SB Nation - Roy Corcoran

Is This Sparta?

Graham — Sun, 13 Sep 2009 00:21:58 -0000

More photos » by Duane Burleson - AP

His hat is stifling. It narrows his vision. And he must see far. His glove is heavy. It throws him off balance. And his target is ninety feet away.

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We've been hearing about the Mariner bullpen quite a lot this season. For a unit that was entirely comprised of question marks, it's held out particularly well, and is often cited as one of the prime reasons the Mariners have remained above .500 well into September. Perhaps no element of the team has defied expectations so much as the relief corps. With a week left in spring training, there was no closer. Late inning duties this year have been shared by a guy who was traded for a no-name last winter, someone who was a no-name last winter, a guy who's coming back from microfracture surgery in his pitching elbow, someone who isn't Tim Lincecum (he didn't last for very long), and Sean White, who is boring. Complementing the late inning boys was a random crop of AAA arms and Miguel Batista. One can only imagine how bullpen coach John Wetteland must have felt when presented with his men at the start of the year, but eventually he was able to turn them into a functional (albeit more than slightly insane) unit.

How? As the story goes, on an early-season road trip, Mark Lowe downloaded 300, which for those unfamiliar with it, is a ridiculously over-the-top movie about the Spartans at Battle of Thermopylae, which occurred during the second Persian invasion of Greece in late 480 BC (spoiler: they all die). He shared his enthusiasm for the film with Wetteland, and things snowballed from there. Members of the bullpen adopted characters from the movie, Spartan helmets popped up everywhere, and a grand ol' time was had by all. One wonders exactly how badly the relievers expected the team to do if they felt as though they identified best with a bunch of guys who all end up dead, but there's no denying it fueled an us-against-the-whole-damn-world mindset that the bullpen latched onto and used as inspiration to pitch their hearts out. The siege mentality was further reinforced when MLB officials decided to take their helmets away. Small wonder, then, that the bullpen has pitched their collective hearts out this year, keeping games just close enough for the struggling position players to scrape out more wins than losses.

This would be all well and good if the Mariner bullpen was actually as good as traditional numbers suggest. But they're not. They're not even average, despite all the one-run games and saves for David Aardsma. By using tRA-derived valuation statistics, they've been more than a quarter-century of runs below average, which turns out to be the worst mark in the American League. AL West rivals Oakland, on the other hand, are well over the +50 mark, which is a spread of almost seven and a half wins. By the numbers, they have answered the questions surrounding them in spring training, and the answer turns out to have been 'holy crap they're bad'. But this doesn't jive at all with their ability to keep them Mariners in business in close games. The team has won an absurd number of one run games, and generally has the ability to keep games close once the team turns over pitching duties to the bullpen. So what gives? Is the Mariner bullpen an above-average unit with an elite closer as the spearhead, or is David Aarsdma the equivalent of affixing a razor blade to a forty foot tall marshmallow and calling it a weapon? Or is the answer somewhere in between?

I hope it's the last option, because otherwise I've just spent a tonne of time collecting data for no good reason. Let's dig in.

Note: All data current as of 2:39 PM Sept 12th, 2009. Partial innings denoted as .3 for one out, .7 for two.

First, let's look at our cast of intrepid heroes and Denny Stark. Who's been leaned on the most? The quartet of Mark Lowe, Sean White, Miguel Batista, and David Aardsma have accounted for a little over half of the innings thrown by Mariner relievers this season, as shown in the chart below:

Figure 1: Innings pitched by Mariner relievers in 2009

Chris Jakubauskas and Shawn Kelley have also both seen significant time this year as well, and Kelley was thriving in a late-inning role until he suffered a rib injury in mid-May. Five arms have appeared in both the rotation and the bullpen, including Brandon Morrow, who began the season as the closer before a series of meltdowns got him demoted. Now that we have a pretty good idea of who's soaked up how many innings, let's take a look at their numbers in RA and tRA form:

Table 1: RA, tRA, rRAA, and pRAA for Mariner relievers in 2009

rRAA and pRAA are computed by taking the difference between league RA and tRA respectively and multiplying by innings pitched/9 for rRAA and expected innings/9 for pRAA, with Δ denoting the difference between rRAA and pRAA. As the column on the far right shows, Mariners pitchers have, by and large, far exceeded their expected value as far as defence/park-independent statistics are concerned. This is hardly a surprise, as the Mariners have the best defence in the game and play in a pitcher-friendly park. The biggest differences are in Sean White and David Aardsma's numbers, who between them 'should' be worth around 15 runs less than their actual numbers would suggest. Again, this isn't a surprise, as the pitchers likely to have the biggest negative difference between pRAA and rRAA are those who've been highly effective by ERA and associated metrics. The opposite should also hold true: the poor performers are likely to have been negatively impacted by their fielders.

In fact, the only relief pitchers who have a lower tRA than RA are Mark Lowe, Brandon Morrow, and Garrett Olson, and only Lowe has been part of the bullpen all season. The numbers are fairly remarkable - by using traditional numbers, the Mariner bullpen has been worth +6.4 runs total, and with pRAA, they've been at a rather alarming -25.9. Miguel Batista is particularly notable for having cost us almost ten runs over the course of the season, but he's had a couple of competitors for the suckiest bullpen arm award, with Jakubauskas and Stark (in ten innings somehow) pushing him all the way. Some (most) of the numbers in the table above has to have come from the defence, as Safeco Field isn't going to explain away the whole thing. But before we look at defensive contributions explicitly, I'd like to introduce the concept of leverage.

