SB Nation - Daniel Ray Herrera

Trade Target: Maicer Izturis

Slyde — Wed, 09 Dec 2009 14:19:20 -0000

More photos » by Mark J. Terrill - AP

Is Maicer Izturis the potential answer to the Reds 2010 needs at shortstop?

Ed Price at MLB Fanhouse is reporting this morning that the Angels could move infielder Maicer Izturis in a deal this off-season. The 29-year old Izturis is a switch-hitter who has played a mix of 2B, SS, and 3B in his big league career and he's played all 3 fairly well defensively. Offensively, he's a career .278/.343/.393 hitter, though his power has been slightly more developed over the last couple of seasons (he slugged .434 in 2009). He shows decent, though not great patience (8.7% career walk rate), but he's only struck out in 11% of his plate appearances. Since we know that he would bat 2nd for the Reds, it's nice to know that he gets on base at a good rate and that he handles the bat pretty well to be able to do the things that Dusty would ask him to do while batting 2nd.

His hitting projections for 2010 look solidly average (only have these two systems for Izturis so far):

Projection	AVG	OBP	SLG	wOBA
Bill James	.283	.348	.392	.329
CHONE	.279	.346	.394	.331

Compare that to Paul Janish:

Projection	AVG	OBP	SLG	wOBA
Bill James	.223	.301	.319	.276
CHONE	.237	.311	.350	.298
ZiPS	.239	.310	.340

Janish's best projection still puts him about 15 runs offensively behind Izturis over 600 PA. CHONE rates them both as +5 defensively, so an acquisition of Izturis would likely bring the Reds about a win and a half in 2010.

I think Izturis is definitely somebody the Reds should pursue. One-and-a-half WAR is not a huge amount, but Izturis will likely not make more than $2.5-3 million next season, so it would definitely be a cost-effective upgrade. The question is what will the Reds have to give up. Price says in his article that the Angels are looking for a corner outfielder and bullpen help. I'm not sure if they'd have any interest in Jonny Gomes, and he's probably the most viable candidate as an outfield centerpiece to a deal.

That means the Reds probably need to go the relief route. Arthur Rhodes could be a potential candidate for dealing, and the money/contract situation would be similar (both players are free agents after 2010). Given Rhodes' age, I think the Reds should be willing to give him up in a deal since he's a definite risk to have a big dropoff any day now. I'd also consider Daniel Ray Herrera or Jared Burton available as part of a package. And of course, if the Angels wanted to take Francisco Cordero's contract, I'm sure the Reds would even be willing to chip in a couple million to make it worth the effort.

What do you think? Should the Reds pursue Izturis? Do they have a package of players to get it done?

(h/t nycredsfan)

Reds 4, Brewers 3 (10 innings)

KLSnow — Thu, 27 Aug 2009 03:48:17 -0000

More photos » by Darren Hauck - AP

Prince Fielder gave the Brewers a puncher's chance tonight, but they couldn't answer the bell in the tenth inning.

Browse more photos »

W: Daniel Ray Herrera (3-4)
L: Mike Burns (3-5)
S: Francisco Cordero (27)

HR: Jody Gerut (6), Prince Fielder (34), Laynce Nix (13)

MVP: Prince Fielder (+.209)
LVP: Mike Burns (-.291)

Win Expectancy Graph
SBNation Coverage

The Brewers wasted a pretty good start from Braden Looper tonight, who allowed just two earned runs on five hits and three walks over six innings, and left with a 3-2 lead. Unfortunately, one run wasn't enough of a cushion, as the Reds rallied to score an unearned run off Claudio Vargas in the eighth to tie the game.

All of the Brewer offense came via the home run in the fifth inning, as Jody Gerut hit a solo shot and Prince Fielder hit a two run jack to give the Brewers the lead. Fielder went 2-for-4 with a walk in the game, while Gerut went 2-for-5. Ryan Braun picked up three hits and a walk, and Jason Kendall was also on base three times, going 0-for-1 with a walk and two HBP.

The game was tied at three with two outs the top of the tenth, when Braun dramatically misplayed a fly ball to left, allowing Wladimir Balentien to score the game winning run and giving a tough luck loss to Mike Burns, who would have had a scoreless inning if Braun made the play. The Brewers had the winning run at the plate with one out in the bottom half, but Casey McGehee struck out swinging and Mike Cameron grounded out to end the game.

Reds 8, Brewers 6 (13 innings)

KLSnow — Wed, 26 Aug 2009 04:32:42 -0000

More photos » by Morry Gash - AP

If you're Chris Bosio, what do you tell Jeff Suppan at this point?

Browse more photos »

W: Daniel Ray Herrera (2-4)
L: Todd Coffey (4-3)

HR: Felipe Lopez (8), Laynce Nix 2 (12), Joey Votto (19)

MVP: Felipe Lopez (+.194)
LVP: Mike Cameron (-.288)

Win Expectancy Graph
SBNation Coverage

All told, that was a lot closer to a victory than I expected tonight, but still a loss.

On the mound, Jeff Suppan picked right back up where he left off. After missing nearly a month with a strained oblique, Suppan returned to the rotation tonight and lasted just 4.1 innings, retiring 13 batters and allowing 14 baserunners and four earned runs. As bad as it was, it could have been much, much worse: Suppan had a runner in scoring position with no one out in each of his first four innings of work. He threw 90 pitches, 50 of them strikes and remains winless since June 12.

The Brewer bats, meanwhile, waited until the last moment to wake up. Bronson Arroyo held the Crew to one run on six hits in seven innings, and struck out four. Felipe Lopez hit a solo home run to provide the team's only offense against him. Counting tonight's outing, Arroyo has now posted a 1.89 ERA in five August starts.

The Brewers came back to life in the ninth, as Frank Catalanotto reached on an error with one out, Jason Kendall drove him home on a double and Mike Rivera drew a pinch hit walk, before Dusty Baker brought in Arthur Rhodes to face Felipe Lopez, who reached on an infield single to load the bases. Craig Counsell drew a bases loaded walk to bring up Ryan Braun, who hit a two-run single to bring the Brewers within one. Prince Fielder hit a single through the left side to load the bases again, Casey McGehee drove home the tying run with a single, but Braun was thrown out at the plate trying to score on a would-be sac fly from Mike Cameron, sending the game to extra innings.

Lopez left the game after the ninth inning with what appears to be a reaggravation of his previous hamstring injury. The ensuing double switch left the Brewers out of position players, which would later force Todd Coffey to be left in to hit for himself.

After Trevor Hoffman pitched a scoreless tenth, Todd Coffey shut down the Reds offense in the 11th and 12th innings before allowing home runs to Joey Votto and Laynce Nix (his second of the game) while trying to close out a third inning. Daniel Ray Herrera retired Kendall, Alcides Escobar and Yovani Gallardo (pinch hitting) in order in the bottom of the 13th to end the game.

Brewers 5, Reds 1

kirbir — Sun, 19 Jul 2009 04:07:34 -0000

More photos » by Al Behrman - AP

Craig Counsell hit a home-run, but keeps up his gritty appearance. (AP Photo/Al Behrman)

Browse more photos »

W: Manny Parra (4-8)
L: Aaron Harang (5-10)

HR: Craig Counsell (!), JJ Hardy

MVP: Manny Parra - pitching (.242)
LVP: Manny Parra - batting (-.057); Frank Catalanotto (-.044)

Win Expectancy Graph

SB Nation Coverage

It was basically a boring baseball game until Craig Counsell hit a home-run in the top of the fourth inning. Mike Cameron hit a double and Casey McGehee hit a single to get runners on first and third. Fielder reached on a pitching error, allowing Cameron to score. Corey Hart hit a ground-rule double and Frank Catalanotto hit a sac fly, giving McGehee and Fielder the ability to score. In the bottom of the fifth inning, though, the Reds answered the Brewers' four runs with one of their own.

The rest of the game was pretty boring again until the top of the eighth, when the game was delayed on account of rain. For about two hours, we sat on the edge of our seats, just waiting for the game to be called and mocking the Reds for their lack of roofing. As 10:35-ish came around, a tired and groggy few BCB goers rejoined the game thread. The Reds brought in Daniel Ray Herrera to replace Aaron Harang after such a long rest, which worked to their advantage when he was able to retire the last two batters of the inning. Todd Coffey, however, showed that he's got enough GRIT to pitch after a nice shower.

JJ Hardy, the first batter up in the top of the ninth, hit a home-run off the third pitch from Nick Masset. Mark DiFelice was brought in to relieve some leftover Coffey. Laynce Nix was brought in as a pinch hitter for Nick Masset, who ended up being the last hitter of the night. As he struck out, at least one Brewers fan untucked her shirt. Way to go, Crew!

This Comeback Sticks, Nationals Beat Reds, 3-2 On Hard Slide!!!

Ed Chigliak — Fri, 12 Jun 2009 02:21:40 -0000

More photos » by Manuel Balce Ceneta - AP

6 months ago: Washington Nationals' Christian Guzman (15) scores as Cincinnati Reds' catcher Ramon Hernandez waits for the ball during the eighth inning of a baseball game, Thursday, June 11, 2009, in Washington. Nationals won 3-2. (AP Photo/Manuel Balce Ceneta)

Browse more photos »

It was cruising along like it was gonna be just another one of those games, you know, the other forty-two of them, but these are the new Washington Nationals, the ones that are bound to sign Stephen Strasburg, who is bound to pan out, at exactly the same time the coming wave of prospects crests, lifting the Nationals above the salary excesses of their NL East rivals and at least into Wild Card contention...These are the Washington Nationals who walked out of a two-and-a-half hour rain delay and picked up where they left off last night, tying the Cincinnati Reds in a game they would eventually lose, but today they refined their technique, and waited to strike in the eighth, turning a 2-1 deficit into a 3-2 win by forcing an error, the fate that usually befalls the team with the most combined E's of any roster in baseball. The Washington Nationals are turning the tables, this is how it happened tonight...

