SB Nation - Jon Garland

Which pitcher do you want?

Ed Valentine — Sun, 20 Dec 2009 14:08:25 -0000

Travis mentioned the probability the Yankees will be seeking another starting pitcher in this morning's notebook. So, which guy do you want?

I think everybody left on on the market comes with questions. It's just a matter of which guy is the best gamble. Let's look at the most often mentioned candidates.

Ben Sheets: Probably the biggest upside, but also a huge injury risk factor. He would likely also be the most expensive option. Missed all of last season with an arm injury, but he has won at least 11 games six times and has a career WHIP of 1.201. A big risk, but possibly the biggest reward.
Justin Duchscherer: Also missed all of last season with an arm injury. Has two All-Star appearances in his xis-year career, and probably a lower price tag than Sheets. Offers a few things Sheets doesn't. First, all of his experience is in the American League. Second, has proven that he can be effective as both a starter and a reliever so would offer Joe Girardi flexibility.
Erik Bedard: Talented and left-handed, which are two nice advantages in Yankee Stadium. But, also injury prone and has made only 15 starts in each of the past two seasons. Plus, his toughness has been questioned in both Baltimore and Seattle. That could be a problem in New York.
Jon Garland: I know 'jscape' loves this guy, but I don't. Sure, he is pretty much a lock for 200 innings, but he is also extremely hittable. With balls flying out of Yankee Stadium like they do, I just don't see him as an effective option.
Jason Marquis: A 10-year veteran coming off a solid 15-13, 4.04 season (1.38 WHIP). But, Marquis has never pitched in the American League and that is a huge red flag for me.
Joel Pineiro: Another 10-year veteran coming off a good season where he went 15-12, 3.49 for St. Louis. It was Pineiro's best season since 2003. He has lots of AL experience with Seattle and Boston. Personally, I'm not convinced he can come close to repeating his 2009 season.

I'm not including the young Cuban left-hander Aroldis Chapman. Even if the Yankees do land the 21-year-old lefty he is highly unlikely to be a major league option in 2010, so I'm keeping him out of the debate.

Poll

Which starting pitcher should the Yankees add?

Jon Garland

63 votes

Joel Pineiro

45 votes

Erik Bedard

191 votes

Ben Sheets

868 votes

Justin Duchscherer

311 votes

Jason Marquis

75 votes

1553 votes | Poll has closed

Washington Nationals: Weekend Rumors - Jon Garland And...Randy Winn?

Ed Chigliak — Sun, 20 Dec 2009 02:29:24 -0000

More photos » by Kathy Willens - AP

Free agent outfielder Randy Winn was linked to the Washington Nationals by anonymous sources who say that Washington likes the 35-year-old outfielder's versatility. (AP Photo/Kathy Willens)

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• That the Washington Nationals are interested in free agent right-hander Jon Garland is not news, then ESPN-writer Peter Gammons spotted Garland's agent talking to the Nationals on the first day of the just-completed Winter Meetings, but the fact that they're talking dollars and years is a revelation, as FOXSports.com's Ken Rosenthal reported this morning in an update of FOXSports.com's, "Buzz: Latest from the MLB offseason", subtitled "Sources: Nats eye Garland" that an unnamed source of his says, "Garland, 30, is seeking a three-year contract...(but)..the Nationals would prefer to sign him for two years." If the Nationals are unable to reach a deal with Garland, Mr. Rosenthal's source believes, "...the Nats could turn to another free-agent starter, possibly right-hander Jason Marquis or lefty Doug Davis."

• Garland was in the final year of a 3-year/$29M dollar contract when he was traded from the Chicago White Sox to the LA Angels for SS Orlando Cabrera in November 2007. Following the '08 campaign, the right-handed starter signed a 1-year/$7.25M dollar free agent deal with the Arizona Diamondbacks in late January of 2009, and he was subsequently traded by the D-Backs to the LA Dodgers in late August '09, with Los Angeles declining to pick up his option after the season, making him a free agent once again. ESPN.com's Keith Law, in an update of their Rumor Central reports (for Insider's Only) entitled, "Nats in on three starters" says, "Giving Jon Garland more than one year is overpaying." Mr. Law believes that if the Nationals simply, "...hold firm and make the most lucrative 1-yr deal they get the player."

• Mr. Law's colleague at ESPN, Jerry Crasnick sent out two Nationals-related Tweets this afternoon, in which he claimed that Washington was interested in free agent outfielder Randy Winn. The first Crasnick Tweet simply linked to another ESPN.com Rumor Central post entitled, "Crasnick: Winn on Nats' radar", and the second Crasnick Tweet explained why the Nationals are looking at the 35-year-old free agent outfielder:

"The Nationals like Winn's versatility, and think he could be a positive influence on Elijah Dukes. Do they have enough ABs for him?"

Mr. Crasnick cites Winn's weak '09 OPS and his .158 AVG against left-handers as the reasons why he's having a hard time finding a starting job as a free agent coming off a 3-year deal with the San Francisco Giants which paid the outfielder $8.25 million last year. Though Winn couldn't touch left-handed pitchers, (.158 AVG, .184 OPS in 120 AB's), Winn did manage to hit .292 with a .751 OPS in 418 AB's against righties last season, in which he hit 32 doubles, 2 triples and 3 HR's. Defensively, in 146 games (104 in RF, 54 in LF, 22 CF), Winn was error-free in '09, with the second-best UZR/150 rating in the NL amongst outfielders, behind only the Nationals' CF Nyjer Morgan.

