SB Nation - Jeromy Burnitz

Friday's Frosty Mug

KLSnow — Fri, 18 Dec 2009 16:03:38 -0000

More photos » by Tony Gutierrez - AP

It appears Claudio Vargas was never photographed as a Brewer. He'll get another chance to show up in an AP photo in 2010.

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Some things to read while simulating a sunrise.

Claudio Vargas is expected in Milwaukee for his physical late in the day today, so we can expect an official announcement on his contract sometime late this afternoon. Vargas had to return from the Dominican Republic, where he just reported to winter ball a few weeks ago and has yet to allow an earned run in four relief appearances, including two saves. Since he's only logged 6.1 innings of work, he might head back down there after the physical.

Until last season, Vargas had thought of himself as a starter temporarily pitching out of the bullpen, but Adam McCalvy has the story of how a late-season matchup against Albert Pujols changed his mind and caused him to embrace his new role.

Once the Vargas signing is official, the Brewer 40 man roster will be full. Tom H. engaged in a little rosterbation and notes the team is pretty much set going into spring training, barring an injury or trade.

With a tight roster, apparently there's no room for Seth McClung. McClung tweeted that the Brewers sent an email to his agent letting him know they're not interested in pursuing a deal to bring him back as a free agent. He's also looking to sell his house in Florida, if you're in the market.

Meanwhile, Adam McCalvy posted a correction to an earlier report on the incentives in LaTroy Hawkins' contract: they're actually tied to appearances and games finished, not saves. As TheJay noted, the collective bargaining agreement prohibits teams from tying incentives to "skill" stats, but allows them for playing time.

Elsewhere in the bullpen, Chuck Lofgren's hometown paper has a story about his opportunity to pitch for the Brewers this spring. They also have this quote, which might remind you of another former Brewer reliever/pinch hitter:

"I don't prepare for spring training like a hitter would, but I do still get in the cage,'' Lofgren said. "I can still hit. I never really lost it.''

Months into the offseason, the market hasn't heated up quite as much as one might have expected for second basemen. FanGraphs has a look at the guys that still remain on the market, including Felipe Lopez, and the possibility that they'll have to change positions to find work this offseason. I still think Lopez would have turned down arbitration in search of full-time work, but perhaps the Brewers knew something we didn't in terms of the market for his services.

Adam McCalvy also picked up on that note, and his ensuing post on Lopez included this note regarding the Brewer payroll for 2010:

Melvin says he still has some flexibility left over to troll the market in January and February for bargains. If he doesn't find any deals to his liking, Melvin could retain that flexibility into June and July to make a pre-trade deadline deal.

I guess the possibility of another signing shouldn't be ruled out.

Have the Brewers done enough to improve themselves this offseason? Reds Blog handicapped the 2010 NL Central, and said the Brewers "may be slightly better than the Reds, but not much."

John Steinmiller and Caitlin Moyer continue to give us looks into the offseason jobs of the Brewer front office staff: Today they have a look at the work being done by Aleta Mercer, Brewers Senior Director of Entertainment and Broadcasting.

Meanwhile, the Timber Rattlers' front office staff still has some time on their hands, as demonstrated by the five minute battle for superiority between ketchup and mustard in this week's episode of The Offseason.

The Timber Rattlers are also looking for your help to select a shortstop for their 15th anniversary team. Follow this link to read about the candidates, then click over to the front page to vote.

Speaking of voting, we have two of the closest races to date for our BCB All Decade Team. You have until 4 pm today to cast a vote for a backup catcher, where Mike Rivera leads Jason Kendall by 13 votes. You also have until 4 pm tomorrow to cast a vote for our fourth outfielder, where Carlos Lee leads Scott Podsednik by 28 votes, with Jeromy Burnitz lurking over his shoulder.

Around baseball:

Dodgers: Signed infielders Doug Mientkiewicz and Angel Berroa to minor league deals.
Marlins: Signed Ricky Nolasco to a $3.8 million, one year deal, avoiding arbitration.
Mets: Signed Japanese reliever Ryota Igarashi to a two year deal worth $3 million.
Padres: Signed outfielder Chris Denorfia to a minor league deal.

Here's another research project for a reader looking for something to do: Max Marchi of The Hardball Times looks at the difference in pitches CC Sabathia threw to three Yankee catchers in 2009, showing he appeared to prefer to throw sinkers to Jose Molina. I'd be curious to see if there are any disparities in pitches thrown to Mike Rivera and Jason Kendall last season.

There seem to be enough sites discussing it so I'm not going to turn the Mug into a daily receptacle for notes on Hall of Fame voting, but I did find these notes interesting:

Tom H. submitted his ballot yesterday, and had nine players on it. He didn't name them but based on this argument for Bert Blyleven, it's safe to assume he's one of them.
Followers on Twitter convinced Jeff Fletcher of AOL to change his mind and vote yes for Tim Raines.
Rob Neyer reminded us that some Hall of Fame voters still don't get it.

Speaking of Neyer, earlier this week I mentioned his post on the top 100 players of the decade, which included Corey Koskie (among others), but not Prince Fielder. Tangotiger has a look at Koskie's career, and his somewhat surprising route to 22 WAR in slightly more than five full seasons.

If that's not enough stat content for you today, Big League Stew has everything you always wanted to know about WPA.

There may be snow on the field on or near Opening Day, but at least Target Field will have functional bathrooms. Hall of Famer and Twins exec Tony Oliva was recently trapped in a Metrodome bathroom when the handle fell off the door.

I've heard of players doing all kinds of things to break slumps, but Hee Seop Choi might have topped them all by climbing Mount Seorak.

On this day in 1985, the Brewers traded two minor leaguers to the Giants for Rob Deer. Long before Russell Branyan was king of the Three True Outcomes, Deer was a 3TO Pioneer, hitting .229/.329/.450 with 333 walks, 137 home runs and 823 strikeouts in five seasons as a Brewer. Those 137 home runs were the tenth most in baseball during that stretch.

