SB Nation - Jordan Brown

Top Prospects, part 2: The fringe position players

APV — Tue, 08 Dec 2009 02:29:51 -0000

Jason Donald would probably like to pretend 2009 didn't happen

I call these guys fringe guys because at the moment, their performance does not really warrant status as legitimate prospects. Some of them might be, some of them once were and might be again, but they all have substantive issues that cannot be ignored.

Jordan Brown (25.0, AAA): What can I say? Jordan Brown is defensively limited to positions that require substantive offensive performance. Offensively he lacks power and requires exceptional contact in order to be effective. 2009 was his best season and his numbers were certainly worth noticing, including a career high ISO of nearly .200 (which is a good barometer for decent power). But he also had a career low BB% (6.6) and saw his BB/K number drop for the second straight season. Jordan Brown is going to have to take advantage of whatever playing time he gets in 2010 and show that he can make above average, line-drive contact skills against major league pitching if he wants to have anything more than a journeyman major league career.

J. Brown	aOPS	BB/K	Net	ProS
2007	833	1.125	63	4.88
2008	746	0.522	5	4.43
2009	874	0.469	11	5.57

John Drennen (22.9, AA): Drennen had one of the more sizeable bounce back years for a position player in the Indians system. Once a promising young centerfield prospect with power, Drennen now looks to be more of a Jason Michaels/4^th OFer kind of candidate if he can carry through with his 2009 season. Being a potential above average corner outfielder defensively, together with having just turned 23, give Drennen a little more leeway to work through his offensive limitations (strike out prone). Drennen needs an excellent season in Akron, presumably with a successful promotion to Columbus at some point, to be worth paying too much attention to.

J. Drennen	aOPS	BB/K	Net	ProS
2007	739	0.510	-17	4.42
2008	722	0.630	-1	3.13
2009	821	0.478	0	5.38

Abner Abreu (19.7, low-A): Abreu is an exciting prospect. Or at least he could be if he didn’t have one of the worst contact skills in the system. There is no doubt he has a bat with huge power potential, serving as the 19-year old offensive core of the Lake County team for the first half of the 2009 season. But he had more than 6 times as many Ks as BBs, and only walked just a hair over 4% of the time. That raises serious concerns about his future development against better pitching. Plus he missed the last third of the season with a badly separated shoulder. Still under 20, I will be rooting hard for Abreu, but there are issues he needs to work through to be considered a serious prospect.

A. Abreu	aOPS	BB/K	Net	ProS
2009	771	0.309	-44	3.00

Adam Abraham (22.3, low-A):

Part of the triumvirate of Michigan 2008 draftees (with Putnam and Recknagel), Abraham had an interesting 2009. A corner infielder in college, the Indians began the process of converting him to catcher before last season. While he has a lot of work to be able to catch (), Abraham could have enough of a bat to be a major league backup catcher down the road.

A. Abraham	aOPS	BB/K	Net	ProS
2008	817	0.586	1	4.82
2009	817	0.610	4	4.82

Wes Hodges (24.8, AAA): Hodges came into 2009 coming off his best professional season and with the chance to earn consideration as the Indians 3B in 2010 if not late in 2009. Instead he dropped a big dud, losing plate control and power simultaneously. Making matters worse for Hodges is that he his defense at 3B has been unimpressive, he has a troubled injury history, and he is 25.

W. Hodges	aOPS	BB/K	Net	ProS
2007	805	0.489	-6	3.62
2008	817	0.495	-2	4.82
2009	745	0.323	-17	4.62

Trevor Crowe (25.6, MLB): Crowe’s playing status with Cleveland maybe should negate his consideration on this list. The problem with Crowe is that what we saw in Cleveland this season is pretty much the finished product. And it is not that great. I can think of several players I’d rather see occupying his roster spot.

T. Crowe	aOPS	BB/K	Net	ProS
2007	748	0.873	36	3.87
2008	825	0.583	15	5.15
2009	791	0.968	13	4.58

Tim Fedroff (22.4, high-A): Fedroff was fairly highly thought of when he was drafted in 2008 and has performed well for stretches since his pro career began, including a 35-game stretch this season in which he reached base safely every time out. Fedroff’s challenge is that he doesn’t hit for power (and his 61% GB-rate this season suggests he is going to have a hard time changing that) and he is a corner outfielder, meaning he really has to excel in every other part of his game to make up for that limited ceiling. So far he hasn’t shown enough extra stuff (defense, baserunning, plate discipline, contact ability) to make him interesting.

T. Fedroff	aOPS	BB/K	Net	ProS
2009	729	0.674	5	2.75

Jason Donald (24.8, MLB): Jason Donald should be a legit prospect. A year ago he definitely was. A season in which he suffered through nagging injuries and very poor performance, poor plate discipline, all at the age of 25 put him on the outside looking in with regards to prospect status. I think he is a good bet to rebound with improved health and likely will be a valuable guy. But he has to show it.

J. Donald	aOPS	BB/K	Net	ProS
2007	804	0.587	-3	4.10
2008	824	0.547	5	5.93
2009	647	0.275	-20	3.98

Beau Mills (22.9, AA): Last season I had him as a top-5 prospect for Cleveland. That’s how bad his 2009 was. Mills, now a firstbaseman (albeit an above average one apparently), has to be an above average offensive player to succeed. After showing good improvements in all aspects of his game in 2008 ad showing he could hit for power to all fields, I really though 2009 would be a breakout year and Mills would show the huge power people saw from him prior to the draft. Instead his power dropped, his contact dropped, his plate discipline dropped and as a result his status as a prospect dropped. Again, these categories are performance based, not status based. I’m sure Mills is still, probably rightfully, viewed as a solid prospect by most. But his performance last season does not justify that view. He is still young enough to think this was one bad season in what can still be a great developmental story. But 2010 is a big year for Beau Mills. That big hole at first base this season could have been his.

