SB Nation - Matt Joyce

B.J. Upton, Matt Garza, Jason Bartlett Among Rays' Tendered Contracts

Tommy Rancel — Sun, 13 Dec 2009 11:00:33 -0000

More photos » by Mary Schwalm - AP

Tampa Bay Rays catcher Dioner Navarro, left, and pitcher Lance Cormier both received one-year deals, avoiding arbitration.

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Now that decision Saturday is finished, the Rays roster has gotten a bit clearer in some areas, yet remains unsettled in others. Not surprising, but B.J. Upton, Matt Garza, Jason Bartlett, J.P. Howell, Grant Balfour and Kelly Shoppach were all tendered contracts for the 2010 season. Barring an unforeseen event, all should be back with the Rays. The remaining questions are: who will sign before the mid-January deadline? And will any have a hearing like Dioner Navarro did last season?

Speaking of Navarro, a non-tender candidate in his own right, he was not only tendered a contract, but re-signed before the midnight deadline to a one-year deal with $2.1 million dollars avoiding arbitration altogether. The $2.1 million dollar salary is an exact replica of the salary Navarro received in 2009 after an arbitration panel denied his request for $2.5 million. It's not secret Navarro was just awful in 2009, but some of that awfulness can be explained by bad luck.

Even with regression, it seems that Navarro and the other catcher on the roster, Shoppach, are not ideal platoon partners with each player owning a similar platoon split. The Rays could stay status-quo on the position, or could continue to shop Navarro as was reported before Saturday's deadline. The going rate on an average catcher this year seems to be $3 million annually; Navarro could be a cheaper, alternative to some on the open market. If not, they Rays will have about ~$5 million dollars tied up at the catcher position with no clear cut answer to who is the starter.

Gabe Gross's non-tender is not a surprise. His name was never mentioned by Joe Maddon or Andrew Friedman as part of the 2010 plans, and Matt Joyce will never be more ready than he is now. Maybe the Rays will sign Ryan Langerhans for R.J. to obsess over.

R.J. covered the one-year deals of Randy Choate and Lance Cormier that will pay the bullpen duo a combined $1.9 million dollars in 2010. Choate will head in to spring training as the lead LOOGY in the clubhouse, while Cormier will nearly double his 2009 salary ($650k) and earn $1.2 million dollars. With Andy Sonnanstine and Mitch Talbot in the mix for bullpen spots, the raise for Cormier could mean an expanded role; one more similar to fellow ground baller, Chad Bradford instead of just mop-up man.

Among players non-tendered by other teams, I think Matt Capps makes the most sense for the Rays. The Rays had reported interest in him before the deadline, and it's easy to see why. Capps is still young at age 26, and was well above average in 2007 and 2008. It's strange that the Huntington/Fox front office would cut him loose based on one bad season in which some regression seems to be in order. If the Rays can some how dig into their new, seemingly bottom-less, purse one more time this offseason, Capps would seem like a decent investment since his new team would also hold his rights for 2011.

An Interview With Jonah Keri

Erik Hahmann — Tue, 24 Nov 2009 11:00:15 -0000

In continuing our series of interviews with people in and around the game of baseball we're joined by friend of the site and sports writing vagabond extraordinaire, Jonah Keri. We talk about Crawford, Bradley, instant replay, the financial state of the game, and two young LOOGYS on the rise. Enjoy.

EH: Lets kick this off with the $64,000 question. Crawford and the Rays, what happens?

JK: Depends on how the Rays fare in 2010, I imagine. If they fall out of the race early, I can't imagine Crawford's not traded. If they're in it, oddly, that might be the time to push for a possible contract extension.

Figure the order of most to least desirable outcomes goes like this:
Rays contend all year, re-sign Crawford at a discount.
Rays fall out of contention, trade him for a package like Kazmir's or better, with a mix of 0-to-3 guys and prospects.
Rays let Crawford walk, collect compensatory draft picks - DRaysBay has done a good job of noting that picks are no sure thing (i.e. you might not sign the guy) and that they're not cheap.

I doubt they trade him this off-season.

EH: Crawford is obviously the hot button issue of the winter, but asTommy brought up last week, Carlos Pena is another name who could be moved before the end of next season. How do you see the first base situation shaking out?

