SB Nation - Travis Ishikawa

Hanson Named Topps Rookie All-Star

cbwilk — Wed, 25 Nov 2009 18:55:26 -0000

More photos » by John Bazemore - AP

Tommy Hanson was 11-4 with a 2.89 ERA after joining Atlanta in June.

Braves rookie Tommy Hanson, who finished third in the voting for the National League Rookie of the Year Award, was named to Topps' 51st Rookie All-Star team, along with the two players who finished ahead of him in the award voting, Florida outfielder Chris Coghlan and Philadelphia pitcher JA Happ.

The rest of the player selected include Mets' catcher Omir Santos, Giants first baseman Travis Ishikawa, White Sox second baseman Chris Getz and third baseman Gordon Beckham, Rangers shortstop (and former Braves prospect) Elvis Andrus, Pirates outfielder Andrew McCutchen and Orioles outfielder Nolan Reimold.

The accolade is just another sign of how good Hanson was this year for Atlanta. I've personally had the pleasure of seeing all of the players on this All-Star team at one point or another in their Minor League career, with the exception of Beckham, and I think that Hanson has by far the best chance to be a long-term star player in the Major League, with McCutchen as a solid second.

Offseason Priorities for the Giants, Part II: First Base

Grant — Wed, 18 Nov 2009 20:44:06 -0000

Supposedly, the easiest position at which to find a hitter is first base. Alas, we are Giants fans. It's a little disingenuous to say there's a post-Will curse on the organization -- J.T. Snow did provide a couple of fantastic years to bookend the meh -- but there hasn't been a lot of offense from first base since Will Clark left. The Sabean-led Giants are the kind of organization that can look at Shea Hillenbrand and Ryan Garko, and say, man, now those guys are clearly better than what we have on the roster.

And while Garko was a small sample size disaster after coming over, he still represents the best first baseman on the roster. As a right-handed guy with limited defensive skills, it'd be nice to have a lefty-swinging slick fielding complement to Garko. Like, oh, Travis Ishikawa. So there it is: the Giants are totally set at first base. Yet it feels like it should be a priority to find a new, shiny first baseman. This feeling is explained by the When You Have Aaron Rowand, Edgar Renteria, Nate Schierholtz, and Eugenio Velez Penciled in for a Lot of At-Bats Theorem, which posits:

When you have Aaron Rowand, Edgar Renteria, Nate Schierholtz, and Eugenio Velez penciled in for a lot of at-bats, you really, really, really want to find some more offense wherever you can.

Third? We're cool. Catcher? Should be fine if we keep our expectations fairly low. Second? Better than last year, at least. The rest of the the positions are filled by the goofs who give the theorem its name...except first base. By default, first base is the Giants' best chance to upgrade a sorry offense, even though it's one of the positions with the best incumbent hitter. Well, the best chance is to find any non-Velez to play left, but then that kind of glib talk just ignores Velez's 100 at-bats of mid summer greatness last year, which are 100 at-bats that mean more than the other 3000 in his professional career. Come on, now. Let's focus.

Nick Johnson provides on-base gettin'. Carlos Delgado or Troy Glaus might provide home run hittin' if they're healthy. Russell Branyan might be one of the offseason's best bargains, or he could be Damon Minor with a bigger house. There are options -- all risky, often appealing. They'd require that the Giants non-tender Ryan Garko, most likely. Here's a Scott Barnes, Indians. We're now even for '54.

It just seems like a shame, though, that the Giants have the best first base option since J.T. Snow smoked some of Wade Boggs's nail clippings during the 2004 All-Star break, and that's where we have to hope for an offensive upgrade. Not to say that Garko is anything special -- he's likely to be overpaid for what he produces, which isn't a whole lot for a first baseman. The overall offense would probably be better served by finding an improvement at short or in the outfield, but unless the Giants want to dish out a Zito-sized deal to Matt Holliday, it makes more sense to focus on the myriad of reasonable improvements at first base.

If the Giants start 2010 with Garko as the starting first baseman, that's just fine. But only if there are newly acquired productive hitters around him.

NL West in Review: 1st Basemen

Poseidon's Fist — Mon, 26 Oct 2009 18:00:33 -0000

Introduction

Baseball is still being played out there somewhere, but for the Rockies, it is sadly the offseason. Before the hot stove really heats up and we start looking forward to 2010, I thought I would run a series reflecting on the great season 2009 was.

Over the next three months or so, I will be breaking down each of the five teams, position-by-position, starting today with first base. The series will be comparable to what Brendan Scolari did for TrueBlueLA before the season, although it will be using actual performance rather than projections.

Method

These articles will indeed utilize WAR heavily. I understand SABR stats have been contentious around here lately; however, if you're one of those fans who thinks "who cares?" to wOBA and WAR, don't just tune this all out. I have included all traditional statistics as well, so you are welcome to take or leave any information presented as desired.

Positional splits for traditional statistics can be found anywhere. However, value statistics like WAR and wRAA are not broken down anywhere for each player's ABs by position (at least that I have found). Thus, I had to compute them on my own so that, for instance, only Garrett Atkins' ABs as a 1B count here. The methods for doing this are clearly outlined by Purple Row's own Jabberwocky right here.

UPDATE: After posting, many noted that the PA's I reported from Fangraphs were inconsistent. After contacting David Appelman, I confirmed that those PA's represent PA in games where the player played first base at one time, not necessarily at the time of the PA. I reworked everything from the Baseball-Reference database.

In addition, I reworked the park factors. Instead of utilizing an assumed universal linear weight, I used Statcorner's component factor for each offensive event for home games (I assumed away games yielded a net neutral effect). This is not how Fangraphs does park effects pertaining to WAR, so their numbers will look different. Appelman told me they will have value position splits this offseason, perhaps by February, in time for this series to be over. Note that these numbers are not perfect. They are best used for window-shopping comparison rather than hard evidence.

Results

First base is a classic premium offense position, but the 25 men that played first base this season in the division are collectively uninspiring (save a couple). Brendan Scolari's projections had the Padres finishing first, followed by the Rockies, Dodgers, Diamondbacks and Giants. Here's how the five teams shook out in 2009 (wOBA* is my park-adjusted wOBA):


Teams	Players	Avg	HR	RBI	OBP	SLG	wOBA*	WAR
1. San Diego	4	.275	41	103	.403	.539	.421	6.45
2. Colorado	4	.310	17	97	.403	.467	.388	4.65
3. Los Angeles	3	.283	13	100	.357	.397	.342	1.92
4. San Francisco	6	.271	17	80	.328	.405	.327	1.81
5. Arizona	8	.228	19	88	.321	.396	.311	-0.90

Aside from Arizona's complete collapse, we saw essentially what was expected. On the strength of Adrian Gonzalez' stellar season, the Padres trounced the rest of the division at first base. Pablo Sandoval's offense and Travis Ishikawa's glove (worth one whole win?) almost pushed the Giants past Los Angeles, but not quite.

