SB Nation - Daniel McCutchen

Pittsburgh Pirates Top 20 Prospects for 2010

John Sickels — Wed, 16 Dec 2009 22:16:26 -0000

More photos » by Gene J. Puskar - AP

2 months ago: Pittsburgh Pirates' Andrew McCutchen drives in two-runs with a single off Los Angeles Dodgers pitcher George Sherrill in the seventh inning of a baseball game in Pittsburgh Saturday, Sept. 26, 2009.(AP Photo/Gene J. Puskar)

Browse more photos »

Pittsburgh Pirates Top 20 Prospects for 2010

All grades are EXTREMELY PRELIMINARY and subject to change. Don't get too worried about exact rankings at this point, especially once you get beyond the Top 10. Grade C+/C guys are pretty interchangeable depending on what you want to emphasize. Complete reports on these and over 1,000 other players will be in the 2010 Baseball Prospect Book, now available for pre-order, shipping on February 2^nd!

1) Pedro Alvarez, 3B, Grade A: Bat looks excellent. Even if he moves to first base, his bat will be good enough for him to be an All-Star. Upside: David Ortiz.

2) Jose Tabata, OF, Grade B: I don't know if I agree with the Pirates about his power, but I do believe them about his age and at 21 he is still VERY young with high upside.

3) Tony Sanchez, C, Grade B: He was a slight overdraft but I like him, excellent defense and it doesn't look like his power was all aluminum.

4) Zack Von Rosenberg, RHP, Grade B-: This is an aggressive grade for a high school pitcher with just one pro inning under his belt, but I really like his pitchability and have a strong intuitive feeling about him. He still has some projection left, too. Going to take a risk with this one and put him ahead of Alderson and Lincoln.

5) Tim Alderson, RHP, Grade B-: Borderline C+. Loss of velocity and break on the curve is troubling, but he's still a guy who held his own in Double-A at age 20. Stock has dropped but still an intriguing property as an inning-eater type. Ranks ahead of Lincoln because he's younger.

6) Brad Lincoln, RHP, Grade C+: Borderline B-. Command looks all the way back, but components are more those of an inning-eater type than a true ace.

7) Chase D'arnaud, INF, Grade C+: Speed, on-base ability, solid defense, might develop more pop. At worst a good utility guy and could get beyond that.

8) Starling Marte, OF, Grade C+: Uber-tools, particularly speed, but raw with the strike zone.

9) Rudy Owens, LHP, Grade C+: Outstanding K/BB ratio. Was hittable after moving up to Lynchburg, though he maintained a good strikeout rate. Great command of decent stuff but need to see in Double-A.

10) Ronald Uviedo, RHP, Grade C+: Live arm stands out but unsure of future role.

11) Victor Black, RHP, Grade C+: Another live arm, Dallas Baptist product has high ceiling but needs better control.

12) Daniel McCutchen, RHP, Grade C+: Old for a rookie at age 27, but has nothing left to prove in the minors and knows how to pitch. Another guy with a great K/BB ratio.

13) Brett Lorin, RHP, Grade C+: Sleeper prospect snapped up from the Mariners, could rank as high as 10^th.

14) Robbie Grossman, OF, Grade C+: High strikeout rate is off-putting, but he also draws walks, steals bases, and has untapped power potential.

15) Diego Moreno, RHP, Grade C+: Lively relief arm came out of nowhere, need to see at higher levels but could advance quickly as a pen asset.

16) Justin Wilson, LHP, Grade C+: Component ratios at Lynchburg weren't great, but he has a good arm and lefties with above average stuff get plenty of chances.

17) Colton Cain, LHP, Grade C+: Could rank as high as 12^th. Another high-ceiling arm bought away from college like Von Rosenberg, though not as polished.

18) Gorkys Hernandez, OF, Grade C: Baseball America has him at 10^th on their Pirates list due to his tools, but I'm starting to doubt the bat and his skills seem to be stagnating.

19) Trent Stevenson, RHP, Grade C: Another young projectable high school arm bought out of college ball.

20) Brooks Pounders, RHP, Grade C: Less projectable than Stevenson but another interesting prep arm. The rotation in the New York-Penn League and/or Low-A is going to be really intriguing in 2010.

OTHERS: (Grade Cs): Ramon Aguero, RHP; Nate Baker, LHP; Ramon Cabrera, C; Evan Chambers, OF; Jarek Cunningham, INF; Zack Dodson, LHP; Wesley Freeman, OF; Brian Friday, SS; Brock Holt, INF; Jeff Inman, RHP; Quincy Latimore, OF; Jeff Locke, LHP; Jordy Mercer, SS; Quinton Miller, RHP; Bryan Morris, RHP; Danny Moskos, LHP; John Raynor, OF; Hunter Strickland, RHP; Donald Veal, LHP; Neil Walker, 3B.

This farm system is improving, thanks to trades, more aggressive drafting, and additional scouting in Latin America.

Alvarez is the crown jewel, of course, and there isn't a lot really that needs to be said about him. Tabata is a more difficult case, since even if they're right about his age, he risks tweenerdom if his power doesn't come along. I like Tony Sanchez a lot and people need to lay off about the decision to draft him. They poured a ton of money into projectable guys in later rounds, and I think the strategy of mixing skill players with tool players will pay dividends.

The system is thin in position players beyond the top group. I like d'Arnaud but he may end up as just a good role player and not a starter. We'll know more once he faces Double-A pitching. Marte could be anything from a big star to a huge bust. Heavy investments have been made in young pitching recently. I like Von Rosenberg the best of the bunch, but Cain, Pounders, Stevenson, Dodson, and Miller all have significant upside potential. There are also live-armed guys who could help in the bullpen relatively soon, and there are inning-eaters such as Lincoln, Alderson, and Strickland to provide some leavening to the upside guys.

