SB Nation - Clete Thomas

Why (And How) The Cubs Should Trade For Curtis Granderson

Al — Fri, 20 Nov 2009 17:39:01 -0000

by Duane Burleson - AP

In addition to a good bat, Curtis Granderson would give the Cubs plus defense in CF.

I'm not sure I really have to convince anyone here of the premise of the headline of this article; numerous people have already posted here about how useful Curtis Granderson would be in the Cubs' outfield, and several traditional media articles in both Chicago and Detroit have discussed this possibility (and those are just three examples of dozens of such articles). Granderson himself is busy this winter pitching a reality TV series:

The Detroit Tigers player has agreed to host a TV and online series titled "Stadium Secrets" where he takes sports fans on an exploration of stadiums.

The concept is similar to Authentic’s "Cities of the Underworld" on History channel.

"Authentic will be providing an exclusive, VIP experience for fans everywhere – a behind-the-scenes journey that will be exciting for all of us. I am eager to begin working on this project and look forward to a successful partnership," Granderson said.

Sounds interesting. I'm hoping Granderson gets to explore Wrigley Field in detail starting next summer. In the meantime, after the jump I'm going to examine Granderson's numbers in detail, explain why he's a perfect fit for Chicago and the Cubs, and look at who the Cubs might have to give the Tigers in exchange.

We have to first start this discussion with a couple of assumptions. First, we assume that Milton Bradley has been, or will be, traded before any Granderson deal, thus opening up center field for the Cubs (with Kosuke Fukudome moving back to right field, a position he plays better; this would solidify Cubs defense in two positions). It is, of course, possible that Bradley could be part of a deal for Granderson, but I am going to operate here under the assumption that he's not, that Bradley will be dealt to some other team (the Rays?) and that any Granderson trade would be a separate transaction.

Second, I think you have to assume that Granderson has to be, at this stage of his career -- he will be 29 on March 16, not old, but getting toward the end of his "best" year capability -- platooned, at least to some extent. His career splits:

vs. RHP: .292/.367/.528, .894 OPS
vs. LHP: .210/.270/.344, .614 OPS

Last year it was even more extreme:

vs. RHP: .275/.358/.539, .897 OPS
vs. LHP: .183/.245/.239, .484 OPS

Against RHP, Granderson hits almost as well as Aramis Ramirez -- All-Star level. Against LHP... well, he's basically Aaron Miles. So you'd probably want to re-sign Reed Johnson to give Granderson a break against LHP. Johnson doesn't hit righthanders, but against LHP his career line is .313/.378/.463, an OPS of .841, nearly as good as Granderson vs. RHP. These two together would produce outstanding offensive numbers from the CF position and good defense. The Tigers started Granderson in 155 games in 2009 because, well, they really didn't have any other choice. The other eight (remember, the Tigers played 163 games in 2009) games were started by Josh Anderson (1), Clete Thomas (2) and Ryan Raburn (5), and of those guys, only Raburn can hit (he hits LHP pretty well -- the Tigers could have gotten more offense out of CF if they had played Raburn there a bit more often vs. LHP).

So a modified platoon of Granderson and Reed Johnson would be, in my opinion, the ticket to success for the Cubs outfield. I say "modified" because Johnson would also have to spell Fukudome in RF from time to time; on those days, Granderson would have to start in CF vs. LHP. Sam Fuld would stick with the team as the fifth outfielder, someone who could take over in the late innings for Alfonso Soriano. The Cubs' outfield would be very good defensively and close to outstanding offensively.

Granderson's contract, though it has three full years to run (and a 2013 option) is not onerous. Like many Jim Hendry contracts in recent years, it's backloaded. In 2010, Granderson is due to make a somewhat-reasonable $5.5 million; that increases to $8.25 million in 2011 and $10 million in 2012, with a $2 million buyout in 2013 (all figures, as always, from the excellent Cot's Baseball Contracts), that would increase to $13 million (with some escalators to that based on performance) if the option is exercised. That would make the total financial commitment $25.25 million (presuming the buyout is done), spread over four years from 2010-2013. That's not unreasonable for a player of Granderson's ability.

Now -- how do you get him? The Tigers seem to be in partial-sell mode; that is, they'd like to shed some of their big-dollar contracts, but not get into full rebuilding mode. Thus, you'd need to get them at least a couple of players who could step in right now and contribute at the major league level. I can't find the link right now, but in a recent Baseball America online chat, a question was asked to BA's Jim Callis about this type of deal:

Q: Would Josh Vitters, Jake Fox, and Jay Jackson be enough for the Cubs to land Curtis Granderson if he really is available? Would you do that deal if you were the Cubs?

