SB Nation - Drew Stubbs

The NL Central Offseason Revue Pt. 2: The Red Menace

the red baron — Wed, 16 Dec 2009 16:35:23 -0000

Um, I think Jocketty is the one on the left.

I decided I'm going to try and do these in order from best to worst in the division; unfortunately, that now means I have to try and come up with preseason predictions before the offseason is even half over. Not a great idea on my part, really; I should have done them in alphabetical order or something. Oh, well. Too late for such considerations now, I suppose.

Of all the teams in the Central, perhaps none is so enigmatic as the Cincinnati Reds. Every spring for god knows how many years now we've heard the constant refrain, "Look out for the Reds this year. This is the year they finally turn that corner." Now, to be fair, we hear much the same thing about the Pirates, but predictions of Pittsburgh's rise are always couched not in terms of contention, but in terms of near-winning baseball. Thus, even as the predictions are made, our natural inclination toward Piratic indifference kicks in. The Reds, on the other hand, are a different story.

See, the thing about the Reds is this: they have some really, really good players. Players I would love to have on my team. They stole Brandon Phillips from their in-state rivals just a couple offseasons back, right from under the Cards' noses, even as Junior Spivey was busily reminding us not all reclamation projects end up reclaiming anything. Sometimes the ship stays sunk. (By the by, I'm proud to say I was one of the people hoping and advocating for the Cards to bring in Phillips. Sadly, our voices were not heard.) The Reds have some outstanding young arms. Their closer is one of the better ones in the business. (Still not worth his contract, but that's another issue entirely.) The right fielder is the guy the Cardinals really wanted in 2005; they chose Colby Rasmus specifically because he was the most similar player to Jay Bruce in the draft. There is some real talent here.

Yet somehow, year after year, those cries which warn us of the approaching Cincinnati domination always turn out to be wrong. Every year the Reds find some way not to win. It's gotten to the point I almost fear the offseason when no one cautions against the Reds; perhaps the spell will then be broken and this long-benighted franchise will step fully into the light. Or, perhaps not.

Either way, a little insurance can't possibly be a bad thing.

This is the year, folks. Watch out for the Reds.

Cincinnati Reds 2009 Record: 78-84, 13 games out of first

Pythagorean Record: 76-86 (673 runs scored, 723 allowed)

It was another disappointing year for the Reds, who came into the 2009 season with one of the most promising teams Cincinnati has seen in years. There was tons of optimism, and rightfully so; the Reds' rotation was immensely talented and young, just beginning to come into its own. Unfortunately, the struggles of youth and the injury bugbear combined to rob the Reds of their pitching bite, and the offense simply wasn't good enough to compensate.

Offense: After years of watching the Dunn/Griffey led Reds mash their way through the division while failing to hold anyone to less than seven runs per game, the 2009 Reds were a positively anemic change of pace. The Cardinals were not a particularly prolific offensive team, but the Reds made them look positively potent by comparison. (I'm feeling quite loquacious this morning, by the way. Does it show?) The Cardinals scored 730 runs, 57 more than the limp-lumbered lads from Cincy. Nearly six wins worth of offensive production is nothing to sneeze at.

While the Reds' problems at the platter in 2009 were legion, one can point to two areas in particular which acted as anchors around the necks of the Redlegs. On the one hand, you have the outfield. Then, on the other hand, you have the infield.

One of the more glaring issues for the Reds was the appallingly average sophomore slump of Jay Bruce, who followed up what was a very encouraging debut season with, essentially, the exact same performance. Not that that's the worst thing in the world, mind you; Bruce's OPS+ was 97 in '08 and 100 in '09, making him exactly league average, but this is Jay F. Bruce we're talking about here. He's young, yes, but you still don't expect him to be duking it out with Skip Schumaker for the title of Averagest HItter in all Baseballdom.

The good news, for Cincinnati fans at least, is this: Jay Bruce is still a better hitter than what he's shown in the majors. I feel completely confident in saying I still expect Bruce to be a star, given time to grow and better health. Unfortunately, I can't say the same for the rest of the Reds' outfield. This is, after all, a team which paid Willy Taveras actual, honest to god money to post a .559 OPS over the course of 400+ at-bats. Laynce Nix proved a source of superfluous Y's and steroid speculation, but little else. (Well, except against the Cardinals, that is.) He did put up an OPS+ of 98, but from a left fielder, you've got to expect a bit more thump. The lone real bright spot for the Reds was Johnny Gomes, who hit quite well in the Great American Bandbox, to the tune of an .879 OPS. Unfortunately, Johnny Gomes plays defense like Chris Duncan using an oven mitt. Still, beggars can't be choosers, I suppose.

On the infield, things were a bit more of a mixed bag. The right side of the Reds' gamut of grounder grabbers was brilliant, with Joey Votto establishing himself as a legitimate force (OPS of .981 for the season), and Brandon Phillips turning in another of his usual five-tool showcase performances. The left side of the infield, however, oy. Not so much. Paul Janish and Adam Rosales took the lion's shares of at-bats at shortstop and third base, respectively, and both posted OPS's in the low .600s. (Janish took the low .600s thing to the extreme, posting a .601.) Jerry Hairston played a fair amount at various positions all over the diamond and was a little better, though he still wasn't inspiring shock and awe in too many opposing pitchers.

Now that's the bad news. The good news (again, for Reds' fans), is that there will be different faces at several positions for 2010. Drew Stubbs, the Reds' uber-athletic Mike Cameron clone, came up late in the season and displayed a wide base of exciting tools in center field. Stubbs has speed, he has power, and he can go get it with the best of them in the field. The only thing holding him back is his tendency to take lots and lots of empty swings. Sort of a center field version of Tyler Greene.

The other big upgrade the Reds can count on is, of course, our old buddy Scott Rolen. Rolen came over from the Blue Jays in a midseason trade and played quite well for the Reds, hitting .270/.364/.401 and playing defense which was nearly Rolenesque. The Rolen of old is gone and he's never coming back, but the new model is still a substantial upgrade over what the Reds were trotting out most of the season.

Starting Pitching

What was supposed to be the biggest strength for the Reds ended up helping to drag them down. As the year opened, there were some touting the Reds' 1-2 rotation punch of Edinson Volquez and Johnny Cueto as the best in the National League, and perhaps one of the best in all of baseball. Sadly, Volquez succumbed to injury, having Tommy John surgery in early August, and Cueto seemed to take a step backward from his rookie campaign, even though he ended up with a lower ERA for the season. Cueto started off hot, then imploded in the late summer months, allowing an opponent's OPS of 1.026(!) in July and .938 in August. He did turn things around a bit at the end of the season, pitching better in September, but it wasn't enough to wash away the sins of the previous two months.

