SB Nation - Daniel Moskos

A Few AFL PITCHf/x Leaders

Harry Pavlidis — Tue, 10 Nov 2009 00:42:00 -0000

More photos » by Manuel Balce Ceneta - AP

Drew Storen can do this for real, too.

I like the Arizona Fall League. I've been tracking and classifying a lot pitches, thanks to the PITCHf/x installations in Peoria and Surprise. Nearly 10,000 pitches through Saturday's Rising Stars Game.

Let's take a look-see at some of my favorite stats. These are based only on PITCHf/x data. Some, such as ground ball rates, can be expanded to cover the non-PITCHf/x games, too. But I'm not. I'm also collapsing across pitch types due to sample size issues and a lack of finality on many of those classifications.

Anyway, on with the Strasburg. I mean Storen. I mean show.

The minimum pitch total I'm using is 59. Read Hardball Times on Tuesday and you'll figure out why. Hint: Aaron Crow's pitch total.

	Whiff
Lee Hyde	0.458
Sergio Santos	0.396
Michael Dunn	0.377
Scott Gorgen	0.373
Craig Kimbrel	0.353
Robert Wooten	0.345
Stephen Strasburg	0.339
Daniel Moskos	0.333
Zach Braddock	0.333
Jenrry Mejia	0.317

	B:CS
Drew Storen	1.4
Michael Dunn	1.4
Zach Braddock	1.4
Robert Wooten	1.4
Daniel Meszaros	1.4
Dustin Richardson	1.5
Matthew Long	1.6
Mike Leake	1.6
Logan Ondrusek	1.6
Aaron Hartsock	1.6

	In Wide Zone
Wilton Lopez	0.646
Logan Ondrusek	0.646
Mike Parisi	0.632
Jeff Lyman	0.604
Carlton Smith	0.597
Ryohei Tanaka	0.591
Bryan Augenstein	0.589
Ian Kennedy	0.580
Michael Dunn	0.579
Drew Storen	0.577

	GB%
Aaron Hartsock	75%
Stephen Strasburg	73%
Carlton Smith	69%
Josh Wilkie	67%
Connor Graham	64%
Jeff Mandel	63%
Jenrry Mejia	63%
Wilton Lopez	62%
Tommy Mendoza	59%
Javy Guerra	59%

	LD%
Wilton Lopez	0%
Spencer Steedley	0%
Steve Hirschfeld	0%
Brennan Garr	4%
Sergio Santos	5%
Joshua Fields	6%
Javy Guerra	6%
Aaron Hartsock	6%
Daniel Meszaros	7%
Drew Storen	8%

Notice how well Mejia and Strasburg rank in Whiffs and Ground balls? Storen is all over the place, along with Dunn.

Danny Moskos Bombed in AFL Rising Stars Game

Charlie — Sun, 08 Nov 2009 22:39:50 -0000

First, the good news from last night's AFL Rising Stars game: Chase D'Arnaud and Jose Tabata both went 2-for-3. Neither of Tabata's hits left the infield, and the first of D'Arnaud's was a shallow fly that no one could get to, but Tabata looked good on the basepaths, and D'Arnaud's last hit was stung.

Daniel Moskos, though... the poor guy has nothing. The announcers said that the stadium gun had him as high as 92, but they also said that Tanner Scheppers hit 99 at least once. Scheppers looked great, mostly throwing fastball after fastball, but I'm still betting that gun was a little hot and Moskos was topping out at something like 90. Then there was the mystery of Moskos' supposedly brilliant slider, which he never seems to throw when I'm watching him pitch. What he does seem to throw are a couple of different fastballs, a terrible curveball that doesn't break much, and a change that has a bit of late movement and is actually a pretty good pitch. Now, boundaries between pitches aren't absolute, and so I suppose it's possible that someone might see what I saw as the curveball or the changeup and call it a slider. That's fine. But to say he has a good slider? I'm sorry, I just don't see it.

