SB Nation - Jaime Garcia

St. Louis Cardinals Top 20 Prospects for 2010

John Sickels — Sun, 13 Dec 2009 04:15:49 -0000

Blake Hawksworth, official winner of the 2009 Coolest Name In Major League Baseball Contest (AP Photo/Tom Gannam)

St. Louis Cardinals Top 20 Prospects for 2010.

All grades are EXTREMELY PRELIMINARY and subject to change. Don't get too worried about exact rankings at this point, especially once you get beyond the Top 10. Grade C+/C guys are pretty interchangeable depending on what you want to emphasize. Complete reports on these and over 1,000 other players will be in the 2010 Baseball Prospect Book, now available for pre-order, shipping on February 2^nd!

1) Shelby Miller, RHP, Grade B: I love the ceiling, but we need to see how he adapts to pro ball, if he can stay healthy, etc. etc.

2) Jaime Garcia, LHP, Grade B-; I like him and the Tommy John recovery looks like it went well, but I hope they let him build up his stamina rather than pushing him too quickly.

3) Lance Lynn, RHP, Grade B-: Projects as an inning-eater number three starter type. K/BB in the Texas League wasn't great, could use some Triple-A time.

4) Robert Stock, C, Grade B-: I preferred him as a pitcher in college, but letting him hit makes sense: if he makes it, you have a power-hitting catcher with good defense. If he doesn't hit, you just move him back to the mound. Could be one of the best catching prospects in the game by July.

5) Daryl Jones, OF, Grade B-: I keep expecting power to develop but there's no sign of it. Cutting him some slack on '09 numbers due to injuries.

6) Eduardo Sanchez, RHP, Grade B-: Underrated power arm needs more attention, could be a major league closer if command sharpens a bit more.

7) Allen Craig, OF, Grade B-: I really like the bat, just needs to play.

8) David Freese, 3B, Grade C+: Almost a B-, injury was badly timed, turns 27 in April, looks like a .270 hitter with 20 homer power, solid glove.

9) Jon Jay, OF, Grade C+: I just like the guy. Always seems to rip the ball when I see him. I'd love to have him as a fourth outfielder.

10) Joe Kelly, RHP, Grade C+: Nasty power sinking stuff, college results didn't match arm, this could/should change in pro ball but he was erratic in the NY-P, too, so maybe it won't.

11) Dan Descalso, 2B, Grade C+: He was great in the Texas League but went back to being mediocre after promotion.

12) Tyler Henley, OF, Grade C+. Similar to Jay....perhaps a bit more pop but a bit less speed, another guy who could be very good as a fourth outfielder.

13) Blake Hawksworth, RHP, Grade C: Deserves credit fighting back from injury. Can be a nice middle reliever.

14) Tyler Greene, SS, Grade C: Lots of speed, some power, good tools, still held back by spotty plate discipline. Could hit .280 with 20 homers some year, then .180 the next year.

15) Steven Hill, C-1B, Grade C: Remember Todd Greene? The short guy with tons of power who could play outfield, first base, catch a bit, but who couldn't draw walks? This is his clone.

16) Pete Kozma, SS, Grade C: If he'd gone to Wichita State, this would be his junior season. Too young to write off just yet.

17) Francisco Samuel, RHP, Grade C: Blistering stuff, with no idea where it's going.

18) Scott Bittle, RHP, Grade C: He could move through the system very quickly, if his arm doesn't disintegrate like the crew of the USS Exeter after being exposed to the Omega IV biological weapon virus.

19) Mark Hamilton, 1B, Grade C: Remember him? Looked like an injury-plagued bust but rebounded this year, got a place on the 40-man. Don't see how he fits in the lineup other than as trade bait.

20) Tyler Norrick, LHP, Grade C: Another 40-man roster addition, power lefty arm with a high strikeout rate.

OTHERS (All Grade C): Matt Adams, 1B; Nick Additon, LHP; Bryan Anderson, C; Adron Chambers, OF; Kyle Conley, OF; Roberto De La Cruz, 3B; Scott Gorgen, RHP; Trey Hearne, RHP; Virgil Hill, OF; Ben Jukich, LHP; Blake King, RHP; David Kopp, RHP; Casey Mulligan, RHP; Adam Ottavino, RHP; Tommy Pham, OF; Adam Reifer, RHP; Shane Robinson, OF; Fernando Salas, RHP; Scott Schneider, RHP; Niko Vasquez, INF; P.J. Walters, RHP.

