SB Nation - Carlos Lee

Astros Hot Stove Noise 12/09: Hawkins could be a Brewer? Wade talking trade for Lindstrom? and a hefty surprise, too

DyingQuail — Wed, 09 Dec 2009 17:02:30 -0000

More photos » by Jeffrey Boan - AP

This is not who you want to trade for to close out baseball games.

The winter meeting this year have been phenomenal to follow via Twitter. Unfortunately, the tweeting yesterday was primarily about a lot of non-news—save the Yankees/Tigers/Dbacks blockbuster. Today, for Astros fans, things have heated up on the stove.

The first chunk of news this morning is that the Brewers are having "fast-track" talks with LaTroy Hawkins. Per our discussion about the closer situation yesterday, I'm cool with the Brewcrew over paying for Mr. Hawkins' service. The more I've thought all of our options out, the more I've fallen in love with idea of a Alberto Arias / Mike Gonzalez platoon. Whether any of the news about Hawkins and the Brewers actually means the Brewers will ink Hawkins, or if Hawkins has interest, remains to be seen. I just hope this doesn't mean we're raising our bottom line on Hawkins.

The more surprising bit of news from this morning is that the Astros are apparently in extensive talks with the Marlins for Matt Lindstrom. Yes, Matt Lindstrom of the 4.47FIP/4.65xFIP/5.04tRA in 2009. The same Lindstrom of the non-impressive 2009 and not projected to be too much improved in 2010, either (CHONE and Bill James). Say it ain't so Eddy.

There's no word on who would be involved in this deal, but I don't think anyone here would be too pleased. We're not a team in a position to trade for big-league talent, we're a team in a position to either purchase it on the market, or unload a veteran contract for youth. That's it.

Unfortunately, it looks like Eddy is in the works on a trade. Footer tweeted that Wade's had a lot of discussion about a possible trade. Judging by the rumor mill, this trade sounds like it's either Lindstrom, or Rafael Soriano. Of course, the later is just something more speculative by JJO, who I don't even believe is at the winter meetings, but those are the only two trades that have any legitimate basis tagged to the Astros. JJO's reasoning on the trade is basically that one team has too many closers, one team has too few, and that Ed Wade likes Soriano's agent. This doesn't exactly make a ton of sense. That's not exactly why a trade would get done, seemingly—I hope.

The only way I'd like the Soriano deal, is it involved this ridiculously far fetched rumor about Carlos Lee being a trade candidate for the Braves. I would take Soriano for Lee straight up. It would make my entire life 2009-2010 winter.

Since that's not happening, I will continue to cross my fingers all day and wait for the news that the Astros have inked Mike Gonzalez and that LaTroy Hawkins got over paid by the Brewers.

[UPDATE] It's looks like Ed Wade really might being trying to trade for a closer. He indicates in this McTaggart interview that we have pieces that make sense for a trade. Hopefully Bobby Heck chokes him out before he can pick up his cell phone and tell some other GM "deal."

Cecil Cooper from take off to landing

DyingQuail — Sun, 08 Nov 2009 12:00:27 -0000

by Gene J. Puskar - AP

6 months ago: Houston Astros manager Cecil Cooper walks in the dugout during a baseball game against the Pittsburgh Pirates in Pittsburgh Saturday, May 30, 2009. (AP Photo/Gene J. Puskar)

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A one-hour plane ride and two torn out pages of the Bill James Handbook, that’s all I have. Perhaps it’s because I’m a grizzled veteran now, but probably because I know that I work best under a deadline (see: 3 AM the ~~night~~ morning before any important paper due in college); whatever the reason for this hare-brained idea, that’s what I’m working with to produce this post.

If you didn’t believe me when I said that I was going to be using the interesting things I’ve stumbled upon in the Bill James Handbook as fodder for 30 or so posts—believe.

Today’s topic: Cecil Cooper’s managerial statistics. The juicy details: after the jump.

James has a couple of pretty useful measures for us to talk about what we got with Coop in 2008 and 2009. Looking over the historical stats for various managers in the book, I noted how it seemed like a lot of these stats were driven by the kinds of teams that the managers could pull the levers with. But here’s the thing, Coop doesn’t really seem to fit that mold at all.

(Since I’m writing this in a bind, I don’t know that I’ll do the greatest job of holding onto my objectivity, but c’est la vie. I’ve now sat through an hour and half of delays and there will always be a part of me that will hold Coop in ire for 2009 being a second half nose-dive. My stasis is not the best for pure, rational objectivity.)

2008: The year that Coop drove us nuts with the running game

The Astros attempted 154 stolen bases, 81 sacrifices, and started the runners moving 112 times. Having loosely observed the various levels of these stats for other managers, this is a pretty high year for wasting outs. The stolen base has a negative run expectancy. A sacrifice obviously uses an out (and let’s be honest, Coop wasn’t using sacrifices in high leverage situations only), and I’ve never read anything on the statistical impact of sending the runners, but I imagine it’s probably not a wonderful statistical move.

