SB Nation - Kevin Mulvey

Arizona Makes Awful Move in Granderson Blockbuster

Satchel Price — Tue, 08 Dec 2009 23:45:57 -0000

More photos » by Ross D. Franklin - AP

Within the massive seven player deal that sent Curtis Granderson to the New York Yankees, the Diamondbacks dealt starter Max Scherzer and top relief prospect Daniel Schlereth to the Tigers in order to acquire right-handers Edwin Jackson and Ian Kennedy.

While you would presume that the Diamondbacks were simply making a win-now move, it's pretty questionable whether the team actually make any legitimate improvements for next season. While Jackson should provide Arizona with a solid mid-rotation starter and Kennedy gives them another back of the rotation option along with Kevin Mulvey, Billy Buckner and Bryan Augenstein, giving up their two best young arms capable of contributing in 2010 in order to add them.

While Jackson is under control for two years and Kennedy is under control for six years, Scherzer has five years of team control left and Schlereth still has all six as well. What makes the deal so puzzling is that one could legitimately argue that Scherzer will be the better pitcher not only long term, but in 2010 as well. Jackson posted a decent 4.39 xFIP and 4.28 FIP in 2009, Scherzer bested those numbers with respective marks of 3.87 and 3.88, while posting significantly better contact rates.

I'm still trying to understand how the Diamondbacks improved going forward thanks to this deal. The pitching staff is older with Jackson and Kennedy, it's likely not any better and could very well be worse if Scherzer takes the next step (which he's capable of), and it's not any cheaper, Jackson is by far the most expensive piece among the four pitchers.

Certainly, the Yankees made a brilliant move by landing a star center fielder without giving up any potential stars, all three prospects project more as solid everyday players than legitimate impact players, and the Tigers did manage to land some nice pieces in Scherzer, Schlereth, Austin Jackson and Phil Coke. But I'm still trying to figure out what Arizona got out of this deal.

Down on the Farm: Part 2 of Interview with Adam Foster from Project Prospect

raygu — Sat, 05 Dec 2009 14:00:16 -0000

Here is the part 2 of the two part interview with Adam Foster from Project Prospect. Foster and the guys over at Project Prospect recently posted their top 15 catching prospects, so head on over to Project Prospect and check out their top 15 rankings.

Fake Teams: Aside from the AFL, what prospects that you have seen this year made the biggest leap forward? Step back?

Adam Foster: James Darnell is a guy who I went well out of my way to see this year. His swing really impressed me at Minor League Spring Training. He's very athletic with a good chance of sticking at third base. And his power potential is outstanding.

Some of my colleagues who are really into college statistics pointed Darnell out as a guy who may have fallen further than he should have in the draft - he wasn't healthy his junior season. Then I bumped into Darnell's Cape Cod League coach in Phoenix one night and he said he wanted Darnell over Justin Smoak on his Cape team.

I'm not saying that Darnell is a lock to become a superstar. But he's one of the best prospects in baseball. And people who aren't giving him that kind of recognition probably haven't done their homework.

As far as guys who took a step back, unfortunately Tim Alderson was a different pitcher this year than last. He lost some movement on his fastball. And his pinpoint accuracy left him. There are guys who chose to give up some velocity to gain movement. Alderson may have gone the opposite direction in 2009, I'm not sure. But even though his curveball is already a plus pitch, he wasn't giving High-A or Double-A hitters much trouble last season. He definitely has elite control. I just don't think he's a big league pitcher without outstanding command.

More after the jump:

Fake Teams: I read in your Rising Stars game chat that you and your colleagues are not as high on the Phillies outfield prospect Domonic Brown. What are your reasons?

Adam Foster: Guys who are outstanding fast-twitch athletes can become overrated in a hurry. People like to assume that they're athletic enough to do things that other players can't. In Brown's case, there's some false information floating around that he's an elite defender. He has a very good arm and he's fast, but he doesn't get good reads or take good routes. Those skills can't really be learned. So it's highly unlikely that he'll be more than an average defensive right fielder.

Additionally, he's really not very coordinated - compared to his peers. My first reaction when I saw him bat was that he looked awkward. He gets in a crouch to try to shrink down his big strike zone (Brown is 6-foot-5). And while he has a lot of bat speed, is patient, and recognizes pitches well, he's not going to be an above-average contact hitter. There's not much he can do about that. He doesn't have very good bat control.

Keep in mind that Brown is an elite prospect. He's in the 99^th percentile for his class. I'm just dissecting the heck out of him here. If you compare him to the other guys who are at the head of the class, I don't think he stands out as one who's going to become a star. He's very good and a likely bet to become an average big leaguer. But there are a dozen or so hitters out there who I see as better prospects than him.

Fake Teams: What players who underwhelmed in 2009 do you expect to jump back into the limelight in 2010?

Adam Foster: Reese Havens is a good one to start with. He moved to second base in the Arizona Fall League and looked solid at the position. He's a polished, well-rounded hitter who can play up-the-middle defense. He was a first rounder. And had a successful junior season in college - I'd be more confident in him if he was better his sophomore year, though. His baseball resume puts him in elite company. I'll be surprised if he doesn't break out in 2010.

Don't sleep on Jon Niese and Kevin Mulvey. They are solid bets to turn into useful big league starters. You could also end up looking like a genius if you snatch up Kellen Kulbacki cheap now that a lot of people have forgotten about him. Nick Noonan was one of the youngest players in High-A and has a lot of potential. Ivan De Jesus may not be a fantasy stud, but if you play in a deep dynasty or sim league, don't forget about him - and I'm sure you haven't ;).

Fake Teams: What prospects do you feel who should be getting more press based on their talent/performance?

Adam Foster: Josh Bell is just starting to get the attention he deserves. I guess you lose some street cred when you get traded for a reliever. But the Dodgers are clearly working under the win-now model, so I wouldn't hold it against him. He can play third base and has a lot of power. If Pedro Alvarez and Brett Wallace can't stick at third - and they probably won't - then Bell starts looking like a pretty good pick for the best "true" third base prospect in the minors. I'll have to compare my video of him and Darnell this offseason, though.

Brandon Snyder is another guy who has the resume to turn into a solid big leaguer. But you don't hear much talk about him. I'm a big Drew Cumberland believer. Matt Sweeney is a breakout guy. Lorenzo Cain has fallen out of the spotlight but I still see a lot of potential in him. Che-Hsuan Lin gets lost in the Red Sox depth of athletic hitters. Jaff Decker gets overlooked largely due to some old scouting biases.

Fake Teams: Who are your top 5 hitting prospects going into 2010? Who are your top 5 pitching prospects going into 2010?

Adam Foster: At the end of the 2009 season, we ranked Jason Heyward, Carlos Santana, Jesus Montero, and Buster Posey as the game's top five hitting prospects with Dustin Ackley, Desmond Jennings, Fernando Martinez and Mike Stanton on the bubble. Those guys will account for the bulk of - if not all - the spots among our top five hitting prospects entering 2010.

We didn't get to see many of baseball's top pitching prospects at the AFL. And I still want to get better reads on some guys. But Stephen Strasburg and Brian Matusz are clearly at the head of this class. Daniel Hudson and Jeremy Hellickson were two of the most impressive pitchers I saw in 2009 - Hudson for his FB and CH movement; Hellickson for his command. Then it's hard not to like Neftali Feliz' stuff. The five guys I've mentioned were our top five pitching prospects when we put together our October top 25 pitching prospect list. Most of them should also be top five on our 2010 list.

I want to thank Adam for taking the time for this interview.

The 2009 Diamondbacks: what the heck happened?

