SB Nation - J.P. Arencibia

Wednesday Open Thread: the Aftermath

hugo — Wed, 16 Dec 2009 16:00:09 -0000

More photos » by Elise Amendola - AP

So long, Doc. You are one of a kind. (AP Photo/Elise Amendola)

Just wanted to check in with some links around the blogosphere about the Halladay trade and then open it up to y'all:

At Fangraphs, Dave Cameron takes a look at the trade (not the Wallace-Taylor part):

Let’s start with the Blue Jays. They were obviously over a barrel with Halladay after the debacle of trying to trade him this summer. New GM Alex Anthopolous knew he needed to move his ace for the best package he could get, but also come away with enough young talent to sell this as more than an admission that they screwed up in July. In the trio of young players they’re getting from the Phillies, they were able to do just that.

Drabek, Taylor, and D’Arnaud are high quality prospects. For one year of Halladay (and $6 million in cash, which isn’t trivial but less useful to a Toronto team that won’t win in 2010), that’s a very strong return. Anthopolous did well to come away with that level of talent, given his leverage in the situation.

Also at Fangraphs, Dave Allen takes a look at Roy Halladay's stuff. Yeah, he's good. Now, I don't get why Philadelphia felt like they had to deal Cliff Lee on the same day they acquired Doc, since it really wasn't a three team trade. I would've thought they could have done better holding on to him for the best possible return, considering that worst-case scenario is probably a year of Cliff Lee well below market value for a competing team, followed by Type A free agent status. That said, I don't get why Phillies fans aren't happier with the deal. You got Roy Halladay, guys. It's a win. And he signed a team-friendly extension, and you replenished your farm system a bit by dealing Lee.
The Hardball Times likes the deal for the Jays too, including the acquisition of Wallace for Taylor:

Toronto made out extremely well, netting a high-upside pitcher in Kyle Drabek that they don't have anywhere in the system. Toronto has solid rotation depth, especially in the major leagues, but no one you can give the ball to on Opening Day and expect to win. Drabek can be that guy.

Travis D'Arnaud has been coveted by Toronto ever since he was selected a pick ahead of the Jays in 2007. The Blue Jays have J.P. Arencibia in their farm system, but there are questions about his ability to stay behind the plate, and D'Arnaud is the better value anyways. Michael Taylor was a Blue Jay for only the briefest of moments, as he was immediately shipped to Oakland for Brett Wallace.

While Taylor might evolve into a 20/20 player and provide good overall value out of the outfield, Wallace is the type of hitter Toronto needs in its next wave of youngsters. Toronto absolutely needs the upside that Wallace brings with the bat and can afford to worry about defense later. Assuming Wallace can't stick at third (which is not a done deal just yet), he has the options of moving to first or designated hitter, with no one blocking him at either position.

Toronto has put themselves in great position to field a young, competitive club as soon as 2012. That's all they could have asked for in a trade of Halladay.

I have to admit, I wasn't crazy about moving Taylor for Wallace at first, as it seems like Wallace will have to move to first base and I was looking forward to a season of Taylor, not Jose Bautista, in right field for the Jays in 2010 (and beyond). But the more I think about it, the more I'm pleased that the Jays have decided to go with the best talent they can get - I think it shows confidence in evaluation and in the ability to deal one of their 1st basemen/DH types if it comes to it. Overbay is clearly on his way out, Cooper is a big question mark, I like Dopirak well, but Ruiz can't be thought of as any time of long-term plan.

The Drunks have a run-down of Keith Law's comments on the deal. Law doubts Drabek can be a true ace because of the lack of a great third pitch, but likes him as a number two or, at worst, a number three. He thinks Wallace will be a great hitter, albeit as a first-baseman. And he projects d'Arnaud as a solid everyday catcher. Sounds like a plan to me. \
Jordan Bastian mentions what seems inevitable, that Overbay is on his way out, at the latest after 2010, that Cooper's stock has fallen, and that the Jays are considering moving Wallace to third base. I don't see the harm in keeping Wallace at third base in AAA if he's not going to make the major-league roster, though, unless they want to try Scott Campbell everyday at third in Las Vegas again.

What say you, banterers?

Update: 1:30 pm. Apparently, someone failed a physical, potentially putting the deal in jeopardy depending on who it is. We've heard it wasn't Doc or Cliff Lee (can you imagine Doc failing a physical? I think the treadmill used for the stress test would fail first) or Phillipe Aumont, so who?

Update^2: 2:45 pm. Blair says the entire physical-failing rumor was completely false, and other sources are confirming that the deal is final and there will be a Doc press conference this afternoon. That was a weird hour.

Just Dropped in to See What Condition My Condition is In: Who Moves Up, Who Moves Down on our Prospect List

Tom Dakers — Thu, 12 Nov 2009 22:48:37 -0000

As a start towards re-doing our prospect list I thought we'd take a look at the guys on our current list and see which ones improved their status with the team and which ones likely dropped back or right off the prospect list. Then we can start looking at who should be on the new list.

I'll list the players in the spots they are at on our current list, which was put together about this time last year.

1.Travis Snider. Snider got 241 major league at bats, in which he hit .241/.331/.430, not great but not bad considering he was just 21, the 6^th youngest player in the AL. He also had 175 at bats at Triple-A Las Vegas hitting a terrific .337/.431/.663 there. Clearly he wasn't one of Cito's favourites, which puts him in a class with Shawn Green and Carlos Delgado, who have roughly 800 major league home runs between them, so not exactly bad company. If you consider Travis a prospect still, he didn't do much to hurt his status as our number one prospect, but I figure we will graduate him off the prospects list and consider him a major leaguer now. It is always possibly that Cito will decide he's not ready for the majors, this spring, and give his at bats to someone like Kevin Millar. Then, he'd be a prospect and a darn good one still, considering he'd just be 22 years old. But, please Cito, play him every day next year.

