SB Nation - Wes Hodges

Fire Everyone! - The Farm System

APV — Thu, 24 Sep 2009 21:28:49 -0000

More photos » by Ross D. Franklin - AP

Travis Hafner, soliciting coaching advice from outside the organization

This is the eighth installment in a 12-part series.

Part of the Tribe's failure this year can be blamed on the reality that when players were failing to perform in April and May (and there were many), no one was there in Akron or Columbus to step up and provide at least temporary relief. When Fausto Carmona was busy allowing 4+ runs in 10 of his first 12 starts, who was there to step up? Sure, David Huff was there to step in and promptly allow 13 earned runs in his first 6 innings of pro ball, but who was there behind him? And behind that guy? And when the bullpen was busy reading up on seppuku rather than "how to record a major league out" for the first two months, was there really no one better than Matt Herges and Greg Aquino available to fill the holes? Mark Shapiro has said nothing more frequently than the need for depth - the need to prepare for individual failures (which are inevitable) and insure against collective failures. So where was the depth when it was needed to keep the season alive?

One explanation is that it was a failure to acquire the right talent. This is a well hashed argument, and one which might have some validity. There is another possibility, however, that perhaps it is not that we have failed to acquire the right talent, but instead failed to develop the talent we have properly. Perhaps our developmental system, again one of Shapiro's trademarks on the organization has failed. Shapiro has been lauded for installing a system based on combining traditional scouting data with rigorous quantitative assessment and emphasizing consistency throughout the system. Players are supposed to enter into the organization and hear the same things at every level. Maybe some have been hearing the wrong things.

Trying to assess how good a developmental staff the Indians have is probably going to be a failed effort on my part. To really do it right, you would have to compare how the Indians fare relative to other organizations. The best hitters get out 60% of the time. Their greatness is only visible when assessed against everyone else, who get out 69% of the time. The success rate for prospects is much lower than either of the numbers. I don't have time for a thorough comparative analysis, sadly. But we can look internally at what the Tribe has done.

I consider the goal of the developmental staff to accomplish two things:

A good system should help players achieve the potential they were viewed to have when they were drafted/signed (with obvious injury caveats).
A great system should strive to raise the ceiling of their players, and strive to turn them into better players than other teams thought they could be.

How do they do this - I have no idea. But I would like to think they identify weaknesses in a player's game and seek to improve on them. Have the Indians done that? Here are some significant minor leaguers, either assessed by performance, draft or reputation, and how they've progressed (or regressed) while in the Indians system.

2003

Michael Aubrey - Injuries make his development impossible to assess

Brad Snyder - I think Snyder's failures are viewed as a contact problem. I think it is more that he didn't hit for enough power given his high strikeout rate. Here are his K/BB rates from A+, to AA, and two years in Buffalo - 2.5, 2.5, 3, +4...that's not good.

Adam Miller - see Michael Aubrey

Javi Herrera - college defensive catcher (and 3rd round pick), never learned to hit at AA

Ryan Garko - Seems like a success story. He's never developed a lot of power, but aside from his senior year at Stanford he never had a lot of power.

Juan Valdes - Injuries (too much coffee, no doubt)

Kevin Kouzmanoff - Kouz is a developmental success for Cleveland, a guy who raised his ceiling to the point of being trade worthy for future superstar Josh Barfield

Aaron Laffey - Big developmental success. While he's always gotten groundballs in bunches, his improving K-numbers throughout his minor league career attest to his improved secondary stuff, particularly his slider.

2004

Jeremy Sowers - I think it is hard to argue Sowers as a developmental failure. He has consistently dominated the minors. The translation to the big league level is not something I feel justified in blaming the minor league staff entirely for. An argument could be made that more of an effort should have been extended to improve his fastball velocity, but that is tough without incurring all sorts of other mechanical issues.

Justin Hoyman - never got started

Scott Lewis - I think a success story from a developmental perspective. Always did well, but was always described as likely having trouble at the next level. He kept doing well at the next level, up until his injury derailment in the majors.

Chuck Lofgren - Hard to know exactly what has happened or who is to blame for Lofgren, but losing the ability to throw strikes is something I'm happy to assign partial blame to the staff.

Mike Butia - Bad pick

Chris Gimenez - The Tribe turned this 19th round pick into a guy who can play multiple positions including catcher. He's not great, but that's not a bad job for a guy not many people probably thought much of.