Thinking about this team without the aid of FanGraphs, Baseball Reference, or any of my statistical sanctuaries, this wasn’t a shrewd move on Coop’s part. Subjectively, let’s think about the bone headed stolen base attempts we saw that year: Ty Wigginton and Carlos Lee on several occasions. There was, of course, the well-publicized "green light" policy and the neglect of telling Hunter Pence and Michael Bourn that simply being fast doesn’t mean you’ll steal with a lot of success.

These numbers don’t capture their effect. They’re just a count of attempts, but just thinking about the number of attempts with the cogs that were cranking the wheels, it’s not hard to say that this wasn’t the finest piece of utility maximization in the history of managing.

2009: The year that Coop, seemingly, destroyed the bull pen

There are only two numbers I need to give you (four really, but get off my back): 116 and 449 (108 and 488). The first number is the number of times that a reliever was used in consecutive days and the second is the total number of relievers used. The non-parenthetical numbers are 2009’s totals and the parenthetical are 2008.

In twelve less games than he had to work with 2008, Coop increased the number of consecutive days, while using nearly forty less relievers. While this probably isn’t the most damning usage of relief pitchers ever, let’s consider who Coop was working with:

Chris Sampson: Coming off an off-season elbow surgery.
Geoff Geary: Coming off an off-season hip surgery.
Doug Brocail: Coming off a season where he’d just been abused in the 8^th inning all year long. And yes, he was over the age of forty in both instances and had a faulty ticker.
Jose Valverde: Coming off his shredded calf muscle in April.
Relief pitcher X: The guy I should have mentioned but have forgotten as I realize I’m running out of time.

Just like with the running game in 2008, this isn’t to say that Coop definitively killed the Astros bullpen because determining that would take a lot more evidence than I have. Both of these brief blurbs are to point out that Coop had bad tendencies as a manager. The usage pattern in 2009 for our relievers was bone-headed. There’s no other way for me to describe it. During all of our discussions of what helped the Astros out pace their Pythag record in 2008, we all came back to our successful late-inning relievers. The second of 2009: we were trying to plug the links as they sprang up; ultimately, our ship sank.

So what’s the overall point of this (besides the challenge of writing all this between takeoff and landing)? To say that these are the small changes in managerial tactics that I think can hopefully give the Astros a better starting point in 2010. Brad Mills, please take note.

Fantasy Baseball: It's Time for You to Love Bobby Abreu

Ian, yo — Sat, 07 Nov 2009 02:16:49 -0000

More photos » by Chris Carlson - AP

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Yesterday Bobby Abreu signed a two-year, 19 million dollar deal with the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim. If we were to draft for 2010 today, my guess is that Abreu would be taken around 50th overall which is right about where he was drafted in the 2009 preseason. In 2009, Abreu put up his seventh consecutive season ( eight of his last nine) with at least 100 RBI's and his eleventh season in a row with more than 95 runs where only three of which he scored less than 100 runs.

Abreu will probably be drafted around the likes of Carlos Lee, Shane Victorino and Curtis Granderson. Each one of these players can contribute in a few categories but Abreu puts up good numbers in four categories (three at a high level) and can still give you some power.

Abreu staying in LAA should make him just as valuable as he was in 2009 since the Angel's are an aggressive team on the base paths. In 2009, he had a small drop in his LD% and if that can raise back up, we could be seeing more RBI's and maybe see some of those turn into home runs. Over the last few years, he hasn't been known for his power, but he can still give you double digit home runs while putting up excellent numbers across the board. If you're in the third or fourth round and you're enticed by Ichiro Suzuki, you may want to grab that shortstop or second baseman and wait a few more rounds and likely get equal or greater value in Bobby Abreu.

Poll

Which one would you prefer in 2010?

Bobby Abreu

18 votes

Ichiro Suzuki

13 votes

Nelson Cruz

21 votes

Adam Jones

16 votes

68 votes | Poll has closed

18 days later, Astros owner, Drayton McLane, still doesn't get it

DyingQuail — Mon, 26 Oct 2009 11:15:11 -0000

via images.chron.com

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If I would have know how prescient it would be when I wrote it, I probably wouldn't have. But I wrote it, and now we have to deal with the fact that Drayton McLane still hasn't figured it out.

How much money is spent or how good the team has been in years past, is not actually what determines the on field product. What determines the on field product is the quality of assets that are currently being invested in.