Happy birthday today to 2009 Nashville Sound Patrick Arlis, who turns 29.

Oh, and I'm hoping Garrett Broshuis will eventually share the plans for his Radioactive Cardboard Catcher.

Drink up.

Making Your '00 Face: Backup Outfielder

KLSnow — Thu, 17 Dec 2009 22:00:17 -0000

With the '00's almost behind us, it's time to take a look back and work together to make a BCB All Decade team for the '00s. Each day, we'll tackle a new position, and we'll have our 25 man roster complete sometime around the 1st of the year.

The concept here is pretty simple. Each day, I'll give you a list of candidates: For position players, it's the full list of players who appeared in at least 100 games at the position during the '00s. Here are the players we've selected so far:

First Base: Prince Fielder
Second Base: Rickie Weeks
Shortstop: J.J. Hardy
Third Base: Bill Hall
Corner Outfield: Ryan Braun
Center Field: Mike Cameron
Corner Outfield: Geoff Jenkins
Catcher: Damian Miller
Bench IF: Craig Counsell

Voting for a our backup catcher opened yesterday and will close at 4 pm tomorrow. Today we need to select a fourth outfielder.

Jeromy Burnitz

Seasons as a Brewer: 2, 2000-2001*
Slash line as a Brewer: .242/.352/.480
UZR (Fielding) as a Brewer: n/a**
WAR as a Brewer: 4

* - Burnitz was also a Brewer from 1996-1999, but those stats aren't reflected here.
** - FanGraphs only has UZR data dating back to 2002, so Burnitz has no data.

Carlos Lee

Seasons as a Brewer: 2, 2005-2006
Slash line as a Brewer: .273/.333/.511
UZR (Fielding) as a Brewer: -23 runs
WAR as a Brewer: 2.1

Brady Clark

Seasons as a Brewer: 4, 2003-2006
Slash line as a Brewer: .284/.361/.393
UZR (Fielding) as a Brewer: -1.1 runs
WAR as a Brewer: 5.8

Scott Podsednik

Seasons as a Brewer: 2, 2003-2004

Slash line as a Brewer: .276/.344/.401
UZR (Fielding) as a Brewer: -11.3 runs
WAR as a Brewer: 8.7

Poll

Who should be the fourth outfielder on our BCB All Decade Team?

Jeromy Burnitz

84 votes

Carlos Lee

143 votes

Brady Clark

49 votes

Scott Podsednik

102 votes

378 votes | Poll has closed

Making Your '00 Face: Final starting outfielder

KLSnow — Mon, 14 Dec 2009 22:00:18 -0000

First Base: Prince Fielder
Second Base: Rickie Weeks
Shortstop: J.J. Hardy
Third Base: Bill Hall
Corner Outfield: Ryan Braun
Center Field: Mike Cameron

Voting for a catcher opened yesterday and will close at 4 pm tomorrow. Today we need to select our final outfielder. I've narrowed the list a little, removing some players who did not receive significant support in their first time on the ballot:

Jeromy Burnitz

Seasons as a Brewer: 2, 2000-2001*
Slash line as a Brewer: .242/.352/.480
UZR (Fielding) as a Brewer: n/a**
WAR as a Brewer: 4

* - Burnitz was also a Brewer from 1996-1999, but those stats aren't reflected here.
** - FanGraphs only has UZR data dating back to 2002, so Burnitz has no data.

Geoff Jenkins

Seasons as a Brewer: 8, 2000-2007*
Slash line as a Brewer: .276/.348/.496
UZR (Fielding) as a Brewer: +12.7 runs**
WAR as a Brewer: 15.2

* - Jenkins was also a Brewer from 1998-1999.
** - Data only includes 2002-2007 seasons.

Carlos Lee

Seasons as a Brewer: 2, 2005-2006
Slash line as a Brewer: .273/.333/.511
UZR (Fielding) as a Brewer: -23 runs
WAR as a Brewer: 2.1

Brady Clark

Seasons as a Brewer: 4, 2003-2006
Slash line as a Brewer: .284/.361/.393
UZR (Fielding) as a Brewer: -1.1 runs
WAR as a Brewer: 5.8

Scott Podsednik

Seasons as a Brewer: 2, 2003-2004
Slash line as a Brewer: .276/.344/.401
UZR (Fielding) as a Brewer: -11.3 runs

WAR as a Brewer: 8.7

Poll

Who should be the third outfielder on our BCB All Decade Team?

Jeromy Burnitz

15 votes

Geoff Jenkins

419 votes

Carlos Lee

67 votes

Brady Clark

4 votes

Scott Podsednik

14 votes

519 votes | Poll has closed

Making Your '00 Face: Corner outfielder

KLSnow — Fri, 11 Dec 2009 22:00:18 -0000

First Base: Prince Fielder
Second Base: Rickie Weeks
Shortstop: J.J. Hardy

Voting for third basemen opened yesterday and will close at 4 pm tomorrow. Over the next few days we're going to jump around a bit: Today we'll unveil the candidates for our first outfield spot. In this case, we're looking at guys who played one of the corners:

Jeromy Burnitz

Seasons as a Brewer: 2, 2000-2001*
Slash line as a Brewer: .242/.352/.480
UZR (Fielding) as a Brewer: n/a**
WAR as a Brewer: 4

* - Burnitz was also a Brewer from 1996-1999, but those stats aren't reflected here.
** - FanGraphs only has UZR data dating back to 2002, so Burnitz has no data.

Geoff Jenkins

Seasons as a Brewer: 8, 2000-2007*
Slash line as a Brewer: .276/.348/.496
UZR (Fielding) as a Brewer: +12.7 runs**
WAR as a Brewer: 15.2

* - Jenkins was also a Brewer from 1998-1999.
** - Data only includes 2002-2007 seasons.