I admit it might have been a little harder than usual to tell last night, since opposing batters swung at and made hard contact with almost everything Moskos threw. Overall, he allowed four runs on five hits, including three doubles and a homer, in two thirds of an inning. His defense didn't really help him, but opposing batters were still just destroying him.

Tabata, D'Arnaud, Moskos to Play in Rising Stars Showcase

Charlie — Sun, 08 Nov 2009 00:32:46 -0000

Jose Tabata, Chase D'Arnaud and Daniel Moskos will be in the AFL's Rising Stars Showcase here soon (at 8:15 EST), and it'll be free to watch at MLB.com.

Since I've been sick all week I've rented about nine movies, which is nine more than I did in the past three months or so before that. I stumbled into one called Sugar that I was shocked I didn't know about. Maybe most of you are familiar with it already, but since it missed me I figure it missed some of you too.

It's an excellent film about a 20-year-old Dominican pitcher, Miguel "Sugar" Santos, who gets called up from the Dominican academies to the spring training camp of a fictitious major league franchise, impresses the team's coaches, and skips the rookie leagues on his way to his team's Single-A franchise in Iowa. Called the Bridgetown Swing, it's a barely disguised version of the Quad Cities River Bandits, a real-life Cardinals affiliate--the Swing play their games in Quad Cities' ballpark.

There isn't much about the movie that doesn't feel real; the first half hour or so is set in the Dominican, and many of the coaches there are actual Dominican coaches (such as former Nats special assistant Jose Rijo, who ironically was fired around the time the movie came out, for skimming bonuses). The outstanding lead actor of the film, Argenis Perez Soto, was a hotel worker (and amateur baseball player) in San Pedro. Some of the actors obviously aren't great baseball players, but the in-game scenes mostly look about right. There were a few details that seemed strange (such as the idea that a team would allow a talented but raw pitcher to throw six-plus innings in his pro debut), but overall it really looks like the writers knew what they were doing.

The plot is complex, in a great way--this isn't a formulaic sports movie by any means. Most of it focuses on Soto's character's difficulties adjusting to life in Iowa. He lives with host parents who are sweet and love baseball, but aren't incredibly culturally sensitive and won't miss him much when he's gone. He struggles to order anything other than French toast in restaurants. Hoping to finish building a house in the Dominican for his mother, he puts tremendous pressure on himself, then comes apart when he starts to struggle. There's an interesting contrast in the film between Miguel and Brad Johnson, a black American player on Miguel's team who was recently drafted in the first round out of Stanford. If baseball doesn't work out, Brad muses that he'll probably rely on his Stanford history degree and teach. Miguel has no such backup plan.

Anyway, this is a great film if you haven't seen it--full of intriguing little tidbits for the minor league fans among you, but worth seeing even if you couldn't care less about the minors.

Danny Moskos Hit Hard in AFL Appearance

Charlie — Mon, 26 Oct 2009 05:30:41 -0000

-P- Daniel Moskos got rocked for two runs in an AFL inning Saturday. To his credit, he's stayed in control in the offense-friendly AFL with bunches of strikeouts and grounders. Still, I've read some vague compliments of Moskos from people like Kevin Goldstein recently (subscription required), and while Goldstein's comment was hardly over the top, I have to admit I don't really see anything here yet. Moskos struck out barely more than four and a half batters per nine this year in a league in which he wasn't particularly young. Even accounting for the grounders and for improvement throughout the year, that just isn't enough. (And the solid ERA doesn't predict much without other good stats to back it up.)

To say that he has the requisite hint of upside you get when you take a failed starter and put him in the bullpen is basically true, but still gives him too much credit. Most successful relievers who fit that profile are guys that throw hard but have control issues, or even guys who have success as minor league starters but whose organizations believe are best suited to relief anyway. (I'm thinking here of someone like Jonathan Broxton, who posted excellent numbers as a minor league starter but burst onto the scene as a member of the Dodgers' bullpen, and stayed there.) Moskos doesn't have much of anything--he doesn't have great stuff, or great strikeout rates, or even great control. There aren't even injuries that might explain some of his poor performances, the way there was for Sean Burnett, another former top pick who became an uninspiring lefty reliever. All Moskos has are grounders, and the fact that he's a lefty.