Most of you should be familiar with Jeff's lovely win expectancy charts, which appear after nearly every game. The idea of win expectancy is straightforward. For each game state (outs, score, runners, inning) we can figure out the likelihood of an average team beating another average team. Despite most teams not being completely average and entirely constituted of average players, win probability can be used as a measure of how important a given event was in terms of winning or losing baseball games. A walk-off home run? Worth a lot. A two-out walk with the bases loaded in the second when down by five? Not so much. In fact, for each game state, we know what the possible swings in win probability are. A team cannot possibly make a big impact in one at-bat when they're ten runs down, even if the batter hits a grand slam, but with the tying run at third with one out in the ninth, the situation can become critically important.

Table 2: 2009 AL relief leverage by
team, descending

Leverage is a measurement of just how important those situations are. Fortunately, the good people at Fangraphs keep track of this number for both teams and individual players. Here we are concerned with the average leverage a pitcher sees, denoted as pLI (the average is 1.00). In general one might expect bullpens to see higher leverage situations than starting pitchers, but as Table 2 to the left shows, this is not the case for most of the American League, which have seven teams below 1.00 and 12 below 1.10. The standout teams are the Boston Red Sox and the Seattle Mariners, with the latter leading the major leagues in bullpen leverage (the Dodgers and Cubs are also both over 1.20 in average bullpen leverage).

There are a number of reasons why we might see such a disparity in the stressfulness of situations seen by a bullpen. One such reason might be that a team is poor enough that they are regularly losing by large enough amounts to make winning improbably: this might apply to the AL's basement teams: Oakland, Kansas City, and Baltimore. Or the opposite could be true and the team could routinely be so far ahead by the time the manager goes to a reliever that their innings simply aren't worth very much, which is the route taken by the New York Yankees and their absurdly powerful offence.

Conversely, a team which finds its bullpen highly stressed will be in contention to win many games, one that relies on excellent run prevention to keep things close. That would be the Mariners. Their bullpen leverage index of 1.23 means that the runs saved or given up by Mariner relievers are worth 132% of those saved or given up by their counterparts in New York.

The same concept applies to individual pitchers on the same team. By multiplying innings pitched by individual pLI, we can see the relative importance of the innings a pitcher has soaked up, as shown below:

Figure 2: IP*pLI for Mariner relievers in 2009

As we can see, David Aardsma springs into the lead once important innings are considered. The top four of Aardsma/Lowe/White/Batista are now responsible for almost two thirds of leveraged relief innings, and the team total has jumped by more than 100 innings (this is insane, by the way). Aardsma and Lowe are entirely responsible for the team's jump in innings total, with the former experiencing the equivalent of 76 extra innings' worth of stress and the latter a robust +38, due to pLIs of 2.21 and 1.55 respectively. Brandon Morrow's adventures in Minnesota and Texas see him grab more innings, and poor Doug Fister, who made his debut at the end of a blowout game, has his contribution marked as wholly irrelevant and thus discarded.

We need to account for leverage when we look at value metrics like pRAA, and again this is a simple case of multiplication. Numbers multiplied by pLI are denoted with an apostrophe:

Table 3: pLI and leveraged rRAA and pRAA for Mariner relievers in 2009

Aardsma's performance is particularly notable, but apart from the fantastic contribution from our closer, what really stands out is how poorly Miguel Batista has been used. His pLI was just a tick below average, and this season he's been running a tRA of almost six. While his contract demanded that he be on the roster somewhere, the damage he's caused could probably have been mitigated by relegating him to mop-up duty rather than deploying him in relatively close games. Denny Stark and Chris Jakubauskas both saw their negative contributions decreased due to their throwing in less stressful situations, which would have left Batista all alone at the bottom if not for the increased impact of The Adventures of Brandon Morrow. The chart does show you why the Mariner pen is held in high regard by those watching, though. The important innings have gone to White, Aardsma, and Lowe, and by and large they just haven't allowed runs, to the tune of 44 runs saved by rRAA. Let's look at an overall comparison between rRAA, pRAA, and the leveraged numbers:

Table 4: rRAA, pRAA, and leveraged values for Mariner relievers in 2009

As shown in the table above, leveraging the numbers results in an increase in both rRAA' and pRAA'. This should go as a feather in the cap of Don Wakamatsu, as it demonstrates his ability use his bullpen arms (sans Batista) effectively - the most important innings have gone to the most able pitchers. It's really no wonder that those watching games and following closely think that the team has a good bullpen. Naturally, we pay more attention when we're in with a shot at winning, and in those situations, the relief corps just doesn't give up runs. It's hard not to be confident in the later innings when your top arms are that good at shutting the opposition's bats. But again, how much of this is the responsibility of the pitcher? pRAA' agrees that the bullpen is generally far better when the game's on the line, but still has the unit as well below average, and almost three wins less valuable than it would appear when simply looking at runs, which is a similar result to what we saw earlier when looking at unleveraged values.

The defence, then, has to have some responsibility for the perception of the bullpen as an elite unit. How much defensive support has each pitcher received? Is defence clutch in any way (the most likely explanation for this would be sensible use of defensive replacements)? Although you could probably figure things out from the numbers above, we like our graphs around here - the chart below shows the defensive support given to each pitcher per tRA's xRR, which is simply expected runs minus actual runs with park effects accounted for. Both plain xRR and xRR multiplied by pLI are shown.

Figure 3: Defensive support (standard and leveraged) for Mariner relievers in 2009 (click image for full size).

