SB Nation - Cyle Hankerd

IHSB's Arizona Diamondbacks Top-40 Prospects List - 2009

IHateSouthBend — Wed, 23 Dec 2009 10:12:29 -0000

This is my first practice in making a top-prospect list, and it was certainly an experience. The biggest thing I struggled to deal was how to rate a prospect who perhaps was near the top of the list last year, but had a mediocre year in '09 in relation to some of the newer kids just taken that have had fewer years in the system, and hence fewer challenges to the majors, especially with a class of kids from the '09 draft who haven't proven much in professional baseball yet, but who many are already trying to crown as the top prospects in the system. As an example, Mark Hallberg was a guy who was rated in the top-10 amongst D-Backs prospects prior to this season, but he absolutely tanked in '09 at Mobile, and he isn't on this list at all.

So, after a few weeks and a few major changes to the list, I think I wound up with a pretty solid compilation, although certainly the difference in a slot or two should not be nit-picked (please :-P). Admittedly, the publishing of a few top-prospects lists by the likes of BA and a few other independent sources has been extremely helpful to me, but at the same time I tried to keep my own opinions deeply ingrained in this piece, especially with regard to a couple of guys who I'm not especially high on despite being against the popular consensus. Another thing to point out - a lot of my analysis comes from statistics, with just a little bit of scouting research done to try to keep a little semblance of balance. But I'll be the first to admit that I haven't personally scouted any of these guys, although I hope to get the chance to when the South Bend season starts next spring.

IHSB's Top-40 Diamondbacks' Prospects List:

1) RHP Jarrod Parker - Depressing as it is to see a guy who is the consensus #1 prospect in the organization prior to '09 need TJ surgery, the year could have gone much worse for Parker. Parker absolutely dominated the two levels he pitched at, and when he finishes his rehabbing from the surgery, he will be put in Reno in short order, likely around age 22, which is still young for that level. One site I've read said that at one point in the season they felt that Parker was the top pitching prospect in all of baseball. That's ahead of Matusz, Bumgarner, everybody. And, thankfully, this type of surgery is no longer a reason for plummeting a kid with that kind of stuff's value too far down.

The biggest concern for me is if all that stress on his 6'0'' frame from throwing 96 MPH leads to further injury. It'll be remarkably interesting to see what kind of form Parker returns to once he has rehabbed. Some guys come back with their velocity shot, others come back with extra velocity (which would be an absolute treat to see). It just depends on how he adjusts to the feel of the new ligament, and how quickly he can get used to it and make any adjustments to his delivery if necessary in order to regain his command, which has already been Parker's biggest obstacle in the minors. Parker still is one of just a handful of arm prospects in baseball who has #1 ace potential, keeping him at the top of the list for me, although by a slimmer margin than many would imagine.

2) 1B Brandon Allen - Allen is technically still a prospect, and even though his major-league debut wasn't marvelously impressive, his minor-league numbers made the gap between him and Parker a lot smaller than many would think. Heck, during that "unimpressive" time in the majors, the guy still showed us that he has some legit major-league pop in his bat and some shockingly-good glovework and footwork at 1B. It's a matter of figuring it out how not to strike out for this kid, and given his young age (he will be 24 all next year), I'm of the mindset that there's a good chance that he can, with a 30-HR ceiling as a great possible reward for our patience. The only issue is that he's stuck at the top power position defensively, but he has the offensive ability to be an everyday player there.

3) 3B/1B Bobby Borchering - Borchering is young and raw, but he has immense power potential and the ability to become an all-time-great hitter. Everyone has heard the standard Chipper Jones comparison, although Borchering is less apt defensively, but has greater power potential than what Chipper has demonstrated in his career. If he can work on his defense to the point where it's definitely passable at third in the majors, his value spikes and he's one of the best prospects in baseball. A good first full-season in the minors next year would make him a #1-quality prospect in the #2 position on the D-Backs list, with Allen likely to lose prospect status and Parker still holding down the #1 spot with his ace potential and a more advanced level (since it would take about 30 knee-blowouts in the upper levels for Borchering to reach AAA in '10).

4) OF Cole Gillespie - The biggest concern for me about Cole Gillespie is the fact that his big numbers outbreak came once he arrived in Reno. A few things that help to ease some of my concerns are the fact that a lot of his value comes in walk rate, something that Reno does not too dramatically affect, the fact that some of his jump was due to some BABIP regression from the beginning of the season to the end of the season, and the fact that he has continued to put up great numbers in the Arizona Fall League against some good pitching, the only guy amongst the D-Backs' AFL participants to really stand out, with Tom Layne putting up the second-most-impressive AFL stint. Should make the Opening Day Roster, especially now that two of the guys he was competing with for that spot, Trent Oeltjen and Alex Romero, are now in the Brewers' system the Astros' system, respectively.

Further, Eric Byrnes' sunk cost should not be too much of an obstacle in the way of Gillespie's path to the majors, especially if we can deal him for a fringe prospect or two by eating most of that huge salary to clear the way for a 5th OF upgrade with some long-term upside, as opposed to the Randy Winn rumblings, which would be a move with no long-term upside. If the team does decide to go out and get Winn, though, I don't see where Gillespie fits until 2011, which would be an absolute shame considering he was ranked by Scout.com as the 107th best prospect in baseball before his great 2009 season. A comparison I've made is a Conor Jackson-type, someone who will get on base a lot, although probably with less power, but better defense in left field.

5) 1B Ryan Wheeler - An absolutely remarkable season, and I guy who I'm insanely high on. This is a kid who turned 21 mid-season, and held OPS's of .999 in Low-A and 1.024 in Mid-A. An absolutely legitimate power bat at first-base, and looks like a guy who will absolutely blast through Visalia, if the organization even bothers to assign him there. Frankly, I'd rather they just skip the unnecessary stop and throw him into the fire at AA to start the season. It's odd thinking that a guy we just drafted as a rookie with the 156th pick, in the fifth round, in '09 (and a fairly young one at that, 20/21 isn't typically a polished college star at that draft slot) could start 2010 as Mobile's everyday first-baseman, but he deserves it, as the other option, now that Ryne White (who didn't really deserve a promotion to AA anyways) is out of the way, are the incumbents Bryan Byrne, who will be 26 next season and is an organizational-depth guy at this point after proving he couldn't hit PCL pitching, leading to a re-demotion to AA, and Sean Coughlin, who will be put in Reno after an injury-shortened but great season at Visalia and Mobile. I've heard some suggesting that he'll be put at South Bend, but Wheeler is too advanced a hitter and has amazing strike-zone discipline. If anybody in the system is ready to be pushed aggresively through the system, it's Wheeler. Leads to a really interesting question as to what the FO will do with Allen and Wheeler once Wheeler is major-league ready if Allen has established himself as an everyday major-league first-baseman.

6) LHP Michael Belfiore - An absolutely dominant year vaulted Belfiore above three guys drafted ahead of him - A.J. Pollock, Matt Davidson, and Chris Owings - on my list. The guy showed that he has the stuff to be an absolute monster, and can legitimately start. Really looking forward to seeing both where the organization puts him (I'm thinking Mid-A with the potential for a mid-season call-up, as a straight assignment to the hitter-friendly Cal League scares me, and Yakima would be pointless), and how he is able to fare next season against more advanced hitters. Also played 1B for Boston College, so he has the potential to be yet another good-hitting pitcher for the Diamondbacks, although he isn't going to light up Chase Field's outfield bleachers like Micah Owings.

7) CF A.J. Pollock - A lackluster first season for the polished Notre Dame product (Go Irish!) slid him down the rankings a little bit, but his defensive ability in center field and his ability to make contact, having just been ranked both the top hitter for contact and the best outfield defender in the D-Backs system by BA, keep him in my top-10. The fact that he played well enough to earn himself a likely promotion to Hi-A to start next season means he doesn't plummet (see - Matt Davidson), as he won't be stuck repeating a level to start 2010. Already polished in terms of limiting his strikeouts, but could stand to up his walk rate. He has the skills already, but for some reason he just didn't demonstrate them consistently in South Bend. If he can in Visalia, a well-known hitter's league, he could find himself vying for a mid-season promotion to Mobile to set himself up to start 2011 at Reno and much higher on this list.

8) SS/2B Chris Owings - Owings is a guy with the potential to be an impact middle-infielder with the bat, which lands him comfortably within my top-10. The biggest question for me is if his defense can stick at shortstop, one of the most demanding defensive positions. If he moves to second-base, his bat isn't quite as valuable. But with a great Instructional League showing according to "top-scout" Conor Jackson, it'll be interesting to see what Owings will be able to do next season, at South Bend and perhaps at Visalia around mid-season. The defense is an issue, and if I felt it was a certainty that could definitely stay at short he would be rated higher, but nonetheless he remains a great prospect. One concern I've heard voiced about Owings, though, is that even though he is solid across the board in terms of tools, he doesn't have any skills that stand out as plus.

9) OF Collin Cowgill - Another solid season for the small man with large power, this year in Visalia, merited both an invite to the Arizona Fall League and his almost guaranteed placement in Mobile for next season at age 24. A guy who does everything - gets on base, hits for power, even has speed on the basepaths (11 SB: 4 CS). But there are certainly questions, beginning with the overload of major-league OFs, or minor-league OFs who are ahead of Cowgill in the system. EByrnes will be out of Arizona in 2011, but the Snakes will still have Co-Jack, Parra, Gillespie, Upton, and CY as major-league-caliber OFs in 2011, with Cowgill expected either late 2011 or 2012.

Also, Cowgill is making a transition that has crushed many a top Diamondbacks prospect before, from having a good, but not great, season at Hi-A in hitter-friendly confines to the pitcher-friendly Southern League. As Mark Hallberg will attest, the Hi-A-to-AA jump is difficult as is, considered the most difficult outside of AAA-MLB, and the nature of the leagues isn't helping anybody either. A final, perhaps more serious, concern is that Cowgill appears to either be a poor defensive CF with a good bat, or a good defensive corner OF with a poor bat. These concerns seem to make Cowgill more apt in a 4th OF role, albeit a darned good and extremely versatile 4th OF, rather than an everyday OF, unless he can really improve upon last season's numbers next year at AA.

10) RHP Bryan Augenstein - Both additions to lower-level organizational depth and injuries combined to ruin what looked like a year in which Augenstein would jump into the top-5 of the D-Backs' prospect rankings after some absolutely bogus AA production, and at the young age of 22 years old. But Augenstein has always had some injury risk with his throwing motion and the stress it puts on his elbow, and the fact that these issues are already cropping up is certainly concerning for his future, causing him to slide down the rankings (he would be fifth or sixth otherwise). He's probably the second-choice candidate for the #5 rotation spot, and I could imagine Augenstein, Rodrigo Lopez, or perhaps a major-league bullpen guy like Aaron Heilman or Esmerling Vasquez being the designated injury fill-in in 2010. Still has the best command in the system, and gets some good sinking motion on his fastball.