Credit where credit is due, though--he's been very good since August or so. And at least I was able to get through two paragraphs about Moskos without mentioning a certain Orioles catcher.

-P- The Padres have hired Red Sox assistant Jed Hoyer as their new GM. Hoyer interviewed for the Pirates GM job when it was open two years ago, and he inherits a desperate situation in San Diego, so it'll be interesting to see how his GM career parallels that of Neal Huntington.

Ross Ohlendorf Participating in Department of Agriculture Internship

Charlie — Fri, 23 Oct 2009 15:26:50 -0000

More photos » by David Zalubowski - AP

6 months ago: Pittsburgh Pirates starting pitcher Ross Ohlendorf works against the Colorado Rockies in the first inning of a baseball game on Friday, June 19, 2009, in Denver. (AP Photo/David Zalubowski)

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If you haven't heard what Ross Ohlendorf is up to this offseason, well, wow:

One week after the season ended, Ohlendorf began an eight-week internship with the Department of Agriculture in Washington, D.C. It's a highly unusual endeavor for a professional baseball player, but to those who know Ohlendorf well, his plans to conduct research in conjunction with the National Animal Identification System comes as no surprise...

How Ohlendorf ended up in D.C. is an interesting story in itself. U.S. Secretary of Agriculture [and former fringe presidential candidate] Tom Vilsack grew up in Pittsburgh as a Pirates fan. He was invited to PNC Park this summer to throw out the ceremonial first pitch, which, fittingly, was caught by Ohlendorf, who asked to receive the pitch once he learned that it was Vilsack who was taking the mound.

Ohlendorf talked to Vilsack briefly that day and later contacted him again to ask if he could be put to work this fall...

Ohlendorf will work 20 hours each week, giving him plenty of time to work on his conditioning.

-P- Stephen Strasburg was rocked in his second pro start in Arizona. Among Pirates prospects playing there, Jose Tabata, Donald Veal, Daniel Moskos and Anthony Watson have all played well, while Chase D'Arnaud and Brian Friday have struggled so far. None of them have played more than a handful of games.

Ross Detwiler Claims First MLB Win, 2-1 Over The Lowly New York Mets.

Ed Chigliak — Tue, 29 Sep 2009 02:55:33 -0000

More photos » by Manuel Balce Ceneta - AP

2 months ago: Washington Nationals' starter Ross Detwiler pitches during the first inning of a baseball game against the New York Mets, Monday, Sept. 28, 2009, in Washington. (AP Photo/Manuel Balce Ceneta)

Browse more photos »

• Ross Detwiler's First MLB Win...The Mets' SNY announce team of Gary Cohen, former Nationals' announcer and Mets' pitcher Ron Darling and Seinfeld star Keith Hernandez criticized Ross Detwiler at one point, claiming that he should still be pitching in the minors as raw as he was, and on any team other than the Mets or Nationals he probably would be, but Ross Detwiler, (the 6th overall pick and the 3rd pitcher taken in the '07 Draft behind #1 overall David Price and left-hander Daniel Moskos, who went 4th overall to the Pirates), was able to beat the Mets tonight, so...Enjoy the rebuild Citi Field season ticket holders!!!

Detwiler goes 6.0 IP and allows just 7 hits, 1 walk and 1 ER as he earns his first MLB W...Here's How It Happened...

• Miss The Game? The DC Faithful Are Still Watching...

• Check Out The SB Nation's New York Mets Blog: Amazin' Avenue GameThread.

• "Revenge of the softball girls" - by Doghouse.

FULL GAME REPORT AFTER THE JUMP...

• A productive groundout by Ian Desmond moves Justin Maxwell from second to third after a leadoff hit off NY Mets' right-hander Nelson Figueroa in the first inning tonight, and Ryan Zimmerman follows with an RBI flyout to short right that scores Maxwell on a close play at home, and that’s all the Nationals need for Washington’s first run...oh, that and an error on a backhand attempt by David "Gold Glove" Wright who turns an infield hit into a runner on second to start the game and Ryan Zimmerman’s 102nd RBI.

