SB Nation - John Shelby

Chicago WhiteSox Top 20 Prospects for 2010

John Sickels — Thu, 10 Dec 2009 04:15:07 -0000

More photos » by Charles Krupa - AP

3 months ago: Chicago White Sox' Gordon Beckham dashes down the first base line on his two run home run in the third inning against the Boston Red Sox during their baseball game at Fenway Park in Boston, Monday Aug. 24, 2009. (AP Photo/Charles Krupa)

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Chicago White Sox Top 20 Prospects for 2010.

All grades are EXTREMELY PRELIMINARY and subject to change. Don't get too worried about exact rankings at this point, especially once you get beyond the Top 10. Grade C+/C guys are pretty interchangeable depending on what you want to emphasize. Complete reports on these and over 1,000 other players will be in the2010 Baseball Prospect Book, now available for pre-order, shipping on February 2^nd!

1) Dan Hudson, RHP, Grade B+: A personal favorite, since I rated him as a big sleeper pre-season and he really broke through.

2) Jared Mitchell, OF, Grade B: Grade A tools, refinement is a Grade C/C+ right now.

3) Tyler Flowers, C, Grade B: Power and patience are plusses, defense has improved a great deal according to all reports.

4) Brent Morel, 3B, Grade B-: I think he's underrated. Only questions about power at higher levels keep him from a Grade B. Now blocked behind Mark Teahen, a long-term signing I don't understand.

5) Jordan Danks, OF, Grade C+: Borderline Grade B-, as I like the tools and think the bat may still come around.

6) Dayan Viciedo, 3B, Grade C+: Cutting him some slack since he was young for Double-A and was pushed fast, but this is a good example of why we need performance data rather than just hype and team propaganda/scouting reports when evaluating players.

7) David Holmberg, LHP, Grade C+: Will the fastball get faster? If it does his stock could go up quickly.

8) C.J. Retherford, 2B, Grade C+: He can hit despite unimpressive tools. Not sure how he fits into long-term plans.

9) Christian Marrero, 1B-OF, Grade C+: Looks underrated to me. Could be a good platoon player.

10) Santos Rodriguez, LHP, Grade C+: Gotta love the strikeouts, but a long way from being ready to help. High ceiling though.

11) Miguel Gonzalez, C, Grade C+: Interesting catcher with good hitting in the Appy League and good glove rep, could rise quickly up the list in '10.

12) Jhonny Nunez, RHP, Grade C+: Power relief arm could help sometime soon.

13) Josh Phegley, C, Grade C+: Borderline Grade C; defensive questions still present and he had trouble transitioning from metal to wood, but can't ignore Indiana numbers completely yet.

14) John Ely, RHP, Grade C: I know scouts hate him but he just keeps getting people out. Passed Double-A Finesse Pitcher Test with flying colors.

15) John Shelby, OF, Grade C: Good speed, good glove, some power, on-base skills still sketchy despite increase in walk rate.

16) Tracye Thompson, OF, Grade C: Great tools, horrible hitting skills at this point. High risk of bust, but physical potential is impressive.

17) Clevelan Santeliz, RHP, Grade C: I know he throws hard and has the pretty ERA in Double-A, but his walk rate remains too high for me to trust him at this point.

18) Lucas Harrell, RHP, Grade C: Another guy with a decent arm but unattractive component ratios.

19) Brandon Hynick, RHP, Grade C: Nice pickup from the Rockies, possible inning-eater type though stuff is marginal.

20) Carlos Torres, RHP, Grade C: Old for a prospect at 27, but pitched well in Triple-A and could be a useful staff asset.

Others of Note (all grade C): Kyle Bellamy, RHP; Ryan Buch, RHP; Nick Ciolli, OF; Justin Collop, RHP; Tyson Corley, RHP; Eduardo Escobar, SS; Stefan Gartrell, OF; Jon Gilmore, 3B; Nevin Griffith, RHP; Gregory Infante, RHP; Nathan Jones, RHP; Jon Link, RHP; Charlie Leesman, LHP; Dan Remenowsky, RHP; Sergio Santos, RHP; Joe Serafin, LHP; Brady Shoemaker, OF; Taylor Thompson, RHP.

This is a very thin farm system, thanks in part to frequent trades and major league graduations like Gordon Beckham. I like the four guys at the top: Hudson and Mitchell are both personal favorites, though both still have enough questions to keep them from getting B+ ratings. Flowers seems to have come around defensively and has a good bat. Morel is another guy I like quite a bit and he has breakout potential in '10.

