SB Nation - David Price

Rosenthal To Rays: Just Give Up!

Tommy Rancel — Wed, 23 Dec 2009 11:00:21 -0000

by Steve Nesius - AP

The James (Shields) Gang should just give up according to Ken Rosenthal

With something like 150 free agents remaining unsigned, and two months until pitchers and catchers report, the Rays should just cancel the upcoming 2010 season. Forget spending the spring in Port Charlotte or having an opening day at home for the first time in years, the season is over right now; at least it is according to Ken Rosenthal. The senior baseball writer for Foxsports.com wrote the following last night...

Rest of AL East should just give up now

How would you like to be the Tampa Bay Rays? The Baltimore Orioles? The Toronto Blue Jays?

Now pitching for the Yankees in 2010: CC Sabathia, A.J. Burnett, Andy Pettitte and Javier Vazquez.

Now pitching for the Red Sox: Josh Beckett, John Lackey, Jon Lester and Clay Buchholz.

And rest assured, the two AL East super-powers are not done.

-snip-

Sabathia, Burnett and Pettitte will welcome Vazquez, make him feel comfortable, help him relax. Vazquez will be in the final year of his contract, pitching for one last big free-agent score. Yes, there are questions about him, just as there are questions about Lackey, who has been on the disabled list with arm injuries in each of the past two seasons.

Tell it to Tampa Bay. Tell it to Baltimore. Tell it to Toronto.

Rosenthal also mentions that the Yankees will replace Melky Cabrera with a free agent and the Red Sox could still add Adrian Gonzalez, but none of that matters. Just look at those front four starters for each team and cancel your season tickets. Sure, in Toronto and Baltimore, 2010 is looked upon as a rebuilding year, but how about the 2008 AL Champion Rays? Ah, forget it too.

A team with a front FIVE of Shields, Garza, Price, Niemann and Davis is apparently not good enough to compete in this division. First, the Rays don't have a real ace. James Shields is nice and all, but no ace. I'm not even going to listen to people when they say now that besides the newly National League'd Roy Halladay, James Shields is the only other starter in the AL to post a 4 WAR season in each of the past three years. Or that he's racked up nearly 800 innings of sub 4 FIP ball in his career. He also just turned 28, is about to hit what many consider his prime years and under contract for seasons to come at a bargain...pass!

Forget the 2008 ALCS MVP, Matt Garza and his crazy 93=96 mph fastball. Who can win with this hot-head? All he did in 2009 was top 200 innings for the first time in his career while maintaining a steady 4.17 FIP and 4.21 xFIP. Surely headed into the 2010 season at age 26 there is no room to improve already improving K/BB, LOB%, or contact rate. Seriously folks, a slider that had the fourth best pitch value among AL starters and generated a swing and a miss 20.1% of the time isn't that impressive.

Behind those two guys what do you have? David Price, a former #1 overall selection and one-time consensus top two prospect in baseball? All Price did last year was develop from a two pitch pony into a potential five pitch stallion. Honestly, there is nothing to get excited about from a 24-year-old left hander who throws in the mid 90s and showed tremendous improvement in control during the season. I'm sure you're not believing that just because his BB% went from 16.8% to 6.3%.that he's actually maturing as a pitcher. Let's also disqualify the fact that over the final ~70 innings, Price managed to get over 44% groundballs.

Jeff Niemann and Wade Davis? Let's face facts here my friends. Jeff Niemann and his straight fastball don't scare anyone (ok, maybe that one is really true). In his first full season in the big leagues, the Big Nyquil posted a 3.2 WAR season while throwing 180 innings of 4.07 FIP ball. The fact that his 3.94 ERA was within .15 runs of his FIP shouldn't get your hopes up. Nor the fact that his BABIP looks pretty sustainable. What I want to see out of my big 6'9 RHP is strikeouts and Niemann doesn't do much of that so just toss him aside.

This Davis kid looked completely overmatched in his first taste of big league ball. Sure, in his third start he tossed a four-hit, 10 strikeout shutout masterpiece, but he got hammered in Fenway just five days before. I know he's likely a consensus top 35 prospect, but so what? You don't really believe that his mid 90s fastball along with his hammer curveball and slider that missed 15% of bats (sss) will really last an entire season, do you?

Taking my tongue out of cheek now, I'm not saying the Rays rotation is the best in the AL East. That would be silly. However, discounting them completely is also silly. The Rays very well may finish in third place, but I seriously doubt they won't contend for most of if not the entire season. While some may honestly believe the AL East race is over in late December, I think Shields, Garza, Price, Niemann, Davis, B.J. Upton, Carl Crawford, Evan Longoria, Carlos Pena, Ben Zobrist, Jason Bartlett, J.P. Howell, Grant Balfour, the newly added Kelly Shoppach and Rafael Soriano might have something to say about that.

Don't Sleep on David Price

FreeZorilla — Thu, 12 Nov 2009 18:00:52 -0000

by Bill Kostroun - AP

David Price has seemingly gone incognito from the public expectations.