B. Mills	aOPS	BB/K	Net	ProS
2008	927	0.514	3	5.55
2009	763	0.326	-19	3.82

Next up: Fringe pitchers

Minor Improvements: Offense

APV — Sat, 24 Oct 2009 20:00:20 -0000

More photos » by Paul Battaglia - AP

Michael Brantley should not spend much time riding the bench in 2010

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What is impressive about two of the Indians most improved seasons by minor league offensive players is that they were already top prospects. Amazingly, Carlos Santana might have had the most improved season of any Indians minor leaguer, despite coming off a sensational 2008 season.

Carlos Santana, in case you forgot, put up a .326/.431/.568 last season, spending most of his time in high-A Inland Empire and then Kinston. That included 21 HRs, 65 total XBHs, and more walks (89) than Ks (85). This year he advanced to AA and spent the entire season as the constant rock in the middle of the Aeros potent lineup. Any adjustment time Santana needed to AA talent was minimal, as he put up a .290/.413/.530 line with 55 XBHs (23 HRs) and even more walks (90) than Ks (83). Part of what made his 2009 so impressive however was that there was good reason to suspect some regression in his numbers coming into the season. His 2008 was built on the back of a +.370 BABIP. What he did this year he did with a totally reasonably .314 BABIP...no getting lucky argument for 2009, it was just the real thing.

BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	aOPS
.290	.413	.530	.943	1.028
BB%	K%	HR	Net	PS
16.8	15.5	23	+60	10.9

Michael Brantley, like Santana, was a top prospect coming into the season. As a member of the Brewers AA Huntsville team Brantley put up a .319/.395/.398 line with a phenomenal 5.6% K-rate. Again - Brantley's baseline may not jump out as much improved. In fact, in a lot of ways, it does not look improved at all. This year in Buffalo he put up a .267/.350/.361 line (before hitting .313/358/.348 for a month in Cleveland). Aside from advancing to AAA, where's the improvement? Again the answer lies deeper in his numbers. Michael Brantley had an underwhelming .288 BABIP this season despite putting up line drive rates well over 20% essentially every month - just as we saw in September, Brantley is a line drive machine. Corrected for this, Brantley's adjusted OPS for 2009 was actually .821, up from .767 in 2008. And despite being hobbled early in the season with a hamstring issue he stole 46 bases in 51 attempts. Now if only we could say with certainty he was a great defender (or even a good one)...

BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	aOPS
.267	.350	.361	.711	.821
BB%	K%	HR	Net	PS
11.2	9.1	6	+76	9.1

John Drennen is not a top prospect. There was a time (after the 2006 season) when Drennen was a good looking young prospect, and not just because he managed to take Roger Clemens deep in a minor league game. Then came a disappointing 2007, and then a truly terrible 2008 despite repeating Kinston. Starting in Kinston for a third straight time seemed to light a fire in Drennen, as he began the season hitting .270/.395/.397 in the season's first month. The improved plate discipline was a particular surprise. Following his promotion to Akron his plate discipline regressed, but his power spiked to a career high (36 XBHs, including 8 HRs, in 354 plate appearances). Drennen's final cumulative line, .273/.333/.441 is not going to earn him a ticket to Cleveland, but given that he just turned 23 in the season's final month, it does put him back in the picture somewhat.

BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	aOPS
.273	.333	.441	.792	.821
BB%	K%	HR	Net	PS
7.7	16.0	8	0	5.4

Other offensive players who showed solid improvements from 2008 to 2009: Matt LaPorta, Jordan Brown, Donnie Webb, Lonnie Chisenhall, Matt McBride and Nick Weglarz. Pitchers will come later in the week.

UPDATE: A couple other players probably deserve a slightly longer shout-out...

It was in many ways a good year for Andy Marte. Certainly his best season since his final season with the Braves organization in 2004 at AAA Richmond. Between Columbus and Cleveland Marte put up 24 HRs and 30 2Bs. Marte seems have morphed into contact/BABIP driven offensive player, perhaps reflective of his strong pull tendencies. To be worth anything with that kind of approach he needs to show considerable power, and this season was pretty much his best power display as a pro player.

This year was also Jordan Brown's best season as a pro. Brown has followed a similar trajectory of plate discipline regression/power increase that Marte has. Unfortunately for Brown the power isn't really quite as good (.196 ISOP to Marte's .266 in AAA) and the defensive is more of a limiting circumstance. The MLE (from minorleaugesplits.com) line from Brown's season is .301/.339/.464.

Finally, Nick Weglarz rebounded pretty nicely from a disappointing 2008 season interrupted by injuries and the olympics. Weglarz baseline numbers, .227/.377/.431, are considerable deflated by a .253 BABIP (his previous career low was .311 in his rookie campaign at Burlington). His power jumped back towards his 2007 figures, which were solid, if not yet into the light-tower territory people expect from him. His BB-rate reached a career high of over 17.5% while his K-rate remained pretty stable at 18.3%. Amazingly he'll still just be 22 next year, perfect time I hope for a huge season and preparation for a 2011 rookie presence in Cleveland.