As strange as it sounds, Bronson Arroyo actually had sort of an okay year. Sort of. Kind of. He went 15-13, 3.84, gave up less hits than innings pitched (214 H in 220.1 IP), and struck out almost twice as many batters as he walked. Now, as to how he did it, I honestly have no idea. Every time I saw Arroyo, he was being yanked out of the game after giving up five runs in two and a third. He's basically Swamp Gas II: the Swampening at this point for me. Homer Bailey continued to frustrate those of us who believe prospect ranking should count for something, damn it, by not turning into Nolan Ryan, but there were positive signs. While his overall numerical profile doesn't inspire much confidence, Bailey did pitch extraordinarily well in September, going 4-1, 2.08 and striking out 42 batters in 43.1 innings while walking 19. Let's put it this way: if Walt or Dusty decide Homer's just not going to work out up there, I would be more than happpy to take him off their hands.

Elsewhere in the Reds' rotation, Aaron Harang was bad again, Micah Owings was a really good hitter, and Kip Wells gave Cincinnati a taste of the 2007 Cardinal magic.

The rotation could very well still be a strength in 2010 for the Reds. If Bailey really has turned a corner and Cueto can find a bit of his early-season magic after Memorial Day, Cincy could have a nice tandem atop the rotation. Add Volquez possibly returning for the stretch run, and that's an intriguing trio. And as much as it pains me to say it, you could probably do worse than Bronson Arroyo and the Harangutan for your 4th and 5th spots. (Then again, for what the Reds are paying those guys, they could also do miles better.)

Bullpen

And now we come to the real strength of the Cincinnati Reds: their bullpen. (I'll take 'Sentences I Never Expected to Speak' for $600, Alex.) After years of wandering in the desert, searching for relievers, the Reds seem to have finally found the guys to put the kibosh on any late-inning uprisings.

Francisco Cordero is not worth his contract. We'll just get that out of the way up front. Nonetheless, he's a very, very good pitcher even as he enters his mid 30s, posting a 2.16 ERA last season. He could fall off a cliff, but I don't think he will. I think we're just going to have to put up with him being good for the near future. Maybe we could get Spiezio to sober up and just pinch-hit during series with Cincinnati...

The biggest difference for the Reds between 2009 and past seasons was the emergence of Nick Masset and Danny Ray Herrera, the Screwball Kid himself, as legitimate setup men. In the past, even when the Reds had a player who could shut the door at the end of the game (remember when Todd Coffey looked like a good pitcher for like three months? Wasn't that weird?), there was nothing in the way of a bridge to get there. With Masset and Herrera, the Reds finally have that bridge.

The rest of the Redleg relief corps was solid but nothing spectacular. Arthur Rhodes was good, making me wish the Cardinals had more Rhodehouse and less Diner, but secondary LOOGY certainly isn't anything to get too very upset about.

Offseason Priorities

To be honest, I'm not sure how much Walt Jocketty and the rest of his communist cronies are going to be doing this offseason. The very same thing that makes the Reds such an intriguing team is the thing which makes them so difficult to improve. The Reds are a transitional team, and the opportunity cost of bringing in marginal upgrades may just prove to be a bit too steep. Add in the fact Cincinnati appears to have very little breathing room in terms of payroll, and I think it will likely be a relatively quiet offseason for Jocketty and Co.

The two big opportunities for the Reds to make upgrades are at shortstop and left field; unfortunately, upgrading at either of those spots is easier said than done this winter. The Reds lack the financial capacity to get into the bidding for either of the big LF prizes, Holliday or Jason Bay, and most of the other players available would represent a middling upgrade at best. The Reds have two players in their system, Todd Frazier and Chris Heisey, who both could see time in left in 2010. Frazier is a third baseman by trade, but earns his keep mostly with the bat, and could see outfield time a la Allen Craig just to get him into the lineup. Heisy is a speedy, plus-defense type with a line-drive swing and fair on-base skills. It wouldn't surprise me to see the Reds bring back Gomes as a LF/1B guy on days when Votto isn't playing and try to work one or both of Heisy/ Frazier in slowly with ABs in left.

Shortstop, on the other hand, might be a bit more interesting. There aren't a whole lot of guys out there, but there are a couple decent names. If the Reds were looking for an offensive upgrade, either Miguel Tejada or Felipe Lopez could offer a bat for a fair value. Of course, both have significant questions surrounding their abilities to play shortstop, but hey, I said offensive upgrade. If Cincinnati decided to go more for a defense-first guy, Orlando Cabrera can still pick it with the best of them. Regardless, I think shortstop is the most likely position to look toward if the Reds are going to make a move this offseason.

I'm sure Jocketty and Baker would like to pick up a more dependable arm for depth in the rotation, but I'm not sure they'll have the payroll to do so. The Reds are already paying Harang and Arroyo gobs of money; they may try to deal for an arm but I don't see a signing there. The bullpen actually needs the least help of all; they may sign a guy to replace Rhodes if he leaves or something like that, but I think the relief corps is largely set.

The Bottom Line

Do I think the Reds are going to be better than Milwaukee? I must, since I did them before the Brew Crew, right? The answer is a decided and unequivocal maybe. I think the Reds have the potential, certainly, to improve more than probably any other team in the division, simply based on their young talent base. I think the Brewers largely are who we think they are, a team of tremendous offensive talent and very, very limited pitching resources. The Reds, on the other hand, have a lot of untapped potential on both sides of the equation, and depending on how things break, they could vault up the standing in the Central or remain the same enigmatic bunch of underachievers they have been for years now.

I think the addition of Scott Rolen was a cataclysmically bad one, but, paradoxically, I also believe he'll make the Reds better in the coming season. He should provide just enough offense while helping the pitchers out significantly.

In the end, the success or failure of the Reds' 2010 season will likely have little to do with what, if any, moves Walt Jocketty makes this winter. Rather, the fate of the first season of the new decade (eat it, Matty!), will hinge largely on the three pillars upon which we've been told Cincinnati's new glory would be built for years: Homer Bailey, Jay Bruce, and Joey Votto. If those three are the players they were thought to be on the way up, the Reds could very well make some noise. If not, it could be another very long summer in the home of the world's shittiest chili.

The Baron's Playlist for the 16th of December, 2009: the Christmas Catalogue

(In no particular order, by the way)

"Fairytale of New York" - The Pogues
"Rockin' Around the Christmas Tree" - Brenda Lee (listen closely; she's actually saying fucking pie. Seriously.)
"You're All I Want for Christmas" - Brook Benton
"A Change at Christmas (Say it Isn't So)" - the Flaming Lips
"Merry Xmas Everybody" - Slade
"Jingle Bell Rock" - Bobby Helms (this is the song that will one day force me to pull to the side of the road and cry when my mother is gone)
"White Christmas" - The Drifters (sorry, but this one is way, way better than the Bing Crosby version)
"Happy Christmas (War is Over)" - John Lennon and Yoko Ono
"Blue Christmas" - Elvis Presley
"Happy Holidays" - Alabama (I really, really hate Alabama, but I loved this song when I was a kid listening to the old True Value Hardware Christmas records)
"We're Going to the Country!" - Sufjan Stevens
"Peace on Earth/ Little Drummer Boy" - David Bowie and Bing Crosby
"Marshmallow World" - Dean Martin
"God Rest Ye, Merry Gentlemen" - Nat King Cole (another True Value special)
"Frosty the Snowman" - The Ronettes
"Jingle Bells" - Glenn Miller
"I'll Be Home for Christmas" - Frank Sinatra
"I Want a Hippopotamus for Christmas" - Gayla Peevey
"Christmastime is Here" - The Vince Guaraldi Trio (sadly, this song underwent one of the worst remasters I believe I've ever heard just a couple years ago; find the old, unremastered version.)
"Christmas Wrapping" - the Waitresses (this song is utter crap. I fucking love it.)

