SB Nation - Anthony Swarzak

Twins, Washburn Continue to Make Eyes At Each Other

Jesse — Thu, 19 Nov 2009 00:13:31 -0000

More photos » by Ann Heisenfelt - AP

Does anyone else feel like this one is inevitable?

The Twins had interest at the trade deadline this year. There were trade rumors involving the Twins and Washburn back in February. Back in August of '08, the Twins placed a waiver claim on Washburn and actually won it, but the Mariners in another moment of moron-mania screwed it up by asking Minnesota for one of their young starters instead of just taking the salary dump. This is a romance that's been brewing for an awful long time, and with the Twins seemingly on the verge of becoming a premier team in baseball with one or two more quality additions I have little doubt that Washburn will do whatever he can to don a Twins uniform.

Bill Smith has already dropped hints that the front office will be taking a look at the starting pitcher options on the free agent market. Washburn, apparently, fits the bill. He wants to be here, he qualifies as a veteran (he turned 35 in August), and he's been a lock for averaging six innings a start over the course of his career. Those are some pretty basic qualifications, but that doesn't mean they're bad ones.

As long as they're not the only ones.

I haven't made a secret of my reservations about having Washburn in a Twins uniform. Allow me to illustrate why using the simplicity of the numbers, in case you remain unconvinced.

Year	AGE	IP	GS	FIP	tRA	K/9	BB/9
2006	30	187.0	31	4.78	4.88	4.96	2.65
2007	31	193.2	32	4.77	4.81	5.30	3.11
2008	32	153.2	26	4.72	5.59	5.10	2.93
2009	33	176.0	28	4.58	5.21	5.11	2.51

To make sure we're on the same page: Washburn isn't getting any better as he gets older. Which should surprise absolutely nobody. In fact he's been on a steady decline for a couple of years, and his rebound in Seattle this summer (which I'll take a pit stop at in a moment) seems more like a blip on the radar than a sign of a late-career revival.

The best thing Washburn has going for him, apart from the fact that he should (note: should) cost less than some of the other free agent starters on the market this winter, would be his durability (at least 28 starts seven of the last nine years). But that should probably be a slight concern considering the problems with his knee at the end of the season, in spite of the arthroscopic surgery. It's just another red flag for a guy who:

Has averaged a strikeout-to-walk ratio of less than 2:1 over the course of his career.
Can lose control at any time; first of the strike zone, then of his emotions.
Is a flyball pitcher (bad for next year's outfield defense) who is going to give up more than his share of bombs.
Isn't likely to out-play Minnesota's current top starters (Scott Baker, Kevin Slowey, possibly Nick Blackburn)

Washburn had a bit of a revival in 2009. Before his injury in Detroit he made 20 starts for Seattle and averaged 6.7 innings a go. His fastball was legitimately a good pitch for the first time since 2002, and his slider was better than it ever had been. He was stranding 80% of his base runners and opponents were managing a meager .249 BABIP. None of that is sustainable.

Conclusions

Where this gets tricky for me is when I know the answer to this question: does Jarrod Washburn make next year's rotation better? Because as long as he's healthy, he probably does. On paper, giving him 200 innings instead of Anthony Swarzak or Brian Duensing or Glen Perkins just might actually yield better results. And in that sense, he could make the Twins better by stengthening the back end of the rotation. We all know how the Twins like their depth.

Would it be a bad signing? Depending on the contract, probably not. I'm just hoping for something more.

I'll leave you with a conversation I had with a friend over Facebook.

Jesse wishes the Twins would stop flirting with Jarrod Washburn. STOP IT.

Ben: Dodgers are flirting with Smotz... Have you ever been at a bar, and your friend is SOOOOO wasted drunk that he's chatting up the ugliest chick in the bar? Do you see them touch hands? Maybe even noses? You try to stop him but he's too drunk to believe you? At least the twins are chatting up a hottie. Who cares if they are let down, at least they're trying. All my teams gonna get is a hang over, crabs, and a rude awakening come tomorrow.

Jesse: yeah but at least your friend is going after a cougar. i mean, at least she USED to be hot, right? the twins are just going after the girl because she's there...she's only a hottie because the twins just drank all the way through happy hour.

Ben: Point taken.

Minnesota Twins 2010 Roster & Payroll (Part II)

Jesse — Thu, 24 Sep 2009 22:48:55 -0000

Thanks for some fantastic coversation on Tuesday! Milt on Tilt, Eric In Madison, Seth Speaks, clutterheart, Fetch9, ajmargarine and everyone else who contributed made for a great discussion, helped clarify some things while running some good back-and-forth over dollars and stats.

