SB Nation - Daniel Murphy

Down on the Farm: Snippets from Baseball America's Top 10 Lists

raygu — Sun, 13 Dec 2009 21:00:17 -0000

Like I mentioned yesterday, I decided to subscribe to Baseball America for the next 3 months so I can stay on top of their Top 10 lists, while I wait for Santa to deliver their 2010 Baseball Prospect Handbook. They completed their Top 10s for the National League teams last week, so today I bring you a few snippets from their writeups.

We may see these guys called up as early as spring training and as late as August/September:

Jenrry Mejia, SP, NYM

Mejia's fastball ranges from 90-96 mph, and it hit 98 on a handful of occasions in 2009. He's able to maintain his velocity late into games, and his fastball has so much cutting and sinking action that it befuddles hitters. He induces a lot of groundouts and broken bats. Mejia's changeup is a plus pitch at times, resembling a splitter with its 81-84 velocity and drop. Though he's not particularly tall by righthander standards, he has a good angle to the plate and throws downhill. In 210 pro innings, he has allowed just six homers. Mejia does a good job of pitching inside, and he generally stays composed with traffic on the bases.

Ike Davis, 1B, NYM

The Mets entered the offseason with Daniel Murphy set to open 2010 as their first baseman and Davis headed to Triple-A Buffalo. He should make his big league debut later in the year and eventually supplant Murphy as New York's starter.

More after the jump:

Starlin Castro, SS, CHC

Castro's performance has drawn him comparisons with the likes of Tony Fernandez, Edgar Renteria, Miguel Tejada—and even Derek Jeter. Castro covers the plate well for a young hitter and does a nice job of staying inside the ball and using the entire field. He consistently puts the barrel of the bat on the ball and has a knack for making adjustments. Though he had just 32 extra-base hits in 2009, Castro has the power potential to double that total once he matures physically. He has strong hands and wrists, and he's starting to pull and drive more pitches. He has the plus speed to make things happen on the bases.

Derek Norris, C, WAS

Norris projects as an above-average offensive player in the big leagues, and if he can become an average defender, he can be an all-star. He should be fully healthy for spring training and will start 2010 at high Class A Potomac.

Kyle Drabek, SP. PHI

Drabek could be a power reliever in the Tom Gordon mode, particularly if the Phillies need him in 2010. His aptitude and athleticism make it more likely that he'll improve that pitch and fulfill his profile as a No. 2 or 3 starter. He'll open the season in Triple-A.

Non-Tendered Players Of Note

Sam Page — Sun, 13 Dec 2009 11:00:29 -0000

More photos » by Gregory Smith - AP

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Kelly Johnson--Since Mike Fontenot got a contract, Kelly Johnson is my new guy. He's got all the makings of a good bench-guy: left-handed and defensively versatile. As a secondbaseman, Johnson has the bat for the position, but a suspect glove, basically what you might expect from the Daniel Murphy 2B project that never was, and not my dream replacement for Castillo. Still, given his nice combination of discipline and power, "platooning" him with Castillo and using him to spell Francoeur versus the occasional righty would be effective. If the Mets sign KJ, I predict he takes Castillo's job no latter than June.

Matt Capps--Capps will never live up to the closer billing he inherited in Pittsburgh, but he has consistently posted xFIPs ~4.00 since making it to the majors. An inconsistent fastball lead to Capps getting tagged for a lot of homers last year, but I guarantee, with a more liberal budget, the Pirates held onto this guy. The Mets have some holes to fill in their pen, and they could do (and probably will do) a lot worse than Capps.

Jack Cust--I'm torn. If a team gets Jack Cust to accept a bench role, there won't be a better lefty pinch-hitter in the majors. That said, Cust will probably look for a DH job elsewhere, and the last-in-UZR Mets might want to look for another type of fourth "outfielder."