HEADLINES: (After the Jump...*)

E: 57

E: 5

What The ..... Is a DH?

Miss The Game? The DC Faithful Were Watching, In DC, Virginia, NJ, Syracuse, NY And Some Place Called Australia, Sounds Fancy!

Nationals Win, 3-2 Final.

DWDT: 3.

For The Completists, An Incomplete Game Report After The Jump...

Nationals now 16-42.

HEADLINES:

E: 57 - DC lefty John Lannan gave up a two-out single to Reds' shortstop Alex Gonzalez in the second, but he got the ground ball he wanted out of Cincy 1B Adam Rosales, only to have straight-shooter Ryan Zimmerman misfire on the throw to first, for his 7th Error of '09, the Nationals' 57th E as a team, and Reds' first run of the game, 1-0 Cincinnati. Two innings later it was A-Gon again, with an RBI single that scores a run in the fourth, bringing Johnny Gomes around after he was hit by a pitch from Lannan in the first AB of the inning. 2-0 Reds after four. Lannan's afternoon would end after he'd allowed 5 hits, 2 runs, 1 ER and 2 walks, with 2 K's and a 3.51 ERA after 6.0 IP.

The Nationals score a run in the sixth on three singles by Josh Willingham, Wil Nieves and pinch hitter Nick Johnson and an RBI groundout by DC SS Cristian Guzman. 2-1 Reds after six, and Julian Tavarez takes over on the hill for John Lannan. Tavarez gives up a two-out walk in the eighth, but is otherwise unharmed as he holds the Nationals close through the top of the frame, and in the bottom of the eighth inning, the Nationals strike...

Daniel Ray Herrera comes out of the pen to replace Carlos Fisher after a leadoff single in the Nationals' eighth, when most are expecting maybe, Arthur Rhodes?, but it's the third game of a road series and the Reds have won the first two, so Manager Dusty Baker goes to Herrera, at least for one batter, and the Cincy lefty allows a second single to Anderson Hernandez and the Nationals are rolling with two on and no outs and only a one-run deficit to recover from, at least, that is, until Cristian Guzman bunts too hard and the Reds take down the lead runner at third. Alberto Gonzalez singles, but not hard enough to score the tying run, so it's Ryan Zimmerman due up, with the bases loaded and a new pitcher on the way out to the mound...

E: 5 - Right-hander Nick Masset replaces Herrera, and Ryan Zimmerman steps into the batter's box. A 91 mph fastball from Masset catches the high outside corner as Zimmerman swings and misses, then a slider falls off the outside of the plate, and Zimmerman holds back. Masset comes back with a four-seam fastball that bounces, and follows with another low heater that hits 95 but is low in the zone and short of the plate. The 3-1 pitch is a fastball that Zimmerman connects with, but only for a groundout and a DP if the Reds can turn it quickly enough, Alex Gonzalez to Brandon Phillips at second, but DC's Alberto Gonzalez is charging from first, and his hard slide rocks Phillips and sends his throw flying by first, Anderson Hernandez comes around to score and Cristian Guzman follows, and the Nationals have a 3-2 lead.

Enter Joe Beimel...

Joe Beilmel failed in his first audition as closer, but Manny Acta put his trust in Beimel to save tonight's game. Jay Bruce grounds out, Alex Gonzalez flies out, and Adam Rosales does the same. Joe Beimel saves the game. The Legend Continues...What? You Haven't Heard The Legend Of Joe Beimel. Miss Chatter had the first story I read about it back in early May, in a DC Sports Bog article entitled, "The Youtube Legend Of Joe Beimel", and if you still don't know what I mean, it's about time you did:

What The ..... Is a DH?

Starting with tomorrow's 7:38 pm EST start, the Washington Nationals make a 15-game trip through the American League East, 3 this weekend against Tampa Bay, followed by 3 with NY's Yankees next week and 3 each with the Blue Jays, and Red Sox at home in DC after that and then three with the Orioles before the Nationals get back to their own league. In 75 Interleague since moving to the nation's capital in 2005, the Washington Nationals are 36-39. Stammen vs Garza in the Trop tonight...

Cincinnati Reds At Washington Nationals. Game 58 or 59 of 162.

(ed. note - "Arrived home in the bottom of the second, where the GameReport picks up...")

Bottom of Second...

...Josh Willingham hits a low liner to Brandon Phillip for the first out of the second at second. Austin Kearns draws a one-out walk . Wil Nieves should have singled if Alex Gonzalez hadn’t been there to make a slick fielding play at short. John Lannan...

Bottom of Third...

Cristian Guzman slaps a single through second for the Nationals’ first hit of the game. Alberto Gonzalez chops one to short, Guzman’s running so he avoids the DP. Ryan Zimmerman take a one-out walk in front of Adam Dunn, Dunn K’s swinging under a high heater from Owings. It’s the slow stuff that gets Elijah Dukes swinging for the final out of the third.

John Lannan hits Johnny Gomes and then walks Ramon Hernandez. Jay Bruce grounds into a force at second, first and third with one down. Alex Gonzalez knocks Bruce in with a line drive single. 2-0 Reds. Adam Rosales K’s swinging over an 0-2 curve. Micah Owings pops out to short right, Alberto Gonzales goes back ot get it...Josh Willingham smokes a line drive to left to start third. Austin Kearns swings over a 2-2 slider outside. Wil Nieves gets hit in the back with a curveball gone bad. Lannan tries to lay down a bunt, but he hits it too hard, and Adam Rosales charges in from first to cut down the lead runner at third. Cristian Guzman grounds out to first.

John Lannan gets a weak pop behind first from Jerry Hairston, Jr. Elijah Dukes glides back ot catch Willy Taveras flyout. Lannan walks Brandon Phillips to bring up Johnny Gomes with two down. Johhny Gomes pops out behind second to end the Reds’ fifth...Alberto Gonzalez takes one on the wrists, and takes a base. Ryan Zimmerman works the count full, and goes the other way with a liner right at Bruce in left. Adam Dunn pops out to second. Elijah Dukes swings through a two-strike fastball to end the fifth.

Cristian Guzman slides to field Ramon Hernandez’s grounder, and rolls and throws from his backside to first, in time! Josh Willingham’s waitiing for Jay Bruce’s liner. Alex Gonzalez flies to right center and Dukes gets to it in time...Josh Willingham goes the other way and drops a bloop single into right. Kearns pops up to first, for Rosales. Wil Nieves reaches down for fastball and lines to left to put two on for Nick Johnson, who singles to right to load the bases for Cristian Guzman grounds into a force at third, but a run scores, 2-1 Reds. Alberto Gonzalez flies out to Taveras to end the sixth.

Tavarez vs Rosales to start the seventh. Rosales flies out to left center, Hammer and Dukes almost collide. Josh Willingham is at a full spring to catch Chris Dickerson’s sinking flyout. Jerry Hairston, Jr. K’s chasing junk from Tavarez...The Reds bring on Carlos Fisher to start the seventh against Zimmerman. Zim draws a leadoff walk. Adam Dunn pops out to the infield. Elijah Dukes flies out to right on the first pitch. 1-2 pitch to Kearns, and he K’s trying to hold up on a bender that ends in the dirt.

Tavarez gets a weak grounder from Willy Taveras to second. Brandon Phillips grounds to third, Zimmerman guns him. Johnny Gomes takes a two-out walk from Tavarez. Ramon Hernandez takes strike three...Carlos Fisher’s back for the eighth, facing off against Willie Harris lines a single to right to start the home half of the frame. Anderson "Elvis" Hernandez is going to see lefty Daniel Ray Herrera. Willie Harris gets hit with a pick off play. Anderson Hernandez sneaks a single through short, two on for Guzman. Guzman bunts toward short and the pitcher throws to third, in time. Alberto Gonalez shoots a fly ball to center to load the bases. Ryan Zimmerman grounds to short, Phillips to Alex Gonzalez, Alberto Gonzalez slides in hard and the DP throw to first sails, two runs score, 3-2 DC. Adam Dunn lines to left with two down. Elijah Dukes K’s chasing...

Joe Beimel comes on to end it. Ryan Zimmerman cuts off Jay Bruce’s grounder to short, and throws to first, in time!! Alex Gonzalez flies out to left!!! The Nationals win!!! 3-2 final.

Nationals now 16-42.

My Maloney has a new profession, it's M-L-B S-P, Reds beat Cubs 4-3 in 11

BK — Sun, 07 Jun 2009 03:59:01 -0000

More photos » by Al Behrman - AP

Matty throwing a sick changeup to an unsuspecting Cub, probably Soriano. (AP Photo/Al Behrman)

Browse more photos »

Joe Nuxhall Memorial Star of the Game

Matt Maloney. I can't say enough about how well he performed in his major league debut. He had a little trouble early, but bounced back to pitch 6+ innings of solid ball. You can't ask for much more out of your 5th starter. He gave up 2 runs, both on solo shots, and struck out 4 hitters.

Key Plays

With a little trouble in the first, Matt Maloney buckled down. After a double by Alfonso Soriano and his steal of 2nd base, Chris Dickerson made an amazing catch in center field for tonight's Frischs Big Boy Big Play of the Game.
In the bottom of the inning, Dickerson produced on offense by singling in Jerry Hairston Jr., and a 2-run HR by Ramon Hernandez gave the Reds a 3-0 lead.
In the 4th, Bobby Scales homered off of Maloney to put the Cubs on the board.
In the top of the 7th, Maloney faced his last hitter when Geovany Soto hit a solo HR of his own. Daniel Ray Herrera came in for Maloney and got three quick outs to end the Cubs threat.
In the dreaded 8th, David Weathers gave up the tying run as Jake Fox hit a sacrifice fly to center. Dickerson made yet another amazing sliding catch, but by the time he got up and threw the ball in, Ryan Theriot had already scored to tie the game.
In the 11th inning, Jay Bruce scored the winning run as he was running on contact as pinch hitter Adam Rosales hit a dribbler down the 3rd base line. Seemingly, Bruce's size caused Mike Fontenot to make a bad throw, allowing Bruce to score the winning run.