2. Brett Cecil. Cecil got 17 major league starts last season, going 7-4 with a 5.30 ERA. Not great, not terrible. He was just 22 years old, so still pretty young for a lefty starter. He pitched another 49 innings in Vegas going 1-5 there with a 5.69 ERA. He was moved to the majors before we likely would have liked him to be, with all the injuries we had to the starting staff. If you consider him a prospect still, he's still a good one, just 23 next year. He'd likely be moved down a few spots on our list, but we'll likely ‘graduate' him off the prospect list.

3. J.P. Arencibia. J.P. did not have the season we hoped he'd have. Promoted to Triple-A, he hit just .236/.284/.444 with 21 homers. I guess calling him a Rod Barajas type would be fair, nice power, low average, wouldn't take a walk if his life depended on it. He'll likely move down some on our list, but he's still a decent prospect. He'll be 24 next year so he can't afford another season like this one, but several good players need two years at Triple-A to find their way.

4. David Cooper. In just his second year of pro ball he was moved up to Double-A New Hampshire. It didn't go well, .258/.340/.389. I would think they will start him at Double-A again and hope he moves up quick. He is just 22 and just 2 years removed from college ball, so there is time to right the ship, but I'd expect he'll be dropped several spots down on our next list. Can't write off a guy at his age though.

5. Justin Jackson. Justin moved up to high-A Dunedin to start this year. It didn't go well, he hit .213/.321/.239 and he missed some time with a ‘frayed labrum'. He's still young, just 20 this past year and has good speed (17 steals), can take a walk (39 in 249 at bats) and his defence looks good. He has got the tools, just has to make it all work. We got to see him a few times in spring training and he didn't look out of place. All that said, he likely to move down a few spots on our list. I'm not sure that I don't think Tyler Pastornicky is a better prospect in the long run.

6. Kevin Ahrens. Continuing our list of prospects that disappointed this year, Kevin was moved up to high-A Dunedin for this season and forgot to bring his bat, hitting just .215/.282/.302. Again just 20 and knows how to take a walk but we really would have liked better from him. He'll likely drop several spots on the prospect list. Don't totally write him off at 20 but he's going to have to pick it up next year.

7. Scott Campbell. A personal favourite, he played in Dunedin, New Hamshire and Las Vegas this year and really didn't take a step forward, .272/.368/.356. He started slow then got injured when it looked like he was turning things around. Pretty much a lost year for him. The Jays tried him at 3B some this year, which I don't understand at all, he doesn't have the power for a corner infield spot. I'd give him a mulligan because of the injuries but he was 24 last season, so it is tough to see him as a prospect unless he does something terrific in spring training. Alex Anthopoulos obviously doesn't think too much of him since he's picked up a couple of middle infield types in the past few weeks off waivers: Mike McCoy and Jarrett Hoffpauir. Much as I like Campbell, I can't see him being on the next prospects list.

8. Brad Mills. Brad made a couple of starts for us back in June when virtually every other starting pitcher in our system was hurt. They didn't go well. He made 14 starts in Triple-A Vegas going just 2-8 but with a decent (for the Pacific Coast League) ERA of 4.06. He had a good strikeout to walk rate 35 walks to 72 strikeouts. He had a good spring training with us, he was in the running for a opening day rotation spot, right up until the end. He gives up more fly balls (and therefore homers) than you would like to see. And he will be 25 next season, not old for a lefty starter but time is running out. I think he'll move a few spots down on our prospect list but with luck and work could make the rotation.

9. Ricky Romero. He's graduated off the prospect list. I think I argued that he shouldn't be so high on our list last year. Shows what I know. He is 25 next year and I'd like to have the paychecks he has in his future.

10. John Tolisano. Like fellow 20 year olds Jackson and Ahrens, John played at Dunedin last year and did not do well, hitting .232/.305/.379. Like the other two, he knows how to take a walk and is young enough to overcome it. He did show some power (12 homers) and wasn't doing too bad before just a horrible August that hurt his numbers. That said, he's got good power for a 2B and is young enough to bounce back from this year, but he'll be moved back on our prospect list.

We'll look at the guys that were 11-20 on our list in the next couple of days and 21-30 soon after that. Then we'll take a look at ones that could jump on our next list.

September Call-Ups: Inglett, Wolfe, Hayhurst -- Or, Are the Jays Even Trying?

hugo — Tue, 01 Sep 2009 18:50:41 -0000

More photos » by Darren Calabrese - AP

Glad to see you back, Dirk, but couldn't you have brought more friends? (AP Photo/The Canadian Press, Darren Calabrese)

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Well, the Jays have apparently underwhelmed everyone by calling up three players: Joe Inglett, Brian Wolfe, and Dirk Hayhurst.

Now, I bow to no one in my Hayhurst man-crush and I am very happy to see him back on the Jays. But a team completely out of the playoff picture like the Jays should be using September callups as an opportunity to give players who progressed this season a taste of the big leagues, not just recalling AAAA types unlikely to be of more than marginal use to the team going forward.

