SB Nation - Kila Ka`aihue

Royals Review Prospect Pulse: September

nwroyal — Thu, 03 Sep 2009 13:00:19 -0000

The minor league season is wrapping up with some of the short season clubs already finished.

The big news with this list is the ascension of Mike Montgomery to the #1 spot. I flip-flopped him and Hosmer but eventually decided if a list that is charting performance through the year is worth anything, it needs to reward Montgomery for his incredible performance. I still like Hosmer quite a bit and think he will be very good once his hand issues/vision issues are taken care of but Montgomery is not a 'default' #1 because Hoz and Moose have struggled--he is legitimately one of the best LH pitching prospects in the game. Montgomery has the fastball with good velocity and good life plus an excellent change-up. And when he has his curve working, as he did earlier this week, we get 6+ IP with 12 Ks and 0 W. I had figured Montgomery would start next year back at Wilmington but he might just punch his ticket to AA.

This will be the last Prospect Pulse of the season and then I'll throw performance for the rest of the year, reports from Instructional League and Arizona Fall League together and then assemble my offseason prospect list.

Pitcher stats are listed: K-9ip/W-9ip/FIP. Batting stats are listed: avg/obp/slg

Rank	Name	Last Month	Age	Level	Aug. Stats	YTD	Comment
1	Mike Montgomery	2	20	High-A	7.6/1.2/2.21	Low-A 7.8/3.6/3.16 High-A 7.6/2.1/2.51	Hasn't had much trouble with High-A
2	Eric Hosmer	1	19	High-A	176/263/294	Low-A 255/352/385 High-A 196/260/272	We are left to wonder how he will do with better vision (and a healthy hand)
3	Mike Moustakas-3B	3	20	High-A	283/350/478	255/302/429	Hot month. A good AFL could restore his top prospect standing.
4	Aaron Crow-RHP	4	22	NA	NA	NA	We continue to wait...
5	Dan Duffy-LHP	5	20	High-A	9.4/3.9/3.31	8.4/2.9/3.21	Continues to be solid/very good.
6	David Lough-CF	10	23	AA	317/372/538	High-A 323/373/477 AA 330/369/531	Having a great year. Having defied expectations, its hard to know what his ceiling is.
7	Tim Melville-RHP	7	19	Low-A	9.8/4.6/5.23	8.7/4.1/4.34	Been very inconsistent
8	Jeff Bianchi-SS	6	22	AA	274/298/377	High-A 307/364/437 AA 312/352/424	Tough month.
9	J. Giavotella-2B	9	22	High-A	248/295/398	254/351/373	I know his numbers are stagnant but I'm standing by this guy
10	Dan Gutierrez-RHP	12	22	High-A	8.5/2.6/2.47	8.2/2.3/2.44	He's only allowed a run in 1 of his outings
11	Will Myers-C	13	18	SS	238/313/524	238/313/534	So far the bat looks for real
12	John Lamb-LHP	14	19	SS	9.9/2.4/3.71	9.0/2.5/4.1	Could zoom up this list next year
13	Kila Kaaihue-1B	8	25	AAA	235/354/407	254/394/447	Has been better mediocre the past two months
14	Jordan Parraz-RF	11	24	AAA	353/395/529	AA358/451/553 AAA 298/358/426	He supposedly hasn't been completely healthy for most of the year--wonder how he'll do when he is?
15	Chris Dwyer-LHP	15	21	SS	12.3/9.8/8.13	12.3/9.8/8.13	It will be interesting to see how they develop this kid-more like a HS or college arm?
16	Tyler Sample-RHP	19	20	SS	6.7/3.0/3.44	8.1/3.6/3.42	Has been putting it together--but isn't especially young for the level.
17	Kelvin Herrera-RHP	16	19	DL	NA	1.7/0.0/3.15	Here's the deal: he's had some arm issues but they think rest will take care of it (similar to what Gutierrez has had)
18	Carlos Rosa-RHP	18	24	AAA	12.1/3.5/2.96	10.1/4.1/3.83	Why isn't he in our bullpen?
19	Disco Hayes-RHP	17	26	AAA	3.9/1.5/3.98	AA 4.0/1.4/3.19 AAA 3.9/1.0/3.68	Struggled a little bit-but I hope he also gets a chance with the big club.
20	Luis Coleman-RHP	NR	23	High-A	1.83/12.1/1.9	Low-A 7.0/1.2/2.36 High-A 12.1/1.9/1.83	Has been lights out and is on the fast track
21	Derrick Robinson-CF	34	22	High-A	310/362/491	245/295/328	Zooms up with a great month.
22	Blaine Hardy-LHP	24	22	Low-A	12.4/1.5/2.31	9.0/1.7/2.47	Has clearly mastered Low-A but there isn't room on a loaded Wilmington roster.
23	Greg Holland-RHP	20	23	AAA	1.0/5.0/7.99	AA 9.5/3.7/3.10 AAA 1.0/5.0/7.99	Tough intro to AAA
24	Yowil Espinal-SS	18	27	SS	267/347/467	239/328/399	Pretty good month to close out his season--should see him with a full season club next year.
25	Salvador Perez-C	26	19	SS	353/383/459	SS 311/361/425 Low-A 189/230/236	Some catching help on the horizon?
26	Carlos Fortuna-RHP	19	25	SS	8.5/3.3/4.01	7.4/4.3/5.01	Needs to take a step forward next year.
27	Keaton Hayenga-RHP	23	21	SS	3.4/2.6/4.80	4.6/2.8/3.90	Where are the strikeouts?
28	Juan Abreu-RHP	20	24	AA	10.5/12.1/6.03	High-A 11.8/5.9/3.45 AA 12.7/10.1/4.95	Iffy control has gone from bad to worse.
29	Hilton Richardson	20	36	Low-A	SS 299/415/403 Low-A 182/250/182	SS 317/395/431 Low-A 182/250/182	Getting a shot at Low-A after Francis was suspended.
30	Barry Bowden-RHP	24	32	High-A	8.5/2.8/2.08	Low-A10.9/3.8/2.79 High-A 8.5/2.8/2.08	08 Non-drafted FA continues to produce.
31	Paulo Orlando-CF	23	23	High-A	293/321/320	266/307/358	Consistent mediocrity
32	Chris Lubanski-OF	24	28	AAA	057/154/086	275/357/456	He is a minor league FA at the end of the year-he's probably gone.
33	Sean McCauley	22	29	DL	NA	226/289/305	Been hurt
34	Jose Bonilla-C	21	31	Low-A	190/286/253	222/285/321	Wishes he was hurt
35	Jason Taylor-3B	21	33	Low-A	253/367/373	260/347/384	Power hasn't been there this year.
36	Dusty Odenback-RHP	21	40	Low-A	9.6/2.6/2.24	SS 6.3/2.7/2.94 Low-A 9.6/3.7/2.61	The Royals drafted a bullpen this past year
37	Brandon Sisk-LHP	24	37	High-A	9.7/2.8/2.27	11.4/2.5/2.22	Great numbers with iffy stuff
38	Alex Llanos-CF	18	38	SS	204/220/265	267/306/380	How big is the jump between AZ and Idaho Falls? Pretty big apparently.
39	Leondy Perez-RHP	19	39	SS	8.7/4.3/3.88	8.6/2.9/3.93	Good numbers at a low-level.
40	Malcolm Culver-3B	19	35	SS	215/337/266	226/328/339	Hopefully, one of our young but mediocre bats will step up next year.
41	Ben Theriot-C	21	42	SS	229/357/257	290/389/355	Not exactly sure why his ABs have been limited.
42	Deivy Batista-SS	21	43	SS	225/337/412	280/326/527	Curious to see where he plays next year.
43	Cole White-RHP	21	NR	Low-A	5.9/4.7/4.64	SS 9.6/5.4/4.04 Low-A 5.9/4.7/4.64	Lots of potential for this bullpen arm.
44	Jerico Blanco-OF	17	45	DSL	250/357/417	244/339/378	I can't wait to see what he is going to do stateside.
45	Mike Lehman-RHP	20	41	Low--A	5.6/7.5/6.40	4.6/5.0/5.44	Free-fallin'...
46	Ryan Wood-SS	22	NR	Low-A	247/352/403	SS 174/304/221 Low-A 247/352/403	09 draftee-he's an under the radar but worth watching.
47	Blake Wood-RHP	24	50	AA	5.4/8.1/4.92	5.7/3.1/4.35	He's baack--could be bullpen help next year.
48	Geuline Beltre-CF	18	NR	SS	233/247/400	212/256/354	Talented but needs to put it together.
49	Pedro Nivar-SS	17	NR	DSL	222/364/333	226/371/286	Gave him a big bonus last year and gets on base but no power yet.
50	Patrick Keating-RHP	22	NR	SS	14.8/1.9/1.40	12.9/2.8/2.51	More 09 draftees for the bullpen.

