SB Nation - Neil Walker

Pittsburgh Pirates Top 20 Prospects for 2010

John Sickels — Wed, 16 Dec 2009 22:16:26 -0000

More photos » by Gene J. Puskar - AP

2 months ago: Pittsburgh Pirates' Andrew McCutchen drives in two-runs with a single off Los Angeles Dodgers pitcher George Sherrill in the seventh inning of a baseball game in Pittsburgh Saturday, Sept. 26, 2009.(AP Photo/Gene J. Puskar)

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Pittsburgh Pirates Top 20 Prospects for 2010

All grades are EXTREMELY PRELIMINARY and subject to change. Don't get too worried about exact rankings at this point, especially once you get beyond the Top 10. Grade C+/C guys are pretty interchangeable depending on what you want to emphasize. Complete reports on these and over 1,000 other players will be in the 2010 Baseball Prospect Book, now available for pre-order, shipping on February 2^nd!

1) Pedro Alvarez, 3B, Grade A: Bat looks excellent. Even if he moves to first base, his bat will be good enough for him to be an All-Star. Upside: David Ortiz.

2) Jose Tabata, OF, Grade B: I don't know if I agree with the Pirates about his power, but I do believe them about his age and at 21 he is still VERY young with high upside.

3) Tony Sanchez, C, Grade B: He was a slight overdraft but I like him, excellent defense and it doesn't look like his power was all aluminum.

4) Zack Von Rosenberg, RHP, Grade B-: This is an aggressive grade for a high school pitcher with just one pro inning under his belt, but I really like his pitchability and have a strong intuitive feeling about him. He still has some projection left, too. Going to take a risk with this one and put him ahead of Alderson and Lincoln.

5) Tim Alderson, RHP, Grade B-: Borderline C+. Loss of velocity and break on the curve is troubling, but he's still a guy who held his own in Double-A at age 20. Stock has dropped but still an intriguing property as an inning-eater type. Ranks ahead of Lincoln because he's younger.

6) Brad Lincoln, RHP, Grade C+: Borderline B-. Command looks all the way back, but components are more those of an inning-eater type than a true ace.

7) Chase D'arnaud, INF, Grade C+: Speed, on-base ability, solid defense, might develop more pop. At worst a good utility guy and could get beyond that.

8) Starling Marte, OF, Grade C+: Uber-tools, particularly speed, but raw with the strike zone.

9) Rudy Owens, LHP, Grade C+: Outstanding K/BB ratio. Was hittable after moving up to Lynchburg, though he maintained a good strikeout rate. Great command of decent stuff but need to see in Double-A.

10) Ronald Uviedo, RHP, Grade C+: Live arm stands out but unsure of future role.

11) Victor Black, RHP, Grade C+: Another live arm, Dallas Baptist product has high ceiling but needs better control.

12) Daniel McCutchen, RHP, Grade C+: Old for a rookie at age 27, but has nothing left to prove in the minors and knows how to pitch. Another guy with a great K/BB ratio.

13) Brett Lorin, RHP, Grade C+: Sleeper prospect snapped up from the Mariners, could rank as high as 10^th.

14) Robbie Grossman, OF, Grade C+: High strikeout rate is off-putting, but he also draws walks, steals bases, and has untapped power potential.

15) Diego Moreno, RHP, Grade C+: Lively relief arm came out of nowhere, need to see at higher levels but could advance quickly as a pen asset.

16) Justin Wilson, LHP, Grade C+: Component ratios at Lynchburg weren't great, but he has a good arm and lefties with above average stuff get plenty of chances.

17) Colton Cain, LHP, Grade C+: Could rank as high as 12^th. Another high-ceiling arm bought away from college like Von Rosenberg, though not as polished.

18) Gorkys Hernandez, OF, Grade C: Baseball America has him at 10^th on their Pirates list due to his tools, but I'm starting to doubt the bat and his skills seem to be stagnating.

19) Trent Stevenson, RHP, Grade C: Another young projectable high school arm bought out of college ball.

20) Brooks Pounders, RHP, Grade C: Less projectable than Stevenson but another interesting prep arm. The rotation in the New York-Penn League and/or Low-A is going to be really intriguing in 2010.

OTHERS: (Grade Cs): Ramon Aguero, RHP; Nate Baker, LHP; Ramon Cabrera, C; Evan Chambers, OF; Jarek Cunningham, INF; Zack Dodson, LHP; Wesley Freeman, OF; Brian Friday, SS; Brock Holt, INF; Jeff Inman, RHP; Quincy Latimore, OF; Jeff Locke, LHP; Jordy Mercer, SS; Quinton Miller, RHP; Bryan Morris, RHP; Danny Moskos, LHP; John Raynor, OF; Hunter Strickland, RHP; Donald Veal, LHP; Neil Walker, 3B.

This farm system is improving, thanks to trades, more aggressive drafting, and additional scouting in Latin America.

Alvarez is the crown jewel, of course, and there isn't a lot really that needs to be said about him. Tabata is a more difficult case, since even if they're right about his age, he risks tweenerdom if his power doesn't come along. I like Tony Sanchez a lot and people need to lay off about the decision to draft him. They poured a ton of money into projectable guys in later rounds, and I think the strategy of mixing skill players with tool players will pay dividends.

The system is thin in position players beyond the top group. I like d'Arnaud but he may end up as just a good role player and not a starter. We'll know more once he faces Double-A pitching. Marte could be anything from a big star to a huge bust. Heavy investments have been made in young pitching recently. I like Von Rosenberg the best of the bunch, but Cain, Pounders, Stevenson, Dodson, and Miller all have significant upside potential. There are also live-armed guys who could help in the bullpen relatively soon, and there are inning-eaters such as Lincoln, Alderson, and Strickland to provide some leavening to the upside guys.

If what I saw in Arizona is any indication, Donald Veal could be a surprise success in 2010.

The Pirates could use some additional bats to go with all these arms, but overall this is an organization on the right track in terms of player development. The debut of Andrew McCutchen was just the first step.