• After two quick frames, Ross Detwiler gives up a two-out walk to Angel Pagan. A hard-hit grounder by Luis Castilla gets by third when Ryan Zimmerman tries a Zimmermanesque sidestep stab. David Wright steps in with two and two out...Ross Detwiler gets D. Wright looking to end the Mets’ first threat...Still 0-0 after four, Detwiler gives up a leadoff single to Anderson Hernandez in the Mets' fifth, and Nelson Figueroa reaches first safely on a sac attempt when Josh Bard throws late to second, so Angel Pagan’s bunt, which follows Figueroa's, moves two runners into scoring postition with one down. Detwiler gets a line drive out to Ian Desmond at short from Luis Castillo and gets a groundout to short from David Wright. 5.0 scoreless for Detwiler in what is probably his last start of ‘09.

• The Mets get on the board in the sixth. Detwiler gives up a single to center by Carlos Beltran, who takes second on a wild pitch and scores one out later when Fernando Tatis singles to right. 1-1 ballgame. Another wild pitch puts two runners in scoring position with Nelson Figueroa at bat, but Detwiler gets the opposing pitcher swinging to end the top of the frame.

• Mike Morse gives DC back their lead!! Solo shot to right to start the Nationals’ sixth, 2-1 DC. 3 HR’s in 3-straight games for Morse who’s now matched his career total coming into the season...Justin Maxwell singles to start the Nationals’ seventh, and moves to second on a sac bunt by Desmond, but then Zimmerman grounds to short, and J-Max runs anyway and gets thrown out at third...Dunn flies out, DC will have to settle for a one-run lead.

• Jason Bergmann walks the first batter he faces in the seventh but gets out of the frame with the lead when he K’s Jeff Francoeur, throwing a high heater outside by Frenchy with two on and two out. Bergmann comes back in the eighth and retires the side in order, to put the Nationals three outs away from their 53rd win and Ross Detwiler’s first.

• MacDougal Will Do It...After allowing 4 hits and 5 runs in his last two outings, Mike MacDougal...for the first time in 6 trips to the hill...was able to pitch a scoreless frame as he converted the 16th of 17 save opportunities this season and closed out Ross Detwiler's first Major League win...

Nationals win, 2-1 final.

For The Completists, Full Game Report Starts....NOW!!!

New York Mets At Washington Nationals. Game 156 Of 162.

GAME REPORT:

Angel Pagan lines a little too hard to right where Mike Morse takes an awkard leap to catch the first out. Luis Castillo flies weakly to Morse. David Wright lines over first for a two-out double off DC lefty Ross Detwiler. Ian Desmond fields and fires to first to get Carlos Beltran and end the top of the first...Nelson Figueroa gives up a leadoff hit to Justin Maxwell on a high chopper to third that David Wright can’t backhand. Ian Desmond’s groundout to second moves J-Max to third. Ryan Zimmerman flies to short right, Maxwell tags up and breaks for home as Jeff Francoeur throws in and up the line, 1-0 as Maxwell avoids the tag. Adam Dunn K’s swinging to end the first.

Mike Morse hustles back and catches the first out of the second at the wall off Jeff Francoeur’s bat. Ian Desmond throws out Fernado Tatis. Omir Santos flies out just left of center to Justin Maxwell...Josh Willingham hangs one up in the air for Carlos Beltran to catch. Mike Morse rips one to the hole at short, and Anderson Hernandez just knocks it down. Josh Bard pops up the first pitch he sees. Alberto Gonzalez grounds into a force to end the DC second.