Aardsma and White have been the primary beneficiaries of the defence this season, but it's hard to argue in favour of defensive clutchness: Morrow didn't get much support, and Lowe has been a little better than his traditional line too. In fact, summing leveraged xRR and subtracting plain xRR leaves you with one extra run, which is a little surprising considering the average pLI of 1.23. Overall, the defence hasn't cared who's pitching or what the score is - it's just gone out and made plays no matter the situation. Despite some of it being explained away with leveraged numbers, I have to conclude that the greater part of the difference between 'common knowledge' and a quick statistical peek at our pen's numbers is due to Franklin Gutierrez and company.

All in all, I think it's pretty clear that although the bullpen isn't as good as commonly believed, it hasn't been as bad as simply looking at unleveraged pRAA would suggest, simply because the guys relied on when the games are on the line have been much better than those in mopup duty (surprise!). However, the bullpen has still been below average, and without the safety blanket of the best defence in the game to make them look good, we'd hear less about resilience and esprit de corps and more about fatigue and the need for mechanical tweaks.

If this is Sparta, it's been more Sellasia than Thermopylae.

Thursday's Frosty Mug

KLSnow — Thu, 06 Aug 2009 14:16:16 -0000

More photos » by Gus Ruelas - AP

Ryan Braun, Mike Cameron and Jody Gerut celebrate the Brewers' win over the Dodgers Wednesday.

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Some things to read while working on a poem.

Will Prince Fielder be suspended today? Disciplinary action for Tuesday's incident is expected to be announced today, and I've heard anything from no suspension to ten games suggested. I guess we'll find out. Meanwhile, Ken Macha was on damage control yesterday, attempting to explain to reporters some of the misconceptions involved and make sure people were aware of the root cause.

How much of the blame for overblowing this incident belongs to Anthony Witrado? Despite admitting earlier this season to being a Dodger fan and a Manny Ramirez fan, plus the fact that he wasn't actually present to witness what happened, Witrado appeared on SportsCenter yesterday and buried both Fielder and the Brewer organization. Brewers Daily, who has had some personal interaction with Witrado in the past, is calling for his firing. It's a shame that, in an era where so many hardworking and talented journalists are losing their jobs, Witrado still has one.

Are the Brewers getting ready to swap someone out in the bullpen? Buried at the bottom of Adam McCalvy's story on Carlos Villanueva was this note:

The Brewers are expected to promote newly signed reliever Jesus Colome from Triple-A Nashville as early as Friday. Colome, released by the Nationals last month and scooped up by the Brewers, pitched two more scoreless innings on Tuesday to preserve his perfect ERA. He struck out 11 batters in seven innings over his first four appearances for Nashville.

One would have to assume R.J. Swindle will be the one to depart, again. Swindle will probably be back in September, but might not get another chance to pitch significant innings this season, or as a Brewer.

Another day, another note on the ineptitude of Jason Kendall: This time it comes from The Daily Drink, where Christian Schneider argues that Kendall is no longer a major league player. As of this writing, Kendall is 2-for his last 27 (.080/.140/.080 over that span), and his OPS has dropped to .584.

Is Ryan Braun an underrated defender? He hasn't looked great in the outfield the last few days, but Baseball Digest Daily ranks him as the fifth best NL left fielder, defensively. I think you can make a solid case that he should be playing in right, not left.

In the minors:

Over at The Hardball Times, Jeff takes a look at AAA roster composition across baseball, and finds that the Brewers have one of the youngest squads, with an average age of 26.4.
Baseball America listed Roque Mercedes as an honorable mention in their list of the top ten prospects traded at the deadline.

On Power Rankings and other stuff:

Beyond the Box Score dropped the Brewers two spots to #24 in their Power Rankings.
MLB FanHouse moved the Brewers up one spot to #19.
The Ghost of Moonlight Graham listed the Brewers among their five losers at the trade deadline.

Around baseball:

Astros: Signed reliever Roy Corcoran.
A's: Signed Brett Tomko to a minor league deal.
Cubs: Released relievers B.J. Ryan and Jason Waddell.
Mets: Jonathan Niese will undergo surgery to repair a torn hamstring tendon and miss the rest of the season.
Nationals: Placed Austin Kearns on the DL with a thumb contusion.
Red Sox: Signed Paul Byrd to a minor league deal.
Royals: Designated Ryan Freel for assignment.
Yankees: Designated infielder Cody Ransom for assignment and signed Russ Ortiz to a minor league deal.

I had a couple of Twitter-based links this morning, but Twitter appears to be down so I'll post them here and maybe they'll work later:

With the win last night, Cool Standings has the Brewers' playoff chances back up to 7.7%.
Jon Heyman is on vacation in Wisconsin this week, so if you see him...I don't know, do whatever it is you do when you see Jon Heyman.

Happy birthday today to Luis Vizcaino, who appeared in 224 games as a Brewer between 2002 and 2004 and turns 35 today.

Drink up.

Wednesday's Frosty Mug

KLSnow — Wed, 05 Aug 2009 14:22:52 -0000

More photos » by Gus Ruelas - AP

Ken Macha reacts as Prince Fielder is escorted to first base after being hit by a pitch during the ninth inning Tuesday.

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Some things to read while ~~ogling~~ reevaluating the economy. (h/t Daily Drink)

So the Brewers had a pretty full day yesterday. A day that started with an appearance on the Price is Right (but no Plinko) ended with Prince Fielder trying to force his way into the Dodger clubhouse to confront former teammate Guillermo Mota, who hit him with a pitch under exceptionally questionable circumstances in the ninth inning of a 17-4 game. Craig Calcaterra called it "a scene out of late-80's WCW."