JK: Every Rays fan loves Los, between his great production and his winning personality. But it's hard not to love, say, Los fetching a B+ prospect and a power RP with 0-to-3 years of service time. If they can land a deal like that, then turn around and sign, say, Russell Branyan or Nick Johnson to a short-term deal for less money, that has to considered. If I had to guess, though, I'd say the Rays keep Crawford and Pena and Bartlett for now, even though an argument could be made to trade any one of them. You can't overstate how much that Kazmir trade helped the budget.

EH: Jayson Stark recently wrote an article proposing that MLB implement a minimum salary threshold where a team would tax 20% for every dollar they were under it after the first year. What are your thoughts on this idea? Could something like that realistically work?

JK: Words cannot express how much I dislike a salary floor idea. So what, the Rays would have to sign Russ Springer to a five-year extension now to get over the minimum threshold? If MLB is so concerned about owners who pocket revenue sharing proceeds instead of reinvesting in the team (cough Jeffrey Loria), they should do a better job of vetting ownership candidates. You think Mark Cuban would run a $25 million payroll every year if he took over a team, even a small-market team? No chance.

Beyond that, the smartest revenue sharing recipients would do well to funnel those funds into areas like scouting, drafting and player development, since the most valuable assets a major league can have are star players younger than free agency age (and ideally pre-arbitration). It's no surprise that the #1 player on Dave Cameron's MLB Trade Value scale was Evan Longoria, given his combination of talent and contract status.

EH: Stark goes on to say this would be the first step in "fixing a broken system." Yes, some teams spend far more/far less than others, but baseball has been thriving over the last 15 years and has had more different champions than any other major sport in that time period. Is the system really broken?

JK: The system is not broken. You've got five other divisions especially where anything can happen and any team can make the playoffs in a given year, with a reasonable amount of smarts, luck and talent.

If you want to argue that the system is broken, or that the deck is horribly stacked against anyone, you can make that case for the Jays, Orioles and Rays. Though bad geographical luck, those three teams face the toughest challenge of any teams in the major U.S. team sports, going up against the two wealthiest teams in the sport, especially now that the Yankees and Red Sox have the right people running those franchises too. I talk about this at length in the book. The Jays, for instance, might've won one or more division titles under J.P. Ricciardi if they played in a different division. But largely because they play in the AL East (while granting that Ricciardi made some ill-fated moves too, of course), the Jays now have a new GM, and they're trying to reinvent themselves for, what, the third time in a decade?

EH: There was more news this past week about the Rays and their stadium issues. The ABC Coalition came to the conclusion that "if the current stadium isn't replaced in a timely fashion, the Tampa Bay area could lose Major League Baseball." I'd say most of us here at DRB do not have a problem with Tropicana Field. You've been to the stadium and have gotten more familiar with the situation over the past year, where do you stand on this issue?

JK: Well first of all I grew up going to games at Olympic Stadium, so I'm comfortable with a dome environment. There needs to be some acknowledgment of weather here too: The Rays could certainly benefit from a new ballpark, but if they try to build an outdoor facility, that won't end well. Who wants to sit in a stadium with 95-degree weather and 95% humidity half the season - and rain the other half?

Beyond that, the whole stadium saga has been fascinating. I went way back in time in my research, to when the City of St. Petersburg was contemplating building a stadium on spec, in hopes of landing a baseball team. On spec! Can you imagine spending $500 million in today's economy to do that? (Actually they're thinking about spending something like $800 million to do this for an L.A. football team, but no one ever accused California of being a fiscally sound state.) Anyway, there's an amazing history here in terms of everything that happened just to get the Trop built - I highly recommend reading Bob Andelman's book on the subject, "Stadium For Rent". From the looks of things, I imagine the fight won't be any less dramatic this time. And yes, if they don't get a new park -- unless they start a dynasty where they reel off three or four World Series in a row or something -- they will almost certainly need a new park to survive in the Tampa Bay area.

EH: Your friend Rob Neyer has advocated giving the RF job to Desmond Jennings and platooning Matt Joyce at DH with Pat Burrell. I doubt the Rays will go that route- the team will likely supress Jennings' arb. clock as much as possible- but it's an interesting thought. Would that be a better option than leaving Burrell at DH and platooning Joyce with Gabe Kapler in RF?