Jim Callis: I would think so. The Tigers have to dump salary, so I might try to hold onto Vitters and see if Detroit would take Ryan Flaherty, or hold onto Jackson and offer a lesser pitcher. But the Cubs are in win-now mode, and I think they'd bite.

I'd do this deal. Starlin Castro may be the flavor-of-the-month after his .376/.396/.491 performance in the Arizona Fall League, but I think he has higher upside than Vitters, who also hit well in the AFL (.353/.380/.455), and I would not trade Castro. It's entirely possible that Vitters will become a good major league player -- but you're getting a good major league player in return. Jake Fox is miscast in the National League; though he worked hard at playing 3B, C, LF and RF, his best position is DH. Throw in the fact that he played college ball at the University of Michigan, and he's a natural for Detroit. Jay Jackson has been up and down in the Cubs organization and while he has talent, I'm not quite sure what role the Cubs have in mind for him. He was exclusively a starter in 2009 after starting and relieving in 2008.

Callis thinks this would get a deal done and I'd do it -- but I suspect the Tigers might ask for Andrew Cashner instead of Jackson. That's a high price to pay -- Cashner has a shot at the major league bullpen for the Cubs in 2010 and he could even be viewed as a closer candidate by the Tigers, who are likely to let Fernando Rodney walk. (Rodney had a decent year in his first full season as closer, but will be 33 in March.)

I'd still do Vitters, Cashner and Fox for Granderson. For those of you who say, "No way! Keep those prospects! We can't give up both Vitters and Cashner!", I say that one of the things you can do with your prospects is turn them into productive major league players. The Cubs did this in acquiring Derrek Lee and Aramis Ramirez; when D-Lee was acquired he was just about the same age Granderson is now.

I might even do Vitters, Fox, Cashner AND Jackson for Granderson. To illustrate why, let me tell you a little story I just read about from Cubs history. Take it for what it's worth, because it came from the new edition of Leo Durocher's (ghostwritten by Ed Linn) autobiography, "Nice Guys Finish Last" (mini-book-review: recommended, for its interesting take on Durocher's era in baseball history). In it, he describes having discussions along with GM John Holland, with the Baltimore Orioles in the winter of 1971 about trading for Frank Robinson. According to the book, the Orioles asked for five young players -- pitchers Earl Stephenson, Jim Colborn, Bill Bonham, Joe Decker and outfielder Brock Davis. Durocher's book says they hedged, asking to make it four-for-one, not wanting to give up both Decker and Bonham.

You know what? They should have offered Baltimore GM Frank Cashen a handshake and done the deal right then and there. The next day, Robinson was traded to the Dodgers -- for four minor leaguers, only one of whom (Doyle Alexander) had a significant major league career.

The day after that, the Cubs traded Stephenson, Colborn and Davis to the Brewers for Jose Cardenal. Stephenson and Davis never had any significant impact in the major leagues. Colborn did have a few decent major league seasons, winning 20 games for the Brewers in 1973. Bill Bonham never became the big winner the Cubs thought he would; eventually he was traded to the Reds for Woodie Fryman and Bill Caudill. Joe Decker was traded to the Twins (with Bill Hands) a year later for Dave LaRoche.

None of those deals would have had the impact that getting Frank Robinson to play right field for the 1972 Cubs would have had. At 35, Robinson was past his best years, but would have been a far better hitter in Wrigley Field than he was in Dodger Stadium that year. (Robinson also got hurt in 1972 and missed almost 60 games; whether that would have happened to him as a Cub is unknown, obviously.)

The 1972 Cubs finished fourth in the league in runs scored and would have been a better offensive team with Frank Robinson than they were with Jose Cardenal; neither Bonham nor Decker had any significant impact on the '72 team.

The point is, that sometimes you have to take team "prospects" -- who may never pan out to what you hope they will -- to win now. Trading Vitters and Jay Jackson -- or even Vitters, Jackson and Cashner -- may provide dividends to the Detroit Tigers two or three years down the road. But acquiring Curtis Granderson, who, in addition to his talent on the field, is also, from all reports, a good clubhouse guy who spends a lot of time giving back to the community (and is a native Chicagoan), would go a long way to helping the 2010 Cubs return to the playoffs and give them a chance to win it all.

And isn't that what we all want?

As we often say here... GETITDON EJIM.

