SB Nation - Carlos Rivero

Arizona Fall League: Slugfest Highlights Tuesday's Roundup

raygu — Wed, 18 Nov 2009 14:15:09 -0000

There were 39 runs and 39 hits in the game between the Javalinas and Saguaros on Tuesday afternoon with Mariners outfield prospect Dustin Ackley leading the way with 4 hits, 3 runs scored and 3 RBI.

Ackley was the Mariners first round pick in the June 2009 first year player draft and has a bright future with the Mariners. Here is what John Sickels from SB Nation's Minor League Ball site had to say about Ackley back in April, prior to the June draft:

Dustin Ackley, 1B-OF, North Carolina
Ackley is a pure hitter with developing power. Although playing first base this year, scouts say he has enough athleticism to play the outfield, perhaps even center field. He's hitting .395/.505/.716 for North Carolina, excellent numbers in context. His strike zone judgment is very good (34 walks, 20 strikeouts in 162 at-bats). He could go just about anywhere in the first round after Strasburg, depending on his bonus demands.

And here is what he had to say about him after seeing him in the AFL last week after the jump:

ackley

I liked Ackley’s bat a lot….everything he hit was hit very hard, even foul balls were hard. I think he’ll be a strong batting average/high OBP hitter, but perhaps with just 15 homer power.

Now let's get to the boxscores:

Dustin Ackley-4-6, 3 RS, 3 RBI (.323)

Jordin Danks-3-6, 2 RS, 2 2B, 2 RBI, BB, 2 K (.322)

Jonathan Lucroy-2-6, 2 RS, 2B, 3 K (.315)

Carlos Triunfel-2-5, 2 2B, 5 RBI (.233)

Lance Zawadzki-2-5, RS, 2 RBI, BB, 2 K (.305)

Chris Heisey-2-4, 2 rs, (.297)

Yonder Alonso-0-3, 2 RS, RBI, 2 BB, 2 K (.260)

Carlos Rivero-3-6, 2 RS, 4 RBI (.337)

Dirk Hogan-1-3, 2 RS, HR, 5 RBI (.208)

Ike Davis-2-5, 3 K (.333)

Nick Evans-1-4, 2 RS, HR, 2 RBI (.188)

Mike Moustakas-1-5, 2 RS, HR, 2 RBI (.268)

Starlin Castro-2-4, RS, 2 SB (9) (.387)

Ian Kennedy-5 Inn, 5 H, 1 ER, 5 K (4.25)

Andrew Cashner-3 Inn, 4 H, 3 R, 2 ER, 3 K (4.58)

Jemile Weeks-1-3, 2 BB (.250)

Josh Bell-1-5, 2B (.321)

Grant Desme-1-4 (.330)

Brandon Crawford-2-4, RS, 3b, 2 RBI (..299)

Jose Tabata-3-5, RBI, SB (4) (.355)

Domonic Brown-0-5, 3 K 9.239)

Thomas Neal-1-4 (.275)

Brandon Allen-0-3, RS, BB, K (.155)

Willin Rosario-4-4, RS, RBI (.294)

Washington Nationals' Drew Storen Continues The DC Closer Tradition In Arizona.

Ed Chigliak — Tue, 20 Oct 2009 02:26:13 -0000

More photos » by Gerald Herbert - AP

"Flatten that brim out, Storen!!!! - The Nationals' 2nd '09 1st Round Pick was back on the mound in Arizona today. (AP Photo/Gerald Herbert)

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• It wasn't a save situation, the Phoenix Desert Dogs had a comfortable four-run lead when the Washington Nationals' 2nd '09 1st Round pick, right-handed reliever Drew Storen took the mound in the bottom of the ninth of this afternoon's AFL road game against the Peoria Saguaros, but Storen's a Chad Cordero fan and must know it's a DC baseball tradition, so of course he made it interesting to give the fans in Arizona their money's worth...

Storen started the ninth with a leadoff walk to the Houston Astros' '08 1st Round pick, Jason Castro, who was selected 10th overall out of Stanford a year before the Cardinal closer Storen went to DC with the same pick. (Good note, Mrs. S.) Next up was the 5th-ranked prospect in the Atlanta Braves' organization, Freddie Freeman, an '07 2nd Round pick, who hit over .300 in the Class-A Advance Carolina League before struggling at Double-AA ball. Storen got the Braves' future first baseman swinging through a 94 mph full-count fastball high and outside for the first out of the inning, but gave up a one-out single to Cleveland Indians' outfielder Nick Weglarz that moved Castro into scoring position. The Cincinatti Reds' '07 second-rounder Zack Cozart was no match for Storen's offspeed stuff as the Desert Dogs' stopper dropped a two-strike change in inside and high at 85 mph for a called strike three a pitch after painting the low outside edge with a 96 mph heater. That left it all up to Carlos Rivero, an Indians' infielder, ranked 10th overall in Cleveland's system according to Baseball America, who ends up flying out to right on a 2-2 slider for the third and final out.

-- Drew Storen throws 27 pitches, 16 for strikes, allows 1 hit, 1 walk and K's 2 of the 5 batters he faces.

• Final Score - Desert Dogs 6, Saguaros 2. - MLB.com's Gameday.

Desert Dogs now 5-1.

BACKPAGE:

• Danny Espinosa's Day.

• Strasburg Video - by Allen Weiner via (twitter.com/allenweiner)

(cont.)...

BACKPAGE:

• Danny Espinosa's Day.

