SB Nation - James Skelton

2009 Draftee Report Card, Part Three: Outfielders and Catchers

Zephon — Wed, 02 Dec 2009 18:00:07 -0000

The Diamondbacks entered the 2009 draft with 4 extra draft picks in the first round and the 1/2 sandwich round, and came out of the draft with 37 out of 55 picks signed. Kieth Law ranked the D-backs as having the best draft in 2009, and other reviews of the Diamondbacks' draft have been positive as well. With so many quality players signed, this draft certainly has the potential to be best draft the Diamondbacks have had in their short history, and the team had a nice balance of high-upside high school talent and safer college picks at each stage of the draft. In this series of articles, we're going to take a look at each signed draftee's debut season, and see how they performed. If a scouting report on a player is available, we'll also take a look at that.

For week three of our 5 part prospect extravaganza we're looking at outfielders and catchers. I know someone is going to ask why we chose to stick the outfielders with the catchers, so I guess i should explain. The Dbacks just didn't draft all that many outfielders or catchers, so we chose to put them together to make the articles even in size. Next week we're looking at the first half of the whopping 19 pitchers the organization selected and subsequently signed. Then, when we're all done with the five weeks of '09 additions, both of us will offer our respective 2010 Amateur-opinion Diamondbacks top prospect lists.

The grades we used in this article are relative to the league average statistics and the average age of the players in the league that the player was in. In addition, each player's draft position and personal strengths and weaknesses are taken into account (i.e. how they were supposed to do). It's best to remember that the draft is generally a crap-shoot - you can never know which guys will make it and which won't. Some players' careers may be lost to injuries, others just may never be able to make the adjustments to the more advanced levels of hitting or pitching. If two or three players out of a draft become solid major leaguers, the draft is generally thought a success.

It's not that uncommon for a team to have a draft where none of the players drafted have any significant impact on the major league club (just ask Pittsburgh). It happens. It's why the draft is 50 rounds long and teams have 25 players on their big-league rosters. If one major league player out of this draft became an all-star and a handful of them became regular big-league players, the organization got a good haul. So when you see these grades, imagine that they're in a perfect world, where there's no injuries, and players don't regress. These are absolute best-case scenarios. We can't predict the future.

When you discuss outfielders for the Diamondbacks, the great trio the Snakes trotted out in the 2001 World Series season has to be mentioned immediately - Luis Gonzalez in left, Steve Finley in center, and Reggie Sanders, who we let leave the following offseason, in right. Prior to the arrival of the 2009 Turbo-Charged Justin Upton, these three were arguably (with the debate between Sanders and Danny Bautista being a toss-up) the best players the Diamondbacks had ever had at the three respective positions. Runners-up to the Big Three include Shawn Green, Bautista, Jose Guillen, and Devon White.

Ever heard of Chris Jones, Hensley Meulens, and Matt Mieske? We thought not. Well, they're also just a small sampling of the numerous unheard-of outfielders the D-Backs have trotted out in their short history. And for 2010 we have a promising group of young outfielders, with the likely starters being that aforementioned 22-year-old guy named Upton in right, 26-year-old Chris Young in center, and a platoon of 26-year-old Conor Jackson and 22-year-old Gerardo Parra in left. And there's a healthy competition for the fifth outfield spot quietly stirring between Alex Romero, Cole Gillespie, and the one man almost nobody wants to see remain in a Diamondbacks uniform, Eric Byrnes.

So the major-league outfield appears set for quite a while, and it's a good thing that it is, as there really isn't much talent other than Gillespie in the upper-levels of the minors ready to fill in. AAA, if Gillespie is headed to the major-league roster, will contain no outfielders of note, unless Romero, Cyle Hankerd, and Chris Rahl put a banana in your pants. AA will be where some of the higher-upside guys in the system start next season, most noteably Collin Cowgill and Ollie "Lightning" Linton, of completely different skill sets, but equally potent. Cowgill is a good power hitter despite his 5'9'' frame, and can get on base. Linton has almost no home run power, although he used his ridiculous speed to accumulate 28 doubles and a whopping 10 triples last season, reached base at a .394 mark, and stole 28 bases. Further, Linton's speed makes him a plus defender in center, and he plays with the kind of reckless abandon that fans used to love about Byrnes.

They may ready for the majors just in the nick of time, as Cowgill, a more advanced hitter than Linton, could step in to backup/platoon with Parra when Co-Jack is a free agent in 2012, and Linton could be ready to start when CY is a free agent in 2014 (team has option for 2015 season). But the team clearly didn't want to count on Cowgill has their only plan to replace Jackson, especially given the questions surrounding whether or not Jackson will return to his old levels of production, so it decided to use a few of its earlier picks in the draft on college outfielders with advanced bats and tool sets who could rise quickly and provide insurance for the outfield. Then, to add a high-risk, high-reward outfield prospect to the lower ranks of the system, the team picked tool-shed Keon Broxton after solidifying the quick-rising ranks of the system.

Now, to move on to the catchers. While usually a difficult position to solidify for many years, catcher has been a fairly stable position for the Diamondbacks throughout their history. While we haven't had enough luck to find a Jorge Posada or Joe Mauer with a plus bat for the position for a dozen years, and we played too well last season to bank on Bryce Harper in the 2010 draft, we have been able to get six years (and counting, for now) from Chris Snyder, five years from Damian Miller, four years from Kelly Stinnett (although in two stints with the team, from '98-'00 and '05), and one real stop-gap starter in Johnny Estrada. Further, we've even received some good consistency with backups, from Robby Hammock to Rod Barajas to Chad Moeller. And, even though Snyder's clock in Arizona may be winding down, it appears that we have ourselves set at the position for many years once again with Miguel Montero's breakout season and a good cameo from John Hester, who appears to be a fairly capable backup for years to come.

So, even though the system lacks any real high-upside catchers outside of 20-year-old Rossmel Perez, especially with the lackluster seasons just put in by former Sandwich-round pick Ed Easley and Rule 5 draftee James Skelton, the team didn't need to spend a high pick on a backstop. However, it is important to note that minor-league catchers are very important commodities. It is in the minor leagues that catchers begin to actually call games for pitchers, and the way a catcher handles a top prospect pitcher may have a huge impact on that pitcher's development. Therefore, it is crucial to have a solid group of organizational catchers who can call a good game for your pitchers and utilize each pitcher's strengths. So, while the team had the opportunity to address other organizational needs first, it chose to select Tyson Van Winkle in the tenth round, and signed two catchers taken in the eighteenth and forty-fourth rounds, respectively.

Round 1, Pick 17 - A.J. Pollock

Born: December 5, 1987 in Hebron, Connecticut School: University of Notre Dame Height: 6'1'' Weight: 200LBs Position: Center Field Bats: Right Throws: Right

Mid-A South Bend: ABs: 255 AVG/OBP/SLG: .271/.319/.376 XBH: 12 2Bs/3 3B/3 HRs K:BB: 36:16 ISO: .106 BABIP: .306 SB:CS 10:4 Errors: 1

Zephon: Pollock was one of our "safe" picks at 17 overall, a college bat that's should move quickly through the minors. Pollock is considered one of the better pure college hitters in this draft. He's a gap to gap line drive hitter who won't hit a ton of homers, maybe 10 to 15 at most. However, he does make up for that with his speed on the base paths. As he gets more experience he should become an excellent stolen base threat. Since he's recently converted from shortstop to the outfield, he still has a lot to learn defensively , but he should end up being a plus defender. Pollock got off to a slow start, heated up in July, had a poor August, and then had an excellent September to finish the year. Although his on base percentage isn't all that great, he does have a pretty solid 2:1 strike out to walk ratio. Pollock's slugging percentage was really dragged down by the miserable August. Overall, I think Pollock had a pretty solid debut, and I think it'll be interesting to see how he does next year in (most likely) Visalia. Grade: C+ (Short-term: C, Long-term: B)

IHSB: The way to describe the first pro season for the most oddly named man alive (Allen Lorenz Pollock = A.J. Pollock?) is solid but unspectacular, which is disappointing given that the organization expected him to rip through Mid-A South Bend given that Midwest League Competition wasn't foreign to Pollock, given that Notre Dame plays an exhibition game against the SilverHawks at the beginning of each season. He’ll nevertheless rise to Visalia because the organization wants to push him through quickly after a standout career and Notre Dame, and his age requires this for his top-prospect standing. Still a top-ten guy for the organization with his tools (speed, good contact bat, fielding, decent arm, light power) and occasional encouraging flashes of brilliance, but needs to show more consistency (or maybe some BABIP regression - his number for South Bend was .303, which, given his speed, may be low for Pollock), especially since the California League, which he’ll be entering, is a hitter’s paradise (although not quite to the proportions of the PCL). The acquisition of Tony Abreu likely means that the middle infield of the future is jammed up with Abreu, Taylor Harbin, and Pedro Ciriaco, so the once-possible move to second-base, which, in my unprofessional opinion, would have made Pollock's bat more valuable and saved outfield spots for power hitters, Justin Upton, and Chris Young's contract, now becomes nearly a complete a non-possibility unless the team starts to clear a couple prospects for major-leaguers at next year's or 2011's trade deadline. Good news with the stay in the outfield for Pollock is that his defense there is plus, as can be derived from his tool set. It can be thought of this way: you can get a plus bat with solid defense at second, or a solid bat with plus defense in center field. Grade: C+ (Short-term: C, Long-term: B-)

