SB Nation - Juan Francisco

MLB Trade Rumors: Dissecting the Red's Decision to Restructure Scott Rolen's Contract

raygu — Sun, 20 Dec 2009 17:00:31 -0000

by Ben Margot - AP

4 months ago: Cincinnati Reds' Aaron Harang works against the San Francisco Giants during the fourth inning of a baseball game Sunday, Aug. 9, 2009, in San Francisco. (AP Photo/Ben Margot)

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A few days ago, there was a rumor that the Dodgers were talking to the Reds about trading for starting pitcher Aaron Harang. Then on Friday, that rumor was put to rest as Dodgers GM Ned Colletti was quoted as saying the talk between the two teams is all but dead.

Then yesterday, we hear that the Reds have restructured the contract of third baseman Scott Rolen to give them more "payroll flexibility". Instead of receiving $11 million in 2010, Rolen will receive $6 million in 2010, $5 million in 2011 and $6.5 million in 2012. So, the Red extended Rolen's contract through 2012 to give them payroll flexibility. But, this extension also blocks two of their 3b prospects Todd Frazier and Juan Francisco. Both will compete for the opening in left field in spring training, and one of them will be the first to be called up when Rolen goes on the DL. My money is on Frazier.

But getting back to the rumored Harang to the Dodgers deal. The Reds were rumored to want one or two guys off the Dodgers major league roster in return for Harang. My guess is they have interest in one of Scott Elbert and James McDonald along with SS Chin-Lung Hu.

Could the restructuring of Rolen's contract allow the Reds to take on more of Harang's salary in a possible deal to the Dodgers?

Poll

Did the restructuring of Scott Rolen's contract allow the Red to take on more of Harang's salary in a possible deal with the Dodgers?

Baseball America's Top 10 Prospect Lists for 2010

raygu — Thu, 26 Nov 2009 18:00:18 -0000

We continue the Baseball America Top 10 Prospect lists for 2010 with the NL Central:

Cubs

1.	Starlin Castro, ss
2.	Brett Jackson, of
3.	Josh Vitters, 3b
4.	Andrew Cashner, rhp
5.	Jay Jackson, rhp
6.	Hak-Ju Lee, ss
7.	Logan Watkins, 2b
8.	Chris Carpenter, rhp
9.	Ryan Flaherty, ss/2b/3b
10.	D.J. LeMahieu, ss/2b

More after the jump:

Reds

1.	Todd Frazier, of/2b/3b
2.	Yonder Alonso, 1b
3.	Mike Leake, rhp
4.	Chris Heisey, of
5.	Juan Francisco, 3b
6.	Yorman Rodriguez, of
7.	Travis Wood, lhp
8.	Matt Maloney, lhp
9.	Brad Boxberger, rhp
10.	Zack Cozart, ss

Brewers

1. Alcides Escobar, ss

2. Brett Lawrie, 2b

3. Mat Gamel, 3b

4. Eric Arnett, rhp

5. Jonathan Lucroy, c

6. Kentrail Davis, of

7. Zach Braddock, lhp

8. Lorenzo Cain, of

9. Jake Odorizzi, rhp

10. Kyle Heckathorn, rhp

Astros

1. Jason Castro, c

2. Jiovanni Mier, ss

3. Jordan Lyles, rhp

4. Sammy Gervacio, rhp

5. Chia-Jen Lo, rhp

6. Ross Seaton, rhp

7. Tanner Bushue, rhp

8. Jay Austin, of

9. Jon Gaston, of

10. T.J. Steele, of

Pirates

1. Pedro Alvarez, 3b

2. Jose Tabata, of

3. Tony Sanchez, c

4. Brad Lincoln, rhp

5. Chase D'Arnaud, ss/2b

6. Starling Marte, of

7. Tim Alderson, rhp

8. Zack Von Rosenberg, rhp

9. Rudy Owens, lhp

10. Gorkys Hernandez, of

Cardinals

1. Shelby Miller	rhp
2. Jaime Garcia	lhp
3. Lance Lynn	rhp
4. Daryl Jones	of
5. David Freese	3b/1b
6. Eduardo Sanchez	rhp
7. Allen Craig	of/1b/3b
8. Blake Hawksworth	rhp
9. Daniel Descalso	2b
10. Robert Stock	c

Sabermetric Review of the 2009 Reds, Part 2: Offense

JinAZ — Tue, 24 Nov 2009 20:00:14 -0000

A late season surge helped prevent a historically bad offense, but nonetheless, relative to average, the Reds fell off 26 runs in 2009 to 71 runs below average (after park adjustments). It was the worst Reds offense since the 1997 team (95 runs below average). On a team level, where did this offensive dropoff come from? Let's go position-by-position:

Notes: Batting runs are the "Batting" stat from fangraphs, which are park-adjusted for us, and include all players at each position on the '08 and '09 Reds teams. Players playing multiple positions had their offenses pro-rated based on innings played at each position.