$100 million for Carlos Lee. $16.5 million of Kaz Matsui. $800,000 for Cecil Cooper in 2010. Easily $8 million over the last two years on throwaway, scrap heap, rehab projects to fill out the rotation, bullpen, and bench. Taking on two years of Miguel Tejada and Jose Valverde. These are all the investments that Drayton McLane was willing to fund, seemingly no questions asked.

From everything that I've read from everyone who has any access to the Astros front office, Ed Wade, et al. wanted Acta. Acta, by all accounts, wanted to be back with the Astros, but Acta also had his future to look out for, too.

If we were to some how discover what the exact dollar figure on the third year Acta was bargaining for, I'm sure we would collectively slam our heads against our desks/walls/keyboards with so much force that it'd probably register on the richter scale.

It's not that I am/was/will be convinced of the righteousness of Manny Acta. I don't doubt the ability of Brad Mills to be a great manager. I also don't think Phil Garner's rehiring would be the end of the world. Now, I don't think rehiring Garner would be a great thing, because I don't think that Phil Garner was a good manager. He was always an average, to below average guy in my book. I always saw his fate as the fate of something determined by his place at and timing. Were it not for Drayton scrambling for scape goats, I don't doubt that Garner might still be around. We get can into the why's of my thoughts on Garner's managerial capabilities, but it's not the point. It's not what bothers me about this.

What bothers me is this: Drayton McLane continues to show an inability to take intelligent risks, to invest wisely, and trust the people he pays to make sound decisions. We've done a lot of talking about signaling. That's probably because we have too many econ-based readers, but it's the truth none the less.

Garner is a bad signal. He's a bad signal because it shows a lack of willingness to try something new. To push forward and reinvent the team. It's some sort of half-hearted attempt to make an amend to a man who was probably wronged in his firing, but it's the wrong way to make amends. Amend, after all, means to change. Taking Phil Garner back as our manager means that the Astros are going to keep sticking it out in the same "we can win with what we've got" mentality in my mind's eye. Maybe that's incorrect, but I don't think I'm that far off the mark.

Hiring Manny Acta, on the other hand, signals the exact opposite. It signals that the Astros are willing to invest in a young, charismatic, smart, well-liked, manager who could man the helm for years to come. That would be change. Acta seemed like a guy who wasn't worried about bucking convention, and that feels like something this team desperately needs in the next few years.

Instead, yesterday, Astros fans were given a clear signal from Drayton McLane. The signal is that he still doesn't get it. My gut feeling is that he never will. I guess I can't blame him. He got to ride the gravy train of the Bagwell/Biggio years with hometown-hero discounts, cheaper to maintain farm systems, and had the added bonus of a stadium honeymoon period. There was no lesson to be learned.

Thankfully, I assume that he can only go a few more years before he starts looking for potential suitors, and maybe at that time we'll get an owner who stops resting on his laurels, which, in every quote I've ever heard/read Drayton make in the last two or three years, he does. I'll be the first person to admit it: Drayton's been a successful owner. He's given us a great franchise during most of his tenure, and has, at times, spent lavishly. But that doesn't actually make him a great owner. It just makes him an owner who was able to play the hand he was dealt well. The test of greatness, though, is the ability to adapt.

At the end of the day, I get the feeling that this wasn't about the money. Instead, I get the feeling that this was more about philosophy. Drayton McLane's philosophy will continue to dominate baseball operations and thwart the necessary innovation, creativity, and inherent risk-taking that will possibly be necessary for this ball club to be worth the cost of admission in the next few years. It seems like Drayton doesn't see it that way. And that's a real shame—for us.

Roster Breakdown: The Infield

davoag — Wed, 14 Oct 2009 18:40:35 -0000

More photos » by Kathy Willens - AP

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This process took a little longer than I expected. In part two of my review of the roster, I looked at every infielders' (including catchers) statistics and make some notes about last season and their future. Not necessarily scientific, but there is some interesting information in here. Friday should see part three, a look at the outfield. Till then, let's see what happened with the first half of the roster...

Lance Berkman, 1B

2009 Season Stats: 562 PA, .274/.399/.509, 31 doubles, 1 triple, 25 HR, 73 runs, 80 RBIs, 7 of 11 stolen bases, 98 strikeouts, 140 OPS+

WAR: 3.0

UZR: -4.5

VORP: 34.9

Notes: Two points to consider about Berkman's season. First, his April and August splits were horrible. His slow start and power vacuum in August led to the perception that his season was a disappointment. Still, though he managed just 12 hits in April, he also walked 17 times and hit five home runs. In August, he hit zero home runs but had an OBP over .400. This also leads into the second point: Berkman is aging, but his power drop over the past three seasons is in part due to an overall power outage in the National League. The Big Puma saw his home run total fall 26 percent over the past three seasons while his extra-base hits have fallen 5 percent. That's almost exactly the same percentage that the NL extra-base hit total dropped over the same time period (5.6%). The NL home run total dropped 8.2 percent, but I'm guessing Berkman's drop in homers is beginning to be due to age. Still, if he hits 30 home runs in the next year or two with 50+ XBH, I'm guessing the Astros will be happy.