Does Winn make sense in DC though? With Roger Bernadina and Justin Maxwell thought to be ready to challenge for at least a roster spot this season, and Willie Harris due $1.5M in the second-year of a two-year deal, does signing a solid 4th outfielder make any sense?

(ed. note - "Speaking of Nyjer Morgan...FOXSports.com's Ken Rosenthal reported in an update of FOXSports.com's, "Buzz: Latest on the MLB offseason", subtitled, "Cubs 'not leaning toward' any particular CF", that in their search for outfield help, the Chicago Cubs, according to "a source", "....have asked the Nationals about Nyjer Morgan...but Washington officials want to keep him." Are the Cubs nuts? Find your own base-stealing Tony Plush, Chi-Town!")

Nationals eye Jon Garland

Eli Greenspan — Sat, 19 Dec 2009 23:22:02 -0000

More photos » by Ross D. Franklin - AP

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FOXSPORTS.com is reporting that the Nationals are making a strong run at free agent starter Jon Garland. Garland is believed to be seeking a three year deal, likely similar to what Randy Wolf received from the Brewers.

Garland, 30, posted 11 wins last season with the Diamondbacks and Dodgers, and posted a 3.35 ERA after June 1st.

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Jon Garland	3-2	6	6	0	0	0	0	36.1	37	16	11	4	9	26	2.72	1.27

The Nationals also have their eyes on Jason Marquis and Doug Davis, so it is likely that they will make a splash on the free agent starter market in the near future.

Just desserts? Arizona's starters and their W-L records

Jim McLennan — Sat, 19 Dec 2009 01:00:18 -0000

by Lenny Ignelzi - AP

Josh Geer: the unluckiest pitcher in baseball? And not solely because he has to play for the Padres.

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Over on True Blue LA a while ago, Eric Stephen looked at the hard luck experienced in 2009 by Clayton Kershaw, who only picked up eight victories despite an ERA+ of 149. That's the highest ever by a pitcher who made 25 or more starts and got single-digits in wins. Inspired by this - never one to miss out on the chance of a cheap off-season post! - I thought I'd take a look at some of the stats for Arizona's pitchers and see what light they shed on the W-L records they 'should' have got.

After the jump, that's exactly what I'll do. And, why yes, there will be pretty charts and attractively-colored graphs, thank you for asking.

We'll start at Baseball Prospectus, which has a couple of stats of interest. Expected Wins and Expected Losses are "the record for the pitcher, based on how often pitchers with the same innings pitched and runs allowed earned a win or loss historically." They also offer Support-Neutral Wins and Losses, which is "the pitcher's expected number of wins/losses assuming he had league-average support." The sum of the latter wins and losses always equals the number of starts - there's no concept of a "no decision" there, but it's still another number to look at. Here are these for the six Diamondbacks pitchers with a significant number of starts this season.

Name	ERA	W-L	EW-EL	SNW-SNL
Dan Haren	3.14	14-10	15-9	19-14
Doug Davis	4.12	9-14	12-12	18-16
Max Scherzer	4.12	9-11	10-11	14-16
Jon Garland	4.29	8-11	10-10	13-14
Yusmeiro Petit	5.82	3-10	5-7	7-10
Billy Buckner	6.40	4-6	4-6	6-7

Another way you can look at luck and a pitcher's performance in by Game Score. This is a Bill James stat, which combines innings pitched and strikeouts with runs, hits and walks allowed, to come up with a single figure [more or less] between zero and a hundred, which measure the quality of a starter's outing. Over the period 2001-09 in the National League, the first number is the odds of a starter getting a win, loss and no-decision, for various Game Score numbers. As comparison, the second number is the Diamondbacks' percentage from the past year.

GS	W%	ND%	L%
<25	0.63% - 0.00%	15.85% - 0.00%	83.53%- 100.00%
25-29	3.55% - 0.00%	25.27% - 16.67%	71.17% - 83.33%
30-34	6.63% - 0.00%	29.33% - 33.33%	64.04% - 66.67%
35-39	12.55% - 11.11%	32.92% - 44.44%	54.54% - 44.44%
40-44	20.26% - 7.14%	35.04% - 28.57%	44.70% - 64.29%
45-49	25.27% - 13.33%	37.99% - 46.67%	36.75% - 40.00%
50-54	34.46% - 30.77%	36.49% - 23.07%	29.05% - 46.15%
55-59	43.40% - 22.73%	35.88% - 45.45%	20.71% - 31.81%
60-64	52.81% - 29.41%	32.24% - 35.29%	14.95% - 35.29%
65-69	63.44% - 66.67%	27.66% - 27.78%	8.91% - 5.56%
70-74	70.99% - 87.50%	22.85% - 12.50%	6.15% - 0.00%
75-79	77.96% - 71.43%	17.77% - 14.29%	4.27% - 14.29%
80+	87.22% - 100.00%	11.49% - 0.00%	1.29% - 0.00%

For those who prefer things in more visual terms, the graph below plots game score against the three possible decisions - loss, no-decision and win - at various levels of Game Score. As you'll see, the odds of a no-decision remains relatively constant, except at the extreme ends of the performance spectrum.

Comparing the Diamondbacks' numbers to the expected ones, the biggest gap is in the upper middle of performances, something previously touched upon by Diamondhacks. As a yardstick, league average was 50, and Adam Wainwright's mean GS this year was 59, But in 39 games with a GS of 55-64, the Arizona rotation went only 10-13: they would be predicted to go 19-7 in starts of that caliber. The reason for the gulf is simple: in those 39 games, the offense scored more than four runs only eight times, and one or zero a dozen times. We got good pitching - only three of those outings were not quality starts - but the hitters just didn't show up.