Brian Dopirak was a perfect example of someone who the Jays should be calling up. Dopriak is 25 already, but his career has been held back by injuries as much as (more than, really) development problems. He torched double A this season to the tune of .308/.374/.576 with 19 home runs in and 29 doubles in 87 games. Then, after the all-star break, he similarly smashed up AAA with 21 extra base hits in 45 games and a .344 batting average. He's right at the age where you want to see your minor-league hitter getting a shot at the bigs, and he has certainly earned a promotion with a fantastic season. Perhaps craziest of all, the Jays have Kevin Millar in the lineup on an all-too-regular basis. And yet Dopirak doesn't get promoted.

How about Angel Sanchez? Yeah, it's the PCL but he's hit .305/.363/.428 and his arm has apparently healed enough from ligament replacement surgery for him to reclaim his place as a plus defender at shortstop. With Edwin Encarnacion still hurt, Marco Scutaro could move over to third base on days when Sanchez plays SS, thereby not hurting his stats for his impending free agency. With Scutaro set to leave unless the Jays pony up, shouldn't the Jays at least take a look at what they may have in Sanchez?

Fabio Castro or David Purcey? Neither has been fantastic, but both have had credible seasons considering how tough the PCL can be on pitchers. Purcey threw a complete game, no walk, 3-hit shutout his last time out on Sunday. I'd say the Jays could take another look at him, with two young pitchers set to sit out the rest of the season, instead of giving starts to Brian Tallet. Castro could get a look as well.

And what to say about Jeremy Accardo, who has 26 Ks and 7 walks in 29 innings for Las Vegas, with a 3.10 ERA and lots of groundouts. If they were going to recall someone, why not Accardo, and not Wolfe, considering Accardo has superior both major- and minor-league numbers this season and a much better chance of being a high-leverage reliever for a major-league team.

That doesn't even get into the marginal cases like J.P. Arencibia and Scott Campbell - neither of which has had a great season - but Arencibia has 19 home runs and 31 doubles and has improved his walk rate a little, and Campbell did post a .371 OBP between AA and AAA.

What do you all think? Who would you have called up?

John Sickels Updates On Blue Jays' Top 20 Prospects

hugo — Thu, 13 Aug 2009 15:13:13 -0000

Earlier this season, Minor League Ball's John Sickels took a look at the Jays' farm system and set forth a list of the Jays' top 20 prospects. Now, with just a few weeks left in the minor-league season, Sickels brings us an update on how each has progressed, giving us the good and bad news. He's still quite high on Travis Snider and Brett Cecil. Some other high/low points:

David Cooper, 1B, Grade B: Hitting .255/.333/.372 for Double-A New Hampshire. Very disappointing, no power, mediocre batting average and OBP, looks like I overrated him. BB/K ratio is decent, so he still has a chance to improve but needs to make progress quickly in '10.
J.P. Arencibia, C, Grade B-: Hitting .224/.272/.409 for Triple-A Las Vegas. Poor strike zone judgment is holding production back. Good with the glove but has needs big adjustments with the bat.
Ricky Romero, LHP, Grade C+: 10-5, 3.66 with 90/44 K/BB in 116 major league innings. One of the best rookie pitchers in baseball, somewhat surprising after a mediocre minor league career. The talent was always there, but he lacked consistency before.
Mark Rzepczynski, LHP, Grade C+: 2.86 ERA with 104/40 K/BB in 88 innings between Double-A and Triple-A, 4.38 ERA with 37/19 K/BB in 37 innings in the majors. Looks good so far.

Generally, things aren't looking great on the hitting side, though I do think Cooper seems to be improving and you have to give him credit for starting his first full professional season at AA, a tough test for any minor-league hitter. In addition, there are some hitters Sickels' didn't rank that have shown substantial improvement this season - Moises Sierra, Johermyn Chavez, Adam Loewen, and a couple of others. On the pitching side, the system itself looks a bit thin but only because Romero, Cecil, Ray, Mills, and Rzepczynski all made their major-league debuts this year. In particular the trio of Romeo, Cecil, and Rzepczynski look like an excellent threesome on the left-handed pitching side - but Rzepczynski has a lot more still to prove and Romero and Cecil have to avoid the dread injury bug as they start to shoulder big league workloads. Also, the system will get an infusion of pitching if the Jays can sign their 2009 draftees - Jenkins, Paxton, Eliopolous - which is much needed.

The truth is, the Jays system is really interesting in that it never gets very highly ranked by people who rank prospects systems, but it has been extremely consistent in developing major-league players for the Jays. It's not flashy, but it has been an effective source of cheap, quality major-league players. Halladay, Romero, Cecil, Rzepczynski, Hill, Lind, League, Wells (a week ago we could have added Rios to the list) - all are Jays draftees, and of course don't forget Marcum, Janssen, Litsch, and McGowan. Many other current Jays have spent significant development time in the Jays' minor-league system.

Of course, once the minor-league season rounds up, Bluebird Banter will take a look at the system's season in review and review and update our own top 30 prospects list. Lots of changes, I think we'll find.

Orioles 7, Jays 5

hugo — Sat, 08 Aug 2009 15:38:38 -0000

More photos » by Jim Ross - AP

Former Toronto Blue Jays player Joe Carter laughs as he is acknowledged by the crowd during a celebration of the Blue Jays World Series team from 1992 and 1993 at Rogers Centre before a baseball game between the Blue Jays and the Baltimore Orioles on Friday, Aug. 7, 2009. (AP Photo/The Canadian Press,Jim Ross)

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The Blue Jays finished in second place in yesterday's contest with the Orioles, not exactly reminding fans of the team's glorious past.

On the Mound: Ricky Romero ran into trouble in the 6th inning, giving up 4 runs and spoiling a start that had been solid to that point. Of course the inning started with a walk to Matt Wieters.

