SB Nation - Erik Bedard

Winter Meetings Primer, 2009

Jesse — Mon, 07 Dec 2009 00:15:52 -0000

More photos » by Jennifer Simonson - AP

Sure, it's a rumor-filled week that generally leads to nothing. But it's still a rumor-filled week, and to me that equals fun.

Twins Needs

Second Base
Third Base
Starting Pitcher
Bench Depth
Joe Mauer Extension

Between LEN III and Joe C., the Twins have been tied to a few names already this off-season: Mark DeRosa, Rich Harden, Adrian Beltre, Jarrod Washburn and Orlando Hudson. There has been little speculation fueled by comments from the front office, although this has been commonplace during the Bill Smith era. Now entering his third Winter Meetings and in the best position to win since taking on the role of General Manager, it will be interesting to see if the rumors lead to anything concrete this season.

Obviously the Twins are still in the market for at least one infielder after picking up J.J. Hardy a few weeks ago, and the recent (and early) signings of Chone Figgins (four years, $36 million), Placido Polanco (three years, $18 million) and Marco Scutaro (two years, $12.5 million with an option for more) seem to set the market for starting infielders. Considering the combination of age and history I feel like all three teams overpaid, on either years or dollars or both.

Last season at this time there was a lot of talk surrounding Casey Blake and Garrett Atkins, and there's been nothing quite like that this season. This front office, and I've said it before, plays things notoriously close to the vest. Sure, it might not make for interesting discussion fodder, but it serves the best interests of the team.

A vast majority of the time all of the rumors and speculation lead to absolutely nothing during the week of the Winter Meetings. The common theme is for teams to read each other and, if possible, lay a foundation for things to happen over the following weeks. But that doesn't mean we won't hear some interesting tidbits over the next few days.

Names of Interest (after the break)

Adrian Beltre - With the Phillies signing Polanco, one of the Twins main competetors for the free agent third baseman may have just taken themselves out of the market. The biggest issue surrounding Beltre is Scott Boraas and his $10 million per year asking price. Even for his glove, I'm not sure Minnesota is going to fork out that kind of money for Beltre.

Mark DeRosa - He's also been rumored to be asking for nearly $10 million per season. Yikes.

Josh Johnson - The Marlins have said that Johnson won't be traded this off-season, but it's always hard to tell what's truth and what's posturing. If his name comes up this week, or at anytime over the next couple of months, I'll be listening.

Rich Harden - Along with Ben Sheets and Erik Bedard, it will be interesting to see how much teams are willing to gamble on these guys. Will the Twins maintain their interest in Harden?

Jed Lowrie - With the Red Sox the proud owners of a Scutaro, will he be on the block?

Carl Pavano - Will he accept arbitration?

Dan Uggla - The Marlins second baseman has been linked to about half of the teams in baseball at some point over the last couple of months, although no team has been connected more often than the Giants. His offense as a second baseman is superior, and in spite of his defense is still probably a three-win player.

In Closing

The Winter Meetings this season aren't set to be quite as interesting as they were the last couple of seasons, if only because the first thing on everyone's mind isn't really who else the front office can bring in but who can they sign to an extension. "General discussions" between the Twins and Mauer have begun, but nothing hard core so far, so stay tuned.

It's an exciting time of year. Be sure to keep checking back here for the latest rumblings and grumblings.

Poll

Make the call: what, if anything, will happen this week at the Winter Meetings for the Minnesota Twins?

Friday's Frosty Mug

KLSnow — Fri, 04 Dec 2009 14:46:08 -0000

More photos » by David J. Phillip - AP

Randy Wolf: 2010 Brewer?

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Some things to read while combining restaurants.

There's been a (likely unsubstantiated) rumor floating around that the Brewers have reached agreement on a three year deal for Randy Wolf. Again, odds are it's nothing, but it's still probably the top story on a slow news day, so here's some reaction to it:

In-Between Hops says the move would "make the Brewers starting rotation 50% better than it is right now."
Jorge Says No! thinks "this deal could turn into Jeff Suppan 2.0."

My reaction to the deal would depend on the price. If it'll take Suppan money to sign Wolf, then I'm not interested. But if the price is the rumored 3 years/$27 million, then we're getting close to the acceptable range. A third season for Wolf might be a bit risky, but the price is low enough to not be crippling.

Meanwhile, the Brewers are also still rumored to have interest in Gregg Zaun. FanGraphs has targeted Zaun as one of the players they'd like you to stop by and project today.