On an individual basis, there's a couple of ways you can use the data. The quick and dirty approach is to take a pitcher's average Game Score over the season, see what group he falls into, and multiply by his starts. For example, Dan Haren's average GS was 61, so he's expected to win 0.5281 * 33 = 17.4 games. If you want something a little less granular, take each start and allocate a fraction of W and L accordingly. Haren's first start had a GS of 76 - he took the loss (3-0 vs. Colorado), but by the chart , the performance was actually worth 0.7796 wins and only 0.0427 losses. Do this for each game and add up total wins and losses to get a cumulative number. The chart below gives the numbers calculated by each method (QWL = Quick W-L; CWL = Cumulative W-L) for our starters.

Name	Avg GS	QWL	CWL
Dan Haren	61	17-5	17-7
Doug Davis	51	12-10	12-11
Max Scherzer	50	10-9	11-10
Jon Garland	48	7-10	9-10
Yusmeiro Petit	45	4-6	5-7
Billy Buckner	45	3-5	4-5

There isn't too much difference between the two methods - the quick way tends to give the pitcher fewer decisions, but they're within a couple of each other in all the cases. Carving up the data in another way, we can compare Average Game Score with Win %. It seems reasonable to think that an AGD of 0 would see you lose every time, an AGS of 100 would get you a 100% Win %, and an AGS of 50 would see a pitcher get close to an even record. So which NL starters had the biggest gap between their AGS and Win %? Here are those at both ends of the table (min. 10 starts)

Name	AGS	W-L
Josh Geer	45	1-7
Ross Detwiler	45	1-6
Nelson Figueroa	51	3-8
Felipe Paulino	45	3-11
Yusmeiro Petit	45	3-10
-----------------------	-----	-----
Josh Johnson	57	15-5
Chris Carpenter	62	17-4
J.A. Happ	56	12-4
Clayton Richard	50	5-2
Braden Looper	44	14-7

All six of the main Diamondbacks starters ended up in the top half of the 97 qualifying starters: Petit (#5); Davis (#17); Scherzer (#31); Buckner (#36); Garland (#42); Haren (#45). Kershaw, incidentally, was #26 by this method, with an AGS of 58 and a .500 record. Worth remembering this chart the next time tries to tell you that wins and losses are a good measure of a pitcher's ability. As measured by Game Score, any of the top five pitchers were better than Braden Looper - but mustered only eleven wins between them, with 42 losses, fewer victories in 75 starts, than Looper got all by himself.

For interest, the chart below plots W% against Game Score for every pitcher since 2000 with ten or more starts. Here's the Google spreadsheet with the numbers, if anyone wants to analyze them further - also included are ERA, ERA+, OPS and OPS+ for each starterr. The resulting correlation between Game Score and W%, at 0.61, is actually fractionally better than that for ERA+ (-0.60) or OPS+ (-0.57).

This method of analysis does have some limitations. Game Score doesn't take into account park factors, for example, I'm not overly happy with the bonus points it awards for strikeouts, and for some pitchers, the W-L record can include relief appearances. However, based not only upon it, but other metrics as well, it does suggest that our starting pitching was really not much of the problem last season. Virtually across the entire rotation, from Haren to Buckner, none of them got the W-L record their performances deserved.

Washington Nationals: Jason Marquis, Joel Piniero and Jon Garland?

Ed Chigliak — Thu, 17 Dec 2009 06:46:46 -0000

More photos » by Paul Connors - AP

Free agent pitcher Jason Marquis is on the record saying he'd be interested in helping the Washington Nationals build toward respectability. (AP Photo/Paul Connors)

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To hear FOXSports.com's Ken Rosenthal and Jon Paul Morosi tell it, the Washington Nationals, "...remain intent on adding two starting pitchers before Opening Day," and according to an unnamed "major league source", the Nationals, "...would prefer that at least one of them be a No. 2 starter or better." The names Mr.'s Rosenthal and Morosi mention in an update of, "Buzz: Latest from the MLB offseason", subtitled, "NL East rotation after Doc's arrival", will not surprise members of the DC Faithful who've been following new DC GM Mike Rizzo's attempts to add veteran depth to a young starting staff:

"Among the names presently on their list: Joel Pineiro, Jon Garland and Jason Marquis, in no particular order."

Newark Star-Ledger sports writer Brian Costa wrote about the state of the NY Mets' search for starting pitching today too, in an article (laboriously) entitled, "After losing season, NY Mets face bigger challenge in luring top free agents", which is all about the pall that a 72-90 '09 campaign has cast on the Mets' franchise when combined with a power-draining mistake of a new ballpark. (ed. note - "Is that too harsh? It is better than Shea? Whatever...") Mr. Costa notes that the Mets, having been snubbed by John Lackey, and are facing the realization that they are, "No longer...the prime destination for free agents," that they have been in previous seasons, which leaves them competing with the likes of the Nationals for available free agent talent. (ed. note - "I wrote that last part, not Mr. Costa.")

FOXSports.com's Ken Rosenthal and Jon Paul Morosi write that, "...the Mets still view Pineiro and Marquis as options to upgrade their rotation," but New York is negotiating with Jason Bay first, with the talks turning "serious" according to the latest reports. Piniero, a 31-year-old right-handed former Mariners, Red Sox (for a minute) and Cardinals' starter, is said to be seeking a four-year deal by a separate source of the FOXSports.com writers, who also report that Marquis is looking for a "two-or-three year deal."

