SB Nation - Fernando Martinez

Down on the Farm: Part 2 of Interview with Adam Foster from Project Prospect

raygu — Sat, 05 Dec 2009 14:00:16 -0000

Here is the part 2 of the two part interview with Adam Foster from Project Prospect. Foster and the guys over at Project Prospect recently posted their top 15 catching prospects, so head on over to Project Prospect and check out their top 15 rankings.

Fake Teams: Aside from the AFL, what prospects that you have seen this year made the biggest leap forward? Step back?

Adam Foster: James Darnell is a guy who I went well out of my way to see this year. His swing really impressed me at Minor League Spring Training. He's very athletic with a good chance of sticking at third base. And his power potential is outstanding.

Some of my colleagues who are really into college statistics pointed Darnell out as a guy who may have fallen further than he should have in the draft - he wasn't healthy his junior season. Then I bumped into Darnell's Cape Cod League coach in Phoenix one night and he said he wanted Darnell over Justin Smoak on his Cape team.

I'm not saying that Darnell is a lock to become a superstar. But he's one of the best prospects in baseball. And people who aren't giving him that kind of recognition probably haven't done their homework.

As far as guys who took a step back, unfortunately Tim Alderson was a different pitcher this year than last. He lost some movement on his fastball. And his pinpoint accuracy left him. There are guys who chose to give up some velocity to gain movement. Alderson may have gone the opposite direction in 2009, I'm not sure. But even though his curveball is already a plus pitch, he wasn't giving High-A or Double-A hitters much trouble last season. He definitely has elite control. I just don't think he's a big league pitcher without outstanding command.

More after the jump:

Fake Teams: I read in your Rising Stars game chat that you and your colleagues are not as high on the Phillies outfield prospect Domonic Brown. What are your reasons?

Adam Foster: Guys who are outstanding fast-twitch athletes can become overrated in a hurry. People like to assume that they're athletic enough to do things that other players can't. In Brown's case, there's some false information floating around that he's an elite defender. He has a very good arm and he's fast, but he doesn't get good reads or take good routes. Those skills can't really be learned. So it's highly unlikely that he'll be more than an average defensive right fielder.

Additionally, he's really not very coordinated - compared to his peers. My first reaction when I saw him bat was that he looked awkward. He gets in a crouch to try to shrink down his big strike zone (Brown is 6-foot-5). And while he has a lot of bat speed, is patient, and recognizes pitches well, he's not going to be an above-average contact hitter. There's not much he can do about that. He doesn't have very good bat control.

Keep in mind that Brown is an elite prospect. He's in the 99^th percentile for his class. I'm just dissecting the heck out of him here. If you compare him to the other guys who are at the head of the class, I don't think he stands out as one who's going to become a star. He's very good and a likely bet to become an average big leaguer. But there are a dozen or so hitters out there who I see as better prospects than him.

Fake Teams: What players who underwhelmed in 2009 do you expect to jump back into the limelight in 2010?

Adam Foster: Reese Havens is a good one to start with. He moved to second base in the Arizona Fall League and looked solid at the position. He's a polished, well-rounded hitter who can play up-the-middle defense. He was a first rounder. And had a successful junior season in college - I'd be more confident in him if he was better his sophomore year, though. His baseball resume puts him in elite company. I'll be surprised if he doesn't break out in 2010.

Don't sleep on Jon Niese and Kevin Mulvey. They are solid bets to turn into useful big league starters. You could also end up looking like a genius if you snatch up Kellen Kulbacki cheap now that a lot of people have forgotten about him. Nick Noonan was one of the youngest players in High-A and has a lot of potential. Ivan De Jesus may not be a fantasy stud, but if you play in a deep dynasty or sim league, don't forget about him - and I'm sure you haven't ;).

Fake Teams: What prospects do you feel who should be getting more press based on their talent/performance?

Adam Foster: Josh Bell is just starting to get the attention he deserves. I guess you lose some street cred when you get traded for a reliever. But the Dodgers are clearly working under the win-now model, so I wouldn't hold it against him. He can play third base and has a lot of power. If Pedro Alvarez and Brett Wallace can't stick at third - and they probably won't - then Bell starts looking like a pretty good pick for the best "true" third base prospect in the minors. I'll have to compare my video of him and Darnell this offseason, though.

Brandon Snyder is another guy who has the resume to turn into a solid big leaguer. But you don't hear much talk about him. I'm a big Drew Cumberland believer. Matt Sweeney is a breakout guy. Lorenzo Cain has fallen out of the spotlight but I still see a lot of potential in him. Che-Hsuan Lin gets lost in the Red Sox depth of athletic hitters. Jaff Decker gets overlooked largely due to some old scouting biases.

Fake Teams: Who are your top 5 hitting prospects going into 2010? Who are your top 5 pitching prospects going into 2010?

Adam Foster: At the end of the 2009 season, we ranked Jason Heyward, Carlos Santana, Jesus Montero, and Buster Posey as the game's top five hitting prospects with Dustin Ackley, Desmond Jennings, Fernando Martinez and Mike Stanton on the bubble. Those guys will account for the bulk of - if not all - the spots among our top five hitting prospects entering 2010.

We didn't get to see many of baseball's top pitching prospects at the AFL. And I still want to get better reads on some guys. But Stephen Strasburg and Brian Matusz are clearly at the head of this class. Daniel Hudson and Jeremy Hellickson were two of the most impressive pitchers I saw in 2009 - Hudson for his FB and CH movement; Hellickson for his command. Then it's hard not to like Neftali Feliz' stuff. The five guys I've mentioned were our top five pitching prospects when we put together our October top 25 pitching prospect list. Most of them should also be top five on our 2010 list.