We'll start where we left off, which was discussing how internal options would help flesh out the depth chart. All players who aren't either under contract or arbitration-eligible (serfs) will be in italics. Serfs, simply because of how much they're being paid, their options and their experience, are the easiest players to theoretically replace with free agents. Some players will be listed on the depth chart at more than one position, but we should see pretty quickly which positions have talent and depth, and which positions have flexibility but not necessarily reliability.

Catcher: Joe Mauer, Jose Morales
First Base: Justin Morneau, Michael Cuddyer
Second Base: Nick Punto, Brendan Harris, Alexi Casilla, Matt Tolbert, Steven Tolleson
Third Base: Brian Buscher, Brendan Harris, Matt Tolbert, Nick Punto, Daniel Valencia, Luke Hughes
Shortstop: Nick Punto, Brendan Harris, Matt Tolbert, Trevor Plouffe
Left Field: Denard Span, Delmon Young, Jason Kubel
Center Field: Carlos Gomez, Denard Span
Right Field: Michael Cuddyer, Denard Span, Jason Kubel
Designated Hitter: Jason Kubel

Starting Pitcher: Scott Baker, Kevin Slowey, Nick Blackburn, Brian Duensing, Francisco Liriano, Glen Perkins, Anthony Swarzak, Boof Bonser
Relief Pitcher: Joe Nathan, Matt Guerrier, Jose Mijares, Jon Rauch, Jesse Crain, Pat Neshek, Brian Duensing, Glen Perkins, Boof Bonser, Francisco Liriano

You can make an argument for another player or two being on this list somewhere, but realistically if the Twins went into next season without picking up a single free agent, this would be the essential core of players. From this group you'd need to choose 25 players.

Before we get our estimated payroll figure for those 25, we have to update our estimates for what our nine arbitration-eligible players could be worth next year. 117 comments from Tuesday's post, and using a healthy cross-section of responses as guidelines we'll alter our estimates to the following.

Player	Original Estimate	Updated Estimate
Boof Bonser	$500,000	$900,000
Carlos Gomez	$600,000	$1,000,000
Brendan Harris	$600,000	$1,100,000
Francisco Liriano	$550,000	$1,500,000
Pat Neshek	$500,000	$700,000
Glen Perkins	$550,000	$900,000
Delmon Young	$1,750,000	$1,750,000
Jesse Crain	$2,300,000	$2,300,000
Matt Guerrier	$2,100,000	$2,600,000
Totals	$9,450,000	$12,750,000

We've added $3.3 million dollars in arbitration raises. Add this new total to the committed $62,267,000 and your contractual and arbitration players are making an estimated $75,017,000. Add another eight players at the major league minimum plus a little change, and right now I have to believe that without adding a single free agent the Twins will go to Opening Day with a minimum of $78.5 million dollars. We'll call it an even $80, just in case I've been too conservative in any estimates.

That would constitute a $15 million dollar bump from Opening Day 2009, and it's far and away a franchise record. But what will the front office's limit be for spending this off-season? Will they be allowed to add another $5 million? $10 million? Some on this site have speculated the organization could go so far as to raise payroll to $100,000, even before the team has played a game in its new stadium. I tend to this that's pretty high. I also think this team will be hesitant to reach to $90 million, if only because it's so far removed from any ceiling this club has ever seen.

For now, today, until we hear something different we'll just throw out the number of $87,000,000. Some will think that's too high and a lot will think it's too low, but it's a fair number.

One look at the above depth chart and it's pretty easy to point a finger, run it across a few names and say Okay, So This Is Where We Should Start. Those places, in no particular order, should be starting pitching, shortstop, third base and second base. Check here for a current list of potential free agents, but here's a list of players who could potentially cost $7 million or less per season.

Starting Pitchers: Erik Bedard, Daniel Cabrera, Doug Davis, Josh Fogg, Jason Marquis, Brett Myers, Vincente Padilla, Carl Pavano, Brad Penny, Mark Prior, Jarrod Washburn, Randy Wolf

I purposely left a few names off this list, but this is still fairly exhaustive. Which one of these guys, if any, would constitute enough value for the Twins to shell out millions of dollars with the hope that their additional wins would be worth the value over in-house, cheaper, more familiar options? If you only have $7 million to spend, are you willing to blow it all on one veteran starter? Or maybe the gambling type, and would bring in Prior on a one-year, incentive laden deal? Hell, he'll only be 28.