Brady Clark

Seasons as a Brewer: 4, 2003-2006
Slash line as a Brewer: .284/.361/.393
UZR (Fielding) as a Brewer: +1.3 runs
WAR as a Brewer: 5.8

Corey Hart

Seasons as a Brewer: 6, 2004-2009
Slash line as a Brewer: .273/.326/.470
UZR (Fielding) as a Brewer: -5.2 runs
WAR as a Brewer: 6.6

Carlos Lee

Seasons as a Brewer: 2, 2005-2006
Slash line as a Brewer: .273/.333/.511
UZR (Fielding) as a Brewer: -23 runs
WAR as a Brewer: 2.1

Ryan Braun

Seasons as a Brewer: 3, 2007-2009*
Slash line as a Brewer: .308/.363/.574
UZR (Fielding) as a Brewer: -17.6 runs
WAR as a Brewer: 9.7

* - Braun spent the 2007 season at third base.

Poll

Who should be the first corner outfielder on the BCB All Decade Team?

Jeromy Burnitz

5 votes

Geoff Jenkins

164 votes

Brady Clark

1 votes

Corey Hart

1 votes

Carlos Lee

16 votes

Ryan Braun

255 votes

442 votes | Poll has closed

Looking Back: Todd Zeile

Alex Nelson — Mon, 07 Dec 2009 20:03:42 -0000

After looking at Robin Ventura and Kevin Appier—two guys who, with a little better luck during their careers, might be solid Hall of Fame candidates—we'll next turn our attention to the guys I can't even pretend are realistic Hall candidates, starting with Todd Zeile.

Of all the Mets teams during my lifetime, the 1999 Mets were my favorite. With an infield of John Olerud, Edgardo Alfonzo, Robin Ventura, and Rey Ordonez, and Mike Piazza behind the plate, those Mets were a rare offensive-minded team in Flushing. After the season, I was crushed when the Mets failed to sign Olerud to the three-year contract he wanted—Steve Phillips sort of gave up when Olerud expressed his desire to go home to Seattle. Instead, Phillips turned to veteran third baseman Todd Zeile to fill in the gap at first, signing him to a three-year, $18-million contract.

I thought it was a huge mistake at first, one that the Mets, competing with a dominant team like the Braves, might not recover from. Take a look at these WAR totals:

Year	Olerud	Zeile
1997	5.2	2.2
1998	8.1	2.7
1999	5.3	1.4

Those are not comparable players, folks. Then, when you consider that Zeile was shifting from third to first, was three years older than Olerud, and signed essentially the same contract, it really didn't look like a very smart move to me. And it wasn't, because Olerud was still the better player, both in 2000 and going forward.

But you know what? It really didn't cost the Mets anything in 2000. Almost the same team from 1999 returned in 2000—the notable differences were no Johnny O. at first base and Roger Cedeno and Octavio Dotel were swapped for Mike Hampton—and despite some players letting down the team (Darryl Hamilton, Rickey Henderson, Ventura), the Mets made it to the World Series anyway. Olerud had something of a down year, hitting .285/.392/.439. Meanwhile, Zeile hit pretty well, producing a .268/.356/.467 line with 22 homers, 36 doubles, and 79 RBI in a lineup that otherwise struggled.

And the biggest surprise, to me at least, was how good a defender at first base Zeile was. He was pretty brutal at third, but he was a mobile first baseman with more polish than I expected from the guy who committed more errors in the 1990's than anyone. Total Zone has him at +12 for the 2000 season, which is actually a couple runs more than Olerud was worth with the glove. Olerud was still the better player, overall, but Zeile didn't represent enough of a drop-off to really cost the Mets anything, at least not in 2000.

2001 was another matter, unfortunately, when Zeile was pretty much done—his power vanished, although his on-base ability remained—and the Mets were forced to trade him for Jeromy Burnitz's bad contract in a three-team deal with the Brewers and Rockies. In the long run, Zeile was an error; however, the move was made with the short-term in mind first and foremost, and in the short-term it was close enough to a success for me.

The Mets, of course, brought him back for his final big-league season and even let the veteran return to his original position for a couple games: catcher. There was more than a little desperation involved, but it was also at Zeile's request. Manager Art Howe also took him out early in his final game, so that his final plate appearance could be a homerun.

Player	Career	Top 3	Top 5	Per 162
Todd Zeile	15.1	7.2	8.6	1.13

Nowhere near a Hall of Famer, but he did play well enough to enjoy a long career. Back in 2001, Bill James ranked him 81st among all third basemen, writing "A Brooks Robinson clone as a hitter, but more of a Larry Parrish at third base." Sounds about right.

The Scott Rolen Deal: No Thank You

Charlie — Thu, 08 Oct 2009 23:56:20 -0000

More photos » by Keith Srakocic - AP

3 months ago: Cincinnati Reds' Scott Rolen, center, is greeted by teammates in the dugout after he scored in the eighth inning of the baseball game against the Pittsburgh Pirates in Pittsburgh, Tuesday, Sept. 22, 2009. Rolen scored twice and drove in three runs as the Reds won 10-4. (AP Photo/Keith Srakocic)

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Forgive me for being a bit late to comment on this article by Dejan Kovacevic, but I just saw it.

Ten Ways to Reboot the Pirates in 2010: 1. Spend.

Sign Rick Ankiel or any free agent -- Nick Johnson? Mark DeRosa? Xavier Nady for a second tour? -- who might bring some pop to the lineup.

Make a trade for a quality player, regardless of cost.

The Pirates' current $23 million roster -- which projects to $28 million with raises -- has to represent the low point. There is no rule that says a team building from within must be a catastrophe at the major league level until the prospects arrive. Provided that acquisitions do not block key players -- signing, say, a center fielder would be absurd -- the only reason not to fill other holes would be to create more leftover money.

When Cincinnati recently traded for Scott Rolen and his $11 million salary after being miles out of contention, many in baseball scoffed. But the Reds went 25-11 with Rolen, and their many youngsters might have their development aided by his presence.

