% vs 2.9%
h/a: not much of a split at all
p/o: spreads ball around well for power hitter, but still a pull hitter
other: stole 20 bases in 21 attempts last year

6) LF Raul Ibanez (L): .332/.394/.684

proj: .285/.350/.480
bb: 9%
k: 17%
gb: 42%
iff: 11%
ifh: 5%
babip: above average, probably because he spreads the ball around pretty well for a power hitter; much better babip with men on-- probably hooks ball in hole well or maybe he was shifted against more so beforehand. my system sees him right at .300.
s/c/z: definitely a good eye though it's getting worse, slightly above average contact
r/l: .850 vs .733; 1.5 vs 2.8 k/bb
h/a: better k/bb (1.6 vs 1.9) but worse power probably park factors, and probably likely to be better at home
p/o: slight pull hitter but not much for a power hitter
other: none

7) 3B Pedro Feliz (R): .302/.365/.432

proj: .250/.300/.420
bb: 6%
k: 15.5%
gb: 44%
iff: 15%
ifh: 5%
babip: very low-- pops up a lot, hits groundballs predictably to left side and is slow so they can play shaded over and deep; not all that much power so not terrific on line drives either, makes a lot of weak contact as he isn't good at making contact so he chops a lot of balls. my system sees him at .271.
s/c/z: high swing rate and not terribly good at distinguishing balls from strikes. swung significantly less in 2008, but it was as much of a decrease in balls as strikes, makes average contact
r/l: 3.3 vs 2.3 k/bb; .708 vs .755 ops, more babip and a little more power agaisnt lefties
h/a: much higher k rate on road, similar bb rate; more power on road, higher babip at home. likely not much difference (.725 vs .716 overall ops)
p/o: definite pull hitter
other: defensive numbers dipped last year, had offseason surgery for back, perhaps these are related

8) Carlos Ruiz (R): .304/.427/.506

proj: .255/.335/.390
bb: 10%
k: 14%
gb: 50% (but rose in 2008 to 54% from 46%)
iff: 9.5%
ifh: 4%
babip: was extraordinarily low in 2008, but that seems to be rather flukey. his high groundball rate and solid contact rate and pitch selection indicate he should be a good babip guy, but he does very poorly on groundball as he chops the ball a lot. my system sees him at .288.
s/c/z: very good eye and excellent contact skill, extremely patient
r/l: bizarre reverse split despite 0.5 k/bb vs lhp and 1.2 vs rhp; impossibly low .204 babip against lhp, probably flukey and probably much better vs lhp in reality
h/a: similar k/bb, worse babip but higher power at home (park factors)
p/o: slight pull hitter
other: better against power pitchers

BENCH

C Chris Coste (R): .254/.356/.460

proj: .265/.315/.405
bb: 5.5%
k: 17.5%
gb: 40%
iff: 10%
ifh: 6%
babip: slightly below average, seemingly due to poor eye and swinging and hitting bad pitches. my system sees him at .294.
s/c/z: high swing rate, pretty poor eye, average contact
r/l: .747 vs .855; same k/bb rate, much better babip against lhp, similar power but slightly more vs lhp
h/a: .886 vs .679; 5.4% vs 1.5% hr rate
p/o: pull hitter
other: struggles with power pitchers somewhat

IF/OF Eric Bruntlett (R): .118/.179/.235

proj: .240/.325/.335
bb: 10%
k: 18%
gb: 41%
iff: 14%
ifh: 5%
babip: high popup rate leads to low babip, but not that low; also doesn't do all that well on line drives due to lack of power
s/c/z: somewhat above average eye and doesn't swing much; makes very good contact, sees a lot of strikes
r/l: .592 vs .764 ops; 2.5 vs 1.2 k/bb; 5.7% vs 8.8% xbh/ab-- he's actually average if not above average against lhp; he just is terrible against rhb. he should be used as a counterswitch to loogy use against lefty pinch hitters
h/a: more power at home and more walks at home; similar strikeout rate and babip
p/o: opposite field hitter
other: none

IF Greg Dobbs (L): .132/.250/.211

proj: .285/.335/.445
bb: 7%
k: 17%
gb: 36%
iff: 13.5%
ifh: 3%
babip: has been high but probably should not be projected as high-- success derives from impossibly high line drive babip which doesn't typically happen for non-extreme power hitters. given his popup rate, he probably isn't a .320 babip guy and there isn't a .285 hitter
s/c/z: poor eye but very high swing rate; average contact rate
r/l: .761 vs .579 ops despite impossible .481 babip against lhp. in reality, he strikes out in 48% of at-bats against lhp. he should never see them. absolutely no power against lefties also.
h/a: virtually no split at all
p/o: pull hitter
other: much better against finesse pitchers

OF Matt Stairs (L): .281/.465/.594

proj: .255/.340/.440
bb: 11%
k: 22%
gb: 42%
iff: 11.5%
ifh: 5%
babip: average all around. my system sees him at .295.
s/c/z: very good eye and slightly below average contact
r/l: .862 vs .748; much more power against rhp; 1.4 vs 2.1 k/bb
h/a: not much of a split at all
p/o: slight pull hitter but not much for a power hitter
other: use stairs in case of emergency

OF John Mayberry Jr. (R): .222/.222/.667

proj: .235/.290/.415
bb: 6.5%
k: 27%
iff: around 15-20% in minors
ifh: ?
babip: hits ball hard but pops up a lot; probably a bit average but tough to know; projected below average
s/c/z: not enough info
r/l: batter against lefties, particularly at making contact, in minors
h/a: not enough info
p/o: not enough info
other: none

ROTATION

MONDAY STARTER: Joe Blanton (R): 6.14 ERA, 3.3 BB/9, 8.4 K/9, 1.6 HR/9, 4.80 FIP, 40% GB

proj avg: 4.25 ERA, 2.5 BB/9, 5.8 K/9, 0.9 HR/9
gb: 45%
pitches: 56% fb, 16% ch, 15% sl, 12% cb
r/l: 2.3 vs 1.8 k/bb; .750 vs .719 ops
h/a: 2.2 vs 2.0 k/bb; .698 vs .776 ops; much worse babip away (.313 vs .282), more power surrendered on road
other: extraordinarily good against leadoff hitters, especially the first hitter of games

Blanton vs Padres:

Gonzalez: 2/8, 0 BB, 0 K
Burke: 0/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Eckstein: 3/3, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Blanco: 1/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Giles: 0/1, 1 BB, 1 K
Rodriguez: 0/1, 1 BB, 0 K

TUESDAY STARTER: Antonio Bastardo (L): has not played in majors 2009; but in AA: 1.82 ERA, 1.8 BB/9, 10.1 K/9, 0.3 HR/9 in 34.2 IP; in AAA: 2.08 ERA, 2.1 BB/9, 8.3 K/9, 0.7 HR/9 in 13 IP

proj avg: 5.60 ERA, 4.8 BB/9, 7.0 K/9, 1.9 HR/9
gb: 40% in minors
pitches: ?
r/l: 2.1 vs 4.1 k/bb in minor league career
h/a: much better control at home in minor league control

Bastardo: has not played Padres

WEDNESDAY STARTER: J.A. Happ (L): 3.00 ERA, 3.3 BB/9, 7.1 K/9, 0.8 HR/9, 4.13 FIP, 37% GB

proj avg: 4.40 ERA, 3.8 BB/9, 7.7 K/9, 1.2 HR/9
gb: 29% in majors thus far; 42% in AAA in 2008
pitches: 64% fb, 18% ch, 14% sl, 2% ct, 2% cb
r/l: 1.7 vs 3.0 k/bb in majors thus far; 2.7 vs 3.5 k/bb in AAA in 2008
h/a: not enough info

Happ vs Padres:

Hundley: 1/1, 1 BB, 0 K
Kouzmanoff: 2/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Gerut: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K
Giles: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
A.Gonzalez: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
E.Gonzalez: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Headley: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Rodriguez: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K

NOT STARTING THIS SERIES: Cole Hamels (L): 5.21 ERA, 1.9 BB/9, 9.3 K/9, 1.9 HR/9, 4.47 FIP, 39% GB

proj avg: 3.45 ERA, 2.3 BB/9, 8.4 K/9, 1.1 HR/9
gb: 40%
pitches: 55% fb, 32% ch, 14% cb
r/l: .680 vs .748, but same 3.6 k/bb both ways; slightly more power vs lhb-- this is probably selection bias as managers withhold all but the best lefties against him (explaining 20% of hitters faced are lefties only)
h/a: 3.85 vs 3.4 k/bb; .676 vs .709 ops-- less of a difference due to higher HR rate at home
other: much higher k-rate at night: 25% vs 20%, which is statistically significant. ERA difference (4.71 vs 3.01 exaggerated by babip difference), as HR rate and XBH rate very similar. most likely he strikes out more at night.

Hamels vs Padres:

Giles: 3/17, 1 2B, 0 BB, 2 K
A.Gonzalez: 5/15, 1 HR, 1 BB, 4 K, 1 HBP
Burke: 4/15, 1 BB, 6 K
Kouzmanoff: 2/12, 0 BB, 2 K
Hairston: 4/10, 2 2B, 2 HR, 0 BB, 2 K
Eckstein: 3/6, 1 2B, 1 BB, 1 K, 1 Sac, 1 SF
Headley: 2/6, 0 BB, 1 K
Rodriguez: 1/6, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K
E.Gonzalez: 0/4, 0 BB, 0 K
Hundley: 1/2, 1 HR, 1 BB, 0 K
Gerut: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K

NOT STARTING THIS SERIES: Jamie Moyer (L): 6.75 ERA, 2.7 BB/9, 5.1 K/9, 2.4 HR/9, 6.57 FIP, 38% GB

proj avg: 4.80 ERA, 2.8 BB/9, 5.5 K/9, 1.2 HR/9
gb: 39%
pitches: 41% fb, 30% ct, 24% ch, 6% cb
r/l: virtually no split but that seems to be selection as he sees 24% lefties only compared with 32% league average for lhp
h/a: 2.3 vs 1.9 k/bb; not much difference on contact; slightly better babip at home but not more so than the average starter gets

Moyer vs Padres:

Eckstein: 14/56, 2 2B, 1 HR, 1 BB, 3 K, 1 Sac
Giles: 4/17, 1 2B, 3 BB, 1 K
A.Gonzalez: 5/15, 3 HR, 0 BB, 0 K, 1 Sf
Kouzmanoff: 5/12, 1 2B, 1 HR, 0 BB, 2 K
Blanco: 5/11, 0 BB, 0 K
Gerut: 1/7, 0 BB, 0 K
Hariston: 0/5, 2 BB, 0 K
Burke: 0/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Headley: 0/3, 0 BB, 1 K
Hundley: 0/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Rodriguez: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K

BULLPEN

CL Brad Lidge (R): 7.71 ERA, 5.0 BB/9, 10.0 K/9, 2.3 HR/9, 6.08 FIP, 38% GB

proj avg: 3.50 ERA, 4.1 BB?9, 11.0 K/9, 0.8 HR/9
gb: 41% (though this went up to 46% with increased slider use in 2008)
pitches: 56% sl, 43% fb, 0.4% ch in 2008 (historically 54% fb, 42% sl)
r/l: 3.6 vs 2.8 k/bb; .601 vs .686 ops (tough to tell if that tendency became more or less extreme in 2008 due to limited sample size)
h/a: 3.6 vs 2.9 k/bb; .666 vs .614 ops though due to higher babip away
other: HR/Flyball plummeted in 2008-- probably unsustainably low and his ERA should rise; still rumors of him tipping pitches explain the HR/Flyball spike in 2006 & 2007

Lidge vs Padres:

Eckstein: 2/8, 2 BB, 1 K, 1 HBP
Giles: 2/8, 1 3B, 2 BB, 0 K
A.Gonzalez: 2/6, 1 2B, 1 BB, 2 K
Kouzmanoff: 3/5, 2 HR, 0 BB, 0 K
Headley: 1/3, 1 BB, 2 K
Blanco: 1/2, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K
Burke: 0/1, 1 BB, 1 K
Gerut: 1/1, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
E.Gonzalez: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K
Hairston: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K
Hundley: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K
Rodriguez: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K

Ryan Madson (R): 2.49 ERA, 2.8 BB/9, 10.0 K/9, 0.0 HR/9, 1.90 FIP, 42% GB

proj avg: 3.80 ERA, 2.9 BB/9, 7.2 K/9, 0.8 HR/9
gb: 48%
pitches: 58% fb, 24% ch, 15% ct, 4% cb
r/l: 3.65 vs 1.8 k/bb; .714 vs .786 ops
h/a: no major split at all

Madson vs Padres:

A.Gonzalez: 4/9, 1 2B, 0 BB, 1 K
Giles: 3/8, 2 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Burke: 2/5, 0 BB, 1 K
Hairston: 3/5, 1 2B, 1 HR, 0 BB, 1 K
Eckstein: 0/3, 1 BB, 0 K
Blanco: 1/3, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Gerut: 1/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Headley: 1/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Hundley: 1/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Rodriguez: 0/1, 1 BB, 1 K
E.Gonzalez: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K

Scott Eyre (L): 3.09 ERA, 6.2 BB/9, 5.4 K/9, 1.5 HR/9, 6.50 FIP, 36% GB

proj avg: 4.20 ERA, 4.1 BB/9, 8.8 K/9, 0.9 HR/9
gb: 41%
pitches: 59% fb, 35% sl, 6% ch, 0.2% cb
r/l: 1.5 vs 1.9 k/bb; .815 vs .720 ops
h/a: not much of a split

Eyre vs Padres:

Giles: 3/16, 1 2B, 2 BB, 3 K, 1 SF
Eckstein: 3/7, 0 BB, 0 K, 1 SF
Burke: 1/2, 1 2B, 2 BB, 1 K
A.Gonzalez: 0/4, 0 BB, 1 K
Gerut: 0/3, 0 BB, 1 K
Hairston: 1/3, 1 HR, 0 BB, 1 K
Blanco: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K

Jack Taschner (L): 3.92 ERA, 6.5 BB/9, 4.8 K/9, 0.9 HR/9, 5.82 FIP, 34% GB

proj avg: 4.50 ERA, 4.1 BB/9, 8.0 K/9, 1.0 HR/9
gb: 35%
pitches: 57% fb, 30% sl, 13% ch
r/l: 1.45 vs 2.2 k/bb; .754 vs .747-- large selection bias where he faces only very good lefties and not very good righties
h/a: .698 vs .797 ops; 2.1 vs 1.5 k/bb