The Diamondbacks utilized eight different men at first, with only Mark Reynolds capable of hitting north of .222. It isn't surprising then that the Diamondbacks were collectively below replacement value at first base. That's right - they could have perhaps gotten more production at first had they signed Joe Koshansky out of spring training and given him the job.

For a graphical comparison, here are the five teams plotted by component RAR (Runs Above Replacement, or WAR times 10).

Since we are comparing only first base, every team as a positional RAR of -12.5. Replacement is essentially the same for each team, just slightly varied, as it is defined as 20/600*PA. The definition is explained here.

For a closer look at each team and each player, take the jump.

Instead of posting the entire database of all 25 first baseman, here are the top and bottom five:

Rank	Player	Team	PA	Avg	HR	RBI	OBP	SLG	wOBA*	UZR	WAR
1	Adrian Gonzalez	SDP	670	.275	39	97	.407	.546	.426	4.3	5.18
2	Todd Helton	COL	643	.325	15	86	.415	.489	.399	-1.4	3.75
3	James Loney	LAD	645	.384	13	90	.359	.403	.346	0.8	1.73
4	Travis Ishikawa	SFG	349	.283	9	39	.330	.393	.322	10.4	1.31
5	Pablo Sandoval	SFG	97	.385	5	17	.423	.648	.480	-0.1	1.09
~	~	~	~	~	~	~	~	~	~	~	~
21	Jeff Baker	COL	4	.000	0	0	.000	.000	.000	-	-0.08
22	Ryan Garko	SFG	120	.250	2	12	.325	.352	.289	-1.7	-0.35
23	Rich Aurilia	SFG	73	.174	0	9	.188	.171	.236	2.8	-0.38
24	Chad Tracy	AZ	230	.221	4	28	.291	.348	.282	0.3	-0.40
25	Brandon Allen	AZ	115	.204	4	14	.287	.388	.287	-4.2	-0.60

Of all qualifying players (arbitrarily chosen as 100 PA), the high is in bold and the low is in italics. The full table and accompanying calculated spreadsheet can be found here in Google Docs. If anyone wants the Excel file to view derivations, you may email me.

After getting the PA right, Pablo Sandoval's contribution lessened to a more understandable fifth in the division, and Garrett Atkins turned out to not be such a deadweight after all, though he is ranked 15th. Part of that was due to a generous defensive score, which did not help Jeff Baker out.

Going Forward

Provided the Padres don't sell off A-Gone (and he doesn't want to be traded), the top two teams and the top two players will return in the same role next season. The Dodgers will continue with James Loney in hopes that his bat wil return to 2006/07 form after a two season hiatus.

Arizona looks like they will try to groom 2009 rookie Brandon Allen, though a dark horse could be Conor Jackson. He was terrible this season before catching Valley Fever - if he is retained, he could be insurance for Allen after the emergence of Gerardo Parra in left field. The Giants will bring back Travis Ishikawa and Ryan Garko so that Bruce Bochy can find a way to ineffectively use them.

Next week, I'll move on to second base. Where will Clint Barmes and his 23 home runs land?

Giants prospect Angel Villalona update

Eli Greenspan — Tue, 22 Sep 2009 06:24:11 -0000

More photos » by Jorge Cruz - AP

Browse more photos »

He was becoming the Giants' most prized prospect, appearing in a Futures Game in 2008 at the age of 18. His strong build with above average power gives him tremendous upside, not to mention a good work ethic that keeps him in shape. Angel Villalona was rated the number 33 best overall prospect by Baseball America, the youngest prospect on the list. The 6-foot-3, 200 pound first baseman was causing some Giants fans to think that he could be the future face of the organization.

Villalona gave the Giants a reason not to stress about their lack of a legitimate first baseman, biding time with former prospect Travis Ishikawa and other short-term replacements. They anticipated Villalona reporting to Instructional League this week, participating in on-field exercises this Wednesday. However, Villalona became the prime suspect in the murder of a 25-year old man and could face up to 20 years in prison, putting his baseball career in serious jeporady.

Villalona will spend the next two months behind bars awaiting trial, and it is unlikely he will be allowed to train or do anything baseball related while he waits.

A sad story which seriously has changed the course of his life and the future of the Giants organization.

A Pretty Penny

Brendan Scolari — Mon, 14 Sep 2009 10:50:25 -0000

More photos » by Eric Risberg - AP

3 months ago: San Francisco Giants starting pitcher Brad Penny reacts after Los Angeles Dodgers' Rafael Belliard grounded out to first base to end the top of the fourth inning of a baseball game in San Francisco, Sunday, Sept. 13, 2009. Penny pitched seven strong innings against his former team and the Giants won 7-2. (AP Photo/Eric Risberg)

Browse more photos »

Brad Penny stymied the Dodgers on Sunday, pitching 7 innings and allowing only 2 runs on 5 hits, 2 walks, and 2 strikeouts en route to a Giants 7-2 win.

Chad Billingsley had a 6/0 K/BB ratio but got knocked around and only lasted 4 innings, allowing 8 hits and 3 runs. BIllingsley gave up doubles to Nate Schierholtz and Travis Ishikawa and a two run homerun to Juan Uribe.

Jeff Weaver relieved Billingsley and was awful, allowing 4 runs in 1.1 innings. Weaver allowed 5 hits and had a walk and 2 strikeouts. The rest of the bullpen didn't give up any earned runs, but Ronald Belisario relieved Weaver with the bases loaded and let all three runs score. But Scott Elbert, Ramon Troncoso, and Charlie Haeger combined to pitch 2.1 innings and recorded 4 strikeouts without allowing a baserunner.

The offense was unable to score in every inning except the 7th, when Russell Martin hit a two run homerun off of Penny. The homer was Martin's sixth of the season. Other than that the Dodgers only scattered four singles and were 0-5 with RISP. James Loney (who walked twice) was the only Dodger to reach base safely more than once in the game. Neither Manny Ramirez nor Orlando Hudson started the game, but Hudson did pinch hit.