JK: Well, you allude to Plan C in your next question, which is going out and acquiring Milton Bradley (or generally going a non-Burrell route). Burrell was hurt for most of last season, and I have a hard time believing the gap between the NL and AL is THAT vast that it turned a very good hitter into Rafael Santana. I agree that keeping Jennings' service time clock in check makes sense, and I like the idea of a Joyce/Kapler platoon in right to start the season.

EH: We've heard rumors this off-season about the Rays possibly dealing for Milton Bradley. His past has been well documented, but do you think Bradley would be a good fit for the Rays, on and off the field?

JK: Yes I do. I've been a Bradley fan since way back when he was a Vermont Expo. Even back then, he'd already earned a label as a great talent who was also fiery in his demeanor. Look, the guy's a fierce competitor, probably overcompetitive. But there's also no doubt in my mind that if he was pigmentally challenged, he wouldn't get nearly the bad rap that he does. Put him in the lineup, leave him be, and he'll be fine. If the Rays can resolve the contract situation, Bradley would be a great pickup. He's an absolute on-base machine without a major platoon issue, even in an off year.

EH: You're a big proponent of baseball adopting more uses of instant replay, but that doesn't seem likely with Selig still in office. Realistically, how long do you think it will be until baseball joins the 21st century and uses the advances in technology to improve the quality of the game?

JK: The next time I correctly predict what Bud Selig will do will be the first. I will say you have to look at this the way you would any piece of collective bargaining. I would guess that if Selig pushes for replay, that means he needs to make a concession to umpires. Same way you'd think that stricter drug testing would be a slam dunk, but it requires/required owners to make it palatable for players.

I will say this, though: It's just another in a long list of short-sighted (non-)decisions by the most overrated Commissioner of any major sport who's ever presided during my lifetime. When Bud Selig makes his Hall of Fame speech, I look forward to jeering him with chants of "1994", followed by me breaking down and weeping. Then throwing monkey feces at him.

EH: If you were in charge of the Rays for one day, what changes would you make, roster or otherwise?

JK: I don't presume to have a better grip on how to run the team than the current management team does. These guys are great at what they do. They usually get the big things right -- like the Garza trade -- and the little things right -- like trading for Ben Zobrist for pennies on the dollar. And that's the thing about good decision making. Do enough little things right, and just by sheer power of probabilities, one of them could turn into a big score, like finding an MVP candidate who plays 817 positions.

The only moves I can think of right now that would make sense within the framework of the team's revenue stream, talent base and likely payroll would be:

--Make a run at Billy Wagner.

--Make a run at Ryan Doumit.

--Consider the Roy Oswalt start-of-career path for guys like Jake McGee and maybe even Jeremy Hellickson. With guys like Crawford, Pena, Bartlett and Upton about to get expensive or hit free agency, there's a real window for 2010. I'd love to see some of the team's higher-level pitching prospects come in to help the bullpen before later shifting to the starting rotation. It's a great way to gain major league experience and help the team, while still knowing they'll be starters later on (certainly in Hellickson's case). Earl Weaver used to do this all the time. And really, did anyone ever have a better grip on how to run a roster than Earl Weaver?

EH: You're a busy man, what is it that you're currently working on?

JK: I'm hunkering down on the Rays book, plus raising two future millionaire LOOGYs.

As always, a big thanks to Jonah for joining us. You can find Jonah's work at a myriad of publications ranging from The New York Times to Penthouse. Check out his website here, and if you're not already (what's wrong with ya?) follow him on Twitter @jonahkeri

Tampa Bay Rays' Matt Joyce Looks Ready For Starring Role

Tommy Rancel — Fri, 13 Nov 2009 11:00:36 -0000

More photos » by Mike Carlson - AP

Tampa Bay Rays' Matt Joyce, right, receives congratulations from teammate Gabe Gross. Now, he figures to replace Gross as the teams rightfielder.

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Thanks to baseball economics, Matt Joyce no longer figures to be left out of the right field equation. While some of us thought Joyce would have a chance to be the Rays right fielder in 2009, Gabe Gross and his ~$1 million salary proved to be an average alternative while saving the Rays a year of Joyce's service time . With Gross up for a raise in arbitration in the neighborhood of $2 million, it looks like the economic tables have turned.