Assuming the front office isn't preparing to announce a Randy Wolf deal, they're most likely getting ready for next week's Winter Meetings. Adam McCalvy has a preview, including the Brewer needs, and once again raises the possibility that Jason Kendall could be back next season. McCovey Chronicles ranked Kendall seventh in their Future Free Agent Mistake Power Rankings.

Could Manny Parra be more effective out of the bullpen? I'm not sure I'm sold on it, but Keith Law said the Brewers should think about it in yesterday's chat, as noted over at View From Bernie's Chalet. Law also isn't too high on either Mat Gamel or Casey McGehee as a long-term solution at third base.

I know at least one BCB'er is already in line to get in, but if you were still trying to decide on checking out the Clubhouse Sale at Miller Park this weekend, John and Cait have a preview of the items that will be featured. After seeing it, I wish I had time to go.

If you're looking to do some Christmas shopping but you're more of the minor league type, the Brevard County Manatees also have some holiday specials going.

Alcides Escobar and Hernan Iribarren will be back in the states this weekend, as the Venezuelan Winter League plays a two game series in Miami to showcase Venezuelan baseball in the US. Escobar and Iribarren's Lara team will take on a Zulia team which used to feature Brendan Katin. I'm assuming Katin has left the team, as he hasn't appeared in a game in over a month.

Elsewhere in the winter leagues, Mat Gamel went 0-for-2 with a strikeout in his VWL debut for Caracas last night. You can read about that and more in today's Winter League Update.

Around baseball:

Astros: Signed pitcher Ryan Sadowski to a minor league deal.
A's: Acquired Aaron Miles and Jake Fox from the Cubs for reliever Jeff Gray and two minor leaguers.
Braves: Signed Takashi Saito to a one year deal.
D-Backs: Removed reliever Kyler Newby and catcher Luke Carlin from their 40-man roster. (h/t AZ Snakepit)
Mets: Signed Henry Blanco to a one year, $1.5 million deal.
Phillies: Signed Placido Polanco to a three year deal worth $18 million.
Rays: Released pitcher Ramon Ramirez.
Red Sox: Signed Marco Scutaro to a two year deal with a mutual option for 2012.

If some of the Brewers' current pitching targets don't turn out, might they be interested in Gil Meche? MLB Trade Rumors says the Royals are expecting to receive offers for him once the free agent market starts to heat up. Meche is owed $24 million over the next two seasons, but has posted a sub-4.00 ERA in two of the last three years.

All three of these guys will probably come up in connection to the Brewers again at some point: Lookout Landing has a look at the upsides of Rich Harden, Erik Bedard and Ben Sheets, and explains why Harden is in a better position than Bedard for 2010.

Happy birthday today to:

Carlos Gomez, who turns 24.
Harvey Kuenn, who would have turned 79.

Oh, and no matter how disappointed you are in the offseason so far, at least we can all be glad Doug Melvin isn't responsible for these robocalls.

Drink up.

Harden, Bedard, And Explaining Myself

Jeff — Fri, 04 Dec 2009 02:13:42 -0000

Over the past few weeks, I've made no secret of how much I'd like to see the Mariners sign Rich Harden. Given our roster situation and the fact that we're not trying to win now at all costs, I think Harden's risk/reward is an excellent fit, as he has the potential to deliver big-time results out of the rotation without requiring the sort of commitment that would set us back if he flopped. High risk/high reward/low commitment seems like a good way for this team to go. It's with that in mind that a number of people have asked why I've paid so little attention to another guy out there in a similar vein - one Erik Bedard.

Bedard definitely fits the mold. When he's healthy, he's great. When he's not healthy, he's good. He's been a lot more good than great. In the kingdom of pitchers with big talent and bigger question marks, Bedard, Harden, and Ben Sheets are the three branches of government, as any acknowledgment of their ability is always followed with a "Yeah, but-". With all three of them available on the market, then, where's the sense in my limiting my focus to just one of them?

My neglect of Sheets has probably been unfair. I don't think he'd really have that much interest in coming here, certainly not as much as Harden, but he's absolutely worth a look. However, this post is more about explaining my relative lack of attention paid to Bedard. And for that I have two main reasons.

The first one is the obvious one - Bedard isn't in good shape. Not that any of these guys are ever really healthy the way normal people are healthy, but Bedard is rehabbing from surgery on his labrum, and despite advances in medical technology, that's still about as bad as it gets, short of literally having your arm fall off. The track record of people coming back from this sort of procedure is really hit-or-miss, and even if Bedard is able to return at some approximation of his previous self, he's already going to miss the first month of the season, and the likelihood is that he won't be ready to go and feeling 90-100% until June or July. You might recall that Bedard isn't exactly the world's fastest healer.