I'm going to stop at 20. It's tough for me to do, but I'm going to do it.

Sabermetric Review of the 2009 Reds, Part 2: Offense

JinAZ — Tue, 24 Nov 2009 20:00:14 -0000

A late season surge helped prevent a historically bad offense, but nonetheless, relative to average, the Reds fell off 26 runs in 2009 to 71 runs below average (after park adjustments). It was the worst Reds offense since the 1997 team (95 runs below average). On a team level, where did this offensive dropoff come from? Let's go position-by-position:

Notes: Batting runs are the "Batting" stat from fangraphs, which are park-adjusted for us, and include all players at each position on the '08 and '09 Reds teams. Players playing multiple positions had their offenses pro-rated based on innings played at each position.

The Reds had a nice uptick at 1B and 2B thanks to improved offensive seasons by both Votto and Phillips. But there were major dropoffs in offense at 3B, SS, and LF. 3B was largely due to the massive underperformance of (and injury to) Encarnacion and subsequent powerless debut by Scott Rolen. At SS and LF, the story is a bit more nuanced. The Reds had guys who were essentially playing out of position at those positions in 2008 (Dunn, Hairston, Keppinger), but in 2009 were replaced by guys who didn't hit as well but contributed significantly better fielding (Janish, Dickerson, etc). Also, given how much time Paul Bako got in 2008, I was surprised to not see better offense from our catchers. But then I looked again at the 2009 catchers' hitting stats and it all made sense again. More on the individual players below.

For the individual player stats, there are a few flourishes that distinguishes what follows from what you'll find at Fangraphs, for example (which is my primary data source). First, everything's park adjusted. This is a big deal for Cincinnati, which is a moderate hitter's park (5 year regressed park factor has climbed to 1.04!). Second, the last three columns include not only the hitting information, but also full baserunning info from BPro. This includes not only stolen bases, but also things like advancing 1st to 3rd on a single.

Here are all individual Reds player performances for 2009. The table is sortable if you click in the header. I've italicized pitchers to make it easier to ignore them if you wish to do so.

Name	PA	BB%	K%	GB%	LD%	FB%	EqBRR	BABIP	AVG	OBP	SLG	ISO	wOBA*	wRAA*	wRAR*
Joey Votto	544	13%	23%	39%	22%	39%	-0.3	0.372	0.322	0.414	0.567	0.245	0.411	38.3	52.7
Brandon Phillips	644	7%	13%	50%	17%	33%	3.0	0.284	0.276	0.329	0.447	0.171	0.339	5.3	22.3
Jonny Gomes	314	9%	30%	34%	20%	46%	-0.1	0.309	0.267	0.338	0.541	0.274	0.367	10.1	18.4
Jay Bruce	387	10%	22%	39%	13%	49%	0.0	0.221	0.223	0.303	0.470	0.247	0.324	-2.1	8.1
Chris Dickerson	299	13%	26%	50%	22%	29%	-1.9	0.360	0.275	0.370	0.373	0.098	0.325	-1.2	6.7
Laynce Nix	337	7%	26%	38%	20%	43%	1.1	0.272	0.239	0.291	0.476	0.237	0.321	-2.7	6.2
Wladimir Balentien	125	12%	25%	47%	18%	35%	0.5	0.325	0.264	0.352	0.427	0.163	0.345	1.6	4.9
Drew Stubbs	196	8%	27%	42%	21%	37%	-1.3	0.325	0.267	0.323	0.439	0.172	0.328	-0.4	4.8
Juan Francisco	25	13%	33%	57%	29%	14%	0.3	0.615	0.429	0.520	0.619	0.190	0.503	3.8	4.4
Scott Rolen	162	12%	15%	46%	16%	38%	-1.5	0.291	0.270	0.364	0.401	0.131	0.325	-0.7	3.6
Micah Owings	58	2%	35%	43%	17%	40%	-0.1	0.333	0.259	0.281	0.537	0.278	0.333	0.2	1.7
Darnell McDonald	111	5%	30%	47%	18%	35%	0.7	0.361	0.267	0.306	0.400	0.133	0.312	-1.8	1.2
Jerry Hairston	340	6%	15%	34%	24%	42%	-0.5	0.273	0.254	0.305	0.397	0.143	0.303	-8.1	0.9
Kevin Barker	36	9%	28%	54%	25%	21%	-0.1	0.375	0.281	0.333	0.375	0.094	0.292	-1.2	-0.2
Daniel Herrera	4	33%	50%	100%	0%	0%	0.0	0.000	0.000	0.333	0.000	0.000	0.229	-0.4	-0.2
Arthur Rhodes	1	0%	100%	0%	0%	0%	0.0	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	-0.006	-0.3	-0.3
Jared Burton	1	0%	100%	0%	0%	0%	0.0	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	-0.006	-0.3	-0.3
Nick Masset	1	0%	100%	0%	0%	0%	0.0	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	-0.006	-0.3	-0.3
Ramon Ramirez	1	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0.0	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	-0.006	-0.3	-0.3
Carlos Fisher	1	0%	100%	0%	0%	0%	0.0	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	-0.006	-0.3	-0.3
Ryan Hanigan	293	13%	12%	48%	24%	27%	-1.4	0.289	0.263	0.361	0.331	0.068	0.298	-8.2	-0.5
Matt Maloney	15	8%	42%	86%	14%	0%	0.1	0.429	0.250	0.308	0.250	0.000	0.262	-0.9	-0.5
Mike Lincoln	2	0%	100%	0%	0%	0%	0.0	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	-0.006	-0.6	-0.5
Edwin Encarnacion	165	15%	27%	41%	14%	46%	-2.8	0.250	0.209	0.333	0.374	0.165	0.295	-5.1	-0.7
Drew Sutton	76	10%	30%	37%	19%	44%	-0.6	0.289	0.212	0.297	0.348	0.136	0.280	-3.3	-1.3
Ramon Hernandez	331	10%	12%	49%	19%	32%	-3.1	0.274	0.258	0.336	0.362	0.104	0.295	-10.1	-1.3
Danny Richar	9	11%	13%	57%	14%	29%	-1.3	0.286	0.250	0.333	0.250	0.000	0.105	-1.8	-1.5
Kip Wells	16	0%	36%	67%	33%	0%	0.2	0.143	0.091	0.091	0.091	0.000	0.090	-3.3	-2.9
Corky Miller	69	14%	25%	28%	21%	51%	-0.5	0.214	0.179	0.299	0.250	0.071	0.247	-5.0	-3.2
Edinson Volquez	19	0%	50%	75%	13%	13%	0.0	0.125	0.063	0.063	0.063	0.000	0.050	-4.6	-4.1
Adam Rosales	266	10%	20%	45%	16%	40%	0.3	0.246	0.213	0.303	0.317	0.104	0.278	-12.0	-5.0
Justin Lehr	28	4%	36%	77%	8%	15%	-0.7	0.143	0.091	0.130	0.136	0.045	0.090	-5.9	-5.1
Craig Tatum	77	9%	15%	45%	12%	43%	0.1	0.175	0.162	0.250	0.221	0.059	0.213	-7.8	-5.8
Paul Janish	292	9%	16%	37%	19%	44%	0.7	0.247	0.211	0.296	0.305	0.094	0.271	-14.9	-7.2
Aaron Harang	54	2%	26%	74%	9%	18%	-1.4	0.176	0.149	0.167	0.234	0.085	0.141	-8.9	-7.5
Johnny Cueto	59	6%	37%	74%	4%	22%	0.2	0.207	0.130	0.184	0.130	0.000	0.151	-9.2	-7.6
Homer Bailey	43	0%	45%	75%	10%	15%	-0.1	0.143	0.079	0.079	0.079	0.000	0.062	-10.0	-8.9
Bronson Arroyo	76	0%	44%	35%	21%	45%	-0.3	0.200	0.113	0.113	0.161	0.048	0.108	-14.7	-12.7
Willy Taveras	437	4%	14%	47%	17%	36%	3.6	0.277	0.240	0.275	0.285	0.045	0.259	-26.9	-15.4
Alex Gonzalez	270	6%	15%	36%	18%	46%	-1.4	0.231	0.210	0.258	0.296	0.086	0.229	-23.7	-16.6

