SB Nation - Josh Fogg

Tuesday Rockpile: Has Dan O'Dowd forged MLB's best small market model?

Poseidon's Fist — Tue, 20 Oct 2009 13:25:26 -0000

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We are told Hawpe isn't going anywhere. Should we be surprised? "Dealin" Dan O'Dowd doesn't like dealin' his homegrown talent very much

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Locking down leading men

Yesterday, Patrick Saunders suggested the Rockies would ink GM Dan O'Dowd and manager Jim Tracy to multi-year deals this week. This morning, the Denver Post strengthened their wording on the issue a bit. Now, a "major league source close to the situation" said the Rockies will sign both leading men to long-term deals, per Saunders and Troy Renck. Okay so that's not a shocker. They do mention the entirety of the MLB coaching staff will return in their current roles, again not surprising after the best regular season in franchise history.

But oh yeah - Tracy Ringolsby already reported that Sunday night.

Dan O'Clown or Bozo Beane?

There's room to argue the sense in giving an MLB contract, but there can be no legitimate beef with Dan O'Dowd. At the time of the Holliday trade in November, some exhibited worry that O'Dowd was playing with fire (Beane) and would likely get burned (Encarnacion/Ortiz/Belitz). It looks like Beane ought to be worried about O'Dowd now.

To further illustrate this point, I'll point you to Fangraphs, where RJ Anderson writes of the Problem with Oakland. Quite frankly, the Athletics just haven't drafted well, and their top prospects haven't panned out since Moneyball. Anderson identified the Rays and Rockies as two teams taking the torch in the small-market-internal-development game, so he compared the three clubs' top 10 prospects (from Baseball America) from 2004-07:

"The Rockies have an extraordinarily high retention rate* of 72.5% while the Rays/A's are equal with 42.5%."

*Retention rate is defined as percentage of prospects still within the organization at the start of 2009.

Moreover, all ten of the Rockies' top ten prospects from 2007 were within the organization this past March, while Oakland and Tampa only had five. That could be part of why the Rockies have two playoff appearances since 2007 to Tampa and Oakland's combined one...

Now time for commentary: Jason Hirsh and Jeff Baker were traded for scraps this season and no one is calling Dan O'Dowd late at night in hopes a brandy-filled evening will allow him to loosen his grip on Greg Reynolds or Chaz Roe. Those four represent an issue with representing small market success by retention rate. Retaining dud or uninspiring prospects isn't really worth rewarding. The Rays lost their top prospect from 2005-2007, but flipping him for Matt Garza and Jason Bartlett was unquestionably the right move. Then again, after a decade drafting in the top five, they had the best prospects at their disposal for a long time, and the Rockies were drafting higher than Oakland in the time frame.

So what does this all tell us? The Rockies indeed develop players well, though mostly, it tells us Dan O'Dowd likes holding onto his prospects. That's all. The only top prospects from those four years that were traded prior to 2009 were Matt Holliday and Ryan Shealy (unanimously good trades). It tells us the Rockies seem to hold more firm to the developmental segment of the organization than their peers, which is partly why we fans latch onto our players so much. It also tells me that Dan O'Dowd would really have to break the mold to bring in a Brian Roberts.

Last cold links

Rox look to build on strong second half | ColoradoRockies.com: News
Thomas Harding breaks down the roster position-by-position. Included is the contract issues to keep an eye on. It's a good reference point if you haven't been reading the Row every day.

Mopping Up in 2009 | FanGraphs Baseball
Josh Fogg was mop up man in 2009 - his "MOP score" placed him second in MLB behind Luis Perdomo, who allowed Clint Barmes' inside-the-park home run last month.

Groundballs and the Bullpen: Do we need them?

RockiesMagicNumber — Fri, 02 Oct 2009 19:00:29 -0000

In the Rockpile today, Poseidon's Fist linked an article by Dave Cameron of Fangraphs discussing the Rockies' postseason rotation. He breaks it down to Ubaldo-Cook-DLR-Hammel, leaving Marquis off of the rotation. But it isn't just "lol marquis is teh awfuls," he raises a really good point:

Marquis would give the bullpen something it doesn't have right now - a guy to come in and get a ground ball in order to induce a DP or a play at the plate.

He raises a good point. The bullpen we have going into the postseason is very strikeout-heavy, pretty much bereft of groundballers. But is that such a bad thing?

Name	GB/FB	GB%	FB%	K/9	BB/9	K/BB	HR/9	AVG	WHIP
Aaron Cook	2.30	56.7%	24.7%	4.44	2.68	1.66	1.08	.282	1.41
Jason Marquis	2.00	55.6%	27.8%	4.75	3.31	1.44	0.64	.260	1.36
Ubaldo Jimenez	1.85	52.3%	28.2%	7.98	3.44	2.32	0.55	.232	1.24
Juan Rincon	1.41	47.7%	33.8%	8.77	7.01	1.25	0.70	.199	1.48
Jason Hammel	1.51	46.3%	30.8%	6.75	2.16	3.12	0.88	.290	1.39
Jorge de la Rosa	1.32	44.7%	34.0%	9.35	4.10	2.28	0.99	.251	1.4
Joe Beimel	0.83	40.4%	48.9%	6.60	2.40	2.75	1.20	.287	1.4
Matt Belisle	1.03	40.4%	39.4%	6.23	1.48	4.20	1.78	.284	1.29
Randy Flores	1.08	40.0%	37.1%	10.03	1.54	6.50	1.54	.299	1.37
Jose Contreras	1.25	39.5%	31.6%	9.00	4.50	2.00	1.29	.288	1.64
Huston Street	0.92	39.1%	42.4%	10.29	1.94	5.31	1.04	.202	0.93
Matt Daley	0.59	32.8%	55.5%	9.77	2.84	3.44	0.89	.223	1.13
Rafael Betancourt	0.60	29.5%	49.2%	10.13	1.88	5.40	0.38	.201	0.92
Franklin Morales	0.54	27.1%	50.5%	9.30	4.76	1.95	0.91	.233	1.39
Joel Peralta	0.50	24.7%	49.3%	8.03	4.38	1.83	1.09	.280	1.58

It's interesting to note that the strikeouts and groundballs seem to be inversely correlated, but that's a different study entirely.