That's an issue. Bedard's health is a bigger question than Harden's, and even if he's able to come back feeling good, he already has a substantial head start on missed time. Harden might miss a month or two of action. Bedard's a guarantee. That guaranteed missed time reduces the potential reward, and as such reduces my level of interest.

The second reason is just that, from everyone I've talked to, I've never gotten the impression that Bedard would want to come back. He didn't have the greatest experience in Seattle, he - like anyone - would probably like a fresh start somewhere else, and he's always been a guy who prefers to pitch back east. And though big money can change anyone's mind and even lure someone like Alex Rodriguez to somewhere like Texas, the less money there is, the more weight a player will put on other factors like team quality, geographical location, and overall feeling. Bedard can see that this is a team on the rise, but Seattle's a long way from what's comfortable, and he wasn't exactly shown a whole lot of love the last two years. So when it comes down to picking one from a number of small contracts with innings-based incentives, I think Bedard's likely to choose the one with the greatest potential to make him happy as he looks to restore his value.

I like Erik Bedard. A lot. I liked him when we got him, I liked him after we got him, and I still like him now. I would be happy to see him come back in 2010 on a reasonable deal, simply because he's a really good pitcher who would help push this team's upside potential into playoff territory. That said, his odds of making a big impact next year are lower than Harden's, and I don't think he'd really want to come back in the first place. So that's why I haven't been paying him a lot of attention. I'd rather focus on something more likely with more upside.

Bedard's a neat option, but right now, he has to be viewed as a backup. Harden's just the better bet.

The Adrian Beltre Arbitration Situation

Jeff — Tue, 01 Dec 2009 21:52:36 -0000

Personally, I don't see this as being too tough of a call.

For one thing (and the main reason), I think the odds are that, if you offer Beltre arbitration, he's going to decline it. He knows there's a market for him out there, a market that includes Boston and Philadelphia, two big-budget teams with both a need and an understanding of how good he is. With both demand and competition for his services, Beltre's almost certainly going to get a few multi-year offers at a good salary, and some are going to come from better teams in better parks. It wouldn't make sense for him to take a one-year arby deal. It'd be one thing if we were, I dunno, Texas. But Beltre hit .254/.307/.411 in Safeco and .277/.326/.472 on the road during his time as a Mariner. The only reason someone in his situation would accept arby is if he thought he could re-establish some value, and Seattle's just about the worst possible place for Beltre to do that.

The other possibility is that Beltre accepts arbitration. The probability is low, but it's not impossible, so it has to be considered. If Beltre accepts, the team has two choices:

(1) Trade him

(2) Keep him

If Beltre accepts, then he's probably looking at a 2010 salary somewhere around $10-12m. The Mariners could then trade him to someone looking for a 3B, maybe with a little cash, in exchange for some sort of non-elite prospect, negating the whole thing. They don't come out with a draft pick, and they might have to spend a bit, but they do get something back. The only real trouble here is that the M's would have reduced flexibility until Beltre is out the door.

The Mariners could also elect to keep him at that $10-12m and fill a known roster hole. This is the worst possible outcome of the whole thing, but in this case the worst possible outcome nets us a good player at a reasonable cost with no long-term commitment. Beltre projects as at least a 3-win player, and that's a 3-win player with upside, as he's been a 4+ win player four times in eight years since 2002. The problem here is that his $10-12m salary would cut a huge chunk out of our offseason budget, but it would by no means leave us in an unmanageable situation. The FO would still have room to work, and they could always clear a couple million by moving Jose Lopez. So while bringing back Beltre would make things a little more difficult, it would answer a burning question, and it would still leave Zduriencik enough room to upgrade elsewhere.

Offering arbitration to Adrian Beltre has a downside. That's why there's a conversation. It isn't as obvious as offering arbitration to, say, Mike Cameron in 2003. But from where I sit, the downside is neither particularly detrimental nor particularly probable. Erik Bedard? Bad idea. Adrian Beltre? Go for it. He'll probably decline, and even if he doesn't, the consequence just isn't that bad.

