SB Nation - Jed Lowrie

Top Moments '09: No. 6 - Comeback Over Angels Features Trio of Shortstops

Randy Booth — Mon, 21 Dec 2009 11:00:20 -0000

More photos » by Elise Amendola - AP

3 months ago: Boston Red Sox's Alex Gonzalez, left, celebrates with teammates, including Dustin Pedroia, far right, after hitting a walkoff single to drive in the winning run for a 9-8 victory against the Los Angeles Angels in the ninth inning of a baseball game at Fenway Park in Boston, Wednesday, Sept. 16, 2009. (AP Photo/Elise Amendola)

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We didn't see shortstops Alex Gonzalez, Jed Lowrie and Nick Green work together a lot this season. But why would we? All three are shortstops and while they have some versatility, it's just rare to see three players all at the same position do something significant in the same game together.

Except on Sept. 16.

With the Angels in town for a three-game set, the Red Sox wanted to extend their five-game winning streak. They took game one pretty easily, setting the stage for a game two.

Game two started simple enough: the Angels went up 3-0 through five innings. The Sox managed just three hits before the sixth inning -- but that's when they took over with five runs. But that's just the start of this up-and-down game.

The Sox's 5-3 lead didn't last long, as the Angels went on to score four runs in the seventh. Then the Sox scored two in the bottom of the eighth, setting up a 7-7 all game going into the ninth.

Stressful.

The tie game didn't last long, though, as Bobby Abreu knocked Chone Figgins in with a single off of reliever Daniel Bard. The Sox were once again on the wrong side of the score and needed one run in the ninth to stay alive.

The ninth started in bad fashion for the Sox. Jason Bay and Mike Lowell popped up and flied out, respectively, putting the Sox's chances at slim to none. Typically when this happens, there is no hope. But this night felt different.

If the Sox were to try and win this game, it was on David Ortiz to get on base. He worked a walk, was pinch-ran for by Joey Gathright, and J.D. Drew followed with a single. This is where the shortstops come to rescue.

Jed Lowrie, who was hitting for Dusty Brown, singled to load the bases for Nick Green, who batted for Casey Kotchman. It was produce or go home. In what was a very heated at-bat with a lot of close ball and strike calls, Green walked, forcing Gathright in from third and making a tie game.

But it still wasn't done.

With the bases still juiced, Alex Gonzalez came to the plate to try and give the Sox another W. There were a lot of doubters of Gonzo at the time, but he came through in the clutch: Gonzo hit a soft blooper into left field that dropped to the feet of Juan Rivera to score Drew and give the Sox the comeback win.

Phew. That was an exhausting game.

With the trio of shortstops all making a late-game splash, it was an interesting sight to see. The Sox only won this game because they gutted it out. Terry Francona made some interesting lineup moves but it all paid off in the end.

After all, it does come down to the W.

Winter Meetings Primer, 2009

Jesse — Mon, 07 Dec 2009 00:15:52 -0000

More photos » by Jennifer Simonson - AP

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Sure, it's a rumor-filled week that generally leads to nothing. But it's still a rumor-filled week, and to me that equals fun.

Twins Needs

Second Base
Third Base
Starting Pitcher
Bench Depth
Joe Mauer Extension

Between LEN III and Joe C., the Twins have been tied to a few names already this off-season: Mark DeRosa, Rich Harden, Adrian Beltre, Jarrod Washburn and Orlando Hudson. There has been little speculation fueled by comments from the front office, although this has been commonplace during the Bill Smith era. Now entering his third Winter Meetings and in the best position to win since taking on the role of General Manager, it will be interesting to see if the rumors lead to anything concrete this season.

Obviously the Twins are still in the market for at least one infielder after picking up J.J. Hardy a few weeks ago, and the recent (and early) signings of Chone Figgins (four years, $36 million), Placido Polanco (three years, $18 million) and Marco Scutaro (two years, $12.5 million with an option for more) seem to set the market for starting infielders. Considering the combination of age and history I feel like all three teams overpaid, on either years or dollars or both.

Last season at this time there was a lot of talk surrounding Casey Blake and Garrett Atkins, and there's been nothing quite like that this season. This front office, and I've said it before, plays things notoriously close to the vest. Sure, it might not make for interesting discussion fodder, but it serves the best interests of the team.

A vast majority of the time all of the rumors and speculation lead to absolutely nothing during the week of the Winter Meetings. The common theme is for teams to read each other and, if possible, lay a foundation for things to happen over the following weeks. But that doesn't mean we won't hear some interesting tidbits over the next few days.

Names of Interest (after the break)

Adrian Beltre - With the Phillies signing Polanco, one of the Twins main competetors for the free agent third baseman may have just taken themselves out of the market. The biggest issue surrounding Beltre is Scott Boraas and his $10 million per year asking price. Even for his glove, I'm not sure Minnesota is going to fork out that kind of money for Beltre.

Mark DeRosa - He's also been rumored to be asking for nearly $10 million per season. Yikes.