If Joyce turns out to be the next Gabe Gross (average hitter + above average fielder) the Rays will have a decent platoon player on their hands. However, looking at some of his minor league numbers, there is reason to believe that Joyce will be quite the improvement.

In nearly 300 MLB plate appearances in 2008, Matt Joyce showed that his power is legit. We saw that briefly here as he blasted three home runs playing sporadically over 11 games for the Rays. Joyce continued to flash that power in Durham where he slugged .482 and carried an ISO of .209 in 493 plate appearances. The power numbers are nice, but there were other pleasant surprises from Joyce in 2009.

Joyce has gotten on-base at a decent clip, but only once did he have an OBP over .340 during the last three seasons. In 2009, his OBP jumped to .373 thanks to an improved batting eye. He has always been a 10% walk guy, but in 2009 his improved to 13.8%. While walking more, he cut down his K% from 31.0% (2008 AAA numbers) to 21.9% (2009 AAA numbers).

Initially, it seems that Joyce will be paired up in a platoon with Gabe Kapler. We all know Kapler crushes LHP and one of the question marks concerning Joyce was his ability to handle south paws. If his 2009 numbers are any indication, then Joyce will do just fine. Of course, these are minor league numbers, but Joyce hit .273/.345/.508 against lefties in nearly 150 plate appearances. Kapler is the safety net, but I'm sure the Rays will try and see if Joyce can replicate those numbers at the next level.

Defensively, we've heard good things about Joyce. He projects as an average fielder at worst and has the potential to be above average in the corner. Joyce played nearly as much center field as he did right in his brief stint with the Rays, but was a +11 right fielder in the minor leagues. For those not familiar with the minor league defensive metric Totalzone, it's pretty simple; 0 is average, +10 is well above average. If Joyce can be a +5 in the Majors, I think we'll be happy.

The plan hasn't moved as quickly as some of us had hoped, but Joyce won't have that "getting used to playing in the majors" hurdle that most young players face. Sure, he is projected to be a platoon player at first, but if the numbers continue to pile up and he glows like a lightsaber then maybe a star will be born; clap for him.

The Last Man Sitting

Erik Hahmann — Tue, 20 Oct 2009 11:15:31 -0000

One of the more interesting story lines of this offseason, to me at anyway, will be the competition for the last remaining bench spot*.

*This is barring any major trades or signings before opening day

The Rays came into 2009 with a fairly strong bench consisting of Ben Zobrist, Gabe Kapler/Gross, Willy Aybar, and Shawn Riggans. Although he was already getting semi-regular at bats, Ben Zobrist was thrust into the starting lineup when Aki Iwamura went down with a knee injury in late May. That injury forced the Rays to call up players like Reid Brignac and Joe Dillon to warm the now vacant bench spot. Shawn Riggans suffered his usual injury set back which allowed Michel Hernandez a roster spot until the Zaunbie Nation came to Tampa Bay. The bench was obviously stretched out more than the Rays would have liked last season but it did an admirable job. The options for 2010 will offer a slightly different cast of characters.

Fernando Perez:

-Perez has long been one of my favorite Ray players, but that’s been more for his talents off the field than on it. A useful reserve outfielder for most teams, Perez may be forced out of a roster spot with the Rays thanks to a likely Matt Joyce/Ben Zobrist platoon in right field. Perez would be better served playing every day in Triple A and working on the next great American novel instead of wasting away at the end of the Rays bench.

Reid Brignac:

-The probable shortstop of the future, Brignac does have an option left and would no doubt be better off playing full time at Durham than riding the pine in St. Pete. Unless the Rays trade Jason Bartlett I don't see Brignac beginning the year on the Rays bench.

Gabe Kapler:

-Kapler is an interesting candidate. He doesn't yet have a contract for 2010, but the Rays would be in need of a right handed outfield bat coming off the bench. Kapler earned $1m last season and did job very well, putting up an OPS of .931 against left handed pitching. If Kapler is willing to accept another contract of $1m, or maybe a little less, I think the Rays have to seriously consider bringing him back.