Free Agent Starting Pitching: BCB Weighs In

roguejim — Sat, 28 Nov 2009 14:51:33 -0000

More photos » by Pat Sullivan - AP

I am Carl Pavano --- no one gave up more earned runs last year in all of baseball last year than I. But I command you to look only at my peripherals! Look at them! Yesss...stare longingly at my sweet sweet peripherals. Love them! (AP Photo/Pat Sullivan)

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It just occurred to me that the Winter Meetings are coming up fast, and we haven't told Doug Melvin which two free agent pitchers we wanted. (Frankly, that's probably how the Hardy/Gomez trade went down: we didn't specifically tell DM for whom Hardy should be traded, and he went rogue and made the trade himself.) Assuming we can't (and shouldn't!) get into a bidding war on the services of John Lackey, which two of the free agent pitchers listed below should we try to sign, and why? Be sure to consider salary when choosing.

(Note 1: I'm not including the likes of Mulder and Halama, as you can't sign them and assume they'll win a spot.)

(Note 2: I haven't seen much written about Kelvim Escobar, who hasn't had an ERA north of 4 since 2003. The Red Sox are asking about him, the Brewers should too.)

(Note 3: Shawn Hill is cheap, a sinkerballer, often injured, and one of the few ex-Expos out there not yet 30. A perfect flier for the Brewers.)

Here's the list:

Aroldis Chapman, LHP who throws 100 MPH, albeit erratically
Randy Wolf
Rich Harden
Erik Bedard
John Smoltz
Andy Pettitte
Joel Pineiro
Jarrod Washburn
Ben Sheets
Brad Penny
Justin Duchscherer
Pedro Martinez. Vote for Pedro!
Doug Davis
Jason Marquis
Jon Garland
Vicente Padilla
Carl Pavano
Braden Looper
Randy Johnson
Mike Hampton
Hisanori Takahashi
Paul Byrd
Ugh...I'll opt for choosing only one free agent and trading Gamel for the other

Friday's Frosty Mug

KLSnow — Fri, 27 Nov 2009 14:27:44 -0000

More photos » by Lenny Ignelzi - AP

Kevin Correia: 2010 Brewer?

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Some things to read while having Twilight explained to you.

And I'm back. I hope everyone had a great holiday. If you weren't around the web yesterday (and the site stats would suggest you weren't), here's some of the Thanksgiving stuff you missed from around the web:

Wisconsin Sports Tap has a list of Wisconsin sports people and things they're thankful for, including Ryan Braun, Prince Fielder, Miller Park and Doug Melvin.
The Ghost of Moonlight Graham says Brewer fans should be thankful for Mark Attanasio, and he's absolutely right. Mark A. probably deserves more credit than anyone for creating a winning culture in Milwaukee.
Meanwhile, I had three posts here, with two things I'm thankful for and a Thursday Thinker.

And, once again, thanks to all of you for reading and continuing to check back here as well. Traffic is up over 50% from last November, when the Brewers were coming off a playoff appearance. Actually, we've also seen more visitors in November than we did in all of September, when the Crew was still playing most days. Thanks for helping make this one of the best places on the web to read about and discuss the Brewers.

It's a slow day for Brewer news coming off the holiday, but there are a couple of things I missed this week. First of all, Adam McCalvy had a conversation with John Halama about his attempted return to the major leagues, which Roguejim also noted in this FanPost. Halama is spending the offseason pitching for Licey in the Dominican Winter League, so hopefully we'll be able to monitor his progress in future Winter League Updates.

Earlier in the week, McCalvy also had notes on two pitchers the Brewers might pursue: Justin Duchscherer and Kevin Correia. The Grand National Championships has weighed in in favor of those moves, and says they would go a long way towards restoring his trust in Doug Melvin.

Apparently I'm going to mention McCalvy in every paragraph today: He also has a great look at Brewer Charities under the leadership of new executive director Cecilia Gore.

Speaking of Brewer charities, a while back I mentioned the Brewer Wives' 2010 Pet Calendar, but we weren't sure if it would be available online. It is, as it turns out, so you can help support the Wisconsin Humane Society, even if you can't make it to Milwaukee.

Around baseball:

Blue Jays: Signed shortstops Alex Gonzalez and John Mcdonald to deals for 2010.
Mariners: Infielder Josh Wilson has refused an outright assignment to the minor leagues and is now a free agent.
Red Sox: Acquired infielder Tug Hulett from the Royals for a PTBNL or cash.

His name doesn't come up as often as the likes of Doug Davis or Jarrod Washburn, but Erik Bedard is another pitcher the Brewers might be pursuing this offseason. If they do decide to make an offer, though, they might be competing with the Orioles for his service. Baseball Musings has a look at what could be a great move for the Orioles: trading two years of Bedard for five players, then getting him back before they were ready to contend anyway.