DC shortstop prospect Danny Espinosa was the only Nationals' prospect in the starting lineup. The Nationals' 22-year-old infielder finished the day 2 for 5, though his first-inning single was erased when he got picked off first immediately after the hit. Espinosa K'd swinging in his next two AB's, before a seventh inning single, which was immediately erased by D-Dogs' 1st baseman Brandon Snyder's DP grounder. 5 games into the AFL season, Espinosa's now 5 for 19 with 4 RBI's, 5 K's and 1 SB.

• Strasburg Video - by Allen Weiner via (twitter.com/allenweiner)

As reported here last week, Stephen Strasburg threw 3.1 scoreless in his AFL debut with the Phoenix Desert Dogs, and Allen Weiner was there to see it...and record Strasburg's warm-up, Mr. Weiner (who appears to be a Philly fan) sent me a note via Twitter with a link to the his youtube video of the Nationals' '09 1st overall pick in action, and when I asked if he'd mind me sharing it with the federal baseball readers, his response was, "Share it everywhere, (please give me credit) it's for the fans!!" Have a look: (and thanks, Allen.)

Fire Everyone! - The Farm System

APV — Thu, 24 Sep 2009 21:28:49 -0000

More photos » by Ross D. Franklin - AP

Travis Hafner, soliciting coaching advice from outside the organization

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This is the eighth installment in a 12-part series.

Part of the Tribe's failure this year can be blamed on the reality that when players were failing to perform in April and May (and there were many), no one was there in Akron or Columbus to step up and provide at least temporary relief. When Fausto Carmona was busy allowing 4+ runs in 10 of his first 12 starts, who was there to step up? Sure, David Huff was there to step in and promptly allow 13 earned runs in his first 6 innings of pro ball, but who was there behind him? And behind that guy? And when the bullpen was busy reading up on seppuku rather than "how to record a major league out" for the first two months, was there really no one better than Matt Herges and Greg Aquino available to fill the holes? Mark Shapiro has said nothing more frequently than the need for depth - the need to prepare for individual failures (which are inevitable) and insure against collective failures. So where was the depth when it was needed to keep the season alive?

One explanation is that it was a failure to acquire the right talent. This is a well hashed argument, and one which might have some validity. There is another possibility, however, that perhaps it is not that we have failed to acquire the right talent, but instead failed to develop the talent we have properly. Perhaps our developmental system, again one of Shapiro's trademarks on the organization has failed. Shapiro has been lauded for installing a system based on combining traditional scouting data with rigorous quantitative assessment and emphasizing consistency throughout the system. Players are supposed to enter into the organization and hear the same things at every level. Maybe some have been hearing the wrong things.

Trying to assess how good a developmental staff the Indians have is probably going to be a failed effort on my part. To really do it right, you would have to compare how the Indians fare relative to other organizations. The best hitters get out 60% of the time. Their greatness is only visible when assessed against everyone else, who get out 69% of the time. The success rate for prospects is much lower than either of the numbers. I don't have time for a thorough comparative analysis, sadly. But we can look internally at what the Tribe has done.

I consider the goal of the developmental staff to accomplish two things:

A good system should help players achieve the potential they were viewed to have when they were drafted/signed (with obvious injury caveats).
A great system should strive to raise the ceiling of their players, and strive to turn them into better players than other teams thought they could be.

How do they do this - I have no idea. But I would like to think they identify weaknesses in a player's game and seek to improve on them. Have the Indians done that? Here are some significant minor leaguers, either assessed by performance, draft or reputation, and how they've progressed (or regressed) while in the Indians system.

2003

Michael Aubrey - Injuries make his development impossible to assess

Brad Snyder - I think Snyder's failures are viewed as a contact problem. I think it is more that he didn't hit for enough power given his high strikeout rate. Here are his K/BB rates from A+, to AA, and two years in Buffalo - 2.5, 2.5, 3, +4...that's not good.

Adam Miller - see Michael Aubrey

Javi Herrera - college defensive catcher (and 3rd round pick), never learned to hit at AA

Ryan Garko - Seems like a success story. He's never developed a lot of power, but aside from his senior year at Stanford he never had a lot of power.

Juan Valdes - Injuries (too much coffee, no doubt)

Kevin Kouzmanoff - Kouz is a developmental success for Cleveland, a guy who raised his ceiling to the point of being trade worthy for future superstar Josh Barfield

Aaron Laffey - Big developmental success. While he's always gotten groundballs in bunches, his improving K-numbers throughout his minor league career attest to his improved secondary stuff, particularly his slider.

2004

Jeremy Sowers - I think it is hard to argue Sowers as a developmental failure. He has consistently dominated the minors. The translation to the big league level is not something I feel justified in blaming the minor league staff entirely for. An argument could be made that more of an effort should have been extended to improve his fastball velocity, but that is tough without incurring all sorts of other mechanical issues.

Justin Hoyman - never got started

Scott Lewis - I think a success story from a developmental perspective. Always did well, but was always described as likely having trouble at the next level. He kept doing well at the next level, up until his injury derailment in the majors.

Chuck Lofgren - Hard to know exactly what has happened or who is to blame for Lofgren, but losing the ability to throw strikes is something I'm happy to assign partial blame to the staff.

Mike Butia - Bad pick

Chris Gimenez - The Tribe turned this 19th round pick into a guy who can play multiple positions including catcher. He's not great, but that's not a bad job for a guy not many people probably thought much of.

Carlton Smith - Another guy who the Indians are trying to turn into something useful. They've managed to take his naturally sinking stuff and turn him into an extreme groundballer out of the pen in Akron this year. I say small victory.

Wyatt Toregas - selected in the 24th round, Wyatt's performance has been up and down, but at various points they've managed to get his plate discipline and/or power up to levels that made his appearance on the big league team this year not surprising. Success.

Tony Sipp - he was a late round flyer who I think we're all glad signed. A success obviously, but it is a little troubling that Sipp's control never showed any improvement.

