SB Nation - Glendon Rusch

The Thursday Thinker: About Above Average

KLSnow — Thu, 12 Nov 2009 18:00:30 -0000

Manny Parra is not one of the 24 pitchers with above average Brewer careers. How many can you name?

As we progress through the offseason, there will probably be some conversations about "league average" pitching and its value. Here's something to keep in mind during that conversation: Counting one season as the Seattle Pilots, the Brewer franchise has been around for 41 seasons, and has had 51 pitchers rack up at least 300 innings as a Brewer during that time. Of those 51 pitchers, only 24 have posted an ERA+ of 100 or better.

To put that another way: More than half of the most-used pitchers in Brewer history have been below average. For whatever it's worth, here's the bottom five:

Pitcher	Seasons	IP	ERA	ERA+
Bill Parsons	1971-1973	518.1	3.91	85
Bill Champion	1973-1976	432.1	4.41	84
Manny Parra	2007-2009	332.1	5.17	83
Glendon Rusch	2002-2003	334	5.34	78
Gene Brabender	1969-1970	331	5.00	74

Anyway, back to the positive. Twenty-four pitchers have posted an ERA+ of 100 or more in at least 300 innings as a Brewer. How many can you name in ten minutes?

Again, here are the rules: Post your score in the comments, but don't comment on any specific answer until after 6 pm Central time, so everyone gets a chance to try it out without having it spoiled for them. And, of course, there's no reason to cheat here, because there's no prizes.

This is probably the toughest quiz I've posted, with a handful of names on it I didn't even recognize and many more I never would have thought to guess. If you somehow manage to get them all, though, post your time along with your score in the comments. If you can get more than 10-12 of the 24, you're probably doing pretty well.

Have fun, and don't forget to post your score in the comments!

Tuesday's Frosty Mug

KLSnow — Tue, 13 Oct 2009 13:12:28 -0000

More photos » by Charles Rex Arbogast - AP

Prince Fielder, seen here checking under his jersey for another jersey, will likely be offered a long term contract by the Brewers this offseason, according to Jon Heyman.

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Some things to read while learning your costume's limitations.

Two more names have surfaced in the search for a new pitching coach: Former Arizona pitching coach Bryan Price and former Rays pitching coach Chuck Hernandez have both reportedly interviewed for the position this week (FanShot). Rick Peterson still appears to be the favorite, but Hernandez has worked with Macha before, and that fact seems to carry some weight for some reason.

It's widely accepted that Albert Pujols will win the NL MVP, but where will Prince Fielder finish? David Gassko of The Hardball Times has developed a system to predict the BBWAA's voting, and it predicts a third place finish for Fielder, behind Pujols and Ryan Howard. Meanwhile, Jon Heyman thinks the Brewers will attempt to sign Fielder to a long term deal this offseason.

USA Today has ranked the "shock wave" celebration following Fielder's walk-off home run on September 6 as one of their top ten highlights of the 2009 season. Certainly, it's a moment we'll remember for quite some time.

This is earlier than I normally do birthdays, but happy birthday to Trevor Hoffman, who turns 42 today. As Adam McCalvy notes, Hoffman will become the second oldest player in franchise history with his first appearance in 2010, and could pass Hank Aaron for first place by appearing in a game anytime after June.

Speaking of pitchers who should return next season, there's a new reason to join the Bring Back Seth McClung Facebook group. McClung has agreed to give an autographed ball to one randomly selected member of the group, to be chosen on Monday. Membership of the group more than doubled yesterday, but clearly we can do better. If you haven't joined yet, now is the time.

R.J. Anderson of FanGraphs has a look at Felipe Lopez, who is riding a career year into free agency for the second time. Anderson notes the differences between Lopez's 2005 and 2009 seasons.

We're just a few hours away from the start of the Arizona Fall League, as the Peoria Javelinas take on Ian Kennedy and the Surprise Rafters at 1:35 Central time today. Adam McCalvy has a preview of the AFL, complete with a link to this PDF of everything you ever wanted to know about the league, and this definition of a Javelina:

Here's something you won't find in that PDF: A javelina, according to the Arizona Game and Fish Department, is also known as a peccary, a medium-sized mammal that looks a bit like a pig. A terrifying, crazed pig.

Here are some other notes on the AFL:

As far as I know, none of the Brewer beat reporters will be in Arizona covering the AFL, but the Javelinas also feature prospects from the Seattle Mariners, and Geoff Baker of the Seattle Times will be in Arizona following them.
If Baker's coverage and ours aren't enough for you, you can also follow the AFL on Twitter.

Of course, the AFL isn't the only place where baseball is being played right now. The Nashville Sounds' website has a note on the 2009 Sounds playing winter ball in Venezuela. Hernan Iribarren's Cardenales de Lara defeated Adam Heether's Leones del Caracas last night, 7-1. Iribarren went 1-for-4 with a double and scored a run, while Heether went 0-for-3 with a walk.

Need a mental tune-up this morning? NoahJ wants to know how fast you can name the 39 players who appeared in a game for the Brewers this season. I did it with about four and a half minutes to spare, if you need a record to shoot for.

Oh, and if you haven't yet, you're running out of time to cast your ballot in Tangotiger's Fan Scouting Report. Even if you've already cast a ballot, you can stop by to rate some of the players that have recently been added, including Alcides Escobar.

If you've done both of those things and you're still looking for something to do, perhaps you should find a job? The Brewers are hiring an HR Coordinator.

Baseball America's Minor League Transactions include the first wave of players to become minor league free agents this offseason, and there's a bunch of former Brewers among them: Greg Aquino, R.J. Swindle, Glendon Rusch, R.A. Dickey and Joe Dillon. Also noted: The Brewers re-signed minor league free agents Jim Henderson (RP) and Patrick Arlis (C), but allowed Chris Duffy to become a free agent.

Elsewhere in the marketplace:

Intro to Sabermetrics 101 has a look at Carl Pavano, and why advanced metrics would imply he was better than his conventional numbers showed in 2009.
Jorge Says No! wonders if Jason Marquis' offseason asking price will go down now that he struggled down the stretch and had his start skipped in the NLDS last night.

Continuing their open search process, the Astros have released the names of the ten candidates for their vacant managerial position, and the list includes two former Brewer managers: Ned Yost, as expected, and Phil Garner, who would be entering his second tour of duty managing the team. Garner reportedly called to advocate for Bob Melvin, who coached under him in Milwaukee, but ended up as a candidate himself. The Astros, by the way, are not considering Willie Randolph.

It was a bittersweet moment at TBS headquarters last night, as the end of the final NLDS series meant they'll only get 13 of a possible 20 Division Series broadcasts, but that didn't keep them from celebrating the elimination of the last small market team. Of course, Hass Avocado is the true winner.

I wasn't exactly cheering on the Dodgers over the weekend, but when they won I was happy to see Mark Loretta playing a part in it. Loretta languished for years on some pretty terrible Brewer teams, so it's nice to see karma catching up with him.

I mentioned Trevor Hoffman's birthday above, but today birthday wishes also go out to Damian Miller, who turns 40.

Drink up.

Adam Dunn = 40/100?