Player of the month: Derrick Robinson. I didn't expect that. After struggling all year and having an abysmal July, Robinson went nuts in August with 5 homers (compared to 0 the past year and a half). What does it mean? I have no idea. It could mean nothing or perhaps he figured some things out. He will go to Northwest Arkansas in 2010 where a lot of hitters improved their numbers. Robinson is supposed to have amazing defense in CF and if he couples that with a 700 OPS at the big league level--he could have value. We will have to wait until 2010 for the next indications of whether he can do that.

Sometimes, "I Told You So" Isn't All That Fun: Mystery WAR Graph II

devil_fingers — Wed, 03 Jun 2009 17:13:34 -0000

Sigh.

I'm guessing this won't be that hard for some people to figure out.

(All data from FanGraphs players pages -- current as of this posting).

Current RAR Totals:

Mike Jacobs: 2.5
Russell Branyan: 20.5
Eric Hinske: 3.0

If you followed the offseason at Royals Review at all, or perhaps my postings elsewhere, you might know that I was not overly enamoured with the Royals trade for Mike Jacobs (they sent the Marlins relief pitcher Leo Nunez). It wasn't because Nunez was all that great (he's been below replacement level so far this year, though I doubt that will last). It was a combination of things that I won't get into now in details -- mostly having to do with Jacobs being one of the worst defenders in baseball, not hitting left-handed pitching, and heading into his arbitration years. And, although he was and looked like an above-aveage hitter, he was just barely above average. As a DH-level defender, that means he's barely above replacement level.

Whether or not the Royals even needed a player like that is another debate. If they did, I (and others) reasoned at the time, why not just sign Russell Branyan or Eric Hinske? Sure, they were a bit older, and might not hit as well (although they were projected to hit around the same by most projection systems), but they actually had some defensive value and, more importantly, as we saw, they wouldn't cost the Royals any (cheap) talent and, indeed, they went for less than half of what Jacobs got in arbitration.

Needless to say, despite having been a predictable fan of Branyan's Three True Outcomes heritage for a while, I didn't see this coming, and he isn't this good. But at $1.5M for one-year (about the same salary as Willie Bloomquist is getting from the Royals), his contract was virtually risk-free, and wow has it paid off.

But what really got me going today is that Eric Hinske is actually at about the same WAR (actually slightly ahead) of Jacobs in less than 100 PA. He's getting around $1M this season. Sure, he isn't that good, but like Branyan, he can at least play credible first base. True, Jacobs is actually above average so far -- but it's an extremely small sample size -- all you need to know about what the Royals think of his defense can be expressed by the fact that after watching him play first for the first few games, KC decided they were better off making Billy Butler their full-time first baseman. Moreover, Hinske can play in the corner outfield and even fill-in at third if needed, and with the Alex Gordon injuries and Jose Guillen's "range," it's needed.

Would this make the Royals contenders this season? No,but it would save them money, which, as we all know by now, is the real currency of baseball.

Sometimes being right isn't much fun. Here's to me being wrong about this over the rest of the season.

And please, Dayton Moore, don't take this as a request to sign Russell the Muscle to a 3/$36M contract in the offseason.

Royals Review Prospect Pulse: June

nwroyal — Wed, 03 Jun 2009 14:40:08 -0000

Things get a lot more interesting this month in the prospect pulse. One of our top prospects bounce back from a difficult first month and a couple of our top pitching prospects make their full season debut. Later this month, our short season affiliates will start playing. The best part of minor league season is when all 7 affiliates are up and running and draftees from next week will start getting assigned. Speaking of the draft, I hope to have a draft news and notes article up tomorrow as we are only 6 days away from the big event. Meanwhile, enjoy the rankings, rip them apart, tell me why I'm right or wrong.

For hitters, we've got the traditional triple slash numbers and for pitchers you see: ERA/K/BB

