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First Half Minors Recap Part 1: Pawtucket and Portland

Ben Buchanan — Tue, 23 Jun 2009 13:00:22 -0000

Portland Sea Dog and top prospect Lars Anderson's slow start has headlined an up-and-down Sea Dogs lineup. Via i225.photobucket.com

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The end of June marks the halfway point in the season for the upper levels of the minor leagues, and the starting point of short-season ball. For the A-level teams (Salem and Greenville), it also represents a fresh start, as the records are reset and the team with the best record to that point is granted a post-season berth. As significant a milestone as this is, it makes sense to use it as a time to look back at the season thus far, and for teams like the Lowell Spinners and GCL Red Sox, the season to come.

At the top of the Red Sox farm system, the Pawtucket Red Sox has been all about the pitching. Filled primarily with insurance guys who would play in case of injuries in the main club, the lineup is solid but largely uninteresting. Early backups Chris Carter and Jeff Bailey provided mostly frustration for Sox fans, and Aaron Bates is a relatively recent addition. The rotation and bullpen, on the other hand, have stolen the show.

Though their torrid starts have slowed some, Clay Buchholz and Michael Bowden have done everything and more to prove they are ready for the big leagues—particularly Buchholz, whose complete game 1-hitter has highlighted a dominant season. Clay sports a 1.93 ERA, a .172 batting average against, and a 69:22 K:BB ratio which is actually marred by his last 3 games, over which he's given up 10 bases on balls. Bowden, though at first putting up better numbers than even Buchholz, has been brought back to Earth by a 4 inning, 6-run effort to start June off, and a 1 inning disaster giving up six earned runs again. Still, a 3.26 ERA is nothing to sneeze at.

The bullpen has been an unsung treasure for Pawtucket. While the big name in Daniel Bard has left to find his place in the crowded Boston bullpen, he leaves behind a ridiculous 29 strikeouts in 16 innings—one of them immaculate—and a 1.13 ERA.

Picking up the slack are a pair of journeymen castoffs from the Baltimore Orioles in Fernando Cabrera and Rocky Cherry. Cherry's 24:17 K:BB ratio in 33 innings and his WHIP of 1.29 suggest his 1.35 ERA is somewhat lucky, but Cabrera has been nothing but impressive. After struggling with control last year, Cabrera has only walked 11 in 32 innings while striking out 33. His 19 hits bring his WHIP up to a paltry .94.

Other notables in the pen are Hunter Jones, who had an unimpressive stint with Boston during Daisuke's first DL trip, and Javier Lopez who seemed to fall off a cliff after an impressive 2008 campaign and has had trouble even in AAA.

Unfortunately for Pawtucket, the experienced lineup and impressive pitching hasn't quite got them in the postseason yet, sitting 4.5 games back of the perennial powerhouse Scranton/Wilkes-Barre Yankees, and a game back in the wild card race.

If Pawtucket is the system's pitching powerhouse, than Portland is where you'll find the offense. Josh Reddick, Lars Anderson, and Ryan Kalish are all top-10 prospects in the system with Anderson leading the way, and catcher Mark Wagner has been having a spectacular year offensively and defensively. But where everything seems to be going right for Wagner, the other 3 have all faced growing pains.

Lars Anderson was mired in a well-documented slump resulting in a particularly bad May (.194/.318/.376), and while he seems to've come out of it somewhat in June, his numbers have dipped again somewhat and he's not really outperforming his April numbers by that much. Josh Reddick got off to a fantastic start, clobbering 6 home runs in April en route to a line of .288/.358/.644, but missed all of may with an injury and hasn't found his groove yet. He's yet to hit another home run, and is only hitting .239/.255/.304 on the month. Ryan Kalish is also seeing depressed numbers after a fantastic start. Never really a big-power guy, Kalish put on a show in 32 games in Salem,hitting 5 home runs in 32 games and accruing a .504 slugging percentage. Kalish experienced the typical post-promotion slump, and managed an OPS of only .445 while striking out in around 30% of his plate appearances with Portland in May. Kalish has showed significant signs of improvement, however, posting a .738 OPS in June with a .355 OBP, striking out only 5 times so far.

Wagner has also hit something of a road bump in June, which could be considered regression to the mean for him. A .321/.371/.434 line is by no means disappointing for the month, though, and Wagner still appears to be on the fast track to AAA. The former pitcher is also still throwing out about 70% of base stealers.

Other notables in Portland's lineup include Jorge Jimenez, who has returned to Earth somewhat after a stellar April, Bubba Bell who was recently promoted to Pawtucket, and Argenis Diaz who is in the middle of a very disappointing season and not showing any signs of coming out of it.

The pitching staff in Portland is limited to essentially 2 names: Junichi Tazawa and Felix Doubront. Though both are currently on the DL, these appear to be phantom injuries basically intended to rest the pair for a week or so. Tazawa is currently sporting a 2.92 ERA after getting off to a slow start against the more advanced MiLB competition, and seems to be less walk-happy than a certain countryman of his, keeping his BB/9 below 3 while striking out a tad unde 9 per. Tazawa's ceiling is still questionable, but as of right now there's no reason not to think he can pitch in the majors some day.

Doubront has managed to survive and eke out a 3.19 ERA despite 50 hits and 23 walks in 53 innings. A high strikeout total has contributed to that likely as much as a 1.26 GO:AO ratio, as has a relatively low home run count of 4. Whether he can keep it up or not is definitely in question.