Contrast this bullpen with the guys in 2007, just based on GB%:

Name	GB/FB	GB%	FB%	K/9	BB/9	K/BB	HR/9	AVG	WHIP
LaTroy Hawkins	3.03	63.3%	20.9%	4.72	2.6	1.81	0.98	0.25	1.23
Aaron Cook	2.46	57.9%	23.6%	3.31	2.39	1.39	0.81	0.275	1.34
Manny Corpas	2.03	57.4%	28.3%	6.69	2.31	2.9	0.69	0.223	1.06
Franklin Morales	2.07	54.9%	26.5%	5.95	3.2	1.86	0.46	0.235	1.22
Jeremy Affeldt	1.63	53.0%	32.5%	7.02	5.03	1.39	0.46	0.22	1.36
Matt Herges	1.22	46.5%	38.0%	5.55	2.77	2	0.74	0.199	1.01
Ubaldo Jimenez	1.26	46.4%	36.7%	7.46	4.06	1.84	1.1	0.232	1.3
Jeff Francis	1.19	44.4%	37.2%	6.9	2.63	2.62	1.04	0.278	1.38
Ryan Speier	1.38	41.5%	30.2%	6.5	4	1.63	0.5	0.283	1.56
Mark Redman	0.96	41.3%	42.9%	6.41	2.75	2.33	0.92	0.275	1.37
Josh Fogg	1.00	40.0%	40.0%	5.11	3.21	1.59	1.25	0.293	1.53
Brian Fuentes	0.83	35.9%	43.1%	8.22	3.38	2.43	0.88	0.21	1.13

Click past the jump and we'll break these numbers down.

In 2009, our 3 most extreme groundballers are all starting pitchers. Which makes sense, more or less, it helps mitigate damage via the double play and it keeps pitch counts down by getting more balls in play early in the count.

In 2007, however, 3.5 of our 5 most extreme groundballers were in the bullpen, and only Aaron Cook was in the rotation. Morales' role in the postseason was somewhat mixed, so that's why he gets the .5 for pen and .5 for rotation.

So in a casual sense, yes, we'd like a groundballer in the bullpen. But it seems, for the rationale listed above, that the groundballers are better suited to the rotation, as they are more prone to giving up hits (at least in terms of Marquis and Cook), and typically with bullpen duty, you want to get the outs as lock-downingly as possible, as to mitigate potential inherited damage.

So let's get a quick look at how 2007 and 2009 stack up in summation.

2007	GB%	K/9	tRA*
Rotation	45.71%	5.61	4.96
Bullpen	50.01%	6.46	4.44

2009	GB%	K/9	tRA*
Rotation	51.24%	6.69	4.33
Bullpen	38.48%	8.02	4.06

You could probably just look at that little chart and say "well, the Rockies just are a better pitching team this year" and I wouldn't argue with you at all. But it does seem that in sacrificing GB% for K/9, we made our pen better, and by further emphasizing GB% in the rotation, it made it better there as well.

The two pitchers I'd like to single out kind of embody the balance between the two measures presented: Ubaldo Jimenez and Manny Corpas.

I don't think I need to say much about Jimenez. 7.98 K/9 and 52.3% GB and he throws 700mph and he runs on clean burning biodiesel.

Corpas, however (and I'll keep this somewhat brief, I want to touch on his season more after we're all wrapped up with 2009), strikes out a decent amount, has excellent control of the strike zone (as in he never walks anyone), and still throws his slider very effectively. He also has a career GB% of 51.4%.

His sinker/2seamer/whatever we're calling it lost something this year, and there's a distinct chance we could chalk some of that up to a damaged elbow causing him to overthrow or something (this really isn't my area of expertise). He got hit a lot harder than we'd like to see, but I really think he'll rebound in 2010. He still gets a good number of ground balls, still doesn't give up many fly balls, and actually posted a lower FIP in 2009 than '08 or '07.

Frankly, and I know he was kind of awful this year, but I do think the pen missed having Corpas just for the different toolset he brought along. I mean, clearly we didn't miss him TOOOOOOOO much, but we had to rely on guys like Flores to come strike one LHB out (and he did do that pretty well: 11K to 1BB v LHB) when we had a jam to get out of. Season-long, yeah, Corpas was trouble, but situationally, he might still be a good tool to have around. But again, next season.

As for the original issue, having Marquis in the pen WOULD present us with a groundballing option, but I'm not 100% convinced I want to bring him into tight situations, especially with how wild his last start was in general. If you want a situational groundballer, you need a guy who can come in and paint corners with either a nasty changeup or a strong sinker, locating low and getting the big double play outs. I don't see Marquis being able to do that.

Mopup guy? Sure. 3 inning relief? Sure.

Situational groundballer? ehhhhhhh I wish we had Corpas still.

Coming in with Runners On – Not our Forte.

RockiesMagicNumber — Wed, 30 Sep 2009 18:12:30 -0000

More photos » by David Zalubowski - AP

Frankie, maybe they're just not using you right.

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This snippet here addresses one of my main gripes about the bullpen and how it's being handled. Our manager seems content to leave our pitchers in past when pitch counts suggest it's time for the yank, and let them get into trouble before bringing in his setup staff. One of the recipients of these particular hard knocks has been our right-handed setup man Rafael Betancourt.

On paper, Betancourt's been a stud made of awesomeness. As a Rockie, he's posted a 2.05 ERA (2.14 FIP, 2.15 tRA) and struck out 23 (2.89 K/BB) over 22.0 IP (29 G), and adding 0.8 WAR to the team. He's been more or less "nails", striking out 9.40 batters per 9, his highest rate since 2005 (9.71).

However, he seems to have been struggling lately, not being nearly as crisp as we're accustomed to. However, as I've screamed in game threads, it seems he's being brought in an awful lot to face hitters who've been dumped on him from the pitcher before letting runners on and then getting the hook. Logically, you're going to perform better with a clean slate to start with. What I am having trouble understanding is why we need to push a starter already at 110 pitches to start the 8^th inning when we have a nails setup man and a lights out closer ready to roll. We're paying them, how about we use them?