Community Projection Review: Second Base

Charlie — Sat, 10 Oct 2009 21:45:44 -0000

More photos » by Charles Rex Arbogast - AP

6 months ago: Pittsburgh Pirates infielder Delwyn Young hurdles Chicago Cubs' Milton Bradley while turning the double play on Cubs' Derrek Lee at first during the third inning of a baseball game at Wrigley Field in Chicago, Wednesday, May 27, 2009. (AP Photo/Charles Rex Arbogast)

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Freddy Sanchez was among a number of players we reviewed who didn't actually wind up with the team. Here's what we predicted.

Community: .300/.332/.419

ZiPS: .285/.324/.398

Actual (with both Pittsburgh and San Francisco): .293/.326/.416

Bonus: We predicted that Sanchez would have 548 plate appearances, thus failing to trigger his 2010 option. Actually, he had 489.

We were spot on here. A number of people were very close, but it looks like Chad Bahamas, who predicted that Sanchez would hit .290/.330/.415, was the closest.

Sanchez's numbers were better for the Pirates than they were with the Giants, for whom he posted a .619 OPS. I wasn't a big fan of the Sanchez trade that brought Tim Alderson, but purely based on the results so far, the Bucs look like pretty clear winners in that trade. Sanchez's injury issues have to be a big concern for the team that signs him on the free agent market. You'll recall that in 2008, he had an injury-plagued first half, posting a .556 OPS. In the second half, he was terrific, posting an .862 OPS.

This year, it was the opposite--he had an .834 OPS in the first half, and a .532 OPS in the second. Take the last half of 2008 and the first half of 2009, and you have a pretty good season in there. But if he can't stay healthy, and as he gets older he probably won't, he isn't much of an asset.

Anyway, Delwyn Young took most of the playing time at second after Sanchez left. It was an interesting experiment. Young tried hard and did make strides in the field, although he still wasn't close to being an average glove at second--he posted a -13.6 UZR/150 there. On top of that, his hitting collapsed completely down the stretch.

Young is a useful player, but he's probably more of a Rob Mackowiak-like super-sub than a regular player. The Pirates are considering moving Andy LaRoche to second at some point in time; while there's precedent for good defensive third basemen moving to second (or back to second) without much of a problem (Akinori Iwamura comes to mind, and so does Sanchez himself), it remains to be seen how well LaRoche can handle the position. Then there's also the issue of who will play third if that happens, since Pedro Alvarez will probably start the year in the minors and Neil Walker hasn't exactly locked down a big league job. I wouldn't be surprised if Young won the second base job out of Spring Training, but I would be surprised if he were still there at the end of the next season.

Pirates Top 30 Prospects: October 2009 Edition

Charlie — Tue, 06 Oct 2009 00:01:57 -0000

Rudy Owens (photo: Dustin Baldwin)

Since the last Top 30 Prospects Feature was a fairly popular one, I thought it might be a good idea to make it a regular feature, appearing every couple months. So here's a new edition now that the season is over; I'll probably do another one when there's some winter ball data to work with, and then a few during the 2010 season. Let me know if you think this is a good idea.

All the caveats I described last time still apply, so if you have any questions about how I made the rankings, the first few paragraphs in the last post may be able to answer your questions.

Any player with less than 130 big-league at bats or less than 50 big-league innings pitched is eligible for inclusion, unless I arbitrarily determined he spent too much time in the big leagues despite not reaching those thresholds. (I'm leaving off Steven Jackson and Donald Veal for that reason.)

Ranking about #7 down to about #21 was the most difficult part of this list. Several guys near the end of that range actually played pretty well since the last ranking but moved down anyway, because they had other players leapfrogging them.

1. Pedro Alvarez, 3B, Altoona. Grade: A-. Previous ranking: 1. If there's anything to worry about here, it's that Alvarez won't hit for a high average in the majors; he batted only .259 in 54 at bats for the USA's World Cup team. He did, however, slug .574, and he's only just now finishing his first pro season.

2. Tony Sanchez, C, Lynchburg. Grade: B+. Previous ranking: 2. Again, I'm ranking him aggressively, and given the way he performed after being drafted I'm willing to give the front office the benefit of the doubt for now, and be open to the possibility that Sanchez is better than some prospect watchers thought he was.

3. Jose Tabata, OF, Indianapolis. Grade: B+. Previous ranking: 3. Tabata finished the season slowly, posting a .693 OPS in September. He also struggled against righties for Indy, posting a .608 OPS against them. Tabata has been a very good prospect for years and he keeps rising through the system, basically deserving the promotions he gets. But he has never really answered questions about whether he can hit for power. He'll get another shot in the Arizona Fall League.

4. Rudy Owens, SP, Lynchburg. Grade: B. Previous ranking: 7. I remain skeptical of Owens, who doesn't have shut-down stuff and allows too many fly balls. But after being promoted to Lynchburg shortly before the last list came out, he kept doing what he does, striking out his fair share of batters and hardly walking any. Carolina League batters did have a slightly easier time taking him deep than South Atlantic League hitters did, but Owens is a good pitching prospect until he proves otherwise.

5. Brad Lincoln, SP, Indianapolis. Grade: B. Previous ranking: 5. A perfectly nice pitching prospect, but he hardly dominated in 2009 in the minors, and he'll be 25 in May. Lincoln pitched well for Team USA, but didn't have a dominating strikeout rate in a small sample.

6. Starling Marte, OF, Lynchburg. Grade: B. Previous ranking: 8. We don't have much data to work with, but so far there's nothing not to like, except maybe the fact that Marte struck out four times as often as he walked--and even that isn't necessarily a big deal for a player who was promoted very aggressively in his first season in the U.S. Marte hits for average, he has some power, he runs like the wind, and the Pirates obviously love him. Sign me up.