The lack of consistency in the lineup, as well as mediocre contributions from most of the rotation and bullpen has led the Sea Dogs to a 32-36 record, 6.5 games back of the division-leading Connecticut defenders. It seems they're unlikely to improve on it, too, with one of their best batters, Aaron Bates, having been promoted and with Mark Wagner not far behind. Even Tazawa might not be too far from a Pawtucket trip depending on the fates of Buchholz and Bowden. Then again, the big names in the lineup will hopefully not be held down for long, and a resurgent offense could be enough.

The Pawtucket Red Sox Roster Crunch

Ben Buchanan — Tue, 16 Jun 2009 11:08:01 -0000

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For some, it's just a stop on the way to the majors. For others, it has been home for years. With a surge of new talent on the way from the Portland Sea Dogs, Boston's AAA-affiliate Pawtucket Red Sox are about to have a major roster shake-up.

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When doing Minor Lines on an average night, Pawtucket is the least interesting team to look at. The notable names on offense, up till the promotion of Aaron Bates, were all guys who were likely to be bench players at best in their career. Chris Carter, Dusty Brown, Jeff Bailey, Jonathan Van Every. Talented ball players who often rank amongst the elite at AAA, but can't seem to take the next step and enter the world of the Majors.

Portland, on the other hand, is perhaps the most interesting team. Lars Anderson and Josh Reddick were the obvious standouts coming into the year. Wagner has exploded onto the scene with Aaron Bates. Ryan Kalish was promoted after only a month in Salem to start the year, and has slowly but surely begun to adapt to the tougher competition (.308/.325/.385 in June vs. .133/.212/.233 in May). Even less noticeable guys have performed, as 26-year-old Bubba Bell was promoted to Pawtucket today.

When a player is promoted in the minor leagues, much like in the Majors, there always has to be a counter move. Someone has to be traded, released, sent to the DL, promoted or demoted in order to make space. With such a large wave of players having legitimate shots at Pawtucket, and such a large amount of guys seemingly stuck at AAA, the Red Sox are faced with an obvious problem. Who stays, who goes, and what do we do with those who go?

Dusty Brown and Carlos Maldonado share duties behind the plate. They both share similar skill sets—good defensively, mediocre offensively—but Maldonado is a 30-year-old recent signing while Dusty Brown is a 26-year-old who has spent the last 8 years in the Red Sox farm system. Brown could also possibly carry some value down the line as a backup catcher once Wakefield decides to hang up his glove, so when Mark Wagner inevitably comes knocking, expect Maldonado to get the boot.

If Jorge Jimenez makes the jump sooner rather than later, the Sox will have an interesting choice. The PawSox have 3 players who can all play 2B, SS, and 3B in Gil Velazquez, Angel Chavez, and Travis Denker. Velazquez and Chavez are similar players. Both are older (29 and 27 respectively) with good gloves and mediocre bats. Chavez is better offensively, while Velazquez can also play all outfield positions. Travis Denker is something of a defensive liability, but is only 23 and has a somewhat better bat. The organization will probably elect to keep Denker due to his age and offense, but the choice between Chavez and Velazquez is harder. With the value the Sox put on versatility in the minor leagues, though, Velazquez seems to have an edge up.

The most crowded positions, though, are the 1B/DH and Outfield positions. Pawtucket currently rotates a trio of Jeff Bailey, Aaron Bates, and Paul McAnulty through the corner outfield and 1B positions with Jeff Natale, Freddy Guzman, and Chris Carter (usually at the DH) getting occasional turns. Currently on the DL, Zach Daeges and Jonathan Van Every are also often slotted in. Sometime next year, though, it's not at all unlikely that a majority of these spots will be filled by players currently in Portland. Lars Anderson and Josh Reddick will replace Jeff Bailey and Paul McAnulty in the starting group. Kalish will take over at center field, with Reddick seeing some starts there too.

If the Sox think they can get value for any of the guys currently in the group, they'll likely ship them off. Jeff Bailey, Chris Carter, and Jonathan Van Every are the most familiar names on the list, and the ones most likely to get some small returns. On the other hand, they're also the ones most likely to start the year with the Major League club. Depending on the future of Rocco Baldelli, Nick Green, Julio Lugo, and Mark Kotsay (not to mention David Ortiz), the Red Sox could quickly find themselves in need of a new 4^th outfielder or backup middle infielder. Bubba Bell would likely be one of the top candidates for a trade. It seems Bailey and Carter might again be fighting for a job next season, but without a spot at Pawtucket to fall back on. And if the Sox resign any of their current backups or add a few veterans in the offseason, then there could be no room for anyone.

Over the last few years, Pawtucket has stagnated a little. Aside from a few major players moving up (Pedroia, Ellsbury, Lowrie), there has been an established core of AAAA position players who every so often get their shot at a cup of coffee. Now, the core seems destined to be broken up. Already, Chip Ambres was traded to the Mets and Sandy Madera was released. For some, the change will mean new opportunities. Whether with the Red Sox or another team, some of them certainly have the ability to at least be major league backups. For others, it will be just another move in a long series of moves in their long minor league careers. And for some more it may just be the end of the road. But for the Red Sox, it will mean a vast well of talent on the very edge of the making the Majors, and a much more interesting PawSox box score.