Jim McLennan — Tue, 06 Oct 2009 02:00:17 -0000

Worst Case Scenario… Arizona battles with Colorado for third place.
-- Baseball Digest Daily Team Preview, March 15, 2009

The above is a measure of how badly things went for our team this year: the "worst case scenario" suggested, would be something for which we would now be more than happy to settle. It's comforting to realize that I am far from the only person to have seen their high expectation for the 2009 Arizona Diamondbacks mercilessly dashed. Virtually every pundit I could locate online predicted us to have a winning record - the respected Baseball Prospectus PECOTA projections had the team all the way up at 88 wins, and they weren't alone.

Other sites predicted 86 wins; 85 wins, 84 wins, 88 wins, 83 wins for Arizona, and even CHONE, the most pessimistic I could find at 79 wins, had us finishing only three games back of the Dodgers. From a more fan-based perspective, in our pre-season poll, of approaching three hundred participants, only 12% predicted the Diamondbacks would have less than eighty victories, never mind struggling to reach seventy. Not quite the same realm as the chairman of DEC saying "There is no reason anyone would want a computer in their home," but why were so many people - neutral observers, with no vested interests or rose-colored fandom glasses - so completely wrong? Why was there such a gulf between expectations and reality? After the jump, we'll break down some numbers - here are Josh Byrnes and AJ Hinch talking about the season that's just finished.

Audio courtesy of KTAR 620

Injuries
Let's not kid ourselves. The loss of Brandon Webb was a devastating blow to the Diamondbacks in 2009, as much because it was completely unexpected to us. After all, over the previous five season, he had never made less than 33 starts per year. To be reduced from that, at an ERA+ of 140 to a single, ineffective outing was clearly a huge factor in the team's underperformance. How much?

Let's look at Webb's record in 2005, 2006 and 2008, when the total number of runs scored by the team (696, 712 and 720) were close to this year, when it's exactly the same as 2008, at 720. In those three years, Webb's collective ERA was 3.31 - one tick above the number posted last season - and his average W/L record was 17-9, with the team going 19-14 in his starts This seems a reasonable estimate for what we "should" have got from Webb this year, assuming run support approximately matching those hundred starts, and an ERA consistent with last year.

Instead of him, there was the Quadruple-headed Beast of Webb-Replacement Suck: Bryan Augenstein, Yusmeiro Petit, Billy Buckner and Kevin Mulvey. While Buckner has, of late, looked a semi-credible back-end candidate for 2010, this has been the exception, rather than the rule. In their first 33 starts, that quartet had an ERA of 6.24, went 5-18 and the team posted a record of 9-24 - ten games worse than that we could realistically have expected from 33 Webb starts. Even using a more conservative estimate - Fangraph.com's Wins Above Replacement (WAR) - we find that Webb in 2008 was worth six wins to Arizona - the four-pack of replacements plus Webb in 2009 rated only 0.3 wins in 33 starts, 5.7 less. I'd split the difference between the two methods and say Webb's injury cost us eight wins

We should also consider the unfortunate loss of Conor Jackson to valley fever, which basically meant he had the entire season written off. No real way to measure his input except by using WAR. This tells us there's a difference of 4.5 wins between what we got from the SnakePit MVP in 2008 and his sub-replacement output for the team this season. So, between the loss of him and Webb, we're probably looking at a cost to the team around twelve games. That's a massive difference by itself, almost enough to have put the team into contention for the wild-card, and is not including anyone else - I believe Arizona's players missed a total of almost 800 player-games on the DL. But wait! There's more...

Trades
After it became apparent that this team was not going to be in the post-season hunt, several deals were made, sending useful pieces to other teams, generally in exchange for players who might help the team in 2010 or beyond. The players we lost would likely have helped the Diamondbacks to several more victories - albeit meaningless ones - had we retained their services for the rest of the season. From WAR, we can see what the ex-Diamondbacks did for their new teams - production which could have been in Arizona.

Of course, we need to balance against this, the production provided to Arizona this season, by what we received in return. The chart below shows the four main trades, with the WAR values given to their new teams after the trade, on both sides of the deal:

Left Arizona	WAR	To Arizona	WAR
Jon Garland	0.6	PTBNL	0.0
Felipe Lopez	2.6	Cole Gillespie Roque Mercedes	0.0
Tony Peña	0.5	Brandon Allen	-0.6
Jon Rauch	0.3	Kevin Mulvey	-0.1
TOTAL	4.0	TOTAL	-0.7

Ugh. I hope those trades work out better for us in the long-term than they did this season, because they provided absolutely nothing of value to the 2009 team. While it would be simple just to say that we would have approached five wins better, simply by hanging on to the players with whom we started the season, it probably isn't as simple as that, because of the positional changes. The replacement at second for Lopez was mostly Rusty Ryal, who was a credible +0.6 WAR in his time here. While still well short of F-Lo, who hit .320 for the Brewers over 66 games, it's enough to make me reduce the overall impact to four wins.

Almost as significant a weakening were the Peña and Rauch deals, not just for what they would have done in the 'pen but the negative impact of the players received in return. After the way Allen tore up AAA pitching, an OPS+ of 70 in more than thirty games was still disappointing. I think we'll be taking Reno numbers with a larger pinch of salt next season. Mulvey lacked control, issuing 14 free passes (a dozen walks and two hit batters) and five home-runs in only 23 innings. He'll need to do better than that, if he wants even to be our sixth starter next year - a spot at which, as noted above, Arizona blew chunks. We'll discuss the moves more in due course, I think; both Mulvey and Allen will only be 24 on Opening Day 2010, so that's in their favor.

"Bad luck"
Yeah, this may sound like a Cubs-esque cop-out, but there's some evidence to suggest the team was unlucky, and I don't just mean the lodging of fungal sports in the lungs of one of our best 2008 hitters. Baseball is a chaotic, in mathematical terms, game - in the sense that a tiny change in circumstances can have a massive effect on results. For example, a couple of millimeters difference on where the ball hits the bat, far beyond what any hitter can control consciously, may be the difference between a grand-slam and an inning-ending can of corn to the outfield. However, that requires a good deal more space, and this piece has already gone on long enough, so I'll carry any detailed analysis there forward for another day... But it's probably worth at least another three wins.

Conclusions
That brings us to a total of 19 wins lost to the Diamondbacks by factors more or less outside their control - the trades would likely not have happened had the team still been in contention, which in turn was the result of a combination of factors, including injuries and the whims of the baseball gods. It's enough to explain the entire gulf between performance and expectations, and then some.

This does not absolve the front-office from responsibility for their part in the disappointing season. Given the known issue with Webb's shoulder - which was apparently a big enough concern to stop the two sides from agreeing on a contract extension - it was particularly reckless to have no credible backup available in our pitching rotation. First-base continues to be a major black-hole of offensive production, and with the honorable exception of Dan Haren, the contract extensions awarded over the past few years have yet to bear fruit (and that's putting it mildly). Those outside the lines certainly have their share of blame.

However, even with all the self-inflicted wounds, the Diamondbacks as formulated on Opening Day 2009 would, if fully healthy and getting anything approaching normal luck, have been over .500, at the very least. Indeed, thanks to a number of everyday players surpassing expectations (Montero, Upton, Reynolds), 90 wins could conceivably have been achieved had the breaks gone minorly our way. Again, I'll analyze our actual performances more in the coming weeks, but you might find some surprises there too [here's a tidbit - the 2009 bullpen was, by at least one advanced measure, better than in 2008].

September: A Gurgling Vortex of Suckitude in Review

Jim McLennan — Fri, 02 Oct 2009 04:30:14 -0000

More photos » by Paul Connors - AP

When I search for Leo Rosales, AP gives me two photos - one of which is actually Clay Zavada. Poor Leo. So, here's the other one.

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An 8-18 record. Only 3.77 runs per game. A -41 run differential. Pretty much the worst month for the team since June 2006, when we went 8-20 and were -72 in runs - though even there, we scored four runs per game. The offense in particular was phoning in its performance, with a line of .247/.314/.393, an OPS of only .707. While a little better than April's .703, that was partly-based on a low BABIP figure of .265. In September, the figure was .300. League average for both was .298, so the team wasn't unlucky last month - they flat-out sucked.

