SB Nation - Mark Wagner

Minor League Update -- 11/23/09

Ben Buchanan — Mon, 23 Nov 2009 18:17:48 -0000

First, a weekly reminder to join in on voting for the OTM Top Prospects list here.

Arizona Fall League

Luis Exposito: 3-7, 2B, BB, 2 K -- .314/.364/.431

-A solid showing for Luis Exposito, if not quite as good as he did in Portland. Expo kept his strikeouts down and earned as many walks as he did in AA in about half as many ABs. Not a big step forward, but also not a step back.

Jose Iglesias: 1-8, 3 K -- .275/.324/.420, 3/3 SB

-Iglesias ends on a down note, but once again the story is that he wasn't completely overwhelmed in the small sample size (73 plate appearances) against higher-level minor league competition. This showing may have cleared the way for Iglesias to start in AA next year, which would be nice if only to keep him with buddy/interpreter Exposito. Also of note is the 2 home runs, which hopefully indicate some unpredicted power potential.

Ryan Kalish: 3-11, 2B, BB, 4 K -- .301/.384/.384, 6/7 SB

-While Kalish didn't exactly carry his hot streak from late in the year over to the AFL, he put on another good OBP performance. The power was a bit lacking, but this is coming on the tail end of a year in which he hit 18 home runs during the regular season—far more than he ever had before. Kalish also put on a good show on the basepaths, as he has done in years past (for instance, stealing 12 bases in 13 attempts in the 2008 winter leagues while getting under 100 plate appearances).

Casey Kelly: 0-12, 6 K -- .171/.261/.244, 1/1 SB

-Kelly keeps moving towards full time pitching. While the level of competition was predictably way over his head, he struck out in nearly half of his at bats, which is a bit too much no matter how advanced the opposition. This performance may have cleared the way to full-time pitching in 2010.

Randor Bierd: 3.2 IP, 7 H, 4 R, 4 ER, 2 BB, 4 K – 6.04 ERA, 17:12 K:BB, 1.47 WHIP

-An uninspiring performance by an uninspiring pitcher.

Richie Lentz: 1.2 IP, 3 H, 4 R, 4 ER, 2 HR, 1 BB, 3 K – 4.11 ERA, 16:3 K:BB, 1.04 WHIP

-Lentz ended the year very poorly, giving up 6 ER over his last 2 appearances to squander a great start to the AFL. But the huge improvement in K:BB shouldn't be overlooked, and if nothing else maybe this will help him be ignored in the Rule 5 Draft.

Chris Province: 1.1 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 1 K – 3.46 ERA, 9:5 K:BB, 1.08 WHIP

-Not too bad for Province, if not as good as his year in Portland. Would have liked to have seen some K:BB improvement.

Dustin Richardson: 1 IP, 1 H, 1 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 2 K – 5.40 ERA, 18:10 K:BB, 1.97 WHIP

-Certainly not as good as his regular season performance, which brought Richardson back into the picture as a prospect. Should still get a shot for a bullpen spot during spring training, though.

Columbian Winter League

Reynaldo Rodriguez: .255/.360/.394

-The CWL does not have the best record keepers in the world, let it be known.

Dominican Winter League

Neither Navarro nor Wagner have played in a long while. I'm guessing their years are over.

Jose Capellan: 6.1 IP, 4 H, 3 R, 3 ER, 1 HR, 9 BB, 4 K – 3.86 ERA, 8:19 K:BB, 1.67 WHIP

-Well, if ever there's been an example of unsustainable results, it's Capellan. Even if he has a 3.86 ERA, this has been an awful winter league for him. 8 strikeouts to 19 walks? Awful!

Mexican Winter League

Robert Coello: 2.1 IP, 5 H, 3 R, 3 ER, 2 BB, 2 K – 2.70 ERA, 30:16 K:BB, 1.35 WHIP

-This is Coello's first real chance against competition that's close to being age appropriate since he became a pitcher, and he's actually done a pretty good job of it. This last outing sort of sucked, but still, something to be said for the righty getting his first shot at starting (he's gone 5 or more innings 4 times so far).

Puerto Rican Winter League

Reymond Fuentes: 1-5, 2 K -- .200/.200/.200

-I can't imagine this is going to be a good stint for Fuentes. He played in the GCL last year and is playing in the same league as Jimenez and Bates. I don't exactly know what level this league is supposed to be at, but it's certainly over his head.

Jorge Jimenez: 2-3, 2B, BB -- .400/.538/.800

Ken Roque: 2-6 -- .333/.333/.33

-Roque very quietly put up a .317/.400/.520 line in his 3^rd year in the GCL, finally breaking through into the A-levels where he put up 32 nice ABs in Lowell without looking too overwhelmed. Roque falls into that "sleeper middle infielder" crowd with guys like Derrik Gibson.

Andrew Dobies: 2 IP, 6 H, 3 R, 3 ER, 0 BB, 2 K – 13.50 ERA, 2:0 K:BB, 3.00 WHIP

-After missing 2008 due to injuries, Dobies put up a fair 2009 in Portland. This, so far, has not been an extension of that...

Sydney Winter League

Boss Moanaroa: 0-3, BB, K -- .393/.485/.571

Moko Moanaroa: 2-4 -- .308/.419/.385

Venezuelan Winter League

Yeiper Castillo: .2 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 1 K – 5.14 ERA, 5:6 K:BB, 2.00 WHIP

Leandro Marin: 1.1 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 0 K – 2.25 ERA, 4:1 K:BB, 1.25 WHIP

40-Man Roster Finalized, Rule 5 Draft

MLB teams had to finalize their 40-man rosters on Friday, leaving some tough decisions for teams as to which minor leaguers to protect. For the Red Sox, Jose Iglesias, Michael Bowden, Junichi Tazawa, Dustin Richardson, Mark Wagner, Aaron Bates, and Dusty Brown comprise the Minor League contingent. The most notable unprotected players available in the upcoming draft are Kris Johnson and Richie Lentz.