After that things thin out fast. Danks, Viciedo, and Holmberg all have good potential but even bigger questionmarks than the top guys. Marrero strikes me as an underrated player. Rodriguez and Gonzalez are intriguing but we need to see them at higher levels. After that we have a bunch of potential role players, possible bullpen arms, or guys with big ceilings but gigantic holes in their game (Trayce Thompson).

If Mitchell begins to fulfill his potential he'll be the clear number one next year.

This Month in White Sox Minor League Baseball

larry — Sat, 21 Nov 2009 22:34:57 -0000

You won't be seeing Sergio Santos use this anymore.

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Today was the Arizona Fall League Championship game between the Phoenix Desert Dogs and Peoria Javelinas, for whom White Sox prospects play. The Javelinas won 5-4. AFL batting champion Brent Morel had a good game, going 2-4. Jordan Danks continued his struggles with pitches inside, grounding out to the right side on such pitches three times. He did draw a walk, finishing 0-4. But C.J. "Stumpy" Retherford was the hero. He drove in Morel on a fielder's choice for the first Javelinas run and then hit an absolute bomb to left field in the 8th to give them a lead they wouldn't relinquish.

RHP Sergio Santos, the recently converted SS, made an appearance. As expected, the control was spotty - one of his strikeouts also hit the batter - and the results were rather typical (1 IP, 2 H, 1 R, 0 BB, 2 K) but he flashed a very nice slider and the fastball velocity looked very good.

In other news:

Video from the AFL, including Retherford, Morel and Danks.
The White Sox added five to the 40 man roster, thus protecting these players from next month's Rule 5 Draft. Phil Rogers' favorite OF Stefan Gartrell was added; with the outfield situation uncertain at this point, he was a reasonable use of space, though he strikes me as an AAAA player at best. RHP Brandon Hynick, who came over in the Contreras trade, was also protected. Of all the adds, he was the likeliest to actually be picked considering he is the closest to major league ready. Raw RHP Sergio Santos is another reasonable addition. His potential is tremendous and, as he's new to pitching, you don't know when things may click. RHP Santo Luis will be 26 next season and it will be his first time above A ball. I suppose he does have a nice strikeout rate. SouthSideSox had been hearing that RHP Brian Omogrosso tore his labrum so, if that's the case, I'm not sure why he was protected since another team couldn't stash him on the DL all year. Perhaps he's healthier than that or perhaps the White Sox see this as an irrelevant move since they have plenty of roster room and they can put him on the DL all year and, if so, would be able to get another option year.
Potentially notable non-additions are 2006 waste of a first round pick Kyle McCulloch and John Shelby. But I wouldn't be too concerned.
Minor league free agency began. Notable filings: Ehren Wassermann, David Cook and Fernando Hernandez. But I wouldn't be too concerned.
Lists season is in full swing. BP's Kevin Goldstein published his. No real surprises on it, as one could expect an analyst who favors tools to rank Jared Mitchell and Trayce Thompson higher than most.
You can keep track of all the White Sox players in winter ball here. Not much has changed since last post: Jon Link still walking too many and Clevelan Santeliz is still striking out many. Jhonny Nunez has begun playing for Licey in the Dominican Winter League so he's another to watch.

This will probably be the last front page update post until March. Check out the right sidebar for the Minor League Update fanpost, which will probably be around in one form or another for most/all of the offseason. And you can follow me on Twitter @SouthSidelarry.

Disappointing White Sox Prospects of 2009

larry — Mon, 14 Sep 2009 10:00:30 -0000

John Shelby: unlucky or bad?

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The progression of a minor league player is rarely an uninterrupted straight line to the majors. Instead, players plateau at some level along the way. Even those few who make the majors usually experience a plateau or even a regression along their way. This week, I'm looking at some players who were either on some top ten lists prior to this season or hyped as possible risers but, instead, had seasons in which they plateaued or regressed. Note that while some of these guys probably have maxed out their talent, it's likely that at least one of those mentioned will recover in 2010 and continue onwards and upwards.

John Shelby: Treybone made just about all the top ten lists before this season. A usual criticism was that he needed to develop more patience. He did that, bringing his BB rate up to 10.3% while also cutting the strikeouts a bit. However, he stopped getting hits and saw his power drop. It's possible that this was simply a matter of bad luck - his BABIP was .276, well below his career average (and league average). Of course, it may also be that AA pitching is too much for him. The speed is still impressive (30 for 39 in SBs) and the potential positional versatility is a plus - however, you have to hit some to make the majors. And more flyballs in Birmingham is not the way to do it.