If you're ready to start filling out a wish list for the Rule 5 Draft at the Winter Meetings, BuccoFans.com has scouting reports of available players from 23 teams. (h/t Crawfish Boxes)

I couldn't find a Brewer birthday today (it's a surprisingly slow day for baseball birthdays overall), so instead I'll wish an early happy birthday to Carlos Villanueva, who turns 26 tomorrow.

Oh, and I do my best to stay as baseball-relevant as possible here, but one fact remains: If you serve mac and cheese at Thanksgiving, and you post a picture, you make the Mug.

Drink up.

Orioles interested in Erik Bedard

Eli Greenspan — Sun, 22 Nov 2009 20:26:46 -0000

More photos » by Ted S. Warren - AP

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The Baltimore Sun is reporting that if Erik Bedard is healthy, the Orioles would be interested in bringing him back to Baltimore.

Bedard is expected to be out till April recovering from surgery, but put up pretty good numbers in 16 starts for the Mariners last season.

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Erik Bedard	5-3	15	15	0	0	0	0	83.0	65	29	26	8	34	90	2.82	1.19

Bedard is probably looking at a one year deal, meaning he will have several options, as long as there are no setbacks.

The Mets, Phillies, and Cubs have all had past interest in Bedard, but if the Orioles were able to land him, he would create some buzz in Baltimore with young pitchers Brian Matusz and Chris Tillman in 2010, who the Orioles acquired in the Bedard trade.

2009 BCB Free Agent Frenzy Contest

Al — Mon, 16 Nov 2009 14:00:24 -0000

More photos » by Nam Y Huh - AP

Where will Mark DeRosa play baseball in 2010?

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As I have done here each of the last four years, I'm going to run a contest, beginning today, matching the MLB.com Free Agent Frenzy contest.

The rules are pretty simple. You'll find, after the jump, the 15 free agents that MLB.com lists in its contest. Choose the team you think the free agent is going to sign with, and your "confidence" level expressed in a point value. In other words, if you are absolutely, positively certain that Mark DeRosa is going to return to the Cubs (NOTE! Joke! I'm not suggesting this, just using it as an example), you'd assign that pick 15 points. If you'd love to see Aroldis Chapman in a Cubs uniform, but you think that's extremely unlikely, give that pick one point.

Leave your picks in the comments to this post. We'll have the same deadline for picks as the MLB.com contest: one week from today, 4 pm CST on Monday, November 23. A winner will be chosen after all 15 free agents are signed. I'll need a volunteer to keep track of the entries -- and incidentally, because one of the players in last year's contest (Ben Sheets) never signed, we never did choose a winner. If someone wants to go through last year's entries and let me know who won, I'll send out the prize -- same prize this year as last, a copy of "The Cubs", a comprehensive history of the Cubs by Glenn Stout. Like the MLB.com contest, if any of these free agents remains unsigned on March 1, we'll declare the contest over and name a winner.

Here are the 15 players for this year's contest:

Jason Bay, OF Erik Bedard, SP Russell Branyan, 1B Aroldis Chapman, SP Johnny Damon, OF Mark DeRosa, 3B Jermaine Dye, OF Chone Figgins, 3B Vladimir Guerrero, DH Rich Harden, SP Matt Holliday, OF John Lackey, SP Hideki Matsui, DH Miguel Tejada, SS Jose Valverde, RP

And, I'll begin with my own picks (if, somehow, I win, the prize will go to the 2nd-place finisher).

15: Aroldis Chapman, Yankees
14: Chone Figgins, White Sox
13: Hideki Matsui, Yankees
12: John Lackey, Angels
11: Jermaine Dye, Rays
10: Jason Bay, Red Sox
9: Jose Valverde, Astros
8: Miguel Tejada, Mariners
7: Matt Holliday, Mariners
6: Rich Harden, Red Sox
5: Mark DeRosa, Cubs
4: Johnny Damon, Yankees
3: Russell Branyan, Rays
2: Vladimir Guerrero, White Sox
1: Erik Bedard, Brewers

Starting Pitchers: Damaged Goods Available

Jesse — Mon, 16 Nov 2009 01:33:46 -0000

More photos » by Tony Gutierrez - AP

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The Twins now have approximately $62 million committed to eight players who are under contract for 2010, and with J.J. Hardy's estimated arbitration salary likely somewhere around $6 million Minnesota will have approximately $17 million to shell out to their arb-eligible players. Even with a payroll which would open the year at over $80 million for the first time in frachise history the organization is still in a position to add some payroll. How much? Probably not too much. But with third base, second base and two rotation spots up for grabs there's no doubt the front office will continue on their quest to improve the team.

