SB Nation - Chris Heisey

The NL Central Offseason Revue Pt. 2: The Red Menace

the red baron — Wed, 16 Dec 2009 16:35:23 -0000

Um, I think Jocketty is the one on the left.

I decided I'm going to try and do these in order from best to worst in the division; unfortunately, that now means I have to try and come up with preseason predictions before the offseason is even half over. Not a great idea on my part, really; I should have done them in alphabetical order or something. Oh, well. Too late for such considerations now, I suppose.

Of all the teams in the Central, perhaps none is so enigmatic as the Cincinnati Reds. Every spring for god knows how many years now we've heard the constant refrain, "Look out for the Reds this year. This is the year they finally turn that corner." Now, to be fair, we hear much the same thing about the Pirates, but predictions of Pittsburgh's rise are always couched not in terms of contention, but in terms of near-winning baseball. Thus, even as the predictions are made, our natural inclination toward Piratic indifference kicks in. The Reds, on the other hand, are a different story.

See, the thing about the Reds is this: they have some really, really good players. Players I would love to have on my team. They stole Brandon Phillips from their in-state rivals just a couple offseasons back, right from under the Cards' noses, even as Junior Spivey was busily reminding us not all reclamation projects end up reclaiming anything. Sometimes the ship stays sunk. (By the by, I'm proud to say I was one of the people hoping and advocating for the Cards to bring in Phillips. Sadly, our voices were not heard.) The Reds have some outstanding young arms. Their closer is one of the better ones in the business. (Still not worth his contract, but that's another issue entirely.) The right fielder is the guy the Cardinals really wanted in 2005; they chose Colby Rasmus specifically because he was the most similar player to Jay Bruce in the draft. There is some real talent here.

Yet somehow, year after year, those cries which warn us of the approaching Cincinnati domination always turn out to be wrong. Every year the Reds find some way not to win. It's gotten to the point I almost fear the offseason when no one cautions against the Reds; perhaps the spell will then be broken and this long-benighted franchise will step fully into the light. Or, perhaps not.

Either way, a little insurance can't possibly be a bad thing.

This is the year, folks. Watch out for the Reds.

Cincinnati Reds 2009 Record: 78-84, 13 games out of first

Pythagorean Record: 76-86 (673 runs scored, 723 allowed)

It was another disappointing year for the Reds, who came into the 2009 season with one of the most promising teams Cincinnati has seen in years. There was tons of optimism, and rightfully so; the Reds' rotation was immensely talented and young, just beginning to come into its own. Unfortunately, the struggles of youth and the injury bugbear combined to rob the Reds of their pitching bite, and the offense simply wasn't good enough to compensate.

Offense: After years of watching the Dunn/Griffey led Reds mash their way through the division while failing to hold anyone to less than seven runs per game, the 2009 Reds were a positively anemic change of pace. The Cardinals were not a particularly prolific offensive team, but the Reds made them look positively potent by comparison. (I'm feeling quite loquacious this morning, by the way. Does it show?) The Cardinals scored 730 runs, 57 more than the limp-lumbered lads from Cincy. Nearly six wins worth of offensive production is nothing to sneeze at.

While the Reds' problems at the platter in 2009 were legion, one can point to two areas in particular which acted as anchors around the necks of the Redlegs. On the one hand, you have the outfield. Then, on the other hand, you have the infield.

One of the more glaring issues for the Reds was the appallingly average sophomore slump of Jay Bruce, who followed up what was a very encouraging debut season with, essentially, the exact same performance. Not that that's the worst thing in the world, mind you; Bruce's OPS+ was 97 in '08 and 100 in '09, making him exactly league average, but this is Jay F. Bruce we're talking about here. He's young, yes, but you still don't expect him to be duking it out with Skip Schumaker for the title of Averagest HItter in all Baseballdom.

The good news, for Cincinnati fans at least, is this: Jay Bruce is still a better hitter than what he's shown in the majors. I feel completely confident in saying I still expect Bruce to be a star, given time to grow and better health. Unfortunately, I can't say the same for the rest of the Reds' outfield. This is, after all, a team which paid Willy Taveras actual, honest to god money to post a .559 OPS over the course of 400+ at-bats. Laynce Nix proved a source of superfluous Y's and steroid speculation, but little else. (Well, except against the Cardinals, that is.) He did put up an OPS+ of 98, but from a left fielder, you've got to expect a bit more thump. The lone real bright spot for the Reds was Johnny Gomes, who hit quite well in the Great American Bandbox, to the tune of an .879 OPS. Unfortunately, Johnny Gomes plays defense like Chris Duncan using an oven mitt. Still, beggars can't be choosers, I suppose.

On the infield, things were a bit more of a mixed bag. The right side of the Reds' gamut of grounder grabbers was brilliant, with Joey Votto establishing himself as a legitimate force (OPS of .981 for the season), and Brandon Phillips turning in another of his usual five-tool showcase performances. The left side of the infield, however, oy. Not so much. Paul Janish and Adam Rosales took the lion's shares of at-bats at shortstop and third base, respectively, and both posted OPS's in the low .600s. (Janish took the low .600s thing to the extreme, posting a .601.) Jerry Hairston played a fair amount at various positions all over the diamond and was a little better, though he still wasn't inspiring shock and awe in too many opposing pitchers.