Other Notes

Matt Maloney was the first Reds pitcher to get a base hit in his first major league AB since Scott Randall in 2003.
Jay Bruce needs to take the getaway day tomorrow off. He went 0-for-3 again, and his average is down to .212. His plate discipline has still been decent, but he can't get a base hit to drop to save his life. A day away would clear his head a bit and let him start fresh and rested on the upcoming road trip. We're gonna need him.
Furthermore, Jonny Gomes should start in RF tomorrow. He hasn't started since May 25, which was almost 2 weeks ago, and was 3-for-4 in that game.
Hairston had two hits in the leadoff spot, and scored a run.
Nick Masset continues to dominate out of the bullpen, as he pitched 2 perfect innings to get the win. His ERA is 0.86 right now, which is downright studly.
Dickerson has absolutely killed the Cubs in this series on defense in CF. He's got 4 diving catches and an assist in 2 games.
GABP sold out, for (if I'm recalling correctly) the 2nd time this season. Hopefully that number will continue to increase as the Reds stay in the hunt.

Phillies at Reds: May 19-21

Matt Swartz — Tue, 19 May 2009 21:09:53 -0000

More photos » by Evan Vucci - AP

Raul Ibanez and the Phillies offense see if they can fare as well in Cincnnati as they did in Washington. (AP Photo/Evan Vucci)

Browse more photos »

The Phillies (20-16) take on the Reds (20-17) in Cincinnati this week for a three game series. In this article, I'll break down the detials on the individual player, but due to Baseball Prospectus Idol demands (as well as working on finishing my PhD!), I do not have time to go into as much depth as I usually do in my series previews. I did almost all the number gathering for this series and the next, but I just didn't have time to make comments and highlight certain players like I have in my previous work. I have updated all the player's stats at least and you can see the hitter's splits, batted ball information, etc. as before.

MATCHUPS:
TUESDAY, 7:10-- Cole Hamels (L) vs Johnny Cueto (R)
WEDNESAY, 7:10-- Jamie Moyer (L) vs Aaron Harang (R)
THURSDAY, 12:35-- Joe Blanton (R) vs Micah Owings (R)

REDS

LINE UP

1) CF Willy Taveras (R): .293/.351/.376

projection average (proj): .270/.330/.340
projected BB/PA (bb): 6.5%
projected K/AB (k): 16.5%
career gb% (gb): 53%
career infield flies/flyball (iff): 12%
career infield hits/groundball (ifh): 12%
batting average on balls in play tendencies (babip): projected around .320-- does poorly on flyballs & linedrives due to weak power; very high on grounders and hits a lot of

them; .320 might be high be probably is realistic
swing/contact/zone facts (s/c/z): patient, but he gets thrown a lot of strikes; pretty good eye
righty/lefty (r/l): .675 vs .656 ops; 2.9 vs 2.2 k/bb
home/away (h/a): .686 vs .656 ops; 2.5 vs 2.8 k/bb
pull/opposite (p/o): slight pull hitter
anything else (other): none

2) 3B Jerry Hairston, Jr. (R): .247/.298/.433

proj: .265/.330/.400
bb: 8%
k: 16%
gb: 37%
iff: 16%
ifh: 8%
babip: projected slightly below average, but given lack of significant power, high popup rate, and mediocre groundball rate, that may be too high
s/c/z: patient, with pretty good eye, good contact skill, sees a lot of strikes
r/l: .697 vs .702 ops; 1.6 vs 1.5 k/bb
h/a: .715 vs .683 ops; 1.3 vs 1.7 k/bb
p/o: pull hitter
other: none

3) 1B Joey Votto (L): .366/.470/.589

proj: .285/.365/.490
bb: 10%
k: 22%
gb: 42%
iff: 4%
ifh: 5%
babip: does well on flyballs because he avoids popups, not particularly fast, spreads ball around well; projected .320-.330 which seems about right
s/c/z: good eye, not particularly patient, not quite average contact skill
r/l: .926 vs .849 ops; 1.4 vs 2.5 k/bb
h/a: .917 vs .884 ops; 1.7 vs 1.8 k/bb
p/o: spreads ball around very well
other: great against finesse pitchers

4) 2B Brandon Phillips (R): .262/.336/.454

proj: .270/.320/.440
bb: 6%
k: 17%
gb: 47%
iff: 11%
ifh: 5%
babip: projected slightly below average which makes sense given popout rate and mediocre power
s/c/z: free swinger, poor eye, somewhat poor contact skill
r/l: .687 vs .846 ops; 3.5 vs 1.9 k/bb
h/a: .766 vs .700 ops; 2.7 vs 3.1 k/bb
p/o: slight pull hitter
other: none

5) RF Jay Bruce (L): .231/.309/.507

proj: .275/.330/.500
bb: 7.5%
k: 26.5%
gb: 44%
iff: 17%
ifh: 6%
babip: projected very high despite high popup rate; good power and pretty fast, so maybe not projected all that much higher than it should (.325ish projection, should be .310

or so, i'd say)
s/c/z: free swinger, poor contact skill
r/l: .907 vs .555 ops; 2.8 vs 3.2 k/bb
h/a: .903 vs .676 ops; 2.1 vs 4.2 k/bb
p/o: slight pull hitter
other: none

6) C Ramon Hernandez (R): .283/.349/.354

proj: .260/.320/.415
bb: 8%
k: 16%
gb: 46%
iff: 13%
ifh: 4%
babip:
s/c/z: good eye, good contact, average patience, sees a lot of strikes
r/l: .735 vs .774 ops; 2.0 vs 1.3 k/bb
h/a: .767 vs .725 ops; 1.7 both ways
p/o: slight pull hitter
other: none

7) LF Laynce Nix (L): .294/.338/.603

proj: .250/.300/.350
bb: 6.5%
k: 26%
gb: 45%
iff: 11%
ifh: 7%
babip: projected about average which seems reasonable, not much power and pops out a lot, but he still does have decent speed
s/c/z: free swinger, not a great eye, poor contact skill
r/l: .719 vs .486 ops; 5.2 vs 10.0 k/bb
h/a: .703 vs .666 ops; 5.0 vs 6.6 k/bb
p/o: pull hitter
other: struggles against power pitchers

8) SS Alex Gonzalez (R): .171/.225/.280

proj: .255/.310/.410
bb: 6%
k: 19%
gb: 35%
iff: 18%
ifh: 6%
babip: projected only around .290 but given high popup rate, weak power, poor eye, it seems that may be overestimating him
s/c/z: poor eye, impatient, average contact, thrown a lot of strikes
r/l: .691 vs .690 ops; 4.0 vs 3.3 k/bb
h/a: .681 vs .701 ops; 3.8 vs 3.8 k/bb
p/o: pull hitter
other: none

BENCH

C Ryan Hanigan (R): .311/.360/.333

proj: .265/.340/.360
bb: 10%
k: 16%
gb: 49%
iff: 16%
ifh: 6%
babip: projected around average. high groundball rate, but high popup rate and weak power indicates this is probably way too high
s/c/z: good eye and contact, very patient
r/l: .801 vs .643 ops; 0.7 vs 1.2 k/bb
h/a: .819 vs .645 ops; 0.4 vs 1.4 k/bb
p/o: slight pull hitter
other: none

3B Adam Rosales (R): .271/.353/.407

proj: .250/.320/.430
bb: 7%
k: 21%
gb: 41%
iff: 19%
ifh: 14%
babip: high popup rate so may be overprojected
s/c/z: pretty good eye, patient, not great contact
r/l: .688 vs .842 ops in minors last year
h/a: not enough info
p/o: seems to spread ball around well
other: none

IF Paul Janish (R): .313/.389/.406

proj: .235/.300/.350
bb: 8%
k: 20%
gb: 34%
iff: 18%
ifh: 4%
babip: projected around .275-.280, but that seems even too high given popup rate and speed
s/c/z: okay eye but not patient, okay contact, thrown a lot of strikes
r/l: .520 vs .768 ops; 4.0 vs 2.0 k/bb
h/a: .588 vs .637 ops; 4.0 vs 2.0 k/bb
p/o: definite pull hitter
other: none

OF Chris Dickerson (L): .230/.356/.365

proj: .250/.330/.420
bb: 11%
k: 32%
gb: 42%
iff: 4%
ifh: 7%
babip: projected around .330ish which might be a bit high
s/c/z: averag eye, average patient, poor contact skill
r/l: .877 vs .838 ops; 2.3 vs 1.2 k/bb
h/a: .984 vs .789 ops; 1.7 vs 2.4 k/bb
p/o: pull hitter
other: none

OF Darnell McDonald (R): .212/.257/.273

proj: .260/.320/.410
bb: 7%
k: 22%
gb: 56%
iff: 20%
ifh: 3%
babip: projected slightly above average (.310ish) which seems possible given high groundball rate. infield flyrate is high in majors, but that's just 3 popups in 15 flyballs
s/c/z: not all that patient, and bad eye, very bad contact skill too
r/l: .286 vs .571 ops (29 & 47 PA); 4.0 vs 2.7 k/bb
h/a: not enough info
p/o: slight pull hitter
other: none

ROTATION

TUESDAY OPPONENT: Johnny Cueto (R): 1.93 ERA, 2.5 BB/9, 6.9 K/9, 0.8 HR/9, 3.69 FIP, 42% GB

proj avg: 4.50 ERA, 3.2 BB/9, 8.1 HR/9, 1.3 HR/9
gb: 39%
pitches: 61% fb, 32% sl, 7% ch, 0.1% cb
r/l: .768 vs .759 ops; 3.6 vs 1.8 k/bb
h/a: .776 vs .752 ops; 2.7 vs 2.1 k/bb

