SB Nation - Brett Gardner

Why I Love the Vazquez Deal

Brandon C. — Wed, 23 Dec 2009 15:00:17 -0000

More photos » by Bill Kostroun - AP

FILE - In this Sept. 7, 2009, file photo, ~~New York Yankees'~~ Atlanta Braves' Melky Cabrera follows through on a RBI-single during the third inning of the second baseball game of a double-header against the Tampa Bay RaysMonday, Sept. 7, 2009 at Yankee Stadium in New York. Pitcher Javy Vazquez was traded back to the Yankees by the Atlanta Braves on Tuesday, Dec. 22, 2009, for Cabrera, a move that pushed New York's payroll for next season over $200 million.

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Many Yankees fans seem to be up in arms over this five-player deal. The Yankees got Javier Vazquez and Boone Logan, while the Braves got Melky Cabrera, Mike Dunn, and Arodys Vizcaino in the deal, which was announced last night.

Basically, the Yankees received a quality 3rd-4th starter for a 2nd Outfielder at best (probably 3rd), a lefty-reliever that throws hard but has little control, and a prospect that was last seen in Staten Island.

So, I ask, why the scrutiny?

The Yankees got the 3rd starter that they were looking for this entire offseason, while giving away replaceable parts. How exactly do you replace these players? Here is how:

Melky Cabrera: Currently, the man replacing Cabrera is Brett Gardner. In the future we may see the Yankees sign either Mark DeRosa or Johnny Damon. If the Yankees stick with Gardner it is a slight deduction in overall play. Melky has a better arm, while Gardner is faster. Melky has an OK amount of power, while Gardner can get the little hits that help win games. If the Yankees sign DeRosa or Damon, it is an immediate improvement in left.

Mike Dunn: Currently the man replacing Dunn is Logan. Logan was the other pitcher acquired in the deal with the Braves. Dunn looks like he will have a bright career as a lefty-reliever, while the Yankees are left with only two real lefty relievers of their own. Damaso Marte is a lock, while Logan looks like an up in the air candidate to make the team. Do the Yankees go into the season with one lefty? Is Zach Kroenke returned by the Diamondbacks? We will see. Overall, Dunn might be the worst piece lost in the trade.

Arodys Vizcaino: Since he pitched last year in Staten Island, the Yankees really do not lose anything from their current team. He might have a great career, but it will certainly not start in 2010.

One More Note: Seems like many fans are only upset because, well, he is Melky!

Look at it this way:

If the Yankees acquired Melky Vazquez and Boone Logan for Javier Cabrera, Mike Dunn, and Arodys Vizcaino wouldn't that be amazing news? Just saying.

TRADE GRADE: I give it a B+ because the Yankees can replace the players traded and the Yankees get a top-notch starter in Vazquez. The only way this can go wrong is if the Yankees cannot replace Dunn, OR Vazquez struggles in the Bronx. Now, if the Yankees traded Cervelli....it is obviously an F. Francisco Cervelli can not and will not be traded! (Shoutout to the Cervelli Fan Club!)

Quick Update: ESPNEWS' bottom line says "Yankees swap Melky Cabrera for Braves' Javier Vazquez" So...Mike Dunn and the #2 prospect in the Yankees farm systemaccording to Kevin Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus, Arodys Vizcaino don't matter? Just pointing that out....

MLB Trade Rumors: Carlos Zambrano to the Yankees??

raygu — Tue, 22 Dec 2009 14:00:27 -0000

More photos » by Paul Beaty - AP

2 months ago: Chicago Cubs starter Carlos Zambrano delivers a pitch against the Pittsburgh Pirates in the first inning during a baseball game at Wrigley Field in Chicago, Wednesday, Sept. 30, 2009. (AP Photo/Paul Beaty)

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Last night ESPN's Buster Olney tweeted that the Yankees were closing in on a trade for a starting pitcher:

Heard this: Yankees working very hard tonight on deal for starting pitcher. Remember that they came close to deal for Aaron Harang in summer

The Harang rumor was shot down by Mark Feinsand from the New York Daily News:

Yankees are apparently close to a deal for a starting pitcher, says a source. Still working on who, but I'm told it's not a salary dump deal

If its not a salary dump, that could rule out the Reds Aaron Harang and the Braves Derek Lowe. How about the Cubs Carlos Zambrano? While driving into work yesterday, Holden Cushner and Jom Bowden were talking about the Yankees interest in Zambrano and mentioned that the Cubs had interest in Brett Gardner to play CF (another good speed, good D, no power outfielder).

The Cubs MLB.com beat reporter Carrie Muskat posted the following on her blog yesterday:

According to a story in the New York Post, GM Brian Cashman asked Jim Hendry about possibly acquiring Carlos Zambrano but the Yankees did not like the asking price. Zambrano, who has a full no-trade clause, is owed $53.75 million over the next three years. Another report says the Yankees did not even inquire about Zambrano.

What is certain is that Hendry never asked Zambrano's agent, Barry Praver, about whether the pitcher would waive the no-trade clause to go to New York. Praver said Monday that Zambrano is not interested in doing so.

I am sure Jim Hendry asked for the moon to try to make up for his signing of Milton Bradley last offseason. We all know how that turned out. Hendry recently dealt Bradley to the Mariners and took on Carlos Silva's bad contract in return. Could Hendry revisit the Yankees trde proposal for Big Z now that he had to take on Silva's contract and is still looking for a centerfielder?

I think it is very possible. I think Big Z reconsiders and waives his no-trade clause to get traded to the Yankees. He would have a great chance at finally winning a World Series also. Plus, the Yankees have to answer the Red Sox signing of John Lackey last week with a big name. Big Z is a big name.

Update (10:00 am) tweet from Joel Sherman:

so the trade is vazquez and boone logan to #Yankees for melky cabrera, mike dunn and arodys vizcaino, that is now confirmed by Post

Poll

What pitcher should the Yankees deal for?