Anyhow. I ran a quick study using Baseball-Reference.com (btw, check out Ubaldo's page) to see what Rockies Relievers do when the situations are tough, and when they're easy. I used a cumulative WPA to gauge the situations and see how "well" the guys perform when they have inherited runners and when the slate is clean for them. I use WPA so that we can get a look on their effect on the game, as ERA or whatever will attribute runs to other pitchers and such if there are inherited runners allowed, and that really doesn't tell us what we want to know. WPA will just answer the question: "did the pitcher improve the Rockies' chances of winning?"

Don't remember WPA? Refresh yourself, and then come join us after the jump.

So what we've done is taken the game logs from Baseball-Reference, and broken them down into games where our bullpen has had to deal with inherited runners, and games where they haven't. The results aren't terribly shocking, but interesting nonetheless. (note: these numbers don't include the past game or two.)

Name	# of G w/o IR	WPA	# of G w/ IR	IRS%	WPA
Betancourt	17	0.65	11	47%	-0.53
Daley	36	0.75	15	31%	-0.59
Morales	22	0.72	13	33%	0.11
Beimel	12	-0.3	10	19%	0.32
Street	54	2.48	6	50%	0.35
Fogg	11	-0.2	11	42%	-0.07
Belisle	13	0.05	7	50%	0.05
Rincon	14	-0.2	10	0%	0.54

(IR = Inherited Runners, IRS = Inherited Runners Scored, WPA = Win Probability Added)

In short, I can see the following here: Joe Beimel handles traffic well, but for some reason, struggles when given a clean slate. Betancourt and Daley shouldn't be brought in with runners on.

And the scariest point of all: Juan Rincon doesn't allow inherited runners to cross home plate. Period.

So here's the skinny. Rincon is scarily good at cleaning up somebody else's messes. But with no mess to clean, he makes his own. Beimel does the same thing.

Some combination of Morales/Daley, Betancourt, and Street should be our closing staff. They should also be brought in for a clean inning, none of this "oh hey there are 2 guys on and nobody out" nonsense.

Josh Fogg isn't a good pitcher. But that's not really news.

Matt Belisle is about as Meh as it comes. You can see by that 0.05 WPA on both sides of the chart that he really doesn't add much or take much from the team's chances of winning. It makes me laugh because it just speaks to his skillset - pretty boring - but it makes the most sense because for the most part, he's only tossed into very low leverage outings, mopup duty, where him allowing a run or two over however much work isn't really going to change the Rockies' chances of winning all that much. I'd wager if he was put into higher leverage situations regularly, you'd see quite a bit more on the WPA- side.

This is the kind of stuff that gets to me, the proper usage of our pitchers. Some can handle the heat, some just want to come in and get their own zeros and not worry about anyone else. They should be used as such.

Minnesota Twins 2010 Roster & Payroll (Part II)

Jesse — Thu, 24 Sep 2009 22:48:55 -0000

Thanks for some fantastic coversation on Tuesday! Milt on Tilt, Eric In Madison, Seth Speaks, clutterheart, Fetch9, ajmargarine and everyone else who contributed made for a great discussion, helped clarify some things while running some good back-and-forth over dollars and stats.

We'll start where we left off, which was discussing how internal options would help flesh out the depth chart. All players who aren't either under contract or arbitration-eligible (serfs) will be in italics. Serfs, simply because of how much they're being paid, their options and their experience, are the easiest players to theoretically replace with free agents. Some players will be listed on the depth chart at more than one position, but we should see pretty quickly which positions have talent and depth, and which positions have flexibility but not necessarily reliability.

Catcher: Joe Mauer, Jose Morales
First Base: Justin Morneau, Michael Cuddyer
Second Base: Nick Punto, Brendan Harris, Alexi Casilla, Matt Tolbert, Steven Tolleson
Third Base: Brian Buscher, Brendan Harris, Matt Tolbert, Nick Punto, Daniel Valencia, Luke Hughes
Shortstop: Nick Punto, Brendan Harris, Matt Tolbert, Trevor Plouffe
Left Field: Denard Span, Delmon Young, Jason Kubel
Center Field: Carlos Gomez, Denard Span
Right Field: Michael Cuddyer, Denard Span, Jason Kubel
Designated Hitter: Jason Kubel

Starting Pitcher: Scott Baker, Kevin Slowey, Nick Blackburn, Brian Duensing, Francisco Liriano, Glen Perkins, Anthony Swarzak, Boof Bonser
Relief Pitcher: Joe Nathan, Matt Guerrier, Jose Mijares, Jon Rauch, Jesse Crain, Pat Neshek, Brian Duensing, Glen Perkins, Boof Bonser, Francisco Liriano

You can make an argument for another player or two being on this list somewhere, but realistically if the Twins went into next season without picking up a single free agent, this would be the essential core of players. From this group you'd need to choose 25 players.

Before we get our estimated payroll figure for those 25, we have to update our estimates for what our nine arbitration-eligible players could be worth next year. 117 comments from Tuesday's post, and using a healthy cross-section of responses as guidelines we'll alter our estimates to the following.

Player	Original Estimate	Updated Estimate
Boof Bonser	$500,000	$900,000
Carlos Gomez	$600,000	$1,000,000
Brendan Harris	$600,000	$1,100,000
Francisco Liriano	$550,000	$1,500,000
Pat Neshek	$500,000	$700,000
Glen Perkins	$550,000	$900,000
Delmon Young	$1,750,000	$1,750,000
Jesse Crain	$2,300,000	$2,300,000
Matt Guerrier	$2,100,000	$2,600,000
Totals	$9,450,000	$12,750,000

We've added $3.3 million dollars in arbitration raises. Add this new total to the committed $62,267,000 and your contractual and arbitration players are making an estimated $75,017,000. Add another eight players at the major league minimum plus a little change, and right now I have to believe that without adding a single free agent the Twins will go to Opening Day with a minimum of $78.5 million dollars. We'll call it an even $80, just in case I've been too conservative in any estimates.