Morning Prowl: Tom Brookens, Clete's Jersey Retired, Rising Stars, and Yesterday's Trades

Ian Casselberry — Fri, 06 Nov 2009 13:00:31 -0000

Double-A Erie manager (and former Tigers third baseman) Tom Brookens says he'd be interested in a major league coaching job if one was offered. Will the Tigers offer him the first base coach position vacated by Andy Van Slyke?

Clete Thomas had his high school jersey retired on Wednesday. Thomas wore No. 3 at Mosley High School in Lynn Haven, FL. (I'm sure Gary Sheffield would've given that up willingly.) It's the first baseball number the school's ever retired. (You can see a list of his prep achievements here.)

Here's more on the ceremony, including video, from a local news station. (via 1baseball34 on Twitter)

If you want to get a look at prospects Casper Wells and Andrew Oliver, MLB Network is broadcasting the Arizona Fall League's Rising Stars Showcase Saturday night at 8:15 p.m. ET. (via MLive.com)

On his blog, Jason Beck shared some projections from the Bill James Handbook. And they look pretty kindly on Ryan Raburn next season. (Curtis Granderson and Magglio Ordonez are also viewed favorably, which would make a huge difference for next year's lineup.)

More minors: At Fangraphs, Marc Hulet looks at five Tigers minor leaguers (current or former) who are worthy of mention, but probably won't be listed among the team's top 10 prospects.

Jarrod Washburn says he'd "be surprised" if the Tigers offered him a contract for next season. Washburn sounds like a smart guy. If they were interested, Detroit has exclusive negotiating rights with Washburn, who says his knee feels better after surgery, until November 20.

If you'd like to look at who will join Washburn in free agency, here's a complete list of free agents for 2010 from MLB Daily Dish.

Anybody else look at the deal for Jeremy Hermida the Red Sox made with the Marlins, and wonder if the Tigers could've (or should've) gotten in on that action? Or would that have just added to a logjam in Detroit? (Over the Monster is a bit baffled by the trade, wondering where Hermida will play in Boston.)

Meanwhile, Mark Teahen had reportedly been traded to the White Sox for Chris Getz and Josh Fields. Or was he? As of last night, Teahen was still a Kansas City Royal.

The Big Lead has three ideas to improve the MLB playoffs. Mostly, we're linking to this because the writer called the Tigers-Twins tiebreaker "the most exciting baseball moment this season."

Those who believe the Tigers should pursue a trade with the Brewers for shortstop J.J. Hardy (unless he's non-tendered) will likely enjoy this Fangraphs article about Hardy's defense.

Have some time to kill at work today? Check out this optical illusion based on the break of a curveball. No wonder Wilkin Ramirez can't hit that thing. (I probably shouldn't have said that.)

Rake By the Lake: Tigers 11, Indians 3

Ian Casselberry — Thu, 24 Sep 2009 13:25:10 -0000

More photos » by Tony Dejak - AP

Carlos Guillen brought his home run face to the ballpark on Wednesday night, hitting two in a Tigers romp over the Indians.

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Lloyd McClendon will probably put this game on his coaching resume, don't you think?

And maybe some of us were a bit hard on Carlos Guillen. (Yes, I am looking at me.)

After enduring quite a few pitching duels recently (except when getting beat up by the Royals - argh), the Detroit Tigers' lineup flexed their muscles Wednesday night in Cleveland and put a long-awaited beating on an opponent.

Justin Masterson was not the latest unfamiliar pitcher to throw a gem against Detroit. He ended up the roadkill beneath the tire of a Tiger-striped truck, getting squashed for eight runs (six earned) and seven hits in four innings of work.

Guillen and Miguel Cabrera both hit home runs off Masterson, and BigMig's bazooka shot probably would've landed in Lake Erie if Progressive Field's left field bleachers hadn't gotten in the way. (I don't know if that's actually geographically correct. Indulge my hyperbolic description, won't you?) The homer was actually measured at 440 feet.

But Guillen found hitting a homer so nice, he decided to do it twice. And the second time around, he did it batting right-handed, against the lefty Mike Gosling. So it looks like he's getting pretty comfortable hitting from that side (unlike his first time last week, when he smacked a weak pop-up off Bruce Chen).

Overall, Guillen went 3-for-4 on the night, with four RBIs. It'll be interesting to see if that means he stays in the lineup against lefties now. Who would get squeezed out in such a scenario: Curtis Granderson in centerfield (sitting for Ryan Raburn), or Marcus Thames at DH?