Third Base: Adrian Beltre, Joe Crede, Bobby Crosby, Mark DeRosa, Nomar Garciaparra, Troy Glaus, Miguel Tejada, Juan Uribe

See anyone you like here? Crede likes it in Minneapolis, would he take another incentive-laden deal based on plate appearances or games played? Or does your gamber's mentality take you to Glaus?

Second Base: Ronnie Belliard, Jamey Carroll, Mark DeRosa, Jerry Hairston Jr, Adam Kennedy, Placido Polanco

Carroll is having a good season for a bad ballclub. Belliard is awful. Do you like DeRosa's versatility enough to pay your entire $7 million stipend? Because he'll come at a cost. Polanco's got a big head, so that's fun.

Shortstop: Orlando Cabrera, Alex Cora, Bobby Crosby, Adam Everett, Khalil Greene, Marco Scutaro, Miguel Tejada, Omar Vizquel

The reality is that no matter where you look in these four positional categories, a vast majority of what you see are either retreads trying to make a comeback, older guys hanging on, younger(ish) players who really aren't very good or other warts-ridden profiles. Keep in mind that this is a list of guys who could make $7 million or less per season, but even those who could make more than that aren't all that great. The few diamonds in the rough will be snatched up, quickly, and will likely be overpaid due to simple economics. So long, Jamey Carroll.

It's not a good free agent class, but in some ways this organization doesn't have a choice going into next season. Not signing a free agent will seem, to the masses (ignorant or not), like just another "stingy" move by a "stingy" front office, although there's been nothing stingy about this organization for years. It's a new stadium being filled with a handful of star players, and the public will expect the Twins to make a splash. Right or wrong.

How would you handle it? It's a complicated decision, and for a team that has more than its share of needs there won't be endless millions to throw around. Unless, of course, you want to make trades or cuts...but that's another story for another day.

I'll leave you to ponder for the time being, on the final off-day for the Twins as we head into the season's final trio of series. Let's enjoy some fall baseball tonight, cheer on the Indians, and I'll see you tomorrow.

Twins Weekend Notes: Rich Harden, Brad Penny, September Callups

Jesse — Mon, 31 Aug 2009 00:20:36 -0000

Another weekend come and gone, and another series victory for the Twins. Let's hit some weekend highlights.

The Twins picked up Ron Mahay.
The Twins picked up Jon Rauch.
Joe Crede has finally hit the disabled list.
Yohan Pino was shipped to Cleveland to complete the Carl Pavano deal.
The Twins claimed Rich Harden. Lots of interesting stuff on that front over the weekend. Joe Christensen believes the Twins could pull something off without negotiating an extension, although "two people close to Harden" think a deal with Minnesota isn't likely. By now you probably know that Harden would be a type-A free agent after the season, has a string of arm injuries under his relatively young belt, and has pitched like a gang buster (whatever that means) since the All-Star Break.
In the same report, it sounds like Christensen essentially believes the Twins will exhaust options on the Harden front before committing money to Brad Penny. We've talked about that, too. Whatever happens, we should have a lot more answers by this time tomorrow night.
Tyler Mason at MLB.com says that Gardenhire's list of September callups will include Brian Buscher, Matt Tolbert and Anthony Swarzak. It also sounds like Gardy would like to see somebody called...let me check the name...Daniel Valencia?
John Perrotto of Baseball Prospectus believes the Twins will be using both Francisco Liriano and Glen Perkins out of the 'pen when they return, which should bolster that side of the pitching staff even more than it already has been. It would of course mean a spot could be found in the rotation for a Harden or a Penny.
Patrick Reusse somehow believes that the Twins had veterans they could have traded in order to bring in some minor league talent, but that their .500 record in a sub-par division has robbed them of that luxury. I don't know who those veterans could have been this year, unless you want to count R.A. Dickey, Sean Henn, Luis Ayala or...really, I don't know. Mike Redmod? Michael Cuddyer? Dynomite idea. The Twins have made a series of moves that have improved this year's club without mortgaging anything of definite value in the future. I'm not sure what the problem is here.

See you tomorrow!

Meet: Armando Gabino

Jesse — Tue, 25 Aug 2009 18:34:49 -0000

Who else we've met in 2009: Luis Ayala, Jose Morales, Sean Henn and Bob Keppel

After having the luxury of being able to watch the Twins run off a streak of wins before taking a major league mound for the first time, tonight Armando Gabino will become the tenth pitcher to start a game for Minnesota in 2009.