Ryan Garko--Mets fans are already clamoring for Ryan Garko as the perfect platoon-mate for Daniel Murphy. He has a .885 OPSvL and a reasonable 1.17 platoon ratio, so the ability to hit lefties is real. Garko, however, has no other attractive talents. He can't field, play anything but first, hit righties, or run. Keeping him on the bench just to relieve Murphy against lefties isn't a very productive use of a roster spot, especially since Manuel will end up pinch-hitting him against righties too often. If anyone wants to convince me Garko is more deserving of a roster spot than Nick Evans, who hits lefties nearly as well, with the added ability to play outfield and emergency catcher, good luck.

As an aside, I'm still perturbed at how easily Mets fans accept this Daniel Murphy-platoon garbage as a good plan at firstbase. What if the Bears are who we thought they were, and Daniel Murphy reprises his role as the worst offensive firstbaseman in the league? What if Ike Davis isn't the super-star of the future? As fans, we often don't realize just how possible these outcomes are. Here's a novel idea I threw out earlier: go get a real firstbaseman. Anyone? No? All I'm saying is, if the Phillies acquire Roy Halladay, I think the only reasonable--no, patriotic--thing to do is trade the farm for Adrian Gonzalez.

Garret Atkins--Although a incentive-laden deal would be tempting, I still have trouble finding where Atkins would fit on the bench. He's basically Ryan Garko with more upside, but also considerably larger and more likely downside.

Ryan Langerhans--The Mariners replaced Endy Chavez with Ryan Langerhans and the Mariners are smart, so let's do that too. Good BB% and decent power make for a league-average hitter with tremendous defensive ability.

Request any I skipped, and I might add them.

MLB Trade Rumors: Jason Bay to the Mets?

raygu — Fri, 11 Dec 2009 14:00:28 -0000

by Rob Carr - AP

3 months ago: Boston Red Sox's Jason Bay, right, is congratulated by third base coach DeMarlo Hale (35) after hitting a solo home run against the Baltimore Orioles during the fourth inning of a baseball game, Friday, Sept. 18, 2009, in Baltimore. (AP Photo/Rob Carr)

View full size photo »

SI.com's Jon Heyman reported, via Twitter, yesterday that the Mets are not going to get into the bidding for Matt Holliday, but did make a bid for slugger Jason Bay:

#mets didnt want to get into protracted talks with holliday. also believe bay, as pull hitter with loft, fits citi field OK about 5 hours ago from web
#mets offered #bay 4 years for about $65 million, give or take. they'd probably have to bump it to 5 yrs to get him.

It was also reported that the Mets made an offer to catcher Bengie Molina. The Mets apparently want to sign one of the three biggest free agents in this year's free agent class.

Should the Mets sign both Bay and Molina, they would have a pretty solid lineup:

Jason Bay

Bengie Molina

Jeff Franceour

Daniel Murphy

Bay has never hit at the new Citifield, but as a Pirate, he went 5-15-.303-.382-.576-.957 at the old Shea Stadium. Bay's career home/road splits are a picture of consistency as he has hit .282-.387-.507-.893 at home (PNC Park and Fenway Park) and .278-.366-.532-.898 on the road in his career.

Bay's 2009 season was very productive even though his BA was a low .267. He went 36-119-.267-.384-.537-.921. Bay's BB% (15%), K% (30.5%) and ISO% (.269) were all at or close to career highs for him. Bay benefitted from a 49.1% FB% and a 19.7% HR/FB% in 2009.

Shouild Bay sign with the Mets, I do not see him hitting 30 HRs in 2010, but can see a solid 25-100 season from him assuming the Mets don't experience the numbers of injuries that plagued the team in 2009.

I was trading emails with Fake Teams reader DB11 today, and we agreed that Bay's NL-only league (UBA) auction value could be in the $30-$35 range in 2010 should he sign with the Mets.

Poll

Can Jason Bay hit 30 HRs in 2010 playing his home games at Citifield?

