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Baltimore Orioles Top 20 Prospects for 2010

John Sickels — Fri, 04 Dec 2009 22:59:42 -0000

More photos » by Frank Franklin II - AP

3 months ago: Baltimore Orioles starter Brian Matusz delivers a pitch during the first inning of a baseball game against the New York Yankees, Saturday, Sept. 12, 2009, in New York. (AP Photo/Frank Franklin II)

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Top 20 Baltimore Orioles Prospects for 2010

All grades are EXTREMELY PRELIMINARY and subject to change. Don't get too worried about exact rankings at this point, especially once you get beyond the Top 10. Grade C+/C guys are pretty interchangeable depending on what you want to emphasize. Complete reports on these and over 1,000 other players will be in the 2010 Baseball Prospect Book, now available for pre-order, shipping on February 2^nd!

1) Brian Matusz, LHP, Grade A: I don't see anything to complain about here. Could be something like a cross between Barry Zito and Mark Mulder when they were young.

2) Jake Arrieta, RHP, Grade B+: I like this guy a little more than most people, but I love the upside and I think the command will come around.

3) Zach Britton, LHP, Grade B+: Love the grounders, solid strikeout rate, I'm pro-Britton.

4) Josh Bell, 3B, Grade B: I like Bell too, but I see him more as a solid regular than a future star.

5) Brandon Erbe, RHP, Grade B: Borderline B-. Have always loved the upside, but durability and consistency remain concerns.

6) Brandon Snyder, 1B, Grade B-: I think he has a good bat, but not a GREAT one.

7) Matt Hobgood, RHP, Grade B-: Liked him a lot in high school, need more pro data before going higher.

8) Mychal Givens, SS, Grade B-: Great tools, grade is highly speculative at this point until we get some performance data. Can always try pitching if he doesn't hit.

9) Brandon Waring, 3B-1B, Grade C+: I like the power, but am unsure about the glove. Like Bell and Snyder, he seems more solid-ish than star-ish. Batting average and OBP may be issues.

10) Kam Mickolio, RHP, Grade C+: I am the Great Mickolio. I need control for my baseball. I have no changeup. Do you need fastball for your bullpen?

11) Luis Lebron, RHP, Grade C+: Another hard-throwing bullpen option if he throws strikes.

12) Steve Johnson, RHP, Grade C+: Might get overlooked because of his boring name. Possible fourth starter type if the command is there.

13) Brandon Cooney, RHP, Grade C+: Another hard-throwing bullpen option if he throws strikes.

14) Ryan Berry, RHP, Grade C+: A steal in the ninth round, IF his arm doesn't fall off due to the Rice injury curse.

15) Ashur Tolliver, LHP, Grade C+: Interesting southpaw arm with very good stuff, probably fits in the pen better than as a starter.

16) Caleb Joseph, C, Grade C: Might be a C+, could be convinced to raise this grade. Good power potential, defense is questionable.

17) Troy Patton, LHP, Grade C: Arm problems have cut his stock drastically, but I wouldn't count him out just yet. Command still a strength.

18) Michael Ohlman, C, Grade C: Power potential draws lots of praise, but no pro data yet and defense is questioned.

19) Xavier Avery, OF, Grade C: High-ceiling tools outfielder with questionable bat, young enough to improve greatly.

20) Cameron Coffey, LHP, Grade C: Tommy John survivor, could rank much higher once we see how he recovers from surgery. Clocked as high as 95 MPH before injury.

OTHERS (All Grade C): Matt Angle, OF; David Baker, RHP; Jesse Beal, RHP; Pedro Beato, RHP; Bobby Bundy, RHP; Jacob Cowan, RHP; Oliver Drake, RHP; Pat Egan, RHP; Pedro Florimon, SS; Eddie Gamboa, RHP; Randy Henry, RHP; Tyler Henson, 3B; L.J. Hoes, 2B; Rhyne Hughes, 1B; Jarret Martin, LHP; Cole McCurry, LHP; Bill Rowell, OF; Tyler Townsend, 1B; Justin Turner, 2B; Aaron Wirsch, LHP; Rick Zagone, LHP.