Jon Link: The lack of a September call-up for this member of the 40-man roster is telling. I previewed Link before the season and pointed out that while he strikes out a good amount, he also walks a good amount. Literally, nothing changed this season at Charlotte from last season at Birmingham as he had identical 2.44 K/BB ratios. While the 10.5 K/9 is sexy, you just can't walk that many guys and expect to be successful in the majors. The scouting reports remain encouraging but, at some point, you have to match with performance.

Jon Gilmore: This Jon has been a whole lot of projection without a whole lot of substance. A piece in the Vazquez trade, scouts gush about his athleticism. The evolution to a baseball player, however, hasn't happened. He did have a very encouraging finish to the season in August and September and a recent scouting report still raves about the potential. But .274/.322/.361 overall in Kannapolis isn't much about which to write home. At 21 - and probably returning to low A for part of a third season - he'll need to produce next season to avoid the bust label.

Steven Upchurch: An overslot signing out of the 12th round in 2008, Upchurch had a solid pro debut at Bristol last season: 30.1 IP, 23 H, 10 BB, 28 K. After being assigned a return engagement there, he seemed to expect a promotion to Kannapolis in short order. That never came because the 19 year old had a terrible season: 66 IP, 94 H, 17 BB, 42 K. There's nothing to suggest injury but he certainly became very hittable. As he turns 20 today, he's got plenty of time to correct whatever the problems may be.

Brian Omogrosso: He had the talent, he could just never stay healthy. He put together a pretty good season for Birmingham and earned a promotion to Charlotte. After four ineffective relief outings, he hit the disabled list and we later learned he had a torn labrum. It's probably a career-ender, especially considering his injury history and age.

Gregory Infante: This is for you, rdf8585, who chided me in my season preview for not including Infante. He started well enough for Kannapolis. However, after a midseason promotion to the Dash, he started walking people and stopped striking them out. Then he hit the DL twice, reportedly with some blister issues - though one suspects there may be something else going on. He'll be 23 next season so I guess I can consider him for my 2010 preview.

This Week in White Sox Minor League Baseball

larry — Sat, 05 Sep 2009 16:48:00 -0000

Jared Mitchell (via Sox Machine)

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This week:

The material for TWIWSMiLB is becoming more threadbare. September call-ups have taken the likes of Daniel Hudson, Tyler Flowers and Carlos Torres. Minor league rehab assignments appear to be over for the season. And, just to further deplete things, Jared Mitchell and Christian Marrero hit the DL.
The minor league playoffs begin next week. Great Falls begin on the 12th against a TBD opponent. Kannapolis start against Lakewood on the 9th. Winston-Salem also go on the 9th against a TBD opponent. Birmingham open on the 10th against Jacksonville.
Bristol completed their season and sent a good bit of their roster to Charlotte to replace call-ups and players competing in the World Cup. The results for most of these Rookie-leaguers has been predictable, including permitting Rays' top prospect Desmond Jennings to go 7-7. It does, however, provide a few more games for these guys so that's helpful. Two notables are Brady Shoemaker and Miguel Gonzalez. Shoemaker was named an Appalachian League surprise by Baseball America. As noted, this list is for guys who are old for the league but, nevertheless, deserve attention for putting up excellent numbers. The right-handed outfielder had a .351/.426/.585 line and hit a home run for Charlotte last night. Gonzalez, on the other hand, is a legitimate prospect. The catcher has been a favorite of mine since he put up good numbers in the Dominican Summer League last year and, at 18 years old, is very age approporiate for the Appy League. The Venezuelan hit .311/.385/.503 this season and, while he's described as having "a bit of a thick body", he's definitely one to watch. Expect to see him continue his season in the Venezuelan Winter League (VWL).
One Bristol player who didn't make the jump to AAA is 2009 second round pick Trayce Thompson who, instead, is getting a preview of his likely destination next season, Great Falls. His adjustment to pro ball has been difficult but, as a very raw high schooler, that isn't unexpected.
Brent Morel: .278/.333/.445.
When Clevelan Santeliz was added to the 40-man roster last year in order to protect him from the Rule 5 Draft, I scratched my head. While he had good stuff, he had little control and his stint in the VWL hadn't been impressive, either. However, Santeliz has made good on the White Sox' confidence by improving his control markedly as this season wore on. In the first half, he walked 27 in 35 innings. So far in the second half, he's walked 8 in 20 innings while also improving his K rate. Assuming this isn't just a small sample size aberration, he's certainly put himself into the mix for a bullpen role for sometime next season.
Birmingham Roundup: Jordan Danks: .250/.344/.366; Dayan Viciedo: .280/.318/.393; C.J. Retherford: .302/.345/.476; Christian Marrero: .301/.340/.520; John Shelby: .243/.320/.395; John Ely: 150.1 IP, 137 H, 48 BB, 118 K, 1.44 GO/AO; Charlie Shirek: 90.1 IP, 97 H, 17 BB, 32 K, 1.43 GO/AO; Henry Mabee: 28.2 IP, 20 H, 10 BB, 21 K, 1.65 GO/AO.
Josh Phegley: .233/.288/.423.

