SB Nation - Chuck Lofgren

Tuesday's Frosty Mug

KLSnow — Tue, 15 Dec 2009 15:38:02 -0000

Craig Counsell slides right into the projected 2010 roster.

Some things to read while she digs for her phone.

It's finally time to back off the comments about Randy Wolf not wanting to be here. Wolf said all the right things in his introductory press conference yesterday, and now actually appears happy to be a Brewer. Jen Lada was also at the press conference, and tweeted four quotes giving a nice feel for Wolf and the organization's excitement to have him.

The Brewers also announced Craig Counsell's new deal yesterday (FanShot). Counsell will earn $2.1 million next season along with some playing time incentives. The Bucky Channel says moves like this one are "crucial when trying to make a smaller market team a contender." Fire Doug Melvin is fine with the move, as long as Counsell doesn't take playing time away from Mat Gamel.

With Wolf and Counsell officially on board and LaTroy Hawkins (physical on Wednesday) and Claudio Vargas (physical on Friday) expected to be added by the end of the week, Adam McCalvy notes that the Brewer 40 man roster is about to be full, which might mark the end of any major Brewer moves in free agency. Two notes on that:

If you're still waiting for the Brewers to sign another starting pitcher, odds are you'll be waiting for a while. Adam McCalvy said Doug Melvin probably regrets comments he made months ago suggesting the Brewers were looking to sign two starters.
Secondly, the 40 man roster may be full, but it's a "soft" full. Room could almost certainly be made by outrighting new acquisition Luis Cruz or Tim Dillard, who would most likely go unclaimed at a time of year when no one has many 40 man spots to spare.

The roster crunch was one of the reasons cited for non-tendering Mike Rivera. Brewed Sports isn't too happy with the decision, and also notes that non-tendering the team's lone returning catcher pokes a hole in arguments used to support starting Jason Kendall last season.

Speaking of crowded situations, you can add David Riske to the list of pitchers to pencil into a bullpen spot to start the season. Doug Melvin said Riske expects to be ready for spring training (FanShot). That's bad news for Chris Smith, Chris Narveson, Zach Braddock and Chuck Lofgren, among others, who now may be fighting for one roster spot. If Mark DiFelice hadn't gone down, they'd all come to Maryvale on the outside looking in. A lot can happen between now and then, of course.

And speaking of Chris Smith, Brewerfan.net asked someone from the Brewer organization to verify some of their option info, and discovered that Smith doesn't have any options left. Obviously, Smith wouldn't be a major loss, but it's possible someone would claim him if he were available.

Meanwhile, we reached the final conclusion of the Mike Cameron era in Milwaukee yesterday, as he agreed to a two year deal with the Red Sox (FanShot). Cameron's strikeouts and one memorable dropped fly ball made him a polarizing talent as a Brewer, but most advanced metrics seem to agree on his significant value, and you'll rarely hear anything negative said about him as a teammate and clubhouse presence. If you missed it last night, Jordan has a goodbye post for him.

How lucky are the Brewers to have Ryan Braun? I think we occasionally forget how rare it is for a player to have an impact as immediate as his in the major leagues. Braun hit the second most home runs of any major leaguer in their first 162 games, and also collected the tenth most hits, making him the only player to appear on both lists.

Speaking of luck, Braden Looper's 14 wins last season made him the most unlikely winner in major league history.

Another day, another new poll for our BCB All Decade Team. You have until 4 pm today to select a catcher, and until 4 pm tomorrow to select our final starting outfielder. So far Damian Miller and Geoff Jenkins are leading those votes, respectively.

After looking at the candidates at catcher, I'm starting to wish I had gone this route instead: Camden Chat has an All-Awful lineup for the 2000-2009 Orioles.

And actually, speaking of awful: Rob Neyer has a ranking of the Top 100 players of the 2000's, and while former Brewers CC Sabathia (#25), Mike Cameron (#36), Ray Durham (#71), Jose Valentin (#88) and Corey Koskie (#92) are on it, Prince Fielder is nowhere to be found.

Around baseball:

Angels: Signed Hideki Matsui to a one year, $6.5 million deal.
Astros: Re-signed outfielder Jason Michaels to a one year deal.
Blue Jays: Signed catcher Ramon Castro to a one year, $1 million deal.
Mariners: Signed catcher Eliezer Alfonzo to a minor league deal.
Marlins: Signed pitcher Clay Hensley to a minor league deal.

Of course, the biggest transaction "announced" yesterday appears to be far from done, and may take several days to be made official: A three way deal would send Roy Halladay to the Phillies, Cliff Lee to the Mariners and prospects to the Blue Jays. You might recognize this trade as one several bloggers mocked Ken Rosenthal for suggesting over the weekend. I guess he knows something after all.

Happy birthday today to 2005-2006 Brewer Rick Helling, who turns 39.

Drink up.

Monday's Frosty Mug

KLSnow — Mon, 14 Dec 2009 15:18:55 -0000

by Jim Prisching - AP

Craig Counsell is expected to re-sign today.

View full size photo »

Some things to read while John Tesh rocks the NBA on NBC theme (h/t Amy K. Nelson).

Randy Wolf is expected to undergo a physical this morning and once he does, expect his contract to become official sometime later today. That might not be today's only announcement, though: the Brewers are also expected to finalize a deal with Craig Counsell today. With Counsell, Prince Fielder, Rickie Weeks, Alcides Escobar, Mat Gamel and Casey McGehee all on the roster, the Brewers' Opening Day infield is probably set, barring injury or trade.

Meanwhile, Mike Rivera is surprised to be looking for work after being non-tendered over the weekend. He thought the decision not to retain Jason Kendall would give him an edge as the only returning catcher familiar with the Brewer pitching staff.

As of this writing, roughly 4% of voters in the poll on your right listed the decision to offer Dave bush a 2010 contract as the one Brewer move from this weekend they would change. That's not exactly a large chunk of the fanbase, but In-Between Hops is taking on that vocal minority, making the case that the Brewers made the right move by giving Bush another shot.

If you missed Morineko's Weekend Mug, follow the link over to it for full coverage of the Brewers' arbitration decisions, and a link to this list of all the non-tenders leaguewide.

Looking back at last week, Jon Heyman ranked the Brewers among the Winter Meeting winners. Meanwhile, Marc Hulet of The Baseball Analysts listed Rule 5 selection Chuck Lofgren in the "Why Bother?" category.

The more I think about it, the more I think Lofgren will have a tough task ahead of him if he's going to make the team out of spring training. With Trevor Hoffman, LaTroy Hawkins, Todd Coffey, Claudio Vargas and Mitch Stetter back, there's only two bullpen spots left that are potentially available (barring injury), and Chris Smith, John Axford, Chris Narveson, Zach Braddock and now Lofgren fighting for them. I like Lofgren's potential and hope the Brewers will get an opportunity to realize it, but right now he might be the third or fourth best lefty in the bullpen competition.

If you have a vague interest in Brewer baseball, but wish there was less analysis and more profanity on this site, then Miller Park Drunk's RUNNING series might be just the ticket for you. Follow these links for bad Prince Fielder jokes, some fan fiction involving Ryan Braun trying to rap, and a vague musical reference to Rickie Weeks.

In the minors: Baseball Intellect has video footage of some at bats featuring Cameron Garfield, Cutter Dykstra and Josh Prince from a Pioneer League game back in July. They're pay-only, but there are worse ways to spend $2.95.

If you were gone this weekend, you didn't miss the opportunity to help select a center fielder and catcher for the BCB All Decade Team. Voting closes at 4 pm today for center fielders and 4 pm tomorrow for catchers. We'll open the voting for the final starting outfield spot later today.