11) RHP Wes Roemer - Displayed his dominance over the California League, no small feat considering its hitter-friendly nature, early in the season and earned a promotion to Mobile, where he put up a solid season for the BayBears. Had an ERA just over 4, which was as good as any of the other arms in the BayBears rotation not named Augenstein or Parker. Has a slider that will get major-league hitters out with a little more polish and a few more years of experience. He also is young, as he will be 23 for all of next season. I hear incessantly about guys like Belfiore and all of the young first-round picks from the '09 draft, but yet very little about Roemer, a sandwich-round pick from just a couple years back who hasn't faltered in his development.

12) LHP Tom Layne - Tom Layne began the season near the bottom end of the Diamondbacks' top-50 lists, but absolutely dazzled during his time in Visalia, both as a starter and in relief, leading up to his promotion to AA-Mobile to fill a rotation spot after Jarrod Parker was shut down. He just wrapped up his stint in the AFL playing for the Scottsdale Scorpions, and if you remove one bad outing from Layne's AFL stint, he threw 12.1 innings and allowed just two runs, for a 1.46 ERA. However, that one bad outing saw him get just one out and allow just 5 earned runs, shooting up his overall AFL ERA to 4.97. Still a solid stint, in my opinion the second-best amongst the D-Backs at the AFL, and it positioned him to start next season either in the suddenly-empty rotation at Mobile, and provides an option for the Reno rotation or bullpen if needed due to injuries either at AAA or in the majors. Also is left-handed, the importance of which is emphasized by the fact that every candidate for the D-Backs' 2010 rotation throws right handed (Haren, Webb, Jackson, Kennedy, Buckner, Augenstein, Mulvey, and Valdez are all RHP's).

13) 1B/C Sean Coughlin - A guy that I almost completely neglected until the D-Backs affiliate of Scout.com recently named him their 2009 D-Backs Organizational Hitter of the Year (although picking Coughlin over Wheeler was still a minor travesty). He flew under the radar a bit because he broke his hand after just 77 games this year, 27 at Visalia and 50 at Mobile, and because his stint at Visalia wasn't all that special, as he posted just a .776 OPS in a hitter's league. However, upon his promotion to Mobile, Coughlin exploded, seeing his OBP shoot up 99 points, and his slugging 42 points, for a .917 OPS. He only played 17 of his games as a catcher, indicating that his defense there wasn't exactly impressive, with the rest at 1B or DH, where that type of production is expected, but the production was encouraging enough that the team felt comfortable in letting Josh Whitesell become a free agent.

Also, even though Coughlin hits left-handed, he carried a 1.038 OPS against left-handed pitching in his 48 AA PAs against lefties. If this proves to be a trend beyond this small sample, he could hypothetically (lots of emphasis here) come up to platoon with Allen if he continues his explosion at Reno and Allen is struggling with left-handed pitching. Unlikely, but a possibility if the FO cannot reign in a free-agent RHB to platoon at 1B like Tatis or Garko, or in case of injury to part of the major-league 1B battery. If he can be passable at catcher defensively, his value spikes, because of how likely it is that Ryan Wheeler will eventually surpass Coughlin offensively, and just how soon that may occur.

14) CF Ollie Linton - Ollie Linton is precisely the type of player that fans love to watch play. He's a prototypical leadoff hitter who is great at drawing walks, with a BA of .295 and OBP of .394 last year at Visalia to demonstrate this. He plays fantastic defense in center field, perhaps the best outfield defense in the system, stole 28 bases last year, and even has some pop, slugging .399, with 28 doubles, 10 triples, and a homer amongst his 145 hits. His great season and Evan Frey's return to mediocrity resulted in Linton dramatically overtaking Frey as the best leadoff-hitter prospect the Diamondbacks have, and perhaps has set Linton up to contend with A.J. Pollock to be the eventual heir apparent to Chris Young. Even though most will tell you that Pollock is the guy who is going to take over that position come 2013, don't be shocked if Linton is there and Pollock winds up as a 4th OF that year. Probably a guy I'm a little over-high on, but his numbers, especially in getting on-base, make him look to me like a possible Chone Figgins-type offensive producer with great defense in center.

15) OF Marc Krauss - I think people putting him in the top-10 on their lists are a little over their heads, although they appear to be the vast majority. IMO, they are particularly under-valuing defense, especially for an NL club like Arizona that builds its success around pitching (and maybe I'm taking Krauss' system misfit too much into account). Krauss likely is a 1B or DH, unless whatever team has him is ok with his bat's value being diminished by his outfield butchery, a la Adam Dunn. The power in his bat is certainly legitimate, and qualms about how Krauss would deal with the transition from aluminum bats and crappy MAC pitching to wood bats and professional pitching appear to have been completely suppressed.

However, teams like Seattle (let the record show I love Seattle GM Jack Zduriencik, despite the fact that when he left his position as Milwaukee's Scouting Director, he left the Brewers with no decent upper-level pitching prospects) are starting to show just how important and valuable defense is, and Krauss' defense is awful. For comparison's sake, Linton, rated just ahead of Krauss, put up an OPS approaching .800 at a higher level and is a plus defender in CF, a very demanding defensive position where offense comes second, while Krauss put up an .855 OPS a level below while playing awful defense in RF, a much less demanding defensive position where you need to have a good bat to have value. Krauss was 21, compared to Linton's 23, but the differences in value are pretty apparent to me, at least.

16) 3B/1B Matt Davidson - Yes, he just put up an abysmal season in Low-A, and has fallen behind a plethora of other guys in the system, even a ton of guys picked this year, but there's only so far down you can list a guy like Davidson, given he was picked in the 1/2 Sandwich Round and was 18-years-old for all of last season, making him still young for his level. We wanted to see more, but the power potential in Davidson's bat is still there, and it's still real. Limited to the power positions defensively, and of the two will more than likely be at 1B, but he has the capability to put up everyday power totals at that position. If he can demonstrate his real potential next year in his first full-season of professional baseball, and he'd better hope he does with Wheeler and Goldschmidt having climbed above him in the system and Wheeler already looking like he has a brighter future than Davidson IMO, you can rest assured he'll be a top-10 guy next season, but for now I couldn't justify ranking him above too many people who have already proven more than Davidson in the system.

17) RHP Kevin Mulvey - Supposedly major-league ready at the time we acquired him from the Twins, but while Billy Buckner demonstrated this fact clearly in his time at the end of the season, Mulvey pitched poorly. Acquired for Jon Rauch at the deadline, Mulvey didn't show anything to suggest that the team should rely on him for a rotation spot next season, leaving the team in a quandary for whether or not anybody other than perhaps Bryan Augenstein can be counted on for emergency starting duties next season, and leading to the team going out and getting guys like Rodrigo Lopez for extra fifth starter options. Needs to have a great start at AAA to possibly merit a mid-season call-up to fill in for a rotation injury or an unexpected Buckner suck demonstration. He is going to be 25 next season, so time is starting to run out if he's going to wind up starting in the majors.

I see Mulvey as a guy who, if he can't pull off an upset and clinch the fifth rotation spot, is someone the organization might want to take a look at trying to put into the 'pen, basically having him amp up his fastball velocity and keep his best secondary-pitch, his slider, while dumping his change completely and occasionally flashing his curve in long relief to keep hitters off-balance. It would allow the FO to guarantee some major-league value from Mulvey, with the odds of him starting getting slimmer and slimmer. I see middle relief as his floor, and as something he could do in the majors as soon as next year, so, despite his low ceiling and equally low chance of reaching that ceiling, he doesn't fall too far after being a top-10 Twins prospect after the '08 season.

18) RHP Trevor Harden - In his second professional season at just age 21, he very quickly demonstrated in six starts that he was better than the Midwest League, and fared well in the hitter-friendly California League, although he did see a noticeable drop in his metrics. Should be in Mobile to start next season at just 22 years old with much of the AA rotation graduating to AAA (Augenstein, Torra, possibly Enright and/or Roemer mid-season). Also, he doesn't have an injury history, and possesses an effortless delivery and throwing motion according to scouting reports. Throws 93 MPH, and racked up K's in his brief stint at SB, as he has for most of his career. One of our higher-upside starting arms.

19) SS/2B Pedro Ciriaco - I've been talking up Ciriaco as a top-10 guy for a while after he put up good numbers for a defense-oriented shortstop at AA, but as I've been checking up on his winter-league stats from time to time, I've flip-flopped more than John Kerry, from wanting to jam forks in my eyes to wanting to put Ciriaco back in the top-10. Ciriaco originally started hot at the AFL, causing me to start spouting torrents of man-spunk (sorry for that mental image, everbody, especially the ladies) and praise in his direction, but he eventually tanked to a .614 OPS in his overall AFL stint. My first thought was, "Ok, the AFL has good pitching and is just a small sample, so he'll do better in the Dominican Winter League to redeem himself, right?" Well, the first time I checked Ciriaco's DWL stats, he had accumulated a .588 OPS. ::gags::

However, after turning against him and sliding him a good dozen-plus spots on the list, there were updated stats from the DWL the next time I checked Ciriaco's numbers, and he had rebounded in a major way, raising his OPS to .769. His walk rate was still awful, just two in 47 PAs, but he had also only struck out three times and clubbed a homer. So, batting average was indeed fueling his success, but it wasn't completely unprecedented that it could in this instance. It comes down to this: everyone trying to say that his offensive production at Mobile this year was due to a lot of fortune may have a point, but I honestly think it's hard to say what we have offensively in Ciriaco. Thankfully his defense isn't really a concern, at least for me. I've read reports either having him as a "defensive wizard" or at the very least possessing the best infield arm in the system. Still could be an everyday guy at SS, but the patience needs to show up at some point before that happens. If Ciriaco's not ready, it may have to be Tony Abreu who takes over at SS in 2011 if Drew is dealt, while Ciriaco provides backup infield defense a la Augie Ojeda.

20) CF Keon Broxton - Boom/bust type who strikes out far too much to be any higher than he is here. Ridiculous five-tool potential and the best athlete the Diamondbacks have in their system, but patience really needs to come if he's going to reach the show. One thing that isn't an issue, however, is his glove, which comes naturally to Broxton because of his athletic ability. Could be what CY has thus far failed to become, a power machine who plays excellent center field defense, can stretch doubles into triples, and makes pitchers uneasy whenever he is on the bases. Stay tuned here, 2010 could absolutely vault him up the prospects list, or it could remove him from it (see - Tyrell Worthington, picked in the fifth round in 2007, also rated as the best athlete in the system by BA, but now out of the system after tanking in Yakima at the start of '09). Will just turn 20 in May, and probably will be sent to Yakima next season to start a slow development and ascension through the minors.

21) LHP Wade Miley - Moving from the high-risk high-reward Broxton to a safe-bet low-ceiling type, Miley is a guy who is expected to reach the majors, but has a ceiling of a solid 5th, maybe a passable 4th starter. Nevertheless, he has value strictly because of the arm he throws with and his high-probability of reaching the major leagues. He hasn't hit any major stumbling blocks along his path to the majors, and nothing has changed about his prospect value since he was drafted other than the already-slim chance of him flaming out in the minors decreasing with every level he is promoted to. We'd have liked to have seen more strikeouts this year, but I'll wait another season to see if his metrics recover before hitting the panic button unlike some other reports I've seen.