Gabino's career began quietly, signing with the Cleveland Indians as an undrafted free agent out of the Dominican Republic in 2001 when he was 17. He was also a third baseman originally, and was converted to a pitcher in 2003. In 2004, the 20-year old right-hander made his debut in the State-side Indians' system, pitching a decent but unimpressive 19 innings for Burlington, a Cleveland rookie-league squad. He allowed just one home run on 20 hits, walking five and striking out 12. He allowed 13 runs, but only nine were earned.

Left unprotected, the Twins nabbed him in the Rule 5 draft after the season. Whatever he may have shown in those 19 innings, Minnesota must have seen something that caused them to take a flier. They may have even liked him prior, as he played in the Dominican. Making his Twins-system debut in '05, Gabino made just three starts in 17 appearances and was hammered. 45 hits and 12 walks in just 30 innings led to 28 runs, and suffice it to say the Twins started in rookie league for the third consecutive season in '06.

This time, however, five good games (including one start, his last until this season in Rochester) earned him a promotion almost immediately. He spent most of 2006 in Beloit, appearing in relief 16 times while not experiencing significant fluctuations in walk or strikeout rates. His groundball rate did rebound, which helped keep balls in the park.

Excellent walk rates, allowing less than a hit per inning and keeping the ball in the park earned him a promotion after just 22 innings with Beloit in 2007. In Fort Myers, now 23, Gabino continued to excel: 27 hits in 37 innings, just one home run and 25 strikouts earned him his second promotion of the year. In 16 innings in New Britain, Gabino didn't allow a run. He retired 14 on strikes, and generally was on fire.

Minnesota kept him in double-A for the whole of 2008, where he made 49 relief appearances and accumulated 81.1 innings, to the tune of a 3.10 ERA. The walk rates had doubled since Beloit, but he was still excelling at keeping the ball in the park.

This season saw him dropped into triple-A for the first time at 25, eight years after signing with Cleveland. His first 31 appearances were all out of the bullpen, but with Brian Duensing and Anthony Swarzak in Minnesota the Red Wings were in need of starters. In those five starts, Gabino compiled a 2.16 ERA. Impressive, to be sure.

Owning what's been called a "heavy" fastball in the low to mid-90's, a breaking ball and an off-speed pitch, Gabino's "stuff" might actually be better than Swarzak's. When he makes his debut tonight, watch the movement he displays not just on that slider, but on his fastball as well. Right now, the Twins are in desperate need of a guy to step up and fill some empty shoes, and if Armando can strike while the iron is hot, then this will becomes his job to lose.

Good luck tonight, Armando. Pitch your tail off.

Armando Gabino

#63 / Pitcher / Minnesota Twins

Height: 6-3

Weight: 210

Bats: R

Throws: R

Born: Aug 31, 1983

We've Seen This Script Before: Twins Lose 11-1

Adam Peterson — Fri, 21 Aug 2009 12:23:39 -0000

More photos » by Tony Gutierrez - AP

4 months ago: Texas Rangers' Marlon Byrd, left, is congratulated by third base coach Dave Anderson (16) following his solo home run in the second inning of a baseball game against the Minnesota Twins, Thursday, Aug. 20, 2009 in Arlington, Texas. (AP Photo/Tony Gutierrez)

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The Texas Rangers drove another nail in the coffin of the Minnesota Twins 2009 season, beating the Twins 11-1 last night in Arlington. Tell me if any of you have seen this script before:

Twins starter gets knocked around early, putting the team in a deep hole? Check. After cruising through a 1-2-3 first inning, Anthony Swarzak began the second by hanging a breaking ball to Marlon Byrd. Texas up 1-0. Home runs in the third by Julio Borbon and Byrd's second of the game put the Twins in a 4-0 hole.

Missed opportunities with runners in scoring position? Check. In the top of the 6th, down 4-0, Denard Span and Orlando Cabrera started off the inning with back to back singles. Joe Mauer hit a screaming liner to third, which Michael Young snared. One out. Michael Cuddyer followed with a single to load the bases, chasing Texas starter Derek Holland. Enter flame throwing Neftali Feliz. After lining a 98 MPH fastball straight back, Joe Crede's bat shattered into a million pieces with a weak grounder right to third base. Double play, end of inning, end of threat.

Gardy leaves starter in an inning too long? Check. After gutting his way through a single and a walk in the 5th, Swarzak trotted out to start the bottom of the 6th after the Twins rally fell short. Nelson Cruz said "Thank you very much", driving a home run over the left field fence. 5-1 Rangers. Swarzak's body language said it all. He was cooked. After a walk to Taylor Teagarden (one of the great names in baseball), Gardy had finally seen enough.

