SB Nation - Ricky Romero

Just Dropped in to See What Condition My Condition is In: Who Moves Up, Who Moves Down on our Prospect List

Tom Dakers — Thu, 12 Nov 2009 22:48:37 -0000

As a start towards re-doing our prospect list I thought we'd take a look at the guys on our current list and see which ones improved their status with the team and which ones likely dropped back or right off the prospect list. Then we can start looking at who should be on the new list.

I'll list the players in the spots they are at on our current list, which was put together about this time last year.

1.Travis Snider. Snider got 241 major league at bats, in which he hit .241/.331/.430, not great but not bad considering he was just 21, the 6^th youngest player in the AL. He also had 175 at bats at Triple-A Las Vegas hitting a terrific .337/.431/.663 there. Clearly he wasn't one of Cito's favourites, which puts him in a class with Shawn Green and Carlos Delgado, who have roughly 800 major league home runs between them, so not exactly bad company. If you consider Travis a prospect still, he didn't do much to hurt his status as our number one prospect, but I figure we will graduate him off the prospects list and consider him a major leaguer now. It is always possibly that Cito will decide he's not ready for the majors, this spring, and give his at bats to someone like Kevin Millar. Then, he'd be a prospect and a darn good one still, considering he'd just be 22 years old. But, please Cito, play him every day next year.

2. Brett Cecil. Cecil got 17 major league starts last season, going 7-4 with a 5.30 ERA. Not great, not terrible. He was just 22 years old, so still pretty young for a lefty starter. He pitched another 49 innings in Vegas going 1-5 there with a 5.69 ERA. He was moved to the majors before we likely would have liked him to be, with all the injuries we had to the starting staff. If you consider him a prospect still, he's still a good one, just 23 next year. He'd likely be moved down a few spots on our list, but we'll likely ‘graduate' him off the prospect list.

3. J.P. Arencibia. J.P. did not have the season we hoped he'd have. Promoted to Triple-A, he hit just .236/.284/.444 with 21 homers. I guess calling him a Rod Barajas type would be fair, nice power, low average, wouldn't take a walk if his life depended on it. He'll likely move down some on our list, but he's still a decent prospect. He'll be 24 next year so he can't afford another season like this one, but several good players need two years at Triple-A to find their way.

4. David Cooper. In just his second year of pro ball he was moved up to Double-A New Hampshire. It didn't go well, .258/.340/.389. I would think they will start him at Double-A again and hope he moves up quick. He is just 22 and just 2 years removed from college ball, so there is time to right the ship, but I'd expect he'll be dropped several spots down on our next list. Can't write off a guy at his age though.

5. Justin Jackson. Justin moved up to high-A Dunedin to start this year. It didn't go well, he hit .213/.321/.239 and he missed some time with a ‘frayed labrum'. He's still young, just 20 this past year and has good speed (17 steals), can take a walk (39 in 249 at bats) and his defence looks good. He has got the tools, just has to make it all work. We got to see him a few times in spring training and he didn't look out of place. All that said, he likely to move down a few spots on our list. I'm not sure that I don't think Tyler Pastornicky is a better prospect in the long run.

6. Kevin Ahrens. Continuing our list of prospects that disappointed this year, Kevin was moved up to high-A Dunedin for this season and forgot to bring his bat, hitting just .215/.282/.302. Again just 20 and knows how to take a walk but we really would have liked better from him. He'll likely drop several spots on the prospect list. Don't totally write him off at 20 but he's going to have to pick it up next year.

7. Scott Campbell. A personal favourite, he played in Dunedin, New Hamshire and Las Vegas this year and really didn't take a step forward, .272/.368/.356. He started slow then got injured when it looked like he was turning things around. Pretty much a lost year for him. The Jays tried him at 3B some this year, which I don't understand at all, he doesn't have the power for a corner infield spot. I'd give him a mulligan because of the injuries but he was 24 last season, so it is tough to see him as a prospect unless he does something terrific in spring training. Alex Anthopoulos obviously doesn't think too much of him since he's picked up a couple of middle infield types in the past few weeks off waivers: Mike McCoy and Jarrett Hoffpauir. Much as I like Campbell, I can't see him being on the next prospects list.

8. Brad Mills. Brad made a couple of starts for us back in June when virtually every other starting pitcher in our system was hurt. They didn't go well. He made 14 starts in Triple-A Vegas going just 2-8 but with a decent (for the Pacific Coast League) ERA of 4.06. He had a good strikeout to walk rate 35 walks to 72 strikeouts. He had a good spring training with us, he was in the running for a opening day rotation spot, right up until the end. He gives up more fly balls (and therefore homers) than you would like to see. And he will be 25 next season, not old for a lefty starter but time is running out. I think he'll move a few spots down on our prospect list but with luck and work could make the rotation.

9. Ricky Romero. He's graduated off the prospect list. I think I argued that he shouldn't be so high on our list last year. Shows what I know. He is 25 next year and I'd like to have the paychecks he has in his future.

10. John Tolisano. Like fellow 20 year olds Jackson and Ahrens, John played at Dunedin last year and did not do well, hitting .232/.305/.379. Like the other two, he knows how to take a walk and is young enough to overcome it. He did show some power (12 homers) and wasn't doing too bad before just a horrible August that hurt his numbers. That said, he's got good power for a 2B and is young enough to bounce back from this year, but he'll be moved back on our prospect list.

We'll look at the guys that were 11-20 on our list in the next couple of days and 21-30 soon after that. Then we'll take a look at ones that could jump on our next list.

A boatload of postseason awards

KLSnow — Wed, 11 Nov 2009 18:41:50 -0000

Because I've been away for a few days I've fallen behind on a couple of things, including the unveiling of the SBN and IBWAA postseason awards. My apologies. Let's start with the SBN Awards:

If you read any of the other SBN baseball sites, you may have seen some of these, but if you don't, they're new to you. Two BCB writers contributed to each of the NL awards: I had one vote, and TheJay had the other. I'll publish my ballot below the results, and leave it up to TheJay to decide if he wants to post his.