Benefiting from the run parade was Rick Porcello, who continued his success against the Indians, though this may not have been his smoothest effort. Maybe Kid Rick's focus let up a bit with a 4-0 lead when he took the mound. Perhaps this umpiring crew's continally fraudulent strike zone got into his head a bit. Three walks in five innings was an unusual number for him (showing how good he's been recently, by the way), though Porcello only gave up one run.

With a series win in hand, the Tigers go for the series win tonight. The Twins are off, so this is a chance to add a half-game to their AL Central lead. Since Minnesota hasn't been losing (thank you, White Sox), Detroit should really try to capitalize on the opportunity.

Roar:

Guillen and Cabrera (2-for-4, three RBIs) had their feats of strength, but Clete Thomas also put together a nice night. Thomas batted 2-for-5 with two runs scored, and made a fantastic catch on Lou Marson's drive to the right field wall in the second inning.

Placido Polanco and Ramon Santiago also totaled two hits. (Everyone in the starting lineup got a hit, actually.)

Whimper:

Jeremy Bonderman walked two of the three batters he faced in the ninth, so you really can't call that a good night. (Jim Leyland seemed rather ticked about it after the game, not wanting to waste more relievers than necessary in a blowout.)

In Bondo's defense, he didn't miss by much on almost all of his pitches. That's not to say he was sharp, but he was around the strike zone.

Comment of the Night:

Cue fixing that run differential problem?

by demondeaconsbaseball

Misplayed and Dismayed: Royals 7, Tigers 5

Ian Casselberry — Wed, 09 Sep 2009 13:15:11 -0000

by ED ZURGA - AP

Much like Aubrey Huff's bat, the Detroit Tigers' chances at a seventh straight win snapped Tuesday night in Kansas City.

View full size photo »

Well, the Detroit Tigers weren't going to win every game in September. Though after that weekend sweep in Tampa, it's understandable if you were beginning to feel that way.

Continuing the "all good things must come to an end theme," Rick Porcello hit a bit of a speed bump against the Royals. After allowing just three runs in his past two starts, Kid Rick was knocked around a bit, giving up four runs and seven hits in six innings of work.

The main problem was that Porcello's off-speed stuff wasn't quite as sharp as it's been recently. Leaving pitches up in the strike zone means the ball gets hit in the air, and that's not when Porcello's at his best.

But it's hard to stick this one on Porcello, when the bullpen allowed three runs in the later innings and outfielders missed balls that gave the Royals extra chances to get key hits. Kid Rick left with a one-run lead largely due to Ryan Raburn misjuding Josh Anderson's line drive in the fifth, letting the ball get over his head when he took a step in.

Then in the seventh, with Ryan Perry one strike away from ending the inning, Clete Thomas just missed getting to Billy Butler's foul ball in the right-field corner. Sure, you could say Thomas had a long way to run, and he was worried about the oncoming wall. But that was a catchable ball, and the look on Thomas's face said he knew it.

Butler took advantage of the extra chance, smacking a single to left to tie the game at 5-5. Perry then followed up by leaving a fastball out over the plate (a 99 m.p.h. pitch, mind you), which Mike Jacobs was able to slap to left for a RBI single and the lead.

And after three games in which the Tigers were able to rally against the Tampa Bay Rays bullpen, Kansas City's relief corps kept Detroit off the board for four-plus innings. Somehow, Yasuhiko Yabuta, who came into the game with an 18.00 ERA, pitched 2.1 shutout innings while the Royals staged their comeback. And though the Tigers managed two singles against Joakim Soria in the ninth to mount a threat, Soria got the strikeouts when they counted.

Purr:

Though Raburn's defensive miscue cost the Tigers in the fifth, he also did plenty to try and get his team a win. Raburn went 3-for-4, with a homer and two runs scored. And in that seventh inning, with the Royals threatening to tie the game, he gunned down Yuniesky Betancourt at home plate. (And that was despite not getting the ball out of his glove cleanly.)

Comment of the Night:

Where's Grant Balfour when you need him?

by SabreRoseTiger

The Tribe's Been Broken: Tigers 4, Indians 3

Ian Casselberry — Fri, 04 Sep 2009 01:15:35 -0000

More photos » by Duane Burleson - AP

Is Placido Polanco being mobbed by teammates for driving in the winning run for a walk-off 4-3 victory over the Indians Thursday afternoon? Or is the poor guy just being mugged? You make the call.

