SB Nation - Jose Tabata

Down on the Farm: John Sickel's Top 20 Pirates Prospects for 2010

raygu — Thu, 17 Dec 2009 17:30:32 -0000

Sickels posted his Top 20 Pirates prospect for 2010 yesterday afternoon with a surprise number 1 prospect.....just kidding. Sickels has thrid base prospect Pedro Alvarez as his number 1 Buccos prospect, and here is what he said about him:

1) Pedro Alvarez, 3B, Grade A: Bat looks excellent. Even if he moves to first base, his bat will be good enough for him to be an All-Star. Upside: David Ortiz.

I wonder if the upside comment refers to Alvarez's bat or weight in comparison to Ortiz??

And here is what he said about a guy I recently traded for in the UBA league:

2) Jose Tabata, OF, Grade B: I don't know if I agree with the Pirates about his power, but I do believe them about his age and at 21 he is still VERY young with high upside.

Head on over to Minor League Ball to check out the rest of the Pirates Top 20. It appears the system is improving, but they have alot of catching up to do after some horrible drafts in recent years.

Jeff Clement Penciled in at First

Charlie — Thu, 17 Dec 2009 10:03:59 -0000

by Kathy Willens - AP

The Bucs are comfortable waiting until late in the offseason to target free agent corner players like Xavier Nady.

View full size photo »

The Post-Gazette has an interesting item about Jeff Clement and the first base job. The Pirates seem not to mind that some of their top targets for extra corner players (Xavier Nady and Rick Ankiel in particular) are unlikely to sign until late in the offseason. This means they're probably relatively happy with the players currently at the top of their depth chart (Clement at first, and Garrett Jones in right) and want an extra guy mainly to provide competition and to guard against a flameout by Clement or someone else.

This seems sensible. As a fourth-outfielder / insurance policy, Nady is actually fairly interesting to me, since he's right-handed. But Ankiel is a lefty like Clement. And it's not really clear that Nady or Ankiel are better than Clement right now anyway. ZiPS, for example, predicts Clement will have an .801 OPS next year. (Incidentally, it also predicts Matt Capps will have the lowest ERA on the staff. Oops.) Nady is at .780. I don't think a ZiPS projection for Ankiel has been published yet, but Bill James has him at .763.

Now, both Nady and Ankiel would be doing the Pirates a service by keeping Jones out of the outfield, so they provide more defensive value than Clement probably would. And certainly projections can turn out to be wrong, particularly with injury magnets like these three guys, etc. etc. etc. (Don't think you're being original by pointing that out, either.) The point, though, is that if the Bucs have resigned themselves to second- or third-tier free agents like Nady and Ankiel (as is probably appropriate at this point), they're right to not feel much urgency about this. Clement might well end up being better than the available options anyway, and if things get bad, there's also Steve Pearce, Delwyn Young and Brandon Moss--and possibly Jose Tabata and Pedro Alvarez--to fall back on. An additional benefit of starting Clement is that the Pirates can control his rights for several years if he succeeds, and since Tabata and Alvarez could begin to complicate things staring in about July, it behooves the Bucs to see what they have in Clement.

The best reason for the Pirates to sign a free agent outfielder or first baseman is not to replace someone currently penciled into the starting lineup, but to guard against a complete failure, and I don't just mean by Clement. Not to take a shot at someone who thoroughly proved me wrong throughout 2009, but last season Jones played like he knew how to fly. Maybe he really can fly, but given his lengthy and undistinguished history, the Pirates also have to consider the possibility that instead of flying his legs were just moving really fast for a few seconds, like Wile E. Coyote running off a cliff. Clement, Jones and Lastings Milledge should all be in the starting lineup, but if possible there should be legitimate fallback options too.

Pittsburgh Pirates Top 20 Prospects for 2010

John Sickels — Wed, 16 Dec 2009 22:16:26 -0000

More photos » by Gene J. Puskar - AP

2 months ago: Pittsburgh Pirates' Andrew McCutchen drives in two-runs with a single off Los Angeles Dodgers pitcher George Sherrill in the seventh inning of a baseball game in Pittsburgh Saturday, Sept. 26, 2009.(AP Photo/Gene J. Puskar)

Browse more photos »

Pittsburgh Pirates Top 20 Prospects for 2010

All grades are EXTREMELY PRELIMINARY and subject to change. Don't get too worried about exact rankings at this point, especially once you get beyond the Top 10. Grade C+/C guys are pretty interchangeable depending on what you want to emphasize. Complete reports on these and over 1,000 other players will be in the 2010 Baseball Prospect Book, now available for pre-order, shipping on February 2^nd!