That would constitute a $15 million dollar bump from Opening Day 2009, and it's far and away a franchise record. But what will the front office's limit be for spending this off-season? Will they be allowed to add another $5 million? $10 million? Some on this site have speculated the organization could go so far as to raise payroll to $100,000, even before the team has played a game in its new stadium. I tend to this that's pretty high. I also think this team will be hesitant to reach to $90 million, if only because it's so far removed from any ceiling this club has ever seen.

For now, today, until we hear something different we'll just throw out the number of $87,000,000. Some will think that's too high and a lot will think it's too low, but it's a fair number.

One look at the above depth chart and it's pretty easy to point a finger, run it across a few names and say Okay, So This Is Where We Should Start. Those places, in no particular order, should be starting pitching, shortstop, third base and second base. Check here for a current list of potential free agents, but here's a list of players who could potentially cost $7 million or less per season.

Starting Pitchers: Erik Bedard, Daniel Cabrera, Doug Davis, Josh Fogg, Jason Marquis, Brett Myers, Vincente Padilla, Carl Pavano, Brad Penny, Mark Prior, Jarrod Washburn, Randy Wolf

I purposely left a few names off this list, but this is still fairly exhaustive. Which one of these guys, if any, would constitute enough value for the Twins to shell out millions of dollars with the hope that their additional wins would be worth the value over in-house, cheaper, more familiar options? If you only have $7 million to spend, are you willing to blow it all on one veteran starter? Or maybe the gambling type, and would bring in Prior on a one-year, incentive laden deal? Hell, he'll only be 28.

Third Base: Adrian Beltre, Joe Crede, Bobby Crosby, Mark DeRosa, Nomar Garciaparra, Troy Glaus, Miguel Tejada, Juan Uribe

See anyone you like here? Crede likes it in Minneapolis, would he take another incentive-laden deal based on plate appearances or games played? Or does your gamber's mentality take you to Glaus?

Second Base: Ronnie Belliard, Jamey Carroll, Mark DeRosa, Jerry Hairston Jr, Adam Kennedy, Placido Polanco

Carroll is having a good season for a bad ballclub. Belliard is awful. Do you like DeRosa's versatility enough to pay your entire $7 million stipend? Because he'll come at a cost. Polanco's got a big head, so that's fun.

Shortstop: Orlando Cabrera, Alex Cora, Bobby Crosby, Adam Everett, Khalil Greene, Marco Scutaro, Miguel Tejada, Omar Vizquel

The reality is that no matter where you look in these four positional categories, a vast majority of what you see are either retreads trying to make a comeback, older guys hanging on, younger(ish) players who really aren't very good or other warts-ridden profiles. Keep in mind that this is a list of guys who could make $7 million or less per season, but even those who could make more than that aren't all that great. The few diamonds in the rough will be snatched up, quickly, and will likely be overpaid due to simple economics. So long, Jamey Carroll.

It's not a good free agent class, but in some ways this organization doesn't have a choice going into next season. Not signing a free agent will seem, to the masses (ignorant or not), like just another "stingy" move by a "stingy" front office, although there's been nothing stingy about this organization for years. It's a new stadium being filled with a handful of star players, and the public will expect the Twins to make a splash. Right or wrong.

How would you handle it? It's a complicated decision, and for a team that has more than its share of needs there won't be endless millions to throw around. Unless, of course, you want to make trades or cuts...but that's another story for another day.

I'll leave you to ponder for the time being, on the final off-day for the Twins as we head into the season's final trio of series. Let's enjoy some fall baseball tonight, cheer on the Indians, and I'll see you tomorrow.

WAR Lords of the Diamond (Starting Pitchers)

Jabberwocky — Thu, 24 Sep 2009 16:15:09 -0000

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Where does Aaron Cook rank among Colorado's starting pitchers?

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Previous Sessions in the WAR Lords Series:

C (with methodology) I 1B I 2B I 3B I SS I LF I CF I RF I RP

For the next step in my ongoing quest to quantify the greatest Rockies ever by position, I'm revealing the best performers at starting pitcher (through the 2008 season).

Obviously this is not a comprehensive list of all starting pitchers, but all the pitchers who have made a large contribution to the Rockies as starters were weighed, measured, and (often) found wanting. All in all, 54 players were ranked.

Once again, I'm using Sean Smith's historical WAR database (not Fangraphs) to compile these numbers (with a big assist to the fabulous Baseball Reference; here is the glossary of the terms Smith uses and an explanation of how pitching WAR is calculated. Note: the calculation that Smith uses is different than the one used in my article, so the numbers at Fangraphs will be slightly different than the ones I present in these articles.

As I explained last week, starting pitchers are MUCH more valuable than relief pitchers when one is measuring WAR, by and large, due to the fact that WAR is a counting stat. Starting pitchers throw more innings and therefore have a greater influence on the game than do relievers, which stands to reason. This is also the reason why a pitcher like Franklin Morales, who could develop into a dominant closer, would be better off just remaining a starter.

Remember, relief pitchers are often failed starting pitchers who are given an easier task that their skillset will allow them to handle. Nearly every starting pitcher in baseball could be a useful relief pitcher. Very few relief pitchers could be useful starting pitchers. Replacement-level starters can be useful relievers; Juan Rincon is neither.

In any case, what both Smith and the fine folks at Fangraphs have shown is that star starting pitchers are just as valuable if not more so than star position players (and their contracts often bear this point out). Even though a dominant starting pitcher will only play once every five games, they have such a huge influence on whether their team wins the game that it mitigates the difference in playing time between the position player and, say, Troy Tulowitzki.

For instance, this season Ubaldo Jimenez (Colorado's top pitcher) has been worth 5.5 WAR while Tulowitzki (the top position player) has accumulated 4.7 WAR. On a macro scale, the Rockies' pitching staff has actually contributed more WAR to the team (23.3, 2nd in MLB) than have the position players (16.5, 17th in MLB).

But I digress.