Browse more photos »

For all the hand-wringing over the Minnesota Twins still being too close for comfort in the AL Central race (though they are now five games out of first place), the Detroit Tigers should be okay if they do what good teams usually do. Beat the teams you're supposed to, and break even against the upper tier of the league.

How are the Tigers doing with this? Last weekend, they split with the defending AL champion Rays. And after this afternoon's walk-off victory, Detroit swept the fourth-place team in the AL Central. So far, so good.

Nate Robertson pitched well for the second consecutive start, throwing six shutout innings and holding the Indians to just four hits. Cleveland really only had one decent scoring chance, getting a runner to third in the fifth inning. Once again, it was an effort deserving of a win. And this time around, Robertson got some runs from his lineup.

Unfortunately, the bullpen couldn't quite get it through to the finish. The relief corps was a bit short-handed, with Bobby Seay, Brandon Lyon, and Fernando Rodney each pitching the last two nights and presumably unavailable. (Especially with a short turnaround from night game to day game.) So it was bound to be shaky unless they were given a big lead. A three-run margin wasn't quite large enough, thanks largely to Fu-Te Ni.

Ni left a slider out over the plate to Shin-Soo Choo, who promptly launched it to the right field wall for a two-run, game-tying double. Fortunately for Ni, the game was at Comerica Park, so it wasn't a homer. But it cost Robertson a win, nonetheless, and put the final outcome in doubt.

That is, until Rafael Perez took the mound for the Indians in the 10th. Perez gave up a leadoff double to pinch-hitter Ryan Raburn, then walked the next two batters (intentionally passing Miguel Cabrera). Bases loaded, and no outs? Hey, the Tigers have been known to squander such opportunities.

But if you need one guy to put the ball in play and make a productive out, Placido Polanco is probably the one you want batting. So Jim Leyland got him in there. And when Perez teed up a slider right down the middle of the plate, Polanco made sure he did something with it. His fly ball was deep enough to center for Raburn to run in standing up for the game-winner.

Beat the teams you're supposed to beat. Especially at home. It's all part of the plan, you might say.

Roar:

Zach Miner hasn't exactly been lights-out lately. I'm sure more than a few people weren't happy when he took over for Ni in the eighth. But the Tigers don't win today without his 2.1 hitless innings of relief. And the one walk he allowed was negated when Gerald Laird threw out Michael Brantley attempting to steal.

Of course, the Tigers also wouldn't have built a three-run lead without Clete Thomas's two-run triple in the seventh. So kudos to him, as well.

Comment of the Day:

Ok, hands up, who predicted a Carmona/Robertson pitchers duel?

anyone with their hand up is a filthy stinkin’ liar :)

by ahtrap

And your runner-up, even though most people probably weren't in the mood for singing after Ni gave up those two runs.

Mighty Polly at the Bat: Tigers 4, Rays 3

Ian Casselberry — Sun, 30 Aug 2009 20:15:58 -0000

More photos » by Duane Burleson - AP

What was almost another frustrating loss for Justin Verlander became an exciting victory, his 15th of the season to tie the American League lead.

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Just like that, it can change.

For 7.2 innings, this was a lazy Sunday rerun for the Tigers and their fans. Another day of letting a pitcher cruise through seven innings without making him work. Another decent pitching performance wasted by pop-gun run support. Here we go again.

That is, until Tampa took Jeff Niemann out of the game after allowing a double to Clete Thomas to lead off the eighth. (Niemann had only thrown 96 pitches by that point.)

Grant Balfour got his first two batters out, but apparently wanted nothing to do with Curtis Granderson, walking him on five pitches. He then fell behind Placido Polanco 2-0, before teeing a third fastball up in the strike zone. Polanco jumped on the pitch, and got just enough punch on it to send it over the left field fence. (Okay, the wind might have helped a bit.)

And just like that, what looked like a lethargic snoozefest became a heist job. The Tigers flat out stole one from the Rays today. They got the pitching from Justin Verlander (three runs and six hits over eight innings), they just needed a big hit to go along with it. Finally, Polanco got one that was just big enough. Yet another magic act at home.

Roar:

Thomas had a 3-for-3 day at the plate, but it's that third one - the leadoff double in the eighth - that mattered the most. The Cult of Clete will celebrate tonight.

Whimper:

Did Miguel Cabrera start to hear that MVP talk? The Tigers won two games this weekend in spite of him, as he went hitless. 0-for-11, to be exact.

Comment of the Day:

I TOLD YOU THEY'D BE ASKIN FOR TROUBLE!

I love Rod Allen.

by simscity

And your runner-up. Just like that, it goes from pouting to singing.