Taschner vs Padres:

Giles: 3/17, 1 3B, 2 BB, 4 K
A.Gonzalez: 5/12, 1 2B, 2 HR, 2 BB (1 IBB), 3 K, 1 HBP
Hairston: 2/4, 1 2B, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K
Kouzmanoff: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Rodriguez: 0/2, 0 BB, 1 K
Eckstein: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Gerut: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K
E.Gonzalez: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K

Chad Durbin (R): 4.50 ERA, 5.2 BB/9, 8.0 K/9, 1.0 HR/9, 5.08 FIP, 34% GB

proj avg: 4.10 ERA, 3.5 BB/9, 6.5 K/9, 1.0 HR/9
gb: 41%
pitches: 47% fb, 38% sl, 8% ch, 7% cb, 1% ct
r/l: virtually no split
h/a: somewhat of a reverse split but probably just noise

Durbin vs Padres:

Eckstein: 1/11, 0 BB, 0 K
Giles: 1/4, 0 BB, 1 K
Blanco: 0/3, 0 BB, 0 K
A.Gonzalez: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Hairston: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Hundley: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K
Kouzmanoff: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K

Clay Condrey (R): 2.20 ERA, 2.8 B/9, 6.3 K/9, 1.3 HR/9, 4.52 FIP, 53% GB

proj avg: 4.50 ERA, 2.8 BB/9, 4.9 K/9, 0.8 HR/9
gb: 50%
pitches: 59% fb, 17% ct, 15% sl, 9% ch
r/l: 2.1 vs 1.3 k/bb; .761 vs .842 ops
h/a: .703 vs .898 ops; 2.2 vs 1.3 k/bb

Condrey vs Padres:

Burke: 0/3, 0 BB, 1 K
Hairston: 1/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Eckstein: 2/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Gerut: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Giles: 1/1, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
A.Gonzalez: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
E.Gonzalez: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Headley: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Hundley: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K
Kouzmanoff: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K

Chan Ho Park (R): 6.57 ERA, 4.7 BB/9, 6.3 K/9, 1.2 HR/9, 5.25 FIP, 43% GB

proj avg: 4.50 ERA, 3.5 BB/9, 7.3 K/9, 1.2 HR/9
gb: 45%
pitches: 51% FB, 29% SL, 12% cb, 5% ch, 4% ct
r/l: .666 vs .820 ops; 2.6 vs 1.3 k/bb; .280 vs .301 babip; 2.6% vs 3.6% HR rate-- much better against righties
h/a: 2.0 vs 1.7 k/bb; .708 vs .780 ops

Park vs Padres:

Eckstein: 7/23, 2 2B, 4 BB, 0 K, 1 HBP
Giles: 7/19, 4 2B, 1 3B, 1 HR, 1 BB, 1 K
Blanco: 0/11, 2 BB (1 IBB), 4 K, 1 HBP
Gerut: 2/7, 0 BB, 1 K
Burke: 0/4, 0 BB, 2 K, 1 Sac
Kouzmanoff: 2/5, 0 BB, 2 K
A.Gonzalez: 2/4, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K
E.Gonzalez: 2/4, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K
Headley: 0/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Hundley: 1/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Hairston: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Rodriguez: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K

SUSPENDED UNTIL WEDNESDAY: J.C. Romero (L)

proj avg: 4.00 ERA, 5.5 BB?9, 7.5 K/9, 0.7 HR/9
gb: 55%
pitches: 58% fb, 25% sl, 17% ch, 0.1% cb
r/l: 1.2 vs 2.2 k/bb; .814 vs. 591 ops
h/a: 1.6 vs 1.3 k/bb; .697 vs .768 ops

Romero vs Padres:

Giles: 1/8, 1 HR, 2 BB, 3 K
Gerut: 0/7, 2 BB, 3 K
A.Gonzalez: 0/4, 0 BB, 1 K
Eckstein: 0/3 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Kouzmanoff: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K, 1 HBP
Blanco: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Hairston: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K

Phillies vs. Nationals: May 29-31

Matt Swartz — Fri, 29 May 2009 22:30:34 -0000

More photos » by Tom Mihalek - AP

The Phillies phight on without Brett Myers this weekend against the Nationals. (AP Photo/Tom Mihalek)

Browse more photos »

The Philadelphia Phillies (25-20) take on the ever-struggling Washington Nationals (13-33) again, who are coming off being swept by the Mets in New York. The Phillies have just fallen a half game out of first place, after a disappointing rubber match with the Florida Marlins in which Brett Myers left with an injury that looks likely to end his season and quite possibly his career with the Phillies. This series, the Phillies rotation goes on, but they will need to decide who starts in Myers' place against San Diego next week. For this series, the Phillies send out rookie J.A. Happ for just his second start of the season on Friday night, up against fellow rookie Ross Detwiler who has only started two games this season. He has performed fairly well in those two starts, though they were only against the Pirates and the Orioles. The lefty will have a tougher matchup with the Philadelphia lineup. While Detwiler is a lefty, he does not have significant splits in the minor leagues, and he probably won't have a particularly easy time with the Phillies left-handed bats. On Saturday, Phillies send ace Cole Hamels out on the mound where they hope he will continue his run of four consecutive quality starts and what could have been six consecutive quality starts if not for a couple of freak injuries that cut them short. Hamels comes off a solid performance in a no decision against the Yanekes in which he struggled with pitch count, but did strike out Alex Rodriguez three times. There's no one that dangerous in the Nats lineup, but they are an above average offensive club with a few weapons in the middle of the lineup. The Nationals will send out Shairon Martis, a young righthander who has good numbers thus far but his peripherals don't indicate that those numbers will stick. On Sunday, the Phillies will gave Jamie Moyer another shot to stop looking his age. Moyer has only one quality start in nine tries this year, and has yet to surrneder fewer than seven hits in a game. The Nationals send out John Lannan who managed not to injure any Phillies last time out.

This year the Phillies are 7-2 against the Nationals, which has certainly helped them stay near first place. The Phillies hope to continue that run against the Nationals who have fallen further and further as the year has gone on. The Nationals continue to have a solid offense, but their pitching has been completely disastrous. The Phillies have wreaked havoc on the Nats' staff, and have scored 65 runs in those nine games against them (7.2 RS/G).

MATCHUPS:

Friday, 7:05-- J.A. Happ (L) vs Ross Detwiler (L)
Saturday, 7:05-- Cole Hamels (L) vs Shairon Martis (R)
Sunday, 1:35-- Jamie Moyer (L) vs John Lannan (L)

After the jump, I preview the individual players with their stats and splits.

NATIONALS

LINEUP

(1) SS Cristian Guzman (S): .340/.352/.465

proj: .295/.335/.420
bb: 5%
k: 12%
gb: 55%
iff: 11%
ifh: 8%
babip: solid ground ball rate puts him around .315-.320. My system puts him at .314.
s/c/z: fair strike judgment but plus contact skill
r/l: poorer strike zone judgment as rhb but more power
h/a: .743/.645 career
p/o: more of a pull hitter against rhb, but some pull tendencies against lhb too
other: none

(2) 1B Nick Johnson (L): .337/.440/.464

proj: .270/.410/.470
bb: 17%
k: 21%
gb: 44%
iff: 9%
ifh: 3%
babip: doesn't tend to do well on groundballs in general, but does decently otherwise, about average. My system does not project him as he had less than 300 PA last year.
s/c/z: does not swing much, but especially good at laying off balls; contact rate about average though
r/l: no major split at all
h/a: no major split at all
p/o: spreads ball around pretty well but slight pull hitter
other: much better babip with runners on thus far; probably hooks ball in hole a lot

(3) 3B Ryan Zimmerman (R): .333/.400/.574

proj: .285/.350/.475
bb: 8.5%
k: 17.5%
gb: 44%
iff: 11%
ifh: 8%
babip: tends to hit around .315 on BIP since he hits a lot of groundballs in the whole. My system puts him at .314.
s/c/z: about average across the board
r/l: .758/.931; 2.6 k/bb vs rhp, 1.2 vs lhp; and slightly more power against lhp too
h/a: nothing abnormal
p/o: slight pull hitter but spreads ball around pretty well
other: none

(4) LF Adam Dunn (L): .283/.417/.608

proj: .245/.380/.490
bb: 17.5%
k: 31%
gb: 34%
iff: 11%
ifh: 4%
babip: somewhat low, around .290 career, mostly bc of low babip on groundballs due to the shift. My system puts him at .278.
s/c/z: good eye, laying off pitches out of the strike zone; poor contact skills but not as bad as you might expect; sees few strikes
r/l: .932/.833; biggest difference is 1.4 k/bb vs rhb and 2.0 k/bb vs lhb
h/a: nothing abnormal
p/o: definitepull hitter
other: nothing abnormal; power lefties tend to do better with men on, but he hasn't in his career

(5) RF Austin Kearns (R): .213/.341/.389

proj: .260/.350/.410
bb: 11%
k: 21%
gb: 46%
iff: 10%
ifh: 6.5%
babip: average all around. My system has him at .299.
s/c/z: very good eye with average contact skill
r/l: 2.2 k/bb vs rhp, 1.1 k/bb vs lhp; only .775/.827 split overall career though
h/a: no major split
p/o: spreads ball around pretty well but slight pull hitter
other: better against power pitchers

(6) CF Willie Harris (L): .261/.402/.406

proj: .255/.345/.390
bb: 10.5%
k: 19.5%
gb: 48%
iff: 10%
ifh: 7%
babip: average all around-- my system has him at .302.
s/c/z: does not swing much
r/l: better vs rhp, primarily due to k/bb difference (1.5 vs 3.2)
h/a: not much difference
p/o: pull hitter
other: none

(7) 2B Anderson Hernandez (S): .278/.363/.343

proj: .240/.290/.330
bb: 6%
k: 17%
gb: 46%
iff: 7%
ifh: 9%
babip: slightly below average due to weak hits and poor contact, but he's bound to be good on groundballs. My system does not project him since he had less than 300 PA last year.
s/c/z: average thus far
r/l: probably a little better as rhb against lhp
h/a: not enough info
p/o: so far he seems to be a bit of an opposite field hitter
other: none

(8) C Wil Nieves (R): .283/.328/.317

proj: .245/.290/.325
bb: 5.5%
k: 14%
gb: 53%
iff: 7%
ifh: 5%
babip: lack of power leads to it being below average since its low on flyballs; lack of speed leads to pretty low babip on groundballs too. My system does not project him.
s/c/z: poor strike zone judgment, but not terrible
r/l: seems typical but not enough info
h/a: not enough info
p/o: spreads ball around evenly
other: none

BENCH

OF Josh Willingham (R): .228/.355/.465

proj: .265/.355/.485
bb: 11%
k: 22%
gb: 39%
iff: 12%
ifh: 9%
babip: average all around-- my system has him at .305.
s/c/z: low swing rate in general, average contact skill
r/l: better k/bb and power numbers vs lhb but reverse babip split masks that
h/a: seemingly better on the road
p/o: definite pull hitter
other: better against groundball pitchers

IF Ronnie Belliard (R): .164/.222/.254

proj: .270/.330/.420
bb: 8%
k: 17%
gb: 46%
iff: 11%
ifh: 7%
babip: below average by a little due to lack of power according to most systems, but my system has him at .308.
s/c/z: average across the board
r/l: .727/.828
h/a: .773/.739
p/o: slight pull hitter
other: none

OF Justin Maxwell (R): .150/.320/.200

proj avg: .240/.320/.430
bb: 9%
k: 24%
gb: 43% in minors in 2008
iff: 17% in minors in 2008
ifh: n/a
babip: seems bad, but little info
s/c/z: not enough info
r/l: much, much better agianst lhp in minors
h/a: not enough info
p/o: not enough info
other: none

C Josh Bard (S): .179/.200/.256

proj: .265/.335/.390
bb: 10%
k: 15%
gb: 50%
iff: 6%
ifh: 4%
babip: about average overall; a little below average on groundballs since he doesn't get many infield hits and a bit high on flyballs since he doesn't pop out in the infield much
s/c/z: above average contact skill, average strike zone judgment
r/l: no major split
h/a: better k/bb at home (1.3 vs 1.8) and more power at home, but babip higher on road; probably still better at home despite babip causing reverse platoon split
p/o: spreads ball around as lhb but slight pull hitter as rhb
other: none

C Luke Montz (R): has not played yet in 2009

proj: .230/.305/.380
bb: 9%
k: 23%
gb: about 40% in minors
iff: about 22% career in minors
ifh: ?
babip: low in minors which makes sense given lack of speed, mediocre power, and high popup rate
s/c/z: good eye, not all that patient, slightly below average contact, thrown a lot of strikes
r/l: .722 vs .843 ops difference in minors
h/a: not enough info
p/o: not enough info
other: none

DISABLED LIST: CF Elijah Dukes (R): .277/.347/.473

proj: .265/.365/.465
bb: 14%
k: 23%
gb: 44%
iff: 12%
ifh: 5%
babip: has been low but seems to profile as about average according to most systems. My system actually puts him at about .316.
s/c/z: good eye but poor contact skill
r/l: more power against lhp but not much difference otherwisee
h/a: much better k/bb at home: 1.2 vs 2.0
p/o: definite pull hitter
other: none

DISABLED LIST: C Jesus Flores (R): .311/.382/.522

proj: .245/.305/.410
bb: 6.5%
k: 26%
gb: 42%
iff: 17%
ifh: 5%
babip: has been above average but will probably fall due to high popup rate. My system puts him at .278.
s/c/z: hacker but pithchers still challenge him
r/l: 5.1 k/bb vs rhp, 3.5 k/bb vs lhp; .633/.802 ops split but mostly due to very high babip vs lhp that probably won't persist.
h/a: struggles more at home so far in career but probably just noise
p/o: very distinct pull hitter; only rarely goes the other way at all
other: far more successful against finesse pitchers thus far with lots of trouble against power pitchers

ROTATION

FRIDAY STARTER: Ross Detwiler (L): 2.45 ERA, 3.3 BB/9, 8.2 K/9, 0.8 HR/9, 3.89 FIP, 40% GB

proj avg: 5.60 ERA, 4.4 BB/9, 5.8 K/9, 1.2 HR/9
gb: about 50% in minors
pitches: 77% fb, 14% ch, 9% cb
r/l: not much of a split in minors, and since he's a fastball/changeup/curveball pitcher, that makes sense
h/a: not enough info