Cueto: has not played any Phillies

WEDNESDAY OPPONENT: Aaron Harang (R): 3.44 ERA, 2.1 BB/9, 7.4 K/9, 0.9 HR/9, 3.62 FIP, 37% GB

proj avg: 4.20 ERA, 2.4 BB/9, 7.8 K/9, 1.2 HR/9
gb: 39%
pitches: 71% fb, 23% sl, 3% ch, 3% cb
r/l: .784 vs .735 ops; 3.6 vs 2.6 k/bb
h/a: .767 vs .757 ops; 2.9 vs 3.1 k/bb

Harang vs Phillies:

Rollins: 8/24, 1 2B, 0 BB, 3 K
Feliz: 2/21, 1 HR, 2 BB, 4 K
Utley: 7/14, 3 2B, 1 HR, 2 BB, 1 K
Howard: 2/11, 2 HR, 2 BB, 3 K
Victorino: 1/10, 1 3B, 1 BB, 1 K
Dobbs: 3/6, 1 2B, 0 BB, 3 K
Ruiz: 1/5, 1 BB (IBB), 1 K
Ibanez: 0/3, 2 BB (1 IBB), 2 K
Stairs: 0/4, 1 BB (IBB), 1 K
Cairo: 0/1, 1 BB, 0 K, 1 Sac
Coste: 0/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Werth: 0/3, 0 BB, 1 K
Bruntlett: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K

THURSDAY OPPONENT: Micah Owings (R): 3.95 ERA, 3.7 BB/9, 5.3 K/9, 1.1 HR/9, 5.03 FIP, 36% GB

proj avg: 4.60 ERA, 3.2 BB/9, 7.1 HR/9, 1.1 HR/9
gb: 36%
pitches: 64% fb, 18% sl, 15% ch, 2% ct, 0.2% cb
r/l: .697 vs .828 ops; 2.7 vs 1.6 k/bb
h/a: .768 vs .760 ops; 2.3 vs 1.8 k/bb

Owings vs Phillies:

Victorino: 1/9, 1 BB, 2 K
Feliz: 3/9, 1 2B, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K
Utley: 3/8, 1 HR, 1 BB, 0 K
Ruiz: 3/7, 1 BB (IBB), 0 K
Howard: 1/7, 0 BB, 4 K
Rollins: 1/7, 1 2B, 0 BB, 1 K
Dobbs: 1/5, 1 HR, 1 BB, 0 K
Bruntlett: 0/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Werth: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K

NOT FACING US: Edinson Volquez (R): 4.25 ERA, 5.7 BB/9, 8.3 K/9, 5.19 FIP, 46% GB

proj avg: 3.90 ERA, 4.2 BB/9, 8.9 K/9, 0.9 HR/9
gb: 45%
pitches: 55% fb, 32% ch, 9% cb, 4% sl
r/l: .767 vs .716 ops; 1.7 vs 2.0 k/bb
h/a: .752 vs .731 ops; 1.7 vs 2.0 k/bb

Volquez vs Phillies:

Ibanez: 3/9, 1 BB, 2 K
Rollins: 1/7, 0 BB, 2 K
Howard: 1/5, 1 BB, 3 K
Utley: 1/5, 0 BB, 2 K, 1 HBP
Victorino: 0/5, 1 BB, 3 K
Feliz: 0/5, 0 BB, 2 K
Stairs: 1/2, 1 2B, 3 BB, 0 K
Coste: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K, 1 HBP
Ruiz: 1/2, 1 2B, 0 BB, 1 K

NOT FACING US: Bronson Arroyo (R): 6.56 ERA, 3.6 BB/9, 5.1 K/9, 2.1 HR/9, 6.45 FIP, 42% GB

proj avg: 4.40 ERA, 2.9 BB/9, 7.0 K/9, 1.2 HR/9
gb: 39%
pitches: 47% fb, 20% sl, 19% cb, 12% ch, 3% ct
r/l: .709 vs .828 ops; 3.1 vs 1.5 k/bb
h/a: .767 vs .767 ops; 2.4 vs 2.1 k/bb

Arroyo vs Phillies:

Feliz: 4/11, 1 2B, 1 HR, 3 BB, 3 K
Rollins: 4/12, 1 2B, 1 HR, 1 BB, 0 K
Utley: 4/9, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K
Cairo: 2/6, 0 BB, 2 K, 1 HBP
Howard: 2/6, 2 2B, 0 BB, 4 K
Stairs: 2/4, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K, 2 SF
Victorino: 2/6, 0 BB, 1 K
Bruntlett: 1/3, 1 2B, 0 BB, 1 K
Dobbs: 1/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Ibanez: 1/3, 0 BB, 1 K
Ruiz: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K, 1 HBP
Coste: 1/2, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K

BULLPEN

CL Francisco Cordero (R): 2.40 ERA, 4.2 BB/9, 9.6 K/9, 0.0 HR/9, 2.49 FIP, 33% GB

proj avg: 3.60 ERA, 3.9 BB/9, 10.0 K/9, 0.8 HR/9
gb: 42%
pitches: 52% fb, 37% sl, 2% ch, 0.2% sf
r/l: .656 vs .695 ops; 3.5 vs 1.6 k/bb
h/a: .668 vs .685 ops; 2.3 vs 2.2 k/bb

Cordero vs Phillies:

Ibanez: 3/10, 0 BB, 1 K, 1 SF
Dobbs: 0/7, 0 BB, 3 K
Feliz: 1/6, 0 BB, 1 K
Rollins: 0/4, 1 BB, 2 K
Cairo: 0/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Coste: 0/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Stairs: 0/1, 2 BB, 0 K
Bruntlett: 0/2, 0 BB, 2 K
Howard: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K, 1 HBP
Ruiz: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Utley: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K
Werth: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K

David Weathers (R): 2.70 ERA, 5.4 BB/9, 6.1 K/9, 0.7 HR/9, 4.65 FIP, 40% GB

proj avg: 4.20 ERA, 3.8 BB/9, 6.1 K/9, 0.9 HR/9
gb: 46%
pitches: 59% fb, 33% sl, 8% ch
r/l: .737 vs .791 ops; 2.1 vs 1.2 k/bb
h/a: .780 vs .739 ops; 1.5 vs 1.8 k/bb

Weathers vs Phillies:

Rollins: 5/10, 2 2B, 4 BB, 1 K
Feliz: 2/11, 1 2B, 0 BB, 2 K, 1 Sac
Utley: 1/5, 1 HR, 2 BB, 1 K
Stairs: 1/5, 0 BB, 2 K
Cairo: 0/4, 0 BB, 1 K
Howard: 0/2, 2 BB (1 IBB), 1 K
Ruiz: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K, 1 Sac
Coste: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Dobbs: 2/2, 1 3B, 0 BB, 0 K
Victorino: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Bruntlett: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Werth: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K

Jared Burton (R): 4.67 ERA, 5.2 BB/9, 6.8 K/9, 0.5 HR/9, 4.38 FIP, 41% GB

proj avg: 4.10 ERA, 4.0 BB/9, 7.9 K/9, 0.9 HR/9
gb: 46%
pitches: 52% ct, 25% fb, 17% sl, 7% ch
r/l: .654 vs .675 ops; 2.9 vs 1.2 k/bb
h/a: .662 vs .663 ops; 1.8 vs 2.1 k/bb

Burton vs Phillies:

Feliz: 0/2, 0 BB, 1 K
Ruiz: 0/2, 0 BB, 2 K
Cairo: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Howard: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K
Rollins: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Stairs: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Utley: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Victorino: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K

Arthur Rhodes (L): 0.75 ERA, 3.8 BB/9, 6.8 K/9, 0.0 HR/9, 2.97 FIP, 36% GB

proj avg: 3.70 ERA, 4.1 BB/9, 8.8 K/9, 0.5 HR/9
gb: 41%
pitches: 69% fb, 28% sl, 3% ch
r/l: .733 vs .611 ops; 2.0 vs 2.9 k/bb
h/a: .705 vs .684 ops; 2.3 vs 2.1 k/bb

Rhodes vs Phillies:

Stairs: 1/14, 1 BB, 3 K
Ibanez: 2/7, 3 BB, 2 K
Cairo: 0/3, 2 BB, 1 K
Utley: 0/4, 0 BB, 1 K
Dobbs: 0/2, 0 BB, 2 K
Feliz: 1/2, 0 BB, 1 K
Howard: 0/2, 0 BB, 1 K
Victorino: 1/1, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Werth: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K

Mike Lincoln (R): 9.64 ERA, 7.1 BB/9, 3.2 K/9, 2.1 HR/9, 8.29 FIP, 45 % GB

proj avg: 4.20 ERA, 3.2 BB/9, 7.1 K/9, 1.2 HR/9
gb: 51%
pitches: 58% fb, 30% cb, 5% sl, 5% ct, 3% ch
r/l: .779 vs .861 ops; 1.7 vs 1.6 k/bb
h/a: .783 vs .850 ops; 1.6 vs 1.8 k/bb

Lincoln vs Phillies:

Cairo: 2/8, 1 2B, 0 BB, 2 K
Stairs: 3/7, 1 2B, 0 BB, 1 K
Rollins: 0/3, 0 BB, 2 K, 1 Sac
Feliz: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Ruiz: 0/2, 0 BB, 1 K
Dobbs: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Howard: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Utley: 1/1, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Victorino: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K

Danny Herrera (L): 1.80 ERA, 4.2 BB/9, 8.4 K/9, 0.0 HR/9, 2.75 FIP, 54% GB

proj avg: 4.30 ERA, 3.1 BB/9, 6.8 K/9, 1.1 HR/9
gb: 60%
pitches: 38% fb, 25% ch, 21% sl, 13% cb, 2% ct
r/l: 1.105 vs .326 ops; 1.6 vs 2.7 k/bb
h/a: .741 vs .793 ops; 2.4 vs 1.4 k/bb