Round 2, Pick 64 - Marc Krauss

Born: October 5, 1987 in Deshler, Ohio School: Ohio U Height: 6'3'' Weight: 235 Position: Left Field Bats: Left Throws: Right

Mid-A South Bend: ABs: 115 AVG/OBP/SLG: .304/.377/.478 XBH: 12 2Bs/1 3B/2 HRs K:BB: 21:14 ISO: .174 BABIP: .359 Errors: 1

Zephon: With Justin Upton manning right field for as long as we can hopefully hold on to him, and Chris Young signed till 2013, left field is going to have a lot of guys competing for the job the next few years until someone completely locks down the position. Unfortunately for Marc Krauss, there's already Conor Jackson, Gerardo Parra, and A.J. Pollock ahead of him competing for the job. In addition, that doesn't even factor in a guy like Keon Broxton who's less projectionable, or guys like Borchering who may end up getting moved to the outfield. Getting past that, Marc Krauss put up a very nice season in South Bend, with an above average batting, on base, slugging, and isolated slugging percentages. I'd like to see a few more homers out of him next season honestly, all though I don't mind a high BA doubles hitter (see Conor Jackson). He's got a very solid almost 3:2 K:BB ratio, not too many strikeouts. For the season, Krauss was 21, a touch younger than league average. Hopefully he'll be able to move through the system quickly. Grade B+ (Short term: B Long Term: B+)

IHSB: There were two big concerns about Marc Krauss going into his first professional season. First was how he would handle the transition from aluminum bats and crappy, in-conference pitching to wood bats and good, professional-level pitching. Welp (misspelling intended for dramaticish effect), so much for that little dilemma. Second was where, and how well, could he play defense. Sadly, that one still hasn't been quite figured out. Nonetheless, he raked in his time in Mid-A fresh out of college, so it wouldn't be at all far-fetched if he ends up mashing the hitter-friendly California League and ends up in Mobile by the end of next season. Still, it's in cases like this where being an American League team would be really helpful. Especially since the position it appears he is most likely going to end up playing, left field (since right field is currently and hopefully forever-ly manned by a man named Upton), is home to Conor Jackson and Gerardo Parra (who is only going to be 23 next season to Krauss' 22) in the majors and guys like Cole Gillespie, Collin Cowgill, and South Bend teammate A.J. Pollock in the minors. Could definitely see this being a high-quality bat used as a trade chip in a year or two. Grade: B- (Short-term B, Long-term: C+)

Round 3, Pick 95 - Keon Broxton

Born: May 07, 1990 in Lakeland, Florida School: Santa Fe (Fla.) CC Height: 6'3'' Weight: 187 Position: Center Field Bats: Rights Throws: Right

Rookie-level Missoula: 272abs AVG/OBP/SLG: .246/.302/.474 XBH: 11 2B/9 3B/11 HRs K:BB: 93:19 ISO: .228 BABIP: .333 SB:CS: 6:1 Errors: 4

Zephon: First, I must note that Keon Broxton is NOT related to the Dodgers reliever. Keon Broxton is a player I'm probably a little too high on. I seem to always end up loving players that share my birthday(See Conor Jackson). Broxton is a multi-tooled outfielder who was raw but fast-improving during his junior college season. Physical comparisons have ranged from Rondell White to Matt Kemp. His strike zone judgement is sketchy, but it's obvious from his numbers that he not only has some serious power, but some serious wheels as well. I think this guy is definitely a diamond in the rough. As IHSB notes, he's basically Chris Young. If this guy figures out the strike zone, he could be something special. Take a look at his XBH numbers, especially the ridiculous 9 triples. Then look at his excellent .228 ISO. This is a guy I think you should be keeping an eye on over the next couple years. Grade: B (Short Term: B Long term: B+)

IHSB: Although it's worth noting that Zephon has a moderately unwarranted solid man-crush on Keon Broxton, it's not like Keon Broxton is bad. Quite the contrary - he plays a solid center field, has wheels, hits for power, and strikes out a ton. That's right, ladies and gentlemen, we've found Chris Young again. He's just 19 years old, just finished slugging all over the Pioneer League, and will definitely be in line for a slow path through Yakima next season to work on those on-base skills. It'll take a lot of work, but if this guy figures out that his bat doesn't need to go below his knees or above the letters, he'll do some special things. Grade: B+ (Short-term: B, Long-Term: B+)

Round 10, pick 306 - Tyson Van Winkle

Born: February 2, 1988 In Vancouver, Washington School: Gonzaga Height: 6'1'' Weight: 190 Position: Catcher Bats: Right Throws: Right

Low-A Yakima: ABs: 156 AVG/OBP/SLG: .244/.367/.308 XBH: 10 2B K:BB: 35:25 ISO: .064 BABIP: .314 SB:CS 4:2

Mid-A South Bend: ABs: 17 AVG/OBP/SLG: .059/.111/.059 XBH: None K:BB: 2:1 ISO: .000 BABIP: .067

Zephon: First I have to say it: Tyson Van Winkle is a funny name. Now to the analysis. At first glance, Tyson had a relatively mediocre season, but he did have two bright spots: His on base percentage in Yakima was 123 points higher than his batting average, and his strike out to walk ratio is a pretty decent 7:5 ratio. I'm not even going to bothering discussing his time in South Bend, other than the fact that it appears he was the victim of extremely bad luck, sporting a BABIP of .067. Winkle is the highest drafted catcher in the Dbacks' 09 draft. With the offensive skillset he's shown, i would think he'd best succeed as a defense first catcher in the mold of Chris Snyder, a guy who can draw walks and maybe hit for a little pop, although the latter he has yet to show. Grade: C (Short term: C- Long term C)

IHSB: 17 at-bats is too few to make any judgment on, so people should only bother to look at the Yakima numbers. From those numbers, we find one thing that Van Winkle needs to really improve upon in order to make himself a solid catching prospect. He needs to find some sort of power that can make him into an OPS "Moneyball" guy (hearkening to Oakland GM Billy Beane's book about deeper statistical analysis of baseball players, although the original definition of a "Moneyball" guy has been stretched to be anybody with a high OPS and low BA), the type of player that casual fans will hate because he'll have low batting averages, but the type of guy that the stat nerds (like me) will like because he gets the job done without making a whole lot of contact. And, of course, he needs to know how to handle a pitching staff. However, the Diamondbacks have historically been good at developing good defensive/game-managing catchers (see Chris Snyder, Rod Barajas). This makes the biggest question the Van Winkle's power, which is crucial to his development. Without power, Van Winkle flops, no questions asked. Grade: C- (Short-term C-, Long-term: C-)

Round 18, Pick 546 - Roidany Aguila

Born:10/22/1990 in Guaynabo, Puerto Rico School: Colegio Nuestra Senora de la Providencia HS Height: 5'10'' Weight: 175 Position: Catcher Bats: Right Throws: Right

Rookie-level Missoula: 13 ABS AVG/OBP/SLG: .000/.000/000 XBH: 0 ISO: BABIP: .000 K:BB 6:0

Low-A Yakima: 42 ABs AVG/OBP/SLG: .119/.156/.143 XBH: 1 double ISO: .034 BABIP .172 K:BB 13:1

Zephon: I won't bother with a grade for this one. Roidany Aguila did absolutely nothing in his 57 ABS. Even if he raked in those at bats, it wouldn't mean much, since it's such a small sample size. It does he appear that he was a victim of bad luck with a BABIP of 000 in Missoula, and BABIP of .172 in Yakima. The big positive for Aguila his age. He was 18 during the whole season, and only turned 19 after the season ended. Latin American prospects tend to be quite raw, and seem to take a while to develop, but Aquila does have youth on his side. Grade: Incomplete

IHSB: Nothing else to say here that Zephon didn't already. 57 ABs is too few, but the kid has time. Young catching prospects are always intruiging, but, especially coming from Latin America and having a position that requires a good relationship with the pitching staff, lots of development is a must. Grade: Incomplete

Round 26, Pick 786 - Daniel Kaczrowski

Born: 06/17/1987 in St. Anthony, MN School: Hamline U Height: 5'9'' Weight: 170 Position: Left Field Bats: Right Throws: Right

Low-A Yakima: 274ABS AVG/OBP/SLG: .266/.345/.343 XBH: 16 doubles, 1 triple, 1 homerun ISO: .077 K:BB 42:28 BABIP: .312 SB:CS 12:3

Zephon: Another one of the 'owskis selected by the Dbacks this year, and another one I'm rooting for purely based on his last name. In college Kaczrowski was a shortstop, but after signing with the Dbacks, Kaczrowski was moved to the outfield. I'm not sure if the move was permanent, or just to get him playing time, but it does reduce the value of his offense. Looking at his offensive statistics, there really isn't that much to say. The batting average isn't bad, but it's not that good. His on base percentage is pretty decent considering the low batting average, and his strike out to walk ratio is a respectable 4:3. In addition, all though his power numbers aren't that great, Kazcrowski makes up for it a bit with his excellent 80 percent success rate on the base paths. If Kaczrowski doesn't develop more power, he's going to have to succceed at the major league level by basically being the good version of Juan Pierre: a guy who hits for contact, draws a lot of walks, and swipe lots of bags. If he could get moved back to the infield, he'd be worth a lot more, but who know if that's even an option. Grade: C (Short term: C Long term: C-)

