SB Nation - Lindsay Gulin

The Brewers' Rule 5 Draft Eligible Players

TheJay — Tue, 17 Nov 2009 19:15:08 -0000

As noted in my FanPost of Sunday night, the deadline for filing major league and minor league reserve lists is fast approaching. Eligible players not added to the major league 40-man roster by November 20 can be selected in the Rule 5 draft.

What does it take to be eligible?

If 19 or older on the June 5th before he signed his first contract, a player is eligible for the fourth Rule 5 draft after signing (usually after four years in the minors).
If 18 or younger on the June 5th before he signed his first contract, a player is eligible for the fifth Rule 5 draft after signing (usually after five years in the minors).
Any player who is eligible for one Rule 5 draft is eligible for all subsequent Rule 5 drafts.

(see ESPN Transactions Primer , Baseball America Rule 5 Draft column, MLB Rules summaries)

You may recall some Brewers being added to the 40-man roster last offseason to protect them from the Rule 5 draft. Omar Aguilar, Alexandre Periard, Mark Rogers, and Cody Scarpetta were the fantastic four. At the risk of undermining the above statements, Scarpetta actually became eligible for the draft through a little-known technicality: the Brewers voided his original contract because of an injury and later re-signed him, making him immediately eligible (link). That comes up probably once in a February blue moon.

I have attempted to make a comprehensive list of Brewers farmhands who are eligible for the Rule 5 draft. Obviously not all (or even most) of these players are realistic candidates to be selected. In addition, some of these guys may be minor league free agents. If you think I've made a mistake or missed someone, post a comment. Notable names are above the jump while you must click and scroll for the rest. Ages listed are for the 2010 season and levels listed are where the player spent the bulk of 2009:

Zach Braddock (22, LHP, A+/AA - one of the last draft-and-follow players, he did not sign until the spring of 2006 at the age of 18. This gives him one more year before becoming eligible.)
Lorenzo Cain (24, CF, AA)
Chris Cody (26, LHP, AA/AAA)
Nick Green (25, RHP, AA/AAA)
Taylor Green (23, 3B, AA - another draft-and-follow guy, brewerfan has him signing June 1, 2006. Since he did not turn 19 until November 2005, I think that puts him in the 18 and younger category and means he is not eligible until next offseason. Lorenzo Cain was in a similar situation last year.)
Dave Johnson (27, RHP, AAA)
Mike Jones (27, RHP, A+/AA/AAA - former #1 pick finally reached AAA, did not do well)
Brendan Katin (27, RF, AAA)
Mike Ramlow (24, LHP, Inj/A - yet another draft-and-follow, injured most of this season)
Amaury Rivas (24, RHP, A+)

The Brewers currently have 33 of 40 roster spots filled. I am not 100% sure of Green's exemption from the draft but the Brewers certainly have roster room if I'm wrong. We'll all find out together on Friday. Assuming Green does not need to be protected, I think only Lorenzo Cain and Amaury Rivas really need to be added to the roster. I don't think the other guys are tempting enough for any team to commit a 25-man roster spot in December. Correct me if I'm wrong, but the current talent and/or upside just aren't there.

As promised, the rest of the Rule 5 eligible farmhands.

Erick Almonte (32 in 2010, 1B, spent 2009 in AAA)
Patrick Arlis (29, C, AAA)
Mike Burns (31, RHP, AAA/MLB)
Chuck Caufield (26, LF/RF, AA)
Anderson de la Rosa (25, C, A+)
Ryan Delaughter (23, RHP, R - converted outfielder threw 5 innings in Arizona rookie ball.)
Chris Errecart (25, 1B, A+)
Jim Henderson (27, RHP, A/A+ - Canadian added veteran presence to low-minors bullpens.)
Robert Hinton (25, RHP, AA)
Mark Holliman (26, RHP, AA)
JR Hopf (27, C, AA)
Shane Justis (27, 2B, AA - was selected in minor league portion of last year's Rule 5 draft.)
Brandon Kintzler (25, RHP, AA - not sure how it works for these indy-league guys. Not sure it matters.)
Brock Kjeldgaard (24, 1B, A - converted pitcher known for power, strikeouts.)
Joe Koshansky (28, 1B, AAA)
Rafael Lluberes (25, LHP, A+)
Martin Maldonado (23, C, A+)
Michael McClendon (25, RHP, AA)
Sean McCraw (24, C, A)
Johnny Raburn (31, 2B/SS, AA/AAA)
Tike Redman (33, OF, AAA - former Pirate spent about as much time in Nashville as Jon Knott.)
Jose Romero (24, LHP, R - injury-marred career, presumably.)
Ivan Rusova (23, RHP, R - who? The Giants somehow drafted this Cuban in the in 26th round in 2005.)
Juan Sandoval (29, RHP, AA)
Adam Stern (30, OF, AA - O Canada!)
David Welch (27, LHP, AA - the lone representative from Australia.)