The Rise in the Fall of Nevin Ashley

FreeZorilla — Thu, 19 Nov 2009 12:00:13 -0000

Nevin Ashley is a 25-year-old catcher for the Rays originally drafted in the 6th round of the 2006 draft out of Indiana State University. Ashley showed ability at the plate through his time in A ball, but began to see his power disappear soon after. Ashley does possess surprising speed for a catcher as evidenced by his AFL leading four triples. Below is a snapshot of his career rates:

Season	Level	PA	BB%	K%	OBP	SLG	ISO	BABIP
2006	R	185	12.1%	26.1%	0.44	0.477	0.144	0.431
2007	A	490	10.3%	21.4%	0.354	0.431	0.152	0.332
2008	A+	386	13.0%	24.2%	0.348	0.315	0.08	0.299
2009	A+	236	9.9%	23.5%	0.343	0.335	0.095	0.305
2009	AA	139	13.2%	26.3%	0.331	0.314	0.102	0.279

Despite run of the mill offensive numbers, Nevin Ashley was named as a 2009 Florida State League All-Star. There is no question about his arm strength behind the dish as he gunned down a video game-like 48 of 101 (47.5%) base runners in 2009 between A+ and AA. As analysts, we don't have great measures available to evaluate catcher's game calling or defense. For this reason catcher defense is ignored altogether when evaluating Wins Above Replacement. Nonetheless, there's no denying it exists. If proof is needed, look at John Jaso's minor league offensive numbers and ask why he has had little to no shot with the big league club to date.

GIven the lack of information, its worth noting that Ashley was named the Rays Organizational Defensive Player of the Year Award. This seems like a true endorsement given the lack of measurable. For further subjective evaluation jsut ask Stephen Strasburg, the #1 overall pick this year, "Nevin Ashley (catcher Rays) did a great job calling the game. We were always on the same page. We knew to go to a sinker in those situations to get a ground ball." Desert Dogs Pitching Coach Paul Menhart ,when asked about catching Strasburg, chimed in, "Ashley caught his first outing and today's effort. They have had a good plan each time, a very aggressive plan."

Ashley was selected along with Organizational Base Runner of the Year Shawn O'Malley to represent the Rays in the Arizona Fall League. It's no secret Ashley worked with Ben Zobrist's Swing Mechanic, Jamie Cevallos prior to the 2008 season. While they do not actively work together any longer, they do remain in contact. Ashley seems to have found a groove in the warm Arizona climate where he has posted an OPS of 1.113 heading into November 17th, good for 4th in the league. Before I run the risk of speaking hyperbole, Nevin Ashley's 67 At-Bats in the Arizona Fall League do not qualify him as an offensive phenom in anybody's eyes. Most readers have heard the warning shots, which are all very true:

A) Ashley has been old for his minor league level

B) His offensive performance the past two seasons in A+ and AA have been uninspiring to say the least

C) The Arizona Fall League is a heavily inflated offensive league

The hope instead is that Ashley can have a modest bat to accompany potentially elite defensive skills. While sabermetricians have yet to quantify this, it is fun to imagine and not impossible that our outside the box front-office and coaching staff may have a true proprietary defensive read on Ashley. If Ashley's defense is the equivalent of John Jaso's offense and Ashley can begin to put up some respectable numbers at the dish, the Rays could have a future contributor on hand. Remember, this is a position where the expectations are so low that 2009 catcher Dioner Navarro could put up an OPS of .583 and still only be -.1 WAR.

How can we put perspective on Ashley's 57 at-bat-sample size in an extreme offensive league without discarding it entirely as some suggest? Ashley spent 2009 playing in A+, AA, and the AFL. I calculated the average team OPS in each league to create league factors based around the middle number which was AA. Then I weighted Ashley's OPS in each league by both the league factor and by the percentage of Ashley's total plate appearances for the season. This allowed for Ashley's 2009 weighted OPS of .728:

	LgOps	Weights	OPS	PA	%PA	Weighted OPS
AA	0.711	1	0.644	139	31.4%	0.203
A+	0.684	1.037975	0.678	236	53.4%	0.376
AFL	0.790	0.888889	1.113	67	15.2%	0.150
			Total PA	442		0.728

Despite the offensive nature of the league and small sample size of at-bats, we can also compare historical catcher data from the AFL going back to 2005. In an offensive league the numbers should be inflated for all hitters so it is still an apples-to-apples comparison. Below is a table of all AFL catchers since 2005 with a minimum of 50 at-bats and an OPS of .800 or better. The age column refers to the catcher's age at the time of his AFL appearance. Before and Pre-OPS refer to the catcher's immediate preceding season prior to the AFL. Now and Post-OPS refer to the 2009 season. When selecting the level for Pre and Post-AFL, I used the level with the most plate appearances for the season.