SBN NL Manager of the Year:

Rk	Manager	Team	1st	2nd	3rd	Pts
1	Jim Tracy	Colorado Rockies	24	1	2	125
2	Tony LaRussa	St. Louis Cardinals	3	7	10	46
3	Fredi Gonzalez	Florida Marlins	2	6	5	33
4	Joe Torre	Los Angeles Dodgers	-	9	2	29
5	Charlie Manuel	Philadelphia Phillies	-	3	5	14
6	Bruce Bochy	San Francisco Giants	1	1	1	9
7	Bobby Cox	Atlanta Braves	-	1	4	7
8	Bud Black	San Diego Padres	-	1	1	4
9	John Russell	Pittsburgh Pirates	-	1	-	3

My ballot:
1. Jim Tracy
2. Fredi Gonzalez
3. Joe Torre

I have no other comment on this award, except this side note: Nine of sixteen NL Managers received at least one vote, meaning more NL managers were acknowledged than not, and yet Ken Macha didn't appear on a single ballot.

SBN NL Rookie of the Year:

Rk	Player	Team	1st	2nd	3rd	Pts
1	Tommy Hanson	Atlanta Braves	9	9	6	78
2	J.A. Happ	Philadelphia Phillies	6	9	7	64
3	Andrew McCutchen	Pittsburgh Pirates	8	3	5	54
4	Chris Coghlan	Florida Marlins	7	5	4	54
5	Dexter Fowler	Colorado Rockies	-	3	1	10
6	Randy Wells	Chicago Cubs	-	-	6	6
7	Garrett Jones	Pittsburgh Pirates	1	-	-	5
8	Casey McGehee	Milwaukee Brewers	-	1	2	5
9	Seth Smith	Colorado Rockies	-	1	-	3

My ballot:
1. Tommy Hanson
2. J.A. Happ
3. Casey McGehee

It was a tough year to be an NL Rookie - McGehee's performance might have rated higher in other years, but this season he was overshadowed by a bunch of high-impact players.

SBN NL Cy Young:

Rk	Player	Team	1st	2nd	3rd	Pts
1	Tim Lincecum	San Francisco Giants	18	13	-	129
2	Chris Carpenter	St. Louis Cardinals	9	4	7	64
3	Adam Wainwright	St. Louis Cardinals	4	4	10	42
4	Javier Vazquez	Atlanta Braves	-	5	7	22
5	Dan Haren	Arizona Diamondbacks	-	3	4	13
6	Ubaldo Jimenez	Colorado Rockies	-	1	1	4
7	Cliff Lee	Philadephia Phillies	-	-	1	1
8	Jair Jurrjens	Atlanta Braves	-	-	1	1

My ballot:
1. Tim Lincecum
2. Javier Vazquez
3. Adam Wainwright
4. Chris Carpenter
5. Dan Haren

The SBN ballot only asked for three pitchers, but I also voted in the IBWAA awards, which required five. The IBWAA completed their slate of awards today, naming their MVP and Cy Young Award winners for both leagues. Here are their results:

IBWAA NL Manager of the Year:

1. Jim Tracy, Colorado Rockies
2. Joe Torre, Los Angeles Dodgers
3 (tie). Bruce Bochy, San Francisco Giants
3 (tie). Fredi Gonzalez, Florida Marlins

IBWAA NL Rookie of the Year:

1. Tommy Hanson, Atlanta Braves
2. Chris Coghlan, Florida Marlins
3. J.A. Happ, Philadelphia Phillies

IBWAA NL Comeback Player of the Year:

1. Chris Carpenter, St. Louis Cardinals
2. Troy Tulowitzski, Colorado Rockies
3. Rafael Furcal, Los Angeles Dodgers

IBWAA NL Executive of the Year:

1. Dan O'Dowd, Colorado Rockies
2. John Mozeliak, St. Louis Cardinals
3. Ned Colletti, Los Angeles Dodgers

IBWAA NL Cy Young:

1. Chris Carpenter, St. Louis Cardinals
2. Adam Wainwright, St. Louis Cardinals
3. Tim Lincecum, San Francisco Giants
4. Josh Johnson, Florida Marlins
5. Javier Vazquez, Atlanta Braves

IBWAA NL Most Valuable Player:

1. Albert Pujols, St. Louis Cardinals
2. Ryan Howard, Philadelphia Phillies
3. Hanley Ramirez, Florida Marlins
4. (tie) Prince Fielder, Milwaukee Brewers
4. (tie) Troy Tulowitzki, Colorado Rockies
6. Tim Lincecum, San Francisco Giants
7. Chase Utley, Philadelphia Phillies
8. Andre Ethier, Los Angeles Dodgers
9. Chris Carpenter, St. Louis Cardinals
10. Ryan Braun, Milwaukee Brewers

The SBN MVP award balloting will be unveiled tomorrow. Follow the jump for the AL awards for both SBN and the IBWAA.

IBWAA Cy Young and MVP Awards have yet to be announced.

Meanwhile, in the AL:

SBN AL Manager of the Year:

Rk	Manager	Team	1st	2nd	3rd	Pts
1	Mike Scioscia	Los Angeles Angels	9	8	3	72
2	Ron Gardenhire	Minnesota Twins	9	5	1	61
3	Don Wakamatsu	Seattle Mariners	6	3	8	47
4	Joe Girardi	New York Yankees	2	4	2	24
5	Ron Washington	Texas Rangers	1	4	4	21
6	Terry Francona	Boston Red Sox	1	1	3	11
7	Jim Leyland	Detroit Tigers	-	2	4	10
8	Joe Maddon	Tampa Bay Rays	-	1	1	4
9	Ozzie Guillen	Chicago White Sox	-	-	1	1
10	Trey Hillman	Kansas City Royals	-	-	1	1

SBN AL Rookie of the Year:

Rk	Player	Team	1st	2nd	3rd	Pts
1	Elvis Andrus	Texas Rangers	6	9	6	63
2	Andrew Bailey	Oakland Athletics	11	1	3	61
3	Jeff Niemann	Tampa Bay Rays	3	5	3	33
4	Rick Porcello	Detroit Tigers	2	7	2	33
5	Brett Anderson	Oakland Athletics	5	1	3	31
6	Gordon Beckham	Chicago White Sox	1	2	8	19
7	Nolan Reimold	Baltimore Orioles	1	-	1	6
8	Matt Wieters	Baltimore Orioles	-	1	3	6
9	Brad Bergesen	Baltimore Orioles	-	1	-	3
10	Ricky Romero	Toronto Blue Jays	-	1	-	3
11	Travis Snider	Toronto Blue Jays	-	1	-	3

SBN AL Cy Young:

Rk	Player	Team	1st	2nd	3rd	Pts
1	Zack Greinke	Kansas City Royals	28	1	-	143
2	Felix Hernandez	Seattle Mariners	-	17	6	57
3	Justin Verlander	Detroit Tigers	-	8	9	33
4	Roy Halladay	Toronto Blue Jays	1	2	11	22
5	C.C. Sabathia	New York Yankees	-	1	2	5
6	Jon Lester	Boston Red Sox	-	-	1	1

IBWAA AL Manager of the Year:
1. Ron Gardenhire, Minnesota Twins
2. Mike Scioscia, Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
3. Joe Girardi (New York Yankees)

IBWAA AL Rookie of the Year:
1. Elvis Andrus, Texas Rangers
2. Andrew Bailey, Oakland Athletics
3. Jeff Niemann, Tampa Bay Rays

IBWAA AL Comeback Player of the Year:
1. Aaron Hill, Toronto Blue Jays
2. Russell Branyan, Seattle Mariners
3. Justin Verlander, Detroit Tigers

IBWAA AL Executive of the Year:
1. Brian Cashman, New York Yankees
2. Tony Reagins, Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
3. Jon Daniels, Texas Rangers

IBWAA AL Cy Young:
1. Zack Greinke, Kansas City Royals
2. Felix Hernandez, Seattle Mariners
3. CC Sabathia, New York Yankees
4. Justin Verlander, Detroit Tigers
5. Roy Halladay, Toronto Blue Jays

IBWAA AL Most Valuable Player:
1. Joe Mauer, Minnesota Twins
2. Mark Teixeira, New York Yankees
3. Derek Jeter, New York Yankees
4. Kendry Morales, Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
5. Miguel Cabrera, Detroit Tigers
6. Zack Greinke, Kansas City Royals
7. Evan Longoria, Tampa Bay Rays
8. Ichiro Suzuki, Seattle Mariners
9. (tie) Carl Crawford, Tampa Bay Rays
9. (tie) Kevin Youkilis, Boston Red Sox

SB Nation Awards: 2009 American League Rookie of the Year

Jesse — Tue, 10 Nov 2009 20:16:21 -0000

Next round of the year's awards!

Rk	Player	Team	1st	2nd	3rd	Pts
1	Elvis Andrus	Texas Rangers	6	9	6	63
2	Andrew Bailey	Oakland Athletics	11	1	3	61
3	Jeff Niemann	Tampa Bay Rays	3	5	3	33
4	Rick Porcello	Detroit Tigers	2	7	2	33
5	Brett Anderson	Oakland Athletics	5	1	3	31
6	Gordon Beckham	Chicago White Sox	1	2	8	19
7	Nolan Reimold	Baltimore Orioles	1	-	1	6
8	Matt Wieters	Baltimore Orioles	-	1	3	6
9	Brad Bergesen	Baltimore Orioles	-	1	-	3
10	Ricky Romero	Toronto Blue Jays	-	1	-	3
11	Travis Snider	Toronto Blue Jays	-	1	-	3

I feel pretty good about these results too because, if I remember correctly, I voted pretty closely here too. I want to say I went Andrus-Bailey-Porcello. Beckham's year was underwhelming, Wieters was disappointing considering the hype and, as the tally shows, there were really only two choices for top pick.

My only question: RICK PORCELLO IS JUST 20 YEARS OLD!

Okay, so it's not a question...

Poll

Of the top five, who would get your vote for AL Rookie of the Year?

Elvis Andrus, SS, 20 yrs, 541 PA, 17 2B, 6 HR, 33/39 SB, .267/.329/.373

57 votes

Andrew Bailey, CL, 25 yrs, 83.1 IP, 91 K, 1.84 ERA, 0.88 WHIP

58 votes

Jeff Niemann, SP, 26 yrs, 30 GS, 180.2 IP, 125 K, 3.94 ERA, 1.35 ERA

9 votes

Rick Porcello, SP, 20 yrs, 31 GS, 170.2 IP, 89 K, 3.96 ERA, 1.34 WHIP

69 votes

Brett Anderson, SP, 21 yrs, 30 GS, 175.1 IP, 150 K, 4.06 ERA, 1.28 WHIP

17 votes

210 votes | Poll has closed

2009 SBNation Awards: Rookie Of The Year

Al — Tue, 10 Nov 2009 14:00:40 -0000

by Nam Y. Huh - AP

Randy Wells had a fine rookie year and finished sixth in SBN rookie balloting.

View full size photo »

Count me as one of those surprised at the SBN Rookie of the Year balloting. Neither J.A. Happ nor Chris Coghlan, the two players named at the top of the BCB ballots, won. Tommy Hanson is a deserving recipient, no doubt, but I was sure that Happ was going to win. The third-place vote I gave Randy Wells is, admittely, a homer pick.

The AL balloting, for which BCB had no vote, was very close, with only two points separating the top two. If I did have a vote for the AL ROY, it would have gone to Gordon Beckham.