Detwiler: has not played any Phillies

SATURDAY STARTER: Shairon Martis (R): 4.86 ERA, 3.5 BB/9, 4.2 K/9, 0.8 HR/9, 4.73 FIP, 40% GB

proj avg: 5.10 ERA, 4.2 BB/9, 6.8 K/9, 1.3 HR/9
gb: 37%
pitches: 60% fb, 20% ch, 10% sl, 9% cb
r/l: not enough info
h/a: not enough info

Martis vs. Phillies:

Howard: 2/5, 1 HR, 2 BB, 1 K
Ibanez: 4/6, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Rollins: 1/5, 0 BB, 1 K, 1 SF
Utley: 2/4, 2 BB, 0 K
Victorino: 2/6, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Werth: 0/5, 1 BB, 1 K
Dobbs: 1/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Feliz: 0/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Bruntlett: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Coste: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K

SUNDAY STARTER: John Lannan (L): 4.11 ERA, 3.5 BB/9, 4.3 K/9, 1.3 HR/9, 5.46 FIP, 54% GB

proj avg: 4.15 ERA, 3.6 BB/9, 5.6 K/9, 1.0 HR/9
gb: 54%
pitches: 60% fb, 16% sl, 12% cb, 11% ch, 1% ct
r/l: 1.2 k/bb vs rhb, 2.3 vs lhb; .719/.840 ops
h/a: slightly better on road but not much info

Lannan vs. Phillies:

Rollins: 6/18, 2 2B, 1 HR, 1 BB, 1 K
Utley: 8/16, 2 HR, 1 BB, 3 K, 1 HBP
Victorino: 6/17, 1 BB, 0 K, 1 HBP
Howard: 4/17, 1 2B, 1 HR, 0 BB, 7 K, 1 HBP
Werth: 3/13, 2 HR, 2 BB, 5 K
Feliz: 7/12, 1 HR, 1 BB, 0 K
Bruntlett: 1/4, 0 BB, 0 K
Ruiz: 2/8, 0 BB, 1 K, 1 SF
Ibanez: 3/4, 1 BB, 0 K
Coste: 1/2, 0 BB, 0 K

NOT FACING US THIS SERIES: Jordan Zimmerman (L): 6.07 ERA, 2.7 BB/9, 9.2 K/9, 1.4 HR/9, 4.21 FIP, 40% GB

proj avg: 4.90 ERA, 4.1 BB/9, 7.0 K/9, 1.2 HR/9
gb: 48% in minors so probably about average in majors perhaps (?)
pitches: ?
r/l: better against righties in minors
h/a: ?

Zimmerman vs Phillies:

Feliz: 1/3, 0 BB, 1 K
Howard: 1/2, 0 BB, 1 K, 1 HBP
Ibanez: 0/2, 1 BB, 0 K
Rollins: 2/3, 0 BB, 1 K
Utley: 1/1, 1 2B, 2 BB, 0 K
Victorino: 1/3, 1 2B, 0 BB, 1 K
Werth: 1/3, 0 BB, 1 K
Ruiz: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K

NOT FACING US THIS SERIES: Craig Stammen (R): 5.56 ERA, 2.4 BB/9, 4.0 K/9, 0.8 HR/9, 4.49 FIP, 60% GB

proj avg: 5.50 ERA, 3.7 BB/9, 5.5 K/9, 1.3 HR/9
gb: about 40% in minors
pitches: 75% fb, 13% ch, 12% cb
r/l: not much of a split in minors, which makes sense given he's a fastball/changeup/curveball pitcher
h/a: not enough info

Stammen: has not played any Phillies

DISABLED LIST: Scott Olsen (L): 7.24 ERA, 4.0 BB/9, 6.4 K/9, 1.8 HR/9, 5.60 FIP, 35% GB

proj avg: 4.75 ERA, 3.4 BB/9, 6.2 K/9, 1.3 HR/9
gb: 40%
pitches: 63% fb, 20% ch, 17% sl
r/l: 1.6 k/bb vs rhb, 2.8 k/bb vs lhb; .827/.686 ops
h/a: 2.0 vs 1.5 k/bb

Olsen vs. Phillies:

Rollins: 8/33, 2 3B, 1 HR, 3 BB, 3 K
Utley: 4/27, 1 2B, 2 HR, 3 BB, 8 K
Howard: 14/29, 3 2B, 2 HR, 2 BB, 6 K, 1 HBP
Victorino: 4/22, 1 2B, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K
Werth: 10/19, 2 2B, 3 HR, 1 BB, 3 K
Feliz: 4/16, 2 2B, 1 3B, 1 BB, 2 K
Coste: 3/12, 1 2B, 1 HR, 1 BB, 4 K
Bruntlett: 1/8, 1 BB, 4 K
Ibanez: 5/8, 2 HR, 1 BB, 1 K
Ruiz: 0/5, 2 BB (2 IBB), 1 K

BULLPEN

CL Joel Hanrahan (R): 5.64 ERA, 4.4 BB/9, 11.3 K/9, 1.2 HR/9, 4.15 FIP, 43% GB

proj avg: 4.10 ERA, 4.5 BB/9, 9.0 K/9, 1.0 HR/9
gb: 38%
pitches: 67% fb, 31% sl, 2% ch
r/l: typical
h/a: much better at home: 2.6 k/bb vs. 1.3; .680/.842 ops

Hanrahan vs Phillies:

Werth: 0/8, 4 BB, 4 K
Feliz: 1/10, 1 HR, 1 BB, 2 K
Howard: 0/8, 1 BB, 7 K
Rollins: 2/9, 0 BB, 2 K
Ruiz: 3/7, 1 2B, 1 HR, 1 BB, 0 K
Utley: 1/3, 1 BB, 2 K, 1 SF, 1 HBP
Coste: 0/4, 0 BB, 0 K
Victorino: 2/4, 0 BB, 0 K
Bruntlett: 1/3, 0 BB, 1 K
Dobbs: 1/2, 0 BB, 1 K
Ibanez: 1/3, 1 HR, 0 BB, 1 K
Stairs: 1/2, 1 2B, 0 BB, 1 K

Joe Beimel (L): 5.00 ERA, 3.0 BB/9, 5.0 K/9, 1.0 HR/9, 4.66 FIP, 38% GB

proj avg: 3.90 ERA, 3.6 BB/9, 5.2 K/9, 0.6 HR/9
gb: 49%
pitches: 85% fb (sinkers coded as fastballs), 7% sl, 5% cb, 4% ch
r/l: 0.9 vs 2.3 k/bb, platoon splits not even as deep as would be give strength of lhb faced vs rhb
h/a: 1.5 k/bb at home 1.1 k/bb on road, but ops split not different

Beimel vs Phillies:

Rollins: 3/11, 2 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Utley: 2/10, 1 2B, 0 BB, 3 K, 1 HBP
Howard: 1/7, 1 HR, 3 BB (1 IBB), 2 K
Feliz: 5/9, 1 HR, 0 BB, 1 K
Victorino: 2/6, 1 2B, 0 BB, 1 K
Stairs: 1/4, 1 2B, 1 BB, 1 K
Werth: 0/4, 0 BB, 1 K
Ibanez: 2/3, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Coste: 1/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Bruntlett: 1/2, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K

Julian Tavarez (R): 5.68 ERA, 6.6 BB/9, 8.5 K/9, 0.5 HR/9, 4.32 FIP, 54% GB

proj avg: 4.60 ERA, 3.8 BB/9, 6.7 K/9, 0.8 HR/9
gb: 55%
pitches: 53% fb, 25% sl, 15% ch, 8% sf
r/l: 2.2 k/bb vs rhb, 1.0 vs lhb; .734/.827 ops
h/a: 1.75 k/bb at home, 1.3 on road

Tavarez vs Phillies:

Rollins: 10/27, 4 2B, 1 BB, 0 K
Feliz: 1/11, 1 2B, 1 BB, 0 K
Victorino: 4/10, 1 2B, 1 3B, 1 BB, 3 K
Stairs: 1/7, 0 BB, 5 K
Utley: 2/4, 1 2B, 2 BB, 0 K
Werth: 1/4, 1 BB, 1 K, 1 HBP
Coste: 1/5, 0 BB, 1 K
Howard: 0/3, 1 BB, 1 K
Dobbs: 0/2, 0 BB, 1 K
Ibanez: 0/1, 1 BB, 1 K
Bruntlett: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K
Ruiz: 0/1, 1 BB, 0 K

Kip Wells (R): 6.35 ERA, 6.0 BB/9, 6.4 K/9, 0.4 HR/9, 4.31 FIP, 51% GB

proj avg: 5.10 ERA, 4.4 BB/9, 6.5 K/9, 1.0 HR/9
gb: 49%
pitches: 70% sl, 12% sl, 10% cb, 8% ch
r/l: .755/.807
h/a: .756/.802

Wells vs Phillies:

Stairs: 3/20, 1 2B, 1 HR, 3 BB, 2 K, 1 HBP
Rollins: 1/19, 1 2B, 1 BB, 6 K
Utley: 4/15, 3 BB, 1 K
Howard: 2/12, 1 2B, 1 BB, 3 K
Werth: 1/5, 1 3B, 4 BB, 0 K, 1 HBP
Ibanez: 3/8, 1 2B, 1 BB, 3 K
Dobbs: 1/4, 1 BB, 2 K
Feliz: 2/6, 2 2B, 1 BB, 1 K
Victorino: 0/3, 2 BB, 1 K, 1 Sac
Ruiz: 0/4, 2 BB, 3 K
Bruntlett: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K
Coste: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K

Ron Villone (L): 0.00 ERA, 3.9 BB/9, 2.3 K/9, 0.0 HR/9, 3.93 FIP

proj avg: 4.40 ERA, 5.1 BB/9, 7.7 K/9, 0.9 HR/9
gb: 39%
pitches: 68% fb, 26% sl, 6% ch
r/l: .781 vs .701 ops; 1.4 vs 1.7 k/bb
h/a: .781 vs .731 ops; 1.5 vs 1.4 k/bb

Villone vs Phillies:

Stairs: 1/7, 6 BB, 3 K
Rollins: 2/7, 3 BB, 1 K
Howard: 1/8, 0 BB, 4 K
Utley: 1/5, 2 BB, 2 K, 1 HBP
Ibanez: 2/6, 0 BB, 1 K
Ruiz: 1/3, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Feliz: 1/1, 1 2B, 1 BB, 0 K
Victorino: 1/2, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Bruntlett: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Coste: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Dobbs: 1 BB

Jesus Colome (R): 11.25 ERA, 4.5 BB/9, 9.0 K/9, 0.0 HR/9, 2.66 FIP, 13% GB

proj avg: 4.50 ERA, 4.5 BB/9, 6.6 K/9, 0.9 HR/9
gb: 34%
pitches: 71% fb, 27% sl, 1% ch
r/l: 2.0 vs 0.95 k/bb, .698 vs .817 ops
h/a: .725 vs .777 ops; 1.6 vs 1.3 k/bb

Colome vs Phillies:

Victorino: 3/9, 1 BB, 0 K, 1 Sac
Werth: 1/8, 1 3B, 3 BB, 6 K
Rollins: 4/7, 2 HR, 3 BB, 0 K
Feliz: 3/7, 1 2B, 0 BB, 1 K
Ibanez: 1/5, 1 HR, 1 BB (IBB), 1 K, 1 SF
Coste: 1/5, 1 BB, 1 K
Howard: 0/4, 2 BB (1 IBB), 0 K
Utley: 3/3, 1 2B, 2 BB (1 IBB), 0 K, 1 HBP
Ruiz: 0/4, 1 BB, 0 K
Bruntlett: 1/4, 0 BB, 2 K
Stairs: 0/1, 2 BB, 1 K
Dobbs: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K

Jason Bergmann (R): 5.40 ERA, 5.4 BB/9, 4.3 K/9, 1.1 HR/9, 5.92 FIP, 33% GB

proj avg: 4.65 ERA, 3.2 BB/9, 6.8 K/9, 1.3 HR/9
gb: 31%
pitches: 55% fb, 21% cb, 15% sl, 6% ch
r/l: .734/.870
h/a: .764/.840

Bergmann vs Phillies:

Victorino: 5/26, 2 2B, 1 3B, 2 BB, 3 K, 1 HBP
Rollins: 5/26, 1 2B, 1 3B, 1 HR, 2 BB (1 IBB), 2 K
Utley: 4/23, 2 2B, 1 3B, 1 BB, 3 K, 1 SF
Howard: 4/17, 1 HR, 7 BB (2 IBB), 7 K
Ruiz: 3/11, 2 2B, 0 BB, 3 K
Coste: 4/8, 1 2B, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K
Dobbs: 1/7, 0 BB, 1 K, 1 SF
Feliz: 2/6, 0 BB, 1 K
Werth: 0/4, 0 BB, 1 K

DEMOTED TO AAA: Garrett Mock (R): 6.92 ERA, 5.5 BB/9, 4.2 K/9, 0.0 HR/9, 4.32 FIP, 54% GB

proj avg: 4.50 ERA, 3.7 BB/9, 7.4 K/9, 1.1 HR/9
gb: 47%
pitches: 59% fb, 20% cb, 11% ch, 8% sl, 2% ct
r/l: .689/.704
h/a: .730/.643

Mock vs Phillies:

Victorino: 2/5, 0 BB, 0 K, 1 SF
Feliz: 2/5, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Rollins: 2/4, 1 2B, 1 BB, 0 K
Ruiz: 1/5, 0 BB, 0 K
Bruntlett: 0/3, 0 BB, 2 K
Coste: 1/2, 1 2B, 1 BB, 0 K
Werth: 0/3, 0 BB, 1 K
Dobbs: 0/2, 0 BB, 2 K
Ibanez: 1/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Howard: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Stairs: 1 BB
Utley: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K

PHILLIES

LINE UP

1) SS Jimmy Rollins (S): .223/.271/.332

projection average (proj): .285/.350/.460
projected BB/PA (bb): 8%
projected K/AB (k): 11%
career gb% (gb): 42%
career infield flies/flyball (iff): 10%
career infield hits/groundball (ifh): 5%
batting average on balls in play tendencies (babip): about average overall, though a little bit high popup rate so slightly below average. my system has him at about .308.
swing/contact/zone facts (s/c/z): good eye, pretty selective, but very high contact rate so low walk rate
righty/lefty (r/l): 1.7 vs 1.3 k/bb, mostly because of higher k-rate as lhb. otherwise similar on contact
home/away (h/a): 1.5 vs 1.7 k/bb; .805 vs .739 ops
pull/opposite (p/o): definite pull hitter
anything else (other): stole 47 bases in 50 attempts last year.