News Round-Up: The Tools of Ignorance

jscape2000 — Sat, 19 Dec 2009 12:00:41 -0000

Tyler Kepner has the shake down on the Johnson-Damon drama:

Johnson is not precisely taking over for Damon. In the big picture, the Yankees are swapping two older left-handed hitters who made $26 million in 2009 (Damon and Hideki Matsui) for two younger left-handed hitters whose contracts average about $14 million in 2010 (Curtis Granderson and Johnson). They are replacing a speed guy and a slow guy with another speed guy and another slow guy.

I know some folks wanted Damon back; some think Cash made a wrong choice, and the Yanks' will regret it when they have a sore Johnson in June.

These are negotiations. I pretend that I'm not budging, you pretend that your not budging. Sometimes, one of us thinks we're not serious when we really are. The difference in real value of Damon/Matsui vs Granderson/Johnson is marginal, and this gives Cashman a little more leverage in future negotiations with Scott Boras. Next time Boras makes an outrageous demand to Brian Cashman, and Cash replies "That's unreasonable, so I'll go to my other options," Boras will be quicker to buckle.

Greg Fertel of Pending Pinstripes thinks that Brett Gardner could be a better left fielder than Jason Bay next season when we weigh offense, defense and baserunning.

I call malarkey because Joe G. proved in September and the postseason that he doesn't think Gardner gives him the best chance to win. If Joe G. has someone else, anyone else to run out there, he will use the other guy. Whether it's an ice-cold Melky or Nick Swisher having a Soriano-esque bout of futility at the plate, Joe G. thinks that GGBG's speed can only be a weapon off the bench.

Gardner has the potential (assuming no regression in the notoriously fickle UZR), but I don't think he'd ever get the opportunity.

Who's the greatest Yankee to ever wear #14? YankeeNumbers gives you the full run-down. My short list is down to Lou Piniella, Bill Skowron and Miguel Cairo. Grand Central has some work to do to put himself in that company.

The most important baseball man to ever wear 14 as a Yankee is easy, though: Bobby Cox.

Donnie Collins replaced Chad Jennings at the SWB Blog, and he's doing a fine job. He notes that former Yankee farmhand Eric Hacker has signed a minor league deal with the Giants- Hacker was DFA'd and traded to the Pirates for Romulo Sanchez, who is currently on the Yankees' 40-man and has an outside shot at making the bullpen out of Spring Training.

This is something else that Cashman has done well lately: holding on to the right guys, and flipping the marginal guys for other marginal guys he can have an extra season or two to develop.

Pitchers and catchers report in the longest 8 weeks of the year.

I try to always cite my sources. I think I link to one of Cot's Baseball Contracts, Baseball-Reference, and Fangraphs every single day. And there's a reason: they're awesome. The work they do updating and sharing their respective information is as important as anything happening on the internet (from a baseball standpoint).

In the spirit of the season, I want to say a huge thank you to the folks who run each of those sites. What I do would be impossible without what they do.

New York Yankees notes: Much hinges on Damon's decision

Ed Valentine — Fri, 11 Dec 2009 13:21:46 -0000

Who is in left field? Who is at designated hitter? Those are the basic lineup questions about our New York Yankees right now, and they all hinge -- of course -- on whether Johnny Damon will accept a contract offer from the Yankees much shorter and less lucrative than uber-agent Scott Boras would like.

Meanwhile, there is much discussion of other options should Damon decide to walk. GM Brian Cashman can talk about Juan Miranda all he wants, but we all know that is incredibly unlikely to happen.

By the way, with the Rule 5 drafting of Jason Hoffmann another question seems to be whether or not speedster Brett Gardner will be part of the outfield mix. Seems the Chicago White Sox, and possibly the Kansas City Royals, are asking about Gardner's availability.

Personally, I love Gardner. Some folks think Jason Tyner or Joey Gathright -- speedy slap hitters who have never hit enough to play regularly, when they look at Gardner. To me, he's a lot closer to Scott Podsednik, a guy who can hit enough, defend and wreak havoc on the bases. Obviously, it's not going to be with the Yankees, but I still believe Gardner can play regularly -- and do it well -- for somebody.

I mentioned Hoffmann, the Rule 5 pick, earlier. He seems like a useful reserve outfielder with some tools, and The Baseball Analysts are wondering why the Los Angeles Dodgers seemed to be trying so hard to lose him.

So why wasn't he on the 40 man roster, and why was he DFAed in September? The answer seems to be that he was redundant on the Dodgers. The 4th outfielder role is currently held down by Xavier Paul. Jason Repko also sits higher on the blue totem pole. I would have been surprised to see anyone grab Trayvon Robinson in the rule 5 draft, but if the Dodgers perceived that as a threat, it could certainly be argued that he deserves protection more than Hoffman.

Perhaps it just says more about the Yankees than the Dodgers. The Yankees currently have 4 outfielders on the 40-man roster. The first two, Curtis Granderson and Nick Swisher, are clearly going to be penciled into most Yankees line-ups in 2010. The other two outfielders would be lucky to be penciled in at all. Melky Cabrera is a glorified backup centerfielder. He simply does not have the production to justify being played in a corner outfield position. With the Granderson acquisition, Melky will be reduced to being a 2nd choice centerfielder, and a last choice corner outfielder. The last outfielder, Brett Gardner is not even a good option for a 4th outfielder. How Gardner has still has a job confuses me.

Hoffman would fit in well as a 4th outfielder. He can play any outfield position, and his production will likely justify his being played on a corner. He isn't a great base stealer, but he has speed on the bases, making him a good option as a pinch runner. So this replacement-level outfielder, the 6th choice outfielder on the Dodgers, would be the starting left fielder on the current Yankees roster. This was clearly a good choice for the yankees. It was also very bad planning on the part of the Dodgers if they had any interest in keeping Hoffman.

Obviously, I disagree about Gardner. I do think, though, that Melky is a better fit than Gardner as a fourth outfielder because of his ability to play the corners and to switch hit. Nonetheless, this is kind of thought-provoking.

If you are in the 'Don't trade for Roy Halladay' camp, otherwise known as the Jesus Montero Fan Club, you will hate this quote from Cashman.