Fire Everyone! - The Farm System

APV — Thu, 24 Sep 2009 21:28:49 -0000

More photos » by Ross D. Franklin - AP

Travis Hafner, soliciting coaching advice from outside the organization

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This is the eighth installment in a 12-part series.

Part of the Tribe's failure this year can be blamed on the reality that when players were failing to perform in April and May (and there were many), no one was there in Akron or Columbus to step up and provide at least temporary relief. When Fausto Carmona was busy allowing 4+ runs in 10 of his first 12 starts, who was there to step up? Sure, David Huff was there to step in and promptly allow 13 earned runs in his first 6 innings of pro ball, but who was there behind him? And behind that guy? And when the bullpen was busy reading up on seppuku rather than "how to record a major league out" for the first two months, was there really no one better than Matt Herges and Greg Aquino available to fill the holes? Mark Shapiro has said nothing more frequently than the need for depth - the need to prepare for individual failures (which are inevitable) and insure against collective failures. So where was the depth when it was needed to keep the season alive?

One explanation is that it was a failure to acquire the right talent. This is a well hashed argument, and one which might have some validity. There is another possibility, however, that perhaps it is not that we have failed to acquire the right talent, but instead failed to develop the talent we have properly. Perhaps our developmental system, again one of Shapiro's trademarks on the organization has failed. Shapiro has been lauded for installing a system based on combining traditional scouting data with rigorous quantitative assessment and emphasizing consistency throughout the system. Players are supposed to enter into the organization and hear the same things at every level. Maybe some have been hearing the wrong things.

Trying to assess how good a developmental staff the Indians have is probably going to be a failed effort on my part. To really do it right, you would have to compare how the Indians fare relative to other organizations. The best hitters get out 60% of the time. Their greatness is only visible when assessed against everyone else, who get out 69% of the time. The success rate for prospects is much lower than either of the numbers. I don't have time for a thorough comparative analysis, sadly. But we can look internally at what the Tribe has done.

I consider the goal of the developmental staff to accomplish two things:

A good system should help players achieve the potential they were viewed to have when they were drafted/signed (with obvious injury caveats).
A great system should strive to raise the ceiling of their players, and strive to turn them into better players than other teams thought they could be.

How do they do this - I have no idea. But I would like to think they identify weaknesses in a player's game and seek to improve on them. Have the Indians done that? Here are some significant minor leaguers, either assessed by performance, draft or reputation, and how they've progressed (or regressed) while in the Indians system.

2003

Michael Aubrey - Injuries make his development impossible to assess

Brad Snyder - I think Snyder's failures are viewed as a contact problem. I think it is more that he didn't hit for enough power given his high strikeout rate. Here are his K/BB rates from A+, to AA, and two years in Buffalo - 2.5, 2.5, 3, +4...that's not good.

Adam Miller - see Michael Aubrey

Javi Herrera - college defensive catcher (and 3rd round pick), never learned to hit at AA

Ryan Garko - Seems like a success story. He's never developed a lot of power, but aside from his senior year at Stanford he never had a lot of power.

Juan Valdes - Injuries (too much coffee, no doubt)

Kevin Kouzmanoff - Kouz is a developmental success for Cleveland, a guy who raised his ceiling to the point of being trade worthy for future superstar Josh Barfield

Aaron Laffey - Big developmental success. While he's always gotten groundballs in bunches, his improving K-numbers throughout his minor league career attest to his improved secondary stuff, particularly his slider.

2004

Jeremy Sowers - I think it is hard to argue Sowers as a developmental failure. He has consistently dominated the minors. The translation to the big league level is not something I feel justified in blaming the minor league staff entirely for. An argument could be made that more of an effort should have been extended to improve his fastball velocity, but that is tough without incurring all sorts of other mechanical issues.

Justin Hoyman - never got started

Scott Lewis - I think a success story from a developmental perspective. Always did well, but was always described as likely having trouble at the next level. He kept doing well at the next level, up until his injury derailment in the majors.

Chuck Lofgren - Hard to know exactly what has happened or who is to blame for Lofgren, but losing the ability to throw strikes is something I'm happy to assign partial blame to the staff.

Mike Butia - Bad pick

Chris Gimenez - The Tribe turned this 19th round pick into a guy who can play multiple positions including catcher. He's not great, but that's not a bad job for a guy not many people probably thought much of.

Carlton Smith - Another guy who the Indians are trying to turn into something useful. They've managed to take his naturally sinking stuff and turn him into an extreme groundballer out of the pen in Akron this year. I say small victory.

Wyatt Toregas - selected in the 24th round, Wyatt's performance has been up and down, but at various points they've managed to get his plate discipline and/or power up to levels that made his appearance on the big league team this year not surprising. Success.

Tony Sipp - he was a late round flyer who I think we're all glad signed. A success obviously, but it is a little troubling that Sipp's control never showed any improvement.

2005

Trevor Crowe - After looking like he was nothing in 2007 in Akron, he did rebound more towards a reasonably projection given his college performance. Not worth a first round pick, but not the developmental staff's fault.

John Drennen - Haven't been able to put together a solid approach at the plate for Drennen. It's either mediocre power with huge K-rates, or zero power with mediocre plate discipline.

Stephen Head - they really should have worked on his mustache more, or tried to put together a coherent set of skills

Nick Weglarz - projectable big guy from Ontario with limited baseball experience turned into a top prospect...Yes!