2) CF Shane Victorino (S): .280/.327/.440

proj: .285/.345/.430
bb: 7.5%
k: 13%
gb: 46%
iff: 15%
ifh: 8%
babip: slightly above average due to high babip on groundballs-- partly because infield plays in for him and he spreads the ball around well; not that high due to high infield fly rate. my system sees him at .303.
s/c/z: pretety bad eye but high contact rate
r/l: much more power righthanded (1.6% to 3.8% HR rate), but much better k/bb as lefty: 1.65 vs 1.88; higher babip lefty also (.316 vs .286)
h/a: far fewer walks on road but nearly exactly the same strikeout rate, same power, same babip
p/o: pull hitter both ways
other: stole 36 of 47 bases last year

3) 2B Chase Utley (L): .289/.425/.550

proj: .295/.380/.525
bb: 9.5%
k: 18%
gb: 37%
iff: 10%
ifh: 6%
babip: distinctly above average historically and for projections too; seemingly strong power leads to high line drive babip rate and reasonably high groundball babip especially for pull hitting lefty; high on flyballs despite high infield fly rate since he hits deep flyballs. my system has him at about .308, but he beats projection systems consistently.
s/c/z: pretty good eye, somewhat selective, somewhat high contact rate
r/l: not significant-- only 1.7 vs 2.0 k/bb; .919 vs .865 ops
h/a: similar k/bb home & away; better hr at home-- probably park factors; higher babip at home too
p/o: pull hitter
other: much better against power pitchers relative to other hitters

4) 1B Ryan Howard (L): .263/.338/.542

proj: .275/.375/580
bb: 14%
k: 33%
gb: 40%
iff: 2%
ifh: 4%
babip: low on groundballs over time as he pulls the vast majority of them; very very high on flyballs because he almost never pops out in the infield at all and many of his flyballs are very deep. also since so few of his flyballs stay in the park (only 2/3 or so), a higher percentage of his balls in play are line drives-- which he does well on like many power hitters-- his low contact rate means he sometimes make poor contact though. probably above average overall
s/c/z: swings a lot especially for someone who doesn't see many strikes. however, he is pretty good at distinguishing balls from strikes despite the consensus on him. he makes terrible contact overall though. my system sees him at .310.
r/l: 1.064 vs .786 ops: say it with me "that means he's good against righties, not bad against lefties!" in fact, he's the best hitter against righties in baseball right now probably. his k/bb vs lhp is 3.7 vs 1.6 vs rhp. he has a lot of power against lefties however, but a lower babip. i don't have split data on pull% vs lhp/rhp but observationally i'm pretty sure that's the difference in his babip: .338 vs .309.
h/a: much higher babip on road. very similar hr numbers. 2.0 vs 3.2 k/bb.
p/o: pull hitter, especially on groundballs-- hits more homeruns the opposite way though
other: struggles mightily against power pitchers and groundball pitchers, dominate flyball pitchers (since he almost never pops out, and has 10.3% hr rate) and smashes finesse pitchers (11.8% hr rate); he also does much better on babip with runners on base as defenders can't shift against him-- especially with runners in scoring position

5) RF Jayson Werth (R): .255/.346/.472

proj: .270/.360/.460
bb: 12.5%
k: 29%
gb: 38%
iff: 8%
ifh: 8%
babip: high on groundballs due to high infield hit rate, high on line drives due to power, and hits pretty deep flyballs too; has been historically probably higher than it should be since he's faced more lhp than normal rhb do; overall still seems to be very above average. my system has him at .329.
s/c/z: very selective and pretty good eye; somewhat low contact rate
r/l: .762 vs .919 ops; 2.4 vs 2.0 k/bb; hr rate of 6.7% vs 2.9%
h/a: not much of a split at all
p/o: spreads ball around well for power hitter, but still a pull hitter
other: stole 20 bases in 21 attempts last year

6) LF Raul Ibanez (L): .339/.402/.707

proj: .285/.350/.480
bb: 9%
k: 17%
gb: 42%
iff: 11%
ifh: 5%
babip: above average, probably because he spreads the ball around pretty well for a power hitter; much better babip with men on-- probably hooks ball in hole well or maybe he was shifted against more so beforehand. my system sees him right at .300.
s/c/z: definitely a good eye though it's getting worse, slightly above average contact
r/l: .850 vs .733; 1.5 vs 2.8 k/bb
h/a: better k/bb (1.6 vs 1.9) but worse power probably park factors, and probably likely to be better at home
p/o: slight pull hitter but not much for a power hitter
other: none

7) 3B Pedro Feliz (R): .307/.373/.433

proj: .250/.300/.420
bb: 6%
k: 15.5%
gb: 44%
iff: 15%
ifh: 5%
babip: very low-- pops up a lot, hits groundballs predictably to left side and is slow so they can play shaded over and deep; not all that much power so not terrific on line drives either, makes a lot of weak contact as he isn't good at making contact so he chops a lot of balls. my system sees him at .271.
s/c/z: high swing rate and not terribly good at distinguishing balls from strikes. swung significantly less in 2008, but it was as much of a decrease in balls as strikes, makes average contact
r/l: 3.3 vs 2.3 k/bb; .708 vs .755 ops, more babip and a little more power agaisnt lefties
h/a: much higher k rate on road, similar bb rate; more power on road, higher babip at home. likely not much difference (.725 vs .716 overall ops)
p/o: definite pull hitter
other: defensive numbers dipped last year, had offseason surgery for back, perhaps these are related

8) Carlos Ruiz (R): .280/.386/.453

proj: .255/.335/.390
bb: 10%
k: 14%
gb: 50% (but rose in 2008 to 54% from 46%)
iff: 9.5%
ifh: 4%
babip: was extraordinarily low in 2008, but that seems to be rather flukey. his high groundball rate and solid contact rate and pitch selection indicate he should be a good babip guy, but he does very poorly on groundball as he chops the ball a lot. my system sees him at .288.
s/c/z: very good eye and excellent contact skill, extremely patient
r/l: bizarre reverse split despite 0.5 k/bb vs lhp and 1.2 vs rhp; impossibly low .204 babip against lhp, probably flukey and probably much better vs lhp in reality
h/a: similar k/bb, worse babip but higher power at home (park factors)
p/o: slight pull hitter
other: better against power pitchers

BENCH

C Chris Coste (R): .230/.319/.393

proj: .265/.315/.405
bb: 5.5%
k: 17.5%
gb: 40%
iff: 10%
ifh: 6%
babip: slightly below average, seemingly due to poor eye and swinging and hitting bad pitches. my system sees him at .294.
s/c/z: high swing rate, pretty poor eye, average contact
r/l: .747 vs .855; same k/bb rate, much better babip against lhp, similar power but slightly more vs lhp
h/a: .886 vs .679; 5.4% vs 1.5% hr rate
p/o: pull hitter
other: struggles with power pitchers somewhat

IF/OF Eric Bruntlett (R): .118/.179/.235

proj: .240/.325/.335
bb: 10%
k: 18%
gb: 41%
iff: 14%
ifh: 5%
babip: high popup rate leads to low babip, but not that low; also doesn't do all that well on line drives due to lack of power
s/c/z: somewhat above average eye and doesn't swing much; makes very good contact, sees a lot of strikes
r/l: .592 vs .764 ops; 2.5 vs 1.2 k/bb; 5.7% vs 8.8% xbh/ab-- he's actually average if not above average against lhp; he just is terrible against rhb. he should be used as a counterswitch to loogy use against lefty pinch hitters
h/a: more power at home and more walks at home; similar strikeout rate and babip
p/o: opposite field hitter
other: none

IF Greg Dobbs (L): .135/.238/.216

proj: .285/.335/.445
bb: 7%
k: 17%
gb: 36%
iff: 13.5%
ifh: 3%
babip: has been high but probably should not be projected as high-- success derives from impossibly high line drive babip which doesn't typically happen for non-extreme power hitters. given his popup rate, he probably isn't a .320 babip guy and there isn't a .285 hitter
s/c/z: poor eye but very high swing rate; average contact rate
r/l: .761 vs .579 ops despite impossible .481 babip against lhp. in reality, he strikes out in 48% of at-bats against lhp. he should never see them. absolutely no power against lefties also.
h/a: virtually no split at all
p/o: pull hitter
other: much better against finesse pitchers

OF Matt Stairs (L): .300/.488/.633

proj: .255/.340/.440
bb: 11%
k: 22%
gb: 42%
iff: 11.5%
ifh: 5%
babip: average all around. my system sees him at .295.
s/c/z: very good eye and slightly below average contact
r/l: .862 vs .748; much more power against rhp; 1.4 vs 2.1 k/bb
h/a: not much of a split at all
p/o: slight pull hitter but not much for a power hitter
other: use stairs in case of emergency

OF John Mayberry Jr. (R): .250/.250/.750

proj: .235/.290/.415
bb: 6.5%
k: 27%
iff: around 15-20% in minors
ifh: ?
babip: hits ball hard but pops up a lot; probably a bit average but tough to know; projected below average
s/c/z: not enough info
r/l: batter against lefties, particularly at making contact, in minors
h/a: not enough info
p/o: not enough info
other: none

ROTATION

FRIDAY STARTER: J.A. Happ (L): 2.60 ERA, 2.9 BB/9, 6.8 K/9, 0.65 HR/9, 3.67 FIP, 38% GB

proj avg: 4.40 ERA, 3.8 BB/9, 7.7 K/9, 1.2 HR/9
gb: 29% in majors thus far; 42% in AAA in 2008
pitches: 64% fb, 18% ch, 14% sl, 2% ct, 2% cb
r/l: 1.7 vs 3.0 k/bb in majors thus far; 2.7 vs 3.5 k/bb in AAA in 2008
h/a: not enough info

Happ vs Nationals:

Belliard: 1/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Willingham: 0/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Harris: 1/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Hernandez: 0/1, 1 BB, 0 K
Johnson: 0/2, 0 BB, 2 K
Kearns: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K, 1 HBP
Zimmerman: 0/2, 0 BB, 1 K
Bard: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Dunn: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K
Guzman: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Nieves: 1 BB

SATURDAY STARTER: Cole Hamels (L): 4.68 ERA, 1.9 BB/9, 9.1 K/9, 1.9 HR/9, 4.53 FIP, 38% GB

proj avg: 3.45 ERA, 2.3 BB/9, 8.4 K/9, 1.1 HR/9
gb: 40%
pitches: 55% fb, 32% ch, 14% cb
r/l: .680 vs .748, but same 3.6 k/bb both ways; slightly more power vs lhb-- this is probably selection bias as managers withhold all but the best lefties against him (explaining 20% of hitters faced are lefties only)
h/a: 3.85 vs 3.4 k/bb; .676 vs .709 ops-- less of a difference due to higher HR rate at home
other: much higher k-rate at night: 25% vs 20%, which is statistically significant. ERA difference (4.71 vs 3.01 exaggerated by babip difference), as HR rate and XBH rate very similar. most likely he strikes out more at night.

Hamels vs Nationals:

Zimmerman: 11/39, 2 2B, 2 HR, 1 BB, 8 K
Kearns: 6/23, 2 2B, 5 BB (1 IBB), 3 K
Belliard: 6/25, 1 2B, 1 HR, 1 BB, 8 K
Willingham: 3/13, 2 2B, 1 HR, 2 BB, 7 K
Johnson: 3/13, 3 2B, 1 BB, 4 K
Dunn: 1/9, 1 2B, 2 BB, 5 K
Guzman: 3/8, 0 BB, 0 K
Harris: 0/6, 1 BB, 4 K
Hernandez: 1/4, 0 BB, 0 K
Bard: 0/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Nieves: 1/2, 0 BB, 0 K

SUNDAY STARTER: Jamie Moyer (L): 7.42 ERA, 3.0 BB/9, 4.9 K/9, 2.5 HR/9, 6.90 FIP, 36% GB

proj avg: 4.80 ERA, 2.8 BB/9, 5.5 K/9, 1.2 HR/9
gb: 39%
pitches: 41% fb, 30% ct, 24% ch, 6% cb
r/l: virtually no split but that seems to be selection as he sees 24% lefties only compared with 32% league average for lhp
h/a: 2.3 vs 1.9 k/bb; not much difference on contact; slightly better babip at home but not more so than the average starter gets

Moyer vs Nationals:

Guzman: 14/43, 4 2B, 1 HR, 1 BB, 3 K, 1 Sac, 1 SF, 1 HBP
Belliard: 8/30, 5 2B, 1 HR, 2 BB, 9 K, 1 Sac
Zimmerman: 4/24, 1 2B, 4 BB, 3 K
Willingham: 2/23, 1 2B, 1 3B, 0 BB, 4 K, 1 HBP
Johnson: 1/15, 4 BB, 3 K, 1 HBP
Bard: 6/16, 2 2B, 1 HR, 1 BB, 0 K
Harris: 4/15, 1 2B, 1 HR, 1 BB, 4 K, 1 Sac
Kearns: 5/14, 2 2B, 1 3B, 3 BB, 1 K
Hernandez: 5/10, 1 2B, 0 BB, 2 K
Dunn: 1/4, 1 2B, 2 BB, 1 K
Nieves: 0/3, 0 BB, 1 K

NOT STARTING THIS SERIES: Joe Blanton (R): 6.14 ERA, 3.3 BB/9, 8.4 K/9, 1.6 HR/9, 4.80 FIP, 40% GB

proj avg: 4.25 ERA, 2.5 BB/9, 5.8 K/9, 0.9 HR/9
gb: 45%
pitches: 56% fb, 16% ch, 15% sl, 12% cb
r/l: 2.3 vs 1.8 k/bb; .750 vs .719 ops
h/a: 2.2 vs 2.0 k/bb; .698 vs .776 ops; much worse babip away (.313 vs .282), more power surrendered on road
other: extraordinarily good against leadoff hitters, especially the first hitter of games

Blanton vs Nationals:

Zimmerman: 7/14, 2 2B, 1 3B, 2 HR, 1 BB, 2 K
Dunn: 3/9, 1 HR, 3 BB (1 IBB), 3 K
Guzman: 3/12, 0 BB, 4 K
Johnson: 5/10, 1 2B, 2 BB, 2 K
Kearns: 2/8, 1 2B, 3 BB, 1 K
Belliard: 3/8, 1 2B, 1 BB, 0 K
Hernandez: 2/8, 1 2B, 1 BB, 1 K
Nieves: 2/7, 0 BB, 0 K
Harris: 2/6, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K
Willingham: 1/4, 0 BB, 1 K

DISABLED LIST: Brett Myers (R): 4.66 ERA, 2.8 BB/9, 6.5 K/9, 2.4 HR/9, 6.32 FIP, 47% GB

proj avg: 4.15 ERA, 3.1 BB/9, 8.0 K/9, 1.3 HR/9
gb: 47%
pitches: 48% fb, 23% cb, 18% sl, 9% ch, 1% ct, 0.2% sf
r/l: .788 vs .747 ops despite 3.1 vs 1.95 k/bb; main issue is much higher HR rate vs rhb, slightly higher babip vs them as well; does not seem to be selection bias
h/a: .738 vs .800 ops; 2.7 vs 2.15 k/bb; slightly higher HR rate at home, but that is probably park factors as he surrenders far more doubles on road
other: HR rate is bizarre-- very few pitchers have the HR/Flyball rate he does. My personal suspicion is that statistics that don't exhibit much persistence despite what common sense suggests only do not exhibit persistence specifically because players make adjustments. If you throw fastball after fastball on the outside corner on every 1-2 count, the hitters will respond by hitting singles to the opposite field over and over again and your BABIP will go up. However, pitchers learn to mix up their pitches and BABIP ends up lacking persistence due to the constant game theoretical reaction that pitchers and hitters take. For Myers, his bizarre refusal to use his curveball early in the game leaves him especially vulernable to RHB who know it isn't coming. A little game theoretical mixed strategy would probably allow him to finally live up to his peripherals which suggest a low HR rate and borderline ace stuff.

