SB Nation - Jeff Fulchino

Ed Wade gets his relievers, but what did the Astros get?

DyingQuail — Thu, 10 Dec 2009 07:41:22 -0000

More photos » by Elaine Thompson - AP

Congrats man, you're average in every way, but you just got paid.

So an hour or so ago I said that I would have to wait until tomorrow to process the day's events, but I lied. A solid hour of tossing and turning while visions of mediocre relief pitchers parading as closers danced in my head lead me back to my laptop. Mediocre relief pitchers parading as closers, that's kind of what we got today. Not so much in Lindstrom, but definitely in Lyon. Now I can't help but think Dave Cameron is being a little hyperbolic in his assessment of Brandon Lyon, but everything he says is correct. Lyon isn't good. Period.

He's average in every respect. Compare him to anyone else already in the Astros bullpen and you'd lose him in the haze of mediocre total-skill sets. Alberto Arias and Chris Sampson have high ground ball percentages. Jeff Fulchino is just a clydesdale that is dependable. Matt Lindstrom has life his is stuff that portends to better things to come. Sammy Gervacio has an awesome delivery that gives him difficult to distinguish stuff. Brandon Lyon literally is average in every respect. Pick a stat or a trait. Look at it. It'll be average.

Lyon will definitely go down as a not good signing. Will it ever be a signing that's cited more than two years after the contract is completed? No. Carlos Lee was a bad signing, so was Barry Zito. Lyon is just a poor signing—for the Astros. If any other team inked Lyon to this deal, it probably wouldn't resonate as much as it does right now. There's the Ed Wade loves relief pitching too much factor. There's the luck inflated ERA factor (thank God they're upgrading defense a SS, we think). And there's the this team doesn't have the payroll flexibility to afford this factor. Those three factors make this signing laughable to outsiders and repugnant to Astros fans.

But I don't think it's bad because of in 2011 and 2012, just 2010. We never had enough money to start with this winter. Ed Wade had just made a pretty savvy little trade with the Florida Marlins to bring in someone who would add depth to a bullpen that didn't need a closer because the Astros won't be good enough to justify needing a true closer, much less over paying for one (which they didn't even end up doing).

Really, he could have just stopped there. I would have continued to actually be content and happy with the state of this team for at least a few hours. And then the malaise of being an Astros fan could have set back in when I realized I was happy not because my team had gotten better, but because my team didn't do anything to make themselves measurably worse off.

But now it appears as though they have.

Can we afford Miguel Tejada back? Nope. Can we—realistically—afford a worthwhile fill in at 3B? Probably not. At this point, offering LaTroy Hawkins arbitration has never looked so good to me.

Now, I'm left wondering the following questions: Why did we have to move so fast to sign a relief pitcher who could be a closer? There were still options out there; we didn't really even need someone else (i.e. another closer-esque reliever is a luxury, not a necessity). Why move so fast on Lyon and offer him everything he wanted? Why not try to whittle him down in price or years (preferably price, but only scantly)? What will Ed Wade use to justify Lyon versus someone with promise and an ability to add worthwhile value to the team...like say Mike Gonzalez?

(Please don't let it be his 2009 ERA, please, please, please, please don't. I won't be able to take it. Something of mine will break after I hurl it against something if I awake to an Ed Wade quote about Lyon's ERA.)

For a brief moment it felt like the Astros had faced the reality of their situation: they have to stop pretending they are contenders. Lindstrom was a savvy trade to provide a cost-controlled insurance for the backend of the bullpen for the next few years. It allowed us wiggle room to try and fill in other gaps that could actually have placed us in the faint pale of the glow of contenders. After that trade I smiled because I was proud of Ed Wade. He'd made a move that was exactly what this team needed.

But now, with Lyon inked for too much, we're hamstrung. It's like Ed Wade is waiving the white flag on finding help at 3B or SP and figured he'd roll the dice on Lyon and see what happened. It's ilke he's forgotten that things like signing Joel Pinero late in the game can make the a huge difference, if you have the money to do it at the time. Or he's forgotten about all the players who signed late in the ball game at just about every position last year, too.

If you haven't picked up on the meme of this post, it's that I can't figure this deal out. It's really not a terrible deal for any team that has payroll flexibility and a total dearth of options for their bull pen. But for the Astros—especially after the Lindstrom trade—Ed Wade dropped the ball in a big way. Yes, Lyon might bounce back to his 2008 control and have his 2009 strand-rate and BABIP, but why gamble one-half to one-third of your budget on it?

To answer this post's title: The Astros got nothing the needed, just something a few in the front office might have wanted. Now they're left wanting things that can't afford. So, I guess they got screwed hamstrung. There's really nothing about Lyon's signing that can bring cause to justify it. There was a lot in the Lindstrom trade, but that's been buried under the mountain of inanity that is three years and fifteen million dollars for Lyon.

Of course, we also have yet to hear the final word on Lyon's deal. So maybe myself, Dave Cameron, and just about every baseball person I follow on Twitter will be eating crow tomorrow...or so I can hope.

The Astros and Arbitration: The annual non-sensical decision

DyingQuail — Tue, 01 Dec 2009 22:17:37 -0000

More photos » by Alan Diaz - AP

This man is going to get paid now. It could have been prevented.

Browse more photos »

I don't want to come off as too persnickety, I know that Ed Wade took a bold step forward this afternoon when he sent Jose Valverde an arbitration offer. Great, grand, wonderful. But here's the thing, Valverde's not going to accept that offer. I think that's been a foregone conclusion for just about every observer of Valverde's free agency. So yes, I'm happy we'll be netting some kind of first round compensation pick, but I'm not happy that we'll now be forced to either overpay or lose out on LaTroy Hawkins.