7. Robbie Grossman, OF, West Virginia. Grade: B-. Previous ranking: 6. Grossman slugged just .308 after the All-Star break, and it's pretty likely that he was just tired. The terrific OBP suggests he's going to be a good player; the 164 strikeouts says beware.

8. Tim Alderson, SP, Altoona. Grade: B-. Previous ranking: 4. Yes, Alderson is a good pitching prospect who was a couple rungs higher in the system than most pitchers his age. But what he did after joining the Pirates organization should concern us a bit, as his strikeout rate went from iffy to downright bad.

9. Zach Von Rosenberg, SP, Bradenton. Grade: B-. Previous ranking: 9. Von Rosenberg pitched one scoreless inning in the GCL; as the best arm in a 2009 Pirates draft that was filled with interesting pitchers, he'll hopefully make it to West Virginia next year.

10. Chase D'Arnaud, SS, Lynchburg. Grade: B-. Previous ranking: 16. D'Arnaud hit well, with a good OBP, at West Virginia, then did basically the same thing but with more power at Lynchburg. He was perhaps a hint too old for the level, but it was his first pro season. He's a good, well-rounded player who hits for average, draws walks and plays good defense, and with the Bucs currently shaky in the middle infield, he'll have a clear path to the majors if he keeps hitting. He'll join Tabata in the Arizona Fall League.

11. Quinton Miller, SP, West Virginia. Grade: C+. Previous ranking: 17. Miller gets a bump after improving throughout his short season and posting a very respectable overall line as a 19-year-old at West Virginia. I probably underrated him a bit last time.

12. Jeff Locke, SP, Lynchburg. Grade: C+. Previous ranking: 11. The only reason Locke is ranked lower than before is that I felt I needed to move D'Arnaud and Miller up. Actually, the end to Locke's regular season was terrific--beginning with his July 29 start against Wilmington, he struck out 35 batters and walked just six, with an ERA of 2.58. It's way too early for despair about the Nate McLouth trade. Locke and Charlie Morton could make that deal a very, very good one for the Bucs, even if Gorkys Hernandez doesn't come along.

13. Daniel McCutchen, SP, Pittsburgh. Grade: C+. Previous ranking: 12. How you grade McCutchen depends upon how you weigh potential versus certainty, I suppose. As McCutchen showed, he's ready to be a functional back-of-the-rotation guy right now. The problem is that he's probably going to allow a ton of homers as a major-league starting pitcher.

14. Brett Lorin, SP, West Virginia. Grade: C+. Previous ranking: 13. No one ever talks about him, but Lorin struck out a batter an inning all year, and he posted a microscopic ERA after arriving in the Jack Wilson deal. Like Owens, he gives up lots of flyballs, and the ERA will probably take a hit after he's promoted to Lynchburg and faces more batters who have the ability to take him deep. (And ERA is pretty low on the list of tools we should use to evaluate minor league pitchers anyway.) Still, Lorin is a huge dude with a very good performance record, and I see no reason not to be cautiously optimistic about him.

15. Colton Cain, SP, No level. Grade: C+. Previous ranking: 14. Cain still hasn't pitched a pro inning yet, but he was probably the second-best arm the Bucs signed from the '09 draft.

16. Gorkys Hernandez, OF, Altoona. Grade: C. Previous ranking: 10. Hernandez was terrible for Altoona; you have to look pretty hard to find a facet of the game in which he excelled. He's ranked at #16 because of his age, and not because of anything he did this year.

17. Justin Wilson, SP, Lynchburg. Grade: C. Previous ranking: NR. Wilson, the Bucs' fifth-rounder in 2008, makes a big run up the charts with an excellent second half. His disastrous first half now looks like merely an extended adjustment period after an aggressive assignment in his first pro season.

18. Neil Walker, 3B, Pittsburgh. Grade: C. Previous ranking: 26. Walker finished brilliantly at Indianapolis, posting a .339 average in August that made his overall season line respectable. He didn't hit well in 36 at bats in the majors, but that's not such a concern. The problem is that he hits for low averages and, unlike, say, Alvarez, doesn't draw walks. Those are huge red flags. There have been a number of major league third basemen with Walker's basic profile (power, defense, an inability to get on base), such as Brandon Inge, Tony Batista and Pedro Feliz. But Walker has less power than any of them right now, and while he certainly could add it, it's worth pointing out that all those guys are or were frustrating, though still useful, players.

19. Bryan Morris, SP, Lynchburg. Grade: C. Previous ranking: 15. I know this is supposed to be a highly-regarded prospect, but as with Hernandez, it's just about impossible to find anything Morris did well this season. It's too early to write him off, but the Pirates would probably be wise to keep him at Lynchburg next year; he's had a ton of injuries, and he has probably moved a little too quickly.

20. Trent Stevenson, SP, Bradenton. Grade: C. Previous ranking: 19. The live-armed Stevenson was excellent in the GCL, allowing only two runs in his first 15 pro innings.

21. Brooks Pounders, SP, Bradenton. Grade: C. Previous ranking: 18. Don't read anything into Pounders being moved down; he did have one terrible start in August, but otherwise his year was as good as you'd hope. He moves down only because Wilson and Walker move up.

22. Ronald Uviedo, SP, Lynchburg. Grade: C. Previous ranking: 22. Uviedo slowed down after missing time in midsummer, but overall he pitched well, especially given that he started in 2009 after relieving in 2008.

23. Victor Black, SP, State College. Grade: C. Previous ranking: 30. Black, a compensation pick for losing out on Tanner Scheppers last year, finished very strongly for the Spikes, and it'll be interesting to see how he does with a heavier workload at West Virginia next year. Baseball America ranked him the sixth-best prospect in the New York-Penn League.

24. Jarek Cunningham, IF, Bradenton. Grade: C. Previous ranking: 24. Cunningham sat out the year with a torn ACL, but now he's back, playing in the Florida Instructional League. Watch out for him next year.