This is not what you want at the end of the season. What you want are some nuggets of hope, onto which you can cling through the long, dark winter - a sense that better things are just around the corner for your team. September was not such a month. The only comfort to be drawn is that the Mets and Pirates both had a worse time of it, going 8-20. I don't know about you but, "we sucked fractionally less than Pittsburgh" is not the final thought I want to take away from the 2009 season. After the jump, we'll see if we can find any heroes, and also name some names...

Heroes

Few and far between this month: to get five, I had to lower the bar significantly compare to previous months. Therefore, you should think of the following, not perhaps as those who played particularly well, but more those who didn't blow quite as many chunks as their team-mates.

Billy Buckner: 30.1 IP, 31 H, 10 BB, 26 K, 13 ER, 3.86 ERA
The addition of a cut-fastball to Buckner's armory appeared to turn him from the sub-replacement pitcher we saw at the start of the year [an 8.63 ERA in his first 40.2 innings], to being perhaps the foremost candidate for the #5 starter's spot next season. Stilll a work in progress, he needs to keep the ball down if he's to be effective.

Miguel Montero: .310/.372/.452, 3 HR, 9 RBI
The last few games will decide whether Montero can hit .300 on the year - he currently sits at .299 - but he posted his third straight month above that line in September. Though his power was down, from 11 doubles to three, Montero took a season-high number of walks, leading to a year's best OBP of .372.

Leo Rosales: 11.2 IP, 12 H, 3 BB, 5 K, 4 ER, 3.09 ERA
Not a great month for the bullpen, who burbled their way to a collective 5.35 ERA in September. The only other reliever with five innings and an ERA under 4.80 was Gutierrez at 3.86, so Rosales deserves credit. He has got his ERA back to near-league average with a good couple of months, and seems we could do worse at the back of the 2010 bullpen.

Max Scherzer: 31 IP, 24 H, 12 BB, 24 K, 12 ER, 3.48 ERA
We were concerned about Max wearing down at the end of the season, but he proved to be our most effective starter in September, though you wouldn't know it from his 1-3 record. He did allow six home-runs over the month, but all of them were solo shots. For a 25-year old in his sophomore season, he's had a solid year.

Chris Young: .266/.343/.500, 6 HR, 10 RBI
Probably the brightest note on offense was the return to form of Young, who had the best OPS of anyone with 30 PAs. Even putting aside the power-surge, including three HR in one game, his .266 average has been bettered by Young only once since May 2007. If he can carry that into 2010, it'll be a significant help to the team.

Villains

A special, extended edition of this section, thanks to a pitching staff whose ERA was 15th in the league at 5.24, and hitters ranked 14th by runs scored. A special note on the offense. At .750 and .670, two of our starting pitchers, Billy Buckner and Dan Haren, each had better OPS numbers in September than all of the following batters.

Brandon Allen: .188/.282/.377, 3 HR, 9 RBI
First baseman of the future? Not on September's performance, which also included 25 strikeouts in 69 at-bats. Manager AJ Hinch thinks Allen panics with two strikes: "I think he gets in-between pitches. He worries about the breaking ball...and gets a little jumpy with the fastball... His strike-zone judgment is actually pretty good... I think that over time that will allow him to be a better two-strike hitter."

Doug Davis: 26.1 IP, 42 H, 14 BB, 16 K, 20 ER, 6.84 ERA
If Davis is pitching for a big free-agent contract, you wouldn't know it. That's his worst ERA for any month with more than one start in over eight years, since a 7.71 ERA in three April 2001 games. Opponents hit .375 off Davis in September. He wasn't helped by a .415 BABIP - but nor was he helped by a K:BB ratio perilously close to even.

Stephen Drew: .240/.294/.350, 1 HR, 6 RBI
I remember at the break, we were hoping for the same second-half surge we got from Drew in 2008. It hasn't happened, with a 50-point drop in his OPS since the break, though this month was better than May for Drew. Could the problem be his removal from the lead-off spot? There, he hits .305, eighty points higher than in the two-hole.

Kevin Mulvey: 23 IP, 23 H, 12 BB, 18 K, 18 ER, 7.04 ERA
Not looking like one of Byrnes' best trades. Jon Rauch has a 2.08 ERA for the Twins, and picked up as many victories in his first two games there, as during his entire time in Arizona. Mulvey, meanwhile has been hit hard - five home-runs in September, a Petit-esque rate. Those and the walks are what have hurt his overall numbers.

Yusmeiro Petit: 11.1 IP, 15 H, 5 BB. 10 K, 10 ER, 7.94 ERA
Speaking of Petit-esque... Here's the real deal, showing how it should be done, with three home-runs in this brief stint. Part of the problem is, seven of the last eight HR allowed have come with men on base; in his first 25 career homers, 20 were solo shots. Insane fly-ball rate + Chase Field = may end up not being present on the 2010 roster.

Mark Reynolds: .187/.286/.363, 4 HR, 11 RBI
Special K just doesn't like September. His career OPS for the month is .751 - the next-lowest is more than 60 points better. He probably wasn't helped by a BABIP of .250 - he has been anywhere from .319 to .396 the rest of the season, averaging .338. Srikeouts and walks remained remakably consistent, but it does seem he is flagging at the end of a long, largely memorable, season.

Ryan Roberts: .224/.298/.303, 1 HR, 5 RBI
RR's roller-coaster year continues: in the four months with 50+ PAs, his OPS has been .933, .396, 1.004 and .600 - no month within four hundred points of the next. Maybe we only need to play him in months that end in a Y? He had the lowest OPS of anyone with more than twenty PAs, and did little to solidify his claim on a starting-role next year.

Poll

Who was the Diamondbacks' Player of the Month for September?

Billy Buckner

14 votes

Miguel Montero

29 votes

Leo Rosales

1 votes

Max Scherzer

2 votes

Chris Young

26 votes

72 votes | Poll has closed

Diamondbacks 1, Giants 4: Penny For Your Naughts

Azreous — Thu, 01 Oct 2009 04:44:25 -0000

More photos » by Ben Margot - AP

San Francisco Giants 1B Travis Ishikawa is unsure if his run counts, since it's against the Diamondbacks. The home plate umpire nodded his head sadly, and the game continued on.

Browse more photos »

Record: 68-90. Pace. 69-93. Change on last season: -12.

For my final recap of the season, I had high hopes that the Diamondbacks would do something interesting that also qualified as "good." You know, scoring more than three runs, not having any baserunning gaffes, getting a dominating performance from the starting pitcher...that kind of stuff. Instead, I got another abysmal offensive performance, the pitcher caught in a rundown, and Kevin Mulvey on the mound. Thank you, baseball gods. Thanks a lot.

Meanwhile, a Diamondback from the days of yore (Brad Penny) licked his chops about the prospects of facing the mighty Arizona lineup, and the only positive that could be gleaned from this game was that its completion moved us one game closer to the end of the season. Good times.

Still, I hedged my bets that this game would be uninteresting and did something else on the side for the season finale. There's a trivia contest inside, although I'm unable to offer any prizes other than compliments about how smart you are. Maybe that'll take the edge off more than reading about another boring loss.

An actual recap, and details about the quiz, after the jump...

The Diamondbacks had opportunities in the early going, but wasted just about all of them. Stephen Drew singled on a deep grounder to start the game, but two outs quickly followed. Miguel Montero slapped a base hit opposite field to move Drew into scoring position, but Mark Reynolds struck out (take a drink!) and the inning was over.