Around baseball:

Blue Jays: Signed catcher John Buck to a one-year deal worth $2 million, signed Joey Gathright to a minor league deal,
Braves: Signed Matt Diaz to a one year, $2.55 million deal, avoiding arbitration.
D-Backs: Re-signed infielder Augie Ojeda to a one year deal, and avoided arbitration with Blaine Boyer.
Dodgers: Signed pitcher Josh Towers to a minor league deal.
Giants: Signed shortstop-turned-pitcher Tony Pena Jr. to a minor league deal.
Indians: Re-signed pitchers Adam Miller and Anthony Reyes to minor league deals.
Marlins: Signed catcher Ronny Paulino to a one-year deal, avoiding arbitration.
Nationals: Re-signed Scott Olsen to a one year deal. Also signed pitcher Ryan Speier to a minor league deal.
Padres: Signed pitcher Kevin Correia to a one year deal, avoiding arbitration.
Pirates: Signed Ronny Cedeno to a one year, $1.125 million deal, avoiding arbitration.
Rangers: Signed infielder Esteban German to a one year deal, avoiding arbitration.
Rays: Avoided arbitration with catcher Dioner Navarro and pitchers Grant Balfour, Rafael Soriano, Lance Cormier and Randy Choate.
Royals: Avoided arbitration with pitchers Brian Bannister and Kyle Davies. They also signed pitcher Bruce Chen and catcher Vance Wilson to minor league deals.
White Sox: Signed J.J. Putz to a one year deal.

Meanwhile, the market heated up immediately for Yankees non-tender Chien-Ming Wang, with Ken Rosenthal reporting that six teams have already expressed interest. He doesn't list the teams, but I wouldn't be surprised to discover the Brewers are one of them.

I promise, I'm not going to mention it every time someone says something new about Jason Kendall. In fact, I might try to go the rest of the week without mentioning him at all. With that said, I thought these three links about him were interesting:

Joe Posnanski has a look at the potential Opening Day lineup for the 2010 Royals, now including Kendall.
He also compares Kendall to a superball on the field at Cleveland Municipal Stadium.
Reminding us all how far and how fast Kendall has fallen, Where Have You Gone, Andy Van Slyke? named Kendall the Pirate Catcher of the Decade.

Weeks ago I linked to a post from minor league veteran Garrett Broshuis, mentioning the challenges in finding quality, healthy food in minor league clubhouses. It looks like that problem may be on its way to being resolved: After discussing it at the Winter Meetings, several teams are making an effort to provide healthier options, and remove the constant flow of junk.

If you're a fan of sabermetrics, or just want to learn more about them, I've got two links for you today:

TangoTiger has a look at OPS+, and some minor adjustments that could be made to it to make it more useful than some other advanced metrics.
That post links to this one, Big League Stew's beginner's guide to wOBA. I learned a fair amount by reading that one.

Gorman Thomas celebrated a birthday over the weekend, and while this probably isn't what he had in mind for a gift, David Chalk of Seventh Inning 'Stache has inducted him into the MLB Mustache Hall of Fame.

On this day in 1998, the Brewers acquired Alex Ochoa from the Twins for a minor leaguer named Darrell Nicholas. Ochoa spent one season as a Brewer, hitting .300/.404/.466 before being traded to the Reds for Mark Sweeney after the season.

Happy birthday today to:

Former Seattle Pilot and 1970 Brewer Greg Goossen, who turns 64.
Dave Nilsson, who appeared in 837 games as a Brewer and turns 40.
Marcus Jensen, who appeared in 18 games over two tours as a Brewer and turns 37.

Sean Forman, founder of Baseball Reference, is also celebrating his birthday today. You can help him celebrate by sponsoring a page. I know someone around here will want this one.

Drink up.

Non-tender roundup: Miller and Reyes signed to minor league deals

Jay — Mon, 14 Dec 2009 03:10:39 -0000

Vaporstarter Adam Miller and the oft-injured Anthony Reyes were not tendered contracts by the Indians yesterday, rendering them free agents, but both pitchers signed minor league deals with the Indians just hours later. These transactions remove both pitchers from the 40-man roster while retaining their services for at least one more year. In the (admittedly unlikely) event Miller's career gets back on track this season, this series of moves avoids using up one of his option years, and should the Indians choose in the next year to restore him to the 40-man roster, he will have at least one option year left and will remain under club control at least through 2016. Reyes remains optionless, of course, but still hypothetically could remain under club control through 2013.

The Indians also declined to offer a contract to reliever Jose Veras, who was arbitration eligible, rendering him a free agent, and there is no indication he will be re-signed. Cleveland's 40-man roster now stands at 37, with 18 pitchers and 19 position players.

The Indians did tender a contract to pitcher Rafael Perez, who is eligible for arbitration (and to the other 28 players on the 40-man roster who are not yet eligible). The non-non-tender to Perez was non-unexpected, despite a disastrous season in which he was the fourth-worst reliever in the majors (min. 30 IP) per WXRL, which estimates a reliever's actual impact on the chance of his team winning or losing games. (That's "Win Expectation above Replacement, Lineup-adjusted," if you must know. BP rates Perez as merely the 10th-worst reliever at preventing runs from scoring, but because he blew more runs than his peers in high-leverage game situations, his negative impact on wins and losses was more substantial.)

Perez spent almost two months in the minors but still qualified for arbitration as a Super Two player with several weeks to spare. As a relief pitcher coming off a terrible season with barely enough service time to qualify, Perez is in line to be awarded perhaps the smallest salary of any player going to arbitration, probably less than $1 million. It's worth recalling, at this point, how outstanding Perez was in his truly super two-plus seasons prior to this one. He had a 2.89 ERA (and 152 ERA+) over 149.1 IP. He struck out 9.8 batters per nine innings, with 3.7 strikeouts for every walk. He held lefties to a .241 slugging percentage and allowed them only nine extra-base hits in 249 PA. As long as we keep tendering him contracts, he remains under club control through 2013, and there is a reasonable chance he will re-emerge as an impact reliever, or at the very least a useful one, at some point in that span.

Other notable non-tenders include former Indians Ryan Garko and Ryan Church. Garko of course was traded to the Giants only months ago for a decent enough pitching prospect. Just 115 abysmal AB later, Giants GM Brian Sabean is now saying he doesn't want to pay upwards of $3 million to a guy who isn't really an everyday player. I'm not saying he's wrong, but it's a pretty hilarious statement to make for a guy who will still owes $83 million to Barry Zito for the next four seasons. McCovey Chronicles has a pretty dead-on take on Sabean's curious sequence of decisions. My theory is that you just can't understand how slow this guy is on the basepaths until he's actually on your team, and maybe Wedge actually deked the Giants with respect to Garko's athleticism by playing him in the outfield.

Expect the cleveland.com crowd to clamor for Garko's return, oblivious to the fact that two teams have now deemed him unworthy of an everyday role in the space of just a few months. Despite high regard for his character, I would be surprised if Shapiro brought him back, even at a substantially reduced salary. I rather expect Garko will be signed by a GM who scouted him as a college player and was impressed with his stroke. As a lefty batter, Church doesn't really fit in with the Indians' plans. Other interesting non-tenders include Pirates closer Matt Capps, Yankees sinkerballer Chien-Ming Wang, and third baseman Garrett Atkins. Atkins is perhaps best remembered as the guy that the Indians never even considered trading Aaron Laffey to get. I wouldn't be surprised if the Indians took an interest in Mike MacDougal; they seem to like guys who used to be closers.

As for Miller, these moves were unusual, reflecting an unusual situation. The "non-tender" deadline traditionally involves only players who are arbitration-eligible, as there is little reason not to tender a contract to any player on the 40-man roster who isn't eligible, since the most the team can be compelled to pay such a player is the minimum salary, which will remain $400,000 for the 2010 season. Many such players will make less than half that much, if they don't spend much time in the majors.

The latest in Miller's deathless progression of rehab setbacks occurred after rosters were frozen for the Rule 5 draft. Otherwise, the Indians might have chosen to DFA Miller prior to that point, exposing him to waivers. That might have cost the Indians the rights to Chuck Lofgren — but then again, maybe not. The Indians might have protected some other on-the-bubble prospect like Yohan Pino, in which case, Miller's delayed setback actually saved the Indians from burning an option year on whoever-that-would-have-been. And even if Miller clears waivers (and later, presumably, also clears the Rule 5 draft), he would have been granted minor league free agency anyway, since he was originally signed more than six years ago.

In that sense, non-tendering Miller, while unusually, was actually a more straightforward path to the same destination. Either way, he ends up as a free agent, free to sign with any club, but this way, he doesn't have to pass through waivers first. Miller obviously felt some combination of organizational loyalty and faith in the club's ability to rehab him back into a prospect, assuming that's even possible. Reyes has spent far less time in the Indians organization, but he had the same options as Miller and made the same choice. If either player was actually worth something anymore, we might consider feeling good about that.

Friday's Frosty Mug

KLSnow — Fri, 11 Dec 2009 15:33:52 -0000

More photos » by David Zalubowski - AP

I've done pictures of Randy Wolf for three straight days, so here's one of LaTroy Hawkins.