Why will we have to do this? Because this is a team without a closer and a GM who loves relief pitching. So either Ed Wade accepts his fate and rolls the dice on in house options. I don't know which it'll be, but I'm not pleased with either end result (unless one of our in house options set's the NL on fire in 2010).

This will be the decision of this year's free agent crop I will not understand. LaTroy Hawkins is a good—not great—late inning relief pitcher who could easily slot into a closer-eque position for this team and provide serviceable work on our mediocre-to-below-mediocre team at a relatively reasonable cost. That is, if other teams don't try and overpay him for the same role or even just as their eighth-inning guy.

Prior to a few hours ago, Hawkins was a questionable free-agent to invest in because of the detrimental Type-A tag hanging off his right arm. All Ed Wade had to do was explain to Drayton McLane is that by not offering Hawkins arbitration, he'd start hearing sizable offers that the Astros, or really any rational actor, likely cannot prudently match. Or that with an arbitration offer the Astros would get one of two results: teams become gun-shy due to the draft picks if Hawkins declines it, or the Astros get Hawkins back for probably no more than $4 million for one year if they go to arbitration.

Who, upon seeing that logic, says no to that?

So either Drayton McLane is wholly illogical, or Ed Wade did not frame this decision very well to his boss. One of the two. But now there's no going back on this one and I think we'll see an interesting race to overpay for guys on the fringe of closer (like Hawkins, Gregg, and Sherril) as the hot stove heats up.

People on the short list of being happy with this news are:

LaTroy Hawkins' agent (bigger cut)
The Boston Red Sox (my pick for who signs Hawkins)
Jeff Fulchino, Chris Sampson, Alberto Arias (all possible closers in waiting)

That's it, no one else makes out well in this transaction (that I can think of in the heat of the moment).

To sum: it's good that we'll get one compensation pick—and that the news wasn't entirely bad because it didn't cause me to throw my laptop at the wall in frustration—but the Astros managed to still botch this royally.

**UPDATE** As I watch the reports roll in and see that pretty much no one is offering arbitration, I feel better—slightly. Then I read Dave Cameron's breakdown of arbitration risk-accessment and I went back to being angry:

If a team is assessing their actual risk as the full potential salary that they would have to pay out if a player accepts, they’ll be overstating their own liability and miscalculating the costs and benefits of an arbitration offer. I would suspect we will see multiple teams do just this tomorrow, leaving value on the table by being overly risk averse. [emphasis added]

The Astros most impressive performances in 2009: The relievers

DyingQuail — Tue, 17 Nov 2009 17:39:23 -0000

More photos » by Alan Diaz - AP

Browse more photos »

Why are we fretting so much about Jose Valverde and LaTroy Hawkins? I mean aside from the fact that they're talented pitchers with above average ability. Closers, and the set-up men whose shoulders they stand on, enter games in situations where we as fans have our stomach in knots. In someone like Valverde's case, he toes the rubber and pumps 97 MPH fastballs while mixing in, most of the time, a devastating split-finger pitch.

With starters, each at bat doesn't have the feeling of importance that a closer's does. A starter always has another inning or two to work with, and there are still plenty outs for the offense to work with, too. But relievers are leveraged.

Why the waxing sentimental? Because that's how I arrived at today's post. Instead of combining starters and relievers into one mess of who had the best WPA added in a single game, I decided to isolate which relievers had the best WPA added in a single PA.

No. 1 - LaTroy Hawkins on June 13th

This was an awkward day of Hawkins. Valverde was working himself back into the job that Hawkins had dutifully filled for him in his extended DL stay. So, I guess it's understandable that Hawkins starts on of his final 9th inning save opportunities a little shaky.

via www.fangraphs.com

With the Astros leading 6-4, Hakwins quickly found himself with runners on first and second and none out. Hawkins rebounded with a GIDP on Justin Upton that netted him an astounding .293 WPA on a single PA due to a leverage index of 5.91 (a run at that point would have been like Jon Garland giving up 5.91 runs to start the top of the first, or half a Jason Jennings here or here).

No. 2 - Jelf Fulchino on June 7th

Cecil Cooper trots out Tim Brydak to start the bottom of the seventh. Two batters latter, Cecil Cooper brings in Jeff Fulchino to clean up a bases loaded, no outs jam. Yes, Fulchino gives up two runs, but the situation had an RE of 2.30, so technically Fulchino saves our butts, because the third run puts the Pirates in the drivers seat.

via www.fangraphs.com

Finally, though, Fulchino is on the receiving end of an Adam LaRoche double play and the inning is over. For his trouble, Fulchino is credited with .245 WPA, and has the satisfaction of knowing that he had the second most leveraged out of the year.

No. 3 Jose Valverde on September 29th

Some of us may not remember this one because, well, the Astros were depressing to watch at this point. However, there was still some excitement to experience.

via www.fangraphs.com

The story is pretty similar to the above. Valverde got himself in trouble to start the inning, but rallied to get out.Yet again, another double play ball, netting him .236 WPA on the GIDP of Laynce Nix. This begs the question, do the pitchers get the credit or does the defense? Or does it matter because all we're looking for are spectacular moments in relief pitching?

Like yesterday, what are the moments I missed because I did this by the numbers? Only, no poll because having to actually read the article to vote didn't mesh well with getting a lot of responses.

Thursday Morning Astros, etc. Round Up: Michael Bourn's big day

DyingQuail — Thu, 12 Nov 2009 15:12:33 -0000

That's right ladies and gents, an Astros player took him some awards season hardware. I have to admit, I was a little suprised when my phone lit up with a text from HLP informing me that Michael Bourn had won himself a gold glove. Why? I don't know. It makes sense, but I guess I'm just used to Astros players not mattering in these sorts of things because they play for...well...the Astros.