25. Quincy Latimore, OF, West Virginia. Grade: C. Previous ranking: 20. Latimore completely fell apart in August and September. As with a few other players on this list, it's possible he was just tired in his first full season. But Latimore's strike zone control was atrocious the whole year, and that can be the sort of stuff that collapses are made of too. Still, he was young for his level and has terrific power.

26. Exicardo Cayonez, OF, VSL Grade: C. Previous ranking: 25. The VSL season ended soon after the last ranking, so there's no reason to move Cayonez around too much.

27. Nathan Adcock, SP, Lynchburg. Grade: C. Previous ranking: 23. Adcock, another of the pitchers acquired in the Jack Wilson deal, struggled a bit down the stretch, although that's no reason for grave concern, since he pitched about 50 more innings in 2009 than he did in 2008. He'll presumably start out at Lynchburg again in 2010, but a quick start could have him in Altoona by summer.

28. Evan Chambers, OF, State College. Grade: C. Previous ranking: NR. The Pirates' 2009 third-round pick makes the list this time by improving throughout the year for the Spikes--after a .631 OPS in July, he posted an .881 in August and .867 in September. He walked in 20% of his plate appearances, which is impressive for a 19-year-old at any level, but he also struck out 78 times in 200 at bats. It appears he needs to work on finding pitches he can hit earlier in the count. He also struggled against righties.

29. Brock Holt, SS, State College. Grade: C. Previous ranking: NR. Like Chambers, Holt improved throughout State College's season, posting a .738 OPS before the break and a 1.052 OPS after it. He is also, for now, a shortstop. As WTM likes to point out, State College's home park appears to favor lefties like Holt, so it will be interesting to see how he adapts at State College. (Chambers is a righty, and he hit better on the road than at home; for Holt, it was the opposite.)

30. Josh Harrison, IF, Lynchburg. Grade: C. Previous ranking: 21. Harrison has been plain awful since the last ranking, and the chief reason why is that he struck out 19 times compared with only one walk since arriving from the Cubs system in the John Grabow deal. He has controlled the strike zone fairly well in the past, so I'm not sure what happened there. He's not old, but there's a lot working against him, particularly his size and the fact that he's unlikely to ever have enough power to be a regular third baseman.

OFF THE LIST FOR NOW: OF Rogelios Noris, RP Michael Dubee, SS Argenis Diaz.

ALSO WORTH WATCHING (and thanks to WTM and his awesome list of prospects in the Dominican and Venezuelan leagues): C Ramon Cabrera, C Joseph Schoenfeld, 1B Aaron Baker, 1B Calvin Anderson, SS Jordy Mercer, SS Jonathan Barrios, SS Brian Friday, SS Benjamin Gonzalez, SS Jordaneli Carvajal, IF Jim Negrych, 3B Eric Avila, OF David Pino, OF Jesus Vasquez, SP Zack Dodson, SP Jeff Inman, SP Nate Baker, SP Nelson Pereira, SP Mitchell Fienemann, SP Zachary Fuesser, SP Hunter Strickland, SP Aaron Pribanic, SP Jhonathan Ramos, SP Roberto Espinoza, SP Clario Perez, SP Porfirio Lopez, SP Fraylin Campos, SP Jason Erickson, SP Daniel Moskos, SP Eric Hacker, SP Tyler Herron, RP Diego Moreno, RP Casey Erickson, RP Anthony Claggett, RP Jeff Sues

Andy Laroche and Chris Coghlan: 2010 NL Second Baseman

raygu — Sun, 27 Sep 2009 12:30:14 -0000

More photos » by Tom Mihalek - AP

4 months ago: Florida Marlins' Chris Coghlan follows through on his three-run triple in the seventh inning of a baseball game against the Philadelphia Phillies, Sunday, Aug. 9, 2009, in Philadelphia. The Marlins won 12-3. (AP Photo/Tom Mihalek)

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A few weeks ago, I read an article that talked about how the Pirates are considering moving Andy Laroche to second base in 2010, to make room for either third baseman Pedro Alvarez or Neil Walker. Laroche has disappointed many roto/fantasy owners over the last few years, but moving him to 2B would probably increase his value a bit, as he could be a late bloomer. Laroche did play some 2B in the minors for the Dodgers.

In addition, the Marlins are considering trading second baseman Dan Uggla to make room for left fielder Chris Coghlan. Coghlan played 2B and 3B in the minors, but the Marlins moved him to LF to get his bat in the lineup on a daily basis. Coghlan has exceeded expectations this year, and a move to 2B would increase his value greatly.

Let's take a look at their stats:

Player	AB	R	H	HR	RBI	BB	KO	SB	BA	OBP	SLG
LaRoche, Andy 3B PIT	481	56	119	9	52	49	75	3	.247	.326	.370
Coghlan, Chris 3B FLA	465	75	146	9	43	50	76	7	.314	.385	.452

Laroche has the potential to his 20 HRs in a season and hit .280-.290, but has yet to meet the expectations since he was the Dodgers number 1 prospect a few years ago. His power has yet to appear, nor his great batting eye. Could a move to 2B help him reach his potential? He will more than likely be a very late round pick either at 3B or 2B in 2010 drafts.

Coghlan would probably be the 3rd or 4th second baseman drafted in 2010 drafts should the Marlins move him there based on his double digit power, high AVG and solid runs scored. Coghlan also has the speed to steal between 20-30 bases as he stole 19 bases in 23 attempts at Single A Greensboro in 2007, and stole 34 bases in 44 attempts at AA Carolina in 2008. Coghlan is a solid 2B choice in 2010 behind the Phillies Chase Utley and the Reds Brandon Phillips.