Kazuo Matsui, 2B

2009 Season Stats: 533 PA, .250/.302/.357, 20 doubles, 2 triples, 9 HR, 56 runs, 46 RBIs, 19 of 22 stolen bases, 85 strikeouts, 75 OPS+

WAR: 0.5

UZR: -1.0

VORP: 0.4

Notes: I'll be up front: I don't care for Matsui. He's overpaid, he's injured too often and he doesn't get on base enough to bat high in the order. That's just my personal preference, but I wanted to get that out in the open in the interests of being objective. Matsui's line is down quite a bit from 2008 but combine the past two seasons and its almost exactly in line with his career line of .271/.325/.387. His Runs Created totals of 64 in 2007, 61 in 2008 and 56 in 2009 have been very consistent, but his BABiP was 40 points lower in 2009 at .285 than the previous season. Add to that a good stolen base rate of 85% over his career and Matsui does have his uses. The problem is, he's a No. 7 hitter, not a leadoff guy. Matsui's numbers should bounce back some in 2010, but don't bet on another .350 OBP.

Miguel Tejada, SS

2009 Season Stats: 673 PA, .313/.340/.455, 46 doubles, 1 triple, 14 HR, 83 runs, 86 RBIs, 5 of 7 stolen bases, 48 strikeouts, 110 OPS+

WAR: 2.6

UZR: -8.3

VORP: 43.7

Notes: Tejada had the highest VORP of any player on the Astros roster last season, for good reason. Though his OBP wasn't terribly high, he did hit a ton of doubles and actually had more extra-base hits than Berkman. In fact, Tejada led the National League in doubles in 2009. Tejada also struck out just 48 times, which was his lowest total since his 104 plate appearances in 1997. Of course, the flip side of that is it was also his lowest walk total since 1997, too. Tejada's high batting average was due in part because he had his highest BABiP since 2006, 20 points higher than his career BABiP of .298. Tejada once again led the National League in grounding into double plays and put up his highest season totals since 2006 in plate appearances, RBIs, hits and sacrifice flies. I'm not sure if this was the most successful contract push for a 35-year old in the post-steroids era, but it's got to be up there on the list, right?

Geoff Blum, 3B/Util

2009 Season Stats: 427 PA, .247/.314/.367, 14 doubles, 1 triple, 10 HR, 34 runs, 49 RBIs, 0 for 1 stolen bases, 61 strikeouts, 81 OPS+

WAR: 0.6

UZR: 0.3

VORP: -0.5

Notes: Blum was the only regular Astros infielder (besides the catchers) who posted a negative VORP. His crazy hair styles and home runs off the bench were fun and zany in 2004 when the Astros were making their run to the postseason. Now? Blum's a steady defender but doesn't have great range and is aging quickly. His OPS+ of 81 is not good for any position, much less a corner infield spot. Surprisingly, Blum's numbers last season were right in line with his career line of .250/.310/.367, but moving into his age 37 season, he's probably not going to equal those numbers in 2010. Blum started 94 games at third and seven at first, but is probably better suited as being the Astros number one pinch hitter next year.

Ivan Rodriguez, C

2009 Season Stats: 344 PA, .251/.280/.382, 15 doubles, 2 triples, 8 HR, 41 runs, 34 RBIs, 0 for 2 stolen bases, 74 strikeouts, 75 OPS+

WAR:0.7

VORP: -1.1

Notes: Ahh, Pudge. Has there been a more controversial free agent signing by the Astros in recent memory? Can someone split a room between stat guys and traditional scouting guys more than Pudge? The 37-year old couldn't walk if he were given two balls at the beginning of every at-bat. He would sometimes throw out baserunners, but was never talked about as a good handler of the pitching staff. Where do we go from there? Pudge started out strong for the Astros but faded late, and did the same thing after being traded to the Rangers. Starting him and Matsui together proved dangerous for the Astros offense, as they both posted sub-80 OPS+. When 1/4 of the starting lineup can't get on base or hit for power, something's not right.

Humberto Quintero, C

2009 Season Stats: 168 PA, .236/.286/.376, 8 doubles, 1 triple, 4 HR, 11 runs, 14 RBIs, 0 of 0 stolen bases, 41 strikeouts, 75 OPS+

WAR: 0.5

VORP: -0.4

Notes: Q suffered through a bad concussion this season, but still managed to get into 60 games this season. He started some after Pudge was traded away, but didn't impress offensively. In fact, he's never hit much in the majors, with a career line of .232/.275/.325. Quintero has a strong arm and handles the pitching staff well, but will be 30 next season in his last non-arbitration year. He makes sense as a backup to someone like Towles or Jason Castro, but putting him in the starting lineup is a stretch.