I'm not opposed to spending a bit of money on a player like Nick Johnson. But, as ever, it amazes me how little people have learned from the Pirates' recent experience.

First: the idea that the Rolen trade represents a good model for the Pirates is just beyond belief. Rolen has had a great career and all, but he has now whined his way out of three of the four organizations he's played for. (In fairness, his manager in Philadelphia, Larry Bowa, was hated by everyone, but still.) The idea that he, of all people, would be the sort of veteran player whose mere "presence" aids the development of youngsters is stunning to me. The Reds' ERA did improve after he arrived, and his superior defense probably did help out with that somewhat, but that's hardly a reason to make crazy trades for veterans if you otherwise should be recharging.

If Kovacevic is simply saying that Rolen helped the Reds with his play on the field helped the Reds' young pitchers, that's one thing. But his use of the word "presence" suggests that that's not what he's saying, espec ially since he didn't mention the pitching staff.

Has there ever been any sort of empirical data that shows that the addition of veteran players helps young players? I don't know of one, and while I can't prove it isn't true, it's fair to note that every team has veterans, and so it's quite easy to credit a veteran for his "presence" every time a team plays surprisingly well.

The flipside is that, if you want to, you can blame them and their "presence" when things go wrong. Of course, that would seem mean-spirited and stupid, wouldn't it? Of course it would. And yet it's every bit as logical as suggesting that the mere "presence" of veterans helps.

The best we can do if we're looking at the effect a player has is to look at how he played on the field. Mere "presence" doesn't seem to matter much, and Pirates fans should know that as well as anybody. How many more wins did Matt Morris' "presence" bring? How about Doug Mientkiewicz's? Or Jose Mesa's? Or Jeromy Burnitz's? Or Joe Randa's? Or Eric Hinske's? Just the other day Kovacevic implied that Hinske was a part of the "awful atmosphere" that surrounded the Pirates in 2009. And yet he was one of the Bucs' biggest veteran additions the previous offseason.

To be fair, I'm sure Kovacevic doesn't believe we should acquire these veterans indiscriminately; perhaps he means that there are some veterans who add something with their presence, and others who don't. But then why focus on a well-known whiner like Rolen (who, after all, pretty much did exactly what Hinske did by begging out of Philadelphia, St. Louis, and Toronto) or an alleged PED user like Rick Ankiel? Or, for that matter, a guy like Nady who's probably a perfectly nice guy but who has already spent a considerable amount of time in PNC Park, apparently without dropping any of that magic veteran pixie dust on the place?

There may, of course, be times that veteran "presence" does help. But even if that's true, no one ever seems to know what they are beforehand. The gift of veteran "presence" is one that only seems to appear after the fact, and then it appears completely randomly, such that a perpetual malcontent like Rolen all of a sudden becomes a savior for no other reasons than that 1) his new team happened to play well following a trade and 2) he's old. In Pittsburgh, we've had veteran after veteran, and none of them have brought anything extra to the team other than what they've done on the field. At least nothing we've seen. So why should we make this same mistake again?

The Rolen trade, in particular, was insane. The Reds traded a very good starting pitching prospect (Zach Stewart), a potentially functional young reliever (Josh Roenicke) and a very talented, if extremely frustrating, young third baseman (Edwin Encarnacion) to get him. In terms of value, this would be a little like if the Pirates traded Rudy Owens, Eric Hacker and Lastings Milledge--for a player who's old and expensive and will be gone after 2010. A potential crowd-pleaser, perhaps, but utterly bonkers in terms of the goals of the franchise.

So when someone says that the Pirates, who are two years from contending in the best of circumstances, should "trade for a quality player, regardless of cost" and points to the Scott Rolen deal as an example of what the Bucs should do, I have to ask: Really?

Kovacevic does have a point that there's no reason the Pirates shouldn't sign a veteran or two this offseason--if the right opportunity presents itself. But jeez, let's at least agree on some some basic tenets here. The point of having youngsters on a 62-win team is not to trade for aging free-agents-to-be. And veteran "presence" isn't going to matter without talent to back it up--just ask the 2007 Pirates. Or the 2006 Pirates. Or the 2004 Pirates. And so on.

Friday's Frosty Mug

KLSnow — Fri, 25 Sep 2009 14:03:31 -0000

More photos » by Morry Gash - AP

Jayson Werth slides safely past Jason Kendall, who waits for the throw during the fifth inning Thursday.

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Some things to read while never knowing the joy.

(Yeah, I've been a little hard on kids this week. It's been a rough week. Sorry)

Doug Melvin has finished his evaluations of the team's manager and coaches, and while he hasn't announced any plans to make a change, he also declined another opportunity to give a vote of confidence to Ken Macha, saying he hasn't decided yet if Macha will return next season.

The Brewers were shut down by J.A. Happ yesterday in what might turn out to be one of Happ's final starts of 2009. The Phillies are considering moving Happ to the bullpen to help fill a hole in the late innings of games.

Meanwhile, Manny Parra is ready to pitch today, and will likely get two starts to attempt to finish the season on a positive note. Parra hasn't pitched since lasting just one inning on September 8 (and threw just 88 pitches in the start before that), so he'll probably have a short leash and a low pitch count tonight.

Prince Fielder is the only player in baseball this season to start every game for his team, and could become just the fourth Brewer ever to start all 162. Fielder cited a lesson he learned in little league as his reason for wanting to play every day.

Speaking of things that seem like they happen every day, Jason Kendall was hit by another pitch last night, the 246th of his career. Plunk Everyone has dozens of notes on the accomplishment, including this one: The Brewers are just 5-7 in games where Kendall is hit by a pitch this season.