1) Pedro Alvarez, 3B, Grade A: Bat looks excellent. Even if he moves to first base, his bat will be good enough for him to be an All-Star. Upside: David Ortiz.

2) Jose Tabata, OF, Grade B: I don't know if I agree with the Pirates about his power, but I do believe them about his age and at 21 he is still VERY young with high upside.

3) Tony Sanchez, C, Grade B: He was a slight overdraft but I like him, excellent defense and it doesn't look like his power was all aluminum.

4) Zack Von Rosenberg, RHP, Grade B-: This is an aggressive grade for a high school pitcher with just one pro inning under his belt, but I really like his pitchability and have a strong intuitive feeling about him. He still has some projection left, too. Going to take a risk with this one and put him ahead of Alderson and Lincoln.

5) Tim Alderson, RHP, Grade B-: Borderline C+. Loss of velocity and break on the curve is troubling, but he's still a guy who held his own in Double-A at age 20. Stock has dropped but still an intriguing property as an inning-eater type. Ranks ahead of Lincoln because he's younger.

6) Brad Lincoln, RHP, Grade C+: Borderline B-. Command looks all the way back, but components are more those of an inning-eater type than a true ace.

7) Chase D'arnaud, INF, Grade C+: Speed, on-base ability, solid defense, might develop more pop. At worst a good utility guy and could get beyond that.

8) Starling Marte, OF, Grade C+: Uber-tools, particularly speed, but raw with the strike zone.

9) Rudy Owens, LHP, Grade C+: Outstanding K/BB ratio. Was hittable after moving up to Lynchburg, though he maintained a good strikeout rate. Great command of decent stuff but need to see in Double-A.

10) Ronald Uviedo, RHP, Grade C+: Live arm stands out but unsure of future role.

11) Victor Black, RHP, Grade C+: Another live arm, Dallas Baptist product has high ceiling but needs better control.

12) Daniel McCutchen, RHP, Grade C+: Old for a rookie at age 27, but has nothing left to prove in the minors and knows how to pitch. Another guy with a great K/BB ratio.

13) Brett Lorin, RHP, Grade C+: Sleeper prospect snapped up from the Mariners, could rank as high as 10^th.

14) Robbie Grossman, OF, Grade C+: High strikeout rate is off-putting, but he also draws walks, steals bases, and has untapped power potential.

15) Diego Moreno, RHP, Grade C+: Lively relief arm came out of nowhere, need to see at higher levels but could advance quickly as a pen asset.

16) Justin Wilson, LHP, Grade C+: Component ratios at Lynchburg weren't great, but he has a good arm and lefties with above average stuff get plenty of chances.

17) Colton Cain, LHP, Grade C+: Could rank as high as 12^th. Another high-ceiling arm bought away from college like Von Rosenberg, though not as polished.

18) Gorkys Hernandez, OF, Grade C: Baseball America has him at 10^th on their Pirates list due to his tools, but I'm starting to doubt the bat and his skills seem to be stagnating.

19) Trent Stevenson, RHP, Grade C: Another young projectable high school arm bought out of college ball.

20) Brooks Pounders, RHP, Grade C: Less projectable than Stevenson but another interesting prep arm. The rotation in the New York-Penn League and/or Low-A is going to be really intriguing in 2010.

OTHERS: (Grade Cs): Ramon Aguero, RHP; Nate Baker, LHP; Ramon Cabrera, C; Evan Chambers, OF; Jarek Cunningham, INF; Zack Dodson, LHP; Wesley Freeman, OF; Brian Friday, SS; Brock Holt, INF; Jeff Inman, RHP; Quincy Latimore, OF; Jeff Locke, LHP; Jordy Mercer, SS; Quinton Miller, RHP; Bryan Morris, RHP; Danny Moskos, LHP; John Raynor, OF; Hunter Strickland, RHP; Donald Veal, LHP; Neil Walker, 3B.

This farm system is improving, thanks to trades, more aggressive drafting, and additional scouting in Latin America.

Alvarez is the crown jewel, of course, and there isn't a lot really that needs to be said about him. Tabata is a more difficult case, since even if they're right about his age, he risks tweenerdom if his power doesn't come along. I like Tony Sanchez a lot and people need to lay off about the decision to draft him. They poured a ton of money into projectable guys in later rounds, and I think the strategy of mixing skill players with tool players will pay dividends.