Billingsley is now 0-4 with a 5.67 ERA in his last five starts and his ERA is up to a season high 3.99. Billingsley seems as puzzled by his struggles as everyone else:

I don't even know how to explain it. It's frustrating... I don't think it's necessarily mechanical. I have to keep the ball down in the zone. I'm trying to figure something out and get this thing turned around. My cutter got hit today. It was spinning out of my hand and not moving much. That's what they were hitting.

It's not like I'm trying to throw every pitch belt-high. Maybe it's release point. You can look at video all you want, I know what I'm doing. Trying to correct it, sometimes it doesn't happen. I'm trying to get the rhythm back.

When you're not playing well, yeah, it's getting to you. It's frustrating. I'm battling and going out there and hoping that today is the day to turn this thing around. When I'm out on the mound, I want to get after it. I'm not going out there with doubts.

Physically, I'm fine. Mentally, I'm fine. It's frustrating. I'm feeling good out there. Some little things are throwing you off. It's frustrating.

Here's the win probability chart for the game. It was all Giants:

via www.fangraphs.com

The Dodgers still took the series from the Giants in San Francisco, and tommorow begin a three game set at Dodger Stadium against the Pirates at 7:10 PM. Jon Garland (9-11, 4.23) will be taking on Daniel McCutchen (0-1, 4.85). The Dodgers are 3 games ahead of the Rockies and 7.5 games ahead of the Giants in the NL West. They are also 1 game ahead of the Cardinals for the best record in the NL.

WP - Brad Penny (10-8): 7 IP, 5 hits, 2 runs, 2 walks, 2 strikeouts

LP - Chad Billingsley (12-10): 4 IP, 8 hits, 3 runs, 0 walks, 6 strikeouts

Role reversal: after stumbling in the divisional chase, Rockies must fend off Giants' pursuit

Poseidon's Fist — Fri, 28 Aug 2009 19:15:57 -0000

More photos » by Marcio Jose Sanchez - AP

Let's leave em speechless. Again

Browse more photos »

The Giants could be in first place in the NL Wild Card Sunday. Let that sink in a bit. Technically, they would be tied with Colorado, but that's still borderline incomprehensible after last weekend.

While the Rockies were fumbling their chance to legitimize the divisional race, San Francisco gained a game on the Colorado by eeking out two one-run wins and getting blasted in one game against the Diamondbacks. With the Rockies on the home docket so soon after three very frustrating losses, the Giants surely have retribution freshly in their minds.

Luckily for them, they have their top three pitchers going in the series. Then consider that the Rockies' two hottest hitters this month - Dexter Fowler and Carlos Gonzalez - will both miss some if not all of the series with injuries. That means the demoralization Colorado dealt the Giants last weekend is in danger of being completely wiped out with a possible sweep at AT&T Park this weekend, where the Giants' 41-21 mark is just a half game being Tampa Bay and Boston for the best home field advantage in MLB.

Fortunately, it's not all bad. San Francisco's hottest hitters of late - and their 3 and 4 hitters - were both relegated to pinch-hit duty for the entirety of the Arizona series, and their status will likely be the same for at least tonight's game. In addition, Freddy Sanchez was officially placed on the 15-day Tuesday after spending a week inactive on the bench, leaving the Giants' horrible offense without three of its top weapons.

The Rockies counter Bruce Bochy's Linceum/Zito/Cain triumverate with Ubaldo Jimenez, who Jayson Stark says has "the best stuff in baseball," the ultimate WINNAR Jason Marquis, who Tim Kurkjian gave some love to this morning, and the Road Warrior Jason Hammel.

Should be a competitive series.

Rather than putting virtually the same scouting information in KYF as last Friday, I'll refer you to last week's preview for any seemingly incomplete grading rationalization.

If you care to engage with Giants fans, enjoy: McCovey Chronicles. Here is their series preview.

San Francisco Giants (69-59, L1, 3rd, 3 GB WC, 7 GB Div)

Friday-Sunday: 3-game series at AT&T Park

The Bats: F

The lineup will feature Juan Uribe and Eli Whiteside tonight most likely, but since both Molina and Sandoval are expected back Saturday, I'll leave them in the lineup. Nothing has really changed from last Friday - they still have the 2nd worst wOBA in the league at .304, better than Cincy by the slimmest of margins. I had not noticed this post before and it is now two weeks old, but most of the points hold true. A fanpost at MCC shows the Giants are by far and away the most undisciplined offensive team as well as one of the worst. Given their injury losses for tonight's game, the official loss of Sanchez and the move to AT&T, I downgraded their offense to an F.

LINEUP	Avg	HR	RBI	OBP	SLG	wOBA
Eugenio Velez - 2B	.276	3	16	.308	.402	.313
Randy Winn - LF	.268	2	46	.320	.369	.306
Pablo Sandoval - 3B	.331	19	73	.380	.553	.390
Bengie Molina - C	.263	16	67	.283	.439	.305
Ryan Garko - 1B	.271	13	51	.344	.436	.342
Aaron Rowand - CF	.275	12	53	.329	.441	.335
Nate Schierholtz - RF	.278	5	26	.311	.422	.312
Edgar Renteria - SS	.261	3	42	.318	.330	.288

By wOBA metrics, the lineup features one All-Star caliber players (Sandoval), one above average hitter (Garko), one slightly above average hitters (Rowand), two about average hitters (Winn, Schierholtz, Velez and Molina), and one that is just flat out bad (Renteria).

Juan Uribe (.267, 8, 31) is the utility infielder and Travis Ishikawa (.262, 9, 35) is back on the roster to spell Garko. IF Ryan Rohlinger (0-for-5) is now on the bench with Sanchez on the shelf. Fred Lewis (.268, 4, 16) is the lone backup OF though Velez can slide to LF if necessary. Rookie Eli Whiteside (.229, 1, 7) is Molina's backup catcher. As for tonight, Winn will likely be in the 3-hole, while Garko, Schierholtz and Ishikawa have each had their try at the cleanup spot.

Hop after the jump for the scouting report on the arms, the D, the pitching matchups, injuries and the hot/cold players.

The Arms: A

It would be difficult to find a trio of pitchers a team would least like to face right now. Lincecum and Cain were no-brainer All-Stars and Barry Zito continued his recent resurgence against Colorado Monday. The Giants rank in the top three in just about ever pitching category there is - impressive given they don't get a benefit from the home park.

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Brian Wilson	5-5	55	0	0	0	30	6	60.0	50	25	20	2	24	67	3.00	1.23

The bullpen composition hasn't changed . After Wilson,there's Jeremy Affeldt, Sergio Romo, Bob Howry, Merkin Valdez, Justin Miller and Brandon Medders.