Myers vs Nationals:

zimmerman: 13/35, 5 2B, 1 3B, 2 HR, 5 BB, 5 K, 1 SF
Johnson: 5/26, 3 2B, 1 HR, 5 BB, 9 K, 1 HBP
Kearns: 7/25, 2 2B, 2 BB, 4 K, 1 SF, 2 HBP
Guzman: 9/28, 0 BB, 4 K
Dunn: 3/21, 1 2B, 2 HR, 6 BB, 8 K
Willingham: 7/19, 1 2B, 1 3B, 2 HR, 1 BB, 5 K, 1 HBP
Belliard: 4/18, 0 BB, 3 K, 1 HBP
Harris: 0/14, 5 BB, 5 K
Hernandez: 5/9, 1 2B, 0 BB, 1 K
Bard: 0/3, 0 BB, 1 K

BULLPEN

CL Brad Lidge (R): 8.85 ERA, 5.75 BB/9, 9.7 K/9, 2.7 HR/9, 6.90 FIP, 37% GB

proj avg: 3.50 ERA, 4.1 BB?9, 11.0 K/9, 0.8 HR/9
gb: 41% (though this went up to 46% with increased slider use in 2008)
pitches: 56% sl, 43% fb, 0.4% ch in 2008 (historically 54% fb, 42% sl)
r/l: 3.6 vs 2.8 k/bb; .601 vs .686 ops (tough to tell if that tendency became more or less extreme in 2008 due to limited sample size)
h/a: 3.6 vs 2.9 k/bb; .666 vs .614 ops though due to higher babip away
other: HR/Flyball plummeted in 2008-- probably unsustainably low and his ERA should rise; still rumors of him tipping pitches explain the HR/Flyball spike in 2006 & 2007

Lidge vs Nationals:

Dunn: 4/18, 1 2B, 1 HR, 4 BB (1 IBB), 9 K, 1 SF, 1 HBP
Kearns: 3/9, 1 HR, 1 BB, 4 K, 1 HBP
Belliard: 0/6, 0 BB, 0 K
Harris: 2/6, 1 2B, 0 BB, 3 K
Willingham: 0/4, 1 BB, 0 K
Zimmerman: 2/5, 1 HR, 0 BB, 1 K
Bard: 1/3, 1 2B, 1 BB, 0 K
Johnson: 2/3, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Guzman: 2/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Hernandez: 1/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Nieves: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K

Ryan Madson (R): 2.82 ERA, 2.4 BB/9, 9.7 K/9, 0.0 HR/9, 1.82 FIP, 41% GB

proj avg: 3.80 ERA, 2.9 BB/9, 7.2 K/9, 0.8 HR/9
gb: 48%
pitches: 58% fb, 24% ch, 15% ct, 4% cb
r/l: 3.65 vs 1.8 k/bb; .714 vs .786 ops
h/a: no major split at all

Madson vs Nationals:

Willingham: 6/17, 2 2B, 1 HR, 1 BB, 4 K
Zimmerman: 7/18, 3 2B, 1 BB, 1 K
Kearns: 5/16, 2 2B, 1 HR, 1 BB, 3 K
Johnson: 3/6, 1 HR, 2 BB (1 IBB), 0 K, 1 SF, 1 HBP
Belliard: 2/6, 1 BB, 0 K, 1 Sac
Guzman: 6/8, 2 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Dunn: 3/5, 1 HR, 1 BB (1 IBB), 1 K
Harris: 2/4, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Hernandez: 2/4, 0 BB, 0 K
Bard: 0/2, 0 BB, 1 K
Nieves: 0/2, 0 BB, 2 K

Scott Eyre (L): 3.48 ERA, 7.0 BB/9, 6.1 K/9, 1.7 HR/9, 6.94 FIP, 40% GB

proj avg: 4.20 ERA, 4.1 BB/9, 8.8 K/9, 0.9 HR/9
gb: 41%
pitches: 59% fb, 35% sl, 6% ch, 0.2% cb
r/l: 1.5 vs 1.9 k/bb; .815 vs .720 ops
h/a: not much of a split

Eyre vs Nationals:

Dunn: 5/20, 3 HR, 2 BB, 10 K, 1 SF
Johnson: 2/14, 1 HR, 2 BB, 6 K
Guzman: 1/8, 2 BB, 1 K
Kearns: 2/4, 1 BB (IBB), 0 K
Harris: 1/2, 1 BB, 0 K, 1 Sac
Zimmerman: 0/3, 1 BB, 0 K
Hernandez: 0/1, 1 BB, 1 K
Willingham: 0/2, 0 BB, 2 K
Belliard: 0/1 , 0 BB, 0 K

Jack Taschner (L): 3.92 ERA, 6.5 BB/9, 4.8 K/9, 0.9 HR/9, 5.82 FIP, 34% GB

proj avg: 4.50 ERA, 4.1 BB/9, 8.0 K/9, 1.0 HR/9
gb: 35%
pitches: 57% fb, 30% sl, 13% ch
r/l: 1.45 vs 2.2 k/bb; .754 vs .747-- large selection bias where he faces only very good lefties and not very good righties
h/a: .698 vs .797 ops; 2.1 vs 1.5 k/bb

Taschner vs Nationals:

Dunn: 1/9, 2 BB, 4 K
Harris: 0/4, 0 BB, 2 K, 1 SF, 1 HBP
Johnson: 1/4, 2 BB, 0 K
Zimmerman: 1/4, 2 BB (1 IBB), 1 K
Guzman: 0/4, 1 BB, 1 K
Hernandez: 4/4, 2 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Kearns: 0/2, 1 BB, 0 K
Willingham: 0/2, 1 BB, 1 K
Bard: 1/2, 1 2B, 0 BB, 1 K
Nieves: 0/1, 1 BB, 0 K

Chad Durbin (R): 4.62 ERA, 5.3 BB/9, 7.8 K/9, 1.1 HR/9, 5.22 FIP, 34% GB

proj avg: 4.10 ERA, 3.5 BB/9, 6.5 K/9, 1.0 HR/9
gb: 41%
pitches: 47% fb, 38% sl, 8% ch, 7% cb, 1% ct
r/l: virtually no split
h/a: somewhat of a reverse split but probably just noise

Durbin vs Nationals:

Guzman: 6/22, 1 3B, 1 BB, 2 K, 1 SF, 1 HBP
Zimmerman: 1/9, 1 HR, 1 BB, 4 K, 1 SF
Belliard: 2/8, 1 BB, 1 K
Kearns: 1/6, 1 BB, 0 K
Willingham: 2/4, 1 2B, 1 HR, 1 BB, 1 K, 2 HBP
Harris: 2/6, 0 BB, 0 K
Johnson: 1/5, 0 BB, 0 K, 1 HBP
Dunn: 2/3, 1 2B, 1 HR, 1 BB, 1 K
Hernandez: 0/2, 1 BB, 0 K
Nieves: 0/2, 0 BB, 1 K
Bard: 1 BB

Clay Condrey (R): 2.00 ERA, 3.0 B/9, 6.0 K/9, 1.0 HR/9, 4.27 FIP, 53% GB

proj avg: 4.50 ERA, 2.8 BB/9, 4.9 K/9, 0.8 HR/9
gb: 50%
pitches: 59% fb, 17% ct, 15% sl, 9% ch
r/l: 2.1 vs 1.3 k/bb; .761 vs .842 ops
h/a: .703 vs .898 ops; 2.2 vs 1.3 k/bb

Condrey vs Nationals:

Zimmerman: 2/15, 0 BB, 2 K
Belliard: 3/10, 1 3B, 2 BB (1 IBB), 1 K
Dunn: 4/6, 2 HR, 1 BB (IBB), 1 K
Kearns: 1/5, 1 BB, 1 K
Willingham: 1/6, 1 BB (IBB), 1 K
Harris: 1/6, 0 BB, 1 K
Guzman: 2/5, 0 BB, 0 K
Hernandez: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Johnson: 1/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Nieves: 0/2, 0 BB, 1 K

Chan Ho Park (R): 6.57 ERA, 4.7 BB/9, 6.3 K/9, 1.2 HR/9, 5.25 FIP, 43% GB

proj avg: 4.50 ERA, 3.5 BB/9, 7.3 K/9, 1.2 HR/9
gb: 45%
pitches: 51% FB, 29% SL, 12% cb, 5% ch, 4% ct
r/l: .666 vs .820 ops; 2.6 vs 1.3 k/bb; .280 vs .301 babip; 2.6% vs 3.6% HR rate-- much better against righties
h/a: 2.0 vs 1.7 k/bb; .708 vs .780 ops

Park vs Nationals:

Belliard: 3/16, 0 BB, 5 K
Guzman: 3/13, 2 BB, 1 K
Harris: 2/6, 0 BB, 0 K, 1 Sac
Dunn: 1/2, 1 2B, 4 BB (1 IBB), 1 K
Johnson: 1/2, 3 BB, 0 K
Willingham: 2/4, 1 2B, 1 BB, 1 K
Kearns: 0/1, 2 BB, 1 K
Zimmerman: 1/2, 1 HR, 1 BB, 1 K
Bard: 1/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Hernandez: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Nieves: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K

SUSPENDED: J.C. Romero (L)

proj avg: 4.00 ERA, 5.5 BB?9, 7.5 K/9, 0.7 HR/9
gb: 55%
pitches: 58% fb, 25% sl, 17% ch, 0.1% cb
r/l: 1.2 vs 2.2 k/bb; .814 vs. 591 ops
h/a: 1.6 vs 1.3 k/bb; .697 vs .768 ops

Romero vs Nationals:

Belliard: 3/8, 1 2B, 1 BB (IBB), 1 K
Harris: 0/8, 0 BB, 5 K
Johnson: 0/2, 1 BB, 0 K, 1 HBP
Cintron: 0/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Guzman: 2/3, 1 2B, 0 BB, 1 K
Dunn: 2 BB
Flores: 0/1, 1 BB, 0 K
Kearns: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Nieves: 0/2, 0 BB, 1 K
Zimmerman: 0/2, 0 BB, 1 K
Willingham: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K

Phillies vs Marlins: May 25-27

Matt Swartz — Mon, 25 May 2009 22:02:06 -0000

More photos » by Kathy Willens - AP

Chooch wants Marlin! (AP Photo/Kathy Willens)

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It was a month ago that I wrote that the Marlins, then 11-4, were a fluke and due for a regression. They were in first place and the Phillies were a measly 6-8. The Phillies swept the Marlins and are now 24-18, in first place themselves, and the Marlins have barely won any games at all since then and sit in fourth place at 20-25. This article will not have quite the detail of that article, as I'm in the Baseball Prospectus Idol competition and need to start preparing for next week's submission (don't forget to vote!), but I'll link to that old article here. A number of the players have changed, but I think I have the current rosters right. I've also updated the season stats.

Monday will pit Jamie Moyer against Chris Volstad. Volstad has been solid this year, with an ERA of 3.64. He has had significant BABIP luck (.244) but also been unlucky with homeruns (18% HR/Flyball), so overall he probably should be in the low 4's. That will be the toughest game of the series given Moyer's recent struggles. On Tuesday, the Phillies send Joe Blanton to the mound against Andrew Miller. Miller has been wild this year walking over 5 per 9, without striking out many more than 6 per 9. He's been lucky on homeruns per flyball, and will regress...hopefully against us! On Wednesday, the Phils sent Brett Myers out against Hayden Penn. Hayden Penn has only started one game this year (a disastrous start against the Diamondbacks five days ago), but with Nolasco sent to AAA and Anibal Sanchez on the disabled list, Penn will get another shot.

MATCH-UPS:
Monday, 7:05-- Jamie Moyer (L) vs Chris Volstad (R)
Tuesday, 7:05-- Joe Blanton (R) vs Andrew Miller (L)
Wednesday, 7:05-- Brett Myers (R) vs Hayden Penn (R)

See below the jump for detailed player statistics and splits, as well as updated batter/pitcher matchups.