2005

Trevor Crowe - After looking like he was nothing in 2007 in Akron, he did rebound more towards a reasonably projection given his college performance. Not worth a first round pick, but not the developmental staff's fault.

John Drennen - Haven't been able to put together a solid approach at the plate for Drennen. It's either mediocre power with huge K-rates, or zero power with mediocre plate discipline.

Stephen Head - they really should have worked on his mustache more, or tried to put together a coherent set of skills

Nick Weglarz - projectable big guy from Ontario with limited baseball experience turned into a top prospect...Yes!

Jensen Lewis - Again, from the minor league side of things, this looks like a success

Jordan Brown - Following his 2007 season in Akron, it looked like all he needed to do was add a little power and he'd be a good guy at the plate. Instead he fell apart, losing power, discipline and contact skills. He has rebounded a lot this year, but hasn't recovered his discipline at the plate and given his defensive liabilities, isn't viewed as part of the future. In terms of development, I think Brown is probably a draw.

Kevin Dixon, Joe Ness, James Deters - These three consecutive picks from 2005 all reached Akron and promptly had their careers end, I think we can assign a little failure.

Ryan Edell - Edell, the next pick in that draft, actually made it past Akron this year. Edell is not anything special, but he has followed an advance and struggle, then come back and improve trajectory to the point where he is a depth rotation option for next season. I say success from the development perspective.

Roman Pena - Toolsy, but failed to learn how to not strike out

Neil Wagner - Once viewed as a relief prospect sleeper, Wagner's control has gotten worse as he has moved through the system

2006

David Huff - similar story to Jeremy Sowers. He really looked like he was ready in 2008, but in 2009 his stuff has been lacking. I have a hard time saying this is a failure of the minor league development staff, though.

Steven Wright - he's not a guy we talk much about, but he has slowly and steadily progressed through the system and will likely be a major part of the Columbus bullpen next year. Not a glowing victory, but not a developmental failure.

Josh Rodriguez - Rodriguez has dealt with some injuries, but this seems like a failure. He was highly thought of and got off to a nice pro start in 2007.

Wes Hodges - Again injuries have played a role, but Hodges' power and discipline have deteriorated at each level to the point where now he is a deserved after thought.

Matt McBride - Here I largely question the developmental choices the organization has made. McBride was at catcher, but got moved to corner outfield. He had enough of a projectable bat to be a major league catcher, but it would have and will take a minor miracle to make him a serviceable outfielder. I say development fail.

Adam Davis - He got worse each of his final two seasons at Florida, so I don't blame Cleveland for him not being any good, just for drafting him.

Ryan Morris - A big high-school lefty who the Indians have been unable to teach how to throw strikes

Jared Goedert - Apart from a now legendary 46 game stretch in Lake County, he is 9th round organizational fodder

Paolo Espino - Espino has been moved back and forth from rotation to bullpen, but his improved control this season was a positive step forward for him. I say one for the plus column.

Josh Tomlin - a 19th round pick, Tomlin has been steady in his performance across levels, last season as a stalwart in Akron's pitching staff, to the point of being an interesting guy. Development win.

Vinnie Pestano - Enough marginal improvement in his BB-rate to call this a minor victory.

Chris Nash - Big and raw high school firstbaseman, the Indians have never been able to translate his strength into power or any kind of plate performance. Fail.

Ryan Miller - late round flier who showed signs of life for Lake County in 2008, totally blew up in 2009.

Others

Jon Meloan - not drafted, but clearly a developmental failure. Were never able to right his once promising ship.

Asdrubal Cabrera - huge victory. Cabrera was a hugely underrated guy when we acquired him, but he has been able to translate that potential into actual performance.

Fausto Carmona - huge victory....turned huge failure? But this also involves the major league staff.

Frank Herrmann - Transition to bullpen was successful this season and might prove to be a very smart developmental move. That said, he didn't actually improve any of his numbers in the process.

Hector Rondon - Definitely looks like a victory in progress, has been getting better as he has advanced (at least until the final month of this season).

Rafael Perez - Another victory in terms of his minor league performance. Was a borderline starter turned into a momentarily great reliever.

Jeanmar Gomez - Another seeming victory in progress. His stuff has become more effective as he has moved through the system.

Josh Judy - 34th round 2007 pick, his numbers have also shown steady progress. Could warrant a bullpen look in 2010.

Carlos Rivero - was looking good, but had a definite set back this season in his AA debut

Summary

There are lots of guys I have no doubt missed, and I have intentionally left most of the guys acquired from 2007-present out, because for most of them development is still a work in progress. Generally, I think the Indians developmental system has been adequate, if not extraordinary. We have had pitching successes (Aaron Laffey) and failures (Jon Meloan), hitting successes (Asdrubal Cabrera) and failures (Brad Snyder), college successes (Ryan Garko) and college failures (Wes Hodges), high school successes (Nick Weglarz) and high school failures (Chuck Lofgren). Again, a real study would try to assess this quantitatively and comaratively, but I don't have time for that.

I will say the Indians success with pitchers have seemingly been with developing downward movement on their fastball and/or the development of a slider in particular as an effective secondary pitch. There aren't a ton of changeup success stories in the system, or guys who have developed great power fastballs.

At the plate, it is my sense that certain players who have struggled have gone back and forth between trying to achieve their power potential, while also maintaining a reasonable plate approach. Beau Mills seems to be a case of this in progress, where last season he was showing some signs of actually improving in both areas (following a half-season debut with good power and bad discipline), only to come crashing down in many ways this season. I always find it disappointing when guys who showed plus defensive skills, like Brad Snyder, could not ever quite work it out at the plate enough to get a shot at the major league level. Fire everyone! - mabe. But I'd probably rather see an easing of the constraints on the system. Not an abandonment of the over-arching organizational philosophy on player development, but an openness to the reality that Cleveland is not the greatest organization on the planet and does not have all of the answers.