Today is pretty much all about the big day that Bourn had, so let's break it down:

Excitingly enough, Richard Justice offers us this open invitation in his reaction to Bourn's Gold Glove:

The next time I judge a trade too soon, I want someone to stuff a large sock with Twinkies and smack me in my pretty face.

Ed Wade, as a favor to all of us, please make a trade this offseason. Please, please, please, please, please. Other than this tempting invitation that I will hold in my heart, Justice doesn't offer much of anything new.

Beyond the Box Score takes a look at who won the NL Gold Gloves and who should have based on bUZR plus FanScouting reports. Thankfully, they don't take issue with Bourn's Gold Glove, which would have rankled me. I think there were at least ten different occasions this season where we discussed how off Bourn's UZR seemed in comparison to what we were seeing. As clack noted yesterday, Bourn was among the best in RZR, and had an astounding 113 out of zone outs. It's that final number that I think demonstrates how great defensively Bourn is. It can't be easy playing CF in a park like MMP and covering for one of the worst LFers in MLB. Remarkably, Bourn does it, and does it well.

The Unofficial Scorer weighs in on a few subjects (even giving FarmStros some love), but I think he sums Bourn's Gold Glove the best of anything I've read on it yet (no offense, HLP):

Normally, I'm pretty statistically-minded, but I've come to trust [UZR] less and less, for measurements over any unit of time below careers. Bourn was right around zero for much of the season, and I really don't think my eyes were deceiving me on his true worth in the outfield.

Rounding out Michael Bourn's ego inflating day (seriously, what a day) was the announcement that he was voted as the team's MVP by the BWAA. Sure, I argued for Wandy Rodriguez, but I won't find any fault with this vote. HLP, I guess you were right.

What's particularly awesome about the awards (Wandy was pitcher of the year, Jeff Fulchino ROY—very deserving), was this:

Veteran right-hander Brian Moehler won the Darryl Kile Good Guy Award, which is given to a player who exhibits good character.

File that under random career accomplishments, but congrats nonetheless to Mr. Moehler.

Astros Roster Breakdown: The 2008 Offseason

davoag — Mon, 02 Nov 2009 13:00:23 -0000

by Pat Sullivan - AP

Look, waaay in the back...It's Ed Wade!

View full size photo »

Let's start the week off by looking at what the Astros did before and during the 2009 season. No major trades went down, nor were there any major signings. In fact, it sounds much like I'm sure this offseason will. Please give me your own take on the moves in the comments and what grade you'd give to Ed Wade for last season.

Move One: Signed Mike Hampton - The lefty Rob Lowe came at a bargain, earning 2 million dollars with 2 million in performance bonuses. I'm not sure if he met those, though. Hampton proved to be just what we thought he'd be: a little below league average and not very durable. For the money, though? You're not going to get much more.

Move Two: Signed Ivan Rodriguez - As a catcher with the Astros, it's fair to say Pudge failed. He started enough to break the record, but was pretty terrible when he did play. His OPS+ of 75 seemed to belie what fans saw on the field. It appeared that Pudge was having a meaningful impact on games, though his stat showed differently. Look at his splits in close and late situations, though: .359/.388/.406. Go even deeper, and you can see his numbers in high leverage situations: .280/.313/.320. Of course, this was offset by the fact that Rodriguez struck out all three times before getting to the late innings. He was a frustrating player, but his signing wasn't terrible, just ill-conceived.

Move Three: Signed Jason Michaels - Another guy who should have been better than he was. His career average of .269 should have made the Astros bench stronger, but Michaels couldn't put it together and struggled for much of the season. It also didn't help that he wasn't the best defensive replacement as a fourth outfielder. Still, who else were you going to get for 750K?

Move Four: Signed Russ Ortiz - With Hampton, he formed the "Let's Hope the Old Pitchers Can Revive With Us...Oh, Wait, HGH and Steroids are Banned...We're Screwed" duo. It's not the catchiest of names, but it is effective.

Move Five: Re-signed Doug Brocail - Doug was a pleasant surprise in 2008, but injuries derailed him last season. Who'd have predicted that the 42-year old reliever would have injury trouble? They're usually so reliable...Considering Brocail had injury trouble two years before, the Astros did well by stocking up on relievers with minor league deals, just in case. Was it 2.75 million well spent? Probably not.

Move Six: Re-signed LaTroy Hawkins - As I mentioned in my reliever rundown, Hawkins proved to be a reliable reliever for a second straight year. Whether this was due to the league he was in or to some sort of mechanical adjustment, the Astros have more than reaped the reward for a 3.5 million dollar contract.

Move Seven: Claimed Jeff Fulchino - Waiver claims like this show just good your advance scouts and major league scouts have to be. Fulchino provided a nice addition to the bullpen when Backe and Brocail both got hurt. Plus, Fulchino came much, much cheaper than either Hawkins, Valverde or Brocail. Oh, by the way, according to FanGraphs, he was also worth 3.4 million, which is more than all three of those relievers combined.

Move Eight: Signed Aaron Boone - I won't be glib here, since Boone had to go through too much this season. I respect the hell out of him for coming back and playing late in the season, but the Astros had to have wanted more out of him on the left side of the infield than they got. Still, here's hoping Boone continues to be in good health and can be a productive player, if he so chooses.

Midseason moves

Move Nine: Claimed Chris Coste - The former Phillie probably wishes he were in the World Series right now instead of the unemployment line. He should have been a lefty specialist off the bench, but hit worse against lefties than righties. Coste also didn't provide the pop the Astros needed when Berkman went down with an injury. Would they have been better served calling up Mark Saccomanno?

Move Ten: Traded away Ivan Rodriguez for Jose Vallejo and Matt Nevarez - This trade would have looked even better if the Rangers had made the playoffs and had to throw in another player. Still, the Astros basically paid 1.5 million for these two prospects. Not too shabby...