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It sure seems strange to be writing this. A year ago, David Price was on the cover of every pre-season baseball preview. The former #1 overall pick's triumphant pose following the 2008 ALCS was etched into history and people were projecting him as the 2009 staff ace. DRaysBay urged caution with the two-pitch lefthander, but when Price began the season in Durham, fans mercilessly were calling the Rays cheap. Then, David Price debuted and he pretty much struck out or walked every batter while struggling to make it into the fifth inning. Meanwhile Jeff Niemann emerged as a surprise rookie of the year candidate along with Brett Anderson of Oakland and Rick Porcello of Detroit. Very quietly, Price seemed to reinvent himself over the 2nd half of the season, both walking and striking out fewer hitters. However, his ratio was improving as was his ground ball percentage. Over the final two months of the season, price finished with a GB% north of 44%. He also began throwing his changeup, his missing third pitch, with more frequency and greater confidence. The change actually ended the season as his top-ranked pitch according to linear weights Runs Above Average per 100 pitches at .88. Below is a comparison of the Tale of Two Prices:

	FIP	ERA	BB/9	K/9	BA	OBP	SLG
1st Half	5.31	4.70	6.3	9.6	0.241	0.360	0.429
2nd Half	4.37	4.27	2.5	5.9	0.241	0.296	0.380

They profile like entirely different pitchers. Let's see how 2^nd half Price fared against the seasonal numbers of Anderson, Porcello, and Niemann:

	Age	FIP	xFIP	ERA	BB/9	K/9	BA	OBP	SLG	GB%
Rick Porcello	20	4.77	4.52	3.96	2.7	4.7	0.267	0.323	0.416	54.2%
Brett Anderson	21	3.69	3.8	4.06	2.3	7.7	0.265	0.312	0.399	50.9%
Jeff Niemann	26	4.07	4.74	3.94	2.9	6.2	0.266	0.33	0.399	40.5%
David Price	24	4.59	4.72	4.42	3.8	7.2	0.241	0.319	0.397	41.5%
Price 2nd half	24	4.37	N/A	4.27	2.5	5.9	0.241	0.296	0.380	N/A

The three-pitch Price measures up nicely with the rest of this crowd. Of course, other rookies may also have improved as the season progressed. There's a bias that favors Porcello and Anderson in that they pitch more frequently against weaker hitters. Below you will see the average BB and K%'s of the teams in each division:

	BB%	K%	K/BB
AL East	9.76%	19.32%	1.98
AL Central	8.86%	19.68%	2.22
AL West	8.13%	19.95%	2.45

There is a 1.63% difference between in walks between the AL East and West. This does not even take into account some of the hitter friendly ballparks of the East. What if we were to look at how each pitcher fared vs. each division sorted by FIP (small sample size alert)?:

	FIP	IP	K/9	BB/9
Niemann AL Central	3.13	54.4	7.11	1.49
Anderson AL Central	3.18	45.4	8.13	2.38
Price AL Central	3.27	29.3	9.22	3.69
Anderson AL West	3.66	70	7.07	2.19
Anderson AL East	4.18	51	7.94	2.29
Porcello Central	4.56	77.3	4.54	2.45
Niemann AL East	4.61	63.9	5.92	3.8
Niemann AL West	4.72	47.3	5.71	3.04
Price AL West	4.81	23.6	8.01	6.1
Price AL East	4.93	57.7	6.24	2.96
Porcello East	5.08	31.4	4.59	3.44
Porcello West	5.91	38.4	5.39	2.34

77 innings in the weak Central saved Porcello as his FIP was north of 5 against the rest of the American League. The sensational Anderson clearly comes out the best as he was the top dog against the East and West, and placed 2^nd in the Central. One important caveat: Each pitcher faced each team a different amount of times. Price was heavily penalized in the West with all 26.3 innings coming against Texas and Anaheim. Had he had the chance to face Seattle and/or Oakland, it is very likely he would have ranked higher.

I feel pretty comfortable projecting Price to rise to the top or at least alongside Anderson as the best pitcher in this crop. As he continues to gain confidence in his third offering and rediscover his prized slider, I would expect his K rate to improve again while maintaining a lower walk rate. Don't make the mistake of letting David Price be the forgotten man of the rotation.

Washington Nationals News: Stephen Strasburg's 3rd Start, More Front Office Moves.

Ed Chigliak — Wed, 28 Oct 2009 02:40:20 -0000

More photos » by Charles Dharapak - AP

4 months ago: Pitcher Stephen Strasburg, the No. 1 overall draft pick in the baseball draft, holds up a Washington Nationals jersey with third baseman Ryan Zimmerman during a news conference at Nationals Park in Washington, Friday, Aug. 21, 2009. (AP Photo/Charles Dharapak)

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Bouncing back from a rough outing in his second AFL start, Washington's '09 No. 1 overall pick Stephen Strasburg threw four hitless, walking only two, before surrendering a leadoff double in the fifth inning of this afternoon's Arizona Fall League game between Strasburg's Phoenix Desert Dogs and the visiting Surprise Rafters. Fellow Nationals' prospect, D-Dogs' right-hander Josh Wilkie came on in relief, let Strasburg's run in and gave up an unearned run on an error, but preserved the Phoenix Desert Dogs' 4-2 lead in what ends up a 7-6 Strasburg win...

BACKPAGE:

• Strasburg's Line, AFL Game Notes

• Nationals' Add Kasey McKeon To Front Office.

BACKPAGE:

Strasburg (2-1, 6.97 ERA) throws 4.1 IP, allows 1 H, 1 ER, and 2 walks, while striking out 5 and throwing 67 pitches, 42 for strikes to 16 batters, 3 of whom ground out and 5 of whom fly out. After a 13-pitch first which saw the Nationals' 21-year-old right-hander record back-to-back K's before a one-out walk and a line drive out, Strasburg needed 18 to pitches to get through the second, which started with a walk and ended 3 batters later following a fly out, K and groundout. 11 pitches, two groundouts and an infield pop got Strasburg to the fourth where he retired the Rafters in order for four hitless, before the Kansas City Royals' '07 1st Round pick, third baseman Mike Moustakas, taken second overall behind the Rays' David Price, gets the Rafters' first hit.