The D: B+

The Giants have MLB 2nd best UZR/150 helping Fangraphs to rate San Francisco's defense as #2 in MLB. Putting Velez in at 2B is a downgrade from their season average though.

The Ballpark: Hitter's Park

AT&T being a pitcher's park is one of MLB's greater myths. It has a multi-year park factor of 102, while this year it is 103/104. For comparison, Coors Field is 105/106. So AT&T is roughly halfway as advantageous for hitters as Coors. The myth has some legs though. It completely drowns home runs (factor of 86.1 for HR/FB), though it inflates triples by an even larger margin. The park has also been advantageous for singles and doubles.

Probable Pitchers:

Tonight, 8:15 pm MDT

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Ubaldo Jimenez	12-9	26	26	1	0	0	0	174.1	146	67	65	9	66	154	3.36	1.22

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Tim Lincecum	12-4	27	26	4	2	0	0	185.1	142	57	50	8	51	214	2.43	1.04

Dueling aces part deux. As amoeba recently pointed out, Jimenez has obliterated the franchise record for consecutive 6+ inning starts. You know all the awesomeness that is Timmy, but the Giants are just 3-6 in his starts vs the Rockies in his career, 1-2 at AT&T Park. He also has a seasonlong four game winless streak. Okay, it's mostly not his fault, but it's still true. The Giants are -130 favorites in Vegas. I'll just let the two young arms do the rest of the talking. Favors: GIANTS by the slimmest of margins, slimmer than Timmy's frame

Saturday, August 29, 7:05 MDT

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Jason Marquis	14-8	28	25	2	1	0	0	171.1	163	72	66	11	54	84	3.47	1.27

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Barry Zito	8-11	27	26	1	0	0	0	154.0	142	72	70	16	62	118	4.09	1.32

Jason Marquis is moving up amoeba's list as well, as he has 10 straight 6+ IP starts, all quality starts. He pitched a complete game in San Fran earlier this season and allowed just 1 run in two of the three starts vs the Giants. Zito is on a 12 IP scoreless streak and has only allowed more than 2 runs once in his last eight starts, and he only allowed three that time. That has helped him push his ERA in danger of dipping below the 4 mark. If the Rockies have hopes of winning this series, this is the game they must win, but it's no clear advantage for Colorado. Favors: ROCKIES slightly.

Sunday, August 30, 2:05 MDT

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Jason Hammel	8-7	26	23	1	0	0	0	132.0	165	73	65	12	33	91	4.43	1.50

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Matt Cain	12-4	26	26	4	0	0	0	177.1	143	50	47	17	61	133	2.39	1.15

Hammel started the only game the Rockies took from the Dodgers, is 3-1 in August and just put together two starts reaching through the 7th inning for just the 2nd time this season. He has permitted just 3 ER in 12 IP vs the Giants this season and has a 2.88 road ERA still. Hammel has allowed 3 or less runs in all five August starts and 7 of 8 overall. That is quite good for a fifth starter, but he draws Matt Cain yet again. Cain is 0-2 in August and is winless in six starts, though he allowed one run each in his last two starts. Here's a scary stat for you: Cain has allowed 1 ER or less in 17 of 26 starts this year. Favors: GIANTS strongly.

My take

The Giants are hurt but didn't fall apart after a heartbreaking series at Coors. The Giants have a glimmer of hope with a strong showing this weekend, but if the Rockies manage to win the series, it would not only push the lead further but would also result in the likely implosion of McCovey Chronicles, if not the Giants' psyche. To do this, Colorado absolutely must win Saturday and hope to steal one from Cain or Lincecum with help of their injured bats. I suspect the Rockies will manage only one win, which would pull the Giants back to within two games - right where we were before last weekend's series at Coors.

Bengie Molina is 6 of his last 18 and Pablo Sandoval is 5 for his last 14, while both have a homer, two doubles and two walks on that streak. Of course, both are out of the lineup tonight.

Nate Schierholtz' HR off Jorge de la Rosa Saturday represents his only hit in his past 24 ABs. Juan Uribe has just one single in his last 20 ABs, but he has 2 HR too. Ryan Garko and Travis Ishikawa are both only 4 for their last 17.

Freddy Sanchez was finally put on the 15-day DL Tuesday after a week of inactivity. Andres Torres (hamstring - 7/31) and Rich Aurilia (ankle - 8/12) join him on the 15-day DL. Aurilia is apparently ready to play, but the Giants have yet to activate him. Noah Lowry (ribs) has been on the 60 day DL since at least Opening Week, and P Kelvin Pichardo (shoulder - 6/28), Randy Johnson (trapezius - 7/6) and Henry Sosa (shoulder - 8/5) are now keeping him company. Bengie Molina (tight quad) and Pablo Sandoval (tight calf, flu) are questionable for tonight's game and likely won't start but are available to come into the game if it needed.

Poll

By dinnertime Sunday, I will be feeling:

Elated: Sweeping the Giants on the road against those pitchers is an even bigger blow to their playoff chances than the resulting 6 game lead.

16 votes

Very happy: That was a tough series win and it showed who the better team is.

75 votes

Uneasy, but understanding: I couldn't have expected to win this series, but that two game lead is more tenuous than I'd like.

65 votes

Terrified: The offense isn't clicking, we've lost five in a row, and the Giants have caught us. Maybe the choke's on us.

21 votes

177 votes | Poll has closed

Lousy Lineup Optimizer: San Francisco Giants

devil_fingers — Wed, 19 Aug 2009 12:00:11 -0000

More photos » by Ben Margot - AP

Who would have thought that a team with a .264/.278/.439 cleanup hitter could wind up scoring so few runs?

Browse more photos »

The eight of you who are familiar with this series will remember that "Lousy" in the title does not necessarily refer to the lineup, but perhaps to the optimization procedure, or, as the "Optimizer" (me). The Giants have made some additions down the stretch (Ryan Garko and Freddy Sanchez) as they push for a wildcard spot. No, Garko and Sanchez aren't exactly mashers, and those trades were not exactly universally acclaimed. However, it is also true that in the short term they are better hitters than Travis Ishikawa and Emmanuel Burriss. But does the lineup still qualify as lousy? Since I agree with those who say we should look forward by checking out a player's "true talent" estimate (using past performance, age adjustment, environment, etc) rather than the past -- maybe not. And when I look at the ZipS RoS projections for the starters for the Giants, their average wOBA is about league-average.

