SB Nation - Greg Halman

Seattle Mariners Top 20 PRE-SEASON Prospects in Review

John Sickels — Thu, 13 Aug 2009 13:00:12 -0000

More photos » by Elaine Thompson - AP

4 months ago: Seattle Mariners left fielder Michael Saunders can't get to a fly ball from Tampa Bay Rays' Gregg Zaun in the eighth inning Saturday, Aug. 8, 2009, during a baseball game in Seattle. (AP Photo/Elaine Thompson)

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Seattle Mariners Top 20 PRE-SEASON Prospects in Review

This list was originally published January 2, 2009. This is a REVIEW of the PRE-SEASON list for 2009, not a revision of that list. This is a REVIEW of the old list. The first grade listed is the OLD GRADE.

1) Carlos Triunfel, INF, Grade B+: Has missed all but two games due to a broken leg.

2) Greg Halman, OF, Grade B: Hitting .212/.277/.32 with 21 homers, 151 strikeouts and 25 walks in 377 at-bats in Double-A. Enormous power, with enormous holes in his swing.

3) Phillipe Aumont, RHP, Grade B: 3.38 ERA with 55/21 K/BB in 48 innings, 40 hits allowed combined between High Desert and West Tennessee. Adapting well to relief role.

4) Juan Ramirez, RHP, Grade B: 5.19 ERA with 95/42 K/BB in 118 innings, 132 hits for High Desrt. Holding his own considering the environment, 6.35 ERA at home, 3.60 on road.

5) Michael Pineda, RHP, Grade B: Has missed most of the season with a sore elbow, currently on rehab assignment in the Arizona Rookie League.

6) Michael Saunders, OF, Grade B-: Hit .310/.378/.544 for Triple-A Tacoma, currently hitting .260/.315/.320 in 15 games for the Mariners. Hasn't shown power against major league pitching yet, but sample is very small.

7) Adam Moore, C, Grade B-: Hitting .281/.348/.407 combined between Double-A and Triple-A. Not as much power as you'd expect given size and strength.

8) Jharmidy DeJesus, 3B, Grade B-: Hitting .261/.360/.391 in the Appalachian League. Not living up to pre-season expectations yet.

9) Dennis Raben, OF, Grade B-: Has missed the entire season with injury.

10) Mario Martinez, 3B, Grade C+: Hit just .214/.264/.314 in the Midwest League. Demoted to Everett and has been more effective, .330/.373/.487. Unrefined as a hitter, will try again in full season A-ball next year.

11) Mike Carp, 1B, Grade C+: Hitting .265/.378/.446 for Tacoma. Drawing a lot of walks, power production moderate but not ideal for first base.

12) Mike Wilson, OF, Grade C+: Hitting a combined .211/.327/.366 between Double-A and Triple-A. 52 strikeouts in 41 games.

13) Maikel Cleto, RHP, Grade C+: Has pitched just nine innings in A-ball, on shelf since early July.

14) Joshua Fields, RHP, Grade C+: 6.48 ERA with 36/22 K/BB in 33 innings at Double-A, 33 hits allowed. Good strikeout rate, but command has been disappointing and he isn't as close to the majors as advertised on draft day.

15) Shawn Kelley, RHP, Grade C+: 5.04 ERA with 21/6 K/BB in 25 innings, 30 hits allowed in the majors. Has missed time with strained oblique.

16) Matt Tuiasosopo, 3B, Grade C: Hitting .256/.343/.446 in 32 games for Tacoma, another guy who missed time with injury. Strikeout rate high, 46 in 32 games, 121 at-bats.

17) Ezequiel Carrera, OF, Grade C: Hitting .344/.456/.440 in Double-A, 21 steals. Very fast, and has improved his plate discipline this year. Lack of power remains a problem.

18) Brett Lorin, RHP, Grade C: 2.32 ERA with 94/26 K/BB in 101 innings, 73 hits between Midwest League and the Sally League following trade to Pirates. Having a fine season, stock is rising.

19) Justin Thomas, LHP, Grade C: 5.40 ERA with 46/36 K/BB in 48 innings, 60 hits allowed for Tacoma. Walk rate too high, very hittable, not much of a prospect at this point.

20) Steven Hensley, RHP, Grade C: 10-4, 4.10 with 112/33 K/BB in 125 innings between Clinton, High Desert, and West Tennessee. Good command, stock has risen, survival at High Desert is a good sign.

This wasn't a particularly deep system to begin with, and injury attrition has taken a significant toll. Halman's bust potential is extremely high, and no one knows what to make of Triunfel. There is no one here who looks like a definite star, and the trade of Lorin along with Nathan Adcock and the hard-throwing Aaron Pribanic further reduces system depth. They are relying on the college-oriented 2009 draft to recharge the organization quickly.

