SB Nation - Esteban Yan

Can Rafael Soriano Top The Greatest Closing Season In Rays History?

Tommy Rancel — Tue, 15 Dec 2009 11:00:16 -0000

by Gregory Smith - AP

Kind of a loaded question, but we hope so. We can argue about designated roles, and who is really the Rays best relief pitcher, but Rafael Soriano will hold the title. The team, as well as the other relievers, should benefit from that fact. That also means that he'll get a chance to answer the question posed in the title.

Like catcher and right field, the Rays search for a closer more often than not has come up empty handed. While Mariano Rivera has racked up 478 saves since the (Devil) Rays debut in 1998, 39 different Rays' relievers have comprised the franchise's 427 saves. We now turn to Soriano and hope #40 is the charm.

Looking back on Rays closers, the list is a mixed bunch. Ranging from one of the all-time save kings in Troy Percival down to Lance Carter, the list is hardly a picture of relief aces. Since we know a closer shouldn't be limited to, or just measured by, saves, I decided to set the criteria for a closer as such: The reliever must have pitched at least 40 relief innings in a season with a pLI minimum of 1.60. Here is the list:

Year	Player	IP	pLI
2009	J.P Howell	66.2	1.82
2008	Troy Percival	45.2	1.79
2008	Dan Wheeler	66.1	1.72
2007	Al Reyes	60.2	1.66
2005	Danys Baez	72.1	2.16
2004	Danys Baez	68	1.7
2003	Lance Carter	79	1.73
2002	Esteban Yan	69	2.05
2001	Esteban Yan	62.1	1.82
2000	Roberto Hernandez	73.1	1.95
1999	Roberto Hernandez	73.1	2.21
1998	Roberto Hernandez	71.1	1.73

You'll notice that 2006 is missing; that's because there was zero qualified candidates. No reliever with a minimum of 40 innings even topped a 1.2 pLI. Depending on which part of that season you're looking at, the Rays "closer" could've been any one of the following: Tyler Walker, Dan Miceli, Brian Meadows, Seth McClung, or Shawn Camp. Atrocious.

Now that we have our list, here is how those pitchers performed by FIP:

Year	Player	FIP
1999	Roberto Hernandez	2.94
2001	Esteban Yan	3.23
2009	J.P Howell	3.71
2000	Roberto Hernandez	4.13
2005	Danys Baez	4.2
2004	Danys Baez	4.25
1998	Roberto Hernandez	4.44
2008	Dan Wheeler	4.49
2003	Lance Carter	4.69
2002	Esteban Yan	4.7
2007	Al Reyes	4.85
2008	Troy Percival	5.87

Going with this quick and easy method of analysis, Roberto Hernandez's 1999 season is the golden standard for all Rays' relievers. Hernandez not only had the highest pLI in Rays history, but also the lowest FIP for a closer. A quick check of CHONE's historical WAR database says Hernandez was worth 3.1 wins above replacement that season. Nonetheless, the D-Rays finished in last place that season with a record of 69-93.

The surprise on the list has to be Esteban Yan in 2001. More famous for being referenced in the Simpsons than anything on the field, Yan had the second best closing season according to FIP. Despite what some believe, save percentage does not tell you the whole story. 2009's version of J.P. Howell finished third on the FIP list, and had the Iceman not melted late in 2009, he probably would've given Yan and Hernandez a run for their money.

While the older, oft-injured closer approached has worked in short doses, Troy Percival and his predecessor, Al Reyes, are among the worst closing seasons in the franchise's history.

In 2009, Rafael Soriano posted a pLI of 1.66 for the Braves. He finished with 75.2 innings pitched and a fantastic FIP of 2.54. If he can some how duplicate last season's success in 2010, we will witness the greatest closer season in Rays' history. Not to put to much pressure on the man's right arm (it's fragile, after all), if Soriano can give the Rays 65 high leverage innings and maintain an FIP in the 3.5 season, I'll gladly take that.

Thursday's Frosty Mug

KLSnow — Thu, 13 Aug 2009 14:58:38 -0000

More photos » by Jim Prisching - AP

Alcides Escobar talks with Willie Randolph during the first inning Wednesday.

Browse more photos »

Some things to read while searching for a signature sign-off.