The following players would have been Rule 5 eligible but are already minor league free agents according to Brewerfan. A few names from the above list (i.e., Redman) probably belong down here, too:

Drew Anderson (29, LF, AA - he actually spent September 2006 in the majors.)
Chris Capuano (31, LHP, Inj/R)
Carlos Corporan (26, C, AAA - hitting only 1.000 in major league play.)
Ruben Flores (26, RHP, A - acquired for Bill Hall.)
Lindsay Gulin (33, LHP, AAA)
Ryan Houston (30, RHP, AAA)
Jon Knott (31, RF, AAA - spent about two weeks in a Nashville uniform.)
Wes Littleton (27, RHP, AA/AAA - best known for "saving" a 27-run game with the Rangers.)
Kevin Melillo (28, 1B/3B, AA)
Sam Narron (28, LHP, AAA)
Freddy Parejo (25, RF, AA)
Josh Wahpepah (25, RHP, AA)
Chase Wright (27, RHP, AAA - outrighted off 40-man roster on August 26.)

That's a lot of links about a bunch of guys no one will remember a few weeks from now. :)

Monday's Frosty Mug

KLSnow — Mon, 02 Nov 2009 14:57:28 -0000

More photos » by Pat Sullivan - AP

J.J. Hardy will most likely be traded this offseason, but no matter what Buster Olney says, he's almost certainly not going to be non-tendered.

Browse more photos »

Some things to read while getting new cufflinks.

So, with the World Series possibly one day away from being over, we're quickly closing in on hot stove season. Let's start today's rumor roundup with J.J. Hardy. Buster Olney thinks the Brewers could non-tender Hardy, but Al and I both agree that the concept is sheer lunacy. The logic behind it (as cited on MLB Trade Rumors) is beyond flawed:

Olney writes that the Red Sox inquired about Hardy at the deadline, but balked when the Brewers asked for excellent prospects in return. Olney wonders if this is a sign of things to come, and if no market for Hardy develops, would the Brewers be better off non-tendering the former All-Star?

So let me get this straight: The Brewers turned down an offer from the Red Sox because it wasn't enough. If nothing else develops, instead of returning to the Red Sox and asking for the same offer, Olney thinks the Brewers could let Hardy walk for free? On what planet does that make sense?

Roguejim also has a look at Hardy's trade value, and MLB Trade Rumors has a look at other shortstops that could be available via trade.

Elsewhere on the (hypothetical) market, we have Mat Gamel. MLB Trade Rumors has him listed among third basemen who could be on the move this offseason. The Nashville Sounds' website has an article from Baseball America with Gamel's reaction to a tough season offensively.

Until Jarrod Washburn either becomes a Brewer or signs somewhere else, his name is most likely going to keep coming up. Keep Turning Up the Heat! has a look at Washburn's recent performance and would accept a one year deal for him, but also notes that the 2010 Brewers are probably in trouble if Washburn is their biggest acquisition.

Meanwhile, Mike Cameron's name continues to come up in connection to other teams: The Cub Reporter has a look at Cameron as a potential fit in Wrigley in 2010, but doesn't think the two sides are a match.

As they suggested they would, the Brewers have found another job in the organization for former interim pitching coach Chris Bosio. He'll serve as the team's advance scout next season (FanShot).

Jonathan Lucroy is off to a hot start in the AFL, as he hit his second home run on Friday. Tom H. also got a positive review from a scout who recently saw Lucroy play for Peoria. Lucroy is probably a candidate to represent the Brewers when rosters are announced later today for the Rising Stars Game, which will be played on Saturday and broadcast live on MLB Network.

For more on Lucroy, the rest of the Brewers in the AFL and Alcides Escobar's season debut weekend in Venezuela, be sure to check out today's Fall/Winter League Update.

Elsewhere in the minors, I may have committed a Twitter foul. Yesterday afternoon I made a joke about the somewhat unexciting nature of Eric Arnett's recent Twitter activity, and today his account has been removed. Hopefully I'm not responsible for that. Meanwhile, Seth McClung has a picture of his daughter's Halloween costume.

Yet again, we have less-than-encouraging news about the depth of prospects in the Brewer organization, at least defensively: Alex Pedicini of The Hardball Times has the top four minor leaguers at each position, ranked by Total Zone, and there's not a single Brewer prospect among the 28 players listed.

Around baseball:

Astros: Declined their option for 2010 on Doug Brocail, and re-signed Geoff Blum to a one year deal worth $1.5 million.
Giants: Re-signed Freddy Sanchez to a two year deal worth $12 million, and declined their 2010 option on Noah Lowry. They also removed pitchers Justin Miller and Kelvin Pichardo from the 40-man roster. Miller is expected to become a free agent.
Indians: Removed pitchers Mike Gosling and Scott Lewis and infielder Niuman Romero from their 40-man roster.

Did Robin Yount use a corked bat? A game used Robin Yount bat with cork in it is up for auction, leading to discussion regarding the possibility. There's also a strong possibility the bat was corked sometime after it left Yount's possession. I'm reluctant to believe Yount corked the bat, for a simple reason: If Yount knew the bat was corked, he most likely also knew that someone would be able to figure out it had been tampered with. Why, then, would he ever give that bat away? That's like giving your autograph on the back of a steroid prescription.

Could John Maine be a reclamation candidate for Rick Peterson in 2010? Amazin' Avenue suggests he's a candidate to be non-tendered, but concludes the Mets should bring him back.

Baseball Analysts has an interesting look at pitchers' velocity and how it changes as the season goes along, broken down by several demographics. Most of the data isn't exceptionally surprising, but the difference in pitch speed between April and the rest of the season is pretty striking. (h/t Beyond the Box Score)

I'll admit it: I'm having a hard time getting excited for or paying much attention to the World Series. I have yet to sit through an entire game, and I've fallen asleep before the end of both games 3 and 4. Yet somehow, I don't feel as bad now that I know that Jon Heyman caught writers playing Scrabble and solitaire on their computers during Game 3.