Ed Chigliak — Thu, 17 Sep 2009 17:00:16 -0000

More photos » by Nam Y Huh - AP

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Ever since Adam Dunn signed with DC, the fans of the Washington Nationals have been told, "40/100!" Yeah, he strikes out and he's a defensive liability in left, but, "40/100". Sure he's getting $10M a year on a team with a $60M+ payroll, but the team needs a big middle of the order bat...40/100! Q: But why have a 40 HR guy with 100 RBI's on a 100-loss team...A: 40/100. Dunn's just 1 RBI away from 100, but he's 3 HR's away from 40 dingers with 17 games left to play, and if he reaches 40 HR's he'll be one of only 4 people to have hit 40 or more in six-straight seasons, and if he does it again in 2010, he'll be one of only two, just Adam Troy "Big Donkey" (DCMD) Dunn and George Herman "Babe" Ruth, with 40 HR's in seven-straight...Here's how and when Dunn hit #40 in each of the last 5 seasons...

August 30, 2004: Houston Astros' right-hander Peter Munro gives up a two-run HR to Felipe Lopez after a Ryan Freel double opens the fifth inning, making it 3-2 Astros, and one out later it's 3-3 when Adam Dunn hits his 40th HR off the season, a solo shot in the 130th game of 2004. Dunn would go on to hit 6 more in September for his career high total of 46 HR's...

October 2, 2005: Game 162. Cincinnati at St. Louis. Adam Dunn hits a solo HR in the third inning of the last game on the Reds' schedule against the first-place Cardinals, who would end up losing the '05 NLCS to Houston in 6 games. Cards' right-hander Matt Morris surrenders his 22nd HR of '05, and Dunn, has two straight 40 HR seasons.

September 8, 2006: In the 141st game of the Cincinnati Reds' '06 season, Adam Dunn takes Pirates' right-hander Brian Rogers deep to right field in Great American Ballpark in the seventh inning of a 9-1 Reds' win. It's the second of only two HR's Dunn hits in September and the last he hits that year...

September 19, 2007: Adam Dunn needed 4 HR's in September 2007 to hit 40 and he got the fourth in Wrigley Field off Cubs' lefty Ted Lilly, who gave up the solo shot to right to give Adam Dunn four-straight seasons of 40 or more. Dunn's solo shot was good for one of the two runs the Reds scored that day in a 3-2 loss to the Cubs. It was the last HR Dunn hit that year in the 152nd game of the season.

September 27th, 2008: In the next-to-last game of the Arizona Diamondbacks' 2008 season, Adam Dunn, who had been acquired by the D-Backs from the Reds on August 11th, hits hit 8th HR for Arizona and his 40th HR of 2008, a solo shot off Colorado left-hander Glendon Rusch in a 6-4 Arizona win over the Rockies. It's Dunn's 4th HR in 14 games to get him up to 40 for the fifth-straight season...

?'s For The DC Faithful...

• Will Adam Dunn reach 40 HR's for the sixth-straight season to tie Alex Rodriguez and Sammy Sosa?

• Will it mean anything to you if he breaks the record next year as a National?

• Do you think he'll be traded before he hits #40 next season?

A Memorial Day To Remember: Cubs vs. Pirates, Monday 5/25, 7:05 CT

Al — Mon, 25 May 2009 22:00:12 -0000

More photos » by Lenny Ignelzi - AP

Write your own caption!

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First, let me take a bit of this space to thank all those who serve or have served this country in the military; it is thanks to you and your sacrifices that we have the freedoms we enjoy. We remember and give thanks.

This is only the second home night game the Cubs have ever played on a holiday; the other was on July 4, 2004, a Sunday night vs. the White Sox, when LaTroy Hawkins ruined a terrific Glendon Rusch start by allowing a game-tying homer to Carlos Lee in the top of the 9th. Todd Walker drew a bases-loaded walk off Damaso Marte in the bottom of the 9th to win it.

There is one other unique (and I use that word in its correct and literal sense: the only time) thing about this series: the Pirates have just finished an interleague series on the South Side vs. the White Sox. Thus they will spend nearly an entire week in Chicago playing both teams. In the 12 years since interleague play started in 1997, this is the only time a team has been scheduled this way in Chicago (it happened one other time due to a rainout, in June 2007 when the Astros played a series at the Cell and then stayed over on a Monday to play a makeup game vs. the Cubs). This has happened only one other time among all the other two-team markets (New York, Los Angeles, Bay Area) -- that was in 2001, when the Rockies played July 15-16-17 at Oakland, then stayed and played July 18-19 in San Francisco. It's surprising MLB doesn't do this more often, though given the way bizarre schedules are made these days, maybe it's not. In researching this, I found a wacky sequence in 2007 where Oakland played the Mets in a three-game series at Shea, then went to Cleveland for three, then immediately back to New York to play the Yankees from June 22-July 1. (Don't believe me? Look it up.)

More bizarro scheduling notes: last year the Cubs had played the Pirates 12 times by this calendar date; in 2009 this is the first meeting of the two teams. The Cubs have faced lefthanded starters only five times so far this year, fewest in the majors (with a 3-2 record); that will change in this series, as they will face two lefties (Paul Maholm tonight and Zach Duke on Wednesday afternoon), as well as the Dodgers' Randy Wolf on Thursday.

Today's Starting Pitchers


Ryan Dempster Cubs	vs.	Paul Maholm Pirates

3-3	W-L	3-1
4.40	ERA	3.30
49	SO	32
23	BB	18
7	HR	2
vs. Pit	--	vs. Cubs

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Ryan Dempster	3-3	9	9	0	0	0	0	57.1	50	29	28	7	23	49	4.40	1.27

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Paul Maholm	3-1	9	9	0	0	0	0	57.1	54	22	21	2	18	32	3.30	1.26

Paul Maholm has a 4-1 career record vs. the Cubs... but with an unsightly 6.32 ERA. A lot of that is from last year, when he threw 14 innings in two starts, allowing 10 earned runs (6.43 ERA). Alfonso Soriano is 6-for-17 (.353) with three homers vs. Maholm; Reed Johnson, who homered yesterday, is 4-for-6 with a double.

Ryan Dempster threw one of the best games of his 2008 season on April 8 in Pittsburgh, allowing only one hit over seven innings. Thanks to the bullpen (sound familiar?) the Cubs needed 15 innings to win that game. Dempster handles most of the Pirates pretty well; of their current roster only Nate McLouth and Adam LaRoche have homered off him and current Pirates are hitting only .250 (21-for-84) off Dempster.

Once again, the Cubs are on WGN with national exposure. This hasn't worked out too well for the last week. Maybe today will break that jinx. For today's other games see the MLB.com Mediacenter.

MLB.com Gameday

Baseball-reference.com game preview

SB Nation game preview

Overflow comment threads will post today at 8 pm, 9 pm and 9:45 pm CDT.

Discuss amongst yourselves.

tRA: Because you pitched better, and you deserve better.

RockiesMagicNumber — Wed, 20 May 2009 17:00:14 -0000

More photos » by Paul Abell - AP

Jason Hammel: Terrible, unlucky, or what?

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Have you ever watched a pitcher pitch a game, and walk out with an ERA of like 6, and you said to yourself "He did not pitch all that badly, what on earth happened there?" You figure he let a couple baserunners on via walk, struck out a good number, only sprayed a few singles, how on earth did he let 5 runs cross?

Well, we turn to FIP then, a pitching metric I introduced in an earlier Counting Rocks, which accounts for the elements of a game that a pitcher directly impacts, strikeouts, walks, and home runs. It's a pretty simple formula, I can do the math on my phone calculator.