The Nationals openly expressed interest in Jon Garland in the first week of December, with DC GM Mike Rizzo telling Washington Post writer Chico Harlan, in a Nationals Journal post entitled, "Garland, Willingham, Bruney, PTBNL, Flores", that Washington was intent on pursuing the 30-year-old righty, "'Yeah, we have interest in Jon Garland,' he said. 'We've had it the whole time. He's one of the 10 names we've been talking about throughout the whole winter.'" MLB.com's writer Bill Ladson talked to Jason Marquis recently, and he told Mr. Ladson in an article entitled, "Marquis interested in Nationals", that he'd be interested in signing with Washington, though he's also admitted an interest in pitching in New York...Piniero's intentions, in terms of a destination, are as yet unstated.

Dodgers Offseason Path Appears Set

Eric Stephen — Thu, 10 Dec 2009 07:01:01 -0000

More photos » by David Zalubowski - AP

Juan Pierre may be traded to fill a hole in the starting rotation.

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Through three days of the winter meetings, the Dodgers haven't made any deals, but we do have a better idea of their plans this offseason. Randy Wolf signed with the Brewers today for $29.75 million over three years, leaving the Dodgers with a sizable void to fill in their starting rotation.

Actually, there are two holes to fill, behind Clayton Kershaw, Chad Billingsley, and Hiroki Kuroda. It appears the Dodgers are still in the market for one starting pitcher, but general manager Ned Colletti said he is looking to fill one of the two open rotation slots from within. Ken Gurnick of MLB.com reported:

Colletti said he's comfortable holding the last rotation spot for a Spring Training competition involving James McDonald, Scott Elbert, Josh Lindblom, Charlie Haeger and Ramon Troncoso. Colletti added left-hander Eric Stults to that group he originally listed on Tuesday.

In my mind, Elbert is the favorite of that group, with his electric left arm, but there is plenty of time for that to get sorted out. McDonald had success out of the bullpen (2.72 ERA, 8.70 strikeouts per nine innings), and I can see him returning to that role in 2010, even though I'm not ready to give up on him as a starter just yet. Both Haeger and Stults are out of options, so they will not only be fighting for a starting role at Camelback Ranch, but also will be fighting for their baseball lives.

How the Dodgers fill that other starting rotation slot has yet to be seen, but the Dodgers don't have much room in their budget without getting creative. If the Dodgers wanted to pay a pitcher $10 million a year, they would have either offered Wolf arbitration, or made an offer to him when presented the opportunity by Wolf's agent, Arn Tellem, today. Wolf's deal, coupled with Brad Penny's deal with St. Louis (one year, $7.5 million plus incentives) and the oft-injured Rich Harden's deal with Texas (one year, $7.5 million with an $11.5 million option for 2011), made it clear that most free agent pitchers are simply out of the Dodgers' price range. If they sign a free agent pitcher, it might be someone like a Vicente Padilla and Jon Garland, again. That is, if they come cheaply enough.

Another option to fill the starting pitching void is to trade Juan Pierre. The idea here is to swap Pierre's contract (two years, $18.5 million) for a high-priced pitcher in a swap of inflated contracts, using that money to pay for a position in need rather than for a fourth outfielder. Options here include:

		2009		2010 Projected
Pitcher	2010 Age	ERA	FIP	ERA	FIP	Contract remaining
Bronson Arroyo	33	3.84	4.78	4.11	4.49	2010: $11m; 2011: $11m option ($2m buyout)
Aaron Harang	32	4.21	4.14	4.18	4.14	2010: $12.5m; 2011: $12.75m option ($2m buyout)
Paul Maholm	28	4.44	3.83	4.29	4.20	2 years, $11m total, plus $9.75m option for 2012
Nate Robertson	32	5.44	4.55	4.89	4.67	2010: $10m
Jeremy Bonderman	27	only 10 IP		4.43	4.22	2010: $12.5m
2010 Projections from Bill James Handbook					Contract info courtesy of the amazing Cot's

I would have thought Kevin Millwood was another trade option (due $12 million in 2010), but he was traded to the Orioles earlier Wednesday. Maholm may be a pipe dream, as his contract isn't all that onerous, but the Pirates seem interested in Pierre, so maybe there is a fit.

Matching up Pierre with a team directly might be tough, so a three-team trade may be the way to go. In fact, Pierre may be traded to fill a different hole, second base. Steve Henson of Yahoo Sports tweeted this on Wednesday night:

Dodgers are more concerned about 2B than letting on publicly, but 3-way trade tries at offing Pierre while filling 2B aren't working yet.

This is interesting, because in the report by Gurnick, Colletti showed a faith in Blake DeWitt manning the second base next season:

At second base, he's sounding more and more comfortable with DeWitt, although he still hopes to add a veteran from a group of free agents that includes Ronnie Belliard, Craig Counsell, Juan Uribe, Jamey Carroll and Felipe Lopez.

"Barring something not on the radar, it will be Blake DeWitt plus a veteran if we started the season today," Colletti said

Whether or not any budget constraints forced this philosophy, Colletti appears to have a faith in the Dodgers' young talent to play a big role in 2010. If you ask me, I think the Dodgers bring back one of Garland or Padilla, and bring back Belliard to caddy for the Blakes -- DeWitt at second and Casey at third. Which means the 2010 Dodgers will look a lot like the 2009 Dodgers in many ways, and the returning cast will have to step up.