Among the five candidates (Lopes, Royster, Yost, Sveum and Macha), I think you can make a solid case that Jerry Royster was easily the worst Brewer manager of the 2000's, even among a pretty bad field of contenders. With that said, his stuff apparently works in Korea, where he has led the Lotte Giants to back-to-back postseason appearances and signed a $600,000 contract extension over the weekend.

If you're hanging around the site tomorrow afternoon, you may notice some minor changes in the site as part of the visual refresh of the SB Nation platform. The changes will be minor, but will also be step one in a project to improve the load time of sites, which should be good news for everyone.

On this day in 1974, the Brewers acquired Hank Aaron from Atlanta for outfielder Dave May and minor league pitcher Roger Alexander. Aaron would go on to hit .232/.326/.360 in his final two seasons as a Brewer, make the 1975 All Star team and hit 22 home runs.

Happy birthday today to:

Taylor Green, 2009 Huntsville Star and current Brewer representative in the Arizona Fall League, who turns 23.
2007-09 Nashville Sound Lindsay Gulin, who turns 33.
Paul Ridgon, who made 27 starts as a 2000-2001 Brewer after coming over from the Indians in the Bob Wickman-Richie Sexson deal, and turns 34.
Paul Hartzell who appeared in four games for the '84 Brewers and turns 56.

Oh, and the Phoenix Desert Dogs ate mac and cheese after Friday's AFL contest. I don't know if they used this recipe.

Drink up.

Things I Would Like To See from the 2009 Brewers

TheJay — Thu, 06 Aug 2009 19:00:10 -0000

The Brewers are still clinging onto the fringe of the postseason race, but there's more than just the standings to watch. It's impossible to tell how two months of a season will play out, but I think every baseball fan has some things he or she wants to see happen. Below is my list. Some of it may seem silly - trust me, it's how I intend it to be.

We'll start off a with a serious one, because it's on the front page. Gravitas and all.

1. Prince Fielder win the RBI title. Albert Pujols currently leads the league in RBI, but Prince is hot on his heels and third place isn't even close. With rumblings about intentionally walking Pujols starting to get louder, it's possible his RBI numbers could slow down over the last two months. If Prince keeps hitting the way he has all season, he could sneak in and win the crown. At the very least, he has a very good chance at breaking Cecil Cooper's franchise record of 126 RBI, set in 1983.

Follow the jump for the rest of the list.

2. Let Casey McGehee catch a game, or even an inning. Yes, I know he's not good enough behind the plate to be a starting catcher. There's a reason he was moved to third base soon after beginning his minor league career. That said, one does get sick of watching the same catcher and same backup every day and, heck, it's not like he'd be lost back there. Maybe a few years down the line someone will look at his career statistics and think, whoa, he caught?! Hey, it happens with Carlos Delgado. Let Casey catch!

3. Let Prince Fielder play every inning at first base. Through 107 games, Prince Fielder hasn't missed so much as an inning in the field, an impressive feat given interleague play and the fact the "future DH" tag is applied to him liberally. Richie Sexson did it in 2003, the first time it happened in the majors since Travis Fryman did it in the shortened 1995 season. The only other Brewers player to come close was Robin Yount, who fell four innings short in 1976. But, if he has to miss a day somewhere down the line, then I hope the next item on the list happens...

4. Play Bill Hall at every position in one game. Billy has now played every position outside of first base, catcher, and pitcher in his major league career. If the team is out of it during the final homestand, why not let Hall do his best Bert Campaneris impression? I think it would be an entertaining way to close out the year. That said, I could see Bill not agreeing to go along with it, as it really is just a stunt, and one that could be construed of making fun of jerking him around the diamond for years.

5. Give Lindsay Gulin a start in the majors. Yes, he doesn't really deserve it based on his pitching so far this year and yes, there's not much point in bumping someone off the 40-man roster for a feel-good story and yes, the "real" starting rotation should be back to "normal" soon. Good teams just don't do this stuff. But hey, Why Not? There's already one independent league veteran on the squad, might as well make it two. But if you don't want to go that far, you can always...

6. Give Chris Cody a start in the majors. So he hasn't been as good in AAA as he was in AA. So he's 25 and came into the year as basically a non-prospect. So his nickname could be Pianist Wrestler. So what? He's done better than other Brewers minor league starters.

7. Let Chris Smith pitch with a lead. After saving 12 games in 21 appearances in AAA, the Brewers' version of Generic RHP has been banished to mopup work in the majors. As such, the team is 1-21 in his appearances. The only victory was the Brewers' wild comeback victory over the Giants on June 27. He would have been in line for the win had Trevor Hoffman not blown the save in the top of the inning. Of his 22 appearances, he has only entered one with even so much as a tie. Throw the kid a bone and let him try and get a hold.

8. Finally, let RJ Swindle try and banish the AAAA tag. Swindle hasn't pitched a game in the majors this year without allowing a run. He only made one scoreless appearance last year. But he's been dominant in AAA, with a 1.43 ERA in 59 games and 92 strikeouts in 82 innings. There's not much more he can do at AAA. So let him make a run at Benj Sampson's record 14 straight relief appearances allowing a run. Maybe he'll kick it in gear along the way.