Based on ERA, K9, BB9, HR9, and FIP, here are the pitchers we've played this season:

*Name*	*K/9*	*BB/9*	*K/BB*	*HR/9*	*ERA*	*FIP*
*Randy Flores*	6.75	0.00	1.00	0.00	0.00	1.72
*Jason Grilli*	11.57	3.86	3.00	0.64	2.57	2.86
*Jorge de la Rosa*	9.49	3.38	2.81	0.42	3.16	2.99
*Matt Daley*	7.27	4.15	1.75	0.00	4.15	3.34
*Manny Corpas*	5.40	1.62	3.33	0.54	7.02	3.34
*Ubaldo Jimenez*	8.02	4.50	1.78	0.20	4.30	3.55
*Huston Street*	9.92	1.65	6.00	1.65	3.86	3.96
*Glendon Rusch*	6.27	1.45	4.33	1.45	6.75	4.40
League Average	*7.06*	*3.85*	*1.83*	*1.00*	*4.46*	*4.46*
*Jason Marquis*	3.91	3.06	1.28	0.85	4.75	4.60
*Ryan Speier*	3.18	4.76	0.67	0.00	4.76	4.63
*Jason Hammel*	5.68	2.84	2.00	1.42	4.62	5.08
*Aaron Cook*	4.61	4.39	1.05	1.54	5.71	5.88
*Alan Embree*	4.09	4.09	1.00	1.64	4.91	6.04
*Franklin Morales*	10.13	1.13	9.00	3.38	3.38	6.22
*Matt Belisle*	5.28	1.76	3.00	2.35	7.63	6.22

Now just looking at these numbers, we could say "But Glendon Rusch had a below-league-average FIP, why would we let him go?!" Well, the pure stats guy might say that his FIP says he's good, and just make the assumption that defense let him down, BABIP screwed him, etc etc. But we all know that Rusch was a very hittable pitcher this year, despite his good K rate and low BB rate. How hittable though? Did he really deserve that ERA?

The problem is that a pitcher really can control more than just his K's, BB's, and HRs, but to a lesser extent than those 3 true outcomes. FIP still has a lot of use in looking at the more fundamental aspects of what a pitcher does, but it might not be the fairest indicator of a pitchers' performance.

So FIP clearly doesn't have all the answers. If it did, Manny Corpas would still be a downright solid pitcher for us, and Franklin Morales would be in the Springs still. Leaving a ball up in the zone is most definitely controllable by a pitcher, and while the end result is a far more variable event than a "true outcome," it's pretty obvious that the hittable pitchers are going to give up more runs than the not-as-hittable ones.

Because that variability is still going to be a factor in ERA, I still think that it's an inadequate measure of a pitcher's performance in a game. For example, Jason Hammel got more or less screwed by poor defense on Tuesday night, but it's not as if every ball in play past the Barmes error was an error as well. So all the runs were unearned, but as jrockies and Silverblood were commenting, some runs were more unearned than others.

The problem with ERA is that some pitchers are being rewarded or punished for events that aren't their faults. Should we say "good job Marquis" of Dexter dives for a blooper and makes the final out with the bases jacked? Should we curse Alan Embree if he gives up a similar blooper that falls between the two fielders? Probably not. ERA seems to almost be a team statistic, because a run that isn't a home run will involve the team rather than just the pitcher alone. Aaron Cook's runs and outs will come differently than those from Jorge De La Rosa, based on how they pitch and how the team reacts to how they pitch.

There needs to be a "should have been" ERA so we can compare what he actually did and what actually happened.

Welcome to tRA.

Join me after the jump and we'll get into it.

tRA was formulated by Graham MacAree, who is a writer for the SBNation blog Lookout Landing and a moderator at USS Mariner.

tRA is based on the concepts that wOBA is based on. Each offensive event is worth a certain amount of runs, and each defensive event is worth a certain numbers of outs. Tom Tango gave us this data by poring through years of game data and determined how many outs and how many runs occurred after each event. He also formulated how many runs each base/out situation was worth. Using that matrix there will give you a good idea on what run expectancies you should anticipate based on how many are on and how many outs are remaining.

For example, a strikeout is worth 1 out. A home run is worth 0 outs. But how many outs is, say, a fly ball worth? Based on 2008 data, a fly ball (to the outfield) resulted in an out 83% of the time, so we can infer that an outfield fly ball is worth 0.83 outs. However, just because an OFB is worth 0.83 outs does not mean that it's worth 0.17 runs. An OFB, in fact, is worth only 0.046 runs.

So now that we've established that each play is worth a certain number of runs and outs, we can go from there to begin to calculate the tRA.

Using the expected number of runs that a pitcher gives up, based on the run expectancies, and the number of expected outs the pitcher records, we can calculate an analogue to ERA by taking the expected number of runs per expected out (runs/outs) and multiply by 27.

So you're thinking "well that's great, you found ERA again" - and I don't blame you. But here's the thing about tRA that makes it great - it puts the pitcher in a neutral environment (because there are many park-adjustment factors to account for), and puts a neutral defense behind them (because all the run/out expectancies are based on the entire league's performances, so therefore it displays as an average rating), and rather than being the report card for how many runs the team gives up during a pitcher's outing, it actually rates the pitcher on what they let happen.

So similar to FIP, tRA is good as an indicator of how lucky/unlucky a pitcher is getting, in terms of bad defense, bloops, etc etc. But this time, we're not just nullifying hits, but rather, we're accounting for everything that happens, and giving credit to the pitcher for everything he does during the game. It's a better report card of what happened during a pitcher's outing.

So let's look at what tRA means to some of the Rockies' pitchers.

*Name*	*ERA*	*FIP*	*tRA*
*Aaron Cook*	5.71	5.88	6.42
*Alan Embree*	4.91	6.04	7.65
*Franklin Morales*	3.38	6.22	4.57
*Glendon Rusch*	6.75	4.40	4.73
*Huston Street*	3.86	3.96	2.81
*Jason Grilli*	2.57	2.86	2.73
*Jason Hammel*	4.62	5.08	6.38
*Jason Marquis*	4.75	4.60	4.70
*Jorge de la Rosa*	3.16	2.99	2.88
*Manny Corpas*	7.02	3.34	3.36
*Matt Belisle*	7.63	6.22	5.26
*Matt Daley*	4.15	3.34	1.85
*Randy Flores*	0.00	1.72	5.28
*Ryan Speier*	4.76	4.63	5.20
*Ubaldo Jimenez*	4.30	3.55	3.47

Again, what does this all mean?

Well, the thought is that while Ubaldo Jimenez is sporting a decent 4.30 ERA, were he pitching for the Neutral Planet Neutrals in Neutral Park with Neutral Defense behind him and the Neutral Neutralities batting against him, he'd have a 3.47 ERA. What Ubaldo has allowed to happen through his pitching will allow 3.47 runs per 27 outs. You'll also notice that tRA thinks Matt Daley is a stud so far, and it further solidifies the excellent start that Jorge De La Rosa has had.

So what this breaks down to is we've quantified the concept of "the box score may not show it, but [Pitcher] pitched a solid game".