Jensen Lewis - Again, from the minor league side of things, this looks like a success

Jordan Brown - Following his 2007 season in Akron, it looked like all he needed to do was add a little power and he'd be a good guy at the plate. Instead he fell apart, losing power, discipline and contact skills. He has rebounded a lot this year, but hasn't recovered his discipline at the plate and given his defensive liabilities, isn't viewed as part of the future. In terms of development, I think Brown is probably a draw.

Kevin Dixon, Joe Ness, James Deters - These three consecutive picks from 2005 all reached Akron and promptly had their careers end, I think we can assign a little failure.

Ryan Edell - Edell, the next pick in that draft, actually made it past Akron this year. Edell is not anything special, but he has followed an advance and struggle, then come back and improve trajectory to the point where he is a depth rotation option for next season. I say success from the development perspective.

Roman Pena - Toolsy, but failed to learn how to not strike out

Neil Wagner - Once viewed as a relief prospect sleeper, Wagner's control has gotten worse as he has moved through the system

2006

David Huff - similar story to Jeremy Sowers. He really looked like he was ready in 2008, but in 2009 his stuff has been lacking. I have a hard time saying this is a failure of the minor league development staff, though.

Steven Wright - he's not a guy we talk much about, but he has slowly and steadily progressed through the system and will likely be a major part of the Columbus bullpen next year. Not a glowing victory, but not a developmental failure.

Josh Rodriguez - Rodriguez has dealt with some injuries, but this seems like a failure. He was highly thought of and got off to a nice pro start in 2007.

Wes Hodges - Again injuries have played a role, but Hodges' power and discipline have deteriorated at each level to the point where now he is a deserved after thought.

Matt McBride - Here I largely question the developmental choices the organization has made. McBride was at catcher, but got moved to corner outfield. He had enough of a projectable bat to be a major league catcher, but it would have and will take a minor miracle to make him a serviceable outfielder. I say development fail.

Adam Davis - He got worse each of his final two seasons at Florida, so I don't blame Cleveland for him not being any good, just for drafting him.

Ryan Morris - A big high-school lefty who the Indians have been unable to teach how to throw strikes

Jared Goedert - Apart from a now legendary 46 game stretch in Lake County, he is 9th round organizational fodder

Paolo Espino - Espino has been moved back and forth from rotation to bullpen, but his improved control this season was a positive step forward for him. I say one for the plus column.

Josh Tomlin - a 19th round pick, Tomlin has been steady in his performance across levels, last season as a stalwart in Akron's pitching staff, to the point of being an interesting guy. Development win.

Vinnie Pestano - Enough marginal improvement in his BB-rate to call this a minor victory.

Chris Nash - Big and raw high school firstbaseman, the Indians have never been able to translate his strength into power or any kind of plate performance. Fail.

Ryan Miller - late round flier who showed signs of life for Lake County in 2008, totally blew up in 2009.

Others

Jon Meloan - not drafted, but clearly a developmental failure. Were never able to right his once promising ship.

Asdrubal Cabrera - huge victory. Cabrera was a hugely underrated guy when we acquired him, but he has been able to translate that potential into actual performance.

Fausto Carmona - huge victory....turned huge failure? But this also involves the major league staff.

Frank Herrmann - Transition to bullpen was successful this season and might prove to be a very smart developmental move. That said, he didn't actually improve any of his numbers in the process.

Hector Rondon - Definitely looks like a victory in progress, has been getting better as he has advanced (at least until the final month of this season).

Rafael Perez - Another victory in terms of his minor league performance. Was a borderline starter turned into a momentarily great reliever.

Jeanmar Gomez - Another seeming victory in progress. His stuff has become more effective as he has moved through the system.

Josh Judy - 34th round 2007 pick, his numbers have also shown steady progress. Could warrant a bullpen look in 2010.

Carlos Rivero - was looking good, but had a definite set back this season in his AA debut

Summary

There are lots of guys I have no doubt missed, and I have intentionally left most of the guys acquired from 2007-present out, because for most of them development is still a work in progress. Generally, I think the Indians developmental system has been adequate, if not extraordinary. We have had pitching successes (Aaron Laffey) and failures (Jon Meloan), hitting successes (Asdrubal Cabrera) and failures (Brad Snyder), college successes (Ryan Garko) and college failures (Wes Hodges), high school successes (Nick Weglarz) and high school failures (Chuck Lofgren). Again, a real study would try to assess this quantitatively and comaratively, but I don't have time for that.

I will say the Indians success with pitchers have seemingly been with developing downward movement on their fastball and/or the development of a slider in particular as an effective secondary pitch. There aren't a ton of changeup success stories in the system, or guys who have developed great power fastballs.

At the plate, it is my sense that certain players who have struggled have gone back and forth between trying to achieve their power potential, while also maintaining a reasonable plate approach. Beau Mills seems to be a case of this in progress, where last season he was showing some signs of actually improving in both areas (following a half-season debut with good power and bad discipline), only to come crashing down in many ways this season. I always find it disappointing when guys who showed plus defensive skills, like Brad Snyder, could not ever quite work it out at the plate enough to get a shot at the major league level. Fire everyone! - mabe. But I'd probably rather see an easing of the constraints on the system. Not an abandonment of the over-arching organizational philosophy on player development, but an openness to the reality that Cleveland is not the greatest organization on the planet and does not have all of the answers.