The Reds had a nice uptick at 1B and 2B thanks to improved offensive seasons by both Votto and Phillips. But there were major dropoffs in offense at 3B, SS, and LF. 3B was largely due to the massive underperformance of (and injury to) Encarnacion and subsequent powerless debut by Scott Rolen. At SS and LF, the story is a bit more nuanced. The Reds had guys who were essentially playing out of position at those positions in 2008 (Dunn, Hairston, Keppinger), but in 2009 were replaced by guys who didn't hit as well but contributed significantly better fielding (Janish, Dickerson, etc). Also, given how much time Paul Bako got in 2008, I was surprised to not see better offense from our catchers. But then I looked again at the 2009 catchers' hitting stats and it all made sense again. More on the individual players below.

For the individual player stats, there are a few flourishes that distinguishes what follows from what you'll find at Fangraphs, for example (which is my primary data source). First, everything's park adjusted. This is a big deal for Cincinnati, which is a moderate hitter's park (5 year regressed park factor has climbed to 1.04!). Second, the last three columns include not only the hitting information, but also full baserunning info from BPro. This includes not only stolen bases, but also things like advancing 1st to 3rd on a single.

Here are all individual Reds player performances for 2009. The table is sortable if you click in the header. I've italicized pitchers to make it easier to ignore them if you wish to do so.

Name	PA	BB%	K%	GB%	LD%	FB%	EqBRR	BABIP	AVG	OBP	SLG	ISO	wOBA*	wRAA*	wRAR*
Joey Votto	544	13%	23%	39%	22%	39%	-0.3	0.372	0.322	0.414	0.567	0.245	0.411	38.3	52.7
Brandon Phillips	644	7%	13%	50%	17%	33%	3.0	0.284	0.276	0.329	0.447	0.171	0.339	5.3	22.3
Jonny Gomes	314	9%	30%	34%	20%	46%	-0.1	0.309	0.267	0.338	0.541	0.274	0.367	10.1	18.4
Jay Bruce	387	10%	22%	39%	13%	49%	0.0	0.221	0.223	0.303	0.470	0.247	0.324	-2.1	8.1
Chris Dickerson	299	13%	26%	50%	22%	29%	-1.9	0.360	0.275	0.370	0.373	0.098	0.325	-1.2	6.7
Laynce Nix	337	7%	26%	38%	20%	43%	1.1	0.272	0.239	0.291	0.476	0.237	0.321	-2.7	6.2
Wladimir Balentien	125	12%	25%	47%	18%	35%	0.5	0.325	0.264	0.352	0.427	0.163	0.345	1.6	4.9
Drew Stubbs	196	8%	27%	42%	21%	37%	-1.3	0.325	0.267	0.323	0.439	0.172	0.328	-0.4	4.8
Juan Francisco	25	13%	33%	57%	29%	14%	0.3	0.615	0.429	0.520	0.619	0.190	0.503	3.8	4.4
Scott Rolen	162	12%	15%	46%	16%	38%	-1.5	0.291	0.270	0.364	0.401	0.131	0.325	-0.7	3.6
Micah Owings	58	2%	35%	43%	17%	40%	-0.1	0.333	0.259	0.281	0.537	0.278	0.333	0.2	1.7
Darnell McDonald	111	5%	30%	47%	18%	35%	0.7	0.361	0.267	0.306	0.400	0.133	0.312	-1.8	1.2
Jerry Hairston	340	6%	15%	34%	24%	42%	-0.5	0.273	0.254	0.305	0.397	0.143	0.303	-8.1	0.9
Kevin Barker	36	9%	28%	54%	25%	21%	-0.1	0.375	0.281	0.333	0.375	0.094	0.292	-1.2	-0.2
Daniel Herrera	4	33%	50%	100%	0%	0%	0.0	0.000	0.000	0.333	0.000	0.000	0.229	-0.4	-0.2
Arthur Rhodes	1	0%	100%	0%	0%	0%	0.0	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	-0.006	-0.3	-0.3
Jared Burton	1	0%	100%	0%	0%	0%	0.0	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	-0.006	-0.3	-0.3
Nick Masset	1	0%	100%	0%	0%	0%	0.0	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	-0.006	-0.3	-0.3
Ramon Ramirez	1	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0.0	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	-0.006	-0.3	-0.3
Carlos Fisher	1	0%	100%	0%	0%	0%	0.0	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	-0.006	-0.3	-0.3
Ryan Hanigan	293	13%	12%	48%	24%	27%	-1.4	0.289	0.263	0.361	0.331	0.068	0.298	-8.2	-0.5
Matt Maloney	15	8%	42%	86%	14%	0%	0.1	0.429	0.250	0.308	0.250	0.000	0.262	-0.9	-0.5
Mike Lincoln	2	0%	100%	0%	0%	0%	0.0	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	-0.006	-0.6	-0.5
Edwin Encarnacion	165	15%	27%	41%	14%	46%	-2.8	0.250	0.209	0.333	0.374	0.165	0.295	-5.1	-0.7
Drew Sutton	76	10%	30%	37%	19%	44%	-0.6	0.289	0.212	0.297	0.348	0.136	0.280	-3.3	-1.3
Ramon Hernandez	331	10%	12%	49%	19%	32%	-3.1	0.274	0.258	0.336	0.362	0.104	0.295	-10.1	-1.3
Danny Richar	9	11%	13%	57%	14%	29%	-1.3	0.286	0.250	0.333	0.250	0.000	0.105	-1.8	-1.5
Kip Wells	16	0%	36%	67%	33%	0%	0.2	0.143	0.091	0.091	0.091	0.000	0.090	-3.3	-2.9
Corky Miller	69	14%	25%	28%	21%	51%	-0.5	0.214	0.179	0.299	0.250	0.071	0.247	-5.0	-3.2
Edinson Volquez	19	0%	50%	75%	13%	13%	0.0	0.125	0.063	0.063	0.063	0.000	0.050	-4.6	-4.1
Adam Rosales	266	10%	20%	45%	16%	40%	0.3	0.246	0.213	0.303	0.317	0.104	0.278	-12.0	-5.0
Justin Lehr	28	4%	36%	77%	8%	15%	-0.7	0.143	0.091	0.130	0.136	0.045	0.090	-5.9	-5.1
Craig Tatum	77	9%	15%	45%	12%	43%	0.1	0.175	0.162	0.250	0.221	0.059	0.213	-7.8	-5.8
Paul Janish	292	9%	16%	37%	19%	44%	0.7	0.247	0.211	0.296	0.305	0.094	0.271	-14.9	-7.2
Aaron Harang	54	2%	26%	74%	9%	18%	-1.4	0.176	0.149	0.167	0.234	0.085	0.141	-8.9	-7.5
Johnny Cueto	59	6%	37%	74%	4%	22%	0.2	0.207	0.130	0.184	0.130	0.000	0.151	-9.2	-7.6
Homer Bailey	43	0%	45%	75%	10%	15%	-0.1	0.143	0.079	0.079	0.079	0.000	0.062	-10.0	-8.9
Bronson Arroyo	76	0%	44%	35%	21%	45%	-0.3	0.200	0.113	0.113	0.161	0.048	0.108	-14.7	-12.7
Willy Taveras	437	4%	14%	47%	17%	36%	3.6	0.277	0.240	0.275	0.285	0.045	0.259	-26.9	-15.4
Alex Gonzalez	270	6%	15%	36%	18%	46%	-1.4	0.231	0.210	0.258	0.296	0.086	0.229	-23.7	-16.6