BCB ballots:

Al: 1) J.A. Happ 2) Tommy Hanson 3) Randy Wells      
Mike: 1) Chris Coghlan 2) J.A. Happ 3) Tommy Hanson

National League

Rk	Player	Team	1st	2nd	3rd	Pts
1	Tommy Hanson	Atlanta Braves	9	9	6	78
2	J.A. Happ	Philadelphia Phillies	6	9	7	64
3	Andrew McCutchen	Pittsburgh Pirates	8	3	5	54
4	Chris Coghlan	Florida Marlins	7	5	4	54
5	Dexter Fowler	Colorado Rockies	-	3	1	10
6	Randy Wells	Chicago Cubs	-	-	6	6
7	Garrett Jones	Pittsburgh Pirates	1	-	-	5
8	Casey McGehee	Milwaukee Brewers	-	1	2	5
9	Seth Smith	Colorado Rockies	-	1	-	3

American League

Rk	Player	Team	1st	2nd	3rd	Pts
1	Elvis Andrus	Texas Rangers	6	9	6	63
2	Andrew Bailey	Oakland Athletics	11	1	3	61
3	Jeff Niemann	Tampa Bay Rays	3	5	3	33
4	Rick Porcello	Detroit Tigers	2	7	2	33
5	Brett Anderson	Oakland Athletics	5	1	3	31
6	Gordon Beckham	Chicago White Sox	1	2	8	19
7	Nolan Reimold	Baltimore Orioles	1	-	1	6
8	Matt Wieters	Baltimore Orioles	-	1	3	6
9	Brad Bergesen	Baltimore Orioles	-	1	-	3
10	Ricky Romero	Toronto Blue Jays	-	1	-	3
11	Travis Snider	Toronto Blue Jays	-	1	-	3

If They Had a King of Fools, Then I Could Wear that Crown: What Should We Expect from Ricky Romero in 2010?

jessef — Tue, 03 Nov 2009 14:00:26 -0000

More photos » by Tony Gutierrez - AP

Ricky Romero (right) reacts to manager Cito Gaston (left) telling him what Bill James (not depicted) has projected for his 2010 season. (AP Photo/Tony Gutierrez)

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For a first-round draft pick out of college, Ricky Romero struggled a bit on his way to the majors but after cracking the rotation with a strong spring before the 2009 season, he got off to a good start to his major league career before landing on the DL with a strained oblique. Upon returning to the rotation, Romero soon regained his form and was pitching great into early July, when he began to run into some control problems. After the All-Star Break, Romero seemed to have trouble finding the zone (3.1 BB/9 first half vs. 4.8 BB/9 second half). Another concern is that Ricky also appeared far more hittable during the second half than in the first (.290 BAbip-against first half vs. .372 BAbip-against second half). How much of his being more hittable can be attributed to luck and how much to skill remains to be seen.

It's not all gloom-and-doom, however. One encouraging aspect of Romero's development through the majors thus far has been his ability to strike out batters, which he displayed in the second half almost as well as in the first (an healthy 7.1 K/9-rate in both halves, though his high second half BABIP inflated that value). He struck out so many hitters because his change-up generated quite a few errant swings (his whiff% was seventh in the league at 22.1% compared to a league average 19.5%). Romero finished the season with 178 IP and an FIP of 4.33, worth (according to fangraphs) about 2.7 WAR, the same number as Yovani Gallardo and Derek Lowe and about half a win less than our old friend A.J. Burnett. I'd say that puts Ricky Romero in pretty good company . . . for 2009, at least.

But, looking ahead to 2010, what should we expect from Ricky? Well, most people didn't consider him to be much of a breakout candidate for the 2009 season, which could work for him (because he proved the skeptics wrong) or against him (because it was a fluke), depending on how you look at it. There are sound arguments for both sides. On the one hand, Romero's weak second half could be due to a physical breakdown. He pitched a lot of innings early in the season, throwing as many as 333 pitches over a three start stretch in late-June. On the other hand, Romero pitched more than 160 innings of minor league ball in 2008 and actually finished quite strong in a late-season callup to AAA after a lacklustre performance in AA. However, while he pitched a full MiLB season in 2008, he was injured in 2006 and 2007, so it is possible that delayed effects of his heavy workload in 2008 caused some tiredness earlier than we'd expect otherwise.

Personally, I find myself pretty optimistic about his ability to reproduce -- and perhaps even build on -- the year he had. Remember, Ricky does not need to replicate his excellent first half to be a valuable asset to this team in 2010. As long as he can continue to strike out batters at a rate of 7+ K/9, he can afford to yield some free passes, particularly considering his propensity for inducing groundballs, which at 54% was second in the AL to fellow rookie Rick Porcello. Walks are always bad, but grounders with runners on can very easily turn into double plays and Romero benefitted from 30 twin killings in 2009. As long as he keeps hitters swinging and missing and keeps the ball on the ground when they do connect, he should be okay, even if his control is a bit erratic from time to time. Last week, Tom mentioned that Bill James projected Ricky Romero to throw 190 innings with a 5.59 ERA. My outlook for Ricky in 2010 is -- as I mentioned before -- somewhat more optimistic, around the same number of innings, but with an FIP of about 4.20.

Special thanks to Elvis Costello for the post title, when Ricky Romero implodes next season, I'll wear it proudly.

Breaking Down Arnsberg: What Are the Astros Getting?

davoag — Tue, 03 Nov 2009 13:00:27 -0000

More photos » by Darren Calabrese - AP

Is the criticism of Brad Arnsberg justified?

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In case you missed the FanShot from last Friday, the Astros hired a new pitching coach. Brad Arnsberg comes with a reputation as a young pitcher-killer, but was loved by all his staffs and seemed to be able to work some magic with 'reclamation projects.' The World Wide Web was abuzz with articles about his abundance, or lack thereof, of talent. A fine hat-tip to clack and AstroAndy for linking to them.

What I wanted to do, though, is to see if it was warranted. What we're really worried about here are young pitchers, right? Guys 24 years old and younger are in the prime area for suffering from over-use. There are two different models out there currently used to predict injuries to young pitchers. Both were researched pretty thoroughly, but it's hard to tell if they're good predictors of injury potential or just good at explaining what happened in the past.