As always, the Minor League Update fanpost on the right rail provides a place for daily updates and commentary and the opportunity to vote in the weekly poll.

This Week in White Sox Minor League Baseball

larry — Sat, 06 Jun 2009 03:53:49 -0000

You are what you wear? So the White Sox hope.

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This week, I'm truncating the news and publishing larry's Official SSS Top Ten White Sox Prospects List after the jump:

The Dominican Summer League opened play and the White Sox have the aptly named DSL White Sox participating. While it is inherently difficult to get solid information regarding the players in this league, the famous/infamous 18/35 year old Juan Silverio is playing and off to a hot start. I'll let others wax on about the rumors surrounding his $600,000 signing. I will, however, be watching him and a few other players, such as 2B Daurys Mercedes and C Jamie Del Valle. All of the players in the league are years away from ever even sniffing the majors but are worth some attention.
Jose Contreras made one final start at Charlotte before his call-up for Monday's game: 6.2 IP, 3 hits, 4 BB, 3 K.
Sox Machine recapped the month of May for Charlotte and Birmingham and Winston-Salem and Kannapolis.
Finally, there were a couple odd stories this week from the low minors. First, Sergio Santos, who some may rememeber was a non-roster invitee this spring training and played third base, has re-surfaced in Kannapolis as a pitcher. Next, after an injury to one of the two umpires, Winston-Salem's Christian Marrero had his offday cut short when he was pressed into service as a replacement umpire.

First, a brief discussion of methodology. It's an alchemy. I think about tools, current skills, makeup, ceiling and likelihood of reaching that ceiling. And then I mash it together. One could probably say that pitchers are at a disadvantage in this because of their increased likelihood of injury. I also am not a fan of numerical listings. What does it mean to be #2 if the gaps to #1 and #3, respectively, are of markedly different sizes? That's why I prefer groupings. Here, I would probably put Beckham by himself, #2-3 together, #4-5 together, #6 all alone, and then #7-10 together (and, no, there was no one left off who would make the last group).

1. Gordon Beckham, 3B: The organization’s clear top prospect received the call-up he deserved this week so he won’t be eligible for this list much longer. At every level – Class A, Arizona Fall League, AA, AAA – Beckham was superlative. While the shift to third base will raise additional and different questions about his glove than there were about it at shortstop, the bat will make up for it. His line drive swing should result in lots of doubles and the Cell will carry a lot of his hits out, as well. Path to the majors: Arrived.

2. Tyler Flowers, C: The heir apparent to the top spot has improved his standing this season with some superb hitting for the Barons. Many observers – including this one – would be able to make a pretty good argument that his bat is ready for the majors right now. Behind the plate, however, he requires a good deal more seasoning but the White Sox are adamant that he will be a major league catcher. Path to the majors: Flowers has a clear, though measured, path – he is the organization’s only prospect of any note at the position and A.J.Pierzynski, whose contract is up after next season, should play well enough to squelch any calls to prematurely promote him. Expect a call-up to Charlotte sometime in the second half with a late 2010 arrival.

3. Aaron Poreda, SP: The organization’s top pitching prospect returned to AA this season to continue working with J.R. Perdew. While his fastball has never been questioned, his secondary offerings always have. In the past, scouts have overwhelmingly predicted a future in the bullpen; recently, however, his slider and changeup have become more consistent – though still need work – and opinion has shifted to a more even divide between rotation and relief. The White Sox have been patient with Poreda, consistently resisting calls to bring him up, and their patience may be rewarded. Path to the majors: He’s ready now for the bullpen (and has been for awhile) but needs the rest of the year in the minors to develop as a starter. Expect a September call-up and a spot in next season’s Opening Day rotation.