Move Eleven: Traded Drew Sutton for Jeff Keppinger - Boone's heart condition probably necessitated this trade to shore up the left side of the infield. As one of the commenters pointed out in the Mackanin post last week, Keppinger was only played at short after Mackanin put him there. Kepp did an okay job filling in for both Tejada and Blum. This trade happened before Chris Johnson broke his hand, but was certainly fortuitous. The Astros really didn't have anyone who could fill in for Blum on a regular basis.

Move Twelve: Claimed German Duran - This was a move for next season. We'll have to wait to see if Duran can contribute before passing judgement on it.

Overall, it was a mixed bag for GM Ed Wade. He made all the moves he could with no budget, tinkering around the margins and getting somewhat solid players. In both trades, it appears he got value, as Kepp is a good bench player and Drew Sutton didn't make much of an impact in Cincy, getting 66 big-league at-bats with an OPS+ of 68.

The Pudge signing was mandated by Drayton (I think), but give Wade credit for standing up to his owner enough to flip Rodriguez for some value. As disappointing as 2009 was in so many ways, Wade hasn't been among them. He's proven he can let Bobby Heck work his magic in the draft and can make those little moves that Gerry Hunsicker used to make so well.

Overall grade: B

Astros Roster Breakdown: The Relievers

davoag — Tue, 27 Oct 2009 12:00:21 -0000

More photos » by Al Behrman - AP

Reliever Sammy Gervacio

Browse more photos »

Your Tuesday morning special is a look at the 2009 Astros bullpen. First, though, I thought we could consider a question:

Can a minor league reliever be considered a prospect?

Almost all the Astros homegrown bullpen additions this decade have been starters in the minors before making the major leauge club. Guys like Billy Wagner, Brad Lidge and Chris Sampson made a successful transition into relievers, but started almost all of their games on the farm. Lately, though, the Astros have been moving prospects into the bullpen earlier in their minor league career and still giving them a shot to make the club.

As a comparison, only three players in the past 13 years have made their major league debut for the Astros after not starting more than 10 games in the minors. They were:

Wayne Franklin, came over from Dodgers, but was a minor league reliever before being called up in 2000. Franklin started just seven games in the minors before coming up during the first year at Enron, which was a wasteland of relievers. Remember the best pitcher in the 2000 bullpen, Joe Slusarsky? Yeah, it was bad. Franklin was sent back to the minors in 2001 and put into the starting rotation, much like the Astros are talking about doing with Wesley Wright (more on that later).
Brandon Puffer, went through three organizations before being called up in 2002, but only started six games in minors. Puffer doesn't show this as much, because he bounced around so much early in his career. Plus, his funky sidearm delivery was probably not though of as something that would hold up in a starter's role, forcing him into the 'pen.
Alvin Morman was called up in 1996, but only started 19 games in the minors. Even then, he was only used as a starter for part of one season (1994), when he started all 19 games at Double-A Jackson. Morman was a relatively high pick (6th round, 1991), but stayed in the pen for most of his career, as some leftys do.

That all changed this season when Sammy Gervacio made his big league debut. The 24-year old never started a game in the minors before appearing in 29 games this season over two stints in Houston. Another reliever, Chia-Jen Lo, is doing well in the Arizona Fall League after signing out of Taiwan last season. Lo also has been used mainly as a reliever along with a couple other mid-level prospects, like Danny Meszaros. Still, there is not a good history of guys with this profile succeeding. It will be interesting to track whether this is a trend that is changing or if these prospects will flame out once they get to the show. With that, let's get on with a look at the bullpen...

Tim Byrdak, LHP

2009 Season Stats: 1-2, 61 1/3 IP, 3.23 ERA, 76 games, 58 strikeouts, 36 walks, 10 HR, 1.22 WHIP, 129 ERA+

FIP: 5.29

Leverage: 24 High, 13 Medium, 36 Low

BABiP: .188

GB/FB: 0.71

Pitching Runs Created: 30

Notes: For a lefty specialist, Byrdak sure developed into a solid pitcher for the Astros. It really surprised me that he pitched in so many high leverage situations. His peripheral stats are worrying, as he was EXTREMELY lucky to give up so few hits and without a good defense, Byrdak would not have done nearly this well. The two things that jump out (other than his FIP and BABiP) were his homer rate (1.5 HR/9) and his walk rate (5.3 BB/9). Both were right in line with his career numbers, but are not great, especially the walk rate. At the same time, Byrdak has put up three straight seasons with ERAs of 3.00, so he's doing something right. Hopefully, he'll still be effective in 2010.

Chris Sampson, RHP

2009 Season Stats: 4-2, 3 saves, 55 1/3 IP, 5.04 ERA, 49 games, 33 strikeouts, 21 walks, 2 HR, 1.57 WHIP, 82 ERA+

FIP: 3.24

Leverage: 25 high, 10 medium, 14 low

BABiP: .335

GB/FB:1.17

Pitching Runs Created: 15

Notes: Talk about a hard luck season. Sampson suffered muscle spasms in his shoulder and was put on the DL in July. He came back but was ineffective and was finally optioned to Round Rock on August 13. Sampson pitched in some very tough situations and was somewhat unlucky before the injury, but his shoulder may still not be right. His FIP was much lower than his ERA, but his strikeout rate plummeted. Basically, Sampson was very hittable and that needs to change if he's going to be successful in 2010.