I want to thank Adam for taking the time for this interview.

Baseball America's Top 10 Prospect Lists for 2010

raygu — Thu, 26 Nov 2009 14:00:13 -0000

In addition to the top 20 Prospect lists that SB Nation's John Sickels is writing up over at Minor League Ball, Baseball America and Baseball Prospectus are working on their top 10, or 11 in the case of BP, prospect lists for 2010.

Today, I give you the Baseball America top 10 prospect lists for 2010 for the National League East teams:

Marlins

1. Mike Stanton, of

2. Logan Morrison, 1b

3. Chad James, lhp

4. Matt Dominguez, 3b

5. Gaby Sanchez, 1b/3b

6. Ryan Tucker, rhp

7. Kyle Skipworth, c

8. Isaac Galloway, of

9. Scott Cousins, of

10. Jhan Marinez, rhp

More after the jump:

Nationals

1. Stephen Strasburg, rhp

2. Derek Norris, c

3. Drew Storen, rhp

4. Ian Desmond, ss

5. Danny Espinosa, ss

6. Chris Marrero, 1b

7. Jeff Kobernus, 2b

8. Justin Maxwell, of

9. Michael Burgess, of

10. Destin Hood, of

Phillies

1. Domonic Brown, of

2. Kyle Drabek, rhp

3. Michael Taylor, of

4. Travis D'Arnaud, c

5. Trevor May, rhp

6. Anthony Gose, of

7. Sebastian Valle, c

8. Jarred Cosart, rhp

9. Antonio Bastardo, lhp

10. Domingo Santana, of

Mets

1. Jenrry Mejia, rhp

2. Wilmer Flores, ss

3. Fernando Martinez, of

4. Ike Davis, 1b

5. Brad Holt, rhp

6. Jon Niese, lhp

7. Reese Havens, 2b/ss

8. Josh Thole, c

9. Ruben Tejada, 2b/ss

10. Juan Urbina, lhp

Braves

1. Jason Heyward, of

2. Freddie Freeman, 1b

3. Julio Teheran, rhp

4. Mike Minor, lhp

5. Craig Kimbrel, rhp

6. Christian Bethancourt, c

7. Randall Delgado, rhp

8. Zeke Spruill, rhp

9. Cody Johnson, of

10. Adam Milligan, of

Notes On Baseball America's Top 10 Mets Prospects

Sam Page — Sat, 07 Nov 2009 11:00:28 -0000

As you undoubtedly saw in the fanshots or somewhere else yesterday, Baseball America released its top 10 prospects list for the Mets, with Adam Rubin reprising as the author of the write-up and subsequent chat. Rubin's article didn't provide much insight into the ranking, but the chat cleared a few things up. Here are the things I found most interesting about the list with relevant quotes:

Fernando Martinez, the incumbent #1 prospect for two years, drops to #3 after his best season in the minors (.877 OPS in AAA at age 20). He continued to be chronically injured, tearing his meniscus, as mentioned in the article. Rubin said in the chat, "Fernando Martinez has fallen far enough that the Mets talk about going outside for a left fielder for 2010." That makes me worry the Mets are putting stock into his worthless sample-size major-league audition, because I find it hard to believe an injury could hurt his stock so much in a season where he had a break out. I know it was his fourth straight season with an injury, but on the other hand, that means he's gone from injury prone, projectable, with no results to injury prone, projectable, with good results. Rubin later said, when asked about Martinez no longer being untouchable, " His value is so diminished right now. He's certainly not untouchable, but teams are very concerned because he's been unable to stay healthy for four straight years."
Mejia taking the #1 spot is not surprising, but his being ranked four spots ahead of Holt kind of is. Rubin said this of Holt: "I know a fair amount of the scouts who watch Binghamton regularly during the season. The consensus seems to be that he will be a No. 3 starter in the majors. Here's a report one person gave me on Holt: Good four-seam fastball (88-93 mph, peak 95), curveball (75-78) and changeup (79-81). Command needs work. Wasn't quite the same after missing three weeks with an ankle injury. Has to learn to maintain a consistent release point. He'll add some weight as well which will improve his durability and stamina. Needs to improve from a mental perspective. Often allows situations to get out of hand by compounding problems due to overthrowing. Has to eliminate obsession with strikeouts." Holt supposedly was throwing in the lows 90s peak 98 on his fastball in 2008. When a reader questioned the change in perception later in the chat, Rubin insisted that Holt tops out at 95.
They still love Wilmer Flores, and put him in rightfield on the "Projected 2013 lineup." I wouldn't read into that much, since they basically just throw whatever prospects they can into these projected lineups; they likely will never happen. Take, for instance, the projected lineup for next year according to the 2006 version of this list:

Catcher Francisco Pena

First Base Carlos Delgado

Second Base Anderson Hernandez

Third Base David Wright

Shortstop Jose Reyes

Left Field Lastings Milledge

Center Field Carlos Beltran

Right Field Fernando Martinez

No. 1 Starter Mike Pelfrey

No. 2 Starter Philip Humber

No. 3 Starter John Maine

No. 4 Starter Deolis Guerra

No. 5 Starter Kevin Mulvey

Closer Billy Wagner

Reflects something of a past optimism, as opposed to the 2011 projected lineup, which reflects something of a past delusion:

Catcher Francisco Pena

First Base Fernando Martinez

Second Base Greg Veloz

Third Base David Wright

Shortstop Jose Reyes

Left Field Lastings Milledge

Center Field Carlos Gomez

Right Field Carlos Beltran

No. 1 Starter John Maine

No. 2 Starter Oliver Perez

No. 3 Starter Mike Pelfrey

No. 4 Starter Deolis Guerra

No. 5 Starter Kevin Mulvey

Closer Eddie Kunz

That outfield is awesome, but that pitching staff might be the worst-conceived in history. Also note them sticking Fernando Martinez somewhere, a la Wilmer. I also find it interesting that they projected a healthy Carlos Beltran to be in right field by 2011, but they this year, they put Carlos Beltran with irreparable bone-on-bone knee injuries in CF in 2013.

Speaking of Francisco Pena, apparently he will be left off the top 30 prospects list, per Rubin. Not even Mark and I did that in our ongoing top-26, and I really dislike Francisco Pena as a prospect.
Kirk Niewenhuis got ranked best defensive outfielder, which is encouraging, since the biggest question about his abilities are related to his fielding, not his hitting. Rubin passed along this scouting report: "He will garner comparisons to Curtis Granderson in terms of his position and ability to fill up the stat sheet in many offensive categories. Good opposite field power and a plus overall hitter. Great contact guy. Batted in the leadoff spot at the end of the season with St. Lucie and Binghamton and produced many multi-hit games. Figures to be a 20-20 guy. Good range in center and an average to slightly above average major-league arm." He also cited a scout that compared his mentality to Kirk Gibson's. That's high praise, for a guy that didn't crack the top 10.
Nate Vineyard retired.
Juan Urbina made the top-10 without throwing a professional pitch. Rubin justified ranking him ahead of the more established Jeurys Familia and Kyle Allen, thusly: The Mets spent $1.2 million on Urbina because they believe he's a top-10-caliber prospect. His fastball averages 88-89 mph, with a peak of 91 mph, but he has a clean delivery. Team officials believe the velocity will climb a little as he gets instruction, but that's fine for a lefthander. Familia throws from the opposite side and considerably harder and doesn't have a clean delivery. Allen also is righthanded." I nominate "Allen also is righthanded" to be the go-to non-sequitur at Amazin' Avenue.
The Mets won't push prospects anymore with Tony B gone.
Robbie Shields has grission. Rubin called him the baseball equivalent of a "gym rat," which is a new one.
Jordany Valdespin was named best athlete. He put up good numbers last year in Savannah, but didn't get promoted, so I assumed he must be a bad athlete or something. Guess not.

31 Largest Latin American Signing Bonuses of All Time

Patrick Clark — Mon, 05 Oct 2009 00:39:07 -0000

The Twins signed Dominican SS prospect Miguel Sano to a $3.15 million bonus last week; I'm not sure what's happening with Wagner Mateo, who's $3.1 million deal was recently voided by the Cardinals, but it seems like Sano will be the last member of the 2009 July 2 class to receive a seven-figure bonus. A current list of Latin American amateurs to sign million dollar deals follows after the jump.*

I'm posting it because I couldn't find anything this complete elsewhere, and in general, we need better information on Latin American baseball. That said, the data doesn't tell us much. The July 2 mega-bonus is a new development—I count only six seven-figure bonuses before 2005—and the process of scouting Latin America talent has evolved pretty rapidly.

It's worth noting that we probably shouldn't use these figures to compare Latin prospects to Rule 4 draftees, who are generally two to five years older at signing, and are not afforded the luxury of negotiating as free agents. If you think that Sano would have gotten $3.15 million if his rights were controlled by one team, you haven't read Dejan Kovacevic's excellent, revelatory account of the Sano signing.

Also note that I've excluded Cubans, who have generally played professionally in Cuba before signing with MLB clubs, and who are generally older than the July 2 prospects.

Michael Ynoa, 16, RHP, 2008, Athletics, D.R., $4,250,000
Miguel Sano, 16, SS, 2009, Twins, D.R., $3,150,000
Gary Sanchez, 16, C, 2009, Yankees, D.R., $3,000,000
Rafael Rodriguez, 16, OF, 2008, Giants, D.R., $2,550,000
Yorman Rodriguez, 16, OF, 2008, Reds, VZA, $2,500,000
Wily Mo Peña, 17, OF, 1999, Yankees, D.R., $2,440,000
Joel Guzman, 16, SS, 2001, Dodgers, D.R., $2,255,000
Angel Villalona, 16, 3B, 2006, Giants, D.R., $2,100,00
Juan Duran, 16, OF, 2008, Reds, D.R., $2,000,000
Adys Portillo, 16, RHP, 2008, Padres, VZA, $2,000,000
Guillermo Pimental, 16, CF, 2009, Mariners, D.R., $2,000,000
Jose Vincio, 16, SS, 2009, Red Sox, D.R., $1,950,000
Miguel Cabrera, 16, IF, 1999, Marlins, VZA, $1,800,000
Jesus Montero, 16, C, 2006, Yankees, VZA, $1,650,000
Jackson Melian, 16, OF, 1996, Yankees, VZA, $1,600,000
Jurickson Profar, 16, SS, 2009, Rangers, Curaçao, $1,550,000
Ricardo Aramboles, 16, RHP, 1998, Yankees, D.R., $1,520,000
Luis Sardinas, 16, SS, 2009, Rangers, VZA, 1,500,000
Michael Almanzar, 16, SS, 2007, Red Sox, D.R., $1,500,000
Esmailyn Gonzalez, 16, SS, 2006, Nationals, D.R., $1,400,000
Fernando Martinez, 16, OF, 2005, Mets, D.R., $1,400,000
Willy Aybar, 16, IF, 2000, Dodgers, D.R., $1,400,000
Carlos Triunfel, 16, SS, 2006, Mariners, D.R., $1,300,000
Luis Domoromo, 16, OF, 2008, Padres, VZA, $1,250,000
Juan Urbina, 16, LHP, 2009, Mets, VZA, $1,250,000
Chesler Cuthbert, 16, 3B, 2009, Royals, Nicaragua, $1,200,000
Roberto De la Cruz, 16, 3B, 2008, Cardinals, D.R., $1,100,000
Julio Morban, 16, OF, 2008, Mariners, D.R., $1,100,000
Kelvin De Leon, 16, OF, 2007, Yankees, D.R., $1,100,000
Alvaro Aristy, 17, SS, 2008, Padres, D.R., $1,000,000
Jharmidy De Jesus, 17, SS, 2007, Mariners, D.R., $1,000,000