Willy Aybar:

Aybar will undoubtably be a member of the Rays' bench in 2010 as the primary backup at 3B/1B. Even though Aybar rated uncharacteristically poor at every defensive position he played in 2009 he isn't a liability with the glove and his bat more than holds its own. The addition of Sean Rodriguez will drastically cut into the amount of games Aybar sees at second base next season. His salary of $1.35m is very reasonable for the production he provides.

Sean Rodriguez:

The main piece in the Scott Kazmir trade, Rodriguez will likely be the platoon partner of Ben Zobrist at second base and is able to backup Jason Bartlett at shortstop. He'll strike out enough to get the local fans to boo him, but his versatility and power bat should be enough to assure himself of a bench spot in 2010.

Matt Joyce:

I see Matt Joyce being a part of what I'm calling the Ben Zobrist Platoon menage a trois. Joyce starts in right field against right handed pitchers while Zobrist starts at 2B. Against southpaws Joyce would sit in favor of the switch hitting Zobrist, while Rodriguez would play second base. Joyce spent most of 2009 in AAA and played well enough to earn a promotion, not to mention the fact that Gabe Gross and Gabe Kapler are not likely to return.

Catcher:

The plan for a starting catcher is still up in the air, so I'm even going to begin to speculate on who the backup will be, but obviously there will be one on the roster.

I'm not sure which direction the team will go, but I'm strongly in favor of the re-signing of Gabe Kapler. They could go with a four or five man bench next season depending on how they decide to structure the bullpen. If they choose a four man bench I think Rodriguez, Aybar, Kapler, and Catcher would be the best fit to begin the season. If they go five then I would lean toward Fernando Perez to fill the last spot, if only for his pinch running abilities. No matter who they choose or how they structure it, the Rays will once again have a cost effective and productive bench in 2010.

Rays Alumni: The Roller Coaster Ride of Edwin Jackson

FreeZorilla — Thu, 15 Oct 2009 11:00:21 -0000

More photos » by Gail Burton - AP

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During last offseason the Rays traded two potential 2009 starting pitchers in Edwin Jackson and Jason Hammel. A member of the rotation in 2008, Edwin Jackson was moved to the Detroit Tigers in exchange for outfielder Matt Joyce. Jackson had won 14 games last season as the Rays fifth starter and was about to get more expensive. Despite the impressive win total and 4.42 ERA, the Rays had grown tired of Jackson's lack of progress. He struck out a career low 5.3 per 9 innings while walking 3.78. In short, it seemed Jackson was a decent pitcher whose traditional stats were inflated by the American League's top defense according to UZR. The Rays had an abundance of starting pitching and thought the cost controlled 25-year-old Joyce could be the long term answer in right field.

In 2009 Jackson made the American League All-Star team as a member of the Tigers. He pitched the first half of the season like a bona fide Cy Young candidate, sporting a 2.52 ERA and 3.19 FIP which sent Rays fans up in arms given their team's early struggles. Very quietly things came undone in the second half where Edwin compiled an unflattering ERA/FIP of 5.07/5.33. Please see below for a comparison of 2008 and 2009, along with first and second half splits.

	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	FIP	xFIP	ERA	OPS	BABIP
2008	5.3	3.8	1.13	4.88	5.16	4.42	0.796	0.301
1st Half	7.2	2.6	0.5	3.19		2.52	0.617	0.249
2nd Half	6.3	3.4	1.7	5.33		5.07	0.856	0.312
2009	6.8	2.9	1.14	4.28	4.58	3.62	0.726	0.281

Jackson's fielding independent numbers did show improvement over 2008 in both halves of the season. However, you can see a big change between the two halves in both strikeouts and walks. His home run rate year over year remained constant despite .5 HR/9 during the first half of the season. This site frequently discussed the lack of sustainability of that number and true-to-form regression made Edwin pay a steep price. Jackson has had a bit of home run luck each of the past two seasons, as evidenced by his xFIP, which normalizes home run rates as 10% of fly balls. Finally, the unsustainable .249 BABIP of the first half snapped back to reality.