Josh Johnson - The Marlins have said that Johnson won't be traded this off-season, but it's always hard to tell what's truth and what's posturing. If his name comes up this week, or at anytime over the next couple of months, I'll be listening.

Rich Harden - Along with Ben Sheets and Erik Bedard, it will be interesting to see how much teams are willing to gamble on these guys. Will the Twins maintain their interest in Harden?

Jed Lowrie - With the Red Sox the proud owners of a Scutaro, will he be on the block?

Carl Pavano - Will he accept arbitration?

Dan Uggla - The Marlins second baseman has been linked to about half of the teams in baseball at some point over the last couple of months, although no team has been connected more often than the Giants. His offense as a second baseman is superior, and in spite of his defense is still probably a three-win player.

In Closing

The Winter Meetings this season aren't set to be quite as interesting as they were the last couple of seasons, if only because the first thing on everyone's mind isn't really who else the front office can bring in but who can they sign to an extension. "General discussions" between the Twins and Mauer have begun, but nothing hard core so far, so stay tuned.

It's an exciting time of year. Be sure to keep checking back here for the latest rumblings and grumblings.

Poll

Make the call: what, if anything, will happen this week at the Winter Meetings for the Minnesota Twins?

They'll pull off some kind of a trade

79 votes

They'll lay foundations for discussions after the meetings

127 votes

They'll sign a free agent

57 votes

Nothing

137 votes

400 votes | Poll has closed

I'm Not Asking for Miracles from Marco Scutaro

Ben Buchanan — Fri, 04 Dec 2009 18:52:56 -0000

More photos » by Bill Kostroun - AP

5 months ago: Toronto Blue Jays' Marco Scutaro hits a two-run single during the fourth inning of a baseball game against the New York Yankees, Sunday, July 5, 2009, at Yankee Stadium in New York. The Yankees defeated the Blue Jays 10-8. (AP Photo/Bill Kostroun)

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Last year, Marco Scutaro posted a line of .282/.379/.409, well above his production during any other year of his career to date. Given that this happened at age 34 with a slightly inflated BABIP and an unusually low GB:FB rate, it seems likely that Scutaro will fail to live up to those numbers this year. Bill James, for one, predicts he will regress to a .264/.347/.381 hitter.

And I'm here to tell everyone that that's absolutely fine.

When talking about the shortstop position on this team, one has to temper their expectations. While we would all like to have Hanley back, or be able to pencil Troy Tulowitzki into a lineup, that simply isn't a realistic scenario. What we are confronted with instead is a team which received a .656 OPS from the various men who manned the position last year. One which has had player after player make game-deciding errors.

And what were our options to fix this? J.J. Hardy got snatched up quickly by the Twins. The front office is unwilling to trust Jed Lowrie until he has convinced them he can still hit from the left side. Many seemed downright excited to settle for a defensive-replacement type shortstop and accept a big old hole in the 9-spot again, or to try kooky experimental options which involved sacrificing Dustin Pedroia's extraordinary defense at second by moving him to a position his arm isn't suited for.

If you ask me, that would be settling. Scutaro is not.

What Marco Scutaro brings to the table is average. Not batting average, but just being average. It doesn't sound nice—it's the antithesis of flashy—but it is average at a position where our play has been anything but for the last 5 years. This is a position where Nick Green's random hot streak actually gave us hope.

On offense, Scutaro is not going to kill the ball. If he manages to slug .400 he'll be overachieving. But he does avoid that black-hole designation. While many aspects that contributed to Scutaro's career year are subject to regression, I for one don't believe that his plate discipline is one of them. Scutaro has maintained an OBP over .330 for the last 4 years, and I wouldn't be surprised if it stayed north of .350 this year as he continues to make pitchers work and takes advantage of walks. .379 might be a bit high to maintain, but we don't need that from a #9 hitter. We just need him to be average.

Scutaro's defense should also be, at worst, average. While a cursory glance at his fielding RAR shows inconsistency in the past, Scutaro has spent the last 2500-or-so innings playing average-to-great defense. Going even further in depth, there's definitely a suggestion that Scutaro benefits from consistent playing time. His range at shortstop has never been impressive, only once (2008) breaking into positive numbers. What's made him into an average fielding shortstop of late is that he's not hurting himself via the error, going from .3 runs below average in 2006, to .6 above average in 2007, 1.9 above in 2008, and finally 4.6 above in 2009. What we're left with now is a guy who, while he may not get to every ball, will turn the ones he does get to into outs at a consistent rate. No more frusturation of Renteria or Lugo. No excitement, either. Just consistency.

And who knows, maybe we get lucky. It's worth noting that Marco Scutaro DID post a wOBA of .354 last year. That he was worth 11.2 fielding runs above average in 2008. The potential is there just like it was for, say, a J.J. Hardy. Scutaro can be great like he was last year. He can be worth $20 million where we're only paying him 5. But the important point to take away from it all is that we don't need him to be. Critics of this deal claim Theo is trying to capture lightning in a bottle the way he did with Lugo, but nothing could be further from the truth. Instead, Epstein is trying to put out a 5-year-old wildfire by getting someone we can depend on to be, if nothing else, average.