Table notes: Most stats were pulled or calculated from those at FanGraphs. Most should be self-explanatory. EqBRR is Dan Fox's baserunning stat from Baseball Prospectus. wOBA* is an all-encompassing offensive stat read on the same scale as OBP. It is based on wOBA listed at fangraphs, but then park adjusted and further adjusted to include EqBRR baserunning information. wRAA* is runs above average, based on wOBA*, and so is park adjusted and includes EqBRR. wRAR* is based on wRAA*, plus a 2.0 wins/700 PA modifier (the difference between an average hitter and a replacement hitter). wRAR* does not consider position--that includes pitchers! We will apply position adjustments when calculating win values in a subsequent post.

Joey Votto is the clear winner of the best offensive player award, despite missed time due to illness. The guy just had an incredible season. His 0.372 BABIP is a source of concern, however--that's almost certainly the result of some good luck, which will (at least) pull down his on-base stats. But he doesn't have to have an 0.372 to be a fine hitter. I'll happily take his CHONE projection in 2010 and every year thereafter...though, maybe with a few more PA's.

The often maligned (at least in the blogosphere) Brandon Phillips comes in as the second most valuable hitter, at least relative to replacement level. Yes, he's a free swinger, and yes, he's misplaced hitting 4th on a team. But he's proven to be an extremely durable, consistent hitter with good power and the ability to add to value with his baserunning game. He, along with Taveras, contributed the most on the basepaths this year (+3 runs overall).

Jonny Gomes comes in third, and I'm sure this is why so many are enthusiastic about re-signing him (despite his fielding problems). His 0.274 ISO was the highest of any hitter on the team, and second only to the incomparable Micah Owings.

But from here, we just drop off a cliff. I find it flat-out shocking that only three hitters crossed the 10 RAR plateau on this Reds team. In 2008, we had seven players top that plateau, with Jay Bruce essentially #8. There just wasn't much good hitting talent--or at least good hitting performance--on the team this year. In contrast, we had five hitters at least 5 runs below replacement level (Rosales, Tatum, Janish, Taveras, and Gonzalez; this is offense only). Now, some of that was made up for with glovework. But even so, this is a miserable offense. All I can say is thank goodness for Joey Votto. Can you imagine what this team would have been like without him?