A Potentially Bizarre Lineup

Sam Page — Fri, 11 Dec 2009 01:28:00 -0000

A thought I just had: if the Mets sign Bay, Molina, and, for the sake of argument, Nick Johnson, this would be the lineup, sorted by 2009 walk rate:

Nick Johnson 17.8% (1st in MLB)

Jason Bay 15.0%

Carlos Beltran 13.2%

Luis Castillo 12.4%

David Wright 12.2%

Jose Reyes 10.9%

--League Avg: 8.89%--

Jeff Francoeur: 3.7% (fourth worst in MLB)

Bengie Molina: 2.6% (last in MLB)

Daniel Murphy, the more likely firstvbaseman, had av7.0% mark, although he could really range from Francoeur-esque discipline to above-average, depending on which Murphy shows up in 2010. Imagine facing that kind of dropoff as a pitcher. I predict: Jeff Francoeur, .305 OBP, 150 RBIs.

Scott Boras for Mets GM

Sam Page — Thu, 10 Dec 2009 22:23:52 -0000

Steve Popper gives insight from a Mets' official as to the team's thinking in offering Jason Bay a (rumored) 4 year/$65MM contract. Among the notable points from the piece:

The Mets wanted a bat and with Daniel Murphy locked it at first base

Daniel Murphy: .741 OPS. I guess if the Mets finally get a decent left fielder, they need to put the big offensive downside in the only more important offensive position. You know, just to make things interesting.

- They think his swing fits Citi Field.

He's a righty pull-hitter, which (we think) is slightly better than being a left pull-hitter in Citi Field. That's a consideration, but not really a deal breaker. If they really want to get some righty pull-power, and to replace Castillo, might I suggest Jose Lopez.

- Despite the numbers, they like him defensively over Holliday.

That's not surprising.

- Again, despite what Boras said, they insist he is a better athlete than Holliday.

However, despite Bay's citizenship, they insist Holliday is more Canadian.

- Have we mentioned that the Mets don’t have to deal with Boras if they go for Holliday.

You haven't, but good point.

Well I'm not so sure they're just bidding on bay to bring down Holliday's price now.

The Race To "In The Best Shape Of His Life"

James Kannengieser — Wed, 02 Dec 2009 20:00:17 -0000

One of the great clichés of spring training is the declaration that Player X is "in the best shape of his life." Usually a sportswriter conveys the message but it's not uncommon for the player to deliver it himself. We're far away from pitchers and catchers but this hot stove season is exasperating. A poll to determine who people think will be the first Met declared "in the best shape of his life" (or some variant) is more attractive to me right now then fretting over a rumor by some random dude who Tweeted that the Mets want to sign Johnny Damon. Here are some candidates, followed by the poll. Feel free to add other suggestions/justifications:

Oliver Perez - He has to be the favorite in this race. After about as disastrous a 2009 as possible, and reports that he let himself go during the World Baseball Classic, Ollie is spending the offseason in Arizona at the Athletes Performance Institute. For $12 million a year, he better be in the best shape of this life by March 2010 if he has any pride in what he does.

Francisco Rodriguez - I have no way of confirming this, but it appeared that Frankie put on a few pounds this past season, at least compared to his Angels days. More importantly, and verifiably, his peripherals slipped across the board. Strange, factoring his switch from the tougher AL to the NL. His velocity didn't slip though, and in fact slightly increased from 2008. A fit Frankie would be pumped up and ready to earn that vesting option from hell.

Daniel Murphy - Discussion of Murphy's work ethic became banal awhile ago. He would contend for this crown in any year, if only because people seem to love writing about his killer drive for success. He also has something to prove next season, especially if the Mets don't sign a free agent first baseman.

Jose Reyes - Jose might be this year's version of Luis Castillo. He suffered an injury and seemed to draw the ire of the fans, for various reasons. A report of Jose being in the best shape of his life might be disconcerting - it implies that he trained like an animal. I'd rather hear reports that he was cautious and didn't train too hard or too early. He has million dollar legs and they need to be taken care of. However, given his intensity and love for the game it wouldn't be surprising to see him first to earn the "best shape" moniker.

Jeff Francoeur - Just because.