• AFL Game Notes: DC SS prospect Danny Espinosa goes 2 for 4 with a double and a run scored, and he's now hitting .314 in 10 games and 35 AFL at bats in which he's collected 1 double and 5 RBI's. The Nationals' future first baseman Chris Marrero gets a start at first for a change after a few DH appearances, and goes 1 for 4 with a run scored, and the '06 1st Round pick is now hitting .333 with 13 hits in 29 at bats over which he's hit 3 doubles and 2 HR's while knocking in 8 and posting a .435 OBP, .564 SLG, and a .999 OPS.

Final Score: Desert Dogs 7, Rafters 6. MLB.com's GameDay.

Further Reading:

• "Strasburg allows 1 hit in 4 1/3 [updated]" - Chatter - Washington Times - Mark Zuckerman.

"It's another beautiful afternoon at Phoenix Municipal Stadium, where the Phoenix Desert Dogs are ready to host the Surprise Rafters ..."

• Nationals' Add Kasey McKeon, Jay Robertson To Front Office.

I first read about this at the SB Nation's MLB Daily Dish, in a post by Eli Greenspan entitled, "Nationals add former scouting director to front office", which linked to one of the the first published reports, in an article by FOXSports.com writer Jon Paul Morosi entitled, "Nats add McKeon, Roberts to front office", that broke the news that Washington had convinced two more baseball executives to join GM Mike Rizzo's front office in DC. Kasey McKeon, who'd served as a special assistant to Colorado Rockies' GM Dan O'Dowd, and Jay Robertson, who'd been a special asst. to the GM in the Rangers' front office, left their respective teams to join the movement in the nation's capital.

According to Baseball-Reference.com's quick bio on Kasey McKeon, the son of former Marlins' Skipper Jack McKeon was a catcher drafted by the Detroit Tigers (out of San Diego State University) who transitioned to scouting and then front office work with the Padres, Indians, Reds and finally the Rockies, and now McKeon will become the Nationals' Director of Player Procurement. According to Mr. Morosi's FOXSport.com article, Jay Robertson, who worked as a special assistant to the GM with the Rangers for the last eight years, after having spents 11 years in the Cleveland Indians' organization, will now be a special assistant to Mike Rizzo in DC.

Now how about that manager?

Matt Garza's Slider is Filthy

R.J. Anderson — Mon, 26 Oct 2009 00:01:49 -0000

These are all pitches thrown at least 200 times (except in Wade Davis' case, the limit was 50). Note: Whiff% is (Swinging Strikes/Total Pitches)*100 and rounded to two decimal points.

To avoid making this a data dump, here's some commentary:

James Shields doesn't have wowing stuff. If you've watched him since 2006 then the newness factor has also wore off. In ways he's undervalued by his own fan base because when watching him few things amaze you. He's a workhouse, a pretty dependable one, but he throws a fastball that averages a little over 90 MPH and an assortment of other pitches. Somehow, someway, Shields has three pitches within the top six. The change-up that made him, a curve, and his cutter. His slider and other fastballs rank far lower and seem to contribute to his so-so reputation. It doesn't help that when he seems to miss with those pitches they wind up in the sky and land far away either.
Matt Garza has the most contactless pitch on staff. The pitches people really know him for - his hard heat and knee-buckling curve - are less impressive. This seems odd.
Wade Davis is just as human as anyone else in this list, he just looks better while pitching. Small sample size and all, I'm not sure how he can possess this stuff and have such mediocre whiff rates in Durham.
Jeff Niemann uses his fastball something like 70% of the time. This is bad because A) he becomes predictable and B) it's his worst pitch. Unsurprisingly, it rates near the bottom of the list. Shields has probably never heard of DRB, but please, James, if you're somehow reading this, teach Niemann the ways of working around your fastball.
David Price's change-up was his least hittable pitch. What?

Part I: Interview with Alex Eisenberg of Baseball-Intellect

Bryan Everson (The Royalty of Roto) — Sat, 24 Oct 2009 16:15:13 -0000

More photos » by Winslow Townson - AP

5 months ago: Oakland Athletics starting pitcher Brett Anderson delivers against the Boston Red Sox during the first inning of a baseball game at Fenway Park in Boston on Monday, July 6, 2009. (AP Photo/Winslow Townson)

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Although this is my first baseball-related article on Fake Teams, here's proof I haven't been drinking Heinekens and watching the NFL all week.

First, I'd like to take a quick pat on the back and make this my first announcement that beginning shortly, I'm also going to be joining another staff in cahoots with Yahoo shortly over at Rivals.com. I'll be working as an intern and partly taking some basketball reins for Michigan Preps, the Michigan division of the network. Anyone who reads the college blogs over here, I look forward to sharing whatever knowledge I acquire over there and make sure everyone's getting some love.

No one can be watching everything at once, which is why we're here; we want a collective set of great eyes to tell us what's going on, particularly in the fantasy community. In trying to answer some of the most pressing fantasy baseball-related questions regarding the 2009 MLB season, I brought in a really good set of eyes. Enter Alex Eisenberg, the man in charge of Baseball-Intellect.com. Alex scouts the guys (mostly prospects) that we eventually bid up in our auction drafts, and breaks them down in a technical aspect. While he also diagnoses guys in the Show, I asked him to sit down and take a deep look into why some guys produced the way they did. Part II of this interview, which focuses more on some prospects and their outlook for next year, will be coming shortly. Enjoy.