A few other hitters of interest. I've read a lot of optimisim about Jay Bruce, with many pointing to his 0.221 BABIP as something that won't happen next season. I hope they're right, and I was glad to see the power there from him, but I worry about his line drive %. Those things can fluctuate, and Bruce is young and tremendously talented. But a bust-out season next year isn't guaranteed from where I sit......Micah Owings lived up to his reputation and had a terrific year at the plate for a pitcher, often serving as our top right-handed pinch hitter. And keep in mind the pinch hitting is measurably more difficult that hitting when you're already in the game, so Owings is probably better than he showed. He didn't walk much, and I wonder if that eventually will catch up to him as pitchers learn to exploit his weaknesses.....Drew Stubbs showed surprising power in his September call-up, but his on-base skills weren't as evident, walking only 8% of the time. There was some talk that he'd modified his swing upon arriving in the big leagues, but I haven't seen confirmation of that and I'm skeptical. Honestly, I think he just got lucky. I have very little idea of what he'll hit next season.....Juan "El Nino Destructor" Francisco hit the crap out of the ball in his 25 PA's, even walking at a nice clip. But 0.615 BABIPs tend to decline, and I have almost zero confidence that he's actually big league ready.....Lowest walk rate by anyone on the team with more than 100 PA's? Our leadoff hitter, Willy Taveras. I kind of miss Norris Hopper.....How bad was Ramon Hernandez? And manning 1B when Votto was out, no less! I argued last spring that a combination of Hernandez and Hanigan would be a massive upgrade on last year's catching. As the graph at the top of the page shows, however, it wasn't. Not that Tatum or Miller helped much on that front.

Next time (probably after the holidays): Fielding, and combining fielding value with offensive value to get position player win values!

Farmers Only: Winter League Update and some notes

nycredsfan — Fri, 13 Nov 2009 19:00:45 -0000

Chris Heisey loves the Arizona air. Does that bode will for his chances in spring training?

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Many of you thought the Arizona Fall League ended with the "Rising Stars" game last weekend, but it actually goes until the end of next week, and our boys in 'zona have just kept on representin'. This list isn't exhaustive, I've only put up stats, through yesterday, of the players of interest playing in fall/winter leagues. (If you really want to know how Lew Ford is doing in Venezuela you can look it up)

Arizona Fall League	PA	Avg	OBP	SLG	HR	BB	K
Yonder Alonso	75	.290	.333	.406	2	6	8
Chris Heisey	88	.308	.400	.641	5	10	20
Zack Cozart	55	.340	.393	.560	2	5	9
Venezuelan Winter League
Danny Dorn	60	.250	.400	.500	4	8	14
Miguel Rojas	57	.288	.345	.346	0	5	10
Dominican Winter League
Juan Francisco	76	.227	.325	.455	3	10	20
Kevin Barker	84	.329	.409	.421	1	8	15
Mexican League
Adam Rosales	128	.300	.400	.427	2	18	11
Arizona Pitchers	IP	ERA	K	BB	H	HR	AVG
Mike Leake	11.2	2.31	9	2	17	0	.340
Brad Boxberger	11.1	8.74	11	6	12	2	.286
Sean Watson	10.2	8.44	12	6	20	2	.377
Logan Ondrusek	9.2	10.24	8	1	19	4	.388

Dominican League
Ben Jukich	15.2	2.87	12	5	20	1	.323
Enerio Del Rosario	11.2	2.31	6	2	10	0	.222
Sam LeCure	7.1	8.59	6	5	12	0	.353

Zack Cozart hasn't been in a game since last week and isn't listed on the Peoria Saguaros roster anymore. I can't tell if he's injured or just decided he wanted to go home.
Todd Frazier starts play in the Puerto Rican League next week. I'm giddy.
Please note the K/BB ratio for Francisco. I know it's only the DWL, but the kid is showing signs of being able to take a walk.
I'm really intrigued by Del Rosario. He flew up through the system this season, and ended the year in AAA. His groundball to flyball ratio was 3.23 during the season and is 2.22 in the DWL. Sounds like a good fit for GABP.
It's still a small sample size, but Chris Heisey keeps making a case for himself.
Darnell McDonald is tearin' up Mexico too, but since he's not on the 40 man roster anymore I didn't feel compelled to include him. Katie Couric is happy about this.

Red Reposter - Sorry I Haven't Done One of These in a While, but My Hamstring Has Been Sore

Charlie Scrabbles — Wed, 04 Nov 2009 12:15:11 -0000

by Keith Srakocic - AP

Brandon Phillips has been one of the best defenders in the league over the past 3 seasons, and he's looked mighty handsome doing it.

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The Fay has more Q's and A's
"Q, from CSA: If the Reds are so poor, why did they spend $10 million on a new scoreboard and another $10 million on the worst available manager? Not to mention all that money on Scot Rolen (that was a good deal BTW). Not to mention Willy Tavaras.

A: The hope is that the new scoreboard will pay for itself through increased advertising at the stadium. Which is a nice theory, but you’ve got to draw fans to keep rates up. Only 26 managers in the history of the game have won more games that Dusty Baker. Given the injuries and payroll, 78-84 was pretty good this year. Rolen’s salary was paid by Toronto this year. And they made a huge mistake with Taveras. But he only made $2 million this year."