Dark Horse: Nick Evans - Nasty Nick couldn't do anything to grab Jerry Manuel's attention in late 2009 so he needs to make a splash this spring. His plan should be to become so ripped that no one, not even Professor Jerry, will be able to ignore his flawlessly toned pectorals, biceps and quads. Piazza-esque batting practice displays in Port St. Lucie will follow. Free weights and 50 Gram Slams are on the path to glory for young Nick.

Poll

Who will be first to be declared "in the best shape of his life"?

Oliver Perez

338 votes

Francisco Rodriguez

25 votes

Daniel Murphy

24 votes

Jose Reyes

99 votes

Jeff Francoeur

39 votes

Nick Evans

13 votes

Other

13 votes

551 votes | Poll has closed

Down on the Farm: Snippets from MLB.com

raygu — Tue, 01 Dec 2009 18:00:12 -0000

I've been waiting for the MLB.com beat writers to start writing their normal offseason Inbox articles, and today a bunch of them responded. The Mets beat writer Marty Noble and and the Marlin's Joe Frisaro were the only ones writing the Inbox articles until today.

Here are a few snippets regarding some of the top prospects:

Mark Bowman, Braves:

Can the Braves move Chipper Jones to first base and maybe look for a third baseman?
-- Edward G., Santiago, Dominican Republic

Chipper has said numerous times that he'd accept a move to the other corner if the Braves had a better third-base option. While they don't currently have a better option in their system, they could be tempted to make this move if they were to grab Chone Figgins, Adrian Beltre or Pedro Feliz off the free-agent market.

But with the strong possibility that Freddie Freeman could be ready to assume his role as the everyday first baseman by the start of the 2011 season, where would you then play Chipper during the final two years of his contract?

Ken Gurnick, Dodgers:

It sounds like the Dodgers already have no chance at trading for Roy Halladay. If their farm system is so good, why can't they swing deals for big-name players the way the Yankees, Mets and Red Sox do?
-- Seth F., Vero Beach, Fla.

Actually, they made one of the biggest trades for a big-name player in recent years in 2008 -- for Manny Ramirez. In the case of Halladay, if the Blue Jays insist on a Major League starting pitcher in return -- and why wouldn't they? -- then the Dodgers are not a fit. That's the Dodgers' need, not a surplus. General manager Ned Colletti has said he doesn't believe he can improve his starting rotation by trading away a pitcher out of that starting rotation. One thing you haven't heard in recent years is that the Dodgers have blocked young talent, because their young talent has become the nucleus of the team. So there isn't a surplus of Major League-ready players to trade for marquee players. And one who would qualify in that category, Blake DeWitt, is likely to get a shot to be the starting second baseman next year.

More after the jump:

Marty Noble, Mets:

Daniel Murphy is not the answer at first base. The club should re-sign Carlos Delgado for one year, allowing him to demonstrate whether he has anything left. I believe he is an all around better player than Murphy, who seems like he cares, but I'm convinced he at best is a bench player. They should wait for Ike Davis to develop.
-- John A., Whitestone, N.Y.

I'm not sure about Delgado. The Mets have questions about his ability to move at first base. Off what I saw in 2007 and the first half of 2008, I have questions about his willingness to move. His bat seemed potent in the games he played before his hip surgery developed in May.

I suspect you and the club aren't on the same page about Murphy. And I don't see how Murphy and Delgado fit in the same roster, particularly if a right-handed-hitting first baseman is needed. But you and the club seem to agree on Davis. And I have the same sense. Give him time to develop.

Carrie Muskat, Cubs:

Have you heard if Ryan Theriot has been working on his footwork at second base? I believe Jeff Baker has more value off the bench with Aramis Ramirez having his shoulder issues and such.
-- Aaron L., Chicago

Theriot has been told to dust off his second baseman's glove because he could be switching to second base if the Cubs decide top prospect Starlin Castro is ready for the big leagues. Theriot has played second before in the Major Leagues, last doing so in 2007 (37 games). I agree about Baker being a valuable player to have on the bench.