Braves Sign Billy Wagner, Sox Nab 20th Pick

Ben Buchanan — Wed, 02 Dec 2009 09:08:50 -0000

More photos » by Chris O'Meara - AP

3 months ago: Boston Red Sox pitcher Billy Wagner delivers to Tampa Bay Rays' Carl Crawford during the seventh inning of a baseball game Tuesday, Sept. 1, 2009, in St. Petersburg, Fla. Wagner struck Crawford out. (AP Photo/Chris O'Meara)

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Ken Rosenthal is reporting that Billy Wagner has reached a preliminary agreement to sign with the Braves.

For Sox fans, this is the end of a fairly lengthy drama involving Elias rankings, arbitration, and draft picks. At first it looked like the Sox would have to agree to forgo arbitration and give up the draft picks to finalize the Wagner trade. Then it looked like Wagner might accept arbitration if it was offered.

Things seem to have worked out well for Boston now, though, as Wagner's signing would secure the Sox the Braves' first round pick (number 20) and a supplementary pick between the first 2 rounds. The first rounder is not a sure thing, as the Sox would have to settle for a second rounder if the Braves signed a higher ranked free agent, but they have yet to be linked to any other, bigger names. Essentially, the Sox bought a few late-season innings of Wagner, and turned Chris Carter and Eddie Lora--two prospects entirely unlikely to contribute to the Sox--into first round picks. Not a bad deal.

The Red Sox have acquired quite a bit of talent thanks to compensatory picks over the last 5 years, including Jacoby Ellsbury, Clay Buchholz, Daniel Bard, Jed Lowrie, Michael Bowden, and Nick Hagadone.

Sunday Roundup

Eli Greenspan — Sun, 15 Nov 2009 23:40:41 -0000

More photos » by Gus Ruelas - AP

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Adam McCalvy of MLB.com has a nice story up on the Hot Stove Blog about the J.J. Hardy trade. The Pirates, Reds, and Red Sox all inquired about Hardy, but Melvin rejected the Pirates and Reds' because he preferred to move him out of the division. The Pirates probably were the closest to making a move, but rejected the idea of sending either Zach Duke or Paul Maholm for the shortstop.
Peter Gammons of ESPN.com is reporting that the Red Sox want shortstop Jed Lowrie to start in Triple-A next season after missing most of 2009 recovering from wrist surgery. It'll be interesting to see how Lowrie responds to the move, but long-term it seems like the best move for the young shortstop.
Rock Kubatko of MASN.com wonders if the Orioles will pursue any of the free agents they looked at last season that are now free agents again. Braden Looper, Jon Garland, and Matt Treanor were all discussed in Baltimore, but they never pulled the trigger.
Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe thinks the Mariners are going to be players in the Jason Bay and John Lackey races. If negotiations don't go there way, they could look to move Felix Hernandez; but I don't see them seriously making a move to push him before that.

SBN Baseball Awards: Most Valuable Player

Randy Booth — Thu, 12 Nov 2009 11:00:12 -0000

More photos » by Tom Olmscheid - AP

about 1 month ago: FILE - In this Tuesday, Oct. 6, 2009 file photo, Minnesota Twins catcher Joe Mauer takes a throw as Detroit Tigers' Don Kelly slides home safe during a baseball game in Minneapolis. Catcher Mauer won the 2009 American League Gold Glove Award for fielding excellence on Tuesday Nov. 10, 2009. (AP Photo/Tom Olmscheid)

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The one you've all been waiting for..

...but is there much of a surprise?

Here's one hint to the results: BS.UF is going to be freaking out when he sees one name on this list. And no, his name is not Jed Lowrie.