Browse more photos »

Some things to read while compounding the problem.

The Brewer front office staff is back home from the Winter Meetings, so it's time to take a look at the recaps:

MLB FanHouse lists the Brewers as the big winner in the NL Central.
In-Between Hops ranked the Brewers #1 in free agent signings.
Big League Stew ranked the signings of Randy Wolf and LaTroy Hawkins as the meetings' 6th and 7th biggest moves, respectively.
John Steinmiller has a recap with pictures of what the Winter Meetings looked like from inside the Brewers' suite.

For the time being, the title of "newest Brewer" belongs to Rule 5 selection Chuck Lofgren, and he's excited for the opportunity. He's been a starter throughout the minors, but it sounds like he'll be given a shot to make the team as a situational lefty. Don't underestimate the value of having one more guy in the bullpen who could be called upon to make a spot start if needed. With that said, he is at best a complement to Mitch Stetter, not a replacement.

Meanwhile, for the second straight day I'm writing about a pitcher who doesn't actually want to be here. Yesterday, it was LaTroy Hawkins, who was "very disappointed" not to return to Houston. Today it's Randy Wolf, who really wanted to return to the Dodgers. Kudos to these guys for being honest, I guess, but would throwing in a "The Brewers are my team now, and I'll work my butt off for them" be too much to ask for?

We could be waiting a while longer for a decision from Mark Mulder. The Brewer front office staff will reportedly visit Mulder in January. Given the fact that this was being reported as a nearly done deal months ago, I'd guess there's a question about Mulder's health.

With Rickie Weeks, Alcides Escobar and Carlos Gomez all projected as members of the opening day starting lineup, Ken Macha has acknowledged he'll probably have the runners in motion much more often during the 2010 season. That prompted Miller Park Drunk to launch their "RUNNING" series. I'll link to the Ken Macha and Corey Hart chapters here...the other two are a little too obscene to even be linked from this site.

In the minors:

Tom H. has a great look (with a terrible headline) at the situation faced by Jeremy Jeffress, as he prepares to return to the minor leagues knowing that one more positive drug test will be the end of his baseball career. Jeffress, who will spend the first few months of the 2010 season in extended spring training, is saying all the right things, but I'll believe it when I see it.
Earlier this week I mentioned Project Prospect's look at the speed of AFL players, and mentioned the absence of Lorenzo Cain from the rankings. Adam Foster filled in the gap for us by looking back at video and giving Cain a 55-65 rating, which is well above average.

Voting continues for our BCB All Decade Team: You have until 4 today to cast your vote for a shortstop, where J.J. Hardy leads Mark Loretta by 281 votes as of this writing. The voting is much closer at third base, where Bill Hall leads Craig Counsell by 54 votes with Russell Branyan and Ryan Braun not too far behind. Voting for our first outfield spot will open at 4 today.

Around baseball:

Astros: Signed Pedro Feliz to a one year, $4.5 million deal and reliever Gary Majewski to a minor league deal.
Athletics: Released reliever Santiago Casilla.
Nationals: Released pitcher Zach Segovia.
Reds: Signed infielder Chris Burke to a minor league deal.
Rockies: Signed Chris Iannetta to a three year deal worth $8.3 million, buying out his arbitration years.

I've already mentioned the Brewer Rule 5 draft pick, Chuck Lofgren, but he's nowhere near the best name selected in the draft. Those honors go to former National/new Blue Jay Zech Zinicola.

The possibility of winter league injury probably keeps some front office execs up at night during the offseason, and in all honesty I'm surprised it doesn't happen more often. D-Backs outfielder Gerardo Parra suffered a muscle tear in his left thigh and is coming home from winter ball in Venezuela (h/t AZ Snakepit).

If you like charts and graphs and you're looking for something to play with today, you should check out Chartball. I only spent a few minutes there this morning, but they've got some fun interactive tools to work with. (h/t Baseball Musings)

On this day in 1997, the Brewers traded Gerald Williams to the Braves for Chad Fox. The deal worked out pretty well for both sides: Williams hit .286/.341/.475 over two seasons as a Brave, and Fox was healthy for two of four seasons in Milwaukee, including the 2001 season, where he appeared in 65 games and posted a 1.89 ERA.

Happy birthday today to Josh Butler, who turns 25.

Oh, and I'm writing today's Mug before breakfast, so this was fascinating. I'm off to go find food.

Drink up.

Rule 5 Draft Impressions

John Sickels — Thu, 10 Dec 2009 17:57:26 -0000

2010 Rule 5 Draft Review

There wasn't a lot of super-exciting action in the Rule 5 draft this year, but some interesting players did change hands. From the look of it, most teams were on the lookout for bullpen help, which makes sense since it is easier to carry an extra pitcher these days than an extra hitter.

1) Yankees: Jamie Hoffman, OF, from Dodgers: The Yankees traded up to make sure they got Hoffman, who hit .284/.360/.455 this year for Triple-A Albuquerque and .182/.167/.409 in 14 games with the Dodgers. The 25-year old is a right-handed hitter and thrower with average tools, including decent speed, occasional power, and fairly good plate discipline. He can be a useful reserve outfielder.

2) Pirates: John Raynor, OF, from Marlins: Another potential reserve outfielder, the 25-year old Raynor hit .255/.326/.357 for Triple-A New Orleans, but swiped 18 bases. He had a much better season in 2008, hitting .312/.402/.489 with 48 steals for Double-A Carolina. Raynor's speed would look good on the Pirates bench but he probably won't hit enough to be a regular.

3) Rangers: Ben Snyder, LHP, from Giants: Snyder posted a 2.88 ERA with an 86/38 K/BB in 97 innings for Double-A Connecticut this year. The 24-year old Ball State University product struggled as a starter when reaching Double-A in '08, but was much more effective after converting to relief this year. He could provide some solid LOOGY or long relief innings for the Rangers in 2010.

4) Royals: Edgar Osuna, LHP, from Braves: This 22-year old southpaw from Mexico posted a 3.72 ERA with a 49/21 K/BB in 77 innings for Double-A Mississippi in 2009. His fastball isn't very fast, but he changes speeds well and throws strikes with his effective breaking ball. He could be a useful 11^th man, capable of spot starting and long relief work.

5) Indians: Hector Ambriz, RHP, from Diamondbacks: Ambriz is 25 years old, a fifth rounder out of UCLA in 2006. He was mediocre as a starter for Triple-A Reno this year, with a 5.57 ERA and a 103/40 K/BB in 128 innings with 164 hits allowed. He does get his fastball past 90 MPH and has a good splitter, and I could see him being a decent relief arm with spot starter potential.

6) Diamondbacks: Zack Kroenke, LHP, from Yankees: A University of Nebraska product (fifth round 2005), Kreonke posted a 1.99 ERA with a 55/30 K/BB in 72 innings for Triple-A Scranton this year. The 25-year old has an 88-92 MPH fastball with movement, and he could end up being an astute pick as a bullpen asset if his command sharpens a bit more.

7) Mets: Carlos Monasterios, RHP, from Phillies: This 23-year old from Venezuela posted a 3.73 ERA with a 71/27 K/BB in 82 innings for Class A Clearwater. His 90 MPH sinking fastball is an asset and he throws strikes, but scouts give mixed opinions about his slider and he's unproven above the A-ball level. If the command is there he can help out in the major league pen. TRADE: He was sold to the Dodgers after the draft.

8) Marlins: Jorge Jimenez, 3B, from Red Sox: A 25-year-old third baseman, Jimenez was a 15^th round pick in 2006 from Porterville Junior College. He hit .289/.366/.422 this year for Double-A Portland, showing decent plate discipline and touches of power with 13 homers. He could fit as a pinch-hitter and platoon player but seems unlikely to become a significant regular.

9) Athletics: Bobby Cassevah, RHP, from Angels: The 24-year old Cassevah posted a 3.68 ERA with a 45/37 K/BB in 73 innings for Double-A Arkansas this year. The strikeout rate was weak, but he gets tons of grounders with his 92-94 MPH sinker, resulting in a 4.03 GO/AO ratio. If he throws strikes, he can be an effective middle reliever.