Adam McCalvy, Brewers:

How does the addition of Carlos Gomez affect Lorenzo Cain's future with the organization?
-- Michael Holyoke, Thiensville, Wis.

It slows Cain's progress to the Majors, though injuries in 2009 probably took care of that already. Cain missed time with a left knee injury and then struggled to trust the knee when he returned, according to Nichols. Cain will begin the year at Double-A Huntsville or perhaps Triple-A Nashville while Gomez gets a chance to dig a foothold in Milwaukee. Remember, Gomez is raw himself (at least offensively) so there remains plenty of opportunity for guys like Cain or Logan Schafer or Caleb Gindl.

Jenifer Langosch, Pirates:

Why can't we look at moving Ryan Doumit back to right field to fill our offensive needs rather than trade him? -- Bob, Fombell, Pa.

That would seem to be a viable possibility, but not one the Pirates have shown interest in really exploring further for whatever reason. When I asked Huntington about the possibility of Doumit playing right field, he said the organization sees it as a possibility right now only on days when Doumit is off behind the plate. As a result, don't be surprised if you do see Doumit make a handful of spot starts in right when he isn't catching, in order to keep his bat in the lineup. You'll remember Doumit did just that one time last September.

Keep in mind, too, that the Pirates' right fielder is likely to soon be Jose Tabata. So, if the Pirates do pursue a corner outfielder this winter, it would likely be for a short-term fit. It might not be the best option to move Doumit to right knowing that he wouldn't be able to stay there but for a few months.

Jenifer Langosch, Pirates:

Where does Milledge fit into next year's lineup? I think he played a pretty strong second half this past year, and showed some improvements in his game. Is he an outfielder of the future, along with Andrew McCutchen?
-- Jake C., Kent, Ohio

If the Pirates' starting lineup is made up of players currently within the organization (meaning no additional offseason adds), I could very well see Milledge slotting into the fifth spot in the batting order, behind Doumit. Milledge finished the season by hitting .311 in his final 44 games, and there's no reason to believe he can't sustain offensive numbers like that for a longer period of time. Also, both Milledge and the Pirates' staff expect him to show more power in 2010 now that his right hand has returned to full strength after an early-season injury.

I do think you can mention Milledge as one of the club's potential outfielders of the future. He was not brought in as a placeholder. In fact, at this time next year, I'd expect we'll be talking about a pretty intriguing outfield trio of Milledge, McCutchen and Tabata.

Mets interested in free agent Russell Branyan

Eli Greenspan — Tue, 24 Nov 2009 03:01:25 -0000

More photos » by Ben Margot - AP

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Tim Brown of MLB Yahoo! Sports is reporting that the Mets have interest in free agent first baseman Russell Branyan. Branyan put up career numbers with the Mariners this past season, hitting 31 home runs with a .347 on-base percentage.

	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG
2009 - Russell Branyan	116	431	64	108	21	1	31	76	58	149	2	0	.251	.347	.520

Adding Branyan means that Daniel Murphy would start in the outfield, where he struggled mightily this past season. He rejected a one-year offer from the Mariners two weeks ago, and if he comes at a reduced price, the Mets may make a move.

Where The Mets Might Fit In The Young Trade Market

Sam Page — Mon, 09 Nov 2009 11:00:29 -0000

In a weak free agent class, and maybe Omar Minaya's last year with the team, one would expect the Mets to make at least one splash in the trade market. So far, four semi-major trades have gone through, before the BBWAA has even announced its yearly award winners. The Mets didn't really "lose out" on any of those four players, but the trades do provide some insight into the evolving market, and how the Mets fit in.

Matt Cerrone noted in metsblog's coverage of the J.J. Hardy trade the other day that three of the four trades featured arbitration eligible players (Teahen, Hardy, Hermida) and cited a Buster Olney piece that claimed teams were eager to avoid the "broken" arbitration system. While I'll accept avoiding arbitration as a partial explanation, it ignores some of the other interesting angles of these deals. The idea that the team dealing the arbitration-eligible player decides between only two options: prospects or non-tendering, implies that they are desperate to deal the player and would accept any trade return. These three deals didn't bear that out.