Name	Year	Age	AFLOPS	AB	Before	Pre-OPS	Now	Post-OPS
Tyler Flowers	2008	22	1.433	75	A+	0.921	AA	0.993
Matt McBride	2009	24	1.152	66	AA	0.728	???	???
Michael McKenry	2008	23	1.126	84	A+	0.827	AA	0.831
Nevin Ashley	2009	25	1.113	67	A+	0.678	???	???
Jason Jaramilo	2006	24	1.027	66	AA	0.708	MLB	0.673
Cole Armstrong	2008	25	0.968	97	AA	0.706	AAA	0.714
AJ Ellis	2006	25	0.966	52	AA	0.676	AAA	0.813
Mark Wagner	2008	24	0.916	59	AA	0.666	AA	0.887
Curtis Thigpen	2006	23	0.892	88	AA	0.79	AAA	0.577
Raul Padron	2007	23	0.864	50	A+	0.678	AA	0.717
Bobby Wilson	2006	23	0.851	56	AA	0.778	AAA	0.714
Jeff Clement	2007	24	0.847	52	AAA	0.86	AAA	0.845
Matt Wieters	2008	22	0.845	73	A+	1.024	MLB	0.753
Jarrod Saltalamacchia	2005	20	0.825	73	A+	0.913	MLB	0.661
Jeff Clement	2005	22	0.824	67	A	0.908	AAA	0.845
Josh Thole	2008	22	0.82	69	A+	0.808	AA	0.816

With the exception of Curtis Thigpen, this list has put up respectable numbers following their Arizona Autumns. The two players that jump out as being most comparable to Ashley are A.J. Ellis are Mark Wagner, given their age and mediocre offensive numbers preceding the AFL.

A.J. Ellis has spent most of the past two seasons in AAA with the Dodgers organization. He has displayed a keen eye walking 15.4% and 18.4% during that time period. He also had a BABIP of .372 the past 2 seasons. The knock on Ellis is that his lack of power (ISO .060) will erode his walking skills in the big leagues. Nonetheless his past 2 seasons his slash lines have been .321/.436/.546 and .314/.438/.375. I don't know of his defensive ability but if he is of average talent, he would have played for the Rays by now.

Mark Wagner seems to have followed Ashley's path as well displaying early success at the A levels before stalling out with a .666 OPS in AA in 2008. During his repeat campaign for the Red Sox AA affiliate following his AFL success that number jumped to .887, with both OBP and SLG jumping over .100.

Catchers are notoriously late bloomers at the plate in the minors. Ashley may fade away quietly, but there remains a chance he can become an average bat for a catcher to go with his excellent arm and subjectively well thought of defensive ability. Nevin Ashley could become the Gabe Gross of catchers. All I ask, is that you don't close the book on Nevin Ashley just yet.

Minor League Update -- 11/09/09

Ben Buchanan — Mon, 09 Nov 2009 18:34:06 -0000

More photos » by Ben Margot - AP

Remember Javier Lopez? Turns out he's a free agent.

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The Over The Monster top prospects list should start being compiled fairly soon. We'll be using reader voting again, with a slightly different format which should make it so that "write ins" aren't necessary.

Arizona Fall League

Luis Exposito: 3-8, 2B -- .286/.324/.429

-Expo's numbers just keep on improving since the bad start.

Jose Iglesias: 2-8, HR, K -- .222/.286/.378

-Again some pop out of Iglesias. His bat is clearly a work in progress, and he needs to work on plate patience BIG TIME (4 out of 5 at bats last game were 1-pitch at bats. The other was a strikeout. Though he did record RBIs on 3 of 5, so it's worth considering that it might have been somewhat situational.)

Ryan Kalish: 4-9, 2B, 2 BB, K -- .292/.368/.333

-After putting on a surprising power performance during the regular season, it's all but disappeared for Kalish in the fall. I wouldn't worry too much about it, though. It could be fatigue, it could be what he's working on, but he's shown he can smack 20+ out. His emergence as a patient hitter who's gonna get on base a lot is much more important.

Casey Kelly: 0-4, BB, K

-Whoo!

Randor Bierd: 3 IP, 4 H, 5 R, 5 ER, 1 HR, 2 BB, 4 K – 5.60 ERA, 12:9 K:BB, 1.19 WHIP

-A poor fall can't be a good sign for Bierd's flickering career.

Richie Lentz: 3 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 4 K – 0.77 ERA, 13:2 K:BB, .77 WHIP

-Lentz is putting on quite the show after getting pounded in Portland this year. A dramatic improvement in control (33 BB in 36 IP to 2 in 12) can't hurt.

Chris Province: 1 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 2 K – 3.12 ERA, 8:4 K:BB, 1.04 WHIP

Dustin Richardson: 3 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 2 BB, 3 K – 5.19 ERA, 13:7 K:BB, 1.85 WHIP

-Includes 1 IP, 2 H, 1 K in the Rising Stars game. That inning will not be included in season numbers.

Columbian Winter League

Reynaldo Rodriguez: .261/.352/.391 in 46 ABs

Dominican Winter League

Mark Wagner: 1-8, K – .296/.390/.500

-Can't dominate every week.

Jose Capellan: 7.1 IP, 9 H, 4 R, 4 ER, 5 BB, 0 K – 3.71 ERA, 4:10 K:BB, 1.53 WHIP

-The ERA isn't horrible. But the peripherals...Oh the peripherals.

Sydney Winter League

The brothers Moanaroa and Mitch Dening have been hanging out in Aussie.

Mitch Dening: .500/.600/1.500 in 4 ABs

Boss Moanaroa: .357/.500/.429 in 14 ABs

-Still want to see the power.

Moko Moanaroa: .250/.357/.250

Venezuelan Winter League

Yeiper Castillo: 2.2 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 2 BB, 1 K – 1.80 ERA, 4:4 K:BB, 1.40 WHIP

Felix Doubront: 4.1 IP, 2 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 0 BB, 0 K – 2.84 ERA, 2:0 K:BB, .95 WHIP

Leandro Marin: 1 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 2 K – 3.38 ERA, 4:0 K:BB, 1.13 WHIP

List of Red Sox Minor League Free Agents

Edit: I have been correctly called out by poster Chebornek for not crediting SoxProspects.com for having gotten my information for this list from them. It was an oversight, and certainly in no way malicious. SoxProspects.com is a fantastic site and I encourage any and all of Over the Monster's readers to visit it--they're honestly a better resource than I am.