11) Blue Jays: Zech Zinicola, RHP, from Nationals: The 24-year old Zinicola posted a 1.74 ERA with a 16/9 K/BB in 21 innings for Double-A Harrisburg, but was much less effective for Triple-A Syracuse, with a 7.56 ERA and a 31/10 K/BB in 33 innings but 47 hits allowed. A sixth round pick out of Arizona State in '06, he throws hard and often throws strikes but has an erratic track record. He could be a good middle reliever if he improves his consistency.

12) Brewers: Chuck Lofgren, LHP, from Indians: Lofgren was once a hot prospect, but two erratic seasons have hurt his stock, though perhaps a change of scenery can help him. He posted a 1.48 ERA with a 31/15 K/BB in 43 innings for Double-A Akron this year, but went 6-10, 5.31 with a 62/33 K/BB in 98 innings after moving up to Triple-A Columbus. Sometimes he throws hard, sometimes he doesn't, and his command is likewise inconsistent.

13) Cubs: Mike Parisi, RHP, from Cardinals: The 26-year old Parisi missed almost the entire season recovering from Tommy John surgery, making just five rehab starts in the lower minors. When healthy he shows decent command of three pitches but does not throw hard. He could help out as a mopup man in the back end of the bullpen, but is a long shot to make a huge contribution.

14) Rays: Armando Zerpa, LHP, from Red Sox: The 22-year old Zerpa, a Venezuelan, posted a 1.20 ERA with a 51/14 K/BB in 45 innings for Greenville in the South Atlantic League. He has average velocity but a good slider and has dominated lower-level hitters when his command is on. His command is not always on, so it is unlikely he'll see high-leverage innings in the 2010 bullpen.

15) Mariners: Kanekoa Texeira, RHP, from Yankees: Tezeira posted a 2.84 ERA with an 88-43 K/BB in 101 innings for Double-A Trenton, used as a long reliever and spot starter. The 23-year old has an excellent slider and a solid fastball, but inconsistent control has held him back. He could help out in the bullpen if he solves his command issues.

16) Giants: Steven Johnson, RHP, from Orioles: Baltimore acquired the 22-year old Johnson from the Dodgers this past summer, and he's a very solid sleeper prospect, having pitched very well after moving up to Double-A this year thanks to a complete 90 MPH fastball/curveball/slider/changeup arsenal. He's still inconsistent, but is young and could develop into a solid inning-eater .

17) Cardinals: Ben Jukich, LHP, from Reds: Jukich is 27 years old. A soft-tosser with a good curveball, he went 9-6, 4.10 with a 106/40 K/BB in 123 innings for Triple-A Louisville this year, allowing 125 hits. The former 13^th round pick out of Dakota Wesleyan is having a fine winter ball season in the Dominican Winter League. The Cardinals may be looking at him as a left-handed short man, although his platoon splits haven't been extreme.

18) Phillies: David Herndon, RHP, from Angels: A fifth round pick in 2006 out of Gulf Coast Community College, Herndon posted a 3.03 ERA with a 35/14 K/BB in 65 innings for Double-A Arkansas this year. His fastball velocity is average, but he has a decent sinker and slider and throws strikes, making him an option as a middle reliever. He gets lots of grounders and posted a 2.28 GO/AO at Arkansas.

Thursday's Frosty Mug

KLSnow — Thu, 10 Dec 2009 16:20:18 -0000

by Brian Snyder - AP

Yes, Randy Wolf is a Brewer now.

View full size photo »

Some things to read while remembering that "port" is "left."

Welcome to day one of the Randy Wolf era (FanShot). He'll make $29.5 million over the next three seasons, plus an option for 2010. Reaction to the deal has come from everywhere:

Miller Park Drunk credits the Brewers for signing the best available free agent.
Master Reid of Quevedo at the Buffet says it's a gamble the Brewers had to take at this point.
Erik Manning of FanGraphs explains why this deal shouldn't be compared to the Jeff Suppan signing.
Jordan also offered his thoughts on that topic, and reasonable expectations for Wolf.
Adam McCalvy noted that Wolf's deal is the third richest for a pitcher in team history.
Jorge Says No! says the Brewers are "going for it" in 2010.
Babes Love Baseball thinks the Brewers overpaid for him.
Aaron Gleeman says he'd rather have the deal Rich Harden signed with the Rangers.
Wolf's contract inspired Rob Neyer to write a two parter on the economics of player salaries.
Meanwhile, Diamond Leung has a quote from Wolf about the divorce situation with the McCourts that might have led to Wolf's departure from Los Angeles.

But, the Brewers weren't done there: They decided to burn a little extra money by overpaying for bullpen help. The result is a two-year, $7.5 million deal for LaTroy Hawkins (FanShot). The move ensures the Brewers will have at least three pitchers in their bullpen earning more than $3.5 million next season (Hoffman, Riske and now Hawkins), as well as two pitchers with closing experience, both of which are 37 or older. Two more links on Hawkins: one good, one bad.

Aaron Gleeman notes that Hawkins has posted a 3.35 ERA over the last six seasons, in 379 innings.
Brian McTaggart quoted Hawkins as being "very disappointed" about leaving Houston, which is pretty much exactly what you don't want to hear from a guy you just threw a lot of perfectly good money at.

Both signings and a few other topics came up in Doug Melvin's MLB Network interview last night, which Tristarscoop chronicled for us, in case you missed it.

Since then, Doug Melvin's had an interesting 12 hours or so. First, a valet lost the keys to his car. Then, after presumably getting a ride back to the meetings, Melvin raised his offer to Craig Counsell. Melvin seems confident a deal will get done, and if he's saying so, that means he's pretty sure. Counsell has also spoken to the Reds, but it doesn't sound like there's much happening there.

Meanwhile, what once looked like a sure thing still isn't done: Mark Mulder remains unsigned, and now the Royals are also showing interest in his services.(h/t MLB Trade Rumors)

The Brewers also filled one more spot on their 40 man roster, selecting Indians lefty Chuck Lofgren in the Rule 5 Draft (FanShot). In a later post, Baseball America called him one of the best stories taken. It sounds like he's had a rough couple of years, but he's a big, athletic lefty who throws hard (90-93), so he's exactly the kind of pitcher the Brewers should be seeking out to work with Rick Peterson.

Can't get enough Triple G? Batter's Box Interactive has some photos from a Gregg Zaun at bat in Toronto last season. Zaun was also the starting point for today's Thursday Thinker: stop back for that at noon.

You still have a few hours to cast your vote for a second baseman on our BCB All Decade Team. Voting for that position closes at 4 today. Prince Fielder officially became the first Brewer elected to the team yesterday. Voting for a shortstop opened yesterday and closes at 4 tomorrow. Voting at third base, perhaps the most ~~depressing~~ interesting choice on the team, will open at 4 today.

Around baseball:

Astros: Acquired reliever Matt Lindstrom from the Marlins for two minor leaguers and a PTBNL, and signed Brandon Lyon to a three year, $15 million deal.
Mariners: Signed Corey Patterson to a minor league deal. (FanShot) Also re-signed infielder Josh Wilson.
Mets: Re-negotiated their contract with Henry Blanco, due to concerns over the health of his shoulder.
Orioles: Acquired Kevin Millwood from the Rangers for reliever Chris Ray and a PTBNL.
Padres: Released pitcher Eulogio de la Cruz.
Rangers: Agreed to terms on a one year, $7.5 million deal with Rich Harden, with a club option for 2011 and acquired Mike Lowell from the Red Sox for catcher Max Ramirez.
Rays: Acquired Rafael Soriano from the Braves for reliever Jesse Chavez.
Red Sox: Acquired Boof Bonser from the Twins for a PTBNL or cash.
Royals: Released Mike Jacobs and pitcher John Bale
Tigers: Designated pitcher Freddy Dolsi and catcher Dusty Ryan for assignment.

Two former Brewers continue to search for work, and for once I'd rather have Jay Gibbons. Jason Kendall has received a two-year offer from the Royals, while Gibbons is drawing interest from the Dodgers.

While some players are looking for new teams. J.J. Hardy is busy making friends with his. He recently played in Harmon Killebrew's golf tournament, and the Hall of Famer had some nice things to say about him.

Easily the biggest trade at the meetings so far has been the three way deal involving the Tigers, Yankees and D-Backs. A lot of people are burying Arizona for giving up on Max Scherzer, but Patrick Sullivan of The Baseball Analysts and I agree: The Diamondbacks might come out ahead in this deal, trading a pitcher with an unsure future for two that might pitch in their rotation this season. Meanwhile, no one seems to mention that the Yankees traded two starters and a center fielder for one player.