J.R. Towles, C

2009 Season Stats (Houston): 53 PA, .188/.250/.354, 2 doubles, 0 triples, 2 HR, 7 runs, 3 RBIs, 0 for 0 stolen bases, 16 strikeouts, 59 OPS+

WAR: 0.0

VORP: -1.7

Notes: What to do with Towles? The 25-year old couldn't stay healthy at Round Rock this season, getting only 56 games with the Express. When he did play, Towles hit the ball well and got on base at a good clip, sporting an OPS of .842 in Triple-A. That didn't translate to the pros in either of his two stints with the team, but it should. All Towles needs is a little time and opportunity.

Jeff Keppinger, Util

2009 Season Stats: 344 PA, .256/.320/.387, 13 doubles, 3 triples, 7 HR, 35 runs, 29 RBIs, 0 for 2 stolen bases, 33 strikeouts, 88 OPS+

WAR: 0.4

UZR: 5.7

VORP: 2.8

Notes: Keppinger was a late-spring addition, something former GM Gerry Hunsicker made into somewhat of an art form. Unfortunately, Keppinger didn't work out quite as well as guys like Mike Lamb and Billy Spiers did. That's not to say Keppinger was bad, as his batting was okay for a shortstop. Again, unfortunately, Keppinger played 59 games at third base. His range and glove made him an asset defensively there, but his bat is not good enough to hold up there for long periods of time. Still, Keppinger is a useful player who makes more sense on the bench than most of the Astros' reserves.

Darin Erstad, 1B

2009 Season Stats: 150 PA, .194/.268/.328, 8 doubles, 2 triples, 2 HR, 13 runs, 11 RBIs, 0 for 2 stolen bases, 31 strikeouts, 58 OPS+

WAR: -0.9

UZR: 7.9

VORP: -8.2

Notes: Erstad was a surpringly resurgent part of the 2008 team. Of course, in that campaign, Erstad played 40 games in center field. This season? Just one appearance in center field. Erstad could be a useful player, but he doesn't have the bat to be a first baseman, even as a backup, and doesn't have the arm to play in right field. That leaves him as the caddy for Carlos Lee. That's not necessarily a bad thing, but the next manager should not view Erstad as the first bat off the bench to pinch hit.

Edwin Maysonet, 2B

2009 Season Stats: 79 PA, .290/.333/.362, 2 doubles, 0 triples, 1 HR, 9 runs, 7 RBIs, 0 for 0 stolen bases, 19 strikeouts, 86 OPS+

WAR: 0.3

UZR: 8.3

VORP: 1.1

Notes: Maysonet wasn't one of the best prospects in the Astros system, but made the best debut of any Astros rookie position player in 2009. His average was high, but his OBP was not impressive. Add to that his complete lack of power and it's not like we have the next Chase Utley here. Still, Maysonet probably deserved more playing time than he got. He'd been known in the minors as a great defensive player and flashed good range in his time with the big league club. The only downside is his minor league track batting record was not very good. Maysonet had a decent season in 2008 at Corpus Christi, but was pretty terrible at Round Rock last season. That could be him reacting to shuttling back and forth from Triple-A to the majors. That could be because he's not ready to hit high-level pitching. Only time will tell.

Tommy Manzella, SS

2009 Season Stats: 5 PA, .200/.200/.200, 0 doubles, 0 triples, 0 HR, 0 runs, 0 RBIs, 0 for 0 stolen bases, 4 strikeouts, 7 OPS+

WAR: 0.0

UZR: -11.6

VORP: -0.5

Notes: The Great Shortstop Hope will be 27 next season and hasn't made a dent in the big leagues yet. There were a couple stories in September about how Manzella was learning from Tejada and soaking it all in, but he still needs to play. Manzella was a very consistent hitter for Round Rock in 2009, batting .289/.339/.417 in 133 games. The one good thing? Manzella is a horse, playing 521 games over the past five seasons in the minors. His defense is good, but it's hard to quantify how good it will be in the majors. In all likelihood, Manzella will be given every chance to be the everyday shortstop next season.

Chris Johnson, 3B

2009 Season Stats: 23 PA, .091/.130/.091, 0 doubles, 0 triples, 0 HR, 1 run, 1 RBI, 0 for 0 stolen bases, 6 strikeouts, -39 OPS+

WAR:-0.4

UZR: -34.9

VORP: -4.2

Notes: Johnson is one of the few Astros prospects I'm not that high on. He gets a lot of credit for being a power hitter, but only hit 13 home runs last season and averaged 10 homers per year in his minor league career. His defense at third is just passable, but probably could be as good as Blum, given time. The question is: is this Astros team ready to take a chance on a young player going through growing pains at the big league level? It's going to take an adjustment for Johnson to be a productive big league hitter, and I'm not sure the Astros can be patient enough for that to happen.