2009 Trade Deadline Preview: Seattle Mariners

Charlie — Thu, 23 Jul 2009 19:24:39 -0000

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Wladimir Balentien could be shipped out of Seattle before the trading deadline.

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Buyers or sellers?

If you frame it as "buy" vs. "sell," then it's a tricky question indeed, because on the one hand, the Mariners are only five games out of first in the AL West. On the other, there are two teams in front of them, they're about to lose two starting pitchers (Erik Bedard and Jarrod Washburn) to free agency, and they lost 101 games last year.

I might look for new GM Jack Zdurencik to do something that doesn't fall clearly on either side, and I'm not sure what that will be. But Zdurencik is too smart for obvious binaries. Take the recent trade of Yuniesky Betancourt to the Royals for pitching prospects Dan Cortes and Derrick Saito. Sure, that looks like selling, but when you're just getting rid of a terrible player and a terrible contract, you're probably not making the team worse.

I don't think the Mariners will give up any good prospects to make a run at a flashy veteran, so they won't be buying in the traditional sense, but they might find more creative ways to improve. One possibility would be to flip Bedard or Washburn for a player who won't be a free agent at the end of the season but can still provide immediate help.

Short-term need

The Mariners' catchers have been among the worst in the majors and, like a number of contending teams, they could use a bit more pitching depth, both in the bullpen and in the rotation. A real answer at shortstop--Ronny Cedeno might not be enough--could help, too.

Long-term need

Infield prospects--shortstop Carlos Triunfel is a high-risk prospect who could turn out to be very good, and there are a fair number of interesting third basemen in the minors, but there aren't enough middle infielders or first basemen. They could also use prospects of all stripes, particularly in the higher levels of the system. Zdurencik's predecessor Bill Bavasi didn't do the M's any favors by shipping off a number of promising youngsters for Bedard and by pursuing a bizarre drafting strategy that included drafting relievers in the first round twice in a row (with Phillippe Aumont in 2007 and Joshua Fields in 2008, depending on how you look at it; the M's under Bavasi used Aumont as a starter, but then again you might count 2006 first-rounder Brandon Morrow as a reliever too, since Bavasi used him as one).

Big leaguers on the market?

Erik Bedard and Jarrod Washburn, who are both pitching well and will both be free agents after the season, might be available. With the recent acquisition of Ryan Langerhans, outfielder Wladimir Balentien could go. And while David Aardsma's name isn't coming up with any regularity, Eric Karabell makes a compelling case that Aardsma might be the the sort of player the M's would consider trading--he's racking up saves, which are often overvalued.

Minor league strength

Their pitching depth could use some work, but Michael Saunders, Ezequiel Carrera, and Tyson Gillies are a very good corps of young outfielders. Greg Halman, who has hit a ton of homers this year and done little else, would fit into the middle of that list, too, if he were hitting better than .212. Second-overall draft pick Dustin Ackley will top the list if he signs.

Take on short-term money to win?

Dumping Betancourt should allow the Mariners to add salary at the deadline if they need to.

For more on the Mariners, check out Lookout Landing.

AL West Trade Deadline Bloggers Roundtable

Rev Halofan — Tue, 21 Jul 2009 07:45:31 -0000

Here is the first part of a great interview with SBN's four AL West bloggers by Sky Kalkman of Beyond The Boxscore, SBN's stattiest blog around... Part 1: Trade Deadline

Sky Kalkman (Moderator): Which teams, under which circumstances, will be buyers over the next three weeks? How about sellers? If there are any undecideds, what will be the tipping point?

Rev Halofan (Halos Heaven): Angels are buyers. No tipping point, the bet is on the table. What do you got?

Jeff Sullivan (Lookout Landing): The M's look like tentative buyers, although a lot could change with these next two games against Texas. Also with all those other games that happen between now and whenever this round table gets published. It's weird trying to predict the future. It's actually kind of a unique position in that the M's could buy and sell. We've already seen them add guys like Langerhans and Hannahan while ditching Yuniesky Betancourt, and it's not out of the realm of possibility that they could subtract from the current Major League roster to plug a different hole.