At the Plate: Vernon Wells and Alex Rios hit solo home runs in the first inning to stake Romero to a lead. Aaron Hill doubled in Joe Inglett (who has been hitting well recently) in the 5th but the Jays then had another golden opportunity with runners at 2nd and 3rd and 1 out. Adam Lind and Lyle Overbay failed to bring any of them in. Wells and Rios accounted for another 2 runs in the 8th with an RBI single and sacrifice fly, respectively.

From the Pen: Brandon League had problems in the 8th. He got the first batter on a groundout but then gave up a single through the middle. A wild pitch sent that runner to second. League then got three straight ground balls. Unfortunately, two of them went through the infield and the inning unraveled from there. League did bail out the Jays in the 7th by coming in to retire the final out after Jesse Carlson had left two runners on, so it was another situation where he ran into problems after the inning break. He's been very good recently, and other than the double he served up to Matt Wieters, didn't look all that bad yesterday, but it was an ugly result.

Vernon Wells earns Jay of the Day honours. Romero and League take home the Towers and Bautista, and Barajas earns himself a golden Hinske (or should the Jays of the Day awards be made from porcelein with cobalt glaze?)

AAA Watch: Travis Snider was 3-5 with a double. Brian Dopirak and J.P. Arencibia didn't do much, but Casey Janssen pitched another perfect relief inning, striking out 2. He seems rather sharp recently so I wonder how long it'll be before he replaces someone like Accardo, who looked pretty shaky yesterday.

Yankees 8, Jays 4

hugo — Thu, 06 Aug 2009 11:08:31 -0000

Tough one last night for our heroes.

On the Mound: Marc Rzepczynski pitched great until the 7th inning, when he ran into some trouble and was lifted. Things really unraveled, and Zep ended up with 4 runs allowed over his 6 innings, though he did strike out 7 and walk just one. He wasn't the problem.

At the Plate: Vernon Wells and Alex Rios had RBI singles in the 1st inning. Adam Lind and Marco Scutaro added solo home runs. We had our baserunners, but didn't cash them.

From the Pen: Bad showing from our relief corps last night. Josh Roenicke entered in relief of Zep in the 7th and gave up 3 walks and 2 hits. Jesse Carlson gave up another run in the 8th and Brian Tallet surrendered a Damon home run in the 9th. Yuck.

Cold Comfort from the Farm: Travis Snider had a double. J.P. Arencibia hit a home run, his 12th of the season. Casey Janssen pitched a perfect inning, striking out 1. Though David Purcey got absolutely shellacked.

Lind was the only one with JoTD numbers. The Jays are off today before taking on Baltimore this weekend.

2009 Trade Deadline Preview: Toronto Blue Jays

Matt Buggenhagen — Sun, 19 Jul 2009 15:41:55 -0000

More photos » by Darren Calabrese - AP

Roy Halladay starts for the Jays today against the Red Sox. Will this be his last start as a Blue Jay?

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Buyers or sellers?

The Blue Jays certainly haven't given any indication they are buyers, but tagging them with the term sellers might be a little too strong. We all know they have put ace Roy Halladay on the block, but unless they receive an enormous package in return there is still a high probability that Halladay will be a Blue Jay next year. However, for the sake of this discussion we'll go ahead and label them sellers.

Short-term need

First and foremost the Blue Jays have to get this Roy Halladay situation settled. Ultimately, dealing or not dealing Halladay should give us a clear indication what the Blue Jays are planning on doing in the future. Don't expect the Blue Jays to make any deals to upgrade their immediate roster, unless that involves dealing Halladay for major league ready players.

Long-term need

The Blue Jays have developed some good young players that will give them a promising future. Position players Aaron Hill, Alex Rios and Adam Lind should be the cornerstones of the Blue Jays offense for some time to come. Young pitchers Brett Cecil, Ricky Romero and Marc Rzepczynpski will be the foundation of the Jays future rotation. Roy Halladay doesn't figure to be in the Jays long-term plans regardless of whether he remains with the team past the July 31 deadline or not.

Ultimately, the Jays need to continue to develop talent in order to compete with the Yankees in the Red Sox. They clearly don't have the same deep pockets, so developing young stars will be their only chance to compete. In order for the Jays to do this they'll probably have to find a way out of some of their existing contracts, most notably center fielder Vernon Wells. Moving Halladay will net the Jays some good prospects who should help the team in the future, but finding a way to rid themselves of Wells could ultimately determine if the Jays have the financial flexibility to keep this team in tact. Wells is currently in the midst of a seven year $126 million deal that runs through 2014.

Big leaguers on the market?

Clearly you have to begin answering this question with Jays ace Roy Halladay. It's no surprise to anyone that Halladay is on the market. Halladay a lifelong Jay is all about winning now, and it doesn't appear the Jays can provide him with that situation. Halladay has spent his career watching the Yankees and Red Sox dominate the AL East, and he believes it's his time to compete for a championship. He appears to have a great relationship with GM J.P. Ricciardi, which leads me to believe Ricciardi will answer his wishes (while not screwing himself of course). Halladay has been linked to about every team under the sun, but the most notable contenders are the Phillies, Angels, Red Sox, Yankees, and Dodgers. The next group of contenders would probably be the White Sox, Rangers, and Brewers.

Others big leaguers on the market would have to start with Vernon Wells. Early reports were that the Jays were going to require any team interested in Halladay to take on Wells, but those reports appear to have disappeared. Wells is virtually untradeable, he's signed to a ridiculous contract, and frankly his production doesn't make him all that desirable. For more on his production read this great article from Sky Kalkman at Beyond The Box Score, it will blow your mind how useless Vernon Wells is. I had to steal this little quote from Sky because I find it hilarious.