The worst inning was probably the third. Mulvey actually helped his own cause with a base hit up the middle to lead things off. Drew followed with his second hit to put two on with nobody out, but things unraveled from there. Roberts grounded into a fielder's choice, but the Giants were unable to turn two on it. With runners on the corners and one out, Justin Upton struck out. Montero had a chance to deliver a timely hit, but after the first pitch, Mulvey was caught leaning too far off the bag at third, and was tagged out after a brief rundown. Nothing like pitchers killing offensive rallies to make you want to change the channel.

The exception was in the fourth, when Penny essentially ruined his own shutout. Reynolds hit a line drive to left for a base hit with one out, and Parra followed with a fielder's choice. With two outs, Eric Byrnes hit a comebacker that Penny threw away so badly, both runners were able to advance three bases -- Parra scored from first, and Byrnes ended up on third. Brandon Allen followed with a walk, but that brought up Kevin Mulvey, and unsurprisingly the inning ended shortly thereafter.

That was it for the Diamondbacks' offense. They went down in order four of the last five innings, the blip being a Byrnes single to lead off the seventh (which, of course, was entirely wasted). Penny faced just that one batter over the minimum on his way to a complete game. He needed just 109 pitches to go the distance, and ended with the following line: 9 IP, 6 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 5 K. There's a good chance that his fourth-inning error was the only thing between him and a shutout.

On the other side, Mulvey really didn't pitch that badly, but one disjointed inning ruined an otherwise decent line. After working around a leadoff single in the first, Mulvey gave up a three spot in the second, facing six batters in a row without a positive result (even the two outs were sacrifices). Two singles, a HBP, a two-run single, a sac bunt and a sac fly left Mulvey staring at a 3-0 deficit before he could finally get out of the inning. He also gave up a solo shot off the foul pole to Eli Whiteside in the fourth inning, but outside of the second frame, he gave up just two hits, a run and a walk in the other five. His final numbers aren't too bad -- 6 IP, 5 H, 4 ER, 1 BB, 4 K, 82 pitches -- but we're going to need something better than a 7.04 ERA from him if he's going to crack the rotation next season.

The bullpen gave us a couple innings of solid work in an otherwise meaningless cause. Boyer and Schlereth each pitched a scoreless frame; Boyer only surrendered a hit and worked through on an efficient 10 pitches, and Schlereth worked around a walk while striking out a pair. Moral victories don't mean much in September, but I guess it was nice to see.

Master of his Domain (I guess): Eric Byrnes, +11.1%
God-Emperor of Suck: Kevin Mulvey, -17.2%
Dishonorable Mention: Ryan Roberts, -15.1%; Justin Upton, -11.3%

Mulvey's hiccup inning pretty much reserved him a place as the GEoS. Roberts and Upton both put up 0-fers and were punished accordingly. Byrnes was one of only four players in the positive, although his involvement in that success is arguable, since Penny did most of the work.

For the Diamondbacks, Drew had a pair of hits and was the only Arizona player to reach twice. Montero's average dipped below .300 again, and Upton's bad day is bringing him perilously close as well (.304). The pitching has already been covered, so that's about all that's worth mentioning for the D-backs tonight. For the Giants, Pablo Sandoval had a pair of walks, but Whiteside did all the damage -- three hits in three at-bats, including the home run.

Quiet GameDay Thread tonight, which I'm sure Jim wishes he could trade for last night's chaos. Roll Call: Wailord, AJforAZ, katers, ol Pete, hotclaws, jazzbo13, kishi, pygalgia, piratedan7, Azreous, 4 Corners Fan, IHateSouthBend, venomfan, soco. Total Users: 14. Total Posts: 144.

The loss gives the Diamondbacks 90 on the season, and they've got just four games left to pick up a couple more victories and get to 70 in the win column. They'll conclude this series against the Giants tomorrow in a 12:45 start, with Dan Haren on the mound against Tim Lincecum -- but as documented before, the game doesn't have any local TV coverage, so good luck watching the two aces in action in their final starts.

Hey, enough downtrodden stuff. As an added bonus before the end of the "interesting" game recaps this season, I've put together a quiz to test your knowledge of the Arizona Diamondbacks this season. After all, you should be expected to get a test at the end of a term, right? Keep in mind, there's a reason you can't spell trivial without "trivia," as some of the questions will be more obscure than others. Sure, you could go to baseball-reference.com or Google or something and get 100 percent, but that's not really the point. If you're into this kind of stuff, hopefully you get a few minutes of enjoyment out of it. If not, you can pretend it never happened. Either way, here's the quiz. Good luck...

Dodgers Can Clinch Playoff Spot Today

Eric Stephen — Wed, 23 Sep 2009 14:00:27 -0000

More photos » by Chris Carlson - AP

Celebration one of five will come soon, perhaps as soon as today.

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The Dodgers today can become the second team in baseball, joining the Yankees, to clinch a playoff spot. However, they need a little help. The Rockies are the wild card leaders, but the Giants and Braves are tied for second. Here are their records:

Team	W-L	GB
Dodgers	91-60	---
Rockies	86-65	5
Giants	81-70	10
Braves	81-70	10

The Dodgers can clinch a spot in the playoffs today if the following three things happen:

They beat the Nationals
Arizona beats the Giants
The Mets beat the Braves

Here are today's Dodger-relevant pitching matchups:

4:05pm
Dodgers (Chad Billingsley: 12-10, 3.66 FIP) at Nationals (Ross Detwiler: 0-6, 3.75 FIP)

The Dodgers have scored 33 runs in three games against Washington this season.

4:10pm
Braves (Tim Hudson: 1-1, 3.71 FIP) at Mets (Mike Pelfrey: 10-11, 4.33 FIP)

The Braves have won seven straight against the Mets, and 12 of 17 this season.

7:10pm
Giants (Jonathan Sanchez: 6-12, 4.04 FIP) at Diamondbacks (Kevin Mulvey: 0-1, 6.78 FIP)

The Giants won each of the first two series in Arizona this season, two games to one. This series is currently tied at one.

The last time the Dodgers made the playoffs in three out of four years was 1963, 1965, and 1966.

Diamondbacks 7, Rockies 5: From Dusk Till Dawn

DbacksSkins — Sat, 19 Sep 2009 05:38:52 -0000

More photos » by AARON J. LATHAM - AP

Dbacks color guy Matt Williams' sporadic dip into statistical language tonight can mean only one thing: Hell might be freezing over, and Jason Marquis' 2009 deal with the devil might be finished.

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Record: 65-83 Pace: 71-91 Change on last season: -8

The Dbacks came one game closer to winning the NL Wild Card tonight, knocking the Rockies off a game and bringing themselves within 19 games of the WC leader with 14 left to play. No, but seriously, the Diamondbacks continued to play the Rockies tough in 2009, bringing the season series between the teams to 7-9, but needing to win the next two games in order to overcome that ugly sweep in Coors two weekends ago and earn a season split.

After getting off to a rough, Kevin Mulvey-driven start, the Diamondbacks rallied for a come-from-behind victory and held on to win against the Colorado Rockies. Brandon Allen had a two-run, game-tying homer, Ryan Roberts had two hits, two walks, and a solo shot of his own, Stephen Drew decided to read Jim's article and had two line-drive singles, Gerardo Parra had a two-RBI double off the glove of Brad Hawpe, and Mulvey and the bullpen combined to allow only 1 run after the 3rd inning. Details, as always, after the jump.

Kevin Mulvey started out his second major league start by giving up a double to Carlos Gonzalez, a former Dbacks farmhand who hit a homer off him in his Dbacks debut last week. After getting Snakekiller Seth Smith out on a fly ball and Todd Helton on a grounder, it appeared as though he might escape without damage. However, consecutive walks to the Tool and Rockies All Star Brad Hawpe loaded the bases for Yorvit Torrealba, who is currently hitting over 1.00 with RISP. (Seriously. He's like 18-16 or something) Torrealba lined a single to CY in center. BAM! Rox 2, Dbacks 0. Mulvey struck out Ian Stewart to end the threat and advance to the bottom.