IHSB: Doesn't have the bat to make in the outfield, so even though it's where he played this year, he'll likely be found in the middle infielders section when it comes time to check back in on these guys. I can only speculate that the 5'9'' Kaczrowski was put in the outfield because, of the plethora of middle infielders that the Osprey had available to it, Kaczrowski was the one that the team has the least invested in, as he's a 26th round pick. However, given

his draft spot, putting up an OPS just shy of .700 while probably uncomfortable playing out of position is pretty solid. Another guy whose career goal is to be Augie Ojeda, the fact that the team is juggling him around the diamond already is absolutely detrimental to the part of his game he needs to focus on the most, his defense. It's a bit of shame when a team's handling of a player has a negative impact on the player's development, but in this case, given the sheer quantity of middle infielders covered last week, it's understandable that Kaczrowski was juggled. Grade: B- (Short-term: B, Long-term: C)

Round 44, Pick 1326 - Zach Varnell

Born: 06/25/1986 Pine Bluff, AR School:: U Arkansas Pine Bluff Height: 6'1'' Weight: 200 Position: Catcher Bats: Right Throws: Right

Low-A Yakima: 37abs AVG/OBP/SLG: .108/.267/.135 XBH: 1 double K:BB: 20:8

Zephon: The very last pick to sign with the Diamondbacks was Zach Varnell, a catcher out of Arkansas. There's really not all that much to say about the guy, as he had a pretty poor debut season. I think the only thing worth mentioning is the fact that his on base percentage is 159 points higher than his batting average, and he does have a pretty decent 2 to 1 strike out to walk ratio. Other than that, there's not a whole lot of a positives for this guy. He'll more than likely end up being minor league organizational filler, all though then again, there's been some other catchers that teams have signed in the last round that have turned out pretty well... Grade: Incomplete. And Pointless.

IHSB: There's a reason that Varnell was picked later than any other kid we signed - he's an organizational guy. Catchers are always valuable commodities, as mentioned in the introduction, and that's what Varnell is here for. The bat is pretty much irrelevant, as we can't have any real expectations of him ever reaching the major leagues. All we can honestly hope for is for Varnell to handle the pitching staff of Yakima, South Bend, or wherever the heck the team decides to put him (it really doesn't matter) well. And since I have no information on how Varnell handles a pitching staff, there is no grade that I feel I can assign here. Grade: Incomplete (and Irrelevant)

The Diamondbacks seem to be pretty set in the outfield with Justin Upton, Chris Young, Conor Jackson, Gerardo Parra, and Cole Gillespie. However, there's still some concern about Chris Young's offense, and Conor Jackson will be a free agent in 2012. Although the outfield is not the most pressing of needs for the Diamondbacks at the major league level, in the minors there's a lack of impact talent, so they took two promising (and hopefully fast moving) college bats in A.J. Pollock and Marc Krauss. In addition they added a high ceiling, toolsy and young raw prospect in Keon Broxton. Daniel Kaczrowski was drafted as a shortstop and will most likely end up being moved back to the middle infield next year.

Moving onto the catching position, the Diamondbacks seem to be pretty set with Miguel Montero, Chris Snyder (who will most likely be moved during this offseason), and John Hester at the major league level. While the team had the opportunity to address other organizational needs first, it chose to select Tyson Van Winkle in the tenth round, and signed two catchers taken in the eighteenth and forty-fourth rounds, respectively. Tyson Van Winkle has a chance to be a high OPS catcher in the vein of Chris Snyder; 18th rounder Roidany Aguila is a young Latin American talent that is a total wild card, and Zach Varnell fills the need for an organizational catcher.

Next week we'll begin looking at the whopping 19 pitchers taken in the draft, starting with pitchers A through Hale. Before we close, I, Zephon, would just like to once again make note of the resources we used to create this series of articles: Milb.com, Fangraphs.com, and Baseball-Reference.com; plus a special thanks to Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic and emilylovesthedbacks for doing the final edits to the article. I'd also like to thank IHateSouthBend for collaborating with me on these articles. With out him, this series of articles wouldn't be possible, and wouldn't be nearly as good... So thanks dude. And to the everyone else on Snakepit, I'd just like to thank you all for the positive feedback you've given us so far. Thanks for reading, and stay tuned next week for part three!

Morning Prowl: Guillen's Rehab Debut, Following Fox Sports Detroit, Talking to Lynn Henning, and the Detroit Tigers Podcast Signs Off

Ian Casselberry — Tue, 14 Jul 2009 13:45:50 -0000

Carlos Guillen began his minor league assignment in Lakeland last night, going 0-for-3 as the designated hitter. Guillen led off for the Flying Tigers, which I assume was so he could get as many at-bats as possible. He was replaced for a pinch-hitter in the eighth inning.

Billfer of The Detroit Tigers Weblog got to spend last Friday hanging out with the Fox Sports Detroit crew, watching them go about their business of televising a Tigers baseball game. If you've ever wondered just how much work goes into the broadcasts we watch every night, you'll surely find this interesting.

Part 1 of Bill's account is up now, which includes a tour of the production truck, a chat with John Keating, and talks to Mario Impemba and Rod Allen about their pre-game preparations. Part 2, covering the actual game telecast, is soon to come, probably on Wednesday. (I'm hoping he dishes some dirt on Ryan Field's hair.)

Mack Avenue Tigers laughs at the notion of taking a break during this All-Star break, with plenty of good stuff to read during baseball's mid-season hiatus. Yesterday, he talked to Take 75 North's Matt Wallace about Scott Sizemore's development, future Tigers to look out for, and whether or not the organization has the juice to make a big trade.

Today, Kurt talks to the Detroit News' Lynn Henning about his work covering the Tigers, how he and Tom Gage split their duties for the paper, his professional relationships with the players he covers, and embracing the internet revolution. The man also seems to appreciate having a beer, which I think many of us can raise a glass to.

Why are the Tigers playing so much better at home (27-13) than on the road (21-26)? Lee breaks down the numbers at Tiger Tales, and finds that the answers are rather simple (though the "why" of it remains elusive).

Mike McClary is pulling the plug on The Detroit Tigers Podcast three episodes short of 100. I'm sorry to hear about his decision, both as a listener of the show and a frequent guest, but certainly understand (and sympathize) with Mike's reasons for doing so. Unfortunately, this leaves a rather gaping hole in the Tigersosphere going into the second half of the season.

The Daily Fungo lives on, however, as Mike points out that James Skelton was demoted to Single-A Visalia by the Diamondbacks last week.

Danny Knobler laments the demoliiton of the Tiger Stadium press box (where he worked for 10 of his 18 years on the Tigers beat) after looking at this MLive.com slideshow of what's left of the old ballpark.

Fire Jim Leyland has an idea for the Tigers' third base situation next year: Move Brandon Inge to short, and sign Adrian Beltre (who could be available at a bargain) to take over at third. A bold assertion, but Mike certainly makes his case well, while acknowledging that the Tigers more than likely won't do this.

My take is that Inge has certainly earned an entrenchment at third base for the final year of his contract next season, and I also wonder if Beltre is the third base equivalent of Brady Anderson. (Though I definitely agree that he's fantastic defensively, and his offensive numbers are more than respectable.)

Also from Knobler: Was the whole "Bran-Torino" thing Shane Victorino's idea? He didn't come up with the slogan, but apparently suggested that the Phillies and Tigers team up to make a push for the two players who initially began the Final Vote in second place.

Motor City Bengals lists a variety of relievers, starting pitchers, and bats that could be available as we near the trade deadline, though several of those names might fetch a bigger price tag than the Tigers are likely willing to pay at this point.

Finally, a reader from Lone Star Ball will be visiting Detroit in early August as part of his annual baseball road trip (I'm so envious), and is hoping for some suggestions for places to eat and things to check out while he's in the area. Please pass your ideas along.

D-backs to the Future: week ending May 27th

Jim McLennan — Thu, 28 May 2009 11:00:16 -0000

They say that which doesn’t kill you, only makes you stronger. Well in that case our bullpen must be stronger than ever right now. I don’t know how you survived the last two games, but overall it’s been a great week for the big league club, and as you’re about to see, a good week for our minor league affiliates. Since I’ll be out of town tomorrow, I’m writing this on Wednesday and I’ll ask Jim to post it tomorrow. So, on to another minor league report! Leave a comment if you like it, I hate to think I’m wasting my time writing these if no one’s reading.
-- Paqs

Reno Aces

The Aces have been ace-like this week, losing on Thursday before winning five straight behind strong pitching and the return of Josh Whitesell. Their record is 20-25 and they are out of the cellar in their division, 7.5 games back of Sacramento.

At the plate:

Whitesell picked up where he left off, hitting 9-22 with 4 walks and only three strikeouts since he got back. His line for the year now is .367/.478/.523 (wOBA+ 127) and he’s on a four game multi hit streak.
Alex Romero has put together a 7 game hitting streak, improving his line to .324/.393/.459 with 19 walks and only 17 strikeouts.