If what I saw in Arizona is any indication, Donald Veal could be a surprise success in 2010.

The Pirates could use some additional bats to go with all these arms, but overall this is an organization on the right track in terms of player development. The debut of Andrew McCutchen was just the first step.

Pirates Top 30 Prospects: October 2009 Edition

Charlie — Tue, 06 Oct 2009 00:01:57 -0000

Rudy Owens (photo: Dustin Baldwin)

Since the last Top 30 Prospects Feature was a fairly popular one, I thought it might be a good idea to make it a regular feature, appearing every couple months. So here's a new edition now that the season is over; I'll probably do another one when there's some winter ball data to work with, and then a few during the 2010 season. Let me know if you think this is a good idea.

All the caveats I described last time still apply, so if you have any questions about how I made the rankings, the first few paragraphs in the last post may be able to answer your questions.

Any player with less than 130 big-league at bats or less than 50 big-league innings pitched is eligible for inclusion, unless I arbitrarily determined he spent too much time in the big leagues despite not reaching those thresholds. (I'm leaving off Steven Jackson and Donald Veal for that reason.)

Ranking about #7 down to about #21 was the most difficult part of this list. Several guys near the end of that range actually played pretty well since the last ranking but moved down anyway, because they had other players leapfrogging them.

1. Pedro Alvarez, 3B, Altoona. Grade: A-. Previous ranking: 1. If there's anything to worry about here, it's that Alvarez won't hit for a high average in the majors; he batted only .259 in 54 at bats for the USA's World Cup team. He did, however, slug .574, and he's only just now finishing his first pro season.

2. Tony Sanchez, C, Lynchburg. Grade: B+. Previous ranking: 2. Again, I'm ranking him aggressively, and given the way he performed after being drafted I'm willing to give the front office the benefit of the doubt for now, and be open to the possibility that Sanchez is better than some prospect watchers thought he was.

3. Jose Tabata, OF, Indianapolis. Grade: B+. Previous ranking: 3. Tabata finished the season slowly, posting a .693 OPS in September. He also struggled against righties for Indy, posting a .608 OPS against them. Tabata has been a very good prospect for years and he keeps rising through the system, basically deserving the promotions he gets. But he has never really answered questions about whether he can hit for power. He'll get another shot in the Arizona Fall League.

4. Rudy Owens, SP, Lynchburg. Grade: B. Previous ranking: 7. I remain skeptical of Owens, who doesn't have shut-down stuff and allows too many fly balls. But after being promoted to Lynchburg shortly before the last list came out, he kept doing what he does, striking out his fair share of batters and hardly walking any. Carolina League batters did have a slightly easier time taking him deep than South Atlantic League hitters did, but Owens is a good pitching prospect until he proves otherwise.

5. Brad Lincoln, SP, Indianapolis. Grade: B. Previous ranking: 5. A perfectly nice pitching prospect, but he hardly dominated in 2009 in the minors, and he'll be 25 in May. Lincoln pitched well for Team USA, but didn't have a dominating strikeout rate in a small sample.

6. Starling Marte, OF, Lynchburg. Grade: B. Previous ranking: 8. We don't have much data to work with, but so far there's nothing not to like, except maybe the fact that Marte struck out four times as often as he walked--and even that isn't necessarily a big deal for a player who was promoted very aggressively in his first season in the U.S. Marte hits for average, he has some power, he runs like the wind, and the Pirates obviously love him. Sign me up.

7. Robbie Grossman, OF, West Virginia. Grade: B-. Previous ranking: 6. Grossman slugged just .308 after the All-Star break, and it's pretty likely that he was just tired. The terrific OBP suggests he's going to be a good player; the 164 strikeouts says beware.

8. Tim Alderson, SP, Altoona. Grade: B-. Previous ranking: 4. Yes, Alderson is a good pitching prospect who was a couple rungs higher in the system than most pitchers his age. But what he did after joining the Pirates organization should concern us a bit, as his strikeout rate went from iffy to downright bad.

9. Zach Von Rosenberg, SP, Bradenton. Grade: B-. Previous ranking: 9. Von Rosenberg pitched one scoreless inning in the GCL; as the best arm in a 2009 Pirates draft that was filled with interesting pitchers, he'll hopefully make it to West Virginia next year.

10. Chase D'Arnaud, SS, Lynchburg. Grade: B-. Previous ranking: 16. D'Arnaud hit well, with a good OBP, at West Virginia, then did basically the same thing but with more power at Lynchburg. He was perhaps a hint too old for the level, but it was his first pro season. He's a good, well-rounded player who hits for average, draws walks and plays good defense, and with the Bucs currently shaky in the middle infield, he'll have a clear path to the majors if he keeps hitting. He'll join Tabata in the Arizona Fall League.

11. Quinton Miller, SP, West Virginia. Grade: C+. Previous ranking: 17. Miller gets a bump after improving throughout his short season and posting a very respectable overall line as a 19-year-old at West Virginia. I probably underrated him a bit last time.

12. Jeff Locke, SP, Lynchburg. Grade: C+. Previous ranking: 11. The only reason Locke is ranked lower than before is that I felt I needed to move D'Arnaud and Miller up. Actually, the end to Locke's regular season was terrific--beginning with his July 29 start against Wilmington, he struck out 35 batters and walked just six, with an ERA of 2.58. It's way too early for despair about the Nate McLouth trade. Locke and Charlie Morton could make that deal a very, very good one for the Bucs, even if Gorkys Hernandez doesn't come along.