Diamond Leung reported that Colletti expressed that same sentiment while showing faith in Chad Billingsley in an interview with Sirius XM:

"Sometimes, you have to make your guys better. You just can’t continue to expect to fill everything from the outside and continue to sign free agents and continue to trade away players. You end up in the same spot more times than not and most of the time worse off than before you started making moves…

The 2010 Dodgers need their guys to be better if they want to stay atop the NL West.

Washington Nationals: Winter Meetings Wrap.

Ed Chigliak — Thu, 10 Dec 2009 01:28:33 -0000

More photos » by Haraz N. Ghanbari - AP

Washington Nationals general manager Mike Rizzo found the catcher he wanted at the Winter Meetings, now the Nationals need to add some pitching. (AP Photo/Haraz N. Ghanbari)

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Before the Winter Meetings, the Washington Nationals made clear that they did not think it was absolutely essential that they add the pitching help they need from the top of the free agent class or within the three-day span of the Indianapolis Winter Meetings, as DC GM Mike Rizzo explained to MLB.com's Bill Ladson, who wrote in a 12/2/09 article entitled, "Pitching the focus for Nats at Meetings", that fans shouldn't, "...look for the the Nationals to attempt to break the bank," in pursuit of free agent help, as they did last Winter in their pursuit of Mark Teixeira, who we've been told, time and again, was seen as a once-in-a-generation talent, but instead should accept the fact that it's more, "...likely that Rizzo will make trades."

(cont.)...

BACKPAGE:

• The LIST.

• Oh...AND LIVAN HERNANDEZ!

• Guzman To Second, Desmond At Short?

• Bally To The Bullpen? WT...

BACKPAGE:

• The LIST as the DC Faithful are calling it, (ed. note - "No one is calling it that."), that Rizzo gave to Washington Post writer Chico Harlan for an article entitled, "Reading Material, Shopping Lists", of pitchers that the Nationals were interested in this winter, started with 14 names, but as the Winter Meetings officially end following tomorrow's Rule 5 Draft, the list has been shortened some, from, "Jason Marquis, Randy Wolf, John Lackey, Cliff Lee, Jon Garland, Kevin Millwood, Tim Hudson, Brad Penny, Joel Piñeiro, Braden Looper, Jarrod Washburn, Brandon Webb, Brett Myers, John Smoltz and more..." to, as the Post's Chico Harlan wrote in two Nationals Journal posts entitled, "The starting pitching shopping list", and "The starting pitching, Pt. II":

"(Jon Garland and)...almost every established free agent starting pitcher except the A-lister, John Lackey. So, the Nats would entertain the possibility of Jarrod Washburn, Joel Pineiro, Vicente Padilla, Jason Marquis, and John Smoltz."

• Oh...AND LIVAN HERNANDEZ!

After Washington Post writer Dave Sheinin wrote about Elijah Dukes' winter, he added a note to the end of an article entitled, "Nationals notes: Dukes, L. Hernandez", about the Washington Nationals making contract with the agent for Mr. National Himself, Livan Hernandez, the original Nationals' Ace, who has openly expressed his desire to return to the nation's capital since the end of the '09 season. Mr. Sheinin writes that Hernandez's agent, "(Barry) Praver would not characterize the talks", but in the Washington Post writer's opinion it would take, "...a one-year contract with a low base and ample performance incentives."

-- (ed. note - "Do you want to see Livan Hernandez return to the Nationals? From what I've read in the comments, it's pretty much split amongst the DC Faithful...Should the Nationals let Livan teach Strasburg the eephus?")

• Guzman To Second, Desmond At Short?

MLB.com's Bill Ladson was Twittering throughout the Winter Meetings, letting Nationals' fans know what was going on long before it went into print (as were the Washington Times' writers), and the biggest revelation out of the final day in Indianapolis was that the Nationals had made up their minds about what to do with their twenty-ten middle infield:

"It appears the Nats will take a chance with Cristian Guzman at second base. That means Orlando Hudson is not coming to DC."

Does that mean that Ian Desmond is officially a "Go!" at short? Are the Nationals still going to try to find another option at short?

• Bally To The Bullpen? WT...

The other interesting thing that MLB.com's Bill Ladson Twittered was the idea that:

"The Nats may rely on some of their youngsters in the bullpen. Luis Atilano, Collin Balester and Craig Stammen are candidates."

As the Nationals' system produces more pitching, some of the older starters who haven't established themselves are going to have to make the move to the pen to make room for the next wave of pitchers. Is Balester on that list in your mind? (ed. note - "Not mine.")...What about J.D. Martin? Shairon Martis? Atilano? Stammen? Ross Detwiler? Is this Washington's way of saying why sign relievers when we have all these arms under contract?

Washington Nationals: Monday At The Winter Meetings.

Ed Chigliak — Tue, 08 Dec 2009 04:56:36 -0000

More photos » by Bill Kostroun - AP

Former New York Yankees' reliever Brian Bruney has designs on the closer's role in DC, we'll see what Mike MacDougal and Drew Storen have to say aboot that... (AP Photo/Bill Kostroun)

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According to The Bill James Handbook 2010 Pitcher Projections, if Brian Bruney finds a role in the Nationals' bullpen, be it as a closer or somewhere in set-up or middle relief, DC fans can expect the 27-going-on-28-year-old right-hander to throw about 50.0 innings and allow 45 hits and 5 HR's, while walking 34, striking out around 48 and posting a (3-3) record with a 4.88 ERA. The year 2000 D-Backs' draft pick, (when DC GM Mike Rizzo was out there), who was released by Arizona in '06, signed by New York shortly thereafter and then today traded to Washington, D.C. told Washington Post writer Chico Harlan (in a welcome return) in a Nationals Journal post entitled, "Bruney wants the chance to close", that, (and get this, cause it's all kinds of backwards):

"'I felt like New York was a good stepping stone with lots of pressure-filled situations. But to be honest, I had talked to my agent and I said, 'I can't wait to get to the place where I can try and close somewhere.'"