Herrera vs Phillies:

Howard: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K
Utley: 1 BB (IBB)
Victorino: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K

Ramon Ramirez (R): 0.86 ERA, 2.6 BB/9, 4.7 K/9, 0.4 HR/9, 3.79 FIP, 41% GB

proj avg: 3.70 ERA, 3.7 BB/9, 8.0 K/9, 0.7 HR/9
gb: 42%
pitches: 54% fb, 20% sl, 26% ch, 0.3% sf
r/l: .566 vs .723 ops; 2.8 vs 1.7 k/bb
h/a: .678 vs .587 ops; 2.3 vs 2.2 k/bb

Ramirez vs Phillies:

Feliz: 2/7, 1 2B, 0 BB, 2 K
Howard: 0/2, 0 BB, 1 K
Rollins: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Utley: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Ibanez: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K

DISABLED LIST: Nick Masset (R)

proj avg: 4.70 ERA, 3.7 BB/9, 6.5 K/9, 1.0 HR/9
gb: 48%
pitches: 69% fb, 15% sl, 13% cb, 3% ch, 1% ct
r/l: .764 vs .831 ops; 1.4 vs 1.1 k/bb
h/a: .937 vs .637 ops; 1.3 vs 1.2 k/bb

Masset vs Phillies:

Cairo: 1/1, 1 BB, 0 K
Howard: 0/1, 1 BB (IBB), 0 K
Ibanez: 0/1, 1 BB, 0 K
Dobbs: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
ROllins: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Utley: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Victorino: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K

PHILLIES

LINE UP

1) SS Jimmy Rollins (S): .222/.268/.320

projection average (proj): .285/.350/.460
projected BB/PA (bb): 8%
projected K/AB (k): 11%
career gb% (gb): 42%
career infield flies/flyball (iff): 10%
career infield hits/groundball (ifh): 5%
batting average on balls in play tendencies (babip): about average overall, though a little bit high popup rate so slightly below average. my system has him at about .308.
swing/contact/zone facts (s/c/z): good eye, pretty selective, but very high contact rate so low walk rate
righty/lefty (r/l): 1.7 vs 1.3 k/bb, mostly because of higher k-rate as lhb. otherwise similar on contact
home/away (h/a): 1.5 vs 1.7 k/bb; .805 vs .739 ops
pull/opposite (p/o): definite pull hitter
anything else (other): stole 47 bases in 50 attempts last year.

2) CF Shane Victorino (S): .256/.304/.417

proj: .285/.345/.430
bb: 7.5%
k: 13%
gb: 46%
iff: 15%
ifh: 8%
babip: slightly above average due to high babip on groundballs-- partly because infield plays in for him and he spreads the ball around well; not that high due to high infield fly rate. my system sees him at .303.
s/c/z: pretety bad eye but high contact rate
r/l: much more power righthanded (1.6% to 3.8% HR rate), but much better k/bb as lefty: 1.65 vs 1.88; higher babip lefty also (.316 vs .286)
h/a: far fewer walks on road but nearly exactly the same strikeout rate, same power, same babip
p/o: pull hitter both ways
other: stole 36 of 47 bases last year

3) 2B Chase Utley (L): .291/.443/.590

proj: .295/.380/.525
bb: 9.5%
k: 18%
gb: 37%
iff: 10%
ifh: 6%
babip: distinctly above average historically and for projections too; seemingly strong power leads to high line drive babip rate and reasonably high groundball babip especially for pull hitting lefty; high on flyballs despite high infield fly rate since he hits deep flyballs. my system has him at about .308, but he beats projection systems consistently.
s/c/z: pretty good eye, somewhat selective, somewhat high contact rate
r/l: not significant-- only 1.7 vs 2.0 k/bb; .919 vs .865 ops
h/a: similar k/bb home & away; better hr at home-- probably park factors; higher babip at home too
p/o: pull hitter
other: much better against power pitchers relative to other hitters

4) 1B Ryan Howard (L): .266/.346/.517

proj: .275/.375/580
bb: 14%
k: 33%
gb: 40%
iff: 2%
ifh: 4%
babip: low on groundballs over time as he pulls the vast majority of them; very very high on flyballs because he almost never pops out in the infield at all and many of his flyballs are very deep. also since so few of his flyballs stay in the park (only 2/3 or so), a higher percentage of his balls in play are line drives-- which he does well on like many power hitters-- his low contact rate means he sometimes make poor contact though. probably above average overall
s/c/z: swings a lot especially for someone who doesn't see many strikes. however, he is pretty good at distinguishing balls from strikes despite the consensus on him. he makes terrible contact overall though. my system sees him at .310.
r/l: 1.064 vs .786 ops: say it with me "that means he's good against righties, not bad against lefties!" in fact, he's the best hitter against righties in baseball right now probably. his k/bb vs lhp is 3.7 vs 1.6 vs rhp. he has a lot of power against lefties however, but a lower babip. i don't have split data on pull% vs lhp/rhp but observationally i'm pretty sure that's the difference in his babip: .338 vs .309.
h/a: much higher babip on road. very similar hr numbers. 2.0 vs 3.2 k/bb.
p/o: pull hitter, especially on groundballs-- hits more homeruns the opposite way though
other: struggles mightily against power pitchers and groundball pitchers, dominate flyball pitchers (since he almost never pops out, and has 10.3% hr rate) and smashes finesse pitchers (11.8% hr rate); he also does much better on babip with runners on base as defenders can't shift against him-- especially with runners in scoring position

5) RF Jayson Werth (R): .294/.396/.540

proj: .270/.360/.460
bb: 12.5%
k: 29%
gb: 38%
iff: 8%
ifh: 8%
babip: high on groundballs due to high infield hit rate, high on line drives due to power, and hits pretty deep flyballs too; has been historically probably higher than it should be since he's faced more lhp than normal rhb do; overall still seems to be very above average. my system has him at .329.
s/c/z: very selective and pretty good eye; somewhat low contact rate
r/l: .762 vs .919 ops; 2.4 vs 2.0 k/bb; hr rate of 6.7% vs 2.9%
h/a: not much of a split at all
p/o: spreads ball around well for power hitter, but still a pull hitter
other: stole 20 bases in 21 attempts last year

6) LF Raul Ibanez (L): .357/.425/.714

proj: .285/.350/.480
bb: 9%
k: 17%
gb: 42%
iff: 11%
ifh: 5%
babip: above average, probably because he spreads the ball around pretty well for a power hitter; much better babip with men on-- probably hooks ball in hole well or maybe he was shifted against more so beforehand. my system sees him right at .300.
s/c/z: definitely a good eye though it's getting worse, slightly above average contact
r/l: .850 vs .733; 1.5 vs 2.8 k/bb
h/a: better k/bb (1.6 vs 1.9) but worse power probably park factors, and probably likely to be better at home
p/o: slight pull hitter but not much for a power hitter
other: none

7) 3B Pedro Feliz (R): .308/.380/.425

proj: .250/.300/.420
bb: 6%
k: 15.5%
gb: 44%
iff: 15%
ifh: 5%
babip: very low-- pops up a lot, hits groundballs predictably to left side and is slow so they can play shaded over and deep; not all that much power so not terrific on line drives either, makes a lot of weak contact as he isn't good at making contact so he chops a lot of balls. my system sees him at .271.
s/c/z: high swing rate and not terribly good at distinguishing balls from strikes. swung significantly less in 2008, but it was as much of a decrease in balls as strikes, makes average contact
r/l: 3.3 vs 2.3 k/bb; .708 vs .755 ops, more babip and a little more power agaisnt lefties
h/a: much higher k rate on road, similar bb rate; more power on road, higher babip at home. likely not much difference (.725 vs .716 overall ops)
p/o: definite pull hitter
other: defensive numbers dipped last year, had offseason surgery for back, perhaps these are related

8) Carlos Ruiz (R): .255/.397/.340

proj: .255/.335/.390
bb: 10%
k: 14%
gb: 50% (but rose in 2008 to 54% from 46%)
iff: 9.5%
ifh: 4%
babip: was extraordinarily low in 2008, but that seems to be rather flukey. his high groundball rate and solid contact rate and pitch selection indicate he should be a good babip guy, but he does very poorly on groundball as he chops the ball a lot. my system sees him at .288.
s/c/z: very good eye and excellent contact skill, extremely patient
r/l: bizarre reverse split despite 0.5 k/bb vs lhp and 1.2 vs rhp; impossibly low .204 babip against lhp, probably flukey and probably much better vs lhp in reality
h/a: similar k/bb, worse babip but higher power at home (park factors)
p/o: slight pull hitter
other: better against power pitchers

BENCH

C Chris Coste (R): .236/.333/.400

proj: .265/.315/.405
bb: 5.5%
k: 17.5%
gb: 40%
iff: 10%
ifh: 6%
babip: slightly below average, seemingly due to poor eye and swinging and hitting bad pitches. my system sees him at .294.
s/c/z: high swing rate, pretty poor eye, average contact
r/l: .747 vs .855; same k/bb rate, much better babip against lhp, similar power but slightly more vs lhp
h/a: .886 vs .679; 5.4% vs 1.5% hr rate
p/o: pull hitter
other: struggles with power pitchers somewhat

IF/OF Eric Bruntlett (R): .138/.206/.276

proj: .240/.325/.335
bb: 10%
k: 18%
gb: 41%
iff: 14%
ifh: 5%
babip: high popup rate leads to low babip, but not that low; also doesn't do all that well on line drives due to lack of power
s/c/z: somewhat above average eye and doesn't swing much; makes very good contact, sees a lot of strikes
r/l: .592 vs .764 ops; 2.5 vs 1.2 k/bb; 5.7% vs 8.8% xbh/ab-- he's actually average if not above average against lhp; he just is terrible against rhb. he should be used as a counterswitch to loogy use against lefty pinch hitters
h/a: more power at home and more walks at home; similar strikeout rate and babip
p/o: opposite field hitter
other: none