How can we use it going forward? When we see a pitcher go through some struggles, we can still look at his tRA and see how it corresponds with his FIP and his ERA. We can now say "well, what he's done would give him an ERA of X.XX, but instead he actually has an ERA of Y.YY" and then we can all shake our hands miserably at the defense or the BABIP or whatever we want to blame.

tRA and wOBA won't ever be as easy to use as FIP and OPS, just because they involve a spreadsheet or internet access to get a handle on, while FIP or OPS can be eyeballed or at least figured out on that cheesy calculator in your cellphone. However, with the extra effort, they are numbers that can be taken more at face value rather than having to explain all the caveats and details that need to be considered in OPS and FIP.

There are a good number of metrics on the market anymore, and deciding which to use is difficult. I'm partial to Tango's work, because it's all based on actual occurrences, actual run totals, and real numbers. The metrics based on his studies are the most encompassing and include the most detail, and I'm pleased to be able to present them here on Purple Row.

A lot of my information was taken from http://www.statcorner.com, where you can get the current tRA data for not only major league pitchers, but also for the minors down through A ball (Asheville as well as Modesto).

That's all for this week, fair RowBots. I hope to see us citing wOBA's and tRA's sooner than later when complaining about how hittable Aaron Cook has been this season.

Friday's Frosty Mug

KLSnow — Fri, 15 May 2009 14:19:44 -0000

More photos » by Morry Gash - AP

7 months ago: Milwaukee Brewers' Bil Hall, left, is embraced by teammate Mike Cameron after hitting a two-run home run during the second inning of a baseball game against the Florida Marlins, Thursday, May 14, 2009, in Milwaukee. (AP Photo/Morry Gash)

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Some things to read while upgrading someone's cell phone.

It may not have looked like much. An eighth inning pinch-hit appearance ending in a strikeout. But with that K, the Mat Gamel era is upon us, and everyone seems to be talking about it:

He made Baseball America's list of ten potential impact rookies.
"The fact the Brewers recalled him a week prior to the start of any inter-league games signals he is up for good," according to FakeTeams.
He was eulogized in Nashville.
And his plane nearly ran out of fuel on the way to Milwaukee.

On the other side of the coin we have Brad Nelson, the organization's former #1 prospect who still has not announced whether he'll accept his assignment to Nashville. KIMT, his local TV station, was in town covering Nelson when he got the news Wednesday night.

Trevor Hoffman was one of the big stories in yesterday's game, pitching his ninth consecutive scoreless appearance en route to his eighth save. Adam McCalvy has a look at Hoffman's early dominance. Meanwhile, Brett Christopherson of the Appleton Post Crescent reminisces about Hoffman's days in the Midwest League.

Mike Rivera returned to the team yesterday, and Carlos Corporan was sent back down to Nashville to make room for him. Corporan appeared in just one game during his brief stint in Milwaukee, making him one of just three players to make one career appearance as a Brewer, and the first position player to do it. Obviously, Corporan is hoping to make more appearances at some point.

Marlins pitcher Josh Johnson had a rough outing yesterday and was pulled early. Today the Miami Herald is reporting Johnson was removed with weakness in his shoulder. It's not believed to be serious and he's expected to make his next start.

Yovani Gallardo will take the mound tonight, but the Brewers almost missed out on him entirely. The Official Site relives the 2004 draft, when the Brewers drafted Gallardo in the second round.

Speaking of the draft, Minor League Ball is preparing for their mock draft on June 6, and you can check in here or here to voice your opinion on what players or types of players the Brewers should be pursuing.

One can only hope this year's draft class will be as good as the class of 2002: eight pitchers from that class started games in the majors last night. Dave Bush (drafted #55 overall by the Blue Jays) is one of 23 pitchers drafted in that class that are currently experiencing success in the big leagues.

Meanwhile, Brett Lawrie checks in from the Midwest League with a blog post on the adjustment to playing every day, frustration and Guitar Hero Metallica.

Will Prince Fielder's physique prevent him from having the career he could have had? Fielder has slimmed down a bit this season, but this FanPost at Beyond the Box Score suggests Fielder's career will draw to an end early. A note in the comments mentions that Fielder's listed height and weight would give him a 35.4 BMI, about 11% higher than Kirby Puckett, the closest comparison. Or course, no one knows how close Fielder (or Puckett) actually were to their listed weights.

There's nothing holding Mark DiFelice back this season. After pitching a scoreless eighth yesterday, DiFelice is now 4-0 with a 2.02 ERA in 35.2 major league innings, and ESPN is projecting him to make the All Star Team. Not bad for a guy who didn't make it to the big leagues until 31 and had to go to the WBC to get noticed in spring training.

This is the kind of story that gets a team's fan base a reputation: If you're near something that you shouldn't vomit on, feel free to skip this story about the "negotiation" for Chris Coghlan's home run ball from Wednesday. (That story is all over the place now, but I found the link via Tom H.'s Twitter)

Buried in Scott Miller's latest column is this note: The Brewers are 17-6 since April 19, the best record in all of baseball.

With interleague play coming up, Baseball Reference has a look at 17 home/road matchups that haven't happened yet. The Brewers have visited every AL ballpark and hosted 13 of 14 AL teams, but are still waiting for the Rays to come to town.

Around the league:

D-Backs: Designated infielder Josh Wilson for assignment.
Nationals: Returned Rule 5 pick Terrell Young to the Reds.
Rockies: Placed Glendon Rusch on waivers.
Tigers: Placed Nate Robertson on the DL with a lower back strain.

So how many of these disabled list stints are legit? Yesterday, Shysterball wondered about some recent disabled list shenanigans, and Jayson Stark of ESPN followed up on it. He seems to have arrived at the conclusion that a doctor, given a reason to, can find something wrong with just about anyone. All of this came out on the same day the Astros placed Geoff Geary on the DL with ~~chronic ineffectiveness~~ biceps tendinitis.

Following up on something I mentioned yesterday: Umpire Paul Schrieber apologized for making contact with Magglio Ordonez on Wednesday. It doesn't look like he'll face any significant consequences for his actions.

How much of a major league curveball's action is real, and how much is simply an optical illusion? The Book blog has a pretty cool visual aid to help explain it.

Braden Looper is turning out to be a pretty good signing for the Brewers, but was he the best signing of a free agent starting pitcher this offseason? Jorge Says No! makes a pretty good case for Baltimore's Koji Uehara.

Speaking of transactions, El Lefty Malo has a look at players the Giants have traded away that have gone on to success in other organizations, including Carlos Villanueva. Villanueva was acquired for Wayne Franklin and Leo Estrella.

We, or maybe just I, complain a lot in this space about the MLB Blackout policy, but MLB.TV has been awarded a patent for the system they use to enforce it online.

Unfortunately, I'm still watching Baseball Tonight, but fortunately, I wasn't watching last night when Eduardo Perez dropped this chunk of knowledge:

And one thing I can tell you: baserunning, hitting, pitching -- and especially the bullpen -- is not only important in the National and the American League, but all around baseball.

I've heard the MLB Network alternative is better, but I have yet to see it for myself.

Oh, and apparently being a major league player has one more perk we didn't know about: When you're injured, you can hit on radiologists.

Drink up.

Chris Iannetta remains dreamy with grand slam, but Rockies fall 11-15 to the Astros.

Russ Oates — Thu, 14 May 2009 04:03:24 -0000

More photos » by Denis Poroy - AP

This is actually a photo of Chris Iannetta hitting his first grand slam of the season. Tonight, he hit another one in the Rockies' 11-15 loss. He's still dreamy.