13. Daniel McCutchen, SP, Pittsburgh. Grade: C+. Previous ranking: 12. How you grade McCutchen depends upon how you weigh potential versus certainty, I suppose. As McCutchen showed, he's ready to be a functional back-of-the-rotation guy right now. The problem is that he's probably going to allow a ton of homers as a major-league starting pitcher.

14. Brett Lorin, SP, West Virginia. Grade: C+. Previous ranking: 13. No one ever talks about him, but Lorin struck out a batter an inning all year, and he posted a microscopic ERA after arriving in the Jack Wilson deal. Like Owens, he gives up lots of flyballs, and the ERA will probably take a hit after he's promoted to Lynchburg and faces more batters who have the ability to take him deep. (And ERA is pretty low on the list of tools we should use to evaluate minor league pitchers anyway.) Still, Lorin is a huge dude with a very good performance record, and I see no reason not to be cautiously optimistic about him.

15. Colton Cain, SP, No level. Grade: C+. Previous ranking: 14. Cain still hasn't pitched a pro inning yet, but he was probably the second-best arm the Bucs signed from the '09 draft.

16. Gorkys Hernandez, OF, Altoona. Grade: C. Previous ranking: 10. Hernandez was terrible for Altoona; you have to look pretty hard to find a facet of the game in which he excelled. He's ranked at #16 because of his age, and not because of anything he did this year.

17. Justin Wilson, SP, Lynchburg. Grade: C. Previous ranking: NR. Wilson, the Bucs' fifth-rounder in 2008, makes a big run up the charts with an excellent second half. His disastrous first half now looks like merely an extended adjustment period after an aggressive assignment in his first pro season.

18. Neil Walker, 3B, Pittsburgh. Grade: C. Previous ranking: 26. Walker finished brilliantly at Indianapolis, posting a .339 average in August that made his overall season line respectable. He didn't hit well in 36 at bats in the majors, but that's not such a concern. The problem is that he hits for low averages and, unlike, say, Alvarez, doesn't draw walks. Those are huge red flags. There have been a number of major league third basemen with Walker's basic profile (power, defense, an inability to get on base), such as Brandon Inge, Tony Batista and Pedro Feliz. But Walker has less power than any of them right now, and while he certainly could add it, it's worth pointing out that all those guys are or were frustrating, though still useful, players.

19. Bryan Morris, SP, Lynchburg. Grade: C. Previous ranking: 15. I know this is supposed to be a highly-regarded prospect, but as with Hernandez, it's just about impossible to find anything Morris did well this season. It's too early to write him off, but the Pirates would probably be wise to keep him at Lynchburg next year; he's had a ton of injuries, and he has probably moved a little too quickly.

20. Trent Stevenson, SP, Bradenton. Grade: C. Previous ranking: 19. The live-armed Stevenson was excellent in the GCL, allowing only two runs in his first 15 pro innings.

21. Brooks Pounders, SP, Bradenton. Grade: C. Previous ranking: 18. Don't read anything into Pounders being moved down; he did have one terrible start in August, but otherwise his year was as good as you'd hope. He moves down only because Wilson and Walker move up.

22. Ronald Uviedo, SP, Lynchburg. Grade: C. Previous ranking: 22. Uviedo slowed down after missing time in midsummer, but overall he pitched well, especially given that he started in 2009 after relieving in 2008.

23. Victor Black, SP, State College. Grade: C. Previous ranking: 30. Black, a compensation pick for losing out on Tanner Scheppers last year, finished very strongly for the Spikes, and it'll be interesting to see how he does with a heavier workload at West Virginia next year. Baseball America ranked him the sixth-best prospect in the New York-Penn League.

24. Jarek Cunningham, IF, Bradenton. Grade: C. Previous ranking: 24. Cunningham sat out the year with a torn ACL, but now he's back, playing in the Florida Instructional League. Watch out for him next year.

25. Quincy Latimore, OF, West Virginia. Grade: C. Previous ranking: 20. Latimore completely fell apart in August and September. As with a few other players on this list, it's possible he was just tired in his first full season. But Latimore's strike zone control was atrocious the whole year, and that can be the sort of stuff that collapses are made of too. Still, he was young for his level and has terrific power.

26. Exicardo Cayonez, OF, VSL Grade: C. Previous ranking: 25. The VSL season ended soon after the last ranking, so there's no reason to move Cayonez around too much.

27. Nathan Adcock, SP, Lynchburg. Grade: C. Previous ranking: 23. Adcock, another of the pitchers acquired in the Jack Wilson deal, struggled a bit down the stretch, although that's no reason for grave concern, since he pitched about 50 more innings in 2009 than he did in 2008. He'll presumably start out at Lynchburg again in 2010, but a quick start could have him in Altoona by summer.

28. Evan Chambers, OF, State College. Grade: C. Previous ranking: NR. The Pirates' 2009 third-round pick makes the list this time by improving throughout the year for the Spikes--after a .631 OPS in July, he posted an .881 in August and .867 in September. He walked in 20% of his plate appearances, which is impressive for a 19-year-old at any level, but he also struck out 78 times in 200 at bats. It appears he needs to work on finding pitches he can hit earlier in the count. He also struggled against righties.