"I’m hesitant to move certain young players because of what they can do for us in the here and now or in the future and the salary off-set they provide. At the same time, for the right player, I’ll move anybody."

That doesn't mean Halladay is the right player. It just means he might be, so stay tuned.

The Big Lead, maybe the best general sports blog on the planet, had a nice interview with new Yankee Curtis Granderson the other day.

Red Sox GM Theo Epstein is talking about his team taking a step back in 2010 to be more competitive down the road. Boston Globe columnist Dan Shaughnessy isn't buying what Theo is selling. Neither am I.

More thoughts on Granderson

Ed Valentine — Wed, 09 Dec 2009 11:00:16 -0000

No doubt by now you have probably devoured just about everything you can find about the New York Yankees acquisition of Curtis Granderson from Detroit via a three-team trade. Well, when it comes to trades you can never get enough opinions, so here is a little more.

I thought I would start by getting thoughts from the writers here at PA, so below are a variety of opinions from us -- and from some other sources.

Here is my take.

Initially, I thought the Yankees were nuts to give up so much for Granderson. I said as much Tuesday morning. In retrospect, I was hasty. I really don't think the Yankees are giving up that much at all.

Jackson could someday be what Granderson is now. But, I doubt it. He doesn't hit with any power, and I think it's hard to project him as a 20+ home run player in the big leagues. It's just as likely that Jackson will be Ricky Ledee, or not as good as Melky Cabrera and Brett Gardner. We'll see.

Kennedy? Nothing more than pitching depth. He will never be a front-line guy. Coke? He's an average lefty, not really difficult to replace.

As for Granderson himself, I know all about the lefty/right splits. I don't care. He's a good player with a perfect Yankee Stadium swing, and he is younger and more cost-effective than Johnny Damon. If Damon comes back to the Yankees now, he will come back at a reduced rate.

So, all in all, from purely a Yankee perspective, I have no problem with this move. And if it saves them money and resources to go chase Roy Halladay, all the better.

From '3460Kuri.'

If Curtis Granderson was a free agent, he would probably rank #2 behind Matt Holliday on the list of best available position players. Admittedly, comparing him to Holliday or Jason Bay is comparing apples to oranges, but Granderson has been worth 14.4 WARP over the past three seasons, compared to 18.7 for Holliday and 6.5 for Bay. And let's not forget that he's signed for about half of Bay's price tag and a third of Holliday's pipe dream/asking price.

For the Yankees, it now frees up the Melky Cabrera/Brett Gardner combo for fourth outfielder duty, or trade bait, either of which makes sense. Neither hits well enough to start in any outfield position but center, but would make for a useful bench player.

It's hard to say how good Austin Jackson might become, but even if everything breaks right it's probably going to be a few years until we know for sure. Jackson's real value at the moment is that he's probably ready for a major league job but doesn't make much; money being a non-factor for the Yankees, it's a stretch to project anybody to develop into a top-5 center fielder like Granderson. So they've essentially swapped the long-term future for the near-term future. I don't mind it.

I hate to see Kennedy go as well, but it was probably going to take two significant injuries to better pitchers for him to see significant action out of the rotation this year, so perhaps this change of scenery will give him the opportunity to reach the majors, for good, faster.

Overall I think the Yankees came out on top in this deal, and I'm also really not sure what the Diamondbacks were thinking.

From 'Travis', adding to the thoughts he posted last night.

I was surprised, because the Yanks seemed to think very highly of Kennedy and Jackson. But overall, I liked the deal. They got a very good centerfielder (with a reasonable contract) without giving up Joba, Hughes or Montero, and for that, we should be happy.

Jackson was rightfully a highly-touted prospect, but his ceiling essentially is Granderson.

Kennedy has lost a lot of luster in the past couple years, but his minor league stats show a dominant pitcher. If he ever translates that to the majors, he could be a very good starter (especially in the NL West). What we'll miss more in the immediate future is his addition to the bullpen, where I feel he would've been an asset in 2010. But in the long term, it's not a big loss. There are several other pitchers in the minors with higher ceilings (Banuelos, Brackman, Betances, Heredia), and it would've been tough for Kennedy to crack the rotation of an elite team like the Yankees who can sign a CC Sabathia and A.J. Burnett in the same off-season.

It's actually hard to get a read on what we'll get from Granderson. He had his worst full season ever in 2009, so are the Yanks getting a declining player or merely 'buying low'? Considering an inordinately low BABIP and a very solid line-drive rate (right in line with his career average) makes me think Cashman is buying low. Throw in Yankee Stadium's 'friendliness' to left-handed hitters, and it makes the trade look even better.

The real question is what position he'll play. Unless he plays a markedly better centerfield than Melky/Gardner in spring training, I believe he should be the leftfielder. His defensive stats from the last couple years have been average at best, while Melky and Gardner have been solidly above average. Another question is whether he'll play against lefty pitchers. Melky has better career numbers against lefties, so will Granderson ride the bench on those days?

From 'jscape.'

All things considered, I dislike the deal. Austin Jackson and IPK represented two of our biggest trade chips; to deal them both and bring back only a position player in return seems like selling low to me, especially because the position player has questionable platoon splits.

Here's my take on it, giving as much credit to Cash and crew as possible:
Just like Cashman overspent on starting pitch last season because he saw the lack of options in the '09 offseason, Cash has looked at next offseason and he sees what its strengths and weaknesses will be. The top players who could be on the market include Mauer, Crawford, Beckett, Halladay, Webb, Lee, plus Jeter and Rivera. No centerfielders in the batch, and cost controlling now could leave more flexibility later.

The folks at SB Nation HQ, or SBNation.com, think the Yankees are the clear winners in this trade. Oh, and they think the Diamondbacks got hosed!

What does Damon think of the deal, since it might have knocked him out of New York? He still thinks he could be a Yankee in 2010.

"I think there’s still a window for me to come back," Damon said. "I don’t know why certain people say certain things about me. The bottom line is, I’ve been one of the best players in the league for a long time, and I’ve shown it the past couple of years. I think early on last season my defense was a little bit erratic, but once I figured out the ballpark and figured a few things out, I got better and I actually was a positive for us. That’s the thing I kind of don’t understand. I think our coaches liked the way I play defense. I know that I can do a lot of cool things."