The system is thin in position players beyond the top group. I like d'Arnaud but he may end up as just a good role player and not a starter. We'll know more once he faces Double-A pitching. Marte could be anything from a big star to a huge bust. Heavy investments have been made in young pitching recently. I like Von Rosenberg the best of the bunch, but Cain, Pounders, Stevenson, Dodson, and Miller all have significant upside potential. There are also live-armed guys who could help in the bullpen relatively soon, and there are inning-eaters such as Lincoln, Alderson, and Strickland to provide some leavening to the upside guys.

If what I saw in Arizona is any indication, Donald Veal could be a surprise success in 2010.

The Pirates could use some additional bats to go with all these arms, but overall this is an organization on the right track in terms of player development. The debut of Andrew McCutchen was just the first step.

Down on the Farm: Snippets from Baseball America's Top 10 Lists

raygu — Mon, 14 Dec 2009 14:00:29 -0000

It was a slow weekend of rumors after a week full of them, so I will post some more snippets from Baseball America's Top 10 lists. Yesterday, I posted snippets for some of the top prospects in the NL East. Today, I bring the NL Central including several Cincinnatti Reds and a future 40 HR power hitter. For thos of you who want to see some of your favorite prospects, you can head over to Youtube which has video of alot of prospects.

Todd Frazier, OF/3B, CIN

The Reds were planning to send Frazier to Puerto Rico for winter ball to continue his development as a second baseman, although a minor knee injury will likely derail those plans. If he shows he can be even adequate defensively, his bat would make him a valuable regular there. He may be a better fit at third base, where he projects as a solid hitter and defender. With Scott Rolen's contract expiring after 2010 and Brandon Phillips locked up through 2011, Frazier's initial big league opportunity would seem to more likely come at third base or left field. He'll head to Triple-A Louisville in 2010 for some final polish.

More after the jump:

Mike Leake, SP, CIN

Leake's feel for pitching and command are outstanding. He keeps hitters off balance by throwing five pitches (fastball, cutter, slider, curveball and changeup) for strikes. He can run his fastball up to 94 mph, but it's more effective when he pitches at 88-92 with better run and sink. His changeup is deceptive, and his curve and slider are two distinct breaking pitches that play well off each other. He fields his position like an extra infielder on the mound.

Chris Heisey, OF, CIN

Heisey could be termed a "cheap five-tool player." None of his tools is overwhelming, but all of them are at least fringe-average. At the plate, he uses the entire field and makes his living driving the ball back up the middle. He shows solid bat speed and surprising power, nearly equaling his previous career total with 22 homers in 2009. He's an above-average runner with instincts that enhance his speed, and he is 53-for-58 stealing bases in the past two years. He has a slightly above-average arm and makes accurate throws. He's a plus defender on the outfield corners.

Pedro Alvarez, 3B, PITT

Alvarez was playing so well by the end of the season that some scouts believe he's ready to step into Pittsburgh's Opening Day lineup for 2010. However, he'll begin the season at Triple-A Indianapolis and stay there until at least June to keep his arbitration and free agency clocks from starting. He should make an immediate impact and appears destined to become a big-time slugger for a franchise that hasn't had a 40-homer hitter since Willie Stargell in 1973. The only long-term question is what position Alvarez will play. If he keeps his weight in check, he'll be able to stay at third base. If not, he'll need to move across the diamond to first.

Jose Tabata, OF, PITT

Tabata has a compact stroke and hits line drives to all fields. He has sound strike-zone judgment for a young hitter. He has enough range to play a passable center field but is better suited for right, where he can show off his above-average arm. He has slightly above-average speed. Tabata will begin 2010 back in Triple-A but figures to be in the majors at some point during the season. He has the potential to be an all-star right fielder if his power develops.

Brett Lawrie, 2B, MILW

Lawrie will get to the big leagues quicker now than he would have as a catcher, but some scouts think he's destined for an outfield corner. He has a potent bat that should profile at just about any position. Though he jumped to Double-A Huntsville last summer to prepare for the World Cup, he could open 2010 in high Class A.

Should Ramon Vazquez Keep His Roster Spot?

Charlie — Mon, 14 Dec 2009 06:58:39 -0000

More photos » by Gene J. Puskar - AP

Pittsburgh Pirates' Ramon Vazquez (5) connects for a two-run single against Cincinnati Reds' Micah Owings in the first inning during a baseball game in Pittsburgh Saturday, May 2, 2009. (AP Photo/Gene J. Puskar)

Browse more photos »

Interesting tidbit in the Post-Gazette today:

Looks like Rule 5 pick John Raynor will be in a one-on-one battle with Brandon Moss for reserve outfield duty this spring. Locked into the bench for now are Jason Jaramillo, Ramon Vazquez, Bobby Crosby and Delwyn Young. That leaves room for one outfielder, preferably one capable of backing up in center. And Raynor might be better there than Moss.