22) LHP Zachary Kroenke - Unlike Roque Mercedes and Leyson Septimo below, Kroenke isn't known as a guy with back-of-the-bullpen potential. But he isn't a straight LOOGY either, as he threw 72.1 innings in just 34 relief appearances and 2 starts last year at AAA in the Yankees' system, and he's major-league ready after carrying a sub-2 ERA in '09 (and a higher, but still solid FIP). We took him in the Rule 5 Draft, undoubtedly as a left-handed arm to compliment Clay Zavada in the major-league 'pen in both multi-inning relief and as a guy who will occasionally have face a tough lefty or two in a pseudo-LOOGY role, which will be especially important for Arizona this year since their rotation will consist of five RHP's, and because our left-handed arms in the minors are all a year or more away from being ready for the majors. If Kroenke can show that his stuff will work against major-leaguers, Ian Kennedy will not be the only 2009 Yankee minor-leaguer who has a significant role for the D-Backs in 2010.

23) C John Hester - At one point I had him in the early teens, but Hester winds up down because of his age (which I had already taken into consideration at the previous ranking, actually), 26-years-old, and mostly the fact that it appears less and less likely that the organization will be able to create space for him on the roster by moving incumbent backup Chris Snyder. The guy was just named to the Topps AAA All-Star Team after an offensive explosion in Reno, despite a career reputation as a defense-first catcher whose offense needed to catch up to the defensive advancement. Capable of being a major-league backup today IMO, it's just a matter of whether or not we'll be able to let him be one, or if Snyder's balky back will prevent the team from getting anything for him. Sadly, we may not be able to utilize what is a very rare commodity, a cost-controlled, major-league ready backup catcher who would make $400k for the foreseeable future.

24) RHP Cesar Valdez - He was considered to be major-league ready last year, but injury struck at exactly the wrong time for Valdez this season. Just when the team needed another starter to permanently remove Yusmeiro Petit from the rotation after the trial and failure of Bryan Augenstein, and Valdez had been in the middle of a solid season at Reno, where it is notoriously hard to put up a sub-4 ERA, he wound up on the disabled list. The team sent him to the AFL to try to get some extra innings in post-injury, but he has gotten shelled in his time there, posting a 10.50 ERA in 12.0 IP. However, his most important metric, his GO/AO ratio, has held at a solid 2:1 in the AFL, and the three home runs in 19 hits allowed screams "flukey" for a ground-ball control freak, and lends us to believe that the AFL's hitter-friendly nature and thin air really hurt Valdez. Will be competing with Augenstein, Mulvey, and Buckner for just one spot in the rotation to start next season, although I can't see Valdez beating out any of them except maybe Mulvey. Could see us dealing him at some point mid-season to a team looking for a flier on a major-league-ready arm if we could get a bullpen piece in return (a la the Mulvey-for-Rauch deal, but with us giving up the prospect).

25) LHP Patrick McAnaney - Sure, he posted a disappointing season in Hi-A this year, but let's not forget a few things. 1) The California League is a hitter's league, so some slight regression was in order (although not necessarily to the extent we saw). 2) He posted a 0.89 ERA across two levels in 2008 with a WHIP just above 1 while striking out almost a batter per inning, a.k.a. the numbers of a Roman (or Greek, I don't discriminate) God. 3) He's a legitimate left-handed starting pitching prospect with some good upside, which are exceedingly rare. A bounce-back year next year along the likes of what Roemer put up this season, a brilliant start in Hi-A followed by solid performance during the majority of the season at AA, would shoot McAnaney back up the prospect list in a flash.

26) RHP Joshua Collmenter - I didn't have Collmenter on my list for a really long time, but I've seen a few reports recently that are extremely high on him (one had him ranked #12 in the system, absurdly high for Collmenter's age/level pairing), and as the list has slowly expanded from 15 to 20 to 30 to 40 prospects, Collmenter found his way on here. Led the D-Backs system in total strikeouts in '09 (over one per inning) as a 23-year-old in Hi-A, which is too old for the level, but nonetheless an impressive feat. Amongst BA's '09 list of best tools in the D-Backs system, the best of each individual type of pitch was as follows: "Best Fastball: Jarrod Parker / Best Curveball: Jarrod Parker / Best Slider: Jarrod Parker / Best Changeup: Josh Collmenter."

Both depressingly humorous due to Parker's dominance in injury status, and rather surprising in Collmenter's case to me, but clearly his numbers indicate it's a strikeout pitch. Always fun to see a guy in the low-minors have an advanced off-speed offering as his out-pitch, and that changeup should help Collmenter continue to breeze through levels where hitters simply aren't used to advanced off-speed offerings, at least from a scouting perspective. But given that he relies on off-speed stuff and doesn't possess a fastball that anybody has made sure to write about (i.e. is not very fast), it limits him to back-of-the-rotation innings-eater potential.

27) RHP Barry Enright - His ERA dropped from 2008 to 2009 across the hardest jump in the minors, Hi-A to AA, from 4.44 to just under 4, although the difficulty spike is reduced in our system by the hitter's-league-to-pitcher's-league transition from the Cal League to the Southern League. However, Enright's stock fell because of an alarming decrease in strikeout rate. His K/9 fell from 7.8 to 5.9, a legitimate worry for someone thought of as one of the top pitchers in the system in '08. Still young, and very advanced for his age, but that rate is going to have to bounce back up if he's going to regain his status as a top-10 prospect. If he can, of course, he'll vault back up the list, but don't expect his ERA numbers to remain this good if he continues to flirt with two K's every three innings and dependence on the good favor of the Baseball Gods.

28) RHP Eric Smith - A second-round pick from the '09 draft, and a guy you hear less about than the Borcherings, Belfiores, and Wheelers of the system, despite the fact that the organization loves him, and he was a big part of the SilverHawks' playoff run last year despite arriving in South Bend just 25.2 innings into his professional baseball career. Didn't have great raw numbers in Missoula, with a 4.21 ERA, but his 2.3/1 GO/AO ratio probably indicates that much of his struggles had to do with some horrible infield defense in the rookie-league. Yet, at South Bend, his metrics worsened to pretty awful levels (2 HR in 16.1 innings, with 16 hits, 6 walks, and 10 strikeouts), but he lucked his way into a 2.76 ERA. Is another one of the "fast-rising" college arms that the D-Backs have a huge habit of taking in the earlier rounds. You'd like to see us go for a high ceiling every now and then, but you can't complain with what Smith put up last season in his first taste of pro ball.

29) RHP Roque Mercedes - Of the organization's top-2 high-upside pure relief arms (now that Daniel Schlereth has been traded), Mercedes dramatically out-performed his Mobile teammate, Leyson Septimo at Mobile. Both are fairly old for their levels, with Mercedes having been held up in A-ball for a few too many years, and Septimo having failed as an outfielder before being converted to pitcher and starting the development process over, but yet both have blazing heat and giant K-rates that give the back-of-the-bullpen potential. Also, both started the 2009 season in Hi-A, although Mercedes did so in Milwaukee's system, and earned promotions to AA with fantastic performances at that level. But while Septimo fell apart after a solid start, Mercedes was able to stay afloat throught his entire stint in Mobile to the tune of a solid 3.32 ERA in 19 innings, setting himself up for a quick promotion to AAA in 2010 if he performs similarly to start the year in Mobile.

30) LHP Daniel Taylor - Really put in some fantastic work near the end of the season at Yakima, earning Northwest League Pitcher of the Week honors once, as detailed in the Draftee Report that was just put up today. Ridiculous K/BB ratio and great WHIP lead me to believe that the already-solid 3.53 ERA he accrued may have perhaps been negatively-impacted by some very bad fortune for Taylor, and his FIP/ERA split indicates this as well. Will be 22-years-old for all of next season, is a lefty, and will begin 2010 as perhaps the ace of the South Bend SilverHawks' rotation. A great find for his draft position, and if he can show that last year's position is something that can be maintained, or even built upon, he will find himself joining guys like Belfiore at the top of the system's arm prospects. A guy I'm pretty high on and expect to shoot up the list in '10, especially with the throwing arm and instant success at a moderately-challenging starting level.

31) LHP Leyson Septimo - Had such a promising start to the season at Hi-A, and was named to the World Team of the Futures Game. However, almost immediately after that Futures Game appearance, Septimo was promoted to AA and, although maintaining his amazing K-Rate of more than one per inning, his walk rate jumped by a factor of one-and-a-half, as he gave out 18 free passes in 18.1 innings. That pretty much explains all by itself how Septimo's 3.52 Visalia ERA shot up to 7.85 at Mobile. If he can reign in his control, there's no denying that Septimo has electric stuff and a rocket arm. However, because he failed as an outfielder before being converted to pitcher and starting his development over again, he has to get a move on getting up through the system, as he's already 24. To make matters worse, Septimo had an awful debut in the Dominican Winter League, where he needs to start rebuilding his confidence and control, for the Aguilas Cibenas, walking two, giving up one hit and two runs while getting nobody out in his first appearance. Could be an impact closer-upside guy, but could also flame out of baseball before you can say "one hundred miles per hour."

32) C Rossmel Perez - Is supposedly already a plus defender at catcher, which is often enough in itself to merit a long major-league career. Problem is, Perez's bat is just so absolutely awful that his defensive value cannot be moved past Mid-A. He can get on-base moderately ok, especially for a guy who just turned 20 in late-August, having drawn 30 walks (to 31 strikeouts) in 353 at-bats. However, he also had an ISO of .045, hitting just sixteen doubles with no triples or home runs amongst his 96 hits in 2009. But, playing a premium defensive position, and playing it well, at his young age makes him a guy to keep an eye on, as he may start to rise meteorically if he can find any semblance of a bat. But until he is at least comfortably below-average-to-fringe-average offensively rather than straight-up awful, I can't put him much higher than here.

33) OF Cyle Hankerd - Put up a passable-to-decent year at Mobile despite the absolute offensive suck around him (translated: no lineup protection), and he'll get a chance to break camp at Reno, where he ought to be able to put up some decent numbers. Draws his share of walks and has decent but not great power, but strikes out just a little too much to allow that to translate into great offensive output. Cutting back on those K's just a little would allow Hankerd to absolutely explode, especially given how much his power could manifest itself in the power-happy confines of Reno and the PCL. Don't be shocked if you see this kid closer to the top of the list next summer, and ready to fight to take over the spot Eric Byrnes will leave behind on the big-league squad.

34) SS/2B Taylor Harbin - Harbin, like Hankerd, really has only one thing stopping him from being great - strikeouts. It's rare to find a guy who plays in the middle infield yet clubs 14 home runs in a minor-league season as Harbin did for Visalia, but he also was retired on strikes an astounding 91 times. But, if he can limit those strikeouts, he may be an absolute power monster at a non-power position, a la Dan Uggla without the horrific defensive struggles. Perhaps we got a glimpse of just how good he could be in his short fill-in stint in Reno at the end of the season, when, in 21 at-bats, he struck out just once, and while the sample size is small and luck was there, he carried an impressive .381/.435/.619 line, with three doubles and a triple in just six games. The power is legitimate, but the discipline is missing.