*If I'm missing any, or if you spot any inaccuracies, please let me know.

The Importance Of The 2010 Offseason For The Mets' Offense

Sam Page — Wed, 19 Aug 2009 10:00:20 -0000

With few reasons to keep talking about this train-wreck season, let's peek ahead at 2010 and the long winter in between then and now. First, assuming the Mets skip the offseason, this team of in-house options would emerge next spring. This mediocre squad provides a good baseline for both the payroll and talent ~~Minaya~~ the Mets GM will be building on. (h/t USSMariner for the format)

Pos	Name	PA/IP	WAR	SAL
C	Santos	500	1.0	0.4
1B	Murphy	600	0.5	0.4
2B	Castillo	500	1.5	6
SS	Reyes	600	5.0	9
3B	Wright	650	6.5	10
LF	Pagan	500	1.5	0.8
CF	Beltran	300	3.0	18.5
RF	Francoeur	600	0.5	3.5
IF	Hernandez	250	0.2	0.4
IF	Evans	200	0.5	0.4
OF	Reed	200	-0.3	1
OF	Martinez	200	0.5	0.4
SP	Santana	210	4.5	21
SP	Pelfrey	180	2.5	1.3
SP	Niese	150	2.0	0.4
SP	Perez	150	1.0	12
SP	Nieve	100	0.5	0.4
CL	Rodriguez	70	1.0	11.5
RP	Feliciano	70	0.8	2.5
RP	Green	60	0.5	0.5
RP	Parnell	60	0.5	0.4
RP	Stokes	50	0.3	0.5
RP	Muniz	30	0.0	0.4

Using the estimation that a team of replacement-level players would win 50 games, this team would be expected to be in the 80-84 win range, depending on your relative optimism, or lack thereof, regarding Santos and Francoeur. That projection passes the gut check, as it would just be this sub-.500 team plus half a season of Beltran, a healthy Reyes, and something resembling a rotation. Remember, however, that a team can subtract, just as it can add, wins from a team, depending on the complementary talent (see: Hernandez, Livan -1.6 WAR; rest of 2009 Mets).

Sticking just with what they've got, however, the Mets are a .500 team with a $102 million payroll. That leaves ~$20MM to spend, based on the reported 120MM budget. Using the common estimation that each win is worth $4-5MM in today's market, the Mets are in a position to add 4-5 wins, making them a 85-89 win team. While 89 wins would be a dramatic improvement, it would not be a particularly convincing challenge to the Phillies+Cliff Lee. If John Ricco does indeed take over the General Manager duties in the offseason, his charge will to be extract better than market value out his $20 million with a plan for the future.

Focusing just on the hitting side of things, however, the Mets, headed by Ricco or Minaya or whoever, have a unique opportunity to creatively fill some long-term needs. As it stands, the Mets three biggest areas of need will be 1. firstbase, 2. corner outfielder, 3. starting pitcher, 4. catcher. Ignoring those last two for the time-being, the two biggest areas for improvement are typical power positions, where teams usually stick their biggest bats. What the Mets do this offseason could determine the look of the offense (and defense) for the next several years. That being said, here are a few routes the team could pursue:

1. Trade for a superstar about to finish his arbitration years:

Many speculate about the Mets pursuing Carl Crawford this offseason, entering his $10MM option year with the highly efficient, but low-budget Rays. The Rays have motivation to sell: they could use the payroll flexibility, they won't afford Crawford as a free agent, and they have a few in-house replacements ready, namely Matt Joyce and Desmond Jennings. Crawford would fill a number of needs for the Mets. Not only would be an offensive upgrade over Pagan or Francoeur, he'd also add necessary range to the Mets outfield with Beltran's status still up in the air. He figures to be somewhere between 4-5 WAR for the price of 1-2 WAR.

Prince Fielder is a player in an extremely similar situation, despite being as different a ballplayer as possible from Crawford. He too is owed $10MM in 2010, with a very good in-house replacement (Matt Gamel) pounding on the door. While not the face of small market success like the Rays, the Brewers would probably prefer to keep the payroll in the $80MM range and know they won't be able to afford Fielder soon. Despite playing a different position with opposite skillset, Fielder would be a similar upgrade in talent to Crawford (4-5 WAR), and arguably more valuable, as the Mets could the convert Murphy to a premium position or a super-sub.