Mediocre middle relief throws gasoline on the fire? Check. Enter Bobby Keppel. Elvis Andrus double, Borbon double, Young double. Texas up 8-1. Exit Bobby Keppel. Thanks for playing.

Twins play out the string, failing to mount a threat down 7 runs? Check. After the 6th, the Twins failed to get a runner to second base.

Notes, studs and duds follow the jump.

Notes from last night's game:

Delmon Young's hot streak continued with a solo home run to left field in the 5th inning. He was 2 for 4 in the game, and is now batting .267/.290/.857 with 5 HR and 13 RBI in August. His season OPS is approaching .700 (now at .687).
Justin Morneau sat out the last three games with an inner ear infection and dizziness. He flew back to Minnesota yesterday to see a specialist and see if additional medications will help.
Neftali Feliz is really good. He looks like this year's version of 2002 K-Rod or 2008 David Price. While his long term future is in the Rangers rotation, Texas is doing the right thing to limit his innings and pitch him in high leverage late game situations. Nolan Ryan has really built a solid core of young pitchers, with Holland, Hunter, Feliz, and others.
Joe Mauer was robbed of line drive hits a few times yesterday by a diving Josh Hamilton in center field, third baseman Michael Young, and Marlon Byrd in left field. He could easily have been 4 for 4. Let's hope he's not 3 hits short of batting .400 this year.

Studs:

1. Marlon Byrd: 2 HR, 4 RBI, Byrd put Texas up for good in the third.

2. Neftali Feliz: Ended the Twins threat in the 6th, allowing only a Redmond single in 1.2 innings.

3. Julio Borbon: 3 for 5, HR, 2 R, 3 RBI. Showed some pop for a speedster.

Duds:

1. Bobby Keppel. Three batters, three doubles.

2. Joe Crede. 0 for 3 with the key GIDP in the 6th.

3. Jeff Manship: 5 hits in 1.2 innings. Some of the hits were quite unlucky (grounder that Cabrera could have had, etc.), but he may have been lucky to give up only 2 runs.

Five things this year is still good for

Jon Marthaler — Mon, 17 Aug 2009 12:30:08 -0000

The Twins haven't won a series since July, and considering they've taken on the post-strip-mining Indians twice and the hapless Royals once in that time, that's saying something. Specifically, what it's saying is that this season is over. Finished. Done-zo. Fin.

Most of you agree with me, judging by last night's poll. Unless the pitching staff makes a miraculous bootleg turn and veers over to "respectable", playoffs are not in Minnesota's future. And yet, 45 games are left to play, and honestly that 2010 season is coming up quicker than you might expect.

With that in mind, here's the five things that I think the Twins can still accomplish in 2009:

1. Start priming the Danny Valencia pump.

Few seem to doubt that Valencia is Minnesota's third baseman of the future, and with Joe Crede unlikely to be back next year, Valencia's going to have to start learning the major-league trade at some point. I can't think of a reason that some time in the majors would damage his development, unless he's super-fragile mentally, and if that's the case then he's probably not the answer in 2010 anyway. The remainder of the season would give Valencia some time to try his luck in the majors. (And - not to be too cynical here, but Crede's only at 338 plate appearances, and he's got plenty of bonuses coming up based on PAs. Valencia could save some money.)

2. Decide once and for all on Delmon Young and Carlos Gomez.

Something has to give, here. Remember, Young is younger than Denard Span and only three months older than Gomez, so we're not talking about any wily veterans here, no matter what the service time says. Michael Cuddyer and Jason Kubel are both signed through 2010 with club options for 2011; Span, Gomez, and Young are all under team control through 2012 or 2013. We know Kubel will be the regular DH for the foreseeable future, Span seems to have locked down a lineup spot, and as for Cuddyer, the Twins aren't about to dump a team leader that has a 123 OPS+. We all know about the strengths and weaknesses of the two players - and neither is being well-served by playing only half the time. Something's gotta give here, and the team might as well figure that out over the rest of this season.

3. Let the starting rotation work out some issues.

Every starter is going out there and pressing - Francisco Liriano overthrows, Nick Blackburn stops driving with his lower body, Anthony Swarzak juts out his jaw and tries to throw the ball 135 miles an hour and actually through a hitter's bat. No doubt every pitcher in the rotation feels a target on his back, when what each one really needs is to get out there and work through his problems. Even if it turns into spring training on the mound, the young pitchers need to know that they should be out there working on their pitches, working on getting themselves to where they should be, rather than focusing exclusively on winning. (Put another way: I'm not sure we should see Carl Pavano every fifth day, either.)