Technically, some of these names aren't minor leaguers, but it's worth noting them separate from the obvious big name guys.

Zach Borowiak

Robert Coello

Nick Green

Derrick Loop

Dave McKae

Iggy Suarez

Good luck to all the free agents in finding somewhere to play—whether back with Boston or elsewhere.

(Javier Lopez is a pretty surprising name, if you ask me.)

Minor League Update -- 11/01/09

Ben Buchanan — Mon, 02 Nov 2009 03:49:25 -0000

Typical slow week in the minors. The offseason sucks--especially before the stove heats up, as it were.

Arizona Fall League

Luis Exposito: 4-12, 2B, BB -- .259/.310/.407

-Expo is getting in a good rhythm since starting slow. Gotta love the lack of strikeouts.

Jose Iglesias: 2-17, 4 K -- .216/.293/.324

-Ok, so the honeymoon period is over. But seriously, no freaking out. He's not quite 20 yet and playing in the elite fall league for AA/AAA competition. Besides, we knew the bat was gonna need some work.

Ryan Kalish: 2-12, 2 BB -- .256/.311/.282

-It's a little less excusable for Kalish, though. The more pessimistic of us will start worrying about if he can reproduce his late '09 numbers at AA to make the move up.

Casey Kelly: 3-7, 2B, 3B, BB, K -- .250/.400/.438

-I honestly don't know whether to be happy that Kelly is at least showing that if he does choose to be a SS he may well have some upside, or pissed that this could steer him away from pitching when he's clearly shown favoritism towards playing shortstop all other concerns (abilities, money) being equal.

Richie Lentz: 2.2 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 3 K – 1.04 ERA, 9:1 K:BB, .57 WHIP

Chris Province: 3.1 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 3 K – 3.52 ERA, 6:3 K:BB, 1.04 WHIP

Dustin Richardson: 1.1 IP, 3 H, 4 R, 4 ER, 1 HR, 2 BB, 1 K – 6.75 ERA, 10:5 K:BB, 2.10 WHIP

-A really bad day for Richardson on the 26th, giving up a walkoff grand slam. ERA of 108 on the day.

Columbian Winter League

Reynaldo Rodriguez: .263/.423/.421, 1 HR, 19 AB

-For those who don't remember, Rodriguez is the guy from the independent GBL. It's difficult to get game-by-game numbers on the CWL, so I'll just give you the updated slash line. So far, he's displaying some good patience, as that's 6 walks in 26 plate appearances.

Dominican Winter League

Mark Wagner: 3-10, 2B, 2 BB, 2 K -- .346/.455/.615

Venezuelan Winter League

Jose Alvarez: 1.1 IP, 4 H, 3 R, 3 ER, 1 HR, 1 BB, 2 K – 3.86 ERA, 6:3 K:BB, 1.43 WHIP

Yeiper Castillo: 1.2 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 2 BB, 3 K – 3.86 ERA, 3:2 K:BB, 1.72 WHIP

Leandro Marin: .1 IP, 3 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 0 BB, 0 K – 5.40 ERA, 2:0 K:BB, 1.80 WHIP

Sox Farm Director Hazen Interviews with the Padres

Mike Hazen interviewed with the team for the position of assistant GM. The GM he would be assisting is, of course, former Sox executive Jed Hoyer, who left his position as Boston's director of player development on Monday to join the Padres. It's unsurprising that Hazen would bring a few guys with him, but I'm sure the Sox would rather avoid having to replace quite so many executives responsible for their impressive farm system.

Dissecting the Red Sox Roster: Batters

Ben Buchanan — Wed, 28 Oct 2009 21:32:20 -0000

More photos » by Charles Krupa - AP

This man swings a big bat. A very, very big bat. (AP Photo/Charles Krupa)

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Well, this took me a little longer than I expected, but oh well. Continuing in the player-by-player breakdown of who we had in 2009 and what they are to the team in 2010, I give you the batters.

Brian Anderson: Let's start things off easy, shall we? Brian Anderson really brought nothing to this team in 2009. Sure, he had that one really good game against Cleveland when nothing mattered, and his 1.028 OPS is pretty to look at if you ignore how many ABs it took. But he's not a major league player. If he's willing to be stuffed back in the minor leagues, maybe he comes back as very mediocre insurance. But if not, the Sox should have no qualms with dumping the failed prospect.

Rocco Baldelli: Rocco wasn't all that bad as far as a bench bat is concerned. He had a very low OBP, but brought a little pop to the lineup when he was slotted in and finished with a mid-700s OPS. He even played a good center field in limited innings, if his UZR came in below average in the outfield over the year. Ultimately, though, Rocco does not bring any solid reliability to the bench. He's got obvious injury risks, and if you can't rely on a guy to come off the bench and give you a solid AB regardless of how often he plays is not necessarily the guy you want. Unless his price is very low, I expect the Sox will let him walk in favor of someone more reliable.

Jason Bay: Now here's where things get interesting. Let's look at the facts: Jason Bay was a fantastic offensive producer for the Red Sox. He lead American League outfielders in numerous offensive statistics, and was a great middle-of-the-order guy every month but July. Now, it's tempting to just say "sign him"—and I think the Red Sox ultimately will. But I'm not sure that's going to be a good idea. For a team where the goal has long been to exploit the unexploited market and avoid overpaying based on name and hype, Jason Bay seems like exactly the wrong sort of signing: a guy with big numbers where people often look (RBI, HR, and yes, OBP, SLG, and wOBA) but crap numbers where they do not (UZR). If Bay wants to sign with us, he'd better understand that he will have to DH when we ask him to DH.