Rank	Name	last month	age	level	month stats	YTD	Comment
1	Eric Hosmer-1B	1	19	A	299/413/483	267/383/400	Starting to click, power will be the next thing to come.
2	Mike Moustakas-3B	2	20	A+	266/296/404	269/306/445	Slumping of late, but not too worried--yet...
3	Dan Duffy-LHP	3	20	A+	2.10/33/10	2.95/53/15	crusin' along-getting more GB but less K vs. his 08 numbers
4	Kila Kaaihue--1B	5	25	AAA	299/434/557	275/431/525	guess last year wasn't a fluke, was it?
5	M. Montgomery--LHP	7	19	A	3.27/12/10	3.27/12/10	some control issues but gets lots of ground balls
6	Tim Melville--RHP	11	19	A	3.86/11/4	3.86/11/4	looking good in his debut
7	Dan Cortes--RHP	4	22	AA	2.81/21/23	4.01/36/32	his ERA last month was good but more walks than strikeouts--I'm starting to worry
8	Jeff Bianchi--SS	8	23	A+	305/342/400	313/373/443	numbers came down a bit but still hitting pretty well.
9	Dan Gutierrez--RHP	6	22	SUS	N/A	N/A	The whole dust up with the Royals was good for no one--here's hoping he's back to pitching soon
10	J. Giavotella--2B	12	21	A+	220/351/297	223/354/350	Been unlucky some, numbers should even out
11	Kelvim Herrera-RHP	13	14	A(DL)	0.00/1/0	0.00/1/0	Was hurt but will be back with Burlington any day
12	Carlos Rosa--RHP	9	24	AAA	10.43/20/11	7.36/31/14	Disappointing season so far
13	David Lough--CF	15	23	A+	342/393/430	340/402/447	This guy continues to hit--he's starting to become very interesting. DDJ 2.0?
14	Chris Nicoll--RHP	14	25	AA	3.44/16/5	2.27/29/8	Not much left to prove at AA
15	Blake Wood--RHP	10	23	AA	5.59/17/9	6.31/31/15	Very frustrating prospect
16	Tyler Sample--RHP	17	19	EXT	N/A	N/A	Should make his 2009 debut this month
17	Henry Barrera--RHP	19	23	AA	N/A	N/A	Assigned to full season club this week
18	Joe Dickerson--OF	16	22	AA	242/342/333	230/338/317	Prospect status: dropping
19	John Lamb--LHP	20	18	EXT	N/A	N/A	Very excited to see how this kid does
20	Greg Holland--RHP	23	23	AA	1.50/15/7	2.59/25/10	NW Ark bullpen better the KC Royals bullpen?
21	Disco Hayes--RHP	25	26	AA	0.00/9/4	0.53/14/6	0.00 ERA in 21 (!) relief innings this month--let's all pitch in and buy this guy a ticket to ~~Omaha,~~ KC!
22	Nick Francis--OF	33	23	A	307/365/511	310/377/544	really like to see what this kids can do at A+
23	Jordan Parraz--OF	27	24	AA	333/463/529	336/445/470	Tyler Lumsden has an ERA of almost 5 for Houston's AAA team
24	Salvador Perez--C	24	19	A	210/258/274	175/213/223	Tough to believe: May numbers were actually an improvement
25	Chris Lubanski--OF	22	24	AAA	308/357/385	308/388/462	Been hurt, can't recall what the injury was
26	Jose Bonilla--C	26	20	A	250/316/333	241/298/339	coming to life a little
27	Brian McFall--1B	30	25	AA	287/356/440	277/346/470	not sure why, but I like this guy
28	Sean McCauley--C	36	20	A	286/357/408	219/284/324	Hit pretty well in May--hopefully keeps it up--supposed to be pretty good on D.
29	Paulo Orlando--CF	31	23	A+	222/276/309	207/258/351	Paulo Orlando/Adrian Ortiz have never been seen in the same place at the same time
30	Adrian Ortiz--CF	22	28	A+	277/302/277	261/277/294	even TPJ is laughing at your ISP
31	Blaine Hardy--LHP	35	22	A	3.09/17/8	3.00/42/8	couldn't sustain April's 25/0 K/BB ratio--but still had a good month
32	Mike Lehman	NR	20	A	2.70/8/6	2.70/8/6	2008 20th pick from HS
33	Jose Duarte--CF	32	24	AAA	182/250/218	182/250/218 651 OPS @AA	becoming minor league filler at this point
34	Clint Robinson--1B	34	24	A+	250/316/420	297/350/491	...and back to earth he comes.
35	Barry Bowden--RHP	NR	24	A	1.84/19/6	2.11/26/7	2008 undrafted FA--but has pitched well so far
36	James Thompson-RHP	NR	21	A	0.59/14/8	2.92/29/16	38th round pick last year--that's all I know.
37	Nick Van Stratten-OF	NR	24	A	362/425/511	336/403/479	Good numbers but is an old man in the Midwest League
38	Sam Runion--RHP	39	21	A	5.83/13/7	7.26/20/14	Put together a few good starts before getting bombed last time out
39	Brent Fisher--LHP	38	21	A+	3.86/4/3	6.19/11/8	hurt
40	Luis Cota--RHP	37	23	A	DL	4.26/15/5	hurt

Player of the Month:

Kila Kaaihue. He's still getting on base well over 40% of the time, his power is not quite where it was last year but that is nitpicky. He'd doing a good Nick Johnson impersonation--with less of a glove but also withou the injuries. Is Kila the Rich Gannon of the Royals? I hope not. I supported the Mike Jacobs trade and he's been about what I expected. The next few weeks are a perfect time to flip him to a contender who needs a LH bat. Kaaihue is cheaper and better. But we've heard how Jacobs is an emotional leader and I'm sure you wake up in the middle of the night in a cold sweat like I do having just dreamt that DM flipped Kaaihue for a poor hitting SS.

I almost went with Hosmer, but I think I'll have other opportunities to pick him.

Minor League Recap: 2008 Omaha Royals

marbotty — Sat, 02 May 2009 12:36:02 -0000

It must be fun to be a baseball fan in a town that houses a AAA affiliate. Not only do you get to enjoy the highest quality baseball outside of the majors (or Japan), you also get to watch a wide array of players take the field.

For example, had you picked a random Omaha Royals game to watch last season, you would have had the pleasure of seeing a hodgepodge of different players: rising stars like Mike Aviles, Billy Butler, and Kila Kaaihuie, retreads like Gookie Dawkins and Angel Berroa, AAAA tweener-types like Shane Costa and Damon Hollins, and a bunch of guys like Ryan Shealy and Brayan Pena, who don't really belong in the minors but who also don't have a roster spot open for them on the parent club.

On top of that, you get awesome promotions that are usually too risque or too bizarre to be considered acceptable at the major league level. Take this year's bobblehead promotion.

If you go watch a game on bobblehead night in Kauffman, you'd expect to receive either a current player or a former allstar like George Brett or Amos Otis. In Omaha? Warren Mother Flipping Buffett. Why? Because the guy could rake, that's why.

Career OPS: .931

Or how about this other promotion. Ever heard of Todd Balduf? I hadn't, but if you look at the Omaha Royals stat sheet from last year, you'll see he logged exactly one game and only one at bat. What was the point? I'm guessing it was "Moonlight Graham" night at Omaha Stadium, and one lucky fan got picked from the stands to get a minor league at bat. At least, that's what should have happened, and if this promotion ever gets greenlighted, I want credit for it.

2008 TEAM RECAP

The O Royals went a disappointing 63-81, which was the 3rd lowest win total among the 16 teams in the Pacific League. On the plus side, nobody gives a squirt.

TOP 5 HITTING PERFORMANCES

1. Kila Kaihuee, 1B
114 At Bats, 11 HRs, .316/.439/.640, 24BB, 26K

Kila was sort of the minor league equivalent of Manny Ramirez in that he ended up being the best hitter on two different teams. Of course, in Kila's case, the two teams were NW Arkansas and Omaha, so he didn't get quite as much press on the subject as Manny.