29. Brock Holt, SS, State College. Grade: C. Previous ranking: NR. Like Chambers, Holt improved throughout State College's season, posting a .738 OPS before the break and a 1.052 OPS after it. He is also, for now, a shortstop. As WTM likes to point out, State College's home park appears to favor lefties like Holt, so it will be interesting to see how he adapts at State College. (Chambers is a righty, and he hit better on the road than at home; for Holt, it was the opposite.)

30. Josh Harrison, IF, Lynchburg. Grade: C. Previous ranking: 21. Harrison has been plain awful since the last ranking, and the chief reason why is that he struck out 19 times compared with only one walk since arriving from the Cubs system in the John Grabow deal. He has controlled the strike zone fairly well in the past, so I'm not sure what happened there. He's not old, but there's a lot working against him, particularly his size and the fact that he's unlikely to ever have enough power to be a regular third baseman.

OFF THE LIST FOR NOW: OF Rogelios Noris, RP Michael Dubee, SS Argenis Diaz.

ALSO WORTH WATCHING (and thanks to WTM and his awesome list of prospects in the Dominican and Venezuelan leagues): C Ramon Cabrera, C Joseph Schoenfeld, 1B Aaron Baker, 1B Calvin Anderson, SS Jordy Mercer, SS Jonathan Barrios, SS Brian Friday, SS Benjamin Gonzalez, SS Jordaneli Carvajal, IF Jim Negrych, 3B Eric Avila, OF David Pino, OF Jesus Vasquez, SP Zack Dodson, SP Jeff Inman, SP Nate Baker, SP Nelson Pereira, SP Mitchell Fienemann, SP Zachary Fuesser, SP Hunter Strickland, SP Aaron Pribanic, SP Jhonathan Ramos, SP Roberto Espinoza, SP Clario Perez, SP Porfirio Lopez, SP Fraylin Campos, SP Jason Erickson, SP Daniel Moskos, SP Eric Hacker, SP Tyler Herron, RP Diego Moreno, RP Casey Erickson, RP Anthony Claggett, RP Jeff Sues

Pirates discover the Reds' Secret Underground Lehr. Reds lose, 3-1.

Brendanukkah — Sat, 03 Oct 2009 04:07:16 -0000

More photos » by Al Behrman - AP

Sure, Brandon looks like he's concentrating on the play, but secretly he's beginning to suspect he's not going to be getting that $2 million from David Letterman. (AP Photo/Al Behrman)

Browse more photos »

Joe Nuxhall Memorial Honorary Star of the Game

Andy LaRoche. He went 2-3 and drove in two runs.

Key Plays

The Brothers McCutchen did the damage in the third inning. Lehr walked Daniel McCutchen, then Andrew McCutchen doubled. That's when Andy LaRoche hit his single. Pirates 2, Reds 0.
In the fourth inning, Lastings Milledge went all Blastings Milledge and hit a home run. Pirates 3, Reds 0.
The Reds didn't have much in the way of offense, but Wladimir Balentien did hit a home run in the seventh inning. Pirates 3, Reds 1.

via www.fangraphs.com

Other Notes

On both of his hits, Andy LaRoche was thrown out trying to stretch his single into a double.
Double-machine Paul Janish hit a double. Then Joey Votto hit what should have been a double, but Lastings Milledge made a nice catch. Flashtings-the-Leather Milledge.
Arthur Rhodes apparently broke his toe on Sept. 4. He then pitched in eight games. And now he's on the disabled list. Thanks for the great season, Colossus!
Walt Jocketty also broke his toe when he was kicking Dick Pole to the curb.
This was Daniel McCutchen's first career victory. Shame it came against the Reds, but congratulations kid. You prevented the Pirates from losing 100 games this season.

Final - 10.2.2009	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H	E
Pittsburgh Pirates	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	0	0	3	5	0
Cincinnati Reds	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	1	5	0
WP: Daniel McCutchen (1 - 2) SV: Matt Capps (27) LP: Justin Lehr (5 - 3)

Complete Coverage >

Pirates Avoid 100-Loss Season with 3-1 Victory Over Reds

Charlie — Sat, 03 Oct 2009 01:48:48 -0000

More photos » by Al Behrman - AP

2 months ago: Pittsburgh Pirates' Lastings Milledge reacts after hitting a solo home run off Cincinnati Reds' Justin Lehr in the fourth inning of a baseball game, Friday, Oct. 2, 2009, in Cincinnati. (AP Photo/Al Behrman)

Browse more photos »

And there was noooooooo doubt about it.

There were some negatives here, like the gargantuan upper-deck homer Daniel McCutchen gave up to Wladimir Balentien, the Pirates letting Justin Lehr strike them out six times, and Andy LaRoche's twice getting caught trying to stretch a single into a double. But overall this was a nice game--Lastings Milledge homered, Andy LaRoche plated two runs, and Andrew McCutchen doubled, walked and stole a base. And Dan McCutchen grabbed his first major league win, finishing his season on a high note by striking out five in six and a third, while only allowing a run on that homer by Balentien. The bullpen held up, too.

No Relation finishes his season with a perfectly palatable 4.21 ERA and three consecutive quality starts. Not bad for a rookie, although he continues to need to work on his home runs allowed. Six in about 36 innings, or about 30 over the course of a full season, is too many. He's earned a clean shot at a full-time rotation job next year, though, which means he might bump Kevin Hart to the bullpen if there aren't any trades and everyone stays healthy.