LaTroy Hawkins, RHP

2009 Season Stats: 1-4, 11 saves, 63 1/3 IP, 65 games, 2.13 ERA, 45 strikeouts, 16 walks, 7 HR, 1.20 WHIP, 195 ERA+

FIP: 3.92

Leverage: 35 high, 10 medium, 17 low

BABiP: .283

GB/FB: 0.86

Pitching Runs Created: 39

Notes: Hawkins put up great numbers, especially considering he pitched in more high leverage situations this season than any other Astros reliever. He'll be 37 next season in his 16th big league season. Fun fact: Hawkins actually started 129 games in the minors and was used as a starter by Minnesota for three seasons in the majors before beginning his very lucrative career in the bullpen. Hawkins was probably a little lucky this past season and his strikeout rate isn't anything to write home about. Still, with the rest of the bullpen being as solid as it is, I could see Hawkins closing next season and filling in the rest of the 'pen with Arias, Fulchino and Gervacio.

Jeff Fulchino, RHP

2009 Season Stats: 6-4, 82 IP, 61 games, 3.40 ERA, 71 strikeouts, 27 walks, 7 HR, 1.18 WHIP, 122 ERA+

FIP: 3.52

Leverage: 18 high, 14 medium, 28 low

BABiP: .281

GB/FB: 0.93

Pitching Runs Created: 37

Notes: Thank you Kansas City Royals. The Astros plucked Fulchino off waivers last December and were rewarded with a great season out of the bullpen. In face, Fulchino's season almost makes up for how bad the other Royal imports (Jason Smith, Tyler Lumsden) were. While his strikeout rate doesn't strike fear in the hearts of other teams, Fulchino did avoid giving up home runs for the most part. He also wasn't used in a ton of high leverage situations, so his stats were perfect for middle relief.

Jose Valverde, RHP

2009 Season Stats: 4-2, 25 saves, 54 IP, 52 games, 2.33 ERA, 56 strikeouts, 21 walks, 5 HR, 1.13 WHIP, 178 ERA+

FIP: 3.50

Leverage: 26 high, 13 medium, 10 low

BABiP: .261

GB/FB: 0.66

Pitching Runs Created: 34

Notes: Valverde was exactly what the Astros needed. He brought a swagger to the mound that this team lacked. Injuries robbed him of time this season and the fact that the Astros weren't very good down the stretch held his save total down. You can't ask for much more out of a closer, though, as he managed to strike out one an inning and his home run rate was the lowest since 2005. He has enough concerning factors to his season that I worry about giving him a long term deal. For one, his strikeout rate was the lowest of his career and his BABiP meant his season was more lucky than you'd like. With a couple more hits landing, his numbers could easily have skewed upwards more. Since he's already suffered through an injury-riddled season, what will happen if the Astros give him a 4-to-5 year deal and he's hurt for half of it?

Alberto Arias, RHP

2009 Season Stats: 2-1, 45 2/3 innings, 3.35 ERA, 42 games, 39 strikeouts, 19 walks, 1 HR, 1.49 WHIP, 124 ERA+

FIP: 3.11

Leverage: 12 high, 8 medium, 22 low

BABiP: .340

GB/FB: 1.68

Pitching Runs Created: 18

Notes: When discussing Ed Wade's best moves, Arias has to be among them. While not a home run-type move, Arias was gotten for nothing and has turned into a very effective reliever. Arias had a higher-than-normal BABiP, meaning he was a little unlucky in posting a higher-than-league average ERA. The only thing that's a little concerning about Arias going forward is his strikeout rate is a bit low. Without missing a few more bats, Arias is going to have a hard time giving up just one home run again next season.

Wesley Wright, LHP

2009 Season Stats: 3-4, 44 2/3 IP, 5.44 ERA, 49 games, 47 strikeouts, 25 walks, 9 HR, 1.75 WHIP, 76 ERA+

FIP: 5.14

Leverage: 7 high, 18 medium, 24 low

BABiP: .358

GB/FB: 0.82

Pitching Runs Created: 14

Notes: The word is the Astros would like to make Wright into a starter. With his age (25) and relative lack of innings to this point, it may take an entire season at Triple-A for Wright to make the transition. Having more left-handed starters, though, can't be a bad thing. Wright has been effective and used in semi-big situations. While Cooper didn't have as much confidence in him as Byrdak (judging by leverage situations), Wright did an adequate job and still strikes out a ton of batters. Even if he loses 2 strikeouts per nine innings off his rate by moving into the starting rotation, he'll still be very effective.

Sammy Gervacio, RHP

2009 Season Stats: 1-1, 21 IP, 2.14 ERA, 29 games, 25 strikeouts, 8 walks, 1 HR, 1.14 WHIP, 194 ERA+

FIP: 2.25

Leverage: 7 high, 7 medium, 15 low

BABiP: .319

GB/FB: 1.24

Pitching Runs Created: 15

Notes: As I mentioned above, Gervacio was one of the few Astros prospects to make the big league without starting a game in the minors. Gervacio was the only Astro with a double-digit K/9 rate, and had a smaller walk rate than in the minors. Still, Gervacio didn't pitch many innings, but showed enough to be a big contributor next season. He was used in a few high leverage situations and didn't embarrass himself. In fact, his usage pattern was somewhat surprising for a rookie. His FIP and BABiP all showed that his performance was not a fluke, though with his innings, the sample size wasn't big enough to draw huge conclusions. I would be happy to use him in the 'pen in 2010, though, instead of a more expensive option (see: Valverde, Jose).

Geoff Geary, RHP

2009 Season Stats: 1-3, 20 IP, 8.10 ERA, 16 games, 12 strikeouts, 10 walks, 4 HR, 2.00 WHIP, 51 ERA+

FIP: 6.05

Leverage: 6 high, 4 medium, 6 low

BABiP:.382

GB/FB: 0.54

Pitching Runs Created: 3

Notes: Geary is a good example of why teams shouldn't spend a ton of money on non-closers. Relievers are so fungible, it's hard to justify spending the money for a multi-year contract when their performance can vary so greatly. Take Geary; in 2008, he was a good addition to the 'pen and one of the better throw-ins to the Brad Lidge trade. In 2009? Geary finished the season in the minors and was granted free agency. The righty never could get locked in this season, even though he was used about the same in leveraged situations. His BABiP was high, which means he was probably unlucky. I could see Geary having a productive year for someone in 2010, though it probably won't be the Astros.