4. Brandon Allen, 1B: Once described by a member of the front office as the organization’s "sleeping giant," Allen awoke in a big way last season and has continued to produce this season. While he’s a big man at 6'2'' and 230+, he’s very athletic with surprising speed on the basepaths and plays solid defense at first. Path to the majors: With Thome’s contract up and Konerko getting to the age where he’d benefit from more days off from the field, the left-handed hitting Allen should slot right in. Expect a June promotion to Charlotte and a mid 2010 arrival.

5. Jordan Danks, CF: You can bet that, once Beckhamania dies down, the next savior for whom fans will be clamoring is Danks. Always a toolsy player, at Texas Danks never fulfilled the promise with production. Because of this and a perception that he would finish his college eligibility, he dropped to the White Sox in the seventh round where they scooped him up for a well over-slot bonus. Such "scouting," as Hawk and Stone describe it, has paid handsome dividends so far: his numbers after promotion to Birmingham (.348/.419/.489) have been nearly idential to those at Winston-Salem. The K rate remains worrisome but his production – not to mention his above-average defense – is hard to ignore. Another positive is that, consistent with his collegiate history, the left-handed hitting Danks has an acceptable platoon split. Path to the majors: Another guy with a clear path, expect a second-half promotion to Charlotte and a mid-2010 arrival.

6. Dayan Viciedo, 3B: The hype machine has moved on from Viciedo after a piss-poor start to his minor league career. At the time, I cautioned patience because of his extreme youth compared to most of his peers. Soon after, he began to hit for a higher average – he’s now up to .286. The next step will be to add the power expected from a man with his attributes. After that, it would be hoped that some measure of plate discipline could be attained. His defense at third is butcherific so a position change is likely in order. Path to the majors: Slow and steady. He’s going to need a full year at Birmingham. Assuming he adds the power in the second half, he may start 2010 in AAA. But, at 20 and without a clear defensive position, the White Sox can afford to be restrained with their pricey investment. Mid-2011 arrival.

7. Dexter Carter, SP: His classic fastball-curve combo has befuddled Class A hitters so far this season. His K/9 is 11.88, though his dominance shouldn’t be surprising considering his advanced collegiate background. One issue for Carter is the necessity to develop his changeup into a legitimate pitch; otherwise, his future is in relief. Another concern, especially in this organization, is his fly-ball tendencies. Nevertheless, his raw ability is tantalizing. Path to the majors: A promotion to Winston-Salem is in the cards for June. After that, hope for a steady climb up the ladder. 2012 arrival.

8. Jon Link, RP: With a fastball and slider that can be vicious to opposing hitters, Link has the makeup of an aggressive closer. While his walk rate still is a concern of mine, his strikeout rate has remained high. Consistent with organizational philosophy, Link, though a closer, has experience pitching more than an inning in relief. Path to the majors: In other years, we probably would have already seen Link. Thus far, the bullpen has been strong; however, with each of Dotel, Jenks, and Linebrink showing some fragility in the recent past, a hard-throwing righty may be needed later on in the year and that’s when Link will arrive.

9. John Shelby, UTIL: Often lost in the background of the top prospects, Shelby quietly continues to improve. While his numbers this season are a bit non-descript, some of that can be attributed to a low BABIP. He also has cut his strikeout rate while increasing his walk rate. The arrival of Danks has short-circuited the CF experiment but Shelby continues to project as a solid utility player, with a Willie Harris-esque ability to play all outfield positions and second base. Path to the majors: Since he does nothing spectacular and no longer has the CF track to himself, his path is less clear. Likely will spend the rest of the season in AA and start the next in AAA. Mid-2011 arrival.

10. Daniel Hudson, SP: This righty tore through the SAL but has found Advanced A ball a bit more challenging. He’s kept the K rate high but more polished hitters are walking more against him. He has a 91-93 MPH fastball with good movement but often relies on a slider to get strikeouts and hitters are beginning to lay off. Hudson will need to adjust and how he adjusts will dictate his future - tonight's outing was a nice start. Path to the majors: Like Carter, hope for a slow and steady climb up the ladder. 2012 arrival.

This Week in White Sox Minor League Baseball

larry — Sat, 23 May 2009 16:10:16 -0000

Gordon Beckham: Coming soon to a Major League Club near you.