Just about any individual performance success story or failure can be viewed either as a result of the player's contribution or that of the coaches - so it is impossible to really get at the latter. Only systematic problems give reasonable evidence of organizational failings in this regard. By and large I don't think the Indians system has those. I question sometimes whether the one size fits all approach to development and advancement works for everyone, but some of the player development decisions made this year (Abner Abreu, Lonnie Chisenhall, Zach Putnam) suggest a more flexible approach on behalf of the front office. The bottom line is that I think the Indians do a good job of getting players to perform to the level that is expected of them. There are not that many examples of guys turning into something more than was ever thought possible, but I would guess these are rare in every organization. There are also not a lot of total failures which don't have some major injury component to them. Fire everyone! - maybe. But I'd probably rather just see more humility in the current organizational philosophy towards development. The Indians are not the greatest organization on the planet and do not know the answers to every (or these days any) question. Allowing a little flexibility and opening the channels of communication regarding development up to a few more smart voices might not be a bad idea.

Minor League Overview: The Hitters

APV — Sat, 01 Aug 2009 14:25:31 -0000

More photos » by Charles Dharapak - AP

New Indians catcher, Lou Marson, wondering how Carlos Santana likes his coffee

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Following up on yesterday's look at the pitchers, here is an overview of how the hitters in the Indians system have fared this year. A few breakouts, a few disappointments, but mostly it has been a steady as she goes season so far...

Progress Score Leaders

Carlos Santana: 10.6
Michael Brantley: 8.8
Nick Weglarz: 8.1
Lou Marson: 7.7
Andy Marte: 7.6
Matt LaPorta: 7.4
Lonnie Chisenhall: 6.9
Carlos Rivero: 6.2
Wyatt Toregas: 5.6
John Drennen/Abner Abreu: 5.2

A few surprises, no? First, Carlos Santana, as will become apparent throughout this overview, is in a class by himself. He almost makes you wish we could have signed Casey Blake in the off-season just to trade him back to LA this year. The surprises on this list are because of two things: progress score builds into it a substantial positional component (hence all the catchers, middle infielders and guys who can manage CF), and it works off of OPS adjusted for luck and park effects. Michael Brantley and Carlos Rivero, for example, have both been pretty unlucky on balls in play according to minorleaguesplits.com. In Rivero's case, though, this seems to be a chronic condition and something which would be nice to see reversed at some point. John Drennen has quietly had a solid season. And Marson was clearly just a throw-in from Philly (Jason Donald's 2008 numbers would be good for a 6.3, also).

NET Leaders

Michael Brantley: 54
Carlos Santana: 44
Nick Weglarz: 36
Cord Phelps: 25
Matt McBride: 23
Jose Constanza: 21
Andy Marte: 18
Chris Arnal: 18
Matt LaPorta: 16
Jared Goedert: 14

NET puts a premium on control of the strike zone and speed, so seeing Brantley and Santana on the top of the list (again) shouldn't be surprising. It is somewhat surprising, and a good thing, to see Marte and LaPorta on the list. If we look at last year's numbers for our top prospects, it is striking how the guys NET likes have generally done quite well this season (Santana, Brantley, Wegz, Valbuena, Chisenhall, LaPorta), and the guys NET didn't like (Rivero, Hodges, Mills) have struggled.

Lots more...

OPS Leaders

Andy Marte: 963
Carlos Santana: 935
Jordan Brown: 910
Matt LaPorta: 901
Matt McBride: 857
Nick Weglarz: 855
Abner Abreu: 839
Lonnie Chisenhall: 835
Jared Head: 809
Nate Recknagel: 808

It is nice to see a few of our young guys who were placed somewhat aggressively by the organization, Abreu and Chisenhall, rise the occasion. Compare this list with the adjusted OPS leaders (using minorleaguesplits.com algorithm for luck and park effects).

adjusted OPS Leaders

Carlos Santana: 1039
Andy Marte: 985
Matt LaPorta: 955
Nick Weglarz: 944
Nate Recknagel: 939
Jordan Brown: 881
Lonnie Chisenhall: 880
Matt McBride: 862
Chris Gimenez: 839
Adam Abraham: 821

The top of this list is pretty nice. You might be wondering who Recknagel and Abraham are. They are former teammates from the University of Michigan, both 2008 draftees, and both too old to get excited about while playing in Lake County (Abraham is being converted into a catcher, so he has some excuse, but Recknagel is a no defense all offense guy).

OBP Leaders

Trevor Crowe: 401
Carlos Santana: 398
Nick Weglarz: 389
Lou Marson: 384
Cord Phelps: 380
Matt LaPorta: 378
Jordan Brown: 377
Jose Constanza: 370
Andy Marte: 369
Mickey Hall: 366

So this is what Trevor Crowe is supposed to do...To weed out the guys who are getting buy on high batting average, here are the walk-rate leaders.

BB/PA (%) Leaders

Mickey Hall: 18.7
Nick Weglarz: 17.4
Cord Phelps: 16.4
Carlos Santana: 16.4
Tim Fedroff: 14.3
Trevor Crowe: 14.3
Karexon Sanchez: 13.2
Matt Brown: 12.7
Lou Marson: 12.7
Jose Constanza/Lucas Montero: 11.4

This list has a bunch of guys who are probably old for their level and finding success at the top of the order. It is nice to see 2008 draftees Phelps and Fedroff doing something well, though. I was surprised to see Karexon Sanchez on this list, only because I think of him more as a massive strikeout guy (25.6%) than a plate discipline guy.