Not So Sweet on Clete?

Ian Casselberry — Tue, 25 Aug 2009 18:30:56 -0000

At The Spot Starters, Blake doesn't understand Tiger Town's love for Clete Thomas (comparing it to the adoration so many have for Brandon Inge).

In particular, he calls me out for driving the bandwagon with the whole "Cult of Clete" movement.

Clete Thomas is turning into a cult hero in Detroit and I am completely baffled. I know my mom likes him because she thinks he’s cute. That can’t explain his entire following though, can it?

Ian of Bless You Boys has been all over Clete since day one and is probably the person actually driving the band wagon. He’s even selling shirts.

From what I can gather, here’s why people like Clete:

He’s a lefty.

He’s young.

He’s not paid all that much.

He’s got that blue-collar image going, people like that.

He has country music playing when he comes up to bat.

They think he’s "clutch".

His name is Clete.

I can't speak for everyone, of course. Though I do question just how much of this perception is based on what's read online. Does Clete have that much of a following in the "real world"? Maybe I haven't been to enough games this season, but when I've been at Comerica Park, I haven't seen too many "Thomas 34" jerseys and t-shirts in the stands. The cheers for him don't seem particularly loud.

But I'll try my best to address this (Rogo has brought it up to at DesigNate Robertson), since BYB has contributed (with perhaps some unfortunate decisions) to whatever cult following Clete Thomas actually has.

First of all, there's more than a little bit of irony in this whole "Cult" thing. And I'd like to think Blake realizes that. I joked about Thomas becoming a sensation after the third game of last season. We didn't even know who this guy was back then.
More than anything else, I think that's what fuels any interest in Thomas. Everyone likes to see one player come out of nowhere to make the team. It's what we look for almost every spring. And Thomas wasn't a hotshot prospect, either.
Yes, of course the name has something to do with it.
But I think there were some practical aspects to the interest, too. Last year, the Tigers desperately needed a left-handed hitting outfielder who could provide some defense amongst all those lumbering sluggers. And having some youthful spark mixed in with a veteran roster (who apparently presumed they could flip the switch at any time) was also intriguing. He was one guy playing hard on a team that thought they could win just by showing up.

And it's not like rooting for Clete Thomas is completely without merit. He's come through in some big moments over the past two seasons. He's the second-best defensive outfielder on the team, which isn't exactly unimportant.

However, it's not blind adoration, either. Hell, I've criticized him myself for striking out too much. Clete should be playing better, and the fact that he gets regular playing time while batting .241 is an indictment on the rest of Detroit's outfield depth. More than likely, he'll be back in Toledo this weekend when the Tigers call up another pitcher.

(EDIT: I should've read Billfer's post on playoff eligibility rules before writing that last sentence. If the Tigers were to send Clete down this weekend, he couldn't be on the playoff roster. So that's probably not going to happen.)

But for those who really have a problem with fans rooting for a player you believe doesn't deserve the attention, I ask what exactly is it that offends you? What's it to you?

Should we just all root for Miguel Cabrera because he's the superstar? (Is he not getting enough cheers, by the way?) Should we just go see G.I. Joe instead of The Hurt Locker because it's playing in more theaters? Eat more McDonald's, because it's a national name, rather than the family-owned diner?

What's wrong with rooting for an underdog? Isn't that what's supposed to make sports fun?

The Pop-Gun Offense Returns: Athletics 3, Tigers 2

Ian Casselberry — Sun, 23 Aug 2009 14:35:22 -0000

More photos » by Jeff Chiu - AP

If time froze right at this moment, the A's might not have beaten the Tigers last night. Alas, it never stops, and Adam Kennedy scored the game-winning run in a 3-2 Oakland victory.

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It's a story we've seen before with the Detroit Tigers, one we've watched far too many times this season. Yet again, the offense failed to capitalize on several scoring opportunities. As a result, a decent pitching performance was wasted, and the margin for error was paper-thin.

Shall we count the ways in which the Tigers squandered scoring chances last night?

Detroit did score a run in the first, taking an early 1-0 lead. But with two runners on, no outs, and the middle of the batting order coming up, it could've been a big inning. Instead, three straight groundouts yielded just one run.
In the fourth, the Tigers had runners on first and second with one out. But Clete Thomas struck out, and Brandon Inge hit a grounder to shortstop.
After a Miguel Cabrera RBI single tied the game 2-2, Detroit had runners on first and second. But Thomas and Inge blew another chance to add more runs, as both batters made fly ball outs.