When I went back to research Arnsberg, I looked at every staff he had from 2000 in Montreal to 2002 with the Marlins and through his five-year tenure in Toronto. I focused on all the pitchers he had that were 24 or younger. This is a bit of a departure from the model, since they stop at 25, but since two-thirds of his stops were of the one-year variety, I downgraded the age a year. The two methods I mentioned were Tom Verducci's theory on an increase in innings from year to year, most recently laid out here. The other was Pitching Abuse Points (PAP), first published back in 1998 by Rany Jazayerli here. I believe it's been tweaked a bit here and there since then, but it's a good starting place for the discussion. My results after the jump...

Arnsberg oversaw 28 different pitchers in their Age 24 season or younger. His biggest year for this was in 2000 in Montreal, when 10 different young pitchers got into games. The 2000 season also seemed to be a learning year for Arnsberg as to how best to utilize pitchers. Of the 10, only one threw more innings than the previous season (Javier Vasquez, +63 IP) and only one had more than 10 PAP per start (Vasquez, 16 PAP). Carl Pavano pitched seven fewer innings than in 1999, but had a PAP/Start of 4.8 and then suffered an injury the following season. The rest all had significant drops in innings pitched and none had more than 2 PAP/start. None of the relievers in his bullpen threw three straight days and only Pavano suffered an injury the following season. Knowing what we do now about Carl, it's easy to see it probably wasn't Arnsberg's fault.

The next year he surfaced was in 2002 with the Marlins. Five guys played at 24 or younger and two of the five had jumps higher than 30 innings. Both Justin Wayne and Nate Robertson pitched over 40 innings more than the previous season, but each threw the majority of their innings in the minors, not the majors. It's hard for me to pin these jumps on Arnsberg for that reason, since their workload was controlled by the minor league pitching coordinator, not the big league pitching coach. As for the other three, Josh Beckett threw 47 less innings than the previous season and averaged 2.1 PAP per start. Pretty reasonable for a 22-year old. Brad Penny had a 69 inning drop in his workload and had 0.8 PAP/start. The other guy in this group was Blaine Neal, a reliever who saw his workload go up by six innings and was used three straight days twice that season. One of those times, though was on both ends of a double-header, when he faced just one batter in the first game. No real injury trouble here, at least not by Arnsberg's work. Beckett had the blister problems, but that's not related to overuse and Penny did have arm trouble, but much later than this.

On to the Toronto years, where Arnsberg saw an impressive group of young pitchers hit the big leagues. In his first season, he had five pitchers in the age range we are looking at. Two drastically increased their inning total (Dustin McGowan, +70, Chad Gaudin +74) while one starter also saw an uptick into the danger zone (Gustavo Chacin +36). The other two guys, Brandon League and Shaun Marcum had smaller increases or decreases, but only Chacin had any PAP to speak of. Chacin's total of 3.7 PAP/start is high, but not distressingly so and his innings increase was slight in comparison to McGowan's. Still, Chacin did suffer a major drop-off in performance and had an injury or two thrown in for good measure. Of course, his delivery is a bit quirky and he came out of nowhere to begin with, so it's hard to say whether Arnsberg led to this flameout. Certainly, the other guys on this list went on to have solid years after 2005, so we may just be dealing with a small sample size.

In 2006, Arnsberg oversaw seven young pitchers, including newcomers Casey Janssen, Ty Taubenheim, Jeremy Accardo and Davis Romero. Accardo, Romero and Dustin McGowan all had inning increases but the rest saw their totals drop. Janssen was the only pitchers with more than 1 PAP/start and his was exactly one. Marcum saw his total drop by 35 innings and had a PAP of 0.8 while League had a slight drop in innings, but was used twice three games in a row. Taubenheim moved from a starter's role in the minors to the bullpen in the majors, which explains his 60-inning drop. None of the evidence here supports the conclusion that misuse led to any injuries.

In 2007, there were only four pitchers in our age-range, including two holdovers, League and Taubenheim. Newcomers Jesse Litsch and Josh Banks both saw increases, though Litsch saw his total rise by 29 innings, just underneath the magic threshold. Litsch also had just 0.7 PAP/start, meaning he wasn't throwing a ton of pitches. League saw his total drop by 59 innings, in part due to injury (I think, though I can't find it anywhere). Taubenheim had his total rise by 15, but was not used in more than two straight games, so he didn't really get overworked.

Litsch was the only pitcher considered young in 2008 and he saw his total innings drop by 11, but his PAP jumped up to 4.2 per start. More distressingly, though was how he was used down the stretch. From August 21 to September 29, Litsch started nine games and threw 61 innings and 980 pitches. He totaled 88 PAP for an average of 9.7 per start, a huge jump over the beginning of the season. He went 5-4 over this stretch and had an average game score of 62.4. Those were both reasons why he pitched so much, I'm sure. He was doing so well that the Jays wanted to keep him pitching to keep them in the race, as the team got to 12 games over .500 on Sept. 12. However, Litsch was pretty much abused during this stretch. He was used once on two days' rest, throwing 49 pitches over three innings and was used once on three days' rest in the back half of a doubleheader. Litsch threw 110 pitches over 5 1/3 innings.

In 2009, Litsch was shut down in April and finally had Tommy John surgery in June. I think it's safe to say that his usage pattern at the end of 2008 may have led to this, but we can't be certain. Arnsberg's last year with Toronto saw five pitchers in our age-group, including Litsch. Ricky Romero, Brett Cecil, Mark Rzepczynski and Brad Mills made major-league debuts and all but Mills saw increases in their inning totals. None saw jumps of over 30, though they all had more PAP than in Arnsberg's past. Romero tallied 6.3 PAP/start and saw his innings jump 14, while Brett Cecil had a jump of 24 innings and 2.1 PAP/start. Rzepczynski made the jump straight from Double-A and saw an increase in 28 innings while having a PAP of 3.8 per start.