Like the denizens of the bullpen, a club's starting rotation is often in a constant state of flux due to injuries and inconsistent performance. The fact that the Rockies have only had five pitchers start more than two games this year is quite frankly amazing--the MLB average for this is closer to eight starters. I would say, though, that starting pitching performance is by and large more predictive overall than relief pitching performance due to the larger sample sizes involved in any one year's stats. A reliever can be unduly harmed or helped by luck when used less often--a trend that can see an unpleasant (or pleasant) change the subsequent year.

In order to qualify for consideration for this list the pitchers had to be one of the top five or six starters in innings pitched in a given year or throw over 50 innings for the team in a mostly starting role. It's a relatively deep group, with 14 starting pitchers having delivered at least one league average season (2 WAR) as a starter for the Rockies.

Starting Pitchers

Note: some of these pitchers were both starters and relievers for the Rockies. I have placed these players in this category subjectively on the basis of where I believe they provided the greatest impact to the Rockies. In case of an average rank tie, career WAR is the tiebreaker. I'm ranking eight players to reflect the fact that the modern starting rotation generally uses eight pitchers in any given year.

Keep in mind when reading this list that WAR is a counting stat and therefore longevity counts for quite a bit, especially in this category. Also, Smith's numbers seem to be park-adjusted, therefore pre-humidor pitchers are given a nice park-factor boost to their less-than inspiring numbers (small consolation for having to pitch in an offensive haven.

1. Pedro Astacio

Career WAR: 9.9 (2nd)
Top Three Seasons: 9.3, 1999-2001 (1st)
Top Season: 5.3, 1999 (1st)
Average Rank: 1.33

Originally signed out of the Dominican Republic as an 18 year old by the Dodgers, Pedro Astacio came over to the Rockies as a 27 year old before the waiver trade deadline in 1997 in exchange for Eric Young. Needless to say, trading EY was not originally a popular move with fans, but Astacio soon won over Colorado partisans with his sublime pitching even at Coors Field.

Astacio's third season with the Rockies, 1999, was the greatest pitching season in franchise history (though it will soon likely be surpassed by Jimenez this year) with 5.3 WAR. The 29 year-old righty threw 232 innings, managing a 17-11 record and 210 strikeouts (a club record to this day) despite a 5.04 ERA. Considering that Coors Field in 1999 had a Park Factor of 127 (this year = 107), it was pretty tough to succeed using conventional pitching stats. Astacio's 4.56 FIP and 8.15 K/9 (2.91 K/BB) hold up pretty well in such a poor pitching environment.

In any case, Astacio was traded by Colorado to Houston for homegrown pitcher Scott Elarton at the 2001 trading deadline as he approached free agency. Oddly enough, Astacio's performance never was even replacement level for the rest of his career even when pitching in better environs.

TOGB celebrated Astacio in an edition of Rockies Retro.

2a. Aaron Cook

Career WAR: 10.3 (1st)
Top Three Seasons: 7.3, 2006-2008 (2nd)
Top Season: 3.4, 2008 (6th)
Average Rank: 3

You might not have realized it, but Aaron Cook has been pitching for the Rockies since 2002 (and he's signed through 2011 with a mutual option for 2012). His longevity and consistency (he's been over 1 WAR his last five seasons) are what puts the Rockies' 2nd round pick in 1997 near the top of this leaderboard and to the summit of the Rockies' career WAR leaderboard.

Cook's best year was his All-Star season last year, when in the awful beginning of the year he was the only thing keeping the season from becoming a complete disaster. His 16-9 record and 3.96 ERA in 211.1 IP got him on the All-Star team and his 3.76 FIP garnered him 3.4 WAR. His 4.37 career ERA is tops in Rockies history.

Going forward, Cook is a solid middle rotation starter that is locked into the Rockies for a couple of more years. He is already the longest-tenured Rockies starter, and could be one of the few players in today's game to pitch a long career with one club.

2b. Jason Jennings

Career WAR: 9.1 (3rd)
Top Three Seasons: 6.6, 2004-2006 (3rd)
Top Season: 4.2, 2006 (3rd)
Average Rank: 3

Talk about selling an asset high. Jason Jennings, the jewel of the Rockies' player development system, Rookie of the Year in 2002, coming off of his best season, was traded to the Houston Astros after the 2006 season (and before his third year of arbitration) for Willy Taveras, Taylor Buchholz, and Jason Hirsh. Dan O'Dowd was lambasted for this trade by most, yet in hindsight this move looks like an absolute steal.

Why? Because Jennings fell off a cliff once leaving the Rockies, sustaining arm injuries and pitching poorly enough that he's now the Rangers' mop-up man. Despite the hard times that have befallen JJ, let us remember his glory.

The 16th overall pick of the 1999 draft out of Baylor, JJ rocketed through the Rockies' system and made his big league debut in 2001, going 4-1 and having a rather memorable debut, pitching a five pitch shutout and hitting a home run. Jennings only got better in 2002, going 16-8 and winning the ROY. However, it was JJ's 2006 that cemented his status as a front line pitcher (or so thought poor Ed Wade).

In 2006 Jennings compiled a 9-13 record but had a 3.78 ERA (4.09 FIP) with 206 Ks (1.67 K/BB) in 212 IP, good enough for 4.2 WAR. And then O'Dowd sold high. What a move that was. His WAR since 2006: -1.1, -0.8. While I appreciate what JJ did for the Rockies, I'm glad O'Dowd let go when he did.

4. Kevin Ritz

Career WAR: 6.6 (6th)
Top Three Seasons: 6.5, 1995-1997 (4th)
Top Season: 3.9, 1995 (5th)
Average Rank: 5

Kevin Ritz, a 4th round pick of Detroit in 1985, was picked as the 46th pick of the 1992 expansion draft by the Rockies. Ritz was a rotation regular by 1994 and had a nice two season stretch in 1995 and 1996. Ritz went 11-11 with a 4.21 ERA (4.15 FIP) with 120 Ks (1.85 K/BB) in 173.1 IP for the Wild Card-winning Rockies in 1995 (3.9 WAR). He followed it up with a 2 WAR 1996, going 17-11.

Ritz's career ended when he was released by the Rockies during the 1998 season after he was unable to overcome arm injuries.