For all the talk of his improved slider there is little indication of increased success. The pitch was thrown more frequently this season, with usage increasing from 21.8% in 2008 to 27.4% in 2009. However, the wSL/C, which is the runs above average per 100 pitches for the slider, actually decreased from 2.87 to 1.89 from year to year. Despite the walk and strikeout improvements, Jackson threw more pitches out of the zone in 2009. He benefitted from batters chasing a much higher percentage of his pitches in 2009, as his O-Swing% went from 21.7% to 27.2% which probably helps to account for the increase in his swinging strike % (7.7% to 9.8%). It will be interesting to see how close Jackson can come to replicating that in 2010.

	2008	2009
Slider %	21.8%	27.4%
wSL/c	2.87	1.89
Zone%	51.0%	48.1%
O-Swing%	21.7%	27.2%
SwStrike%	7.7%	9.8%

Edwin Jackson is a good pitcher who showed improvement in 2009. However, the negative sentiment of the first half has proven to be grossly impulsive and reactionary. It seems likely that had the Rays not traded Jackson last off season, he would have been moved this year. Given one less year of cost control and a greater need to trade him, the Rays may have lost some leverage despite his statistical improvements. Matt Joyce still seems like reasonable compensation for Jackson. He put up a slash line of .273/.373/.482 in Durham this season while playing above average outfield defense. The left-handed Joyce proved to be able to hit left-handed pitching putting up a slash line of .274/.345/.508 against south paws and will contend to play every day in 2010.

Next week we will take a look at the trade of the less-heralded Jason Hammel and draw comparisons to Jackson. Given the difference in compensation (Matt Joyce vs. Aneury Rodriguez), the Hammel trade turned out to be the tough one to swallow.

Zorilla Fever: Catch It! Or, How Good is Ben Zobrist?

devil_fingers — Thu, 01 Oct 2009 13:00:35 -0000

More photos » by Steve Nesius - AP

Tampa Bay Rays' Ben Zobrist skips around the bases like a girl after hitting a grand slam off Kansas City Royals starter Brian Bannister-Posnanski during the fourth inning of a baseball game Wednesday, June 3, 2009, in St. Petersburg, Fla. (AP Photo/Steve Nesius)

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I was going to do somethig on BaseRuns this week, then I realized that it was boring. Maybe I'll make it more interesting after the season is over. In the meantime, I thought I'd add a bit more wood to the Ben Zobrist On Fire Bandwagon (how's that for a poorly mixed metaphor?). He went from utility guy to taking Akinori Iwamura's gig. He went from fill-in middle infielder to legit AL MVP candidate (Ken Rosenthal's gonna love this). He's even got a cool nickname.

We all know, of course, that current performance does not equal true talent, right? I mean, clearly, Zobrist is good, but 7.9 WAR (as of this writing) good? Probably not. It's not clear where Zobrist will play on the field next season with Jason Bartlett being trade bait, Akinori Iwamura's option situation, and exactly what the Rays are thinking for right field between Gabe Gross, Gabe Kapler (okay, the latter half of the Grapler platoon is probably gone), and Matt Joyce (remember him?). But it's pretty clear that he's going to play somewhere for the Rays.

I'll try to put aside the bitterness of having kept him for my 2007 fantasy team that also included Shin-Soo Choo, they both sucked, so I let them go. Only to have them be picked up during the 2008 season by others... and so on Ugh. So let's get back to d_f's crappy "true talent" machine and see what it pumps out for Zorilla!

Ben Zobrist

#18 / Second Base / Tampa Bay Rays

Height: 6-3

Weight: 200

Bats: B

Throws: R

Born: May 26, 1981

Hitting:(+basestealing): As usual, we'll use a variation on the method suggested in The Book for estimating a players true offensive talent -- regressing his wOBA (this version from FanGraphs including steals) for each major-league season against 200 PA of league average. In brief appearances in 2006 and 2007, Zobrist was helpless at the plate, posting wOBAs of .243 and .180, respectively. However, toward the end of 2008, Zobirst got called up and put up a very good .364 wOBA in 227 PA. Given his previous performance in both the majors and minors, that appeared to be a fluke, but he started 2009 on fire, and with Iwamura's injury, Zorilla got enough playing time to silence the doubters with a (as of the moment) .399 wOBA over 578 PA. Regressing each season, doing a weighted average, and adding a slightly age adjustment gives us a current true talent level of a .358 wOBA, which translates to about 17 runs above average over 700 PA.