Whether or not he imagined Washington as that hypothetical "somewhere" Mr. Bruney does not say. Nationals' Skipper Jim Riggleman does, however, offer his opinion on his late-game options to Mr. Harlan, who quotes the full-time manager stating that, "As we sit here right now it's undetermined who would be our closer." That's got to be good news to Mike MacDougal and Drew Storen who no doubt have designs on the closer's role...

BACKPAGE:

• Garland Is A Target.

• Riggleman On The Radio.

BACKPAGE:

• Garland Is A Target.

I mentioned yesterday that ESPN.com's Peter Gammons was reporting on the fact that Washington was talking to free agent pitcher Jon Garland's agent, Craig Landis and also noted that only a few days earlier DC GM Mike Rizzo had told MLB.com's Bill Ladson just a few days earlier in an article entitled, "PItching is a focus for Nats at Meetings", that he didn't see the Nationals, "...going after that super free agent like Matt Holliday or Jon Garland." Luckily things were cleared up this afternoon, as Bill Ladson sent out two Tweets from the Meetings which read:

"General manager Mike Rizzo said the Nationals have interest in right-hander Jon Garland."

"The news comes a week after Mike Rizzo told MLB.com that he didn't see the Nats going after Jon Garland."

In MLB.com's Bill Ladson's article on the the Nationals' now-clearly-stated-interest in Garland entitled, "Nats eye free agents Garland, Ausmus", Mr. Rizzo tells Mr. Ladson:

"We have interest in Jon Garland. We have the whole time," Rizzo said. "He is one of the 10 names we have talked about the whole winter."

Well at least we know the list that Washington Post writer Chico Harlan published in his Nationals Journal post entitled, "Reading Material, Shopping Lists" was fairly accurate:

"Jason Marquis, Randy Wolf, John Lackey, Cliff Lee, Jon Garland, Kevin Millwood, Tim Hudson, Brad Penny, Joel Piñeiro, Braden Looper, Jarrod Washburn, Brandon Webb, Brett Myers, John Smoltz and more."

(ed. note - "If you aren't following MLB.com's Bill Ladson (twitter.com/washingnats), the NatsTownNews, (twitter.com/NatsTownNews) or the Washington Times' writers Ben Goessling and Mark Zuckerman, (twitter.com/washtimesbb), you're really missing out, they had the Bruney trade out to fans a good 30-40 minutes before it was reported anywhere else...Well, actually I think the New York Post's Joel Sherman (twitter.com/nyp_joelsherman), had it first, but I doubt they're will be any more deals with NY teams...Do not trade the Hammer to the Mets, Rizzo...")

• Riggleman On The Radio.

• DC Manager Jim Riggleman appeared on XM's Inside Pitch with Casey Stern and Buck Martinez, where he told the two announcers that he knew the Washington had their, "...work cut out for them," in 2010, but the team, "...had a good draft last year, we hope to have another good draft this year, and just keep accumulating talent," in the hope that, "...that talent will manifest itself eventually in a lot of wins. We owe it to our fans, they've been great, they've been very supportive, very enthusiastic in Washington, so we want to get them some wins."

• Mr. Riggleman says it was important to get the time in as the interim manager that he did at the end of the '09 campaign because he was able to see, "...parts of our ballclub come up, you know, those September call-ups, prospect-type guys, I got to see them, I got to see our regulars. I got to see guys in different positions...move some people around. Guys hitting in different parts of the lineup, what makes guys tick, you get to know the players, and you know, just the moods of the players, the ebbs and flow, and all that was huge, cause a lot of things they got to learn about me are out of the way also..."

• Buck Martinez asks Mr. Riggleman what the future holds for Jesus Flores? In Mr. Riggleman's opinion, "...that's a huge point," because Flores, "...is important part to our lineup. He's a good catcher, our pitchers like throwing to him, he's a leader behind the plate, but he's a big part of our lineup offensively. So, he's a question mark. Physically, we hear that he may be ready mid-Spring-Training...but you know how that is...as a manager you have to live by Murphy's Law a little bit, so we have to operate in a manner of, well maybe he won't be ready. So, we've probably got to try to fortify our catching a little bit here, you know, during the meetings."

• Ian Desmond? Buck Martinez says that Desmond looked like he was, "...made to play in the big leagues." Riggleman's impression of the potential starting shortstop? "Ian really played well for us in September. Tim Foli was his manager in Triple-A, and Tim said, 'You know the guy can make all the plays.' He's really, after the '08 season, for whatever reason, I think there was an injury involved, in '08, '08 was a little bit lost year for him, so in '09 the expectations were not as high, but he came out of nowhere, reestablished himself as maybe our best position prospect...came to the big leagues and played very well, hit some balls out of the ballpark, displayed a great arm, good hands, good range, he's just got to settle down a little bit, make the routine play a little more consistently, but you would be willing to live with the few mistakes that he might make because he's an extraordinary athlete."