IF Greg Dobbs (L): .125/.200/.125

proj: .285/.335/.445
bb: 7%
k: 17%
gb: 36%
iff: 13.5%
ifh: 3%
babip: has been high but probably should not be projected as high-- success derives from impossibly high line drive babip which doesn't typically happen for non-extreme power hitters. given his popup rate, he probably isn't a .320 babip guy and there isn't a .285 hitter
s/c/z: poor eye but very high swing rate; average contact rate
r/l: .761 vs .579 ops despite impossible .481 babip against lhp. in reality, he strikes out in 48% of at-bats against lhp. he should never see them. absolutely no power against lefties also.
h/a: virtually no split at all
p/o: pull hitter
other: much better against finesse pitchers

OF Matt Stairs (L): .318/.500/.636

proj: .255/.340/.440
bb: 11%
k: 22%
gb: 42%
iff: 11.5%
ifh: 5%
babip: average all around. my system sees him at .295.
s/c/z: very good eye and slightly below average contact
r/l: .862 vs .748; much more power against rhp; 1.4 vs 2.1 k/bb
h/a: not much of a split at all
p/o: slight pull hitter but not much for a power hitter
other: use stairs in case of emergency

ROTATION

TUESDAY STARTER: Cole Hamels (L): 5.04 ERA, 2.1 BB/9, 9.2 K/9, 1.8 HR/9, 4.42 FIP, 36% GB

proj avg: 3.45 ERA, 2.3 BB/9, 8.4 K/9, 1.1 HR/9
gb: 40%
pitches: 55% fb, 32% ch, 14% cb
r/l: .680 vs .748, but same 3.6 k/bb both ways; slightly more power vs lhb-- this is probably selection bias as managers withhold all but the best lefties against him (explaining 20% of hitters faced are lefties only)
h/a: 3.85 vs 3.4 k/bb; .676 vs .709 ops-- less of a difference due to higher HR rate at home
other: much higher k-rate at night: 25% vs 20%, which is statistically significant. ERA difference (4.71 vs 3.01 exaggerated by babip difference), as HR rate and XBH rate very similar. most likely he strikes out more at night.

Hamels vs Reds:

Phillips: 1/12, 1 BB, 6 K
Bruce: 0/4, 0 BB, 0 K
Gonzalez: 0/4, 0 BB, 2 K
Hairston: 1/4, 1 2B, 0 BB, 1 K
Taveras: 1/4, 0 BB, 1 K, 1 HBP
Votto: 0/3, 1 BB, 1 K
Hernandez: 1/2, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K, 1 HBP

WEDNESDAY STARTER: Jamie Moyer (L): 8.15 ERA, 3.3 BB/9, 4.8 K/9, 2.8 HR/9, 7.64 FIP, 38% GB

proj avg: 4.80 ERA, 2.8 BB/9, 5.5 K/9, 1.2 HR/9
gb: 39%
pitches: 41% fb, 30% ct, 24% ch, 6% cb
r/l: virtually no split but that seems to be selection as he sees 24% lefties only compared with 32% league average for lhp
h/a: 2.3 vs 1.9 k/bb; not much difference on contact; slightly better babip at home but not more so than the average starter gets

Moyer vs Reds:

Hernandez: 5/37, 1 2B, 1 HR, 4 BB, 6 K, 1 SF
Hairston: 3/17, 1 2B, 0 BB, 3 K
Nix: 1/11, 0 BB, 4 K
Gonzalez: 4/6, 2 2B, 1 HR, 1 BB, 1 K
Taveras: 2/5, 0 BB, 1 K
Philips: 1/3, 0 BB, 1 K

THURSDAY STARTER: Joe Blanton (R): 6.86 ERA, 3.7 BB/9, 7.6 K/9, 1.8 HR/9, 5.56 FIP, 37% GB

proj avg: 4.25 ERA, 2.5 BB/9, 5.8 K/9, 0.9 HR/9
gb: 45%
pitches: 56% fb, 16% ch, 15% sl, 12% cb
r/l: 2.3 vs 1.8 k/bb; .750 vs .719 ops
h/a: 2.2 vs 2.0 k/bb; .698 vs .776 ops; much worse babip away (.313 vs .282), more power surrendered on road
other: extraordinarily good against leadoff hitters, especially the first hitter of games

Blanton vs Reds:

Gonzalez: 3/6, 1 HR, 0 BB, 1 K
Hernandez: 3/6, 0 BB, 1 K
Phillips: 0/3, 0 BB, 2 K

NOT STARTING THIS SERIES: Brett Myers (R): 4.50 ERA, 3.4 BB/9, 6.8 K/9, 2.2 HR/9, 6.20 FIP, 46% GB

proj avg: 4.15 ERA, 3.1 BB/9, 8.0 K/9, 1.3 HR/9
gb: 47%
pitches: 48% fb, 23% cb, 18% sl, 9% ch, 1% ct, 0.2% sf
r/l: .788 vs .747 ops despite 3.1 vs 1.95 k/bb; main issue is much higher HR rate vs rhb, slightly higher babip vs them as well; does not seem to be selection bias
h/a: .738 vs .800 ops; 2.7 vs 2.15 k/bb; slightly higher HR rate at home, but that is probably park factors as he surrenders far more doubles on road
other: HR rate is bizarre-- very few pitchers have the HR/Flyball rate he does. My personal suspicion is that statistics that don't exhibit much persistence despite what common sense suggests only do not exhibit persistence specifically because players make adjustments. If you throw fastball after fastball on the outside corner on every 1-2 count, the hitters will respond by hitting singles to the opposite field over and over again and your BABIP will go up. However, pitchers learn to mix up their pitches and BABIP ends up lacking persistence due to the constant game theoretical reaction that pitchers and hitters take. For Myers, his bizarre refusal to use his curveball early in the game leaves him especially vulernable to RHB who know it isn't coming. A little game theoretical mixed strategy would probably allow him to finally live up to his peripherals which suggest a low HR rate and borderline ace stuff.

Myers vs Reds:

Gonzalez: 7/23, 2 2B, 3 BB, 3 K
Phillips: 2/12, 1 2B, 1 BB, 5 K
Taveras: 3/12, 1 2B, 0 BB, 2 K
Hairston: 0/6, 1 BB, 2 K
Hernandez: 2/5,1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K, 1 HBP
Votto: 1/5, 1 2B, 1 BB, 2 K
Volquez: 0/3, 0 BB, 2 K, 1 Sac
Bruce: 0/3, 0 BB, 1 K

NOT STARTING THIS SERIES: J.A. Happ (L): 2.49 ERA, 3.7 BB/9, 7.1 K/9, 0.4 HR/9, 2.20 FIP, 34% GB

proj avg: 4.40 ERA, 3.8 BB/9, 7.7 K/9, 1.2 HR/9
gb: 29% in majors thus far; 42% in AAA in 2008
pitches: 64% fb, 18% ch, 14% sl, 2% ct, 2% cb
r/l: 1.7 vs 3.0 k/bb in majors thus far; 2.7 vs 3.5 k/bb in AAA in 2008
h/a: not enough info

Happ: has not faced any Reds

BULLPEN

CL Brad Lidge (R): 8.31 ERA, 5.2 BB/9, 9.4 K/9, 2.6 HR/9, 6.80 FIP, 32% GB

proj avg: 3.50 ERA, 4.1 BB?9, 11.0 K/9, 0.8 HR/9
gb: 41% (though this went up to 46% with increased slider use in 2008)
pitches: 56% sl, 43% fb, 0.4% ch in 2008 (historically 54% fb, 42% sl)
r/l: 3.6 vs 2.8 k/bb; .601 vs .686 ops (tough to tell if that tendency became more or less extreme in 2008 due to limited sample size)
h/a: 3.6 vs 2.9 k/bb; .666 vs .614 ops though due to higher babip away
other: HR/Flyball plummeted in 2008-- probably unsustainably low and his ERA should rise; still rumors of him tipping pitches explain the HR/Flyball spike in 2006 & 2007

Lidge vs Reds:

Gonzalez: 0/8, 0 BB, 4 K
Phillips: 0/7, 1 BB, 2 K
Taveras: 1/2, 1 BB, 0 K
Votto: 1/3, 0 BB, 1 K
Nix: 1/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Arroyo: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K
Bruce: 0/1, 1 BB, 0 K
Hairston: 0/1, 1 BB, 0 K

Ryan Madson (R): 3.57 ERA, 3.1 BB/9, 9.2 K/9, 0.0 HR/9, 2.20 FIP, 35% GB

proj avg: 3.80 ERA, 2.9 BB/9, 7.2 K/9, 0.8 HR/9
gb: 48%
pitches: 58% fb, 24% ch, 15% ct, 4% cb
r/l: 3.65 vs 1.8 k/bb; .714 vs .786 ops
h/a: no major split at all

Madson vs Reds:

Gonzalez: 2/8, 1 HR, 1 BB, 1 K
Phillips: 2/5, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K, 1 SF
Taveras: 2/5, 1 2B, 1 BB, 0 K
Hernandez: 2/3, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Hairston: 1/2, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Nix: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Votto: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K

Scott Eyre (L): 4.00 ERA, 7.0 BB/9, 6.0 K/9, 2.0 HR/9, 7.44 FIP, 39% GB

proj avg: 4.20 ERA, 4.1 BB/9, 8.8 K/9, 0.9 HR/9
gb: 41%
pitches: 59% fb, 35% sl, 6% ch, 0.2% cb
r/l: 1.5 vs 1.9 k/bb; .815 vs .720 ops
h/a: not much of a split

Eyre vs Reds:

Phillips: 2/5, 1 BB, 1 K
Hernandez: 1/4, 1 HR, 0 BB, 1 K
Taveras: 1/4, 0 BB, 1 K
Gonzalez: 0/2, 0 BB, 1 K
Hairston: 0/2, 0 BB, 2 K
Votto: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K