I have no idea how this injury excuse has gotten any traction as a plausible reason why this team failed this past season. I would like someone, anyone, to make a good argument that this team lost because of injuries. Please.
RedsFest tickets went on sale yesterday
$15 for adults and $7 for the kiddos. "Over 50 current and former Reds players are expected to attend including Brandon Phillips, Jay Bruce, Joey Votto, Bronson Arroyo, Dusty Baker and 2010 Reds Hall of Fame inductees Chris Sabo and Pedro Borbon. In honor of the recent RR Monday Morning Quiz, a special 20th anniversary tribute to the 1990 World Series Champions will include Sabo, Joe Oliver, Eric Davis, Ron Oester, Hal Morris, skipper Lou Piniella and many more."
Hall o' Famer Hal says Dick Pole was a victim of soap opera-level revenge and acrimony
"One problem with the Reds is that CEO Bob Castellini listens to too many people and some of them have axes to grind or let personalities sway their opinions. One of them got Castellini’s ear about Pole and Pole was axed (pole-axed?). A manager and a coach is only as good as his players/pitchers and I saw improvement from the Reds pitching staff under Pole."
Project Prospect is ranking the best prospects by position in the minors
and Todd Frazier is the top 2B. They say he lacks the range to be a great defender, but his bat could more than carry him. I think his bat is about average as a LF, but if he can hold his own as a 2B he could be something special. If only our incumbent 2B could play SS...

Mike Leake and Zach Stewart (cough) make the pitcher's list, Yonder Alonso is 2nd on the 1B list, and Juan Francisco is 13th on the 3B list. Hat tip to RML.
The Pirates traded for displaced Rays 2B Akinori Iwamura
or as Tim McCarver knows him, "Aka...Akamura". Iwamura was hurt most of this season and lost his job to Ben Zobrist. This deal reminds me a lot of the Reds' deal for Scott Rolen, accept that I like this for the Buccos. Neither team is close to playoff contention, both of the players are in the last year of their contract, and both players are still valuable relative to their contracts.

The key differences are that the Pirates only gave up Jesse Chavez, a 26-year-old relief prospect (Josh Roenicke?), and they have plenty of payroll space left after adding his contract (his option, which the Pirates still have to pick up, is worth $4.85 mil, which will make him the highest-paid Pirate!!). Iwamura isnt going to make the difference for the Pirates, but he'll help them take the next step to respectability.

And when you consider that Iwamura is basically the same player as Freddy Sanchez, whom they traded for a good pitching prospect in Tim Alderson, and is signed for 1/3 the money that Sanchez is, then this is really quite a move for the Pirates. I cant believe I'm saying this, but I'm kinda jealous.
FanGraphs is working on putting together 3-year UZR leaderboards and loserboards
and Brandon Phillips narrowly misses making the "best" list, falling just outside the top 5. We'll see the top and bottom 5's over the next few days.
It’s the Hardball Times 2010 Annual
I've never bought the THT Annual, but I'm thinking about it this year. It's $21.95, so it's pretty reasonably priced. Has anyone picked up one of these? Is it a good investment?

The Farmies, part 2

nycredsfan — Thu, 15 Oct 2009 17:00:28 -0000

No, it's the FarMIES...but they're all welcome anyway

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Welcome to day two of the Farmies. Yesterday brought us some major power, defense, and rising prospects. Today we celebrate the real cream of the crop of the Reds minor league system.

Comeback Player of the Year

Homer Bailey

Let's review:

2007-Bailey makes his debut to delirious fan support and is anointed the Great Hope. He proceeds to struggle a bit the rest of the year.

2008-He's beaten out for a rotation spot by Johnny Cueto and has a very rough year between AAA and the bigs. In the offseason he almost gets traded straight up for Jermaine Dye.

2009-He learns a bit of humility, a bit of control, and the split-finger and dominates AAA. He comes up to Cincinnati and has a positively Arroyo-like end to the season. His last 9 starts he goes 6-1 with a 1.70 ERA, striking out 53 in 58 innings and holding opponents to a .631 OPS against.

Last offseason many had given up on him. As of this minute he might be our second best starter. Welcome, GoodHomer. We hope you're here to stay.

Honorable Mention:

This goes to Justin Lehr for two reasons: 1) He was pitching in Korea last year, and this year posted a 2.51 ERA and .89 WHIP in 75 AAA innings, and 2) Teaching Homer the splitter. Big ups, Justin. I wish you the best of luck, just not with the Cincinnati Reds.

2010 Breakout Candidate

Devin Mesoraco

Wait a minute, you say. How do you give it to a guy who hit .228 in high-A this season? Here's why: His BB rate, LD% and ISO all improved dramatically, and his average was weighed down by a .276 BABIP despite the high line drive rate. AND he was only 20/21 playing in the FSL, which makes everyone not named Jay Bruce look bad the first time round. Minorleaguesplits.com's luck factor says he should've put up a line of .279/.356/.452. I'd take that from my catcher. Most importantly, perhaps, his defense behind the plate is reported to be much improved. Next year will be his 3^rd full pro season, and I could see him cruising through Carolina and being a late season call-up to AAA, with people debating whether to make him or Ramon Hernandez the starter in 2011.