K/PA (%) Leaders

Bo Greenwell: 8.1
Chris Arnal: 8.9
Michael Brantley: 9.5
Matt McBride: 11.3
Niuman Romero: 11.8
Jared Goedert: 11.9
Carlos Rivero: 12.8
Jose Constanza: 13.1
Jordan Brown: 13.6
Adam Abraham: 14.3

For Brantley, this is actually a major regression from his out of this world number last year (5.7%). Of course, after getting off to a rough start this season Brantley's numbers have been slowly coming back. In July he struck out in just 3.1% of his plate appearances (3 times in 97 trips to the plate). And to complete the plate discipline section, the following guys all have more walks than strikeouts: Brantley (1.15 BB:K), Phelps (1.11), Greenwell (1.09), Santana (1.09), Weglarz (1.03) and Arnal (1.00).

SLG% Leaders

Andy Marte: 593
Carlos Santana: 537
Jordan Brown: 532
Matt LaPorta: 523
Matt McBride: 508
Abner Abreu: 488
Lonnie Chisenhall: 487
Nick Weglarz: 466
Nate Recknagel: 466
Jared Head: 444

And for those who prefer to removing the batting average component...

ISO (SLG-BA) Leaders

Andy Marte: 266
Carlos Santana: 257
Matt LaPorta: 226
Nick Weglarz: 223
Lonnie Chisenhall: 210
Matt McBride: 208
Jordan Brown: 199
Chris Gimenez: 199
Nate Recknagel: 196
Abner Abreu: 183

Andy Marte really wasn't fooling around in July (.487 ISO) and because of that, is at the top of these lists. Lonnie Chisehall's appearance here is evidence of his very successful season at the plate so far and a good sign for a player of his age. This list does make you wish the Indians drafted guys with power, though, doesn't it...And, because repeating this phrase brings a sense of calm to me: Carlos Santana.

HR Leaders

Carlos Santana: 19
Andy Marte: 18
Lonnie Chisenhall: 16
Nick Weglarz: 15
Matt McBride: 14
Nate Recknagel: 13
Matt LaPorta: 13
Jordan Brown: 12
Beau Mills: 10
Karexon Sanchez: 8

An old fashioned HR-leaderboard finally gives us a peak at Beau Mills and his disappointing 2009. I really thought this was going to be a breakout year for him after consolidating some of his skills at the plate last year...not so much. He has been slowly getting better month by month, but not nearly what was expected of him. No positional player has had as rough a year as Mills, who probably would have a hard time cracking a top-15 list of Indians prospects were you to put one together today.

XBH Leaders

Matt McBride: 47
Andy Marte: 43
Jordan Brown: 43
Carlos Santana: 41
Lonnie Chisenhall: 41
Matt LaPorta: 36
Nate Recknagel: 35
Nick Weglarz: 34
Beau Mills: 34
John Drennen: 32

Chicks might dig the long balls, but doubles and triples are nice, too.

Net SB Leaders

Michael Brantley: 27
Jose Constanza: 13
Lucas Montero: 10
Chris Arnal: 8
Karexon Sanchez/Jason Donald: 7

This is SB-2*CS, to account for the detrimental effect of getting caught stealing. I keep this to a top 5 (6) because while the Indians have a lot of guys who steal bases in the minors, most of them aren't doing a very good job of it. Cord Phelps is fast (apparently), but actually manages a -10 because he gets caught so much. Even Constanza and Montero get caught more than they should. Michael Brantley seems to know what he is doing on the basepaths, though.

The Movers

Going up...

Lonnie Chisenhall has done a lot to quiet his skeptics. The move off of SS lowers his positional value, and it will be nice if his improvements at third continue, but the emergence of his power this season is a great sign. His secondary components have room for improvement, but neither his walk-rate or K-rate are in the red flag territory.

Andy Marte has given himself the chance at a second life with Cleveland (maybe). He's been pretty solid all season, but his numbers are buoyed considerably by his torrid July. It'll be interesting to see if major league pitchers still exploit him at the plate.

Abner Abreu was having a great full season debut until he separated his shoulder. He has worrying plate discipline issues (one of the reasons it would have been nice to get him another 200 plate appearances this year), but he also has real power.

Michael Brantley has had a phantom good year. The constant glowing reports from the Indians coaching staff about Brantley seemed to be counter to his somewhat pedestrian offensive numbers...but perhaps the Indians coaching staff knows something. Brantley's numbers suggest he's been driving the ball hard, but right at people a lot of the time.

Carlos Santana is without any debate the Indians top prospect right now.

Going down...

Beau Mills, as I said above, has not had a good season. He isn't old, but given his defensive limitations, he really needs to hope for a big turnaround season next year (and now might be a good time to start).

We spent a fair amount of money to sign Tim Fedroff and so far, the return hasn't been great. He's good at drawing walks, but for a guy with very little power he strikes out way too much (20.8%).

Looking more closely at his numbers, Carlos Rivero hasn't had as bad of a year as I thought. His plate discipline numbers are still good, he's still playing at short, but he's developing a bad habit of under-performing his stats. According to the minorleaguesplits.com numbers, Rivero has gotten unlucky every season of his career at the plate. It makes me wonder if there isn't something systemic in the way Rivero puts balls in play that the site is adjusting incorrectly for. Also, given his size, it'd be nice to see more power from him.