Sky's Tip of the Day: If you're a major league baseball general manager and anyone from the Blue Jays front office calls you up and even mentions the name Vernon Wells, immediately hang up, unplug your phone, announce a code Dunn over the PA, and organize the entire building's retreat into the sub-basement biodome where you won't come out until after 2014. (Don't forget the Twinkies.)

Moving along. Expect the Jays to also consider dealing third baseman Scott Rolen, who's having a bit of a revival year (.322/6/35). However, Rolen may be tough to deal figuring he is 34, and is owed $11.8 million for 2009 and 2010. Rumors were the Red Sox might be interested in Rolen, but that was when the team was uncertain about the status of third baseman Mike Lowell. I'm sure that's off the table now. Also the Giants have been linked to Rolen, but I can't imagine them talking on his salary. However, if J.P. Ricciardi was willing to eat a portion of the contract maybe the Giants could be a fit.

Minor league strength

The Jays minor league system has thinned a bit, but that's mostly because a lot of their prospects are already in the major leagues. The Jays consensus top prospect is 21-year-old outfielder Travis Snieder, who currently plays for the Jays Triple-A Las Vegas. Snieder is struggling a bit batting only .246, but it's more than understandable considering his age and the level he is playing at. Minor League Ball John Sickels grades Snieder as an A- prospect, and he anticipates that Snieder may struggle in the early going, but he expects him to develop in the long run.

Some other prospects to keep an eye on for the Blue Jays are catcher J.P. Arencibia, and shortstop Justin Jackson. Arencibia also plays for Triple-A Las Vegas, is batting .240 with 9 homers and 42 RBIs. Jackson the Jays 2007 first round pick plays for Single-A Dunedin. He has struggled to say the least at the plate, but he does have 16 SB this year. He's considered a real smooth fielding shortstop, and most scouts think his bat will come around, as he gets older.

Take on short-term money to win?

No. The Jays can barely handle the money they currently have. In fact as we've stated the Jays are doing their due diligence to rid themselves of some of the over expenditures they have on the books right now. However, no need for Jays fans to feel bad, you'll probably be the center of attention for about the next 11 days.

For more coverage of the Blue Jays, check out Blue Bird Banter.

I Work These Hands to Bleed; I've Got These Mouths to Feed: Prospect Midseason Report, vol. 1

hugo — Sat, 04 Jul 2009 00:03:19 -0000

More photos » by Darren Calabrese - AP

Ricky Romero has leapt tall prospect lists in a single bound, jumping all the way from the Jays' 9th-best prospect to one of the AL's better starting pitchers thusfar this season. (AP Photo/The Canadian Press, Darren Calabrese)

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Thanks to Ryan Adams (not your inferior Canadian B-Ryan version and definitely don't call him that unless you want to be evicted from the 9:30 club) for today's title, from the beautiful sad song "In My Time of Need," off Heartbreaker, his finest record By the way, best shows I ever saw (and there have been hundreds if not thousands) was an all-acoustic show - Tegan and Sara and Ryan Adams, with Gillian Welch and David Rawlings. Unfortunately, Ryan Adams also put on, by far, the worst show I ever saw, so there's that). I thought it appropriate since we will be looking at the Jays' farm system and the song is about a farmer. Anyway, we'll be looking at the Jays top 10 prospects, as we defined them in this LOTR themed post. Things have obviously changed, but we won't update the rankings until later on.

1. Travis Snider. Moonraker has had a tough time of it. Travis essentially was given the starting left field job before Spring Training even starter, and he did have a fine spring. Unfortunately that only carried about two weeks into the regular season before cracks started showing themselves. Travis couldn't hit much of anything after that, and soon found himself back at AAA. Sadly, Moonraker didn't even have a chance to get his feet under him before going down to shoulder and back injuries, and he hasn't even swung a bat in weeks. He'll try to get on track now that he's been reactivated and could be a September callup (or even earlier, though I tend to doubt that) for the team. Looking behind the numbers, Snider wasn't the victim of bad luck in the majors- just bad hitting. Quite the opposite, his numbers are actually better than his 13.9% line drive rate would suggest. Travis needs to refne his eye at the plate (6.6% walk rate this season, no different than his callup last year) before he finds consistent big-league success. That said, there's no reason to think his future is any brighter than it was before the season - the most worrying thing about this year isn't the 21-year old's hiccup, but the injury (from which he was just activated). It wouldn't surprise me to see him put together a nice second half and head into next year ready to make some waves.

2. Brett Cecil - Cecil wasn't expected to pitch in the bigs this early, particularly after flaming out early on in his spring training bid, but a steady stream of injuries has caused him to make 6 starts and find his way into the Jays' rotation. His 5.09 ERA doesn't look very impressive, but in truth Cecil has been quite good, with 4 good starts and 2 ERA-inflatingly poor ones. Brett has a 24/10 K/BB ratio over his 35 innings, and is more the victim of bad luck on home runs than anything else. With his sinking fastball, Cecil has always had devastatingly good HR rates in the minors, but he ran into a patch of HRs in the majors, particularly in one start against Boston in which he yielded 4 long balls. Cecil displayed a very good fastball, albeit one over which he could have more control, a world-class slider, and a decent changeup. I think his curve needs some work; he seemed to have trouble throwing it for strikes and he hung the occasional one too. With so many Jay pitchers hurt, it looks like Cecil has some more opportunity to show what he can do, and it wouldn't surprise me to see him put together a nice second half. I would like to see the team leave him in the majors at this point unless he pitches his way down.