Table notes: Most stats were pulled or calculated from those at FanGraphs. Most should be self-explanatory. EqBRR is Dan Fox's baserunning stat from Baseball Prospectus. wOBA* is an all-encompassing offensive stat read on the same scale as OBP. It is based on wOBA listed at fangraphs, but then park adjusted and further adjusted to include EqBRR baserunning information. wRAA* is runs above average, based on wOBA*, and so is park adjusted and includes EqBRR. wRAR* is based on wRAA*, plus a 2.0 wins/700 PA modifier (the difference between an average hitter and a replacement hitter). wRAR* does not consider position--that includes pitchers! We will apply position adjustments when calculating win values in a subsequent post.

Joey Votto is the clear winner of the best offensive player award, despite missed time due to illness. The guy just had an incredible season. His 0.372 BABIP is a source of concern, however--that's almost certainly the result of some good luck, which will (at least) pull down his on-base stats. But he doesn't have to have an 0.372 to be a fine hitter. I'll happily take his CHONE projection in 2010 and every year thereafter...though, maybe with a few more PA's.

The often maligned (at least in the blogosphere) Brandon Phillips comes in as the second most valuable hitter, at least relative to replacement level. Yes, he's a free swinger, and yes, he's misplaced hitting 4th on a team. But he's proven to be an extremely durable, consistent hitter with good power and the ability to add to value with his baserunning game. He, along with Taveras, contributed the most on the basepaths this year (+3 runs overall).

Jonny Gomes comes in third, and I'm sure this is why so many are enthusiastic about re-signing him (despite his fielding problems). His 0.274 ISO was the highest of any hitter on the team, and second only to the incomparable Micah Owings.

But from here, we just drop off a cliff. I find it flat-out shocking that only three hitters crossed the 10 RAR plateau on this Reds team. In 2008, we had seven players top that plateau, with Jay Bruce essentially #8. There just wasn't much good hitting talent--or at least good hitting performance--on the team this year. In contrast, we had five hitters at least 5 runs below replacement level (Rosales, Tatum, Janish, Taveras, and Gonzalez; this is offense only). Now, some of that was made up for with glovework. But even so, this is a miserable offense. All I can say is thank goodness for Joey Votto. Can you imagine what this team would have been like without him?

A few other hitters of interest. I've read a lot of optimisim about Jay Bruce, with many pointing to his 0.221 BABIP as something that won't happen next season. I hope they're right, and I was glad to see the power there from him, but I worry about his line drive %. Those things can fluctuate, and Bruce is young and tremendously talented. But a bust-out season next year isn't guaranteed from where I sit......Micah Owings lived up to his reputation and had a terrific year at the plate for a pitcher, often serving as our top right-handed pinch hitter. And keep in mind the pinch hitting is measurably more difficult that hitting when you're already in the game, so Owings is probably better than he showed. He didn't walk much, and I wonder if that eventually will catch up to him as pitchers learn to exploit his weaknesses.....Drew Stubbs showed surprising power in his September call-up, but his on-base skills weren't as evident, walking only 8% of the time. There was some talk that he'd modified his swing upon arriving in the big leagues, but I haven't seen confirmation of that and I'm skeptical. Honestly, I think he just got lucky. I have very little idea of what he'll hit next season.....Juan "El Nino Destructor" Francisco hit the crap out of the ball in his 25 PA's, even walking at a nice clip. But 0.615 BABIPs tend to decline, and I have almost zero confidence that he's actually big league ready.....Lowest walk rate by anyone on the team with more than 100 PA's? Our leadoff hitter, Willy Taveras. I kind of miss Norris Hopper.....How bad was Ramon Hernandez? And manning 1B when Votto was out, no less! I argued last spring that a combination of Hernandez and Hanigan would be a massive upgrade on last year's catching. As the graph at the top of the page shows, however, it wasn't. Not that Tatum or Miller helped much on that front.

Next time (probably after the holidays): Fielding, and combining fielding value with offensive value to get position player win values!

Red Reposter - Is Jocketty the Best GM in the Central?

Charlie Scrabbles — Wed, 11 Nov 2009 12:15:12 -0000

Thank a few veterans today.

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The Arizona Fall League Rising Stars game can be seen here
If you are like me and dont get MLB Network, this is your chance to catch Chris Heisey, Yonder Alonso, and Mike Leake tear it up against their elite prospect peers. Thanks to Sharks for the heads-up in the FanShots.
The Crawfish Boxes takes a look at the GMs of the NL Central
Here's what they say about our own Walt Jocketty:

"The interesting thing about Jocketty is he went from a winning team to one that is continually frustrated by not being able to get over the hump. He also went to a team that walked away from a more progressive-thinking GM in former Twins assistant Wayne Krivsky for the more traditional Jocketty. Of course, Jocketty also followed Tony LaRussa from Oakland to St. Louis, so it's unclear how much of his philosophy is tied to LaRussa's.

The Reds haven't exactly been dramatic in making over the club, but Jocketty has shown a willingness to be aggressive with the team's prospects and not trade off valuable assets for overhyped players (I'm looking at you, Jim Bowden). Still, Jocketty hasn't shown the same level of success as at his previous two stops. It will take a little more time to see whether his player evaluation method transfers to the Reds scouting department. If Jocketty can hit a few home runs in the draft, the rest of his record in the Queen City will be moot."

Check out the full article to see how Jocko compares to the other GMs in the NL Central.