4. Keep a few miles off the odometers in the bullpen.

There's really no reason for Matt Guerrier to pitch every other day, is what I'm saying. It'd be nice to get some chances for guys who the Twins hope to be late-inning guys soon - your Jose Mijareses and your Anthony Slamas, for example - rather than just reflexively going to Guerrier in the eighth inning.

5. Mauer.

He's hitting .377 again. He could win the batting title again. (If he went berserk, yes, he could conceivably chase .400, too.) Moreover, he has 22 home runs and should be a legitimate part of any discussion about AL MVP, even if the Twins finish 70-92. No matter how bad the Twins are, Mauer will always be a joy to watch.

(And there's that small matter of contracts and free agency and such, too. But I hardly need to explain that.)

Joe Mauer Homers, Swarzak Roughed Up

Jesse — Sun, 16 Aug 2009 11:55:27 -0000

More photos » by Paul Battaglia - AP

4 months ago: Minnesota Twins' starting pitcher Anthony Swarzak gets pulled by manager Ron Gardenhire, left, during the fifth inning of a MLB baseball game against the Cleveland, Saturday, Aug. 15, 2009 in Minneapolis. Swarzak gave up five runs on eight hits as the Indians won 7-3. (AP Photo/Paul Battaglia)

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Twins 3, Indians 7

It's hard to always have the right perspective on a season. If your team struggles early on it can seem like the end of the world, but unless you play for Pittsburgh or Kansas City it's rarely true. When you get to this point of the season however, and you continually drop games you ought to be winning, well, the perspective probably takes on a bit of a different view.

Now it's to the point where you have to start questioning whether the Twins really should be expected to beat teams like the Indians and the Royals. Minnesota has better top-end talent, but that talent hasn't blossomed on the pitching side of the equation like we'd hoped. When Twins starters take the mound this season it's like a crap shoot; if the dice come up snake eyes it usually means an early hole for the offense. And a deep one at that.

Joe Mauer's 22nd home run of the year, in the bottom of the ninth, was too little, too late for the Twins. After scoring a pair of runs in the fifth to close the gap to five, it was all the offense could manage against garbage arms like David Huff and the strugglig Rafael Perez. And with Anthony Swarzak rolling those snake eyes, three runs wouldn't have been enough if the Indians had been unable to bat after the fourth inning.

Unlike Friday night's game, where the middle of the order was given a little help from everyone else, the 7-8-9-1 hitters went 2-for-16 on the night with just one walk. Actually that skews things a little, because to be fair the whole of the middle didn't show up either; Michael Cuddyer collected just one hit, as did Joe Crede (who also picked up one RBI). So really, the 5-6-7-8-9-1 batters were 4-for-25 with a walk. Orlando Cabrera, Justin Morneau and Mauer combined for seven hits and a walk. There isn't much more you could ask for from those three.

And so it goes with the Minnesota Twins in 2009, who have now lost 60 games. Elimination is creeping upon us. A 90-win season would mean a 34 - 12 finish. An 85-win season means a 29 - 17 finish. A .500 finish means 25 - 21 to the checkered flag. I'm an optimist, but seeing the proof in front of us what's the most realistic scenario? To add a little salt into the wound, both Detroit and Chicago won.

If there was every a time for a 12-game winning streak, it's right now.

Stars
#3: Jeff Manship -- A scoreless ninth for his major league debut, striking out one. Welcome to the team!
#2: Justin Morneau -- A pair of hits and a walk, including his AL-leading 94th RBI on his 28th double of the year.
#1: Joe Mauer -- Another three-hit night, including another home run just to the left of center field. He's not hitting .378, 18 points ahead of second-place Ichiro Suzuki.

Duds
#1: Anthony Swarzak -- Even the outs were smashed. When Delmon Young makes a clutch catch over his head, something is amiss.
#2: Joe Crede -- A hit, but six runners were stranded.
#3: Denard Span -- Hitless in five plate appearances; not ideal for the leadoff man.

Game 116: Indians 7, Twins 3

Ryan — Sun, 16 Aug 2009 00:03:09 -0000

More photos » by Paul Battaglia - AP

Grady Sizemore watches his sixteenth home run of the year clear the baggy.