Firstly, the Hermida deal most clearly fits the Olney-mold--the Marlins didn't want to pay arbitration money for a replacement level outfielder without a bunch of unrealized potential. Such a trade is standard procedure for the Marlins, however, and hardly--if at all--suggests an overarching market shift. From the perspective of the Red Sox, Hermida represented a high-upside reserve outfielder that cost minimal talent and money. If more arbitration-eligible players like Hermida are easily available, big-market teams like the Mets would obviously benefit in taking a flier on a few of them.

Mark Teahen, similar to Hermida in his recent replacement-level performance and past value, fetched Chris Getz and Josh Fields. While Getz lost his starting job to Gordon Beckham and Josh Fields just lost his starting job, both players having a starting job in the first place reflects track records of minor league success and some major league competency. Both players could be decent placeholders on an uncertain Royals infield, with the potential to be more. Dave Cameron went as far as calling this trade "fantastic" for the Royals, which may seem hyperbolic, but his analysis is pretty spot-on.

With both Hermida and Teahen, their respective teams were trying to avoid arbitration. The arbitration system is set to award those players salaries equal to or slightly more than they would be worth, but that seemingly has more to do with Hermida and Teahen being broken, than it does the arbitration system. Both player had performed well below expectation and past levels of performance, particularly defensively, which the arbitration process inherently undervalues, so they inevitably were going to get salaries bigger than they deserved, based on service time alone. Getting back to the original Olney/Cerrone point, I think the cause is correct, but the effect may be wrong. Yes, the arbitration system is broken, in that it will errantly award Teahen and Hermida above-market contracts, but that doesn't mean there will necessarily be a bunch of free, young, and talented arbitration-eligible players available, as Matt seems to suggest. It just means that some crappy arbitration-eligible players will be available, and not necessarily for nothing, as the Teahen trade indicated.

J.J. Hardy is actually a good counter-example. Tommy Bennett used the Hardy trade as a springboard to explain why, in economic terms, players of his caliber would not be part of Olney's "avalanche of non-tenders," but we have the benefit of already knowing the Brewers weren't operating under this prospect or non-tender paradigm. They were trading Hardy just as much because it saved money, as they had a potentially equal replacement in Alcides Escobar in waiting. And while some may have found Carlos Gomez an underwhelming return, in terms of strict value, the trade was completely fair. Gomez is under team control for 4 more years and is, because of his elite defense, at least a 1.5 WAR centerfielder. Hardy, who is ~4 WAR at SS, is the superior player now, but is more costly and a free agent in two years. The Kalkman trade calculator method, which subsumes these factors, judged Gomez a more valuable asset, and given his offensive upside (outfield Jimmy Rollins?), he seems like a more than fair return.

What this trade indicates, if anything, is that teams are willing to make perceptually unfair trades for less-stable assets of approximately equal value. It also perhaps shows a preference to fill one hole on the roster, as opposed to acquire a few more players that may be more valuable in theory, but redundant on the roster. Whereas proven-star for young player trades typically required a large package of elite prospects to get done, the Hardy trade, and even the Cliff Lee trade before it, seemingly suggest a move toward proper evaluation of young players, in which either a good-not-great package suffices or one stud younger player gets traded (Sanchez/Alderson?).

Maybe I'm reading too much into one trade, but this development would seemingly benefit the Mets more than a slew of crappy arbitration-eligible players hitting free agency. While the Mets don't have a set of young players with major-league success like Gomez (yay 2009 in-season development failure!), they do have a set of interesting tweener types with starter potential (Murphy, Evans, Parnell, Pagan) and a set of near-ready top prospects (Mejia, Davis, Niese, Martinez), whose value could be boosted in this market. While it would probably be selling low on many of those players, with the windows closing on the Mets "core," the Mets could be set up to make several win-now trades that are long-term losses of value. A Halladay trade centered around Mike Pelfrey? Or maybe shopping Daniel Murphy to a team with a thirdbase vacancy? We'll see.