Pirates Improbably Beat Dodgers on Lastings Milledge's Walk-Off Hit

Charlie — Sun, 27 Sep 2009 20:56:33 -0000

More photos » by Gene J. Puskar - AP

2 months ago: Pittsburgh Pirates' Lastings Milledge (85) leaps into the arms of teammate Zach Duke, left, after hitting a base clearing, three-run walk-off double off Los Angeles Dodgers closer Jonathan Broxton in the ninth inning of a baseball game in Pittsburgh Sunday, Sept. 27, 2009. The Pirates won 6-5. (AP Photo/Gene J. Puskar)

Browse more photos »

I can't believe the Pirates won this game, which you could feel them losing as soon as Matt Capps entered a tie game in the ninth. The Dodgers could have clinched the NL West with a win today, but thanks to a crazy ninth-inning comeback by the Bucs, they'll have to wait.

The Pirates took an early lead by scoring two runs in the third on a wild pitch and an RBI double by Andy LaRoche. Daniel McCutchen started and got some help from the Dodgers, who ran themselves into two outs in what could have been a troublesome fourth inning. Still, he pitched well overall, allowing only two runs in six innings and outlasting Clayton Kershaw. The Dodgers tied the game in the seventh, though, and the Bucs couldn't retake the lead in the bottom of the inning despite a hustling one-out triple by Andrew McCutchen.

Joel Hanrahan returned and pitched a scoreless eighth, leaving with a score of 2-2. Normally I'm a fan of using your closer in high-leverage situations like a tie game in the ninth, but that's only when your closer is actually your best relief pitcher, which Capps plainly isn't right now. I found myself wondering why John Russell didn't just leave Hanrahan in. Anyway, Capps gave up three runs, leaving behind a 5-2 deficit.

Delwyn Young began the bottom of the inning with a single off the Dodgers' excellent closer Jonathan Broxton, though, and Brandon Moss and Andy LaRoche followed that with singles of their own. LaRoche's brought in Young and left the Bucs with men at second and third following an error by Rafael Furcal. The Dodgers intentionally walked Garrett Jones for the third time in the game--it was a weird game--and Lastings Milledge followed that with a long hit to right-center that probably only should have scored two runs, but was misplayed by Andre Ethier, allowing Jones to come home. What a wild game. It wasn't quite the Pirates coming back for six runs against Billy Wagner and the Astros, but it was close.

UPDATE: And... Capps gets the win. Traditional statistics!

Dodgers Look To Wrap Up Division Today

Eric Stephen — Sun, 27 Sep 2009 13:00:18 -0000

More photos » by Jack Dempsey - AP

Your throne awaits

Browse more photos »

Team	W-L	GB
Dodgers	93-62	---
Rockies	87-68	6

Sure, the Dodgers have clinched a playoff berth, but they are just getting started. Their magic number to clinch the National League West is just one, so a win this morning against Pittsburgh would get the job done. Either one Dodger win or Rockies' loss would assure the Dodgers of at least a tie for the division. But since a tie between the two teams would assure that both are in the playoffs, the division goes to the team that wins the tiebreaker. The first tiebreaker happens to be head-to-head record, and the Dodgers have already clinched the season series against the Rockies, winning 12 of their 15 match ups.

Clayton Kershaw takes the mound for his first start in 23 days. Kershaw, who struck out four Nationals in two hitless innings of relief Tuesday night, will be on a pitch count today, likely around 70 pitches or so. This will be Kershaw's 50th start as a Dodger. My, how time flies.

Daniel McCutchen, who allowed four runs in five innings at Dodger Stadium last week, gets the start for the Pirates.

Ronnie Belliard last night had three hits and three runs scored, including his fifth home run since joining the Dodgers. He is hitting .333/.385/.625 in 22 games in blue.

Casey Blake, originally in the lineup Saturday, was scratched because Joe Torre "took him out of the lineup because he didn't want to risk him re-injuring his left hamstring on the rain-soaked field," per Dylan Hernandez of the Los Angeles Times. With a storm still in the Pittsburgh area and rain likely today, I wouldn't be surprised if Blake sits again.

In former Dodger news, Delwyn Young is in the worst slump if his young career. He has seven hits in his last 76 at-bats, and is hitting .092/.169/.145 since August 26. Andy LaRoche, on the other hand, homered last night, and is hitting .279/.343/.459 in September.

Happy 32nd birthday Vicente Padilla. May you enjoy these next eight days, the final eight days you will be on the active roster for the Dodgers.

**********

Check out Xeifrank's simulation of today's game here.

Don't forget to RSVP for True Blue LA Day at Dodger Stadium, on the next-to-last day of the regular season, October 3 against the Rockies. There are five tickets left.

Get your guesses in for our today's "One, Two, Three Strikes, You're Out," here.

Game Time: 10:35am

TV: Prime Ticket

Baseball Reference Preview

Dodgers Punch Ticket For Postseason

Eric Stephen — Sun, 27 Sep 2009 02:17:30 -0000

More photos » by Gene J. Puskar - AP

Welcome to the playoffs.

Browse more photos »

The Dodgers' 8-4 victory over the Pirates tonight has clinched a playoff berth for the Dodgers, their second straight postseason trip and third in four seasons. Now that the Braves can no longer catch the Dodgers, the worst possible scenario for the Dodgers is winning the wild card.

Team	W-L	GB
Dodgers	93-62	---
Rockies	87-67	5½
Braves	84-70	8½

More importantly, this officially moves the Dodgers' magic number to clinch the National League West to ~~two~~ one, because the Dodgers hold the tiebreaker over the Rockies by virtue of winning the season series with the Rockies, winning 12 of 15 games so far this season. The Dodgers can clinch the division as soon as tomorrow.

This is the first time the Dodgers have made the postseason in three out of four seasons since the 1963-1965-1966 run, which of course were all World Series appearances. The Dodgers also made the World Series in four of five seasons in 1952-1953-1955-1956.