J.D. Drew: Seriously, for those of you Drew-haters—and I know a few still linger—ask yourselves if you're not a bit too caught up in his 2007 numbers. Last year he was a top-10 outfielder by wOBA, top-3 by OPS. And unlike his similarly offensively gifted outfielder Jason Bay, Drew is a very solid defensive outfielder as well, worth 9.7 runs above replacement, good for 6^th amongst major league right fielders. Is he costly? Yes, but he's a ridiculously good player and worth every penny in '08 and '09. I'm not saying we should resign him after his contract runs out in 2 years, but until then he's an integral part of this team that's probably being underutilized batting 8^th every other game.

Jacoby Ellsbury: There's not a lot left to be said about Jacoby Ellsbury that hasn't already been said here. A seemingly great defensive outfielder due to speed and the occasional flashy dive or leap, Ellsbury's abilities do not hold up well under scrutiny. Bad jumps and poor routes lead him to being one of the worst defensive center fielders by UZR, and offensively the problems are the same as usual: OBP, OBP, OBP. As a leadoff hitter, that number should be higher than it is, though he's made improvements, it's questionable whether that's due to improving skills or a higher BABIP this year. The K% and BB% are moving slowly in the right direction, but to stay in CF he's going to have to improve his defense, and if he wants to make it in left, he's going to need to improve his bat way more than he has so far.

Joey Gathright: He's a good guy to have in the system, but he's not one you want for the long haul. He's not got a bat to be worth a spot on the bench except when you're in the postseason and can expect to be playing your starters every single game and might just need that one key SB. Otherwise, hes' a roster spot best used on a solid all-around player.

Alex Gonzalez: There's gotta be a little bit of emotion involved in the decision making process for those who want to bring the more diminutive A-Gon back. The Red Sox hadn't had a guy let them feel safe on a ball hit to the SS hole for a while, and Gonzalez gave them that for a short time. Add in a few clutch hits, a surprising number of homers, and replacing a combination of Julio Lugo, Nick Green, and Brian Woodward and I'm surprised we haven't had statues going up left and right. But looking at Gonzo's case rationally, he's not at all worth the $6 million option on his contract, and he's probably not a great player to keep on. First off, even his .316 OBP this year with the Sox was very nearly a career high. He is, undoubtedly, a black hole in the lineup. And in the field, while he's good, he's not great and he's not likely to get any better as he gets older. This guy is not a solution to the long-term problem, he is a short-term stopgap who kept Sox fans from tearing out their hair. In his short time with the Sox, Jed Lowrie has shown no signs of driving Sox fans insane with fielding errors, and has the potential to swing a big bat. Pair him with another possible solution (*cough*JJ Hardy*cough*) and see who emerges.

Nick Green: As fun as it was to watch Nick Green go on his early-season hot streak and show remarkable range at short, he's unlikely to reproduce either next year, and so is probably minor-league depth at best for this team.

Casey Kotchman: Another player who just doesn't have a great future with the Sox. There's likely at least one team in the league likely to give him a starting job at first, and he never seemed to get his bat going even to his usual levels as a bench player. While he's got a great glove at first, that's just not the greatest use of a bench spot, especially if we can employ a late-inning defensive unit with Jed at 3^rd, Youk at 1^st, and hopefully a good defensive backup/platoon SS. Send him on his way and see if we can't get some value for him.

George Kottaras: Bad bat, mediocre defensive catcher, and with Mark Wagner throwing out guys left and right and flashing a bat again, he may well have missed his window with the Sox. Sorry, Kott.

Mike Lowell: To say Mike has been disappointing since signing his contract in the 2007-2008 offseason would probably be an understatement. .274/.338/.461 and .290/.337/.474 are not lines worth $12 million, especially not when paired with defense befitting a cripple. However, there's reason to be encouraged. Even with limited starts, Lowell put up pretty good numbers in July and August before disappearing in September, and started to show signs of being the old defensive Lowell as the season came to a close. The ability to be the old Mike Lowell is still there, and hopefully with more consistent playing time (with Martinez taking over at catcher, Youk will be staying at first a lot more) and a healed hip, Mike could flash us some of the old magic in what will almost certainly be his last year with the Red Sox.

Jed Lowrie: If the wrist is healthy, he should be our starting shortstop. The defense is there, the offense should by all accounts be there with a well-repaired wrist—there's no evidence of significant discrepancies in his L/R splits in the minors. I still think he's our shortstop of the future.

Victor Martinez: I'll admit that I got this guy wrong. He came into Fenway and produced. But that doesn't change that he's not an impressive defensive catcher, which is the position he's going to have to fill more often than not next year. Hopefully, his position splits fall more in line with his pre-'09 numbers instead of his clearly first base heavy ones from last year. Otherwise, while he won't be Varitek bad, the upgrade isn't going to be as big as we expect.

David Ortiz: Perhaps the biggest single question mark on the Red Sox going into 2010 is Big Papi. Obviously, he is on the decline. Obviously, he's not due for a big contract in 2011 if any at all. And obviously, so long as he doesn't somehow find his way into pin stripes, he's due to go down as one of the all-time Sox if only for his contributions in '07 and especially '04. But next year anything could happen. While Ortiz ended the season with an OPS of .794, he put up a 1.062 OPS in June, .845 in July, .825 in August, and .947 in September. But when that's being so strongly offset by the slow starts he's had for the last few years, it's hard to justify keeping him consistently at DH. Papi needs to figure out what it is that's making him start slow (not exactly the sign of an aging guy who would tend to break down over the course of the season) over the offseason, and FIX IT. More prep, less prep, I don't know, but if he fixes it, the Sox could pull a huge weapon out of nowhere.

Or he could just continue to disappear.