TOGB wrote a nice profile on Ritz in Rockies Retro.

5. Armando Reynoso

Career WAR: 7.6 (4th)
Top Three Seasons: 5.0, 1993-1995 (6th)
Top Season: 3.1, 1993 (8th)
Average Rank: 6

Armando Reynoso, originally purchased by the Braves from his Mexican professional team, was selected by the Rockies with the 58th pick in the expansion draft. Reynoso quickly became Colorado's best pitcher, posting a 3.1 WAR in the team's inaugural season. However, his career was quickly detoured by chronic arm injuries, otherwise he'd be higher on this list. The righty, who possessed an awesome pick-off move, did manage to put up 1.1 and 2.6 WAR seasons in 1995 (half year) and 1996.

The Rockies traded the plucky finesse pitcher to the Mets after the 1996 season for Jerry DiPoto as he became more expensive given his injury risk. Reynoso won a World Series ring with the Diamondbacks despite performing poorly in 2001, his last real MLB season.

TOGB wrote a profile on Reynoso in Rockies Retro.

6. Marvin Freeman

Career WAR: 4.6 (8th)
Top Three Seasons: 4.6, 1994-1996 (T-8th)
Top Season: 4.0, 1994 (4th)
Average Rank: 6.67

Ladies and Gentleman, the single season ERA record holder for the Colorado Rockies! A 31 year-old Marvin Freeman was picked up off the scrap heap by the Rockies after the 1993 season, and though he only had one good season with the team, what a blaze of glory it was!

The imposing (6'7") righty was, quite frankly, amazing in 1994 for the Rockies. In only 112 innings (18 starts), Freeman went 10-2 with 67 Ks (2.91 K/BB) and a 2.80 ERA (3.84 FIP), worth 4.0 WAR!

Of course, in 1995 and 1996 everyone was reminded that Freeman wasn't actually this good (0.9 and -0.3 WAR) and he went away quietly--he was released at the waiver deadline in 1996.

7. John Thomson

Career WAR: 7.2 (5th)
Top Three Seasons: 4.8, 1997-1999 (7th)
Top Season: 2.7, 1997 (10th)
Average Rank: 7.33

Drafted by the Rockies in the 7th round in 1993, Thomson exceeded the production of 1992 2nd round draft pick Mark Thompson, who I often confuse him for. Thomson reached the big leagues in 1997 as a 23 year old and had immediate success, posting 2.7 WAR (7-9, 4.71 ERA) and following that up with another 2.7 WAR (8-11, 4.81) season in 1998.

Unfortunately, the injury bug bit Thomson hard after 1998, and he managed only half seasons in 1999 and 2001 with no season at all in 2000. Finally healthy in 2002, Thomson was traded at the July deadline with Mark Little to the Mets for a package that included Jay Payton. After the trade Thomson had a few injury-free years and performed well for the Rangers and the Braves, then was ultimately undone by more injuries.

8. Jeff Francis

Career WAR: 6.2 (7th)
Top Three Seasons: 5.7, 2006-2008 (5th)
Top Season: 2.5, 2006 (13th)
Average Rank: 8.33

The 9th overall pick in the 2002 draft out of Canada, Jeff Francis moved rapidly through the Rockies' system and was with the big club by 2004 as a 23 year old. Francis finished sixth in the ROY voting in 2005, his first full season, then enjoyed two very nice years in 2006 and 2007.

The soft-tossing lefty equaled Ritz's and Astacio's franchise wins mark with his 17-9 record in 2007 (he had 2.2 WAR) and finished 9th in the Cy Young Award voting. However, he suffered a torn labrum after a tough 2008 and has been rehabbing the injury since then.

The Physicist has one year left on his contract ($5.75 million) with a $7 million club option for 2010. It will be interesting to see if Francis can ever return to his early form and make it worthwhile for the Rockies to exercise that option. I've taken a pretty pessimistic view on this injury from the start, so my money is that Francis will never contribute significantly to the team again. I would love to be proved wrong though.

Other great single seasons include Joe Kennedy's 2004 (4.7 WAR) and Roger Bailey's 1997 (3.2).

Career Underachievers: Mike Hampton (-1, though he was worth 2 WAR batting), Denny Neagle (1.1), Scott Elarton (-2.9), and Livan Hernandez (-1.2).

Others of note: Jimenez (3.4 and on his way to a place high on this list very soon), Darryl Kile (4.1), Jamey Wright (4.6), Shawn Chacon (2.2, but 3.9 as a starter), Josh Fogg (-0.6) Greg Reynolds (-1.5).

Next week I'll reveal the unholy amalgamation that is the Colorado Rockies All-WAR team.

Castoffs Paying Dividends In NL West

Eric Stephen — Tue, 08 Sep 2009 03:09:19 -0000

by David Zalubowski - AP

Has Jason Giambi been a good acquisition so far for the Rockies? Yes, yes he has been.

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With all the hype surrounding the non-waiver trading deadline of July 31, there have been some moves made after that date that have been useful, at least in the early returns, for the top three teams in the National League West. Here is a look at some of the key acquisitions by the Dodgers, Rockies, and Giants in August, as they prepare for the stretch drive.

Dodgers

Vicente Padilla was so disliked in the Rangers' clubhouse that some Texas teammates actually congratulated GM Jon Daniels when it was learned Padilla was released. The Dodgers, searching for a fifth starter all season, signed Padilla to a minor league contract on August 19. All Padilla has done since joining Los Angeles is pitch three good games, with the Dodgers winning all three.

Split	GS	W-L	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	ERA	WHIP	FIP
Padilla with Tex	18	8-6	108.0	120	61	59	42	59	4.92	1.500	4.93
Padilla with LA	3	2-0	16.1	16	5	5	4	12	2.76	1.224	2.41

Ronnie Belliard struggled earlier this season, but he started to get hot with semi-regular playing time with the Nationals. Belliard was hitting .361/.400/.590 with the Nationals in August, before he was traded to the Dodgers on August 30. I jokingly invoked the name of Marlon Anderson, another ex-National who caught fire for the Dodgers in September 2006, but so far the comparison is apt, as Belliard has produced. With the opportunity to give Orlando Hudson more rest, and the hamstring injury to Casey Blake, Belliard has been more than just a bench player, starting seven of his eight games as a Dodger.