Fielding: Zobrist came up as a SS, and mostly played there prior to 2009 in the majors. He's played all over this season, putting up great UZR numbers at both 2B and RF. Since he spent most of his time this season at 2B, and it seems likely (to me, at least) that he'll be starting there in 2010, we'll try to get a sense of his talent there. Getting a good projection is tough, considering how little time he spent there in the majors prior to 2009. So what I've done is to take his 2009 2B UZR/150, then add in his SS numbers from the prior season while adding 5 to the SS numbers to account for the relative difficulty of that position. It's not perfect, but it's decent. Zobrist has an outstanding +24.1 UZR/150 at 2B so far this season, but his prior ratings at SS were less than impressive (in small sample sizes). There's plenty of regression, and I incorporate speed score into that for outfielders and also middle infielders, although I'm not sure if I'll continue that for MIs. I also included data from the Fans Scouting Report. This was particularly helpful because it allowed me to get a sense of Zobrist's skills relative to 2B even in the seasons when he was playing mostly SS. The Fans were less impressed, and my translations rate him at 4.2, -11.2, -7.0, and +3 runs at 2B from 2006-2009. Given the relative lack of data, I used 50% regressed UZR and 50% Fans Scouting Report. The final result was that Zobrist projects as about a +2 defender at 2B.

Baserunning: Using EqBRR from Baseball Prospectus (minus steals since that's included in wOBA), Zobrist wasn't really that bad or good. There's such a small sample that everything is heavily regressed. Let's call it average for now.

Adding it all up: +17 hitting +2 fielding +2.5 positional adjustment +25 AL replacement level = 46.5 times 85% playing time = about a 4.0 WAR player. Not bad for a guy making the minimum who, prior to this season, projected as a utility man who was a seeming thrown-in when the Rays traded away the immortal Aubrey Huff.

it's still hard to believe, given the out-of-seemingly-nowhere monster seasons had by both Zobrist and the previously-discussed Jason Bartlett, that the Rays aren't in the playoff hunt. But they'll be back. Even if he doesn't put up another Mauer/Pujols-esque season next year (and it's likely he won't), the Rays are in great shape with Zorilla wherever they end up playing him.

Update: Thanks to MGL's comment below, I finally got off my butt and corrected how my spreadsheet is set up (I'd prefer to do this in my database which has a more sophisticated [if still crude] Marcels-esque script in it, but it uses baseball databank, which understandably isn't updated in season... if FanGraphs would add current player age to their leaderboards, however... pretty please, Mr. Appleman? Right after you port the ap to BlackBerry?). Anyway, I don't know how badly this skew some earlier stuff, but long story short: Zobrist projects as more of a .348 wOBA guy, or +11/700. So he's closer to 3.5 WAR player at 2B. I leave the above unaltered as a testimony to my sloth, stupidity, and what half-assed projections can do.

Gabe Gross is the Invisible Man; Gross Becomes Non-Tender Candidate

Tommy Rancel — Wed, 30 Sep 2009 10:00:27 -0000

More photos » by Steve Nesius - AP

Maybe Gabe Gross just misses Scott Kazmir?

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The sad reality of this shuffling roster game we play is sometimes you have to say good-bye to valuable pieces of the puzzle that have become expendable either because of their own salary or other cheaper viable options. Akinori Iwamura most likely will be one of those players. Gabe Gross is likely to be another.

For those of you who haven't noticed Gabe Gross is still an active member of the Rays roster. However, with Iwamura's return and Ben Zobrist's ability to play an above average right field, Gross has become the invisible man. Iwamura and Zobrist are part of the reason Gross has been riding the pine, but his play at the plate hasn't helped his case either.

Gross got off to a stellar start in 2009. In his first 165 plate appearances he hit .286/.394/.443. With that line and his defense, Gross was on his way to a 3 WAR season. Despite that good start, things have fallen apart for him. Over his last 152 plate appearances he is hitting just .180/.272/.286 and he's defense has suffered as well. While he is still a plus defender, a 6.4 UZR isn't as sparkling as the 11.8 he put up in 2008 especially with a recent batting line that rivals Dioner Navarro.