3. J.P. Arencibia - Arencibia essentially entered this season with two main goals - continue to work on his defense, and develop an improved approach at the plate. While his defense has continued to progress, his approach at the plate has been another story. I thought the Jays were a little aggressive in starting Arencibia at AAA, and he has had some problems there - hitting just .236/.291/.417. That said, he has improved his walk rate - he already has 16 walks this season (in 287 plate appearances) after drawing just 18 all of last season (528 PAs). It's not a drastic difference and still is just a 5.6% walk rate, but it is something. While Arencibia's hitting hasn't been fantastic, he has turned it on some recently, and while he only has 8 HRs so far after hitting 27 last season between AA and AAA, he has 23 doubles and a triple already, which is encouraging. Unfortunately, he was recently put on the DL - let's hope it's not a serious injury. Although Arencibia hasn't progressed as fast as some of us would have hoped, he is holding his own and remains one of the better catching prospects in the game. He might not start 2010 in the majors, but he could be an early callup and an impact player that season.

4. David Cooper - Cooper looked like he was on the fast track to the majors after he jumped from Auburn to Dunedin and then, just as quickly, to New Hampshire last season, but his development has hit a snag so far this season. Cooper has shown a nice eye at the plate (10.4% walk rate) but hasn't shown much power yet (19 extra-base hits, including just 4 home runs). At 22, he has plenty of time to figure out double A. That said, a big second half would go a long way toward demonstrating that his first-round selection in 2008 was a wise one. As an underpowered first baseman with subpar defense, the margin for error isn't large with Cooper.

5. Justin Jackson - Jackson entered this season possessing a strong defensive reputation but some question marks as to how he might develop offensively. That's still very much true of the 20-year old. Jackson looked pretty good in spring training but really struggled to start the season, striking out in over 1/3 of his at-bats and not hitting much of anything. He returned from injury and was good at first but, since then, has continued to struggle at the plate, hitting just .233/.354/.291 on the season and .217/.360/.275 this month. The walk rates are very nice (15.6% this season) but that won't last if he can't start hitting more. He continues to strike out at a rather alarming rate (36%) so making consistent contact will be his primary goal for now. That said, Jackson is young for Dunedin and so it's not a huge surprise to see him struggle in the first half. The key will be seeing if he develops at all this second half. In the field, he continues to draw accolades, though he has also made 16 errors thusfar.

6. Kevin Ahrens - Ahrens, another 20-year old playing at Dunedin, has had some similar problems to Jackson - namely, making contact. Ahrens is hitting just .230/.307/.305 and not showing much in the way of power. The switch-hitter has been a bit unlucky on balls in play, it looks like, and, unlike Jackson, he hasn't had much of a problem with strikouts (22%), though he also hasn't walked as much (9.5%). Bottom line, both Jackson and Ahrens are practically teenagers playing A+ ball, so that they are struggling isn't a shock.

7. Scott Campbell - a bit of a personal favourite, Campbell continues in his quest to become the first native New Zealander to play in the major leagues. Campbell impressed a lot of people this spring after a very strong AA season last year, but of course there was no room for him on the big league team so it was a foregone conclusion that he'd end up in Las Vegas. AAA wasn't kind to Campbell the first time around, and he was unlucky in that just when he started going, he got hurt and missed several weeks. He recently returned and was doing quite well in AA, working his way back up, but then got hurt again. It's quickly turning into a lost season for the Kiwi and he'll try to get healthy and get himself back into AAA and hopefully put up some better numbers.

8. Brad Mills - Mills has had an interesting season. He drew a lot of good remarks in the spring, staying in the race for a rotation spot until the bitter end, when Ricky Romero and Scott Richmond won out instead. But Mills has had an up-and-down season since then. He started off terribly in Las Vegas, walking more batters than he struck out in April, before settling down in May. He struggled in June, though, until he was somewhat surprisingly called up when Casey Janssen and Doc Halladay went on the DL. With the Jays, neither of Mills' two starts could be said to be successful, but he did show his potential striking out 9 over his 7 2/3 innings. However, he had a ton of trouble throwing strikes (7.04 BB/9) and when he did, they got pounded (4 HR and a .442 BABIP against). Mills needs to keep the ball down (his flyball rates are troubling) and get ahead in the count to be successful, and he wasn't able to do that for the Jays. Back in AAA, though, Mills got back on track immediately with a gem of a start yesterday - 8 shutout innings, 2 hits, 7 Ks, and just 1 walk. His overall minor league numbers aren't bad, especially for the PCL, so it's just a question of doing it consistently.

9. Ricky Romero - What is there to say about Romero? Tom already covered Romero's progress, and it has been most impressive. I'm not sure he will pitch in the minors again (save a rehab start here or there). Yes, Romero has been the beneficiary of good luck (87% of runners stranded isn't sustainable) and/or good defense (4.04 FIP, compared to a 2.85 ERA). But he has also made his own luck - a sub 3 BB/9 (2.97) and 7.56 K/9 is extremely impressive for a rookie lefthander, and foretells continued success, as does his ability to get ahead of hitters. Romero has a good fastball, nice breaking pitches, and a very impressive changeup that he is able to throw in any count, making it a formidable weapon. His makeup has also been very impressive - he seems to exhibit excellent poise on the mound and seems both tough and coachable. The East LA kid has gone long way, jumping from 9th best Jays' prospect (and we got some raised eyebrows for ranking him this highly) to one of the better pitchers in the AL this season. If we can keep him away from pollen, we've got ourselves a keeper, I'd venture to say.