I think the Orioles system is often underrated. There is a lot to like at the top, with Matusz entering the '10 rotation and Arrieta not far behind him. I probably like Arrieta and Britton a bit more than most analysts. Erbe has tremendous potential as well. There is the nucleus of a really good pitching staff here, with several potential major league starters as well as the raw material of a fine bullpen, with a mixture of excellent arms (Mickolio, Lebron, Cooney) as well as guys with command (Egan, Gamboa) who could be fine staff fillers.

Things are thinner on the position side. The best of the hitters is Bell, but I see him more as a very solid guy than a future superstar. Snyder and Waring have potential, but again they strike me more as guys who can be pretty good rather than lineup anchors. Athletes like Givens and Avery have great ceilings but who knows if they can learn how to actually play. Joseph and Ohlman provide some catching depth behind Wieters, but neither one are certain to stick there.

All in all, this system has some major strength in young pitching but they could stand to boost the hitting.

Reds Re-sign Ramon Hernandez to a One-year Deal

Slyde — Mon, 16 Nov 2009 16:19:32 -0000

More photos » by Mark Duncan - AP

Ramon Hernandez is re-signed by the Reds. Will he be the everyday catcher?

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According to Ken Rosenthal, the Reds have re-signed catcher Ramon Hernandez to a one year deal. Rosenthal says the deal has a vesting option for 2011 if Hernandez plays 120 games in 2010. He played in 81 games last season and has played in 120 or more games just twice in the last 6 seasons. No other details have been released on the terms yet.

The Reds traded Ryan Freel and prospects Justin Turner and Brandon Waring to the Orioles last season for Hernandez. He came to the Reds and batted .258/.336/.362 in 331 plate appearances last season, which is very similar to the .258/.319/.395 he posted in the previous two seasons combined with the Orioles. It shouldn't be a surprise then that his projections fall in a similar category. CHONE has Hernandez at .253/.322/.387 and ZiPS has him posting a .255/.324/.385 line. Neither line is all that impressive.

I'm optimistic that given the budget concerns, the Reds haven't overpaid on this deal. However, given the $8.5 million option that the Reds had to decline prior to signing Hernandez, I wouldn't be surprised if the dollar amount is more than any of us would have given to him.

The real key though is that Hernandez's playing time needs to be balanced with Ryan Hanigan. Neither probably deserves the title of everyday catcher, but I think together they could make a decent platoon. They're not going to hit a ton, but defensively they are solid and I think the Reds could do much worse at the catcher position.

UPDATE: Mark Sheldon has the details on Twitter:

Terms on R. Hernandez signing: $3M for 2010 and $3.250M for vesting option in 2011 that kicks in with 120 games played.

Orioles 5, Blue Jays 4: SWEEEEEP

Camden Chat — Mon, 05 Oct 2009 00:39:23 -0000

More photos » by Gail Burton - AP

2 months ago: Toronto Blue Jays pitcher Brandon League reacts after making his second throwing error in the 11th inning of a baseball game allowing Baltimore Orioles Michael Aubrey, pictured at right, to score the winning run Sunday, Oct. 4, 2009, in Baltimore. The Orioles won 5-4. (AP Photo/Gail Burton)

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The Orioles ended the season on a high note as they swept the Blue Jays for their fourth win in a row. It took 11 innings and a few errors by the Blue Jays, but they got it done. When I said prior to the first game that I wanted a sweep I didn't actually think it would happen, but I'm glad they listened.

Jeremy Guthrie had a personal goal this year of reaching 200 innings pitched, and going into today's game he was at 192.1. He ended up pitching 7.2 innings to give him 200 innings on the nose. He didn't pitch horribly, but he did do what we all expect him to: give up home runs. Three of them, to be exact. Overall he allowed 4 runs on 9 hits. I have high hopes that Guthrie will be able to bounce back in 2010. I don't have anything on which to base that, but I have those hopes all the same.