Damon has to know, though, that the window is now a lot smaller. And it will put a lot less greenbacks in his bank account.

You guys also seem to have a mixed reaction, though the majority who have voted in our poll say they either like it or love it. If you haven't voted yet, be sure you do.

Other opinions

ESPN's Keith Law wonders what Arizona was thinking.
SI.com's Tom Verducci says the Yankees are not only rich, but extraordinarily smart, as well.
Detroit Free Press columnist Drew Sharp is sad to see Granderson leave Detroit.

Melky & Brett: Neither a Starter Nor a Reserve Be

jscape2000 — Wed, 11 Nov 2009 16:00:34 -0000

More photos » by Eric Gay - AP

Do you think Melky or Brett should get more playing time?

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Melky Cabrera

Brett Gardner

.274/.336/.416

OPS: .752

wOBA: .331

EQA:.259

UZR/150: -2

BB: 8.1% K: 12.2%

LD: 20.9% GB: 49.5% FB: 29.6%

.270/.345/.379

OPS: .724

wOBA: .337

EQA: .264

UZR/150: 15.4

BB: 9.5% K: 16.1%

LD: 18.1% GB: 49.0% FB: 32.8%

All those numbers are just a really long way to say, these guys are pretty interchangeable.

Despite Joe G.'s insistence on treating Gardner as a 4th outfielder throughout the playoffs, Gardner is the more valuable player in my eyes because of his superior batting eye. Melky has an edge in slugging (equivalent to turning 18 singles into doubles over the course of 500 ABs). I also prefer Gardner's greater range over Melky's arm.

Gardner won the starting job out of spring training, then lost it by hitting .220/.254/.271 in April.

As a split-time situation (hard to call it a platoon when Gardner hit lefties better than he hit righties in a small sample, and Melky saw twice as many ABs against righties than lefties) developed, neither player could win the job outright, but each seemed to heat up as the other cooled off. Gardner outperformed Melky in May and June (.937 OPS to .732), then Melky began to heat up in July (.819 to .621).

And when Gardner hit the DL with a broken finger at the end of July, Melky reminded the world why he needs a partner in CF by hitting .260/.322/.395 for the rest of the season.

Either player could probably be a starter on any other team, counting on his above average defense to make up for his bats weakest moments. But, we are the Yankees, with a legacy of slugging center fielders. Patience is, at the best of times, short.

Objectively speaking, we shouldn't hand the starting job to either player, not for Gardner's epic defense (though I'd be ok with it) and not for our happy memories of Melky's walkoff hits.

Poll

How would you handle playing time in CF?

More for Melky!

226 votes

More for GGBG!

215 votes

50-50

240 votes

681 votes | Poll has closed

Burnett Roulette: Yankees 3, Phillies 1

WholeCamels — Fri, 30 Oct 2009 03:53:26 -0000

More photos » by Julie Jacobson - AP

about 1 month ago: New York Yankees' A.J. Burnett reacts after striking out Philadelphia Phillies' Ryan Howard with two men on base during the third inning of Game 2 of the Major League Baseball World Series Thursday, Oct. 29, 2009, in New York. (AP Photo/Julie Jacobson)

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Two games so far, decided by two dominant pitching performances.

A.J. Burnett, the Yankees' erratic free agent acquisition, pitched the game of his life tonight, going seven strong innings, allowing just four hits, striking out nine and walking only two. He allowed just one run, on a smash RBI single off the glove of Alex Rodriguez, scoring Raul Ibanez from second base in the top of the second inning. The Phillies did a decent job making Burnett throw pitches in the early going, but as the game progressed, he became virtually unhittable. Burnett benefited from a wide plate, and the Phillies hitters failed to adjust -- in the later innings, Burnett dropped curveball after curveball on the outside corner, but the Phillies left-handed hitters failed to change their approach.

We got about all we could have hoped for from Pedro Martinez. The veteran righty went six-plus innings, striking out eight and allowing three runs, two on solo home runs from Mark Teixeira and Hideki Matsui, and a third run on a single by Jorge Posada off Chan Ho Park, scoring the inherited baserunner Brett Gardner. Good, but not quite good enough.

The game was not without controversy, with a pair of double-plays-that-weren't in consecutive half innings; in the bottom of the seventh, with runners on first and second, Johnny Damon lined a ball to Ryan Howard, who snagged the short-hop and threw to second. The ball was called a catch, and the throw to second resulted in a force of Melky Cabrera. In the top of the eighth, with runners on first and second, Chase Utley hit a ground ball to second base and, after forcing Shane Victorino at second, the relay throw failed to get Utley on time at first base. He was called out anyway. Even Steven?

Mariano Rivera pitched the 8th and 9th innings and looked mortal, surrendering a walk to Jimmy Rollins and a single to Victorino in the previously discussed 8th inning, and a two out double to Raul Ibanez in the 9th. But... too little, too late.

There was really no beating A.J. Burnett tonight. "Good A.J." showed up. "Good A.J." is one of the best pitchers in baseball, even if he looks like some kind of Boo Radley / extra from the classic The Hills Have Eyes hybrid ghoul.

They still split in New York. They've got Cole Hamels, who's pitched well at home this season, on Saturday night.

Agh, disappointment.

Yanks take Game 2, take Pedro deep in 3-1 victory

CrazyYankeeChick — Fri, 30 Oct 2009 03:33:57 -0000

Ahh, much better.

The Yankees beat the Phillies in a much-needed, if technically not "must-win" Game 2, with A.J. Burnett outdueling old friend Pedro Martinez.

The Phillies took an early 1-0 lead in the 2nd with an RBI single from Matt Stairs, but the Yanks answered in the 4th with a solo shot from Mark Teixeira. Two innings later, Hideki Matsui went yard to give the Yanks a 2-1 lead, and then they collectively abandoned the longball game in favor of the small ball one.