Now that's the bad news. The good news (again, for Reds' fans), is that there will be different faces at several positions for 2010. Drew Stubbs, the Reds' uber-athletic Mike Cameron clone, came up late in the season and displayed a wide base of exciting tools in center field. Stubbs has speed, he has power, and he can go get it with the best of them in the field. The only thing holding him back is his tendency to take lots and lots of empty swings. Sort of a center field version of Tyler Greene.

The other big upgrade the Reds can count on is, of course, our old buddy Scott Rolen. Rolen came over from the Blue Jays in a midseason trade and played quite well for the Reds, hitting .270/.364/.401 and playing defense which was nearly Rolenesque. The Rolen of old is gone and he's never coming back, but the new model is still a substantial upgrade over what the Reds were trotting out most of the season.

Starting Pitching

What was supposed to be the biggest strength for the Reds ended up helping to drag them down. As the year opened, there were some touting the Reds' 1-2 rotation punch of Edinson Volquez and Johnny Cueto as the best in the National League, and perhaps one of the best in all of baseball. Sadly, Volquez succumbed to injury, having Tommy John surgery in early August, and Cueto seemed to take a step backward from his rookie campaign, even though he ended up with a lower ERA for the season. Cueto started off hot, then imploded in the late summer months, allowing an opponent's OPS of 1.026(!) in July and .938 in August. He did turn things around a bit at the end of the season, pitching better in September, but it wasn't enough to wash away the sins of the previous two months.

As strange as it sounds, Bronson Arroyo actually had sort of an okay year. Sort of. Kind of. He went 15-13, 3.84, gave up less hits than innings pitched (214 H in 220.1 IP), and struck out almost twice as many batters as he walked. Now, as to how he did it, I honestly have no idea. Every time I saw Arroyo, he was being yanked out of the game after giving up five runs in two and a third. He's basically Swamp Gas II: the Swampening at this point for me. Homer Bailey continued to frustrate those of us who believe prospect ranking should count for something, damn it, by not turning into Nolan Ryan, but there were positive signs. While his overall numerical profile doesn't inspire much confidence, Bailey did pitch extraordinarily well in September, going 4-1, 2.08 and striking out 42 batters in 43.1 innings while walking 19. Let's put it this way: if Walt or Dusty decide Homer's just not going to work out up there, I would be more than happpy to take him off their hands.

Elsewhere in the Reds' rotation, Aaron Harang was bad again, Micah Owings was a really good hitter, and Kip Wells gave Cincinnati a taste of the 2007 Cardinal magic.

The rotation could very well still be a strength in 2010 for the Reds. If Bailey really has turned a corner and Cueto can find a bit of his early-season magic after Memorial Day, Cincy could have a nice tandem atop the rotation. Add Volquez possibly returning for the stretch run, and that's an intriguing trio. And as much as it pains me to say it, you could probably do worse than Bronson Arroyo and the Harangutan for your 4th and 5th spots. (Then again, for what the Reds are paying those guys, they could also do miles better.)

Bullpen

And now we come to the real strength of the Cincinnati Reds: their bullpen. (I'll take 'Sentences I Never Expected to Speak' for $600, Alex.) After years of wandering in the desert, searching for relievers, the Reds seem to have finally found the guys to put the kibosh on any late-inning uprisings.

Francisco Cordero is not worth his contract. We'll just get that out of the way up front. Nonetheless, he's a very, very good pitcher even as he enters his mid 30s, posting a 2.16 ERA last season. He could fall off a cliff, but I don't think he will. I think we're just going to have to put up with him being good for the near future. Maybe we could get Spiezio to sober up and just pinch-hit during series with Cincinnati...

The biggest difference for the Reds between 2009 and past seasons was the emergence of Nick Masset and Danny Ray Herrera, the Screwball Kid himself, as legitimate setup men. In the past, even when the Reds had a player who could shut the door at the end of the game (remember when Todd Coffey looked like a good pitcher for like three months? Wasn't that weird?), there was nothing in the way of a bridge to get there. With Masset and Herrera, the Reds finally have that bridge.

The rest of the Redleg relief corps was solid but nothing spectacular. Arthur Rhodes was good, making me wish the Cardinals had more Rhodehouse and less Diner, but secondary LOOGY certainly isn't anything to get too very upset about.

Offseason Priorities

To be honest, I'm not sure how much Walt Jocketty and the rest of his communist cronies are going to be doing this offseason. The very same thing that makes the Reds such an intriguing team is the thing which makes them so difficult to improve. The Reds are a transitional team, and the opportunity cost of bringing in marginal upgrades may just prove to be a bit too steep. Add in the fact Cincinnati appears to have very little breathing room in terms of payroll, and I think it will likely be a relatively quiet offseason for Jocketty and Co.