Minnesota has picked up a bit of a stigma as an organization that likes to rely on bargain-bin veterans to flesh out their roster, and there hasn't been a shortage of that philosophy applied to the starting rotation over the last few years. Do your ears still flush red when you think of Ramon Ortiz and Sidney Ponson? Or maybe Livan Hernandez still has you a bit baffled? Those moves, at the time, were railroaded for the quality of the player rather than the organization's decision to bring in veteran help, although there was also a strong belief that a rotation centered around Johan Santana, Francisco Liriano and Scott Baker would be just fine.

The front office agreed with us last winter, and they stayed fully in-house when constructing their rotation.

Things can change a lot in the span of a year. An area of strength going coming out of 2008 is a bit of a weakness, or at the very least not nearly as deep as we thought it would be, coming out of 2009. For a team that will always look to get the most value for their dollar, if they do choose to supplement the rotation in the free agent market, their highest reward scenarios might center around these guys. Read all about them after the break.

Rich Harden

#40 / Pitcher / Chicago Cubs

Height: 6-1

Weight: 195

Bats: L

Throws: R

Born: Nov 30, 1981

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Rich Harden	9-9	27	26	0	0	0	0	141.0	122	74	64	23	67	171	4.09	1.34

26 starts in 2009 and 25 starts in 2008--not bad. Then there were the 13 starts in '06 and '07 combined, with 19 starts made in '05. In fact, in Harden's six-plus star-crossed seasons in the majors he has had exactly one full season: 2004.

A couple of back injuries, a strained left oblique and a rap sheet full of right-arm issues, Harden's inability to keep himself on the mound isn't exactly a secret. Which is why he's even on this list. Anyone who can strike out more than a man per inning while allowing less than a hit per inning, with that kind of fastball and that kind of stuff, is a guy who's makeup has "Ace" dripping out of every pore.

This past season Harden missed 19 games in May and June due to issues with his back, before coming back and eventually being shut down at the end of September because of his pitching arm. Again.

Obviously he's a risk, but that's why I wanted to talk about these guys. The oblique strains don't bother me--it's the problems (plural) that Harden has had with his rotator cuff and his UCL. His mechanics aren't exactly smooth and without constant training to strengthen and stabalize his cuff I'm worried he could have to resort to Tommy John surgery at any time. But I'm not a doctor.

Harden is likely to garner a lot of guarded interest this off-season, and in spite of his injuries and high pitch count innings could still receive multi-year offers that would be worth double-digit millions easy. Naturally I'm not opposed to the Twins chasing him and signing him to a deal as long as it's done right. While the Twins may not be able to guarantee more money than most of the other clubs out there, offering him a low base with a number of achieveable incentives for games started and innings pitched could make a deal at least tempting.

My offer: Two years with team option for year a third. 2010: $4 million base ($500K for 12, 17, 22, 27 and 32 starts; $500 K for 100, 125, 150, 175, 200 innings pitched; $9 million possible; $1 million buyout option if less than 100 innings pitched). 2011: $6 million base, same incentives. 2012: $10 million base, same incentives, $1 million buyout.

Ben Sheets

#15 / Pitcher / Milwaukee Brewers

Height: 6-1

Weight: 225

Bats: R

Throws: R

Born: Jul 18, 1978

Sheets didn't pitch at all in 2009, and at two years older than Harden would be 32 in 2010. His rap sheet of injuries is even more varied than the Cubs ace, with long stretches of time missed for back injuries, finger injuries and, of course, right arm injuries. This last time around he's had flexor tendon surgery and, if you listen to his agent, would be ready for spring training.

He doesn't strike out quite as many guys as Harden but he still allows less than a hit per inning, has better control and is far more efficient with his pitches. Prior to this last surgery anyway. Like Harden his fastball is mid to upper-90's, and his breaking balls can break your knees. Prior to this last surgery anyway.

Sheets made 31 starts and pitched 198 innings in 2008 before missing all of '09, but from '05 to '07 he wasn't pitching full years either. From the ages of 23 to 25 though, which may be where some of these problems began for a guy who was at the time a younger pitcher, Sheets made 102 starts and threw more than 670 innings. You could argue he was over-worked, although by the time a guy hits his mid-20's he should be able to handle a full load. I tend to lean away from the over-worked arguement.