Even though he had a higher walk rate than anyone on the team and averaged one homerun per 10 at bats, (which was actually better than Manny), Kila didn't get the call to the majors until the very tail end of the 2008 season. You would have thought Dayton would have been more inclined to call him up sooner considering:

1. An ineffective Ross Gload was manning 1B, and
2. Aviles had a monster season once he was called up to replace an equally ineffective Tony Pena, Jr.

But this was Ross Mother Flipping Gload we were talking about, so I can understand Moore's reluctance. Let's also not lose sight of the fact that there's nothing about Kíla's name that would either imply or rhyme with an explosion, so there's no way he could have been as big of a fan favorite as Ross. (Wait, what about a "Kila-ton" bomb? Oh, well.)

2. Mike Aviles, 2B/SS
214 At Bats, 10 HRs, .336/.370/.631, 11BB, 26K

If you were unfamiliar with the Royals and were just looking at this year's stats, you might wonder what the big deal is about Mike Aviles. In fact, you might think he sucks.

But last year was a different story, and Aviles was arguably our best player last season. Of course, his story began in Omaha, where, like Kila, he manhandled Pacific League pitching. While Aviles only hit homeruns at half the rate that Kila did, his slugging percentage was nearly identical, thanks in big part to a higher batting average and a much higher doubles rate.

Where he lagged behind Kila the most was in his ability to draw walks, only garnering one every five games or so. Critics/cynics who believed Mike's success was unsustainable pointed first at this low walk rate as evidence of a future decline. So far, those concerns have had merit, as Aviles has been terrible.

But we'll always love Aviles for 2008. And eventually, that love will turn to annoyance, then disdain, and then sheer, gutwrenching hatred... much like it did with Berroa in the years following his rookie of the year season. Speaking of which...

3. Angel Berroa, SS
189 At Bats, 10 HRs, .291/.323/.519, 8BB, 25K

Didn't see that coming did you?

Okay, I'm cheating a bit here, as either Butler or Shealy should be in this spot. But that would have ruined my cool Aviles-Berroa segue, and I just couldn't have that.

The other thing is that there's a sentimentality factor in play here -- nobody expected Berroa to ever perform well again, and that sort of underdog-ness made me root for him more than I normally would for another player. (Am I glad he's with another team? Yes. I'm not crazy.)

So while his raw stats don't compare to Butler and Shealy's, the fact that he performed well despite the fact that nobody believed in him, or even really liked him, and the fact that it helped with my literary transition, Berroa gets the nod at #3. Also, it gives me an excuse to post this photo:

Either the Dodgers appreciate Angel as much as we do, or this was the most poorly-conceived Budweiser ad ever. (via www.pe.com)

4. Billy Butler, 1B
101 At Bats, 5 HRs, .337/.417/.564, 14BB, 7K

Hey! It's Billy Butler! No big surprise here, and nothing really exciting to write about that nobody hasn't written before. (How's that for a triple negative?)

5. Ryan Shealy, 1B
400 At Bats, 22 HRs, .283/.376/.503, 55BB, 93K

It's sort of mind boggling that Shealy still doesn't have a spot on the 25 man roster, considering the success he had for half a season in the pros and two years in the minors, and considering what was at the time a rather large bounty required to bring him over. It's also mind boggling because other guys that Dayton brought in via trade all got more of an extended shot than Ryan (Pena, Gathright, Gload), despite all having a worse pedigree and requiring less in the trade. Sure, he sucked in 2007, but so did those guys, and they all got to keep playing.

I have an irrational man crush on Mike Jacobs, but I would have been perfectly happy to let Shealy man the 1B/DH position in 2009. Having Nunez in the fold might have also spared us the pain of acquiring Kyle Farnsworth, and maybe that extra $4 million spent on Jacobs could have spent on something to spare us the pain of Sidney Ponson. But there's no point dwelling on this now. The only real question is which of Shealy or Kaiihue gets traded first.

Other Notables: Todd Balduf

TOP 5 PITCHING PERFORMANCES

1. Joel Peralta
18.2 IP, 0 GS, 0.00 ERA, 19K, 6BB

Sure, he was tater-ific while pitching in KC last season, but he was downright nasty as a reliever in Omaha. A 3:1 strikeout to walk ratio, over a strikeout an inning, and not a single runner allowed in 18 innings qualifies as a success at any level. His struggles in KC last year was a bit perplexing, as he hadn't ever shown before such a high propensity for giving up dingers, either at the minor or major league level. Let's hope he can get his career back on track, as he was a solid pitcher prior to last season's meltdown.

2. Jorge De La Rosa
22 IP, 4 GS, 1.64 ERA, 23K, 7BB

Here's another name you probably didn't expect to see on this list, but really, it's pretty typical of his career. In what must be maddening for GMs, Jorge shows flashes of brilliance, only to eventually turn into a pumpkin once given enough exposure to ML hitting.

Colorado's giving him a starting role again this season, and I'm sure he'll last another month in the pros before eventually getting demoted, traded, or waived, only to be picked up by another team in search of a reclamation project. But next time it will work!

3. Carlos Rosa
50.2 IP, 11GS, 4.09 ERA, 44K, 12BB

I still don't understand why Rosa isn't considered the better prospect of him and Dan Cortes. Of course, I'm not looking at this from a scouting standpoint, and yes, Cortes has the advantage (or disadvantage) of being younger. But from a purely statistical perspective, Rosa has easily bested Cortes in pure performance each year they've been in the system.

Rosa had one of the best K:BB ratios on the squad, and while his ERA wasn't that impressive, he did do a good job of limiting baserunners and avoiding homeruns. He's back in Omaha again this year, and thus far he's dominating, with a 3.27 ERA, 11 K's against 3 BBs in only 11 innings pitched. Cortes, meanwhile, is sporting a 6.23 ERA, and 1.73 WHIP, although his peripherals suggest he's pitched much better than those numbers suggest.

4. and 5. Kyle Davies/Devon Lowery
57.2 IP, 11 GS, 2.03 ERA, 38K, 21BB (Davies)
59.1 IP, 0 GS, 2.12 ERA, 43K, 30BB (Lowery)

Davies gets a slight nod over Lowery -- their numbers were very similar -- due to the fact that he was starting and due to a better walk rate. But their other numbers, hits, homeruns, innings pitched, strikeouts, and runs allowed were almost identical. If Lowery had put up these numbers as a starter maybe we would have found our replacement for Ponson in the rotation. (It should be noted here that Jeff Fulchino actually had superior K/9, BB/9, and HR/9 than both Lowery and Davies, but he also gave up twice as many runs).

Other Notables: Luke Hochevar, Greg Atencio, Jeff Fulchino

Minor League Recap: 2008 NW Arkansas Naturals

marbotty — Fri, 10 Apr 2009 14:45:39 -0000

2008 must have been a bittersweet year for Kansas-based fans of minor league baseball. On the one hand, the Royals organization saw spectacular performances from many of our young hitters and pitchers, and some clubs even managed to bring home an elusive division championship.