35) SS/2B David Nick - Probably won't stick at shortstop, but with the type of numbers he put up this season, it may not matter. The kid is just about to turn 20 (in February - this keeps him above Goldschmidt), and put up above-average numbers in almost every offensive category for the Pioneer League. He's got good doubles and decent home run power, some base-stealing speed, draws a decent amount of walks, and limits his strikeouts. As he builds up strength, it's quite possible that some of those doubles could lengthen out some as well. There are improvements to be made, but he's certainly ahead of the curve for his age.

36) RHP Chase Anderson - Another guy fresh out of the '09 draft, racked up 48 K's in 45.1 innings, although mostly as a reliever, probably to keep his innings down after a college season at Oklahoma, especially given his scarily-small 6'1'' frame that rares back and throws 93 MPH. If he can stay intact, he has some serious potential, most likely in the bullpen to save his arm and keep his velocity up. The metrics all check out so far, although admittedly we're only dealing with a small sample size of innings.

37) RHP Charles Brewer - A 12th-round pick from UCLA in the '09 draft, scouting reports I've read have said that Brewer has benefited from leaving the Bruins, where the coaches tried to tinker with his delivery with the results typically being pretty bad. Back to his high-school form, Brewer struck out ten per nine innings at Missoula in '09, and while his age is a tad high for the level, he has a chance to be a really good find. Has the frame to end up starting, and actually had a significantly lower walk-rate as a starter, but also had a higher K-rate out of the 'pen, and we picked a lot of guys who we want starting ahead of Brewer. It'll be interesting to see what the FO decides to do with this kid, but it's a good dilemma for the organization.

38) 1B Paul Goldschmidt - Everything to say about Goldschmidt has already been said. The guy demolished the Pioneer Rookie League at an age at which guys who are considered good prospects are supposed to demolish the Pioneer Rookie League. He could be placed either in Mid-A South Bend or Hi-A Visalia to start next season, likely depending on what the organization does with Ryan Wheeler, and how he fares then will almost completely dictate what prospect value he has. The power is certainly there, but at higher levels and against more advanced pitching than what Goldschmidt went up against in Rookie-ball, a huge power swing isn't going to be enough. Also stuck at 1B defensively, so he's going to need to translate a lot of that '09 production to his next stop in the system.

39) SS Reynaldo Navarro. The kid is even younger than Perez, his 20th birthday having been December 22, and is a switch-hitting fast-running plus-defender at short, ranked by BA as the best infield defender in the D-Backs system, even above Pedro Ciriaco. There is some ridiculous potential to be found in Navarro, although he has to figure a few things out, like how to draw more walks (although his allergy is not as severe as Ciriaco's). Has lots of time to develop, and could be the hidden middle infield gem of our system. A good year offensively repeating at Mid-A would do wonders for Navarro's stock.

40) RHP Keith Cantwell - There are things that you can ignore and things you cannot ignore in baseball's complex world of statistics. You can be convinced to ignore a 4.11 ERA, which Cantwell put up at Missoula in '09. You CANNOT be convinced to ignore 44 strikeouts in 35.0 innings, which Cantwell also put up at Missoula in '09. That's 11.3 strikeouts per nine innings. 11.3 K/9. Absurd. Only walked 5 batters - for a rate of 1.3 BB/9. That's a 8.7:1 K:BB. Allowed just one home run. I just wish I had a legitimate scouting report on what the guy can throw. Yeah, he turned 22 in September, but if Goldschmidt can be considered a prospect for a 1.045 OPS at age 22 in the Pioneer League, Cantwell can be considered a relief arm prospect for his god-like metrics at age 22 in the Pioneer League. Don't be shocked if this late-round pick finds a way to rise quickly through the system and pass a lot of these '09 pitchers by next winter.

Also of note (listed by advancement of level): Hi-A RHP T.J. Hose had great numbers in South Bend and Visalia, but doesn't throw hard and doesn't have any projectionability left in his 5'10'' frame, leading me to believe he's a minor-league reliever, Rookie-level LHP Patrick Schuster, of consecutive no-hitter fame in high school, threw just five innings after he was lured away from a commitment to Florida when the D-Backs took him in the 13th round, AA RHP Matt Torra, who could revive his prospect status by regaining his K-rate after joining Reno next season, a season too late, Rookie-level RHP Bradin Hagens, a 6th-round pick in '09 who had some pretty bad metrics at Missoula but is considered by association with such a great class of prospects taken in the '09 draft.

Rookie-level RHP Kevin Eichhorn, one of the organization's "pedigree" guys, as the son of a former major-leaguer, and someone we were extremely high on when we picked him, but who hasn't thrown enough pro innings for there to be much of an evaluation of him yet, and Rookie-level 3B/1B Matt Helm, whose choice to sign with the D-Backs despite Borchering, Wheeler, Krauss, and Davidson all likely to end up at the corner-infield spots still baffles me, and is probably another kid I'm docking a bit too much because of the fact that he's a poor system fit. Further, IF Tony Abreu, RHP Billy Buckner, and RHP Ian Kennedy are no longer prospects, although none of them spent much, if any, time in the majors last year - If they were prospects, all of them would likely be top-6 for me with Parker, Allen, and Borchering.

Also, because the D-Backs have a good history with prospects from their Dominican Summer League affiliate, I've written up a few blurbs on some of the names you might hear out of the DSL. However, since I know very little about the DSL, I didn't feel it wise to try to fit them into the actual top-40 list.

- SS Antonio Sepulveda - Played in just one game for Missoula this year after coming over from the D-Backs DSL affiliate, and collected two RBI in his only hit. Supposedly turns 18 on the last day of 2009, although given the suspicious nature of ages for Latin-American prospects, this particular date strikes me as curious. BA ranked him as the fastest baserunner in the system, so I feel it's a safe assumption to say that Sepulveda has the kind of quickness to stay at shortstop and perhaps develop into a good defender there. Otherwise, he's clearly extremely raw, although the fact that he is already playing in the US at 17 is encouraging, unlike...

- CF Jeremia Gomez - Admittedly, these two guys are at this point of the list because frankly I have no idea where they slot, as I have exactly zero knowledge of the DSL, but tacked them on at the end because of the D-Backs' good history of getting major-league talent from their DSL team. BA ranked Gomez's outfield arm as the best in the system, however, so he'll find a way to make himself a good defender at some outfield position. Hit just .266, but still got on-base at a .351 clip, hopefully a sign of a little bit of patience, and displayed impressive power with a .424 SLG, totaling a .775 OPS. Is going to turn 19 in February, at least according to whatever documents we have, so he has time to develop, although I could see the organization trying to bring him to the US next year to get some at-bats against some better competition.

- OF Jose Jose - Jose Squared (greatest nickname ever) has a lot of issues right now. After striking out in over half of his at-bats in '08, he struck out 78 times in 169 at-bats in '09. But Jose (and you don't know if I'm referring to his first or last name there :-P) is mentioned here because of his remarkable power ceiling, and if he can ever shorten up his swing a little, you could see some special things from him. That power potential is what netted him a $150k bonus from the D-Backs, and he has the raw tools to be great, but really needs to get a move on getting himself straightened out, as he'll turn 20 next season and still is wallowing away with sub-.200 BA's in the DSL.

Wow, admittedly, while an absolute ton of work and a process that began around the time Zephon and I were writing our first '09 draft reports and has carried on half-way through December, this has been an amazingly fun experience for me. Honestly I'm already looking forward to seeing how things shake up for next year's list due to the unusual circumstance of so many lower-level guys at the top of the rankings who are going to find their first full-season of tests in 2010. Hope that, if nothing else, this gives you an idea of the bulk mass of guys we have in our system, even if you disagree with most of the rankings themselves. ;-) And, with the finale of our gigantic collaboration, I'd like to take the opportunity that I have to write a conclusion to an article to thank Zephon for being great to collaborate with despite this task being a lot of stress and a lot of work, and to everyone who has made our effort worthwhile by commenting and creating some darned interesting dialogue on all of these pieces.

2009 Draftee Report Card, Part Three: Outfielders and Catchers

Zephon — Wed, 02 Dec 2009 18:00:07 -0000

The Diamondbacks entered the 2009 draft with 4 extra draft picks in the first round and the 1/2 sandwich round, and came out of the draft with 37 out of 55 picks signed. Kieth Law ranked the D-backs as having the best draft in 2009, and other reviews of the Diamondbacks' draft have been positive as well. With so many quality players signed, this draft certainly has the potential to be best draft the Diamondbacks have had in their short history, and the team had a nice balance of high-upside high school talent and safer college picks at each stage of the draft. In this series of articles, we're going to take a look at each signed draftee's debut season, and see how they performed. If a scouting report on a player is available, we'll also take a look at that.

For week three of our 5 part prospect extravaganza we're looking at outfielders and catchers. I know someone is going to ask why we chose to stick the outfielders with the catchers, so I guess i should explain. The Dbacks just didn't draft all that many outfielders or catchers, so we chose to put them together to make the articles even in size. Next week we're looking at the first half of the whopping 19 pitchers the organization selected and subsequently signed. Then, when we're all done with the five weeks of '09 additions, both of us will offer our respective 2010 Amateur-opinion Diamondbacks top prospect lists.

The grades we used in this article are relative to the league average statistics and the average age of the players in the league that the player was in. In addition, each player's draft position and personal strengths and weaknesses are taken into account (i.e. how they were supposed to do). It's best to remember that the draft is generally a crap-shoot - you can never know which guys will make it and which won't. Some players' careers may be lost to injuries, others just may never be able to make the adjustments to the more advanced levels of hitting or pitching. If two or three players out of a draft become solid major leaguers, the draft is generally thought a success.

It's not that uncommon for a team to have a draft where none of the players drafted have any significant impact on the major league club (just ask Pittsburgh). It happens. It's why the draft is 50 rounds long and teams have 25 players on their big-league rosters. If one major league player out of this draft became an all-star and a handful of them became regular big-league players, the organization got a good haul. So when you see these grades, imagine that they're in a perfect world, where there's no injuries, and players don't regress. These are absolute best-case scenarios. We can't predict the future.

When you discuss outfielders for the Diamondbacks, the great trio the Snakes trotted out in the 2001 World Series season has to be mentioned immediately - Luis Gonzalez in left, Steve Finley in center, and Reggie Sanders, who we let leave the following offseason, in right. Prior to the arrival of the 2009 Turbo-Charged Justin Upton, these three were arguably (with the debate between Sanders and Danny Bautista being a toss-up) the best players the Diamondbacks had ever had at the three respective positions. Runners-up to the Big Three include Shawn Green, Bautista, Jose Guillen, and Devon White.