Doug Brocail, RHP

2009 Season Stats: 1-0, 17 2/3 IP, 4.58 ERA, 20 games, 9 strikeouts, 13 walks, 4 HR, 1.95 WHIP, 91 ERA+

FIP: 7.28

Leverage: 4 high, 2 medium, 12 low

BABiP: .298

GB/FB: 0.94

Pitching Runs Created: 6

Notes: It's safe to say the Doug Brocail experiment didn't work out as the Astros had planned. It's not that Brocail did poorly. In fact, you could argue that he was Houston's most effective reliever in 2008. However, his age may have caught up to him this season, as Brocail only played 20 games before suffering an arm injury (?). What's interesting is looking at what leveraged situations Brocail was used in this season. For someone who was so good a season before, Cooper obviously didn't want to use him in pressure situations in 2009, as he was used in twice as many low pressure situations as anything else.

Chad Paronto, RHP

2009 Season Stats: 0-0, 6 2/3 IP, 12.15 ERA, 6 games, 3 strikeouts, 1 walk, 4 HR, 2.40 WHIP, 34 ERA+

FIP: 10.50

Leverage: 0 high, 0 medium, 6 low

BABiP: .407

GB/FB: 0.50

Pitching Runs Created: 1

Notes: Paronto has been great for Round Rock the past two seasons, but battled injuries in 2009. He was called up in September and gave up a ton of home runs, but was a tad unlucky. Paronto is exactly the kind of arm the Astros have collected at Triple-A the past few years. He's serviceable but probably only needed in spot duty in the majors, if there is an injury.

Billy Sadler, RHP

2009 Season Stats: 0-0, 1 1/3 IP, 13.50 ERA, 1 game, 2 strikeouts, 1 walk, 0 HR, 2.25 WHIP, 31 ERA+

FIP: 2.40

Leverage: 0 high, 0 medium, 1 low

BABiP: .500

GB/FB: 1.00

Pitching Runs Created: 0

Notes: The only Astros pitcher to not get at least one Pitching Run Created, the story was that Wade promised Sadler he'd be added to the big league team before the end of the season. That's why he got the call-up at the end of September, though Sadler didn't pitch much at all. Fun moments in small sample size: Sadler's FIP was 11 runs lower than his ERA, but only because he struck out two in his 1 1/3 innings. Of course, now Sadler's a free agent and probably won't come back. But we'll always have that 1 1/3 innings.

Roster Breakdown: The Money

davoag — Fri, 09 Oct 2009 21:12:42 -0000

I mentioned there would be a more in-depth look a the Astros 2009 roster today and this is the first part of that attempt. My plan is to look at three different phases of the roster, starting with the monetary worth of all the players, followed by how the position players performed and then how the pitchers did. Hopefully, by knowing what the Astros were last year, it will help predict what they need to do in 2010 to be successful. Onward and upward after the jump...

Helped by the wonderful people over at FanGraphs, I charted the Astros entire roster on both their value in dollar amounts and their actual salaries, which I got from Cot's Baseball Contracts. I added all of them up to get the team's total value for the season and how much money they actually spent. I should also note before we dive into analysis that I adjusted the pitcher's values for their batting, which I'll talk about more in a minute.

The Astros players performed at a value worth 95.2 million this season, while the payroll came in around 106.2 million. This means the team underperformed the payroll by about 11 million dollars. I was a little surprised at this, as I mentioned yesterday in the Dave Clark story, the Astros outperformed their pythag record by six wins. I thought this might translate into value for the club. It did, but not to the extent I expected.

In fact, if we discounted the pitchers' batting, the team would have outperformed payroll by about 7 million, but some of the pitchers, like Oswalt, Wandy and especially Moehler, all were hugely affected by poor batting. Moehler went from one of the few bargains on the team to being one of the biggest detriments. Oswalt also underperformed his contract by about 3.7 million, though he was one of a handful of Astros to contribute double-figure value.

On the plus side, Michael Bourn and Hunter Pence combined to produce 33.9 million of the Astros overall 95 million value. Both are playing on pre-arbitration contracts, so were the two biggest values on the team. Wandy was also a huge value, adding 11.8 million over his 2.6 million dollar contract, but lost 3.8 million because of his hitting. That seemed a bit high to me, but as I thought about it more, the only way pitchers can't hurt their team batting-wise is to pitch in the American League, and I'm not sure Wandy would have put up the same value if he had pitched in the tougher league.

Who else were values? Jeff Fulchino came in fourth, with a 3.2 million positive difference, while Mike Hampton was fifth at 2.6 million. It also didn't hurt that Hampy added 0.8 million with his bat. Chris Sampson and Alberto Arias were the next two on the list and the last two that topped 2 million in positive difference between their contracts and their worth. Anther surprise for me was Edwin Maysonet outperforming his contract by one million.

The other side of that coin is the guys who underperform, and the worst at that was Carlos Lee. At -7.9 million, he had the biggest negative difference on the team. The only two players coming close to that were Darin Erstad and Jose Valverde, who both clocked in with negative-5 differences. Doug Brocail and Tim Byrdak were the next two on the bottom, followed by Geoff Geary and Roy Oswalt. The reason so many of these guys are relievers is that their salary greatly exceeded their worth. In fact, the only one who added positive value to the team was Valverde at 3 million. Quick shot analysis of this is that relievers really are fungible, so it's silly to pay more than a million dollars for all but the best closers. Otherwise, you're wasting monetary resources on a position you can fill many different ways.