Unlike Dejan Kovacevic, I can only speculate on what will happen, but what should happen here? Vazquez is vaguely useful in that, you know, he can play a bunch of infield positions and isn't Brian Bixler, but Vazquez hit a sub-Bloomquistian .230/.335/.279 last year, making 2009 the fourth season in the past six in which he failed to top a .620 OPS. I mostly admire Vazquez's patient approach at the plate, but that's really all he had in 2009--he looked like was praying for pitchers to accidentally walk him. I liked the Vazquez signing when it happened, but his strong 2008 campaign with the Rangers now looks very fluky. With Bobby Crosby in the fold, there doesn't seem to be any reason to break camp with another utility infielder, especially since Young can also sort of play second.

There are probably five bench spots available, and one probably will go to a catcher, and another to someone who can play shortstop. Jaramillo, Crosby and Young look very likely to make the bench, at this point. Maybe Kovacevic knows something I don't, but if I were in charge, it wouldn't be particularly likely that Vazquez would make the team next year. Assuming for now that Jeff Clement starts at first base and Garrett Jones is in right field, Moss isn't an ideal fit for the bench because he's left-handed like both of those guys. But Moss is out of options, can remain under team control for several more years if he sticks, and (despite his terrible 2009) has some prayer of hitting in 2010. There's really no upside in keeping Vazquez, except as insurance in case Crosby or Ronny Cedeno gets hurt or doesn't make the team. And even leaving Moss aside for a second, I'd probably rather keep Raynor and Steve Pearce as the last two bench guys than give a spot to Vazquez.

Of course, worrying about the Pirates careers of Vazquez and (probably) Moss is a deck chairs / Titanic situation. If Pedro Alvarez comes up, Vazquez will be gone, and if Jose Tabata comes up or the Pirates acquire another corner player, Moss will probably be gone. In the meantime, though, I think he could be a pretty decent bench outfielder--I think he's a bit better as a hitter than he showed in 2009, and his defense is good. It would be nice to stick with him for a couple more months before dumping him completely.

Down on the Farm: Snippets from MLB.com

raygu — Tue, 01 Dec 2009 18:00:12 -0000

I've been waiting for the MLB.com beat writers to start writing their normal offseason Inbox articles, and today a bunch of them responded. The Mets beat writer Marty Noble and and the Marlin's Joe Frisaro were the only ones writing the Inbox articles until today.

Here are a few snippets regarding some of the top prospects:

Mark Bowman, Braves:

Can the Braves move Chipper Jones to first base and maybe look for a third baseman?
-- Edward G., Santiago, Dominican Republic

Chipper has said numerous times that he'd accept a move to the other corner if the Braves had a better third-base option. While they don't currently have a better option in their system, they could be tempted to make this move if they were to grab Chone Figgins, Adrian Beltre or Pedro Feliz off the free-agent market.

But with the strong possibility that Freddie Freeman could be ready to assume his role as the everyday first baseman by the start of the 2011 season, where would you then play Chipper during the final two years of his contract?

Ken Gurnick, Dodgers:

It sounds like the Dodgers already have no chance at trading for Roy Halladay. If their farm system is so good, why can't they swing deals for big-name players the way the Yankees, Mets and Red Sox do?
-- Seth F., Vero Beach, Fla.

Actually, they made one of the biggest trades for a big-name player in recent years in 2008 -- for Manny Ramirez. In the case of Halladay, if the Blue Jays insist on a Major League starting pitcher in return -- and why wouldn't they? -- then the Dodgers are not a fit. That's the Dodgers' need, not a surplus. General manager Ned Colletti has said he doesn't believe he can improve his starting rotation by trading away a pitcher out of that starting rotation. One thing you haven't heard in recent years is that the Dodgers have blocked young talent, because their young talent has become the nucleus of the team. So there isn't a surplus of Major League-ready players to trade for marquee players. And one who would qualify in that category, Blake DeWitt, is likely to get a shot to be the starting second baseman next year.

More after the jump:

Marty Noble, Mets:

Daniel Murphy is not the answer at first base. The club should re-sign Carlos Delgado for one year, allowing him to demonstrate whether he has anything left. I believe he is an all around better player than Murphy, who seems like he cares, but I'm convinced he at best is a bench player. They should wait for Ike Davis to develop.
-- John A., Whitestone, N.Y.