Split	G	PA	HR	RBI	BA/OBP/SLG	OPS
Belliard with Was	86	204	5	22	.246/.296/.374	.670
Belliard with LA	8	28	2	6	.370/.393/.667	1.067

I figured the Dodgers' roster moves were complete with the Belliard deal, but last Monday night proved me wrong. The Dodgers added Jon Garland and Jim Thome, adding some depth to the starting rotation and power to the bench, respectively. Garland, a workhorse who has pitched six innings or longer in 17 of his last 18 starts, won his Dodger debut last Thursday.

Split	GS	W-L	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	ERA	WHIP	FIP
Garland with Ari	27	8-11	167.2	188	90	80	52	83	4.29	1.431	4.57
Garland with LA	1	1-0	7.0	5	2	2	1	6	2.57	0.857	3.71

Thome, limited to pinch hitting duty with his bad back, got a hit in his first Dodger at-bat. Assuming his foot injury isn't too serious, Thome will provide the Dodgers with a legitimate power threat off the bench over the next month or two and, knock on wood, a ready-made designated hitter in the World Series.

Split	G	PA	HR	RBI	BA/OBP/SLG	OPS	wOBA
Thome with CWS	107	417	23	74	.249/.372/.493	.864	.373
Thome with LA	3	3	0	0	.333/.333/.333	.667	.297

Rockies

Jason Giambi was signed by Colorado to a minor league contract on August 24, after being released by Oakland 17 days earlier. Giambi was activated once the rosters expanded, and quickly made himself at home with the Rockies:

September 1: Giambi pinch hit with the bases loaded in the 8th inning with a 7-3 lead over the Mets, and Giambi induced a walk in his first Rockies' plate appearance
September 2: Tied 2-2 with the Mets in the 8th inning, Giambi again came up with the bases loaded, this time delivering a go ahead, two-run single, in a game the Rockies would win 5-2
September 4: Tied 4-4 with Arizona in the 8th inning, Giambi again delivered a pinch single, driving in the go ahead and eventual winning run in a 5-4 Rockies win

Giambi became the third Rockies player in history to have a run batted in during each of his first three games with the club, joining Jeff Salazar (2006) and Steve Decker (1996).

Split	G	PA	HR	RBI	BA/OBP/SLG	OPS	wOBA
Giambi with Oak	83	328	11	40	.193/.332/.364	.697	.315
Giambi with Col	4	8	0	4	.400/.625/.400	1.025	.487

The Rockies also wanted to acquire Garland, but instead opted to trade for Jose Contreras of the White Sox. Despite his 5-13 record and 5.42 ERA with Chicago, Contreras wasn't having that bad of a season. His FIP was 4.14, and as Rockies Magic Number noted on Purple Row, Contreras figured to help the club as a fill in for the injured Aaron Cook. Remember, the Rockies had to start Josh Fogg against the Dodgers, so any kind of a warm body would have sufficed, but Contreras is much more than that.

Contreras did nothing to disprove his worth with his first outing in Colorado, allowing only one run over 6.2 innings in a win over the Diamondbacks on Saturday.

Split	GS	W-L	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	ERA	WHIP	FIP
Contreras with CWS	21	5-13	114.2	121	83	69	45	89	5.42	1.448	4.14
Contreras with Col	1	1-0	6.2	8	1	1	1	5	1.35	0.350	4.04

Giants

The Giants got Brad Penny off the scrap heap when he was dispatched by the Red Sox after posting a 5.61 ERA (and 4.59 FIP) over his 24 starts in Boston. All Penny did his first game back in the National League was own the World Champion Phillies, throwing eight shutout innings in Philadelphia last Wednesday. Penny came back today with another win, this time against the Padres.

Split	GS	W-L	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	ERA	WHIP	FIP
Penny with Bos	24	7-8	131.2	160	89	82	42	89	5.61	1.534	4.59
Penny with SF	2	2-0	15.0	8	2	2	2	8	1.20	0.667	3.33

Penny is scheduled to face the Dodgers, his old team from 2004 through last year, in each of the next two weekends.

Sure its early, but sometimes the big moves aren't the only ones that deserve all the headlines. In the case of the NL West, some minor moves have paid big dividends so far.

Saturday Rockpile: CarGo update, Who starts Tuesday?, Marquis enjoying success, more

theoldgrizzlybear — Sat, 29 Aug 2009 15:02:55 -0000

More photos » by Ben Margot - AP

Can't beat the Giants this weekend while you're shorthanded? Screw it, you've got the rest of the season to make up for it.

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Tracy wants to take advantage of Young's speed - The Denver Post
In addition to Patrick Saunders' profiling Eric Young Jr.'s blazing speed, the article perhaps more interestingly mentions that the Rox are likely considering Brandon Hynick or Russ Ortiz to pitch on Tuesday, along with kicking around the idea of skipping the fifth starter altogether and just running Jorge De La Rosa out there. It will be interesting to see what the club decides to do. Also, Saunders says Carlos Gonzalez's chances of playing this weekend appear slim. Meanwhile, Tracy Ringolsby says it definitely WON'T be Josh Fogg making the start on Tuesday, and that CarGo could be available to play defense tonight and possibly be in the starting lineup tomorrow.

Rockies should worry about Giants, not Dodgers - MLB News - FOX Sports on MSN

In the Cowboy's national piece for FoxSports.com, he talks about how the Rox were setup by the Dodgers, who were struggling heading into the series at Coors Field but promptly took two of three from the previously-surging Rockies. Once they get through this tough part of the schedule, the Rox will only play teams with winning records in 9 of their final 31 games, in addition to playing 19 of those 31 contests in Denver. So, things still set up very well for them. As Jim Tracy says in a quote at the end of the article, the Rockies have "got to keep trudging forward."