Ever heard of Chris Jones, Hensley Meulens, and Matt Mieske? We thought not. Well, they're also just a small sampling of the numerous unheard-of outfielders the D-Backs have trotted out in their short history. And for 2010 we have a promising group of young outfielders, with the likely starters being that aforementioned 22-year-old guy named Upton in right, 26-year-old Chris Young in center, and a platoon of 26-year-old Conor Jackson and 22-year-old Gerardo Parra in left. And there's a healthy competition for the fifth outfield spot quietly stirring between Alex Romero, Cole Gillespie, and the one man almost nobody wants to see remain in a Diamondbacks uniform, Eric Byrnes.

So the major-league outfield appears set for quite a while, and it's a good thing that it is, as there really isn't much talent other than Gillespie in the upper-levels of the minors ready to fill in. AAA, if Gillespie is headed to the major-league roster, will contain no outfielders of note, unless Romero, Cyle Hankerd, and Chris Rahl put a banana in your pants. AA will be where some of the higher-upside guys in the system start next season, most noteably Collin Cowgill and Ollie "Lightning" Linton, of completely different skill sets, but equally potent. Cowgill is a good power hitter despite his 5'9'' frame, and can get on base. Linton has almost no home run power, although he used his ridiculous speed to accumulate 28 doubles and a whopping 10 triples last season, reached base at a .394 mark, and stole 28 bases. Further, Linton's speed makes him a plus defender in center, and he plays with the kind of reckless abandon that fans used to love about Byrnes.

They may ready for the majors just in the nick of time, as Cowgill, a more advanced hitter than Linton, could step in to backup/platoon with Parra when Co-Jack is a free agent in 2012, and Linton could be ready to start when CY is a free agent in 2014 (team has option for 2015 season). But the team clearly didn't want to count on Cowgill has their only plan to replace Jackson, especially given the questions surrounding whether or not Jackson will return to his old levels of production, so it decided to use a few of its earlier picks in the draft on college outfielders with advanced bats and tool sets who could rise quickly and provide insurance for the outfield. Then, to add a high-risk, high-reward outfield prospect to the lower ranks of the system, the team picked tool-shed Keon Broxton after solidifying the quick-rising ranks of the system.

Now, to move on to the catchers. While usually a difficult position to solidify for many years, catcher has been a fairly stable position for the Diamondbacks throughout their history. While we haven't had enough luck to find a Jorge Posada or Joe Mauer with a plus bat for the position for a dozen years, and we played too well last season to bank on Bryce Harper in the 2010 draft, we have been able to get six years (and counting, for now) from Chris Snyder, five years from Damian Miller, four years from Kelly Stinnett (although in two stints with the team, from '98-'00 and '05), and one real stop-gap starter in Johnny Estrada. Further, we've even received some good consistency with backups, from Robby Hammock to Rod Barajas to Chad Moeller. And, even though Snyder's clock in Arizona may be winding down, it appears that we have ourselves set at the position for many years once again with Miguel Montero's breakout season and a good cameo from John Hester, who appears to be a fairly capable backup for years to come.

So, even though the system lacks any real high-upside catchers outside of 20-year-old Rossmel Perez, especially with the lackluster seasons just put in by former Sandwich-round pick Ed Easley and Rule 5 draftee James Skelton, the team didn't need to spend a high pick on a backstop. However, it is important to note that minor-league catchers are very important commodities. It is in the minor leagues that catchers begin to actually call games for pitchers, and the way a catcher handles a top prospect pitcher may have a huge impact on that pitcher's development. Therefore, it is crucial to have a solid group of organizational catchers who can call a good game for your pitchers and utilize each pitcher's strengths. So, while the team had the opportunity to address other organizational needs first, it chose to select Tyson Van Winkle in the tenth round, and signed two catchers taken in the eighteenth and forty-fourth rounds, respectively.

Round 1, Pick 17 - A.J. Pollock

Born: December 5, 1987 in Hebron, Connecticut School: University of Notre Dame Height: 6'1'' Weight: 200LBs Position: Center Field Bats: Right Throws: Right

Mid-A South Bend: ABs: 255 AVG/OBP/SLG: .271/.319/.376 XBH: 12 2Bs/3 3B/3 HRs K:BB: 36:16 ISO: .106 BABIP: .306 SB:CS 10:4 Errors: 1

Zephon: Pollock was one of our "safe" picks at 17 overall, a college bat that's should move quickly through the minors. Pollock is considered one of the better pure college hitters in this draft. He's a gap to gap line drive hitter who won't hit a ton of homers, maybe 10 to 15 at most. However, he does make up for that with his speed on the base paths. As he gets more experience he should become an excellent stolen base threat. Since he's recently converted from shortstop to the outfield, he still has a lot to learn defensively , but he should end up being a plus defender. Pollock got off to a slow start, heated up in July, had a poor August, and then had an excellent September to finish the year. Although his on base percentage isn't all that great, he does have a pretty solid 2:1 strike out to walk ratio. Pollock's slugging percentage was really dragged down by the miserable August. Overall, I think Pollock had a pretty solid debut, and I think it'll be interesting to see how he does next year in (most likely) Visalia. Grade: C+ (Short-term: C, Long-term: B)

IHSB: The way to describe the first pro season for the most oddly named man alive (Allen Lorenz Pollock = A.J. Pollock?) is solid but unspectacular, which is disappointing given that the organization expected him to rip through Mid-A South Bend given that Midwest League Competition wasn't foreign to Pollock, given that Notre Dame plays an exhibition game against the SilverHawks at the beginning of each season. He’ll nevertheless rise to Visalia because the organization wants to push him through quickly after a standout career and Notre Dame, and his age requires this for his top-prospect standing. Still a top-ten guy for the organization with his tools (speed, good contact bat, fielding, decent arm, light power) and occasional encouraging flashes of brilliance, but needs to show more consistency (or maybe some BABIP regression - his number for South Bend was .303, which, given his speed, may be low for Pollock), especially since the California League, which he’ll be entering, is a hitter’s paradise (although not quite to the proportions of the PCL). The acquisition of Tony Abreu likely means that the middle infield of the future is jammed up with Abreu, Taylor Harbin, and Pedro Ciriaco, so the once-possible move to second-base, which, in my unprofessional opinion, would have made Pollock's bat more valuable and saved outfield spots for power hitters, Justin Upton, and Chris Young's contract, now becomes nearly a complete a non-possibility unless the team starts to clear a couple prospects for major-leaguers at next year's or 2011's trade deadline. Good news with the stay in the outfield for Pollock is that his defense there is plus, as can be derived from his tool set. It can be thought of this way: you can get a plus bat with solid defense at second, or a solid bat with plus defense in center field. Grade: C+ (Short-term: C, Long-term: B-)

Round 2, Pick 64 - Marc Krauss

Born: October 5, 1987 in Deshler, Ohio School: Ohio U Height: 6'3'' Weight: 235 Position: Left Field Bats: Left Throws: Right

Mid-A South Bend: ABs: 115 AVG/OBP/SLG: .304/.377/.478 XBH: 12 2Bs/1 3B/2 HRs K:BB: 21:14 ISO: .174 BABIP: .359 Errors: 1

Zephon: With Justin Upton manning right field for as long as we can hopefully hold on to him, and Chris Young signed till 2013, left field is going to have a lot of guys competing for the job the next few years until someone completely locks down the position. Unfortunately for Marc Krauss, there's already Conor Jackson, Gerardo Parra, and A.J. Pollock ahead of him competing for the job. In addition, that doesn't even factor in a guy like Keon Broxton who's less projectionable, or guys like Borchering who may end up getting moved to the outfield. Getting past that, Marc Krauss put up a very nice season in South Bend, with an above average batting, on base, slugging, and isolated slugging percentages. I'd like to see a few more homers out of him next season honestly, all though I don't mind a high BA doubles hitter (see Conor Jackson). He's got a very solid almost 3:2 K:BB ratio, not too many strikeouts. For the season, Krauss was 21, a touch younger than league average. Hopefully he'll be able to move through the system quickly. Grade B+ (Short term: B Long Term: B+)

IHSB: There were two big concerns about Marc Krauss going into his first professional season. First was how he would handle the transition from aluminum bats and crappy, in-conference pitching to wood bats and good, professional-level pitching. Welp (misspelling intended for dramaticish effect), so much for that little dilemma. Second was where, and how well, could he play defense. Sadly, that one still hasn't been quite figured out. Nonetheless, he raked in his time in Mid-A fresh out of college, so it wouldn't be at all far-fetched if he ends up mashing the hitter-friendly California League and ends up in Mobile by the end of next season. Still, it's in cases like this where being an American League team would be really helpful. Especially since the position it appears he is most likely going to end up playing, left field (since right field is currently and hopefully forever-ly manned by a man named Upton), is home to Conor Jackson and Gerardo Parra (who is only going to be 23 next season to Krauss' 22) in the majors and guys like Cole Gillespie, Collin Cowgill, and South Bend teammate A.J. Pollock in the minors. Could definitely see this being a high-quality bat used as a trade chip in a year or two. Grade: B- (Short-term B, Long-term: C+)

Round 3, Pick 95 - Keon Broxton

Born: May 07, 1990 in Lakeland, Florida School: Santa Fe (Fla.) CC Height: 6'3'' Weight: 187 Position: Center Field Bats: Rights Throws: Right

Rookie-level Missoula: 272abs AVG/OBP/SLG: .246/.302/.474 XBH: 11 2B/9 3B/11 HRs K:BB: 93:19 ISO: .228 BABIP: .333 SB:CS: 6:1 Errors: 4

Zephon: First, I must note that Keon Broxton is NOT related to the Dodgers reliever. Keon Broxton is a player I'm probably a little too high on. I seem to always end up loving players that share my birthday(See Conor Jackson). Broxton is a multi-tooled outfielder who was raw but fast-improving during his junior college season. Physical comparisons have ranged from Rondell White to Matt Kemp. His strike zone judgement is sketchy, but it's obvious from his numbers that he not only has some serious power, but some serious wheels as well. I think this guy is definitely a diamond in the rough. As IHSB notes, he's basically Chris Young. If this guy figures out the strike zone, he could be something special. Take a look at his XBH numbers, especially the ridiculous 9 triples. Then look at his excellent .228 ISO. This is a guy I think you should be keeping an eye on over the next couple years. Grade: B (Short Term: B Long term: B+)

IHSB: Although it's worth noting that Zephon has a moderately unwarranted solid man-crush on Keon Broxton, it's not like Keon Broxton is bad. Quite the contrary - he plays a solid center field, has wheels, hits for power, and strikes out a ton. That's right, ladies and gentlemen, we've found Chris Young again. He's just 19 years old, just finished slugging all over the Pioneer League, and will definitely be in line for a slow path through Yakima next season to work on those on-base skills. It'll take a lot of work, but if this guy figures out that his bat doesn't need to go below his knees or above the letters, he'll do some special things. Grade: B+ (Short-term: B, Long-Term: B+)

Round 10, pick 306 - Tyson Van Winkle

Born: February 2, 1988 In Vancouver, Washington School: Gonzaga Height: 6'1'' Weight: 190 Position: Catcher Bats: Right Throws: Right