The two big opportunities for the Reds to make upgrades are at shortstop and left field; unfortunately, upgrading at either of those spots is easier said than done this winter. The Reds lack the financial capacity to get into the bidding for either of the big LF prizes, Holliday or Jason Bay, and most of the other players available would represent a middling upgrade at best. The Reds have two players in their system, Todd Frazier and Chris Heisey, who both could see time in left in 2010. Frazier is a third baseman by trade, but earns his keep mostly with the bat, and could see outfield time a la Allen Craig just to get him into the lineup. Heisy is a speedy, plus-defense type with a line-drive swing and fair on-base skills. It wouldn't surprise me to see the Reds bring back Gomes as a LF/1B guy on days when Votto isn't playing and try to work one or both of Heisy/ Frazier in slowly with ABs in left.

Shortstop, on the other hand, might be a bit more interesting. There aren't a whole lot of guys out there, but there are a couple decent names. If the Reds were looking for an offensive upgrade, either Miguel Tejada or Felipe Lopez could offer a bat for a fair value. Of course, both have significant questions surrounding their abilities to play shortstop, but hey, I said offensive upgrade. If Cincinnati decided to go more for a defense-first guy, Orlando Cabrera can still pick it with the best of them. Regardless, I think shortstop is the most likely position to look toward if the Reds are going to make a move this offseason.

I'm sure Jocketty and Baker would like to pick up a more dependable arm for depth in the rotation, but I'm not sure they'll have the payroll to do so. The Reds are already paying Harang and Arroyo gobs of money; they may try to deal for an arm but I don't see a signing there. The bullpen actually needs the least help of all; they may sign a guy to replace Rhodes if he leaves or something like that, but I think the relief corps is largely set.

The Bottom Line

Do I think the Reds are going to be better than Milwaukee? I must, since I did them before the Brew Crew, right? The answer is a decided and unequivocal maybe. I think the Reds have the potential, certainly, to improve more than probably any other team in the division, simply based on their young talent base. I think the Brewers largely are who we think they are, a team of tremendous offensive talent and very, very limited pitching resources. The Reds, on the other hand, have a lot of untapped potential on both sides of the equation, and depending on how things break, they could vault up the standing in the Central or remain the same enigmatic bunch of underachievers they have been for years now.

I think the addition of Scott Rolen was a cataclysmically bad one, but, paradoxically, I also believe he'll make the Reds better in the coming season. He should provide just enough offense while helping the pitchers out significantly.

In the end, the success or failure of the Reds' 2010 season will likely have little to do with what, if any, moves Walt Jocketty makes this winter. Rather, the fate of the first season of the new decade (eat it, Matty!), will hinge largely on the three pillars upon which we've been told Cincinnati's new glory would be built for years: Homer Bailey, Jay Bruce, and Joey Votto. If those three are the players they were thought to be on the way up, the Reds could very well make some noise. If not, it could be another very long summer in the home of the world's shittiest chili.

The Baron's Playlist for the 16th of December, 2009: the Christmas Catalogue

(In no particular order, by the way)

"Fairytale of New York" - The Pogues
"Rockin' Around the Christmas Tree" - Brenda Lee (listen closely; she's actually saying fucking pie. Seriously.)
"You're All I Want for Christmas" - Brook Benton
"A Change at Christmas (Say it Isn't So)" - the Flaming Lips
"Merry Xmas Everybody" - Slade
"Jingle Bell Rock" - Bobby Helms (this is the song that will one day force me to pull to the side of the road and cry when my mother is gone)
"White Christmas" - The Drifters (sorry, but this one is way, way better than the Bing Crosby version)
"Happy Christmas (War is Over)" - John Lennon and Yoko Ono
"Blue Christmas" - Elvis Presley
"Happy Holidays" - Alabama (I really, really hate Alabama, but I loved this song when I was a kid listening to the old True Value Hardware Christmas records)
"We're Going to the Country!" - Sufjan Stevens
"Peace on Earth/ Little Drummer Boy" - David Bowie and Bing Crosby
"Marshmallow World" - Dean Martin
"God Rest Ye, Merry Gentlemen" - Nat King Cole (another True Value special)
"Frosty the Snowman" - The Ronettes
"Jingle Bells" - Glenn Miller
"I'll Be Home for Christmas" - Frank Sinatra
"I Want a Hippopotamus for Christmas" - Gayla Peevey
"Christmastime is Here" - The Vince Guaraldi Trio (sadly, this song underwent one of the worst remasters I believe I've ever heard just a couple years ago; find the old, unremastered version.)
"Christmas Wrapping" - the Waitresses (this song is utter crap. I fucking love it.)

I'm going to stop at 20. It's tough for me to do, but I'm going to do it.

Down on the Farm: Snippets from Baseball America's Top 10 Lists

raygu — Mon, 14 Dec 2009 14:00:29 -0000

It was a slow weekend of rumors after a week full of them, so I will post some more snippets from Baseball America's Top 10 lists. Yesterday, I posted snippets for some of the top prospects in the NL East. Today, I bring the NL Central including several Cincinnatti Reds and a future 40 HR power hitter. For thos of you who want to see some of your favorite prospects, you can head over to Youtube which has video of alot of prospects.