Both of these players, and any player similar to them, would have a very high cost in minor league talent, while saving money in terms of short-term value. This route might be best as it accommodates the short-term budgetary concerns with a win-now emphasis. Also, assuming the Mets could expand payroll to sign the player to an extension after 2010, the trade could have additional long-term value in shoring up the lineup for several years. To check the numbers on your own scenario, use this guide of prospect value, fittingly based on a Victor Wang article on why the Twins made out alright in the Santana trade.

Talking specifically about each player, Crawford would probably command the lesser package, due to his older age (29 next year). Fielder, however, is hardly untouchable, and his value is tempered by long-term durability concerns. Neither would likely require Fernando Martinez or Mejia, but Josh Thole and Ike Davis would fill organizational needs of the Rays and Brewers respectively. Another factor to consider in these scenarios is the possibility of the acquired player blocking prospects, so ideally Prince Fielder would make Ike Davis and/or Nick Evans more expendable.

I want the Mets to pursue both of these player this offseason, as a trade makes a lot of sense for each team and it would guard from garbage manning the 1B and LF positions in the future.

2. Promote aggresively from within:

As a completely unrelated strategy, the Mets could allow the impressive upcoming draft class to compete for jobs in Spring Training with little opposition. Fernando Martinez, Ike Davis, and Josh Thole all conveniently fit immediate major-league needs. Each could also be easily platooned with the incumbent at each position:

RF: Jeff Francoeur career OPSvL: .802. Fernando Martinez (minor league) OPSvR: .815
1B: Ike Davis (minor league) OPSvR: 1.009, Nick Evans (minor league) OPSVL: .929
C: Omir Santos OPSvL (minor league): .623, Josh Thole OPSvR: .751

The Santos/Thole platoon seems pointless as both players have exhibited reverse-splits in their careers, and Thole is a better hitter from than Santos vs. either handed-pitcher. The Francoeur/Martinez has some potential but probably would not last, as the Mets are more interested in each players development as a full-time player.

The Davis/Evans platoon is the most intriguing, and realistic, as each player has demonstrated an extreme platoon split in the high-minors, while neither is ready for full-time duties. The disadvantage to this would be carrying a firstbaseman with a platoon split on the bench everyday and possible stagnation of Davis' development as a full-time player. Given how extreme Ike's split is, however, I wonder if he'll ever outgrow it. The obvious advantages to this platoon would be above-average offensive and defensive production from firstbase for less than $1MM. I'm not the first to suggest it, and it's kind of an inspired idea. I could see the platoon being worth anywhere 2-5 WAR, considering the variability of their offensive and defensive performance. That would be a significant upgrade over Irish Hammer and would allow him to become the Mets' Mark DeRosa, replacing whatever other dreck the Mets would overpay to backup Castillo.

In general, I would prefer all these player to start the year at AAA as a precautionary measure, but I'm considering supporting the idea of the Davans platoon, especially considering the poor 1B free agent class.

3. Offer Delgado Arbitration/Sign stopgaps:

Offering Delgado arbitration could be a good idea*. If he declines, the Mets net a supplementary pick. If he accepts, they get to at least try him out in the spring at marginal cost.

*If they pick up Delgado's option, I quit.

Resigning Delgado, or signing any stop-gap veteran, be it Magglio Ordonez or Russell Branyan, however, has it's own set of risks. If the player doesn't perform due to old age or whatever other factors, the 5-10MM tied to him is a sunk cost and the chance of competing is slim. Besides Matt Holiday or Jason Bay, very few hitters are likely to offer a significant return. I'd take Adam LaRoche or Nick Johnson for the right price, but just spending money on an average firstbaseman does not seem like the most creative way to use a tight budget. While a stop-gap would give the youngsters more time to develop at AAA, I'd prefer the Mets to focus free agent money on very capable high-reward backups this offseason.

4. Realign the outfield:

Beltran to left! It saves his knees and allows the Mets to bring in a defensive specialist CFer to help with the expanses of Citi Field. Nyjer Morgan and Coco Crisp would be on my shortlist. Considering their defensive skill, either could provide 3+ WAR production at a minimal cost. Suddenly outfield is a strength for the Mets, offensively and defensively.

This offseason, the creative solution looks like the best one. If I'm the Mets GM, I'm inquiring on Nyjer Morgan and Prince Fielder right away. Despite what Minaya says, creativity and precision are not exclusive. Perhaps John Ricco will show us that.

New York Mets Top 20 PRE-SEASON Prospects in Review

John Sickels — Fri, 14 Aug 2009 12:00:12 -0000

More photos » by Kathy Willens - AP

New York Mets' outfielder Fernando Martinez (AP Photo/Kathy Willens)

Browse more photos »

New York Mets Top 20 PRE-SEASON Prospects in Review

This list was originally published December 20, 2008. This is a REVIEW of the PRE-SEASON list for 2009, not a revision of that list. This is a REVIEW of the old list. The first grade listed is the OLD GRADE.

1) Wilmer Flores, SS-3B, Grade B+: .273/.313/.351 in the Sally League. Not much power, very few walks. But at least his strikeout rate is reasonable, and he's very young at 18.

2) Fernando Martinez, OF, Grade B+: Hit .290/.337/.540 in Triple-A, .176/.242/.275 in the majors before knee injury. It looks like his power is coming around, and he's still just 20. Main need is to stay healthy.