That being said, as of this writing the Giants have the second least-productive offense in baseball at 96.8 park-adjusted Batting Runs below average. The SBNation Giants site, McCovey Chronicles, has "In play: Out(s)" as its (awesome) subtitle. And let's face it: I wanted to write about a team that actually is playing meaningful games at this point. Sure, over a full season, an optimized lineup will only probably only gain a team between 5 and 15 runs, so over these last six weeks, even 4 runs would be a miracle. But, hey, teams spend a lot of resources on trades that accomplish a lot less than that. Why not do something that will help you team win that won't cost you anything more?

But this all pales in comparison to the biggest justification for this column: any team using Bengie Molina as their everyday cleanup hitter definitely could be getting more out of their batting order.

Lineup Optimization by The Book

This is the fourth in an occasional series have been writing batting orders of particular teams. The general principles are largely drawn from The Book, which is worth checking out on this and many other topics. Sky Kalkman gives a good, brief rundown in this article. While there is already good stuff out there, I like to do this things for myself.

Here are a few of the guidelines (with my own twists). Yes, there is a lot of stuff here... Feel free to skim or skip this stuff and browse down to the "Getting to the Point" section, although if you aren't somewhat familiar with The Book's ideas on lineup optimization, it's at least worth skimming this section.

"It's all relative." Although this isn't directly stated in The Book or in any of the summaries I've seen, I think it's worth noting: the appropriate spot in the batting order for any particular player is relative. People talk about having a "true leadoff man" or a "#4 hitter" or that a player has a swing that's just perfect for hitting #2 or whatever. But the truth is, a player's "best" place in a lineup depends on his skills relative to the other players.
Where should the best hitter hit? The best five hitters (by wOBA or equivalent stat (e.g., not OPS) should be in the top five spots. Of those 5, generally, the best hitters will be in the #1, #2, and #4 spots. Ideally, of these three the hitter in the #1 spot will have the best OBP, the #4 hitter will have the most power, and the #2 hitter will be somewhere in between (relative to the #1 and #4 hitters). The best hitter will probably be in the #2 or #4 spot. The fourth and fifth best hitters will be in the #5 and #3 spots, respectively. Yes, you read that right: the #3 hitter's only advantage in run expectancy over #5 is in home runs. Of the top five spots, this is where you want your low-OBP slugger. As we'll see, platoon issues can make getting the best into the ## 1,2 and 4 slots tough, but getting them into the top 5 is pretty close.
The other half: In slots ##6-9, simply go in descending order of hitter quality, keeping in mind:
Platoon issues: Separating lefties takes a certain precedence, since this prevents the opposing team from leveraging LHPs against your lefties, who generally have bigger platoon splits. Moreover, given platoon splits (more on how these are generated in the next section), different batting orders against RHP and LHP are in order (har har). This also means that if your best hitters are lefties, they may not get into the "ideal" spots next to each other.
Can pinch hitting help? Note that in the chapter on platoons, the authors of The Book show that pinch hitting to gain the platoon advantage really doesn't solve this and other problems since the penalty pinch hitters suffer from the difficulty of hitting off of the bench offsets the platoon advantage they might gain.
Speed on the bases: Baserunning and basestealing are important, but are difficult to place, since often (but not always) the same players are good at both. In general, you want good baserunners (aside from stealing -- those good at taking the extra base, scoring from first on a double, etc.) in front of good contact hitters who can "move them over." Basestealers are best leveraged in front of poor hitters who have trouble moving them over. In both cases, if possible, avoid putting these players in front of high-power hitters, since this negates the advantage of those skills. So while your good baserunner might best be utilized at the top of the order (e.g., in front of a #2 hitter with moderate power), your best basestealer will likely be best utilized in further down the order in front of poor hitters -- say, in the #5 or #6 spot.
The Jim Rice Effect. Some spots have a greater odds of facing double play situations. The spot that sees the most DP situations is #3 by far, followed by #2. Therefore, try to avoid having high GDP players in those spots. The spot that sees the least (particularly in the NL) is the leadoff spot. So some times if you have an excellent hitter who also hits into a good number of DPs, even if he is slow, it might be worth it to move him into the leadoff spot.
Movin' on up: The "second leadoff hitter" theory has some validity -- having a #9 hitter who can "set the table" for the top of the order does increase run expectancy, so putting the worst hitter 8th sometimes helps. However, this worst hitter has to be really, really horrible in order for the advantage to obtain. In other words, in National League parks, hitting the pitcher 8th is the smart move according to The Book, although it is worth noting that Tom Tango wrote the chapter on lineups, and Mitchel Litchman (aka "MGL") is more circumspect regarding the value of the pitcher hitting 8th.
Remember that who is in the lineup is much more important that what order it goes in. So relax -- despite my nitpicking over two points of wOBA here and there, it really doesn' t matter that much. But it sure is fun to quibble...