Browse more photos »

This game featured a bucketload of fail for the pitchers. I mean, Jason Marquis (-.468 WPA) allowed nine runs on ten hits and three walks in 3 2/3 innings, and Glendon Rusch stayed in to save the bullpen by allowing six runs in 2 2/3 innings. Twenty four hits by Astros batters.

Anything good happen? Chris Iannetta hit a grand slam, his second of the year! He is so dreamy! Ian Stewart hit a two-run homer, his seventh, in the second inning. Ryan Spilborghs led that inning off with a triple and then scored on a Brad Hawpe single.

Oh, Troy Tulowitzki left the game with an elbow contusion and will be reevaluated tomorrow.

For the novelty of it, three runs were scored in each of the first seven innings.

Garrett Atkins: 0-4, 2 K.

The Rockies are now 13-19.

via www.fangraphs.com

Thanks to Poseidon's Fist, holly96, Rox Girl, Tom (RFTN), The Lodo Magic Man, walkoff59, ES46NE10, dogs, Jabberwocky, fantasyfencing, Business Socks, Teekalong, WolfMarauder, Chrysicat, Rockie4Ever, frightenedinmate#2, OrangeTorpedo, Rocktober 2007, Maris6161, El Paso Jeff, ALrockies, nodakroxfan, free7694, blakestlubers25, Purp McGirt, MohrPlease, xxxpickemgenius, Sandlotkid8, Charlie77, Redhawk, DbacksSkins, moomacher, indianrox, TuLoRocks2008, smokinRox for taking part in some or all of the terrible game.

Breaking Down the Bullpen

RockiesMagicNumber — Wed, 13 May 2009 17:00:14 -0000

More photos » by David Zalubowski - AP

After a tough start to the season, Huston Street has dialed in to be a anchoring member of the Colorado bullpen.

Browse more photos »

Who is the worst pitcher in our bullpen? Who is the best? Who is the most frustrating? What have they really been doing? Who's been good? Who's been poor? Who doesn't deserve their ERA? Who should probably have a higher ERA?

Interestingly enough, the answer to all of these questions is Matt Daley.

But seriously, the bullpen has been cause for a lot of talk. They're either lockdown or completely hittable. They're constantly used in the wrong spots. They're all terrible. They're all awesome. They're all simultaneously consistent, undependable, clutch, chokers, and Libertarians.

There's really no winning if you're the Colorado Bullpen right now.

Based on some of the concepts and numbers we've looked at in past CR columns, we're gonna break down the bullpen.

So let's answer all the questions above.

Who are the best/worst pitchers in the bullpen, according to:

ERA?

Best: Matt Daley, 1.29

Worst: Matt Belisle, 9.00

Now, you could easily argue that Daley is a benefactor of sample size in this case, but there's not much arguing with Belisle at this point.

FIP (ie, the worst if you were to take out the hits/balls in play)?

Best: Matt Daley, 3.18

Worst: Matt Belisle, 6.02

Well, Daley thus far has put his money where his mouth is. Again, short time up, but I'm enjoying it. Is anyone surprised by Belisle?

K/BB?

Best: Huston Street, 7.00

Worst: Ryan Speier, 0.67

Worst active: Alan Embree, 1.33

Sometimes, strikeouts and walks are all you care about with a reliever, and if you can just look at that, Street has been magnificent. Embree? Not so much. But we should be getting better out of him sooner, as he's performing about 3 K's/9 lower than his career norms.

Most hittable (excluding homers)?

Best: Matt Daley, .127 BABIP

Worst: Manny Corpas, .376 BABIP

League Average: about .306

I'll go ahead and put sample size to rest, or else we'd just be throwing this article away anyhow. Daley's been virtually unhittable thus far, but he's due to start giving up some pokes pretty quick here. Corpas has been downright hittable, and while he's hardly walked anyone, he hasn't needed to. But we know this.

Most hittable in terms of solid contact (most line drives)?

Now this one was really interesting, so I'll mix it up a bit.

Worst: Alan Embree, 32.1% LD

Best: Matt Daley has yet to give up a well-struck hit, so let's go with the next guy

2nd Best: Matt Belisle, 15.9%

League Average: 19.15% (just for reference)

This is somewhat baffling. How is Belisle this bad, and yet nobody's even making real solid contact off of him? How is Embree getting away with giving up this much good contact? Well, as the adage goes, hit 'em where they ain't.

Stranding Runners?

Best: Jason Grilli, 95.6% LOB

Worst: (here's a shock) Matt Belisle, 50.6% LOB

Grilli's 11+ K/9 probably helps that 95.6 LOB%.

Playing to our strengths best? (GB%)

Best: Manny Corpas, 51% GB

Worst: Glendon Rusch, 32.1% GB

But then again, we knew this as well.

So who is the best? Who is the worst?

Well, I'd say our weakest pitcher is still Matt Belisle, and while I wish we had a starting spot for him (he's pitched out of a rotation his entire career, so this is a big transition for him - not meant as an excuse, just an explanation - and I think he'd be doing better if he wasn't looking at 3 outs an outing, etc), he really just hasn't been getting the job done in about any aspect of the game. Except for the weak contact part, I guess. Best? Well, Daley's looking nice thus far, but both Corpas and Street have been plagued by high BABIP while sporting excellent K/BB (Corpas at 3.50).

Now, there's one last thing to look at. ERA-FIP is a good indicator of who is getting good defensive help/benefitting the most/least from balls in play.

Who deserves their ERA?

The least: Matt Belisle, 2.98 E-F

Matt has been awful, but not 9.00 ERA awful. More like 6.02 awful.

Which is totally less awful.

The Next Least (leaving Daley out of this again): Jason Grilli, -1.78 E-F

Grilli's still been good, but not 1.69 ERA good. He's right around 3.47 FIP, which is still very good, just not "Holy Crap is that Mo Rivera?!"

The most: Huston Street, 0.27 E-F (actually it's Speier at 0.17 E-F, but I can't make as many points about Spy at this point)

Street may be putting up all the K's and none of the BBs, but his HR rate is over 2.00/9, and that's really unacceptable from any pitcher. It's really killing his FIP, his ERA, and his role as the solidifying factor in the bullpen. It should be noted, though, that over Street's past 11 games (the split baseball-reference gave me was 28 days), Street's given up a bomb, struck out 12, and walked 1, good for a 2.45 FIP and a 2.53 ERA.

Join me after the jump for the data, and a certain someone we may be forgetting...

Just so you can see what I've been blathering about, here's a table of relief pitcher stats:

Name	K/9	BB/9	K/BB	HR/9	AVG	WHIP	BABIP	LOB%	ERA	FIP	E-F
Alan Embree	4.00	3.00	1.33	1.00	0.216	1.11	.219	58.1%	4.00	4.74	-0.74
Glendon Rusch	6.19	1.69	3.67	1.69	0.338	1.63	.370	78.0%	4.50	4.81	-0.31
Huston Street	9.45	1.35	7.00	2.03	0.299	1.35	.355	79.7%	4.73	4.46	0.27
Jason Grilli	11.81	5.06	2.33	0.84	0.23	1.41	.332	95.6%	1.69	3.47	-1.78
Manny Corpas	4.61	1.32	3.50	0.66	0.342	1.61	.376	68.0%	5.27	3.55	1.72
Matt Belisle	5.25	2.25	2.33	2.25	0.334	1.67	.343	50.6%	9.00	6.02	2.98
Matt Daley	7.71	3.86	2.00	0.00	0.092	0.71	.127	83.3%	1.29	3.18	-1.90
Ryan Speier	3.18	4.76	0.67	0.00	0.273	1.59	.300	70.0%	4.76	4.60	0.17

Name	GB/FB	LD%	GB%	FB%	IFFB%	HR/FB
Alan Embree	1.38	32.1%	39.3%	28.6%	12.5%	12.5%
Glendon Rusch	0.72	23.2%	32.1%	44.6%	8.0%	12.0%
Huston Street	0.94	19.5%	39.0%	41.5%	11.8%	17.6%
Jason Grilli	0.91	19.2%	38.5%	42.3%	0.0%	9.1%
Manny Corpas	2.08	24.5%	51.0%	24.5%	0.0%	8.3%
Matt Belisle	0.95	15.9%	40.9%	43.2%	21.1%	15.8%
Matt Daley	0.60	0.0%	37.5%	62.5%	40.0%	0.0%
Ryan Speier	4.00	16.7%	66.7%	16.7%	33.3%	0.0%

There is still one X-Factor to be considered, however.