Chris Coste, Util

2009 Season Stats: 112 PA, .204/.259/.252, 5 doubles, 0 triples, 0 HR, 3 runs, 10 RBIs, 0 for 0 stolen bases, 28 strikeouts, 37 OPS+

WAR: -0.5

UZR: -10.9

VORP: -8.1

Notes: After being picked up off waivers on July 10, Coste started a bunch of games when Lance Berkman was injured and then Ivan Rodriguez was traded to the Rangers. The problem is Coste just wasn't that good, either offensively or defensively. Coste didn't hit for much power in his brief stint with the team, but did manage to strike out a ton. So he's got that going for him, which is nice. Seriously, though, by whichever metric you look at, Coste is the prototypical replacement-level player. He's only on the roster because there aren't better options. Hopefully that will change in the off-season.

Matt Kata, Util

2009 Season Stats: 52 PA, .200/.212/.220, 1 double, 0 triple, 0 HR, 2 runs, 5 RBIs, 0 for 0 stolen bases, 5 strikeouts, 16 OPS+

WAR: -0.1

UZR: 8.7

VORP: -4.8

Notes: Kata was more useful for his versatility off the bench than his play. As I mentioned at the top, I don't account much for UZR as the ONLY defensive metric to analyze things, especially when we have to extrapolate it out based on small sample sizes. Still, it appears Kata was at least a decent defensive asset on the bench this season. He's now a free agent.

Jason Smith, Util

2009 Season Stats: 27 PA, .000/.000/.000, 0 doubles, 0 triples, 0 HR, 1 run, 1 RBI, 0 for 0 stolen bases, 9 strikeouts, -100 OPS+

WAR: -0.6

UZR: 21.6

VORP: -7.4

Notes: Smith didn't get much of a chance to show anything at the big league level. What he did show wasn't good. Smith did better with Round Rock, but is probably best suited as a utility guy on the end of a bench. Smith is a free agent and probably won't be back with Round Rock.

Aaron Boone, 3B

2009 Season Stats: 14 PA, .000/.071/.000, 0 doubles, 0 triples, 0 HR, 0 runs, 0 RBIs, 0 for 0 stolen bases, 2 strikeouts, -79 OPS+

WAR: -0.3

UZR: 15.9

VORP: -3.4

Notes: Not much to say here, other than for a guy to go through what Boone did in spring training and still get 14 plate appearances in the same season...well, that's just impressive.

Houston Astros 2009 Payroll Breakdown and Value Over Contract - Graph of the Day

Justin Bopp — Wed, 16 Sep 2009 13:00:17 -0000

(click to enlarge)

Analytical and emotional breakdown after the jump.

From MLB.com article on Michael Bourn:

Where that turnaround is most evident is when there are runners in scoring position. Bourn is hitting .383 (36-for-94) with runners in scoring position, which places him second in the National League and fourth on the Astros' all-time chart, behind Jose Cruz (.389 in 1986), Craig Biggio (.388 in 2001) and Kevin Bass (.386 in 1994).

There comes a few times in the game of advanced (or even just garden variety reasonable) baseball analysis, when you sort of forget where the mindset of the average pundit is, and then you read this, and you remember: this is what you’re up against. An article praising (rightfully) Michael Bourn’s career growth in 2009 specifically mentions that the most evident gain is in batting average with runners in scoring position. For a leadoff hitter. In the National League.

If the thought process behind building the Houston Astros was in any way similar to this nugget, it’s pretty easy to understand why they’re a mess. The minor league system is barren, the talent is overpaid and old and I’m pretty sure even the ticket takers have a guaranteed contract with a no-trade clause. Just take a look at the Astros players playing with that benefit:

1B / OF Lance Berkman – 14.5 million per through 2010, full no trade clause, 2011 club option at 15 million
SP Roy Oswalt – Escalating salary (14 million in 2009) through 2011 (16 million), full no trade clause, 2012 club option at 16 million (2 million buyout)
LF Carlos Lee – 18.5 million annually through 2012, full no trade clause (expires after 2010)
2B Kaz Matsui – 5 million annually through 2010, limited no trade clause

The average age of these four players? 32.75. The total projected value of these 4 in 2009? 39.51 million dollars. Their salaries? 52 million. Only Matsui gets off the hook after next year, and he’s the littlest fish in this pond, investment-wise. Every single other one of these guys is going to hang around. Carlos Lee’s contract is probably unmovable now, and by the time 2010 ends, it almost certainly will be.