Projected Stats, Sources, and Ground Rules for this Series

Who gets in? Again ultimately, who is in the lineup is more important than what order they go in. Having said that, in this occasional series my focus is opposite issue -- the order. So I'm generally going to accept whatever group of players the manager is throwing out there, whether I think it is the right group or not. I won't always get this right, since lineups change day-to-day depending on how players are feelings, how much acid reflux the manager had the night before, etc.
Where are those numbers coming from?, the basics: For each posts raw batting stats, I'll either use projections from one or more of the more popular projection systems (CHONE, ZiPS, PECOTA, or maybe even in-season Marcels), or if it's a "reader request" and the requester wants to submit his or her own numbers, that's fine, too. This far into the year, the beginning of the season projections are still pretty good, but some players are peforming differently enough (or are getting more PAs than expected) that our projections change. For wOBA/AVG/OBP/SLG stats for this column on the Giants, I'll be using the handy ZiPS In-Season projections ("RoS") as listed at FanGraphs on Sunday August the 16th. For steals, I'm generating the runs above average per ~150 games from ZiPS preseason projections for reasons we can get into in the comments if you really want to...
Who is the better hitter? From these stats, I will generate a wOBA (if it isn't done already, such as at FanGraphs) for each player. wOBA (weighted on-base average), for those who don't know, is the total offensive value stat that has taken the baseball internet by storm. Introduced by the authors of The Book and invented by Tom Tango, wOBA takes care of all the problems OPS had in terms of the weighting of OBP and SLG, doubles and home runs. It's roughly on an OBP scale, so something between .330-.340 is about average. For the version used at FanGraphs, .330 was about the MLB nonpitcher average in 2008. You can read more around the 'net, but in short: if one player has a better wOBA than another, he's a more productive hitter, period. wOBA for players can be found at FanGraphs and Stat Corner, for now, and probably more places as time moves on...
What about platoon splits? As The Book also explains (I'm telling you, you really should read it!), while each player has his own platoon split, it takes a lot longer than you would think to establish it -- it takes about 2,000 PAs against LHP for right-handed hitters to be able to say with some degree of confidence what their platoon split is -- so that's means only guys in the league a long time. For left-handed hitters, since there is more variability, it doesn't take as long -- about 1,000 PAs. Still, only veterans really get that far. Until then, most players should be assumed to have the league average platoon split. So, following the procedure used in by the authors for earlier years, I took the average wOBA and OBP splits for the 2005-2008 AL (it was easier to exclude pitchers that way) and applied them to each player. The only stats I will be adjusting this for are wOBA and OBP. BA, SLG, ISO are the generic ones, just to get a sense of the "kind" of hitter a guy is, obviously, those will change, too. but are harder to adjust for generically. In the "vs. RHP" and "vs. LHP" lineups, the wOBA and OBP figures are adjusted for league-average splits, and are thus italicized. [For more on estimating platoon skills, read this.]
What about Stolen Bases? I took the linear weights SB/CS runs projected by ZiPS before the season and prorated for ~600 PAs.
And baserunning? A bit more complicated... In the previous installments, I used Baseball Prospectus' EQBRR stats minus the stolen basees component. But I realized that what we're really looking here is just the runners ability to advance on hits, so starting with the Giants, I'm just using the EqHAR component. I did a primitive Marcels-type projection with them, without age adjustments, but with regression incorporating the Speed Score listed in the CHONE projections. Just to get a feel for the relative abilty of the baserunners, I projected runs values above/below average per 50 advancement opportunities. The listed numbers are projected baserunning runs above/below average per 600 PAs.
How about grounding into double plays? In short, the new Baseball Reference came out with information on GiDPs, opps, league averages and stuff. So I was able to do another pseudo-Marcel. The number listed is the GiDP runs above (avoided) or below (grounded into ) average per 600 PAs, normalized for the average number of opportunities seen over 600 PAs from 2005-2008.

Getting to the Point

Below are the raw, un-platooned stats projected as of August 16, 2009 for the Giants from the ZiPS RoS projections at FanGraphs with some other stuff. I had a hard time figuring out who the Giants were going to start in left field. I originally did the lineups with Fred Lewis in LF (he's a really good baserunner, by the way), but a commentator in another thread said Nate Schierholtz was probably going to be getting most of the starts, so I subbed him in (his projection is also better than Lewis's). I hope I didn't screw too much stuff up. Below is something like a recent Giant batting order according to baseball-reference.com, except with Nate Schierholtz hitting in the #1 place instead of Velez.

2009 pseudo-Giants Batting Order 2009 ZiPS In=Season Projections + Some Other Stuff
Player	Pos.		wOBA	BA	OBP	SLG	ISO	EqHAR	SBr	GDPr
Nate Schierholtz	LF	L	.341	.300	.328	.464	.164	0.2	0.4	1.3
Freddy Sanchez	2B	R	.324	.291	.335	.437	.146	1.1	-0.5	-0.1
Pablo Sandoval	3B	S	.359	.301	.337	.503	.202	-0.2	-0.5	0.1
Bengie Molina	C	R	.309	.277	.299	.416	..139	-2.2	0.0	-1.8
Ryan Garko	1B	R	.336	.270	.345	.413	.143	-1.9	0.0	0.5
Randy Winn	RF	S	.327	.279	.337	.396	.117	0.6	1.6	1.2
Aaron Rowand	CF	R	.332	.275	.335	.423	.148	0.0	-0.7	-1.5
Edgar Renteria	SS	R	.305	.269	.323	.359	.090	0.1	-0.5	-1.7
Pitcher

What's that? You actually want to see an optimized batting order?

Optimized Giants Batting Order vs. RHP
Player	Pos.	Bts	*wOBA*	AVG	*OBP*	SLG	ISO	EqHAR	SBr	GDPr
Aaron Rowand	CF	R	0.327	.275	.329	.423	.148	0.0	-0.7	-1.5
Nate Schierholtz	LF	L	0.350	.300	.338	.464	.164	0.2	0.4	1.3
Ryan Garko	1B	R	0.331	.270	.339	.413	.143	-1.9	0.0	0.5
Pablo Sandoval	3B	S	0.359	.301	.337	.503	.202	-0.2	-0.5	0.1
Randy Winn	RF	S	0.327	.279	.337	.396	.117	0.6	1.6	1.2
Freddy Sanchez	2B	R	0.319	.291	.329	.437	.146	1.1	-0.5	-0.1
Bengie Molina	C	R	0.304	.277	.294	.416	.139	-2.2	0.0	-1.8
Pitcher
Edgar Renteria	SS	R	0.300	0.269	0.317	0.359	0.090	0.1	0.3	-1.7

[Only the columns in italics are adjusted for league-average platoon splits.]

Comment: Whatever other problems one might have putting together a batting order for the Giants, having too many good left-handed hitters isn't one of them. Seriously, in some lineups, all the best hitters are lefties, so it makes it impossible to get them in the 1, 2, and 4 spots. Anyway, after adjusting for average platoon splits, the three best Giants hitters (projected) vs. RHP are Sandoval, Schierholtz, and Garko, followed by Rowand and Winn in a tie. The first inclination, given the various wOBA, OBP, ISO, and baserunning numbers, was to put Schierholtz #1, Garko #2, Sandoval #4, and then have Rowand hit #3 (he has a higher ISO than Randy Winn, and the #3 hitter sees the most 2-out PAs, so more HR power is important in that spot), and put Winn, the closest thing this lineup has to a basetealer, #5. However, If you look at Rowand's numbers, he's absolutely dreadful when it comes to grounding into the double play, and the #3 spot sees the most GDP opportunities, by far. By putting him in the #1 spot, we avoid that (particularly with OBP wizards like Molina and Renteria at the bottom of the order), and both Garko and Schierholtz have been better than average at avoiding it. That probably saves as many or more runs than any other single betting order move. The #2 and #4 hitters are to be of the same quality, and maybe Scheirholtz would have just as much power as Sandoval if we adjusted those numbers for platoon splits. Plus, Schierhotlz isn't exactly projected to be a walks machine. But I finaly decided that Sandoval is just a bit of a surer bet for power and "moving guys over," but I can see it either way. And, yes, either guy (or any number of Giants) would be an upgrade of Bengie Freaking Molina hitting cleanip. You could also make the argument for switching Garko and Schierholtz, given how well Nate avoids the GDP. It's all pretty close. Finally , having Winn hit #5 allows his decent base stealing to be leveraged in front of the terrible hitters behind him so he can get into scoring position for the occasional Sanchez single vs. RHP.