Ever wonder what folks in minor league front offices do during the offseason? I don't know, but the Timber Rattlers' premiere episode of The Offseason would suggest they have some time on their hands.

With Jason Kendall gone, I guess we probably won't be talking about plunkings as much, and that's probably ok. With that said, Jeremy Greenhouse of The Baseball Analysts has a look at the probability of getting hit by a pitch, and what matchups and velocities make a batter most likely to get plunked.

It's been a pretty busy week at the Winter Meetings, and the flow of information has been dizzying at times. Just imagine how fast information would flow out if the internet was working.

Still looking for a gift for someone this holiday season? I might have a suggestion for you. Boys of Summer is a documentary chronicling Robert Cochrane and his father's summer long road trip to visit all 30 major league parks. The film is now available on DVD for the first time, with all proceeds going to the Michael J. Fox Foundation to help support research on Parkinson's Disease.

On this day in 1986, the Brewers sent Tim Crews and Tim Leary to the Dodgers for first baseman Greg Brock. Brock would go on to hit .261/.348/.387 over five seasons as a Brewer.

Happy birthday today to Doug Henry, who turns 46. Henry pitched the first four seasons of his major league career (1991-1994) as a Brewer, racking up 61 saves.

Drink up.

Fire Everyone! - The Farm System

APV — Thu, 24 Sep 2009 21:28:49 -0000

More photos » by Ross D. Franklin - AP

Travis Hafner, soliciting coaching advice from outside the organization

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This is the eighth installment in a 12-part series.

Part of the Tribe's failure this year can be blamed on the reality that when players were failing to perform in April and May (and there were many), no one was there in Akron or Columbus to step up and provide at least temporary relief. When Fausto Carmona was busy allowing 4+ runs in 10 of his first 12 starts, who was there to step up? Sure, David Huff was there to step in and promptly allow 13 earned runs in his first 6 innings of pro ball, but who was there behind him? And behind that guy? And when the bullpen was busy reading up on seppuku rather than "how to record a major league out" for the first two months, was there really no one better than Matt Herges and Greg Aquino available to fill the holes? Mark Shapiro has said nothing more frequently than the need for depth - the need to prepare for individual failures (which are inevitable) and insure against collective failures. So where was the depth when it was needed to keep the season alive?

One explanation is that it was a failure to acquire the right talent. This is a well hashed argument, and one which might have some validity. There is another possibility, however, that perhaps it is not that we have failed to acquire the right talent, but instead failed to develop the talent we have properly. Perhaps our developmental system, again one of Shapiro's trademarks on the organization has failed. Shapiro has been lauded for installing a system based on combining traditional scouting data with rigorous quantitative assessment and emphasizing consistency throughout the system. Players are supposed to enter into the organization and hear the same things at every level. Maybe some have been hearing the wrong things.

Trying to assess how good a developmental staff the Indians have is probably going to be a failed effort on my part. To really do it right, you would have to compare how the Indians fare relative to other organizations. The best hitters get out 60% of the time. Their greatness is only visible when assessed against everyone else, who get out 69% of the time. The success rate for prospects is much lower than either of the numbers. I don't have time for a thorough comparative analysis, sadly. But we can look internally at what the Tribe has done.

I consider the goal of the developmental staff to accomplish two things:

A good system should help players achieve the potential they were viewed to have when they were drafted/signed (with obvious injury caveats).
A great system should strive to raise the ceiling of their players, and strive to turn them into better players than other teams thought they could be.

How do they do this - I have no idea. But I would like to think they identify weaknesses in a player's game and seek to improve on them. Have the Indians done that? Here are some significant minor leaguers, either assessed by performance, draft or reputation, and how they've progressed (or regressed) while in the Indians system.

2003

Michael Aubrey - Injuries make his development impossible to assess

Brad Snyder - I think Snyder's failures are viewed as a contact problem. I think it is more that he didn't hit for enough power given his high strikeout rate. Here are his K/BB rates from A+, to AA, and two years in Buffalo - 2.5, 2.5, 3, +4...that's not good.

Adam Miller - see Michael Aubrey

Javi Herrera - college defensive catcher (and 3rd round pick), never learned to hit at AA

Ryan Garko - Seems like a success story. He's never developed a lot of power, but aside from his senior year at Stanford he never had a lot of power.

Juan Valdes - Injuries (too much coffee, no doubt)

Kevin Kouzmanoff - Kouz is a developmental success for Cleveland, a guy who raised his ceiling to the point of being trade worthy for future superstar Josh Barfield

Aaron Laffey - Big developmental success. While he's always gotten groundballs in bunches, his improving K-numbers throughout his minor league career attest to his improved secondary stuff, particularly his slider.

2004

Jeremy Sowers - I think it is hard to argue Sowers as a developmental failure. He has consistently dominated the minors. The translation to the big league level is not something I feel justified in blaming the minor league staff entirely for. An argument could be made that more of an effort should have been extended to improve his fastball velocity, but that is tough without incurring all sorts of other mechanical issues.

Justin Hoyman - never got started

Scott Lewis - I think a success story from a developmental perspective. Always did well, but was always described as likely having trouble at the next level. He kept doing well at the next level, up until his injury derailment in the majors.

Chuck Lofgren - Hard to know exactly what has happened or who is to blame for Lofgren, but losing the ability to throw strikes is something I'm happy to assign partial blame to the staff.

Mike Butia - Bad pick

Chris Gimenez - The Tribe turned this 19th round pick into a guy who can play multiple positions including catcher. He's not great, but that's not a bad job for a guy not many people probably thought much of.

Carlton Smith - Another guy who the Indians are trying to turn into something useful. They've managed to take his naturally sinking stuff and turn him into an extreme groundballer out of the pen in Akron this year. I say small victory.

Wyatt Toregas - selected in the 24th round, Wyatt's performance has been up and down, but at various points they've managed to get his plate discipline and/or power up to levels that made his appearance on the big league team this year not surprising. Success.

Tony Sipp - he was a late round flyer who I think we're all glad signed. A success obviously, but it is a little troubling that Sipp's control never showed any improvement.

2005

Trevor Crowe - After looking like he was nothing in 2007 in Akron, he did rebound more towards a reasonably projection given his college performance. Not worth a first round pick, but not the developmental staff's fault.

John Drennen - Haven't been able to put together a solid approach at the plate for Drennen. It's either mediocre power with huge K-rates, or zero power with mediocre plate discipline.

Stephen Head - they really should have worked on his mustache more, or tried to put together a coherent set of skills

Nick Weglarz - projectable big guy from Ontario with limited baseball experience turned into a top prospect...Yes!

Jensen Lewis - Again, from the minor league side of things, this looks like a success

Jordan Brown - Following his 2007 season in Akron, it looked like all he needed to do was add a little power and he'd be a good guy at the plate. Instead he fell apart, losing power, discipline and contact skills. He has rebounded a lot this year, but hasn't recovered his discipline at the plate and given his defensive liabilities, isn't viewed as part of the future. In terms of development, I think Brown is probably a draw.

Kevin Dixon, Joe Ness, James Deters - These three consecutive picks from 2005 all reached Akron and promptly had their careers end, I think we can assign a little failure.

Ryan Edell - Edell, the next pick in that draft, actually made it past Akron this year. Edell is not anything special, but he has followed an advance and struggle, then come back and improve trajectory to the point where he is a depth rotation option for next season. I say success from the development perspective.

Roman Pena - Toolsy, but failed to learn how to not strike out

Neil Wagner - Once viewed as a relief prospect sleeper, Wagner's control has gotten worse as he has moved through the system

2006

David Huff - similar story to Jeremy Sowers. He really looked like he was ready in 2008, but in 2009 his stuff has been lacking. I have a hard time saying this is a failure of the minor league development staff, though.

Steven Wright - he's not a guy we talk much about, but he has slowly and steadily progressed through the system and will likely be a major part of the Columbus bullpen next year. Not a glowing victory, but not a developmental failure.

Josh Rodriguez - Rodriguez has dealt with some injuries, but this seems like a failure. He was highly thought of and got off to a nice pro start in 2007.

Wes Hodges - Again injuries have played a role, but Hodges' power and discipline have deteriorated at each level to the point where now he is a deserved after thought.