What does this mean? Arnsberg gets blamed for the injuries to Marcum and McGowan, but in their formative years with the club, you can see he really didn't do much to hurt them. Only in 2008 did his usage patterns significantly change, and that also coincided with a new manager, Mr. Old School Cito Gaston. This is a classic example of a guy from a bygone era trying to throw pitchers out there like they did in the '70's and hoping it will work. In 2008, for example, Gaston used pitchers on short rest six times, while the American League average was just 3.7. In 2009, he was right in line with the league average of 3, but it still shows that he used his pitchers differently than most of the league. Arnsberg didn't like it, and clashed with his manager as was chronicled here and here. I'm not sure you can blame Arnsberg for what happened to Litsch but you definitely can't blame him for Marcum and McGowan. B.J. Ryan also can't be blamed on him, nor can A.J. Burnett, as both guys had either a history of injuries or a jump in innings before coming to Toronto.

At least one place is mad Arnsberg left Toronto, while there are a couple other places that still levy criticism. I'm not sure how Arnsberg will do with Houston, but I do know he's got a pretty good track record of keeping the young guys healthy. He'll have a tough time on his hands next season, though, as Bud Norris saw a 95 inning jump in his workload, though his PAP/start was just 0.5. Yorman Bazardo was also in the danger zone with a 34 inning jump, and his performance doesn't need any regression. The only worrying part of the bullpen was Sammy Gervacio being used three straight days three different times and once for four straight games. Of course, the 24-year old only threw more than 20 pitches in a game twice, so it's not as worrisome as it appears.

To review, Arnsberg coached for four different managers and only under Gaston did his track record go astray. Out of all his young pitchers, just three were inordinately abused: Chacin, Litsch and Vasquez. Now, we can see that Vasquez was just built to hold up to a higher workload, similar to Roy Halladay. Still, it doesn't excuse the abuse in the first place. Is Gaston more to blame for the last couple of seasons in Toronto? We can't REALLY tell, but after reviewing all this, I certainly feel better about the Astros' new pitching coach.

Rookie Review: Ricky Romero

John Sickels — Sat, 10 Oct 2009 19:07:38 -0000

More photos » by Darren Calabrese - AP

Toronto Blue Jays pitcher Ricky Romero (AP Photo/The Canadian Press, Darren Calabrese)

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Rookie Profile: Ricky Romero

Ricky Romero was drafted in the first round by the Toronto Blue Jays in 2005, out of Cal State Fullerton. Very successful in college, he went 13-5, 2.89 with a 139/34 K/BB in 134 innings for Fullerton as a junior, and was expected to move through the minors very quickly. He made eight starts for Dunedin in the Florida State League after signing, posting a 3.82 ERA with a 22/7 K/BB in 31 innings, allowing 36 hits. Scouts projected him as a number three starter, on the strength of his 90-93 MPH fastball, plus curveball, and plus changeup. I gave him a Grade B+ in the 2006 book, writing that he didn't throw hard enough to project as a true ace, but that he should get to the majors rapidly and "hold a rotation spot for a long time."

Romero began 2006 with Dunedin in the Florida State League. He made 12 starts with a 2.47 ERA and a 61/14 K/BB in 58 innings, 48 hits allowed, then was promoted to Double-A New Hampshire. The higher level was more difficult: 5.08 ERA, 41/26 K/BB in 67 innings, 65 hits allowed. Scouting reports indicated that he was having trouble locating his pitches against better hitters, that he was "nibbling too much" and giving hitters too much credit. He also had some elbow trouble early in the season, though this didn't seem to have anything to do with his Double-A problems. I lowered his rating to a Grade B, noting the decline in his component ratios at the higher level.

2007 was a bad year. He continued to have problems at New Hampshire, with a 4.89 ERA, 80/51 K/BB in 88 innings, and 98 hits allowed. A sore shoulder cost him velocity and he was throwing just 85-88 much of the year instead of his normal 90-93. His curveball also lacked the usual crispness, and his control gave him a lot of problems. He continued to show a good strikeout rate, but I wasn't sure what to make him of him and was concerned about the condition of his arm. I lowered his rating to Grade C in the 2008 book, noting that he could "bolt back up quickly" if his arm was OK, but that we needed to see improvements in his component ratios.

Sent back to New Hampshire to begin 2008, Romero continued to have problems in this environment, posting a 4.96 ERA with a 78/55 K/BB in 121 innings, 139 hits allowed. His strikeout rate was down. Observers reported that his breaking stuff had regressed, and that he overthrew his fastball too much. The good news was that he was healthy and had his fastball back up to 90-94 MPH. In August the Blue Jays promoted him to Triple-A Syracuse, despite his pedestrian performance in Double-A. Getting out of New Hampshire seemed to revive him: he posted a 3.37 ERA with a 38/20 K/BB in 43 innings for Syracuse,. 42 hits allowed. The walk rate was too high, but the strikeout rate was improved and scouts reported that the promotion seemed to revitalize his aggressiveness. I gave him a Grade C+ in the 2009 book, noting that he still had the stuff to succeed and that "if you see improvement in his K/BB ratio, a breakthrough may be in progress."

Romero was impressive in 2009 spring training, making the major league rotation. He missed some time with a strained oblique early in the year, but overall his campaign was better than the Jays could have hoped. 13-9, 4.30 in 29 starts, with a 141/79 K/BB in 178 innings, 192 hits allowed, 4.33 FIP. He maintained his stuff all season, his fastball peaking at 96 MPH and averaging 91. He mixed it with a slider, curveball, and changeup, giving him a complete four-pitch arsenal, with the changeup being his best pitch. Mechanical adjustments and a better mental approach were credited for his improved performance.