Carlton Smith - Another guy who the Indians are trying to turn into something useful. They've managed to take his naturally sinking stuff and turn him into an extreme groundballer out of the pen in Akron this year. I say small victory.

Wyatt Toregas - selected in the 24th round, Wyatt's performance has been up and down, but at various points they've managed to get his plate discipline and/or power up to levels that made his appearance on the big league team this year not surprising. Success.

Tony Sipp - he was a late round flyer who I think we're all glad signed. A success obviously, but it is a little troubling that Sipp's control never showed any improvement.

2005

Trevor Crowe - After looking like he was nothing in 2007 in Akron, he did rebound more towards a reasonably projection given his college performance. Not worth a first round pick, but not the developmental staff's fault.

John Drennen - Haven't been able to put together a solid approach at the plate for Drennen. It's either mediocre power with huge K-rates, or zero power with mediocre plate discipline.

Stephen Head - they really should have worked on his mustache more, or tried to put together a coherent set of skills

Nick Weglarz - projectable big guy from Ontario with limited baseball experience turned into a top prospect...Yes!

Jensen Lewis - Again, from the minor league side of things, this looks like a success

Jordan Brown - Following his 2007 season in Akron, it looked like all he needed to do was add a little power and he'd be a good guy at the plate. Instead he fell apart, losing power, discipline and contact skills. He has rebounded a lot this year, but hasn't recovered his discipline at the plate and given his defensive liabilities, isn't viewed as part of the future. In terms of development, I think Brown is probably a draw.

Kevin Dixon, Joe Ness, James Deters - These three consecutive picks from 2005 all reached Akron and promptly had their careers end, I think we can assign a little failure.

Ryan Edell - Edell, the next pick in that draft, actually made it past Akron this year. Edell is not anything special, but he has followed an advance and struggle, then come back and improve trajectory to the point where he is a depth rotation option for next season. I say success from the development perspective.

Roman Pena - Toolsy, but failed to learn how to not strike out

Neil Wagner - Once viewed as a relief prospect sleeper, Wagner's control has gotten worse as he has moved through the system

2006

David Huff - similar story to Jeremy Sowers. He really looked like he was ready in 2008, but in 2009 his stuff has been lacking. I have a hard time saying this is a failure of the minor league development staff, though.

Steven Wright - he's not a guy we talk much about, but he has slowly and steadily progressed through the system and will likely be a major part of the Columbus bullpen next year. Not a glowing victory, but not a developmental failure.

Josh Rodriguez - Rodriguez has dealt with some injuries, but this seems like a failure. He was highly thought of and got off to a nice pro start in 2007.

Wes Hodges - Again injuries have played a role, but Hodges' power and discipline have deteriorated at each level to the point where now he is a deserved after thought.

Matt McBride - Here I largely question the developmental choices the organization has made. McBride was at catcher, but got moved to corner outfield. He had enough of a projectable bat to be a major league catcher, but it would have and will take a minor miracle to make him a serviceable outfielder. I say development fail.

Adam Davis - He got worse each of his final two seasons at Florida, so I don't blame Cleveland for him not being any good, just for drafting him.

Ryan Morris - A big high-school lefty who the Indians have been unable to teach how to throw strikes

Jared Goedert - Apart from a now legendary 46 game stretch in Lake County, he is 9th round organizational fodder

Paolo Espino - Espino has been moved back and forth from rotation to bullpen, but his improved control this season was a positive step forward for him. I say one for the plus column.

Josh Tomlin - a 19th round pick, Tomlin has been steady in his performance across levels, last season as a stalwart in Akron's pitching staff, to the point of being an interesting guy. Development win.

Vinnie Pestano - Enough marginal improvement in his BB-rate to call this a minor victory.

Chris Nash - Big and raw high school firstbaseman, the Indians have never been able to translate his strength into power or any kind of plate performance. Fail.

Ryan Miller - late round flier who showed signs of life for Lake County in 2008, totally blew up in 2009.

Others

Jon Meloan - not drafted, but clearly a developmental failure. Were never able to right his once promising ship.

Asdrubal Cabrera - huge victory. Cabrera was a hugely underrated guy when we acquired him, but he has been able to translate that potential into actual performance.

Fausto Carmona - huge victory....turned huge failure? But this also involves the major league staff.