Nick Markakis had a good final game, collecting 2 hits to make his total on the year 188, the most on the team in 2009. With Brian Roberts on 2nd base in the first inning, Nick hit his 18th home run to give the O's a 2-1 lead. Guthrie gave back that lead with single runs in the 4th and 5th innings. In the bottom of the 6th inning the Orioles loaded the bases with zero outs but after a Matt Wieters ground out and a Markakis strike out it looked like they might waste their opportunity. With two outs Dave Trembley sent Justin Turner in to pinch hit for Melvein Mora. It seemed strange to pull Mora on his last game as an Oriole, but Melvin didn't seem upset at all. He was grinning on the bench receiving congratulations from his teammates, and it turned out to be a good move. Turner lined the first pitch he saw right up the middle to score Roberts and Andino and give the O's a 4-3 lead.

Between innings the fans gave Melvin Mora a standing ovation in appreciation of his years of service to the Orioles. I didn't see the entire game as I mostly checked in during commercials during the Ravens game. I did happen to see the ovation as well as Melvin's teammates giving him hugs and handshakes, and I admit I got a little emotional.

Just after all that, however, Guthrie unfortunately gave up the lead in the top of the 7th inning with another home run. After light hitting John McDonald hit his 4th HR of the year (and 2nd against the Orioles), the score remained tied at 4-4 until the bottom of the 11th, when the O's walked off with a little help from Toronto's pitcher Brandon League.

Michael Aubrey led off the 11th inning with a single, and Lou Montanez followed with a very good bunt up the first base line. League fielded with plenty of time to get Montanez, but threw the ball away. With runners on first and second with on zero outs, Jeff Fiorentino bunted in an attempt to get the winning run to third. Again League fielded, and AGAIN he made a throwing error. Michael Aubrey raced home to score the winning run and end the Orioles season.

-Stacey

Poll

For the final time, who was today's Most Birdland Player?

Nick Markakis (2 run HR)

68 votes

Brian Roberts (2 hits, 2 walks, 2 runs, 1 stolen base)

63 votes

Justin Turner (pinch hit 2 RBI single to give the O's the temporary lead)

35 votes

Jeff Fiorentino (sac bunt that lead to the winning run)

7 votes

173 votes | Poll has closed

Yankees 13, Orioles 3: This ugly loss isn't enough to dampen my mood.

Camden Chat — Mon, 14 Sep 2009 04:58:59 -0000

More photos » by Mark Lennihan - AP

Nice chain, Cesar. (AP Photo/Mark Lennihan)

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The Yankees are the best team in baseball, and before yesterday hadn't lost back-to-back games at home since 17-18 June. The Orioles finish the season 5-13 against them, and when you compare rosters it's not hard to understand why. But this final series, despite today's ugly loss, was one of the most satisfying that I've watched this year.

Friday night's game was delayed by over an hour due to rain that continued to fall pretty much all night. The Yankee Stadium crowd was louder and more intense than usual. And Chris Tillman (born in 1988 for crying out loud), in his 9th major league start, responded by striking out 8 Yankees and getting the win.

On Saturday, Brian Matusz (born in 1987 and making his 8th major league start), dominated the Yankees for 7 innings. After allowing a two out double to Alex Rodriguez in the first inning, Matusz didn't give anything else up until a 1 out walk to Melky Cabrera in the 5th inning. When he finally got into a little bit of trouble in the 7th, he reached back and found something extra, striking out Jorge Posada and Derek Jeter to end his day.

So they lost today. Oh well. I didn't watch the game but from what I can tell Jeremy Guthrie got knocked around a bit but controlled the damage pretty well, and then the Yankees feasted on two pitchers (Chris Waters and Bob McCrory) who have no business being in the major leagues. The Orioles offense wasn't able to do much against CC Sabathia to no one's surprise, but rookies Justin Turner and Nolan Reimold put up a good show. Turner reached base three times and had an RBI, and Reimold had two hits, including a double.

The Orioles are a long way from contending in the AL East, but if and when they do get there, it'll be thanks to Chris Tillman, Brian Matusz, and the other young pitchers the O's are hoping will turn out. Andy MacPhail has said that the Orioles probably can't match the offenses that the Yankees and Red Sox are capable of assembling, so instead they have to grow enough arms to compete that way. If this weekend is any indication, Andy MacPhail knows what he's talking about.