Where I see Harden landing with a more high-profile team who is willing to take a chance on him and spend a little more ching, Sheets is the option who already looks like he'll appeal to everybody. Second-tier teams (like the Twins) who still have a little wiggle room might run straight for the former Brewer to avoid getting drawn into a process with Harden.

My offer: One year with a team option for a second. 2010: $3 million base ($500 K for 11, 22 and 33 starts; $500 K for 100, 125, 150, 175 and 200 innings; $7 million possible). 2011: $5 million base, same incentives, $500K buyout.

Erik Bedard

#45 / Pitcher / Seattle Mariners

Height: 6-1

Weight: 200

Bats: L

Throws: L

Born: Mar 06, 1979

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Erik Bedard	5-3	15	15	0	0	0	0	83.0	65	29	26	8	34	90	2.82	1.19

Bedard had arthroscopic surgery on his left shoulder back in August, repairing what had been a spot of general disrepair. A torn labrum was the main issue, but the area apparently needed a good clearing. Apparently he'll be ready for the beginning of the season, but it's the second time in as many years where he made just 15 starts.

His stuff, just like the stuff of Harden and Sheets, qualifies him as an ace. He can be a dominant strikeout pitcher at times, although a little streaky even when healthy and not as efficient with his pitches as Sheets. What had been very low fly-ball numbers increased slightly in Seattle, but his plus fastball and plus breaking ball continued to be his best pitches and were seemingly unaffected.

The biggest issues with the former Mariner and Oriole enigma are his consistency and, just like the other two guys on this list, his inability to stay healthy for a whole season. His control tends to stray at times as well.

My offer: Identical to Sheets' offer.

Conclusions

Clearly there are more guys on the market than these three who could qualify as damaged goods. Mark Prior is attempting a comeback, Bartolo Colon is still floating (or sinking) around out there somewhere and even a guy like Noah Lowry has some appeal. But these three guys are the creme of the crop, because they all have the ability to be that elusive Ace pitcher.

Is there a safer option between the three? Which guy would you prefer, if any?

Poll

Which of these three pitchers do you prefer?

Rich Harden

364 votes

Ben Sheets

218 votes

Erik Bedard

161 votes

None of the above

89 votes

832 votes | Poll has closed

Points Of Contention: Rob Johnson's Defense

Jeff — Mon, 09 Nov 2009 05:31:32 -0000

Writing is easier when you don't have to think up an intro.

In terms of things we know we can measure pretty well, Rob Johnson the defender doesn't stand out, at least not in a good way.

His error rate, for whatever that's worth, is about average. His four in 754.1 innings matches up well with the league-average rate of 6.1 per 1000.

His arm is decent. He's thrown out 20 of 71 would-be base-stealers - a rate of 28.2% - against a 27.6% league average.

He kind of sucks at blocking balls. His 2009 rate of passed balls was twice the league average, and the Mariners were a bottom-third team in wild pitches. In addition, I couldn't tell you how many times I saw Johnson flat-out drop a pitch that hit him in the glove.

These factors were covered in devil_fingers' evaluation of 2009 catcher defense, and in that study, it was determined that, based on his errors, arm, and ability to receive, Johnson was about two runs below average in the field. Now it's obviously important to remember that understanding performance in a single season isn't the same as understanding true talent, but given these numbers and all of our own observations over the course of the year, I don't see any particular reason to believe that Johnson is a superior defender when it comes to things we can directly measure.

And yet he's developed this whiz-kid reputation. Why? Because, out of guys who caught at least 50 games last season, Johnson posted the lowest CERA - ERA against as a catcher - in the league, at 3.23. This versus Kenji Johjima's CERA of 4.86. Pitchers weren't giving up as many runs throwing to Johnson as they were throwing to Kenji, and this - pretty much this alone - earned Johnson both a lot of playing time and a generally favorable standing among fans.

So given that he doesn't really do anything else well, either standing at the plate or crouching behind it, one's opinion of Rob Johnson comes down to one's opinion of this statistic. Those who like Johnson do so because they feel he helps keep the opponent off the board, while those who don't do so because they don't believe CERA reveals an ability on the catcher's part to control a game. This should be examined.