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This week:

Gordon Beckham returned to game action after his brief stint on the DL for an abdominal injury. After a slow start, he returned to savior form. Season line: .299/.366/.488.
Carlos Torres continues to plug away in his effort to be the standby sixth starter. Season line now 46 IP, 32 hits, 16 BB, and a very nice 49 K.
Of course, there's another fellow in Charlotte who wants to be next in line and he has a bit more pedigree and a lot bigger contract. Jose Contreras threw a complete game one-hitter against Toledo, the Tigers' AAA affiliate. One should keep in mind that, if there are any AAA teams worse than the Knights, the Mud Hens would be in the discussion. Nevertheless, Jose was in the strike zone more than in his previous start and, while he isn't striking guys out at a high rate, the contact they are making hasn't been hard and is generally on the ground.
Tyler Flowers: .261/.439/.452.
Last Tuesday, we had a chance to speak to White Sox Assistant GM Rick Hahn. Here are my notes from the conversation. Topics included which players are the near untouchables, likely ETA for Flowers and Brandon Allen, a Steven Upchurch update, and Aaron Poreda.
Jon Gilmore, the 20 year old 3B who came over in the Vazquez trade, had a horrible start to the season in Kannapolis, in which he batted well under .200. The last week, however, he's been on fire, going 15-26. The key difference has been cutting the strikeouts and putting the ball in play.
SSS poster beutox put up some video of the Barons from their series against West Tenn. Gartrell, Danks, Shelby, Beckham, Viciedo, and Allen all included.
Dan Remenowsky continues to strike out A ball hitters at an eye-popping rate of 2 per IP. As I've previously discussed, this undrafted righty doesn't have overpowering stuff; but what he does have is pinpoint command which is helping him miss a ton of bats. A source says: "He locates better than anyone else I have seen in the league." Expect a promotion to Winston-Salem soon.
Dexter Carter is also a K machine. 44.1 IP and 61 K. What hurts him is a low groundball rate that translates into home runs.
Brandon Allen: .294/.363/.497.
Dayan Viciedo is continuing to adjust to AA. The last couple weeks he has cut the strikeouts and gotten more hits. The power still isn't there and the walks aren't either but making more frequent contact is a start.

As always, check the Minor League Update Fanpost on the right sidebar for daily updates and commentary. Additionally, I twitter White Sox minor league news so, if you're interested in that or my other random baseball thoughts, follow me: http://twitter.com/SouthSidelarry.

This Week in White Sox Minor League Baseball

larry — Sat, 16 May 2009 16:32:21 -0000

Brandon Allen

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Truncated edition due to travel.

This week:

Jordan Danks was promoted to Birmingham. He continues to leadoff with the Barons and displaced John Shelby from centerfield. Danks had no trouble with the initial adjustment to AA pitching, putting up a line of .412/.444./.529 in four games.
As covered last week, Gordon Beckham suffered an abdominal injury. He was placed on the 7-day DL and thus missed all of this week. He's expected to return to game action this weekend.
Charlie Leesman had a perfect game bid broken up on Friday night. The Kannapolis hurler, who was drafted in the 11th round last year, took the perfect game into the 7th before it was broken up with two outs. The lefty finished with 7.2 IP, 1 hit, 0 BB, and 9 K. He has good velocity on his fastball for a lefty.
Brandon Allen: .290/.356/.481
C.J. Retherford garnered Southern League Player of the Week honors and continues to make the strange bedfellows of larry and Hawk Harrelson look good with their White Sox minor league sleeper pick. .333/.362/.606(!).
Daniel Hudson made his (complete) High A debut, after last week's rain-shortened affair. He went five innings, giving up two hits and three walks while striking out six.
Jose Contreras made his first start after his demotion to Charlotte. His control was still lacking - only 57 of his 108 pitches were for strikes. Six innings, three hits, five walks, one HBP, and five strikeouts.
Carlos Torres rebounded from a poor outing in rough conditions last Saturday (coverage of game and Torres from Sox Machine) to get back on track Friday night with a gem: 6 IP, 2 hits, 2 BB, 10 K.

Profiling the Prospects

The Cheat — Tue, 14 Oct 2008 04:57:01 -0000

It's easy for Sox fans to point to the Lance Broadway pick and mark the '05 draft as a failure, but a closer inspection reveals a number of players who could be classified as Top Prospects despite their lower-profile draft position. Unfortunately for the Sox, the '05 draft's Top Prospects now reside in other farm systems; Daniel Cortes (7th round) is the Royals top pitching prospect, with Chris Carter (15th) and Aaron Cunningham (6th) give the A's a couple extra Top 50 prospects via Arizona. But even with Broadway tucked away in the Suspects section of our classification system, we've still got a few names you'll recognize from the '05 draft here among the Plain Ol' Prospects.