3) Jon Niese, LHP, Grade B: 3.82 ERA with 82/26 K/BB in 94 innings in Triple-A, holding his own in the majors. I think he is well-positioned for success in 2010.

4) Brad Holt, RHP, Grade B: 5.98 ERA with 41/20 K/BB in 53 innings in Double-A, 53 hits allowed. Need for better secondary pitches to go with the fastball is evident.

5) Reese Havens, SS, Grade B: Hitting .232/.350/.397 in the Florida State League. Showing pop with 10 homers, good plate discipline, batting average low but there is some luck involved there. Still intriguing if he can stay healthy.

6) Jefry Marte, 3B, Grade C+: Hitting .235/.279/.348 in the Sally League. Very young at 18, but strike zone judgment is quite poor.

7) Jenry Mejia, RHP, Grade C+: Excellent in the Florida State League, OK in Double-A, combined numbers 2.50 ERA, 68/25 K/BB in 72 innings, 2.15 GO/AO, just 19 years old. Emerging as a top pitching prospect. Out of action with a finger injury.

8) Bobby Parnell, RHP, Grade C+: 3.94 ERA with 39/25 K/BB in 48 innings, 55 hits for the Mets. A competent reliever, being considered for starting role in 2010.

9) Eddie Kunz, RHP, Grade C+: 4.50 ERA with 28/28K/BB in 48 innings in Triple-A, 40 hits. 3.11 GO/AO ratio is intriguing, but needs better command.

10) Nick Evans, 1B, Grade C+: Hitting .218/.293/.405 between Double-A and Triple-A, hit .250/.298/.409 in 15 major league games. Window of opportunity is closing.

11) Ike Davis, 1B, Grade C+: Hitting .292/.377/.503 between Florida State League and Eastern League with big power spike erasing questions raised last year. Stock way up.

12) Dillon Gee, RHP, Grade C+: 4.10 ERA with 42/16 K/BB in 48 innings in Triple-A before hurting his shoulder.

13) Scott Moviel, RHP, Grade C+: 5.35 ERA with 24/14 K/BB in 37 innings in the Florida State League, 41 hits. Mediocre performance, perhaps hampered by recovery from knee injury.

14) Scott Shaw, RHP, Grade C+: 3.59 ERA with 102/50 K/BB in 120 innings in the Florida State League. Pretty good numbers, will transition to Double-A next year.

15) Eric Beaulac, RHP, Grade C+: 2.61 ERA with 106/34 K/BB in 93 innings in the Sally League. Strong K/IP and K/BB ratios, all numbers are solid, need to see at higher levels.

16) Ruben Tejada, SS, Grade C+: Hitting .294/.358/.382 with 14 steals in Double-A. Makes contact, can swipe a base, not a lot of power but just 19 years old. Looks like an interesting prospect to me with rising stock.

17) Greg Veloz, 2B, Grade C+: Hit .232/.297/.303 in the Florida State League, 18 steals but production weak otherwise. Just traded to the Nationals.

18) Michael Antonini, LHP, Grade C: 5.34 ERA with 67/25 K/BB in 84 innings, 98 hits in Double-A. Still throwing strikes, but has had problems adjusting to this level, as with many finesse guys.

19) Dylan Owen, RHP, Grade C: 5.36 ERA with 61/45 K/BB in 101 innings, 122 hits in Double-A. Just not dominant enough, like Antonini his finesse game hasn't translated well to this level.

20) Kyle Allen, RHP, Grade C: 3.99 ERA with 82/40 K/BB in 97 innings in the Sally League, 90 hits allowed. 2.17 GO/AO. Looks like an interesting sleeper prospect with good forward potential if he can sharpen command.

Josh Thole was rated as a Grade C in the 20-25 range pre-season, as I was concerned his lack of distance power and his defense. He still doesn't hit any homers, but his stock is higher and his contact ability is impressive enough for him to be in the top ten now. Ike Davis's power surge will vault him higher as well. Niese and Martinez should contribute next year, Mejia looks quite impressive, and Tejada is a sleeper. Overall the Mets system isn't bad at all, though I still think they push some of the Latin kids too quickly.

2009 Trade Deadline Preview: New York Mets

Brendan Scolari — Tue, 28 Jul 2009 04:35:50 -0000

More photos » by Jeffrey Boan - AP

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Buyers or sellers?

The Mets are five games under .500 with a 46-51 record. They are 10 games behind the Phillies in the NL East and 6.5 games behind the Rockies in the Wildcard race. The team really isn't in a position to contend this year but it sounds like the front office might try to make a push for the playoffs by adding players anyways. This week should be key in determining which direction the Mets will head this season.

Short-term need

The Mets have a few great players but most of the rest of the team has been mediocre at best and there are a lot of spots that could use an upgrade. Neither Omir Santos nor Brian Schneider is the answer at catcher. Carlos Delgado has begun swinging off a tee but nothing is imminent and in the meantime the club doesn't have a solid option at first base. Second baseman Luis Castillo has provided decent production but nothing special.

Carlos Beltran is still amazing when healthy but the rest of the outfield leaves much to be desired. Gary Sheffield can hit but can't field, Jeff Francoeur can field but can't hit, and Daniel Murphy can't do either. The Mets just don't have starting-caliber corner outfielders other than Beltran, unfortunately similar to their infield outside of Jose Reyes and David Wright.