10. John Tolisano - Despite being consistently ranked lower than his draftmates with whom he has come up the system, Kevin Ahrens and Justin Jackson (including by us, but we like him more than most), Tolisano has performed more impessively than either of them at each level. At least, at the plate (I hear mixed things about his defense at second). Tolisano is hitting a respectable .255/.319/.427 this season, with 8 home runs thusfar. He has a decent eye at the plate, makes decent contact, and is showing some power (.173 Iso-p) and is putting together a respectable season at high-A, pretty good for a 20-year old. Tolisano has been hot recently, so a big second half is a possibility.

Well, folks, that's all for now. We'll cover the next 10 at some future date.

I'm Standing on a Bridge In a Town Where I Lived As a Kid: Blue Jays System Minor League Report

hugo — Mon, 22 Jun 2009 16:27:03 -0000

Hi everyone. It's been a little while, I figured we should use the off-day to take a look at how the minor-league affiliates, and, more importantly, the young Jay-to-be hopefuls, are doing.

Las Vegas:

Travis Snider is still out of action with a shoulder injury and isn't set to start swinging a bat again until July. David Dellucci has been quiet for the 51s, hitting just .250/.242/.344, with three doubles over 33 plate appearances. Michael Barrett recently returned to AAA (he's only played 2 games there). J.P. Arencibia has been ice-cold recently -- after a hot May, he is hitting only .200/.235/.262 in June. He does have 19 doubles and 8 home runs on the season but things aren't going well at the moment at all. Randy Ruiz has always put up big minor-league numbers and this season is no exception - he has 41 extra base hits (including 15 home runs) already this season and a .972 OPS.

On the mound, the 51s rotation has taken a hit with Brad Mills and Brett Cecil both up at the big club. Fabio Castro has slowed down after a hot start at AAA - he's now sporting just a 30/26 K/BB ratio over 63 2/3 innings, though he still has a nice 3.11 ERA and a winning record. David Purcey has two successful starts in a row and his walk rate continues to recede to respectable levels. Bryan Bullington is putting up pretty good numbers in the bullpen, with over a strikeout per inning and a 35/6 K/BB ratio.

New Hampshire:

Scott Campbell is back from injury and working his way up the minors - In 25 plate appearances at AA, he's hitting a Campbell-esque .300/.440/.400 with as many walks (5) as strikeouts and has yet to make an error, playing 2nd and 3rd. I imagine he'll be back with Las Vegas soon. Brian Dopirak continues to rake -- he's hitting .307/.369/.580 on the season and is even better than that so far in June (1.020 OPS) with 39 extra-base hits (16 HRs) already. He could be ready to move up, but Randy Ruiz and Brett Harper are entrenched at AAA at the 1st base and DH spots. Other than those two, there's not much offense to speak of - catcher Brian Jeroloman's bat (.706 OPS) remains cold, and second baseman Brad Emaus, who looked so good for the Jays in spring training, has really fallen off, hitting just .127/.182/.197 in June.

On the mound, Marc Rzepczynski has been good all season, but has really turned it up in June, where he's 1-0 with a 0.45 ERA over his 3 starts and, still better, a 21/7 K/BB ratio over 20 innings. His season totals are similarly excellent (2.93 ERA, 88/36 K/BB ratio over 76 2/3 innings and an excellent groundball ratio) despite being extremely hit-unlucky. It's been a very successful half-season for Zep. Reidier Gonzalez and Luis Perez have also done a nice job out of New Hampshire's rotation.

Dunedin:

Dunedin's outfield has been excellent all season, and all three: centrefielder Darrin Mastroianni, leftfielder Eric Thames, and rightfielder Moises Sierra, were all named to the Florida State League North Division all star team. Mastroianni has a .325/.390/.426 line, with 32 steals, while Thames and Sierra have similar overall lines - both showing good power for young hitters and hitting well recently. The trio of early 2007 draftee infielders -- John Tolisano, Justin Jackson, and Kevin Ahrens, have done less well. That said, Tolisano is having a nice June (.311/.328/.475) with an extra-base hit every 10 at-bats so far. Jackson has also been better this month -- not as good as he was in May upon returning from his injury, but OPSing a respectable .726 in June and striking out much less (just 11 times in 56 plate appearances this month). Ahrens, though, has been just as cold (.588 OPS in June v. .576 over the season). Adam Loewen is still waiting for things to click (.584 OPS this season) and is still waiting for his first home run.

On the pitching side - 2008 draftee Andy Liebel's 2-8 record is misleading - Liebel has a very nice 65/20 K/BB ratio over his 77 1/3 innings and a steady 1.33 WHIP. He's been especially strong in June and is having a fine first full pro season. Kenny Rodriguez (5-2, 1.99 ERA, 48/21 K/BB ratio over 54 1/3 IP, 1.12 Whip) is also having a fine season in the rotation, while Trystan Magnuson, Daniel Farquar, and Tim Collins are pitching very well out of the bullpen -- Collins has a ridiculous 57 Ks in 37 1/3 innings, and isn't walking many (14) to do it. Farquar (23/11 K/BB ratio over 17 relief innings for a 0.53 ERA) and Collins joined the aforementioned trio of outfielders and infielder Raul Barron on the all-star team.

Lansing:

Outfielder Johermyn Chavez had a bit of a May dropoff after a very hot April, but has picked things up a bit in June - with 5 home runs already this month. On the season, he has 12 home runs, 11 doubles, and 5 triples, serious power for a 20-year old hitter in the tough-on-hitters Midwest League. His overall line is .266/.331/.500. He's learning how to take a walk too - he has 21 walks in 265 plate appearances this season after drawing just 25 in 427 plate appearances last season. Shortstop Ty Pastornicky hasn't figured out Midwest League pitching yet (.261/.339/.312) but he can draw a walk and he's been all over the bases (31/40 in steal attempts).