I don’t know how deep the Astros pockets can possibly be, but if they don’t want to double their payroll for 2010, they almost certainly can’t win An inflexible, aging payroll, no ability to sell for talent to rebuild, and no cheap in-house replacements is basically a perfect storm of poor roster building. There are pretty good indications from Houston that the fanbase and ownership understand this, and won’t hold Ed Wade responsible for this mess, but are they going to be patient enough for what is probably an 8 year rebuild? I hope hometown favorite (and likely rebound candidate) Lance Berkman is enough to keep them sated in the meantime.

Well, there is one possibility for easing the financial burden. Carlos Lee has a nominal weight clause in his contract. Perhaps the most prudent immediate use of funds by Mr. Wade would be to give his left fielder an unlimited line of credit at Luby’s.

Article, Walter Fulbright; Charts, Justin Bopp

Trade Deadline Deal: Who Wins In This Deal?

raygu — Mon, 10 Aug 2009 13:45:08 -0000

More photos » by Gus Ruelas - AP

4 months ago: Los Angeles Dodgers' Matt Kemp (27) receives congratulations from teammate Russell Martin (55) at home plate after his two-run home run during the eighth inning of a baseball game against the Milwaukee Brewers, Tuesday, Aug. 4, 2009, in Los Angeles. The Dodgers won 17-4. (AP Photo/Gus Ruelas)

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I am currently in 6th place in my "big" NL-only 5x5 league, and after recently just trading Josh Johnson for Brad Hawpe, I am looking for more offense. In addition to the Johnson deal, I just traded Joel Piniero for closer Rafael Soriano, as I am about 8 saves from 2nd palce in saves, which would mean 2 points in the standings.

My recent offer is to the first place team, who just recently lost starting pitcher Chad Gaudin to the Yankees, and has no reason to keep a power bat in his lineup as he is last in HRs and RBIs.

My offer is Ricky Nolasco, Everth Cabrera and Ryan Garko for Matt Kemp, David Eckstein and Chad Gaudin-I get a free roster move for Gaudin.

Who wins in this deal. I get the Kemp end of the deal. Should I move Nolasco, I may lose a point in wins and strikeouts, but with Hawpe, can gain a bunch in the power categories-HRs and RBI, as I already have Joey Votto, Geovany Soto, Rick Ankiel, Carlos Lee, Adam Dunn, Manny Ramirez and Jayson Werth.

Poll

Should I make the deal for Matt Kemp or am I giving up to much?

Make the deal-you have nothing to lose in the pitching categories.

38 votes

Keep Nolasco et al you fool, that is too much for Kemp and a bag of balls.

18 votes

56 votes | Poll has closed

The interesting one lives up to its billing: Cardinals 2 — Astros 3

DyingQuail — Tue, 21 Jul 2009 03:22:58 -0000

More photos » by David J. Phillip - AP

5 months ago: Houston Astros shortstop Miguel Tejada holds up the ball after leaping to catch a line drive hit by St. Louis Cardinals' Nick Stavinoha during the fifth inning of a baseball game Monday, July 20, 2009, in Houston. (AP Photo/David J. Phillip)

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Well, this was the match-up that I pegged to be interesting and it didn't disappoint. Breaking down the starting pitch match-up indicated that the deciding factor in the game was going to be the defense backing the pitchers, and the Astros did not disappoint.

Moehler, however, was as dominant as I have seen him. JD was thoroughly impressed with his effective mixing of pitches and it showed with the Cardinals hitters staying unbalance for Moehler's 6.1 IP.

So onto the positives:

Brian Moehler's line: 6.1IP, 6H, 2R, 2ER, 5K, 2BB, 10GB, and 7FB on 100 pitches (64 strikes). His 7.11 K/9 and lopsided GB/FB ratio pretty much tell the story of Moehler's stellar outing, for himself.
Carlos Lee saved Lance Berkman's strained calf by allow Lance to trot home on his fourth inning three run blast (seeing how tender Berkman was all night has me concerned, though).
Michael Bourn's catch on Tal's Hill in the bottom of the first. It won't make any highlight reels, but watch that ball blast off Albert Pujols' bat...just the sheer relief of watching Bourn field it makes it an amazing grab.
(see photo above)
Wesley Wright's 3-1 on what should have been a 3 unassisted.
Ivan Rodriguez gunning down Pujols in the bottom of the 8th.
Kazuo Matsui, Miguel Tejada, and Lance Berkman's 4-6-3 to bail out Jose Valverde in the bottom of the ninth.
The Cubs losing 10-1 in Philly and the fact that the Brewers are currently losing 7-2 at the time of me typing in the bottom of sixth at Pittsburgh.
The fact that we're a winning baseball team again and the Chris Carpenter vs. Roy Oswalt match-up is now guaranteed to have something riding on it.

via www.fangraphs.com

Cardinals vs Astros boxscore ; Cardinals vs Astros coverage ; Viva El Birdos

Felipe Paulino dominates (and so do the Astros bats)