Just about any individual performance success story or failure can be viewed either as a result of the player's contribution or that of the coaches - so it is impossible to really get at the latter. Only systematic problems give reasonable evidence of organizational failings in this regard. By and large I don't think the Indians system has those. I question sometimes whether the one size fits all approach to development and advancement works for everyone, but some of the player development decisions made this year (Abner Abreu, Lonnie Chisenhall, Zach Putnam) suggest a more flexible approach on behalf of the front office. The bottom line is that I think the Indians do a good job of getting players to perform to the level that is expected of them. There are not that many examples of guys turning into something more than was ever thought possible, but I would guess these are rare in every organization. There are also not a lot of total failures which don't have some major injury component to them. Fire everyone! - maybe. But I'd probably rather just see more humility in the current organizational philosophy towards development. The Indians are not the greatest organization on the planet and do not know the answers to every (or these days any) question. Allowing a little flexibility and opening the channels of communication regarding development up to a few more smart voices might not be a bad idea.

Minor League Overview: The Hitters

APV — Sat, 01 Aug 2009 14:25:31 -0000

More photos » by Charles Dharapak - AP

New Indians catcher, Lou Marson, wondering how Carlos Santana likes his coffee

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Following up on yesterday's look at the pitchers, here is an overview of how the hitters in the Indians system have fared this year. A few breakouts, a few disappointments, but mostly it has been a steady as she goes season so far...

Progress Score Leaders

Carlos Santana: 10.6
Michael Brantley: 8.8
Nick Weglarz: 8.1
Lou Marson: 7.7
Andy Marte: 7.6
Matt LaPorta: 7.4
Lonnie Chisenhall: 6.9
Carlos Rivero: 6.2
Wyatt Toregas: 5.6
John Drennen/Abner Abreu: 5.2

A few surprises, no? First, Carlos Santana, as will become apparent throughout this overview, is in a class by himself. He almost makes you wish we could have signed Casey Blake in the off-season just to trade him back to LA this year. The surprises on this list are because of two things: progress score builds into it a substantial positional component (hence all the catchers, middle infielders and guys who can manage CF), and it works off of OPS adjusted for luck and park effects. Michael Brantley and Carlos Rivero, for example, have both been pretty unlucky on balls in play according to minorleaguesplits.com. In Rivero's case, though, this seems to be a chronic condition and something which would be nice to see reversed at some point. John Drennen has quietly had a solid season. And Marson was clearly just a throw-in from Philly (Jason Donald's 2008 numbers would be good for a 6.3, also).

NET Leaders

Michael Brantley: 54
Carlos Santana: 44
Nick Weglarz: 36
Cord Phelps: 25
Matt McBride: 23
Jose Constanza: 21
Andy Marte: 18
Chris Arnal: 18
Matt LaPorta: 16
Jared Goedert: 14

NET puts a premium on control of the strike zone and speed, so seeing Brantley and Santana on the top of the list (again) shouldn't be surprising. It is somewhat surprising, and a good thing, to see Marte and LaPorta on the list. If we look at last year's numbers for our top prospects, it is striking how the guys NET likes have generally done quite well this season (Santana, Brantley, Wegz, Valbuena, Chisenhall, LaPorta), and the guys NET didn't like (Rivero, Hodges, Mills) have struggled.

Lots more...

OPS Leaders

Andy Marte: 963
Carlos Santana: 935
Jordan Brown: 910
Matt LaPorta: 901
Matt McBride: 857
Nick Weglarz: 855
Abner Abreu: 839
Lonnie Chisenhall: 835
Jared Head: 809
Nate Recknagel: 808

It is nice to see a few of our young guys who were placed somewhat aggressively by the organization, Abreu and Chisenhall, rise the occasion. Compare this list with the adjusted OPS leaders (using minorleaguesplits.com algorithm for luck and park effects).

adjusted OPS Leaders

Carlos Santana: 1039
Andy Marte: 985
Matt LaPorta: 955
Nick Weglarz: 944
Nate Recknagel: 939
Jordan Brown: 881
Lonnie Chisenhall: 880
Matt McBride: 862
Chris Gimenez: 839
Adam Abraham: 821

The top of this list is pretty nice. You might be wondering who Recknagel and Abraham are. They are former teammates from the University of Michigan, both 2008 draftees, and both too old to get excited about while playing in Lake County (Abraham is being converted into a catcher, so he has some excuse, but Recknagel is a no defense all offense guy).

OBP Leaders

Trevor Crowe: 401
Carlos Santana: 398
Nick Weglarz: 389
Lou Marson: 384
Cord Phelps: 380
Matt LaPorta: 378
Jordan Brown: 377
Jose Constanza: 370
Andy Marte: 369
Mickey Hall: 366

So this is what Trevor Crowe is supposed to do...To weed out the guys who are getting buy on high batting average, here are the walk-rate leaders.

BB/PA (%) Leaders

Mickey Hall: 18.7
Nick Weglarz: 17.4
Cord Phelps: 16.4
Carlos Santana: 16.4
Tim Fedroff: 14.3
Trevor Crowe: 14.3
Karexon Sanchez: 13.2
Matt Brown: 12.7
Lou Marson: 12.7
Jose Constanza/Lucas Montero: 11.4

This list has a bunch of guys who are probably old for their level and finding success at the top of the order. It is nice to see 2008 draftees Phelps and Fedroff doing something well, though. I was surprised to see Karexon Sanchez on this list, only because I think of him more as a massive strikeout guy (25.6%) than a plate discipline guy.