However, the Dbacks were facing mighty Jason ZOMGZ USED TO BE LEEDING THE NL IN WINZ!!! Marquis, (Not to be confused with ZOMGZSanchez) who promptly gave a run back. Chris Young singled to lead off the bottom, Stephen Drew followed with a single of his own, but Justin Upton, the best hitter on the team, tried to lay down a bunt, presumably for a hit. He was tagged out, and one has to wonder why, exactly, he would do such a thing. In retrospect, it ended up paying off as a sac bunt, as Miguel Montero drove the ball deep to RF to bring in CY on an arc that nearly left the park. Mark Reynolds, who finished 0-3 but with a walk, popped out to end the inning.

The teams traded 0's in the second, which was probably slightly less impressive for Mulvey, who was facing the Rockies' 8, 9, and leadoff hitters. After issuing a 2 out walk to his nemesis, Carlos Gonzalez, a terrible jump and a strong throw by Miguel Montero caught CarGon trying to steal 2nd for the 3rd out. In the bottom of the inning, Gerardo Parra reciprocated by erasing his own leadoff walk on a CS, and after a Ryan Roberts walk, Brandon Allen and Mulvey struck out to end it. In the third, Mulvey continued his "2 on, 2 off, 2 on, 2 off" pattern by allowing a single to Smith and a homer to short left by Tulowitzki, and Marquis struck out the Dbacks' 1-2-3 hitters in the bottom of the inning. Sign of things to come?

Um, no. Mulvey followed with his own 3-up, 3-down inning, and Miggy led off the bottom of the 4th with a deep double. Reynolds bounced into a very strange play where Miggy took off for 3rd, thought better of it, then slid back into 2nd. Meanwhile, Toolo fielded the ball but, seeing Miggy running right in front of him, ran towards him to get the out, before realizing that he needed to toss it to Clint Barmes instead, who completely miffed the tag. First and second, no outs.

The no out situation was quickly rectified by Gerardo Parra, who did one of the two things he does best: grounded into a double play, erasing Mark at 2nd but sending Miggy to 3rd. Roberts, however, singled with a liner of his own to score Montero, and Brandon Allen flexed his muscles, sending a 3-2 pitch low in the zone out onto the pool deck in right center and tying the game, for his 4th home run of his brief rookie season. Trent Oeltjen pinch hit for Mulvey but struck out. Following the game, AJ Hinch commented that if the Dbacks had still been behind his next time up, Mulvey would have hit for himself, but with a tie game and a chance to win it, he opted to bring in the bullpen.

At the time, the decision to bring in Daniel Schlereth was met by a collective groan in the Snakepit Gameday Thread, as Dbacks fans everywhere penned their suicide notes. Son of Stink responded by pitching two perfect 1-2-3 innings in a row, while the Dbacks wasted offensive opportunities in the 5th and 6th. A 2 out Upton double went for naught in the 5th, as did two 1-out walks and one 2-out walk in the 6th, when the New And Improved Chris Young reverted to Old And Fail Chris Young, popping out to Barmes with the bases juiced.

Leo Rosales pitched a perfect 7th for the *SPOILER ALERT* win, and the Dbacks finally broke through against the Rockies' bullpen in the bottom. Manager Jim Tracy brought in LOOGY Randy Flores, who promptly gave up another line-drive single to Droo into LF. Tracy pulled his lefty for a righty, who got two quick K's of Upton and Montero before Reynolds showed remarkable patience in drawing a full-count walk. Parra came to bat again, and did that OTHER thing he does really well, by getting a double with RISP -- well, maybe we should call this a "Coors Field double". The deep fly ball to RF bounced off the tip of Hawpe's glove, bounced off the wall, and rolled around to give Droo and Reynolds time to score. Parra was thrown out trying to stretch it into a triple for the 3rd out, but the Dbacks had their first lead over Colorado since the 6th inning of the first game in the Coors sweep.

Hinch brought in Scott Schoeneweis for a perfect 8th, and Power Hitter Ryan Roberts led off the bottom with his 7th home run of the season, in a sign that it might just be Arizona's night.

Juan Gutierrez, the Dbacks' de facto closer, pitched himself out of a sticky situation in the 9th for his 6th save. Gutierrez walked Hawpe to lead off and gave up consecutive singles to Torrealba and Stewart to make it 7-5, allowing only his 2nd run of the last 13 innings. With no outs and runners on 1st and 2nd, Gutierrez responded by striking out pinch hitters Jason Giambi and Garret Atkins and getting CarGon to pop out harmlessly to Miggy to end it.

It was a game that got pretty dark, pretty quickly, but the Arizona side fought their way back for another comeback win, and have now taken 3 of 4 after going 1-9 in their previous 10. After allowing 5 earned runs in 3 of his last 4 starts against the powerful Giants, Mets, and Padres offenses, Jason ZOMGWINZ Marquis rebounded against the Dbacks to give up merely 4 earned over 6. Mulvey, on the other hand, preserved his perfect Mark Grace-esque ERA of 9.00, a trend we'll be glad to see end eventually... hopefully.

[Click to enlarge, at fangraphs.com]
Badass of the Day: Ryan Roberts, +19.0%
Also mavericky: Parra, +16.9%; Schlereth, +14.5%; Allen, +13.4%
Boarding the bus to Reno: Kevin Mulvey, -21.7%
Should have stayed in bed: Chris Young, -12.3%

Pretty typical come-from-behind WP graph, with the Dbacks coming back from about an 80% chance to lose in the 4th inning. Also, the Diamondbacks got into Taco Territory for the first time in September, with a run to spare, no less. Oh joy!

In the gameday thread, which ended up with nearly 660 comments, the top poster was.... well, me, with soco coming in second with 156. NASCARbernet (63) and Jim (62) were the next two, and the only other posters with more than 47. Commenters included kishi, 4 Corners Fan, DbacksSkins, katers, friendly visiting fan coolopotamous, soco, AcucracK, snakecharmer, hotclaws, Jim McLennan, emilylovesthedbacks, eel, luckycc, asteroid, NASCARbernet, mrssoco, jazzbo13, piratedan7, Scrbl, and Wailord. Our GDT was narrowly pipped by Purple Row's, who outcommented us 664-657. (Note that both GDT's were narrowly pipped by Purple Row's Overflow Thread, with an additional 795 comments. Oh well, you win some, you lose some?)

Normal 5:10PM saturday start tomorrow, with young Mad Max Scherzer facing off against young Jason "Kinda Looks Like A Monkey" Hammel. Will the Dbacks win to take the series and keep the hopes alive of a season split? Or will the Rockies drive another stake into the hearts of the Giants? Will more random Rockies-eating bears show up in the Gameday Thread? Tune in tomorrow to find out!

That's not a rattler - it's just a little garter snake

Poseidon's Fist — Fri, 18 Sep 2009 18:00:20 -0000

More photos » by Denis Poroy - AP

Perhaps a bigger surprise than the Rockies' resurgence in the NL West this season has been that the Diamondbacks have allowed the Padres to beat them into the divisional cellar.

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This has truly been a miserable season for the Diamondbacks. I didn't truly realize just how miserable until today.

Arizona is on pace to go 71-91 this season, their third worst season in franchise history. Only their inaugural season in 1998 (65-97) and that sorry 2004 team (51-111) has finished below 76 wins. Just for your comparison, the Rockies have 91 losses just thrice - 1993, 2004 and 2005. And this Arizona team was almost universally expected to finish in the top three in the NL West, with several projections placing them atop the division.

Losing their ace and cleanup hitter from 2008 for the season sure doesn't help, but the futility doesn't just come from those two players' absences. Anyone that had Arizona 24 games out at this point needs their own TV show.