On the mound:

Bryan Augenstein got his first career AAA start and allowed four runs in six innings, striking out five and walking just one.
Cesar Valdez worked his third consecutive great start, allowing two runs in six innings with five strikeouts and two walks. He allowed four runs in his last three starts combined (17.1 IP). His ERA is now down to 5.08 after being in double digits a few weeks ago.
After a rocky start to his AAA career, Hector Ambriz had his second consecutive great start, going seven innings, allowing two runs with seven strikeouts and a walk. His ERA is down to 4.84.
Travis Blackley continues to impress out of the bullpen, tossing five scoreless innings with six strikeouts and no walks this week. Observe this split: 5 starts, 21.2 innings, 20 runs, 8.31 ERA versus 6 relief appearances, 17 innings, 4 runs, 18:2 strikeout to walk ratio! I think Blackley found his niche.

Mobile Baybears

The Bears (I can’t even type this without thinking of the SNL skit :) are rolling as well, losing two games before going on a four game winning streak to up their record to 26-20, 5.5 games out of the division lead. They did it mostly with pitching, allowing only four runs total in their four wins.

At the plate:

Cyle Hankerd is showing no signs of slowing down, with two three-hit games last week to improve his line to .360/.419/.525. Ideally, you’d want more than 10 walks from him, but I guess there’s nothing wrong with his eye if his OPS is .944
Orlando Mercado keeps hitting well, slugging his first homer of the year last night and going 6-14 on the week to improve his line to .312/.389/.462
James Skelton is steadily turning his season around, going 6-14 with five walks and two doubles to improve to .225/.384/.283. His batting average isn’t much, but it will rise with his BABIP which is currently some 100 points below his career line. On the plus side, he leads the system with 31 walks and he cut his strikeout rate by half this season. I like the guy!

On the mound:

The good news about Jarrod Parker is that he allowed 1 run in each of his last three starts to lower his ERA to 2.52. The bad news is he walked 11 batters in 14.2 innings and couldn’t go past the fifth inning in any of the games. Still, if he’s struggling by allowing one run in games, I’ll take that.
Barry Enright has been remarkably consistent this year, not allowing more than three earned runs in any of his nine starts. He had his best start of the year on Monday, throwing 5.1 shutout innings to lower his ERA to 3.49.
Dan Schlereth showed improved control this week, throwing 2.2 innings while walking just one and striking out three. He has 19 strikeouts and 11 walks in 18 innings, with an ERA of 1.50

Visalia Rawhide

Visalia went 2-3 this week, keeping their division lead at 2 games with a 28-17 record. They had a slow week at the plate, scoring just two runs in their three losses.

At the plate:

Kyle Greene belted two homers last week, and he leads the team with 6 on the season. His line is .272/.339/.450

On the mound:

Josh Collmenter threw 7 shutout innings on Thursday to lower his ERA to 3.86 on the season, after allowing three or more runs in five straight starts.
Trevor Harden had his best start since getting promoted to Visalia, throwing 7 innings of one run ball, with three strikeouts and one walk. His ERA is 3.26 in 19.1 innings.

South Bend Silver Hawks

The Hawks also went 2-3 for the week, playing a number of rain shortened games. Their record is 21-22, good for fourth place in the division, 7.5 games back of the lead.

At the plate:

Brendan Duffy hit 6-17 with 2 triples and 2 walks last week and he leads the team in all the triple slash stats with .333/.427/.440. At 24 he is way too old for this level though.
After a very slow start to the season, Alfredo Marte is starting to turn his season around. He is on a 6 game hitting streaking, hitting 7-22 with a homer and four walks on the week to improve his line to .275/.326/.413. He is very athletic but needs to become more selective at the plate.

On the mound:

Wade Miley had a good start last night, allowing one run in six innings with seven strikeouts and a walk. He has a 3.61 ERA on the year, with 38 strikeouts and only 8 walks in 47.1 innings pitched.
Brett Moorehouse has been quietly impressive this year, not allowing more than three earned runs in a start. He had his best start on Friday, allowing 2 runs in a career-high eight innings, with four strikeouts and a walk. His ERA on the year is 3.46

That’s all for this week!

Catching Prospects: Pop-guns and Bazookas

erik — Wed, 08 Apr 2009 14:00:12 -0000

Last week* I covered the top position player prospects and their defense, but I wasn't really sure what to do with catchers. Quantifying catcher defense is still rather nebulous, as there's a lot of factors that are tricky to weigh. There are a couple of things that we know catchers are (mostly) responsible for, which would be controlling the running game and blocking balls.

Charted below are the top catching prospects in the game. The categories are pretty self-explanatory, but let's touch on them quickly. There is the amount of innings they caught, the stolen base percentage they allowed, stolen base attempts per inning, stolen bases per inning and passed balls per inning.

Attempts per inning is a good way to gauge a catcher's reputation. If word is out to minor league managers that the guy behind the plate has a cannon of an arm, they'll run less. On the flip side, if the scouting report says the catcher has a noodle of a throwing arm, they will let their guys run at will. In order to equalize reputation with results, there is stolen bases per inning.

I wanted to include wild pitches + passed balls per nine innings but instead settled for passed balls per inning. The difference between passed balls and wild pitches can be arbitrary; one official scorer's wild pitch is another scorer's passed ball. I opted to punt wild pitches because I found the lower I went into the minors, the more wild pitches there seemed to be. Another road block was that while I could find league averages for passed balls, I was unsuccessful finding wild pitches.

	Org	Level	Innings	SB%	ATT/I	SB/I	PB/I
Matt Wieters	BAL	A+/AA	742.6	59%	12%	4.6%	.004
Carlos Santana	CLE	A+/AA	850.3	75%	13.6%	10.2%	.016
Jesus Montero	NYY	A	591.7	75.5%	16.6%	12.5%	.019
J.P. Arencibia	TOR	A+/AA	874.3	68.3%	9.4%	6.4%	.017
Lou Marson	PHI	AA	735.7	66.7%	10.2%	6.8%	.006
Wilson Ramos	MIN	A+	619	58.7%	10.2%	5.9%	.008
Taylor Teagarden	TEX	AA/AAA	575.3	65%	10.4%	6.7%	.005
Max Ramirez	TEX	AA/AAA	409.7	77.6%	15.4%	12.7%	.012
Tyler Flowers	CWS	A+	721.7	74.8%	18.7%	14%	.015
Angel Salome	MIL	AA	667	76.9%	16.2%	12.4%	.019
Bryan Anderson	STL	AA/AAA	724.3	67%	13.4%	9%	.014
Austin Romine	NYY	A	444	82.4%	20.5%	16.9%	.041
Jon Lucroy	MIL	A/A+	818	57.7%	13.6%	7.8%	.012
Adam Moore	SEA	AA	898.3	67.2%	12.2%	8.2%	.026
Cole Armstrong	CWS	AA/AAA	780.4	72.5%	8.9%	6.4%	.012
Welington Castillo	CHC	A+/AA	674.3	75%	9.5%	7.1%	.030
Michael McKenry	COL	A+	801.7	52.6%	9.7%	5.1%	.012
Devin Mesoraco	CIN	A	614.3	82.3%	15.6%	12.9%	.023
John Jaso	TB	AA/AAA	803.6	81.3%	16.3%	12.9%	.009
James Skelton	AZ	A+/AA	646.6	61.4%	8.8%	5.4%	.017
Pablo Sandoval	SFG	A+/AA	681.3	63.8%	8.4%	5.4%	.007

For some context, here are the averages at each level of the minors. Catchers as a group improve at each level. Base-stealers also get a little more selective on how often they run as they move up.

LEV	SB	CS	SB%	ATT/I	SB/I	PB/I
AAA	3090	1327	70.00%	11.50%	8.00%	.012
AA	3053	1461	67.60%	11.90%	8.00%	.013
A+	3753	1728	68.50%	14.60%	10.00%	.018
A	3993	1761	69.40%	15.40%	10.70%	.017

Whether or not these players can handle their position is a very big deal, as there are few catchers athletic enough to handle another position other than first base. The exceptions are few and far in-between...Craig Biggio, Brandon Inge come to mind, but most failed catching prospects shift to the far left side the defensive spectrum. If their bat isn't good enough to be an every day first baseman or DH, the player goes from prospect to suspect in a hurry.

Some random thoughts:

Matt Wieters is either a cyborg from the future or is one of the descendants of the Nephilim of old. Not only can he rake, he also stops the running game cold and also is adept at blocking balls in the dirt. He can even make an omelet without cracking any eggs.
Taylor Teagarden and Wilson Ramos are as good as advertised.
James Skelton and Pablo Sandoval are much better than advertised, probably because they are such oddballs.
Michael McKenry earns the first ever BtB "Golden Bazooka" award. Austin Romine gets the first annual "Pop-Gun" award. He reportedly has a strong arm but apparently has no clue how to utilize it. Not only did he struggle with stopping runners, he was by far the worst on this list at allowing passed balls.
It's a good thing Carlos Santana and Jesus Montero can hit.
Welington Castillo slides into the suspect category if he can't improve his plate-blocking skills.
Everyone seemed to be gushing about what a great all-around catching prospect Devin Mesoraco was on draft day, but oy...what a terrible debut.