Todd Frazier, OF/3B, CIN

The Reds were planning to send Frazier to Puerto Rico for winter ball to continue his development as a second baseman, although a minor knee injury will likely derail those plans. If he shows he can be even adequate defensively, his bat would make him a valuable regular there. He may be a better fit at third base, where he projects as a solid hitter and defender. With Scott Rolen's contract expiring after 2010 and Brandon Phillips locked up through 2011, Frazier's initial big league opportunity would seem to more likely come at third base or left field. He'll head to Triple-A Louisville in 2010 for some final polish.

More after the jump:

Mike Leake, SP, CIN

Leake's feel for pitching and command are outstanding. He keeps hitters off balance by throwing five pitches (fastball, cutter, slider, curveball and changeup) for strikes. He can run his fastball up to 94 mph, but it's more effective when he pitches at 88-92 with better run and sink. His changeup is deceptive, and his curve and slider are two distinct breaking pitches that play well off each other. He fields his position like an extra infielder on the mound.

Chris Heisey, OF, CIN

Heisey could be termed a "cheap five-tool player." None of his tools is overwhelming, but all of them are at least fringe-average. At the plate, he uses the entire field and makes his living driving the ball back up the middle. He shows solid bat speed and surprising power, nearly equaling his previous career total with 22 homers in 2009. He's an above-average runner with instincts that enhance his speed, and he is 53-for-58 stealing bases in the past two years. He has a slightly above-average arm and makes accurate throws. He's a plus defender on the outfield corners.

Pedro Alvarez, 3B, PITT

Alvarez was playing so well by the end of the season that some scouts believe he's ready to step into Pittsburgh's Opening Day lineup for 2010. However, he'll begin the season at Triple-A Indianapolis and stay there until at least June to keep his arbitration and free agency clocks from starting. He should make an immediate impact and appears destined to become a big-time slugger for a franchise that hasn't had a 40-homer hitter since Willie Stargell in 1973. The only long-term question is what position Alvarez will play. If he keeps his weight in check, he'll be able to stay at third base. If not, he'll need to move across the diamond to first.

Jose Tabata, OF, PITT

Tabata has a compact stroke and hits line drives to all fields. He has sound strike-zone judgment for a young hitter. He has enough range to play a passable center field but is better suited for right, where he can show off his above-average arm. He has slightly above-average speed. Tabata will begin 2010 back in Triple-A but figures to be in the majors at some point during the season. He has the potential to be an all-star right fielder if his power develops.

Brett Lawrie, 2B, MILW

Lawrie will get to the big leagues quicker now than he would have as a catcher, but some scouts think he's destined for an outfield corner. He has a potent bat that should profile at just about any position. Though he jumped to Double-A Huntsville last summer to prepare for the World Cup, he could open 2010 in high Class A.

Fantasy Baseball: Profiling Yesterday's Non-Tenders

raygu — Sun, 13 Dec 2009 17:00:20 -0000

by Al Behrman - AP

2 months ago: Pittsburgh Pirates closer Matt Capps pitches against the Cincinnati Reds in the ninth inning of a baseball game, Friday, Oct. 2, 2009, in Cincinnati. Pittsburgh won the game 3-1. (AP Photo/Al Behrman)

View full size photo »

Yesterday was the last day that teams could offer contracts to their arbitration-eligible players, and there were some interesting non-tenders for sure. Let's take a look:

Matt Capp, CL, PITT

The Pirates will now go into spring training looking for a closer, unless they veer off course and sign a free agent like Jose Valverde, Mike Gonzalez, Fernando Rodney, or Kevin Gregg. They also could dangle Andy Laroche in a deal for a closer since they traded for Akinori Iwamura to play second base. That assumes that Pedro Alvarez wins the Pirates 3B job out of spring training, otherwise Laroche will be the Pirates 3Bman. Here is what MLB.com said about the Pirates closer situation:

In the meantime, the Pirates now have even more work to do to construct a bullpen that had already lost Jesse Chavez in an offseason trade. One thing the Pirates do seem confident in, though, is that their next closer could come in-house, as both Joel Hanrahan and Evan Meek are likely to garner consideration for the role.

I don't see either Hanrahan or Meek keeping the job. Capps Is coming off his worst year of his career as he ended the year with a 5.80 ERA. Could the Phillies take a chance on Capps to backup Lidge?

Jonny Gomes, OF, CIN

Gomes is coming off a season where he went 20-51-.267-.338-.541-.879. Gomes could be a nice pickup for a team that wants to platoon his vs. left-handed pitchers as he hit .307-.369-.545-.914 against lefties in 2009. In his career, Gomes has hit .274-.369-.517-.885 vs lefties.

it appears the Reds will go into spring training with an open competition in LF with Wladimir Balentein, Chris Dickerson, Chris Heisey and Todd Frazier vying for the spot.

Kelly Johnson, 2B, ATL

Johnson is coming off a down year where he lost the second base job to Martin Prado in Atlanta. He went 8-29-7-.229-.303-.389-.692 in 2009 after going 12-69-11-.287-.349-.446-.795 in 2008. Johnson's BABIP in 2009 was a very low .247, much lower than his career BABIP average of .311. There were some positives in his 2009 season, as he lowered his K% from 18.4% to 15.6% and increased his BB% from 8.5% to 9.3%.