I'm not sure about Delgado. The Mets have questions about his ability to move at first base. Off what I saw in 2007 and the first half of 2008, I have questions about his willingness to move. His bat seemed potent in the games he played before his hip surgery developed in May.

I suspect you and the club aren't on the same page about Murphy. And I don't see how Murphy and Delgado fit in the same roster, particularly if a right-handed-hitting first baseman is needed. But you and the club seem to agree on Davis. And I have the same sense. Give him time to develop.

Carrie Muskat, Cubs:

Have you heard if Ryan Theriot has been working on his footwork at second base? I believe Jeff Baker has more value off the bench with Aramis Ramirez having his shoulder issues and such.
-- Aaron L., Chicago

Theriot has been told to dust off his second baseman's glove because he could be switching to second base if the Cubs decide top prospect Starlin Castro is ready for the big leagues. Theriot has played second before in the Major Leagues, last doing so in 2007 (37 games). I agree about Baker being a valuable player to have on the bench.

Adam McCalvy, Brewers:

How does the addition of Carlos Gomez affect Lorenzo Cain's future with the organization?
-- Michael Holyoke, Thiensville, Wis.

It slows Cain's progress to the Majors, though injuries in 2009 probably took care of that already. Cain missed time with a left knee injury and then struggled to trust the knee when he returned, according to Nichols. Cain will begin the year at Double-A Huntsville or perhaps Triple-A Nashville while Gomez gets a chance to dig a foothold in Milwaukee. Remember, Gomez is raw himself (at least offensively) so there remains plenty of opportunity for guys like Cain or Logan Schafer or Caleb Gindl.

Jenifer Langosch, Pirates:

Why can't we look at moving Ryan Doumit back to right field to fill our offensive needs rather than trade him? -- Bob, Fombell, Pa.

That would seem to be a viable possibility, but not one the Pirates have shown interest in really exploring further for whatever reason. When I asked Huntington about the possibility of Doumit playing right field, he said the organization sees it as a possibility right now only on days when Doumit is off behind the plate. As a result, don't be surprised if you do see Doumit make a handful of spot starts in right when he isn't catching, in order to keep his bat in the lineup. You'll remember Doumit did just that one time last September.

Keep in mind, too, that the Pirates' right fielder is likely to soon be Jose Tabata. So, if the Pirates do pursue a corner outfielder this winter, it would likely be for a short-term fit. It might not be the best option to move Doumit to right knowing that he wouldn't be able to stay there but for a few months.

Jenifer Langosch, Pirates:

Where does Milledge fit into next year's lineup? I think he played a pretty strong second half this past year, and showed some improvements in his game. Is he an outfielder of the future, along with Andrew McCutchen?
-- Jake C., Kent, Ohio

If the Pirates' starting lineup is made up of players currently within the organization (meaning no additional offseason adds), I could very well see Milledge slotting into the fifth spot in the batting order, behind Doumit. Milledge finished the season by hitting .311 in his final 44 games, and there's no reason to believe he can't sustain offensive numbers like that for a longer period of time. Also, both Milledge and the Pirates' staff expect him to show more power in 2010 now that his right hand has returned to full strength after an early-season injury.

I do think you can mention Milledge as one of the club's potential outfielders of the future. He was not brought in as a placeholder. In fact, at this time next year, I'd expect we'll be talking about a pretty intriguing outfield trio of Milledge, McCutchen and Tabata.

Baseball America's Top 10 Prospect Lists for 2010

raygu — Thu, 26 Nov 2009 18:00:18 -0000

We continue the Baseball America Top 10 Prospect lists for 2010 with the NL Central:

Cubs

1.	Starlin Castro, ss
2.	Brett Jackson, of
3.	Josh Vitters, 3b
4.	Andrew Cashner, rhp
5.	Jay Jackson, rhp
6.	Hak-Ju Lee, ss
7.	Logan Watkins, 2b
8.	Chris Carpenter, rhp
9.	Ryan Flaherty, ss/2b/3b
10.	D.J. LeMahieu, ss/2b

More after the jump:

Reds

1.	Todd Frazier, of/2b/3b
2.	Yonder Alonso, 1b
3.	Mike Leake, rhp
4.	Chris Heisey, of
5.	Juan Francisco, 3b
6.	Yorman Rodriguez, of
7.	Travis Wood, lhp
8.	Matt Maloney, lhp
9.	Brad Boxberger, rhp
10.	Zack Cozart, ss