I usually avoid blog posts that focus on tearing apart bad sports writing: Just because there are still fish in the barrel doesn't mean you need to keep shooting. With that said, Rubie Q (with a small assist) is taking on the assertion that the Brewers would have eight wins better with Rickie Weeks. If you've never considered how rare an eight win player is, this one is worth your time.

Braden Looper has had an up and down season but probably hasn't been the Brewers' worst starter, even if he did set a new franchise record for home runs allowed. Should he be back next year? Fire Doug Melvin says yes, as long as he can transform into a "100 foot tall metal version of Looper that could throw non-meatballs and then crush a car while spitting fire."

Baseball America has a cumulative look at organizational minor league performance this season, and the Brewers finished 22nd with a 332-348 record, buoyed by good seasons from Brevard County and Huntsville but anchored by poor records in Wisconsin and Arizona.

On Power Rankings:

Yahoo moved the Brewers up one spot to 17th.
Beyond the Box Score moved the Brewers up one spot to #22.

Around baseball:

Pirates: Claimed pitcher Anthony Claggett off waivers from the Yankees.

Jorge Says No! is continuing their series on players who will be free agents at season's end, and they've come across another player the Brewers may have interest in: Doug Davis. They think he'll get three years/$27 million on the open market.

Jon Weisman of Dodger Thoughts has an interesting conversation starter on the state of baseball commentary: With the increasing amount of information available and the resulting increase in the knowledge of the average fan, can any national baseball writer really be trusted or expected to do the work necessary to keep up with all 30 teams?

I want to sit next to this guy the next time I go to a game. After spending hours sitting in the hot sun watching the Angels lose, a fan in Anaheim bought out an ice cream vendor and distributed the contents of his cooler for free to nearby fans.

I've got significantly too many "On this days" today, so it's time to bust out the bullet points:

On this day in 1974, surgery was performed to replace the ulnar collateral ligament in Tommy John's elbow, resuscitating the pitcher's career and earning him a new claim to fame. Now, I'd guess most baseball fans know what Tommy John surgery is, but have no idea it's named after a pitcher who won 288 games over 26 seasons.
On this day in 1986, the Brewers beat the Orioles 9-3 in George Bamberger's final game as manager.
On this day in 2001, the Brewers beat the Diamondbacks 9-4 as Richie Sexson and Jeromy Burnitz became the first pair of teammates ever to hit three home runs in a game.
On this day in 2007, Prince Fielder hit two home runs (one of them off of Braden Looper), making him the youngest player ever to hit 50 in a season. The Brewers beat the Cardinals, 9-1.
And on this day one year ago, Ryan Braun's tenth inning, walk-off grand slam propelled the Brewers to a 5-1 win over the Pirates.

Happy birthday today to David Weathers, who turns 40.

Oh, and today's Mug, most of my recent work and my management of this site might suck, but they're all asbestos free.

Drink up.

WAR Lords of the Diamond (Right Field)

Jabberwocky — Fri, 11 Sep 2009 06:05:06 -0000

More photos » by Denis Poroy - AP

Hawpe is the poster child for the value of defensive metrics.

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Previous Sessions in the WAR Lords Series:

C (with methodology) I 1B I 2B I 3B I SS I LF I CF

For the next step in my ongoing quest to quantify the greatest Rockies ever by position, I'm revealing the best performers at the right field position.

Once again, I'm using Sean Smith's historical WAR database (not Fangraphs) to compile these numbers (with a big assist to the fabulous Baseball Reference; here is the glossary of the terms Smith uses and an explanation of how WAR is calculated.

Right Field, according to Tom Tango's positional adjustment scale, is given a rank of -7.5, equal to that of a left fielder. While right field requires a stronger, more accurate arm, more balls on average are hit to the left fielder. In either case, most MLB clubs rely on corner outfielders for offensive production, deemphasizing their defensive contributions--though indications are that the traditional view is changing.

Right fielders are expected to not only to catch fly balls but also are especially expected to deny baserunners advancing to an extra base. Particularly desired traits for right fielders are arm strength and accuracy (as they are farthest from third base) as well as instincts (depth perception and tracking skills).

As this applies to the Rockies, right fielders in Coors have a smaller area to cover in the outfield relative to left and center field, making arm strength and accuracy more important than range.

Only three players have played in right field for over 100 games in Colorado's franchise history (Larry Walker, Brad Hawpe, and Dante Bichette--who was included as a left-fielder), rendering this position group fairly shallow in quantity, much like first base. Also like first base, one player shines well above the competition. However, there is still some room for surprises on the list.

Right Fielders

Note: most if not all of these players played multiple outfield positions with the Rockies. I have placed these players in this category subjectively on the basis of where I believe they provided the greatest impact to the Rockies. In case of an average rank tie, career WAR is the tiebreaker.

1. Larry Walker

Career WAR: 44.1 (1st)
Top Three Seasons: 18.3, 1997-1999 (1st)
Top Season: 9.0, 1997 (1st)
Average Rank: 1

Walker is far and away the greatest Rockies outfielder ever. He was signed before the 1995 season, just in time for Coors Field to open and the formation of the Blake Street Bombers. Walker remained with the Rockies until midway through the 2004 season, when Colorado essentially traded him for salary relief (which was then used to sign Dexter Fowler). While with the Rockies, Walker made four All-Star games, won five Gold Gloves, two Silver Sluggers, and the 1997 NL MVP award.

His MVP campaign in 1997 was his best year with the Rockies (the best season by a Rockie, period). Walker was unconscious, hitting .366/.452/.720/.494 with 49 HRs, 130 RBI, 33 SB, and 409 TB! That's flat out amazing as a hitter (59 BRAA), but it gets better--according to Smith's metrics Walker was an asset on the bases (7 Bsr), avoiding hitting into double plays (2 GIDP), in the field (5 TZ), and with his outfield arm (5 OFarm). In all, he was worth 9.0 WAR in 1997.

That was Larry Walker--the total package as a baseball player, as well as a class clown.