• How important is adding experienced players like Brian Bruney to the Nationals' locker room? "That's always important," according to Mr. Riggleman, "...if you can get those guys, that's big. And as you said, Bruney has been in some big ballgames, I don't think that we're going to be able to put him in a situation that's going to intimidate him after where he's pitched, but, you know, we had that last year, a guy like Ronnie Villone, was a great presence on our ballclub. Ronnie pitched in big ballgames throughout his career, and any time you can get those kind of guys to mentor some of your other players it's huge, and we'll always welcome those kind of guys in our clubhouse."

Washington Nationals: Welcome To The Winter Meetings...

Ed Chigliak — Mon, 07 Dec 2009 07:51:28 -0000

More photos » by Gus Ruelas - AP

ESPN's Peter Gammons reports that the Nationals have talked to free agent pitcher Jon Garland's agent. (AP Photo/Gus Ruelas)

Browse more photos »

The first report concerning the Washington Nationals to come out of the Winter Meetings is from ESPN's Peter Gammons who writes in a post on his blog entitled, "Notes from the winter meetings", that the Nationals, "...(want) to sign a couple starters, and they are talking to (Jon) Garland's agent Craig Landis." Of course...DC GM Mike Rizzo told MLB.com's Bill Ladson, just the other day, in an article entitled, "Pitching the focus for Nats at Meetings", that though the Nationals realize, "Pitching is a priority," in his opinion:

"'We don't think that the free-agent class leads us to [pay big money],' Rizzo said. 'I believe the things we need or want the most are out there, and we are going to address it. I don't see us going after that super free agent like Matt Holliday or Jon Garland. I don't see us playing on that level. We don't think it's a fit for us.'"

Garland, the 30-year-old right-handed veteran of 10 MLB seasons, became a free agent when the LA Dodgers, who'd acquired him from Arizona on August 31, 2009 in exchange for a PTBNL, declined Garland's $10.0 million dollar option for 2010. In 2009, Garland, who earned $6.25M, was (11-13) in 27 starts for the D-Backs and 6 with the Dodgers, for whom he was (3-2) with a 2.72 ERA and a 1.26 WHIP down the stretch as LA took the NL West by 3.0 games over Colorado.

(ed. note - "I'll put the Twitter feed up here later this morning and update throughout the day...if and when anything happens...")

BACKPAGE:

• NY Times' Writer On Mets And Willingham.

BACKPAGE:

• NY Times' Writer On Mets And Willingham.

Early Monday morning, New York Times' writer Ben Shpigel, in an article entitled, "Minaya Arrives In Indy, Feeling No Pressure To Make Moves", reported on the rumors of the NY Mets' interest in DC outfielder Josh Willingham, confirming that there was interest in the Mets' part, but as Mr. Shpigel writes:

"...Washington's Josh Willingham...fits precisely what they need: a right-handed hitting left fielder with power. But the Nationals, realizing Willingham is a prime chip, want a lot in return, making such a trade unlikely."

No word on what the Mets would be willing to part with or what the Nationals are asking for in return for their soon-to-be 31-year-old outfielder who hit 29 doubles and 24 HR's last season, collecting 61 RBI's and posting a .260 AVG, .367 OBP and a .496 SLG.

2010 CHONE Projections: Pitching

Eric Stephen — Sun, 06 Dec 2009 07:14:56 -0000

More photos » by Jae C. Hong - AP

You know you're good when you are projected to strikeout 11.8 strikeouts per nine innings in 2010, and that's a drop of nearly two strikeouts from 2009.

Browse more photos »

Last month, Sean Smith of Anaheim Angels All The Way released his 2010 CHONE projections for offense. Now, we have the pitching projections as well. More info can be found at BaseballProjection.com. I have added the projections for many Dodgers, including some outgoing free agents, to go with the projections from the 2010 Bill James Handbook. As more projection systems release their projections, I will add them so we can get a more complete overall preview of the 2010 Dodgers.

I calculated FIP for the projections based on the formula at The Hardball Times. In these projections, keep in mind that playing time and pitching role is merely estimated.

Starters
Clayton Kershaw
Year	IP	ERA	FIP	BB/9	K/9
2009 Bill James	---	---	---	---	---
2009 CHONE	115	4.15	4.30	4.46	7.98
2009 actual	171.0	2.79	3.06	4.79	9.74
2010 Bill James	180	3.25	3.47	4.55	9.40
2010 CHONE	151	3.58	3.68	4.65	9.42
2010 status	under club control

Chad Billingsley
Year	IP	ERA	FIP	BB/9	K/9
2009 Bill James	193	3.68	3.72	3.92	8.81
2009 CHONE	161	3.69	3.70	3.75	8.72
2009 actual	196.1	4.03	3.77	3.94	8.21
2010 Bill James	185	3.65	3.77	3.94	8.61
2010 CHONE	182	3.71	3.73	3.76	8.60
2010 status	arbitration eliglble

Hiroki Kuroda
Year	IP	ERA	FIP	BB/9	K/9
2009 Bill James	192	3.89	4.38	2.53	5.86
2009 CHONE	158	4.04	4.24	2.28	6.04
2009 actual	117.1	3.76	3.61	1.84	6.67
2010 Bill James	128	3.80	4.29	2.46	5.98
2010 CHONE	154	4.32	3.99	2.45	6.31
2010 status	under contract

Randy Wolf
Year	IP	ERA	FIP	BB/9	K/9
2009 Bill James	195	4.25	4.30	3.32	7.62
2009 CHONE	124	4.43	4.44	3.63	7.48
2009 actual	214.1	3.23	3.99	2.44	6.72
2010 Bill James	200	3.87	4.26	3.02	7.16
2010 CHONE	163	4.42	4.38	3.09	6.52
2010 status	free agent