Matt McBride - Here I largely question the developmental choices the organization has made. McBride was at catcher, but got moved to corner outfield. He had enough of a projectable bat to be a major league catcher, but it would have and will take a minor miracle to make him a serviceable outfielder. I say development fail.

Adam Davis - He got worse each of his final two seasons at Florida, so I don't blame Cleveland for him not being any good, just for drafting him.

Ryan Morris - A big high-school lefty who the Indians have been unable to teach how to throw strikes

Jared Goedert - Apart from a now legendary 46 game stretch in Lake County, he is 9th round organizational fodder

Paolo Espino - Espino has been moved back and forth from rotation to bullpen, but his improved control this season was a positive step forward for him. I say one for the plus column.

Josh Tomlin - a 19th round pick, Tomlin has been steady in his performance across levels, last season as a stalwart in Akron's pitching staff, to the point of being an interesting guy. Development win.

Vinnie Pestano - Enough marginal improvement in his BB-rate to call this a minor victory.

Chris Nash - Big and raw high school firstbaseman, the Indians have never been able to translate his strength into power or any kind of plate performance. Fail.

Ryan Miller - late round flier who showed signs of life for Lake County in 2008, totally blew up in 2009.

Others

Jon Meloan - not drafted, but clearly a developmental failure. Were never able to right his once promising ship.

Asdrubal Cabrera - huge victory. Cabrera was a hugely underrated guy when we acquired him, but he has been able to translate that potential into actual performance.

Fausto Carmona - huge victory....turned huge failure? But this also involves the major league staff.

Frank Herrmann - Transition to bullpen was successful this season and might prove to be a very smart developmental move. That said, he didn't actually improve any of his numbers in the process.

Hector Rondon - Definitely looks like a victory in progress, has been getting better as he has advanced (at least until the final month of this season).

Rafael Perez - Another victory in terms of his minor league performance. Was a borderline starter turned into a momentarily great reliever.

Jeanmar Gomez - Another seeming victory in progress. His stuff has become more effective as he has moved through the system.

Josh Judy - 34th round 2007 pick, his numbers have also shown steady progress. Could warrant a bullpen look in 2010.

Carlos Rivero - was looking good, but had a definite set back this season in his AA debut

Summary

There are lots of guys I have no doubt missed, and I have intentionally left most of the guys acquired from 2007-present out, because for most of them development is still a work in progress. Generally, I think the Indians developmental system has been adequate, if not extraordinary. We have had pitching successes (Aaron Laffey) and failures (Jon Meloan), hitting successes (Asdrubal Cabrera) and failures (Brad Snyder), college successes (Ryan Garko) and college failures (Wes Hodges), high school successes (Nick Weglarz) and high school failures (Chuck Lofgren). Again, a real study would try to assess this quantitatively and comaratively, but I don't have time for that.

I will say the Indians success with pitchers have seemingly been with developing downward movement on their fastball and/or the development of a slider in particular as an effective secondary pitch. There aren't a ton of changeup success stories in the system, or guys who have developed great power fastballs.

At the plate, it is my sense that certain players who have struggled have gone back and forth between trying to achieve their power potential, while also maintaining a reasonable plate approach. Beau Mills seems to be a case of this in progress, where last season he was showing some signs of actually improving in both areas (following a half-season debut with good power and bad discipline), only to come crashing down in many ways this season. I always find it disappointing when guys who showed plus defensive skills, like Brad Snyder, could not ever quite work it out at the plate enough to get a shot at the major league level. Fire everyone! - mabe. But I'd probably rather see an easing of the constraints on the system. Not an abandonment of the over-arching organizational philosophy on player development, but an openness to the reality that Cleveland is not the greatest organization on the planet and does not have all of the answers.

Just about any individual performance success story or failure can be viewed either as a result of the player's contribution or that of the coaches - so it is impossible to really get at the latter. Only systematic problems give reasonable evidence of organizational failings in this regard. By and large I don't think the Indians system has those. I question sometimes whether the one size fits all approach to development and advancement works for everyone, but some of the player development decisions made this year (Abner Abreu, Lonnie Chisenhall, Zach Putnam) suggest a more flexible approach on behalf of the front office. The bottom line is that I think the Indians do a good job of getting players to perform to the level that is expected of them. There are not that many examples of guys turning into something more than was ever thought possible, but I would guess these are rare in every organization. There are also not a lot of total failures which don't have some major injury component to them. Fire everyone! - maybe. But I'd probably rather just see more humility in the current organizational philosophy towards development. The Indians are not the greatest organization on the planet and do not know the answers to every (or these days any) question. Allowing a little flexibility and opening the channels of communication regarding development up to a few more smart voices might not be a bad idea.

Minor League Overview: The Pitchers

APV — Fri, 31 Jul 2009 15:42:05 -0000

More photos » by Kathy Willens - AP

New Cleveland Indians pitcher Carlos Carrasco is part of newly strengthened system-wide pitching depth

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UPDATE: I've added in Price, Hagadone and the 2007 seasons for Chris Perez and Justin Masterson, the last full season of minor league action they both saw.

I haven't done a full system recap since the end of April, so we are definitely overdue for one, even before the trading deadline movements. In this installment, I'll highlight some of the pitching performances so far this season.

Progress Score Leaders

Hector Rondon: 6.78
Jesse Todd: 6.23
Jeanmar Gomez: 5.11
Alexander Perez: 3.66
Justin Masterson07: 3.13
Nick Hagaone: 2.84
Zach Putnam: 2.23
Jason Knapp: 1.85
Josh Judy: 1.81
Steve Smith: 1.34
Carlos Carrasco: 1.04
TJ House: 0.41

A few notes on these numbers. First, since PS takes into account games started, at this point in the season starters numbers are somewhat disadvantaged relative to relievers. For example, Hector Rondon's 6.78 is a fine score, but if you project his 17 starts to 26 starts the number goes up to an even better 8.58. Carrasco had a mid-6 score last season. Knapp and Scott Barnes also had very high (6+) scores last season, albeit in limited playing time. Kelvin De La Cruz only had 2 starts this season before being shut down, but in those two starts he put up a 12.19 progress score...obviously likely would have come down when his 42% K-rate and nearly 10:1 K:BB rate moved to more realistic numbers.

NET Leaders

Hector Rondon: 48
Jason Knapp: 45
Scott Barnes: 39
Jesse Todd: 34
Zach Putnam: 33
Steve Smith: 31
Ryan Edell: 31
Eric Berger: 30
Santo Frias: 28
Justin Masterson: 27
Alexander Perez/CC Lee: 25

It should be clear that Hector Rondon is having a good season and now, just a step away at AAA Columbus, is arguably our top pitching prospect. These scores seem to give a better view of what the front office sees in Knapp and Barnes. I also think Putnam will be an interesting guy to follow, maybe turning into a cheap version of Bob Howry by late 2010 or 2011.

K/PA (%) Leaders

Chris Perez07: 33.5
Jason Knapp: 30.9
Nick Hagadone: 30.5
Jesse Todd: 29.6
Steve Smith: 29.6
Santo Frias: 29.4
Josh Judy: 28.3
C.C. Lee: 25.5
Hector Rondon: 25.4
Ryan Edell: 25.0
Connor Graham: 24.9
Matt Langwell: 23.7

Not surprisingly this is a reliever-dominated list (although Knapp's spot on the top is striking...and who knew Edell was showing such nice K-rates this year). Other starters above 20% include Bryan Price (23.2), Bryce Stowell (22.7), Eric Berger (22.4), Carlos Carrasco (22.4), Alexander Perez (21.9), and Scott Barnes (21.7). I don't really think Steve Smith is much of a prospect (he's old), but he probably should be pitching someplace higher than Lake County. I still have hope in Santo Frias who was derailed by injury last season and converted to the bullpen.

BB/PA (%)

Josh Tomlin: 4.1
Russell Young: 4.2
Steve Smith: 4.3
Frank Herrmann: 4.7
Hector Rondon: 5.2
Ryan Edell: 5.6
Paolo Espino: 5.6
Justin Masterson07: 6.2
Kyle Landis: 6.4
Jesse Todd: 6.5
Zach Putnam: 6.5

Rondon, Edell, Todd, Putnam...And in case you were wondering who has the best K:BB ratio, it is Steve Smith (6.88), Hector Rondon (4.88), Josh Tomlin (4.88), Jesse Todd (4.55) and Ryan Edell (4.46).