Taylor Buchholz

There's been a lot of talk about Buchholz' return, specifically during games where Belisle blows it up or something along those lines. Because we all love Taylor, let's all take a look at his 2008 and see what we can glean from that:

Buchholz has always been a high-control-good-strikeout pitcher. Nothing mindblowing in the strikeout department, but he seriously bumped his rate into solid range that compares to Matt Cain, Kevin Gregg, and Roy Halladay. His BB rate took a slight jump from 2007, but nothing that would classify him as "wild".

Projections were relatively high on him as well. They more or less consolidated to suggest a K9 of 7.17, BB9 of 2.70, and a HR9 of 0.92, all leading to a suggested FIP of 3.84. Pretty solid numbers there in general.

I don't think anyone was honestly expecting a repeat of the 2.17 ERA he posted in 2008, as a .234 BABIP is hardly sustainable. Curiously though, his LD% actually jumped about 3% and his GB% dropped around 9%, yet he still managed that ERA. If he were posting those rate stats mentioned above today, he'd be 4th in K9, 5th in BB9, 3rd in HR9, and 4th in FIP. If you remove Matt Daley from the equation you could bump Buchholz up a ranking for each of those.

But I hereby want to caution everyone regarding Buchholz' eventual return: He's coming off of injury problems, he's probably not going to be in 2008 form. While the projections are all favorable, they obviously aren't taking into account the effects of injury/rehab. Don't get me wrong, I want to see him come in and start blowing guys away again. But while we've all had patience rammed down our throats this season, with Buchholz, I'm sure it will be a bit easier to swallow.

---

To conclude, we can kind of see where the problems are in the pen just from watching. Belisle and Corpas are hittable. Grilli is wild, but dangerous. Embree's been unimpressive. Matt Daley may just be the new [elite relief pitcher here]. Ok maybe not the last one. We need to find some sort of coherence in the pen, and I still don't think establishing roles is going to do that. Play matchups, play splits, play the numbers.

Close with Street if we have to say "Closer is our best guy!" but don't fear bringing him in in the 8th.

Grilli and Rusch are good guys to bring in to clean up a jam.

Belisle and Embree probably need to start their own innings.

Corpas is stil our best groundball guy.

It may be frustrating sometimes, but this isn't an awful bullpen. It may just be that it's utilized incorrectly.

Chris Iannetta, dreamy as ever, leads Rockies past Padres, 9-6

Russ Oates — Tue, 05 May 2009 05:26:37 -0000

More photos » by Denis Poroy - AP

Chris Iannetta is dreamy as he hits tonight's grand slam.

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So I was writing a tag for this story. It was "dreamy". There are three tags that already use "dreamy." One of them is "zack greinke is dreamy." But no "chris iannetta is dreamy"? Well, I took care of that. Chris Iannetta is more dreamy than Zack Greinke.

Anyway, Chris Iannetta put the Rockies ahead 9-6 on his seventh-inning grand slam off of Cla Meredith (who entered once the bases were loaded). That completely turned the game in favor of the Rockies.

via www.fangraphs.com

Chris Iannetta was clutch. That AB for Dreamy had a leverage index of 4.69. He came through when it counted the most, adding .387 to his .400 WPA for the game. Dude was dreamy and the bringer of doom this game. Troy Tulowitzki had an RBI double and a sac fly, while Todd Helton reached bases four times (two hits, two walks).

The pitching also turned in some solid performances tonight. The Padres were held to four hits, three off of Jorge De La Rosa. After De La Rosa left, Glendon Rusch, Matt Daley, Alan Embree, and Huston Street held the Padres to one hit over the last four innings.

The Rockies are now 10-14.

Thanks to Silverblood, Tom (RFTN), oo_nrb, The Lodo Magic Man, rockhead, WolfMarauder, pierzynskirules, Hizilla, holly96, Jester76, Poseidon's Fist, PioneerSkies, free7694, GoRoxGo, befizzle, RockiesMagicNumber, MohrPlease, Rox Girl, Sandlotkid8, Redhawk, OrangeTorpedo, dds_dave, nodakroxfan, Chrysicat, frightenedinmate#2, Rockie4Ever, ejskater, jimmyski, TehChamp, moomacher, Charlie77, fantasyfencing, AtkinsandTulofan, coolopotamous, arpagamos, Foxhole Atheist, PinchHitLancePainter, SC Memphis Raines, WalkInRight, chem, TuLoRocks2008, and Purp McGirt for the hilarity.

Dollars and Sense Part Three: Outlier Salaries and Rockies ODP Analysis

Jabberwocky — Thu, 30 Apr 2009 21:00:01 -0000

More photos » by Reinhold Matay - AP

Despite his recent steroid troubles and injured hip, A-Rod has plenty of reasons to smile. His $33 million salary for 2009 is the highest in baseball--and just $4 million less than the Marlins' entire payroll.

Browse more photos »

After looking at MLB Opening Day payrolls by average team salary and then by average player salary, this session of PR Academy will first focus on the high and low salaries in MLB and then will look closely at the Colorado Rockies' payroll distribution in 2009 and beyond.

Once again, the salary data used in this report is courtesy of the USA Today Salary Database. The payroll data does not include money paid or received in trades or for players who have been released, such as Jason Marquis for the Rockies or Gary Sheffield (released by the Tigers) this year. There's a lot to discuss, so let's get right to it!