American League

Rk	Player	Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th	6th	7th	8th	9th	10th	Pts
1	Joe Mauer	Minnesota Twins	24	3	1	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	371
2	Ben Zobrist	Tampa Bay Rays	-	10	6	2	2	1	-	1	-	-	172
3	Mark Teixeira	New York Yankees	2	3	2	4	3	2	7	1	-	-	158
4	Derek Jeter	New York Yankees	1	5	3	4	4	2	1	1	2	1	157
5	Evan Longoria	Tampa Bay Rays	-	2	4	1	2	3	2	3	2	1	106
6	Zack Greinke	Kansas City Royals	2	3	2	1	1	-	2	-	-	-	92
7	Miguel Cabrera	Detroit Tigers	-	-	3	1	2	4	-	2	-	5	74
8	Kevin Youkilis	Boston Red Sox	-	2	-	-	1	3	1	8	1	-	69
9	Chone Figgins	Los Angeles Angels	-	-	-	3	4	1	-	1	3	1	60
10	Jason Bay	Boston Red Sox	-	1	-	4	2	-	-	1	-	2	54
11	Kendry Morales	Los Angeles Angels	-	-	4	-	-	1	-	-	1	-	39
12	Ichiro Suzuki	Seattle Mariners	-	-	1	-	2	-	1	2	2	3	37
13	Franklin Gutierrez	Seattle Mariners	-	-	-	1	1	1	3	-	1	2	34
14	Justin Verlander	Detroit Tigers	-	-	-	2	1	1	1	-	1	1	32
15	Felix Hernandez	Seattle Mariners	-	-	-	2	-	-	1	3	2	-	31
16	Jason Bartlett	Tampa Bay Rays	-	-	1	1	1	-	-	-	-	1	22
17	Alex Rodriguez	New York Yankees	-	-	1	-	1	-	1	-	-	-	18
18	Roy Halladay	Toronto Blue Jays	-	-	-	1	-	1	1	-	-	-	16
19	Adam Lind	Toronto Blue Jays	-	-	-	-	-	2	-	-	1	4	16
20	Dustin Pedroia	Boston Red Sox	-	-	-	-	-	-	1	-	4	1	13
21	Bobby Abreu	Los Angeles Angels	-	-	-	1	-	-	-	1	1	-	12
22	Aaron Hill	Toronto Blue Jays	-	-	-	-	-	1	1	1	-	-	12
23	Mariano Rivera	New York Yankees	-	-	-	-	1	-	-	-	1	1	9
24	Torii Hunter	Los Angeles Angels	-	-	1	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	8
25	Brian Roberts	Baltimore Orioles	-	-	-	-	-	-	1	1	-	-	7
26	CC Sabathia	New York Yankees	-	-	-	-	-	-	1	-	1	-	6
27	Carl Crawford	Tampa Bay Rays	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	1	1	1	6
28	J.D. Drew	Boston Red Sox	-	-	-	-	-	1	-	-	-	-	5
29	Jon Lester	Boston Red Sox	-	-	-	-	-	1	-	-	-	-	5
30	Jonathan Papelbon	Boston Red Sox	-	-	-	-	-	1	-	-	-	-	5
31	Robinson Cano	New York Yankees	-	-	-	-	-	1	-	-	-	-	5
32	Victor Martinez	Boston Red Sox	-	-	-	-	-	1	-	-	-	-	5
33	Michael Cuddyer	Minnesota Twins	-	-	-	-	-	-	1	-	-	-	4
34	Shin-Soo Choo	Cleveland Indians	-	-	-	-	-	-	1	-	-	-	4
35	Michael Young	Texas Rangers	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	1	1	3
36	Jacoby Ellsbury	Boston Red Sox	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	1	-	2
37	Jason Kubel	Minnesota Twins	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	1	-	2
38	Alex Gonzalez	Boston Red Sox	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	1	1
39	Nick Markakis	Baltimore Orioles	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	1	1

Alex Gonzalez? YUP! A lot of Red Sox made this list, surprisingly. Not sure how that happened. OK, fine. E-Coli and I just ran the table. Not sure how my Nomar Garciaparra voted didn't end up here, though...

National League

Rk	Player	Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th	6th	7th	8th	9th	10th	Pts
1	Albert Pujols	St. Louis Cardinals	31	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	434
2	Hanley Ramirez	Florida Marlins	-	6	8	11	2	1	2	-	-	-	220
3	Chase Utley	Philadelphia Phillies	-	7	11	2	3	1	-	1	-	1	192
4	Prince Fielder	Milwaukee Brewers	-	5	4	4	7	7	1	-	-	-	186
5	Troy Tulowitzki	Colorado Rockies	-	4	1	5	2	3	3	4	1	2	134
6	Tim Lincecum	San Francisco Giants	-	4	1	-	1	2	2	3	1	-	79
7	Ryan Howard	Philadelphia Phillies	-	4	-	1	4	1	-	-	3	1	79
8	Ryan Zimmerman	Washington Nationals	-	-	1	3	3	3	3	1	-	2	79
9	Adrian Gonzalez	San Diego Padres	-	-	1	-	3	3	2	4	3	4	71
10	Pablo Sandoval	San Francisco Giants	-	-	-	1	2	2	2	3	4	3	57
11	Matt Kemp	Los Angeles Dodgers	-	-	1	1	1	1	5	3	-	1	56
12	Ryan Braun	Milwaukee Brewers	-	-	2	-	-	2	2	1	1	-	39
13	Chris Carpenter	St. Louis Cardinals	-	-	-	-	2	1	1	-	1	2	25
14	Derrek Lee	Chicago Cubs	-	-	-	-	-	2	1	1	3	2	25
15	Andre Ethier	Los Angeles Dodgers	-	-	-	-	1	2	2	-	-	-	24
16	Adam Wainwright	St. Louis Cardinals	-	-	-	1	-	-	1	1	4	1	23
17	Javier Vazquez	Atlanta Braves	-	-	-	-	-	-	2	1	2	1	16
18	Matt Holliday	St. Louis Cardinals	-	-	1	-	-	-	1	-	-	-	12
19	Joey Votto	Cincinnati Reds	-	1	-	-	-	-	-	-	1	-	11
20	Mark Reynolds	Arizona Diamondbacks	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	2	1	2	10
21	Todd Helton	Colorado Rockies	-	-	-	1	-	-	-	-	-	-	7
22	Jayson Werth	Philadelphia Phillies	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	1	1	1	6
23	Adam Dunn	Washington Nationals	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	1	3	5
24	Juan Pierre	Los Angeles Dodgers	-	-	-	-	-	-	1	-	-	-	4
25	Justin Upton	Arizona Diamondbacks	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	1	-	1	4
26	Raul Ibanez	Philadelphia Phillies	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	1	-	1	4
27	Ubaldo Jimenez	Colorado Rockies	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	1	-	1	4
28	Brian McCann	Atlanta Braves	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	2	-	4
29	Dan Haren	Arizona Diamondbacks	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	2	-	4
30	Michael Bourn	Houston Astros	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	1	-	-	3
31	Yadier Molina	St. Louis Cardinals	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	1	-	-	3
32	Nyjer Morgan	Washington Nationals	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	1	1
33	Yunel Escobar	Atlanta Braves	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	1	1