Dustin Pedroia: Not much to this one. He's our guy at second base for the foreseeable future. Huge defense, great on base capabilities, and with the ability to show a little sneaky pop. After putting up an MVP season in 2008, Pedroia seemed to regress a little in 2009, but I wouldn't expect that to continue at all. In fact, I'd expect him to get better in a lot of ways. After BABIPs of .334 and .336 in '07 and '08, Petey posted a .300 in '09. He had a little bit of a GB/FB shift, and maybe swung for the fences a bit too much when he had only a couple dingers midway through the year. If Petey can get back to playing his game, he could easily jump back over the .850 OPS mark.

Jason Varitek: As much as I love the captain for all he's done, it's time to call it quits. Tek is not currently worth a roster spot. He doesn't have the offense to be a full-time catcher, or the defense to be a backup. Plus his presence will likely just make it harder to get the pitchers in synch with Martinez and whoever ends up backing him up next season. If he insists on picking up the player's option, pay him his 3 million and cut him loose. I hope he ends up as a coach with us someday, but there's just no justification to waste a spot on him.

Chris Woodward: A guy with no redeeming qualities. Awful defense, awful offense...Don't even stick him in Pawtucket, just cut him.

Kevin Youkilis: After the dramatic improvement between '07 and '08, Sox fans would've been completely justified in wondering if this late-blooming Youk was for real. .843 OPS is acceptable at 3^rd, or 1^st with great defense. .959 OPS with great defense at the corners? That's MVP stuff. .312/.390/.569 became .305/.413/.548, and Sox fans were reassured. Kevin Youkilis is THE middle-of-the-lineup guy for the Red Sox. He may not his tons of homers, but he's going to produce. Youk's extension was clearly a good buy now.

By the way, did anyone else realize he had 7 steals last year? Go figure. Nice little tidbit to end the article on.

Minor League Update -- 10/25/2009

Ben Buchanan — Sun, 25 Oct 2009 21:02:40 -0000

All eyes are on flamethrowing lefty Aroldis Chapman...But should they be? via infieldfly.files.wordpress.com

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Not a ton on the slate this week. The standard lines, of course, but not much more.

Minor Lines (Since last week, and on the season)

Arizona Fall League

Luis Exposito: 2-8, HR, K -- .200/.250/.400

Jose Iglesias: 3-15, BB, 2 K, 2 SB – .300/.417/.500

-A lot closer to the offense we expected out of him starting out.

Ryan Kalish: 6-17, 2B, BB, 6 K, SB -- .296/.323/.333

-Good to see him start to get some offense going. Bad to see him with so many Ks.

Casey Kelly: 0-7, BB, 4 K, SB -- .111/.333/.111

-A deliciously bad week for the young pitcher. PITCHER I SAY!

Richie Lentz: 2 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 1 K – 1.50 ERA, 6:1 K:BB, .83 WHIP

Chris Province: 2.1 IP, 3 H, 3 R, 3 ER, 2 BB, 1 K – 6.23 ERA, 3:3 K:BB, 1.4 WHIP

Dustin Richardson: 2 IP, 5 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 1 HR, 0 BB, 4 K – 1.69 ERA, 9:1 K:BB, 1.37 WHIP

Dominican Winter League

Yamaico Navarro: 0-9, 3 K -- .125/.125/.250

-Not a pretty week for Navarro.

Mark Wagner: 5-11, 2 HR, 3 BB, 6 K -- .375/.450/.750

-And if the offense isn't enough, he's caught 4 of 8 base stealers. Ick at the strikeouts though.

Jose Capellan: 9.2 IP, 7 H, 3 R, 3 ER, 5 BB, 4 K – 2.79 ERA, 4:5 K:BB, 1.25 WHIP

Venezuelan Winter League

Jose Alvarez: 1.1 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 1 K – 0.00 ERA, 4:2 K:BB, .88 WHIP

Yeiper Castillo: .2 IP, 2 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 0 BB, 0 K – 13.50 ERA, 0:0 K:BB, 3.00 WHIP

Leandro Marin: 1 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 2 K -- 0.00 ERA, 2:0 K:BB, 0.00 WHIP

Aroldis Chapman to talk with Sox on Wednesday

Not even sure if this qualifies as Minor League info, but since he's not in the majors yet I'm gonna assume. Anyways, the Sox have unsurprisingly shown interest in the hard-throwing lefty, and Chapman is scheduled to meet with the Sox in Boston on Wednesday after meeting with several GMs in New York last week.

Personally, I don't feel Chapman's velocity offsets his high price tag and questionable control, but depending on who you ask, he's the best available pitching talent this offseason.

Yusei Kikuchi to stay in Japan

That's one storyline that ended fairly quickly. This isn't really a big deal for any team out there—he was going to be a questionable A-level acquisition at best. Perhaps someone missed out on a big bargain, but just as likely that they missed out on a bust.

Minor League Update -- 10/18/2009

Ben Buchanan — Sun, 18 Oct 2009 18:50:49 -0000

I swear I had found a good picture of Jose Iglesias somewhere recently. But today all I could find was this, and I'm sure not putting that up on the front page.

Fall & Winter Leagues Underway

Four of the six winter leagues are now underway, with the Sox sending players to three of them. The Arizona Fall League is by far the most impressive group—as it does tend to be the premiere league—including names like Ryan Kalish, Casey Kelly (SS), Jose Iglesias, Luis Exposito, and Dustin Richardson.

The Venezuelan Winter League team is headlined by Felix Doubront, who is joined by a number of young pitchers all bearing huge "work in progress" stickers.

The Dominican Winter League Sox contingent is small, but with some good talent, as Stolmy Pimentel, Mark Wagner, Yamaico Navarro, and Oscar Tejeda are all set to play. They are joined by Jose Capellan, who has been on a long downward trend with the Sox since coming out strong in his trip from the DSL to Lowell.