So what would you like to see the Brewers do this year?

Tuesday's Frosty Mug

KLSnow — Tue, 31 Mar 2009 14:04:52 -0000

Some things to read while leaving work early.

So, as you've probably noticed, 2009 is scheduled to be Rickie Weeks' third consecutive "breakout year." But would you take that news more seriously if it came from Peter Gammons? (h/t FanPost)

While most of the Brewer team projections this spring haven't been pretty, individual Brewers are getting positive attention all over the place today. On top of Gammons' mention of Rickie Weeks, Ken Rosenthal is picking Yovani Gallardo to win the NL Cy Young and But The Game Is On is listing Ryan Braun as an NL MVP candidate.

Speaking of Braun, it sounds like he's feeling pretty good after a couple of days back in big league camp and should be full speed for Opening Day.

The news is not as good for Craig Counsell, who has a torn meniscus in his right knee and may require surgery. He's considering trying to play through it this season, and the team is leaving it up to him. With that said, recovery from surgery would only take 2-3 weeks, so Counsell would be somewhat foolish to spend all season playing in pain to avoid missing the 6-8 appearances he'd miss recovering from surgery.

Trevor Hoffman's injury isn't very exciting for most people, but his rehab could be a pretty big deal for some, as Hoffman may make one or more rehab appearances for the Wisconsin Timber Rattlers. That would be one way to get the teams' new partnership started off on the right foot.

Elsewhere in the minors:

Vinny Rottino and Hernan Iribarren will return to Nashville for the 2009 season, but it doesn't sound like there's much room for them to play. (h/t FanShot)
Beyond The Box Score took a look at the TotalZone rankings of several shortstop prospects. Alcides Escobar has a five run lead on second place, and a 71 run lead on Mariner prospect Carlos Triunfel.
The JS Camp Report says Angel Salome should be recovered from his back injury in time to start the season at Nashville, and Jonathan Lucroy is expected to catch nearly every day in Huntsville.
Tom H. says Chase Wright, Nick Green, Sam Narron, Lindsay Gulin and Tim Dillard will start the season in the rotation in Nashville, with Chris Narveson pitching out of the bullpen. It remains to be seen what will happen when Chris Capuano is ready to start making starts.

Remember when the Brewers were an AL team? I'm sure Moose Haas, Chris Bosio, Bill Wegman and Teddy Higuera do, as they're all on Recondite Baseball's list of pitchers who started the most games without an official at bat.

Rankings/Projections/Predictions:

Nick and Nick's Twins Blog predicts the Brewers will finish third in the Central.
The Tenth Inning Stretch has the Brewers winning 75 games and finishing fourth behind, among others, the 86 win Pirates.
Baseball Musings ranks the Brewers fourth in the Central in Wins Above Replacement.
It Is About The Money, Stupid has Bodoglife's 2009 over-unders, which have the Brewers at 80.5 wins. Stop by later today for more over-under fun.
The Mudpuddle has the Brewers picked to finish fourth in the Central and the Cubs winning the World Series.

he will not make the team

unveiled their dollar menu

BoDogLife

So how much of this can we blame on Arizona?

KLSnow — Fri, 27 Mar 2009 17:00:08 -0000

Before I get to my point, let me acknowledge that balls have been flying out of ballparks for the last week in Arizona. Since the beginning of play Sunday, thirty Cactus League games have been played, with the average score being 9-5.5. Teams are scoring 7.26 runs per game in Arizona this week, and 16 of 60 possible teams have scored ten runs or more in a game, including four teams that scored ten or more runs and lost.

With that said, Brewer pitching has left a fair amount to be desired this spring, and I'm wondering if you're concerned. The fourteen pitchers remaining in Brewer camp have posted an ERA of 5.20 in 163 spring innings. That number jumps to 5.34 if you eliminate the 11 innings pitched by Lindsay Gulin, who is unlikely to make the team. Let's take a look at some of the highlights and lowlights of Brewer pitching performances in the Cactus League:

THE GOOD:

Mitch Stetter
Spring line: 10 G, 11.2 IP, 2.31 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, 3 BB, 10 K

For a guy who projects to face almost nothing but lefties during the regular season, Stetter has been retiring everyone he's faced this spring, and he's throwing strikes, which was his biggest problem last season.

Dave Bush
Spring line: 6 G, 5 GS, 20 IP, 2.70 ERA, 0.90 WHIP, 4 BB, 7 K

Even before his start tonight, Bush leads the Brewers in spring innings and has been very effective, picking up two spring wins and only allowing eighteen baserunners in twenty frames.

Todd Coffey
Spring line: 7 G, 10 IP, 2.70 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 1 BB, 12 K

On and off the field, Coffey's month of March might be the best of any Brewer. Off the field, he became a father for the second time, and on the field he has taken the opportunity to prove he belongs in the Brewer bullpen, and the 12:1 K/BB ratio he posted is hard to beat.

THE BAD

David Riske
Spring line: 6 G, 6.1 IP, 9.95 ERA, 2.37 WHIP, 2 BB, 1 K

Riske is recovering from offseason elbow surgery, but he doesn't look ready to face batters in the regular season. Riske has allowed an earned run in each of his six spring appearances, and his ERA of nearly 10 doesn't reflect the three inherited runners he allowed to score on a bases-loaded double in his last appearance.