What should we expect for the future? Romero wasn't as effective in the second half of the season (3.00 ERA, 69/30 K/BB in 87 innings, 80 hits, before the All-Star Break, 5.54 ERA, 72/49 K/BB in 91 innings, 112 hits afterward), so it seems likely that the league caught up with him after awhile. Note the slippage in his K/BB ratio. His overall season FIP at 4.33 did match his overall season ERA of 4.30 closely, so in the end the luck evened out. His major league component ratios this year (7.1 K/9, 4.0 BB/9, 9.7 H/9) matched his minor league components (7.0 K/9, 3.8 BB/9, 9.4 H/9) very closely, so 2009 is not out of context with the rest of his career. He got a lot of ground balls (2.03 GB/FB), and I like the strikeout/grounder combination.

For a prospect who was considered a borderline bust as a first rounder entering '09, Romero had a great rookie season. To take the next steps, Romero needs to stay healthy and sharpen his control.

Goodbye, Goodnight: Orioles 5, Jays 4

hugo — Sun, 04 Oct 2009 21:04:00 -0000

More photos » by Gail Burton - AP

2 months ago: Toronto Blue Jays pitcher Ricky Romero delivers against the Baltimore Orioles in the third inning of a baseball game Sunday, Oct. 4, 2009, in Baltimore. (AP Photo/Gail Burton)

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The Jays' season came sputtering to a close this afternoon with a series sweep at the hands of the Baltimore Orioles. Today's game was an extra-inning affair the Jays lost in the bottom of the 11th.

On the Mound: Ricky Romero pitched pretty well for the Jays, though he gave up 4 runs. Three walks in 7 innings hurt him, but he struck out 8 and only gave up 5 hits (one of which was a 2-run home run by Nick Markakis). The long ball has been a thorn in Romero's side all season and will surely be something he works on next year.

At the Plate: Edwin Encarnacion hit another home run, which was encouraging. Edwin had a very good close to the season, batting .261/.343/.500 from September 1st on. If his wrist issues are behind him, he could have a good season at the plate next year. Jose Bautista and John McDonald also hit solo shots, and Travis Snider added an RBI double. Randy Ruiz had 2 doubles, a single, and a walk for a nice afternoon at the office. Vernon Wells had one of those days, going 0-5 and leaving a lot of men on base before Joe Inglett took his spot in the lineup to give him a bit of an early end to the season.

From the Pen: Jesse Carlson and Shawn Camp combined to hold the line for three innings, giving the Jays the chance to tie it at four on J-Mac's home run in the 7th, but Brandon League had some serious problems in the 11th, giving up a leadoff single and then throwing two away in a row and allowing the run to score. His focus just wasn't there - understandable, I suppose, given the circumstances - he has had a ridiculously hard-luck season and likely just wanted it to be over. I'm going to go ahead and pencil him in for a big season next year.

The Jays finish the season at 75-87, pretty poor considering how hot they started. Their pythagorean record, however, was over .500 (83-79), showing that the Jays have been the victim of poor run distribution. Normally, I might say bad luck, but this is the third straight season that the Jays have underperformed their pythagorean record and particularly struggled to hit with runners in scoring position, so that really won't fly.

I guess three wins in a row is our limit.

Tom Dakers — Sun, 13 Sep 2009 20:23:30 -0000

More photos » by Duane Burleson - AP

3 months ago: Detroit Tigers' Miguel Cabrera, bottom, breaks up the double play after being forced out by Toronto Blue Jays second baseman Aaron Hill, top, in the third inning of a baseball game Sunday, Sept. 13, 2009, in Detroit. Detroit's Marcus Thames hit into the play and was safe at first base. (AP Photo/Duane Burleson)

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Blue Jays 2 Tigers 7

One of those games. Ricky Romero gave up 3 runs in the 3rd inning and that was enough for the loss. He didn't look great. Josh Roenicke got into the game and gave up 3 runs in the 8th inning. Casey Janssen pitched a scoreless inning.

Offensively we didn't do much either, 5 hits on the day. Aaron Hill got his 97th RBI of the season to tie Adam Lind for the team lead.

No Jay of the Day today. Suckage Jays are Ricky Romero (-.124) and Hill (-.104).

Tomorrow we get a look at David Purcey, I hope he had a good game. Justin Verlander (16-8, 3.24) starts for the Tigers.

Jays director of player personnel Tony LaCava talked about some of our prospects over at bluejays.com. Nice to hear about some good young players.

Bluebird Banter Answers the Dallas Morning News' Questions

hugo — Mon, 31 Aug 2009 14:33:28 -0000

Hi everyone. So, Richard Durrett of the Dallas Morning News sent me some questions in anticipation of the Jays' 4-game, 3-day series with the Rangers and, given the team's recent play, I gritted my teeth and answered them:

DMN: The Rangers last saw the Blue Jays in June. Give us an update on the club since then.

Hugo: Do I have to? Things haven't been pretty for the Jays since June. July saw the pitching stay strong but the hitting falter, and August saw some better hitting but very poor pitching, with even ace Roy Halladay struggling. The team's situational hitting has been very poor and its record in one-run games has been a disaster.

In terms of personnel, Roy Halladay is still a Jay, as the world saw with the drama that played out around the trade deadline. B.J. Ryan and Alex Rios, however, are not. The Jays ate Ryan's salary as a sunk cost but the Chicago White Sox opted to assume the six years remaining on Rios' salary. The Jays also traded Scott Rolen to the Cincinnati Reds for Edwin Encarnacion (who is presently nursing an injured hamstring) and two young pitchers, Zach Stewart and Josh Roenicke. Losing Rios and Rolen has hurt the Jays' defense, which in turn has hurt the Jays' pitching.

About the only bright spot since June has been the return of Travis Snider over the past two weeks. He hasn't lit up the league, but is hitting much better than he did in April before being returned to the minors.

DMN: Roy Halladay has not been as dominant since the trade deadline as he has the rest of the season. Is any of that hangover from not getting traded or is he just in a mini-slump based on the opponents he’s faced and that he was due for some minor bump in the road?