Early Returns

The Sox' Arizona Fall League team, the Mesa Solar Sox (which they share with the Angels, Cubs, Marlins, and Twins) is off to a rocky start, going 2-3 in their first 5 games. Let's start with the bad for the Sox Prospects on the team: Kalish and Exposito are not exactly lighting the world on fire, going 2-10 and 1-7 respectively, each with a walk and 4 strikeouts.

Now for the good. The pitching has been pretty impressive. Two Sox starters-turned-relievers, Chris Province and Dustin Richardson, had seemingly turned around their careers with the transition last year, putting up ERAs of 2.60 and 2.71 respectively. Richardson even managed to see some time with the major league team, pitching 3.1 scoreless innings. Their success has carried over to the first few games, with Province throwing 2 hitless innings giving up only a walk while striking out 2. Richardson has been equally if not more impressive, with 3.1 scoreless innings giving up a hit and a walk while striking out 5. Richie Lentz has been slightly less impressive, giving up 1 run in 4 innings on 3 hits, but hasn't walked anyone and has recorded 5 strikeouts.

While one of the Sox' top offensive prospects in Ryan Kalish hasn't been hitting, the team is getting some offense from unusual places. Most remarkable has been Jose Iglesias' first few plate appearances, during which he's gone 3-5 with 2 walks, a double, and a home run. He's even hit the ball fairly hard in making his outs. For a guy who's not supposed to have any bat, this is an encouraging, if small, start. Casey Kelly, much to everyone's chagrin, has also not failed in the one game he's seen action in, going 1-2 with 2 walks and a strikeout.

In the Venezeulan league, Felix Doubront gave up 4 hits in 2 innings, allowing 1 run to score while striking out 2. Jose Alvarez, a lefty reliever who has struggled at higher levels, has pitched 4.1 scoreless innings, allowing 1 hit and 2 walks while striking out 3.

Little to report in the Dominican Winter League. Yamaico Navarro is 2-7 with a strikeout and a stolen base, while Mark Wagner is 1-5 with a strikeout.

Sox Sign Top Independent Prospect

Reynaldo Rodriguez, the Rookie of the Year in the Golden Baseball League and Baseball America's #1 Independent League prospect, was signed by the Sox on Wednesday to a minor league deal. After struggling in the Yankees' system at the GCL level and missing the 2008 season due to injury, Rodriguez was released and, after earning MVP honors in the Colombian Winter League (.378/.468/.558 in 172 ABs), Rodriguez earned rookie of the year honors in the Golden Baseball League by putting up a line of .335/.380/.486.

The 23-year-old is a great defensive first baseman with limited home run pop, but with a large frame that projects to add more. He has a bit of speed—especially for a first baseman—and doesn't strike out much. Rodriguez will hope to follow in the footsteps of 26-year-old Daniel Nava, who has been tearing his way through the Sox system since being signed by the Sox out of the Golden League, where he put up an OPS of 1.100 in 256 at bats.

Sox to Meet with Japanese LHP Yusei Kikuchi

Kikuchi, 18 years old, is fresh out of high school and faces the tough decision of whether to stay in Japan and enter the draft, or go to America and enter a MLB system. It's quite likely that, were he to come to America, the Sox would hold a distinct advantage over the other major league teams given the presence of Daisuke Matsuzaka—though that's not to say the other teams are devoid of certain influential talent.

Kikuchi's fastball sits around 90, topping out at 95, and he has a good looking slider. Throws—believe it or not—an Eephus pitch—and is developing a curveball. At 18, Kikuchi can be expected to add some velocity as he progresses.

The Chunichi Dragons have announced their intentions to draft Kikuchi regardless of whether or not he has decided to leave Japan.

Bloody Sox Laundry 10/10 -- Feel Bad Inc.

Ben Buchanan — Sat, 10 Oct 2009 09:26:40 -0000

We're down 2-0 in a best-of-5 series. Not much to feel good about, so I'll do my best to avoid being too depressing--or perhaps even relevant.

Extra Bases - Lester to Pitch if Sox Force Game 4

One has to wonder how Daisuke feels about this. One also has to wonder if anyone cares how he does.

Boston Herald - Pedroia talks Sox Fans Off of Ledge

It's hard to have any faith when you've gotta win 3 straight elimination games, but if any team can do it, '04 and '07 say it's the Sox.

38 Pitches - Curt Still Doesn't Like Bucknor

WEEI - Beckett doesn't either.

Red Sox - Francona Felled by Fish

Tito was feeling fine before tonights game, but the nausea has reportedly returned after watching Boston's offense tonight.

WEEI - Henry Tried to Acquire Beckett, Burnett for Free

That would've been a ridiculous coup. The obvious hypothetical here is "what if we still had Hanley".

SoxProspects – Winter Leagues Underway

Why do some Winter Leagues start before Fall Leagues anyways? Oh well. There's not a lot of interesting names here. Doubront is absolutely worth paying attention to though, and if Mark Wagner does well it could go a long way towards giving him a shot going into ST next year. Alvarez is also worth a look. The real meat comes in the Arizona Fall League, though, with Iglesias, Exposito, Kalish, and Richardson all participating.

Oh, and Casey Kelly too, but he's batting, so who cares?

Feel free to drop a comment with anything you find out there on the Wide World of the Web.

Bloody Sox Laundry - 8/28/09

bs.uf15bosox9bears23 — Fri, 28 Aug 2009 09:00:31 -0000

More photos » by Darren Calabrese - AP

Yeah, the jocks never really get geek humor.

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I get to join in tonight!!! YAY weekend! In other news, we've got a player who's also trying come back after a long break:

Lowrie's wrist acts up again - projo.com

...rehabbing shortstop Jed Lowrie left the game in the third inning. He felt some discomfort in his surgically repaired left wrist.