Anderson Hernandez grounds out to Ian Desmond. Nelson Figueroa grounds out to third. Ross Detwiler walks Angel Pagan with two down. Luis Castillo gets knocked down but not hit by a fastball inside and ends up singling by Ryan Zimmerman at third when he tries to snatch it instead of getting in front of it. First and third for Wright. Detwiler hits the inside corner with a two-strike fastball for a backwards K...Detwiler gets called out on strikes. Justin Maxwell flies out to the wall in right center. Ian Desmond rrrips a two-out triple off the out-of-town scoreboard. Ryan Zimmerman walks with two down. Adam Dunn grounds to Luis Castillo at second to end the third.

Ian Desmond throws out Carlos Beltran. Jeff Francoeur grounds out to Dunn at first. Fernando Tatis’ double falls in fair down the line in right. Omir Santos flies to center to end the Mets’ fourth...Josh Willingham chases a slider into the left-hand batter’s box. Mike Morse grounds sharply to short, Anderson Hernandez gets there but throws it by first. Morse to second. Josh Bard grounds out to first to advance Morse to third. Alberto Gonzalez gets the intentionals to set Detwiler up with two on and two out. Detwiler K’s to end the fourth.

Anderson "Elvis" Hernandez singles to center, Justin Maxwell charges in to field it on the curly-W in the grass. Figueroa drops a bunt in front of home, Bard throws to second too late, and Desmond holds it at second while Figueroa slowly runs to first. Angel Pagan bunts both runners into scoring position. Luis Castillo lines out to short. David Wright grounds out to short to end the fifth...Justin Maxwell pops out to right. Ian Desmond drops a bunt toward third, Wright barehands and throws behind the runner and past Tatis behind first. Desmond takes second. Ryan Zimmerman gets a two-strike slider inside that’s called strike three. Adam Dunn gets the intentionals. Josh WIllingham grounds into a force at second to end the fifth.

Carlos Beltran singles to center to start the sixth. Jeff Francoeur’s up, Detwiler throws a fastball by home, Beltran to second. Francoeur K’s chasing a high two-strike fastball outside. Fernando Tatis lines to center, Beltran scores and it’s tied at 1-1. Omir Santos flies out to center. Anderson Hernandez grounds to second and reaches safely when Alberto Gonzalez’s throw is late. Another wild pitch moves both runners up. Nelson Figueroa K’s swinging to end the frame...Mike Morse goes the other way with a high fly ball to right and GONE!!!! HR for Morse, 2-1 DC!! Josh Bard pops out. Alberto Gonzalez flies out to left. Jorge Padilla lines out to end the sixth.

Jason Bergmann tries to hold the lead for Detwiler. Leadoff walk to Angel Pagan is not a good start. Luis Castilla’s sac bunt moves Pagan to second. David Wright grounds out to Desmond at short for the second out. Carlos Beltran gets two balls and then gets the intentionals. Jeff Francoeur K’s chasing a curve in the dirt!!! Called strike three!!!!...Justin Maxwell vs Sean Green. J-Max shoots a low-liner to right. Ian Desmond bunts J-Max over. Ryan Zimmerman grounds to short, Maxwell breaks for third and gets thrown out. Figueroa out for Pedro Feliciano. Adam Dunn flies out to left to end the seventh.

Fernando Tatis flies to right and Mike Morse has to make a basket catch to avoid Justin Maxwell as he cuts in front of the right fielder. Jason Bergmann gets a line-drive out to center from Omir Santos. Daniel Murphy pops out to third to end the Mets’ eighth...Bobby Parnell vs Willingham to start the Nationals’ eighth. Elijah Dukes in on to run. Mike Morse K’s swinging. Josh Bard grounds into an inning ending DP...Wait for it...

Mike MacDougal vs Cory Sullivan. Sullivan grounds to first, ONE!! Angel Pagan grounds to Desmond, TWO! Luis Castillo grounds to short, Desmond to first, Ballgame!!! Nationals win, 2-1 final. Ross Detwiler gets his first career W. Congrats, Mr. Detwiler!!!!

Nationals now 53-103.