Seth McClung
Spring line: 4 G, 2 GS, 14 IP, 7.71 ERA, 1.86 WHIP, 11 BB, 8 K

McClung pitched five innings in relief and Ken Macha was happy with his performance yesterday, but he's still walking a lot of batters this spring, including two walks against the end of the Rangers' bench in the ninth inning yesterday. Depending on the progress of Braden Looper and Trevor Hoffman, McClung could open the season in the starting rotation or as a closer, but hasn't pitched very well in either role this spring.

Carlos Villanueva
Spring line: 8 G, 12.1 IP, 7.32 ERA, 1.63 WHIP, 3 BB, 9 K

Villanueva pitched a perfect inning yesterday, and was the only Brewer pitcher to escape without allowing an earned run. After his previous outing, though, a well-respected baseball analyst in attendance sent me this email:

Saw him today ... what am I missing here? K rates are always good but the stuff was meh.

Carlos could have earned himself a spot as Trevor Hoffman's backup and setup man with a string spring, but instead he's left himself on uncertain footing.

With the exception of Trevor Hoffman and Braden Looper (five combined innings) and Lindsay Gulin, the five other pitchers remaining in camp, including Jeff Suppan, Yovani Gallardo and Manny Parra, have all posted ERAs between 5.06 and 6.30.

So, can we blame this on pitching in Arizona, or is it a cause for concern?

Poll

What's your opinion on Brewer pitching performances in spring training?

Everyone is hitting in Arizona this spring. They'll be fine once the season starts.

30 votes

There are a few pitchers I'm worried about, but for the most part I feel pretty good.

133 votes

I'm moderately concerned.

123 votes

I'm very concerned.

56 votes

342 votes | Poll has closed

Tuesday's Frosty Mug

KLSnow — Tue, 17 Mar 2009 14:06:39 -0000

Some things to read while turning a wine bottle into a terrarium.

Before the Brewers/Cubs game yesterday, Braden Looper pitched a simulated game and completed two innings despite being struck in the head by a line drive. (h/t FanShot) Looper is still on pace to be ready for Opening Day and could start a Cactus League game as soon as this weekend.

Mike Rivera is also ready for game action, and will get the start Wednesday when the Brewers travel to Tucson to take on the Rockies.

The sore intercostal muscle that pulled Ryan Braun out of Sunday's WBC game is still not believed to be serious, but Braun will undergo an MRI anyway, just to be sure.

Elsewhere, the Brewers sent a couple more pitchers down to minor league camp yesterday: R.J. Swindle and Chase Wright. It's a bit of a surprise move, as Swindle was expected to compete for the LOOGY spot in the bullpen and Wright had pitched well in camp. It's possible this means Lindsay Gulin is now in the running for that spot.

Some visual evidence of yesterday's game:

Bill Hall tells Corey Hart to talk to the hand.
Ken Macha congratulates Hart following his home run.
Prince Fielder with a headfirst slide into third.
Rickie Weeks has an impressive vertical leap...but not the baseball.

Speaking of Rickie Weeks, Miller Park Drunk has come to his defense following Rob Neyer and Bill James' assessment that the Brewers should shuffle their defensive lineup and move him out of the infield.

Cory Provus has a blog over at the Sports Bubbler. Today, in his first post, he discusses Corey Hart, Chris Duffy and Casey McGehee. Tomorrow: Brewers with first names starting with a different letter.

Speaking of McGehee, he's the subject of today's JS Spring Training profile.

On predictions, projections, etc:

Walkoff Walk is picking the Brewers to finish fourth in the Central, but predicting a monster season for Manny Parra.
Bleed Cubbie Blue predicts the Brewers will finish with a win total somewhere in the mid-80's, but finish second in the Central and miss the playoffs.
Baseball Reflections has the Brewers winning 80-85 games and finishing no better than second.

Stories from other camps:

Astros: Signed Ivan Rodriguez to a one year, $1.5 million deal. They also may open the season with Jose Capellan in the rotation.
Marlins: Returned Rule 5 pick Zach Kroenke to the Yankees.
Mets: Will return Rule 5 pick Rocky Cherry to the Orioles. They also signed Junior Spivey to a minor league deal.

So, let's say you're managing the Atlanta Braves. You missed out on trading for Jake Peavy this winter and signed Derek Lowe instead. I understand you'd try to justify it, but do you really want to do it by citing six starts in the postseason and World Baseball Classic? There's roughly 112 issues with that analysis.

Speaking of the WBC, as injuries continue to decimate Team USA, there's an increasing chance manager Davey Johnson will forfeit the WBC. If that happens this may very well be the last World Baseball Classic, which would be a shame because it sounds like Cuban press conferences are hilarious.

Aside from being former Brewers, what do Kevin Barker, Mark Loretta and Russell Branyan all have in common? They're three of just seven players to receive an intentional walk during spring training.

Baseball Musings continues to project team offense for 2009. Today, the Astros check in at 4.46 runs per game, up from 4.42 last season.

Last week I posted a graph from Beyond the Box Score showing run expectancy by pitch location. The Baseball Analysts have taken it a step further and broken down run expectancy by location and pitch type and have also broken down home runs by pitch location.