The Dodgers last made the playoffs in successive seasons in 1995 & 1996. The last time they won the division in two straight years was 1977 & 1978, when they won two straight National League pennants.

This is Joe Torre's 14th straight playoff appearance, tying him with Bobby Cox for the major league record.

The Dodgers currently have the best record in the National League, with a 3-game lead over the Cardinals, and a 3½-game lead over the Phillies.

2009 Dodgers Checklist
	Make The Playoffs
	Win National League West
	Best Record in the NL
	Win NLDS
	Win NL Pennant
	Win World Series

**********

As far as the game itself, the Dodgers opened the scoring early. Rafael Furcal singled to start the game, but was thrown at second base trying to stretch it into a double. Juan Pierre followed with a triple, which was followed by a Manny Ramirez ground-rule double for an early 1-0 lead. The Dodgers added a pair of runs in the fourth inning, highlighted by a double by Mark Loretta, making only his second start since August 29.

A home run by Old Friend Andy LaRoche in the bottom of the fourth cut the Dodger lead to 4-1, a lead Randy Wolf took into the seventh inning. Three walks, two singles, and two pitchers later, the Pirates rallied for three runs to take the lead.

The Dodgers responded with a rally of their own in the top of the eighth, taking the lead on a pair of bases-loaded walks. Jim Thome followed with his biggest moment as a Dodger to date, with a two-run single to widen the lead to 7-4. Ronnie Belliard added his fifth home run as a Dodger in the ninth inning to provide the final margin.

George Sherrill picked up the win for the Dodgers, his first win since joining the team. That brings the total number of Dodgers to get a win this season to 22, a club record. In MLB history, only the Padres (23 in 2002, 24 in 2009) have had more pitchers get a win in one season.

Randy Wolf got yet another no-decision, his 16th of the season, tying Roy Oswalt for the MLB lead. Since moving to Los Angeles in 1958, the only other Dodger pitcher with more no-decisions than Wolf was Odalis Perez, with 18 in 2004.

Clayton Kershaw takes the hill tomorrow morning against Daniel McCutchen, as the Dodgers try to clinch their second straight National League West division title.

WP - George Sherrill (1-1): 0.1 inning, 1 hit, 1 walk

LP - Denny Bautista (1-1): 0.1 IP, 1 hit, 2 runs, 1 walk, 1 strikeout

Box Score

Could the Pirates Lose 110 Games in 2010?

Charlie — Fri, 25 Sep 2009 21:50:23 -0000

More photos » by Alan Diaz - AP

A thought experiment: Brandon Moss may be bad, but if he starts the season hitting .100, is he really a .100 hitter?

Browse more photos »

That this post even needs to be written speaks volumes about where the Pirates are right now. But despite the Bucs' spectacular collapse since the trades, I think it's far too early to worry, as many of you have, about losing 110 games next year. It's true that the Pirates' play over the last month would put them on pace for far worse than a 110-loss season. But that doesn't mean a 110-loss season will actually happen. A 110-loss team would be among the worst teams in modern baseball history. In the last 40 years, only two teams, the 2003 Tigers and the 2004 Diamondbacks, have lost as many as 110 games in a season, which means that if the Pirates lost 110, they would have to be considered one of the worst teams in modern baseball history. I think there is plenty of evidence that shows that they are bad. I don't think there is nearly enough to show that they are historically bad.

The irony here is that, way back in 2007, I myself was pointing out that the 2010 Pirates were going to be spectacularly bad. I even suggested what some of you are now saying--that they could lose 110 games. Most of the core players on that 2007 team--Jason Bay, Adam LaRoche, Freddy Sanchez, Jose Castillo, Xavier Nady, Salomon Torres--were scheduled to become free agents after 2009, and Jack Wilson had an expensive 2010 option. In addition, they had one of the worst general managers in the history of baseball at the helm and next to nothing in the farm system. That the Bucs would be quite awful in 2010 has been obvious for a long time now, and frankly Neal Huntington bears very little responsibility for it. In 2007, it looked like a perfect storm of a terrible big-league team, no prospects and inept management was brewing, and I think it was maybe only a little hyperbolic to write that a 110-loss campaign in 2010 was likely.

The reason I don't think it's likely now is that Huntington has taken enough steps to improve the 2010 situation that I think we can remove "historically bad" from the set of likely possibilities for now.

I realize that's a counterintuitive conclusion, since clearly Huntington's eyes are set at a point well beyond 2010 and the Bucs aren't playing very well right now. But without Huntington there would be no Ross Ohlendorf or Daniel McCutchen, who were acquired in the Nady deal. There would be no Charlie Morton, since the Pirates under Littlefield would not allow Nate McLouth to start and therefore to acquire value on the trade market. It's quite possible Littlefield would have started Nyjer Morgan in 2009, but back in mid-2007 his breakout would have been extremely hard to foresee (since Morgan hadn't even made his major league debut at that point), and trading him for Lastings Milledge and Joel Hanrahan would have been even harder to foresee. Without Huntington the Pirates probably still would have had Ian Snell, but they wouldn't have Ronny Cedeno or Jeff Clement. Those guys--Ohlendorf, Morton, Milledge, Hanrahan, Cedeno, Clement--are all major league players. Maybe not great ones, in some cases, but certainly useful ones, and one characteristic of 110-loss teams is that they have very few useful players.