*SS | CF | 2B | 3B | OF | 1B

Know Your Foe: Rockies face '07 Rocktober victims in season's first week

Poseidon's Fist — Mon, 06 Apr 2009 15:30:08 -0000

More photos » by Rick Scuteri - AP

Brandon Webb will be the first to take on the new-look Rockies line-up.

Browse more photos »

The regular season has arrived, and that means new things from Know Your Foe. I'll still profile what you need to know in the NL West, but this space will now also be used to look forward at who the Rockies will face in the upcoming week.

The Rockies epic Rocktober run in 2007 was truly reminiscent of a classic sports movie. If a writer was charged with the task of writing a sequel, an ideal start to the 2008 script would have been back-to-back series against the very teams the Rockies shockingly swept out of the playoffs on the way to the World Series.

The schedule-makers failed to provide that sequel last year, but the Rockies do open against Arizona and Philadelphia this season.

Arizona (82-80, no playoffs)

Monday-Wednesday : 3-game series at Arizona

After reaching the NLCS in 2007, the Diamondbacks failed to make the playoffs after fading to a disappointing 82-80 finish in 2008. Arizona is anchored by a strong rotation and hopes of success hinge on the growth of their young line-up.

However, if Spring Training is any indication, "success" won't be a word associated with the Diamondbacks this year. Our desert-dwelling division-rivals stumbled to MLB's worst Spring Training record at 11-23.

Probable Pitchers:

The marquee match-up of the series will no doubt be the earthworm genocide that will unfold this afternoon.

Monday, April 6:	Aaron Cook (2-2, 3.25)	vs.	Brandon Webb (1-2, 5.82)
Thursday, April 7:	Ubaldo Jimenez (1-0, 7.32)	vs.	Dan Haren (2-2, 4.40)
Wednesday, April 8:	Franklin Morales (3-3, 4.50)	vs.	Doug Davis (0-1, 6.23)

Lineup:

Nothing has changed in the past week. The Diamondbacks' starting lineup is worth about 4.924 runs. It's a solid lineup with some significant upside. The Rockies have had trouble handling Chad Tracy and Justin Upton in the past. Note that Bob Melvin altering the Opening Day lineup, replacing Mark Reynolds and Justin Upton with Eric Byrnes and Tony Clark just because Aaron Cook scares Melvin so much.

Order	Player	Position	AB	BA	HR	RBI	OBP	SLG	wOBA
1	Felipe Lopez	2B	552	.274	11	56	.349	.400	.335
2	Chris B. Young	CF	527	.260	25	77	.336	.482	.358
3	Stephen Drew	SS	532	.276	16	66	.340	.451	.346
4	Conor Jackson	LF	469	.296	14	75	.384	.465	.375
5	Justin Upton	RF	435	.257	16	60	.349	.444	.348
6	Chad Tracy	1B	445	.276	16	60	.339	.452	.346
7	Mark Reynolds	3B	468	.254	22	81	.333	.462	.347
8	Chris Snyder	C	332	.241	13	51	.344	.419	.340

Chad Tracy (.367/.424/.567), Chris Snyder (.317/.417/.610) and Mark Reynolds (.323/.377/.516) didn't wait until April for their bats to heat up. Chad Qualls was one of the few Diamondbacks hurlers to have a thoroughly impressive spring - Qualls posted a 2.70 ERA through ten spring innings that included eight strikeouts and no walks.

Spring Training couldn't end fast enough for Justin Upton (.197/.333/.328) and Conor Jackson (.200/.280/.246), who had abysmal showings in Spring Training. Brandon Webb had a sub-par spring as well (5.82 ERA, 1.59 WHIP), as did two pivotal bullpen arms, Scott Schoeneweis (11.00, 2.44) and Tony Pena (9.00, 2.44)

Philadelphia (92-70, NL East and World Series champions)

Friday-Sunday : 3-game series at Colorado

Rockies fans don't have to wait long to see the World Series Champs at Coors Field. The Rockies' first home series will be against the Phils...and it will be the last time Philadeplhia will visit in 2009.

It won't be easy for the Phillies to repeat. Since the Yankees repeated in 2000, there have been eight different champions in nine seasons. The Red Sox have won twice but failed to repeat both times. Still, Philly Phans remain morbidly optimistic. Philadelphia returns virtually the same team, although Pat Burrell has been replaced by the underrated Raul Ibanez.

Probable Pitchers:

World Series MVP Cole Hamels missed Sunday's Season Opener due to an inflamed elbow. Hamels was pushed back and will be making his season debut at Coors Field for the Rockies home opener. Brett Myers, who got rocked on Opening Day Sunday, will pitch Saturday. Chan Ho Park beat out J.A. Happ for the #5 spot in the rotation and could pitch Sunday, but Charlie Manuel might go with Jamie Moyer, who will have had five days' rest.

Friday, April 10:	Cole Hamels (0-1, 9.39)	vs.	Jason Marquis (1-3, 10.08)
Saturday, April 11:	Brett Myers (2-2, 3.52)	vs.	Jorge de la Rosa (2-2, 6.86)
Sunday, April 12:	Chan Ho Park (2-0, 2.53)	vs.	Aaron Cook (2-2, 3.25)

Lineup:

The Phillies return their entire World Series-winning offense except for Pat Burrell. Chase Utley, who seems to have recovered from his offseason hip surgery, remains as the only head of the Rollins/Utley/Howard monster not to earn an MVP. The Philly starting line-up is indeed fierce, as it projects to score 5.202 runs/game.

But don't get too scared. That would only rank third in the "barren" NL West behind Los Angeles and Colorado.

Order	Player	Position	AB	BA	HR	RBI	OBP	SLG	wOBA
1	Jimmy Rollins	SS	633	.281	18	67	.342	.452	.356
2	Jayson Werth	RF	364	.264	15	57	.365	.445	.363
3	Chase Utley	2B	571	.296	27	96	.381	.513	.391
4	Ryan Howard	1B	547	.271	46	128	.379	.576	.409
5	Raul Ibanez	LF	557	.287	26	99	.359	.488	.368
6	Shane Victorino	CF	500	.288	13	56	.350	.444	.353
7	Pedro Feliz	3B	517	.257	21	78	.303	.441	.323
8	Carlos Ruiz	C	371	.256	9	48	.338	.396	.328

The bench is quite strong as well, and we'll likely see plenty of Chris Coste, Matt Stairs and Greg Dobbs.

In past years, it has been difficult for the big Ryan Howard to gain momentum at the beginning of the season, but in 2009, there's nobody who has had a better spring. The 2006 NL MVP blasted a ridiculous 10 home runs while posting impressive slash stats (.333/.420/.760). Jayson Werth (.333/.368/.696), Jimmy Rollins (.351/.415/.541) and Carlos Ruiz (.326/.380/.558) hope their Spring fever lasts a bit longer also, and Chan Ho Park (2.53 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 10.5 K9) ran away with the #5 SP slot.

The "Flying Hawaiian" has yet to get off the ground. Shane Victorino (.180/.226/.260) posted pitcher-like numbers in Spring Training. Fellow southpaw starters Jamie Moyer (8.27 ERA, 1.94 WHIP) and Cole Hamels (9.39, 1.17) have also had their struggles.

Other things to know: Prospect J.A. Happ lost the race to be the #5 starter but remains on the roster in the bullpen...Two big names are trying to return from injury. Chase Utley had hip surgery and Cole Hamels is recovering from a sore elbow. Both figure to be healthy enough to start Friday....LHP Cedrick Bowers is now on the Philly roster...Ryan Howard lost 25 pounds from last season. Judging by his Spring Training, it has helped him.

NL West Report after the jump.

NL West Report

Arizona (11-23)

Ryan Roberts won the race for the 25th spot on the roster over James Skelton, Josh Whitesell, and Josh Wilson. Skelton had been favored due to his status as a Rule 5 draft choice from Detroit. He was waived, but Arizona retained Skelton's services by trading pitcher Brooks Brown to Detroit. Or maybe he's going to be a Colorado State linebacker.

Ryan Roberts

#14 / Third Base / Arizona Diamondbacks

Height: 5-11

Weight: 190

Bats: R

Throws: R

Born: Sep 19, 1980

Otherwise, Arizona filled out their roster exactly as predicted last week. However, with Max Scherzer on the DL, Juan Gutierrez snuck into the bullpen.

Tim Dierkes at MLBTradeRumors talked with Arizona GM Josh Byrnes, and asked about his K-happy hitters, to which Byrnes responded:

To some extent, strikeouts are like other outs.

Those are some nice sedona red shades you have there Josh. Strikeouts have been and could continue to be the Diamondbacks' undoing, but as he pointed out later in the quote "If enough walks and homers accompany the strikeouts, the tradeoff can work".

This Week: 3 game home series vs. Rockies, 3 game home series vs. Dodgers

Los Angeles (15-22)

Those sneaky Dodgers. The 25-man roster had to be set by noon Sunday, but Los Angeles still hadn't decided its final spots. They submitted a 24-man roster through a loophole and added Claudio Vargas and Delwyn Young to the roster. However, Young and Vargas will be going on the disabled list, so the Dodgers will be adding three more to the 25-man roster before their opening game at 5:05. Will Ohman and Doug Mientkiewicz are expected to be two, and two relievers will be chosen between Ramon Troncoso, Josh Lindblom, Eric Threets, and Ronald Belisario.