Sam's 2010 Offseason Plan

Sam Page — Wed, 04 Nov 2009 11:00:30 -0000

Take this post for what it is, subject to change and wishful thinking. I intended this plan to be realistic in the sense that all the trades and signings are possible, but not realistic in that I think it's what the Mets will actually do--that's another post for another time. So without further ado:

The Major Moves:

Sign Matt Holliday to a 6/$110 Million contract, starting salary $17MM--Maybe he will only sign for five years, but I think at age 36 he would still be at least an adequate outfielder given his skillset. I already made most of the case for Holliday here, but especially in a year where the Mets have a protected first round pick, he seems like a perfect fit. Jason Bay will be a DH in a few years, given how precipitously his fielding has declined. He's an acceptable backup plan, only if he'll take significantly fewer years, which he probably won't. The way Mets fans deified non-entities like Xavier Nady makes me think a they'll go crazy having a legitimately great corner-outfielder for the first time in a long time
Trade Bobby Parnell and Wilmer Flores to the Rays for Carlos Peña--I don't understand why Mets fans think it is smart or even efficient to resign firstbase to being played by someone like Daniel Murphy, if we sign Matt Holliday. It's not like the Mets were just middle-of-the-pack offensively last year, they were bottom of the barrel. With the largest payroll in the National League, why not try and fill all the team's holes with at least players who are average or better at their position? The Rays are motivated to sell Peña, being in his walk-year and making $10.5MM. They have a few a infielders on their bench, who could start on most teams (Aybar, Rodriguez), so they'll be most interested in a cheap set-up caliber reliever. Parnell fits that description easily--he's still making league minimum and posted a 3.80 tRA in the bullpen his rookie season. Wilmer Flores makes up the difference in value; he's the kind of super-athletic shortstop prospect the Rays love to hoard. For the Mets, Pena solves the "not enough homers" problem; he tied Mark Teixeira for the AL homerun crown, despite missing nearly all of September with a fractured hand. He has elite plate-discipline and the batting average will probably rebound a bit. If healthy, Peña is also an above-average defender and could easily be worth 4 WAR over a full season.
Sign Rich Harden to a 1-year/$10 million contract with incentives and a mutual option for a second season--See the above link on Matt Holliday for why I also don't want John Lackey. The best way to not get locked into bad contracts is to not give them. A one year deal to Rich Harden is the type of gamble a team with the Mets payroll should take. He's injury prone, having pitched just 140 innings the last two seasons, but in just 140 innings he can be worth 4+ WAR. He was just 1.8 WAR this season according to fangraphs, but that was due to bad luck with homers, which is reflected by his xFIPs being extremely consistent from year-to-year. Any argument to sign Lackey instead of Harden proves how overrated past durability is with pitchers. Coupling Harden with a good above-replacement contingency plan(s) likely costs less than Lackey, is incredibly more valuable than Lackey, will likely provide more innings than Lackey, and doesn't carry the huge risk of giving an injury prone pitcher in his 30s a multi-year contract.
Trade Jeff Francoeur to the Cubs for Mike Fontenot.--The Cubs will eventually dump Milton Bradley, and will look to replace him with an "RBI-guy" in rightfield. RBI's are Jeff Francoeur's specialty. Mike Fontenot magically amassed 3 WAR in under 250 plate appearances in 2007. In 2008, the Cubs gave him more responsibility then leaned toward trading him when his batting average sunk. As mentioned in that article, they still view him as trade bait. With such high BABIPs in past seasons, his batting average will likely rebound. I'd bet his true skill is somewhere in between .296 wOBA player of last year, or the .395 wOBA player of the year before, maybe the league average hitter of 2006. Even if he is only an average hitter, though, his fantastic defense (9.6 UZR/150) will make him more valuable than Castillo. Having a good defensive secondbaseman will be even more important with the young groundball pitchers Pelfrey and Niese in the rotation next year.