Pujols somehow pulled out the narrow victory. Solid. We should see the same when the real results are released next week.

Twins Acquire J.J. Hardy

Ben Buchanan — Fri, 06 Nov 2009 17:50:55 -0000

More photos » by Pat Sullivan - AP

Well, there goes that option... (AP Photo/Pat Sullivan)

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The Twins traded Carlos Gomez for the Brewers shorstop earlier today. Hardy, who had seemingly lost his starting position in Milwaukee to upcoming prospect Alcides Escobar, was being tossed around by many as a possible option for the Red Sox next year.

Other options still remain for the Red Sox to either backup Jed Lowrie or platoon with him. Alex Gonzalez would have to give up his starting position and likely have to accept a good deal less than his $6 million option to return. Old friend Alex Cora remains a free agent. And another guy coming off a down season--Mike Aviles--has had his name pop up once or twice.

10/29 - Winter School

bs.uf15bosox9bears23 — Thu, 29 Oct 2009 09:07:38 -0000

Guess what I found? An opportunity for OTM to become one of the most saber-friendly Sox blogs out there!

The International Currency of Baseball - Intro to Sabermetrics 101
Time to start studying up - in fact, here's a whole bunch of other material:

The Value of Walks and Baseball’s "Clock" - Intro to Sabermetrics 101

Intro to Sabermetrics 101: Glossary Sect. 1 - Intro to Sabermetrics 101
Pythag and expectancies

Intro to Sabermetrics 101: Glossary Sect. 2 - Intro to Sabermetrics 101
wOBA, defense, and DIPS (Defense Independent Pitching Statistics)

Intro to Sabermetrics 101: Glossary Sect. 3 - Intro to Sabermetrics 101
Replacement level and WAR

The author of that blog also writes for the SB Nation sabermetric site, Beyond the Boxscore. His work, along with the rest of a small army of writers', are HIGHLY recommended, and I'm not just saying that because we're connected to them (it's not like I get anything of tangible value out of it).

From another site, a link that isn't necessarily sabermetric, but still a good read:

Overreaction Comes in Many Forms - Yawkey Way Academy

Yeah, I'm probably going to be linking to some sites every day - they're just too good to ignore. Besides, some of this stuff needs to be spread; this time it's a reminder not to throw stones while living in glass houses.

That should hold y'all over for a while. If you have a particularly voracious appetite for links, there's some interesting hot stove ideas after the jump.

Jorge Cantu May Be Viable Option For Red Sox Infield Corners Rotation - NESN.com

Fresh idea. Any thoughts?

Trade Market: First Basemen - MLBTradeRumors.com

Bad Contract Swap Meet - MLBTradeRumors.com

Not quite sure I'd lump Papi in with the rest of those, but sure, why not?

Trades Of The Decade: Kazmir For Zambrano - MLBTradeRumors.com

Well, that would have saved us some annoying games. I mean, it's not Kaz would have beaten us in a WS game, right?

The 2009-2010 Offseason: A Critical Juncture for the Boston Red Sox - Bleacher Report

1. Work on an extension with C Victor Martinez and pick up his 2010 option.

2. While he might be the shortstop of the future, Jed Lowrie is not the shortstop of the immediate future.

3. I'm not ready to trade RP Jonathon Papelbon, yet.

4. First base; time for a fresh face?

5. I don't think the Sox need to go nuts in the free-agent market, but one spot where it would be nice to see them spend some cash is right field.

6. Who's the No. 5 starter?

I swear, some of these BR articles - the author forgot Wake for #6, calls JD "servicable", etc. Try not to get in trouble for snickering if you are reading this at work or in school.