Adam J. Morris (Lone Star Ball): There are all sort of mixed messages coming out of Texas, and I think the Rangers could be buyers or sellers, depending on the circumstances. Tom Hicks' money problems have been well chronicled, and supposedly, the Rangers can't add significant salary without dumping some salary. I think they would have liked to have moved Hank Blalock, which would have freed up some money to spend, but with Davis getting sent to the minors, they now need Blalock in the everyday lineup. They could move Vicente Padilla, who makes $11 million this year and whose contract is up at the end of the season, in order to add some salary, but that would open a hole in the rotation. The word is that Nolan Ryan is wanting to be more aggressive in making a move to add a veteran -- even if it means giving up more in the way of prospects in order to get a team to pay more of the acquired player's salary -- while Daniels is wanting to be more patient and hold off moving key prospects for now.

67MARQUEZ (Athletics Nation): Billy Beane has managed to be both at this time of the year. Let's just say any move he makes would not shock me. Well, almost any move.

Sky Kalkman (Moderator): What holes will teams be looking to fill? What are the biggest holes they *SHOULD* be looking to fill but don't seem to be concerned about? Which holes from the first half can be plugged internally, perhaps by improvement the same player?

Rev Halofan (Halos Heaven): If the Angels give Wood playing time and Vlad and Torii come back in August they need pitching. Relief Pitching and Starting Pitching and they do not have that internally. They think they have relief, though and I see them going after an overpaid third starter.

Jeff Sullivan (Lookout Landing): The team is looking for a shortstop, because Ronny :(edeno hasn't cut it. They should probably also think about exploring the reliever market, because the bullpen hasn't been very good at all, ERA be damned. I'd like to think that they could improve the bullpen internally, but I'm not sure. Finally having a lefty out there should help. Adrian Beltre should hit better than he did early in the year if he ever comes back, and his return would be a big boon should this team stay in the race for that long.

Adam J. Morris (Lone Star Ball): The Rangers need a righthanded hitting first baseman, but don't seem inclined to go that direction. If they make a move, it was long suggested that they'd look for bullpen help, because they are in dire need of a righty power arm to pair with C.J. Wilson late in the game. But with Neftali Feliz apparently primed to come up and pitch out of the bullpen, and El Duque being considered as a relief option, it appears that the Rangers are focusing more on a starting pitcher.

67MARQUEZ (Athletics Nation): There was a gaping hole on the left side of the infield, but Mark Ellis' return has allowed Adam Kennedy to man the hot corner, and Orlando Cabrera is starting to warm up a bit. It wouldn't hurt my feelings to see Daric Barton get a sustained opportunity at first.

Sky Kalkman (Moderator): Who are the most popular trade targets for those holes? Any targets flying under the radar? Any targets your team is especially intrigued in? Any popular names they're backing away from? Any rumors you'd like to start?

Rev Halofan (Halos Heaven): to paraphrase Axl Rose, The Angels got the money honey, do you have their disease? I'd say they get the most bang for buck if they trade Joe Saunders and Trevor Reckling (WTF with all these Trevors by the way? Was there a character on Miami Vice or a dude in Duran Duran named Trevor?) for Roy Halladay. They could even throw in Juan Rivera and take Vernon Wells and his salary. And they would be stupid enough to do it.

Jeff Sullivan (Lookout Landing): If a target was flying under the radar, how would we know about it? The most frequently-mentioned names coming up right now are Jack Wilson, JJ Hardy, and Freddy Sanchez. Hardy won't come cheap and Sanchez would pose a roster problem if and when Beltre returns, but it seems to me that the M's could have Wilson for a fairly low price were they so inclined.

67MARQUEZ (Athletics Nation): Pat Burrell is a name that came up recently, as the A's sent a scout to watch a Jays-Rays game.

Adam J. Morris (Lone Star Ball): The Rangers have been linked with Roy Halladay, although the Jays would probably want a couple of guys from the Holland/Feliz/Justin Smoak/Martin Perez quadumvirate, plus another couple of prospects, and I can't see Texas biting the bullet on that deal. And they supposedly can't add salary unless they move someone else (such as Hank Blalock). I think if they add someone, it will be a cheap (in terms of prospects and money) righty bat that can play some first base, such as Nomar Garciaparra.

Sky Kalkman (Moderator): Which prospects and young major leaguers are most likely to change hands? Any that teams have deemed off-limits?

Rev Halofan (Halos Heaven): Angels won't trade Brandon Wood or Jered Weaver. Erick Aybar and Kendry Morales have the most value, Saunders goes for sure if it is a "marquee" trade.

Jeff Sullivan (Lookout Landing): I don't know that anyone has been declared off-limits, although it wouldn't be hard to figure out which Mariners could be dealt and which ones couldn't. Wladimir Balentien and Jeff Clement look like total trade bait. Maybe Greg Halman, too, depending on the target.