The Minor Moves:

Sign Carl Pavano 1 year/$6 million dollar contract--Pavano will likely half to accept another short-term commitment, because of his surface numbers and lingering injury concerns, but he actually pitched quite well last season. His 4.00 FIP reflects all-around good peripherals, consistent with his career numbers. Citi Field might help suppress his high HR/FB%, and a move to the National League can only help his strikeouts. At 3.7 WAR last season, he would have easily been the most valuable pitcher on the Mets. He'll likely be the best value on the market, and would solidify a rotation with a lot injury risk.
Sign Kiko Calero 2 years/$5 million dollar contract--Calero quietly posted a 2.38 tRA this season. Here's a pretty good summary on his attractiveness as a free agent, if 2.38 didn't convince you. He would be a definite upgrade over Parnell. I see him signing with the team that offers a multi-year deal.
Sign Adam Everett 1 year/$1 million--Here, I want a player that can step in and start, without dragging the whole team down with his poor play, if Jose's injuries become complicated. His defense isn't what it used to be but it's still great.
Sign Greg Zaun 1 year/$800,000--I waffled on this, but Omir Santos needs to go back to the minors. He's a minor league player who can't hit anything but fastballs, and pitchers will make the adjustment eventually. Zaun provides plate discipline and defense that is negligibly worse than Santos' and somewhat better than Bengie Molina's. Thole may be an adventure in the field, but if it gets too bad, Zaun has the bat to be a starter, without costing Molina-money.
Sign Endy Chavez 1 year/$1.5 million--Our hero. He's like Adam Everett for the outfield! He'll be coming off surgery, so it probably would not even cost this much to sign him. Even if he's lost a step, he's eons better than Francoeur in the field, so much better suited for a bench role.
Sign Shawn Hill 1 year/$400K--He was recently released by the Padres, but he's got a 4.11 career FIP. He's injury prone, but keeping both him and Maine around is a pretty good insurance plan for an already filled-out rotation.
Sign Mike Sweeney 1 year/$600K--Sweeney got his PhD in fixing fractured, mutli-cultural clubhouses from the 2009 Mariners (not that those things are necessarily related, or exactly describe the Mets). Anyone who liked Francoeur for his attitude will love Sweeney. His skills as a right-handed platoon bat are redundant with Nick Evans also around, but he'd be brought in just as much for his intangibles than abilities.
Sign Kelvim Escobar to a 1 year contract with incentives/max value $2.5 million--The former Angels ace is on the recovery path and would add dimension to the pitching staff as a cheap, worthwhile gamble in the bullpen.
Trade Luis Castillo to the Royals for virtually nothing--I'd bet they'd take him. Getting rid of Castillo is a priority, as I think he is a huge risk to totally bust in 2010. His continuing diminished range caps his value at ~1.5 WAR, and indicates his knees really aren't getting any better. He compensated for the lack of speed last year by taking an absurd amount of pitches and hitting a career-high percentage of line drives. There's no reason to expect him to repeat either of those feats in 2010. Sell high.

Overall thoughts:

On the hitting side, the lineup has patience, power, speed, and contact skills without any obvious holes. Never watching that squad would I think, "here's Santos-Cora-Valdez, 1-2-3." The bench re-emphasizes defense, something severely lacking from last year's backups, and features all players good enough to start on some team, but who aren't expecting starting jobs. Of the 26 players listed, 8 could be considered rotation candidates, which gives flexibility on who makes the opening-day roster and in case of an injury, no Pat Misches or Livan Hernadezes have to start. There's no obviously crappy reliever who fits in under the guise of "long man" but has no other usefulness or upside. Most importantly, this roster allows the AAA class of prospects (Davis, Martinez, Mejia, and Holt) to stay in AAA as depth options or emergency trade candidates, in case Harden, Pavano, Maine, and Hill all blow out their elbows. I could see 95 wins, and with good health, the upside for much more. Now go wild with your own proposals.