Jacoby Ellsbury to left field? Lunacy - Red Sox Monster

Love that people immediately assume something's wrong if it doesn't pass the sniff test. If anyone wants to discuss this again, I'd recommend checking Randy's post about this subject from a few days ago first, so that we're not going in circles.

Root, root, root for New York - Tony Massarotti

Be honest with yourselves, folks. The fire is not burning quite as hot as it once did.

Umm... Pretty sure it still is. Maybe I'm just young and naive, but there's no way I'm rooting for the MFY to win any baseball game against a human team [had to avoid the mistake Surviving Grady made].

Red Sox's Kelly gets in more than at-bats - redsox.com: News

Casey Kelly put together his best AFL performance Wednesday, plating four runs and scoring another in Mesa's 12-5 win over Scottsdale.

DAMMIT

'Team of the Decade' debate heating up - redsox.com: News

I'm going to have to say it's a tie between all three, unless the MFY destroy the Phillies for the rest of the series. No way the Sox win this one though - the MFY have been better for most of the decade, and the Phillies could win because their repeat would still be fresh in the minds of the voters.

Have fun studying the stats side of life; don't worry, they aren't that hard to understand at all. If I manage to get through it with a severe hatred for math, it can't be that bad. Comments, more links, suggestions, questions can all be left here for everyone else to discuss.

Dissecting the Red Sox Roster: Batters

Ben Buchanan — Wed, 28 Oct 2009 21:32:20 -0000

More photos » by Charles Krupa - AP

This man swings a big bat. A very, very big bat. (AP Photo/Charles Krupa)

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Well, this took me a little longer than I expected, but oh well. Continuing in the player-by-player breakdown of who we had in 2009 and what they are to the team in 2010, I give you the batters.

Brian Anderson: Let's start things off easy, shall we? Brian Anderson really brought nothing to this team in 2009. Sure, he had that one really good game against Cleveland when nothing mattered, and his 1.028 OPS is pretty to look at if you ignore how many ABs it took. But he's not a major league player. If he's willing to be stuffed back in the minor leagues, maybe he comes back as very mediocre insurance. But if not, the Sox should have no qualms with dumping the failed prospect.

Rocco Baldelli: Rocco wasn't all that bad as far as a bench bat is concerned. He had a very low OBP, but brought a little pop to the lineup when he was slotted in and finished with a mid-700s OPS. He even played a good center field in limited innings, if his UZR came in below average in the outfield over the year. Ultimately, though, Rocco does not bring any solid reliability to the bench. He's got obvious injury risks, and if you can't rely on a guy to come off the bench and give you a solid AB regardless of how often he plays is not necessarily the guy you want. Unless his price is very low, I expect the Sox will let him walk in favor of someone more reliable.

Jason Bay: Now here's where things get interesting. Let's look at the facts: Jason Bay was a fantastic offensive producer for the Red Sox. He lead American League outfielders in numerous offensive statistics, and was a great middle-of-the-order guy every month but July. Now, it's tempting to just say "sign him"—and I think the Red Sox ultimately will. But I'm not sure that's going to be a good idea. For a team where the goal has long been to exploit the unexploited market and avoid overpaying based on name and hype, Jason Bay seems like exactly the wrong sort of signing: a guy with big numbers where people often look (RBI, HR, and yes, OBP, SLG, and wOBA) but crap numbers where they do not (UZR). If Bay wants to sign with us, he'd better understand that he will have to DH when we ask him to DH.

J.D. Drew: Seriously, for those of you Drew-haters—and I know a few still linger—ask yourselves if you're not a bit too caught up in his 2007 numbers. Last year he was a top-10 outfielder by wOBA, top-3 by OPS. And unlike his similarly offensively gifted outfielder Jason Bay, Drew is a very solid defensive outfielder as well, worth 9.7 runs above replacement, good for 6^th amongst major league right fielders. Is he costly? Yes, but he's a ridiculously good player and worth every penny in '08 and '09. I'm not saying we should resign him after his contract runs out in 2 years, but until then he's an integral part of this team that's probably being underutilized batting 8^th every other game.

Jacoby Ellsbury: There's not a lot left to be said about Jacoby Ellsbury that hasn't already been said here. A seemingly great defensive outfielder due to speed and the occasional flashy dive or leap, Ellsbury's abilities do not hold up well under scrutiny. Bad jumps and poor routes lead him to being one of the worst defensive center fielders by UZR, and offensively the problems are the same as usual: OBP, OBP, OBP. As a leadoff hitter, that number should be higher than it is, though he's made improvements, it's questionable whether that's due to improving skills or a higher BABIP this year. The K% and BB% are moving slowly in the right direction, but to stay in CF he's going to have to improve his defense, and if he wants to make it in left, he's going to need to improve his bat way more than he has so far.