K/PA (%) Leaders

Bo Greenwell: 8.1
Chris Arnal: 8.9
Michael Brantley: 9.5
Matt McBride: 11.3
Niuman Romero: 11.8
Jared Goedert: 11.9
Carlos Rivero: 12.8
Jose Constanza: 13.1
Jordan Brown: 13.6
Adam Abraham: 14.3

For Brantley, this is actually a major regression from his out of this world number last year (5.7%). Of course, after getting off to a rough start this season Brantley's numbers have been slowly coming back. In July he struck out in just 3.1% of his plate appearances (3 times in 97 trips to the plate). And to complete the plate discipline section, the following guys all have more walks than strikeouts: Brantley (1.15 BB:K), Phelps (1.11), Greenwell (1.09), Santana (1.09), Weglarz (1.03) and Arnal (1.00).

SLG% Leaders

Andy Marte: 593
Carlos Santana: 537
Jordan Brown: 532
Matt LaPorta: 523
Matt McBride: 508
Abner Abreu: 488
Lonnie Chisenhall: 487
Nick Weglarz: 466
Nate Recknagel: 466
Jared Head: 444

And for those who prefer to removing the batting average component...

ISO (SLG-BA) Leaders

Andy Marte: 266
Carlos Santana: 257
Matt LaPorta: 226
Nick Weglarz: 223
Lonnie Chisenhall: 210
Matt McBride: 208
Jordan Brown: 199
Chris Gimenez: 199
Nate Recknagel: 196
Abner Abreu: 183

Andy Marte really wasn't fooling around in July (.487 ISO) and because of that, is at the top of these lists. Lonnie Chisehall's appearance here is evidence of his very successful season at the plate so far and a good sign for a player of his age. This list does make you wish the Indians drafted guys with power, though, doesn't it...And, because repeating this phrase brings a sense of calm to me: Carlos Santana.

HR Leaders

Carlos Santana: 19
Andy Marte: 18
Lonnie Chisenhall: 16
Nick Weglarz: 15
Matt McBride: 14
Nate Recknagel: 13
Matt LaPorta: 13
Jordan Brown: 12
Beau Mills: 10
Karexon Sanchez: 8

An old fashioned HR-leaderboard finally gives us a peak at Beau Mills and his disappointing 2009. I really thought this was going to be a breakout year for him after consolidating some of his skills at the plate last year...not so much. He has been slowly getting better month by month, but not nearly what was expected of him. No positional player has had as rough a year as Mills, who probably would have a hard time cracking a top-15 list of Indians prospects were you to put one together today.

XBH Leaders

Matt McBride: 47
Andy Marte: 43
Jordan Brown: 43
Carlos Santana: 41
Lonnie Chisenhall: 41
Matt LaPorta: 36
Nate Recknagel: 35
Nick Weglarz: 34
Beau Mills: 34
John Drennen: 32

Chicks might dig the long balls, but doubles and triples are nice, too.

Net SB Leaders

Michael Brantley: 27
Jose Constanza: 13
Lucas Montero: 10
Chris Arnal: 8
Karexon Sanchez/Jason Donald: 7

This is SB-2*CS, to account for the detrimental effect of getting caught stealing. I keep this to a top 5 (6) because while the Indians have a lot of guys who steal bases in the minors, most of them aren't doing a very good job of it. Cord Phelps is fast (apparently), but actually manages a -10 because he gets caught so much. Even Constanza and Montero get caught more than they should. Michael Brantley seems to know what he is doing on the basepaths, though.

The Movers

Going up...

Lonnie Chisenhall has done a lot to quiet his skeptics. The move off of SS lowers his positional value, and it will be nice if his improvements at third continue, but the emergence of his power this season is a great sign. His secondary components have room for improvement, but neither his walk-rate or K-rate are in the red flag territory.

Andy Marte has given himself the chance at a second life with Cleveland (maybe). He's been pretty solid all season, but his numbers are buoyed considerably by his torrid July. It'll be interesting to see if major league pitchers still exploit him at the plate.

Abner Abreu was having a great full season debut until he separated his shoulder. He has worrying plate discipline issues (one of the reasons it would have been nice to get him another 200 plate appearances this year), but he also has real power.

Michael Brantley has had a phantom good year. The constant glowing reports from the Indians coaching staff about Brantley seemed to be counter to his somewhat pedestrian offensive numbers...but perhaps the Indians coaching staff knows something. Brantley's numbers suggest he's been driving the ball hard, but right at people a lot of the time.

Carlos Santana is without any debate the Indians top prospect right now.

Going down...

Beau Mills, as I said above, has not had a good season. He isn't old, but given his defensive limitations, he really needs to hope for a big turnaround season next year (and now might be a good time to start).

We spent a fair amount of money to sign Tim Fedroff and so far, the return hasn't been great. He's good at drawing walks, but for a guy with very little power he strikes out way too much (20.8%).

Looking more closely at his numbers, Carlos Rivero hasn't had as bad of a year as I thought. His plate discipline numbers are still good, he's still playing at short, but he's developing a bad habit of under-performing his stats. According to the minorleaguesplits.com numbers, Rivero has gotten unlucky every season of his career at the plate. It makes me wonder if there isn't something systemic in the way Rivero puts balls in play that the site is adjusting incorrectly for. Also, given his size, it'd be nice to see more power from him.