The argument isn't that Walker wasn't great. It's obvious that he was. No, the question is if Walker is the greatest Rockie ever (Todd Helton obviously being his main competition)? I looked at Helton's career a few weeks back.

Let's look at Walker's Rockies career (average is per Rockies PA):

Year	wOBA	WAR
1995	.418	3.5
1996	.393	1.4
1997	.494	9
1998	.461	4.9
1999	.486	4.4
2000	.392	1.8
2001	.461	7.4
2002	.431	5.9
2003	.388	3.8
2004	.432	2.0
PA Adj.	.442	.009197

What does this mean? On a per PA basis during his Rockies career Walker was worth about 0.1 Runs Above Replacement. In other words, Walker was good for one WAR per every 109 PA--stunning production. If extrapolated over a 600 PA season, Walker averaged about 5.52 WAR as a Rockie. On this measure and by PA wOBA he bests Todd Helton (.421 wOBA and .007573 WAR/PA--4.54/600 PA season), but as they say, health is a skill.

While Helton has accumulated (through 2008, a period of 12 seasons) 7117 PAs, Walker got only 4795 PAs as a Rockie over ten seasons. This was due to Larry having minor (and major) injuries nearly every season he was with the Rockies (he only had 600 PAs in two of his ten Colorado seasons). It's the old counting stat vs. rate stat argument. Which is more important, longevity or per PA production?

According to my methodology, Helton's grades out higher in career WAR (53.9-44.1) and 3 year WAR (21.9-18.3) while Walker leads in one season WAR (9.0-8.8).

As such, I'll call this one for Todd Helton as the greatest Rockies position player ever. If Walker had stayed healthy, he would probably top this list (as his superior rate stats show).

Considering his Montreal and St. Louis seasons, Walker's total career WAR was 67.1, putting him squarely in Hall of Fame consideration. In fact, his MVP award and sustained excellence gives Walker arguably a stronger argument than Helton for the Hall of Fame.

2. Brad Hawpe

Career WAR: 2.0 (3rd)
Top Three Seasons: 4.4, 2005-2007 (2nd)
Top Season: 2.7, 2007 (2nd)
Average Rank: 2.33

Brad Hawpe was an eleventh round selection out of LSU in the 2000 draft. The converted first baseman moved quickly through the system, making his debut in 2004. Since 2005, Hawpe has been the team's primary right fielder, meaning that he has the second most games played in right field in franchise history (665 and counting).

Surprised to see Hawpe with only 2.0 career WAR? This is especially surprising given that Hawpe produced 4.4 WAR between 2005-2007. Unfortunately, both 2004 (-0.7) and 2008 (-1.7) were awful years for Brad. Why is this? A historically bad year in the field in 2008, the worst that I've seen in this study (closest was Dante Bichette's 1999, in which he had a TZ of -31).

In 2008 Hawpe had a nice year at the plate (.283/.381/.498/.379), worth 14 BRAA, but his TZ was -36 and he wielded a -7 OFarm! In 2007, Hawpe had enjoyed a TZ of 2 and in 2006 his strong outfield arm was worth 8 runs, but both of these trends turned ugly in 2008. His defense this year has been better than last year, but by no means does it approach league average, while his hitting is about at last year's level.

The 30 year-old Hawpe is likely in his prime years, meaning that his offensive and defensive numbers will only decline from here on out. Given this fact, his $7.5 million price tag next year (with a $10 million club option for 2011), and the glut of talented young outfielders the Rockies possess, it is probably time for the Rockies to move Hawpe for whatever they can get for him in the offseason. His bat simply is counteracted by his bad defense (he's got 45 career BRAA and a -53 career TZ). And yes, I've been advocating this for a while now.

3. Jeffrey Hammonds

Career WAR: 2.4 (1st)
Top Three Seasons: 2.4, 2000 (3rd)
Top Season: 2.4, 2000 (3rd)
Average Rank: 2.67

I have fond memories of Jeffrey Hammonds (he was very useful to my first ever fantasy baseball team), who was acquired in the Dante Bichette trade following the 1999 season. Despite having the unenviable task of following the popular Bichette, Hammonds succeeded in filling in for an injured Larry Walker and in all three outfield positions. The 29 year old Hammonds hit 20 HRs and had 106 RBIs while batting .335/.395/.529/.395 while providing neutral fielding value and was selected to the All-Star game. It was by far the best year in Hammonds' career, after which the Rockies let the Brewers overpay for his services.

4. Jeromy Burnitz

Career WAR: 1.3 (4th)
Top Three Seasons: 1.3, 2004 (4th)
Top Season: 1.3, 2004 (1st)
Average Rank: 4

Jeromy Burnitz, like Jeffrey Hammonds, was a one year mercenary for the Rockies that produced great results in place of Larry Walker (in this case due to him being traded). The burly 35 year old free agency acquisition (scrap heap department) actually played a decent amount of center field too, but the majority of his time was in right. Burnitz mashed 37 HRs with 110 RBIs as a Rockie while hitting .283/.356/.559/.380 that was mitigated somewhat by his TZ of -7 in the field. The end result was a slightly below league average season.

Unfortunately for Burnitz, he had priced himself too high for the Rockies (plus, Gen R needed to be implemented), so he signed with the Cubs for three times the money he earned with Colorado.

5. Gabe Kapler

Career WAR: 0.8 (5th)
Top Three Seasons: 0.8, 2002-2003 (5th)
Top Season: 0.7, 2002 (6th)
Average Rank: 5.33

Gabe Kapler is an interesting case in that he was good before he came to Colorado as a 26 year old as part of the Todd Hollandsworth trade in 2002 and performed well after the Rockies sold him to the Red Sox midway through 2003, but didn't particularly benefit from the Coors Field effect.

Over what equated to a third of a season's worth of plate appearances, Kapler was merely a league average player in part time duty spelling Walker. For these services Kapler actually made the largest salary of his career (much of which was picked up by the Red Sox). Kapler was out of MLB after 2006 (and was managing a Red Sox minor league affiliate), but somehow caught back on with the Brewers in 2008, posting one of the best years in his career, which still endures with Tampa Bay this year.