-Stacey

Poll

Who was today's Most Birdland Player (MBP)?

Nolan Reimold (2-4, double, only O with multiple hits)

49 votes

Justin Turner (single, 2 walks, run, RBI)

14 votes

Joe Flacco (Ravens are birds too!)

44 votes

Can I vote for Brian Matusz again?

54 votes

161 votes | Poll has closed

Norfolk Tides Roundup: 5-14 August

Stacey — Fri, 14 Aug 2009 21:57:17 -0000

The Tides spent the past week and a half battling against affiliates for the AL East giants, with back-to-back series against the Pawtucket Red Sox and the Scranton/Wilkes-Barre Yankees. With their former big guns now holding spots in the Orioles rotation they're reduced to Jake Arrieta, Troy Patton, and a band of misfits as their starting pitchers.

In the 4 game set against Pawtucket the Tides went 3-1 with their only loss in game three, started by Radhames Liz. I don't feel the need to spend much time on Liz considering I hope to never see him on the Orioles again. He's been in the starting rotation since May 27th, splitting time between Bowie and Norfolk. I have no idea what they're doing with him unless they've decided he's never going to make it so they are sticking him where they need a warm body, because if he IS ever to find big league success, it'll be as a reliever.

To start the series, the Tides won a slugfest 8-7, overcoming another bad outing by Troy Patton (3.2 IP, 6 H, 6 R, 3 BB, 0 K). Offensive star for the game was minor league-lifer Brandon Pinckney who went 4-5 with 2 2B. They took the second game in the series 5-3 behind a strong outings from David Pauley and Brandon Snyder (see sickuvitall's Fan Post). The fourth game was the sweetest victory as Jake Arrieta earned the win at the Fenway Futures game. Jake pitched 6 innings, allowing just 2 ER on 6 hits with 4 Ks and 0 BBs. Here's hoping we see plenty of Arrieta wins at Fenway Park in the future.

The Tides followed that series with four games at home vs Scranton/Wilkes-Barre. Game three of the series was rained out twice and the Tides dropped the series 1-2. They lost game one 6-1 as Andy Mitchell gave up 5 runs in 5.2 innings and the Tides offense snoozed the day away, managing just 3 hits off the starting pitcher Anthony Claggett. Game two was even worse, with the Tides being held to just 2 hits the entire game as ex-Orioles Russ Ortiz pitched 7 shutout innings. It appears Russ found the perfect place for his skills, doesn't it? The Tides avoided the sweep with a 4-2 win in the finale headlined by Blake Davis's 2 hit, 2 RBI day.

Performances worth noting:

In these two series, 1B Brandon Snyder went 8-24 (.333) with 2 2B, 4 BB, and 4 K.
I've taken a liking to 1B/OF/DH Michael Aubrey. It won't be long until I'm telling you all that he can hit and you should deal with it. He played in 5 of the 7 games in these two series, going 7-19 (.368) with a 2B, 2 BB, and 2 K.
2B Justin Turner had a great time in these series, going 9-22 with 5 2B, 6 BB, and 1 K.
Unjustly sent down Kam Mickolio has made four appearances since his demotion, pitching 5 innings and allowing 3 hits and 3 ER (all in one outing) while walking two and striking out 6.
Dennis Sarfate has been with the Tides since July 24th and has pitched 8.2 innings over 8 appearances. He's given up 8 ER on 9 H, striking out 8 and walking 2. 5 of those runs and 5 of those hits came in one 0.2 IP performance on July 31st.

Tonight the Tides start a series on the road against the Charlotte Knights. Jake Arrieta looks to turn in a second consecutive strong performance as he faces off against Daniel Hudson. Hudson has had a very interesting year. The 22 year old was drafted in the 5th round of the 2008 draft by the White Sox. He started the year in A ball where he made four starts, striking out 30 and walking only 2. He was the promoted to A+ where he made 8 starts, including a game against the Frederick Keys in which he struck out 8 over 7 innings. He then started 9 games at AA where he put a a K/9 of 10 and a K/BB of 6.3. He's made one start so far in AAA, allowing 8 hits and 4 runs in 4 innings on August 9th with just 2 strikeouts, tying his lowest total in a game this year (in his season debut). On April 30th he struck out 13 in 7 innings. On April 24th he struck out 11 in 5.2 innings. This is a hell of a pitching matchup.