If we had lost that game, I would have undoubtedly been arrested, and they would have needed dental records to identify the first base ump's mangled body.

Something tells me this game is just a microcosm of how the rest of the series is going to go. Nip and tuck. Working the pitchers. No easy outs, no easy runs. I don't know if my heart can take it.

Admittedly, no one can say we teed off on the long-winded stepchild of the Yankees. He kept our bats frozen through 3 innings, save a single from Hideki. And I wouldn't dare publicly subscribe to this at the time, but the thought did cross my mind that if Pedro holds us scoreless and to one hit, I may have to walk into a pit of wild boars to take me out of my misery.

Fortunately, Tex saved me from this fate when he led off the bottom of the 4th with shot to right center. 'Bout time. I was like 8 minutes away from exploding into a "the Phillies have weighted the ball!" outburst. (Seriously, though. It felt like the whole bar had been possessed by Sterling, every shot looked like it was going to carry, inducing us all to jump to our feet in excitement only to see it caught no where near the warning track.)

With the score tied 1-1, everyone was breathing slightly easier. Slightly. A.J. continued to deal, and unlike his usual Good A.J. persona, he wasn't even throwing the occasional wildness. Over 7 unbelievably solid innings, he used 108 pitches to let up just 4 hits, walk 2, and strike out 9. NINE. Thank you a thousand times over, A.J.

The offense did little to help him out, though it never seemed as through Pedro was baffling them, per se. If anything, they might have been a little overeager to knock him around and hence were getting whiffed on giant cuts.

In the bottom of the 7th, the Yanks added another run to their lead, and it really should have been a couple more runs, but a horrendous call ended the inning. With runners on 1st and 2nd, Jorge Posada singled to score Brett Gardner (although his ribbie was regrettably not off Pedro, but I'll take it.)

Jeter made the first out of the inning when he did what every hot batter does with 2 strikes, runners on, in a playoff game where you only lead by 2: bunted. Naturally. Johnny Damon came up and hit a line drive to first which Ryan Howard sells as a catch despite its definite hop, umps buy it, Posada out at 2nd, Damon out with the catch.

Technically, it should have been a 4-1 game, with runners on 1st and 2nd and still 1 out, since Howard never even stepped on first. Eh, it's moot.

Mariano Rivera comes in for 6 outs and throws wayyy too many pitches en route to his 38th postseason save (39). Things started to get a little too close for comfort when he put on Shane Victorino and Jimmy Rollins, with Chase Utley to deal with on only 1 out. Superman induces a double play, inning over.

The 9th went on without much of a hitch beyond Raul Ibanez's double. Mo struck out Matt Stairs to end the game. (Btw, I never noticed how much of a fat middle-aged Guiness-drinking, Mets-rooting blob Stairs looks like--that's the type of guy who bats cleanup in his bar softball league, not for a pro one.)

The series is tied at 1 game apiece, with a "travel" day tomorrow, then 3 games in Philly commence on Halloween. Great win tonight, Yanks. And special nod of gratitude for Jose Molina (yup, first time that sentiment has ever been uttered ever), for picking off Jason Werth in the 3rd. Maybe that was the weird kick in the pants the boys needed to start it up.

It's still our series. Here's to taking Philly by the jugular this weekend.

And what better time for bloodshed then October 31?

-CYC

World Series Game 2: What I want to see tonight

Ed Valentine — Thu, 29 Oct 2009 16:49:48 -0000

More photos » by Henny Ray Abrams - AP

New York Yankees center fielder Brett Gardner.

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What I want to see tonight starts with the New York Yankees knocking Pedro Martinez all over Yankee Stadium the way he knocked Don Zimmer around a few years back.

That's not really what I'm here to talk about right now, though. There are a couple of things I want to see from Manager Joe Girardi tonight, and I am not at all sure he will do either one.

I want to see Brett Gardner in center field, with Melky Cabrera in right and Nick Swisher playing cheerleader from the bench. I know what kind of weapon Girardi feels Gardner is off the bench, but the guy is way more than a pinch-runner. He's a terrific center fielder, a respectable hitter (.270 regular season, .345 OBP) and Girardi needs to remember he can help the Yankees in ways other than stealing second base. Swisher is still slumping, at .114 for the post-season. C'mon, Joe, give Gardner a chance before it's too late to matter.
I want to see Jorge Posada catching A.J. Burnett tonight. I could care less about all those numbers some of you will point to showing A.J. likes pitching to Jose Molina more than Posada. The Yankees are down 1-0 in this series. Lose tonight, and you can pretty much forget finding time to go to a parade in the Canyon of Heroes next week. There probably won't be one. The Yankees need their best lineup on the field tonight, and that means Posada instead of Molina. Posada is the Yankees No. 1 catcher, owner of four World Series rings and a borderline Hall of Famer (that's for a whole different discussion). Jose Molina is, well, Jose Molina -- the worst of the catching Molina brothers. In the most important game of the Yankee season to date, Posada MUST be in the lineup.
One final thing. I want to see Girardi with a quick, I mean very quick, hook for Burnett tonight. Lord knows what will happpen once Manic Joe gets into that bullpen -- we might run out of pitchers by the sixth inning -- but I don't want him to hesitate. As soon as 'bad A.J.' makes an appearance I want him outta there.

World Series Batting Order Optimizer: New York Yankees

devil_fingers — Wed, 28 Oct 2009 16:37:07 -0000

More photos » by Julie Jacobson - AP

Jeter: I'm hitting WHERE at a baseball game? Girardi: (stares silently at a baseball game) A-Rod: (smugly) We're playing this late in the year at a baseball game WHY? I'm going to have to hook up with a second-rate actress who likes hanging out in a warmer place.

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So there's a big game tonight. CC Sabathia and Cliff Lee are facing off in a matchup destined to stab Cleveland fans in the fork with an eye for ages to come. And it's also a chance for me to write about something that, while I it doesn' t matter all that much -- 5 to 15 runs over a full season, so almost irrelevant in a 7 game series -- I obsess over constantly: batting order.