As for Lee, that contract is an absolute albatross. His hitting is great and all, but his defense hurts the club out in left field and he won't always hit like he's doing now. On the current open market, you can definitely find a bargain that can hit 30 homers and bat .280 for left field without spending 10 million per year, much less the 18.5 Lee earned in 2009.

That's all the analysis I'm going to do now, because I'll get into more detailed looks at player performance later, but I've included the data I used for the entire team for you to peruse below. Look for more posts on the managerial hiring process too as we get more information.

	WAR	Salary	Difference
Bourn	18.700	0.435	18.265
Pence	15.200	0.439	14.761
W. Rodriguez	14.400	2.600	11.800
Fulchino	3.600	0.400	3.200
Hampton	4.600	2.000	2.600
Sampson	2.700	0.449	2.251
Arias	2.500	0.402	2.099
Quintero	2.300	0.610	1.690
Rodriguez	3.100	1.500	1.600
Gervacio	1.900	0.400	1.500
Blum	2.600	1.200	1.400
Keppinger	1.700	0.428	1.273
Maysonet	1.400	0.400	1.000
Norris	0.400	0.400	0.000
Sadler	0.000	0.402	-0.402
Towles	0.000	0.402	-0.402
Manzella	-0.200	0.400	-0.600
Kata	-0.300	0.400	-0.700
Berkman	13.600	14.500	-0.900
Tejada	11.800	13.000	-1.200
Paronto	-1.100	0.500	-1.600
Bazardo	-1.200	0.405	-1.605
Ortiz	-1.100	0.750	-1.850
Michaels	-1.200	0.750	-1.950
Boone	-1.200	0.750	-1.950
Lopez	-1.600	0.400	-2.000
Hawkins	1.500	3.500	-2.000
Johnson	-2.000	0.375	-2.375
Moehler	-0.200	2.300	-2.500
Wright	-2.100	0.425	-2.525
Matsui	2.400	5.000	-2.600
Coste	-2.500	0.460	-2.960
Backe	-1.500	1.500	-3.000
Paulino	-2.600	0.405	-3.005
Smith	-2.800	0.500	-3.300
Oswalt	10.300	14.000	-3.700
Geary	-2.000	1.700	-3.700
Byrdak	-3.200	1.000	-4.200
Brocail	-2.200	2.500	-4.700
Valverde	3.000	8.000	-5.000
Erstad	-4.100	1.750	-5.850
Lee	10.600	18.500	-7.900

Reds make thrilling late season run towards mediocrity, sweep Astros 6-5.

Brendanukkah — Thu, 17 Sep 2009 03:21:32 -0000

More photos » by Al Behrman - AP

Thousands of red seats showed up to honor and thank Hal McCoy for his 37 years of service to the Reds and baseball. (AP Photo/Al Behrman)

Browse more photos »

Joe Nuxhall Memorial Honorary Star of the Game

Jeff Fulchino. He threw the wild pitch that allowed Joey Votto to score the winning run. Votto, Brandon Phillips, Drew Stubbs, and Wladimir Balentien all had big games as well.

Key Plays

The Astros made some plays and there was some exciting defense, but they lost so screw them. They're not getting recapped anymore.
Jonny Gomes hit a home run in the second inning to give the Reds the lead.
Drew Stubbs hit a home run in the third, then Joey Votto walked, went to third on Phillips's single, and scored on Scott Rolen's sacrifice fly. Two runs! Tie game!
Wladimir Balentien hit a double to lead off the fourth inning. He moved to third on Craig Tatum's sacrifice fly, and scored when Justin Lehr bunted to the pitcher, and Yorman Bazardo threw it away. Reds lead, 4-3!
Balentien scored again in the sixth inning. He singled, and Tatum bunted him to second. After Jay Bruce struck out, Drew Stubbs singled to bring in Balentien. Tie game!
Joey Votto and Brandon Phillips singled to begin the seventh inning, putting runners on the corners. Scott Rolen came up and struck out, but not before Jeff Fulchino threw a wild pitch and Votto crossed the plate with the winning run.

via FanGraphs

Other Notes

The Reds are only three games out of fourth place. Here we come!
Jeff Keppinger hit two home runs - in the same game! It was the first time he'd ever done that.
This was the second series against the Astros that the Reds have swept in Cincinnati this season. The Reds have won seven in a row against the 'Stros.
The Astros hit five home runs off of Justin Lehr, which tied a club record. The last Reds pitcher to give up five homers was Brandon Claussen on July 18, 2005.
Jonny Gomes became the third Red to reach the 20 homer mark. He's only one behind Joey Votto for the club lead.
Juan Francisco drew a walk. ZOMG! His ML walk rate of 50% is blowing away his minor league numbers.
Coco Cordero has pitched - and gotten a save in - the last three days and four of the last five. Let's hope for a blowout tomorrow.

Final - 9.16.2009	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H	E
Houston Astros	0	0	3	0	2	0	0	0	0	5	12	1
Cincinnati Reds	0	1	2	1	0	1	1	0	X	6	11	0
WP: Jared Burton (1 - 0) SV: Francisco Cordero (37) LP: Wesley Wright (3 - 3)

Complete Coverage >

Hunter Pence, Relievers lead Astros to Four Game Sweep of Phillies

HighLeveragePerformer — Mon, 07 Sep 2009 21:41:14 -0000

More photos » by David J. Phillip - AP

3 months ago: Houston Astros' Hunter Pence (9) swings to hit a two-run home run as Philadelphia Phillies catcher Carlos Ruiz, left, reaches for the pitch during the second inning of a baseball game Monday, Sept. 7, 2009 in Houston. Pence and Miguel Tejada scored on the homer. (AP Photo/David J. Phillip)

Browse more photos »

As far as improbable occurrences are concerned, this one has to take the cake. All week the discussion has been about Cecil Cooper's impending departure from the realms of the employed, but this Labor Day Weekend all the talk centered around the game itself. The Astros have made a habit the past month or so of falling 5-6 games under .500, then winning enough games in succession to get close enough to sniff the break even point.