Optimized Giants Batting Order vs. LHP
Player	Pos.	Bts	*wOBA*	AVG	*OBP*	SLG	ISO	EqHAR	SBr	GDPr
Aaron Rowand	CF	R	0.348	.275	.355	.423	.148	0.0	-0.7	-1.5
Ryan Garko	1B	R	0.352	.270	.363	.413	.143	-1.9	0.0	0.5
Freddy Sanchez	2B	R	0.340	.291	.353	.437	.146	1.1	-0.5	-0.1
Pablo Sandoval	3B	S	0.359	.301	.337	.503	.202	-0.2	-0.5	0.1
Randy Winn	RF	S	0.327	.279	.337	.396	.117	0.6	1.6	1.2
Bengie Molina	C	R	0.324	.277	.315	.416	.139	-2.2	0.0	-1.8
Nate Schierholtz	LF	L	0.323	.300	.312	.464	.164	0.2	0.4	1.3
Pitcher
Edgar Renteria	SS	R	0.320	.269	.340	.359	.090	0.1	0.3	-1.7

[Only the columns in italics are adjusted for league-average platoon splits.]

Comment: If nothing else, these guys should smash LHP. And I was also easily able to slot the guys with the three best wOBA vs. LHP in the #1, #2, and #4 slots. That is so rare and exciting that I'll leave it to you to decide whether switching Sanchez and Garko in order to better utilize Garko's better HR power (although not ISO in general, oddly), ability to avoid the DP, and Sanchez's baserunning better. Rowand again stays at leadoff, since GDP ability doesn't Platoon." And ##6-9 easily go in descending order of wOBA. I do go against The Book by having a better hitter at the #3 spot than the #5 spot, but Winn's speed is a bit wasted in front of Sandoval, and his despite Renteria and Molina being almost league average against LHP, I'm going to guess they'll still need his help to get into him into scoring position. Keep in mind that not everyone agrees with having the pitcher hit #8, but it works either way.

Final Thoughts:

I don't know if anyone reads these, or if those who do actually enjoy them, but I like putting them together (although it takes a lot longer than you would think). Remember that these are just suggestions. They are worth debating in a friendly manner, and trying out in different combinations. I don't have a sophisticated simulator to try these out on. I know that Baseball Musings has one, but it doesn't take baserunning, platoon splits, and GDPs, etc. into account, although if you want to compare these and other lineups using such a simulator, it would be interesting to compare the results.

And if through some strange twist of fate, it somehow leads to Bengie Molina not hitting cleanup, then all this work will have been be worth it.

Update August 19, 2009, 4:11 P.M. EST: Just realized that I made a small mistake -- Sandoval (whom, I should note, looks like a surefire superstar with those sorts of numbers at age 22) is actually a switch-hitter. It doesn't really make a difference for the orders. I just changed his numbers back to "even" for platoon splits. Sorry, Giants fans, no disrespect intended, the kid is a stud.

Dodgers Fall In Extra-Inning Battle

Brendan Scolari — Thu, 13 Aug 2009 06:32:55 -0000

More photos » by Ben Margot - AP

4 months ago: San Francisco Giants' Pablo Sandoval, left, is restrained from Los Angeles Dodgers catcher Russell Martin, right, by home plate umpire Paul Emmel during the fifth inning of a baseball game Wednesday, Aug. 12, 2009, in San Francisco. Both benches emptied in the ensuing arguement. (AP Photo/Ben Margot)

Browse more photos »

The Dodgers lost a 4-2 heartbreaker to the Giants today, preventing them from completing a road sweep. Despite a valiant comeback to tie the game in the 9th inning the Dodgers lost on a Juan Uribe walk-off homerun. They are still 5.5 games ahead of the Rockies and 6.5 games ahead of the Giants.

Starter Jeff Weaver only lasted 3 innings but didn't allow any runs. He got into a bases loaded nobody out jam in the second inning but managed to escape without an damage being done. Also in the second inning Giants manager Bruce Bochy got ejected for arguing a call when Manny Ramirez nearly got picked off at first base but managed to sneak his arm back in safely.

The game remained quiet until the fifth inning when a Freddy Sanchez single plated the Giants first run. After that Pablo Sandoval had a ball thrown at him (I was at the game so I'm not exactly sure what happened, it didn't hit him though) and started walking towards the mound. Benches cleared and players were pushing each other around a bit but surprisingly nobody was ejected. It seemed that at first Sandoval had been ejected as he threw his helmet and walked into the dugout but after temporary manager Ron Wotus came out to argue Sandoval came back up to hit. After Sandoval walked McDonald got one more out before Hong-Chih Kuo came in to pitch. Kuo allowed 2 walks, with the second plating another run to give the Giants a 2-0 lead.

Juan Pierre tripled with one out in the sixth and Rafael Furcal scored him on a groundout to cut the Giants' lead in half. But other than that, the Dodgers were unable to get to Tim Lincecum... that is, until the 9th.

With one out in the ninth inning Rafael Furcal hit an infield single on a ball that he appeared to be out on. This time when Ron Wotus argued the call he was ejected from the game, leaving the managerial duties to third base coach Tim Flannery. Russell Martin then flew out to deep center field allowing Furcal to tag up and go to second base. Down to their last out and with Lincecum at 120 pitches, Andre Ethier hit a liner to right field that scored Furcal to tie the score. Lincecum finally came out and Giants closer Brian Wilson got the last out of the inning.

The Giants threatened in the bottom of the ninth but were unable to score. Pablo Sandoval crushed a ball to left center and wasn't even running because he thought it was gone but it one hopped the wall to keep the game going. Aaron Rowand hit into a double play off of George Sherrill to end the inning.

However, in the 10th inning the Giants finally got their vengence. Guillermo Mota cam in for Sherrill and walked Travis Ishikawa to start the inning. After retiring Randy Winn, Mota got an 0-2 count against Juan Uribe even though he threw two poor breaking balls in a row. Mota's third pitch was a fastball at the letters which Uribe slammed into the left field bleachers to give the Giants a 4-2 win.

It was a disappointing loss for the Dodgers, but overall it was quite an exciting game to attend on a beautiful day in San Francisco. Here's the win probability chart for the game:

via www.fangraphs.com

The Dodgers have tommorow off as they travel to Arizona for a three game series against the Diamondbacks. On Friday the series begins with Clayton Kershaw squaring off against Dan Haren.