Low-A Yakima: ABs: 156 AVG/OBP/SLG: .244/.367/.308 XBH: 10 2B K:BB: 35:25 ISO: .064 BABIP: .314 SB:CS 4:2

Mid-A South Bend: ABs: 17 AVG/OBP/SLG: .059/.111/.059 XBH: None K:BB: 2:1 ISO: .000 BABIP: .067

Zephon: First I have to say it: Tyson Van Winkle is a funny name. Now to the analysis. At first glance, Tyson had a relatively mediocre season, but he did have two bright spots: His on base percentage in Yakima was 123 points higher than his batting average, and his strike out to walk ratio is a pretty decent 7:5 ratio. I'm not even going to bothering discussing his time in South Bend, other than the fact that it appears he was the victim of extremely bad luck, sporting a BABIP of .067. Winkle is the highest drafted catcher in the Dbacks' 09 draft. With the offensive skillset he's shown, i would think he'd best succeed as a defense first catcher in the mold of Chris Snyder, a guy who can draw walks and maybe hit for a little pop, although the latter he has yet to show. Grade: C (Short term: C- Long term C)

IHSB: 17 at-bats is too few to make any judgment on, so people should only bother to look at the Yakima numbers. From those numbers, we find one thing that Van Winkle needs to really improve upon in order to make himself a solid catching prospect. He needs to find some sort of power that can make him into an OPS "Moneyball" guy (hearkening to Oakland GM Billy Beane's book about deeper statistical analysis of baseball players, although the original definition of a "Moneyball" guy has been stretched to be anybody with a high OPS and low BA), the type of player that casual fans will hate because he'll have low batting averages, but the type of guy that the stat nerds (like me) will like because he gets the job done without making a whole lot of contact. And, of course, he needs to know how to handle a pitching staff. However, the Diamondbacks have historically been good at developing good defensive/game-managing catchers (see Chris Snyder, Rod Barajas). This makes the biggest question the Van Winkle's power, which is crucial to his development. Without power, Van Winkle flops, no questions asked. Grade: C- (Short-term C-, Long-term: C-)

Round 18, Pick 546 - Roidany Aguila

Born:10/22/1990 in Guaynabo, Puerto Rico School: Colegio Nuestra Senora de la Providencia HS Height: 5'10'' Weight: 175 Position: Catcher Bats: Right Throws: Right

Rookie-level Missoula: 13 ABS AVG/OBP/SLG: .000/.000/000 XBH: 0 ISO: BABIP: .000 K:BB 6:0

Low-A Yakima: 42 ABs AVG/OBP/SLG: .119/.156/.143 XBH: 1 double ISO: .034 BABIP .172 K:BB 13:1

Zephon: I won't bother with a grade for this one. Roidany Aguila did absolutely nothing in his 57 ABS. Even if he raked in those at bats, it wouldn't mean much, since it's such a small sample size. It does he appear that he was a victim of bad luck with a BABIP of 000 in Missoula, and BABIP of .172 in Yakima. The big positive for Aguila his age. He was 18 during the whole season, and only turned 19 after the season ended. Latin American prospects tend to be quite raw, and seem to take a while to develop, but Aquila does have youth on his side. Grade: Incomplete

IHSB: Nothing else to say here that Zephon didn't already. 57 ABs is too few, but the kid has time. Young catching prospects are always intruiging, but, especially coming from Latin America and having a position that requires a good relationship with the pitching staff, lots of development is a must. Grade: Incomplete

Round 26, Pick 786 - Daniel Kaczrowski

Born: 06/17/1987 in St. Anthony, MN School: Hamline U Height: 5'9'' Weight: 170 Position: Left Field Bats: Right Throws: Right

Low-A Yakima: 274ABS AVG/OBP/SLG: .266/.345/.343 XBH: 16 doubles, 1 triple, 1 homerun ISO: .077 K:BB 42:28 BABIP: .312 SB:CS 12:3

Zephon: Another one of the 'owskis selected by the Dbacks this year, and another one I'm rooting for purely based on his last name. In college Kaczrowski was a shortstop, but after signing with the Dbacks, Kaczrowski was moved to the outfield. I'm not sure if the move was permanent, or just to get him playing time, but it does reduce the value of his offense. Looking at his offensive statistics, there really isn't that much to say. The batting average isn't bad, but it's not that good. His on base percentage is pretty decent considering the low batting average, and his strike out to walk ratio is a respectable 4:3. In addition, all though his power numbers aren't that great, Kazcrowski makes up for it a bit with his excellent 80 percent success rate on the base paths. If Kaczrowski doesn't develop more power, he's going to have to succceed at the major league level by basically being the good version of Juan Pierre: a guy who hits for contact, draws a lot of walks, and swipe lots of bags. If he could get moved back to the infield, he'd be worth a lot more, but who know if that's even an option. Grade: C (Short term: C Long term: C-)

IHSB: Doesn't have the bat to make in the outfield, so even though it's where he played this year, he'll likely be found in the middle infielders section when it comes time to check back in on these guys. I can only speculate that the 5'9'' Kaczrowski was put in the outfield because, of the plethora of middle infielders that the Osprey had available to it, Kaczrowski was the one that the team has the least invested in, as he's a 26th round pick. However, given

his draft spot, putting up an OPS just shy of .700 while probably uncomfortable playing out of position is pretty solid. Another guy whose career goal is to be Augie Ojeda, the fact that the team is juggling him around the diamond already is absolutely detrimental to the part of his game he needs to focus on the most, his defense. It's a bit of shame when a team's handling of a player has a negative impact on the player's development, but in this case, given the sheer quantity of middle infielders covered last week, it's understandable that Kaczrowski was juggled. Grade: B- (Short-term: B, Long-term: C)

Round 44, Pick 1326 - Zach Varnell

Born: 06/25/1986 Pine Bluff, AR School:: U Arkansas Pine Bluff Height: 6'1'' Weight: 200 Position: Catcher Bats: Right Throws: Right

Low-A Yakima: 37abs AVG/OBP/SLG: .108/.267/.135 XBH: 1 double K:BB: 20:8

Zephon: The very last pick to sign with the Diamondbacks was Zach Varnell, a catcher out of Arkansas. There's really not all that much to say about the guy, as he had a pretty poor debut season. I think the only thing worth mentioning is the fact that his on base percentage is 159 points higher than his batting average, and he does have a pretty decent 2 to 1 strike out to walk ratio. Other than that, there's not a whole lot of a positives for this guy. He'll more than likely end up being minor league organizational filler, all though then again, there's been some other catchers that teams have signed in the last round that have turned out pretty well... Grade: Incomplete. And Pointless.

IHSB: There's a reason that Varnell was picked later than any other kid we signed - he's an organizational guy. Catchers are always valuable commodities, as mentioned in the introduction, and that's what Varnell is here for. The bat is pretty much irrelevant, as we can't have any real expectations of him ever reaching the major leagues. All we can honestly hope for is for Varnell to handle the pitching staff of Yakima, South Bend, or wherever the heck the team decides to put him (it really doesn't matter) well. And since I have no information on how Varnell handles a pitching staff, there is no grade that I feel I can assign here. Grade: Incomplete (and Irrelevant)

The Diamondbacks seem to be pretty set in the outfield with Justin Upton, Chris Young, Conor Jackson, Gerardo Parra, and Cole Gillespie. However, there's still some concern about Chris Young's offense, and Conor Jackson will be a free agent in 2012. Although the outfield is not the most pressing of needs for the Diamondbacks at the major league level, in the minors there's a lack of impact talent, so they took two promising (and hopefully fast moving) college bats in A.J. Pollock and Marc Krauss. In addition they added a high ceiling, toolsy and young raw prospect in Keon Broxton. Daniel Kaczrowski was drafted as a shortstop and will most likely end up being moved back to the middle infield next year.

Moving onto the catching position, the Diamondbacks seem to be pretty set with Miguel Montero, Chris Snyder (who will most likely be moved during this offseason), and John Hester at the major league level. While the team had the opportunity to address other organizational needs first, it chose to select Tyson Van Winkle in the tenth round, and signed two catchers taken in the eighteenth and forty-fourth rounds, respectively. Tyson Van Winkle has a chance to be a high OPS catcher in the vein of Chris Snyder; 18th rounder Roidany Aguila is a young Latin American talent that is a total wild card, and Zach Varnell fills the need for an organizational catcher.

Next week we'll begin looking at the whopping 19 pitchers taken in the draft, starting with pitchers A through Hale. Before we close, I, Zephon, would just like to once again make note of the resources we used to create this series of articles: Milb.com, Fangraphs.com, and Baseball-Reference.com; plus a special thanks to Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic and emilylovesthedbacks for doing the final edits to the article. I'd also like to thank IHateSouthBend for collaborating with me on these articles. With out him, this series of articles wouldn't be possible, and wouldn't be nearly as good... So thanks dude. And to the everyone else on Snakepit, I'd just like to thank you all for the positive feedback you've given us so far. Thanks for reading, and stay tuned next week for part three!

DBack to the Future - Minor League Report

paqs — Thu, 04 Jun 2009 21:27:45 -0000

More photos » by Rick Scuteri - AP

Bryan Augenstein was just one of the prospects who pitched well this week.

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I was thinking, if I were a baseball fan in Reno, I would not be a happy man. At the beginning of the season, eight of the top ten prospects in the Diamondback system were below AAA, Valdez and Buckner being the exceptions. A Reno fan would naturally have assumed they'll get to see some of these prospects this year or even next. Well, so far this year, no less than 5 players were called up to the majors straight from AA. The same thing happened with Reynolds and Upton two years ago. To make things even worse for Reno fans, the GM said the other day something along the lines of "Parker will stay at AA this year, and pitch for a spot in the rotation next spring". I don't have the stats, but this skipping of a development stage can't be very good. Anyway, on to this week's report.

Reno:

The Aces went 3-5 last week and are currently on a 4 game losing streak. Their 23-30 record is good for third place in the division, 9.5 games back.

At the plate:

Alex Romero keeps hitting well, going 10-25 with 5 walks for the week to improve his line to .340/.412/.470
Ruben Gotay has been hot of late, going 9-23 with 7 walks this week. His line is .289/.404/.425.

On the mound:

Cesar Valdez had his best start of the season on Friday, throwing 8 shutout innings, allowing only two hits and a walk along with six strikeouts. His ERA in six May starts was 3.09 and his overall ERA is at 4.21.
Bryan Augenstein had a "quality" (the dumbest stat alive) start this week, going six innings and allowing 3 runs. He now has 10 strikeouts and only one walk in 12 AAA innings.
Jason Urquidez was called up from AA (that happens as well) last week and he has impressed so far. He allowed 2 runs in 7 innings of work, with 5 strikeouts and a walk. He threw 20 innings in mobile with a 3.15 ERA, 20 strikeouts and 6 walks.

Mobile:

The Bears have been white hot of late, having a nine game winning streak stopped on Monday. In all, they went 5-2 this week to improve their record to 32-22, 3.5 games behind first place.