TROR: B.J. Upton was someone who Tampa Bay counted on a great deal to lead off originally and then struggled even as he was moved down to the bottom of the order. The shoulder injury was the original diagnosis for his struggle, but what do you think plagued him this year?

Alex: I can't put my finger on why Upton struggled so much. I remember seeing pitches Upton used to drive out of the park in 2007, die at the warning track this year. I've looked at his swing and there are some changes to the action of his front leg, but I'm not sure how much of an effect it would have on his power output. That might be an article for the future, but right now it's a bit of a mystery to me. I'll say this: His swing isn't that power-oriented and his 2007 season was largely a flukish sort of year for him. However, his natural progression should have counteracted a return to the norm in his numbers, but that hasn't happened.

TROR: On the subject of the Rays, David Price struggled when he was called up this year, but settled down and posted respectable numbers, if not what we expected necessarily from him. Do you think the ceiling for him has lowered?

Alex: Price's upside hasn't changed for me. He improved as the year progressed...his command still needs work as does his change-up, but his peripherals were strong for the most part across the board. So he's still a potential No. 1 starter though he's more likely to be a No. 2 simply because of the sheer difficulty in becoming a true No. 1 guy...but the potential is there.

(More after The Jump)

TROR: A lot of fantasy owners (myself included) have anticipated that Alex Gordon was going to take the leap and become what the Royals and a lot of scouts predicted. After returning from his extended absence and posting a respectable line in September, where do you see him in terms of his contribution in 2010?

Alex: I think I see Gordon as an above average regular. He's young enough that he's still a potential breakout candidate and he hasn't reached his peak yet...I'm not sure why he's struggled at the MLB level. Injuries, trouble hitting lefties, trouble with the breaking ball...he's always had a propensity to strike out a lot. I wish I had a better answer for you. I think it's something we'll just have wait-and-see on.

TROR: They're just a month apart in terms of age and on the same team, but Brett Anderson outperformed Trevor Cahill this year. Does Anderson have the better upside both short-term and long-term?

Alex: Brett Anderson for me. They were neck and neck prior to last season. But Anderson really set himself apart. Anderson's velocity increased again (he used to be 87 - 89 in high school, it jumped to around 90 - 94 in the minors and at the start of the year and then he started hitting 92 - 96, even touching 97 at a couple points last year). There was a subtle change in his mechanics...I haven't put my finger on it yet, but the timing looks better and the arm action looks better; something looked like it just clicked for him. He has a deep repertoire of pitches and he commands all of them well. Not to mention Anderson's feel for pitching is excellent. I think he has a tremendous future.

As for Cahill, we know he has problems with command. He also had a problem missing bats. What was strange for me is that in his start for Team USA last year, I saw a four-seamer that the stadium gun clocked at 97 and then at 96. The action on the pitch was different from his two-seam fastball and I didn't see that pitch much if at all last year. I'm not sure if he abandoned the pitch or if there was a malfunction with the stadium gun, but it lowered his stock in my eyes.

However, like Anderson, his repertoire of pitches is deep. When it's on, Cahill's sinker is heavy and difficult to lift...in addition, I've felt that Cahill might have that rare ability to limit contact on batted balls...he showed it last year and he's shown it over the course of his minor league career. We still need more data to make that case, however.

Overall, he was rushed to the major league level and still held his own. Also like Anderson, Cahill's velocity increased as the year went on. His upside is still considerable, but it's probably a notch below Anderson's. In addition, he's a higher risk to reach that upside.

TROR: Bronson Arroyo was definitely a Jekyll and Hyde type of pitcher this year. His ERA was the lowest its been in several years and despite a rise in IP, his strikeouts dropped. What's your diagnosis and forecast for him?

Alex: I expect Arroyo to regress next year. He's a workhorse, but it's taken a toll on his arm.

His K's were way down last year and his overall command was worse. His .270 BABIP indicates some good luck as does his LOB% of 76. Hitters made contact at a higher rate than they had in his prior few seasons. I expect his ERA to be somewhere in the 4's next year.

TROR: One of the biggest discussions this year was David Wright's dramatic shift in numbers, most notably a decrease in power and slight regression in K/BB ratio. How much of this do you believe is mental or related to the new stadium, and how much is mechanical?

Alex: I think the park certainly had something to do with his down year. His was better away from Citi Field...not by a huge amount, but by enough where you could consider it a factor.

Not sure if something is up with his mechanics but I'll say that he has changed his mechanics over the years. However, this year's mechanics are not much different from last year's.

A big part of Wright's declines were related to his head injury I believe. If you look at his September, post-concussion numbers....624 OPS, BB% of 7, K% of 30...those numbers really brought his overall numbers down and he said he found himself flinching at balls on the inner half of the plate. Combine that with the extreme pitcher's park he played in, I think that accounts for his down season.

-------------------------

There you have it. Some great insight, and some more definitive opinions on some key players who didn't quite turn out like they were projected. Again, check out Alex's work over at Baseball-Intellect.com, and look out for Part II of the interview real soon.