On the mound, Charles Huggins was so good (1.57 ERA) he was called up to Dunedin. Chase Lirette, who recovered from shoulder surgery about halfway through the season last year, is old for the level but off to a very good start (1.87 ERA, 24/8 K/BB ratio) so he could move up soon as well.

Auburn:

The season has only just started for the Doubledays. Some players on the team who have already seen action with whom you might be familiar are 2008 draftee Marcus Brisker (OF), 2007 draftee Eric Eiland (CF), and 2009 draftees Lance Durham (son of Leon, also a first baseman) and Jonathan Fernandez (son of Tony, also a shorstop)

I'm Achin' to Be: Minor League Update

hugo — Mon, 18 May 2009 14:45:18 -0000

Thanks to the great band the Replacements for today's minor-league update, which certainly fits for many of our young players trying to work their way up and out of the minors.

Las Vegas

J.P. Arencibia has turned it on a bit of late, hitting .300/.364/.625 over his last 10 games, with 3 home runs, 10 RBI, and 4 doubles. Also very encouraging is his 4 walks over that span (he only had 2 prior to that). Arencibia's on-base numbers over the season are still poor (.283), but he is starting to pick up steam. Scott Campbell, on the other hand, picked up an injury and hasn't played in a while. I haven't been able to find out much about his injury, so if someone could clue us in, that'd be great. Russ Adams has also been out with an injury. Kyle Philips has been hitting well since his promotion to Las Vegas (.373/.433/.525 in 65 plate appearances).

On the pitching side, Brad Mills has been excellent after a rough start. He still hasn't won a game (0-5) but it's through no fault of his own as he has had an excellent May, with a 2.66 ERA with 26 strikeouts and 10 walks over 23 2/3 innings. Fabio Castro has been even better, with a 1.03 ERA over his 4 Las Vegas starts. And David Purcey had a great start his last time out after 2 shaky ones, going 8 scoreless innings and striking out 7 while walking only 2 and yielding 3 hits. Another good outing from Purcey and the Jays will have 3 very viable callup options. Ricky Romero is scheduled to make his first start for the 51s today after a few so-so starts for New Hampshire. Jeremy Accardo had a rough outing last week, his first poor outing of the year. He's a good candidate for a bullpen callup.

New Hampshire

Brian Dopirak continues to make his case for promotion -- he's now hitting .324/.370/.569 and has 8 home runs, 12 doubles, and 1 triple. He has hit both lefties and righties well. Brad Emaus (.299/.378/.479) continues to do a nice job at the plate and has shown a good batting eye recently, with 7 walks to 7 Ks over his last 10 games. On the other hand, Brian Jeroloman and David Cooper have struggled recently and both are now OPS-ing less than .700 for the season. Sean Shoffit (.154/.298/.253) has really had problems after an encouraging spring for the Jays.

New Hampshire's starting pitching continues to be excellent in the absence of Castro, with Marc Rzepczynski really standing out. Zep is 6-2 with a a 2.93 ERA and 52 Ks to 21 walks in 43 innings, not to mention tons of ground ball outs. And he has turned it up even more in May, with a 17/4 K/BB ratio over his 3 starts (18 1/3 IP). And rehabbing Casey Janssen has been nothing short of fantastic - the 27-year old has a 0.77 ERA in his 2 appearances for New Hamphsire after a 0.75 in 3 starts at Dunedin. Overall, Casey has 17 Ks to just 5 walks.

Dunedin

Eric Thames (.340/.418/.462), Darrin Mastroianni (.308/.423/.377) with 23 BBs and 23 Ks and 25/28 on the basepaths, and Moses Sierra (.302/.386/.440) continue to play superb outfield. Justin Jackson has returned and has been red hot, going 8-11 with a double, a walk, and just one K in his four games back. Kevin Ahrens is still rather quiet, and John Tolisano has quieted down but still has, by far, the best numbers of the three at .255/.345/.459. Adam Loewen (.621 OPS) hasn't picked it up yet.

Tim Collins, who started off the season on an absolute tear, has actually been rather shaky lately, with a 6.00 ERA and a 7/5 K/BB ratio over his last 5 appearances. Andy Liebel, who has been having trouble despite excellent peripheral numbers all year a 29/11 K/BB ratio and just 3 HRs allowed in 40 2/3 innings, had by far his worst peripheral start of the season (4 walks and 3 Ks over 6) but just gave up 1 earned run. That was following a start where he struck out 7 and walked no one over 6 innings and gave up 4 runs.

Lansing

Johermyn Chavez continues to swing a very hot bat (.314/.345/.610) with 7 home runs, 6 doubles, and 4 triples on the season. 2008 draftee and third-base prospect Mark Sobelewski has had a very nice May, hitting .309/.408/.418. Balbino Fuenmayor has turned it up after a horrible start to the season, and is hitting .364/.364/.545 in May. However, the majority of Lansing's hitters, incluing Ty Pastornicky, Jon Del Campo, Marcus Brisker, Kenneth Wilson, and the catching tandem of Jon Talley and AJ Jimenez, are not hitting well.

On the other side of the ball, Henderson Alvarez, John Anderson, and Charles Huggins are pitching well, with Huggins (1.78 ERA, 1.02 Whip, and 31 Ks and 10 walks over 30 2/3 innings, though he just turned 23) the best of the three thusfar.