If you missed it (and odds are most of you did), Tristarscoop has a recap of the event and an abnormally heated Ken Macha press conference afterwards. Dodgers catcher Russell Martin probably didn't do Mota or Joe Torre any favors by acknowledging the pitch was intentional after the game, claiming it was retaliation for Chris Smith grazing Manny Ramirez (his 100th career HBP, by the way) earlier in the night.

I got this email from TheJay this morning, related to the incident, which makes a valid point:

Just wanted to note something my dad mentioned that I think has gotten lost in the shuffle. A big deal is being made about how Torre must have ordered the hit since a reliever was warming with two out in the ninth in a 13 run game. At first blush, I thought it was pretty classless, too, but in Torre's defense, Mota had already thrown nearly 40 pitches, more than he had all season, and Troncoso might have been staying loose down there just in case Mota ran out of gas.

With the loss last night, Cool Standings dropped the Brewers' playoff chances to 4.9%, below 5% for the first time all season. They had never dropped below 10% before last week. With that said, Michael Street of Baseball Digest Daily says Hiroki Kuroda, who beat the Brewers last night, is baseball's best Asian starter.

Moving on, the off day tomorrow gives the Brewers an opportunity to skip one spot in the starting rotation this week, and Ken Macha has decided to skip Mike Burns and start Carlos Villanueva on Friday. By the time the Brewers need a fifth starter again, Jeff Suppan may be ready to return. Adam McCalvy reported yesterday that both Suppan and Dave Bush had successful bullpen sessions yesterday. Sounds like Suppan will return directly to the rotation, while Dave Bush will be sent down for a minor league rehab appearance.

There's also good news today for Corey Hart: He's expected to be released from the hospital today, and will likely fly home to Milwaukee.

Here's a silver lining, if you're into silver linings: Andy Seiler has a projected draft order for the 2010 June draft, and the Brewers' recent struggles have moved them up to the 15th spot. Because picks 1-15 cannot be taken away for compensatory reasons, having pick #15 would mean the Brewers would only lose their second round pick if they sign a Type A free agent this offseason.

Jason Kendall, meanwhile, is doing his best to keep the Brewers in the top 15. Dugout Central named Kendall to their NL All-Stink Team, and Brewers Daily credits Kendall with having "that extra something ... hype by the media to make a bad player look like he helps a team."

As young as the Brewers are, they're getting a large chunk of their production from two aging veterans. As Al noted yesterday, there are only four players in all of baseball over age 36 who consistently play the field and have accumulated enough ABs to qualify for the batting title, and the Brewers have two of them: Mike Cameron and Craig Counsell.

The Brewers are one Trevor Hoffman appearance away from witnessing history. As TheJay noted over at Recondite Baseball, Trevor Hoffman's next game finished will be his 803rd, passing Lee Smith for the all time record. To put that in perspective: Since the Brewers began play in 1969, only 31 pitchers in all of baseball have appeared in 803 games. Soon, Hoffman will have finished that many.

In the minors, Jesus Colome continues to build his case for a major league callup. He's only been with the team for a little more than a week, but Colome racked up two more scoreless innings and his second save for Nashville last night, giving him seven scoreless innings in four games as a Sound. Meanwhile, R.J. Swindle got knocked around again last night and has now surrendered 12 earned runs in 6.2 innings as a Brewer.

In another minor note, FanGraphs rated Cole Gillespie, sent to Arizona in the Felipe Lopez deal, as the 24th best prospect among 35 traded at the deadline.

Around baseball:

Cubs: Placed infielder Andres Blanco on the DL with a calf strain.
Indians: Designated reliever Jose Veras for assignment.
Mariners: Designated infielder Chris Woodward for assignment and announced that reliever Roy Corcoran, designated for assignment last week, has elected to become a free agent.

Someone could probably design and market a calendar based on obscure baseball roster rules and the time of year when you need to know them. August's page would be a refresher on waiver trades from former Blue Jays assistant GM Bart Given.

Giants rookie Joe Martinez, who hasn't pitched since being hit in the head by a line drive from Mike Cameron in April, will start for the Giants today against Houston. It's good to see him back on the mound.

On this day in 1994, the Brewers were one-hit by future Brewer Ben McDonald. David Nilsson collected the only Brewer hit off McDonald, who threw 145 pitches in the game.

I wasn't able to find any Brewer birthdays today, but Tommie Aaron, who played for the Milwaukee Braves in 1962, '63 and '65, would have turned 70 today. Also, Menasha, WI native Eric Hinske turns 32.

Drink up.

Monday's Frosty Mug

KLSnow — Mon, 27 Jul 2009 15:08:35 -0000

More photos » by Morry Gash - AP

Jody Gerut drops a ball hit by Martin Prado during the eighth inning Sunday. He had two hits and was the Brewers' MVP at the plate, but this play is what sticks out in my mind.

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Some things to read while your voice comes in handy.

The trade winds could be blowing today, as the Brewers have yet to announce a starter for Tuesday, which happens to be the scheduled start day for Mariners starter Jarrod Washburn. Here's today's trade roundup in bullet points:

Geoff Baker of the Seattle Times thinks a deal may be afoot involving Washburn, reliever Brandon Morrow and Alcides Escobar and J.J. Hardy. (Also noted in FanShot.)
U.S.S. Mariner says not to be surprised if Carlos Villanueva is involved in the deal.
Jonah Keri listed a Washburn/Brewers deal as one of nine trade deadline deals that need to happen.

I'm going to break into the bullet points here for a quick aside. Doug Melvin is normally very tight-lipped about moves he might be making, arguing that press coverage and speculation make it more difficult to get a deal done. Why, then, would the Brewers wait so long to name a starter for tomorrow? Assuming no deal is done, Tim Dillard will almost certainly get the start (although Tom H. says it could be Villanueva), so why not name a starter? If the Brewers somehow manage to make a deal today, Dillard could be scratched in favor of Washburn and no one would be harmed. Something doesn't smell right here.