The absolute first thing we have to do with CERA is consider the pitchers. Catchers don't catch an equivalent distribution of arms, and sure enough, Johnson was catching the bulk of the team's better talent. Felix Hernandez, Erik Bedard, and Jarrod Washburn made up more than half of Johnson's PA's caught, while for Johjima, they made up just 9.4%. For this reason, we should expect their CERA's to be considerably different. The guy who catches the better pitchers is almost always going to post the more flattering rate of runs scored.

However, we wouldn't expect their CERA's to be that different, so clearly there was an additional performance effect. I looked at how the bullpen did throwing to each guy a few weeks ago and, sure enough, their walk and strikeout rates were a little better with Johnson than with Kenji. The picture's a little messier with starting pitchers since the distribution was so skewed, but the take-home message here is that the difference in CERA's was more than simply the difference in pitchers caught.

So with that in mind, the question becomes one about sustainability, about whether or not this sort of thing is reflective of an actual ability and is therefore repeatable on a year-to-year basis. This being beyond my capability, thank goodness for Keith Woolner. All year long, when people have talked about the significance of CERA, others have referred back to work done on the subject a decade ago, and that work was done by Woolner at Baseball Prospectus. Here's the original study, here's a follow-up, and here's a later study done after receiving some criticism from Bill James.

Read those articles. I know they're heavy on the math and somewhat lacking in floral prose, but if you're interested in this subject, then Woolner's work is required reading.

There's too much in there for me to summarize point-by-point. But in the end, Woolner didn't find strong evidence of an effect. He didn't find weak, potentially insignificant evidence of an effect. He found no evidence of an effect. At all. Even just looking at the extremes, the absolute best and worst catchers in Year X, they regressed all the way to the mean in Year X+1. Woolner's ultimate conclusion:

For now, at least, the hypothesis most consistent with the available facts appears to be that catchers do not have a significant effect on pitcher performance.

Based on CERA and its component metrics, Rob Johnson had a much better season of game-calling than Kenji Johjima. But given that this effect has never been shown to be repeatable, we probably shouldn't label it game-calling at all, as doing so implies an ability. We don't actually know if what we're trying to measure exists, and until we do, the most responsible approach is to side with the null hypothesis. There's no proof. There's no proof that Johnson's alleged greatest strength is even the least bit significant, or real.

What's funny is that, if we're just scrounging for as much evidence as we can find, there's a lot more evidence that Kenji was bad than there is that Johnson is good. Kenji was here for four years. In three of those years, his numbers were a lot worse than those of his backup(s), and in the fourth they were about equal. For Johnson, we have one year. 80 games. With that in mind, it makes more sense to suggest that Rob Johnson looked good simply because he wasn't Kenji Johjima. There's more reason to dock the latter than there is to credit the former.

But we needn't focus on that paragraph, because Woolner's work trumps it. Nobody's ever verified that game-calling is a skill, and because of that, if one wants to believe that Johnson calls a great game, then one needs to provide a lot of evidence. Tons of it. Years and years and years' worth. Rob Johnson has started 82 games behind the plate in his Major League career. It is impossible for one to conclude anything about game-calling over a span of 82 games.

Working in Rob Johnson's favor is that pitchers like him. The reason he caught so much of Felix, Bedard, and Washburn is because that's what Felix, Bedard and Washburn wanted. If the pitchers feel like Johnson calls a good game - if the pitchers feel comfortable throwing to him - then that has value. You want your pitchers to feel comfortable when they're going to work. But then Greg Maddux felt most comfortable throwing to pretty much anyone but Javy Lopez, yet of the 12 catchers who caught Maddux for more than 25 games, opponents put up the second-lowest OPS with Lopez behind the plate. Comfort is good, but it's not proof of ability, nor is it a trump card. If you have two guys who're pretty much equal, and a pitcher would rather throw to one of them, then that's fine. But if you have two guys, and one of them is measurably better than the other, then the responsibility falls on the pitcher to feel comfortable with the guy who maximizes the team's chances of winning.

Rob Johnson is a 27 year old Major League catcher who, in his rookie season, became a favorite of some high-level pitchers and coaches. In that regard, he's off to a hell of a start. But a lot of fans have gone so far as to suggest that he's a valuable player, the reasoning being that he keeps the other team off the board. We can't say that. We can't say that and have it mean anything, because that statement has yet to be confirmed. We will know that Rob Johnson is a valuable player if and only if he improves in the areas we know we can measure. And while PITCHfx may allow for someone down the road to show that game calling is a legitimate, repeatable ability, it would really put my mind at ease if Rob Johnson would think about maybe swinging a bat.