Brewers

1. Alcides Escobar, ss

2. Brett Lawrie, 2b

3. Mat Gamel, 3b

4. Eric Arnett, rhp

5. Jonathan Lucroy, c

6. Kentrail Davis, of

7. Zach Braddock, lhp

8. Lorenzo Cain, of

9. Jake Odorizzi, rhp

10. Kyle Heckathorn, rhp

Astros

1. Jason Castro, c

2. Jiovanni Mier, ss

3. Jordan Lyles, rhp

4. Sammy Gervacio, rhp

5. Chia-Jen Lo, rhp

6. Ross Seaton, rhp

7. Tanner Bushue, rhp

8. Jay Austin, of

9. Jon Gaston, of

10. T.J. Steele, of

Pirates

1. Pedro Alvarez, 3b

2. Jose Tabata, of

3. Tony Sanchez, c

4. Brad Lincoln, rhp

5. Chase D'Arnaud, ss/2b

6. Starling Marte, of

7. Tim Alderson, rhp

8. Zack Von Rosenberg, rhp

9. Rudy Owens, lhp

10. Gorkys Hernandez, of

Cardinals

1. Shelby Miller	rhp
2. Jaime Garcia	lhp
3. Lance Lynn	rhp
4. Daryl Jones	of
5. David Freese	3b/1b
6. Eduardo Sanchez	rhp
7. Allen Craig	of/1b/3b
8. Blake Hawksworth	rhp
9. Daniel Descalso	2b
10. Robert Stock	c

What About Depth?

Charlie — Thu, 26 Nov 2009 03:04:21 -0000

Sorry for the absence of updates the past few days; it can be hard to post when there isn't much news coming out.

Anyway, there was some interesting discussion of the BA top prospects here, and the basic take-away criticism (particularly from Mike Emeigh, a smart long-time Pirates fan and critic) is that the Pirates' farm system still isn't that strong yet. If you look only at the ten-player list BA published, I think that's true, but I don't think a list of ten players tells the whole story.

Frank Coonelly and Neal Huntington have been on the job about two years, and thus have had two drafts to improve what was essentially a barren system. They've also fixated pretty intensely on high school talent after the first round in those drafts, at least in the guys to whom they've paid big bonuses. Lots of them have considerable upside, but given their age, understandably haven't done enough to make it into the top ten yet. And so any evaluation of the Pirates' system that doesn't take guys like Robbie Grossman, Quinton Miller, Jarek Cunningham, Colton Cain and Trent Stevenson into account just isn't really getting it done.

Then there's the fact that the Pirates traded away most of their starting players, and only three players acquired in those trades (Jose Tabata, Tim Alderson and Gorkys Hernandez) fit into BA's top ten--and even then, including Hernandez was probably a stretch. The problem was that besides Jason Bay, the Pirates didn't have anyone particularly good to trade. The Pirates' return for Bay was mediocre, which hurt, but it was counterbalanced by the fact that they got a very good prospect (Tabata), a good starting pitcher (Ross Ohlendorf) and another interesting player (Dan McCutchen) for Xavier Nady and Damaso Marte. That trade was, it turns out, a steal for the Pirates.

Beyond that, the Pirates' problem has been that teams are increasingly unwilling to trade genuinely excellent prospects. It's a hard enough sell to get two great prospects when you're trying to trade Cliff Lee. When you're trying to trade Jack Wilson, it's pretty much impossible. As a result, a lot of the players the Bucs got in trades fit into the #11-#30 bracket. This includes Jeff Locke (from the Nate McLouth deal), Brett Lorin and Nathan Adcock (from Wilson and Ian Snell) and Josh Harrison (from John Grabow and Tom Gorzelanny).

All of which is to say that the Pirates have done pretty well with the options available to them, and given the obstacles they've encountered in getting obvious impact talents, they've done well in building a farm system that's 30 deep, not just ten deep. And there's really nothing wrong with most of the guys they've acquired, either in the draft or in trades, and it wouldn't be at all surprising if several from among Grossman, Miller, Cunningham, Cain, Stevenson, Locke, Lorin, Adcock, Brooks Pounders, Victor Black and Justin Wilson broke out and joined the top ten next year.