At the plate:

Cyle Hankerd just keeps hitting. He went 7-18 with six walks to improve to .363/.435/.531. He is the league top three in OPS and wOBA. I wonder at what point is enough enough when it comes to Chris Young. Does he need to hit .170 over 500 AB to get benched or demoted?
Chris Rahl is another outfielder doing well, going 12-29 on the week, with 4 multi hit games. His line for the year is .293/.380/.471
Orlando Mercado has 6 multi hit games in his last ten, and he's hitting .323/.408/.451 on the year.
Pedro Ciriaco has improved his hitting since he was moved to the top of the order. He went 9-30 this week, but his line is still a mess: .261/.294/.320. He does have 11 stolen being, and was caught only twice.

On the mound:

Matt Torra threw a complete game three hitter on Sunday, walking just one and striking out four. Add that to his last outing, and he now threw 16 scoreless innings to lower his ERA to 4.04. He was named the league's pitcher of the week.
Cody Evans flirted with perfection yesterday, taking a perfect game into the seventh inning. His final line: 7 IP, 1H, 0BB, 4K and his ERA on the season is 4.58.
Jarrod Parker's start this week was more of the same: 6 innings, two runs allowed, but he walked four again, and he has 20 walks and 20 strikeouts in his last four starts (20.2 IP). The GM said he needs to learn how to be economical with his pitches and we're just not seeing that of late. His ERA in 36 IP is 3.00, but major league hitters are going to punish those walk severely.

Visalia:

The Rawhide were 4-2 during the week and 33-19 record leads the division by three games.

At the plate:

Not a good week for Visalia hitter, and I couldn't find anyone with an above average line

On the mound:

Bryan Shaw started two games last week, allowing a combined one run over 11 innings, with three walks and seven strikeouts. His ERA on the year is down to 4.43.
Josh Collmenter took the mound twice last week, with impressive results. He followed a complete game on Wednesday (1 ER, 7K) with 5 scoreless innings on Monday. In his last three outings, he has allowed one run in 21 innings with four walks and 15 strikeouts.

South Bend

The Hawks went 3-3 on the week and they are at .500 for the season, at 25-25, 6.5 games back of the lead.

At the plate:

Alberto Diaz is on a 10 game hitting streak, going 8-25 and adding 2 home runs to lead the team with 7. His line on the season is a pedestrian .246/.284/.399.
Justin Parker was 6-19 with 4 walks on the week to improve his line to .312/.401/.439

On the mound:

Brett Moorehouse had two starts this week, and they were both good. He threw seven innings on Thursday, allowing three runs on 9 hits with 1 strikeout, and another seven innings on Tuesday, allowing only one run on five hits with seven strikeouts. He didn't walk a batter in either start.
Randy Rodriguez began his season in mid May due to injury, but his first four starts have been good. He allowed 5 earned runs in 23.1 innings for a 1.91 ERA.

That's all for this week's report. It should be a very interesting week for our system with the draft, so we'll see what happens next.

D-backs to the Future: week ending May 27th

Jim McLennan — Thu, 28 May 2009 11:00:16 -0000

They say that which doesn’t kill you, only makes you stronger. Well in that case our bullpen must be stronger than ever right now. I don’t know how you survived the last two games, but overall it’s been a great week for the big league club, and as you’re about to see, a good week for our minor league affiliates. Since I’ll be out of town tomorrow, I’m writing this on Wednesday and I’ll ask Jim to post it tomorrow. So, on to another minor league report! Leave a comment if you like it, I hate to think I’m wasting my time writing these if no one’s reading.
-- Paqs

Reno Aces

The Aces have been ace-like this week, losing on Thursday before winning five straight behind strong pitching and the return of Josh Whitesell. Their record is 20-25 and they are out of the cellar in their division, 7.5 games back of Sacramento.

At the plate:

Whitesell picked up where he left off, hitting 9-22 with 4 walks and only three strikeouts since he got back. His line for the year now is .367/.478/.523 (wOBA+ 127) and he’s on a four game multi hit streak.
Alex Romero has put together a 7 game hitting streak, improving his line to .324/.393/.459 with 19 walks and only 17 strikeouts.

On the mound:

Bryan Augenstein got his first career AAA start and allowed four runs in six innings, striking out five and walking just one.
Cesar Valdez worked his third consecutive great start, allowing two runs in six innings with five strikeouts and two walks. He allowed four runs in his last three starts combined (17.1 IP). His ERA is now down to 5.08 after being in double digits a few weeks ago.
After a rocky start to his AAA career, Hector Ambriz had his second consecutive great start, going seven innings, allowing two runs with seven strikeouts and a walk. His ERA is down to 4.84.
Travis Blackley continues to impress out of the bullpen, tossing five scoreless innings with six strikeouts and no walks this week. Observe this split: 5 starts, 21.2 innings, 20 runs, 8.31 ERA versus 6 relief appearances, 17 innings, 4 runs, 18:2 strikeout to walk ratio! I think Blackley found his niche.

Mobile Baybears

The Bears (I can’t even type this without thinking of the SNL skit :) are rolling as well, losing two games before going on a four game winning streak to up their record to 26-20, 5.5 games out of the division lead. They did it mostly with pitching, allowing only four runs total in their four wins.

At the plate:

Cyle Hankerd is showing no signs of slowing down, with two three-hit games last week to improve his line to .360/.419/.525. Ideally, you’d want more than 10 walks from him, but I guess there’s nothing wrong with his eye if his OPS is .944
Orlando Mercado keeps hitting well, slugging his first homer of the year last night and going 6-14 on the week to improve his line to .312/.389/.462
James Skelton is steadily turning his season around, going 6-14 with five walks and two doubles to improve to .225/.384/.283. His batting average isn’t much, but it will rise with his BABIP which is currently some 100 points below his career line. On the plus side, he leads the system with 31 walks and he cut his strikeout rate by half this season. I like the guy!

On the mound:

The good news about Jarrod Parker is that he allowed 1 run in each of his last three starts to lower his ERA to 2.52. The bad news is he walked 11 batters in 14.2 innings and couldn’t go past the fifth inning in any of the games. Still, if he’s struggling by allowing one run in games, I’ll take that.
Barry Enright has been remarkably consistent this year, not allowing more than three earned runs in any of his nine starts. He had his best start of the year on Monday, throwing 5.1 shutout innings to lower his ERA to 3.49.
Dan Schlereth showed improved control this week, throwing 2.2 innings while walking just one and striking out three. He has 19 strikeouts and 11 walks in 18 innings, with an ERA of 1.50

Visalia Rawhide

Visalia went 2-3 this week, keeping their division lead at 2 games with a 28-17 record. They had a slow week at the plate, scoring just two runs in their three losses.

At the plate:

Kyle Greene belted two homers last week, and he leads the team with 6 on the season. His line is .272/.339/.450

On the mound:

Josh Collmenter threw 7 shutout innings on Thursday to lower his ERA to 3.86 on the season, after allowing three or more runs in five straight starts.
Trevor Harden had his best start since getting promoted to Visalia, throwing 7 innings of one run ball, with three strikeouts and one walk. His ERA is 3.26 in 19.1 innings.

South Bend Silver Hawks

The Hawks also went 2-3 for the week, playing a number of rain shortened games. Their record is 21-22, good for fourth place in the division, 7.5 games back of the lead.

At the plate:

Brendan Duffy hit 6-17 with 2 triples and 2 walks last week and he leads the team in all the triple slash stats with .333/.427/.440. At 24 he is way too old for this level though.
After a very slow start to the season, Alfredo Marte is starting to turn his season around. He is on a 6 game hitting streaking, hitting 7-22 with a homer and four walks on the week to improve his line to .275/.326/.413. He is very athletic but needs to become more selective at the plate.

On the mound:

Wade Miley had a good start last night, allowing one run in six innings with seven strikeouts and a walk. He has a 3.61 ERA on the year, with 38 strikeouts and only 8 walks in 47.1 innings pitched.
Brett Moorehouse has been quietly impressive this year, not allowing more than three earned runs in a start. He had his best start on Friday, allowing 2 runs in a career-high eight innings, with four strikeouts and a walk. His ERA on the year is 3.46

That’s all for this week!

DBack To The Future - A Minor League Report

paqs — Thu, 21 May 2009 14:36:57 -0000

More photos » by Rick Scuteri - AP

Gerardo Parra has been smoking hot since his promotion from AA. But who will be the next player to follow him to the show?

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As you take your time recovering from an amazing double header (hey, at least you didn't stay up all night to watch it), I'm pleased to bring you a minor league report. It's been a while since the last one, but the minors aren't that interesting when most of your best prospects are already playing in the bigs. In light of that, this might be a bit shorter than usual (on second thought, no it won't). In order to be as short as possible, I'll be using wOBA+ and tRA+ a lot. Basically, they are good true talent measures, and they are normalized (tRA+ and wOBA+ of 100 is league average, 150 is 50% better than league average, etc.). If you need more info, I'll get into it in the comments. I'll start with Reno.

Reno

The Aces are struggling. They are 2-10 in their last 12 games, and 15-24 overall, good for last place. The runs have dried since Whitesell got called up and Murillo got banned for using steroids, and the Aces have scored 5 runs in their last 4 games. Well, Whitesell should be back tonight, hopefully not for long, as I'm sure he can hit major league pitching, 26 at-bats with a BABIP of .150 notwithstanding.

At the plate:

Alex Romero is hitting .318/.387/.450 for a wOBA+ of 111 and I wouldn't mind seeing him come up for a bit. Even if he's as poor as he was for us last year, it'll be a big upgrade over Chris Young.
Chris Roberson is hitting .262/.330/.456 (wOBA+ of 107) and leads the team with 4 home runs.
Luke Carlin (104), John Hester (103), Trent Oeltjen (101), Ruben Gotay (99), Brandon Watson (97) and Rusty Ryal (97) have all been close to league average in wOBA.

On the mound:

Billy Buckner, who will get called up to start for the DBacks tomorrow, has pitched well in his last three starts, allowing 3 earned runs in 16.1 innings with 16 strikeouts and 7 walks to lower his ERA to 3.81 on the year. His tRA+ as a starter is 129, good for 12th in the PCL. Incidentally, the best tRA+ in the league belongs to Evan MacLane, who we traded earlier this season. Let's hope we don't get to regret this.
After a terrible start to the year, our reigning minor league pitcher of the year, Cesar Valdez, was good in his last two starts, allowing 2 earned runs over 11.1 innings. His 5.45 ERA is nothing to write home about, but in an extreme hitters league, he is above average, as his tRA+ (104) shows.
LHP Travis Blackley is showing signs of life since he was shifted to the bullpen, allowing 4 runs in 12 innings, with 12 strikeouts and only two walks.
Tony Barnette (tRA+ of 95), Hector Ambriz (77) and Seth Etherton (68) complete the Reno rotation.
Bobby Korecky (151) and Doug Slaten (147) rank among the league leading bullpen arms in tRA.
Jose Marte (86), Josh Ellis (68), Jon Coutlangus (41) and Abe Woody (35) are varying degrees of terrible.