On the other hand, 2008 marked the departure of the AA affiliate from Wichita, as GM Dayton Moore relocated the team to Springdale, Arkansas, citing poor attendance and antiquated facilities as the reason behind the move. It made sense from a business perspective - relocation would bring in a new fan base and expose the Royals to new geographical region, as well as allow the players to play in a brand new ballpark designed by the KC-based firm responsible for gems like Camden Yards and Progressive Field. It also didn’t hurt that owner David Glass lives close by. Still, the loss of the team must have stung dearly for the 1,000 or so diehard fans who managed to show up to each game.

Those fans may have felt vindicated a bit by what happened next, as subsequent decisions related to the creation of the new team incited confusion and stirred up more than a little controversy.

First was the non-traditional nomenclature -- rather than calling the team the "Springdale Naturals," ownership opted for the more opaque "Northwest Arkansas Naturals", in what was most likely a cynical attempt at trying to lure in unsuspecting fans of early 90’s rap. (Straight outta Springdale!)

Second, and more damning, was the choice of the team mascot, "Strike." A Bigfoot/Caveman/Hillbilly hybrid, the new mascot immediately became one of the scariest in the minor leagues, famous for its taste for human flesh.

RIP Elaine Delphy (1956-2008) Cause of Death: between-inning "entertainment"

On the field, the 2008 Naturals performed valiantly -- winning 75 games while amassing 64 losses. As with every Kansas City minor league team last year, the Naturals pitching was responsible for their success, as they posted the second lowest team ERA (4.15) in the league.

Also, as with every Kansas City minor league team last year, their hitting sucked -- they were second to last in runs scored, outpacing only the Arkansas Travelers. (Arkansas Travelers? Suddenly the move to Arkansas makes no sense at all.) Aside from a few luminaries, the Naturals were every bit as anemic at the plate as the rest of their Royals affiliate brethren.

TOP 5 HITTING PERFORMANCES

1. Kila Ka’ahuie, 1B
287 At Bats, 26 HRs, .314/.463/.624, 80BB, 41K

Hawaiian Punch, Kila Monster, That Hawaiian Guy… whatever you call him, the guy can rake. Kila’s performance last season didn’t just lead the Naturals, it was among the best in all of minor league baseball. The .463 OBP was about 40 to 50 points higher than any other hitter in the minors, and was second to only Chipper Jones (.470) in all of baseball. He actually walked twice as often as he struck out last season, which was outstanding.

It wasn’t just about plate discipline either -- Kila hit for power, as well, as he led the team in homeruns and slugging. There really aren’t enough superlatives available to describe his season. He was naturally rewarded for his big year by getting the opportunity to repeat it again in AAA Omaha.

2. Juan Richardson, 1B
494 At Bats, 16 HRs, .296/.370/.474, 54BB, 93K

Hey, did you know there was another 1B that played for NW Arkansas last year? Me, neither. Kila’s monstrous year overshadowed Juan’s strong performance, but he still managed to lead the team in one category -- doubles, of which he hit 36. He was also rewarded for his success with his second straight Texas League All Star game appearance. Unfortunately, due to his age (28), his prospectdom is virtually nil. Factor in that he’s originally from the Dominican Republic, there’s a chance he’s actually about ready to start collecting social security payments.

3. Irving Falu, RF
362 At Bats, 5 HRs, .301/.367/.384, 38BB, 31K

Falu really only did a couple of things well last year, but he did them very well. He hit for average, cracking the Texas League top 10 in that category with a .301 avg, and he showed off a pretty good eye, with 38 BB’s against just 31 K’s. Had Kila not crushed him in that category, it probably would have seemed a lot more impressive.

Falu didn’t hit for much power and didn’t display much speed, as his .378 SLG and 9 CS (against 11 SB) demonstrate, so feel free to contest this ranking. Falu will continue to see time in the outfield at 2B in 2009 with the Naturals.

4. Cory Aldridge, DH
167 At Bats, 10 HRs, .269/.361/.497, 25BB, 37K

Cory hit homeruns at almost a good a clip as Kila, with 10 in just 167 at bats. He was also a Texas League All-Star… in 2005, which says a lot about whether or not we’ll be seeing him in the majors any time soon. He’ll turn 30 this season, so 2009 may end up being his swan song. He was promoted to Omaha, at least, so barring any trades and assuming injuries to Jacobs, Butler, Shealy, Kila, and likely Guillen, Costa, and Maier, you may get to see him playing in Kansas City this summer.

5. Brian McFall, 1B/OF
348 At Bats, 18 HRs, .241/.329/.454, 39BB, 103K

McFall’s one of those guys who performs well enough to get promoted but never quite well enough to generate serious buzz about him, and his season last year was no different. It was pretty good, but not great, as he hit a fair number of doubles and homeruns, and walked at a decent rate. He didn’t hit well for average, which depressed his overall rate stats.

The future’s a bit murky for Brian. He’s stuck with Shealy and Kila ahead of him in Omaha, and Jacobs and Butler up in KC, so advancement looks unlikely. He’s always hit for pretty good power, and there were several people before the season started last year who viewed him as good as or better a prospect than Kila, so there’s a chance something could click for him. Odds are that his chance will come with another organization, if at all.

TOP 5 PITCHING PERFORMANCES

1. Carlos Rosa
45 IP, 8 GS, 1.20 ERA, 42 K, 7 BB

Rosa may have had a bit harder time in Omaha, but he dominated Texas League hitters last year -- with just under a strikeout an inning over 8 starts. While Dan Cortes in considered the better pitching prospect, Carlos has done a good job of outperforming him thus far in their short careers. Carlos also had a nifty stint in the majors, when he struck out 3 in 3 innings, with 0 walks and just one run.

2. Tim Hamulack
23 IP, 0 GS, 1.96 ERA, 23 K, 1 BB

Hamulack quietly put together a great year for NWA in 2008, so quietly that I didn’t even know he existed until his name started popping up last month in spring training exhibition games. His K/9 was one of the best on the team, and his 23:1 strikeout to walk ratio must have made fellow teammate Rowdy Hardy feel nostalgic for his early part of his career.

3. Chris Hayes
65.2 IP, 0 GS, 1.64 ERA, 39 K, 13 BB

As a submariner, Hayes evokes memories of Royals great Dan Quisenberry. As a brainy sabermetric-friendly blogger, Hayes calls to mind (now) fellow minor leaguer Brian Bannister. He didn't strike out too many batters this season (he had a low 5.3 K/9), but he made up for it by minimizing the number of walks and homeruns allowed. He's the kind of pitcher you root for, and because of his unorthodox style, he's the kind of pitcher who you won't be surprised to see gracing the Powder Blues in a couple of years.