Pirates Finding New Ways To Lose; Also, No More "Scholarship"

Charlie — Tue, 22 Sep 2009 04:44:26 -0000

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Typical--the Bucs didn't get blown out by San Diego tonight, and they weren't even unambiguously bad, but they still ended up on the wrong side when the game ended. The Pirates rallied from a 6-2 deficit to tie the game against Heath Bell in the ninth, and that inning featured an awesome plate appearance by Steve Pearce, who laid off a number of tough breaking balls to draw a walk and keep the inning going. But their lack of a real bullpen ultimately undid them as they headed to extra innings--any team with bullpen troubles will be exposed in an 11-inning game, and in this case the Pirates were in a doubly tough spot because Joel Hanrahan, their best reliever by a mile right now, is on the shelf with elbow trouble. Anyway, if you have to rely on the likes of Jeff Karstens in a tough situation, there's a very good chance you're going to lose.

In the meantime, the Bucs' offense did the team no favors by leaving a ridiculous number of batters on base--the Bucs wrangled eleven hits and nine walks, but only scored six times. Garrett Jones hit his 20th home run of the season but, as has so often been the case for him (and I'm not bashing him for this because I don't think it represents a skill, just pointing out a fact), it was a solo job.

Whatever! I'm tired of this. Let's talk about something else. Let's talk about the word "scholarship." I come to bury that word, to attempt to remove it from Pirates-related discourse, except as it applies to draftees. For example, "Colton Cain passed up a scholarship to the University of Texas" is an acceptable use of the word. But "I don't know why Andy LaRoche is still starting, since Neal Huntington promised there would be no scholarships" is not. The attempted removal of a word sounds pretty fascist of me, I admit, but I'm not forcing anyone to stop using it, and if the tactic is good enough for an institution of higher learning, it's good enough for me.

I believe Huntington introduced the concept of a "scholarship." Unfortunately, I can't find its point of origin, because if you Google "neal huntington" and "scholarship" on the Post-Gazette's website, you get an amazing 124 results. What I took Huntington to mean or, at least, what most Pirate fans currently interpret Huntington to mean, is that under-performing players would not be given "scholarships"; that is, they would not receive playing time they did not earn on the field.

This was a stupid thing for Huntington to have said (and not only because the "scholarship" students I knew in college were often the hardest working and most talented ones, the ones who didn't need their parents to pay their way, but I digress). The goal of a baseball team should not be to mete out rewards and punishments for its players based on how they do; it should be to win games. It's true that the former often goes hand in hand with the latter, but not always. When deciding who gets major league playing time, there shouldn't be moral considerations about the perceived quality of someone's previous play; instead, it should be one factor that should be weighed along with others. When I hear most fans dismissively use the word "scholarship," I feel like what they really want is some sort of vigilante justice based on how the fans feel someone is playing. Justice has little to do with it.

The fact is that top prospects, like Andrew McCutchen or Pedro Alvarez, should get scholarships, while journeymen should have to do more to prove themselves. If Alvarez comes up after tearing it up for three months at Indianapolis next year, he should play every day in the big leagues, even if he starts 5-for-50. If Ronny Cedeno gets hurt and Argenis Diaz comes up and hits 12-for-30 in his absence, the Pirates should probably send Diaz back to Indianapolis once Cedeno is healthy.

Yesterday in the comments, someone mentioned the concept of a "scholarship" in reference to the possibility that Jeff Clement could end up starting next year. Now, one can certainly express the hope that Clement will not start next year, but invoking the "scholarship" concept attempts to find a very uncomplicated kind of justice in what is actually a very complicated situation. The Pirates will have two outfield positions set with McCutchen and Lastings Milledge, while Jones has shown he should get more playing time in either the other outfield position or at first.

That leaves either an outfield spot or first base unaccounted for. There is, of course, a chance that the Pirates could seek a free agent like Rick Ankiel, but many free agents do not want to play for the Bucs, and the Pirates shouldn't want to give a free agent so much money or so many years that he interferes with the team's long term plans. If they can't find a suitable free agent, and I'd actually bet against them finding one, that leaves them looking for a trade or an internal option. Alvarez or Jose Tabata could be possibilities, but both could probably use at least a couple more months in the minors--the Alex Gordon Problem applies in Alvarez's case, and Tabata hasn't really dominated in the high minors yet.

That leaves guys like Brandon Moss, Pearce and Clement, and of that bunch, why not Clement? Moss is a fourth outfielder, and while Pearce might be a reasonable bench option, he's had an up-and-down career since 2007 and could probably be considered as much of a "scholarship" case as Clement is. (So could Moss, actually.) Clement has a first-round pedigree and a reasonably good minor-league track record. He tailed off badly after a hot start at Indianapolis this year, but that may have had something to do with the oblique strain that finally shelved him. It's not at all unreasonable to think he's a better, higher-upside choice than either Moss or Pearce. Alternately, the Bucs could platoon the lefty Clement with the righty Pearce.

Choosing Clement need not have anything to do with "scholarships." That's irrelevant. It has to do with sorting through a number of possibilities, all with pros and cons, and finding the best one for the present and future of the organization. Sometimes that means playing the guy who played best last month, or for some short span in the majors last year, or for some longer span in the minors this year. Sometimes it doesn't. Anyway, I usually get the sense that when someone is using the word "scholarship," it usually just means "The Pirates are playing a guy I don't like." Instead of using that word, make an argument. There's no doubt that the Bucs sometimes make personnel decisions I don't agree with, but that doesn't mean there's some moral dimension to it, and it simply doesn't follow that the Pirates should always use the guy who played best in whatever arbitrary timeframe or context you care to pick. So please, no more "scholarship." Let's just leave that word alone.

By the way, this post is dedicated to Neil Walker, who earlier this year complained that players like him and the great Brian Bixler were getting the shaft while players acquired by Neal Huntington coasted through. Walker didn't use the word "scholarship," but that's the concept he was invoking.

Well, it's extremely early, and of course it's still possible that Walker turns a corner, but he has begun his major league career 4-for-26. And, with his inning-ending double play with two men on in the bottom of the tenth, he's as responsible as anyone or the loss tonight. Cheers to you, Neil! May your teammates in Indianapolis next year enjoy your grousing as much as I have.