67MARQUEZ (Athletics Nation): With Beane, that can never be declared, but it is unlikely that the A's part ways with any of their next Big Three.

Adam J. Morris (Lone Star Ball): Every team is going to be asking about the big four -- Feliz, Holland, Smoak, and Perez. And the Rangers aren't going to part with one of those guys unless it is part of a deal to bring in a big-time difference maker under team control for a while. I wouldn't be shocked if the Rangers opted to dangle Nelson Cruz as part of a package for an impact pitcher, though, since the plan is to put Josh Hamilton in RF long-term to make room for Julio Borbon in center, and Cruz is a nice middle-of-the-order bat who is cheap and under team control for a while, giving him a fair amount of value.

Sky Kalkman (Moderator): Without any trade-deadline moves, what has to happen for your team to win the division? How much more likely is your team to make the playoffs by plugging its holes or adding an impact player?

Rev Halofan (Halos Heaven): At perfect health we're the class of this division by a mile and in dire straights health-wise and no deal we have a 1 and a half game lead at the All Star Break. Translation: The three of you don't look any scarier in my rear view mirror.

67MARQUEZ (Athletics Nation): As much as I hate to admit it (and I really, really do), Rev is right. At the beginning of the season we talked about many things having to go right for the A's to win the West. And now? Short of the teams ahead of them going into the tank all at once, I'm not even sure this question was even meant for me. Adding an impact player won't even help at this stage. Unless we're talking Albert Pujols. And even then...

Adam J. Morris (Lone Star Ball): For the Rangers to win the division without any moves, they need Josh Hamilton to start hitting like Josh Hamilton again, Chris Davis to start hitting like Chris Davis again, and the pitching staff to stay healthy. I think if that happens, they'll stay in it all the way and could steal the division from the Angels.

Jeff Sullivan (Lookout Landing): If the Mariners are to win the division, they'll need the offense to play to its projection level, the Angels to play to theirs, and Erik Bedard to remain healt-oh my god we're boned. Bringing in a shortstop would help, but given that our playoff chances (now as of this writing on July 17th!) are somewhere around 12%, not even Hanley Ramirez would make us favorites. We just need luck. Either the M's need to play over their heads, or the Angels have to play under theirs. Or both. Both would make it easy.

PART TWO COMING SOON !!

TotalZone on Center Field Prospects

erik — Wed, 01 Apr 2009 10:00:13 -0000

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Thanks to the efforts of Sean Smith and Jeff Sackmann, we now have TotalZone stats for the minor leagues, which can be found at players' pages at Minor League Splits. You can read up on how useful and reliable these stats are here.

Yesterday we looked at shortstops, today let's tackle center fielders. Charted below are the 2008 stats for the consensus top center field prospects, or at least those who played enough games at the position to qualify.

	Org.	Age	Level	Outs	Chances	Runs	Runs/150
Colby Rasmus	STL	21	AAA	202	368	9	15
Cameron Maybin	FLA	21	AA	230	397	2	3
Dexter Fowler	COL	22	AA	255	482	1	1
Andrew McCutchen	PIT	21	AAA	277	484	6	8
Austin Jackson	NYY	21	AA	214	393	-13	-20
Jordan Schafer	ATL	21	AA	162	301	-1	-2
Greg Halman	SEA	20	AA	137	271	-7	-16
Ben Revere	MIN	20	A	150	260	3	7
Gorkys Hernandez	ATL	20	A+	246	378	26	42
Gerardo Parra	AZ	21	AA	136	255	-6	-14
Fernando Martinez	NYM	19	AA	195	367	-7	-12
Aaron Cunningham	OAK	22	AA	115	250	-10	-25
Engel Beltre	TEX	18	A	271	498	6	7
Julio Borbon	TEX	22	AA	147	236	14	36
Drew Stubbs	CIN	23	A+	179	353	14	24
Greg Golson	TEX	22	AA	270	477	-4	-5
Dominic Brown	PHI	20	A	119	220	2	6
Jon Jay	STL	23	AA	245	395	16	25
Brett Gardner	NYY	24	AAA	178	319	0	0
Che-Hsuan Lin	BOS	19	A	177	312	2	4