Jason Marquis having a remarkable season for Colorado Rockies - ESPN
The national attention continues for the Rockies, despite the small losing streak the team is currently enduring. ESPN.com's Tim Kurkjian's piece details Jason Marquis' success at Coors Field, and throughout the season altogether.

Helton flashes the leather - The Denver Post
What a play by the Toddfather on Randy Winn's hard-hit ball down the first base line last night. Ironically, the piece also mentions the Rockies' blunder on Juan Uribe's 8-foot pop fly.

Armstrong: Tracy, Rockies deserve credit - The Denver Post
A quote from former Rockie Jeremy Affeldt:

"You've got to give them credit. With Francis, Fuentes and Buchholz gone, you would have thought they would be in a pretty big hole. I don't know a lot of other teams that could have survived that."

Michael Young, Brian Roberts best players to not reach postseason - Tom Verducci - SI.com
In this article about the stuff listed in the headline, SI.com's Tom Verducci also discusses top left-handed relievers in the NL West. Franklin Morales and Joe Beimel are no Hong-Chih Kuo and George Sherrill, but they definitely hold their own. Check out the piece for statistical comparisons, etc.

Lefties Tilt Balance In Dodgers Favor

Eric Stephen — Thu, 27 Aug 2009 04:05:45 -0000

More photos » by Jack Dempsey - AP

Road Loney!

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Tonight the Dodger left handers led the way, leading the club to a 6-1 victory over Josh Fogg and the Rockies Wednesday night at Coors Field. Andre Ethier slammed two home runs, and James Loney clubbed a towering three-run shot to provide the offense, and rotation stalwart Randy Wolf did the rest, pitching into the eighth inning for his ninth win of the season.

Wolf has pitched at least seven innings in each of his last five starts, and has a streak of 12 straight starts of pitching six or more innings. Wolf is 6-3 with a 2.79 ERA over those last 12 starts, and has won his last four starts. His first out of tonight's game gave him 170 innings on the season, triggering the first $500,000 incentive bonus in his contract. He is currently at 177 innings, and his next two $500,000 bonuses are for 180 and 185 innings pitched.

Ethier tallied a single to go with his two dingers, and is simply on fire this month, hitting .383/.458/.713 with 17 extra-base hits in 24 games in August. Loney's home run was his eighth on the season, and his first since July 10. Loney has all of his home runs on the road this year, and the Dodger record for most home runs in a season, all on the road, is 11, by Willie Davis in 1969.

At one point, right after Loney's home run, the scoreboard featured the awesome, if not aesthetically unpleasant, R-H-E line of 6-3-0, as the Dodgers' first three hits left the playing field.

George Sherrill, who was unavailable last night due to soreness (hat tip to Jon Weisman of Dodger Thoughts), finished the eighth inning, and Jonathan Broxton pitched the ninth to finish the five-run Dodger victory.

For a day, at least, the wolves are held at bay. Tomorrow is a getaway day game, featuring Vicente Padilla's Dodger debut against Jorge de la Rosa for the Rockies.

WP - Randy Wolf (9-6): 7.1 IP, 5 hits, 1 run, 2 walks, 5 strikeouts

LP - Josh Fogg (0-2): 3 IP, 4 hits, 6 runs, 4 walks, 3 strikeouts

Box Score

Rockies 1, Dodgers 6: Rockies stop streakin' as Randy Wolf quiets the bats

Russ — Thu, 27 Aug 2009 03:46:01 -0000

More photos » by Jack Dempsey - AP

2 months ago: Colorado Rockies starting pitcher Josh Fogg talks with Chris Iannetta (20) after giving up a two run home run to Los Angeles Dodgers' Andre Ethier during the fourth inning of a baseball game in Denver, Wednesday, Aug. 26, 2009. (AP Photo/Jack Dempsey)

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Let's face it. We knew those good vibrations the Rockies had recently were going to end, and that they did tonight. Josh Fogg didn't live up to his 2007 namesake; rather, he pitched more like the guy Purple Row groaned and moaned about in 2006 (all right, that was mostly me since we only had ~20 members then). He allowed six runs on three homers, in addition to walking four.

But, uh, Juan Rincon was awesome tonight! Yeah, I didn't expect to type that tonight.

There was a whole lot of nothing for the Rockies' offense tonight outside of Ryan Spilborghs' third-inning home run (8). Eric Young Jr. had two hits, but he was caught stealing again on a basepath blunder.

Oh well, they'll get the Dodgers tomorrow afternoon.

72 - 55

Games Back: 3

Streak: Lost 1

Games Left: 35

via www.fangraphs.com

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Now, For The Weather Report...

Eric Stephen — Wed, 26 Aug 2009 18:00:12 -0000

More photos » by David Zalubowski - AP

Josh Fogg gets his first start of the season tonight for the Rockies.

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Today, the Dodgers face Josh Fogg of the Rockies, who is making his first start of the season after 20 games pitched in relief. In his career against the Dodgers, he is 3-5 with a 4.34 ERA over 66.1 innings. Past Dodger batters have hit .288/.353/.500 against Fogg.

How have the Dodgers fared against other meterological names of baseball past?

Tim Raines hit .327/.413/.417 in 118 career games against Los Angeles, but the Dodgers were able to catch him stealing more often -- 14 times -- than any other team. Raines' stolen base percentage against the Dodgers was 73.1%, a far cry from his 85.4% against everybody else.
Sadly, Tim Raines, Jr. never faced the Dodgers in his brief career.
David Weathers has pitched in 77 games against the Dodgers, all but four in relief, with a 4-5 record and two saves, and a 3.24 ERA.
Ken Cloude faced the Dodgers just one time, pitching the eighth inning of a 5-0 Dodger win over the Mariners in 1999, allowing two hits in his one inning of work.
Sonny Jackson hit .237/.277/.267 against the Dodgers from 1963-1974.
Hideo "The Tornado" Nomo is mostly known for playing with the Dodgers, although he did start two games against them -- once with the Mets, and once with the Brewers. Nomo was 0-1 with a 2.25 ERA against the Dodgers.

There's a 30% chance of thunderstorms in Denver at game time tonight.

Now back to your regular scheduled programming.