2009 In Review: Indianapolis Indians

Charlie — Fri, 11 Sep 2009 22:18:32 -0000

More photos » by David Zalubowski - AP

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This will undoubtedly be the most controversial of the minor league reviews I've written, because it involves perhaps the two most controversial Pirates right now, Garrett Jones and Neil Walker.

A note before we begin: I believe minor league stats matter, and I believe minor league stats, and particularly AAA stats, are very valuable tools. See here for a good primer on Minor League Equivalencies, which Bill James showed closely approximate major league statistics. I also believe that what you did over the last month generally matters a lot less than what you did over the past two or three years.

Let's begin by comparing the Indianapolis statistics of two players:

Andrew McCutchen: .303/.361/.493

Garrett Jones: .307/.348/.502

These are very similar numbers, and yet my attitudes toward these three players throughout the season were very different. I loved McCutchen, but was actively hostile to Jones.

Neither of these lines look particularly good in translation. For example, if you adjust Jones' AAA numbers to Pittsburgh, you get .259/.295/.410, which is pathetic. (Remember, that's not a prediction of what he'd do in Pittsburgh, it's a translation of what he actually did.)

Of course, translating minor league numbers to the majors often makes players look pathetic. The reason they're in the minor leagues in the first place, at least in theory, is that they aren't good enough to play in the majors yet, so it's only natural that translating their numbers would make them look bad.

The reasons why I clamored for McCutchen and not for Jones, then, are twofold. First, McCutchen is 22 and Jones is 28. Players generally improve until they are about 27 or so, and then they start to go downhill. So there was good reason to think that McCutchen might actually outplay his equivalency as he improved throughout the year (which is, in fact, what happened); there was no reason to think Jones would do so, at least not judging from his numbers. Also, McCutchen is an outstanding defensive player, whereas Jones has no real defensive value. McCutchen can post a .750 OPS and still be valuable, whereas Jones can't.

Obviously, Jones, who has hit .301/.366/.607 for the Pirates so far, has exceeded any reasonable expectation. But why did it happen? It's not like the equivalency was "wrong"; remember, the equivalency is a translation, not a prediction, and the existence of outliers like Jones doesn't disprove it. He's hit for a higher OPS in the majors than he ever did at any minor league level, which is really strange given how old Jones is. Possible explanations:

1) Genuine improvement. At this point, this explanation deserves some attention, since 19 homers in 239 at bats are very hard to explain away.

2) "He learned it on the plane." I'm copping the title from a message board poster many years ago who was trying to understand why Tike Redman hit so well after being promoted in 2003. There was nothing in Redman's minor league history to suggest that he really was the sparkplug he briefly seemed to be in the majors, so the opinion of this poster was that if Redman had learned anything that caused his great half season in 2003, he must have learned it on the plane from Class AAA Nashville. Of course, Redman hadn't learned anything on the plane, which was exactly the point--his 2003 performance was a huge fluke. A complete fluke isn't as likely for Jones as it was for Redman, whose excellent half-season was driven mostly by batting average. But it's certainly worthy of consideration. For example, Jones' major league equivalency suggests he would have been a .259 hitter if his stint in Indianapolis had actually been in Pittsburgh. If he'd hit .259 in Pittsburgh but generally retained his power, that would make a lot more sense to me given his minor league profile.

At this point, the smart money has to be on a blend of "genuine improvement" and "he learned it on the plane." This isn't so bad for Jones, but I do think the Pirates should probably pencil him into the lineup next year rather than writing that name in ink. Besides, even if his hitting for the Pirates this year has mostly been legitimate, players who develop late often have very short peaks.

We should also be wary of Neil Walker, who has parlayed one great month at AAA in two years there into a big league callup. Walker's profile, going back years and including his terrible .311 OBP at Indianapolis this year, suggests he has no idea how to control the strike zone, and big league pitchers will have little trouble exploiting him. He does have legitimate power, with 47 extra base hits at Indy, but not so much that he's worth the effort. He currently compares unfavorably to players like Tony Batista or Pedro Feliz, who both play good third base defense and have excellent power but frustrate their teams with .250 batting averages and .290 OBPs. Walker currently has less power than either of them, so he should stay in the minors for now. The fact that Andy LaRoche isn't exactly tearing the cover off the ball is neither here nor there; he's very probably a better player than Walker right now, and Walker needs to prove, at the very least, that his terrific August represented real improvement rather than simply one great month.

In the second half of the year, Indianapolis' lineup also featured Jose Tabata (who did what he does, hitting for average and little else) and Jeff Clement, who tailed off badly after a strong start after coming to the Bucs in the Jack Wilson deal.

Indianapolis' best pitcher was... well, actually, it was Tom Gorzelanny, who had already exhausted the Pirates' patience and is gone now. After that, it was Daniel McCutchen. No Relation pitched well enough to overcome some rather glaring issues with flyballs, and earned a spot in the Pirates' rotation, where his flyball issues quickly reared their ugly head--he's allowed three homers in his first two starts, although he's pitched pretty well otherwise. Elsewhere, Brad Lincoln took some time to adjust to AAA after a great start at Altoona, and he finished his season with two great AAA starts. Virgil Vasquez, meanwhile, pitched like the decent AAA pitcher he is. The best pitcher out of the bullpen was Chris Bootcheck, who mowed down International League hitters before running into a wall in the majors.

Link Roundup: Pirates Promote Neil Walker

Charlie — Tue, 01 Sep 2009 17:24:25 -0000

Because we just can't have enough Neil Walker threads. Virgil Vasquez is coming too. Scott McCauley has more.

In other minor league news, Pedro Alvarez's minor league season is over as he prepares to play in the World Cup. Minor league reliever Dustin Molleken is going too, and not to pick on Molleken, but until I realized he's going because he's Canadian, I was wondering how that worked.

Coach #1: Let's see, we can get Pedro Alvarez. That's pretty good, right? And Brad Lincoln!

Coach #2: DUSTIN! MOLLEKEN! I MUST HAVE DUSTIN MOLLEKEN!