Stephen Strasburg Wins Muted Praise For AFL Debut

Charlie — Tue, 20 Oct 2009 20:17:02 -0000

More photos » by Elaine Thompson - AP

4 months ago: FILE - In this Aug. 22, 2008 file photo, USA starting pitcher Stephen Strasburg throws against Cuba in their semifinal baseball game at the Beijing 2008 Olympics in Beijing. (AP Photo/Elaine Thompson, FILE)

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Did anyone else read this review of Stephen Strasburg's Arizona Fall League debut and wonder where all the superlatives went? Overall, it sounds like Strasburg pitched very well, getting two strikeouts and a bunch of grounders while allowing no runs in 3.3 innings of work, all in a hitters' league and against much more experienced players. (Jose Tabata, from AAA, got a hit and a walk off him.) But Strasburg's velocity was down from previous reports (to 98 MPH, which obviously most pitchers would kill for, although it was down to 95 by the third inning) and his curve wasn't as sharp.

There's nothing here that suggests that Strasburg will be anything but an ace, but the praise is much more muted than it's been in the past. Whereas before he was the "best prospect ever," now he's merely "a sort of right-handed Dave Righetti," who should begin his career as a top starter but end it in the bullpen.

Strasburg is clearly a special case, but it appears that even he, a once-in-a-generation talent, is mortal. This wouldn't be the first time that reviews of a prospect suddenly became mixed after he signed, and clearly this phenomenon isn't confined to pitchers. But compare the supposedly objective information in the BA article (98 MPH fastball that dropped down to 95 after two innings, with an 88 MPH slider) to the report from the Olney article (102 MPH fastball, 94 MPH slider) and tell me what happened there.

If a Strasburg-type player were available to the Bucs in the first round of the draft, they probably should consider taking him. But any lesser pitcher? I really don't know. Reports about a pitcher's velocity are almost always dubious, because radar guns aren't terribly reliable, because people tend to err on the high side, and because velocity comes and goes. The best way to read a report that a pitcher "touches 95" is to say that he probably can reliably throw 89. And so I think the best way to approach an amateur pitcher's stuff is to say that if he really does touch 95, or if he really does throw a hammer curve, there's at least a theoretical possibility he'll be able to do that in three years. That's something, since plainly there is a large group of professional pitchers who are very unlikely to ever do those things. But so much can change in between the time a pitcher is drafted and the time he arrives in the big leagues that it's silly to count on it. In the case of Stephen Strasburg, who can lose three MPH off his fastball and still be one of the hardest throwers in the league, that's one thing. In the case of a lesser prospect (read: nearly all of them), that's quite another.

As you all know, the Pirates passed on a variety of high-upside arms with the fourth overall pick in the draft last year and took Tony Sanchez instead. They then took a bunch of interesting pitchers in the later rounds, including Zach Von Rosenberg, Colton Cain, Victor Black and Trent Stevenson. They seem to get that amateur pitchers (and especially high school pitchers) are best treated as theoretical possibilities.

It's way too early to comment much on the 2010 draft, which isn't for eight more months. But a glance at Andy Seiler's excellent draft blog shows him choosing a pitcher, LSU righty Anthony Ranaudo, with the second overall pick. Time will tell if Ranaudo is a Strasburg- or David Price-type prospect, but if he isn't, I don't think the Pirates will pick him, or any pitcher. Instead, they'll go with a position player and take their pitchers later. Theoretical possibilities are nice to have, and every team needs a lot of them, but they aren't so rare that you can't just take them later. Hitters are much more reliable commodities.

David Price Finds His Two-Seam Fastball And Goes Underground

Tommy Rancel — Fri, 16 Oct 2009 17:35:57 -0000

Along the way during the 2009 season something happened to David Price...in a good way. After reviewing Price's season month by month, I noticed that something happened between July and August. I'll let the chart speak for itself...

	IP	LD%	GB%	FB%
June	27.2	19.5	37.8	42.7
July	23.1	23.1	37.2	39.7
August	31.1	21.4	44.9	33.7
Sept/Oct	37	11.7	44.1	44.1

I left out the month of May as the 9 innings pitched is a smaller sample size in a study of already small samples.

As you can see Price went from a slight lean towards being a fly ball pitcher to a ground pounding gopher ball pitcher (slight exaggeration). My first instinct was that he might have thrown more curve balls or sliders and that would explain the increase, but looking at pitch usage by month this was not the case. In fact, Price went to less off speed stuff and increased his fastball usage quite a bit.

	IP	FB	SL	CB	CH
June	27.2	63.7	30.6	1.8	3.9
July	23.1	66.9	21.1	1.9	10.2
Aug	31.1	81.6	10.1	1.3	6.9
Sept/Oct	37	78.7	7	8.1	6.2

We all know Price loves his fastball, but he really loved from August on. However, this wasn't the same old 95 MPH rising heater that moved a little horizontally. This fastball moved in a lot more, moved down slightly more, and was thrown with a little less velocity; David Price had found his two seam fastball.

Thanks to R.J, we can see that shift on this plot. The average horizontal movement for the fastballs in starts 8-12 or July was 6.05. For starts 13-17 (August) that movement was 8.6. Vertically, the average blue diamonds moved 10.6. The red circles moved 9.2. Clearly, there was a shift towards more two seamers and this new process produced results.

The bad news is Price's K/9 dropped from 7.05 in June and July to 5.94 in August in September. Neither is what we had in mind for Price especially the latter. However, after posting an average BB/9 of 4.94 in June/July, his BB/9 dropped to 2.5 from August on. Overall, his strike percentage went from 62% to 68%. His HR/9 also dropped from 1.76 to 0.79. This led to a drop in FIP from 5.77 to a much shinier 3.84. Opposing hitters did not like the new approach from David Price as his OPS against was .612 over the final two months after it was .837 over the first two.