GB%

Nick Hagaone: 70%
Travis Turek: 64%
Russell Young: 60%
Justin Masterson07: 59%
Chris Jones: 58%
Carlton Smith: 57%
Trey Haley: 56%
TJ McFarland: 55%
Zach Putnam/Josh Judy/Connor Graham/Neil Wagner/Jon Holt: 54%

Jeanmar Gomez, TJ House and Zach Jackson are right off this list at 51%. Carlton Smith is doing better in Akron than his brother Corey ever did.

The Movers:

Moving up...

Jeanmar Gomez has had a great season, and not just because of his no-hitter. He's improved his K-rate, BB-rate, GB-rate, and HR-rate, all while advancing from A+ to AA. There are still lots of questions about how he'll perform against higher competition and the quality of his "stuff", but he has without a doubt had a very good season.

Hector Rondon has also had a great season, improving his K, BB, and HR numbers while advancing within spitting distance of Cleveland. While Gomez has improved the view of his ceiling, Rondon has more maintained his position but by moving closer to Cleveland and not stumbling has made the attainment of that ceiling more likely.

Alexander Perez is making the most of his first full season and seems to be at the head of the young, low-A pitchers.

Chuck Lofgren's year has been an improvement, if only because he is actually pitching and throwing strikes. He is far from being the impact guy he once looked like, but he now looks like he might be able to fill a depth starter role in the future. Similarly, Ryan Edell is not a great prospect, but he's had a good year and looks to be an emergency rotation fill-in sometime in 2010 or 2011.

Zach Putnam is having a good, if somewhat uneven (in part reflecting his movement from the rotation to the pen) full-season debut. (ed. note: but Cleveland never drafts the right guys or promotes them aggressively!)

Moving down...

Kelvin De La Cruz and Joey Mahalic were both off to great starts before getting injured. Those injuries trump their great starts.

Trey Haley, Danny Salazar and Bryce Stowell haven't had good seasons. Stowell has had control issues, Salazar hasn't been missing enough bats (which at low-A isn't good), and Haley has had trouble with just about everything (0.6 K:BB !).

Our pitchers who have taken the biggest blows this year are, of course, the guys who have pitched in Cleveland. SLewis's injury problems make him an uncertainty. Huff hasn't been what he was last year. Raffy and Jensen Lewis can lose, it turns out. Carmona...

Final Thought

We have a lot of interesting young pitchers, many of whom are floating around Mahoning Valley and Goodyear, whose rosters I did not cover here. But one of the things I noticed is that, especially the way this season has shredded some of our upper minors pitching depth, the recent acquisition of guys like Barnes, Graham, Knapp and Carrasco really do a lot to fill out our pitching depth. This isn't to say we don't have interesting guys on pretty much all our full roster teams, but with the new pitchers we have multiple potential impact pitchers on each team, which is a much more reassuring position going forward.

Minor Action: April edition

APV — Fri, 01 May 2009 17:08:16 -0000

More photos » by Tony Dejak - AP

Aaron Laffey was the first Clipper to join Cleveland's pitching staff this season, but Jeremy Sowers might not be far behind.

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A month into the season, I think it is fair to begin looking more systematically at how the significant guys in our minor league system are faring. I’ll focus my attention on the guys that matter, a few exceptional performances from guys that probably don’t matter, and last year’s draft class.

Columbus (9-12, last place)

I really thought Columbus would dominate this season given the talent there. So far, not so much – although they have quite a few great individual performances.

Matt LaPorta: .352/.431/.676, 9.8 BB%, 9.8K%, 11 XBHs, +11 Net

For those who were beginning to get nervous about LaPorta at the end of last season…relax. Quite simply, there is nothing not to like about LaPorta’s line. The countdown is well underway as to when we will see him in Cleveland.

Luis Valbuena: .311/.427/.500, 16.7 BB%, 14.4 K%, 8 XBHs, +7 Net

I argued in a recent GameThread that Valbuena’s performance is in many ways more interesting than LaPorta’s. Valbuena is easily handling AAA pitching while, based on team reports, displaying stellar middle-infield defense. It’s hard for me to not get overly excited about a Cabrera-Valbuena DP combination. Great defense. +.400 OBP. Muy buena.

Michael Brantley: .217/.299/.275, 9.1 BB%, 18.2 K%, 3 XBHs, -1 Net

Brantley has struggled with hamstring issues and is clearly not feeling comfortable at the plate. He’s already more than halfway to his entire 2008 strikeout total. After his rave reviews in spring training, this is disappointing.

David Huff: 3-0, 4.09 ERA, 5.02 FIP, 10.0 BB%, 21.1 K%, 36 GB%, -5 Net

Huff is not off to an extraordinary start, and yet has still been effective. Keeping the K-rate over 20% even when he clearly has not been at his best is nice to see. I expect to see his walk rate come back down and GB rate go back up.

Jeremy Sowers: 1-1, 2.25 ERA, 2.61 FIP, 4.8 BB%, 21.2 K%, 42 GB%, +7 Net

Reports have Sowers throwing 93mph, his control has been fantastic so far, and he is getting strikeouts at a higher rate than he has since his debut campaign in 2005. I think many of us, myself included, are skeptical of Sowers. But his success so far this season cannot be ignored and might be the most important performance in Columbus so far this season.

Others…
David Dellucci: .414/.469/.517 – With Hafner DLed, Dellucci’s return is imminent
Michael Aubrey: .404/.431/.635 – I highlight him only because he’s been on a tear
Josh Barfield: .341/.370/.409 – on a 7 game hit streak
Jordan Brown: .309/.371/.509 – another first baseman!
Wes Hodges: .273/.284/.351 – teaming up with Brantley to bring down the offense
Andy Marte: .273/.333/.409 – who? (24 plate appearances)
Chris Gimenez: .151/.270/.245 – another slow, injury tainted start
Wyatt Toregas: .281/.351/.594 – has taken advantage of Gimenez’s struggles with 3 HRs in the past week
John Meloan: 14IP, 14H, 3HR, 4BB, 14K, 5.01 FIP – two bad outings

Akron (16-4, first place)

Despite some early season hitting problems, Akron is finding a way to win in impressive fashion.

Carlos Santana: .262/.405/.623, 19.2 BB%, 14.1 K%, 10 XBHs, +12 Net

As I said yesterday, not all .260 averages are created equally. Santana has been a stud and has done nothing to dampen optimism about his future.

Beau Mills: .266/.286/.380, 2.4 BB%, 14.3 K%, 7 XBHs, -5 Net

This could be going better for Beau. He made big improvements in his plate patience last year, it’d be nice to see him get that back.

Nick Weglarz: .089/.243/.143, 14.3 BB%, 27.1 K%, 1 XBH, -7 Net

Biggest disappointment so far. I wonder how long the Indians will let him struggle before trying to put him into a more comfortable environment, either against lower competition or with a former hitting coach.

Carlos Rivero: .208/.296/.292, 11.0 BB%, 17.1 K%, 4 XBHs, -1 Net

Also disappointing, though the peripherals are much better than with Weglarz. And for whatever it is worth, minorleaguesplits.com suggests he has been getting pretty unlucky with balls in play.

Hector Rondon: 4-0, 1.17 ERA, 2.37 FIP, 4.4 BB%, 24.4 K%, 47 GB%, +14 Net

By all accounts and by all measures Rondon has been sensational. Better competition, more strikeouts, fewer walks, more groundballs, better outcome. If he keeps this up for another month I expect he’ll get an early promotion to Columbus.

Others…
Jeanmar Gomez: 3-2, 3.62 FIP (A+/AA), just made his first start in Akron after getting called up, but has shown improved BB/K numbers so far this season. One to keep an eye on.
Josh Rodriguez: .314/.478/.353 – Valbuena makes it easy to forget Rodriguez exists. Exceptional patience covering up a lack of power so far. Also, 4 errors in the field.
Chuck Lofgren: 1-0, 3.69 FIP – Can 6 no-hit innings in his last outing and back to back great starts awaken long dormant hope?
Jose Constanza: .323/.400/.419, 10/1 SB/CS – this guy just hangs around as a mildly interesting speedy centerfielder…

Kinston (11-10, first place tie)

More great pitching, coupled with some nice performances by highly thought of 2008 draftees in Carolina…

Kelvin De La Cruz: 2-0, 1.50 ERA, 2.09 FIP, 4.4 BB%, 42.2 K%, 29 GB%, +12 Net

The tall lefty absolutely crushed the Kinston competition in his first two starts, getting 19 of his 36 outs via the K. Unfortunately he has been shelved since then, resting a sore arm. Fingers crossed.