Hugo: Halladay isn't the type to let not getting traded affect his mental or physical preparation for games or his in-game focus, so I think it's just one of those things. He's been facing very good AL East offensive teams that have seen a ridiculous amount of Doc over the past many years, and every so often, teams like that are going to figure him out a little bit. Doc's walk and strikeou numbers have been as good as ever, so some of it is undoubtedly bad luck. It's actually refreshing in a way to be reminded that even Halladay is only human. That said, when Doc isn't himself and the Jays are struggling, it can be doubly painful because the team really depends on Doc to be the stopper.

DMN: Who has been the biggest surprise of the season for Toronto? The biggest disappointment?

Hugo: Designated hitter/left fielder Adam Lind and second baseman Aaron Hill have been fantastic stories. Both are young home-grown players that have shown potential in the past but really took it to the next level this season. But for me the biggest surprises have been shortstop Marco Scutaro and young lefthanded pitcher Ricky Romero. In Scutaro's case, I just can't remember a player his age undergoing such a drastic change in his game. He's been a fantastic leadoff hitter who has been impossible to keep off the bases, and played a splendid defensive shorstop as well. As for Romero, he had been the butt of a joke at General Manager J.P. Ricciardi's expense for so long people forgot that he was a first-round pick for a reason. Recently he's been struggling with his command, but unlike some of the other young Jays' pitchers, he won't need to be shut down to preserve his arm, so he should have a chance to turn it around in September.

As for the biggest disappointment, it's clearly Vernon Wells. Wells spent about a third of last season hurt, but he performed very well when he was in the lineup, at least at the plate. This season, though has been a disaster with poor play on both sides of the ball. He just hasn't been able to get going at all at the plate, and his defense has fallen off considerably from where it was. The fans have turned on him as well and home games can't be fun for Wells right now. I feel bad for him as his salary really shouldn't be held against him and he is clearly giving it his all, but the bottom line is that he has been one of the poorer everyday players in the league this season and a mid-market team like the Jays can't afford to carry a player like that, let alone at such an astronomical salary.

DMN: How has the bullpen performed the last month or so? What can Rangers fans expect in the late innings of close games?

Hugo: August hasn't been a good month for the bullpen. Scott Downs returned from the re-aggravation of a toe injury that had sidelined him earlier this season, but he hasn't gotten much work in since then and has been shaky when he has pitched. After a splendid July, Brandon League has had an ugly August and has generally been a bit of a mystery all season - he has more strikeouts than innings pitched and very few walks, numbers that should suggest dominance, especially considering his hard sinker known for inducing groundballs. Yet his ERA (presently 5.31) hasn't reflected that at all. Lefthanded batters have been the main culprit. Lefty Jesse Carlson and righty Jason Frasor have been the best relief pitchers recently, and I'd look for them late in close games at the moment.

DMN: Who are a few players to watch in this series?

Hugo: Travis Snider is the one to watch at the moment, at least from the Jays' fans perspective. The young slugger has struggled to make contact since being returned to the big club (he has struck out in over a third of his 46 plate appearances) but that has come from working the count more (8 walks in 12 games) as well as from his struggles to make contact so it's not all bad. Snider is only hitting .198 since returning, but he has gotten on base at a .348 clip and hit three home runs. The bottom line is that it's only been 12 games and he is still very much a work in progress, but one worth watching. Adam Lind is making a bid at a 30-home run season (he's got 25 right now), which would be a lovely milestone for the young hitter, while Hill has already reached that (he hit no. 31 on Friday).

DMN: Can you give us a scouting report on the starters the Rangers will face in this 4-game series packed into 3 days?

Hugo: Sure. Brett Cecil will pitch in tonight's game and it could well be his last start as he has about maxed out his innings between the majors and the minors this season. Cecil, like the Jays, was on his way to a very nice rookie season and had a spectacular July but August has not been kind. The young Marylander has really struggled with his command and has given up 2 home runs in each of his last two starts to boot. Cecil, a lefthander, has a good sinking fastball that he uses to induce groundballs, a very good slider, and a changeup and curve that have eluded him at times this season.

In Tuesday's doubleheader, Brian Tallet will start the first game. Tallet, essentially a career reliever prior to this season, stepped into the Jays' rotation early this season when it was decimated by injuries and did a credible job. This will be his first start since being returned to the bullpen in late July. Tallet is not a hard-thrower and relies on movement on his pitches and a good changeup.

Marc Rzepczynski (that's "Zep-Chin-Ski") will start the other game on Tuesday. Zep (as his teammates called him) is, like Cecil, a 2007 draftee and his emergence this season has been a nice surprise for the Jays. He's been quite good in his 10 starts, showing excellent movement on his pitches and good strikeout and groundball numbers. Like Cecil, he leans heavily on his fastball-slider combo and will occasionally struggle with his control.

Scott Richmond will pitch on Wednesday. Richmond is a great story as a 29-year old rookie who was pitching for the Edmonton Cracker Cats of the Independed League just a couple of seasons ago. Richmond started off the season fantastically but, like the Jays, has fallen on hard times recently. He was out for a few weeks with some inflammation in his throwing arm and hasn't been the same since returning. Richmond has shown a solid ability to miss bats (97 Ks in 106 IP) and limit walks, but he can occasionally get hit hard. He uses the traditional four pitches and is most effective when he is mixing them all in.

DMN: How do Blue Jays fans feel about the Rangers? Do they expect the team to make this wild card race interesting in the final month of the season?

Hugo: I hope they do. It's always fun to see a good wild-card race. Though I suppose there is some vested interest among Jays' fans in the wild card winner coming from the AL East, since Jays fans like to complain about how difficult the division is, a complaint that has a lot of truth.

DMN: Anything else Rangers fans should know about the Blue Jays?

Hugo: The past two months have really taken its toll on the psyche of the team's fans. Even after the Jays' hot start, fans expected the second half to be tough with so many games against the Yankees, Red Sox, and Rays, but things have been even rougher than anticipated with the team essentially winning 1/3 of their games for the past two months. The Jays have been bad over that period, but they haven't been nearly this bad either.