4. Chris Nicoll
43.2 IP, 1 GS, 3.09 ERA, 55 K, 8 BB

Nicoll was once considered one of the top Royals pitching prospects, having started off his career with strong seasons at Idaho Falls and Burlington in the rotation. Unfortunately, he got absolutely shelled in 2007 at Wilmington, and it wasn't just cosmetic, as he declined in all of his peripheral stats. An injured quadriceps may have contributed to his fall.

Nicoll was converted into a reliever after his fateful season, and seems to have gotten things back on track. He sported the top K/9 for the Naturals this season (11.3), while being very stingy with the walks, as well.

5. Dusty Hughes
52.2 IP, 4 GS, 2.91 ERA, 43 K, 16 BB

It could have been Jarod Plummer or Daniel Cortes in this spot, had the latter cut down on his walks and had the former cut down on his homeruns allowed. Hughes is another guy like Nicoll that was considered one of the better minor league pitchers for the Royals, until Moore took over from Baird and injected the system with a slew of young talent.

Hughes also spent some time in Omaha last year, but failed to match his success in Springdale. He'll get a chance again in 2009 to see if his promotion was warranted.

TotalZone on First Base Prospects

erik — Sat, 04 Apr 2009 14:45:36 -0000

More photos » by Jeff Chiu - AP

Travis Ishikawa gives thanks for the ability to pick it at first base.

Browse more photos »

Rally and Sackmann have given us TotalZone stats for minor leaguers, which can be found at position players' pages at Minor League Splits. Sackmann provided the data, Rally created TotalZone, which he has long used with major league players. To find out more about these stats and how they translate to the majors, I'll refer you here.

Here are the positions we've looked at so far:

SS | CF | 2B | 3B

We'll look at the top first base prospects now before finishing off with corner outfielders. Remember, as with any fielding metric, the usual caveats apply.

	Org.	Age	Level	Outs	Chances	Runs	Runs/150
Lars Anderson	BOS	20	A+	102	15	-2	-3
Logan Morrison	FL	20	A+	124	191	-4	-5
Angel Villalona	SFG	17	A	121	180	2	3
Kyle Blanks	SDP	21	AA	128	175	8	11
Freddie Freeman	ATL	18	A	124	198	-3	-4
Gaby Sanchez	FL	24	AA	86	117	5	11
Kila Ka'aihue	KC	24	AA	59	98	-5	-13
Travis Ishikawa	SFG	24	AA	68	91	5	14
Brandon Allen	CHW	22	A+	108	148	7	12
Beau Mills	CLE	21	A+	90	139	-2	-4
Chris Marrero	WAS	19	A+	74	109	1	2
Nick Evans	NYM	22	AA	70	98	5	13
Mike Carp	SEA	22	AA	69	95	4	11

Lars Anderson was -4 at two levels last year and -18 the previous. There were concerns about his defense when he was drafted, but the scouting reports say he drastically improved, and TZ agrees.
Same story for Logan Morrison; he improved upon a -11 last season.
Angel Villalona rates out as pretty neutral. Scouts like his hands and agility, yet at the same time they give the big fella a 0% chance of returning to third base.
Kyle Blanks is a massive human being, but he's shown some surprising fielding ability and the Padres believe he could possibly handle a corner outfield position. That may be a little wishful thinking on their part, but you can't blame them for wanting to get his bat into the lineup.
Gaby Sanchez was the favorite to win the Marlin's first baseman gig, but he missed most of spring training after a collision with Lasting Milledge and struggled after coming back. Sanchez will go down to AAA, while the Marlins moved Cantu over to first and will start the light-hitting Emilio Bonaficio at third. Not only was Sanchez solid at first last season, he was also +8 runs at third.
Salt in the wound -- Mike Jacobs was a -18 defender in TZ last year. -18! Kila Ka'ailhue may stink at 1B, but he can't do any worse than Jacobs. For Ka'ailhue's career ('05-'08) he's +8.
Travis Ishikawa came out of nowhere last year, not only on offense but also with the glove. Counting AAA, he was worth 13 runs. For now it looks like he will be the Giants' every day first baseman.
Scouts say Nick Evans needs to work on defense, but through '05-'08 he has been worth +22 runs.

2009 Fantasy Baseball Sleepers

faketeams — Fri, 27 Mar 2009 14:15:07 -0000

1B Kila Ka'aihue, Kansas City Royals: Yeah, he was sent down, but his power/walk combination is exactly what the Royals need. The question is whether an injury or ineffectiveness afflict Mike Jacobs or Billy Butler to open an opportunity.

RP Troy Percival, Tampa Bay Rays: Raise your hand if you're taking Dan Wheeler before Troy Percival? Does anyone believe Rays' manager Joe Maddon when he says Percival remains the closer? I don't but, as long as Percy is healthy, he is going to get Saves. As long as you don't pay more than half-rpice for those Saves, you'll be fine.

OF Cody Ross, Florida Marlins: With the anticipation of a 15/40 season from Cameron Maybin and the enduring disappointment of Jeremy Hermida, Cody Ross' 22 HRs in 461 ABs is forgotten. With a full time outfield job, Ross could hit 30. With 6 SBs in 7 attempts last season, there is a chance for 10 of those too.

MM Ronny Cedeno, Seattle Mariners: In very deep single league formats, the back-up middle infielder is often selected to fill a middle infield spot. For that reason, I tend to list them for every team in my pre-draft preparation.

I struggled with the Mariners as Yuni Betancourt and Jose Lopez appear locked into playing every single day. However, the M's acquired former Cubs' SS Ronny Cedeno in the Aaron Heilman trade. It wasn't too long ago that Cedeno was considered a quality sleeper.

RP Jason Motte, St. Louis Cardinals: Everyone knows about the strikeout reliever. However, I am rolling the dice that he gets the Cardinals' job and brings back Rotisseire visions of Eric Gagne - shutdown closer with 90+ ks. Since he is not being taken with the elite closers, there is considerable value to be realized.

Better Know a White Sox Division Rival: Kansas City Royals

larry — Sun, 15 Mar 2009 12:00:12 -0000

This is the first in a series about AL Central rivals and the race to be the tallest midget.

Offseason Comings and Goings

KC has been roundly ridiculed for their moves this offseason. The trade for Mike Jacobs drew perhaps the most strident criticism but the signing of Kyle Farnsworth to, ahem, bolster the bullpen and giving guaranteed money to Horacio Ramirez and Willie Bloomquist to do, I don’t know, whatever also caused consternation amongst the Royals faithful. For those of you scoring at home, that’s about $11M pissed away on what is effectively replacement level talent across the board.

I would be remiss, though, if I just criticized all of Dayton Moore’s moves. While I understand the argument some advance about acquisitions like Coco Crisp and Juan Cruz (why is a team like the Royals making what are probably marginal upgrades?), on the other hand, after a look around the division, I don’t think there’s any team that can’t legitimately think that a few breaks their way could mean contention. The problem is that the moves I outlined in the first paragraph are incongruent with the moves I’m discussing in this one.