Will Ohman

#0 / Pitcher / Los Angeles Dodgers

Height: 6-2

Weight: 210

Bats: L

Throws: L

Born: Aug 13, 1977

The signing of Will Ohman meant Scott Elbert was not needed in the bullpen. Other changes from the forecast of a fortnight past include James McDonald becoming the fifth starter and Jeff Weaver being sent to AAA.

Ned Colletti shaved off 24% of his team's payroll in the offseason by remains the sexy pick to repeat as NL West Champions. Ramona Shelburne at the LA Daily News evaluates Colletti's offseason.

This Week: 4 game road series @ Padres, 3 game road series @ Diamonbacks

San Diego (10-21-3)

The Friars traded for Edward Mujica from the Indians and Eulogio de la Cruz to fill in the bullpen. Luke Gregorson and Edwin Moreno also won bullpen spots while Mark Worrell and Mike Adams were transferred to the 60-day disabled list. The bullpen was a mess a week ago, but a lot has changed in just a week. Shawn Hill will be the fifth starter, and their #3 starter, Walter Silva, is so obscure he does not have a picture or number in our system yet.

Walter Silva

#0 / Pitcher / San Diego Padres

Height: 6-1

Weight: 190

Bats: R

Throws: R

Born: Jan 04, 1977

I fail to see how this pitching staff can compete with the Rockies', let alone the complete product. Another look at the bullpen plight.

Buster Olney reported that Jake Peavy was a lot closer to being a Cub than people realize. As Peavy said in a Corey Brock article:

"I prepared myself that I was going to be traded. Everyone in their right mind thought I would be somewhere else"

The former first overall pick by the Padres, Matt Bush, was released by Toronto. The details are sadly and absurdly comical.

This Week: 4 game home series vs. Dodgers, 3 game home series vs. Giants

San Francisco (21-19)

The Giants ended up with a different 25-man roster than it appeared two weeks ago as well. Eugenio Velez beat out Kevin Frandsen as a backup middle infielder, and the front office decided Pablo Sandoval would do fine as a back-up catcher, so Steve Holm was optioned in favor of Juan Uribe.

Juan Uribe

#0 / Third Base / San Francisco Giants

Height: 6-0

Weight: 225

Bats: R

Throws: R

Born: Mar 22, 1979

Brandon Medders got the surprise nod over Rule 5 pick Luis Perdomo. Rookie Joe Martinez came out of nowhere to win the long reliever gig. The full-break-down is here.

Jack Taschner was also traded to the Phillies for C Ronny Paulino, who was then flipped to Florida for RHP Hector Correa. The move opened up a spot for Alex Hinshaw to be the primary lefty out of the pen.

This Week: 3 game home series vs. Brewers, 3 game road series @ Padres

Skelton Remains with Arizona

Ian Casselberry — Thu, 02 Apr 2009 22:03:00 -0000

Minor leaguer James Skelton will not be returning to the Detroit Tigers, after all. The Arizona Diamondbacks will keep him in their system after working out a deal to send pitcher Brooks Brown to Detroit.

Last year with Double-A Mobile, Brown posted a 6-15 record in 26 starts (totaling 144.1 innings), with a 4.18 ERA. He struck out 112 batters, while walking 67. As TigerBlog notes, Brown was named to the Southern League All-Star team last season, and also pitched well in the Arizona Fall League, notching 19 strikeouts in 25.2 innings.

The Detroit Tigers Weblog has more on Brown, including some analysis from Baseball America.

Brown was assigned to Double-A Erie. (Nick Piecoro reports that Brown would've also pitched at that level this season had he remained in the Arizona organization, noting that his stock seemed to have fallen. In that same article, he speaks with Skelton about his performance this spring.) Skelton, meanwhile, will report to Mobile.

Thursday's Frosty Mug

KLSnow — Thu, 02 Apr 2009 14:22:06 -0000

Some things to read while having it both ways.

Craig Counsell is feeling good and has decided not to have surgery to repair his torn meniscus. The subheadline in McCalvy's story says, "Torn meniscus hasn't limited Brewers infielder's abilities." Go ahead and make your own joke about the other things that have limited Counsell's abilities.

With Counsell good to go for Opening Day, the Brewers were able to option Alcides Escobar to Nashville to open the season. Adam McCalvy says Escobar will take ground balls at shortstop and second in the minors, to be ready in case the need arises. With Casey McGehee and Craig Counsell on the roster, I'd guess Escobar is around #4 on the depth chart at second base.

Speaking of McGehee, his local paper has an article about how proud his parents are to have fathered a major league utility infielder.

Brad Nelson had to leave yesterday's game early with stomach cramps. It sounds like it's possible he's caught the same bug that Corey Hart had over the weekend. Hopefully he can get over it quickly.

Lots of Brewers are getting attention in award predictions this week: One of the voters at Big League Screw picked Ryan Braun to win the NL MVP, and Yovani Gallardo showed up on one ballot in Dugout Central's NL Cy Young voting. Parker Hageman of Baseball Digest is picking J.J. Hardy as his NL Breakout Player of the Year.

Braun is becoming a popular pick for MVP, but at the moment it sounds like he'll just be happy to get out of Arizona.

Miller Park Drunk is picking Braun to win the NL MVP and the Brewers to win the Wild Card and make a World Series appearance. View From Bernie's Chalet also has the Brewers winning the Wild Card.

Elsewhere in rankings and predictions:

Marsh & Dave vs The Coin predicts the Brewers will finish second in the Central.
Weller and Bryan's Sports Blog has the Brewers fourth.
The UW-Oshkosh Advance Titan has the Brewers second.
Cards Cove has the Brewers fifth.
Jumping Offsides has the Brewers winning 76 games and finishing fifth.
Heavy on D compares the 2009 Brewers to Caddyshack 2.
SimonOnSports has the Brewers finishing second in the Central, with 85 wins.
The Brewers held steady at 12 in MLB FanHouse's Power Rankings.
Oriole Central has the Brewers second in the Central.
Fanatic Jack has them third.
Pitchers Hit Eighth has the Brewers and Reds tying for third with 81 wins.

It was cutdown day in minor league camp, with several players getting bad news. Brewerfan.net has the list of twelve players who have been released. Unless you're a truly hardcore Brewer fan, there's no more than a name or two on that list you'll recognize. (h/t FanShot)

Hopefully no one was cut down with a guitar, as The Honky Tonk Man made an appearance in Brewers camp yesterday, on his way to Houston for Wrestlemania this weekend.

Planning on making the Opening Day trip to Miller Park? Archbishop Timothy Dolan wants to make sure Catholic Brewer fans know they're not allowed to enjoy a bratwurst on Good Friday. All other kinds of fun are also strictly prohibited. Meanwhile, Tom H. has an overview of what you can bring in to Miller Park, and it's much more than I expected.

As of right now, there are 35 entries in the Brew Crew Ball Over/Under contest. Get yours in today for a shot to win a fantastic prize to be determined.

Also, Right Field Bleachers reminded me that Tom Tango still needs help predicting playing time for the 2009 Brewers. At the moment, 28 Brewer fans have weighed in. We can do better than that.

MLB Trade Rumors is reporting the Rockies are planning to release Scott Podsednik, and suggested the Brewers might be interested. The Brewers weren't interested enough to offer a contract when Podsednik was a free agent this winter, and I can't imagine much has changed. If Tony Gwynn Jr. clears waivers or Chris Duffy is sent down, there likely wouldn't even be room for Podsednik in AAA. Chuckie Hacks does think a Podsednik signing could help deflate Ryan Braun's ego, though.

In other camps:

Cardinals: Troy Glaus will be out until at least June with shoulder issues.
D-Backs: Waived Rule 5 pick James Skelton.
Marlins: Acquired Ross Gload from the Royals for a PTBNL and pitcher Hayden Penn from the Orioles for infielder Robert Andino.
Padres: Acquired reliever Edward Mujica from the Indians for cash or a PTBNL.
Phillies: Returned Rule 5 pick Bobby Mosebach to the Angels.
Rangers: Released Frank Catalanotto. (Also noted in FanPost)
Reds: Along with the Phillies and Braves, they've shown some interest in Gary Sheffield.
White Sox: Jerry Owens has cleared waivers and will begin 2009 in AAA, which should make the Brewers feel pretty good about the chance that Tony Gwynn Jr. could do the same.

It's still relatively rare in the baseball community, but I'm going to guess we'll see at least a few stories like this each season for a while: Mariner pitchers Brandon Morrow and Mark Lowe discuss the challenges of playing with Type 1 Diabetes. It sounds like the disease may have contributed to Morrow's move to the bullpen.

Oh, and I didn't pull an April Fools prank yesterday, but the Tigers had a creative one.

Drink up.

Welcome Back, James Skelton?

Ian Casselberry — Thu, 02 Apr 2009 14:00:12 -0000

Remember when we in the Tigersosphere were jumping up and down and throwing things through windows when James Skelton was left off of Detroit's 40-man roster and subsequently selected by the Arizona Diamondbacks in baseball's Rule 5 Draft? That outrage may have been for naught.

Despite doing all they can to make him stick - playing him at catcher, second base, and the outfield - the D-Backs have decided that Skelton will not be on their 25-man roster, and thus must place him on waivers. Unless another team claims him, Skelton must then be offered back to the Tigers for $25,000, half of what Arizona paid to draft him initially. (I thought Rule 5 guys automatically went back to their former teams if waived, but have obviously been set straight on that notion. And this is really as much thought as I care to put into it.)