During the season, I had an occasional series called the Lousy Lineup Optimizer. Obviously, the two teams in the World Series have not-so-lousy lineups, and it was a fun chance to mess around with some batting orders full of great hitters. I'd meant to start yesterday, but these things take a while to put together to account for platoon splits, etc. I'll hopefully post on the Phillies tomorrow. Indeed, I'd wanted to do this for all the playoff teams, but 1) it was going to take too much time -- series would be over before I got all the teams posted; and 2) if there's anything we've learned from reading MGL's posts on the Book Blog, it's that you can't just use current season stats to judge a player's ability -- you need something like a projection. Earlier, I was using the ZiPS Rest of Season stats, but the season is over. My pseudo-Marcels spreadsheet was frustrating me. But then Acta Sports made the 2010 BIll James projections to be published in the 2010 Bill James Handbook (now available for pre-order!) available to SB Nation writers. I figure next season isn't that far off. I'm no posting these as "my" projections, but just using them to get an idea of the relative abiltiies of the players of each team for putting together a batting order.

Again, batting order doesn't matter all that much, but you'd think that teams in the World Series would want to maximize their chances any way they can. It's also interesting because they'll need for put together batting orders both with and without a DH. Let's see what the Yankees should do.

Lineup Optimization by The Book

If you've been following the Lousy Lineup Optimization series, you know what all this nonsense is about, so feel free to skim or skip all the way down the the batting order tables in the "Getting to the Point" section. If you aren't somewhat familiar with The Book's ideas on lineup optimization, it's at least worth skimming this section. The general principles are largely drawn from The Book, which is worth checking out on this and many other topics. Sky Kalkman gives a good, brief rundown in this article. While there is already good stuff out there, I like to do this kind of stuff for myself

Here are a few of the guidelines (with my own twists).

"It's all relative." Although this isn't directly stated in The Book or in any of the summaries I've seen, I think it's worth noting: the appropriate spot in the batting order for any particular player is relative. People talk about having a "true leadoff man" or a "#4 hitter" or that a player has a swing that's just perfect for hitting #2 or whatever. But the truth is, a player's "best" place in a lineup depends on his skills relative to the other players.
Where should the best hitter hit? The best five hitters (by wOBA or equivalent stat (e.g., not OPS) should be in the top five spots. Of those 5, generally, the best hitters will be in the #1, #2, and #4 spots. Ideally, of these three the hitter in the #1 spot will have the best OBP, the #4 hitter will have the most power, and the #2 hitter will be somewhere in between (relative to the #1 and #4 hitters). The best hitter will probably be in the #2 or #4 spot. The fourth and fifth best hitters will be in the #5 and #3 spots, respectively. Yes, you read that right: the #3 hitter's only advantage in run expectancy over #5 is in home runs. Of the top five spots, this is where you want your low-OBP slugger. As we'll see, platoon issues can make getting the best into the ## 1,2 and 4 slots tough, but getting them into the top 5 is pretty close.
The other half: In slots ##6-9, simply go in descending order of hitter quality, keeping in mind:
Platoon issues: Separating lefties takes a certain precedence, since this prevents the opposing team from leveraging LHPs against your lefties, who generally have bigger platoon splits. Moreover, given platoon splits (more on how these are generated in the next section), different batting orders against RHP and LHP are in order (har har). This also means that if your best hitters are lefties, they may not get into the "ideal" spots next to each other.
Can pinch hitting help? Note that in the chapter on platoons, the authors of The Book show that pinch hitting to gain the platoon advantage really doesn't solve this and other problems since the penalty pinch hitters suffer from the difficulty of hitting off of the bench offsets the platoon advantage they might gain.
Speed on the bases: Baserunning and basestealing are important, but are difficult to place, since often (but not always) the same players are good at both. In general, you want good baserunners (aside from stealing -- those good at taking the extra base, scoring from first on a double, etc.) in front of good contact hitters who can "move them over." Basestealers are best leveraged in front of poor hitters who have trouble moving them over. In both cases, if possible, avoid putting these players in front of high-power hitters, since this negates the advantage of those skills. So while your good baserunner might best be utilized at the top of the order (e.g., in front of a #2 hitter with moderate power), your best basestealer will likely be best utilized in further down the order in front of poor hitters -- say, in the #5 or #6 spot.
The Jim Rice Effect. Some spots have a greater odds of facing double play situations. The spot that sees the most DP situations is #3 by far, followed by #2. Therefore, try to avoid having high GDP players in those spots. The spot that sees the least (particularly in the NL) is the leadoff spot. So some times if you have an excellent hitter who also hits into a good number of DPs, even if he is slow, it might be worth it to move him into the leadoff spot.
Movin' on up: The "second leadoff hitter" theory has some validity -- having a #9 hitter who can "set the table" for the top of the order does increase run expectancy, so putting the worst hitter 8th sometimes helps. However, this worst hitter has to be really, really horrible in order for the advantage to obtain. In other words, in National League parks, hitting the pitcher 8th is the smart move according to The Book, although it is worth noting that Tom Tango wrote the chapter on lineups, and Mitchel Litchman (aka "MGL") is more circumspect regarding the value of the pitcher hitting 8th.
Remember that who is in the lineup is much more important that what order it goes in. So relax -- despite my nitpicking over two points of wOBA here and there, it really doesn' t matter that much. But it sure is fun to quibble...