Also, a number of decent prospects--Pedro Alvarez, Jose Tabata, Brad Lincoln, Chase D'Arnaud, Rudy Owens, Ron Uviedo, Jeff Locke, Tim Alderson--will be either in the high minors or on the verge of arriving there. That may sound like a trivial point, but actually it isn't. 110-loss seasons can be avoided simply by having a storehouse of players who might be able to fill in competently.

Now, maybe Littlefield would have traded Bay and some of the other core players, too. I doubted that at the time, though, because doing so would have meant admitting that he basically had nothing after five or six years on the job, and because he was basically acting like 2010 did not exist, as if the Pirates would be contracted before the season started. That was my reason for thinking 110 losses was possible then. Now it appears that Huntington is at least aware that the Pirates will be playing baseball next season. That might not mean much, but it's something.

The most critical point here, though, is that losing 110 games is spectacularly difficult to do. It requires either extreme negligence or a combination of negligence and bad luck. Merely being a very poor team, which I agree the Pirates probably will be, simply does not get the job done. Let's take the two teams that lost 110, for example.

The 2004 Diamondbacks reached 110 losses through both negligence and luck. Not only did they have the worst offense in the league--an outcome that is surely also a possibility for the 2010 Pirates--but they really had no starting rotation after Randy Johnson (who was brilliant) and Brandon Webb. The five pitchers who had the most starts for them were Casey Fossum, Steve Sparks, Casey Daigle, Edgar Gonzalez, and Lance Cormier, and all of those guys had ERAs over six. Arizona finished 27th in the majors in ERA, and one of the three teams that fared worse was the Rockies. And the Diamondbacks still only got to 110 through bad luck--their Pythagorean record was "only" 54-108.

The 2010 Bucs really don't even belong in the same conversation with the '03 Tigers, who lost 119 games. The Tigers only had one pitcher throw more than 20 innings with an ERA below 4.50; the '09 Pirates, by comparison, have seven pitchers currently in their organization who have done that this year. The Tigers basically had one good hitter (Dmitri Young), and the lower part of their lineup and their bench were filled with guys (Brandon Inge, Warren Morris, Ramon Santiago, Shane Halter, Gene Kingsale, Omar Infante, Matt Walbeck, Andres Torres) who just didn't belong in the majors. It wasn't a case of a team merely being bad; it was a case of a team simply not taking the steps necessary to ensure that there was a real team on the field.

When I say that the Pirates are unlikely to lose 110 games next year, I'm not paying the Pirates a compliment. I'm just saying these 110-loss prognostications are the result of either over-the-top despair about the Bucs' recent play, or a misunderstanding about how incredibly hard it actually is to lose 110.

Another possibility is that people think you can extrapolate the Bucs' play the last couple months over the course of an entire season. You can't. By way of example, let's look at Brandon Moss. Let's say he's the Bucs' fourth outfielder next year and he starts the season 6-for-60, for a batting average of .100.

Now, we would be perfectly justified to say that Moss is terrible. We already would have been thinking that Moss is pretty terrible, given the way he hit in 2009. And then he went and started 2010 6-for-60. Ugh! Terrible.

But would be justified to say that he will continue to bat .100? Well, no. True, he already batted .100 in his first 60 at bats, but hitting .100 over the long haul is especially hard to do. First of all, we have to consider that Brandon Moss has, at various points, done things that suggest he can be much better than a .100 hitter. For example, in 2009 he's batting .241. Not very good, but way better than .100. Also, he made his way through the minors and got all the way to the big leagues, even briefly joining a good team, the Boston Red Sox. He has some skill, and players with some skill can usually hit better than .100. Even Mario Mendoza hit .215 for his career.

So we'd be justified to be annoyed at Moss' poor start. We'd also be justified to factor that poor start into our guesses about what he might do going forward. But it wouldn't make much sense to predict he'll be a .100 hitter.

Guessing the 2010 Bucs will lose 110 games is like that. Yes, they've been extremely bad since the trades. But they have three downright functional starting pitchers in Ohlendorf, Zach Duke and Paul Maholm, plus Morton, who easily could make his way into that category next year. They have Andrew McCutchen, who's a plain old good player. They have Garrett Jones who, while due for some serious regression next year, has probably staked a pretty reasonable claim that he's at least going to be useful. They have Ryan Doumit, who in 2008 was a force as an offensively-minded catcher. They have Milledge and Hanrahan, who have shown promise since arriving. They have guys like Ronny Cedeno, Andy LaRoche and Jason Jaramillo who, while they're not exactly inspiring, have shown they at least belong in the majors. There's also at least a reasonable chance that Pedro Alvarez is going to burst onto the scene at some point next season and go nuts.

I'm not saying that's much. It isn't. I'm saying it doesn't take much to avoid 110 losses, and that while anything's possible, I think the Pirates have what it takes. Don't take that as wild-eyed optimism, because again, it isn't. I'm only saying that I think the Pirates can avoid a complete disaster season, and the fact that they've actually been a disaster since the trades doesn't really change that.

Ethier & The Gang Lead Dodgers Over Pirates

Eric Stephen — Tue, 15 Sep 2009 06:03:02 -0000

More photos » by Gus Ruelas - AP

Browse more photos »

Andre Ethier provided the power at the top, and the bottom of the order came through as well, propelling the Dodgers to a 6-2 win over Pittsburgh in the opener of a three-game set at Dodger Stadium.

Ethier's two-run shot to center in the fifth inning broke a 2-2 tie, and was yet another home circuit clout for the Dodger right fielder. Ethier now has 20 home runs at Dodger Stadium, tied for the fifth-most in club history. Thanks to the telecast on Prime Ticket, we learned that Gary Sheffield (in 2000) and Adrian Beltre (in 2004) share the record with 23 Dodger Stadium home runs in one season.