Frank Herrmann - Transition to bullpen was successful this season and might prove to be a very smart developmental move. That said, he didn't actually improve any of his numbers in the process.

Hector Rondon - Definitely looks like a victory in progress, has been getting better as he has advanced (at least until the final month of this season).

Rafael Perez - Another victory in terms of his minor league performance. Was a borderline starter turned into a momentarily great reliever.

Jeanmar Gomez - Another seeming victory in progress. His stuff has become more effective as he has moved through the system.

Josh Judy - 34th round 2007 pick, his numbers have also shown steady progress. Could warrant a bullpen look in 2010.

Carlos Rivero - was looking good, but had a definite set back this season in his AA debut

Summary

There are lots of guys I have no doubt missed, and I have intentionally left most of the guys acquired from 2007-present out, because for most of them development is still a work in progress. Generally, I think the Indians developmental system has been adequate, if not extraordinary. We have had pitching successes (Aaron Laffey) and failures (Jon Meloan), hitting successes (Asdrubal Cabrera) and failures (Brad Snyder), college successes (Ryan Garko) and college failures (Wes Hodges), high school successes (Nick Weglarz) and high school failures (Chuck Lofgren). Again, a real study would try to assess this quantitatively and comaratively, but I don't have time for that.

I will say the Indians success with pitchers have seemingly been with developing downward movement on their fastball and/or the development of a slider in particular as an effective secondary pitch. There aren't a ton of changeup success stories in the system, or guys who have developed great power fastballs.

At the plate, it is my sense that certain players who have struggled have gone back and forth between trying to achieve their power potential, while also maintaining a reasonable plate approach. Beau Mills seems to be a case of this in progress, where last season he was showing some signs of actually improving in both areas (following a half-season debut with good power and bad discipline), only to come crashing down in many ways this season. I always find it disappointing when guys who showed plus defensive skills, like Brad Snyder, could not ever quite work it out at the plate enough to get a shot at the major league level. Fire everyone! - mabe. But I'd probably rather see an easing of the constraints on the system. Not an abandonment of the over-arching organizational philosophy on player development, but an openness to the reality that Cleveland is not the greatest organization on the planet and does not have all of the answers.

Just about any individual performance success story or failure can be viewed either as a result of the player's contribution or that of the coaches - so it is impossible to really get at the latter. Only systematic problems give reasonable evidence of organizational failings in this regard. By and large I don't think the Indians system has those. I question sometimes whether the one size fits all approach to development and advancement works for everyone, but some of the player development decisions made this year (Abner Abreu, Lonnie Chisenhall, Zach Putnam) suggest a more flexible approach on behalf of the front office. The bottom line is that I think the Indians do a good job of getting players to perform to the level that is expected of them. There are not that many examples of guys turning into something more than was ever thought possible, but I would guess these are rare in every organization. There are also not a lot of total failures which don't have some major injury component to them. Fire everyone! - maybe. But I'd probably rather just see more humility in the current organizational philosophy towards development. The Indians are not the greatest organization on the planet and do not know the answers to every (or these days any) question. Allowing a little flexibility and opening the channels of communication regarding development up to a few more smart voices might not be a bad idea.

TotalZone on Third Base Prospects

erik — Fri, 03 Apr 2009 12:14:40 -0000

More photos » by Richard Drew - AP

The Cardinals will go with David Freese and his defense while they wait for Troy Glaus' shoulder to mend.

Browse more photos »

Thanks to the efforts of Sean Smith and Jeff Sackmann, we now have TotalZone stats for minor leaguers, which can be found at players' pages at Minor League Splits. Sackmann collects the minor league data. TotalZone is a creation of Smith's and has been used to measure major leaguers defense for quite a while now. You can read up on how reliable these stats are and how they translate here.

So far we have looked at shortstops, center fielders and second baseman. Charted below are the 2008 stats for the consensus top prospects at the hot corner, or at least those who played enough games at the position to qualify.