Jack Taschner (L): 3.86 ERA, 6.8 BB/9, 4.8 K/9, 1.0 HR/9, 5.95 FIP, 35% GB

proj avg: 4.50 ERA, 4.1 BB/9, 8.0 K/9, 1.0 HR/9
gb: 35%
pitches: 57% fb, 30% sl, 13% ch
r/l: 1.45 vs 2.2 k/bb; .754 vs .747-- large selection bias where he faces only very good lefties and not very good righties
h/a: .698 vs .797 ops; 2.1 vs 1.5 k/bb

Taschner vs Reds:

Votto: 4/4, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Hernandez: 1/1, 1 BB, 0 K
Bruce: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Dickerson: 1 BB
Phillips: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K
Taveras: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K

Chad Durbin (R): 4.03 ERA, 4.8 BB/9, 8.1 K/9, 1.2 HR/9, 5.33 FIP, 33% GB

proj avg: 4.10 ERA, 3.5 BB/9, 6.5 K/9, 1.0 HR/9
gb: 41%
pitches: 47% fb, 38% sl, 8% ch, 7% cb, 1% ct
r/l: virtually no split
h/a: somewhat of a reverse split but probably just noise

Durbin vs Reds:

Hernandez: 2/12, 1 2B, 1 HR, 2 BB, 0 K, 1 SF
Hairston: 1/6, 1 2B, 0 BB, 2 K
McDonald: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K
Phillips: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Votto: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K

Clay Condrey (R): 2.61 ERA, 2.6 B/9, 7.0 K/9, 1.3 HR/9, 4.43 FIP, 46% GB

proj avg: 4.50 ERA, 2.8 BB/9, 4.9 K/9, 0.8 HR/9
gb: 50%
pitches: 59% fb, 17% ct, 15% sl, 9% ch
r/l: 2.1 vs 1.3 k/bb; .761 vs .842 ops
h/a: .703 vs .898 ops; 2.2 vs 1.3 k/bb

Condrey vs Reds:

Gonzalez: 0/3, 2 BB (IBB), 1 K
Taveras: 0/1, 1 BB, 0 K
Hernandez: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Phillips: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K

Chan Ho Park (R): 7.08 ERA, 4.5 BB/9, 5.5 K/9, 1.3 HR/9, 5.64 FIP, 34% GB

proj avg: 4.50 ERA, 3.5 BB/9, 7.3 K/9, 1.2 HR/9
gb: 45%
pitches: 51% FB, 29% SL, 12% cb, 5% ch, 4% ct
r/l: .666 vs .820 ops; 2.6 vs 1.3 k/bb; .280 vs .301 babip; 2.6% vs 3.6% HR rate-- much better against righties
h/a: 2.0 vs 1.7 k/bb; .708 vs .780 ops

Park vs Reds:

Taveras: 3/15, 1 BB, 1 K
Gonzalez: 2/12, 2 BB, 6 K
Hernandez: 4/7, 1 2B, 3 BB, 1 K, 1 HBP
Hairston: 3/8, 1 2B, 1 3B, 0 BB, 0 K
Phillips: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Votto: 1/1, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K

Sergio Escalona (L): (1 inning with a hit and a strikeout)

proj avg: unprojected
gb: around 50% in minors
pitches: ?
r/l: some of a LOOGY type split in the minors but not strong
h/a: not enough info

Escalona: has not faced any Reds

SUSPENDED: J.C. Romero (L)

proj avg: 4.00 ERA, 5.5 BB?9, 7.5 K/9, 0.7 HR/9
gb: 55%
pitches: 58% fb, 25% sl, 17% ch, 0.1% cb
r/l: 1.2 vs 2.2 k/bb; .814 vs. 591 ops
h/a: 1.6 vs 1.3 k/bb; .697 vs .768 ops

Romero vs Reds:

Hernandez: 1/8, 1 2B, 0 BB, 1 K
Hairston: 2/6, 1 BB, 0 K
Nix: 0/3, 1 BB, 2 K
Votto: 1/2, 1 2B, 0 BB, 1 K
Bruce: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Phillips: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K

Farmers Only: Futures Games preview

BK — Fri, 03 Apr 2009 19:33:49 -0000

With the Reds Futures Games happening in Zebulon tonight and Dayton tomorrow, we at Red Reporter decided to take a look at the roster for the futures team to kick off the Farmers Only reports for this season. For those of you not familiar with our Farmers Only feature, it's basically a nightly recap of the minor league action by the Reds farm system (hence, the name "Farmers Only"). Those of you in the Cincinnati area are probably familiar with the origin of the name, but for those who aren't, here's a local commercial that plays pretty frequently during Reds broadcasts:

So, yeah. Now that that's out of the way, let's run down the roster, along with brief introductions, John Sickels' letter grade (available in his excellent Baseball Prospect Book), and projected level to start the season:

Yonder Alonso, 1B - Top prospect in the system, being the 7th overall pick in 2008. Should be on the fast track to the majors, and has the best plate discipline in the system. Sickels grade: B+ Projected level: AA (Carolina)
Dallas Buck, RHP - Buck came over from Arizona as the main prospect in the Adam Dunn deal, but has battled injury problems (Tommy John surgery in 2007). He had a solid season last year coming off his surgery in South Bend (A) and Sarasota (A+), and is expected to be even better this year. Sickels grade: C+ Projected level: AA (Carolina)

Zach Cozart, SS - Zach is known as one of the few defensive wizards in the system, which is a breath of fresh air in a system that has recently drafted a lot of shortstops and converted them to corner infielders and outfielders. He's not known as a great offensive force, but had a solid year in Dayton last year. Sickels grade: C Projected level: A+ (Sarasota)
Misael DeJesus, RHP - DeJesus had a solid year last year, except for one dreadful spot start in Chattanooga. In Sarasota, he had 110 Ks in 99 innings, but he'll probably come out of the bullpen this season. Sickels grade: NR Projected level: AA (Carolina)
Chris Denove, C - Denove's name may be familiar from Spring Training this year. He didn't do much there, going 1 for 6 with a double. He's a former 32nd round pick who was medoicre at the plate last season. Sickels grade: NR Projected level: AA (Carolina)
Danny Dorn, OF - Another 32nd round pick, but had a much better season at the plate. Dorn's name is becoming one of the most talked about sleepers in the Reds system. He's not known as a defensive whiz, but his bat could be a force to be reckoned with if he can keep up his current level of production. Oh yeah, and he has his own blog, which is pretty interesting. Sickels grade: C+ Projected level: AAA (Louisville)
Carlos Fisher, RHP - Carlos pitched pretty well in his 5 innings of spring training ball this year, giving up 2 runs and striking out 7. Also, he's a sinkerballer, which could come in handy in GABP someday. Sickels grade: C Projected level: AAA (Louisville)
Juan Francisco, 3B - El Nino Destructor! Only 21, he feasted on Florida State League pitching last year, hitting 23 bombs. Look for him to keep that up in AA this year, and could be future at 3B if he keeps hitting. He's also known for dominating the Dominican Winter League and eating children. Sickels grade: C+ Projected level: AA (Carolina)
Todd Frazier, SS/IF/OF - Voted the Red Reporter #3 prospect, he already has the bat to hit in the big leagues. However, his range at SS leaves something to be desired, and a switch to 3B or OF seems likely. Sickels grade: B Projected level: AA (Carolina)
Ramon Geronimo, RHP - An under-the-radar guy to be sure, in his two minor league seasons has posted an ERA of 2.19 in A+ and AA. It's never a bad thing to have a surplus of solid bullpen arms. Sickels grade: C Projected level: AA (Carolina)
Aguido Gonzalez, LHP - In his first year in the minors last year, Aguido went 4-0 with an 0.98 ERA between 3 levels. If he can pick up right where he left off, he could be an interesting guy to watch. Sickels grade: NR Projected level: A+ (Sarasota)
Chris Heisey, OF - Put up strong offensive numbers last year between A+ and AA, but needs to do something to separate himself from the pack of guys ahead of him at this point (Dorn, Stubbs, Cumberland). Sickels grade: C+ Projected level: AA (Carolina)
Sean Henry, OF - Another solid minor league outfielder. He put up an .816 OPS in Chattanooga last year, making me think that he's earned a shot at AA. Sickels grade: C+ Projected level: AA (Carolina)
Danny Ray Herrera, LHP - Lefty Smurf had a hell of a spring, retiring 26 of the 30 batters he faced. His story is pretty well-known by now; 5'6" left-hander who throws an 85mph fastball, great changeup, and a screwball. We like him a lot here. Sickels grade: C Projected level: MLB (Cincinnati)
Robert Manuel, RHP - Ultimately, to most Reds fans, he's "the guy we got for Sean Casey". He had a great year at Chattanooga though, putting up a 1.40 ERA (!) in 77 innings. he had a terrible spring with the big club, giving up 8 ER in 2 innings. Sickels grade: C+ Projected level: AAA (Louisville)
Devin Mesoraco, C - First rounder in 2007. Disappointing so far, although last year in Dayton, coined a new term for Farmers Only by going 1-for-4 so many times, it's called "pulling a Mesoraco". The Reds have a lot invested in this kid, so they're going to need to keep pushing him up the system. Sickels grade: C Projected level: A+ (Sarasota)
Curtis Partsch, RHP - A tall starter at 6'5", pitched well out of the bullpen last year, but struggled as a starter. Hasn't done much to establish himself as a legit MLB prospect, but may get that chance this year. Sickels grade: NR Projected level: A+ (Sarasota)
Yorman Rodriguez, OF - A 16 year old signing from Venezuela, he signed for $2.5M, the largest signing bonus ever given to a Venezuelan player. Along with Juan Duran, he's living evidence to the Reds commitment to find international talent, especially in Latin America. Prototypical 5-tool guy, it'll be interesting to watch this guy develop. Sickels grade: C Projected level: Rookie (GCL Reds)
Josh Roenicke, RHP - Josh has closer stuff, but hasn't been able to put it together at the big league level yet. After a great season in AAA last year, he came up and didn't impress. Still, he's got the stuff to be a force in the Cincinnati bullpen for a long time, and will definitely get more chances to prove himself this year. Sickels grade: B- Projected level: AAA (Louisville)
Jordan Smith, RHP - After a stellar 2007 in Dayton, picked up right where he left off in Sarasota last season, earning a midseason callup to AA. Should get another chance to prove himself there this year, and will be starting Saturday's game in Dayton. Sickels grade: NR Projected level: AA (Carolina)
Neftali Soto, 3B - Neftali is the #2 rated prospect in the Reds system, according to RR. Makes a lot of contact, but hasn't hit for much power, but that should come. Sickels grade: B Projected level: A+ (Sarasota)
Zach Stewart, RHP - Another future closer. As a 3rd round pick last year, put up a 1.09 ERA in 33 innings between Dayton and Sarasota. Only 16.2 innings in Sarasota last year leads me to believe he'll probably start the season there, but I wouldn't be surprised to see him move up the system pretty quickly. Sickels grade: B- Projected level: A+ (Sarasota)
Drew Stubbs, CF - As obc will tell you, he'll never be as good to some Reds fans as Tim Lincecum, who the Reds passed on to get him, but that doesn't mean Stubbs won't become a great everyday outfielder for the Reds. He doesn't hit for much power, but he can provide a high average and speed on the basepaths with Gold Glove caliber defense in CF. Sickels grade: B- Projected level: AAA (Louisville)
Craig Tatum, C - He'll be Louisville's starting catcher, replacing Hanigan in that role this season. He doesn't have much of a bat, but is an excellent defensive catcher. He actually had a nice spring, contrary to his minor league offensive numbers, posting a 1.240 OPS (!) and driving in 8 runs in 14 ABs. Sickels grade: NR Projected level: AAA (Louisville)
Mace Thurman, LHP - To be honest, I don't know much about Mace, other than he throws left-handed and he has a cool name. In his rookie season last year, posted a 2.97 ERA between Billings and Dayton, and will probably get a shot in the Sarasota bullpen this year. Sickels grade: NR Projected level: A+ (Sarasota)
Chris Valaika, IF - A shortstop by trade, Chris is another guy who isn't projected to stick there, instead being better suited for 2B or 3B. Wherever he plays, however, his bat is legit. Sickels grade: B Projected level: AAA (Louisville)
Philippe-Alexandre Valiquette, LHP - Canadian left-handed reliever. Did okay in Sarasota last year, but not spectacular, and has been in the system since 2004. Sickels grade: NR Projected level: AA (Carolina)
Pedro Viola, LHP - Has the stuff, but hasn't put up the numbers. There's been talk of him making the big-league club out of Spring Training, but he's the biggest longshot at this point, and will probably report to AAA. He's a name we'll be hearing about soon enough if he keeps producing in Louisville, and didn't give up a run in the 5.2 innings he pitched in Spring Training this year. Sickels grade: C Projected level: AAA (Louisville)
Sean Watson, RHP - Converted to the bullpen last year, with mixed results. He's still a guy to keep an eye on, as he'll probably close in Carolina this year. Sickels grade: C Projected level: AA (Carolina)