Ok, here's the other rumor-related stuff:

CBS Sports reported over the weekend that the Brewers are done pursuing Roy Halladay, but Doug Melvin denied it.
Brewer Paradise Lost says the return required to acquire Halladay would turn the 2011 Brewers into the 2001 Brewers.
Two-Fisted Slopper wants the Brewers to hold steady, as do 45% of the 976 voters in our poll from Friday.
Brewed Sports doesn't want the Brewers to trade for any players who will be free agents after the season.

Another ugly loss for the Crew yesterday left them 1-12 in their last 13 day games, 4-12 on Sundays and 11-22 in day games overall. The Brewers are now 7-14 in their last 21 games, and haven't won either a series or back-to-back games since beating the Mets on June 29 and 30. View From Bernie's Chalet doesn't see the 2009 Brewers as a contending team anymore. Yet somehow, the Brewers managed to sell out all three games this weekend.

The entire conversation about tomorrow night's starter almost took a strange turn yesterday, as Tim Dillard was warming up in the bullpen following the first inning of yesterday's game, when Braden Looper was struggling with his command early. Dillard sat back down, though, and Looper bounced back with four solid innings before getting rocked in the sixth.

Dillard was added to the roster when Seth McClung was placed on the DL following Friday's game. He has reportedly undergone an MRI on his strained elbow, but no results have been reported. McClung underwent Tommy John surgery in 2003.

Whether Dillard, Villanueva or someone else makes the start Tuesday, they're likely to get an extended audition: After experiencing a setback in his rehab, Dave Bush will not return until mid-August at the earliest. As the Brewers continue to slide downward in the standings, getting 3-4 starts to take a long at long-term rotation options might not be the worst thing.

Manny Parra struggled over the weekend while pitching to Jason Kendall, after pitching well to Mike Rivera for two straight starts. Over in the FanPosts, Saberilliterate wonders if Kendall really does call a good game, and if he's partially responsible for Parra's struggles.

He's probably not a long-term rotation option, but the Brewers signed Jesus Colome to a minor league deal over the weekend and he debuted last night, striking out three in two scoreless innings for Nashville. With the Brewer bullpen overworked and largely ineffective at present, Colome could probably work his way to the big leagues pretty quickly if he performs well in AAA.

Elsewhere in the minors:

The Brewers signed supplemental pick Kyle Heckathorn over the weekend, agreeing to a $776,000 bonus and inviting him to major league spring training next spring (Also noted in FanShot). The Brewers had to overpay for Heckathorn a bit to convince him not to go back to college, but he sounds excited to get his career started, once he's done buying a new pickup truck.
Alex Periard got a late start to his season after being shut down in spring training, but I had forgotten that he's still pretty far ahead in his development: Project Prospect reports that Periard is the 40th youngest player in AA. Jeremy Jeffress was 27th before being demoted and suspended.
R.J. Seidel, who was expected to miss the entire season after slipping on a patch of ice while jogging over the winter, made his season debut over the weekend and Rattler Radio has a link to a nice story about him.

On Power Rankings and whatnot:

The Hardball Times' Dartboard has the Brewers at #19.
The Brewers actually moved up a spot from 18th to 17th in WhatifSports' Power Rankings.
As of Saturday, Beyond the Box Score had the Brewers' playoff chances at 14%.

Around baseball:

Astros: Designated reliever Chad Paronto for assignment.
Cubs: Placed Ted Lilly on the DL with shoulder inflammation. He'll also undergo arthroscopic knee surgery while he's out.
Indians: Acquired pitcher Jess Todd, the Cardinals' 2008 minor league pitcher of the year, as the PTBNL in the Mark DeRosa trade.
Mariners: Placed Erik Bedard on the DL with shoulder inflammation and designated outfielder Wladimir Balentien and reliever Roy Corcoran for assignment.
Mets: Placed Gary Sheffield on the DL with a hamstring strain.
Phillies: Placed reliever Clay Condrey on the DL with a strained muscle in his side.
Red Sox: Designated Mark Kotsay for assignment.
Reds: Placed reliever Jared Burton on the DL with shortness of breath.
Rockies: Designated reliever Ryan Speier for assignment.
Tigers: Designated outfielder Josh Anderson for assignment.

The Cardinals have made a lot of moves this season, but are they building their team in the Brewers' image? Dave Cameron of FanGraphs noticed a severe lack of left handed bats in the Cardinals lineup, and wonders if they'll suffer the same downfall the 2008 Brewers did in the playoffs.

It's a little late to be adding promotions, but tomorrow could be "Surgical Mask" day in Arlington, as Vicente Padilla, who is suffering from swine flu, is still expected to make his scheduled start.

What do you do with a slick fielding shortstop who can't hit .100 in the big leagues? The Royals are going to try to teach Tony Pena Jr. to pitch. I guess they're not out much if the experiment fails.

Here's a cool promotion idea: For $75, the Astros are allowing fans to stand on the field and take pictures while the team takes batting practice. The promotion is available for any home night game. At that price, I think there would be more than a few Brewer fans interested.

On this day in Brewer history: Tommy Harper went 3-for-9 with a double and a home run but it was not enough as the Red Sox defeated the Seattle Pilots 5-3 in 20 innings. Ten years later, Cecil Cooper hit three home runs, including a walkoff shot to lead the Crew to a 6-5 victory over the Yankees.