Honorable Mention:

Juan Duran-Next year you can start to judge him by his stats, which I'm guessing will be much better.

Minor League Manager of the Year

Rick Sweet

Last year's IL manager of the year is this year's RR Manager of the Year. I can't imagine how hard it is to manage a AAA team with so much personnel change during a season, but Sweet kept the Bats rolling all year to an 84-58 record and the organization's only playoff berth. He owns a 387-330 record in 5 seasons as the Bats manager. The Reds record over that span is 377-433. Draw your own conclusions.

Honorable Mention

Joe Ayrault-Do you have any idea which team he manages? Didn't think so. His team was terrible, but I thought he deserved a little love anyway. His Wikipedia page has a couple fun facts.

Minor League Hitter of the Year

Juan Francisco

.296/.328/.523, 29 HR, 32 doubles, 93 RBI. Would you take that line from your third baseman? How about your left fielder? That's the line El Nino Destructor put up over two levels (AA-AAA) this season. You can talk all you want about walks and strikeouts, E.N.D. won't listen. He crushed AA as a 21 year old, turned 22, decided he was a man amongst boys, and proceeded to own AAA. Then, when called up to the big club in September, as the team's youngest player (2 months younger than Bruce), he put up an OPS of 1.139 in 25 plate appearances. In that short time he was worth .5 WAR, which was more than Willy Taveras, Alex Gonzalez, Edwin Encarnacion, Adam Rosales, Darnell McDonald, and Drew Sutton, and equaled the value of Jerry Hairston Jr. and Ramon Hernandez......ROAR.

(Thanks to BubbaFan for the amazingly awesome pic)

Honorable Mention:

Always a bridesmaid but never a bride, Chris Heisey had this award wrapped up in late June, scuffled a bit in AAA, but still put together a good campaign. He was pipped at the post by Francisco's August and September. Final line-.319/.386/.523

Todd Frazier had another very, very solid season. If you like walks (I gaze into their eyes at night) it was tempting to give him this award. Final line-.292/.353/.474

Minor League Pitcher of the Year

Travis Wood

This one's a no brainer. Over two levels (AA-AAA) Wood posted a 13-5 record. He must be good right? In addition to the all-important W-L record, Wood sported a 7.15 K/9 rate and lowered his BB/9 rate to 2.86, by far his best rate in 4 professional seasons. These two solid peripherals, combined with a low BABIP, meant that his WHIP was a sparkling 1.04. Oh, and he only gave up 6 homers all year in 176 IP. Yes, but wasn't he supported by good defenses in Carolina and Louisville? Perhaps, but his FIP was a very solid 3.28. Did I mention the kid is only 22? Stop your arguing, the kid can pitch.

Honorable Mention:

Zach (sniff, sniff) Stewart

Justin Lehr had a great year in Louisville, and taught Homer that splitter. If he had any prospect value he'd be on stage crying and thanking his agent right now.

That's all, folks. Thanks for joining us tonight, don't forget to tip your waiters, and we'll see you again next year.

Farmer's Only: The Farmies!!!

nycredsfan — Wed, 14 Oct 2009 14:51:39 -0000

The Beckhams love the Farmies!

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It's that time of year again! That's right, time for everyone's favorite minor league awards, the (1st annual) Farmie Awards! We'll be presenting awards for outstanding performances in the Reds minor league system during the 2009 season. We'll present the awards over two days. Today are the smaller awards (think Art Direction and Makeup Design). Tomorrow we'll get into the major prizes. As with any awards show, there will be awkward acceptance speeches, terrible clothes, and controversial winners. That's where you come in. Let me know why my picks are wrong and who the award should've gone to.

Hope you enjoy!

The Chernobyl Award: Most Explosive Power

Juan Francisco

He's averaged 25 homers and 29 doubles a year in his first 3 full pro seasons. His ISO and OPS have gone up each of those 3 seasons as well. And he's only 22 and will keep getting stronger......now about those walks.

Honorable Mention:

Nobody in the Reds system is in his league right now.

The Bizarro Big Donkey Award: Best Outfield Defense

Drew Stubbs

We got to see a taste of his defensive deliciousness over the last month and a half of the season. He was worth 7.7 runs in his short time in Cincy, and he was just continuing the magic he displayed with Louisville this season. TotalZone rated him as worth 33 Runs per 150 games for L'Ville this year. We all know it's an imperfect metric, but that's still ridiculously good. Oh, and he was voted best outfield defense, best outfield arm, and best baserunner in the International League this season. He can flat out defend.

Honorable Mention:

Chris Heisey plays a solid CF and is good on either corner.

Yorman Rodriguez is still very raw, but word is he has a rocket arm and can cover some major ground in CF.