The top ten still does look a bit thin right now. But I'm not sure how Huntington and Coonelly could have acquired a bunch of talent much faster. Getting more for Bay would have been great, as would signing Miguel Sano. And reasonable people can disagree about the Pirates' strategy in the first round of the 2009 draft. Overall, though, I think their plan and execution have been quite good. And I think that if Dave Littlefield had done his job and left some interesting guys in A-ball who'd just now be graduating into the top ten themselves, there wouldn't seem to be a problem. Huntington and Coonelly have been placed in the awkward position of having to acquire lots of those sorts of players themselves and then wait for them to develop.

Part 1-Interview with Project Prospect's Adam Foster

raygu — Mon, 23 Nov 2009 17:29:13 -0000

Since joining the UBA NL-only roto league where I needed to increase my knowledge of all the prospects in MLB, I started checking out the various sites that cover them including Baseball Prospectus, Baseball America and John Sickel's Minor League Ball. Another site I used quite often is Project Prospect, run by Adam Foster. Adam was nice enough to answer some questions about his site, rankings system and prospect questions for Fake Team readers.

Today I have part 1 of the interview.

Fake Teams: You run a wonderful prospect site-Project Prospects, tell us how you got started with the site, and interested in scouting.

Adam Foster: I started Project Prospect during my senior year in college (2006). My roommates all went home that summer, so I had a lot of free time.

I was already pretty involved in researching prospects for my fantasy league. And I realized that there was very little MiLB coverage out there. So I started following the minors daily and gathering prospect information.

The next step was getting my internship with Baseball America that winter. I started to gain an understanding of scouting when I worked with BA staffers John Manuel, Matt Eddy, Aaron Fitt, Alan Matthews, Matt Meyers and Chris Kline. Those guys helped me learn a ton about the minors.

Fake Teams: Some sites do rankings based on what the player's potential ceiling is, while others base their rankings based on scouting. How does Project Prospect do their rankings? Is it a combined effort with the other writers on the site, and what are your rankings based on?

Adam Foster: We've evolved to put a lot of weight into a prospect's floor, which typically frustrates fantasy owners. Prospecting has been largely about ceiling over the past decade. We believe than an average big leaguer is very valuable, so we don't shy away from guys who don't have star potential.

I've had dozens of great writers make contributions to the site over our 3+ year history. They've all made an impact on how we rank prospects.

Our first few years, we largely ranked off of numbers. We weren't going out and seeing guys play regularly at that point, so we didn't have much else to work with. We've made a major effort to see guys play this year. I'd be surprised if any publication has been to more 2009 minor league games than Project Prospect - I've travelled thousands of miles to attend Minor League Spring Training, California League games, Pacific Coast League and the Arizona Fall League. We have contributors all over the country who pride themselves on going to games, too. Our goal is to become a community scouting department. Even if we aren't professionally trained scouts, we know a lot about the game and we're getting so many opinions that our information winds up being pretty good.

We've also benefitted from the fact that most prospect media members don't put much energy into quantitative analysis. For some reason, many of the big dogs still are attached to batting average, win-loss totals, ERA and countable stats.

We continue to hone our statistical approach, but we're trying to stay up-to-date with advanced applications of college and minor league baseball statistics. We've communicated with professional front offices about how they utilize numbers. And I think we're on the right track.

Fake Teams: Your site is up against some heavyweights in the prospect/scouting industry, how does your site differ from how the others do their rankings?

Adam Foster: We've put a lot of energy into peer review. On top of going back and figuring out what we could have done better, we also analyze the strengths and weaknesses of other publications. We're constantly making efforts to improve our work...we're hungry.

For example, many of the prospects who have been missed over the last 10 years are guys without high ceilings. That brings us back to the appreciation for guys with high floors. We tend to be higher on that type of player than most publications.

But again, I think our biggest strength our hunger. I know how other publications create their lists. And I know there's room for improvement across the board in media prospect coverage.

Fake Teams: I see you recently attended some Arizona Fall League games. What prospects impressed you the most? The least?

Adam Foster: Josh Bell really impressed me with his defense at third base. He could be above-average all around there. Jonathan Lucroy, Brandon Snyder, Jose Tabata, Starlin Castro and Mike Leake also impressed me.

Casey Kelly and Grant Desme looked lost at the plate more often than not. I also walked away with less confidence in Brandon Allen than I had a few months ago - pitchers were picking him apart. And I didn't realize that Casper Wells is too thick to be a center fielder and such a poor contact hitter.

Fake Teams: How much weight do you put into AFL performances, as it appears to be more of a hitter's league every year?

Adam Foster: Not only do the AFL parks favor hitters, but the pitching is well behind the hitting overall. Guys put up crazy power numbers. Fly balls float out of the park. And while the hitters do typically see 4-5 pitchers a game, I doubt the pitchers really have much info on the hitters they're facing.