Other Rockies right fielders that contributed positive value to the club were: Mark Little (0.7), Mark Sweeney (0.6), Dustan Mohr (0.4)

Now that I've completed the lists of position players, I'll be tackling over the next few weeks relievers and starting pitchers, and then I'll conclude with the all-time greatest Rockies teams.

Not-Traded Harden Loses Strike Zone; Cubs Lose 16th In Last 24 Games

Al — Tue, 01 Sep 2009 12:30:16 -0000

by Paul Beaty - AP

Not your night, Rich.

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Maybe the Cubs should have traded Rich Harden.

After breezing through the first two innings last night, striking out four (although throwing an alarmingly large 33 pitches), Harden completely lost touch with the strike zone in the third inning. He doubled his pitch count in that inning alone, throwing another 33 pitches, issuing three walks and allowing a key two-run single to Cub-killer Carlos Lee. C-Lee drove in four runs and now has 47 RBI in 53 career games played at Wrigley Field.

The Astros held on to beat the Cubs 5-3, and the faint Cub playoff hopes dimmed even further. I won't give up until mathematical elimination -- and that's still quite a way off -- but obviously, things don't look very good. Since August 4, when the Cubs beat the Reds in Cincinnati to go a season-high 57-49, they are 8-16 and the Cardinals are 18-5. That's both a serious decline by the Cubs and an impressive run by St. Louis; only the Yankees at 18-6 are close to the Cardinals' record in that time frame.

This is a collapse not like the 1969 team, but more comparable to 1973, when the Cubs were 48-33 on July 1, eight games in first place, and then went on an 8-25 (yes, that's right, eight and twenty-five) skid that put them 56-58, five games out on August 8. I think this team is better than the '73 team, the last of the Williams/Santo/Jenkins/Kessinger/Beckert group that had run out of gas by then; I hope this year's team has one last run left in it.

Many of you have made comparisons between the 2009 Cubs and the thoroughly unlikable 2004 bunch that blew a sure wild-card berth in the last week of the season. I think the more apt comparison for 2009 is the 2005 team, the one that seemed poorly constructed from the beginning (Jim Hendry getting fooled by Jeromy Burnitz' big year in Colorado, signing him, expecting the same sort of production), and suffering injuries to key players (Nomar Garciaparra, Mark Prior) without having suitable backups. Remember how Dusty Baker, after giving Neifi Perez over 600 plate appearances and 136 starts, said, "Neifi saved us!" To which the response was, "From what?" On August 2, 2005 the Cubs stood at 54-52, four games out of the wild card lead and, as today, behind four other teams. They proceeded to lose eight games in a row, and by the time the carnage was over on August 29, had gone 8-17 and were out of it.

This team, again, I believe to be better than that one, but time is growing short, and they're not going to win many games leaving runners on third base with less than two out, as they did last night when Kosuke Fukudome couldn't bring Derrek Lee home after he had reached second on a dropped fly ball and gone to third on one of Aramis Ramirez's three line drives to Michael Bourn. The only positive from last night was, again, the work of the bullpen, who kept the team in the game. Aaron Heilman again threw two solid innings, and along with Kevin Gregg and John Grabow combined for four shutout, three-hit, six-strikeout innings.

All they can do is go out and win tonight, win the rest of the games on this homestand and try to sneak back into things. There was a fall-like chill in the late-August air last night; hopefully, that will not be an omen. And if the Cubs do fall out of it as their 2005 counterparts did, let us hope ownership and top management doesn't fool itself into thinking they will fix things as they did over the winter of 2005-06. The 2006 season, as you know, was a disaster. If 2009 isn't going to end up happily, at least let's have some hope for 2010.

Monday's Frosty Mug

KLSnow — Mon, 31 Aug 2009 14:39:22 -0000

More photos » by Morry Gash - AP

Ryan Braun, Jody Gerut and Frank Catalanotto celebrate after completing a sweep of the Pirates Sunday.

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Some things to read while waiting for a bartender.

The Brewers have a day off today to prepare for what might be their last opportunity to prove themselves relevant in the NL Central in 2009: A nine game stretch against the Cardinals, Giants and Cardinals again. Ken Macha says the Brewers have to be realistic about their position in the standings (which is why he's passing on the opportunity to skip a spot in the rotation this week), but also acknowledges that things could change if the Brewers can get hot this week and next. The Brewers are 23-24 this season against teams they'll see in September.

With roster expansion on the horizon, J.J. Hardy is expected to rejoin the team tomorrow, and we'll see if the issue with him blows over or boils over. Mike Seal, Hardy's agent, obviously appears to disagree with the decision to demote Hardy, but also called it "a shrewd move" by the Crew to send Hardy down and delay his free agency. J.J. Hardy's Nashville bio picture says a lot about his thoughts on the situation.

As you may have noticed, Hardy is swinging and missing a lot this season. In fact, he's also consistently failing to make weak contact: Plunk Everyone noticed that Hardy has the eighth lowest foul ball percentage in baseball. Jody Gerut, by the way, was tenth.

The Brewers are only expected to call a handful of players up from AAA, and they're expected to stagger the callups over the next few days. With that said, the Brewers also have three players getting ready to return from injury, as Corey Hart is getting ready to go out on a rehab assignment and Seth McClung and Jesus Colome both threw off a mound this weekend. If the Brewers call up six players from the minors and these three all return, they'll have 34 players on the active roster.

The Cardinals have opened up a ten game lead on the Cubs, and it's hard to imagine a scenario where they don't win the NL Central at this point. Murray Chass has a look at what happened to what was one of baseball's closest divisions a few months ago.

This race might be closer: With one month left to play, the Brewers rank 24th in wins in the 2000's. They're four games behind the Reds for 23rd, and 13 games ahead of the 25th place Tigers.