Mark Grudzielanek is probably the only departure worth mentioning. Bobby Jenks’ nemesis Joey Gathright is gone, too, but his production was so horrid that he should be. They sent reliever Ramon Ramirez to Boston to get his replacement.

Offense

A Projected Lineup: Coco Crisp CF, Mike Aviles SS, David DeJesus LF, Jose Guillen RF, Mike Jacobs 1B, Billy Butler DH, Alex Gordon 3B, Alberto Callaspo 2B, Miguel Olivo C.

Bench and Spare Parts: Mark Teahen (UT), Willie Bloomquist (UT), John Buck (C), Ross Gload (1B), Ryan Shealy (1B), Tony Pena Jr. (UT), Luis Hernandez (UT), Shane Costa (OF).

Doesn’t take a genius to see this isn’t that good of an offense. They lacked both OBP and SLG last year and not all that much has changed, especially on the OBP front. But there are some positives. People are probably sick of hearing about how Butler and Gordon are going to breakout. Well, Butler is still just 23 and Gordon is 25. They still have significant upside potential. Aviles and his ridiculous BABIP are going to come back to earth but he’s still a solid SS. Callaspo is a good defender, a legit .300 hitter and draws enough walks to make his lack of power quite acceptable; however, he's having a poor spring and Bloomquist may be winning the second base job. Guillen and Jacobs are going to be drags on production, especially on the OBP front. Teahen, for better or worse, is going to get significant playing time all around the diamond. The problem is that they've got a bunch of adequate to bad offensive players. Gordon and Butler have a chance to change that but even sizeable breakouts from both probably wouldn't be enough to get this offense to respectability.

Pitching

Rotation: Gil Meche, Zack Greinke, Luke Hochevar, Kyle Davies, Brian Bannister.

Bullpen and Spare Parts: Joakim Soria, Kyle Farnsworth, Juan Cruz, Ron Mahay, Jimmy Gobble, Horacio Ramirez, Robinson Tejada, Brandon Duckworth, Carlos Rosa, John Bale, Bruce Chen, Doug Waechter, Joel Peralta.

The one-two punch of Meche and Greinke is about as good as any as you’ll find in the division – and some will argue is the best. After that, Hochevar and Davies are entering their age 25 season and may be primed for a breakout into solid mid-rotation types. Brian Bannister, while earning accolades from seamheads for his heady approach to pitching, really isn’t that good – which is why he needs to take a heady approach. Top to bottom, they’re a solid rotation with some significant upside potential. Just like with most non-Red Sox teams, things get shaky in the spot start area with guys like Ramirez and Duckworth being Masset-ish.

The bullpen has at the end of it one of the best closers in the game in Soria. Cruz is a superb set-up man as he is a strikeout artist while limiting the home run. Mahay and Bale are solid lefty options, though the timing of Bale's return from thyroid surgery is uncertain. Relief should be a strength for the Royals.

Farm

Most of the Royals’ farm talent is a few years away from the big leagues. However, there are a couple guys who could provide reinforcements during the season that make a difference.

Kila Ka’aihue: One of the reasons the Mike Jacobs acquisition was so puzzling was that the Royals have a bunch of guys who could play 1B as good or better. While Kila would have been a stretch to make the team out of Spring Training, he shouldn’t need much more time. He had a break-out season in 2008 and most believe it to be a legit jump to a new performance level. He provides plus power and plate discipline but, like many "1Bs", lacks a glove or much speed.

Daniel Cortes: Had a good year at AA and should start the year at, or move up quickly to, AAA. The 22 year old likely needs a full year at Omaha to continue to develop his repertoire – his low to mid 90s fastball and curve are both good, but his change requires more work –but, if there is a rotation need midseason, he may be a better option than the replacement level schlock that will be hanging around the KC bullpen and upper minors.

Outlook:

The shortest of the midgets but with growth potential.

Can the Royals win the AL Central?

Peter Bendix — Mon, 29 Dec 2008 20:50:53 -0000

In this space, I have been quite critical of the Royals this offseason – from the Coco Crisp trade to the Mike Jacobs deal to the Kyle Farnsworth signing, I disagreed with the direction that the team was heading. In short, I believed that the Royals were being short-sighted, and making moves designed to aspire to mediocrity, rather than long-term success.

I more or less still believe this to be true: it’s not that moves such as the Coco Crisp trade were bad in a vacuum, but they represented only short-term marginal upgrades, not enough to get the Royals into contention in a year or two, and not enough to give them long-term hope of contending.

That being said, I want to examine the question: can the Royals win the AL Central in 2009?

This idea is not a preposterous as it may first seem. The Central was relatively weak in 2008 and is poised to be underwhelming again in 2009. Last year, the White Sox won the division and also had the most third-order wins of any team in the division, posting a third-order record of 88-75. The Royals finished last, with a respectable third-order record of 76-86. The 12 game difference between the first place and last place teams was by far the smallest difference of all of the divisions in baseball. Furthermore, the division looks like it will be tightly bunched again in 2009: there are no teams that stand out as being awful, and there are no teams that could claim to be elite, either.

In 2008, the Royals were poor at run prevention, but not awful. Although their 4.48 team ERA ranked 22nd in baseball, they weren’t far off from the 16th place team, which had a 4.36 ERA. The Royals actually had the 12th best Park Adjusted Defensive Efficiency in baseball, despite running David DeJesus and Joey Gathright out in center field; replacing them with Coco Crisp should help their defense considerably.

Furthermore, the Royals were 25th in runs scored, thanks in large part to a pathetic .320 team OBP, tied for fourth-worst in baseball. Ironically, the Royals publically stated their need for more OBP and traded for Mike Jacobs (and his .299 OBP) soon afterwards. However, even though Jacobs is probably not going to top a .320 OBP next year, he will likely be an improvement over Ross Gload, who hit .273/.317/.348 in 388 at bats at first base last year. If the Royals turn to young slugger Kila Ka’aihue, who posted an MLE of .243/.392/.443 last year, they could see further production from their first base position.

Billy Butler is also a good bet for improvement, as the 22-year-old hit .275/.324/.400 last year but is probably better than that (his minor league track record is immaculate, and after being recalled from the minors on June 28 Butler hit .284/.320/.444 over the rest of the season this year).

Mike Aviles is very likely to decline, but could remain a solid shortstop, and even a decline from Aviles should make the Royals be awfully glad that they got rid of Tony Pena Jr., who hit an incredibly bad .169/.189/.209 last year (I don’t know what’s more amazing – that Pena was that bad, or that Pena received 225 at bats despite being that bad).

As my colleague David Golebiewski wrote over at RotoGraphs, Alex Gordon is also a good bet to improve in 2009. Additionally, after being the beneficiary of some good luck in 2007, Brian Bannister was afflicted with some bad luck in 2008; Bannister’s 5.56 tRA* doesn’t exactly inspire visions of grandeur in his future, but suggests that Bannister may be able to improve upon his abysmal 5.76 ERA.