The pitching is in similar condition. Johan Santana is still very good and Mike Pelfrey has been solid but after that there are question marks all over the place. Livan Hernandez has been predictably mediocre, John Maine has only made 11 starts, and Oliver Perez has been an absolute bust so far. The bullpen features Francisco Rodriguez who has a sparkling ERA but his peripherals have been declining for years and it isn't certain whether he will remain an elite closer. J.J. Putz is hurt and was ineffective when healthy and Billy Wagner is still rehabbing from arm surgery that has kept him out the whole year. If those two could get healthy and find their old form the bullpen would be a huge strength but that is unlikely.

Long-term need

For the long term the Mets will have to look to fill most of the same needs they have in the short term. Fernando Martinez should eventually be the full-time right fielder and Beltran will stay in center but neither Jeff Francoeur nor Daniel Murphy has shown much of a reason to be given the other outfield spot.

David Wright and Jose Reyes will man the left side of the infield for the forseeable future but there is no one to play the right side. Carlos Delgado and Luis Castillo are getting old and Nick Evans is unexciting. The same thing goes for the catcher position, where the Mets don't have anyone they can trust for the long term.

The pitching rotation should be the same next year save for Jon Niese stepping in for Livan Hernandez but that may not be a good thing. Johan Santana has lost enough velocity that he isn't quite the pitcher he used to be, Mike Pelfrey hasn't lived up to huge expectations, John Maine has only thrown 150 innings or more once in his career, and Oliver Perez has been worth a grand total of 2.2 wins above replacement since his awesome 2004 campaign. Despite making fixing the bullpen a priority in the offseason it still isn't very good so the Mets will need to look for some power arms that won't be as expensive in terms of prospects or dollars as K-Rod and J.J. Putz were.

The Mets have exciting prospects from Latin America that should eventually be able to fill some of these holes but they aren't going to be ready for a while so the Mets will just have to be patient.

Big leaguers on the market?

If the front office decides that this is not the Mets year, some role players like Gary Sheffield and Pedro Feliciano could be on the market. The Mets could also trade Brian Schneider if some team becomes desperate for a catcher, but otherwise there shouldn't be too much movement. All the big names on the team figure to stay no matter what happens. If the Mets are buyers they could trade someone like Bobby Parnell or Jon Niese depending on what they are looking for but don't expect them to make a big move.

Minor league strength

The Mets don't have a lot of players ready to play in the majors this year but there is some good talent just a year or two away. The Mets have spent lots of money in Latin America and have gotten good returns, but they haven't been the best at finding talent in the draft.

Fernando Martinez is only 20 years old but already has 100 PA in the big leagues. The outfielder could find himself in New York to stay by next year. Shortstop Wilmer Flores is currently struggling in Single-A but has huge upside and isn't even old enough to vote yet. Third baseman Jefry Marte is another young player who is currently struggling but has lots of room for growth. Only 18, he has the power and athleticism to eventually become a fixture at the hot corner. Right-handed pitcher Jenrry Mejia is only 19 but is already in Double-A. He currently has a 3.74 ERA with 24 strikeouts and only 9 walks there. Brad Holt is a college draftee from the 2008 draft with a good fastball but weak secondary pitches. He was thriving in High-A and has good peripherals at Double-A but has allowed too many homeruns (7 in 34.2 innings).

Take on short-term money to win?

With their financial strength the Mets should be able to add a contract at the deadline if they find a suitable trade partner. The real question is whether the Mets want to go for broke and try to win this year even though they've struggled so far.

For more coverage of the Mets, check out Amazin' Avenue.

MLB Trade Rumors: The New York Mets Should Deal Prospects for Roy Halladay

faketeams — Tue, 21 Jul 2009 15:58:14 -0000

More photos » by Morry Gash - AP

5 months ago: New York Mets' Fernando Martinez can't come up with the catch on a double hit by Milwaukee Brewers' Corey Hart during the fourth inning of a baseball game Tuesday, June 30, 2009, in Milwaukee. (AP Photo/Morry Gash)

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Yesterday, the trade rumor that the New York Mets turned down an offer of OF Fernando Martinez, SS Ruben Tejada, lefty starter Jonathan Niese and major league rookie reliever Bobby Parnell for Toronto Blue Jays' ace Roy Halladay was tweet mongered by SI.com's Jon Heyman:

#mets rejected request of package of f-mart, niese, parnell and ruben tejada for halladay. #jays

And quickly tweet squashed by ESPN.com's Keith Law:

keithlawMets-Jays trade report (Jays offered Doc for Martinez, Tejada, Niese, Parnell) is bogus. Shot down by multiple sources.

When I saw it, I thought it looked good for the Mets given the struggles of Martinez as a pro, and, more importantly, the utter success of a similar deal the Mets made 18 months ago - Johan Santana from the Minnesota Twins for Carlos Gomez, Phil Humber, Kevin Mulvey and Deolis Guerra. None of the four players the Mets dealt for Santana have emerged as legitimate difference makers on the major league level or retained any future value as elite prospects to be used in other trades.

While my snap judgment may be wrong, I wanted to go back and review how the package of Mets' prospects dealt for Santana compared to those rumored to have been asked for by the Blue Jays. To do so, I checked the 2008 prospects guides of Baseball America and John Sickels with ranks and grades against those of of the 2009 guides.

Initially, I was going to include just Mr. Sickels because his grading system is not depedent on the relative value of an organization's prospect depth as ranking the Top 30 prospects within an organization is. However, the Baseball America team also ranks the 30 major league organizations against each other. In 2008 and 2009, the New York Mets were ranked 17th overall by BA.