These are not what Rod Allen would call "productive outs."

Some credit should go to A's pitcher Trevor Cahill, who's now pitched three consecutive quality starts. He seems to have figured out his sinker since the last time he faced the Tigers, in which they pounded him for seven runs in less than three innings. Detroit kept hitting into groundouts, rather than putting the ball in the air (preferably into the gap).

But as Jim Leyland lamented after the game, his presumed sluggers aren't getting the big hit - more importantly, an extra-base hit - when needed. Other than Cabrera's deep drive to right-center that ricocheted off the wall, resulting in quite possibly the longest single ever hit, the Tigers could barely hit the ball out of the infield with runners on base.

Purr:

Against a better team, Armando Galarraga probably would've given up more than two runs. Especially in the second inning, when he loaded the bases with no outs. From there, however, Galarraga only allowed two more hits over the next four innings. That should've been enough to earn a win.

Apparently, Galarraga needed to throw a no-hitter, like Thad Weber did for Double-A Erie last night. (Hat tip to The Detroit Tigers Weblog)

Whimper:

The bottom four batters in the Tigers lineup - Thomas, Inge, Alex Avila, and Ramon Santiago - went a combined 0-for-15. Thomas and Inge left nine runners on base.

Comment of the Night:

It took a little work, but we found something amidst the All-Caps (ALL CAPS!!!!!!) frustration going on in last night's GameThread.

Jim Leyland is not impressed

with this brand of bull.

by john.kmiecik

The Ryan Raburn Show: Tigers 3, Athletics 2

Ian Casselberry — Sat, 22 Aug 2009 15:40:18 -0000

More photos » by Marcio Jose Sanchez - AP

Brandon Inge and Placido Polanco do the dance of joy following the Tigers' 3-2 win over the A's on Friday night.

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Ryan Raburn probably isn't leaving anytime soon. Not if he keeps swinging the bat like he did on Friday night.

Jim Leyland admitted before the game that Raburn likely would've been the odd man out if Detroit decided they couldn't take a six-man bullpen on their west coast road trip. But could the Tigers really send Raburn - or Clete Thomas - down to Toledo with the way they've been playing recently? And could any pitcher added to the bullpen give the team what these two outfielders have provided?

Raburn blasted two home runs in his first two at-bats, giving Detroit virtually all of its offense against Oakland's Gio Gonzalez, who racked up nine strikeouts in less than six innings. In particular, he had a nasty curveball that got some bad swings from Tigers hitters. Maybe Gonzalez should've thrown a couple of those to Raburn.

According to the Freep's John Lowe (via Baseball-Reference), that was the first time this season that the Tigers have gotten a multi-homer game from the #3 hitter in the lineup.

Edwin Jackson, meanwhile, didn't look very sharp to begin with, as he had trouble locating his fastball. But after the second inning, during which the A's tied the game at 1-1, Jackson found his groove. He only allowed four hits in his remaining four innings, and was charged with a second run when Brandon Lyon gave up a double to Rajai Davis in the seventh. Fortunately, the Tigers' lineup (or, should we say, Ryan Raburn) scored just enough runs to make sure the effort wasn't wasted.

Roar:

Fernando Rodney got the save in last night's boxscore, but Placido Polanco truly saved the game in the ninth inning. With a runner on second, pinch-hitter Nomar Garciaparra hit a hard groundball up the middle. But Polanco nabbed it with a fantastic backhand stop to get the out.

Whimper:

After an 0-for-4, two-strikeout night, Marcus Thames is batting 0-for-12 with five strikeouts in his last three games.

Comment of the Night:

the only thing Cust steals is donuts from the pre-game spread

by rock n rye

And your runner-up, which is sure to come up frequently over the next week.

Today in Pointless Trades: Detroit Acquires Aubrey Huff

devil_fingers — Tue, 18 Aug 2009 04:15:47 -0000

The opening lines of the mlb.com story (hilariously titled "Tigers acquire infielder Huff from O's") say it all:

Finally, the Tigers found help at the plate on the trade market. In turn, Aubrey Huff found arguably his best chance to finally get to the postseason.

The Tigers added the bat they've been seeking and arguably needing for most of the summer, acquiring Huff from the Orioles on Monday for Class A right-hander Brett Jacobson.
The hope from there is that he can provide a spark for an offense that has struggled to score runs for most of the season...

I don't know much about Jacobsen -- he's a former college closer from Vanderbilt whose development hit a hiccup this year. I'm sure you can read about him elsewhere.