Joey Gathright: He's a good guy to have in the system, but he's not one you want for the long haul. He's not got a bat to be worth a spot on the bench except when you're in the postseason and can expect to be playing your starters every single game and might just need that one key SB. Otherwise, hes' a roster spot best used on a solid all-around player.

Alex Gonzalez: There's gotta be a little bit of emotion involved in the decision making process for those who want to bring the more diminutive A-Gon back. The Red Sox hadn't had a guy let them feel safe on a ball hit to the SS hole for a while, and Gonzalez gave them that for a short time. Add in a few clutch hits, a surprising number of homers, and replacing a combination of Julio Lugo, Nick Green, and Brian Woodward and I'm surprised we haven't had statues going up left and right. But looking at Gonzo's case rationally, he's not at all worth the $6 million option on his contract, and he's probably not a great player to keep on. First off, even his .316 OBP this year with the Sox was very nearly a career high. He is, undoubtedly, a black hole in the lineup. And in the field, while he's good, he's not great and he's not likely to get any better as he gets older. This guy is not a solution to the long-term problem, he is a short-term stopgap who kept Sox fans from tearing out their hair. In his short time with the Sox, Jed Lowrie has shown no signs of driving Sox fans insane with fielding errors, and has the potential to swing a big bat. Pair him with another possible solution (*cough*JJ Hardy*cough*) and see who emerges.

Nick Green: As fun as it was to watch Nick Green go on his early-season hot streak and show remarkable range at short, he's unlikely to reproduce either next year, and so is probably minor-league depth at best for this team.

Casey Kotchman: Another player who just doesn't have a great future with the Sox. There's likely at least one team in the league likely to give him a starting job at first, and he never seemed to get his bat going even to his usual levels as a bench player. While he's got a great glove at first, that's just not the greatest use of a bench spot, especially if we can employ a late-inning defensive unit with Jed at 3^rd, Youk at 1^st, and hopefully a good defensive backup/platoon SS. Send him on his way and see if we can't get some value for him.

George Kottaras: Bad bat, mediocre defensive catcher, and with Mark Wagner throwing out guys left and right and flashing a bat again, he may well have missed his window with the Sox. Sorry, Kott.

Mike Lowell: To say Mike has been disappointing since signing his contract in the 2007-2008 offseason would probably be an understatement. .274/.338/.461 and .290/.337/.474 are not lines worth $12 million, especially not when paired with defense befitting a cripple. However, there's reason to be encouraged. Even with limited starts, Lowell put up pretty good numbers in July and August before disappearing in September, and started to show signs of being the old defensive Lowell as the season came to a close. The ability to be the old Mike Lowell is still there, and hopefully with more consistent playing time (with Martinez taking over at catcher, Youk will be staying at first a lot more) and a healed hip, Mike could flash us some of the old magic in what will almost certainly be his last year with the Red Sox.

Jed Lowrie: If the wrist is healthy, he should be our starting shortstop. The defense is there, the offense should by all accounts be there with a well-repaired wrist—there's no evidence of significant discrepancies in his L/R splits in the minors. I still think he's our shortstop of the future.

Victor Martinez: I'll admit that I got this guy wrong. He came into Fenway and produced. But that doesn't change that he's not an impressive defensive catcher, which is the position he's going to have to fill more often than not next year. Hopefully, his position splits fall more in line with his pre-'09 numbers instead of his clearly first base heavy ones from last year. Otherwise, while he won't be Varitek bad, the upgrade isn't going to be as big as we expect.

David Ortiz: Perhaps the biggest single question mark on the Red Sox going into 2010 is Big Papi. Obviously, he is on the decline. Obviously, he's not due for a big contract in 2011 if any at all. And obviously, so long as he doesn't somehow find his way into pin stripes, he's due to go down as one of the all-time Sox if only for his contributions in '07 and especially '04. But next year anything could happen. While Ortiz ended the season with an OPS of .794, he put up a 1.062 OPS in June, .845 in July, .825 in August, and .947 in September. But when that's being so strongly offset by the slow starts he's had for the last few years, it's hard to justify keeping him consistently at DH. Papi needs to figure out what it is that's making him start slow (not exactly the sign of an aging guy who would tend to break down over the course of the season) over the offseason, and FIX IT. More prep, less prep, I don't know, but if he fixes it, the Sox could pull a huge weapon out of nowhere.

Or he could just continue to disappear.

Dustin Pedroia: Not much to this one. He's our guy at second base for the foreseeable future. Huge defense, great on base capabilities, and with the ability to show a little sneaky pop. After putting up an MVP season in 2008, Pedroia seemed to regress a little in 2009, but I wouldn't expect that to continue at all. In fact, I'd expect him to get better in a lot of ways. After BABIPs of .334 and .336 in '07 and '08, Petey posted a .300 in '09. He had a little bit of a GB/FB shift, and maybe swung for the fences a bit too much when he had only a couple dingers midway through the year. If Petey can get back to playing his game, he could easily jump back over the .850 OPS mark.