Final Thought

It is clear to see why the Indians have begun focusing on 2011. It is possible that by then Matt LaPorta, Carlos Santana, Michael Brantley and Nick Weglarz will all be regulars in Cleveland. These are all potential impact guys. Behind them are a few younger guys who are interesting, but also a lot of guys who represent decent organizational depth guys. I wouldn't be surprised to see the Indians lose a few guys in the Rule 5 over the next few years who stick and have some success elsewhere.

Early Weekend 6-Pack (7/2/09)

APV — Thu, 02 Jul 2009 07:19:57 -0000

It is a holiday weekend and I am still living quite a few hours in the future, so this week's edition of Early Weekend 6-Pack will be very early (with appropriately chosen beverage below).

1. Eric Wedge is in Hall of Fame company

In 2007, Eric Wedge coached the Indians to an impressive .593 winning percentage. Going into Thursday night’s game, the 2009 Indians are winning games at a less impressive .388 clip. If that .200+ drop-off in win% in a 2-year span seems impressive, that’s because it is. I looked at managerial records over the past 50 seasons, and it turns out this feat has only been equaled once. This is obviously a difficult list to get on, because as that gap might suggest, you have to go from coaching a very good team (~.600) to a very bad team (<.400) in a short amount of time. Given roster sizes and player movement restrictions, even in the era of free agency there tends to be a lot of continuity on a roster from one year to the next, so such a rapid change doesn’t often overcome the forces of inertia. Quite a few managers have come close. Dusty Baker did it in three years between 1993 (.636) and 1996 (.429) with the Giants. Phil Garner did it in three with the Astros, 2004 (.649) to 2007 (.443). Cito Gaston did it in three following the Jays last WS title in 1992. Tony LaRussa is good enough to have had such a drop over a 3-year time span twice, one with the White Sox in the mid-80s and again with Oakland in the early 90s. A few others got fired too early in the third season to count (i.e. Gene Lamont, Buddy Bell, Don Zimmer). But only one other coach has done it in 2-years, and that is HOFer Sparky Anderson, who saw the Tigers go from a .605 team in 1987 to a .364 team by 1989. So Wedge is truly in the company of legends. Now there is one coach who has actually topped this, and accomplished the task in just a single season. I probably don’t need to remind you, but Jim Leyland coached the 1997 Marlins to a .568 record and the eventual World Series title, only to come back in 1998 and coach the AA Marlins to a pathetic .333 record.

2. But maybe the best is yet to come...

The Indians have over the past two decades had a tendency to be a strong second-half team. Indeed, 2007 (.595) and 2008 (.588) are the 12th and 13th best back-half W% for the team since WWII. And 2005 (.622) is actually 7th on that list. As you go through the years, those ‘80s teams were generally awful, first half and second. The ‘70s teams were not great, but tended to have decent second halves. The ‘60s teams, which were better, were strikingly bad late season teams and had a few epic fades (e.g. 1965 - tied for 1st on the 4th of July, 14 games over .500, played below .500 the second half of the season and fell to 5th place). And the golden era teams, 1948-1954, were just awesome all around. Here’s the complete top 10:

	Year	Rec	W%		Year	Rec	W%
1	1954	55-16	.775	7	2005	46-28	.622
2	1995	54-23	.701	8	1953	44-27	.620
3	1952	51-28	.646	9	1955	43-27	.614
4	1996	47-27	.635	10t	2000	46-30	.605
5	1948	52-30	.634	10t	1950	46-30	.605
6	1951	49-29	.628

3. More Matt LaPorta please

Speaking of records – here is the team’s record when different individuals have appeared in the game. The "best" record goes to Matt LaPorta, who in his brief stint in Cleveland, helped the team to a near .500 (6-7) record. Way to go Matt! The worst record title is shared by Travis Hafner (10-24) and Josh Barfield (5-12).

Shoppach	18-29	Peralta	28-42	Crowe	13-17
Martinez	29-49	Choo	31-47	LaPorta	6-7
Cabrera	21-35	Hafner	10-24	Dellucci	5-9
DeRosa	29-42	Garko	24-36	Gimenez	5-7
Francisco	26-42	Carroll	13-24	Barfield	5-12
Sizemore	23-34	Valbuena	14-23

4. The defense rests

It’s only the half-way point, but at least according to UZR, the Indians defense is on pace to being 51 runs worse than last year, helping make Cleveland one of the most underperforming teams in baseball. According to the numbers, these are the four biggest culprits:

Ben Francisco -6.9
Luis Valbuena -6.1 (split between SS and 2B pretty evenly)
Shin Soo Choo -3.6
Mark DeRosa -3.1 (although about +3 in the outfield, -6 in the infield)

The Indians best defenders so far; Jamey Carroll (+3.8) and Jhonny Peralta (+2.9). Note: This is just one metric for measuring defense and half a season, and for many of these guys less than that, is generally not considered a large enough sample to be particularly reliable. I'd be interested how these numbers match up with people's perspectives...I haven't seen enough games live to say.

5. Can I get two Wegz with that LaPorta?

The Indians full-season minor league teams all have three full months in the books. Matt LaPorta had the team’s best month of April (1.103), while Nick Weglarz beat off some stiff competition from a number of players to claim the best May (1.055) and June (1.007). There are a number of other high performers, of course. Carlos Santana has been steadily good all season. Jordan Brown and Andy Marte both had big Mays. Abner Abreu screamed back from a terrible April with months of May and June not far behind Weglarz before separating his shoulder. Lonnie Chisenhall has been solid.