Oh, and I wasn't able to find any Brewer birthdays, today, but happy belated birthday to Mat Gamel, who turned 24 yesterday.

Drink up.

First Half In Review: Passing Out The Grades (Pitching Staff)

Jeff — Wed, 15 Jul 2009 21:10:25 -0000

Part two of a two-part series. Awwww yeahhhh

-----

David Aardsma: A-. Aarsdma's been quite a find, helping to somewhat stabilize a bullpen that was sent into disarray by Brandon Morrow. The strikeouts are way up, and he's only had a couple meltdowns through three months. My only concern is that he allows a ton of fly balls, many of them deep. He's definitely benefited from a big park and an awesome defense. He hasn't pitched as well as his ERA.

Miguel Batista: D. It's interesting to me that people don't realize how bad he still is. That 2008 must've left quite the impression.

Erik Bedard: B. Pitched well a lot of the time he was on the mound, but he didn't spent enough time on the mound, and there's not much consistency start-to-start. While it's great that his shoulder MRI came up clean, in some ways mysterious discomfort is worse than the stuff you can explain. I feel about Erik the way aviophobes feel about an overseas vacation.

Felix Hernandez: A. Felix may be a 23 year old All Star with a million-dollar contract and a billion-dollar arm, but I bet he doesn't have an emergency survival blanket in his pocket. You may think you're some kind of hotshot, but come wintertime, we'll see which one of us gets to enjoy complete thermal protection from rain and snow.

Chris Jakubauskas: D+. A few months ago I mentioned how much I liked Jakubauskas' curveball. Recently Harry Pavlidis did some work at Beyond The Box Score showing that Jakubauskas' curve has the lowest swinging strike rate of any curve in the Majors. I will never understand why anyone takes me seriously anymore.

Shawn Kelley: C. Kelley generally did good work on the mound, but he missed a lot of time and his most recent appearances show that he's still not all the way right. I both love Shawn Kelley and wish that he weren't probably the second-most dependable arm in the bullpen.

Mark Lowe: C. Too many balls and far too much contact for a guy with his stuff. USE YOUR CHANGEUP IT WILL HELP YOU AGAINST THOSE SINISTER LEFTIES

Brandon Morrow: C-. The best pitching prospect in our system has 127 games of Major League experience.

Garrett Olson: D+. I like having Olson around, and he has a little decent upside as a 4/5 starter, but his stuff gives him so little margin for error that it's basically impossible for me to feel comfortable in any situation where he's on the mound. I think that's the biggest reason why his bases loaded Houdini act the other day was so incredible. He doesn't miss many bats and he too often struggles to find the strike zone. Hurry up, RRS. And don't take this the wrong way, but you should hurry up too, Brandon.

Carlos Silva: F. Every day for the past three weeks I've thought about posting "Today's Fun Fact: Carlos Silva is still a Mariner" but I couldn't bring myself to do it, so now I'm doing it here. Only $25m left on the books after this season! Silva is living(?) proof that the big league DL system is a farce. Yeah, yeah, he has some wear and tear. That's not why he's sitting. He's sitting because oh my god why why would you ever let him pitch

Jason Vargas: C+. The more I see of him, the more I fall in love with Vargas' changeup. Between that and his ordinary but left-handed breaking ball, he's a starter who's not likely to run a big platoon split. Considering he's not even getting expensive yet, he was one hell of a throw-in, a guy I barely even noticed when we made the trade. I'm worried about how well he'll hold up down the stretch after not throwing in 2008, but to date, he's been quite good for what he is.

Jarrod Washburn: B-. Last year's litmus test of baseball intelligence was Raul Ibanez's defense. This year's is Jarrod Washburn's value as a pitcher. Washburn has taken a step forward - listen to me, everybody, Washburn has taken a step forward - but he's still not very good, and people who want to offer him arbitration or sign him to an extension are pants-on-arms crazy. He's been neat for three months, though. You know what else is neat? This emergency survival blanket. The package says it can be used as a signaling device for air support, and I work right next to Miramar, but for some reason when I took it for a field test the pilots got all uppity.

Sean White: C-. He's last year's Roy Corcoran, only with like 25% less of the only thing that made last year's Roy Corcoran any good. Speaking of percentages, this emergency survival blanket retains 90% of body heat. Great for survival, and great for taking warm pies to a picnic! White probably deserves a D or a D+, but he's flukily avoided home runs, so whatever. I wonder if people back home refer to him as the pride of Pullman. That would suck for Pullman.

Assorted Others: Irrelevant. When Roy Corcoran's on, he covers the ground with his sinker, but nothing covers the ground quite like this emergency survival blanket.

Corcoran off DL, Johnson to the BL.

Matthew — Sat, 13 Jun 2009 20:51:18 -0000

Larry Stone, bring in da news!

The Mariners have activated relief pitcher Roy Corcoran, who has been on the disabled list since April 30 with a strained neck. Corcoran, for now, will take the roster spot of catcher Rob Johnson, who was placed on the bereavement list. No details yet available, except that it's a family emergency.

Righteous.

I hope whatever the emergency is, it resolves itself well. I may vehemently dislike Rob Johnson's current skill level and the praise for his defense, but I do not wish harm upon random other people just because they know Rob Johnson. I bet he's a very nice fellow in fact.

Corcoran hits DL, Vargas Recalled

Matthew — Thu, 30 Apr 2009 23:21:35 -0000

Story Link

Right-handed reliever Roy Corcoran is being placed on the 15-day disabled list with a strained neck. The injury is retroactive to April 29th, meaning he's eligible to come off on May 14.