Johnson could be a nice sleeper in 2009 should he land a second base job. If he can bring his BABIP close to .300 and continue to show improved plate discipline, he could have another season like he did in 2008. Do you hear me Ned?

Poll

Which player has a better chance at landing a starting job in 2010?

Baseball America's Top 10 Prospect Lists for 2010

raygu — Thu, 26 Nov 2009 18:00:18 -0000

We continue the Baseball America Top 10 Prospect lists for 2010 with the NL Central:

Cubs

1.	Starlin Castro, ss
2.	Brett Jackson, of
3.	Josh Vitters, 3b
4.	Andrew Cashner, rhp
5.	Jay Jackson, rhp
6.	Hak-Ju Lee, ss
7.	Logan Watkins, 2b
8.	Chris Carpenter, rhp
9.	Ryan Flaherty, ss/2b/3b
10.	D.J. LeMahieu, ss/2b

More after the jump:

Reds

1.	Todd Frazier, of/2b/3b
2.	Yonder Alonso, 1b
3.	Mike Leake, rhp
4.	Chris Heisey, of
5.	Juan Francisco, 3b
6.	Yorman Rodriguez, of
7.	Travis Wood, lhp
8.	Matt Maloney, lhp
9.	Brad Boxberger, rhp
10.	Zack Cozart, ss

Brewers

1. Alcides Escobar, ss

2. Brett Lawrie, 2b

3. Mat Gamel, 3b

4. Eric Arnett, rhp

5. Jonathan Lucroy, c

6. Kentrail Davis, of

7. Zach Braddock, lhp

8. Lorenzo Cain, of

9. Jake Odorizzi, rhp

10. Kyle Heckathorn, rhp

Astros

1. Jason Castro, c

2. Jiovanni Mier, ss

3. Jordan Lyles, rhp

4. Sammy Gervacio, rhp

5. Chia-Jen Lo, rhp

6. Ross Seaton, rhp

7. Tanner Bushue, rhp

8. Jay Austin, of

9. Jon Gaston, of

10. T.J. Steele, of

Pirates

1. Pedro Alvarez, 3b

2. Jose Tabata, of

3. Tony Sanchez, c

4. Brad Lincoln, rhp

5. Chase D'Arnaud, ss/2b

6. Starling Marte, of

7. Tim Alderson, rhp

8. Zack Von Rosenberg, rhp

9. Rudy Owens, lhp

10. Gorkys Hernandez, of

Cardinals

1. Shelby Miller	rhp
2. Jaime Garcia	lhp
3. Lance Lynn	rhp
4. Daryl Jones	of
5. David Freese	3b/1b
6. Eduardo Sanchez	rhp
7. Allen Craig	of/1b/3b
8. Blake Hawksworth	rhp
9. Daniel Descalso	2b
10. Robert Stock	c

Arizona Fall League: Slugfest Highlights Tuesday's Roundup

raygu — Wed, 18 Nov 2009 14:15:09 -0000

There were 39 runs and 39 hits in the game between the Javalinas and Saguaros on Tuesday afternoon with Mariners outfield prospect Dustin Ackley leading the way with 4 hits, 3 runs scored and 3 RBI.

Ackley was the Mariners first round pick in the June 2009 first year player draft and has a bright future with the Mariners. Here is what John Sickels from SB Nation's Minor League Ball site had to say about Ackley back in April, prior to the June draft:

Dustin Ackley, 1B-OF, North Carolina
Ackley is a pure hitter with developing power. Although playing first base this year, scouts say he has enough athleticism to play the outfield, perhaps even center field. He's hitting .395/.505/.716 for North Carolina, excellent numbers in context. His strike zone judgment is very good (34 walks, 20 strikeouts in 162 at-bats). He could go just about anywhere in the first round after Strasburg, depending on his bonus demands.

And here is what he had to say about him after seeing him in the AFL last week after the jump:

ackley

I liked Ackley’s bat a lot….everything he hit was hit very hard, even foul balls were hard. I think he’ll be a strong batting average/high OBP hitter, but perhaps with just 15 homer power.

Now let's get to the boxscores:

Dustin Ackley-4-6, 3 RS, 3 RBI (.323)

Jordin Danks-3-6, 2 RS, 2 2B, 2 RBI, BB, 2 K (.322)

Jonathan Lucroy-2-6, 2 RS, 2B, 3 K (.315)

Carlos Triunfel-2-5, 2 2B, 5 RBI (.233)

Lance Zawadzki-2-5, RS, 2 RBI, BB, 2 K (.305)

Chris Heisey-2-4, 2 rs, (.297)

Yonder Alonso-0-3, 2 RS, RBI, 2 BB, 2 K (.260)

Carlos Rivero-3-6, 2 RS, 4 RBI (.337)

Dirk Hogan-1-3, 2 RS, HR, 5 RBI (.208)

Ike Davis-2-5, 3 K (.333)

Nick Evans-1-4, 2 RS, HR, 2 RBI (.188)