Final Thought

It is clear to see why the Indians have begun focusing on 2011. It is possible that by then Matt LaPorta, Carlos Santana, Michael Brantley and Nick Weglarz will all be regulars in Cleveland. These are all potential impact guys. Behind them are a few younger guys who are interesting, but also a lot of guys who represent decent organizational depth guys. I wouldn't be surprised to see the Indians lose a few guys in the Rule 5 over the next few years who stick and have some success elsewhere.

Early Weekend 6-pack (7/30/09)

APV — Thu, 30 Jul 2009 21:50:26 -0000

This week's early weekend 6-pack is going to be heavily focused on prospects - in part because we have so many new ones coming in, but also because I've started working on an end of July minor league system overview (hopefully out sometime this weekend). But as with Betancourt, Lee, Francisco and Garko have all been here long enough to get an early weekend salute.

1. The sleepy kitten has left the building

Lee had about as interesting, or perhaps unexpected, 7-year run in Cleveland as is possible. Coming in as the second big piece of the Colon deal, Clifton Phifer Lee achieved quite a bit of success early on in Cleveland. In his first two full seasons in the rotation, 2004 and 2005, Cliff went 32-13 with a 4.56 ERA. It was in part derived from luck (2004...) and at times he struggled with control and HR tendencies (52 in those two seasons), but Cliff showed three good major league pitches enough to be considered at times the perfect compliment to CC Sabathia in a young rotation. Ironically, the Indians big step forward in 2007 coincided with Lee's big step back. The homeruns (17 in just 97 innings) and control caught up to him and his ERA ballooned over 6 as he made just 16 starts with the big league club. He even got some work out of the bullpen in a hope that he would regain some usefullness for the club. But he didn't, and so as the Indians moved in the postseason, Cliff wasn't even part of the roster. Lee then found himself auditioning for the 5th starter role heading into 2008, eventually winning it more by default than performance. But something clicked as the regular season began. His pitches, all of them, were hitting their locations with zest, all of them. After giving up 17 HRs in less than 100 innings the previous season, he gave up just 12 in a career high 223 innings in 2008. He walked a league leading low 1.4 batters per 9 innings. Despite the disappointment of the season for the team, Cliff Lee's unarguable Cy Young (and back-to-back with CC for Cleveland) highlighted the season. And this season, without quite as much success, Lee has been doing much the same. To show what an unexpected turnaround Lee made in 2008, here are the numbers from his first 7 starts of the 2008 season.

6-0, 0.67 ERA, 53.2 IP, 32 H, 1 HR, 4 ER, 4 BB, 44 K, .412 OPS against

Memo to the Columbus to Cleveland shuttle bus - that is how you nail down your rotation spot.

2. Here's to you, Ryan Garko

Garko's career line in Cleveland (which in a very strange coincidence includes an identical number of minor league and major league ABs):

409 G, .282/.354/.449, 1411 AB, 398 H, 72 2B, 53 HR, 235 RBI, 180 R

Compared to his minor league career in the organization:

388 G, .293/.379/.488, 1411 AB, 414 H, 84 2B, 60 HR, 251 RBI, 216 R

And not to be forgotten, Garko was pretty good in the 2007 playoffs (.314/.385/.514). I tried to find that image of Garko shotgunning a beer from one of the 2007 playoff locker room celebrations, but failed. This is a nice picture of him, though (and several other no longer with us and possibly soon to be gone guys):

3. The Ben Francisco-Ryan Garko love-hate cycle goes on

High school teammates, college rivals (UCLA, Stanford). Cleveland teammates, NL rivals. Francisco is not a bad fourth outfielder candidate, especially for an NL team, and now he gets the opportunity to be just that. Unlike Garko, Francisco spent more time in the minors (.291/.357/.459, 611 games) than in the majors (.261/.332/.437, 234 games). Baseball...like the civil war, pitting brother against brother, but with better hot dogs.

4. About those prospects...

Jason Knapp, age: 18.9, low-A (SAL)
2009: 2-7, 4.01 ERA, 3.09 FIP, 17 GS, 85.1 IP, 63 H, 3 HR, 39 BB, 111 K
Carlos Carrasco, age: 22.3, AAA (IL)
2009: 6-9, 5.18 ERA, 3.91 FIP, 20 GS, 114.2 IP, 118 H, 14 HR, 38 BB, 112 K
Jesse Todd, age: 23.2, AAA (PCL)
2009: 4-2, 2.20 ERA, 2.62 FIP, 41 G, 49 IP, 39 H, 3 HR, 13 BB, 59 K
Connor Graham, age: 23.6, high-A (CAL)
2009: 7-4, 3.14 ERA, 3.56 FIP, 16 GS, 80.1 IP, 68 H, 41 BB, 87 K
Scott Barnes, age: 21.9, high-A (CAL)
2009: 12-3, 2.85 ERA, 3.87 FIP, 18 GS, 98 IP, 82 H, 29 BB, 99 K
Lou Marson, age: 23.1, AAA (IL)
2009: .294/.382/.370, 63 G, 13 2B, 1 HR, 30 BB (12.4%), 40 K (16.6%)
Jason Donald, age: 24.9, AAA (IL)
2009: .236/.297/.332, 51 G, 15 2B, 1 HR, 14 BB (6.1%), 53 K (23.0%)

5. I'm just going to steal this list from Jay, who posted it in one of the threads

This is where all these players fit in (roughly) according to Kevin Goldstein's preseason rankings from Baseball Prospectus:

Five-Star Prospects
1. Matt LaPorta, LF
1. Carlos Carrasco, RHP
1.5 Justin Masterson, RHP*
2. Carlos Santana, C
Four-Star Prospects
3. Nick Weglarz, LF
3. Chris Perez, RHP
Three-Star Prospects
4. Adam Miller, RHP
5. Beau Mills, 1B
5. Lou Marson, C
5. Jess Todd, RHP
6. Hector Rondon, RHP
6. Jason Donald, SS
7. David Huff, LHP
8. Connor Graham, RHP
8. Nick Hagadone, RHP
8. Trevor Crowe, OF
9. Carlos Rivero, SS
10. Lonnie Chisenhall, SS
10. Jason Knapp, RHP
10. Bryan Price, RHP
11. Michael Brantley, CF/1B
unranked
Scott Barnes, LHP

UPDATE: I added the players acquired for Victor into this list. Masterson was beyond rookie status and thus was not ranked by Goldstein as a prospect in the preseason. However, Goldstein also ranks each team's "Top 10 Talents 25 and Under," and Masterson is placed on that list in between Boston's #1 and #2 prospects, each of whom is rated a five-star prospect. Just think — Brantley no longer makes it into the Indians pre-season Top 20, based on who would eventually be with the team. [Jay]

6. Hmm....here are the new guys with their 2008 and 2009 season-to-date Progress Score (PS) and Net

NAME	Jason Knapp	Carlos Carrasco	Jesse Todd	Connor Graham	Scott Barnes	Lou Marson	Jason Donald
2008 PS	4.54	6.63	1.39	-0.16	8.30	7.3	6.3
2009 PS	1.85	1.04	6.23	-2.14	0.19	7.9	4.2
2008 NET	20	39	34	14	45	18	5
2009 NET	45	18	34	0	39	5	-16

more to come...

Minor Action: April edition

APV — Fri, 01 May 2009 17:08:16 -0000

More photos » by Tony Dejak - AP

Aaron Laffey was the first Clipper to join Cleveland's pitching staff this season, but Jeremy Sowers might not be far behind.

Browse more photos »

A month into the season, I think it is fair to begin looking more systematically at how the significant guys in our minor league system are faring. I’ll focus my attention on the guys that matter, a few exceptional performances from guys that probably don’t matter, and last year’s draft class.

Columbus (9-12, last place)

I really thought Columbus would dominate this season given the talent there. So far, not so much – although they have quite a few great individual performances.

Matt LaPorta: .352/.431/.676, 9.8 BB%, 9.8K%, 11 XBHs, +11 Net

For those who were beginning to get nervous about LaPorta at the end of last season…relax. Quite simply, there is nothing not to like about LaPorta’s line. The countdown is well underway as to when we will see him in Cleveland.

Luis Valbuena: .311/.427/.500, 16.7 BB%, 14.4 K%, 8 XBHs, +7 Net

I argued in a recent GameThread that Valbuena’s performance is in many ways more interesting than LaPorta’s. Valbuena is easily handling AAA pitching while, based on team reports, displaying stellar middle-infield defense. It’s hard for me to not get overly excited about a Cabrera-Valbuena DP combination. Great defense. +.400 OBP. Muy buena.

Michael Brantley: .217/.299/.275, 9.1 BB%, 18.2 K%, 3 XBHs, -1 Net

Brantley has struggled with hamstring issues and is clearly not feeling comfortable at the plate. He’s already more than halfway to his entire 2008 strikeout total. After his rave reviews in spring training, this is disappointing.

David Huff: 3-0, 4.09 ERA, 5.02 FIP, 10.0 BB%, 21.1 K%, 36 GB%, -5 Net

Huff is not off to an extraordinary start, and yet has still been effective. Keeping the K-rate over 20% even when he clearly has not been at his best is nice to see. I expect to see his walk rate come back down and GB rate go back up.

Jeremy Sowers: 1-1, 2.25 ERA, 2.61 FIP, 4.8 BB%, 21.2 K%, 42 GB%, +7 Net

Reports have Sowers throwing 93mph, his control has been fantastic so far, and he is getting strikeouts at a higher rate than he has since his debut campaign in 2005. I think many of us, myself included, are skeptical of Sowers. But his success so far this season cannot be ignored and might be the most important performance in Columbus so far this season.

Others…
David Dellucci: .414/.469/.517 – With Hafner DLed, Dellucci’s return is imminent
Michael Aubrey: .404/.431/.635 – I highlight him only because he’s been on a tear
Josh Barfield: .341/.370/.409 – on a 7 game hit streak
Jordan Brown: .309/.371/.509 – another first baseman!
Wes Hodges: .273/.284/.351 – teaming up with Brantley to bring down the offense
Andy Marte: .273/.333/.409 – who? (24 plate appearances)
Chris Gimenez: .151/.270/.245 – another slow, injury tainted start
Wyatt Toregas: .281/.351/.594 – has taken advantage of Gimenez’s struggles with 3 HRs in the past week
John Meloan: 14IP, 14H, 3HR, 4BB, 14K, 5.01 FIP – two bad outings

Akron (16-4, first place)

Despite some early season hitting problems, Akron is finding a way to win in impressive fashion.

Carlos Santana: .262/.405/.623, 19.2 BB%, 14.1 K%, 10 XBHs, +12 Net

As I said yesterday, not all .260 averages are created equally. Santana has been a stud and has done nothing to dampen optimism about his future.

Beau Mills: .266/.286/.380, 2.4 BB%, 14.3 K%, 7 XBHs, -5 Net

This could be going better for Beau. He made big improvements in his plate patience last year, it’d be nice to see him get that back.

Nick Weglarz: .089/.243/.143, 14.3 BB%, 27.1 K%, 1 XBH, -7 Net

Biggest disappointment so far. I wonder how long the Indians will let him struggle before trying to put him into a more comfortable environment, either against lower competition or with a former hitting coach.

Carlos Rivero: .208/.296/.292, 11.0 BB%, 17.1 K%, 4 XBHs, -1 Net

Also disappointing, though the peripherals are much better than with Weglarz. And for whatever it is worth, minorleaguesplits.com suggests he has been getting pretty unlucky with balls in play.