Projected Stats, Sources, and Ground Rules for this Series

Who gets in? Again ultimately, who is in the lineup is more important than what order they go in. Having said that, in this occasional series my focus is opposite issue -- the order. So I'm generally going to accept whatever group of players the manager is throwing out there, whether I think it is the right group or not. I won't always get this right, since lineups change day-to-day depending on how players are feelings, how much acid reflux the manager had the night before, etc.
Where are those numbers coming from?, the basics: As I said above, I'm using the 2010 projections from the 2010 Bill James Handbook for wOBA/AVG/OBP/SLG and SB/CS (prorated for ~150 games). The other numbers are explained elsewhere.
Who is the better hitter? From these stats, I will generate a wOBA (if it isn't done already, such as at FanGraphs) for each player. wOBA (weighted on-base average), for those who don't know, is the total offensive value stat that has taken the baseball internet by storm. Introduced by the authors of The Book and invented by Tom Tango, wOBA takes care of all the problems OPS had in terms of the weighting of OBP and SLG, doubles and home runs. It's roughly on an OBP scale, so something between .330-.340 is about average. For the version used at FanGraphs, .330 was about the MLB nonpitcher average in 2008. You can read more around the 'net, but in short: if one player has a better wOBA than another, he's a more productive hitter, period. wOBA for players can be found at FanGraphs and Stat Corner, for now, and probably more places as time moves on...
What about platoon splits? As The Book also explains (I'm telling you, you really should read it!), while each player has his own platoon split, it takes a lot longer than you would think to establish it -- it takes about 2,000 PAs against LHP for right-handed hitters to be able to say with some degree of confidence what their platoon split is -- so that's means only guys in the league a long time. For left-handed hitters, since there is more variability, it doesn't take as long -- about 1,000 PAs. Still, only veterans really get that far. Until then, most players should be assumed to have the league average platoon split. So, following the procedure used in by the authors for earlier years, I took the average wOBA and OBP splits for the 2005-2008 AL (it was easier to exclude pitchers that way) and applied them to each player. The only stats I will be adjusting this for are wOBA and OBP. BA, SLG, ISO are the generic ones, just to get a sense of the "kind" of hitter a guy is, obviously, those will change, too. but are harder to adjust for generically. In the "vs. RHP" and "vs. LHP" lineups, the wOBA and OBP figures are adjusted for league-average splits, and are thus italicized. [For more on estimating platoon skills, read this.]
What about Stolen Bases? I took the linear weights SB/CS runs projected by ZiPS before the season and prorated for ~600 PAs.
And baserunning? A bit more complicated... In the previous installments, I used Baseball Prospectus' EQBRR stats minus the stolen basees component. But I realized that what we're really looking here is just the runners ability to advance on hits, so starting with the Giants, I'm just using the EqHAR component. I did a primitive Marcels-type projection with them, without age adjustments, but with regression incorporating the Speed Score listed in the CHONE projections. Just to get a feel for the relative abilty of the baserunners, I projected runs values above/below average per 50 advancement opportunities. The listed numbers are projected baserunning runs above/below average per 600 PAs.
How about grounding into double plays? In short, the new Baseball Reference came out with information on GiDPs, opps, league averages and stuff. So I was able to do another pseudo-Marcel. The number listed is the GiDP runs above (avoided) or below (grounded into ) average per 600 PAs, normalized for the average number of opportunities seen over 600 PAs from 2005-2008.

Getting to the Point

Below are the raw, un-platooned stats from the 2010 Bill James projections for the Yankees with some other stuff. This isn't an any particular order. If it was up to me, Brett Gardner would start in center over Melky, but whatever. Remember, these aren't my projections, I'm just using them for convenience. Get mad at Bill James if you think this is unfair to Damon or whatever.

Player	Pos.		wOBA	AVG	OBP	SLG	ISO	EqHAR	SBr	GDPr
Jorge Posada	C	S	.366	.276	.372	.467	.191	-2.2	-0.3	-0.7
Mark Teixeira	1B	S	.305	.300	.395	.559	.259	-0.4	0.0	1.0
Robinson Cano	2B	L	.359	.309	.347	.489	.180	0.3	-0.5	-0.8
Derek Jeter	SS	R	.365	.317	.388	.444	.127	0.5	0.8	-1.5
Alex Rodriguez	3B	R	.403	.294	.400	.550	.256	0.3	0.7	-0.8
Johnny Damon	LF	L	.347	.278	.355	.430	.152	0.4	0.9	2.1
Melky Cabrera	CF	S	.330	.278	.341	.406	.128	0.2	0.3	-0.3
Nick Swisher	RF	S	.360	.247	.365	.467	.220	0.4	-0.2	0.3
Hideki Matsui	DH	L	.367	.282	.367	.475	.193	0.4	-0.3	1.0

So here we go... I'll start would with the "vs. LHP" lineups since the series is starting with the Yankees going against Cliff Lee.

Optimized Yankees Batting Order vs. LHP w/ DH
Player	Pos		wOBA	AVG	OBP	SLG	ISO	EqHAR	SBr	GDPr
Derek Jeter	SS	R	.383	.317	.409	.444	.127	0.5	0.8	-1.5
Mark Teixeira	1B	S	.395	.300	.395	.559	.259	-0.4	0.0	1.0
Hideki Matsui	DH	L	.348	.282	.349	.475	.193	0.4	-0.3	1.0
Alex Rodriguez	3B	R	.422	.294	.421	.550	.256	0.3	0.7	-0.8
Jorge Posada	C	S	.366	.276	.372	.467	.191	-2.2	-0.3	-0.7
Nick Swisher	RF	S	.360	.247	.365	.467	.220	0.4	-0.2	0.3
Robinson Cano	2B	L	.340	.309	.330	.489	.180	0.3	-0.5	-0.8
Melky Cabrera	CF	S	.330	.278	.341	.406	.128	0.2	0.3	-0.3
Johnny Damon	LF	L	.329	.278	.338	.430	.152	0.4	0.9	2.1

[NB: The italicized columns have been adjusted generically to account for platoon splits.]

Comments: It's pretty hard to put a bad batting order together with the Yankees. The main problem here was that in my "ideal" order, I had a bunch of lefties back-to-back at the bottom. Swisher really works well in the #3 spot, given his relative expected wOBA, his ability to avoid the DP, and home run frequency. However, then you end up with all lefties stacked up at the bottom of the order. To accomodate all that, I switched Matsui (surprisingly good at avoiding the DP last I updated) into the #3 spot. Most of my adjustments were made with these sorts of considerations -- with a powerful lineup like this, you don't worry to much about leveraging basestealers. Jeter leading off makes sense not only because he's a good hitter and baserunner, but beacause it also puts him in a position to see the fewest DP opportunities. Mark Teixeira hitting #2 might seem strange, but that's just because we're used to seeing sub-par hitters in that spot. He or A-Rod could switch, as A-Rod's baserunning might make sense in front of a contact hitter like Matsui. On the other hand, Teixeira is better at avoiding the DP, and the #2 spot sees them a bit more often. Also, the #4 spot leads off more innings. Damon at the bottom? Talk to Bill James. The Yanks can't use a DH every game, though, so...