Another possibility, if the D-Backs really want to keep Skelton badly enough, would be for Arizona and Detroit to work out a trade and give the Tigers something back in return. D-Backs GM Josh Byrnes confirmed to MLB.com's Steve Gilbert that he's had conversations with Dave Dombrowski over that very subject.

But as much as Skelton may have impressed the D-Backs with his defensive skills, he couldn't do much with the bat this spring. In 45 plate appearances, Skelton batted just .150/.244/.175 with one home run and seven RBIs.

Thanks to Zappatista (who's on Twitter now - yay!) for e-mailing this story over this morning. It's nice to know I'm not the only one up and surfing around that early.

Diamondbacks 7, Brewers 8: The Slaughter of the Slaten

Jim McLennan — Thu, 02 Apr 2009 04:06:17 -0000

More photos » by Ed Andrieski - AP

Dan Haren works during a spring training baseball game. (AP Photo/Ed Andrieski)

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Not many times you'll score runs in six different innings, hit three home-runs and still end up losing. I guess that's some comfort to be taken from this afternoon's loss to the Brewers, as the bullpen had another little seizure, coughing up six runs in three innings, to allow Milwaukee to come back from 6-2 down in the middle of the sixth - Doug Slaten 'celebrated' his securing of a roster spot by allowing four hits, a walk and four earned runs in the seventh. That helped to spoil a good outing by Dan Haren, who finished off his pre-season with five innings of two-run ball, on three hits with five strikeouts and no walks. He has probably been the most impressive of all our starters this spring, not least for a phenomenal K:BB ratio of 34:4. That's a rate of more than one per inning, and gives him the most strikeouts in the majors this spring, by quite some way [next is Matt Cain's 28].

About the only knock on Haren's performance in the 2009 Cactus League would perhaps be that he has allowed a few too many long balls [another one today, basically his only mistake, responsible for both the runs he allowed and giving him a total of five in 30.2 IP], but since the walks plus hits allowed barely outnumber the innings he has thrown, it certainly seems like he's all set. His comments afterwards echo that: "I feel like I've made 10 starts this spring. It's been a long spring, and it's tough to get the adrenaline going here at the end. I mean, I'm definitely ready for the real thing to start." He eased up a tad in his final warm-up outing, from the seven innings last time, throwing just shy of 70 pitches; with 49 strikes, and looked very nice doing so. Here are his thoughts on the last outing, and how he feels heading into the regular season.

Audio courtesy of KTAR 620

Arizona had a 4-2 lead when Haren left the game after five innings, and added two more in the top of the sixth, on Felipe Lopez's two-run homer, his first of spring. That was our third long-ball of the game, following solo shots to Chad Tracy and Tony Clark, but the Brewers came back immediately. Jon Rauch surrendered his fourth homer of spring to the first hitter he faced, leading off the bottom of the sixth, cutting the lead to one run. Poor pitch selection there, Rauch serving up an 0-2 fastball down the middle, and he was only saved from allowing another two-run homer by a fine Upton grab at the fence. However, there was no more damage, and it did reduce Rauch's ERA. Albeit to 15.12.

Worse was to come, in the shape of Slaten. However, it's probably worth going through the course of that inning in some detail.
   RHB - full-count walk
   RHB - 3-1 single to left
   RHB - 1-0 single to right, misplayed by Romero into a two-run double
   LHB - first-pitch single back up the box by Craig Counsell on a fastball up
   LHB - Comebacker to the pitcher, get the man off third in a rundown.
   RHB - 1-2 breaking ball, two-run double to the wall in center.
   RHB - 2-2 groundball to Roberts at second
   LHB - 0-1 slider back to Slaten for the out at first.
Two of the three lefties were retired, compared to only one of the five righties. We trust he will be used with a bit more discretion in the regular season.

On offense, a few things to note - Justin Upton really didn't look good in his at-bats,going 0-for-3 and popping up to Fielder at first, with men on the corners and one out in the third. Grace and Sutton were speculating that his bat is taking too long to get through the zone, causing him to miss pitches he should be able to hit. Upton is hitting .196 this spring, and time is running out for adjustments, from someone we expect to be a major offensive contributor as of Monday. Lopez had two hits and drove in three runs, while Clark had three hits. Chris Young and Haren each had a couple of knocks, and Tracy had a walk in addition to his homer, though did also hit into a double-play. Alex Romero had his first error of spring.

As already noted below, James Skelton has failed to make the Opening Day roster with Arizona: it looks like, despite his on-base skills, the lack of offense against major-league pitching is what doomed him. with just six hits in 40 at-bats this spring. Even some positional flexibility - he saw time at second, third and in the outfield too - wasn't enough to save him, and I suspect management decided that every spot on the roster is going to need to be productive, even the last one. Skelton now has to go through waivers (it's unclear whether this has already happened), and if no-one wants him, has to be offered back to the Tigers for $25,000. Nick Piecoro reports a trade is possible, with th Tigers getting a different player back. Ryan Roberts is probably the favorite to grab the final spot, though he two Joshes, Whitesell and Wilson, are still hanging around.

Speaking of Nick, he'll be doing an online chat Monday at 11:30 am, before our Opening Day game. Might be fun to see how that goes, see if some of the - how shall I put it - 'characters' from AZ Central show up. Probably wisely, it appears to be moderated: "Your comments are published at the Writer's discretion. The Writer can view all comments sent to them but only they can publish your comments for everyone to see." Finally, Fox Sports AZ have announced they will be screening 142 of the Diamondbacks games in high-definition: all 73 home games they are showing, and 69 of the road ones. That's a marked increase on last year's total of 84 - this Saturday's exhibition game at Chase against the White Sox will also be available in HD.

Know Your Foe: Arizona Diamondbacks and San Diego Padres

Poseidon's Fist — Mon, 30 Mar 2009 23:15:08 -0000

Arizona Diamondbacks

There are not many teams that are this close to solidifying their 25-man roster for the 2009 season. That is largely due to the small turnover the roster felt over the off-season. Gone are Orlando Hudson, Randy Johnson, Adam Dunn, Brandon Lyon and Juan Cruz but they were replaced aptly with Felipe Lopez, Tom Gordon, Scott Schoeneweis and Jon Garland as well as internal options.

via www.baseball-reference.com

Lineup:

All eight starters are already locked up for Arizona, and only Felipe Lopez differs from last year's line-up. The Diamondbacks hope the continuity and growth of their young hitters is enough to build a strong lineup. Even the line-up order is fairly set...Stephen Drew and Chris Young might swap positions against LHP.

Order	Player	Position	AB	BA	HR	RBI	OBP	SLG	wOBA
1	Felipe Lopez	2B	552	.274	11	56	.349	.400	.335
2	Chris B. Young	CF	527	.260	25	77	.336	.482	.358
3	Stephen Drew	SS	532	.276	16	66	.340	.451	.346
4	Conor Jackson	LF	469	.296	14	75	.384	.465	.375
5	Justin Upton	RF	435	.257	16	60	.349	.444	.348
6	Chad Tracy	1B	445	.276	16	60	.339	.452	.346
7	Mark Reynolds	3B	468	.254	22	81	.333	.462	.347
8	Chris Snyder	C	332	.241	13	51	.344	.419	.340

Looking at wOBA, we can conclude the D-Backs line-up features zero elite hitters, one very good hitter (Jackson), five above average hitters (Young, Drew, Upton, Tracy and Reynolds) and two average hitters (Lopez, Snyder). That's a decent distribution, especially considering the relative youth of the line-up.

Arizona's line-up projects to score 4.924 runs/game (peaking at 4.959 arranged differently). That's the same as 797.7 total runs, which ranks them right in the middle of the NL West.

Bench:

The Diamondbacks bench is also very set. Eric Byrnes will remain an overpaid fourth outfielder, and pinch-hitter Tony Clark returns to continue blocking Minor League Player of the Year Josh Whitesell. Augie Ojeda fills in as the primary utility infielder, and Miguel Montero is an above average offensive back-up catcher.

Player	Position	AB	BA	HR	RBI	OBP	SLG	wOBA
Miguel Montero	C	178	.256	12	54	.329	.419	.330
Eric Byrnes	OF	495	.259	17	60	.322	.428	.333
Tony Clark	1B/PH	206	.238	11	37	.326	.437	.336
Augie Ojeda	IF	274	.245	2	27	.334	.321	.303
James Skelton	IF/C	370	.246	5	40	.351	.346	.320

The final spot on the bench is between James Skelton and Ryan Roberts. Both can play catcher, so Montero could be utilized frequently as a pinch hitter. Skelton is a Rule 5 draft pick from the Tigers, so that gives him a slight edge over Roberts, who has had a very strong spring.

Rotation:

The theme continues, as all five starting pitchers are set in the rotation. Brandon Webb and Dan Haren return as the best 1-2 punch in the NL West. Doug Davis is an average #3 starter at best, but I like recently signed Jon Garland in the #4 starter slot. Youngster Max Scherzer will be the fifth starter to start the year. Given worries about his arm following a winter injury, manager Bob Melvin will take great care with the young gun.