Jason Varitek: As much as I love the captain for all he's done, it's time to call it quits. Tek is not currently worth a roster spot. He doesn't have the offense to be a full-time catcher, or the defense to be a backup. Plus his presence will likely just make it harder to get the pitchers in synch with Martinez and whoever ends up backing him up next season. If he insists on picking up the player's option, pay him his 3 million and cut him loose. I hope he ends up as a coach with us someday, but there's just no justification to waste a spot on him.

Chris Woodward: A guy with no redeeming qualities. Awful defense, awful offense...Don't even stick him in Pawtucket, just cut him.

Kevin Youkilis: After the dramatic improvement between '07 and '08, Sox fans would've been completely justified in wondering if this late-blooming Youk was for real. .843 OPS is acceptable at 3^rd, or 1^st with great defense. .959 OPS with great defense at the corners? That's MVP stuff. .312/.390/.569 became .305/.413/.548, and Sox fans were reassured. Kevin Youkilis is THE middle-of-the-lineup guy for the Red Sox. He may not his tons of homers, but he's going to produce. Youk's extension was clearly a good buy now.

By the way, did anyone else realize he had 7 steals last year? Go figure. Nice little tidbit to end the article on.

The Dirty Water Filter, 10/14 - Changing It Out for A New Year

bs.uf15bosox9bears23 — Wed, 14 Oct 2009 09:00:32 -0000

by Jim Prisching - AP

Thanks for not doing this, Gonzo.

View full size photo »

First things first - thanks to Bloggy for the new name idea. And now, as payment:

Red Sox Likely To Watch Alex Gonzalez Walk, Jason Varitek Return - NESN.com

These should probably be flipped. As much as I love Jed, no one is 100% certain that he can come back (more on this is a second), even as a lesser player than we would expect. Gonzo somehow managed to destroy all rational predictions and give the Sox several runs of production above replacement. He was able to stretch what appeared to be normal variation into a relatively high level of play, something we could not have expected when we resorted to trading for him.

There's no one else really available that can provide the safety net that Gonzo can, so I can't see a reason why the Front Office doesn't try to resign him, albeit without the option (unless that vested without my noticing or something).

The other part of this story is that Tek is supposed to be coming back - well, I have some bad news:

2009 Catcher Defense: Filling in the Holes (yet again) - Driveline Mechanics

A certain catcher is WAY down on that list. Vic is managing to break roughly even, but that would likely not be the case if he was asked to catch too often. Now, for more bad news:

Jed Lowrie: Wait ’til next year - BostonHerald.com

"It really depends on what the doctor says," Lowrie said. "I don’t know what the surgery would be if there were to be one, but I guess it’s not out of the question."

Time to defend'em: Of course it's possible - it's also possible that every single player on the Sox catches swine flu, drinks gallons of tequila in some Paps-led attempt to flush their system, and puke all over the floor of the clubhouse, killing an ant that managed to find it's way in. See, Jed? THAT's what you're supposed to say - oh, and bring one of those Neurolyzers to wipe their memory if they start writing anything down. Can't trust the media anymore, kid.

After the jump, we get slightly less random and look at next year. Not much else to do now anyways.

Shades of 2006 coming should scare Red Sox fans - Red Sox Monster

NG, keep your hands where we can see them. Also, I propose a game: everytime NG mentions "2006" this offseason, we have to quote a movie; which is up to you. Should be interesting.

David Mamet and Surviving Grady Present: Glengarry Glen Sox

It'd be funnier if it was right - like, not using 3 games to determine if we should resign Bay - but it's still pretty funny.

Lowrie has something to prove - The Boston Globe

Theo lays down the law on Dice-K - Extra Bases

"We want him to have a really productive offseason and come into camp in the best possible shape," Epstein said. "We can notice right away that he’s had a strong offseason of workouts. And then also with his shoulder. That he does the shoulder program to an extent that he’s ready to go out and throw 200-plus innings. Those are things he didn’t accomplish last year.

Wagner’s agent doubts talk of retirement - Clubhouse Insider

"Those comments probably came right after the Red Sox lost, so I’d bet they were said in the heat of the moment, when he was very frustrated," said Stringfellow a few minutes ago over the phone. "That’s probably not the best time to take comments like that as gospel."

Red Sox contracts - BostonHerald.com

Sox’ Expiring Contracts - Fire Brand of the American League

In case some of you hadn't discovered Cot's yet, or choose not to refer to them - weirdos.

Steve Phillips: Red Sox Should Trade Jonathan Papelbon - NESN.com

Damn, it just got a whole lot harder to argue for trading him.

I still LIKE Jonathan Papelbon. There. I said it. - Fenway West

Spike TV Names Red Sox Fans #3 Most Annoying Fans In Sports - Masshole Sports

Dane Cook =/= funny. And I promise, there's no reason I put these last three links together.

Anything that we missed ("got through the Filter"? Ooh...) or you want to share? We accept all major brands of links here. Or, you can write out a comment. Ya know - your choice.