MARLINS

LINE UP

1) 3B Emilio Bonifacio (S): .258/.296/.311

projection average (proj): .260/.315/.340
projected BB/PA (bb): 6.5%
projected K/AB (k): 21%
career gb% (gb): 56%
career infield flies/flyball (iff): 5%
career infield hits/groundball (ifh): 14%
batting average on balls in play tendencies (babip): He gets a lot of infield hits, so the infield has to play in, so his groundballs and line drives find their way through more. He also avoids infield popups. So he should be able to hit around .330 on balls in play.
swing/contact/zone facts (s/c/z): about average all around
righty/lefty (r/l): thus far he has 16 K's and 1 BB against LHP as RHB.
home/away (h/a): thus far very poor on the road: 5.0 k/bb instead of 2.0.
pull/opposite (p/o): spreads ball around very well from both sides
anything else (other): none

2) LF Jeremy Hermida (L): .271/.383/.387

proj: .270/.355/.445
bb: 11%
k: 25%
gb: 45%
iff: 9%
ifh: 6%
babip: projected pretty high but doesn't seem to profile as such at all
s/c/z: poor eye but average contact
r/l: .793 vs .741; 2.2 vs 3.0 k/bb
h/a: .729/.828: better on road
p/o: definite pull hitter
other: none

3) SS Hanley Ramirez (R):

proj: .310/.385/.530
bb: 11%
k: 18%
gb: 43%
iff: 11%
ifh: 10%
babip: excellent babip on groundballs with speed, excellent babip on line drives since he has power and hits deep liners
s/c/z: good eye and above average contact
r/l: .886/.975; 1.9 vs 1.3 k/bb
h/a: .924/.890
p/o: slight pull hitter
other: better against groundballers and relatively weaker against power pitchers than others

4) 1B Jorge Cantu (R): .276/.335/.487

proj: .275/.325/.455
bb: 6.5%
k: 19%
gb: 39%
iff: 9%
ifh: 5%
babip: average overall
s/c/z: hacks a lot, makes average contact
r/l: not much of a split
h/a: much better at home, especially in terms of power and babip
p/o: definite pull hitter
other: none

5) C John Baker (L): .284/.371/.509

proj: .265/.335/.390
bb: 10%
k: 23%
gb: 50%
iff: 8%
ifh: 4%
babip: projected to be pretty high (.320ish) but he doesn't seem to profile as a high babip guy to me
s/c/z: swings rarely and makes good contact, okay eye
r/l: 1.3 vs 2.5 k/bb, thus far has made weak contact vs lhp
h/a: .908/.763
p/o: pull hitter
other: none

6) 2B Dan Uggla (R): .205/.328/.424

proj: .260/.340/.475
bb: 10%
k: 26%
gb: 37%
iff: 8%
ifh: 9%
babip: pretty good on groundballs, projected to be average
s/c/z: pretty good eye but poor contact
r/l: .854/.761
h/a: .830/.833 but slight improvement in k/bb
p/o: definite pull hitter
other: none

7) RF Cody Ross (R): .239/.292/.426

proj: .265/.330/.485
bb: 8%
k: 24%
gb: 37%
iff: 10%
ifh: 4%
babip: average overall
s/c/z: swings a lot, but doesn't make good contact
r/l: .729/.941; 3.7 vs 2.2 k/bb
h/a: not real splits
p/o: pull hitter
other: none

8) Chris Coghlan (L): .191/.291/.255

proj: .260/.330/.380
bb: 8.5%
k: 15%
gb: 55%
iff: 30% (in first 10 flyballs)
ifh: 6%
babip: high groundball rate but high popout rate; projected around average
s/c/z: not a great eye, average contact
r/l: not much of a split in minors
h/a: not enough info
p/o: seems to be a slight pull hitter but tough to know
other: none

BENCH

C Ronny Paulino (R): .232/.348/.357

proj: .265/.325/.405
bb: 8%
k: 19%
gb: 47%
iff: 6%
ifh: 8%
babip: average overall
s/c/z: good eye and somewhat good contact
r/l: .643/.928 career. 2.9 vs 1.2 k/bb
h/a: .736/.698
p/o: hits to opposite field slightly more
other: struggles against power pitchers

1B Ross Gload (L): .279/.375/.377

proj: .280/.325/.405
bb: 6%
k: 12%
gb: 56%
iff: 10%
ifh: 6%
babip:
s/c/z: good eye and good contact but swings a lot, and he sees lots of strikes.
r/l: does as well against lefties in his experiences against him, but he doesn't bat against them rarely and the lack of splits is probably selection bias as he only gets to face weaker lefties
h/a: .775/.713 but similar k/bb numbers
p/o: slight pull hitter
other: none

IF Wes Helms (R): .212/.276/.250

proj: .255/.320/.400
bb: 7%
k: 24%
gb: 40%
iff: 6%
ifh: 6%
babip: a little above average as he avoids infield flies
s/c/z: okay eye poor contact
r/l: 4.0 vs 2.1 k/bb; .712/.815 ops
h/a: .776/.717 ops
p/o: slight pull hitter but spreads ball around well
other: none

C Brett Hayes (R): 1 for 1 (single)

proj: .230/.280/.350
bb: 5%
k: 21%
gb: about 40% in minors
iff: low 20% range in minors
ifh: ?
babip: seems to hit the ball hard but make poor contact and pop out a lot; probably below average
s/c/z: ?
r/l: not enough info
h/a: not enough info
p/o: not enough info
other: none

DISABLED LIST: UTL Alfredo Amezaga (S): .217/.261/.261

proj: .260/.320/.355
bb: 7%
k: 15%
gb: 49%
iff: 14%
ifh: 8%
babip: speedy but doesn't make really solid contact; average overall
s/c/z: average eye but above average contact
r/l: .692 vs .519; 1.8 vs 3.7 k/bb
h/a: not much of a split
p/o: definite pull hitter as righty; slight pull hitter as lefty
other: none

SENT TO AAA: OF Brett Carroll (R): .143/.217/.143

proj: .235/.290/.400
bb: 6.5%
k: 26%
gb: 42%
iff: 6%
ifh: 14%
babip: not much info to tell; projected below average
s/c/z: free swinger who makes very bad contact
r/l: not enough info
h/a: not enough info
p/o: not enough info
other: none

SENT TO AAA: CF Cameron Maybin (R): .202/.280/.310

proj: .275/.345/.430
bb: 9%
k: 30%
gb: 53%
iff: 5%
ifh: 9%
babip: very speedy so probably above average but not as above average as the projections suggest
s/c/z: average eye, poor contact
r/l: not enough info
h/a: not enough info
p/o: not enough info
other: none

ROTATION

MONDAY OPPONENT: Chris Volstad (R): 3.64 ERA, 2.8 BB/9, 7.45 K/9, 1.5 HR/9, 4.64 FIP, 47% GB

proj avg: 4.80 ERA, 3.8 BB/9, 5.5 K/9, 0.8 HR/9
gb: 53%
pitches: 67% fb, 24% cb, 9% ch
r/l: not much of a split
h/a: somewhat of a reverse split but not much info

Volstad vs Phillies:

Rollins: 4/9, 1 2B, 2 BB, 0 K
Howard: 2/9, 1 HR, 1 BB (IBB), 1 K
Utley: 2/7, 1 HR, 1 BB, 1 K, 2 HBP
Victorino: 1/10, 1 3B, 0 BB, 0 K
Werth: 1/8, 0 BB, 4 K
Ruiz: 2/4, 1 BB, 0 K
Dobbs: 0/4, 0 BB, 0 K
Bruntlett: 0/3, 0 BB, 1 K
Feliz: 0/3, 0 BB, 0 K

TUESDAY STARTER: Andrew Miller (L): 4.94 ERA, 5.3 BB/9, 6.1 K/9, 0.4 HR/9, 4.12 FIP, 50% GB

proj avg: 4.60 ERA, 4.5 BB/9, 7.5 K/9, 0.8 HR/9
gb: 48%
pitches: 75% fb, 16% sl, 5% cb, 4% ch, 0.1% ct
r/l: 1.3 vs 1.5 k/bb; .841 vs .699 ops though-- probably selection bias as managers avoided putting lefties against him
h/a: .792 vs .823

Miller vs Phillies:

Utley: 3/9, 1 2B, 1 HR, 3 BB, 4 K, 1 SF, 1 HBP
Rollins: 1/11, 2 BB, 0 K
Howard: 1/10, 1 BB, 3 K, 1 SF
Victorino: 5/11, 1 2B, 2 HR, 1 BB, 1 K
Ibanez: 0/6, 1 BB, 1 K
Ruiz: 0/4, 0 BB, 0 K, 1 HBP
Feliz: 1/4, 0 BB, 0 K
Werth: 0/3, 1 BB, 3 K
Coste: 1/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Stairs: 1 BB

WEDNESDAY STARTER: Hayden Penn (R): 6.97 ERA, 7.0 BB/9, 11.3 K/9, 0.9 HR/9, 4.50 FIP, 52.5% GB

proj avg: 5.20 ERA, 3.7 BB/9, 5.5 K/9, 1.3 HR/9
gb: 42%
pitches: 67% fb, 17% ch, 15% cb
r/l: 0.8 vs 0.9 k/bb; 1.135 vs .825 ops (151 vs 172 pa)
h/a: 1.1 vs 0.7 k/bb; 1.003 vs .948 ops (127 vs 196 pa)

Penn vs. Phillies:

Howard: 1/2, 0 BB, 1 K
Ibanez: 1/1, 1 BB (IBB), 0 K
Werth: 1/2, 1 BB, 0 K
Bruntlett: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K
Coste: 1 HBP
Dobbs: 1 BB
Feliz: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Utley: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Victorino: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K

NOT FACING US: Josh Johnson (R): 2.67 ERA, 2.1 BB/9, 7.9 K/9, 0.5 HR/9, 2.92 FIP, 55% GB

proj avg: 4.00 ERA, 3.4 BB/9, 7.6 K/9, 0.8 HR/9
gb: 47%
pitches: 67% fb, 24% sl, 9% ch
r/l: 2.7 vs 1.7 k/bb; .666 vs .746 ops
h/a: 2.4 vs 1.8 k/bb; .734 vs .676 ops though

Johnson vs. Phillies:

Rollins: 5/20, 1 2B, 1 BB, 2 K
Howard: 7/19, 1 2B, 2 HR, 1 BB, 3 K
Utley: 5/16, 3 BB, 2 K, 1 SF, 0 XBH
Victorino: 3/16, 1 2B, 1 BB, 1 K
Feliz: 3/12, 1 2B, 0 BB, 6 K
Coste: 4/8, 1 2B, 1 HR, 0 BB, 1 K
Dobbs: 2/4, 1 2B, 1 HR, 0 BB, 1 K
Werth: 1/4, 2 BB, 3 K
Ruiz: 0/4, 1 BB, 1 K
Ibanez: 1/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Bruntlett: 0/2

NOT FACING US: Sean West (L): 3.60 ERA, 7.2 BB/9, 9.0 K/9, 0.0 HR/9, 3.55 FIP, 40% GB

proj avg: 6.00 ERA, 6.6 BB/9, 6.6 K/9, 1.3 HR/9
gb: 40-50% in minors, 40% higher up
pitches: ?
r/l: seems to have pretty deep split in minors but tough to know
h/a: not enough info

West: has not faced any Phillies

BULLPEN

CL Matt Lindstrom (R): 6.50 ERA, 7.0 BB/9, 9.0 K/9, 1.0 HR/9, 5.09 FIP, 47% GB

proj avg: 3.90 ERA, 3.6 BB/9, 7.5 K/9, 0.6 HR/9
gb: 47%
pitches: 77% fb, 19% sl, 3% ch, 1% cb
r/l: 2.4 vs 1.9 k/bb; .621 vs .714 ops
h/a: .623 vs .704 ops; 3.2 vs 1.5 k/bb

Lindstrom vs Phillies:

Victorino: 2/7, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K
Rollins: 1/4, 1 BB, 1 K
Werth: 2/5, 1 2B, 0 BB, 1 K
Coste: 0/3, 1 BB, 0 K
Dobbs: 1/4, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Howard: 0/4, 0 BB, 1 K
Utley: 2/3, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K
Feliz: 1/1, 1 BB, 0 K
Bruntlett: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K
Ibanez: 1 BB
Stairs: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K

Leo Nunez (R): 3.63 ERA, 4.8 BB/9, 7.25 K/9, 1.2 HR/9, 4.89 FIP, 44% GB

proj avg: 4.00 ERA, 3.0 BB/9, 6.8 K/9, 1.0 HR/9
gb: 37%
pitches: 61% fb, 20% ch, 19% sl
r/l: 3.4 vs 1.3 k/bb; .727 vs .888 ops
h/a: 2.0 vs 2.3 k/bb; .731 vs .868 ops

Nunez vs Phillies:

Stairs: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K, 1 HBP
Bruntlett: 1/1, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K
Dobbs: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K
Feliz: 1/1, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Ibanez: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Rollins: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K
Utley: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K
Victorino: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Werth: 1 BB

Kiko Calero (R): 2.42 ERA, 4.8 BB/9, 11.3 K/9, 0.0 HR/9, 2.39 FIP, 25% GB

proj avg: 4.40 ERA, 5.0 BB/9, 9.5 K/9, 0.9 HR/9
gb: 35%
pitches: 66% fb, 29% sl, 5% ch
r/l: 3.4 vs 1.8 k/bb; .597 vs .791 ops
h/a: not much of a split

Calero vs Phillies:

Feliz: 3/6, 0 BB, 0 K
Ibanez: 1/2, 1 2B, 2 BB (2 IBB), 1 K
Dobbs: 1/2, 1 BB (IBB), 0 K
Coste: 0/2, 0 BB, 1 K
Stairs: 1/1, 1 BB, 0 K
Bruntlett: 1 SF
Rollins: 1 SF
Victorino: 1/1, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Werth: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K

Dan Meyer (L): 2.79 ERA, 2.8 BB/9, 10.7 K/9, 1.4 HR/9, 3.72 FIP, 23% GB

proj avg: 5.00 ERA, 4.0 BB/9, 7.0 K/9, 1.2 HR/9
gb: 26%
pitches: 64% fb, 17% sl, 19% ch
r/l: 1.2 vs 1.8 k/bb; .913 vs .985 ops (selection bias)
h/a: 1.0 vs 1.9 k/bb; .964 vs .908

Meyer vs Phillies:

Ibanez: 1/5, 1 3B, 0 BB, 2 K
Stairs: 1/2, 0 BB, 1 K
Howard: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Rollins: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Utley: 1 BB
Victorino: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K

Burke Badenhop (R): 5.75 ERA, 3.5 BB/9 ,8.4 K/9, 0.9 HR/9, 3.74 FIP, 50% GB

proj avg: 4.90 ERA, 3.5 BB/9, 5.6 K/9, 1.0 HR/9
gb: 55%
pitches: 71% fb, 15% sl, 14% ch
r/l: 4.8 k/bb vs rhb, 0.7 k/bb vs lhb; also had huge splits in minors
h/a: not enough info