Down on the Farm: Norfolk Tides

Stacey — Fri, 17 Apr 2009 00:14:47 -0000

The rotation: Brad Bergesen, David Pauley, David Hernandez, Chris Waters, and Chris Tillman.

Bergesen has started two games this year, pitching a total of 11 innings while giving up 6 hits, 3 walks, and striking out 9. Brad is on the short list to be called up and will probably see action for the Orioles sooner or later. Sooner of course being this week due to Alfredo Simon's injury, later being whenever Trembley and MacPhail can't stand to see Adam Eaton any longer.

David Pauley has one start under his belt, taking the hard luck loss against the Charlotte Knights 3-1. He allowed 2 ER, 1 BB, and struck out 3 in 5.2 innings. Pauley couldn't impress enough in Spring Training to make the cut but my gut tells me he'll be one of the sacrificial lambs called upon while we continue to wait for the big guns.

David Hernandez allowed one run and struck out 9 in 4.2 innings in his only start so far this season. I've heard tell that Hernandez is more suited to the bullpen, which if true is fine. God knows the Orioles need the help in that department.

Chris Waters is who he is. The only Norfolk starter to have a rough outing so far, he's allowed 4 ER in 3 innings in his start, walking 3 and striking out 1.

The youngest member of our holy trinity is Chris Tillman, and he's also pitching at the highest level. Tillman is the youngest player on the Tides, with the next youngest, Matt Wieters, coming in at almost two years older. In his only start of the year, Chris Tillman threw 4 no hit innings, walking 3 and striking out 5.

WIETERS WATCH!!

Matt hasn't done much with the bat this year, going just 4 for 18. But who cares? We're coming up on the magical day when Wieters can be called up to save us from Chad Moeller. I just don't think it'll be right away, although I can't for the life of me figure out why. I'm hoping it will be soon, though, because I'm going to the game Tuesday and would love to see his debut. Although, who am I kidding, I'll be there no matter when it is.

The other batters:

Nolan Reimold has been lighting up AAA. He's 10 for 25 with 2 HR and one 2B, posting a cool 1.124 OPS. This is Nolan's first go at AAA so let's hope he can keep it up.

Lou Montanez, the most controversial player in the Orioles' organization, has gone 12 for 26 and is doing everything he can to prove he belongs in the majors. He has spent part of two seasons at AAA before without much success. I know some might not believe me, but I really do want Montanez to be successful.

Other players of note on the Tides include Scott Moore (6 for 25, 1 HR, 1 2B), Justin Turner (3 for 16), and Oscar Salazar (7 for 25, 1 2B, 1 3B).

The Battle for 25th Man

SC — Wed, 18 Mar 2009 15:32:13 -0000

One of the first things I ever did on this site was give way too much of a crap about the Chris Gomez v. Enrique Wilson utility infielder battle of Spring Training 2005. Gomez won. All was right with the world. Gomez then hit .279/.359/.342 in 2005 and poked even more singles around in spot duty the next two seasons, and now he's back in camp, but he's really too old now and his numbers in '08 with the Pirates (.273/.322/.333) show his usefulness fading.

Still, Enrique Wilson got 22 ABs with the Cubs in 2005 and never played again.

This spring it's not really a battle. There's a super sub role open with the team, and though the O's traded for Ryan Freel who fills the role nicely, there's also Jolbert Cabrera -- who was once shot in the buttocks -- and I think he deserves a long look.

Numbers this spring:

Player	AB	AVG	OBP	SLG	BB/K	SB/CS
Ryan Freel	35	.257	.366	.314	2/11	6/0
Jolbert Cabrera	24	.417	.400	.542	0/3	1/0

Freel's going to play a lot if they can help it. He adds plenty to the team in theory. He's got plate discipline, which makes him a viable pinch-hitter even if his contact abilities have slipped and his power has become basically negligible. He runs really well. He can handle center if he has to, plus the corner OF spots and second base. He's probably a lesser shortstop than Cabrera, who's probably not as good a CF as Freel, although we also have Pie if Jones goes down or whatever, and Pie might be the best center fielder on the team. Freel is also injury-prone and has played in 77 and 48 games the last two years.