NL Central Farm System Values

erik — Thu, 05 Mar 2009 11:00:09 -0000

On Monday we looked Victor Wang's fantastic research on the "hidden value of prospects", and applied his surplus values to the farm systems of the AL West. Here again are the surplus values for your review before we jump into the NL Central.*

Top 10 hitting prospects	$32.5M
Top 11-25 hitters	$22.3
Top 26-50 hitters	$20.8
Top 51-75 hitters	$12.6
Top 76-100 hitters	$11.1
Top 10 pitching prospects	$13.5
Top 11-25 pitchers	$14.2
Top 26-50 pitchers	$14.2
Top 51-75 pitchers	$10.8
Top 76-100 pitchers	$8.7
Grade B pitchers (as graded by Sickels)	$6.5
Grade B hitters	$4.9
Grade C pitchers 22 or younger	$1.9
Grade C pitchers 23 or older	$1.3
Grade C hitters 22 or younger	$0.62
Grade C hitters 23 or older	$0.45

*I decreased the values thanks to an astute reader's observation. Last time they were $4.8M/WSAB -- what we would have expected if the FA market continued to grow by 10% -- but that's too high considering the chilly off-season market. Victor's research was published 14 months ago, times have changed. It's now set at $4.5M/WSAB, which is higher than current spending, but is on par with last year's free agent market.

Here's how the NL Central's farm systems fared:

via www.editgrid.com

We'll start with the bad first.

Houston, $50.1M: The Astros had only one top 100 prospect: Jason Castro, their first round pick from last year. 1/4 of their farm system value is wrapped up in two high school pitchers that threw nearly all their innings in the Appy last year. Suffice to say this system stinks.
Chicago, $57.6M: The Cubs actually may be worse in terms of surplus value. The team placed just two prospects in BA's top 100, Josh Vitters and Jeff Samardzija. I included Samardzija but considered leaving him out, because "The Shark" signed a 5-year, $10M major league contract, so I'm not sure how much surplus value you can say he has. With Sean Marshall as the favorite for the Cubs' 5th starter job, Samardzija had better be one heck of a stopper coming out of the bullpen. Oh, and I have to scoff at these Jake Peavy to the Cubs rumors. What are they going to trade to get Peavy, exactly?
Pittsburgh, $76.9M: The Pirates have Pedro Alvarez, Andrew McCutchen and Jose Tabata not much else. 3B Neil Walker has been in the top 100 three times but posted a .296 wOBA in AAA last year, and has now been downgraded to a C+ grade by Sickels. He's also now buried behind Andy LaRoche and Alvarez on the depth chart. Here's another nail for the Dave Littlefield, Pirate GM coffin: Brad Lincoln and Daniel Moskos combined value was less than 4% of the team's farm system value.
Cincy, $78.5M: One can very safely assume the Reds' farm system is down from last year after graduating just a ridiculously good class of Jay Bruce, Joey Votto, Edinson Volquez and Johnny Cueto. (Homer Bailey too, I guess). Their system still looks relatively healthy with Yonder Alonso, Todd Frazier leading the way and six B grade prospects that make up 55% of their farm system's total value. Consider me a Drew Stubbs believer, if for no other reason than his glove. The Reds also heavily invested in Latin America this past year, signing Juan Duran and Yorman Rodriguez to large bonuses. Jocketty has a lot to work with here, but hopefully he has learned his lesson after the Mulder trade.

Now to the cream of the NL Central crop, the Brewers ($99.7M) and the Cardinals ($98.7).

Rather than a lot more explanation, here's a couple of graphs illustrating distribution of for these two systems:

The Brewers a strong depth of hitting prospects; the Cardinals have a 1-2 punch of Colby Rasmus and Brett Wallace at the top. Both players should be permanently entrenched the Cardinal lineup by 2010, if not sooner.

Concluding, the Cubs had better win now while they are in "win now" mode. While they look to be in position to do so for the next few years, the Reds, Brewers and Cardinals are all pumping impressive talent up the pipeline, and the Pirates can't help but to slowly but surely improve under Neal Huntington's watch. As for Houston, well...things could be ugly for a while.