Optimized Yankees Batting Order vs. LHP, no DH
Player	Pos		wOBA	AVG	OBP	SLG	ISO	EqHAR	SBr	GDPr
Derek Jeter	SS	R	.383	.317	.409	.444	.127	0.5	0.8	-1.5
Mark Teixeira	1B	S	.395	.300	.395	.559	.259	-0.4	0.0	1.0
Nick Swisher	RF	S	.360	.247	.365	.467	.220	0.4	-0.2	0.3
Alex Rodriguez	3B	R	.422	.294	.421	.550	.256	0.3	0.7	-0.8
Jorge Posada	C	S	.366	.276	.372	.467	.191	-2.2	-0.3	-0.7
Robinson Cano	2B	L	.340	.309	.330	.489	.180	0.3	-0.5	-0.8
Melky Cabrera	CF	S	.330	.278	.341	.406	.128	0.2	0.3	-0.3
Pitcher	P
Johnny Damon	LF	L	.329	.278	.338	.430	.152	0.4	0.9	2.1

[NB: The italicized columns have been adjusted generically to account for platoon splits.]

Comment: Very similar to above, with Matsui switched out, and Swisher getting into the #3 spot. This is really a "perfect: sort of lineup (you can put the pitcher #8 or #9 depending on how you feel about that issue) -- the top 5 hitters are in the top five spots, the worst DP guy is a good hitter who can lead off. You have the best three hitters 1,2, and 4, the 4th best hitter #5, and the 5th best #3, and the 5th best has a lot of home run power to maximize his more frequent 2 out opportunities. Tons of power in the middle of this lineup, as ##2-4 all have expected (before platoon!) ISOs over .200.

Optimized Yankees Batting Order vs. RHP, w/ DH
Player	Pos		*wOBA*	AVG	*OBP*	SLG	ISO	EqHAR	SBr	GDPr
Robinson Cano	2B	L	.369	.309	.355	.489	.180	0.3	-0.5	-0.8
Alex Rodriguez	3B	R	.397	.294	.393	.550	.256	0.3	0.7	-0.8
Hideki Matsui	DH	L	.377	.282	.376	.475	.193	0.4	-0.3	1.0
Mark Teixeira	1B	S	.405	.300	.395	.559	.259	-0.4	0.0	1.0
Jorge Posada	C	S	.366	.276	.372	.467	.191	-2.2	-0.3	-0.7
Nick Swisher	RF	S	.360	.247	.365	.467	.220	0.4	-0.2	0.3
Derek Jeter	SS	R	.359	.317	.381	.444	.127	0.5	0.8	-1.5
Johnny Damon	LF	L	.356	.278	.364	.430	.152	0.4	0.9	2.1
Melky Cabrera	CF	S	.330	.278	.341	.406	.128	0.2	0.3	-0.3

[NB: The italicized columns have been adjusted generically to account for platoon splits.]

Comments: Now this is a revisionary lineup! I personally find the "boy Derek Jeter is overrated I hate him so much A-Rod is so much better!" thing to be tired, even if certain sitcom writers still think it's clever. I guess my feeling at this point is "Duh." But this is just what the projections, platoon, and batting order principles spit out. Cano is a good hitter vs. RHP who also has GDP problems. I don't worry too much about his hitting with runners in scoring position (even if Steven Goldman seemingly can't stop mentioning it for some strange reason), but if you do worry about that, then hitting him #1 also takes care of that issue. Again, A-Rod and Teixeria could switch. I figured that Teixeira would have more power vs. RHP than A-Rod, so I put it this way, perhaps A-Rod's baserunning will be more useful in front of Matsui. It's a testament to the strength of the lineup that not only is Jeter hitting #7, but even against RHP, I have Damon hitting #8. And it works out, since Jeter and Damon's baserunning abilities are better leveraged in front of guys with less power like Melky and Cano than in front of power hitters like A-Rod, Tex, and Swisher.

Optimized Yankees Batting Order vs. RHP, no DH
Player	Pos		*wOBA*	AVG	*OBP*	SLG	ISO	EqHAR	SBr	GDPr
Robinson Cano	2B	L	.369	.309	.355	.489	.180	0.3	-0.5	-0.8
Alex Rodriguez	3B	R	.397	.294	.393	.550	.256	0.3	0.7	-0.8
Nick Swisher	RF	S	.360	.247	.365	.467	.220	0.4	-0.2	0.3
Mark Teixeira	1B	S	.405	.300	.395	.559	.259	-0.4	0.0	1.0
Jorge Posada	C	S	.366	.276	.372	.467	.191	-2.2	-0.3	-0.7
Derek Jeter	SS	R	.359	.317	.381	.444	.127	0.5	0.8	-1.5
Johnny Damon	LF	L	.356	.278	.364	.430	.152	0.4	0.9	2.1
Pitcher	P
Melky Cabrera	CF	S	.330	.278	.341	.406	.128	0.2	0.3	-0.3

[NB: The italicized columns have been adjusted generically to account for platoon splits.]

Comments: Once again, Matsui's absence allow Swisher's home run power to get into the #3 spot where it belongs. Other than that, not much of a difference here. I should mention than in all four batting orders, I strongly considered putting A-Rod first because the best hitter could be in #1, #2, or #4, he's a good baserunner, and he also has a bit of a GDP issue (although it's not like Jeter's).

So that's it! What are the odds Joe Girardi does something like this? Greater than the odds of Kate Hudson making a movie that isn't a crappy romantic comedy? Greater than the odds of Ken Tremendous not bitching about a bunt? I dunno. I do know that I like talking about this stuff even if (wait for it) ... it doesn't matter all that much. Tell me what I did wrong!