Fay Q and A
"Q, from Ice82: John, I have a question about Zack Cozart as he does not appear to be on the radar right now. I could not help but notice that he was on the Redsfest roster which was a little surprising. After watching him for an entire season at Carolina, he seemingly has good range. He also showed some pop in his bat with 10 homers at a stadium in Zebulon that is a big home run park. With the questions marks surrounding Janish, is Cozart going to get a good look during spring training? Are the Reds content to potentially limp through 2010 to get to Cozart?

A: I think he’ll be in the mix if the Reds don’t add a shortstop. He’s hitting well in the Arizona Fall League (.340/.393/.560). I think Janish is the favorite now. But Cozart could play his way into the picture with a good spring. The Reds think he has more potential as a hitter. The Redsfest invitation doesn’t mean anything. A lot of minor leaguers are there every year."

Cozart skipped Sarasota and went straight from Dayton to Carolina this past season and he didnt disappoint. He put up a .750 OPS and played above average SS. I'm sure the Reds will look at him in Spring Training, but there is really no way he starts the year as the Reds' starting SS. That might be asking a bit too much.

Redleg Nation Radio talks with Reds' 4th round draft choice Mark Fleury
I thought Fleury was an inspired pick back in June, but his debut was very unlucky. He managed a .676 OPS in 128 ABs at Billings, but his BABIP was a putrid .222. Adjusting for luck, his OPS would be over .900. Look for him to turn some heads in Dayton next season.

The Florida State League approved the sale of the Sarasota team
The Pirates bought the team and are moving it up the street a piece to Bradenton. Thus ends the Reds affiliation with the city of Sarasota, where they had trained since 1998.

Project Prospect continues their top 15 lists with corner outfielders
and the Reds' Chris Heisey shows up at #9 on the list. I'm a bit surprised, as I think of him as more of a CF. Either way, PP says he was "born to hit line drives", which sounds good to me. He blasted AFL pitching, tuning them in to 1.180 OPS on his radio dial. Classic rock alllllllllll day. Thanks to Doug for pointing these out.

Shawn over at the Reds FanHuddle blog has been doing '09 reviews for every Reds' player
Be sure to check them all out if your looking for a good overview. Here's a snippet of his latest installment, Willy Taveras:

"Taveras was signed by Cincinnati to a two-year deal for $2.5 million in 2009 and $4 million in 2010. Taveras was promoted as the centerpiece of the Reds’ switch from a plodding power team lead by Griffey and Dunn to a speedy, defense-oriented outfit. The dash of Taveras at the top of the order, plus his running down balls in center field, would be the key to the new-look Cincinnati club. Taveras promised lots of bunting for base hits and a run at 100 steals.

The reality was something less spectacular. Taveras got off to a slow start, had a hot streak from the end of April to the middle of May, collapsed again, and spent much of the second half on the disabled list. By the end of the season, the center field job had been handed to rookie Drew Stubbs. The future of Taveras in Cincinnati is very much in doubt."

The Reds are going to need a catcher next year to pair with Ryan Hanigan
but Jack Moore at FanGraphs says their just aint much out there. He says Gregg Zaun.com could be the best available, and relatively cheaply.

Arizona Fall League: Saturday's Roundup

raygu — Sun, 01 Nov 2009 14:25:04 -0000

Here's a look at Saturday's top performances:

Dustin Ackley, OF, SEA-2-5, RS, 2 2B, 3 RBI (.313)

Russ Mitchell, 1B, LAD-3-5, 2 RS, 5 RBI (.365)

Trayvon Robinson, OF, LAD-1-4, 2 RS, SB (.280)

Joseph Dunigan, 1B-2-4, 3 RBI (.289)

Ike Davis, 1B, NYM-2-5, 2 RS, HR, RBI (.340)

Domonic Brown, OF, PHI-2-5, RS, 3 RBI (.258)

Jose Tabata, OF, PIT-3-5, 2 RS, (.328)

Brandon Allen, 1B, ARI-0-5, RBI (.175)

Brandon Crawford, SS, SFG-3-5, RS, 2 SB (.333)

Freddie Freeman, 1B, ATL-2-4 (.308)

Chris Heisey, OF, CIN-0-3, 2 K (.364)

Zach Cozart, SS, CIN-2-4, 2 K, SB (.354)

Yonder Alonso, 1B, CIN- 0-4 (.244)

Drew Storen, RP, WAS-1 Inn, 2 H, K, S (2) (1.17 ERA)

Jemile Weeks, 2B, OAK-3-5, 2 RS, 2 SB

Brad Emaus, 1B, CLE-4-4, 2 RS (.314)

Grant Desem, OF, OAK-0-4, RBI (.393)

Josh Bell, 3B, BAL-0-4 (.333)

Starlin Castro, SS, CHC-2-4, SB (.417)

Josh Vitters, 3B, CHC-1-5 (.333)

Starlin Castro is now leading the AFL in hitting with his .417 Avg.

With Chris Heisey close to making the Reds roster in 2010, what do the Reds do with the logjam at 1B with Joey Votto, who I wrote about yesterday, and AA first baseman Yonder Alonso? The Reds have an abundance of outfielders in Jay Bruce, Drew Stubbs, Chris Dickerson, Willy Taveras, Jonny Gomes and Chris Heisey. You can also throw OF, 3B, 2B prospect Todd Frazier into the OF mix.

Can Drew Stubbs be as Good as Joey Votto?

Charlie Scrabbles — Mon, 26 Oct 2009 12:00:18 -0000

More photos » by David Kohl - AP

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We all know Joey Votto was by far the best player on the Reds this past season. He single-handedly carried the offense on his broad and capable shoulders. Some say he is more than a man but less than a god, like some kind of demi-god, or archangel, or X-man. He posted an impressive 4.4 WAR according to FanGraphs. That is solid All-Star-level production. Joey Votto is good at baseball. But is he really the best player on the team? Consider the following:

Drew Stubbs came up in mid-August and saw action in just 42 games. He looked all right at the plate, holding his own and posting a slash line of .267/.323/.439. That OPS of .762 is nearly identical to his career minor league OPS of .765. Of course, he hit for more power and got on base less (his career minor league line is .269/.364/.401), but considering the small sample size it's still a pretty accurate reflection of the skill set he showed in the minors. This isnt a wild aberration like Chris Dickerson's debut in '08, and I think it is totally reasonable to believe he can continue to hit like a league-average hitter. His solid walk rate (he's never had an OBP lower than .353 at any minor-league level), decent-but-not-shabby ISO (steadily around .150), steady K-rates, and luminous BABIP rates (kid gets a ton of infield hits) scream "consistent" to me. He is precisely the kind of hitter whose minor league numbers translate well to the majors.

His early projections for next year aren't as optimistic about his future performance though. ZiPS sees him posting a measly .653 OPS for next season. As we talked about a few days ago, Bill James projects him much better, foreseeing a .726 OPS. Not as good as his small-sample-sized performance from the end of '09, but not as Taverasian as ZiPS thinks. Now, normally I trust these advanced projection systems more than I trust my gut, but on this one I think they are missing the mark. I think, for the reasons stated above, Stubbs is far more likely to OPS around .750 than .650.