With that concern allayed, here are the grades and ranks for the Carlos Gomez-led package that landed Johan Santana and the Fernando Martinez-led package that could land Roy Halladay. Based on this comparison, the Mets' decision should be easier to make.

2008 Prospect	Baseball America Rank	John Sickels Grade	2009 Prospect	Baseball America Rank	John Sickels Grade
OF Carlos Gomez	3	B	OF Fernando Martinez	1	B+
RSP Phil Humber	7	B-	LSP Jonathan Niese	3	B
RSP Kevin Mulvey	4	B	RRP Bobby Parnell	5	C+
RSP Deolis Guerra	2	B+	SS Ruben Tejada	16	C+

Mets Reject Deal For Halladay?

Matt Buggenhagen — Tue, 21 Jul 2009 14:45:03 -0000

More photos » by Morry Gash - AP

Was Roy Halladay close to being a Met?

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John Heyman of SI.com reported last night that the NY Mets have turned down an offer for Blue Jays Pitcher Roy Halladay.

Heyman, reports that Toronto requested outfielder Fernando Martinez, pitcher Bobby Parnell, pitcher Jonathan Niese and shortstop Ruben Tejada.

Apparently the Mets responded with a clear-cut no. It is believed that that Mets don't want to mortgage the future, and being nine games out of first that certainly makes sense.

Heyman also noted that it's likely that Halladay would have turned down a deal to the Mets anyway. He has made it pretty clear that his goal is to compete for a championship, and as of now the Mets aren't exactly the place to do it.

Now at first glance this story is a bit strange, mostly due to the fact that we haven't heard anything about Halladay to the Mets since he hit the block, but generally speaking it always happens like this. We talk and talk about a group of teams and then at the last minute some other random team swoops in and steals the show. Not sure that'll be the case here, but we'll have to see how it plays out.

However, in this case for the essence of full disclosure, we have to let you know that various media outlets have denied this report.

ESPN baseball reporter Keith Law said on his Twitter page the report was "totally bogus. Shot down by multiple sources."

So take it for what it's worth.

Poll

So we have conflicting reports on this Halladay/Met deal. So how about a little fun with some sports writers. Who do you believe in this story?

Sports Illustrated John Heyman

53 votes

ESPN Keith Law

131 votes

184 votes | Poll has closed

Fourth Place Applesauce - Francoeur returns as a Met, Stewart & Dykstra, F!, Angler, and El Duque

Joe Budd — Fri, 17 Jul 2009 14:06:46 -0000

Hopefully the applesauce itself isn't fourth place, just the team that it mainly covers. I'm so glad the Nationals are in the division, otherwise we could easily be looking at a last place Met team. Remember when they were in first place for a few days? Yeah, that was pretty nice.

Meet the Mets

Second verse looks to be the same as the first. Francoeur went hitless in his return to Turner Field. Ryan Church pinch ran and scored a run.

Rob Neyer declares that the Mets need a miracle to remain competitive.

Jon Stewart loves his Nails posters and Jim Cramer.

The Red Sox are ready to dump Julio Lugo, a sub-par defensive, adequate offensive shortstop. Do the Mets take the bait?

Nytimes.com compiles the best entries to Banner Day.

Why is Wilmer Flores still playing shortstop if everyone agrees that's not where he's going to end up?

As usual, the Mets' initial release regarding Fernando Martinez's injury was incomplete. He is having surgery. In better news, however, Jose Reyes is taking BP.

Around the NL East

Jamie Moyer, Ryan Madson, and JC Romero combined for a one-hit shutout of the Marlins. Phillies Nation dubs Moyer the "Angler", which just happens to be Dick Cheney's Secret Service code name.

Ryan Howard is the fastest big leaguer to 200 home runs.

Rodrigo Lopez is hoping to join Pedro Martinez in the Phillie rotation.

More fodder for coyote522000, Joe Posnanski talks about Raul Ibanez's history of being underappreciated.

The Nationals began the Jim Riggleman era acting like it was still the Manny Act era, losing to the Cubs 6-2.

Around MLB

The Rangers don't think El Duque's a big leaguer and will keep him in the minors, activating a clause in his contract allowing Hernandez to opt out and become a free agent.

The Cubs have signed recently released Toronto closer B.J. Ryan.

Jake Peavy has his protective boot removed, feels good. GM Kevin Towers says he's 50-50 on a return this season.

Catcher	Francisco Pena
First Base	Carlos Delgado
Second Base	Anderson Hernandez
Third Base	David Wright
Shortstop	Jose Reyes
Left Field	Lastings Milledge
Center Field	Carlos Beltran
Right Field	Fernando Martinez
No. 1 Starter	Mike Pelfrey
No. 2 Starter	Philip Humber
No. 3 Starter	John Maine
No. 4 Starter	Deolis Guerra
No. 5 Starter	Kevin Mulvey
Closer	Billy Wagner

Catcher	Francisco Pena
First Base	Fernando Martinez
Second Base	Greg Veloz
Third Base	David Wright
Shortstop	Jose Reyes
Left Field	Lastings Milledge
Center Field	Carlos Gomez
Right Field	Carlos Beltran
No. 1 Starter	John Maine
No. 2 Starter	Oliver Perez
No. 3 Starter	Mike Pelfrey
No. 4 Starter	Deolis Guerra
No. 5 Starter	Kevin Mulvey
Closer	Eddie Kunz