I'd like to think the shift in pitch type had something to do with second half success along with regression and just some better luck, but a larger sample size is needed to draw conclusions. Nonetheless, it seems that while continuing the search for his lost slider and his continued experimenting with his off-speed and breaking pitches, he stumbled upon yet another new weapon. If Price gets the handle on all of them he could go from a two pitch pony to a five pitch thoroughbred in less than 12 months.

Washington Nationals: Top 5 Stories Of 2009. No. 1...Stephen Strasburg Signs.

Ed Chigliak — Fri, 09 Oct 2009 20:11:21 -0000

More photos » by Charles Dharapak - AP

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1Stephen Strasburg Signs.

The biggest story of the year in NatsTown™ wasn't that the Washington Nationals drafted Stephen Strasburg #1 overall in the '09 First-Year Player Draft on June 9th, (his selection had been a foregone conclusion for over a year before the selection was made), no, the big news was that in the final moments before the August 18th midnight deadline to sign '09 draft picks, (11:58:43 on 8/17/09 to be exact, DC team President Stan Kasten joked in several publications that the Nationals, "...didn't even need that last minute..."), the Washington Nationals signed Stephen Strasburg to a record-setting $15M dollar deal, making the 21-year-old right-hander out of San Diego State University the highest paid prospect in baseball history.

Here's how the deal broke down, according to LA Times' bloggers Bill Shaikin and Dylan Hernandez's article entitled, "Strasburg's contract numbers":

"The signing bonus is $7.5 million, payable in three installments of $2.5 million each. The first payment is due 15 days after the contract is approved. The second payment is due Jan. 10, 2010. The third payment is due Jan. 10, 2011.

"Strasburg gets a prorated share of the minimum major league salary of $400,000 this season. He is guaranteed $2 million in 2010, $2.5 million in 2011 and $3 million in 2012."

(cont.)...

Strasburg was introduced to the DC Faithful several days later in a press conference on the third base line in Nationals Park, telling the gathered media and fans that he would be pitching in DC when the organization thought he was ready, and all Strasburg wanted to do was, "...come in here and help this team win ballgames," though as Dave Nichols from the Nats News Network wrote here at Federal Baseball.com, in an article entitled, "Washington Nationals Introduce Stephen Strasburg to Media; Fans Proclaim NatsTown = Stras' burg", Strasburg was, "...starting to get a taste of what his signing means to the fans of DC."

Strasburg told those present at the introductory news conference that his Coach at SDSU, former Padre great Tony Gwynn had advised him that, whether he was playing in college, the majors or the Olympics, "The game is the same," but as Strasburg learned quickly, "All of this [media, fans] is a little different." Just how different would become clear to the 21-year-old right-hander in his first workout with the team, if it hadn't been hammered home during his final college campaign, when Strasburg's first warm-up throws of the year were extensively covered. Washington Post writer Amy Shipley reported that Strasburg seemed less than comfortable with the attention. As Strasburg told the gathered media:

"'I thought I'd get a little bit of peace out here on the field, but you guys are following me everywhere,' Strasburg said later. 'It's something I guess I gotta deal with. I guess it just goes with the territory.'"

Strasburg's first Florida Instruction League outing was broadcast live on ESPN, (the first time I've ever seen such a thing...Did they do this for David Price?), and his first Arizona Fall League in a few weeks is bound to receive even more scrutiny, but Washington Nationals' GM Mike Rizzo told ESPN.com's Buster Olney, as reported in an blog post entitled, "The Tigers must address Cabrera", that all Strasburg wants is, "...to be treated like everyone else," which, Mr. Rizzo assured the pitcher, "...is not going to happen." Mr. Rizzo tells Mr. Olney what advise he's offered the young pitcher:

"'I've told him, 'You're going to be the center of attention.' He's come to grips with it, I think, and he's getting more comfortable with it. He's a very shy person -- he's good in front of the camera, but there's a shyness to him. He's got tremendous confidence in his abilities, but his attitude is like, 'I haven't thrown a pitch in the major leagues, and I'm getting all this attention; I'm kind of embarrassed by it.'"

According to the announcer in a video of highlights from Strasburg's Instructional League debut included with MLB.com's David Villavicencio's article entitled, "Strasburg sees first game action as pro", there will be one more start in Florida, before the Phoenix Desert Dogs' starter makes his Arizona Fall League debut on October 16, 2009. I wonder how many people will be there for Strasburg's second debut...

Washington Nationals: Top 5 Stories Of 2009: 5-2...

• Washington Nationals: Top 5 Stories Of 2009. No. 5...Adam Dunn Signs With DC. - Federal Baseball

"'I definitely had doubts' about signing with the Nationals,' Dunn acknowledged. 'When all this first came about, I was saying, "Man, they lost 102 games last year," and this and that. [ellipses] Coming into this offseason, I was sold on playing for a contender, playing for a team that's already proven themselves.'"

• Washington Nationals: Top 5 Stories Of 2009. No. 4...Jim Bowden Resigns. - Federal Baseball

"'My resignation is based upon my realization that my ability to properly represent the Washington Nationals has been compromised because of false allegations contained in the press. I am disappointed by the media reports regarding investigations into any of my professional activities. There have been no charges made, and there has been no indication that parties have found any wrongdoing on my part...'"