So there you have it, your Reds Futures team. Lots to be excited about, I think. A reminder about the games:

Tonight, Apr. 3 (Zebulon, NC): Arroyo v. Buck (6:05 PM)
Tomorrow, Apr. 4 (Dayton, OH): Cueto v. Smith (3:05 PM)

Who are you guys looking forward to seeing in these games?

Reds beat Phillies 8-4, ask to take home the Commissioner's Trophy

Slyde — Mon, 09 Mar 2009 20:12:00 -0000

For the second time this spring, the Reds have taken down the defending World Champions. It's almost becoming routine. The highlights:

The Reds don't seem to be grasping the concept of HAVOC properly as they hit their 5th grand slam of the spring today. It was Chris Valaika's turn in this one, as his fancy four-run home run broke a 4-4 tie and put the Reds up for good in the 7th inning. As ken said in the game thread, I'm tired of the Reds sitting around waiting for the four-run home run. Let's see some real HAVOC out there!
Ryan Hanigan is building a nice little case for more playing time so far. He's now batting .429 on the season after going 2-2 today with his first home run of the spring, a 2-run job in the 3rd off of the THE Cole Hamels. I know that Hanigan isn't likely to be an everyday catcher in the Bigs, but I sure hope that he gets a fair shot at some playing time this summer because he might just surprise us.
Yonder Alonso had his first home run of the spring as well. He's now averaging a Mesoraco for the spring.
Bronson Arroyo started the game but was only so-so today. He pitche 3.1 innings, allowing 3 hits (2 solo HR), 1 BB, and 2 strikeouts. He only allowed 2 runs, but he didn't make it very far into the game. I'm sure the Reds were hoping he'd go at least 4 innings this start. I hope they pulled him because of pitch count and not because of something more sinister.
The bullpen was solid for the remaining 5.2 innings of the game with the star definitely being Daniel Ray Herrera who struck out 2 batters in his one inning of work. I really hope he makes the team. How can you not root for a guy like that?
Josh Roenicke and Sam LeCure each pitched shutout innings. I'd be interested to hear where Dusty stands with Roenicke right now. Outside of the heat he was throwing in batting practice early in spring, we haven't heard much about him this year.

The Joe Nuxhall Memorial Honorary Star of the Game goes to Chris Valaika. Chris receives two tickets for a tour of the Louisville Slugger museum that must be redeemed by the end of May, which is good because he may not be down there much after that.

Who should we keep an eye on in Spring Training?

BK — Wed, 11 Feb 2009 13:00:10 -0000

With spring training just a few days away, it seems like a lot of the questions about the 25-man roster for Opening Day have been answered. However, there are a few spots up for grabs, so we have a few guys for each spot that we should be keeping an eye on. First, the players who I think definitely have a spot on the big league team locked up (barring injuries):

Hernandez (Starting C)
Hanigan (Backup C)
Votto (Starting 1B)
Phillips (Starting 2B)
Encarnacion (Starting 3B)
Taveras (Starting CF)
Bruce (Starting RF)
Harang (Rotation)
Arroyo (Rotation)
Volquez (Rotation)
Cueto (Rotation)
Cordero (Closer)
Weathers (Relief)
Rhodes (Relief)
Lincoln (Relief)
Burton (Relief)
Bray (Relief)
Hairston (Utility)
Keppinger (Infield)
Gonzalez (Infield)

As for the last three guys, Hairston definitely makes the roster, but where he plays is anyone's guess at this point. Keppinger in all likelihood will be starting two days a week at an infield spot, while coming off the bench otherwise. Gonzalez makes the team in some capacity if he's healthy, based on the way the Reds value his defensive reputation. One of those guys will start at SS, so that's covered. That's 20 spots, leaving 5 more on the 25 man roster. Let's look at the spots up for grabs:

Starting LF

Favorite: Dickerson

Also in consideration: Hopper, Gomes, Jones

Dickerson gets the nod here, based off of his season last year. As long as he doesn't screw up in spring training, I think the spot is his. If he doesn't perform, either Hopper or Gomes will probably start there, and Hairston could see some time there as well. Jones is on the list because with you never know with Dusty, but realistically, I don't think he makes it. That makes 21.

4th OF

Favorite: Hopper

Also in consideration: Gomes, Jones, Stubbs, Nix

I think Hopper makes it no matter what as a backup outfielder at the very least. I don't see them sending him to AAA, and I honestly think he could thrive in this 4th OF role. He'll come in handy in bunting and pinch running situations. I think Gomes' big bat also makes him a worthy candidate for a pinch hitting role, but he's the one on a minor league contract. Stubbs and Nix could be considered if they have great spring trainings, but neither one of them will probably start right away if they made it. It's more likely that Stubbs starts in AAA to play everyday while there isn't a starting spot available in Cincinnati, and Nix goes to AAA as an insurance outfielder, kind of like Hairston/Cabrera did last year. And, if Jacque Jones makes the roster over any of those people, we can throw away the 2009 season.

5th Starter

Favorite: Owings

Also in consideration: Bailey, Maloney, Masset, Thompson, Ramirez

This will be one of the more interesting position battles to watch. Owings is the slight favorite here, but I'm not sure why. Almost any of these guys could take the job with a strong ST, so any start not made by one of the 4 rotation guys will be very important the the makeup of the team.

That puts the roster at 23, with 11 pitchers and 12 position players. I'd think they'd go with one more of each.

7th Bullpen Spot

Favorite: Masset

Also in consideration: Roenicke, Ramirez, Bailey, Herrera, Fisher, Fultz, Flores

I think that Masset gets the nod here. He can spot start if necessary, has (semi-)successful major league experience, and I think will have an edge being the guy the Reds traded Junior for. If an injury happens, or if Masset struggles in ST, Roenicke is next in line, and I think we'll see him sooner than we did last year. The other guys all have an excellent shot at being in the big league bullpen this season, with the exception of Bailey, who when he gets another shot will probably start.

That rounds out the pitching staff. One more bat off the bench...

Mr. Irrelevant

Favorite: Gomes

Also in consideration: Castillo, Richar, Rosales, Ward, Nix

For me, this was a coin flip between Gomes and Wilkin, and I think it could have went either way. Castillo can catch and play infield, which is a big bonus, but I figured we have enough infielders and no real power threat off the bench, so I'm going with Gomes. I think Richar and Ward are probably next in line.

So there's my 25 man roster, with Dickerson, Hopper, Owings, Masset, and Gomes being my final 5. Anybody you think doesn't deserve to be on the first list of 20? Who are your final 5?