Naturally, in all things sensical, it is the D-Backs that are just coming off a near sweep of the Padres, breaking San Diego's six-series win streak in the process. This after losing 9 of their last 10 games. After winning their last five games in August, Arizona is 4-11 in September. Baseball can be so random at times.

With one win in the series, Colorado will clinch the season series from Arizona, quite the rebound from the 3-15 mark they put up last season. Arizona's pitiful 32-40 home record bests only Washington, Cleveland and Kansas City for the worst home marks in the league, and given the Rockies are 38-37 on the road, the home field advantage for the series is flat non-existent.

Go hang out at AZ Snakepit. They are good people.

Scoreboard Watch

San Francisco (3.5 game lead) @ Los Angeles (5GB). Vicente Padilla vs Jonathan Sanchez. Jon Garland vs. Brad Penny. Randy Wolf vs. Tim Lincecum.

Atlanta (4.5) vs. Philadelphia. Tim Hudson vs. J.A, Happ. Javier Vazquez vs. Pedro Martinez. Tommy Hanson vs. Cliff Lee.

Florida (5) @ Cincinnati. Rick VandenHurk vs. Homer Bailey. Ricky Nolasco vs. Bronson Arroyo. Sean West vs. Kip Wells.

Arizona Diamondbacks (64-83, L1, 5th, 24 GB)

Friday-Sunday: 3-game series at Chase Field

The Bats: C

As Rockies fans know, it is hard to have a functioning offense with automatic outs in the lineup. All season, Arizona has suffered with whoever was playing in CF or 1B (and in LF before Conor Jackson left). With Brandon Allen showing signs of life and Chris Young heating up finally like D-Back fans prayed for all season, the easy outs are harder to come by. They still have terrible OBP at the top of the lineup, but there's a considerable power threat from the top five in the batting order.

For the season, they have the 4th worst batting average in the NL and MLB in spite of enjoying the benefits of Chase Field. Their 158 HR are 4th in the NL, easing them up to 10th in the NL in wOBA. They are middle of the pack in runs scored with 652, 8th in the NL. But with Chris Young starting to hit, the lineup is more dangerous than has been this season thus far.

LINEUP	Avg	HR	RBI	OBP	SLG	wOBA	OPS+
Chris Young - CF	.206	13	38	.307	.399	.312	80
Stephen Drew - SS	.257	12	58	.321	.432	.323	91
Justin Upton - RF	.308	24	76	.377	.550	.399	134
Miguel Montero - C	.300	14	53	.361	.487	.362	115
Mark Reynolds - 3B	.272	42	97	.363	.571	.398	135
Gerardo Parra - LF	.293	5	54	.324	.408	.315	87
Ryan Roberts - 2B	.271	6	21	.362	.401	.341	96
Brandon Allen - 1B	.224	3	24	.306	.421	.309	84

AJ Hinch has juggled his lineup in response to hot streaks (Young/Upton) and cold streaks (Drew/Reynolds/Roberts), also optimizing the left/right combo to the full extent. However, to do so, he had to put Chris Young back at the leadoff spot, drop Ryan Roberts - who has hit just as well as Felipe Lopez did - to 7th, and drop their best hitter and MLB's 2nd leading home run hitter to 5th. Even considering the streaks involved, It doesn't make a whole lot of sense to me.

Via OPS+, Upton and Reynolds are strong All-Star caliber hitters and Montero is solidly above average. Roberts is about average, Drew is a slightly below, Parra is moderately below while Allen and Young have been relative deadweights.

Chad Tracy (.227, 6, 34), Rusty Ryal (.262, 2, 3) and Augie Ojeda (.235, 1, 13) are Hinch's backup infielders. Alex Romero (.259, 1, 18), Eric Byrnes (.216, 6, 26) and Trent Oeltjen (.246, 3, 4) are on the bench as OFers while Luke Carlin (3-for-17) and John Hester (5-for-15, 1 HR) are the reserve backstops.

Hop after the jump for the scouting report on the arms, the D, the pitching matchups and the hot/cold players.

The Arms: B-

The Diamondbacks will throw out their top two starts for the series, including rejuvinated OMGace Dan Haren. Scherzer and Haren have faced the Rockies in the same series once this season, with Arizona taking that series in Coors Field (although Scherzer actually lost his game). Kevin Mulvey is no better than any of the pitchers we feasted on against the Mets or Reds.

Juan Gutierrez has arguably been the best reliever for Arizona this season and has taken a strangehold on the closer's role after Chad Qualls went down.

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Juan Gutierrez	4-3	60	0	0	0	5	1	65.0	60	29	28	2	29	60	3.88	1.37

Gutierrez is joined in the pen by lefties Daniel Schlereth, Scott Schoeneweis and Clay Zavada as well as right handers Blaine Boyer, Bryan Augenstein, Daniel Cabrera, Leo Rosales, Yusmeiro Petit and Esmerling Vasquez.

The D: C+

Arizona has been 2nd in MLB in errors for most of the season, and they sit eight behind Washington's league high 124. UZR-wise, their season-long range marks grade out above average, as they are 9th in the league. Parra, Reynolds, Allen and Young are graded as weak by UZR, while the rest of the lineup is solid, led by Upton's 8.0 UZR/150.

The Ballpark: VERY STRONG hitter's park

Chase Field has officially taken the torch from Coors Field as the NL's best hitters park. This year, Chase is playing at a Baseball-Reference park factor of 108, clearly stronger even than Coors Field's 105/106 (both have multi-year factors of 107). The park is extremely friendly to home runs and triples, giving a good shot in the arm for doubles as well.

Probable Pitchers:

Tonight, 6:40 pm MDT

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Jason Marquis	15-11	34	29	2	1	0	0	195.1	193	88	82	13	64	98	3.78	1.32

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Kevin Mulvey	0-1	3	1	0	0	0	0	7.0	12	7	7	2	3	5	9.00	2.14

Frankly, I'm a little worried about Jason Marquis, who has been poor in three of his last four starts. It is the first time all year he has given up 5+ ER three times in four starts, and he was facing three of the most anemic offenses in the league in Sad Diego, San Francisco and New York. The only time he has faced Arizona this season was in his third start of the year, when he allowed 6 ER on 9 hits (2 HR) in 5 IP at Chase Field. Luckily, he's drawing the weakest of starters for Arizona. Kevin Mulvey stepped into the rotation in place of Yusmeiro Petit with no big league starts under his belt. The waiver wire pickup from Minnesota got knocked around in his start Saturday while wearing a "Los DBacks" jersey, allowing 6 ER on 11 hits in 4 IP to Milwaukee. In his appearance before that, he served up a home run to Carlos Gonzalez and walked three Rockies. He utilizes a high-80's fastball, low-80's slider, mid-70's curve and will mix in a changeup now and again. Favors: ROCKIES moderately

Saturday, September 19, 5:10 pm MDT

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Jason Hammel	8-8	30	27	1	0	0	0	156.1	184	85	76	13	39	112	4.38	1.43

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Max Scherzer	9-9	29	28	0	0	0	0	160.0	158	87	72	18	55	162	4.05	1.33

Just when I started heaping uninhibited praise on Hammel, he broke his 8-game 3ER or less streak, allowing four to the Giants at AT&T. One very unpublicized part of Hammel's game is his 0.75HR/9, which is absolutely fantastic for a fifth starter for the Rockies. Part of that has been his filthy curveball, which Fangraphs has rated as 7th best in MLB, sandwiched in between Barry Zito and Chris Carpenter. Nice company. He threw two scoreless innings in relief at Chase Field in April and allowed 3 ER in 6 IP Sept 4 at Coors against the D-Backs. After suffering a miserable August, Max Scherzer has rebounded a bit in September, allowing 1 ER in two of his 3 starts. The heterochromic right-hander faced the Rockies twice this year, both times at Coors in July, having success neither night. He allowed 9 runs (7 earned) in 10 innings, serving up home runs to Troy Tulowitzki and Ian Stewart, This is a fairly even pitching matchup. Hammel has the better FIP, but Scherzer has the better tRA. Favors: DRAW