Gross will be arb2 eligible this off-season. Given the fact that he earned $1.255 million dollars this season, and his lack of production this year, Gross is a prime non tender candidate. This doesn't mean he isn't valuable. Average is still good except when it becomes expensive. He has given the Rays $3.8 million dollars of production in ‘09, but his value doesn't match the Rays salary structure. With Matt Joyce available and ready to take over at the same position with a similar, and better, set of skills for around 1/4 of the cost it's just smart business.

The Durham Destroyers of Cowhide: Sean Rodriguez & Matt Joyce

R.J. Anderson — Sun, 06 Sep 2009 23:39:00 -0000

by Paul Battaglia - AP

View full size photo »

This is an unfamiliar feeling.

Labor day is tomorrow and for the first time in franchise history you can use the holiday as an opportunity to downgrade playoff hopes from "long shot" to "miracle". With such, college football and the N.F.L. will take over the local sports spotlight. For all purposes, ‘competitive' - which I'll define as competing for a potential playoff spot - baseball is done for the year 2009. That doesn't mean you should stop paying attention though, oh no, and here's one reason why.

Power.

Everyone loves home runs. The Rays rank third in the American League in team homers with 175. They have to average a little under a home run per game to be the third team to reach 200. The good news is Matt Joyce and Sean Rodriguez should join the team soon, and they posses thunder sticks.

Rodriguez has five career MLB homers. The true distances on those suckers per Hit Tracker:

The Durham Bulls Twitter account estimated Rodriguez' Sunday home run went over 450 feet.

430
423
415
405
383

Average: 411 feet

As for Joyce, his career home runs have the following distances:

443
437
435
434
431
409
406
397
394
391
381
371
360
351

Average: 403 feet

Long-time readers know how much I've swooned over Joyce's power.

I'm sure they'll experience more cheapies once they reach the major leagues and those numbers will drop, but consider that Carlos Pena, Evan Longoria, and Ben Zobrist average in the 396-398 foot range this year. Of the 172 Rays bombs Hit Tracker has listed this year, 75 have went 400+ feet.

It's not quite the playoffs, but the Rays just might have a hit show to put on.

The Other Guy in That One Deal Last Year

R.J. Anderson — Mon, 31 Aug 2009 11:00:27 -0000

We haven't talked about Matt Joyce in a while.

Joyce's 13.6% walk rate is top five in the IL and his strikeout rate is around 24%. Overall Joyce has an .855 OPS. Per MinorLeagueSplits his platoon splits break down as such:

Versus LH: 107 AB, .252/.311/.486 (5 HR, 7 BB, 31 SO)

Versus RH: 284 AB, .282/.395/.482 (10 HR, 56 BB, 62 SO)

Joyce still kills righties. His approach facing them appears solid, walking almost as many times as he strikes out, showing some home run pop, and also hitting 23 doubles against the normal folk. Joyce isn't quite as comfortable with the alien species known as left-handers. He's not seeing a ton of them to begin with, but when he does he's struggling to reach base against them. The power is still there, just the familiarity with the strike zone and the ability to pick up pitches isn't.

Joyce's defense will always represent a good portion of Joyce's WAR, and TotalZone has him worth +11 runs in right field. I'm not sure what the correlation between TZ and UZR is, so take that figure with some salt. You have to figure he's a 5 < x < 15 defender in a corner at this point. Hopefully we can improve the precision on that range at some point in the next year or two. For what it's worth, the 2008 Fans Scouting Report ranked Joyce as an above average defender as well.

August has been kind to Joyce thus far and he's actually walked more than he struck out. With about 60 days needed in order to complete Joyce's first service year, he's appeared in 11 games this season and presumably has around 35-40 days left in that year, meaning the Rays will probably delay his September arrival until after the International League playoffs end. It's not like there's any rush for him to join this particular team anyways. Next year should be a different story.

Desmond Jennings Promoted to Durham

R.J. Anderson — Sat, 01 Aug 2009 03:34:55 -0000

Finally.

I think this sums it all up.

Jennings (22-years-old): .316/.395/.486

SL Average (24.6-years-old): .255/.331/.380

Durham's outfield should contain Jennings and Matt Joyce most nights. Enjoy that combination Bulls fans, because they won't be there long.