The Maňos Del Oro Award: Best Infield Defense

Zack Cozart

Ignore all of the errors. Cozart is a slick fielder with good range and a strong arm. Some have compared him favorably to Janish, only with (hopefully) a better bat.

Honorable Mention:

Miguel Rojas-Also a good fielding SS, but until he passes Cozart on the depth chart he'll play second fiddle.

The Jeffersons Award: Movin’ On Up Fastest Through the System

Matt Klinker

Klinker, a graduate of Lakota West High School (gooooooo Firebirds!), was drafted in the 15^th round of the 2007 draft out of Furman University. He toiled mostly in Dayton last year as a 23 year old, and his prospect status was marginal. This year, however, after struggling a bit through 9 starts in Sarasota, he was promoted to Carolina where he made just 6 more starts before being promoted again to Louisville where he got 5 starts before suffering a season ending injury. He performed better with each successive promotion, striking out over a batter per inning in AAA, and could potentially be in the #5 starter conversation in the spring. Not bad for a 15^th round pick just 2 years out of college.

Honorable Mention:

23 year old groundball machine Enerio Del Rosario started the year in Sarasota as well, and finished on Louisville’s playoff roster. He has great control and almost 70% of balls in play against him were groundballs. Sounds like a good fit for GABP and our infield defense. He has an outside chance of starting next year in the Reds ‘pen.

Yorman Rodriguez…..a 16 year old in Billings? That’s craaaaaazy. If he even sniffs Dayton next year he’ll be a lock for this award in 2010.

Need to add Logan Ondrusek here. BK pointed out his somewhat meteoric rise through the system this year, earning a spot in the AFL. Plus, dude's gigantic, I'd hate to make him angry.

The WorldCom Award: Greatest Prospect Stock Plummet

Kyle Lotzkar

The Canuck with the Hammer Curve dominated low-A as an 18 year old in 2008, striking out almost 12 batters per nine innings. He was given the honor of being Red Reporter's #7 prospect last year. Doug Gray rated him #8 in the system and said he had #1 starter potential. Due to an elbow fracture that still hasn't fully healed, there are serious questions about whether he'll ever pitch again, let alone be an ace.

Honorable Mention:

Last year at this time some thought Chris Valaika would be in Cincinnati by now, but injuries and a terrible April through July has hindered his progress. He's still got value as a prospect, but given his somewhat limited defensive capabilities and questions with the bat, he's far from a sure bet now.

The Google Award: Greatest Prospect Stock Gain

Travis Wood

Selected in the 2^nd round out of high school in 2005, Wood has always carried the label of "prospect," but his first 4 professional seasons were characterized by allowing too many baserunners. This year, his age 22 season, something clicked. His BB/9 went from 4.78 last year to 2.86 this year. His average against went from .264 last year to .207 this year. This caused his Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) to go from 4.66 to 3.28. Last year he didn't make the RR Community Rankings top 15, and Doug Gray listed him as the Reds 28^th best prospect. I'm guessing he'll be on everyone's top 10 list this year.

Honorable Mention:

Chris Heisey was Doug's 23^rd best prospect this year and will probably make all Reds top 10 lists this year. If he hadn't struggled a bit in AAA he would have easily won this award. As it is, he's still got a bit more to show to be considered more than a 4^th OF at the major league level.

Zack Cozart, like Heisey, would've won this award in another year. He showed improved power and plate discipline this year to go with what might be the best SS defense in the minor league system.

That's a mistranslation of the Bible. Jesus actually wore a Carpenter jersey. Reds lose 13-0.

Brendanukkah — Thu, 01 Oct 2009 20:44:14 -0000

More photos » by Al Behrman - AP

Laugh it up, chucklehead. (AP Photo/Al Behrman)

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Joe Nuxhall Memorial Honorary Star of the Game

Chris Carpenter. Not only did Carpenter pitch five innings of shutout ball, not only did he allow a mere three hits, not only did he strike out six, but he also went 2-3 with 6 RBI, including a grand slam. Albert who?!

Key Plays

Kip Wells pitched a scoreless first inning.
Chris Carpenter hit a grand slam in the second. That's about as key a play as there is. When you give up a home run to the pitcher, it's bad. When it's his first home run of his career, it's bad. When it's with the bases loaded, it's bad.
Kip Wells gave up five runs, Micah Owings gave up four runs, Carlos Fisher gave up three runs, and li'l Danny Ray Herrera only gave up the one.

via www.fangraphs.com

Other Notes

After some whinging by the Cardinals after their loss last night, a beanball fest seemed inevitable. Scott Rolen and Juan Francisco got plunked for the good guys, while Kip Wells hit Brendan Ryan, one of the few Cardinals not hitting Kip Wells.
The last Cardinals pitcher to hit a grand slam was Kent Mercker in 1998.
The Reds only had five hits, but Adam Rosales had two of them. Their only extra base hit came courtesy of Micah Owings.
El Nino Destructor has a .500 OBP. Sustainability, schmustainability, that's just fun!
Chris Carpenter is really good when it comes to facing the Reds. Entering this game, he had a 0.846 WHIP against them, the second lowest of any team he's faced more than once. And now, it's a little bit closer to the 0.838 he has against Tampa Bay.