	Org.	Age	Level	Outs	Chances	Runs	Runs/150
Mike Moustakas	KC	19	A	111	154	11	26
Mat Gamel	MIL	22	AA	212	332	-2	-2
Josh Vitters	CHC	18	SS	95	140	7	18
Matt Dominguez	FL	18	A	125	211	-6	-10
Lonnie Chisenhall	CLE	19	SS	112	172	0	0
Danny Valencia	MIN	23	A+	95	129	9	25
Wes Hodges	CLE	23	AA	169	277	-5	-7
Neil Walker	PIT	22	AAA	178	276	-1	-1
David Freese	STL	25	AAA	176	252	8	12
Kevin Ahrens	TOR	19	A	176	269	6	8
Juan Francisco	CIN	21	A+	150	221	7	12
Taylor Green	MIL	21	A+	167	262	0	0
Billy Rowell	BAL	19	A+	193	305	1	1
Austin Gallagher	LAD	19	A+	68	125	-7	-20
John Whittleman	TEX	21	A+	161	251	4	6
Allen Craig	STL	23	AA	177	274	-2	-3

Mike Moustakas was moved from shortstop to third base mid-season and took to it like a duck to water, but it's not like he was horrible at shortstop (+2). Moustakas has a howitzer of an arm, leading some scouts believe he could possibly handle catching. With Alex Gordon in the majors, he may have to change positions yet again at some point, but he's handled himself at third quite well so far.
Mat Gamel made HUGE strides in the field, considering his past two seasons in which he had a -12 and a -23. Scouts still believe his glove is a ways off from being major league ready, but his bat will certainly make room for him somewhere.
The scouting reports rate Josh Vitters' defense from "fringy" to average, but the numbers this past year at least rate it as a plus.
On the flip side, the scouts believe Matt Dominguez's glove could play in the big leagues right now. He has even drawn comparisons to Mike Lowell. Yet TZ says hurt his team with his defense. Maybe with time Vitters and Dominguez will even out.
Scouts like Danny Valencia's glove, but question his focus and consistency. I wonder what would happen if he did focus, because he's pretty good right now. He was also a +9 in AA this past season and a +26 at third through '06-'08. The Twins toyed with the notion of using him as their regular 3B this season before signing Joe Crede to a one-year deal.
Defense is the reason the Cardinals will use David Freese to fill in for the injured Troy Glaus over Brett Wallace, their first round pick from last year. Wallace has a major league ready bat, but in just over 50 games he was a -6 defender. In 308 games, Freese is +23. Baseball America rated Freese the best defensive 3B in the Cal League in '07 (and deservedly, he was worth +12 runs), and he handled himself well in the Pacific Coast League. He is "old for his level", but he was a 5th year senior who just barely qualified for the draft. He's only played two full seasons in the minors.
Juan Francisco played well last season at third, improving on his -4 from the previous season, but he's expected to outgrow the position. Baseball America noted that some scouts are worried he'll grow into "Dmitri Young proportions" if he doesn't watch his conditioning. "El Gancho de la Carne" has a nice ring to it. (Hopefully that's good Spanish). Francisco has power in spades, but his plate discipline is pretty horrendous - 49 walks to 327 strikeouts in 1293 minor league plate appearances.
Wes Hodges probably can't stick at 3B, (-15 in 222 games) and now has the task of trying to overtake Matt LaPorta, Beau Mills and Ryan Garko on Cleveland's depth chart. (LaPorta is listed as an outfielder, but he probably will not stick there. We'll talk about corner outfielders next.)
Into 57 games of last season, the Dodgers mercifully pushed Austin Gallagher to 1B.

As with any defensive metric, the usual caveats apply. If I understand correctly, TotalZone is roughly akin to Dan Fox's SFR metric and is a big, big step up from anything else out there for minor leaguers. In my humble opinion, as long as it doesn't depart greatly from the scouting reports, it's probably +/- 5 runs of what the player actually was worth on the field. I tend to focus in on the players hitting double digits. If a guy is that good or bad, it's probably meaningful enough to take note of.

Handicapping the Field

afh4 — Fri, 27 Mar 2009 19:13:50 -0000

As Spring Training wears on, how I am amusing myself.

Click the image for a larger version.