• Washington Nationals: Top 5 Stories Of 2009. No. 3...Ryan Zimmerman's Hit Streak. - Federal Baseball

"I'll tell you, it makes you appreciate how much 56 really is," Zimmerman told Washington Post writer Chico Harlan, in an article entitled, "Zimmerman's Hit Streak Ends, but Nats Get Win", after his own streak had come to an end some 26 games away from Joe DiMaggio's mark, but DiMaggio's run is just one historical achievement of many in the New York Yankees' franchise lore, while Zimmerman's was one of the first positive stories out of DC since the team moved from Montreal in 2005. "He put us on the map a little bit with what he did," then-Nationals' skipper Manny Acta told the Washington Post's Mr. Harlan.

• Washington Nationals: Top 5 Stories Of 2009. No. 2...Mike Rizzo Becomes Washington Nationals' Full-Time GM. - Federal Baseball

"Wednesday was, uh, not as good as Monday (when Washington signed Stephen Strasburg)...The information, the mis-information...was unfortunate, but, uh, it didn't effect me nearly as much as the people who knew me and were rooting for me, cause I knew on Tuesday that I had the job. The Wednesday stories were at first, it was a little comical, and then as the day drew on and it seem to kind of snowball into more of a for sure thing that I wasn't going to get the job, and uh, you know, family members and friends were a little more vocal in their displeasure..."

CC a tad shaky, just misses getting his 20th win in 13-4 loss

CrazyYankeeChick — Sat, 03 Oct 2009 05:07:46 -0000

More photos » by Chris O'Meara - AP

Yeah, we didn't want to look either.

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Was it me, or did the Yankees seem a bit off tonight?

Hard to put my finger on it exactly, but something was amiss. If I had to hazard a guess, I'd say my eyebrow started to raise when CC Sabathia let up about 8,910,266 runs in the first hour of the game.

Seriously, what can I really say about this one? To be completely honest, I didn't have the heart or stomach to chain myself to the YES network. for this one, especially with the Rangers (of the hockey persuasion) opening up tonight. The whole "had to watch, like a car wreck" concept never really made much sense to me. I don't want to see a car wreck on the highway, and I don't want to see one on the mound.

Since there are no highlights to speak of, this will be quick...

I cannot dirve this point home emphatically enough: I was 100% shellshocked that CC didn't get his 20th win. I keep rolling it around in my head until it starts to make me crazy, (which doesn't really take much)--the best team in baseball was playing a team that's been crumbling at a steady rate for the past 2 months.

They played their best starter against a rookie. A colossally dominant starter whose emaciated ERA over his last 11 starts suggested nothing less than another repeat performance. And a starter whose team run support is nearly 6 per game--the 12th highest in all league pitchers.

It never once occured to me that win #20 would escape poor CC. As the TV was nearly muted (hearing a bad game is infinitely worse than just seeing it), I didn't take note of the crowd reaction to CC's inexplicable implosion. Do the Rays have like a full-fledged fan base now? Or are they still defined by their lack of definition?

I hope no one booed him. I'm all for booing Joba Chamberlain when he gets chased in the 3rd inning, even when it's a meaningless post-clinching game. But CC deserved a win tonight (obviously, not based on his merit). But he's been a veritable hero for the Yanks all season, and I wish he had gotten it. But instead, he threw 82 pitches in a little over 2 innings, giving up 9 runs on 8 hits, only 5 of which was earned, and walking 5.

(Requisite due diligence: David Price is unbelievably good. Remarkable and special thanks go out to White Sox tonight for reducing chances of having to face the suped up turbo hi-tech model of David Price in game 1 of the ALDS.)

(Legitimate query: Did the Yanks hit their high mark with 7, in terms of the number of pitchers used in a 9-inning game this season? If so, I think part of Girardi is secretly brimming with pride. "I knew I could do it!")

The first run of the game was "manufactured" in the first inning, after our boy plugged up the bases with Evan Longoria, Carl Crawford, and Jason Bartlett, and then walked their intimidating #6 batter Gabe Kaplar (who holds the distinction of being Nick Swisher's first major league strikeout. Where was Swish when we needed him tonight??)

That was run 1. And it just got uglier from there.

Nothing--seriously, NOTHING--made sense tonight. Mark Teixeira had an error in the first inning. The top two-thirds of our elite line-up was altogether hitless on the night. All 6 of the the Yankees' hits for the night came off the bats of the bottom third. To be clear, Jeter, Tex, Hairston ARod, Swisher, and Posada were all 0-fers. Cano, Gardner, Melky, Pena, and Juan Miranda all chipped in hits.

To sum it up, you know you're in for a total cesspool of backwards subversion when Jose Molina sees what a base looks like up close.

Everything's out of your system now, though, right?

(Oh, and B.J. Upton went 5-for-5 and hit for the cycle or something.)

-CYC

Jason Hammel Trade Revisited

Poseidon's Fist — Thu, 01 Oct 2009 16:16:20 -0000

More photos » by Darren Calabrese - AP

We very nearly could have had this guy instead of Jason Hammel. Should we be happy with the guy we got?

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It's not always the blockbuster deals that build winners. In fact, it often is not. With the Rockies on the verge of the playoffs, it's a good time to reflect on one of those seemingly innocent little trades that has paid big dividends for Dan O'Dowd this season.