So if Stubbs hits like a league-average hitter, then how can he be as good as Joey Votto, the Joey Votto who OPS'd .981, posted a .418 wOBA, and stole my heart?

Checking the WAR leaderboards over at FanGraphs, one particular player really caught my eye. He was the most valuable center fielder in the Major Leagues last year. He's not Grady Sizemore, Curtis Granderson, Torii Hunter, or Matt Kemp. He's not Jacoby Ellsbury, Shane Victorino, or B.J. Upton. He's Franklin Gutierrez, and he's the best gloveman in the league.

Gutierrez OPS'd .764 last season, his first as a Mariner. He was a tick above league-average with the bat, accumulating 6.3 BRAR. But boy, he was a '64 Fender Stratocaster in classic white with triple single-coil pickups and a wammy bar in the field. He posted 28.5 FRAR in 153 games, the best mark in all of baseball at any position. This was good for 5.8 total WAR.

Stubbs was nearly equal to Gutierrez with the glove last season, albeit in a small sample size. Stubbs posted a UZR of 7.7 in just 42 games, which extrapolates into a UZR/150 of 22.3. Of course, it is not a foregone conclusion that Stubbs can keep up that level of glovesmanship over a full season. But all the scouting reports say that he can. Since he was drafted in '06 (ahead of Tim Lincecum), he's been heralded as a future gold-glover. It is not good science to take such a small sample and use it as a representative sample, but in this case I think Stubbs really is that good. His minor league TotalZone numbers think so (found at minorleaguesplits), the scouts think so, and so I think so.

So Gutierrez had the best season according to WAR of any center fielder in the league last season, and his game is nearly identical to that of Drew Stubbs. A league-average bat and an elite glove at a premium position makes for a very valuable player.

So what is the takeaway from all this? At the very least, we can see how there is much, much more to winning baseball games than just hitting the ball with the bat. Votto is an elite hitter, but he plays a weak defensive position and is merely average there in comparison to his peers. Stubbs is the exact opposite of Votto, with an average bat and an elite glove. I'm not ready to seriously consider Stubbs to be the same caliber of player that Votto is (though it makes for a hooky title), but I can envision a future, as early as next season, where this is the case.

Checking out Bill James Projections for 2010

Slyde — Thu, 22 Oct 2009 14:50:17 -0000

We're still a week away from the World Series, but now is as good of a time as any to start checking out projections for the 2010 season. I've gotten my hands on the initial set of Bill James Projections for next season, so I thought I'd share them with you. The full set of projections will be available with much, much more in the 2010 Bill James Handbook, which comes out next month and you can pre-order here.

I've broken the projections down a bit into groups, the first set being players who don't really have competition for their position (yet), and the following sets split up among players from 2009 who could be part of a position competition. First, the "starters":

**Starters**
Name	2009 Projection	2009 Actual	2010 Projection
Name	AVG/OBP/SLG	AVG/OBP/SLG	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG
Jay Bruce	.296/.351/.540	.223/.303/.470	574	.274/.340/.537
Paul Janish	N/A	.211/.296/.305	188	.223/.301/.319
Brandon Phillips	.263/.313/.431	.276/.329/.447	613	.269/.322/.434
Scott Rolen	.268/.356/.453	.305/.368/.455	482	.278/.357/.442
Joey Votto	.307/.386/.536	.322/.414/.567	502	.311/.397/.550

The James projections were way off on Bruce, as most systems were. As you can see though, they are still very optimistic about the young right-fielder. I think that is justified since he suffered from quite a bit of statistical bad luck last season, but I think we all know that he still has some adjustments that he needs to make at the plate before he'll likely achieve that projection. Offensively, Janish is a black-hole, but if he's the only one and he doesn't bat 2nd, his defense is well worth having in the lineup. BP's projection is what it almost always is. I'd like to see more power from Rolen, but I think that ship has sailed. Votto is...well...awesome.

**Left Field**
Name	2009 Projection	2009 Actual	2010 Projection
Name	AVG/OBP/SLG	AVG/OBP/SLG	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG
Wladimir Balentien	.239/.312/.444	.234/.305/.385	160	.244/.316/.431
Jonny Gomes	.251/.356/.486	.267/.338/.541	278	.245/.331/.486
Darnell McDonald	N/A	.267/.306/.400	174	.270/.321/.414
Laynce Nix	N/A	.239/.291/.476	214	.257/.309/.467

Based on these projections, there aren't a lot of outstanding prospects for a typically high offensive position like left field. I'd still like to see Gomes brought back, especially given these other options. However, I'm also not convinced that Balentien can't outperform those projections. I'm not sure if he's good enough for an everyday starter role, but I think he could potentially put up a little more power.

**Center Field**
Name	2009 Projection	2009 Actual	2010 Projection
Name	AVG/OBP/SLG	AVG/OBP/SLG	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG
Chris Dickerson	.268/.360/.454	.275/.370/.373	254	.276/.372/.429
Drew Stubbs	N/A	.267/.323/.439	544	.267/.336/.390
Willy Taveras	.267/.323/.315	.240/.275/.285	277	.271/.322/.321

To be honest with you, I'd give Chris Dickerson the starting job in center field next year, if I thought he would stay healthy. I wouldn't be upset if Drew Stubbs is out there, especially if his power surge last season is real (the James Projections don't think so). Willy Taveras should be gone.

**Catcher**
Name	2009 Projection	2009 Actual	2010 Projection
Name	AVG/OBP/SLG	AVG/OBP/SLG	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG
Ryan Hanigan	.275/.357/.382	.263/.361/.331	344	.277/.361/.366
Ramon Hernandez	.253/.319/.411	.258/.336/.362	120	.260/.328/.405

Surely no one thinks that Hernandez is worth $8 million more than Hanigan next season.

What do you think? Are they way off anywhere? Does this change your opinion of any of the players?

Farmer's Only: The Farmies!!!

nycredsfan — Wed, 14 Oct 2009 14:51:39 -0000

The Beckhams love the Farmies!

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It's that time of year again! That's right, time for everyone's favorite minor league awards, the (1st annual) Farmie Awards! We'll be presenting awards for outstanding performances in the Reds minor league system during the 2009 season. We'll present the awards over two days. Today are the smaller awards (think Art Direction and Makeup Design). Tomorrow we'll get into the major prizes. As with any awards show, there will be awkward acceptance speeches, terrible clothes, and controversial winners. That's where you come in. Let me know why my picks are wrong and who the award should've gone to.

Hope you enjoy!

The Chernobyl Award: Most Explosive Power

Juan Francisco

He's averaged 25 homers and 29 doubles a year in his first 3 full pro seasons. His ISO and OPS have gone up each of those 3 seasons as well. And he's only 22 and will keep getting stronger......now about those walks.

Honorable Mention:

Nobody in the Reds system is in his league right now.