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The Indians broke the game open in the fifth inning with four runs off Anthony Swarzak and Brian Duensing. It was a balanced attack, with several players having multiple hits. Grady Sizemore and Shin-Soo Choo both went deep, and Travis Hafner had three hits.

While Matt LaPorta continues to mash in Columbus, the Indians started Jamey Carroll in right field and Chris Gimenez at first base today. For a team looking towards 2010 and beyond, leaving LaPorta in Columbus is idiotic.

David Huff struggled to get through five innings, giving up two runs on nine hits. He got himself into a couple major jams, but he either worked his way out of it (first inning) or limited the damage (fifth inning). After Huff left, the Indians got good outings from Rafael Perez (1.1 innings, 1 hit), and Joe Smith (1.2 innings, 1 hit). Tony Sipp gave up a ninth inning home run to Joe Mauer, but recovered to retire the rest of the side in the ninth. Mauer had three hits on the day, and continues to lead the AL in all three "percentage" categoris (Batting Average, On-Base Percentage, and Slugging Percentage).

Next Up: Laffey vs. Blackburn, 2:10 PM

via www.fangraphs.com

Highest WPA		Lowest WPA
David Huff	.187	Luis Valbuena	-.075
Shin-Soo Choo	.132	Chris Gimenez	-.043
Grady Sizemore	.093	Wyatt Toregas	-.029

Does Carl Pavano Make the Twins Rotation Better?

Jesse — Sat, 08 Aug 2009 12:00:24 -0000

More photos » by Gene J. Puskar - AP

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Actually, yes. Yes, he does.

When the Twins claimed Carl Pavano off waivers this week, it set in motion events that would lead to Minnesota's biggest mid-season trade since Shannon Stewart in July of 2003. Under most circumstances an inter-division trade would seem odd, but considering Cleveland's failure of a season and their sellers aspect, they really have nothing to lose by dealing Pavano to a division rival.

There's really no question that the Twins needed some help in the starting rotation. Injuries and slow starts have been the two biggest factors affecting how effectve that rotation has been, so the addition of the 33-year old Pavano (at presumably the closest thing you can get to zero cost while still giving something up) is a step in the right direction.

Of course there are a few stock reactions of the negative variety on a move like this...

Pavano isn't a front-line starter
He hasn't been healthy for a full season since 2004 (just 45.2 MLB innings from 2006 - 2008)
That 5.37 ERA is just bad

All of those things are true, but none of them give an accurate clue as to whether he upgrades an ailing rotation. Let's see how he stacks up against our boys so far this year.

Name	GS	IP	K/9	BB/9	WHIP	Zone %	First Strike %	HR:FB	FIP
Carl Pavano	21	125.2	6.30	1.65	1.38	50.6	66.5	12.8	4.26
Scott Baker	21	127.1	7.49	1.91	1.17	53.4	61.0	11.6	4.11
Nick Blackburn	22	145	3.72	1.99	1.37	52.2	60.0	7.2	4.18
Francisco Liriano	21	118.1	8.06	4.18	1.54	45.0	54.5	12.7	4.78
Glen Perkins	17	95.1	4.25	2.08	1.48	51.9	64.6	9.8	4.63
Kevin Slowey	16	90.2	7.44	1.49	1.41	56.5	68.5	10.7	4.23
Anthony Swarzak	9	48.2	4.99	3.14	1.42	52.4	56.9	5.8	4.20

With Slowey out for the season, his leading numbers in BB/9, strike zone percentage and first strike percentage no longer qualify as "best in the rotation". Perkins, who's been moved to the bullpen anyway with the arrival of Pavano, wasn't the leader in any category.

Understanding the season that Blackburn has put together so far and knowing the direction that Baker's season has been heading, it's not unfair to say that Pavano has just become Minnesota's third best starter, if not their second. And considering that Bill Smith and the front office managed to pick him up for next to nothing, respect must be paid. The front office made a play and took a chance on the waiver wire, and it just might help.

2003 was a long time ago, but that charmed Marlins club was a good one. Pavano was a big part of their post-season success, appearing in eight different games while starting twice; he logged 19.1 innings and compiled a 1.40 ERA. That's the only time he's been to the playoffs, not having pitched for the Yankees in October during his tenure in New York. But if the Twins do somehow manage to pull off a fantastic final eight weeks, I'd have no problem with this guy being part of our post-season rotation.

August is a fun time, because sneakly little deals like this can still happen. The players and teams involved aren't always a surprise, but how they're matched can be if only because news doesn't flow as freely as it does in July.