Continue our look at the Sox prospects after the jump.

Plain Ol' Prospects

Clayton Richard -- Richard was an 8th round pick from the University of Michigan out of that '05 draft. He was a prized football recruit as a quarterback coming out of HS in Indiana, and spent more time at Michigan on the football sidelines holding a clipboard than he did on the mound striking out batters. For that reason, and an arm that supposedly reached up to 92-93 MPH in high school, I picked Richard as one of my breakout candidates prior to the '06 season. I was a little early.

Richard didn't give us much reason to think that he'd turn into a viable back of the rotation candidate during his first two seasons. His peripherals were unspectacular, striking out a little over 5 batters per 9 innings pitched. But this year, out of nowhere, Richard started pounding the strike zone and getting hitters to pound the ball into the ground. He walked only 20 batters in 130 minor league innings, and compiled a WHIP under 1 across two levels. But he still didn't miss enough bats to make the jump to a Top Prospect status.

Richard has a unique delivery and a big tail on his fastball, which he adds and subtracts off of for effect. His changeup is a also plus pitch, but he struggled to throw in in the bottom half of the zone at times at the big league level. His third pitch, a slider, will be a key to his long-term effectiveness at the big league level. I'd say that he could benefit from some more time in AAA (he only got 7 starts there before his call-up), but I don't know if he has anything more that he can learn down there. He may have to learn how to survive on the fly at the big league level. For his part, it seemed like he was doing just that down the stretch, as 3 of the 5 starts he received after he was recalled were considered Quality Starts, including a tremendous losing effort in Yankee Stadium, and two stellar relief outings in the post-season.

Richard will definitely be in the Sox plans next year, but he'll need to add in his secondary pitches to better neutralize right-handed hitters and keep hitters off balance the second and third time through the order. Working on the throw to first base would help too.

Brandon Allen -- If not for Clayton Richard's rise from borderline suspect to possible 5th starter, Allen's strong season would have been the most surprising in the Sox system. Allen has always had the tools to be a big time prospect, but he never demonstrated even the slightest bit of control over the strike zone above rookie ball. That all changed this year as Allen doubled his walk rate, the second straight season he accomplished that feat, and turned some of his '07 doubles (39) into home runs (29).

Many scouts still aren't sold on Allen, and truth be told, neither am I. They note his poor pitch recognition (though obviously it's improving) and defense as reasons to drag him down prospect lists such as this. He's more athletic than most guys his size, as evidenced by his double-digit stolen bases this season, but his fielding can be described as erratic. He still has work to do at the plate, and might be best served with a return trip to Birmingham out of spring. I'd like to have another half-season of data from him before I really speak passionately in one way or another about his prospect status.

Jordan Danks -- It's a little bit hard to believe at this point, but three years ago scouts had Danks ranked similarly, and often times more positively, than Jay Bruce. Danks was viewed as a true 5-tool player who projected big power. But Bruce and Danks took separate paths; Danks to the University of Texas, where he never really showed the forecasted power even though he had the benefit of metal bats, and Bruce to the minor leagues, where he rose to become the #1 position prospect in all of baseball before making his major league debut before the mid-way point of the '08 season.

While most will point to Danks' lack of power, which, by the way, is completely overstated (36 of his 75 NCAA hits and 7 of his 13 pro hits in '08 went for extra bases), as the area that is holding him back from becoming a Top Prospect, I'd argue that it's his strikeout rate that most bears watching next year and in the future. Danks struck out 122 times in 588 collegiate at-bats. To put that in perspective, Josh Fields, who played in the same conference, albeit a few years earlier, struck out 113 times in 579 collegiate at-bats. That wouldn't be too troubling on it's own, because unlike Fields, Danks has always demonstrated a strong walk-rate. But Danks didn't improve his K or BB rates in any significant way in college, and 14 strike outs against 4 walks in 45 trips to the plate as a pro isn't a way to quiet those concerns.

Now that I've spent two paragraphs talking about what's holding Danks back, how about a little positivity. Well, Danks is still a legit 4-tool player, and could yet develop into a 5-tool player. (As I suggested above, those doubles and triples seem to indicate that the lack of power may have more to do with impatient scouts than anything else.) He's a tall, lanky, left-handed hitting speedster with a good batting eye, who plays a fine CF and has a plus arm. In short, Danks has upside above anyone else in the Sox system not named Beckham or Poreda.