Sorry, Canada. You're a beautiful country. Anyway, Rudy Owens was also named the Sally League outstanding pitcher of the year after posting a 1.70 ERA in 19 starts there. Owens has capped his brilliant season by striking out 19 batters and walking only one in his first 20.3 innings at Class A+ Lynchburg.

Also, here's a neat article about smart baseball players. Ross Ohlendorf sounds like my kind of guy.

Fantasy Baseball: NL 2nd Half Batting Eye Leaders

raygu — Thu, 27 Aug 2009 14:00:15 -0000

More photos » by Keith Srakocic - AP

And he can really leap as well

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Here's a slightly different stat to look at when reviewing hitters prior to your 2010 drafts: batting eye. I used a similar calculation that I used to rank pitchers by Command ratio. Here I used K-BB for hitters.

Let's take a look:

Player	AB	R	H	HR	RBI	BB	KO	BA	OBP	SLG	K-BB
Helton, Todd 1B COL	134	17	44	2	12	25	10	0.328	0.431	0.455	-15
Cantu, Jorge 3B FLA	129	14	34	3	18	19	9	0.264	0.356	0.380	-10
Gonzalez, Adrian 1B SD	133	23	42	10	23	29	20	0.316	0.433	0.624	-9
Johnson, Nick 1B FLA	88	14	24	1	12	27	21	0.273	0.445	0.364	-6
Pujols, Albert 1B STL	140	26	38	8	22	23	19	0.271	0.389	0.514	-4
Berkman, Lance 1B HOU	48	11	15	0	5	16	12	0.313	0.484	0.479	-4
Ruiz, Carlos C PHI	95	15	21	5	14	12	8	0.221	0.318	0.442	-4
Molina, Yadier C STL	114	13	36	0	13	13	10	0.316	0.395	0.368	-3
Victorino, Shane CF PHI	135	26	43	3	13	16	15	0.319	0.407	0.511	-1
Lee, Carlos N. LF HOU	145	20	46	8	31	12	11	0.317	0.370	0.566	-1
McCutchen, Andrew OF PIT	132	27	38	6	15	21	22	0.288	0.378	0.508	1
Zimmerman, Ryan 3B WAS	139	35	45	12	34	21	22	0.324	0.410	0.655	1
Wright, David 3B NYM	104	19	34	3	12	18	19	0.327	0.427	0.490	1
Castillo, Luis 2B NYM	122	27	48	1	16	17	18	0.393	0.468	0.451	1
Loney, James 1B LA	129	11	34	0	19	16	17	0.264	0.345	0.318	1
Church, Ryan RF ATL	88	18	25	2	16	14	15	0.284	0.382	0.466	1
Jones, Chipper 3B ATL	121	21	31	6	15	25	27	0.256	0.376	0.438	2
LaRoche, Andy 3B PIT	115	9	24	2	10	14	16	0.209	0.300	0.322	2
Escobar, Yunel SS ATL	125	22	40	5	18	14	16	0.320	0.397	0.480	2
Roberts, Ryan 3B ARI	96	12	33	5	12	13	15	0.344	0.422	0.573	2

In this chart, if a batter's K-BB is negative, it means he is walking more than he is striking out, which is very valuable when trying to determine if a player should/could get more playing time this year and next.

A couple that stuck out for me were Jorge Cantu, Andrew McCutchen and Andy Laroche. Cantu's performance at the plate this year has been a little disappointing, especially in the power categories. But one thing the Marlins are focusing on is hitters who don't strike out alot, so Cantu should be starting again next season as long as he isn't dealt.

McCutchen has impressed at the plate and on the basepaths since getting the call back in June. He's a keeper for next year, and I could see a 15-30 season from him very easily in 2010, and that's a conservative estimate.

Laroche has also been a disappointment this year. He will be hard pressed to keep his 3B job, but he could get moved over to 2B in 2010, with Neil Walker and Pedro Alvarez ready or almost ready for major league duty next year. Laroche played a little 2B in AAA while playing for the Dodgers. I could see a 15-60 season for him should he slide over to 2B IN 2010.

Poll

Is Andrew McCutchen capable of a 20-30 season in his first major league season in 2010?

Yes, he already has 8 HRs and 15 SBs in about 250+ ABs,

33 votes

No, the league always catches up to rookies in their first full season, Give him time.

29 votes

62 votes | Poll has closed

Reds Avoid Sweep With 4-1 Victory Over Pirates

Charlie — Sun, 23 Aug 2009 22:39:32 -0000

More photos » by Keith Srakocic - AP

Brandon Moss after striking out in Sunday's game.

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The Bucs' five-game winning streak ended today as the Pirates went back to doing what they do best--making struggling pitchers look good. Homer Bailey entered today's game with a 7.53 ERA but lopped nearly three quarters of a run off it by allowing only one run in seven innings, despite four walks.

When I look at the lineup the Pirates trotted out today, with Brandon Moss in right, Ramon Vazquez at third and Brian Bixler at shortstop, I can't help but feel like they deserved what they got. Even though Bixler hit a nice gap double, it offends my sensibilities to see him starting, and I feel like I've taken a particularly nauseating time machine ride back to 2007. Neal Huntington and company have already gotten rid of the entire back end of the horrible 40-man roster they inherited, except for Bixler, who's now almost 27, still has little control over the strike zone, and has done nothing to show he deserves continued opportunities in the majors, despite what Neil Walker thinks. Ronny Cedeno is out with a hairline fracture in his finger, true, but he should only be gone for a few more days. Until he returns, Andy LaRoche probably shouldn't get any days off.

* * *

Somewhat relatedly, there have been some interesting arguments here in the past couple of weeks about Walker's other favorite person--himself. In fact, it seems like nearly every thread here recently turns into a discussion about Garrett Jones, Nyjer Morgan or Walker, and I guess I'm not really helping by stirring the pot here.

Anyway, one of those arguments goes that because LaRoche has posted only a .714 OPS this year, Walker should get a shot to show whether he can do better.