You won't see any more all black maple bats in major league baseball this season, but you will see a black dot on existing maple bats. Larry Stone of the Seattle Times explains some of baseball's rule changes regarding bats.

Meanwhile, across town, The Seattle Post-Intelligencer is folding, effective immediately.

Oh, and no matter how bad the economy gets, you really shouldn't take a job with Lenny Dykstra.

Drink up.

Handicapping the next set of cuts

KLSnow — Sat, 14 Mar 2009 13:00:11 -0000

The Brewers are likely close to the point where they need to trim down camp a bit. With starting pitchers getting stretched out and regular position players getting more time, there's just not as many innings and at bats to go around as there used to be, meaning a few of the less-likely candidates to open the season on the roster will probably be making the journey over to minor league camp in the next few days. Here are my odds for the candidates:

Chris Narveson - 1:1

Narveson has made three appearances in camp, but was lit up in his last one, giving up five runs (four earned) in two innings, including two home runs. All told, Narveson's upside just isn't that high and he's likely ticketed for a spot near the bottom of the rotation in Nashville.

Sam Narron - 3:2

Narron has yet to allow a run in camp, scoreless over five innings. But he's walked four and given up five hits in those five innings, while striking out just two. Narron is roughly the fifth best left-handed reliever in camp, behind Stetter, Swindle, Chase Wright and Lindsay Gulin.

Lindsay Gulin - 2:1

Gulin gets a slight advantage over Narveson because he hasn't had a bad outing in camp, and over Narron for having a much better K/BB ratio (8:2). Gulin has pitched in three games (five innings), and has allowed just one run on three hits. Gulin is 32 and has pitched 11 minor league seasons. Last year he pitched well in Nashville, and the Brewers may want to send him down so he can start getting stretched out.

Omar Aguilar- 4:1

Possibly the organization's top relief prospect, Aguilar could be a victim of the numbers game in camp, with no less than 17 other pitchers (not counting the three listed above) needing innings. Aguilar has allowed three runs (two earned) on five hits and two walks while striking out five this spring.

Carlos Corporan 8:1

At present, he's one of the few healthy catchers in camp, but with Vinny Rottino back from the WBC and Angel Salome and Mike Rivera getting ready to come back from injuries, by this time next week the Brewers will be back to having five healthy catchers plus Corporan, who is not considered a prospect and has virtually no chance of making the team.

Trot Nixon 10:1

Not that long ago, the Brewers had a shortage of outfielders. Now, when Ryan Braun returns from the WBC and Tony Gwynn makes his debut, the Brewers will have Braun, Cameron, Hart, Chris Duffy and Brad Nelson, all of whom would appear to be ahead of Nixon in the race to make the team, plus Tony Gwynn and Lorenzo Cain, who both could use some extra time for evaluation purposes.

Wednesday's Frosty Mug

KLSnow — Wed, 25 Feb 2009 15:24:23 -0000

Some things to read while breakdancing your way through an intrasquad game. (second picture)

Good morning and welcome to the first game day of 2009. Jeff Suppan gets the ball today for the Brewers, and will be followed by Dave Bush, Trevor Hoffman, Eddie Morlan, Lindsay Gulin, Nick Green, Todd Coffey and Jorge Julio for one inning each.

For most players, these first few games of spring training are light workouts, with a few innings of defense and an at bat or two. Ryan Braun, however, may play the entire game as part of his accelerated preparations for the World Baseball Classic. As Tom H. noted, Braun may need to play a lot of innings in the WBC, as Team USA only has four outfielders on the roster, and Braun is the only left fielder.

Braun still couldn't get #8, though, despite the fact that no one on Team USA's roster is wearing it. Braun is wearing #51 in the Classic.

Meanwhile, the Brewers made two announcements yesterday regarding 2008 #1 pick Brett Lawrie: He's moving to second base and representing Team Canada in the WBC.

Also, Tyler Maas of Bugs & Cranks, who normally covers the Brewers, is also covering Team Italy in the WBC. The Italian team features Vinny Rottino and Mark Difelice along with a bunch of guys who will be looking for something to do once the first round is over.

J.J. Hardy hit a solo home run yesterday as Fish's Fantastics defeated Eddie's Elite 2-1 in a 4 inning intrasquad game. Tim Dillard allowed both runs for the Elite, with Omar Aguilar giving up the only run for the Fantastics.

Braden Looper pitched a perfect inning yesterday. Fungoes, however, doesn't think hanging onto him would have helped the Cardinals this season. That's fine, the Brewers will take him. I still need to get the Looper jersey I promised I'd pick up.

It looks like I won't be needing a Bourgeois jersey, though. Jason Bourgeois was sent to minor league camp yesterday along with injured pitchers Mark Rogers and Alex Periard and catcher Martin Maldonado. Bourgeois' broken pinkie still is not healed enough to play, but he could return to big league camp when/if it does.

Having good plate discipline will get you more fastballs to hit. So will a lack of power. As such, this FanGraphs study has a graph showing Jason Kendall getting significantly more fastballs to hit than most others.

Mike Cameron is the subject of today's JS Spring Training story. They cover just how close he was to being a Yankee, and why he's glad to be back as a Brewer.