My curiousity was aroused because I have no idea why the Tigers felt they needed to make this trade. Yes, they're in the thick of a playoff race, but Huff can barely play anywhere on defense at this point. He used to be a bad 3B, then he was a terrible OF, and now he's a below average 1B who is mostly cut out to DH. That's why the "infielder" in the mlb.com headline is so funny -- it makes it sound like he could play 2B or 3B or something. I guess he could stand ouit by second base or something and hope there aren't any grounders during the game.

The Tigers don't exactly have an obvious place for him to play elsewhere, with Carlos Guillen coming off of the DL and playing 1B or DH, although the plan was to have him play LF when the year started. Those are Huff's "positions." Oh, and then there's Miguel Cabrera. And Detroit's seemingly endless stream of bench DH/OFs from Triple-A. Let's just stipulate that Huff's alleged "versatility" on defense isn't gong to justify him getting on the field.

But we should also note that his horrible year with the bat so far (.253/.321/.405 for a .307 wOBA) for the Orioles isn't destiny. We want to know what Huff can be expected to do going forward by incorporating past data. So, back to the handy ZiPS in-season updated projections at FanGraphs to see how Huff's projected 2009 performance for the rest of the season compares to his competitors for playing time in Detroit to see if we can understand the justification for this trade.

Here are the wOBAs projected by ZiPS RoS at this time for Huff and the rest of the Motor City 1B/DH/LF/RF mafia going forward, listed from best to worst:

Player	Pos.	Bats	wOBA
Miguel Cabrera	1B	R	.402
Magglio Ordonez	OF	R	.359
Carlos Guillen	1B/OF	S	.348
Marcus Thames	OF	R	.340
Aubrey Huff	1B/OF	L	.334
Ryan Raburn	OF/3B	R	.332
Jeff Larish	1B	L	.327
Clete Thomas	OF	L	.309

I'll give Dave Dombrowski this: Huff's probably a better hitter than Clete Thomas.

I put Cabrera on there just to revel in his awesomeness. But look at that chart. If Cabrera is at 1B or DH, then there are three slots realistically left: LF, RF, and the 1B/DH spot unoccupied. And the Tigers have three guys for those spots who project as better hitters than Huff: Ordonez, Guillen, and Thames.* Heck, Ryan Raburn is almost as good with the bat and he can run a bit and play defense and at a much lower price.

* I've liked Thames ever since I watched him hit his first home run in the majors off of Randy Johnson at Yankee Stadium on the first pitch he saw.

But maybe Huff is being brought in as a platoon guy. I've spent too much time on this minor move at it is, so I'm not going to estimate specific platoon splits for each of these guys, but I'll just apply a standard splits to each player (here is an article on estimating platoon skills). Huff is a left-handed hitter, so we'll just estimate platoon skills against RHPs.

Player	Pos.	Bts	wOBA
Miguel Cabrera	1B	R	0.396
Magglio Ordonez	OF	R	0.353
Carlos Guillen	OF/1B	S	0.348
Aubrey Huff	1B/OF	L	0.343
Jeff Larish	1B	L	0.336
Marcus Thames	OF	R	0.335
Ryan Raburn	OF/3B	R	0.327
Clete Thomas	OF	L	0.317

Huff only moves up one spot, but I guess he makes it into the "mix" as a possible platoon partner for Thames. But how much of a difference is there between just playing Thames or using Larish as his DH platoon partner, really? Given these projections and estimated splits, and assuming equally terrible outfield defense (as bad as Thames is, Huff hasn't played in the OF since 2006), let's check it out.

We can use the same method used to convert wOBA to runs above average (called wRAA at FanGraphs) to get wOBA runs (wRAA, which is just a form of linear weights) above Thames (wRAT) vs. RHP . The Tigers have 45 or so games remaining. The average AL player gets about 4.3 plate appearances per game in the American League. 4.3 x 45 = ~194 plate appearances. About two thirds of those will be against RHP, whic is bout 130 plate appearances. Sooo.... (Huff vs. RHP - Thames vs LHP) x 130 = projected offensive runs gained by this trade. Let's show our work using the wOBA-to-runs formula:

((.343-.335)/1.2) x 130 = 086666667 wRAT

Rounding up, then, this trade projects to gain the Tigers 1 run in their push for the playoffs if they platoon Huff properly with Marcus Thames.

Kudos, Tigers. Here's to assuming the Orioles picked up almost all of Huf's salary and that Brett Jacobsen never amounts to anything.