Outlier Salaries

As Orwell would put it, all animals are equal, but some animals are more equal than others. In the case of baseball, a select few players are much more equal than the mere mortals that occupy the majority of Opening Day roster slots, at least according to salary distribution. The problem with just looking at average (or even median) player salary data is that one misses the outrageous outlier salaries that superstar players in this day and age command. The Biz of Baseball's Maury Brown details in two charts, reproduced here, the top ten salaries in the AL and NL:

Top 10 Salaries - American League
Player	Salary	Club	Division
†Alex Rodriguez	$33,000,000	Yankees	AL East
Derek Jeter	$21,600,000	Yankees	AL East
Mark Teixeira	$20,625,000	Yankees	AL East
Magglio Ordonez	$18,971,596	Tigers	AL Central
Torii Hunter	$18,000,000	Angels	AL West
†Ichiro Suzuki	$18,000,000	Mariners	AL West
A.J. Burnett	$16,500,000	Yankees	AL East
C.C. Sabathia	$15,285,714	Yankees	AL East
Vladimir Guerrero	$15,000,000	Angels	AL West
Mariano Rivera	$15,000,000	Yankees	AL East

Top 10 Salaries - National League
Player	Salary	Club	Division
Manny Ramirez	$23,854,494	Dodgers	NL West
Carlos Beltran	$19,243,683	Mets	NL East
Carlos Lee	$19,000,000	Astros	NL Central
Johan Santana	$18,876,139	Mets	NL East
Carlos Zambrano	$18,750,000	Cubs	NL Central
Barry Zito	$18,500,000	Giants	NL West
Alfonso Soriano	$17,000,000	Cubs	NL Central
Aramis Ramirez	$16,900,000	Cubs	NL Central
Todd Helton	$16,600,000	Rockies	NL West
† Tim Hudson	$15,500,000	Braves	NL East

† Started season on DL

So what do we learn from these charts? Well, first of all, the Yankees dominate the list of top salaries in the AL, grabbing six of the list's ten spots. In fact, George Steinbrenner's club has three of MLB's five best compensated players this year. They also show just how out of control that salary escalation has gotten in recent years--I mean, $18.5 million for one year of Barry Zito? The world is going mad.

Analysis of these lists shows that the average top 10 player in the AL is paid $19,198,231 while a similar NL player is paid only $18,422,432--a difference of $775,799 (what a travesty!). Of course, these results are largely skewed by the outlier among outliers--A-Rod's obscene $33 million salary for 2009.

In fact, the most richly rewarded of players are being given a greatly disproportionate share of the 2009 ODP pie. As Brown notes, there are 86 players in MLB (about 11% of 818) who will earn over $10 million this year. Adding their salaries up, these 86 players will earn a total of $1,178,536,759 this year! In other words, 11% of players will receive 44% of MLB's total payroll expenditure this year. Unsurprisingly, teams like the Yankees (9), Cubs (6), and Mets (5) have several players on this list.

NL West Outlier Analysis

To put this in context, the Yankees by themselves have more such players than the entire NL West (7)--with the Rockies having Todd Helton as their lone eight-figure earner. The Dodgers have four eight figure earners (Manny Ramirez, Jason Schmidt, Hiroki Kuroda, and Juan Pierre--seriously) while the Giants (Barry Zito), Padres (Jake Peavy) and Diamondbacks (Eric Byrnes) have only one each.

Extrapolating this data even further, these high earners in the NL West earn large portions of their team's payroll expenditure (or in the case of Jason Schmidt, don't earn it). Helton's $16.6 million salary this year is 22.1% of the Rockies' entire ODP in 2009. Manny Ramirez represents 23.7% of the Dodgers' payroll, while Schmidt (15.1%), Kuroda (12.3%), and Pierre (10%) also are significant investments--in all the Dodgers are paying 61% of their payroll to these four players. Barry Zito represents 22.5% of the Giants' ODP, while Jake Peavy's number with the Padres is 25.7% and Byrnes is 15.9% for the D-Backs.

This just proves the point that baseball payrolls are often top-heavy. To invest big money long-term even on a star player means that a team takes on huge payroll risk in future years should that player not perform. For instance, because of his steep decline in production from the time he signed his 9 year, $142 million contract in 2001, Todd Helton's $16.6 million salary for 2009 represents a significant financial albatross for the Rockies. Helton's contract is a perfect example of a team taking on payroll risk and having it coming back to bite them big time. Big market teams such as the Yankees and Mets are willing and able to absorb this increased payroll risk for the high reward that these highly-compensated players can provide to a team.

The Other End of the Spectrum

On the other side of the coin from these high earners, 68 players (8.31%) were compensated at the major league minimum ($400,000). Lower salaried teams like the Marlins (10), Athletics (6), and Padres (5) had a great % of these players. What was surprising to me initially was that the Rockies were one of just six teams to not pay any player the minimum this year. However, I soon realized after looking at the team's contracts that the Rockies were paying ten players on their active roster salaries that barely exceeded the minimum threshold. For example, Dexter Fowler is making $401,000 this year--technically higher than the minimum but in practice much the same.

Join me after the jump as I break down Colorado's ODP distribution in 2009 and beyond.

Colorado Rockies Opening Day Payroll Analysis

As of Opening Day the Colorado Rockies were paying a major league salary to 27 players (Jeff Francis and Taylor Buchholz being on the DL), totaling $75,201,000 (again, not counting the $875,000 Marquis credit). On a per player basis, the year's edition of the Rockies has an average salary of $2,785,222. In addition to their Colorado Rockies salary breakdown, which I've used in past sessions, Cot's Baseball Contracts once again came through for me here, providing an awesome salary obligation spreadsheet for the 2009-2013 time frame.

What can this handy and comprehensive spreadsheet tell us about the financial state of the Rockies? While the spreadsheet isn't completely accurate (Manny Corpas, for instance has correct contract details but this is not shown from 2010 to 2013) or exactly up to date, given the constant roster tinkering necessary in MLB due to injuries, the possibilities of this resource are far-reaching and powerful. For instance, from the spreadsheet we can see that the Rockies have already committed $44,058,000 to next year's salary figure--and that's with only five players under contract! That number isn't counting the 13 players on the 25 man roster that will be arbitration eligible next year! Assuming the standard 172% raise per player that came with arbitration filing this year, the Rockies' payroll could balloon even further beyond this year's number (and continue to do so in subsequent years)...without adding any free agent of significance to the team. As the Monforts would tell us, this level of payroll increase is simply not sustainable or practical.

Roster Building, Rockies-Style

It is dilemmas like this that lead mid-market teams like the Rockies to have to make tough decisions about which of their young players and prospects to keep and which they should try to get the most out of before either letting them go elsewhere or trading them for replacement prospects. Over the last few years the Rockies have adopted the strategy of signing several players they saw as key contributors to long-term deals that bought out their remaining arbitration years and even some free agency time--meeting with varying degrees of success.

The inherent risk with that strategy is that situations can change in a very short amount of time. When Jeff Francis signed his 4 year, $13.25 million contract after 2006, it was seen as a very smart move for the team and a bit of a bargain. Francis responded with an excellent 2007 campaign, but after a rocky injury-filled 2008 Jeff may never pitch at a major league level again. Manny Corpas is a similar example of this. When the Rockies signed Corpas to a 4 year, $8 million deal after 2007, they thought they were getting a dominant closer in his prime. Since, Manny has looked more like a middle reliever than a closer. Rockies fans can only hope that Troy Tulowitzki (6 years, $31 million) doesn't become Bobby Crosby and instead fulfills his great promise, or that Ubaldo Jimenez (4 years, $10 million) becomes the ace he is projected to be. Aaron Cook was great last year, but he has 3 years and $30 million left on his contract--a lot can go wrong in that time period.

Another risk to this strategy is getting married to mediocre talent--a phrase that has been bandied around this blog more than once. Just because a player has performed well or memorably for you over a short period of time does not mean that he is the best fit for your team on a long-term basis. There may very well be a player out there who will perform the same tasks better and more cheaply than "your guy". Garrett Atkins is a perfect example of a "your guy"--a player that can be replaced cheaply and with a better overall player within the system, and one that has some value to other teams. Now I'm not exactly saying that Atkins is mediocre, only that he's not the best option for the Rockies at this point.