Hunter Pence hit a two run home run in the second to put the Astros ahead 2-1, and then after allowing a bloop double to Jimmy Rollins in the top half of the seventh, Pence made amends by hitting a double of his own which scored Miguel Tejada and tied the game up at 3 apiece. Team MVP Mike Bourn pushed Pence across the plate later in the inning via a bases loaded walk.

Five relief pitcher combined to throw 3.1 scoreless innings to finish the game out. Wesley Wright was credited with win number three on the season, and the incomparable Jose Valverde earned his 22nd save in 26 opportunities.

Philadelphia left 15 runners on base, in total, and were unable to get the "big hit". Today, Pedro Feliz and Matt Stairs both struck out with runners on first and second in the eighth inning, in what would turn out to be the last chance for the Phils to push across the tying run. Jeff Fulchino saw to it that they could not, and the NL East leaders leave town with nary a win to their credit.

It's almost strange feeling at this point, the Astros playing well against a good team. With youngsters coming up for the remainder of the season, Jason Castro representing the stars and stripes in Europe, and Cecil Cooper's employment status up in the air, times are certainly intriguing at the ol' ballpark these days.

Monday Morning Astros, etc Round Up

HighLeveragePerformer — Mon, 24 Aug 2009 11:00:19 -0000

More photos » by Bob Levey - AP

I don't think we've ever included a photo of Kaz Matsui in a post.

Browse more photos »

Alyson Footer puts on her thinking cap, and ponders the 2010 Astros. Her headlining thoughts: bring back Brian Moehler and sign Randy Wolf. Bearing arbitration, salary increases and other factors in mind, she suggests Tejada could re-sign for $5 million to play thirdbase, with Tommy Manzella and Jason Castro starting at SS and C. Geoff Blum, Jeff Keppinger, Kaz Matsui and Lance Berkman, and assumedly a backup catcher round out her infield.

In the bullpen, a young group: Sam Gervacio, Yorman Bazardo, Wes Wright, Alberto Arias and Jeff Fulchino should make up much the reliever corps. As for closer, Footer doesn't think the Astros can afford Jose Valverde, as he will most likely be after a multi year contract. A trade is always an option, she notes.

I'll ask the same thing Footer does, how does this group strike you? Catchers: Jason Castro and JR Towles, Infielders: Lance Berkman, Kaz Matsui, Tommy Manzella, Geoff Blum, Jeff Keppinger, and Miguel Tejada, Outfielders: Carlos Lee, Hunter Pence, Michael Bourn, Reserve OF, Starting Rotation: Roy Oswalt, Wandy Rodriguez, Randy Wolf, Bud Norris, Brian Moehler, Bullpen: Wes Wright, Jeff Fulchino, Alberto Arias, Sam Gervacio, Yorman Bazardo, Closer.

That's 23 players so far, 12 position players and 11 pitchers...There should be another arm added, hopefully Felipe Paulino. After that, an extra outfielder or a bullpen arm to finish off the roster, perhaps?

Now batting, for your Corpus Christi Hooks....Justin....Timberlake. I'm serious, folks. For those who haven't heard, Timberlake and Jeff Bridges are starring in a movie called, Open Road, in which Timberlake is a minor leaguer for our Corpus Christi Hooks.

This all begs the question...can we, like, keep JT in the minors? He's a little old, but with that left handed stroke and athleticism, I don't doubt he could replace Mitch Einertson with ease.

For the first time since 1927, a game ended with an unassisted triple play on Sunday. The man who completed the triple play? None other than Eric Bruntlett. After the bottom of the ninth inning began with two Phillie errors, one of which was committed by Bruntlett, karma swung back in favor of Eric the Bearded and his crew.

Flip flopping away, RJ admits that the criticism levied against him so much on here is in fact true. He did share one interesting tid bit though, in regard to Cecil Cooper's hanging on by a thread as manager:

Listening to players privately complain about his every move has gotten old. Why did the Astros allow it to go on?

Did they notice the ``Really?'' t-shirts some players are wearing. ``Really?'' as in, ``Really? Did that just happen? Really?''

Clever t-shirts, gentlemen. I'd like to think that Chris Sampson printed off 25 of those bad boys and handed them out to his teammates.

Koby Clemens has been on some people's radars, after pummeling baseballs in A Lancaster. It's tough projecting players who have had only 17 ABs in AA, but as a catcher, you have to think that Clemens' future is murky with the Astros. With Jason Castro hopefully taking the big league reigns at some point next season, JR Towles, Lou Santangelo and Koby Clemens are more likely to be insurance/reserves. Not a bad gig if you can get it, and there's always trades/position changes if it comes to that.

Matt Holliday has been hitting gangbusters for the Cardinals since being traded to St. Louis, but the centerpiece of the deal that went to Oakland, Brett Wallace, isn't doing too shabby either. The Cards will have a tough time resigning Holliday, and it's a tough call determining whether or not Holliday has in fact put STL over the top. The fact that Wallace may eventually be moved to 1B makes this trade all the more palatable for the Cardinals.

A tip of the cap to EveryHoustonTeamRox, as he broke the news on TCB that the Rockies have signed Russ Ortiz to a minor league deal. It's a low risk, probably low reward move that ensures Colorado can have an extra veteran arm on their postseason roster, should they qualify. Jason Giambi has also been signed by the Rockies, after he was released by Oakland.