A strained neck? Well, okay then. We have a lefty now in the pen

Jason Vargas' StatCorner Page

7-3, Game Notes

Jeff — Fri, 17 Apr 2009 06:32:03 -0000

Sometimes it can be difficult to tell where a game turned. Sometimes the turning points are so obvious that they raise their hands and go "ooh ooh! ooh!" and burp the alphabet. Tonight was more the latter than the former. This game wound up feeling like something straight out of 2008, but had it not been for two particular at bats, there's no telling how it would've wound up.

The first at bat you may recognize as Wladimir Balentien vs. Joe Saunders in the bottom of the fourth. At the time, the Mariners were ahead by the slimmest of margins, but had the bases loaded and were threatening to take a sizeable lead. Saunders came in having intentionally walked Jose Lopez and having beaned Russell Branyan, but instead of taking a pitch or making sure that Saunders started him off with a fastball, Wlad chased the first offering, which wound up being a low-away changeup just out of the zone. This put him behind and made him a little nervous, so Wlad chased the next pitch as well, which wound up being pretty much the exact same thing. Behind 0-2, Wlad all of a sudden found himself in a world of hurt. He partially redeemed himself by taking the next three pitches and forcing Saunders into a pickle, but then yet again Wlad bailed him out by swinging at a bad pitch to end the threat.

I don't mean "bad pitch" as in something Saunders shouldn't have thrown - Saunders very clearly knew what he was doing and he played Wlad like a fiddle. I mean "bad pitch" as in a pitch at which Wlad shouldn't have swung. Depending on how you interpret the strike zone, the best-case scenario is that Wlad swung at ball four, while the worst-case scenario is that he didn't see a single strike in six pitches. A lot of people automatically assume that a long at bat is a good at bat, but this was a terrible showing by Wlad, and it threw away a chance for the M's to blow this game open.

The second at bat is Roy Corcan vs. Mike Napoli in the sixth. Here the Angels had the bases loaded and two outs in a game they were trailing 1-0. Corcoran got way ahead with an inside fastball and a miraculous swinging strike, but instead of going with a low-away breaking ball or at least trying to bury a sinker, he threw a belt-high heater over the inner half of the plate that Napoli drilled into center field to plate the decisive two runs. This wasn't a case of good pitching being defeated by better hitting - this was a case of bad pitching being defeated by normal hitting, as pretty much any self-respecting hitter in the big leagues feasts on that pitch. Corcoran is a groundball pitcher. He's a groundball pitcher because he's pretty good about keeping his sinker out of the wheelhouse. He put this one right where Napoli wanted to hit it, and he put it there in an 0-2 count. That's not a good way to hold on to your roster spot.

Two at bats, two significant turning points. Everyone ought to be sick of this word by now, but when you come in with an average of .362 with RISP and an average against of .191 in the same situation, that's what regression looks like. It was just a matter of time before the M's got caught. We've seen the offense get a few too many timely hits and we've seen the bullpen get a few too many timely outs, so we knew this was bound to happen. It's just damn ugly when it does. The hazards of following a team predisposed to close games, I guess. While there are going to be a lot more Tuesdays down the road, there are also going to be a lot more todays.

This is going to be a tense summer of baseball.

The bullpen meltdown and the offense's ineffectiveness are probably going to be the lead stories that come out of this game, but perhaps lost in the mix is that Chris Jakubauskas spun a hell of a starting debut. On a limited pitch count, he was able to last 5.1 innings, and while his opponent wasn't exactly the most ferocious in the league, he pitched well considering what he is. Of his 81 pitches, 60 (!) were strikes, with two of the swinging variety in the first couple innings. He was also able to avoid solid contact.

The breakdown:

62 fastballs (90.6mph)
5 changeups (79.7)
14 curves (77.0)

Jakubauskas was very fastball-oriented, but that's probably about what you'd expect from a guy on a strict limit who's still pretty new to pitching. And honestly, until he started to wear down, his fastball was looking all right. I certainly didn't expect him to be sitting in the low 90s, which he was for much of his start. Maybe the most impressive part of his game, however, was that 10 of his 14 curves went for strikes. That thing has an unholy amount of drop, and if he can gain some steady control over it, then it'll give him a weapon to induce grounders and pop-ups from lefties and righties alike. It's like Morrow's curve if you slowed it down to a velocity range more appropriate for humans.

Chris Jakubauskas wasn't spectacular tonight, and he doesn't have the stuff to ever break into the front of our rotation or anything, but for a Major League starting debut, I thought he was fine, and I'd like to see a little more of him. Maybe our starting depth isn't so pathetic after all. A guy with three pitches who throws as many strikes as Jakubauskas did tonight can't be all bad.

Felix Day tomorrow. It'd be nice to end this losing streak before it gets overwhelming. It feels like ages since we've won a damn game.

The Five Biggest Subplots Of Spring Training

Jeff — Thu, 05 Mar 2009 23:43:18 -0000

The news needs to report news. Even when there is no news to report. That's how we end up with ST articles about Ryan Feierabend's kid or Bryan LaHair's laughable bid for a job. Let me help you sort through all the fluff so you can focus on the most important things to which you should pay attention over the next several weeks.

The closer race. It's been talked about at some length both here and at USSM, but as of now, the Mariners haven't yet settled on a designated closer. The list of candidates includes Mark Lowe, Miguel Batista, Roy Corcoran, and - depending on who you ask - David Aardsma, Randy Messenger, and Tyler Walker. Nobody stands out right now, as pretty much all of them have had their good games and bad ones, but Lowe, Aardsma, and Walker have the best pure stuff. This is going to be an interesting race; barring surprise, Lowe's my preferred choice, and probably the team's, as well, but in this kind of competition it doesn't take much for a guy to fall out of favor. And these guys know it, too. There's probably a lot more intensity and focus in the bullpen than there usually is this time of year.