Meet the NRIs: Position Players

Ryan — Thu, 05 Mar 2009 01:51:43 -0000

The woefully-late conclusion to a tour of the Indians' Non-Roster Invitees:

Player	Position	2009 Age	2008 Level	Organization	AB	BA	OBP	SLG	2B	HR
Damaso Espino	C	26	AAA	KC	36	.167	.286	.167	0	0
			AA	CLE	102	.275	.342	.304	3	0
Michael Aubrey	1B	27	MLB	CLE	45	.200	.280	.333	0	2
			AAA	CLE	285	.281	.328	.418	18	7
			AA	CLE	103	.282	.330	.456	10	2
Jordan Brown	1B	25	AAA	CLE	420	.281	.337	.417	30	7
Andy Cannizaro	IF	30	MLB	TB	1	.000	.000	.000	0	0
			AAA	TB	171	.240	.311	.304	8	1
			AAA	CLE	84	.321	.374	.476	4	3
Tony Graffanino	IF	37	AAA	CLE	89	.315	.384	.416	7	0
Andy Marte	3B	25	MLB	CLE	235	.221	.268	.315	11	3
Wes Hodges	3B	24	AA	CLE	504	.290	.354	.466	29	18
Jesus Merchan	SS	28	AAA	ARI	436	.339	.373	.443	23	4
Beau Mills	1B	22	A+	CLE	482	.293	.373	.506	34	21
Wilson Valdez	IF	31	Did Not Play
Stephen Head	1B/OF	25	AA	CLE	404	.290	.325	.455	24	13
Michael Brantley	LF	22	AA	MIL	420	.319	.395	.398	17	4
Matt LaPorta	LF	24	AA	MIL	302	.288	.402	.576	23	20
			AA	CLE	60	.233	.299	.350	1	2

Catchers

Because one can never have enough catchers early in spring, Damaso Espino joins the five catchers on the Indians' 40-man roster in major-league camp. He played with Akron last year after the Indians purchased him from the Kansas City organization.

Infielders

Michael Aubrey and Andy Marte were both outrighted off the 40-man roster in recent months. Both were considered top prospects at one time, but now neither figure into the Indians' current or future plans. I think Marte still has a chance of becoming an everyday major-league player, but Aubrey's chances are fading fast. For much more on Aubrey and Marte, click on their respective player links at the bottom of this post.

Jordan Brown, after two very good seasons in Kinston and Akron, stalled out last year in Buffalo, possibly due to a knee injury. Brown doesn't have the physical attributes that scouts look for, but has been, with the exception of 2008, a model of consistency at the plate. He has no chance of making the major-league club this spring, but should be the regular first baseman with the Clippers.

Tony Graffinino has an outside shot of making the team as a utility infielder. He was most recently seen in the majors with Milwaukee in 2007. He injured his knee that late that season, didn't sign with an organization until next June, when he signed a minor-league deal with Cleveland. He played with Buffalo the rest of the season, though still having problems with his knee.

Andy Cannizaro and Jesus Merchan both are fighting for a spot on the Columbus roster. Cannizaro got one at-bat with Tampa last season, and spent the rest of his season with AAA affiliates. Merchan posted good, but BA-heavy numbers with AAA Tuscon last season. If he had any speed, he'd be a prototypical NL utility infielder. Wilson Valdez is also in the mix for Columbus; he played in Korea and Japan last year.

With Mark DeRosa a free agent at the end of the season, this is a big season for Wes Hodges. He's made it to AAA in his third professional season, right on schedule for a college player, and although Jhonny Peralta seems fated to eventually move to third, the DeRosa signing delayed a final decision a year, giving Hodges another season to make an impression. His offensive numbers look fine; I think the Indians are foremost looking for defensive improvement.

Beau Mills is a prospect with big power potential combined with promising plate discipline. He'll be heading to AA Akron, which is usually a big jump for young sluggers. He was drafted as a third baseman, but only played there in 8 games last year; first base will be his position as a major-leaguer.

Outfielders

Stephen Head was drafted as a good defensive first baseman, but can now play the outfield as well. That versatility is offset by very pedestrian offensive production partly explained by a shoulder injury early last year. He should be a reserve at either Akron or Columbus.

Michael Brantley is an intriguing prospect. He's an advanced hitter for his age (he's compiled 57 more walks than strikeouts in his professional career), and should be a successful base-stealer in the majors. But he hasn't hit for any power yet, and plays positions (left field and first base) that normally carry with them power expectations. He's still just 22, so there's still time for him to develop into an everyday player or better.

Matt LaPorta was the centerpiece of the CC Sabathia trade, and although the Indians aren't expecting much from him in 2009 at the major-league level, he should be in left field or at first base for the Indians in 2010. He dominated the Southern League, a pitcher's league, in 2008, slugging 47 extra-base hits in 302 at-bats while walking 45 times.