DyingQuail — Sun, 28 Jun 2009 01:29:32 -0000

More photos » by David J. Phillip - AP

Tonight we spell domination P-A-U-L-I-N-O

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This game featured everything, and by everything I mean everything you want to see in an Astros game. Let me count the ways:

Felipe Paulino produced an amazing line of: 7IP with 9K, 0BB, 3H (1 HR) using 96 pitches. That is a phenomenal line: 11.57 K/9, an infinite K:BB, 9.37 K/100 (strike outs per 100 pitches). We literally could not have asked for more from Paulino who probably just had his national coming out game (tune into the talking heads on the networks to see if that holds true).
Every Astros starter, except Paulino, reached base.
Every Astros starter, except for Paulino and Keppinger), had a hit.
Every Astros starter, except for Paulino, had a run or an RBI.
Kaz Matsui had a HR. I repeat, Kaz Matsui hit a HR.
Michael Bourn was in 30 second run down that he almost wiggled out of it.
Lance Berkman had a multi-hit game (one of which was a 400ft. LD to Tal's Hill).
Carlos Lee had a multi-hit game.
Michael Bourn had a multi-hit game.
Lance Berkman stole 3rd.
Darin Erstad crushed a pinch hit double. Inconsequential, but still nice to see.
Paulino, Jeff Fulchino, and Welsey Wright combined to retire the final 17 Tiger's batters.
The Astros secured a series victory and have a possible sweep to go for tomorrow.
The Astros are two games below five hundred now and a scant half game behind the Chicago Cubs.

Nothing went wrong for us it seemed and more importantly it was a tidy two hour and seventeen minute ball game—enjoy your newly freed up Saturday night...I know I will.

via www.fangraphs.com

Tigers vs Astros coverage ; Tigers vs Astros boxscore ; Tigers vs Astros boxscore

Wednesday Morning Astros, etc. Round Up

HighLeveragePerformer — Wed, 24 Jun 2009 11:00:18 -0000

More photos » by Tony Gutierrez - AP

Richard Justice makes a steroid related jab at Pudge.

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Which kind of team would you rather root for? A consistent regular season winner, who consistently makes the playoffs but never wins the big one? Or a Florida Marlins esque organization that packs multiple championships close together but is downright terrible in other seasons?

I would much rather be a fan of a team that wins a lot during the regular season, year after year, and at least gives themselves a chance to win in the playoffs. Knowing what I know, that the playoffs is largely a crap shoot a lot of the time, makes this a little easier decision. Certainly, winning the championship is any team's goal, but is it always the fan's goal? If most fans are being realistic, they should know whether or not their club has a legitimate chance to win the big one. It is almost more rewarding to have your team come out of nowhere to win; to defy expectations. I always get more nervous when the pre season prognosticators have the Astros/Rockets/Packers as being championship contenders. If they do make a deep playoff run, it feels like this was just what they were expected to do. If they fall flat on their faces, they underachieved, a distinction no team wants to deal with.

To the links (cross over contributions from DQ and HLP):

Richard Justice takes laments the fact, among other lamentations, that we didn't hear more about Ivan Rodriguez and steroids linked together when he broke his record. My question is: if Justice wanted to hear it? Why didn't he just say it at the time?
There's so much in this link for the Unofficial Scorer that there will be a few quotes:

Felipe Paulino threw a simulated game Tuesday at Minute Maid Park and is still a candidate to start in the next opening in the rotation Saturday....

Geoff Blum will likely go on a rehab assignment late this week and hopes to be ready for the finale of the homestand this weekend...

Abigail Primm Berkman, the couple’s fourth child — all girls — weighed 7 pounds and 9 ounces...

Miguel Tejada makes an astute suggestion about the Astros tactics against Zack Greinke last night:

"I think what we’ve got to do is start playing small ball," said Tejada, who went 3-for-4 with three singles. "Today is a pitching day. You see how Greinke pitched, you see how (Russ) Ortiz pitched, and today is a day that we’ve got to play small ball because today is a day that we’re not going to hit the way we’re supposed to be. If we do that, I think we’re going to be a better team."

The Unoffical Scorer also notes this dubious honor for the Astros.
According to the poor man at BtB, the Astros are likely to finish 73-89.
Driveline Mechanics urges us to celebrate the accomplishment of being perfectly average. Sadly, Carlos Lee makes the list.
Does streakiness depend on the temperature?
Let's try to make this strech of bad ball worse for the KC Royals..
Joey Votto opens up about being MIA recently. Best wishes to Joey and his family.
Appropriate breakfast recipe right here.
Former #1 pick by the Rays, and Rice Owl Wade Townsend has announced his retirement.
I don't know what a lot of y'alls senses of humor are like, but this blog had me absolutely rolling.