John Shelby -- Shelby was my favorite pick from an '06 draft that makes '05 appear brilliant by comparison. The son of former major leaguer by the same name, Shelby was the lone prospect with any upside taken in the '06 draft. But critics noted his Swing At Everything style in college and questioned how that would translate in the minors. The answer, at least in the lower levels, is good enough.

Shelby has posted slugging percentages over .500 in each of the last two seasons, and demonstrated a combination of speed and power not seen in the White Sox organization since the departure of Chris Young. But all is not rosy for Shelby, starting at the All-Star break last season he all but stopped taking a walk. That might not be a big problem if he had outstanding contact skills, but he doesn't. He struck out nearly 5 times as often as he walked in '08, and his K-rate went up while his BB-rate went down compared to '07. So while it's nice that Shelby has posted consecutive seasons batting around .300 with good power, his peripherals suggest a swift decline at the higher levels.

Defensively, Shelby has been a vagabond. He started at second in college, and began his minor league career there, but has since moved to the outfield. I believe the Sox see him as a center fielder in the future, but injuries and questionable instincts limited his time there this year.

Chris Getz -- Chris Getz will hit. Maybe not for power, and maybe not right away; but eventually, Getz will become a high-average hitter at the major league level.

I can say that with confidence primarily because of how he controlled strike zone over his minor league career. He reminds me a bit of two young light-on-power second baseman we've seen come up in the last couple of years, Dustin Pedroia and Alexei Casilla, but in the form of a left-handed hitter. Making a comparison to player of Pedroia's caliber is always dangerous, but they're a similar type of player, though Getz will never be mentioned in MVP discussions. They take a walk and put the ball in play, and don't strike out much. Pedroia takes the not striking out part to a whole new level, which makes him far better than Casilla and Getz.

I bring up those two names not to get people excited about Getz' future, but to temper their immediate expectations for the beginning of the season. Pedroia was hitting well under .200 after his first month in '07, and Casilla hit just .222/.256/.259 in his 189 at-bats last year. For some reason, these Put It In Play With Little Power type hitters seem to struggle in their first exposure to major league pitching, even though the approach yields fine results over the long-term.

A look inside Getz' AAA numbers this season shows some troubling home/road splits. All of his career high 11 home runs came inside the small ball park at Charlotte, and he entered the '08 season with just 6 homers in his minor league career. He didn't show any platoon split in the minors, but it wouldn't be a bad idea to keep Juan Uribe around just in case he has trouble with major league lefties, or gets off to a slow start, or struggles defensively.

Getz was a teammate of Richard's at Michigan, and was taken 4 rounds ahead of him in the '05 draft. It was actually the second time the Sox had drafted Getz; he signed with Wake Forest out of high school before transferring to Michigan and being redrafted by the Sox.

Jack Egbert -- In truth, Egbert does not belong in this category. He did last year based on the inhuman HR suppression skills he demonstrated over two seasons, but he got touched up a bit in Charlotte's small ball park this season. Perhaps it was just the small dimensions (345' in the power alleys), perhaps it was some lingering elbow soreness that delayed the start of his season. Whatever it was, it's clear that Egbert fell down the Sox depth charts. As they desperately searched for competent bullpen help and a 5th starter, Egbert remained in Charlotte while Lance Broadway, Ehren Wasserman, and Horacio Ramirez helped the Sox put together the worst bullpen in baseball over the season's final two months.

Personally, I still believe that Egbert can (and will) be a successful major league pitcher. True, his stuff is nothing to write home about. But, he's got that funky hitch in his delivery, has a good changeup, and only one of his HR allowed came away from the castle. If he's still with the Sox in '09, I'd expect to see him improve on his '08 numbers in Charlotte, and move him back into the Why Hasn't This Guy Gotten A Shot? category.

Unfortunately for the Sox, a prospect like Egbert has little-to-no value on the trade market until he is able to prove himself against major league competition. And the only way to do that is by finally getting a legit shot. Egbert seems a bit like a guy the San Diego Padres might like; Kevin Towers because he fits into his mode for building a bullpen, and Paul DePodesta because of his good-to-excellent peripherals over the last three seasons. Otherwise, it's an extremely limited trade market for Egbert, with only a low-budget team like the Nationals figuring to even give him a second look.

I spent much of this post talking about peripherals and K/BB ratios because, aside from age and strong scouting report, it's the best indicator of future major league success or failure.