The bottom of the lineup produced as well:

Casey Blake was on base in all four plate appearances, and scored two runs
Russell Martin had two hits, including his 18th double on the season. Martin has a season-high streak of four straight games with an extra-base hit.
Orlando Hudson chimed in with three hits and two runs batted in

It wasn't pretty tonight for Jon Garland, but he managed to get through six innings, again, for his second win in three starts as a Dodger. Garland loaded the bases with one out in the fifth, but managed to get out of it without a run scoring, despite throwing 23 pitches. Garland allowed single runs in the fourth and fifth, but it could have been worse. Orlando Hudson made a leaping catch of a line drive with two on and one out in the third inning, and stepped on second base to double off Andre McCutchen. Matt Kemp also made a nice running catch near the warning track of a ball hit by Lastings Milledge in the second. Garland threw 20 pitches or more in four of his first five innings, and was at 102 pitches through five, but managed to retire the Pirates in order on 10 pitches to conclude his night. Garland has now pitched at least six innings in 19 of his last 20 starts.

The terrific trio of Hong-Chih Kuo, George Sherrill, and Jonathan Broxton closed out the game, as the well rested group of relievers retired all nine batters they faced. Dodger pitchers retired the final 14 Pirate batters of the game.

Randy Wolf makes his return to the mound tomorrow night against Zach Duke of the Pirates, dubbed "The Pride of Waco, Texas" by Vin Scully tonight.

In San Francisco, the Giants welcomed back Tim Lincecum by beating the Rockies 9-1. The Dodgers NL West lead is now at four games over Colorado.

Magic Numbers
To win NL West: 13
To clinch a playoff spot: 11

WP - Jon Garland (10-11): 6 IP, 6 hits, 2 runs, 3 walks, 3 strikeouts

LP - Daniel McCutchen (0-2): 5 IP, 7 hits, 4 runs, 2 walks, 1 strikeout

Box Score

UPDATE: If you want to hear my interview on Sunday night's DodgerTalk with Josh Suchon and Jon Weisman, here it is:

DodgerTalk Interview 091309 (this is a large file, over 12 MB)

Note to self: when trying to say "lightning rod," don't say "divining rod."

Dodgers Return Home To Face Pirates

Eric Stephen — Mon, 14 Sep 2009 21:30:07 -0000

Photo via Flickr

View full size photo »

The Dodgers return home tonight to face the Pirates, on free Dodger Dog night at Dodger Stadium. All fans at the game tonight will receive a voucher for a free Dodger Dog as they enter the stadium. Tonight is also USC Night at Dodger Stadium.

Somewhat shockingly, this the first time the Dodgers have seen the Pirates this season. The Pirates are spiraling downward, and have lost 33 of their last 45 games, having been outscored by 98 runs -- over two per game!! -- during that stretch. 2009 is the 17th consecutive losing season for Pittsburgh, a record for the four major professional sports. The Dodgers have only won one of their last seven home series, so the Pirates just might be what the doctor ordered.

The Pirates tonight will feature the only two McCutchens in MLB history, as Andrew McCutchen mans centerfield behind his non-related pitching teammate, Daniel McCutchen. James McCutchen "Doc" McJames, who played for the Dodgers in 1899 and 1901, doesn't count as McCutchen was only his middle name. Who the heck names their son James McJames, anyway? I hope James McDonald doesn't have a brother named Donald.

Andrew McCutchen has had a nice debut with the Pirates this season, helping soothe the fans still steaming over the loss of Nate McLouth. The 22-year old McCutchen is hitting .270/.347/.459 with 11 home runs in 88 games, with a .353 wOBA that ranks seventh among all MLB centerfielders. Andrew hit three home runs in one game earlier this season; Daniel has allowed three home runs in his first two major league starts. The 26-year old pitcher has walked just 1.9 batters per nine innings in four minor league seasons.

Jon Garland takes the hill for the Dodgers, his second home start with the club. Garland has pitched six innings or longer in 18 of his last 19 starts, with a 3.55 ERA during that span. As a Dodger, Garland is 1-0 with a 3.46 ERA.

In the month of September, James Loney leads the club in hits (16), runs (7), home runs (3), RBI (10), and walks (6).

**********

Top 2009 draft pitck Aaron Miller gets the start for the Great Lakes Loons tonight in the third and deciding game of the Midwest League semifinals against the Fort Wayne TinCaps. Game time is 4:05pm, and you can listen online by clicking here or here. You can also follow the box score here.

In other minor league news, the Dodgers have named Scott Elbert and Dee Gordon as the Branch Rickey Minor League Pitcher and Player of the Year, respectively. Elbert, who was 4-4 with a 3.84 ERA between Double A and Triple A this season, was the top-ranked Dodger prospect by both Phil Gurnee and Canuck Dodger in our midseason prospect report. Kensai rated the 24-year old Elbert as his third-best prospect. Gordon, who led the Midwest League with 73 steals and 12 triples, was ranked sixth, eighth, and 10th by Phil, Kensai, and Canuck, respectively. Gordon, 21, shared league MVP honors with teammate Kyle Russell.

**********

Check out Xeifrank's simulation of today's game here.

Don't forget to RSVP for True Blue LA Day at Dodger Stadium, on the next-to-last day of the regular season, October 3 against the Rockies.

Get your guesses in for our today's "One, Two, Three Strikes, You're Out," here.

Game Time: 7:10pm

TV: Prime Ticket

Baseball Reference Preview