I've primarily been looking at strikeouts and walks in the AFL. But yeah, a 75-125 PA/TBF sample can only take you so far. If you take one thing away from reading this transcript, it should be to be careful about giving up much value for Grant Desme right now.

Arizona Fall League: Jose Tabata Goes 6-for-7, Posey Drives in 4

raygu — Fri, 20 Nov 2009 16:30:11 -0000

by Chris Carlson - AP

3 months ago: San Francisco Giants' Buster Posey gets his first major league hit against the Los Angeles Dodgers during the ninth inning of a baseball game in Los Angeles, Saturday, Sept. 19, 2009. (AP Photo/Chris Carlson)

View full size photo »

The Arizona Fall League regular season came to a close on Thursday. Highlighting the day was the Pirates outfield prospect Jose Tabata going 6 for 7 with 4 runs scored and 3 RBI. Quite a day for a prospect I just traded for in the UBA league. I am just curious if he will make it to Pittsburgh in 2010.

Here is what ESPN's Keith Law had to say when I asked this question in a recent chat:

rayg (burlington, nj)
Will Tabata take over RF in Pitt over Garrett Jones in 2010?

Klaw (2:03 PM)

No. I think that's a year early.

I am not so sure since the Pirates could move Jones to 1B should he duplicate his 2009 season. But, Tabata is not your typical corner outfielder either, as he has not show much power in his minor league career. He is only 22 so the power could develop, but we've heard that about James Loney in the past, haven't we?

Let's take a look at the top performances on the last day of the AFL after the jump:

Jose Tabata-6-7, 4 RS, 2 2B, 3 RBI (.392)

Chase D'arnaud-2-4, 4 RS, 2 SB (13), 3 BB, 2 K (.292)

Brandon Allen-2-5, 2 RS, RBI, SB, 2 BB, 2 K (.177)

Thomas Neal 2-5, 2 RS, 2 SB (12), RBI, (.284)

Buster Posey-2-4, 4 RBI (.225)

Wilin Rosario-2-5, 5 RBI (.304)

Dustin Ackley 2-5, RS (.315)

Jordan Danks-2-4, 3 RS, HR, 3 RBI (.343)

Brent Morel-3-4, 2 RS, 3 RBI (.435)

Andrew Lambo-2-5, 2B, 2 RBI (.330)

Danny Espinosa-0-2 (.345)

Josh Bell-1-3, RS, 2B, RBI (.319)

Chris Marrero-2-4, 2B, RBI (.349)

Marcus Lemon-2-5, RS, HR, RBI (.343)

Reese Havens-3-4, 2 RS, HR, 2 RBI (.368)

Ike Davis-2-4, RS (.341)

Taylor Teagarden-1-4, RS, HR, 3 RBI (.212)

Mike Moustakas-1-4 (.267)

Daryl Jones-1-3, RS, 2B (.205)

Lance Zawadzki-3-5, 3 RS, 2B, HR, 3 RBI (.324)

Matt McBride-2-4, RS, RBI, SB, BB (.378)

Yonder Alonso-1-5, RS, 2B, 2 RBI (.267)

Brandon Hicks-3-5, 2B, RBI (.310)

Bryan Peterson-0-3 (.379)

Starlin Castro-0-3 (.376)

Josh Vitter-1-4 (.353)

Mike Leake-4 Inn, 2 H, 4 K (1.37)

Craig Kimbrel-1 Inn, 2 BB, 3 K (10.45)

Andrew Miller-4 Inn, 3 H. 1 ER, 3 K (5.28)

SB Nation - Jose Tabata

Down on the Farm: John Sickel's Top 20 Pirates Prospects for 2010

Jeff Clement Penciled in at First

Pittsburgh Pirates Top 20 Prospects for 2010

Down on the Farm: Snippets from Baseball America's Top 10 Lists

Should Ramon Vazquez Keep His Roster Spot?

Down on the Farm: Snippets from MLB.com

Baseball America's Top 10 Prospect Lists for 2010

What About Depth?

Part 1-Interview with Project Prospect's Adam Foster

Arizona Fall League: Jose Tabata Goes 6-for-7, Posey Drives in 4

rayg (burlington, nj) Will Tabata take over RF in Pitt over Garrett Jones in 2010?

Klaw (2:03 PM)

rayg (burlington, nj)
Will Tabata take over RF in Pitt over Garrett Jones in 2010?