The Pledge

Tampa Bay entered the season with a true embarrassment of riches regarding starting pitching. James Shields, Scott Kazmir, Matt Garza and Andy Sonnanstine were locks to make the Opening Day rotation, and 2007 first overall pick David Price was a capable fifth starter at the very least.

But that left out two talented right-handers: Jeff Niemann, the fourth overall pick in 2004, and 2002 10th rounder Jason Hammel. Both had exhausted their options and would have to be traded, released or placed on waivers if they were not on the 25-man roster on Opening Day. The Rays elected to keep David Price in AAA to start the year, forcing them to move only one of the pitchers.

As Spring Training neared an end, there was no clear winner for the fifth starter role, though rumors abounded that the Rockies were hoping to trade for Hammel. Niemann was 2-1 with a 6.32 ERA over 15.1 IP in the Grapefruit League, while Hammel was 0-1 with a 3.96 ERA in 25.0 IP. However, the investment the organization had in Niemann worked in his favor.

The Turn

On the final day before the season, the Rays decided to keep their former first-rounder. They traded Hammel to the Rockies for 21-year old pitcher Aneury Rodriguez, who had pitched in High-A Modesto last season. It seemed at the time of the trade, Rowbots seemingly disliked the trade greatly, pining for Niemann instead. Granted, one season is not enough to properly evaluate a trade, but for the sake of argument, should we be happy we landed Hammel instead of a guy who was chosen behind only Matt Bush, Justin Verlander and Phillip Humber in 2004?

Join on the other side to find out.

Jason Hammel finished his season last night, though Jeff Niemann still has a scheduled start Saturday against the Yankees. Still, we'll check out the players' statistics for comparison now anyway. A cursory glance at traditional stats (W/L, ERA, WHIP) suggest Niemann was unquestionably the better pitcher this year. But take a closer look.

	W-L	IP	ERA	WHIP	FIP	tRA	K/9	K/BB	HR/9	BABIP	GB/FB	wFB	wSL	wCB	WAR	Value
2009 - Jason Hammel	10-8	174.2	4.38	1.39	3.73	4.24	6.75	3.12	0.88	.337	1.51	(10.8)	(1.4)	13.4	3.8	$17.2M

	W-L	IP	ERA	WHIP	FIP	tRA	K/9	K/BB	HR/9	BABIP	GB/FB	wFB	wSL	wCB	WAR	Value
2009 - Jeff Niemann	12-6	175.2	3.94	1.35	4.09	4.67	6.15	2.07	0.87	.301	1.01	9.7	(1.7)	0.2	3.0	$13.4

The Prestige

Hammel has a better FIP, tRA and WAR. More clearly, he strikes out more and walks les. Quite frankly, the only reason his WHIP and ERA seem higher is due to a much higher batting average on balls in play.

What's fascinating about Hammel though, is that he not only matches up with Niemann extraordinarily well, not only is he arguably the best fifth starter in the game this season, but he ranks near the top of the league in a couple important peripheral statistics.

One knock against Hammel coming to Coors Field was his propensity to give up the long ball, but it just hasn't been a problem with Colorado. The Rockies won 12 of his 15 Coors Field starts and his 0.88 HR/9 is fantastic for a Rockies pitcher - indeed, it is 17th best in the National League. He also has the sixth best curveball value in MLB and accrued the 25th most WAR among all MLB starting pitchers, 14th in the NL. Arguably most exciting, he has the 14th best GB/FB ratio in the bigs. That's a heck of an effort from a guy that couldn't crack two rotations out of spring training.

Now, before anyone messes their pants, I am obliged to point out a couple caveats to these statistics, at least those in comparison to Niemann. Even though Hammel has been forced to pitch at Coors Field, he also has gotten the benefit of Dodger Stadium and PetCo Park, the league's top two pitcher's parks. Niemann, meanwhile, also pitches in a hitter's park, but in his division, only the Toronto Blue Jays play in a park with a factor below 100, and that's just 98/99.

In addition, there is no greater difference in offensive inter-division skill than between the NL West and AL East. Niemann most assuredly has been facing stiffer competition in the opposing batter's box, and on a level playing field, he would grade out probably fairly evenly if not slightly better than Hammel. But at this point, it's essentially like asking whether you'd prefer steak or lobster, at least relative to league average fifth starters. My appetite tends to pitchers with strong GB/FB rates, so even if Niemann and Hammel are essentially even, we got the best guy for Coors Field. In case price is your deciding factor, Hammel made $422k this year, while Niemann received $650k from the Rays.

As for Aneury Rodriguez, it's still too early to guess whether he was too much to give for Hammel. He could conceivably become an ace, though as Rox Girl said in April, "Aneury's ceiling is Jason Hammel" before Hammel's ceiling raised a little this year.

Rodriguez scuffled a little bit when the trade brought a promotion to AA Montgomery, but he adjusted and rebounded well, posting ERAs under 2.60 in June and July. The jury will be out for a few more years, but just for now, here's his AA stats this season.

AA Montgomery	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Aneury Rodriguez	9-11	27	27	0	0	0	0	142.0	121	78	71	17	59	111	4.50	1.26

Will it be a good trade when it's all said and done? Who knows...Aneury and Niemann could become monsters and Hammel's arm could fall off, but as for this year, it looks fantastic. There has been plenty of publicity about Dan O'Dowd's shrewd trade to pick up Jason Marquis, but at just 0.1 WAR below Marquis, there's another Jason trade that ought to help Dan O'Dowd become a finalist for Executive of the Year.