W - Brian Wilson (4-5): 1.1 IP, 0 hits, 0 runs, 4 strikeouts

L - Guillermo Mota (3-4): 0.1 IP, 1 hit, 2 runs, 1 walk, 0 strikeouts

Box Score

Dodgers Double Up 3rd Place Team In NL West

Eric Stephen — Tue, 11 Aug 2009 05:43:22 -0000

More photos » by Ben Margot - AP

Hiroki Kuroda pitched 6.1 solid innings for the win tonight.

Browse more photos »

A three-run double by Matt Kemp was enough support for Hiroki Kuroda, who threw a solid 6.1 innings as the Dodgers won the first game of the three-game series at AT&T Park, 4-2 over the Giants.

Jonathan Sanchez looked good early for the Giants, striking out four in a row at one point, but the Dodgers rallied in the fourth. A one-out single by Manny Ramirez was followed by walks to Casey Blake and Orlando Hudson, leading to Kemp's game-changing double down the left field line. Mark Loretta, starting at first base in place of a slumping James Loney for the second straight game, followed with an RBI single to make the lead 4-1 at that point.

The lone run scored off Kuroda came off the bat of Travis Ishikawa, whose second inning home run opened the scoring. The Giants added another run via the longball when Bengie Molina demolished a Jonathan Broxton fastball into the left field stands in the ninth inning. The Giants were able to get the tying run to the plate in the ninth inning, but Broxton was able to close the door, picking up his 25th save.

Loretta and Manny Ramirez each had two hits for the Dodgers.

Orlando Hudson left the game after the seventh inning with an apparent groin strain. Manager Joe Torre said after the game Hudson would likely be out for Tuesday night's game.

On the postgame show on Prime Ticket, it was reported that Chad Billingsley is expected to make his next start, Monday at home against the Cardinals.

Randy Wolf, who will try to follow Kuroda's lead of evening his record, faces off against feel-good story Joe Martinez tomorrow night.

WP - Hiroki Kuroda (5-5): 6.1 IP, 6 hits, 1 run, 1 walk, 2 strikeouts

LP - Jonathan Sanchez (5-10): 5 IP, 5 hits, 4 runs, 3 walks, 6 strikeouts

Sv - Jonathan Broxton (25): 1 IP, 2 hits, 1 run

Box Score

Quick Summary of Recent Trades

Jack Moore — Thu, 30 Jul 2009 20:18:12 -0000

Just in case you've missed it, there's been quite a bit of activity on the trade market recently. Here's what has gone down in the last two or three days.

July 27th

Cleveland Indians trade Ryan Garko to San Francisco Giants for Scott Barnes

My analysis: This is only a marginal improvement for San Francisco. Garko is a better hitter than Travis Ishikawa, for sure, but Ishikawa is a great fielder. As I referenced here, SF should've been trying to improve their already good run prevention, and this is not the way to go about it. Barnes is a good pitching prospect, and this deal is a clear win for the Indians.

Other analysis: Bay City Ball, Fangraphs, Let's Go Tribe

July 28th

Chicago White Sox trade Brian Anderson to Boston Red Sox for Mark Kotsay

My analysis: This is probably the most meaningless trade you'll see this year. Both players had been struggling, and needed a change of scenery. Anderson, to me, is the better asset here due to age.

Other analysis: FanGraphs

July 29th

Pittsburgh Pirates trade Ian Snell, Jack Wilson to Seattle Mariners for Jeff Clement, Ronny Cedeno, Aaron Pribanic, Brett Lorin, Nathan Adcock

My analysis: Snell and Wilson were both clearly done in Pittsburgh. They both, still, have the potential to be productive players in what would be an extremely unlikely Seattle playoff run in 2009, or a much more likely 2010 run. Jack Wilson is a tremendous defensive shortstop and plays at slightly better than league average, and Snell has shown the ability to be an above average pitcher. Jeff Clement's value, in my opinion, was mostly tied in his ability to catch. With his knees shot, he'll be moving to first base, where he will have to be able to play at least average or better defense for his bat to play there. Cedeno is a throw in. The 3 class A pitchers, however, are a very good pickup for a Pirates system that is getting better by the day. Check the other analyses for more on the pitchers.

Other analysis: Fangraphs, Lookout Landing, Bucs Dugout

Seattle Mariners trade Wladimir Balentien to Cincinnati Reds for Robert Manuel

My analysis: Balentien was a touted prospect who looked very good in the minors, but has been stymied by big league pitching. At 25, Balentien's career is by no means over, but he needs a resurgence with Cincinnati. Manuel doesn't throw hard but appears to have exceptional control. He projects as a bullpen piece.

Other analysis: Fangraphs, Lookout Landing, Basement Dwellers

Cleveland Indians trade Cliff Lee, Ben Francisco to Philadelphia Phillies for Jason Knapp, Carlos Carrasco, Lou Marson, Jason Donald

My analysis: An exceptional deal for Philadelphia. Lee is incredibly cheap for both this year and next year (5.75M and 9M respectively). The Phillies hold on to Kyle Drabek and J.A. Happ, and get the next best thing to Roy Halladay. This is not just a deal for this year, this is also a deal for next year, and being able to replace the anemic 5th spot in the Phillies rotation is huge. The prospects the Indians receive are certainly good, especially Knapp and Carrasco, but I feel they could've done better for Lee.

Other analysis: Fangraphs, Let's Go Tribe, Crashburn Alley

Colorado Rockies trade Jason Hirsh to New York Yankees for PTBNL

My analysis: Meaningless move. Adds rotation depth, but Sergio Mitre has been performing admirably in his fill-in role.

Other analysis: Fangraphs

Pittsburgh Pirates trade Freddy Sanchez to San Francisco Giants for Tim Alderson

My analysis: The ultimate win-now move. Too much to give up for a player like Freddy Sanchez, for sure. The Giants middle infielders have been struggling, and Freddy Sanchez is a good all-around player who will boost an anemic offense. Still, Alderson is a top-50 pitcher, and while some will disagree with that, his numbers seem to suggest that he has the potential to be a middle or even upper rotation guy, which is simply to much to give up for a rental like Sanchez.

Other analysis: Fangraphs, Bucs Dugout, Bay City Ball

July 30th

Detroit Tigers trade Josh Anderson to Kansas City Royals for cash

My analysis: Josh Anderson, much like Brian Anderson, is a speedy outfielder who had recently been DFA by his team. Royals make a cheap pickup of a player who is still young enough to become a potentially productive player. Detroit just wasn't the right place for him.

Other analysis: Bless You Boys