Mike Moustakas-1-5, 2 RS, HR, 2 RBI (.268)

Starlin Castro-2-4, RS, 2 SB (9) (.387)

Ian Kennedy-5 Inn, 5 H, 1 ER, 5 K (4.25)

Andrew Cashner-3 Inn, 4 H, 3 R, 2 ER, 3 K (4.58)

Jemile Weeks-1-3, 2 BB (.250)

Josh Bell-1-5, 2B (.321)

Grant Desme-1-4 (.330)

Brandon Crawford-2-4, RS, 3b, 2 RBI (..299)

Jose Tabata-3-5, RBI, SB (4) (.355)

Domonic Brown-0-5, 3 K 9.239)

Thomas Neal-1-4 (.275)

Brandon Allen-0-3, RS, BB, K (.155)

Willin Rosario-4-4, RS, RBI (.294)

Arizona Fall League: Monday's Roundup

raygu — Tue, 17 Nov 2009 14:00:13 -0000

The AFL was back in action and the Nationals Danny Espinosa helped Phoenix win the East division title by driving in four runs on Monday.

If you have an ESPN Insider subscription, check out Jason Grey's article from Monday. Here is Grey on the Giant's prospect Thomas Neal:

Thomas Neal, San Francisco Giants: Was Neal's breakout season (.337, 22 homers, 1.010 OPS) in the hitting-friendly Cal League legit? I think it's possible, especially when I heard that his swing wasn't necessarily all the way back in 2008 after major shoulder surgery. I saw him during the year as well, and I've seen an improved approach at the plate. He's willing to go the other way, and his raw power allows him to hit the ball out to any field. Let's see how he does at Double-A. It's worth noting that Neal is playing some first base here as well.

You might also want to check out www.projectprospect.com as they are going through their top 15 prospects at each position, and have recently posted interviews with Domonic Brown and Buster Posey, with a few more on the way.

Let's take a look at how the top prospects performed after the jump:

Danny Espinosa, SS, WAS-3-4, RS, 3B, 4 RBI (.329)

Josh Bell, 3B, BAL-2-4, RS, 2B, HR, 3 RBI, BB, 2 K (.329)

Grant Desme, OF, OAK 0-3, RS, 2 BB, 3 K (.333)

Jemile Weeks, 2B, OAK-1-5, RS, 3B (.247)

Bryan Peterson, OF, FLA-0-5, RS (.398)

Starlin Castro, SS, CHC-1-4 (.382)

Casey Kelly, SS, BOS-0-4, 2 K (.212)

Ryan Kalish, OF, BOS-1-4, 2B (.303)

Chase D'arnaud, 2B, PITT-1-4, SB (9) (.284)

Thomas Neal, OF, SFG-1-2, BB, SB (10) (.277)

Domonic Brown, OF, PHI-0-2, BB, K (.250)

Brandon Allen, 1B, ARI-0-3 (.160)

Jose Tabata, OF, PITT-0-4 (.343)

Buster Posey, C, SFG 0-3 (.209)

Lance Zawadzki, SS, SDG-2-5, 2 RS, 2 RBI, SB (8), (.300)

Chris Heisey, OF, CIN-0-5, 3 K (.287)

Yonder Alonso, 1B, CIN-0-2, 3 BB, K (.270)

Matt McBride, C, CLE-3-4, RS, 2B, 2 RBI (.369)

Trayvon Robinson, OF, LAD01-4, RS, BB, 2 K (.243)

Dustin Ackley, OF, SEA-0-2, RS, 2 BB (.288)

Andrew Lambo, OF, LAD-1-4,. RS, K (.321)

Brandon Laird, 3B, NYY-3-3, RS, 2B, 2 BB (.337)

Ike Davis, 1B, NYM-2-4, 2 RBI, BB, K (.329)

Taylor Teagarden, C, TEX- 1-5, RBI, 3 K (.163)

Michael Dunn, RP, NYY-1 Inn, 2 H, 2 ER, BB, 4 K (3.86)

Arizona Fall League: Strasburg and Crow Dominate

raygu — Sun, 15 Nov 2009 14:00:34 -0000

by Lenny Ignelzi - AP

6 months ago: FILE - In this April 3, 2009, file photo, San Diego State pitcher Stephen Strasburg throws during a game in San Diego. The Washington Nationals selected Strasburg with the No. 1 overall pick in the baseball draft on Tuesday, June 9, 2009. (AP Photo/Lenny Ignelzi, File)

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Here's a look at Saturday's AFL action where the Nationals Stephen Strasburg returned to the bump and dominated once again.