We'll get to that waiver deadline primer tomorrow night.

Angels Smear Twins Pitching All Over 35W & 94E Interchange

Jesse — Sun, 02 Aug 2009 10:22:24 -0000

More photos » by Paul Battaglia - AP

4 months ago: Los Angeles Angels' Sean Rodriguez is safe as he dives back to first on a pick-off attempt by Minnesota Twins relief pitcher R.A. Dickey during the sixth inning of a baseball game, Saturday, Aug. 1, 2009, in Minneapolis. The Angels won 11-6. (AP Photo/Paul Battaglia)

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As far as interchanges go, it doesn't get much worse.

After allowing 11 runs in extra-innings on Friday night, the Twins decided to break everyone's heart in regulation on Saturday and allow 11 runs in the allotted nine innings. It allowed everyone to get an earlier start on their Saturday night.

Orlando Cabrera's Debut

It wasn't a bad night for O-Cab. He looks good in a Twins uniform, although this might have something to do with the fact that I now compare everyone to Tony Batista and how he looked. It's a low bar.

At the plate he collected a pair of hits, scoring on a Justin Morneau single in the third and then plating Nick Punto in the eighth. His double in the third was a shot going the other way, slicing down the right field line and into the corner. Denard Span went from first to third, with Cabrera flashing some decent speed behind him. In the field he was largely as advertised, making four put-outs in four attempts. According to his THT stats, he made one play out of the two in his zone (not great), but he also converted a pair of outs outside of his zone (which balances it out a bit). He looked good moving to his left, and on his first play in the top of the first made a play on a tough hop as he ranged toward second base before making the throw to first.

Anthony Swarzak's Night

Everything he threw just wasn't good enough. It's harsh, but I can't lie; nine hits in three-plus innings on just 64 pitches looks more like batting practice than it does anything else. He struck out one (lucky guy, Bobby Abreu, although at least two of those pitches looked like balls to me), and to his credit didn't walk anybody. Although, well...he didn't have to. Nobody wanted to take a walk with all those pitches coming through the zone. Swarzak gave up a double and a triple in addition to his seven singles. But he didn't give up any of the three home runs. So we're ending on a positive.

Joe Saunders' Night

He was pretty much what I expected, which was a good thing. It was just unfortunate that the Angels hit Swarzak harder than the Twins hit Saunders.

Les Bullpenne

That's French for "the bullpen". R.A. Dickey (2.1 IP, 3 R, 1K, 3 BB, 1 HR) and Bobby Keppel (2.2 IP, 5 H, 2 R, 2 HR) couldn't keep it close. For the first half of the game the offense was keeping the Twins in it, and after five it was just 6-4. Dickey had just thrown a scoreless fourth (not counting the one Swarzak let in after two batters), although he did make it interesting; Dickey had also thrown a scoreless fifth. Then came that damn sixth inning.

Something named Sean Rodriguez singled, Chone Figgins walked, and then Maicer Izturis (yes, MAICER IZTURIS) decided that four home runs on the season wasn't enough, because five is his favorite number. With nobody out it was suddenly 9-4, and a game well within reach was suddenly a massive uphill battle.

Keppel's first two jobs were to get Juan Rivera and Kendry Morales. It went like this: strike-ball-ball-home run; ball-strike-strike-home run.

Joe Mauer

Joe was the only Twin who didn't get a hit on Saturday night. He also didn't walk. I guess even Joe can regress to the mean. Tears.

The Rest

Jesse Crain pitched a scoreless ninth, making him the only Twins pitcher to not allow a run. Morneau collected a trio of hits, including his 27th home run which made it 11-5. Carlos Gomez picked up another triple, and Mike Redmond joined Cabrera in the doubles club. Span, Cabrera, Morneau, Redmond and Punto all collected multi-hit nights.

Stars of the Game
Honorable Mention: Carlos Gomez (1-for-4, 3B, RBI, SB, .074 WPA)
#3: Justin Morneau (3-for-5, HR, R, 2 RBI, .057 WPA)
#2: Orlando Cabrera (2-for-5, 2B, R, RBI, .071 WPA)
#1: Mike Redmond (2-for-3, R, RBI, BB, .160 WPA)

The Dark Side
#1: Anthony Swarzak (3+ IP, 9 H, 6 R, K, -.511 WPA)
#2: R.A. Dickey (2.1 IP, 3 H, 3 R, 3 BB, -.062 WPA)
#3: Joe Crede (1-for-5, -.083 WPA)