Hector Rondon: 4-0, 1.17 ERA, 2.37 FIP, 4.4 BB%, 24.4 K%, 47 GB%, +14 Net

By all accounts and by all measures Rondon has been sensational. Better competition, more strikeouts, fewer walks, more groundballs, better outcome. If he keeps this up for another month I expect he’ll get an early promotion to Columbus.

Others…
Jeanmar Gomez: 3-2, 3.62 FIP (A+/AA), just made his first start in Akron after getting called up, but has shown improved BB/K numbers so far this season. One to keep an eye on.
Josh Rodriguez: .314/.478/.353 – Valbuena makes it easy to forget Rodriguez exists. Exceptional patience covering up a lack of power so far. Also, 4 errors in the field.
Chuck Lofgren: 1-0, 3.69 FIP – Can 6 no-hit innings in his last outing and back to back great starts awaken long dormant hope?
Jose Constanza: .323/.400/.419, 10/1 SB/CS – this guy just hangs around as a mildly interesting speedy centerfielder…

Kinston (11-10, first place tie)

More great pitching, coupled with some nice performances by highly thought of 2008 draftees in Carolina…

Kelvin De La Cruz: 2-0, 1.50 ERA, 2.09 FIP, 4.4 BB%, 42.2 K%, 29 GB%, +12 Net

The tall lefty absolutely crushed the Kinston competition in his first two starts, getting 19 of his 36 outs via the K. Unfortunately he has been shelved since then, resting a sore arm. Fingers crossed.

Eric Berger: 2-1, 1.42 ERA, 2.20 FIP, 10.5 BB%, 34.2 K%, 44 GB%, +15 Net

Eric, who turned 23 last week, is picking up where he left off last season in his successful debut. His numbers are actually dragged down somewhat by a bad first start.

Zack Putnam: 2-0, 5.00 ERA, 2.23 FIP, 5.4 BB%, 25.7 K%, 56 GB%, +15 Net

Another 2008 draftee off to a great start (pay more attention to the FIP than the ERA). Putnam got hit with a linedrive in his last start, forcing him out after just 2 innings, but word is he should be fine going forward. A nice competition between Putnam and Berger to see who might get promoted to Akron first.

Cord Phelps: .306/.452/.444, 19.1 BB%, 14.9 K%, 9 XBHs, +11 Net

Tim Fedroff: .303/.422/.455, 16.9 BB%, 21.7 K%, 7 XBHs, +2 Net

Two more 2008 draftees continuing the early season trend of outstanding patience at the plate. For both of these, but especially Fedroff given his K-rate, it’d be nice to see a little more power.

Lonnie Chisenhall: .274/.344/.440, 8.6 BB%, 21.5 K%, 6 XBHs, -6 Net

Lonnie got some love from Baseball America after homering in 3 consecutive games earlier in April. Has cooled down a little since then, but the power and positive reviews of his defense at 3rd (although 4 errors) are nice to see. It’d be good to see him make a little better contact.

Others…

Matt McBride: .412/.468/.718 – yeah, yeah, yeah…
Dallas Cawiezell: 12.1IP, 3 BB, 15 K, 2.22 FIP
CC Lee: 14 IP, 6 BB, 17 K, 5.03 FIP

Lake County (8-12, 6th place)

As I mentioned in last week’s early weekend 6-pack, it’s another loaded pitching staff-very little offense club on Cleveland’s East Side this season.

Abner Abreu: .208/.240/.292, 2.7 BB%, 38.7 K%, 5 XBHs, -24 Net

It doesn’t really matter what kind of moon shots you hit in batting practice if you rack up 29 Ks and just 2 walks in your first 75 plate appearances.

Karexon Sanchez: .268/.342/.493, 8.8 BB%, 30.0 K%, 7 XBHs, -2 Net

Add in 8/0 SB/CS and Sanchez is another guy hanging around the peripheries of the interesting crowd. I’m admittedly biased, though, as I really hope to one day witness, for at least one inning of one game, an infield that includes Karexon Sanchez, Asdrubal Cabrera and Luis Valbuena – just for the scrabble points.

Joey Mahalic: 0-1, 1.00 ERA, 3.31 FIP, 8.8 BB%, 20.6 K%, 64 GB%, +7 Net

The 20-year old veteran of the Captains pitching staff, following in the organizational footsteps of Aaron Laffey (albeit about a year behind in terms of age). Might get promoted to Kinston soon.

Alexander Perez: 0-0, 1.99 ERA, 3.00 FIP, 8.0 BB%, 26.1 K%, 58 GB%, +11 Net

19-year old Dominican is off to a great start. The Latin American scouting department has been doing its job well.

TJ House: 1-1, 1.53 ERA, 3.76 FIP, 14.5 BB%, 21.1 K%, 51 GB%, +3 Net

Some control problems, but an encouraging debut from the 19-year old House.

Santo Frias: 1-0, 2.38 ERA, 2.20 FIP, 13.3 BB%, 40.0 K%, 53 GB%, +12 Net

One of my favorites going into last season (especially paired with Lord Kelvin) is coming back from missing most of last season with injury. Working out of the bullpen in the early season he has been fantastic. It’d be nice to see him either move back into the rotation at some point or up to Kinston.

Others…

Nate Recknagel: .327/.411/.449 – big 2008 U of M draftee will need to show more power given his defensive limitations
Jeremie Tice: .246/.342/.362 – 2008 college draftee…
TJ McFarland: 0-2, 7.13 ERA, 4.49 FIP – control and BABIP problems for this 19-year old