Let's take a look after the jump:

Stephen Strasburg-3.2 Inn, H, 2 BB, 6 K, 4 W (4.26)

Aaron Crow-4 Inn, H, 4 K (5.87)

Chris Heisey, OF, CIN-0-4, 3 K (.305)

Yonder Alonso, 1B, CIN-0-3, BB (.278)

Josh Bell, 3B, BAL-1-3, BB, K (.305)

Grant Desme, OF, OAK-0-3, BB, K (.344)

Drew Storen, RP, WAS-2 Inn, 3 H, BB, 2 K (0.71) S (3)

Cole Gillespie, OF, ARI-2-4 (.328)

Domonic Brown, OF, PHI-0-4 (.255)

Thomas Neal 1B, SFG-1-4, SB (9) (.270)

Brandon Allen, 1B, ARI-1-4, RS, K (.165)

Brandon Crawford, 3B, SFG-1-4, HR, 2 RBI, 2 K (.286)

Reese Havens, SS, NYM-1-1, RS, RBI, 3 BB (.276)

Ike Davis, 1B, NYM-0-3, BB (.319)

Mike Moustakas, 3B, KC-2-4, RBI (.273)

Poll

Does Stephen Strasburg start the year in the majors or minors?

Opening Day starter

23 votes

Minors-called up by June

59 votes

82 votes | Poll has closed

Farmers Only: Winter League Update and some notes

nycredsfan — Fri, 13 Nov 2009 19:00:45 -0000

Chris Heisey loves the Arizona air. Does that bode will for his chances in spring training?

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Many of you thought the Arizona Fall League ended with the "Rising Stars" game last weekend, but it actually goes until the end of next week, and our boys in 'zona have just kept on representin'. This list isn't exhaustive, I've only put up stats, through yesterday, of the players of interest playing in fall/winter leagues. (If you really want to know how Lew Ford is doing in Venezuela you can look it up)

Arizona Fall League	PA	Avg	OBP	SLG	HR	BB	K
Yonder Alonso	75	.290	.333	.406	2	6	8
Chris Heisey	88	.308	.400	.641	5	10	20
Zack Cozart	55	.340	.393	.560	2	5	9
Venezuelan Winter League
Danny Dorn	60	.250	.400	.500	4	8	14
Miguel Rojas	57	.288	.345	.346	0	5	10
Dominican Winter League
Juan Francisco	76	.227	.325	.455	3	10	20
Kevin Barker	84	.329	.409	.421	1	8	15
Mexican League
Adam Rosales	128	.300	.400	.427	2	18	11
Arizona Pitchers	IP	ERA	K	BB	H	HR	AVG
Mike Leake	11.2	2.31	9	2	17	0	.340
Brad Boxberger	11.1	8.74	11	6	12	2	.286
Sean Watson	10.2	8.44	12	6	20	2	.377
Logan Ondrusek	9.2	10.24	8	1	19	4	.388

Dominican League
Ben Jukich	15.2	2.87	12	5	20	1	.323
Enerio Del Rosario	11.2	2.31	6	2	10	0	.222
Sam LeCure	7.1	8.59	6	5	12	0	.353

Zack Cozart hasn't been in a game since last week and isn't listed on the Peoria Saguaros roster anymore. I can't tell if he's injured or just decided he wanted to go home.
Todd Frazier starts play in the Puerto Rican League next week. I'm giddy.
Please note the K/BB ratio for Francisco. I know it's only the DWL, but the kid is showing signs of being able to take a walk.
I'm really intrigued by Del Rosario. He flew up through the system this season, and ended the year in AAA. His groundball to flyball ratio was 3.23 during the season and is 2.22 in the DWL. Sounds like a good fit for GABP.
It's still a small sample size, but Chris Heisey keeps making a case for himself.
Darnell McDonald is tearin' up Mexico too, but since he's not on the 40 man roster anymore I didn't feel compelled to include him. Katie Couric is happy about this.

Arizona Fall League: Wednesday's Roundup

raygu — Thu, 12 Nov 2009 14:00:38 -0000

Getting back to the AFL action as the MLB trade rumors kept me busy yesterday. Let's take a look at Wednesday's action in Arizona:

Trayvon Robinson, OF, LAD-1-4, RS, BB. K, 2 SB (.273)

Andrew Lambo, OF, LAD-2-4, 3 RS, 3 RBI, BB, K (.353)

Casper Wells, OF-2-4, 4 RBI (.362)

Chris Heisey,OF, CIN-0-3, SB, BB, K (.320)

Yonder Alonso, 1B, CIN 0-3, BB, 2 K (.273)

Brandon Laird, 3B, NYY-2-5, 2 RS, HR, 2 RBI (.321)

Ike Davis, 1B, NYM- 2-4, RS, HR, 4 RBI (.348)

Taylor Teagarden, C, TEX-0-5, 2 K (.182)

Daryl Jones, OF, STL-1-3, 22, 2 K (.194)

David Cooper, 1B, TOR-3-4, RS, 2B (.294)

Ryan Kalish, 1B, BOS-2-4, 2 RS, HR, 3 RBI (.291)

Josh Vitters, 3B, CHC-2-5, RS, RBI (.364)

Jose Iglesias, SS, -4-4, 2 RS, SB, RBI (.269)

Ian Kennedy, SP, NYY-4.1 Inn, 7 H, 4 ER, 4 K (4.74)

Andrew Cashner, SP, CHC-3 Inn, 7 H, 4 ER, 5 K (4.32)

Nevin Ashley, C, TB-3-5, 3 RS, 2B, 2 3B, RBI (.400)

Danny Espinosa, SS, WAS-1-5, HR, 2 RBI (.306)

Josh Bell, 3B, BAL-2-5, 2B, RBI (.317)

Jose Tabata, OF, PIT-2-4, RBI, BB (.355)

Domonic Brown, OF, PHI-2-4, 3B, 2 RBI (.266)

Brandon Allen, 1B, ARI-1-4, 2B, 3 K (.166)

Willin Rosario, C, COL-0-4, 3 K (.250)

Buster Posey,C, SFG-1-3, BB, K (.230)

Red Reposter - Is Jocketty the Best GM in the Central?