Colby Rasmus slumped at the plate last year, but his defense did not. He has been a consistent performer in center the last four years, worth +30 runs. Tony La Russa is probably mismanaging his resources a bit; he's pushing Rasmus to left field in favor of Rick Ankiel, who is projected to cost his team 4 runs in center but projects to be +4 in a corner. CHONE projects Rasmus to be +10 in a corner and +4 in center. Not a real big difference, but an extra couple of runs is an extra couple of runs.
Cameron Maybin on the other hand has been up and down. He was outstanding in 2006 (+18), bad in 2007 (-12) and then around average in '08.
Dexter Fowler has a similar story as Maybin, only with a twist. '06: -16. '07: +18. '08: +1. Could it have something to do with some home park issues going on in Asheville? Anthony Jackson was Asheville's CF in '07, he posted a +6 away and a -15 home. Michael Mitchell was Asheville's regular CF last year and was -17 at home and + 4 away. Fowler was -17 when he was at Ashville, +1 on the road. McCormick Field must be some sort of Bermuda Triangle for center fielders.
Andrew McCutchen has been a rock with +9, +8, +9 for his last three seasons. He ought to push Nate McLouth to a corner spot some point this year.
Austin Jackson is probably the Yankees' future right fielder rather than center fielder. He also was a -14 season in 2006. His bat doesn't profile nearly as well in a corner position. Brett Gardner is not in Jackson's class as far as prospect status, but has posted +13, +1 and +9 at different points in his career.
I've talked about Schafer and Hernandez before. Both have reputations for being superior center fielders, Hernandez has the numbers to back it up. Unreal numbers, actually, and it's not just over one year, he's been worth +53 runs over the last three seasons. Schafer will most likely be the Braves starting CF for 2009, but has been -17 runs since 2005. He had a couple of bad seasons followed by a couple of average ones, so he has improved.
Greg Halman, Fernando Martinez, Aaron Cunningham and Gerardo Parra all are expected to be corner outfielders in the majors according to their scouting reports. TZ wholeheartedly concurs.
Julio Borbon and Jon Jay are your speedy, contact-oriented type of center fielders. Neither have drawn raves for the defense, but both are coming off terrific seasons.
Drew Stubbs' comes with a few questions about his bat, but not his glove. He has been worth +39 runs through '06-'08.

Rally explains that with center fielders, these stats translate well from one level to the next, give or take a run or two. The average center fielder in Low A is about as good as the average major league center fielder.

Greg Halman Is Major League Ready

Jeff — Sat, 14 Mar 2009 22:51:47 -0000

So far in the WBC, Halman has seen 40 pitches over 11 at bats against the likes of Edinson Volquez, Pedro Martinez, Carlos Marmol, Ian Snell, Damaso Marte, Carlos Silva, Fernando Cabrera, and Giancarlo Alvarado. The results of those 40 pitches:

32 strikes
8 balls
22 swings
16 swinging strikes
9 called strikes
1 foul bunt

16 misses on 22 swings is a contact rate of 27%. The Major League average is 81%, and the worst mark of any non-pitcher last year to collect at least 50 at bats was Reggie Abercrombie, at 60%.

Clearly there are sample size issues here out the wazoo, but this is just a numerical way of illustrating what should be blatantly obvious to anyone who's been watching the Netherlands so far: Greg Halman is in way over his head against high-level competition. Hell, just today he struck out swinging twice against Silva on seven total pitches. Pitchers haven't been particularly kind to him, and he's seemed perfectly content to get himself out.

Is this a giant red flag? Not really - we've always known that Halman has discipline and contact issues, and we wouldn't expect him to excel in this kind of competition. Rather, I'm just pointing it out as a reminder that, while Halman has all kinds of talent and physical gifts, he's got enormous bust potential, and there remain miles and miles of development ahead of him if he wants to make it as a regular in the big leagues.

Greg Halman is an awesome talent, but he's a long ways away. And while it's fun to watch prospects get better (and Halman has gotten a lot better), the impatient among you may want to start getting excited about Michael Saunders instead. Unless something goes tragically wrong, he's likely to show up and stick long before Halman ever does.

Pirates Hire Scout in Netherlands

Charlie — Thu, 26 Feb 2009 04:19:20 -0000

At least I'm pretty sure that's what this article, written in Dutch, says. I'm not sure if this news has been reported in the US. The article also seems to say that new Pirate employee Martijn Nijhoff is one of ten Dutch scouts for Major League Baseball. Nijhoff used to pitch for the Dutch team DOOR Neptunus.

This may not be as trivial as it sounds; Nijhoff is (again, if I can make sense of the article) the coach of the Dutch team PSV, which recently produced 23-year-old Marlins starting pitcher Rick VandenHurk. The Netherlands' baseball establishment is much stronger than those of most other European countries, and there are actually some Dutch prospects out there, like the Reds' Alex Smit and especially Greg Halman, who Baseball America recently named the Mariners' #1prospect. It's doubtful (but not impossible) that setting up shop in the Netherlands will produce immediate results for the Pirates, but it's a good move for the future of the franchise.