Sunday, September 20, 1:10 MDT

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Ubaldo Jimenez	13-11	30	30	1	0	0	0	198.0	170	81	78	12	75	173	3.55	1.24

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Dan Haren	14-8	34	30	3	1	0	0	209.1	166	68	65	25	32	201	2.79	.95

After being consistent for so long, it's odd to say Ubaldo has not given us what we wanted to see the last two starts. Tuesday at AT&T was the kind of abomination we ought to expect every once in a while, as even aces have bad games. Coming off that hamstring injury, one might think the leg contributed to the poor start. But I didn't see any evidence of that - I saw rust. If he can get Ian Stewart to play third and get back into his routine, we'll see the Ubaldo of old. After four weeks of struggles from mid-July to mid-August, Dan Haren has returned back into a forceful hurler. Since getting lit up in Philly, he has allowed no more than 3 ER in 5 straight starts. He did allow home runs in 9 of his last 10 starts before pitching in the land dingers go to die his last outing, so he could be vulnerable to the heavy hitters at Chase. Combine that with the fact that he walks no one and strikes out plenty, and the Rockies need to be very aggressive to achieve success. Overall, Haren has a slight edge over Jimenez in tRA and FIP. The two locked horns on July 5, with Haren besting Jimenez in the rubber game 4-3. Favors: DIAMONDBACKS slightly

My take: This series isn't absolutely essential in terms of the wild card. The Giants and Dodgers will beat up on each other. The Marlins are probably out of it as is and the Braves will get all they can handle against Philly. Even with a series loss, they'll still be in prime position. Now that I'm done sandbagging, the pitching matchups give the Rockies a solid chance in every game and there's no reason to drop this series. Rox take two,

Chris Young is hitting a stout .302/.373/.698 (.438 wOBA) for the month of September with 6 HR. Starting with the series at Coors Field two weeks ago, the CF has hit safely in 10 of 12 games. His previous best stretch of 10 games with hits was 16 games to start the season. Gerardo Parra is hitting .367 and Miguel Montero .327 this month. Juan Gutierrez has permitted just one run in his last 12.1 IP.

Ryan Roberts is hitting only .152 (7-for-46) in September, while Eric Byrnes, Stephen Drew, Mark Reynolds and Brandon Allen are all batting at a .220 clip or worse since the monthly calendar flip. Daniel Schlereth just gave up four runs in his last outing, Daniel Cabrera threw three scoreless innings in his last relief appearance, but in his only other appearance this month, he faced 5 Rockies and all scored in his D-Backs debut.

Chad Qualls is out with a nasty knee injury he sustained August 30 and will not return this season. Conor Jackson (Valley Fever - 5/12) and Brandon Webb (shoulder - 4/7) are also on the 60-day and have essentially provided no value to the team all year. Eric Byrnes (fractured hand - 6/26), Chris Snyder (lower back - 8/23) is on the 15-day. Snyder may still return this year - everyone else has been shut down for the season.

Poll

Good series?

A sweep is always good, yeah.

40 votes

It's a series win on the road vs Haren and Scherzer. That's a yes

104 votes

Losing the series hurts, but we'll still be in good position for the playoffs, and that's all that matters

19 votes

Swept by Arizona. THE SKY IS FALLING!

12 votes

175 votes | Poll has closed

Your 2009 Triple-A Diamondbacks?

Jim McLennan — Mon, 14 Sep 2009 06:00:30 -0000

More photos » by ED ZURGA - AP

Gerardo Parra, probably the biggest 'impact rookie' for the Diamondbacks in 2009.

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When John Hester came to the plate as a pinch-hitter last month - and promptly homered - he became the ninth player to make his major-league debut this season in an Arizona Diamondbacks shirt. It seems like we'd seen that happen quite a lot this year. But how does the number of rookies, and the playing-time they have received, stack up against previous Arizona seasons? Does this indicate 2009 was a 'rebuilding year' - a notion rejected by Derrick Hall in a recent chat - or is just the normal turnover resulting from injury and other issues?

Firstly, let's just take a look at the players who made their major-league debuts with the Diamondbacks. I've divided these into two categories: those called up during the bulk of the season, and September call-ups, as the latter likely deserve separate consideration. [* = 2009 wins total is extrapolated to 162 games]

Year	Main	Sept.	Total	Wins
1998	10	2	12	65
1999	5	1	6	100
2000	4	0	4	85
2001	6	5	11	92
2002	2	0	2	98
2003	10	0	10	84
2004	11	2	13	51
2005	3	1	4	77
2006	7	2	9	76
2007	7	2	9	90
2008	6	1	7	82
2009	9	0	9	70*

It's probably no great shock to see that 2004 had the highest number of AZ debutants and 1998 the next most - indeed, the opening game in franchise history alone, was the first appearance of three players, Travis Lee, Scott Brow and Edwin Diaz. Generally, it seems true that the more rookies that you need to use, the fewer games you end up winning. This probably makes sense; mid-season call-ups are needed to replace those who are injured or ineffective, and they will be, almost by definition, replacement-level players.

Given this, a couple of aberrations stand out. Our World Series team in 2001 saw a record number of September call-ups, though the players concerned contributed zero at-bats or innings to our post-season performance. Indeed, only one of the eleven newcomers all year saw any playoff action: Troy Brohawn ended Game 6 in the World Series, when we were 15-2 ahead. 2003 is also interesting: we'd used ten rookies by the All-Star break, but still had a winning record. However, their quality was generally more than replacement level, especially pitchers Brandon Webb (a 2.84 ERA in 180.2 IP), Oscar Villarreal (2.57 ERA, 98 IP) and Jose Valverde (2.15 ERA, 50.1 IP).

However, not all debutants are created equal. Their impact ranges from the 562 at-bats by Travis Lee in 1998, all the way down to the one (and a strikeout, at that) from Ken Huckaby in 2001 - hey, at least he can stil say he played for a World Series-winning team. I wonder if he got a ring? So, let's narrow it down with an (admittedly arbitrary) standard of what constitutes an 'impact rookie' - 100 plate-appearances or thirty innings pitched. How does the numbers stack up then?

Year	# Rookies	Hitters	Pitchers
1998	2	Travis Lee Danny Klassen
1999	1	Erubiel Durazo
2000	1		Geraldo Guzman
2001	3	Junior Spivey	Troy Brohawn Bret Prinz
2002	1		John Patterson
2003	8	Robby Hammock Matt Kata	Jose Valverde Oscar Villarreal Stephen Randolph Brandon Webb Andrew Good Chris Capuano
2004	10	Doug Devore Andy Green Tim Olson Scott Hairston Chris Snyder Chad Tracy	Brian Bruney Lance Cormier Casey Daigle Greg Aquino
2005	1		Brandon Medders
2006	4	Stephen Drew Carlos Quentin	Enrique Gonzalez Tony Peña
2007	3	Justin Upton Mark Reynolds	Micah Owings
2008	3	Alex Romero	Leo Rosales Max Scherzer
2009	3	Gerardo Parra	Clay Zavada Esmerling Vasquez

That's an average of 3.3 impact rookies per year. Given this, the degree to which the team relied on its young players in 2003 and 2004 becomes very apparent from the chart above, with as many or more 'impact rookies' in each season as from 1998-2002 combined. As noted above, one can only wonder how awful our 2003 record might have been, had we not got 329 innings at an ERA+ around 175 from Brandon Webb et al. I also note that very few of the relatively large raw number of 2001 rookies qualified as having an impact.