The same goes for Brad Hawpe and Todd Helton, but we've got them locked into our starting lineup for at least two (Hawpe) or three (Helton) more years. As RMN is quick to point out, Hawpe would fit much better in the Rockies' lineup as a first baseman--giving playing time to the cheaper, more defensively-oriented outfield of Smith, Fowler, and Spilborghs. However, due to this marriage O'Dowd has made with Hawpe (good, patient hitter but horrible fielder) and Helton (great hitter and clubhouse presence, but lacks power at this stage in his career), this idealized lineup is little more than a pipe dream for Rockies fans at this point.

Colorado Rockies Contract Breakdown

Taking all of these roster building risks into account, I've broken down the 27 players on the Rockies' ODP by contracts and what I see for the future. For each player I've included what they're being paid this year and what they're owed after the 2009 season. Remember, this is just the ODP--not including players like Belisle, and Daley who are now on the roster. However, due to the fact that Juan Morillo is no longer on the roster, I'll analyze Jason Hammel instead.

Albatrosses (Contracts that hurt now and in the future)

Todd Helton: $16.6 million (2 years, $35.1 million plus $4.6 million buyout after 2011). This kind of contract absolutely kills teams for years to come.

Jeff Francis: $3.875 million (1 year, $5.875 million for what is likely going to be very little or limited production). Injuries are a fact of life, and it is unfortunate that it happened to the Rockies here.

Brad Hawpe: $5.5 million (1 year, $7.5 million plus a $10 million club option or $500k buyout). As I've stated above, Brad is ill-suited for the duties he's being given as an outfielder and serves as an organizational block to Seth Smith, Matt Murton, and Carlos Gonzalez among others.

Anchors (Expensive this year, but will soon be lifted)

Jason Marquis: $9.875 million (One year deal)--the Rockies are effectively paying $9 million this year for Marquis since Vizcaino is a sunk cost for Colorado. He has provided a good performance this year, but is not worth $9 million.

Garrett Atkins: $7.5 million (one year of arbitration left). Atkins has gone into a pretty steep decline of late at the plate, is blocking Ian Stewart, and is really slow. I hope he's not on the books next year.

Yorvit Torrealba: $3.5 million. Many Rowbots will rejoice once Torrealba has completed his contract. Yorvit is a decent back-up catcher, but he's not worth anywhere close to what he's being paid this year.

Alan Embree: $2 million plus a $250k buyout after the year. Embree is a middle reliever that doesn't qualify as a LOOGY--an expensive replaceable part.

Glendon Rusch: $750k. He's not actually too expensive, but his role as a long man is fungible and he will probably be with the Rockies for this year only.

We'll See (Payroll risk in play, but reward potential)

Aaron Cook: $9.583 million (2 years, $20.5 million plus $11 million mutual option or $500k buyout). Again, Cookie was great last year, and if he could sustain that level of production over the life of the contract he'll be worth it. However, with that high of a salary comes a bunch of payroll risk.

Troy Tulowitzki: $1 million (4 years, $27.25 million plus $15 million club option or $2 million buyout). While Tulowitzki is young, provides excellent defense, leadership, and a big bat--he has been a slow starter this year and last, while having some nagging injuries leading to the inevitable Bobby Crosby comparisons. Most likely this contract will be just fine but the bust potential is still there for the Rockies.

Manny Corpas: $800k (2 years, $6.25 million plus club options of $6 million and $8 million--or buyouts of $250k and $500k). The Rockies' financial commitment into Corpas isn't that significant, but if Manny keeps pitching ineffectively, the Rockies may have to send him back to AAA.

Ubaldo Jimenez: $750k (3 years, $8.25 million with $5.75 and $8 million options, each with a $1 million buyout). I'm not too worried about this contract, as the financial outlay isn't too significant and I think that Ubaldo will pitch well above his salary, but the Jeff Francis corollary is still in effect here.

Short-term Arbitration Eligible (Young players who, while fairly cheap, are on their way out soon--no long term deal--or should be, in my opinion)

Clint Barmes: $1.625 million (2 arbitration years). Deer meat is bordering on being overpaid now. While nice to have as a bench/utility player, he is miscast as a starter (outside of Coors Field) and should be paid as a bench/depth guy.

Jason Grilli: $800k (2 arbitration years). Middle relief performance is fungible, as well as highly variable from year to year. This year, Grilli has been good, but at any time he could turn into Matt Herges 2008 edition.

Long-Term Arbitration Eligible (They could, and should, factor into the team's future plans)

Huston Street: $4.5 million (1 arbitration year). I was flipping back and forth on Street, as he will be compensated pretty well this year and likely next. He does provide a proven end of game reliever--though in my opinion the closer position is severely overrated. The PR hit the Rockies would take for dumping Street after one year would also be pretty damaging (perceived return on Holliday). This one could go either way.

Jorge De La Rosa: $2 million (1 arbitration year). De La Rosa shows great promise, and thus far has harnessed his fantastic stuff pretty well this year. Lefty starters throwing in the 90s don't grow on trees, you know.

Taylor Buchholz: $1,055,000 (3 arbitration years due to his Super Two status). Remember what I said about middle relief and Jason Grilli? Well, Buchholz is a more valuable set-up man that I can see having value for the long term.

Not Arbitration Eligible (Soon to be--or should be--gone edition). These players all have three arbitration years remaining.

Jeff Baker: $415k. Baker does bring some good things to the table (power bat off the bench, can play several positions), but he is not only a very streaky player but also is taking a roster spot that could be given to a more consistent contributor.

Ryan Spilborghs: $415k: This was a very tough decision, but Spilly has been cast as a fourth outfielder despite his excellent play. It will ultimately come between him and Seth Smith for a place in the future roster due to the expected emergence of Carlos Gonzalez in the near future. I believe that the Rockies will choose Smith as he is younger by a couple of years and doesn't have Scott Boras as an agent.

Omar Quintanilla: $408k. Omar is a slick fielder at three positions, but he is very replaceable as a player and doesn't pull his weight offensively.

Ryan Speier: $407k. See Grilli, Jason--middle relief is fungible

Keepers (Young players with three arbitration years remaining that are part of the Rockies' long term plans)

Jason Hammel: $422k. Depending on how Hammel pitches in his next few starts, he could really go either way here. If he develops into a durable starter then he should definitely be in the Rockies' future plans.

Chris Iannetta: $415k. No debate here, CDI is a stud and should be locked up for several years--with an eye on an eventual move to first base.

Ian Stewart: $404k. Stewart is a dynamic player on offense and should be the Rockies' third baseman for the next several years.

Seth Smith: $403k. See Spilborghs, Ryan--Smith is a good, patient bat off the bench as well as a more than adequate outfielder.

Franklin Morales: $402k. If Morales can harness his stuff and show some consistency, I can definitely foresee a Ubaldo Jimenez-type deal in the near future for Morales.

Dexter Fowler: $401k. Dexter is everything you want to see in a center fielder, and the Rockies would do well to lock him up early and for several years.

That's all I've got for now--I've run out of steam after 3000 words--but in the future I'll expand my analysis past the surface-level financial impact of the Rockies' ODP.

Sources and Additional Reading

USA Today Salary Database, USA Today

Individual Player Salary Analysis, the incomparable Maury Brown

Team ODPs by Player, Maury Brown (pdf)

Cot's Contracts, Jeff Euston

Rockies Payroll Obligation Spreadsheet, Cot's Contracts

Post-Arbitration Salary Analysis, Bob Warja (Bleacher Report)