Mobile

Things are not looking any better in Mobile. Since Parra and Augenstein got promoted, they had a six game losing streak, and their record stands at 22-18, 5 games back of first place. The pitching is still a strength, and as you're about to see, Hankerd is a one man wrecking crew.

At the plate:

OF Cyle Hankerd is not showing any signs of letting up, hitting .358/.429/.533 and his wOBA+ of 129 is 7th in the league and a little bit better than what Parra was doing before his callup. He might actually be the best choice should we send Young down, considering how well Parra has adjusted.
C Orlando Mercado is hitting .307/.386/.427 with a wOBA+ of 113, second in the league among catchers.
3B Ricardo Sosa (109) and OF Chris Rahl (107) have been productive, while James Skelton (93), Evan Frey (92), Mark Hallberg (82), Yunesky Sanchez (81), Pedro Ciriaco (75) and Peter Clifford (64) have been disappointing.

On the mound:

Jarrod Parker has no problems with AA hitters, with a 2.66 ERA and 25 strikeouts in 20.1 IP. His tRA+ of 131 is among the league leaders.
Wes Roemer, who replaced Augenstein in the rotation, has a 2.45 ERA after two starts and a shiny 138 tRA+.
Matt Torra (88), Barry Enright (86) and Cody Evans (52) complete the rotation. Enright actually has an ERA of 3.82, but he's allowed 8 home runs already.
The monster bullpen is led by Dan Stange, who has a 2.95 ERA in 18.1 IP, with 16 K and only 3 BB. His tRA+ of 145 is good for 5th in the league among qualified relievers. Also performing well are Jason Urquidez (3.15 ERA, 20K:6BB in 20 IP, 141 tRA+), Clay Zavada (2.60 ERA, 18K:7BB in 17.1 IP, 128 tRA+) and Scott Maine (2.41 ERA, 20K:6BB in 18.2 IP, 113 tRA+). Dan Schlereth leads the bullpen in ERA with 1.76, but that masks some serious problems with command (10 walks in 15 innings) and his tRA+ is only 99.

Visalia

The Rawhide cooled off significantly after the 10-0, but they still lead the league with a 26-14 record.

At the plate:

Leadoff man Ollie Linton is putting together a good season, hitting .315/.436/.397. He is second in the league with 27 walks and 11th with a 117 wOBA+.
1B/LF Ryne White is hitting .307/.422/.378 with a 114 wOBA+. He also displayed a good eye (22 walks) but has no homers in a power position.
Colin Cowgill leads the team with 5 home runs, and his line is .299/.393/.503 with a 112 wOBA+.
After a slow start to the season, 3B Kyle Greene found his stroke, and he's on a 7 game hitting streak, to push his line to .271/.338/.421 and a wOBA+ of 107.
C/1B Sean Coughlin (.260/.333/.442, wOBA+ of 107) was promoted to AA last week.
Taylor Harbin (wOBA+ of 101), Ed Easley (99), Konrad Schmidt (93) have been close to average, while Elijah Rumler (80) has been poor.

On the mound:

Josh Collmenter somehow has an ERA of 4.58, even though he struck out 37 batters in 37.1 IP, walking only 6. His tRA+ of 143 is second in the league among qualified pitchers.
Pat McAnaney is an interesting case. His ERA (3.82) and FIP (3.54) are good, but his tRA+ is only 94, which suggests he's giving up a lot of well hit balls and benefits from defense and luck.
The rotation is completed by Bryan Shaw (tRA+ of 102) and newcomers Trevor Harden (76) and Cristian Beltre (64), who have made slow starts to their high A campaigns.
The bullpen has been very good, anchored by Jordan Norberto (1.93 ERA, 27K, 9BB in 23.1 IP) who is second in the league with a 170 tRA+. Bryan Henry is 6th in the league with a 139 tRA+ (2.73 ERA, 18:2 K:BB in 26.1 IP). Jorge Perez (113 tRA+), Jeff Dietz (107), Chase Christianson (106) and Leyson Septimo (106) have all performed well in relief.

South Bend

The Hawks are on a five game losing streak that dropped them to 18-20. They lie in fourth position, 8.5 back of the division lead. The pitching is a strong point, and the hitting, well, not so much.

At the plate:

CF Brendan Duffy is hitting really well, his line is .331/.428/.419 and his wOBA+ of 122 is good for 12th in the league for batters with more than 100 PA.
2B Jake Elmore's line is .252/.366/.423 and he leads the team with 20 walks. His wOBA+ is 116.
Jarrod Parker's older brother Justin is hitting .316/.386/.444 with a 115 wOBA+. He hit 3 doubles in a game on Tuesday.
Rossmel Perez (wOBA+ of 108), Alfredo Marte (103), Victor Estevez (98), Reynaldo Navarro (93), Isaias Asencio (88) and Alberto Diaz (87) complete the lineup.

On the mound:

Wade Miley is pitching well, with a 3.92 ERA and 31:7 K:BB in 41.1 IP. He leads the team with a 127 tRA+.
Ryan Cook has not allowed more than 3 runs all year, thanks to a power sinker that gets him a ton of groundballs. He is 5-1 with a 2.85 ERA and a 105 tRA+.
Brett Moorhouse (tRA+ of 90, ERA of 3.77), Sean Morgan (72, 3.42) and Taylor Sinclair (58, 4.22) complete the rotation
The bullpen is led by Terry Hose (tRA+ of 109, ERA of 1.15), Justin Mace (116, 4.15) and Bryan Woodall (112, 5.89)

Winter Wonderland

Jim McLennan — Sun, 04 Jan 2009 19:52:03 -0000

The pro baseball season may have finished, even here in Arizona, but it's been going strong in South and Central America, with a large number of Diamondbacks prospects (and some current players), both pitchers and hitters, seeing action. Leagues have been going on in Venezuela, the Dominican Republic and Hawaii, so with most of the seasons now over or winding-down, let's take a look and see what the results have been like so far.

We'll start in Hawaii where, as noted elsewhere, Hawaiian Winter Ball looks unlikely to continue, having not extended its contract with MLB, meaning this could therefore be its final year. Three Diamondbacks were members of the West Oahu CaneFires this season, with Mark Hallberg perhaps the most impressive. The infielder, who turned 23 last month, had been nothing special at High-A Visalia, batting .283, but enjoyed his time in the 49th state, batting .362 with a .906 OPS. The best raw numbers went to Cyle Hankerd, however, with a line of .318/.392/.545, leading the team in HR and RBI (5 and 33 respectively, in 25 games). That's the same number of homers as he had in 125 games for Double-A Mobile. Finally, our new catcher, James 'Jack' Skelton also took part, and continued his habitual on-base tear, with an impressive .405 OBP.

The Mexican Winter League had two Arizona starting pitchers - though one, Edgar Gonzalez, may or may not make it back to the team in 2009, having been released by the club. He went 4-1 for Hermosillo in seven starts, posting a 4.46 ERA. New Australian left-hander Travis Blackley made ten starts for Mexicali, including a complete game, and went 2-3 with a decent 3.88 ERA in those games [a couple of bad bullpen outings inflated his overall figure to 4.24]. Of particular note was a good K:BB ratio of 3:1 as a starter. No Arizona hitter has appeared in more than six games so far, and the regular season is now in its last week, so we'll move rapidly on.

The Dominican League saw our players appear for Estrellas de Oriente, and was similarly pitcher-heavy. Evan MacLane pulled double duty, appearing both here and Venezuela: between the two, he had twelve starts and a 4.00 ERA. He struggled a bit more in the DWL, being winless in nine outings there, though showed excelled control, allowing eight walks in 41 innings and just nine in 63 overall, compared to 52 strikeouts. Jailen Peguero made 18 apperances out of the 'pen and had a 3.00 ERA, with three saves in five changes. However, he did walk too many people - fourteen in only eighteen innings, along with three wild pitches. On the plus side, opposing hitters batted only .190 off Peguero, but Estrellas still missed the playoffs, winning only 16 of 50 games, so their season is over.

The same issues plagued young southpaw Jordan Norberto, with 14 walks in 17.2 innings of work, but a .212 average against. He only just had his 22nd birthday on December 8th, so is still young enough. He spent both 2007 and 2008 at Class-A South Bend, and having had an ERA above five both times, needs to step things up this year. The other Diamondback to pitch a significant (ten-plus) number of innings in the DWL was Esmerling Vasquez, who made six appearances all told, totaling 13.1 IP, with a 3.38 ERA. He began as a starter, but was shifted to a relief role after walking five batters in his first six innings. That seemed to help, as his K:BB ratio was 6:2 in the remaining 7.1 frames, with only one earned run allowed. He was our minor-league Pitcher of the Year in 2007, but struggled in Tucson last season, where his ERA was 6.82 in 83 innings.

Finally, we move to the Venezuelan Winter League, with a number of fine performances by AZ players. Leading hitter is probably Jesus Merchan, shortstop for the Sidewinders last season. His success is not unexpected, since he batted .339 for Tucson, but his on-base skills were notable. Merchan has given his team a .423 OBP, and decent wheels [4 triples in 79 at-bats], help his OPS reach .980. My first thought was, move to 2B this year in Reno, with the aim to replace Lopez in 2010. However, he'd then be 29, and his defense seems poor [21 errors in 107 games at SS last year]. Miguel Montero had an interesting winter. He started off very poorly, going just .185 (5-for-27) at the beginning of the year, with Bravos de Margarita. However, after a trade took him to Caribes, Miggy has been en fuego, giving his new team a line of .302/.358/.530, with eight homers in just 149 at-bats. Could probably do with some more walks, and he's K'd more than three times as often, worse than in the majors last season.

Gerardo Parra (above) also impressed observers; he is only 21 but batted .329 for Aguilas de Zulia, leading the team with 124 total bases and 15 SB, on his way to a .908 OPS. He had almost as many walks as strikeouts (31:36), giving him an OBP above .400, and is seen by some as the most likely internal prospect to replace Byrnes [if EB stays his contract]. Our well-known 2008 outfielder, Alex Romero, went one better, getting more walks than strikeouts (19:18), to tack onto a .311 average. However, his familiar lack of power - five extra-base hits in 44 games - means his SLG is lower than his OBP, and the overall OPS of .754 is disappointing.

Moving on to the pitchers, we've already covered Evan MacLane, but the one who stands out was Juan Gutierrez. As noted previously, he had a one-hitter among his 13 starts, for a 5-2 record and 2.63 ERA; even that's after a bad outing last time, before which it was 2.30. His K-rate is good - 56 in 65 innings, compared to 20 walks - and he is keeping the ball in the park. Gutierrez has allowed only a pair of home-runs, one in that most recent start, to franchise-mate Javier Brito. That can't be said for Yusmeiro Petit, who continues to be plagued by the long-ball, to the tune of seven in just 39 innings. Hitters overall are enjoying the Petit Unit, to the tune of .316, and he is still winless after eight starts. His last three outings have resulted in a total of 23 hits and 11 earned runs over 13.1 innings of work. Maybe picking up another starter is a wise idea...