Additionally, Luke Hochevar may be better than his 2008 indicated as well: although Hochevar posted a 5.01 ERA, it was accompanied by a 4.98 tRA* (which translates to an ERA of around 4.58). Again, not amazing, but better than 2008.

Finally, the Royals will benefit from playing in the AL Central. None of their competitors is likely to be among the league’s elite, as each has significant question marks about their team. It’s very possible that the 87-88 wins could win the division. If you assume that the Royals are somewhere around a 78-win team right now, it only takes one or two surprise performances and/or a little luck to get that number up to 87 wins.

The key to the Royals having a legitimate chance of contending in 2009 is threefold: they need their players to perform well (and need something somewhat unexpected to happen, like Billy Butler breaking out); they need to outplay their Pythagorean record (although probably not by that much), and they need other teams in the division to perform relatively poorly (in other words, they need everyone to be under 90 wins). While each of these elements is unlikely, it’s not altogether unreasonable that the Royals could contend for the division in 2009.

Blogging with the Enemy: An Exit Interview with Sam Mellinger

Ian Casselberry — Wed, 24 Sep 2008 15:10:14 -0000

We began the season by interviewing the Kansas City Star's Sam Mellinger (the intro to which contained a quote that shall never again be uttered, one that Zappatista rightfully called me out on immediately, so with the Tigers and Royals facing each other for the final time this season, it seemed timely to bring things full circle.

On rather short notice, Sam agreed to swap questions and answers via e-mail. (You can read my answers to his questions at Ball Star.) Thanks again to him for giving BYB the time. Topics include preseason predictions, surprises and disappointments, and a certain thrilling victory that I'm sure will be part of Mellinger family lore for decades to come. We'll make you laugh, we'll make you cry, and maybe - just maybe - we'll make you think a little bit, too.

Bless You Boys: Okay, let's start off with some humble pie. You saw this thing with the Tigers coming, while I had my Tiger-striped blinders on. The inconsistency of Jeremy Bonderman, the failing health of Kenny Rogers, the utter suckitude of Dontrelle Willis. You told me so. But seriously, you still thought they'd finish ahead of the Royals, right?

Sam Mellinger: Definitely. And you're also kind to ignore the fact that I thought the Indians would win the division. There are a million things to love about baseball, and your website is probably the wrong forum to write this, but one of them is that the second-highest payroll in baseball can be out of it by June.

Also, you know, it could be worse. You could be a Mariners fan.

BYB: Which Royal was the biggest surprise for you this season, either on the pleasant or disappointing side?

SM: I have to pick just one? Mike Aviles has been the biggest pleasant surprise, and I'm not sure this can be argued. He was the player of the year at Class AAA Omaha last year, but that's only because the club was releasing Craig Brazell (who led all of the minors in homers) and didn't want to give it to him.

Aviles was picked out of a D3 school in the seventh round, only because the then incredibly-cheap Royals could sign him for $1,000. He was promoted to the big leagues only because he was raking in Omaha, and also because Tony Pena Jr., Alberto Callaspo, and Esteban German all failed at shortstop and the Royals had no other options. Trey Hillman has tried to go revisionist and take some credit for Aviles' success, but the truth is Hillman called him "an extra body" when Aviles was promoted, and then after Aviles went hitless in his debut, Hillman dismissed him in his postgame comments and sat him on the bench for another week before each of the other "shortstops" proved again they couldn't do it.

I'm probably being unfair to Hillman here, because he was in good company in not thinking Aviles could play an adequate shortstop (defensive metrics actually say he's been one of the best in MLB) and hit .319 with a 111 OPS+. Also, Kila Ka'aihue is a name you might keep in the back of your mind. He was close to being out of baseball before putting up an absolutely absurd statline in the minor leagues this year (look it up if you want, he was the Texas League POY) and OPS-ing his way into the club's future plans.

For disappointing, it'd be easy to point to Pena, who accomplished the improbable task of having Royals fans wonder if they were better off with Angel Berroa. You could also tab Hillman, who has, by many accounts, lost the clubhouse and made lots and lots of strategic errors, both big picture and small. Also, Brian Bannister has been almost exactly as bad as the statheads said he'd be, and neither Alex Gordon or Billy Butler made nearly as much progress as the organization hoped.

BYB: It sure sounds like Jeff Francoeur is on his way to Kansas City during the off-season? What do you make of that move?

SM: It could happen, but I think it'd be jumping the gun to say it WILL happen. It makes sense for a number of reasons, starting with the fact that Dayton Moore came from Atlanta and ever since his arrival here the Royals have taken on an undeniable Braves tint, from front office hires to trades and the way the minor league system is run. I know Dayton thinks the world of Francoeur, even after what's shaping up as a disastrous season for him. He'd be in good company in Kansas City as a guy who doesn't take walks, and the Royals could definitely use an outfielder with some pop, so it's certainly possible. Like all things, I suppose, it would depend on what the Royals had to give up, especially since their minor league system is still pretty thin at the top.

BYB: Is there a deal you definitely see the Royals making during the winter, or did I already answer that with my previous question?

SM: They need a middle infielder. Absolutely need one, and, continuing with the former Braves theme, Rafael Furcal is a name that always seems to pop up. If it's a SS, Aviles moves to 2B, where he's probably a better fit. They also will be looking for a catcher, a corner outfielder with power, and another starting pitcher. It's a long list, and Dayton's promised big changes, so it should be an interesting offseason.

BYB: You've seen that new giant HD screen in Kauffman Stadium with your own eyes. (Its magnificence exposes Comerica Park's scoreboard for the inferiority it is.) Tell me, Sam, if you stare at it long enough, can you actually see into the future?

SM: I actually played Wii home run derby on that board, and it was everything I thought it would be. There was a bit of a delay, but nothing you can't get used to. It was supposed to be something for our website, but the player I had who agreed to it, well, it was just bad timing.

BYB: Finally, on a personal note, how has winning the Hot Dog Derby last month changed your life? Do the players in the Royals' clubhouse treat you with more respect? Do you have to pay for a meal in Kansas City anymore? Is Jeff Passan regularly washing your car?

SM: Hold on a second. I gotta yell at Passan real quick. I can't believe he forgot to take the yellow Skittles out of this bowl before bringing it down.

(long pause, angry yelling in the background)

OK, where was I? Oh, yeah, the hot dog race. You know, I really am just a humble guy, thankful to the good Lord (or the Royals' entertainment folks, whichever is more appropriate) for allowing me the opportunity to dress as a giant mixed meat product and embarass myself in front of thousands.

There's actually a little controversy here. Midway through the race, my shoes "fell off," and that's when I made my move. Passan finished about a dozen bun-lengths behind, so my KC Star colleague David Boyce finished second and is protesting, but with the home schedule over, I think they'll just have to be sore losers for eternity.

By the way, you wouldn't believe how bad the insides of those hot dog suits stink. Well, maybe you would. But they do NOT get them dry cleaned regularly.