The Bizarro Big Donkey Award: Best Outfield Defense

Drew Stubbs

We got to see a taste of his defensive deliciousness over the last month and a half of the season. He was worth 7.7 runs in his short time in Cincy, and he was just continuing the magic he displayed with Louisville this season. TotalZone rated him as worth 33 Runs per 150 games for L'Ville this year. We all know it's an imperfect metric, but that's still ridiculously good. Oh, and he was voted best outfield defense, best outfield arm, and best baserunner in the International League this season. He can flat out defend.

Honorable Mention:

Chris Heisey plays a solid CF and is good on either corner.

Yorman Rodriguez is still very raw, but word is he has a rocket arm and can cover some major ground in CF.

The Maňos Del Oro Award: Best Infield Defense

Zack Cozart

Ignore all of the errors. Cozart is a slick fielder with good range and a strong arm. Some have compared him favorably to Janish, only with (hopefully) a better bat.

Honorable Mention:

Miguel Rojas-Also a good fielding SS, but until he passes Cozart on the depth chart he'll play second fiddle.

The Jeffersons Award: Movin’ On Up Fastest Through the System

Matt Klinker

Klinker, a graduate of Lakota West High School (gooooooo Firebirds!), was drafted in the 15^th round of the 2007 draft out of Furman University. He toiled mostly in Dayton last year as a 23 year old, and his prospect status was marginal. This year, however, after struggling a bit through 9 starts in Sarasota, he was promoted to Carolina where he made just 6 more starts before being promoted again to Louisville where he got 5 starts before suffering a season ending injury. He performed better with each successive promotion, striking out over a batter per inning in AAA, and could potentially be in the #5 starter conversation in the spring. Not bad for a 15^th round pick just 2 years out of college.

Honorable Mention:

23 year old groundball machine Enerio Del Rosario started the year in Sarasota as well, and finished on Louisville’s playoff roster. He has great control and almost 70% of balls in play against him were groundballs. Sounds like a good fit for GABP and our infield defense. He has an outside chance of starting next year in the Reds ‘pen.

Yorman Rodriguez…..a 16 year old in Billings? That’s craaaaaazy. If he even sniffs Dayton next year he’ll be a lock for this award in 2010.

Need to add Logan Ondrusek here. BK pointed out his somewhat meteoric rise through the system this year, earning a spot in the AFL. Plus, dude's gigantic, I'd hate to make him angry.

The WorldCom Award: Greatest Prospect Stock Plummet

Kyle Lotzkar

The Canuck with the Hammer Curve dominated low-A as an 18 year old in 2008, striking out almost 12 batters per nine innings. He was given the honor of being Red Reporter's #7 prospect last year. Doug Gray rated him #8 in the system and said he had #1 starter potential. Due to an elbow fracture that still hasn't fully healed, there are serious questions about whether he'll ever pitch again, let alone be an ace.

Honorable Mention:

Last year at this time some thought Chris Valaika would be in Cincinnati by now, but injuries and a terrible April through July has hindered his progress. He's still got value as a prospect, but given his somewhat limited defensive capabilities and questions with the bat, he's far from a sure bet now.

The Google Award: Greatest Prospect Stock Gain

Travis Wood

Selected in the 2^nd round out of high school in 2005, Wood has always carried the label of "prospect," but his first 4 professional seasons were characterized by allowing too many baserunners. This year, his age 22 season, something clicked. His BB/9 went from 4.78 last year to 2.86 this year. His average against went from .264 last year to .207 this year. This caused his Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) to go from 4.66 to 3.28. Last year he didn't make the RR Community Rankings top 15, and Doug Gray listed him as the Reds 28^th best prospect. I'm guessing he'll be on everyone's top 10 list this year.

Honorable Mention:

Chris Heisey was Doug's 23^rd best prospect this year and will probably make all Reds top 10 lists this year. If he hadn't struggled a bit in AAA he would have easily won this award. As it is, he's still got a bit more to show to be considered more than a 4^th OF at the major league level.

Zack Cozart, like Heisey, would've won this award in another year. He showed improved power and plate discipline this year to go with what might be the best SS defense in the minor league system.

Fantasy Baseball: NL Second Half Stolen Base Leaderboard

raygu — Wed, 07 Oct 2009 21:09:43 -0000

More photos » by Ben Margot - AP

3 months ago: Colorado Rockies' Carlos Gonzalez steals second base beneath the tag of San Francisco Giants shortstop Juan Uribe during the first inning of a baseball game Tuesday, Sept. 15, 2009, in San Francisco. (AP Photo/Ben Margot)

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Continuing the second half leaderboard series, I give you the NL second half stolen base leaders. Here you may find a cheap stolen base guy to get late in your drafts in 2010. In this list I am using SBO%, which represents a hitters stolen base opportunity percentage. SBO% tells you how often a hitter attempts a stolen base once he reaches base.

Let's take a look at the leaderboard after the jump.

Player	AB	R	H	HR	RBI	BB	KO	SB	CS	SBO%	BA	OBP
Bourn, Michael CF HOU	278	41	78	0	10	25	70	29	4	0.320	0.281	0.341
Morgan, Nyjer LF WAS	153	29	55	1	10	9	17	19	7	0.406	0.360	0.410
Cabrera, Everth SS SD	288	42	73	2	21	36	71	18	7	0.229	0.254	0.340
McCutchen, Andrew OF PIT	283	51	81	10	31	44	55	15	5	0.160	0.286	0.378
Rollins, Jimmy SS PHI	326	50	89	14	43	18	30	15	3	0.168	0.273	0.308
Kemp, Matt CF LA	285	49	76	15	51	18	63	15	4	0.202	0.267	0.311
Ramirez, Hanley SS FLA	269	50	91	10	46	30	53	15	1	0.132	0.338	0.412
Utley, Chase 2B PHI	268	51	67	11	32	36	53	14	0	0.136	0.250	0.360
Phillips, Brandon 2B CIN	288	33	82	6	40	13	41	13	3	0.168	0.285	0.321
Braun, Ryan J. LF MIL	308	52	100	16	56	21	53	13	3	0.132	0.325	0.374
Theriot, Ryan SS CHC	279	34	75	0	24	26	42	11	5	0.158	0.269	0.332
Gonzalez, Carlos OF COL	195	42	62	12	24	19	46	11	4	0.185	0.318	0.382
Matsui, Kazuo 2B HOU	257	29	65	7	28	15	43	10	0	0.125	0.253	0.296
Stubbs, Drew OF CIN	180	27	48	8	17	15	49	10	4	0.222	0.267	0.323
Victorino, Shane CF PHI	274	40	74	4	20	24	30	10	3	0.133	0.270	0.338
Velez, Eugenio 2B SF	249	38	69	5	31	16	47	10	5	0.176	0.277	0.321
Castillo, Luis 2B NYM	241	36	79	1	22	27	40	10	3	0.123	0.328	0.395
Taveras, Willy CF CIN	123	16	30	0	4	2	14	9	2	0.344	0.244	0.256
McLouth, Nate CF ATL	210	37	51	6	21	37	46	9	5	0.159	0.243	0.365
Reynolds, Mark 3B ARI	257	43	66	20	40	32	103	9	3	0.122	0.257	0.344

A few guys that stand out in this list, based on SBO%, are no surprise to many fantasy/roto owners. The Astros Michael Bourn, the Reds Willy Taveras, and the Nationals Nyjer Morgan all attempted a SB at least 30% of the time they reached base. But Taveras owners will have to wonder if he will even have a job in 2010, due to the presence of CF prospect Drew Stubbs, who stole 10 bases in his 180 ABs. Stubbs attempted an SB 22% of the time he reached base, which tells me that Dusty Baker will let his leadoff hitter run next season. I just wonder who that will be.