Got some money burning a hole in your pocket? Brew City Sports has taken a look at the odds and thinks the Brewers are an undervalued bet to win the World Series. Or, if you'd like a more concrete return on your investment, make plans to spend April 8 in Appleton with Gord Ash as part of the Timber Rattlers' Lead-Off Experience. Tickets are just $30, and the event has the added bonus of being in the same building where I'm having my wedding reception in June.

Speaking of the Timber Rattlers, Rattler Radio has pictures of the first stage of the installation for their new video board.

So, today is Cory Provus' big debut as a Brewer broadcaster. He guest-posted on Brian Anderson's blog to introduce himself. You can hear him today on WTMJ or MLB.com.

Based on the fact that you're here reading a blog about the Brewers and you've gotten this far, you're probably a Brewers fan. But if you're not, Sixty Feet, Six Inches has two words that should convince you to jump on the bandwagon: sausage race.

We haven't talked about him in a while, so I had completely forgotten Lou Palmisano is in camp with the Astros, and could be returned to the Brewers if he fails to make the team out of spring training. Cap'n Lou made a good first impression, though, hitting a monstrous home run in the Astros' intrasquad game yesterday. The Astros are short on catching, so it's possible Palmisano could stick.

Meanwhile, in other camps:

Indians: Joe Borowski, still a free agent and apparently unsatisfied with the offers he's received, has decided to retire.
Marlins: Continue to show interest in relievers Will Ohman and Chad Cordero.
Rays: Ownership says the team is out of spending money, and the current payroll may prevent them from making moves during the season.
Reds: Francisco Cordero is ok after being doused with hot coffee by Hall of Fame writer Hal McCoy.
Twins: Boof Bonser will have exploratory shoulder surgery today and could be out anywhere from a few weeks to all of 2009.

For more spring training news and analysis from around the Cactus and Grapefruit Leagues, be sure to check out the SBNation Spring Training Hub, which you can get to by clicking that link or clicking anywhere you see this attractive fellow:

The spring training hub is populated by all of the SBNation blogs. Right now the front page includes several of yesterday's notes from here at BCB, as well as dozens of other posts from other teams. The content will only get better as the days and weeks go by and more of us participate.

Similarly, the Washington Nationals front office will likely get better when other people participate. Rumor has it the Nationals have targeted Blue Jays assistant GM Tony LaCava to replace Jim Bowden when/if his current list of embarrassing charges leads to his resignation or dismissal.

Oh, and as times get tougher for cable networks, ESPN will likely be ok.

Drink up. The first game thread of spring opens in a few hours.

Twenty-two guys, four spots - Who's on your roster?

KLSnow — Wed, 11 Feb 2009 21:00:09 -0000

So, with Braden Looper in the fold, we know most, if not all of the following:

Barring a trade, Jason Kendall, Prince Fielder, Rickie Weeks, J.J. Hardy, Bill Hall, Ryan Braun, Mike Cameron and Corey Hart will all be on the opening day roster, likely in starting roles.
Ditto for Yovani Gallardo, Manny Parra, Dave Bush, Braden Looper and Jeff Suppan.
In the bullpen, Trevor Hoffman, Seth McClung, Carlos Villanueva and David Riske are virtually guaranteed spots. One more will almost certainly belong to a lefty, either Mitch Stetter or R.J. Swindle.
Craig Counsell, Mike Lamb and Mike Rivera are all back and very likely to be on the opening day roster in bench roles.

Given all of those assumptions, 21 of the 25 opening day roster spots are already decided. So what's left?

In the bullpen, two or three spots remain for all of the following players:

Todd Coffey. He still hasn't allowed a run as a Brewer and signed a major league contract to avoid arbitration. He's out of options.
Jorge Julio. Signed to a major league contract, making just under $1 million plus incentives.
Either Mitch Stetter or R.J. Swindle - whichever doesn't win the LOOGY job listed above. Throwing left-handed increases both pitchers' value, but Stetter posted a 3.20 ERA as a Brewer last season and Swindle posted a 1.98 ERA in AAA last season, so both guys already have some value.
Eduardo Morlan. Rule 5 pick has to be offered back to the Rays if he doesn't make the roster.
Mark DiFelice. 1.50 ERA in his last 14 outings as a Brewer (18 innings). Could be sent back to Nashville to work as a starter, but the Nashville rotation may already be full with Narveson, Gulin, Narron, Wright, and eventually Capuano.
Tim Dillard. Likely to be returned to AAA just because he has options remaining.
Joe Bateman, Luis Pena, Ramiro Mendoza, Omar Aguilar, Chris Narveson, Lindsay Gulin, Sam Narron and Chase Wright. Thanks for coming, guys. The eight of you and two or three of the guys above will likely pitch most of the innings for a nice staff in Nashville.