Badenhop vs. Phillies:

Coste: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Feliz: 1/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Bruntlett: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Howard: 1/1, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K
Ibanez: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Utley: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K
Victorino: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Werth: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K

Brian Sanches (R): 0.00 ERA, 1.5 BB/9, 6.0 K/9, 0.0 HR/9, 2.81 FIP, 37.5% GB

proj avg: 4.70 ERA, 3.7 BB/9, 8.2 K/9, 1.3 HR/9
gb: 35%
pitches: 49% fb, 22% sl, 18% sf, 6% ch, 5% cb
r/l: 1.8 vs 1.1 k/bb; .896 ops both ways
h/a: 1.1 vs 2.1 k/bb; 1.004 vs .745 ops

Sanches vs Phillies:

Bruntlett: 1 BB

Christopher Leroux (R): no major league statistics

proj avg: 5.70 ERA, 4.9 BB/9, 6.8 K/9, 1.6 HR/9
gb: 50% about in minors but just in low minors
pitches: ?
r/l: seems better against righties actually
h/a: not enough info

Leroux: has not faced any Phillies

DISABLED LIST: Renyel Pinto (L): 2.53 ERA, 5.1 BB/9, 8.4 K/9, 0.8 HR/9, 4.32 FIP, 30% GB

proj avg: 4.20 ERA, 5.3 BB/9, 8.5 K/9, 1.0 HR/9
gb: 42%
pitches: 61% fb, 32% ch, 8% sl
r/l: 1.3 vs 1.9 k/bb; .680 vs .744 ops (selection bias again)
h/a: .675 vs .734 ops; 1.3 vs 1.9 k/bb

Pinto vs Phillies:

Howard: 2/12, 1 2B, 1 HR, 3 BB, 7 K
Utley: 5/8, 1 2B, 1 HR, 3 BB, 1 K, 3 HBP
Victorino: 2/9, 1 HR, 0 BB, 3 K
Rollins: 1/5, 0 BB, 1 K
Coste: 2/3, 1 HR, 0 BB, 1 K
Ibanez: 1/3, 0 BB, 1 K
Ruiz: 0/2, 0 BB, 1 K
Bruntlett: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Werth: 1 BB

DISABLED LIST: Anibal Sanchez (R): 5.79 ERA, 4.1 BB/9, 6.9 K/9, 1.65 HR/9, 5.38 FIP, 39% GB

proj avg: 4.30 ERA, 4.0 BB/9, 7.2 K/9, 0.9 HR/9
gb: 43%
pitches: 57% fb, 19% sl, 16% cb, 8% ch, 1% ct
r/l: .653 vs .780 ops; 2.2 vs 1.1 k/bb
h/a: .668 vs .782; 1.9 vs 1.1 k/bb

Sanchez vs Phillies:

Utley: 5/13, 2 2B, 1 3B, 1 BB, 3 K
Victorino: 3/12, 1 HR, 2 BB, 2 K
Howard: 4/8, 2 2B, 1 HR, 5 BB (1 IBB), 1 K
Rollins: 4/10, 1 BB, 2 K
Ruiz: 3/6, 2 2B, 1 BB, 1 K
Dobbs: 1/5, 0 BB, 0 K
Werth: 0/4, 0 BB, 3 K
Coste: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K, 1 HBP
Bruntlett: 1/2, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Stairs: 1 BB

DEMOTED TO AAA: Ricky Nolasco (R): 9.07 ERA, 2.7 BB/9, 7. K/9, 1.65 HR/9, 4.80 ERA, 32% GB

proj avg: 4.10 ERA, 2.2 BB/9, 7.5 K/9, 1.2 HR/9
gb: 39%
pitches: 5% fb, 27% cb, 16% sl, 5% sf, 1% ch
r/l: 5.1 vs 2.2 k/bb! .682 vs .811 ops
h/a: 3.9 vs 2.8 k/bb but .682 vs .811 ops

Nolasco vs Phillies:

Rollins: 5/19, 2 2B, 2 HR, 1 BB, 2 K
Utley: 6/17, 1 2B, 2 BB, 2 K, 1 HBP
Howard: 3/13, 3 HR, 6 BB (4 IBB), 2 K
Victorino: 3/16, 2 2B, 0 BB, 3 K, 1 Sac
Coste: 3/9, 2 2B, 0 BB, 2 K
Ruiz: 1/7, 0 BB, 1 K, 1 HBP
Dobbs: 2/6, 0 BB, 3 K
Feliz: 0/6, 0 BB, 3 K
Werth: 1/4, 0 BB, 2 K

PHILLIES

LINE UP

1) SS Jimmy Rollins (S): .233/.280/.344

projection average (proj): .285/.350/.460
projected BB/PA (bb): 8%
projected K/AB (k): 11%
career gb% (gb): 42%
career infield flies/flyball (iff): 10%
career infield hits/groundball (ifh): 5%
batting average on balls in play tendencies (babip): about average overall, though a little bit high popup rate so slightly below average
swing/contact/zone facts (s/c/z): good eye, pretty selective, but very high contact rate so low walk rate
righty/lefty (r/l): 1.7 vs 1.3 k/bb, mostly because of higher k-rate as lhb. otherwise similar on contact
home/away (h/a): 1.5 vs 1.7 k/bb; .805 vs .739 ops
pull/opposite (p/o): definite pull hitter
anything else (other): stole 47 bases in 50 attempts last year.

2) 2B Chase Utley (L): .297/.434/.580

proj: .295/.380/.525
bb: 9.5%
k: 18%
gb: 37%
iff: 10%
ifh: 6%
babip: distinctly above average historically and for projections too; seemingly strong power leads to high line drive babip rate and reasonably high groundball babip especially for pull hitting lefty; high on flyballs despite high infield fly rate since he hits deep flyballs
s/c/z: pretty good eye, somewhat selective, somewhat high contact rate
r/l: not significant-- only 1.7 vs 2.0 k/bb; .919 vs .865 ops
h/a: similar k/bb home & away; better hr at home-- probably park factors; higher babip at home too
p/o: pull hitter
other: much better against power pitchers relative to other hitters

3) LF Raul Ibanez (L): .352/.412/.739

proj: .285/.350/.480
bb: 9%
k: 17%
gb: 42%
iff: 11%
ifh: 5%
babip: above average, probably because he spreads the ball around pretty well for a power hitter; much better babip with men on-- probably hooks ball in hole well or maybe he was shifted against more so beforehand
s/c/z: definitely a good eye though it's getting worse, slightly above average contact
r/l: .850 vs .733; 1.5 vs 2.8 k/bb
h/a: better k/bb (1.6 vs 1.9) but worse power probably park factors, and probably likely to be better at home
p/o: slight pull hitter but not much for a power hitter
other: none

4) 1B Ryan Howard (L): .256/.333/.512

proj: .275/.375/580
bb: 14%
k: 33%
gb: 40%
iff: 2%
ifh: 4%
babip: low on groundballs over time as he pulls the vast majority of them; very very high on flyballs because he almost never pops out in the infield at all and many of his flyballs are very deep. also since so few of his flyballs stay in the park (only 2/3 or so), a higher percentage of his balls in play are line drives-- which he does well on like many power hitters-- his low contact rate means he sometimes make poor contact though. probably above average overall
s/c/z: swings a lot especially for someone who doesn't see many strikes. however, he is pretty good at distinguishing pulls from strikes despite the consensus on him. he makes terrible contact overall though
r/l: 1.064 vs .786 ops: say it with me "that means he's good against righties, not bad against lefties!" in fact, he's the best hitter against righties in baseball right now probably. his k/bb vs lhp is 3.7 vs 1.6 vs rhp. he has a lot of power against lefties however, but a lower babip. i don't have split data on pull% vs lhp/rhp but observationally i'm pretty sure that's the difference in his babip: .338 vs .309.
h/a: much higher babip on road. very similar hr numbers. 2.0 vs 3.2 k/bb.
p/o: pull hitter, especially on groundballs-- hits more homeruns the opposite way though
other: struggles mightily against power pitchers and groundball pitchers, dominate flyball pitchers (since he almost never pops out, and has 10.3% hr rate) and smashes finesse pitchers (11.8% hr rate); he also does much better on babip with runners on base as defenders can't shift against him-- especially with runners in scoring position

5) RF Jayson Werth (R): .262/.358/.490

proj: .270/.360/.460
bb: 12.5%
k: 29%
gb: 38%
iff: 8%
ifh: 8%
babip: high on groundballs due to high infield hit rate, high on line drives due to power, and hits pretty deep flyballs too; has been historically probably higher than it should be since he's faced more lhp than normal rhb do; overall still seems to be very above average
s/c/z: very selective and pretty good eye; somewhat low contact rate
r/l: .762 vs .919 ops; 2.4 vs 2.0 k/bb; hr rate of 6.7% vs 2.9%
h/a: not much of a split at all
p/o: spreads ball around well for power hitter, but still a pull hitter
other: stole 20 bases in 21 attempts last year

6) CF Shane Victorino (S): .269/.313/.429

proj: .285/.345/.430
bb: 7.5%
k: 13%
gb: 46%
iff: 15%
ifh: 8%
babip: slightly above average due to high babip on groundballs-- partly because infield plays in for him and he spreads the ball around well; not that high due to high infield fly rate
s/c/z: pretety bad eye but high contact rate
r/l: much more power righthanded (1.6% to 3.8% HR rate), but much better k/bb as lefty: 1.65 vs 1.88; higher babip lefty also (.316 vs .286)
h/a: far fewer walks on road but nearly exactly the same strikeout rate, same power, same babip
p/o: pull hitter both ways
other: stole 36 of 47 bases last year

7) 3B Pedro Feliz (R): .295/.367/.410

proj: .250/.300/.420
bb: 6%
k: 15.5%
gb: 44%
iff: 15%
ifh: 5%
babip: very low-- pops up a lot, hits groundballs predictably to left side and is slow so they can play shaded over and deep; not all that much power so not terrific on line drives either, makes a lot of weak contact as he isn't good at making contact so he chops a lot of balls
s/c/z: high swing rate and not terribly good at distinguishing balls from strikes. swung significantly less in 2008, but it was as much of a decrease in balls as strikes, makes average contact
r/l: 3.3 vs 2.3 k/bb; .708 vs .755 ops, more babip and a little more power agaisnt lefties
h/a: much higher k rate on road, similar bb rate; more power on road, higher babip at home. likely not much difference (.725 vs .716 overall ops)
p/o: definite pull hitter
other: defensive numbers dipped last year, had offseason surgery for back, perhaps these are related

8) Carlos Ruiz (R): .302/.421/.444

proj: .255/.335/.390
bb: 10%
k: 14%
gb: 50% (but rose in 2008 to 54% from 46%)
iff: 9.5%
ifh: 4%
babip: was extraordinarily low in 2008, but that seems to be rather flukey. his high groundball rate and solid contact rate and pitch selection indicate he should be a good babip guy, but he does very poorly on groundball as he chops the ball a lot
s/c/z: very good eye and excellent contact skill, extremely patient
r/l: bizarre reverse split despite 0.5 k/bb vs lhp and 1.2 vs rhp; impossibly low .204 babip against lhp, probably flukey and probably much better vs lhp in reality
h/a: similar k/bb, worse babip but higher power at home (park factors)
p/o: slight pull hitter
other: better against power pitchers, currently on DL with strained rib cage, probably longer than 15 days as originally thought

BENCH

C Chris Coste (R): .250/.319/.393

proj: .265/.315/.405
bb: 5.5%
k: 17.5%
gb: 40%
iff: 10%
ifh: 6%
babip: slightly below average, seemingly due to poor eye and swinging and hitting bad pitches
s/c/z: high swing rate, pretty poor eye, average contact
r/l: .747 vs .855; same k/bb rate, much better babip against lhp, similar power but slightly more vs lhp
h/a: .886 vs .679; 5.4% vs 1.5% hr rate
p/o: pull hitter
other: struggles with power pitchers somewhat

IF/OF Eric Bruntlett (R): .118/.179/.235

proj: .240/.325/.335
bb: 10%
k: 18%
gb: 41%
iff: 14%
ifh: 5%
babip: high popup rate leads to low babip, but not that low; also doesn't do all that well on line drives due to lack of power
s/c/z: somewhat above average eye and doesn't swing much; makes very good contact, sees a lot of strikes
r/l: .592 vs .764 ops; 2.5 vs 1.2 k/bb; 5.7% vs 8.8% xbh/ab-- he's actually average if not above average against lhp; he just is terrible against rhb. he should be used as a counterswitch to loogy use against lefty pinch hitters
h/a: more power at home and more walks at home; similar strikeout rate and babip
p/o: opposite field hitter
other: none

IF Greg Dobbs (L): .143/.250/.229

proj: .285/.335/.445
bb: 7%
k: 17%
gb: 36%
iff: 13.5%
ifh: 3%
babip: has been high but probably should not be projected as high-- success derives from impossibly high line drive babip which doesn't typically happen for non-extreme power hitters. given his popup rate, he probably isn't a .320 babip guy and there isn't a .285 hitter
s/c/z: poor eye but very high swing rate; average contact rate
r/l: .761 vs .579 ops despite impossible .481 babip against lhp. in reality, he strikes out in 48% of at-bats against lhp. he should never see them. absolutely no power against lefties also.
h/a: virtually no split at all
p/o: pull hitter
other: much better against finesse pitchers

OF Matt Stairs (L): .286/.474/.536

proj: .255/.340/.440
bb: 11%
k: 22%
gb: 42%
iff: 11.5%
ifh: 5%
babip: average all around
s/c/z: very good eye and slightly below average contact
r/l: .862 vs .748; much more power against rhp; 1.4 vs 2.1 k/bb
h/a: not much of a split at all
p/o: slight pull hitter but not much for a power hitter
other: use stairs in case of emergency

OF John Mayberry (R): .250/.250/.750

proj: .235/.290/.415
bb: 6.5%
k: 27%
iff: around 15-20% in minors
ifh: ?
babip: hits ball hard but pops up a lot; probably a bit average but tough to know; projected below average
s/c/z: not enough info
r/l: batter against lefties, particularly at making contact, in minors
h/a: not enough info
p/o: not enough info
other: none