Eric Berger: 2-1, 1.42 ERA, 2.20 FIP, 10.5 BB%, 34.2 K%, 44 GB%, +15 Net

Eric, who turned 23 last week, is picking up where he left off last season in his successful debut. His numbers are actually dragged down somewhat by a bad first start.

Zack Putnam: 2-0, 5.00 ERA, 2.23 FIP, 5.4 BB%, 25.7 K%, 56 GB%, +15 Net

Another 2008 draftee off to a great start (pay more attention to the FIP than the ERA). Putnam got hit with a linedrive in his last start, forcing him out after just 2 innings, but word is he should be fine going forward. A nice competition between Putnam and Berger to see who might get promoted to Akron first.

Cord Phelps: .306/.452/.444, 19.1 BB%, 14.9 K%, 9 XBHs, +11 Net

Tim Fedroff: .303/.422/.455, 16.9 BB%, 21.7 K%, 7 XBHs, +2 Net

Two more 2008 draftees continuing the early season trend of outstanding patience at the plate. For both of these, but especially Fedroff given his K-rate, it’d be nice to see a little more power.

Lonnie Chisenhall: .274/.344/.440, 8.6 BB%, 21.5 K%, 6 XBHs, -6 Net

Lonnie got some love from Baseball America after homering in 3 consecutive games earlier in April. Has cooled down a little since then, but the power and positive reviews of his defense at 3rd (although 4 errors) are nice to see. It’d be good to see him make a little better contact.

Others…

Matt McBride: .412/.468/.718 – yeah, yeah, yeah…
Dallas Cawiezell: 12.1IP, 3 BB, 15 K, 2.22 FIP
CC Lee: 14 IP, 6 BB, 17 K, 5.03 FIP

Lake County (8-12, 6th place)

As I mentioned in last week’s early weekend 6-pack, it’s another loaded pitching staff-very little offense club on Cleveland’s East Side this season.

Abner Abreu: .208/.240/.292, 2.7 BB%, 38.7 K%, 5 XBHs, -24 Net

It doesn’t really matter what kind of moon shots you hit in batting practice if you rack up 29 Ks and just 2 walks in your first 75 plate appearances.

Karexon Sanchez: .268/.342/.493, 8.8 BB%, 30.0 K%, 7 XBHs, -2 Net

Add in 8/0 SB/CS and Sanchez is another guy hanging around the peripheries of the interesting crowd. I’m admittedly biased, though, as I really hope to one day witness, for at least one inning of one game, an infield that includes Karexon Sanchez, Asdrubal Cabrera and Luis Valbuena – just for the scrabble points.

Joey Mahalic: 0-1, 1.00 ERA, 3.31 FIP, 8.8 BB%, 20.6 K%, 64 GB%, +7 Net

The 20-year old veteran of the Captains pitching staff, following in the organizational footsteps of Aaron Laffey (albeit about a year behind in terms of age). Might get promoted to Kinston soon.

Alexander Perez: 0-0, 1.99 ERA, 3.00 FIP, 8.0 BB%, 26.1 K%, 58 GB%, +11 Net

19-year old Dominican is off to a great start. The Latin American scouting department has been doing its job well.

TJ House: 1-1, 1.53 ERA, 3.76 FIP, 14.5 BB%, 21.1 K%, 51 GB%, +3 Net

Some control problems, but an encouraging debut from the 19-year old House.

Santo Frias: 1-0, 2.38 ERA, 2.20 FIP, 13.3 BB%, 40.0 K%, 53 GB%, +12 Net

One of my favorites going into last season (especially paired with Lord Kelvin) is coming back from missing most of last season with injury. Working out of the bullpen in the early season he has been fantastic. It’d be nice to see him either move back into the rotation at some point or up to Kinston.

Others…

Nate Recknagel: .327/.411/.449 – big 2008 U of M draftee will need to show more power given his defensive limitations
Jeremie Tice: .246/.342/.362 – 2008 college draftee…
TJ McFarland: 0-2, 7.13 ERA, 4.49 FIP – control and BABIP problems for this 19-year old

Rule 5 Draft: Who Do You Want?

Charlie — Sun, 23 Nov 2008 01:13:37 -0000

Here's the best rundown I've seen of the upcoming Rule 5 draft so far, and here's a long list of players teams protected. Based on what I've seen, the player I want, and a player I think Neal Huntington will give serious consideration if the player is available, is Rays reliever Eduardo Morlan.

Keep in mind that I'm no expert on most of these minor leaguers; I've seen clips of some of them and read up on all of them, but that's all. Also, I'm relying on USS Mariner's list and a couple other sources; I didn't go hunting for other Rule 5-eligible players I hadn't heard about elsewhere.

Obviously, what the Pirates need most is everyday players and starting pitchers. But everyday players are very difficult to take in the Rule 5 draft, because the best ones are nearly always protected and because in order to keep a Rule 5 pick, he has to stay on your 25-man roster the entire year (unless he gets hurt or fake-hurt, in which case you can stash him on the DL or in the minors for a while). It's very difficult to stash an unready player on your bench for an entire year, unless he's exceptionally versatile or nicely complements a player you already have. Of course it's possible a team would leave a very talented and nearly-ready position player unprotected but, Dave Littlefield aside, this rarely happens.

This year, the best position player available that I've seen is catcher James Skelton of the Tigers. He's worth considering because he's not old and he looks like he might become a plus hitter if he stays behind the plate, but his defense is apparently not very good, and he's pretty small, so his power may not come along. Also, he's a lefty, so he wouldn't really complement Ryan Doumit. First baseman Kala Ka'aihue of the Braves is another possibility--he showed great control of the strike zone as a 23-year-old at Class AA this year, but he probably doesn't hit for enough power, and it's hard to hide a first baseman for an entire year.

Pitchers are a different story, because a flawed pitcher might be able to have success in a major league bullpen. Starting pitchers can be good picks because you can stash them in your bullpen; this is what the Twins did with Johan Santana, for example.

The most interesting starting pitchers I've seen so far are Chuck Lofgren of the Indians and Donald Veal of the Cubs. They're both pretty rough--former top prospects who have flopped as they've moved up the chain. Lofgren had a disaster of a year at Class AA Akron. The Indians are having him relieve in the Arizona Fall League, and that has gone terribly, as he now has a 32.14 ERA there, with 18 walks against six strikeouts. I'd only want the Pirates to take him if their scouts spotted something they thought could be fixed, and even then I doubt it's worth it; Lofgren doesn't have blow-away stuff (though his curveball isn't bad) and may have succeeded at the lower levels in part because he was craftier than the hitters he was facing. Given his problems finding the strike zone this year, I don't think I'd want the Pirates to mess with him.

Veal, too, has control problems--his walks went from bad to worse as he repeated Class AA in 2008. Like Lofgren, he has struggled mightily as a reliever in the AFL. Also like Lofgren, his fastball is decent but not great, but he has a good curveball. One potential advantage is that Veal is apparently a pretty bright guy who might be able to make adjustments if placed in a big league bullpen, but his mechanics sound like they're a house of cards:

Well, number one was trusting my stuff. Some of my pitching coaches used to say, "Just trust your stuff and don't try to overdo 'cause you've got plenty. You don't need to do more than you're capable of."

And then number two is just slowing myself down. Sometimes I rush to the plate . . . if I get a couple of quick outs, I'll start rushing to get that last out real fast--getting ahead of myself. Then, once I start rushing, everything gets out of whack from the very beginning.

Again, if the Pirates' scouts see something about Veal they think can be fixed, great. But if not, I'd avoid him.

That leaves relievers, and of those, the one I like the best by far is Morlan. You may remember that the Rays acquired Morlan from the Twins in the Delmon Young / Matt Garza deal. He put up Playstation numbers in the low minors in 2006 and 2007, then held his own in Class AA this year. (And his numbers might have been even better if he hadn't struggled with shoulder issues early in the season; he was terrific down the stretch.) He's also been dynamite so far in Puerto Rico winter ball. He also has good enough stuff to be a valuable reliever, and he may be good enough to contribute right away. There's a decent chance he'd stick the entire year.