6. The future looks different when you get there

One of the things Baseball America does every year when it produces its organizational top 10 lists is put together a mock-up of what the team’s lineup might look like 3 years in the future. Here is what, in November 2006, they projected as the Indians 2010 lineup:

Catcher – Matt McBride SP #1 – CC Sabathia

First Base – Victor Martinez SP #2 – Adam Miller

Second Base – Josh Barfield SP #3 – Jeremy Sowers

Third Base – Andy Marte SP #4 – Cliff Lee

Shortstop – Jhonny Peralta SP #5 – Jake Westbrook

Left Field – Trevor Crowe Closer – Tony Sipp

Center Field – Grady Sizemore

Right Field – Shin Soo Choo

DH – Travis Hafner

Ahh...back when the Indians future was so clear. I actually think they did a pretty good job with this. They correctly predicted Victor’s transition to first base, while being surprisingly optimistic about Jhonny staying at SS. They got the easy ones of course, Grady in center and Hafner at DH, but also pegged Choo in RF. McBride as catcher was obviously a fail...why people love that guy is something I don’t entirely understand. Barfield did, coming off a ~~great~~ good rookie year in San Diego, seem like a reasonably safe call. Marte was still one of baseball’s top prospects. Crowe...see McBride. They may very well have 40-60% of the starting rotation correct. Adam Miller, more optimism. I’m not sure why they thought CC would both still be a #1 starter and still be with Cleveland.

It’s hard to pretend I don’t know what has happened since November 2006 and try to compare how good I thought this team would have been versus how good I think our projected 2010 team currently looks. It’s probably impossible to match my view of the above projected starting rotation (it is truly a dream world where Jake Westbrook is our #5 guy), but I think I like our offense better. Put LaPorta in for Crowe, Santana (at least by the end of 2010) in for McBride, shift Jhonny left and put Droobs and Valbuena up the middle...and I like that lineup a lot. The pitching, though...

via www.beerbeacon.com

Transactions: Spring Training Cuts

Ryan — Sun, 22 Mar 2009 06:15:17 -0000

From 3-15-09:

Reassigned RHP Tomo Ohka and LHP Ryan Edell to Minor League Camp

Although all Spring Training stats need to be treated with a high degree of skepticism, a pitcher fighting for a roster spot giving up 14 hits and 10 runs in 3.2 innings is a sign that he's not very good. That's what the Indians saw in Tomo Ohka.

Edell was a starter all of last year, but the Indians brought him to major-league camp to (I assume) take a look at him as a reliever. If he makes the Clippers as a reliever we'll know if they liked what they saw.

Optioned LHP Rich Rundles to Columbus (AAA)

Rundles looked like he had a decent chance of making the bullpen after making the 40-man roster late last season, but Eric Wedge saw some things he still had to work on:

''It's getting to the point where innings are tough to come by,'' Wedge said. ''Rundles needs to be very good against left-handers and be able to defend himself against right-handers. It's fairly new for him to be dropping down [throwing sidearm], and he has to get more consistent with that. So he has more development to do.''

With Rundles going down, it's very unlikely the Indians will be taking a situational lefty north with them.

From 3-19-09:

Reassigned the following to Minor League Camp:

1B: Jordan Brown, Beau Mills, Stephen Head

Brown and possibly Head will be playing in Columbus; Mills is headed to Akron. Mills is the prime prospect, Brown the sort-of prospect, and Head the not prospect.

RHP Jack Cassel

SS Jesus Merchan

3B Wes Hodges

A lot of things outside of Hodges' control has gone right for him. The Indians, instead of moving Jhonny Peralta to third, traded for Mark DeRosa, who is a free agent at the end of this season. And Andy Marte is for all intents and purposes not in the indians' future plans. That means Hodges now has the opportunity to play himself onto the 2010 roster. I still think it's more likely Peralta's playing at third next season, but if Hodges plays well, it will make the Indians' decision much more difficult.

Optioned the Following Players to Columbus (AAA):

2B Luis Valbuena

While Hodges is going to have to play his way into the Indians' future plans, Valbuena seems to be the default option at second in 2010. If the Indians do shift the infield around next season, his performance this season in Columbus will be the impetus for it.

LHP Tony Sipp

Sipp hasn't been able to stay healthy (tommy John in 2007, shoulder problems last season), but the only thing preventing him from pitching with the Indians this season is proof that he can handle a relievers' workload.

RHP John Meloan, Adam Miller, and Juan Salas

It was a given that Salas would be optioned to AAA as depth. Meloan washed out of the bullpen battle fairly quickly, but my expectations are still pretty high. Adam Miller looks like he'll undergo season-ending surgery on his right middle finger; the injury is possibly career-threatening. Miller's never pitched for the Indians, but it's a huge loss nonetheless. A healthy Miller in this year's bullpen would have given Eric Wedge a relief ace capable of filling in a multi-inning cap if a starter had to come out early, and eventually a late-inning setup man.

Optioned C Carlos Santana and Hector Rondon to Akron (AA)

Both players did nothing this spring to dampen the high expectations already placed on them. Santana is already an advanced hitter, but the Indians are fine at catcher and won't need to promote him agressively. Rondon, on the other hand, probably needs a full season in Akron.

[Update: Although not listed in the official transactions, the Indians also assigned LHP David Huff to Minor League camp.]