BUT WAIT - our Jedi hasn't quite lost that hand yet.

Lowrie: 'I'm not ready to give up' - Extra Bases

"I do know the lefthanded check swing is what's causing it," Lowrie said. "Talking to people coming off wrist injuries, coming off wrist surgeries, the check swing is kind of the final hurdle. So I know there's light at the end of the tunnel."

YAY!!! Hopefully this will give him incentive to develop a crazy good eye - perhaps a training session with the blast shield flipped down on the helmet?

In other news, The Empire Strikes [to prevent us from completing a trade by sending a PTBNL] Back, and explore some of that short dude - no, not Pedroia, the green guy from Star Wars, Yoda - his favorite sayings, we shall.

Carter claimed - Extra Bases

Damn MFY. He'll have to wait until the offseason to join the LOLMets...

"Fear is the path to the dark side. Fear leads to ANGER. ANGER leads to hate. Hate leads to suffering."

Baseball's angriest players - Yahoo! Sports

So if you see Milton Bradley wearing a hooded robe, run fast.

"Ready are you? What know you of ready?"

Q&A with Jason McLeod [Director of Amateur Scouting] - SoxProspects.com

"The ~~dark side~~ Free Agent Market clouds everything. Impossible to see the future is."

Trio of backstop prospects catching on - Full Count

Amongst all the bodies in the system, who is the team’s catcher of the future?

"Mark Wagner," says a source within the organization with what can only be perceived as the utmost confidence.

Blame Randy if you don't like the Star Wars thing. Find some links, and drop them off here like you'd drop off a young Jedi training candidate. Or sit around and discuss the events of the day like the Council.

Oh, this might be important - Ells has a sprained ankle

Brave New Pawtucket

Ben Buchanan — Tue, 04 Aug 2009 11:00:40 -0000

More photos » by Paul Beaty - AP

Huzzah! Finally, an SBN-hosted picture I can use! (AP Photo/Paul Beaty)

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About 50 days ago, I wrote a piece on upcoming roster changes for the Pawtucket Red Sox that would be necessitated by a surge of players from below (see: The Pawtucket Roster Crunch). Things have turned out slightly differently. Promotion from within has certainly occurred. Aaron Bates had already moved up by then. Mark Wagner has since, and Junichi Tazawa recently joined the ranks in McCoy Stadium. Victor Martinez' acquisition will likely force Kottaras back down also (he should clear waivers) once the dust has settled. I expect the denizens of this site are already plenty familiar with those names, though, so let's focus elsewhere.

Equal pressure has come from outside the organization. By trading Julio Lugo and Mark Kotsay, the Red Sox acquired Chris Duncan and Brian Anderson. These acquisitions have of course required counter moves. Joining the ranks of the departed are outfielders Freddy Guzman, Jonathan Van Every (who left earlier due to a season ending injury, signing with Pittsburgh), and Paul McAnulty, as well as catcher Carlos Maldonado.

Two once highly-touted prospects whose careers had fizzled over the last few years, Duncan and Anderson now provide organizational depth at the AAA level with hopes of maybe reigniting the spark that a few years back had promised long successful MLB careers.

Major League success has always eluded Brian Anderson. Despite once being named a top-30 prospect in all of Baseball, Anderson has never batted well for average, has only once managed an OBP over .300 (this season at .322), and has only once slugged over .400 (last year and .436). His career average line in 782 professional at bats is an ugly .225/.288/.364. So far, in his short AAA stint, Anderson has been average. He's homered twice in 25 at bats, and has 7 hits for a .280 average. He's only walked once, however, leaving his OBP at a lowly .308, and that looks particularly ugly next to the 6 strikeouts. Earlier this year, with AAA Charlotte, he posted similar average and on base numbers, just without any power to back it up. It would be more than a little bit wishful to expect Anderson to turn it around at this point and live up to his 1^st round pick status, or anything close to it.

Chris Duncan, on the other hand, has experienced quite a bit of success in the majors. In his first season in the majors in 2006, Duncan was on fire, hitting 22 home runs in only 280 at bats en route to a line of .293/.363/.589. He followed this up with a solid, if unimpressive in comparison 2007, where he nearly matched his home run numbers, but in an extra 100 at bats. His high strikeout rate caught up with him somewhat, lowering his average to .259, but where he nearly doubled his strikeouts, he also nearly doubled his walks, keeping his OBP fairly consistent at .354. Duncan has been hampered by injuries in the last few years, though, starting with a hernia in late 2007, then a herniated disk in his neck in July of 2008. In recovering this year, Duncan posted a career low OPS of .687 in 260 career at bats. Duncan typically struggles tremendously against lefties, but has hit righties very well over the course of his career.

For the Red Sox right now, Brian Anderson is the one most likely to contribute, and could actually see time with the team reasonably soon. While Josh Reddick is more than making use of his time in the majors, the Sox are certain to want to make sure he gets ample playing time, so if the regular cadre of outfielders ends up healthy anytime soon, he could quickly be recalled to AA—or pro/demoted to AAA—to assure him a standard 4 at bats a game. In such a situation, the Sox would likely want to have a 5^th outfielder on the bench, and Brian Anderson can provide a solid glove at all three positions. Duncan lacks the range the Red Sox would be looking for, and so for now will most likely have to make the best with his opportunity in Pawtucket. If he can get himself healthy, his ceiling could be fairly high though, if unlikely to be reached. If he can also work out his problems with lefties to a point where he's at least respectable against them, Duncan has a slim chance of being a future contributor to the team. If not, he's more likely to be traded elsewhere to act in a platoon role. Still, at the moment he has quite a bit more long-term potential than Brian Anderson.