The Brewers could opt to go with a 13 man pitching staff and keep three of those guys, but then they'd have just one bench spot left. Instead, they'll likely keep 12 pitchers and pick two position players from the following list:

Tony Gwynn, Jr. Out of options, Gwynn either has to make the opening day roster or be exposed to waivers. However, he'll have to prove he's better than his .248/.300/.298 career MLB line and .243/.286/.286 major league equivalent from 2008, or he won't have much value. Also, his defense doesn't project well enough to help his chances: CHONE has him 11 runs below average in center.
Chris Duffy. Likely Gwynn's primary competition for the backup center field spot, Duffy's offensive numbers aren't earth-shattering (.269/.328/.361 in his major league career), but he's a plus defender (UZR/150 has him 6.2 runs above average in center).
Jason Bourgeois. Will likely have to win a spot as an outfielder, with Counsell and Lamb both occupying backup infield spots. Bourgeois hit .342/.404/.429 in Mexico this winter, but FanGraphs' 3 projections all have his 2009 OBP under .343.
Hernan Iribarren. Likely hurt by playing the exact same set of defensive positions as Bourgeois. Hernan also had a nice winter, hitting .306/.388/.451 in Venezuela and detonating two indisputables. Projections are similar, if not a little worse, than Bourgeois'. Likely a long shot to make the roster in the first place, he's hurt even more by having an identical player in camp with him.
Trot Nixon. If the Brewers go with 13 pitchers, Nixon and all the others below this point are already eliminated, as the last bench spot would have to go to someone who can play center. As a story, Nixon is very similar to Gabe Kapler at this point last year, but Kapler was three years younger.
Brad Nelson. He'll have to prove he can play a corner outfield spot to have much value, as Mike Lamb and Craig Counsell already have the infield covered. Likely has a higher long-term upside than Nixon if he's not a defensive liability, which he very well may be.
Casey McGehee. The Brewers insist they're eager to see what he can do, but unless he unseats Mike Lamb to platoon with Bill Hall, it's hard to imagine him making the roster. He has caught a little in the minors (including 17 games in 2008), so he could provide some value as a third catcher, but has never played the outfield, so if Lamb and Counsell are in, he's likely out.
Mat Gamel, Alcides Escobar and Angel Salome. Unless the opportunity for one of them to play full time arises, all three are likely ticketed for Nashville, where they can continue to develop their skills.
Scott Thorman, Vinny Rottino and all of the extra catchers invited to camp. Again, thanks for coming, guys. Enjoy the improved post-game food while you can.

So, assuming everyone stays healthy, four of the 22 players listed above can make the opening day roster. Who do you want, and why? Also, if you were building this roster, would you keep 12 pitchers or 13? Discuss.

Monday's Frosty Mug

KLSnow — Mon, 09 Feb 2009 14:34:34 -0000

Good morning and welcome to year two of the Frosty Mug. Thanks to everyone for all the comments on Saturday's Mugiversary post. It's always good to feel loved.

The Brewers added a little more depth to the rotation over the weekend, signing Matt Ginter to a minor league deal. Ginter started four games for the Indians in 2008 after the Sabathia trade, and posted an ERA over 5. He's almost certainly ticketed for AAA, and didn't even receive an invitation to spring training.

If you're looking to learn more about the backup plans for the rotation, Tom H. has quick profiles of Mark DiFelice, Ginter, Sam Narron, Lindsay Gulin, Chris Narveson and Chase Wright. Assuming none of them make the roster, the Brewers could have four lefty starters (Narron, Gulin, Narveson and Wright) in Nashville to open the season.

As part of the JS Spring Training preview, Tom H. has ten questions for the Brewers to answer this spring. There's nothing groundbreaking there, but it's a nice recap.

Jonathan Mayo of MiLB.com has scouting reports up for players 6-10 in MiLB.com's top 50 prospect rankings. #8 is Alcides Escobar.

Rich Lederer of Baseball Analysts has a cool graph up classifying starting pitchers by K and ground ball rates. Both Dave Bush and Jeff Suppan are on the wrong side of the graph, but he does mention Manny Parra as someone who could have a breakout season in 2009.

The hot stove didn't even get warm for some players this winter: As noted in this FanShot, Ray Durham has not received a single offer this offseason and is considering retirement. My guess is a spring training injury will leave someone an opening at second base, and his phone will ring.

Maybe Durham should hold a public workout, those seem to draw interest: The Brewers are reportedly one of eleven teams that may attend Chad Cordero's workout on February 19.

Elsewhere on the hot stove:

Braves: Have offered Tom Glavine a contract worth $1-2 million for 2009. Glavine made $9 million in 2008.
D-Backs: Signed Tom Gordon to a one year deal worth $500,000.
Dodgers: Signed Randy Wolf to a one year deal worth $5 million, which is $1 million less than the Brewers will pay Trevor Hoffman.
Giants: Have a minor league offer on the table for Rich Aurilia.
Phillies: Signed Ryan Howard to a three year deal worth $54 million. They've also reportedly offered minor league deals to Joe Borowski and Rudy Seanez.
Rangers: Signed Andruw Jones to a minor league deal, meaning Jon Heyman was right when he mentioned it last week. They also signed Brendan Donnelly to a minor league deal.
Rays: Signed reliever Winston Abreu to a minor league deal.
Twins: Signed Luis Ayala to a one year deal for $1.3 million.

The first arbitration hearing has been held, with Shawn Hill of the Nationals winning his case. He'll make $775,000 in 2009. The Nationals offered $500,000. The $275,000 difference was the second smallest figure among the 19 remaining arbitration cases.

How many players would you guess played major and minor league baseball in 2008? The correct answer is 8833, significantly more than I would have guessed. Tangotiger has a csv file of all of them, if you want it.

Last week we discussed the financial value of Bug Selig, who made over $18 million between October of 2006 and 2007. Scott Van Pelt of ESPN took that debate to the next level, making personal remarks about Selig that have led to his suspension from his ESPN Radio show.

Oh, and I missed Friday's 30th birthday of Big League Chew.

Drink up.