Surely LaRoche shouldn't be satisfied with a .714 OPS, but it doesn't follow that Walker deserves a chance. Class AAA stats correlate very meaningfully with major-league stats once they're adjusted, so I plugged Walker's numbers so far this year, including his 0-for-5 today, into Minor League Splits' Minor League Equivalency Calculator. The results?

330 AB, 71 hits, 24 2B, 2 3B, 9 HR, 19 BB, .215 AVG /.259 OBP /.380 SLG

This basically means that if Walker had played in Pittsburgh this year, he likely would have been one of the absolute worst players in the majors. Even accounting for some improvement over the course of the season, what Walker has done this year does not warrant even a September callup, let alone the third base job. Minor league stats matter, and Walker hasn't gotten it done this year. Three good weeks does not change that. Chances at the major league level are not, and should not be, given out at random.

One might argue that Walker should get a chance because we should see what he can do, now that we've seen what LaRoche can do. That's not a very good argument, because it begins from the false premise that Class AAA stats, when used properly, aren't predictive of major league stats. Walker has already shown what he'd do with major league playing time, and it isn't pretty.

Also, though, consider that major league playing time is also development time. LaRoche's .714 OPS this year contains a .336 OBP, which is pretty good. Walker, meanwhile, has posted a .336 or better OBP at only two minor league stops in his entire career, and this year he's struggling to top .300.

The problem, right now, is that LaRoche lacks power, and Walker lacks on-base ability. (Combine LaRoche's on-base ability with Walker's power and you'd have a pretty good player.) Unfortunately for Walker, good OBP ability can sometimes provide a foundation for power to develop, but the opposite isn't true. Guys who have good OBP as young players--think of Nate McLouth here, or Jim Edmonds, or Brian Giles, or Kevin Youkilis--often develop more power as they age. Guys who have good power but lack OBP skills usually just stagnate--think of Brad Eldred, for example.

This isn't to say it's all peaches and cream for LaRoche, or that he'll necessarily develop more power. A .336 OBP isn't really that high, and his .256 average this year is also cause for concern. And I'm certainly not saying he'll be as good as Edmonds or Giles in their primes, or Youkilis now. But I do think that in addition to being a much better player than Walker right now, LaRoche also has much more upside despite being two years older. There's a much better chance that he turns his base of skills into something more as he gets a little stronger. Walker is a hacker now, and while anything's possible, the chances are good that he'll always be one. He might have a burst or two of success in the major league level, but my guess is that pitchers will figure him out quickly and those bursts, if they ever happen, will be short. Then there's also the fact that a .700 OPS with a decent OBP is actually better than a .700 OPS loaded with power. Given the choice, you take the player who gets on base.

So, to sum up, there is no good reason to think that Walker could do better than LaRoche right now. Walker is also unlikely to be the better player over the course of their careers. And LaRoche has done enough this year to warrant more opportunities. A third baseman with a .714 OPS, a decent OBP and a good glove can become a very good player if he adds some power.

So let's please stop greeting every hit Neil Walker gets at Indianapolis with speculation about him replacing LaRoche. Neither of them deserve it. And while I'm at it, let's not accuse people who point out Walker's flaws of rooting for him to fail. That's just silly. He just isn't a very good player. I hope that changes, but I doubt it will.

Frank Coonelly: Pirates Will Raise Payroll to Compete

Charlie — Tue, 11 Aug 2009 18:18:46 -0000

Frank Coonelly:

This year's trades slashed about $7 million from the Pirates' payroll. But the team also spent $5 million to build a baseball academy in the Dominican Republic, increased its budget for scouting and held firm on a $10 million budget for draft bonuses at a time when other clubs are cutting back.

"If we're doing this right — and we think we are — then there will come a time when we'll have to increase the major-league payroll," Pirates president Frank Coonelly said.

This is, of course, the key. The spending on the draft and Latin America and the trades of veteran players for youngsters are critical, but it's also important that the Pirates be willing to raise the major league payroll substantially when they have enough talent to compete. Feel free to refer back to this article if the Pirates are about to take off in a couple years but still have an absurdly low payroll.

One more link. I thought this article about Neil Walker was ridiculous:

"The sheer truth is that I'm a young guy, and I feel like I can play at the major league level," Walker said before pausing. "And if Pittsburgh isn't the place I make it, I'm confident there is somewhere that I will make it. I just really don't know what the future is for me with this organization"...

"Treated differently?" Walker replied to a question on that topic. "I don't know if 'differently' would be the right word, but you can tell who the old guys are and who the new guys are. I just look at it like this: In any situation, in any business, new bosses come in and want their guys and are more comfortable with people they see as their guys. That's the situation I feel like I'm in. I'm not one of their guys. Bixler and I are not their guys, and it isn't hard to tell we aren't their guys."

Wow. I realize there's a sort of Catch-22 here (Are Walker and Bixler bad because they were drafted by Littlefield, or did Littlefield draft them because they're bad?) that's got to be pretty hard to contemplate if you're Walker, but it's amazing that Walker sees current management rather than his own shortcomings (which are detailed pretty well in the article) as the reason he's not in the big leagues right now.

Walker simply hasn't earned a promotion; not even close. He's posted OBPs of .280 and .297 in the past two years. If he were in the big leagues right now, he'd probably struggle to bat .210. He's been a tremendous disappointment, and if I were him I'd be thanking my lucky stars that I got an enormous first-round bonus that will, in all likelihood, turn out to have been a terrible investment for the team.

He's still a prospect, but that's almost entirely because of his reputation as a first-rounder and the small possibility that he somehow finds a way to harness his talent. He now has a .316 career minor league OBP, isn't young for his level, and no longer plays a premium defensive position. There isn't an intelligent team in baseball that would give him a major-league job. And Bixler is just as lost as Walker is. I know every ballplayer is supposed to believe that he can set the league on fire if only given a fair shake, but Walker's assessment of his abilities is so far from reality that it's either offensive or unintentionally amusing.