If we've been rebuilding of late, there hasn't been quite the same influx of newcomers to the big leagues in the past couple of seasons. While we're not done yet this year, with only 18 games left, Brandon Allen has about the only chance of joining the list for 2009, with 67 PAs before today. While Trent Oeltjen has a few more, his playing-time has all but evaporated with the return of Chris Young and Eric Byrnes. Bryan Augenstein (15 IP), could possibly also get there, especially if he ends up replacing Max Scherzer down the stretch.

As a final measure, we can add up the number of PAs and IP by debutants, to give an overall measure who reliant the team was on newcomers. For this measure, I'm allowing September call-ups to count both in their first season and the one which followed, since the September playing-time is often more a token gesture than anything. It'd be nice if baseball-reference.com allowed you to restrict results to rookies in its Play Index. Would certainly have made compiling this chart a good deal easier. Note that if a player was a Sep. call-up on another team, his second year stats in AZ aren't counted. I can't think of many such cases, though I have included Kevin Mulvey, who debuted for the Twins earlier this year, before being traded to Arizona. PA's by pitchers aren't included.

Year	IP	PA	RF
1998	261.1	755	1,884
1999	73.2	253	571
2000	76.0	199	527
2001	128.0	238	791
2002	96.0	10	425
2003	506.2	542	2,731
2004	186.1	1,496	2,301
2005	87.1	99	476
2006	153.2	559	1,222
2007	211.2	849	1,763
2008	107.0	182	644
2009	125.0	767	1,307

The last column, 'Rookie Factor', is a measure which combines the two numbers, innings pitched and plate-appearances. In 2008, the average inning lasted 4.32 PAs, so I multiply the rookie innings pitched by 4.32, and add the number of rookie PAs. This gives a number approximating the total number of Diamondback PAs, for which our debutants were responsible during the season, on both sides of the ball.

Again, this shows how vital the farm system was to the Diamondbacks in 2003 and 2004 - in the former year almost 35% of the innings pitched were by players in their first major-league season, more than twice as many as in any other year. Similarly, 24% of the at-bats in 2004 were from new players, a figure six hundred above the highest other mark, even allowing for what's left in 2009. This isn't necessarily a bad thing: it depends on the quality of the players, and any team will always have injuries in the course of the season - these holes needed to be filled, whether with veterans or not.

As a measure of rebuilding, it seems that this season, while it has had its moments, falls short of what the team went through in 2003-04, and looks to end about the middle of the pack, in franchise history. If I had to predict for next year, I think/hope that we will have a fairly-stable core of players, at least as far as the starting roster goes. There are certainly questions over a number of positions, but in most cases, it appears to be more a question of choosing between a number of (more or less qualified) candidates for the spot, rather than having an absolute questionmark.

Diamondbacks 2, Brewers 9: Los Dbacks or Lost Dbacks?

Jim McLennan — Sun, 13 Sep 2009 03:48:43 -0000

More photos » by Ross D. Franklin - AP

Readers with Photoshop skills should be able to do something with this picture of Kevin Mulvey, about to allow another hit. Probably.

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Record: 62-81. Pace: 70-92. Change on last season: -9.

The ongoing series of open tryouts for the fourth and fifth spot in the Diamondbacks' rotation continued today, as we saw prospective candidates Kevin Mulvey, Bryan Augestein and Daniel Cabrera. However, going by the overall results tonight, one wonders whether their best bet for 2010 might be a new reality show on Fox Sports Arizona, entitled America's Got Pitching Talent. Eric Byrnes could host it, from shopping malls all across the United States: a man, a radar-gun and a contract.

Hey, it worked in India. More PitchingFAIL can be found after the jump. I blame Wailord:

Anyone
excited to see how Mulvey will do in his debut today? I’m feeling a perfect game with 22K’s.
by Wailord on Sep 12, 2009 12:05 PM MST

Saturday was also Hispanic Heritage Night at Chase Field, going by the "Los Dbacks" jerseys - but I think the the team got them from Washington's supplier, and there was simply a letter missing. Because, for the second consecutive night, the Arizona starter got shelled, allowing the Brewers to take a 5-0 lead after three innings. And stop me if you've also heard this one before, but when the starter finally got yanked off the mound, his replacement managed to wriggle out of a bases-loaded, no outs jam without anyone else scoring.

However, the three runs allowed by Bryan Augenstein next inning kinda destroyed any illusion of competency there. Indeed, the only one to come out with any credibility was Daniel Cabrera - yes, he of the infamous "0 IP, 5 ER" debut for the Diamondbacks. This time, he was better, albeit in mop-up work, with three scoreless innings, on two hits and a wild-pitch - reducing his ERA with us from infinity to just 15.00. With the game not televised here in Arizona (frankly, this probably prevented a number of calls to 911, from fans who had jabbed red-hot objects into their eyes), hard to say if he was doing anything different, or the Brewers' hitters were just tired from running the bases.

Similarly, hard to say much about Mulvey's starting debut: according to ol Pete in the comments, "A lot of soft stuff - loved the 2 seamer that broke in on RHers. Could be a bottom of the rotation guy with a bit more control and just a better night." The box-score, however, is not one Mrs. Mulvey will cut out, place in an attractive frame, and hang over the fire-place. Before this weekend, Arizona starters had allowed 11+ hits over four or less innings, three times in franchise history [Omar Daal in 1998, Robert Ellis in 2001 and Livan Hernandez in 2007]. But it's now happened twice in a row; Milwaukee went 11-for-23 off Mulvey, with six earned runs in four IP tonight.

The offense didn't make any real effort to dig the team out of the hole in which Mulvey and Augenstein had placed them. The Diamondbacks came within one out of going another game hitless with runners in scoring position, before Chris Young singled home Luke Carlin in the bottom of the ninth. That was one of two hits for Young, who could quite conceivably be the best player in the National League over the past week, having gone 8-for-21 with five home-runs. It also gets his season average up to .202 - it's been any higher after only six games since April.

Stephen Drew and Miguel Montero also had a pair of hits each, the former finally getting Arizona on the scoreboard in the sixth inning. He got his tenth triple of the year, and is the only player in the majors to reach double-figures there in both of the past two years [Carl Crawford and Curtis Granderson need three more triples to join Drew]. Montero's two hits raised his 2009 average to .306, which is the best on the Diamondbacks - something I think I can safely say no-one saw coming. He's the sole catcher in the NL with 400+ PAs who's hitting above .300. Slim comfort on a day like today, yet you take it where you can.

[Click to enlarge, in new window]
Master of his domain: Chris Young, +2.7%
God-emperor of suck: Kevin Mulvey, -31.1%

That graph looks distressingly similar to last night's, with the flat-line in bold for added emphasis. It's perhaps the closest I've seen to no Diamondback being in positive territory - the only other one save Young was Cabrera, at a monstrous +0.2%. However, oddly - or perhaps not - this did not stop a lively and varied Gameday Thread, where the game was more one of the side features, again, not helped by its unavailability to anyone in Arizona.

Post-game chatter took us over 600, though I am tempted to discount all comments referring to college football ['charmer, can you automate that in some way?]. 'Skins went into three figures, but six other people cracked forty, led by soco's 89. Also taking part: Azreous, ol Pete, ZonaBacks10, hotclaws, paqs, kishi, emilylovesthedbacks, Fiona, snakecharmer, AcucracK, NASCARbernet, piratedan7, katers, Counsellmember, eel, Wailord, GuruB and venomfan.

Finally, a random aside. While looking up a link, I found this paragraph from the New York Times of October 1905: "Ostensibly because the grounds were wet, but in reality because the gate receipts did not look large enough to the contending baseball players, the third contest of the world's championship series between the Giants and the Athletics, which was to have been decided in Philadelphia to-day, was postponed until to-morrow." Wow. And we accuse moden players of being mercenary...