Cabrera isn't as good a base-stealer as Freel, but he's not a slow runner and can be used just for extra wheels in a tight situation, same as Freel likely will be at several times this year should he stay healthy.

I know Freel came over in trade for Fat Ramon Hernandez and Cabrera is just a spring training scrub for all intents and purposes. If Freel is healthy, he's the guy. But here's what I'm actually more intrigued by: Does Jolbert Cabrera have a place on this team sometime in 2009?

Assume the Birds go north with 13 pitchers and 12 position players. We know we'll have:

C: ZAUN + one, probably Robby Hammock, who can play other positions

1B: Huff

2B: Roberts

3B: Mora

SS: Izturis

OF: Markakis, Jones, Pie, Scott

1B/3B/2B/DH: Wigginton

That would leave one open spot. It'll be Freel. But should he come up lame, Cabrera seems like a guy that would fit in. He can play a lot of positions, including a better short than Freel, and Izturis is going to have days he has to sit, or he's going to have times where he'll need to be hit for late in a tight game.

I'd rather have Freel, with Wigginton also offering some level of positional flexibility (as well as Hammock) than see Cabrera over Freel right off, and with the way Gomez is hitting (.095/.269/.143) he's well out, too. Donnie Murphy isn't doing anything, either.

It's simply food for thought with little going on. The battle isn't much since Freel is all but guaranteed, but if (when?) Freel goes down, who comes up?

What if the Reds went with youth in 2009?

Slyde — Tue, 11 Nov 2008 17:41:53 -0000

Getty Images

I was thinking this morning about the possibility that the Reds may remain inactive during the off-season. My next thought was that maybe then they should go with a full-on youth movement and let the players for 2010 - at least those that have played in Double-A or higher - play and get them some experience so that they are rolling when 2010 comes along. Who would those players be?

Drew Stubbs - he's probably the only real prospect in Triple-A, at least on offense. Shaun Cumberland put up decent numbers, but I think he looks more like a 4th outfielder than an everyday starter. A case could be made that Stubbs should start in CF even if the Reds don't go the youth route in 2009. His defense should solidify the Reds up the middle and I believe that eventually he'll post an OBP in the .350-.360 range. He probably could use some refinement though. Chance of playing in Cincinnati in 2009: Very good.

Daniel Dorn - he's a left-handed power-hitter who played most the season in Chattanooga last year. I doubt he'd make the leap over Stubbs, and given that he's left-handed I don't see him starting in front of Dickerson. Chance of playing in Cincinnati in 2009: Slim.

Sean Henry/Chris Heisey - both of these guys are right-handed corner outfielders who need to develop some more power if they are going to play in the Majors. They both get on base well and Heisey has some decent speed. Neither player is ready to sniff starting in the Majors. Chance of playing in Cincinnati in 2009: Tiny.

Chris Valaika - Outside of his first 200 PAs in Sarasota, his bat has been good all throughout the minors. His defense was questionable at shortstop, but Doug has been noticing some chatter indicating that he might be improving enough there to stick. If his defense is truly improved, I honestly wouldn't be surprised to see him break camp with the Reds and start at shortstop on Opening Day - especially if Alex Gonzalez continues to be unhealthy. If the Reds decide to make it look like they are playing for 2009 though, Valaika will probably start the year in Louisville. Chance of playing in Cincinnati in 2009: Good.

Justin Turner - By all accounts, Turner's defense at 2B is very good and his bat has been solid throughout the minors. With Brandon Phillips holding on to 2B right now, it's doubtful that Turner will see any time in 2009 with the big club, but don't be surprised if he makes the jump if BP goes down with an injury. Chance of playing in Cincinnati in 2009: Doubtful.

What do you think? Any of these guys going to make the team out of Spring Training?