Charlie Scrabbles — Wed, 11 Nov 2009 12:15:12 -0000

Thank a few veterans today.

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The Arizona Fall League Rising Stars game can be seen here
If you are like me and dont get MLB Network, this is your chance to catch Chris Heisey, Yonder Alonso, and Mike Leake tear it up against their elite prospect peers. Thanks to Sharks for the heads-up in the FanShots.
The Crawfish Boxes takes a look at the GMs of the NL Central
Here's what they say about our own Walt Jocketty:

"The interesting thing about Jocketty is he went from a winning team to one that is continually frustrated by not being able to get over the hump. He also went to a team that walked away from a more progressive-thinking GM in former Twins assistant Wayne Krivsky for the more traditional Jocketty. Of course, Jocketty also followed Tony LaRussa from Oakland to St. Louis, so it's unclear how much of his philosophy is tied to LaRussa's.

The Reds haven't exactly been dramatic in making over the club, but Jocketty has shown a willingness to be aggressive with the team's prospects and not trade off valuable assets for overhyped players (I'm looking at you, Jim Bowden). Still, Jocketty hasn't shown the same level of success as at his previous two stops. It will take a little more time to see whether his player evaluation method transfers to the Reds scouting department. If Jocketty can hit a few home runs in the draft, the rest of his record in the Queen City will be moot."

Check out the full article to see how Jocko compares to the other GMs in the NL Central.

Fay Q and A
"Q, from Ice82: John, I have a question about Zack Cozart as he does not appear to be on the radar right now. I could not help but notice that he was on the Redsfest roster which was a little surprising. After watching him for an entire season at Carolina, he seemingly has good range. He also showed some pop in his bat with 10 homers at a stadium in Zebulon that is a big home run park. With the questions marks surrounding Janish, is Cozart going to get a good look during spring training? Are the Reds content to potentially limp through 2010 to get to Cozart?

A: I think he’ll be in the mix if the Reds don’t add a shortstop. He’s hitting well in the Arizona Fall League (.340/.393/.560). I think Janish is the favorite now. But Cozart could play his way into the picture with a good spring. The Reds think he has more potential as a hitter. The Redsfest invitation doesn’t mean anything. A lot of minor leaguers are there every year."

Cozart skipped Sarasota and went straight from Dayton to Carolina this past season and he didnt disappoint. He put up a .750 OPS and played above average SS. I'm sure the Reds will look at him in Spring Training, but there is really no way he starts the year as the Reds' starting SS. That might be asking a bit too much.

Redleg Nation Radio talks with Reds' 4th round draft choice Mark Fleury
I thought Fleury was an inspired pick back in June, but his debut was very unlucky. He managed a .676 OPS in 128 ABs at Billings, but his BABIP was a putrid .222. Adjusting for luck, his OPS would be over .900. Look for him to turn some heads in Dayton next season.

The Florida State League approved the sale of the Sarasota team
The Pirates bought the team and are moving it up the street a piece to Bradenton. Thus ends the Reds affiliation with the city of Sarasota, where they had trained since 1998.

Project Prospect continues their top 15 lists with corner outfielders
and the Reds' Chris Heisey shows up at #9 on the list. I'm a bit surprised, as I think of him as more of a CF. Either way, PP says he was "born to hit line drives", which sounds good to me. He blasted AFL pitching, tuning them in to 1.180 OPS on his radio dial. Classic rock alllllllllll day. Thanks to Doug for pointing these out.

Shawn over at the Reds FanHuddle blog has been doing '09 reviews for every Reds' player
Be sure to check them all out if your looking for a good overview. Here's a snippet of his latest installment, Willy Taveras:

"Taveras was signed by Cincinnati to a two-year deal for $2.5 million in 2009 and $4 million in 2010. Taveras was promoted as the centerpiece of the Reds’ switch from a plodding power team lead by Griffey and Dunn to a speedy, defense-oriented outfit. The dash of Taveras at the top of the order, plus his running down balls in center field, would be the key to the new-look Cincinnati club. Taveras promised lots of bunting for base hits and a run at 100 steals.

The reality was something less spectacular. Taveras got off to a slow start, had a hot streak from the end of April to the middle of May, collapsed again, and spent much of the second half on the disabled list. By the end of the season, the center field job had been handed to rookie Drew Stubbs. The future of Taveras in Cincinnati is very much in doubt."

The Reds are going to need a catcher next year to pair with Ryan Hanigan
but Jack Moore at FanGraphs says their just aint much out there. He says Gregg Zaun.com could be the best available, and relatively cheaply.