Reds finally decide to start their season, dismantle the Astros 10-4

BK — Sat, 26 Sep 2009 04:24:37 -0000

More photos » by Pat Sullivan - AP

You want a shot at the rotation next year? You're going through this man. (AP Photo/Pat Sullivan)

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Joe Nuxhall Memorial Honorary Star of the Game

Matt Maloney, of course. Matty went 7 strong innings, giving up only 2 runs on 6 hits, and walked nobody. He struck out 4, and probably could have gone another inning, since he was only at 93 pitches and had an 8-run lead, but Dusty yanked him in favor of unproven bullpenners.

Key Plays

Joey Votto struck early for the good guys, hitting his 23rd home run of the season to give the Reds a 1-0 lead.
The Reds broke out in the 2nd for 5 runs in the 2nd, and ended up chasing former Red Brian Moehler (remember that?) out of the game in the 3rd, giving the Reds a 7-1 lead.
Jay Bruce's solo shot in the 5th and Wladimir Balentien's 2-run single in the 6th gave the Reds 10 runs, and free wings for Astros fans.
After Maloney left after the 7th, Pedro Viola gave up 2 runs in the 8th. That was pretty much the game.

via www.fangraphs.com

Other Notes

Matt Maloney put together another great start, and is now firmly in the conversation for the 5th starter spot next year. If he keeps pitching like he did today, he's got my vote. His ERA is 2.65 over his last 3 starts, and he put together his longest outing of the year this evening. Also, he's only walked 1 batter in those 3 starts.
The Reds 17 hits was the second highest total of the season, one less than the 18 they had in Arizona and it ties the 17 they had in Milwaukee.
6 Reds players had multiple hits, including a 3-for-5 night from Juan Francisco, who filled in for Scott Rolen, who was a late scratch. The other 5 were all names we should all start getting used to, in Drew Stubbs, Paul Janish, Joey Votto, Jay Bruce, and My Wladdy Balentien. Speaking for myself, it feels pretty good to see all those guys performing well on the same night.
Jo-eh drove in 4 of the Reds 10 runs.
All 9 of the Reds starters had at least one hit.
Jared Burton pitched a perfect 9th. This is a good sign, I think.
Reds win their 5th game in a row, and 9 of the last 11. Too bad the season doesn't start in September.
Rick Sweet was in uniform in the dugout as well. You may remember him as the manager who took Louisville to the playoffs this year.

Turns out 5 days is one too many. Reds blow lead in the 9th and lose 4-3.

Slyde — Sat, 19 Sep 2009 02:33:12 -0000

More photos » by David Kohl - AP

Hit the showers, Coco. I guess we should be happy that it took so long for the Reds to lose a game that they led going into the 9th.

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Joe Nuxhall Memorial Honorary Star of the Game

Homer Bailey. 7 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 2 BB, 8 K. Seriously, who else should it be? Dude deserved the win.

Key Plays

With two outs in the 3rd inning, Drew Stubbs singled and stole 2nd base. Drew Sutton followed with a single to drive in Stubbs, which drew applause from the crowd.
Other than that, the game was quiet until the Reds 8th inning. Sutton led off the inning with a triple and the scored on a base hit by Joey Votto, giving the Reds a 2-0 lead.
Dusty Baker felt it wise to bring in Francisco Cordero for the 5th day in a row. Not surprisingly, it wasn't. Chris Coghlan led off the inning with a low line drive to left field that Wladimir Balentien lost in the lights, allowing Coghlan to reach first. After a Nick Johnson line out, Hanley Ramirez singled and Jorge Cantu doubled, scoring Coghlan. A ground out by Dan Uggla pushed the tying run across the plate with 2 outs.
The bleeding didn't stop though. John Baker singled to drive in Cantu. Cody Ross followed with another bloop single and Cordero's night was mercifully over. Brett Carroll doubled off of Jared Burton to drive in the 4th run of the inning, a run that ended up being the most important one.
Juan Francisco ate his first major league sized child with his first career home run in the 9th inning, but the Reds went meekly in the 9th after that as Kevin Barker and Jay Bruce both struck out and Drew Stubbs lined out to right field.

via FanGraphs

I hate graphs that look like that.

Other Notes

The loss is the first loss by the Reds this season in a game in which they took the lead into the 9th inning. They were previously 57-0 in those games.
The loss ended the Reds 8-game home winning streak and 4-game overall winning streak.
You can use vinegar and baking soda to get that musty smell out of towels. Don't use laundry detergent or fabric softener.
Juan Francisco is the 7th Reds player to hit his first major league home run this season. Name the other six.
The Reds reach 80 losses for the 9th consecutive season. They must win 13 of their last 14 to not have their 9th straight losing season.
This was Homer Bailey's 6th straight start with 114 or more pitches.