Erik Bedard's progress. Okay, so this one won't be that easy to follow, given the pointlessness of Spring Training statistics and all, but it's important for the team to have him throwing at full strength and being able to spot his fastball and curve. It'll take a lot of work for Erik to put last season behind him, but remember, it was just a year ago that he was arguably the best starting pitcher in baseball. That talent is still in there somewhere. If he's able to build up his arm strength and stay healthy, then he'll be in line for a considerable rebound, a rebound that could conceivably put us in the blessed position of having two #1's. Whether the team's looking to run to the playoffs or acquire prospects at the deadline, Bedard's well-being will be a big deal.

Shortstop. When the Mariners traded for Ronny Cedeno and said they planned on using him to push Yuniesky Betancourt, a lot of fans rolled their eyes, having heard this kind of tune before. This time, though, it's not all talk. Granted, Yuni is the projected starter, but the Mariners have told Cedeno that he's in the running to start, and if Yuni has a rough go of it this month, then he could be shit outta luck. The new front office doesn't hold him in the highest regard. Rumor has it that Yuni shed some weight over the winter, but if that offseason dedication doesn't translate into better agility and focus on the field, then we might really see a changing of the guard. This isn't exactly a Lopez/Vina sort of thing. This is a legitimate threat. It doesn't help that Yuni already had to miss a bunch of time with a bad hamstring.

Griffey's legs. Before committing to any plan for where Griffey is going to play, the Mariners have said on multiple occasions that they want to see how his body holds up to the rigors of playing the outfield. How he fares is going to have a significant impact on the outlook of the roster. If his legs give him a little trouble, then he'll serve as the regular DH, with both Chavez and Balentien getting time in LF, which is better for the team. If his legs hold up, though, then he'll presumably get a lot more time in left, which makes the team worse at two positions. I suppose this is both a test of Griffey and a test of Wakamatsu, because even if Griffey makes his case for playing the field, it's the manager who has the ultimate say in where to fit him in. I guess what we should be hoping for is that Griffey's knees are too bad for him to play the field, but good enough to let him hit without being a cripple. That way we don't have to worry about the possibility of a rookie manager caving to a beloved veteran.

Griffey's influence. I haven't spent that much time talking about all the alleged clubhouse issues from last year, because I didn't want to contribute to what I believe to have been an overblown story, but the fact of the matter is that a lot of players on this team really do not like Ichiro very much. And no matter what you think about the impact of clubhouse chemistry, a lot of players having a problem with your biggest star can't possibly be good. So with that in mind, it's going to be interesting to see how Griffey changes the dynamic, if at all. For one thing, we know that Ichiro's a big fan of his, so that might be one way to unify the clubhouse. And for another, while a lot of people see Ichiro as a primadonna, Griffey puts him to shame in that regard, so having another high-profile celebrity with even more grating tendencies might put things in perspective. Either by showing that you can be a primadonna and a contributing teammate at the same time, or by showing that being a star who doesn't lead isn't a quality unique to Ichiro. This is the first time a Mariner clubhouse has ever been shared by Ichiro and another international icon. Shifting some focus over to the new guy instead of heaping it all on the incumbent could work wonders.

Picked Off: Spring Training Boxscores 2/28/2009

faketeams — Sun, 01 Mar 2009 14:00:12 -0000

1B Kevin Millar, Toronto Blue Jays: He hit clean-up and played 1B. I fully expect Millar to get 300+ ABs this season. The only question is who is going to lose them. 1B Lyle Overbay? OF/DHs Travis Snider and Adam Lind?

SP Brian Matusz, Baltimore Orioles: Last year's 4th overall draft pick threw an inning and two thirds against what looks like the Florida Marlins regular line-up. He struck out three and allowed no runs. The Orioles are a lot closer to surpassing the Toronto Blue Jays than a quick glance at their expected Opening Day rotation would lead anyone to believe.

OF Brandon Moss, Pittsburgh Pirates: Following off-season knee surgery, one did not know if he'd be ready for Opening Day. Instead, he has played in three Spring Training games, and March has not yet arrived. Keep an eye on him in NL-Only or deep mixed leagues. In 236 ABs, he had 26 extra base hits.

OF Denard Span, Minnesota Twins: He went 0-4, but, more importantly, he was taking pitches at the top of the order. I feel a little more comfortable that last season's .397 OBP is reliable.

SP Joba Chamberlain, New York Yankees: In the first game started by one of the expected rotation members, Chamberlain was up in the zone against the six batters he faced. He was hit hard, too. Maybe that had something to do with the 88 MPH being reported on the YES gun.

SP Carl Pavano, Cleveland Indians: The one dubbed "American Idle" by George King of the NY Post (and relentlessly referred to as such to the point of recollection of junior high) threw two shutout innings. However, he struck out nobody. Even if healthy, remember Pavano was no better than a 6.0 K/9 starter.

RP Roy Corcoran, Seattle Mariners: Call me crazy, but I watch the 5th inning reliever in the first week of Spring Training to get an idea of who is closing. Corcoran threw that inning after Miguel Batista threw two shutout innings following the two frame start of Carlos Silva.

P James McDonald, Los Angeles Dodgers: The other September call-up to dazzle in last season's play-offs threw two shutout innings and k'ed three. Of course, the line-up he faced was much closer to the starting line-up of the Colorado Springs Rockies rather than the Colorado Rockies.