ROTATION

MONDAY STARTER: Jamie Moyer (L): 7.62 ERA, 3.05 BB/9, 4.6 K/9, 2.6 HR/9, 7.21 FIP, 35% GB

proj avg: 4.80 ERA, 2.8 BB/9, 5.5 K/9, 1.2 HR/9
gb: 39%
pitches: 41% fb, 30% ct, 24% ch, 6% cb
r/l: virtually no split but that seems to be selection as he sees 24% lefties only compared with 32% league average for lhp
h/a: 2.3 vs 1.9 k/bb; not much difference on contact; slightly better babip at home but not more so than the average starter gets

Moyer vs. Marlins:

Ramirez: 12/34, 1 3B, 4 HR, 3 BB (1 IBB), 3 K
Uggla: 7/32, 2 2B, 1 BB, 12 K
Ross: 6/29, 1 HR, 1 BB, 4 K, 1 HBP
Cantu: 6/21, 3 BB, 2 K
Hermida: 3/16, 1 HR, 3 BB, 3 K, 2 HBP
Helms: 4/10, 1 2B, 1 HR, 2 BB, 2 K
Baker: 3/7, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K, 1 HBP
Paulino: 4/8, 0 BB, 1 K

TUESDAY STARTER: Joe Blanton (R): 7.11 ERA, 3.45 BB/9, 7.5 K/9, 1.8 HR/9, 5.40 FIP, 40% GB

proj avg: 4.25 ERA, 2.5 BB/9, 5.8 K/9, 0.9 HR/9
gb: 45%
pitches: 56% fb, 16% ch, 15% sl, 12% cb
r/l: 2.3 vs 1.8 k/bb; .750 vs .719 ops
h/a: 2.2 vs 2.0 k/bb; .698 vs .776 ops; much worse babip away (.313 vs .282), more power surrendered on road
other: extraordinarily good against leadoff hitters, especially the first hitter of games

Blanton vs Marlins:

Cantu: 3/13, 1 2B, 1 HR, 1 BB, 2 K
Bonifacio: 2/7, 2 2B, 1 BB, 1 K, 1 SF
Baker: 1/3, 1 2B, 1 BB, 1 K, 1 SF
Uggla: 0/3, 1 BB, 1 K
Gload: 2/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Hermida: 0/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Ramirez: 1/2, 1 BB, 0 K
Ross: 0/2, 0 BB, 1 K

WEDNESDAY STARTER: Brett Myers (R): 4.34 ERA, 2.95 BB/9, 6.7 K/9, 2.3 HR/9, 6.22 FIP, 48% GB

proj avg: 4.15 ERA, 3.1 BB/9, 8.0 K/9, 1.3 HR/9
gb: 47%
pitches: 48% fb, 23% cb, 18% sl, 9% ch, 1% ct, 0.2% sf
r/l: .788 vs .747 ops despite 3.1 vs 1.95 k/bb; main issue is much higher HR rate vs rhb, slightly higher babip vs them as well; does not seem to be selection bias
h/a: .738 vs .800 ops; 2.7 vs 2.15 k/bb; slightly higher HR rate at home, but that is probably park factors as he surrenders far more doubles on road
other: HR rate is bizarre-- very few pitchers have the HR/Flyball rate he does. My personal suspicion is that statistics that don't exhibit much persistence despite what common sense suggests only do not exhibit persistence specifically because players make adjustments. If you throw fastball after fastball on the outside corner on every 1-2 count, the hitters will respond by hitting singles to the opposite field over and over again and your BABIP will go up. However, pitchers learn to mix up their pitches and BABIP ends up lacking persistence due to the constant game theoretical reaction that pitchers and hitters take. For Myers, his bizarre refusal to use his curveball early in the game leaves him especially vulernable to RHB who know it isn't coming. A little game theoretical mixed strategy would probably allow him to finally live up to his peripherals which suggest a low HR rate and borderline ace stuff.

Myers vs. Marlins:

Uggla: 12/33, 1 2B, 1 3B, 4 HR, 2 BB, 8 K
Ramirez: 10/28, 3 2B, 1 HR, 3 BB, 6 K, 1 Sac
Hermida: 3/17, 3 BB, 7 K
Ross: 2/13, 1 2B, 1 BB, 3 K
Cantu: 5/10, 2 2B, 1 HR, 0 BB, 1 K
Bonifacio: 2/6, 2 BB, 3 K
Helms: 0/3, 1 BB, 2 K
Baker: 2/6, 1 BB, 1 K
Gload: 1/4, 2 BB, 0 K
Paulino: 0/3, 0 BB, 0 K

NOT STARTING THIS WEEKEND: Cole Hamels (L): 4.68 ERA, 1.9 BB/9, 9.1 K/9, 1.9 HR/9, 4.52 FIP, 38% GB

proj avg: 3.45 ERA, 2.3 BB/9, 8.4 K/9, 1.1 HR/9
gb: 40%
pitches: 55% fb, 32% ch, 14% cb
r/l: .680 vs .748, but same 3.6 k/bb both ways; slightly more power vs lhb-- this is probably selection bias as managers withhold all but the best lefties against him (explaining 20% of hitters faced are lefties only)
h/a: 3.85 vs 3.4 k/bb; .676 vs .709 ops-- less of a difference due to higher HR rate at home
other: much higher k-rate at night: 25% vs 20%, which is statistically significant. ERA difference (4.71 vs 3.01 exaggerated by babip difference), as HR rate and XBH rate very similar. most likely he strikes out more at night.

Hamels vs Marlins:

Ramirez: 9/24, 6 2B, 3 BB, 7 K
Uggla: 3/23, 1 2B, 2 BB, 6 K, 1 SF
Helms: 6/18, 2 2B, 1 BB, 6 K, 1 SF
Ross: 4/19, 1 2B, 2 HR, 1 BB, 3 K
Hermida: 4/19, 1 HR, 0 BB, 4 K
Cantu: 3/13, 3 HR, 1 BB, 1 K
Baker: 0/3, 0 BB, 2 K

J.A. Happ (L): 2.60 ERA, 2.9 BB/9, 6.8 K/9, 0.65 HR/9, 3.65 FIP, 38% GB

proj avg: 4.40 ERA, 3.8 BB/9, 7.7 K/9, 1.2 HR/9
gb: 29% in majors thus far; 42% in AAA in 2008
pitches: 64% fb, 18% ch, 14% sl, 2% ct, 2% cb
r/l: 1.7 vs 3.0 k/bb in majors thus far; 2.7 vs 3.5 k/bb in AAA in 2008
h/a: not enough info

Happ vs Marlins:

Cantu: 1/4, 0 BB, 1 K
Hermida: 3/4, 0 BB, 0 K
Ross: 2/4, 1 HR, 0 BB, 1 K
Uggla: 1/4, 0 BB, 1 K
Ramirez: 0/1, 1 BB, 0 K, 1 SF
Baker: 0/1, 1 BB, 1 K
Bonifacio: 0/2, 0 BB, 2 K
Helms: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K
Paulino: 1/1, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K

BULLPEN

CL Brad Lidge (R): 9.15 ERA, 5.5 BB/9, 9.6 K/9, 2.75 HR/9, 6.96 FIP, 36% GB

proj avg: 3.50 ERA, 4.1 BB?9, 11.0 K/9, 0.8 HR/9
gb: 41% (though this went up to 46% with increased slider use in 2008)
pitches: 56% sl, 43% fb, 0.4% ch in 2008 (historically 54% fb, 42% sl)
r/l: 3.6 vs 2.8 k/bb; .601 vs .686 ops (tough to tell if that tendency became more or less extreme in 2008 due to limited sample size)
h/a: 3.6 vs 2.9 k/bb; .666 vs .614 ops though due to higher babip away
other: HR/Flyball plummeted in 2008-- probably unsustainably low and his ERA should rise; still rumors of him tipping pitches explain the HR/Flyball spike in 2006 & 2007

Lidge vs Marlins:

Helms: 3/10, 1 2B, 0 BB, 6 K, 1 SF
Paulino: 2/9, 0 BB, 3 K
Cantu: 1/5, 1 2B, 1 BB, 1 K, 1 HBP
Ramirez: 1/5, 1 BB, 3 K
Uggla: 1/4, 2 BB, 1 K
Hermida: 2/3, 2 BB, 1 K
Baker: 1/3, 0 BB, 2 K
Bonifacio: 1/3, 0 BB, 1 K
Ross: 0/3, 0 BB, 2 K

Ryan Madson (R): 2.95 ERA, 2.5 BB/9, 9.7 K/9, 0.0 HR/9, 1.83 FIP, 39% GB

proj avg: 3.80 ERA, 2.9 BB/9, 7.2 K/9, 0.8 HR/9
gb: 48%
pitches: 58% fb, 24% ch, 15% ct, 4% cb
r/l: 3.65 vs 1.8 k/bb; .714 vs .786 ops
h/a: no major split at all

Madson vs Marlins:

Ramirez: 5/17, 2 2B, 1 BB, 3 K
Uggla: 4/17, 1 2B, 1 HR, 1 BB, 6 K
Cantu: 2/7, 0 BB, 1 K
Helms: 0/6, 0 BB, 0 K, 1 SF
Ross: 1/5, 1 BB, 3 K
Hermida: 0/4, 2 BB (1 IBB), 2 K
Baker: 0/4, 0 BB, 1 K
Gload: 1/3, 1 2B, 0 BB, 2 K
Bonifacio: 0/2, 0 BB, 1 K
Paulino: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K

Scott Eyre (L): 3.48 ERA, 7.0 BB/9, 6.1 K/9, 1.7 HR/9, 6.92 FIP, 38% GB

proj avg: 4.20 ERA, 4.1 BB/9, 8.8 K/9, 0.9 HR/9
gb: 41%
pitches: 59% fb, 35% sl, 6% ch, 0.2% cb
r/l: 1.5 vs 1.9 k/bb; .815 vs .720 ops
h/a: not much of a split

Eyre vs Marlins:

Hermida: 0/3, 0 BB, 3 K
Bonifacio: 0/2, 0 BB, 1 K
Helms: 0/2, 0 BB, 1 K
Paulino: 0/2, 0 BB, 1 K
Uggla: 1/1, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K, 1 SF
Baker: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Ramirez: 1 BB

Jack Taschner (L): 3.66 ERA, 6.4 BB/9, 4.6 K/9, 0.9 HR/9, 5.89 FIP, 35.5% GB

proj avg: 4.50 ERA, 4.1 BB/9, 8.0 K/9, 1.0 HR/9
gb: 35%
pitches: 57% fb, 30% sl, 13% ch
r/l: 1.45 vs 2.2 k/bb; .754 vs .747-- large selection bias where he faces only very good lefties and not very good righties
h/a: .698 vs .797 ops; 2.1 vs 1.5 k/bb

Taschner vs Marlins:

Cantu: 2/3, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Ross: 0/2, 1 BB, 0 K
Baker: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Gload: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Hermida: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K
Paulino: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Uggla: 1 BB

Chad Durbin (R): 4.32 ERA, 4.7 BB/9, 7.9 K/9, 1.1 HR/9, 4.99 FIP, 33% GB

proj avg: 4.10 ERA, 3.5 BB/9, 6.5 K/9, 1.0 HR/9
gb: 41%
pitches: 47% fb, 38% sl, 8% ch, 7% cb, 1% ct
r/l: virtually no split
h/a: somewhat of a reverse split but probably just noise

Durbin vs Marlins:

Ramirez: 2/5, 1 2B, 1 BB (IBB), 1 K
Baker: 1/5, 1 2B, 0 BB, 1 K
Ross: 1/5, 1 2B, 0 BB, 1 K
Uggla: 0/4, 1 BB, 1 K
Gload: 3/4, 0 BB, 0 K
Cantu: 1/3, 0 BB, 1 K
Hermida: 0/2, 0 BB, 1 K
Bonifacio: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K

Clay Condrey (R): 2.19 ERA, 3.3 BB/9, 5.8 K/9, 1.1 HR/9, 4.53 FIP, 50% GB

proj avg: 4.50 ERA, 2.8 BB/9, 4.9 K/9, 0.8 HR/9
gb: 50%
pitches: 59% fb, 17% ct, 15% sl, 9% ch
r/l: 2.1 vs 1.3 k/bb; .761 vs .842 ops
h/a: .703 vs .898 ops; 2.2 vs 1.3 k/bb

Condrey vs Marlins:

Ramirez: 2/9, 1 BB, 0 K
Uggla: 0/8, 0 BB, 1 K, 1 HBP
Hermida: 1/6, 2 BB, 0 K
Cantu: 3/5, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Helms: 2/4, 1 2B, 0 BB, 1 K
Ross: 1/4, 1 2B, 0 BB, 1 K
Baker: 1/1, 1 BB, 0 K
Bonifacio: 0/2, 0 BB, 1 K
Paulino: 1/2, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K
Gload: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K

Chan Ho Park (R): 6.88 ERA, 4.8 BB/9, 5.6 K/9, 1.3 HR/9, 5.61 FIP, 43% GB

proj avg: 4.50 ERA, 3.5 BB/9, 7.3 K/9, 1.2 HR/9
gb: 45%
pitches: 51% FB, 29% SL, 12% cb, 5% ch, 4% ct
r/l: .666 vs .820 ops; 2.6 vs 1.3 k/bb; .280 vs .301 babip; 2.6% vs 3.6% HR rate-- much better against righties
h/a: 2.0 vs 1.7 k/bb; .708 vs .780 ops

Park vs. Marlins:

Ramirez: 5/7, 1 HR, 2 BB, 0 K
Uggla: 1/6, 1 HR, 2 BB, 1 K
Hermida: 0/6, 0 BB, 1 K
Baker: 4/5, 1 2B, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K
Cantu: 3/5, 1 2B, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K
Bonifacio: 0/4, 0 BB, 2 K
Paulino: 1/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Ross: 0/5, 0 BB, 2 K

SUSPENDED: J.C. Romero (L)

proj avg: 4.00 ERA, 5.5 BB?9, 7.5 K/9, 0.7 HR/9
gb: 55%
pitches: 58% fb, 25% sl, 17% ch, 0.1% cb
r/l: 1.2 vs 2.2 k/bb; .814 vs. 591 ops
h/a: 1.6 vs 1.3 k/bb; .697 vs .768 ops

Romero vs Marlins:

Helms: 2/6, 0 BB, 0 K
Uggla: 1/1, 1 2B, 2 BB, 0 K
Cantu: 0/1, 1 BB, 0 K
Hermida: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Ross: 1/2, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K
Baker: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K
Bonifacio: 1 BB
Gload: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Paulino: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Ramirez: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K