Player	IP	W	L	FIP	WHIP	K
Brandon Webb	209	13	10	3.34	1.33	166
Dan Haren	203	12	10	3.41	1.23	190
Doug Davis	154	7	10	4.54	1.62	114
Jon Garland	187	9	12	4.48	1.50	102
Max Scherzer	83	5	4	3.84	1.29	94

The Diamondbacks' rotation is clearly a top two rotation in the division. If Tim Lincecum or Matt Cain falter after getting abused last season by Bruce Bochy, Arizona's rotation will easily pass the Giants as the class of the NL West.

Bullpen:

Chad Qualls assumes the closer role he probably should have had going into 2008 as Brandon Lyon left for Detroit. Tony Pena moves up to the set-up role, and former Washington closer Jon Rauch comes in as a solid 7th inning man. Scott Schoeneweis came over from New York to be Bob Melvin's LOOGY.

Role	Player	IP	W	L	FIP	WHIP	K/9
Closer	Chad Qualls	70	4	3	3.50	1.29	7.97
Set-up	Tony Pena	75	4	4	3.85	1.23	6.72
7th inn.	Jon Rauch	69	4	4	3.84	1.28	7.70
LOOGY	Scott Schoeneweis	48	2	3	4.71	1.60	6.00
Long Relief	Yusmeiro Petit	117	6	7	4.74	1.32	7.15
Relief	Billy Buckner	77	3	5	4.71	1.42	6.70
Relief	Doug Slaten	47	2	3	4.44	1.42	6.60

Yusmeiro Petit, today's starter is the favorite for the long relief role, though Juan Gutierrez still has a longshot chance for the role. Billy Buckner will probably be the mop-up reliever, and Doug Slaten is battling with Travis Blackley for the last spot. Once Tom Gordon returns from injury, he'll take that spot. That's a pretty solid bullpen.

Why the Diamondbacks will win the NL West:

This is the most balanced team in the division. Their entire pitching staff just might be the best in the division, and their offense is competitive if not spectacular. For a team with very few question marks, a step forward for some of their young hitters could be enough to push them to the top.

Why the Diamondbacks will NOT win the NL West:

They might be balanced, but the line-up will still rank near the top of the league in strikeouts and is still relatively weak. To wit: Arizona's #3 hitter, Stephen Drew has a lower projected wOBA than EVERY projected Rockies starter except Clint Barmes. Then consider their cleanup hitter (and best hitter overall)) failed to hit a home run in his last 201 at-bats last year. Not a misprint - his last one was July 27. The offense will be improved as a whole but it still won't be enough to compete with other NL West teams with more flash.

San Diego Padres

The Padres are absolutely the antithesis to Arizona. San Diego has more question marks in the last week of the spring than I've seen from any team in a long time. They are going to be bad. Very very bad.

via upload.wikimedia.org

Lineup:

The core of the lineup is set with Giles, Gonzalez, Kouzmanoff, Headley and Hundley down the middle.

Order	Player	Position	AB	BA	HR	RBI	OBP	SLG	wOBA
1	Jody Gerut	CF	381	.278	13	45	.348	.449	.350
2	David Eckstein	2B	461	.269	4	32	.337	.347	.310
3	Brian Giles	RF	512	.266	12	60	.371	.398	.346
4	Adrian Gonzalez	1B	554	.283	28	91	.359	.500	.373
5	Kevin Kouzmanoff	3B	487	.273	20	76	.324	.458	.341
6	Chase Headley	LF	488	.258	14	61	.342	.410	.335
7	Nick Hundley	C	416	.224	14	61	.284	.375	.292
8	Luis Rodriguez	SS	291	.261	3	24	.332	.351	.309

The unproven Luis Rodriguez could get bumped in favor of Adrian Gonzalez' brother Edgar. If so, David Eckstein would slide over to shortstop. Jody Gerut's sole competition is the man that almost prevented Rocktober: Scott Hairston.

This line-up would be expected to produce 4.443 runs/game as constructed (or a max of 4.543 with optimal orientation). This equates to 719.8 total runs during the season. That means the Padres have the worst line-up in the division, although they trail San Francisco by just .005 runs/game.

You know the drill. Let's look at wOBA. From that we can conclude that the starting lineup features zero elite hitters, one very good hitter (Gonzalez), two above average hitters (Giles, Gerut), two average hitters (Kouzmanoff, Headley), two below average hitters (Rodriquez, Eckstein) and one terrible hitter (Hundley). Their line-up has a wider variety of hitters than the Giants' line-up, but it is still just as bad. They'll need some surprises up the middle to be a threat.

Bench:

Former Rockie Henry Blanco was signed to back up the young Nick Hundley. Edgar Gonzalez and Scott Hairston are guaranteed bench spots if they don't crack the line-up. San Diego also signed Cliff Floyd, who has switched from being the DH for the AL champion Rays to being stuck on the bench for likely the league's worst team.

Player	Position	AB	BA	HR	RBI	OBP	SLG	wOBA
Henry Blanco	C	193	.223	4	22	.275	.321	.268
Everth Cabrera	IF	195	.205	2	10	.260	.259	.247
Edgar Gonzalez	IF	300	.266	5	33	.325	.381	.314
Scott Hairston	OF	333	.249	16	45	.322	.453	.338
Cliff Floyd	OF/1B	244	.246	9	36	.333	.407	.330

Of interest to Rockies fans, Everth Cabrera indeed looks to have a roster spot lined up after the Padres traded Chris Burke yesterday. Matt Antonelli, Emil Brown and Will Venable will see playing time throughout the season as well.

Rotation:

Jake Peavy will be the Opening Day starter for the fourth straight year. Chris Young tries to return to 2007 form after an injury-riddled 2008, but CHONE is buying none of that. Cha Seung Baek, average at best, was supposed to be the #3 starter, though he is injured and may start the season on the DL.

Player	IP	W	L	FIP	WHIP	K
Jake Peavy	177	12	8	3.40	1.19	175
Chris R. Young	114	6	6	4.45	1.32	95
Cha Seung Baek	98	5	5	4.17	1.30	67
Kevin Correia	100	6	5	3.61	1.30	81
Walter Silva	No	pr	oje	ction	s avai	lable

Nothing is guaranteed past that. Kevin Correia is the favorite to be the fourth starter based on his experience, even though he's mostly been a bullpen arm in his career. The fifth starter job is absolutely wide open. Walter Silva, a 32-yo RHP San Diego purchased from the Mexican League, is the favorite currently for the #5 spot. Josh Geer, who had a five-start cameo last year, might fill that role eventually, although he was cut last Monday. Cesar Ramos might even get the nod despite posting an abysmal 1.60 WHIP and 5.29 ERA in his first year at AAA in 2008. The Padres did sign Shawn Hill, though it remains to be seen what his role will be. He might slip into the rotation while Baek is out.

Read between the lines...this is the worst rotation Petco Park has seen, and it won't get any better if/when Peavy is traded.

Bullpen:

If the rotation is a bad traffic collision, the bullpen is the Hindenburg. Now that Hell's Bells will no longer ring at Petco, the closer position will be filled by Trevor's most recent set-up man, Heath Bell, who figures to be solid in that role. Cla Meredith slides up to the set-up man, and the former Met and Dodger Duaner Sanchez is in line for late inning work. The Mets let Sanchez go; he hasn't been the same since a 2006 taxicab accident.

Role	Player	IP	W	L	FIP	WHIP	K/9
Closer	Heath Bell	75	5	3	3.21	1.21	8.76
Set-up	Cla Meredith	74	5	3	3.48	1.26	6.57
7th inn.	Duaner Sanchez	42	4	2	3.77	1.36	7.13
LH Relief	?	?	?	?	?	?	?
Relief	Mike Adams	65	4	3	3.33	1.23	9.00
Relief	Shawn Hill	76	4	5	4.13	1.41	5.53
Relief	Cesar Ramos	141	7	9	5.12	1.52	4.59

After that, your guess is as good as anyone's. Some have reported as many as four bullpen spots will be filled through waivers. Mike Adams may find himself a bullpen spot. Former Rockie Justin Hampson and Rule 5 pick from the Yankees Ivan Nova were placed on waivers last week, as was Jae Kuk Ryu, claimed by the Indians. Joe Thatcher was also cut, so two LHP from the bullpen last year won't be there to start. The Padres acquired RHP Luke Gregorson to complete Khalil Greene trade and Eulogio de la Cruz, who was bought from the Marlins last week could find a bullpen or rotation spot. UPDATE: Ivan Nova was returned to the Yankees.

Getting the picture? It's true...one week until Opening Day, and the Padres bullpen is not even half resolved. What a disaster. Keep an eye on the waiver wire - many pitchers ousted at the end of Spring Training could find a home in San Diego, including Juan Morillo or Baltimore RHP Hayden Penn, if the O's are careless.

Why the Padres will win the NL West:

via farm3.static.flickr.com

Why the Padres will NOT win the NL West:

Going into 2008, the Giants were nearly the unanimous choice to finish last in the NL West. But given their solid rotation, it was easy to imagine a scenario where they would surprise. That is NOT the case with the Padres.

They have the division's worst lineup, a suspect bench, their worst rotation this decade, and an abominable bullpen. Not only do they have no chance of winning the division, but you have to wonder if there's a chance they could avoid 100 losses.