A couple other guys that attempted an SB at least 20% of the time they reached base are the Dodgers Matt Kemp and the Padres Everth Cabrera. I wonder how many SBs Kemp will attempt since he will more than likely be hitting in the middle of the Dodgers lineup in 2010. I don't see a significant dropoff, as manager Joe Torre likes to be aggressive on the basepaths.

Cabrera is a speed demon who I think can steal 40+ in 2010, and possibly 50. He may hit leadoff in 2010, and the Padres will more than likely struggle to score runs again in 2010, so Cabrera should have the green light come March 2010. Feel free to spend accordingly.

The Rockies Carlos Gonzalez, or CarGo, has the potential to go 20-20 in 2010, as he appears to have reached his potential after a year and a half of mediocre production in Oakland and Colorado.

Finally, I can see Andrew McCutchen getting the green light a bit more in 2010, and could steal 35+ bases with average power.

Poll

Will Carlos Gonzalez build on his 2009 second half in 2010, or will he return the the mediocre OFer he was in Oakland?

Yes, CarGo will build on his second half performance and make the Matt Holliday deal look like a steal from the Rockies point of view.

32 votes

No, Billy Beane is smarter than that. His second half was a fluke.

8 votes

40 votes | Poll has closed

Cueto goes to 11! Reds win, 8-4.

Brendanukkah — Sun, 04 Oct 2009 03:40:09 -0000

Joe Nuxhall Memorial Honorary Star of the Game

Joey Votto. The Irresistable Force went 2-3 with a double, a home run, three RBI, a run scored, and two walks. Dude's good.

Key Plays

Johnny Cueto got off to a rough start. He walked Andrew McCutchen, then gave up a run-scoring double to Andy LaRoche. It seems like it's been awhile since we've harped on all the first inning runs the Reds have given up. They gave up a lot.
In the second inning, the Reds used the same walk-double strategy to even the game. Scott Rolen drew the walk, and Darnell McDonald hit the double. Walks to Ramon Hernandez and Drew Stubbs loaded the bases, but Paul Janish flew out to end the inning.
Scott Rolen homered in the third. Know what? I haven't really missed Edwin since we traded him.
McDonald led off the fourth inning with a single, and went to third on Ramon Hernandez's single. Then he scored on a passed ball. After Cueto and Stubbs made outs, Paul Janish walked, and he and Hernandez scored on Joey Votto's double. Votto was thrown out trying to stretch the hit into a triple.
Cueto ran into trouble in the sixth inning. He gave up a leadoff single to Garrett Jones, and a walk to Brandon Moss one out later. Then Delwyn Young hit a three run homer to bring the Pirates within one run.
The Pirates hadn't counted on El Nino Destructor, however. In the bottom of the sixth, Ramon Hernandez doubled to lead off, and Willy Taveras came in to run for him. Then Juan Francisco hit a double to right field and Taveras scored. ROAR! Francisco then scored on successive sacrifices by Stubbs and Janish. ROAR!
Votto homered in the eighth inning. Such a giver.

via www.fangraphs.com

Other Notes

Brandon Phillips had been 0-16 before singling in the eighth. If he gets five RBI tomorrow, he'll finish with 100 on the season.
Francisco Cordero pitched a scoreless ninth, but it was not a save situation. He's still one save shy of 40 for the season.
Joey Votto's 25th home run gave him a career high.
With the win, Johnny Cueto joins fellow starting pitchers Bronson Arroyo, Homer Bailey, Edinson Volquez, and Justin Lehr to not have a losing record.
Since both the Brewers and Reds won, the Reds have clinched fourth place in the NL Central.

Final - 10.3.2009	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H	E
Pittsburgh Pirates	1	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	4	6	0
Cincinnati Reds	0	1	1	3	0	2	0	1	X	8	11	0
WP: Johnny Cueto (11 - 11) LP: Zach Duke (11 - 16)

Complete Coverage >

I'm gonna keep on loving you, Arroyo Speedwagon. Reds win, 6-1.

Brendanukkah — Thu, 01 Oct 2009 04:20:27 -0000

More photos » by Al Behrman - AP

Graynd Slaym. (AP Photo/Al Behrman)

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Joe Nuxhall Memorial Honorary Star of the Game

Laynce Nix. The Daynce Mix hit his first career grand slam to lead the Reds over the Cardinals.

Key Plays

Scott Rolen and Jay Bruce led off the second inning with walks, and RBI man Ryan Hanigan hit a single to score Rolen. Bronson Arroyo then singled to load the bases, and Drew Stubbs also drew a walk to force in Bruce. Reds 2, Cardinals 0.
The walks continued to haunt in the third inning. Brandon Phillips walked, Rolen doubled, and Bruce walked again. Up stepped Laynce Nix and bye bye baseball. Grand slam! Reds 6, Cardinals 0.
Nix was still feeling swell after his homer, and let Skip Schumaker's ball fall under his glove for a double. Albert Pujols then drove him in with a single. Reds 6, Cardinals 1.
Bronson left the game with one out in the ninth, after having walked Troy Glaus. Nick Masset came in and gave up a single to Pujols, a fielder's choice to Matt Holliday, and a walk to Colby Rasmus, before striking out Ryan Ludwick with the bases loaded. REDS WINNARS!

via FanGraphs

Other Notes

The Reds can do no worse than split the season series with the Cardinals. A win tomorrow gives them a 9-7 advantage.
The Reds went 18-9 in September, the only month in which they did not have double digit losses. Four of those losses were to Colorado, and five of those losses were by only one run.
John Smoltz complained that the game balls had not been properly rubbed with mud. Obviously it didn't seem to affect Arroyo, but Bronson did share this interesting nugget: "They don't mud them up as much here as they do at other places. It was a cool night, and it's hard to hold on sometimes." Could a mudding deficiency help explain some of our historically lackluster pitching?
Who says Dusty Baker ruins arms? Listen to why he pulled Arroyo with one out in the ninth: "He said he was running on empty and his legs were spent," Baker said. "When I heard that, you go get him, especially late in the season, 111 pitches and Pujols up there."
Joey Votto and Paul Janish both hit doubles. It was Votto's 16th double in September and Janish's tenth (out of 37 and 20 on the year, respectively).
Arroyo won 15 games for the second year in a row. He hasn't given up more than three runs in a game since July 22.
The Brewers lost, so the Reds are only one game out of third place.

Final - 9.30.2009	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H	E
St. Louis Cardinals	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	5	0
Cincinnati Reds	0	2	4	0	0	0	0	0	X	6	8	0
WP: Bronson Arroyo (15 - 13) LP: John Smoltz (1 - 3)

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