So, yesterday morning I skipped out early for an appointment, got back home, ate some breakfast, mowed the lawn, then sat down at my coffee table to check the comments on the Mug and discovered what might have been the biggest news day of the season, as the Brewers demoted J.J. Hardy to AAA, promoted Alcides Escobar, fired Billy Castro, designated Bill Hall for assignment and called up Jason Bourgeois. Adam McCalvy has reactions from the clubhouse, and here are several more reactions from around the web:

J.J. Hardy has until Friday to join the Sounds, and says he's looking forward to a few days off.
Brewed Sports was not pleased with that response.
Brewer Paradise Lost is one of many who suspects this move might have been made to prevent Hardy from becoming a free agent following the 2010 season. Hardy would have to remain in the minors past September 1 for the demotion to count against his service time, and it seems unlikely the Brewers will leave him there once rosters expand.
R.J. Anderson of FanGraphs isn't sure the Escobar-for-Hardy swap helps the Brewers this season, or helps Hardy's trade value down the road.
Meanwhile, Cash Kruth caught up with Bill Hall, who seemed upbeat about his situation and expects to be on a team again soon. With that said, this is the same guy who still thought he was the best third baseman in baseball a few weeks ago.
Ken Rosenthal is reporting that at least one NL team is interested in trading for Hall.
Cincinnati Reds Blog sees the Hall situation as "a big opportunity for the Reds to pick up a talented player."
Billy Castro, who had been with the Brewers as a coach for nearly 18 years, left with no regrets. He may not get another chance to be a pitching coach, but it sounds like he'll always have a spot in the Brewer organization, if he wants it.
A Girl's View of the Brewers wonders if these moves will be enough to get the Brewers back on track.
Big League Stew accused the Brewers of waving the white flag on the 2009 season.
PocketDoppler says the Brewers are pushing the panic button.
Aaron Gleeman of Circling the Bases says the move likely came too late for the Brewers' playoff hopes.
Keep Turning Up the Heat says "these are some dark times in the Brewers organization," and doesn't agree with the decision to call up Escobar or fire Castro.
Quevedo at the Buffet doesn't get the timing or the logic behind the moves.
The Bucky Channel wonders why Alcides Escobar was only used sparingly and Jason Bourgeois wasn't used at all last night.

Meanwhile, the Brewers did actually play a game last night, and lost their second straight to the Padres, dropping their playoff chances to 2.9%, the first time all season they've fallen below 3%.

Things could get worse today, as they play a day game against the Padres, who are sending Cesar Carrillo to the mound to make his major league debut today. The Brewers are 0-4 this season in games where the opposing pitcher is making his debut. And, of course, they haven't been good in day games either, or in games played in June, July or August.

Doug Melvin may not be done dealing. The Brewers claimed Doug Davis off waivers from the D-Backs (h/t FanShot), giving the two teams 48 hours to work out a deal to bring him back to Milwaukee. Davis says it would be fun to return to Milwaukee, but Tom H. says it's unlikely to happen.

A bunch of news got lost in the shuffle with everything else that happened yesterday. Here are the important notes that got buried in today's game preview:

Both Dave Bush and Jeff Suppan are expected back before September 1.
Jesus Colome was available to pitch last night despite his bruised pinky finger.
Nick Green cleared waivers after being DFA'd and will remain in Huntsville.

One other minor league note to pass along today: Matt Hagen of The Hardball Times nominated Jeremy Jeffress for most disappointing minor leaguer in 2009.

On power rankings:

The Brewers jumped from 23rd to 20th in WhatifSports' rankings.
MLB FanHouse has the Brewers holding steady at 19.

Around baseball:

Angels: Released reliever Justin Speier.
Cardinals: Placed Todd Wellemeyer on the DL with elbow inflammation.
D-Backs: Placed Scott Schoeneweis on the DL with depression and released Tom Gordon.
Giants: Placed Rich Aurilia on the DL with ankle tendinitis.
Indians: Claimed R.J. Swindle off waivers from the Rays.
Mariners: Erik Bedard is expected to undergo shoulder surgery and miss the remainder of the season.
Marlins: Signed Esteban Yan to a minor league deal.
Pirates: Placed reliever Evan Meek on the DL with an oblique strain and claimed reliever John Meloan off waivers from the Rays.
Reds: Placed Scott Rolen on the DL with a concussion.
Royals: Acquired pitcher John Bannister from the Rangers.
Twins: Placed Glen Perkins on the DL with shoulder trouble and released Mark Grudzielanek.

By shuffling the deck in the bullpen a little bit this offseason the Brewers created some new problems, but at least they're done with this one: Reflections of Blue has had it with Guillermo Mota, who posted a 0.26 ERA over one 35.1 inning stretch and a 10.32 ERA since.

Here's something to ponder for all of you who want to make the case that J.J. Hardy should be moved to second or third base, Rickie Weeks should be moved to center field and Mat Gamel should play first base or right field: Will Carroll says a player playing out of position has a 30 percent greater chance of getting injured, based on unfamiliarity with the position.

Brian Anderson wants your help to raise money for the I Back Jack Foundation. Follow the link for more info on how you can help Jack Bartosz, a young man fighting neuroblastoma.

Speaking of causes that could use your money, UW-La Crosse, alma mater of former Brewers Jerry Augustine and Vinny Rottino, has raised enough money to keep the program alive for one more season, but is still on the chopping block.

On this day in 1987, Paul Molitor homered in the ninth to extend his hitting streak to 28 games, but the Brewers still lost to the Orioles, 5-4.

Happy birthday today to Corey Patterson, who turns 30, and former Milwaukee Brave Tony Cloninger, who turns 69.

Drink up.