Vicente Padilla
Year	IP	ERA	FIP	BB/9	K/9
2009 Bill James	151	4.71	4.71	3.28	6.26
2009 CHONE	152	4.91	4.77	3.55	6.34
2009 actual	147.1	4.46	4.51	3.30	5.93
2010 Bill James	141	4.66	4.73	3.26	6.19
2010 CHONE	155	4.70	4.74	3.60	6.27
2010 status	free agent
Padilla's stats with Texas included

Jon Garland
Year	IP	ERA	FIP	BB/9	K/9
2009 Bill James	186	4.69	5.02	2.90	4.40
2009 CHONE	187	5.01	4.50	2.60	4.91
2009 actual	204	4.01	4.43	2.69	4.81
2010 Bill James	216	4.33	4.62	2.67	4.54
2010 CHONE	186	4.55	4.53	2.71	4.60
2010 status	free agent
Garland's stats with Arizona included

Bullpen
Jonathan Broxton
Year	IP	ERA	FIP	BB/9	K/9
2009 Bill James	70	3.09	2.63	3.47	11.19
2009 CHONE	72	2.88	2.80	3.25	10.88
2009 actual	76.0	2.61	1.98	3.43	13.50
2010 Bill James	80	2.36	2.44	3.49	11.70
2010 CHONE	67	2.69	2.51	3.36	11.82
2010 status	arbitration eliglble

George Sherrill
Year	IP	ERA	FIP	BB/9	K/9
2009 Bill James	53	3.40	3.43	4.58	10.19
2009 CHONE	43	3.77	4.01	4.60	8.79
2009 actual	69.0	1.70	3.09	3.13	7.96
2010 Bill James	74	2.92	3.37	4.01	9.36
2010 CHONE	52	3.63	3.77	3.98	9.35
2010 status	arbitration eliglble
Sherrill's stats with Baltimore included

Hong-Chih Kuo
Year	IP	ERA	FIP	BB/9	K/9
2009 Bill James	69	3.39	2.90	3.52	10.96
2009 CHONE	45	3.00	2.71	3.00	11.00
2009 actual	30.0	3.00	3.18	3.90	9.60
2010 Bill James	48	3.00	3.00	3.75	10.50
2010 CHONE	39	3.23	3.23	3.23	9.69
2010 status	arbitration eliglble

Ronald Belisario
Year	IP	ERA	FIP	BB/9	K/9
2009 Bill James	---	---	---	---	---
2009 CHONE	37	6.08	6.58	5.11	5.59
2009 actual	70.2	2.04	3.26	3.69	8.15
2010 Bill James	69	4.04	4.25	4.17	7.17
2010 CHONE	60	4.50	4.55	4.05	7.50
2010 status	under club control

Ramon Troncoso
Year	IP	ERA	FIP	BB/9	K/9
2009 Bill James	---	---	---	---	---
2009 CHONE	60	4.20	4.08	3.60	6.75
2009 actual	82.2	2.72	3.31	3.70	5.99
2010 Bill James	72	3.88	3.59	3.75	6.63
2010 CHONE	71	4.06	3.95	3.55	6.59
2010 status	under club control

James McDonald
Year	IP	ERA	FIP	BB/9	K/9
2009 Bill James	---	---	---	---	---
2009 CHONE	127	4.54	5.12	4.11	7.72
2009 actual	63.0	4.00	4.29	4.86	7.71
2010 Bill James	74	3.77	4.27	4.01	9.12
2010 CHONE	62	3.77	4.05	4.06	9.29
2010 status	under club control

Scott Elbert
Year	IP	ERA	FIP	BB/9	K/9
2009 Bill James	---	---	---	---	---
2009 CHONE	43	3.98	4.36	5.65	10.47
2009 actual	19.2	5.03	4.73	3.20	9.61
2010 Bill James	---	---	---	---	---
2010 CHONE	47	3.64	3.81	4.60	10.72
2010 status	under club control

Cory Wade
Year	IP	ERA	FIP	BB/9	K/9
2009 Bill James	---	---	---	---	---
2009 CHONE	53	3.74	4.02	2.55	7.30
2009 actual	27.2	5.53	4.13	3.25	5.86
2010 Bill James	---	---	---	---	---
2010 CHONE	62	4.21	4.41	3.05	7.11
2010 status	under club control

In addition, here are some other notable 2010 CHONE projections for other Dodgers.

Other Projections
Pitcher	IP	ERA	FIP	BB/9	K/9	2010 Contract Status
Eric Stults	138	4.89	4.61	3.72	6.59	under club control (out of options)
Charlie Haeger	170	4.98	5.14	4.34	6.51	under club control (out of options)
Jeff Weaver	49	4.41	4.48	3.12	6.43	free agent

SB Nation - Jon Garland

Which pitcher do you want?

Which starting pitcher should the Yankees add?

Jon Garland

Joel Pineiro

Erik Bedard

Ben Sheets

Justin Duchscherer

Jason Marquis

Washington Nationals: Weekend Rumors - Jon Garland And...Randy Winn?

Nationals eye Jon Garland

Just desserts? Arizona's starters and their W-L records

Washington Nationals: Jason Marquis, Joel Piniero and Jon Garland?

Dodgers Offseason Path Appears Set

Washington Nationals: Winter Meetings Wrap.

Washington Nationals: Monday At The Winter Meetings.

Washington Nationals: Welcome To The Winter Meetings...

2010 CHONE Projections: Pitching

Starters

Bullpen