As hopes of contending in 2009 drift away, Doug Melvin is continuing to take a fair amount of heat for not assembling his roster differently, fair or unfair. Melvin responded to critics over the weekend, asking what they would have done differently. He's right, to a point: There weren't really any quick fixes available to the Brewers this offseason that would have dramatically improved this team. With that said, as many commenters have previously noted, Melvin was also responsible for the drafting and developmental strategies that left the Brewers with this hole in the first place.

Felipe Lopez had a rough weekend at the plate (2-for-17) but is continuing to try to play through a sore tendon in his foot. The most recent Elias rankings are out, and they have Lopez as a Type A free agent for the first time. If Lopez continues to struggle and the Brewers aren't careful with him, they could cost themselves a compensation pick next year by allowing him to play his way back down to Type B status.

The Brewers got a pretty good outing out of Jeff Suppan yesterday, as he gave up just one earned run in six innings and lowered his 2009 ERA to 5.20. In a world where we make near daily jokes about Sidney Ponson and Livan Hernandez, mgl wonders if Jeff Suppan is the worst veteran pitcher you never hear about. Meanwhile, Rob Iracane of Walkoff Walk says the Pirates, who couldn't beat Jeff Suppan, Manny Parra or Braden Looper over the weekend, will win the NL Central in 2011.

How much impact will Chris Bosio have on the Brewer pitching staff? Casa de Machado was at Thursday's game and saw Bosio doing some things with pitchers he never saw Billy Castro doing. The results haven't necessarily shown up yet, but that doesn't mean they won't.

Coaches are also working with Manny Parra to develop a cut fastball. As TheJay noted in this Fanshot, that's a bit of a philosophical switch from the past coaching direction.

In the minors:

Chris Capuano is taking one small step back up the ladder to the major leagues. Now that the season has concluded for the Arizona League Brewers, Capuano is moving up to Helena to get a few more innings in before the minor league season concludes.
Several Brewer farmhands are getting ready for the Arizona Fall League. Prospects Paradise has an AFL preview, and lists Zach Braddock, Lorenzo Cain and Jonathan Lucroy among the top prospects on the Peoria Javelinas.

I mentioned The Book Blog's Fan Scouting Report once before as an opportunity for you to weigh in on the defensive abilities of individual Brewers. I'll mention it again, because so far only 35 Brewer fans have added their opinions. Take a moment to do so today, if you're so inclined.

On Power Rankings, playoff odds and miscellany:

Baseball Digest Daily ranked the Brewers #17 in their ASTRO Rankings.
CoolStandings has the Brewers' playoff chances holding steady at .3%.
Justin Inaz of Beyond the Box Score ranked Jason Kendall as the 22nd best catcher of all time.

Last week I mentioned Trent Durrington's 34th birthday, but forgot to acknowledge that he was the last Brewer position player to pitch in a game, back in 2004. Recondite Baseball has updated the full list of the last position players to pitch for each team.

Around Baseball:

Angels: Acquired Scott Kazmir from the Rays for two minor leaguers and a PTBNL that could be Brandon Wood.
Astros: Placed reliever Alberto Arias on the DL with a hamstring strain.
Dodgers: Acquired Ronnie Belliard from the Nationals for a minor league reliever.
Indians: Acquired minor league pitcher Johan Pino as the PTBNL in the trade that sent Carl Pavano to the Twins.
Mariners: Placed Russell Branyan on the DL with a herniated disc.
Pirates: Signed Jorge Julio to a minor league deal.
Rangers: Signed Ryan Freel to a minor league deal.
Red Sox: Acquired Joey Gathright from the Orioles for a PTBNL or cash.
Twins: Claimed Ron Mahay off waivers from the Royals, acquired Jon Rauch from the D-Backs for a PTBNL and designated R.A. Dickey for assignment.

Today, they're reserved for making up rainouts, but at one point doubleheaders were a key part of the baseball schedule. Seamheads has a look back at September 7, 1903, when all 16 major league teams were scheduled to play two.

If you watched the Cubs play over the weekend, you might have seen Ryan Dempster trying on the new helmet MLB is promoting to help decrease head injuries suffered via HBP. Player reviews of the new helmets have been almost universally negative, but baseball is going to require all minor leaguers to wear them next season.

The Brewers had pretty good luck convincing draft picks to sign this season, including one player, fifth rounder D'Vontrey Richardson, who had to be convinced to give up football at Florida State. Jonathan Mayo has a look at the decision two sport athletes face.

Ever wonder what broadcasters do to prepare for games? Alyson Footer has the details and pictures.

Before you go any farther, take a moment today to be happy for what you have and to remember how quickly it can all go away: Jonah Keri has the story of a rollover car accident he somehow survived over the weekend. Keri is due to become the father of twins sometime in the coming weeks.

Apparently it's been a good week for harrowing experiences: Hal McCoy has the story of Aaron Harang and a Reds' equipment manager's drive from Pittsburgh to Cincinnati prior to Harang's appendectomy.

Hall of Very Good recently interviewed Jeff Cirillo, who spent many years as a Brewer position player and one day as an opposing pitcher. It's a good read.

Speaking of Jeffs, if you need a Jeff Sackmann fix, he's got three posts up on his personal blog previewing the US Open, which begins today.

On this day in 1996 the Brewers made a pretty good trade, sending Kevin Seitzer to the Indians for Jeromy Burnitz, who hit 165 home runs over six season as a Brewer. On this day in 2002, though, they made a pretty bad trade, sending Mark Loretta (who would go one to become a two time All Star) to the Astros for Wayne Franklin and Keith Ginter.

Happy birthday today to former Brewers Gabe Kapler (34), Hideo Nomo (41) and Tom Candiotti (52).

Oh, and with summer coming to a close, you're running out of opportunities to use your car as a dehyrdrator.

Drink up.