Trades and graduations thinned this system out fast compared to last year, however, I actually like it better than these grades imply.

Shelby Miller and Robert Stock could both be B+ or A- prospects a year from now, once we get a full season of data to look at. Garcia and Lynn could both be in the starting rotation in 2011 and both have a reasonable chance to be very good pitchers. Sanchez has closer potential. Jones, Craig, and Freese could all develop into regular players under the right circumstances and at worst could be good role players, while Jay, Descalso, Henley, Greene, and Hill could all be useful if deployed properly. Jon Jay remains a personal favorite for reasons that I find hard to quantify.

There is a large batch of arms who could be very good relievers if they throw strikes (Kelly, Samuel, Norrick, King, Reifer) as well as an assortment of pitchability types.

The system needs more impact talent, but Miller and Stock should help provide that, and there's a huge batch of Grade C depth. There were about 10 other guys I could easily have written up as Grade C prospects with potential.

Baseball America's Top 10 Prospect Lists for 2010

raygu — Thu, 26 Nov 2009 18:00:18 -0000

We continue the Baseball America Top 10 Prospect lists for 2010 with the NL Central:

Cubs

1.	Starlin Castro, ss
2.	Brett Jackson, of
3.	Josh Vitters, 3b
4.	Andrew Cashner, rhp
5.	Jay Jackson, rhp
6.	Hak-Ju Lee, ss
7.	Logan Watkins, 2b
8.	Chris Carpenter, rhp
9.	Ryan Flaherty, ss/2b/3b
10.	D.J. LeMahieu, ss/2b

More after the jump:

Reds

1.	Todd Frazier, of/2b/3b
2.	Yonder Alonso, 1b
3.	Mike Leake, rhp
4.	Chris Heisey, of
5.	Juan Francisco, 3b
6.	Yorman Rodriguez, of
7.	Travis Wood, lhp
8.	Matt Maloney, lhp
9.	Brad Boxberger, rhp
10.	Zack Cozart, ss

Brewers

1. Alcides Escobar, ss

2. Brett Lawrie, 2b

3. Mat Gamel, 3b

4. Eric Arnett, rhp

5. Jonathan Lucroy, c

6. Kentrail Davis, of

7. Zach Braddock, lhp

8. Lorenzo Cain, of

9. Jake Odorizzi, rhp

10. Kyle Heckathorn, rhp

Astros

1. Jason Castro, c

2. Jiovanni Mier, ss

3. Jordan Lyles, rhp

4. Sammy Gervacio, rhp

5. Chia-Jen Lo, rhp

6. Ross Seaton, rhp

7. Tanner Bushue, rhp

8. Jay Austin, of

9. Jon Gaston, of

10. T.J. Steele, of

Pirates

1. Pedro Alvarez, 3b

2. Jose Tabata, of

3. Tony Sanchez, c

4. Brad Lincoln, rhp

5. Chase D'Arnaud, ss/2b

6. Starling Marte, of

7. Tim Alderson, rhp

8. Zack Von Rosenberg, rhp

9. Rudy Owens, lhp

10. Gorkys Hernandez, of

Cardinals

1. Shelby Miller	rhp
2. Jaime Garcia	lhp
3. Lance Lynn	rhp
4. Daryl Jones	of
5. David Freese	3b/1b
6. Eduardo Sanchez	rhp
7. Allen Craig	of/1b/3b
8. Blake Hawksworth	rhp
9. Daniel Descalso	2b
10. Robert Stock	c

Part II: Interview with Alex Eisenberg of Baseball-Intellect

Bryan Everson (The Royalty of Roto) — Mon, 16 Nov 2009 22:45:17 -0000

More photos » by Rob Carr - AP

2 months ago: Tampa Bay Rays starting pitcher Wade Davis prepares to throw to a Baltimore Orioles batter during the fifth inning of a baseball game, Thursday, Sept. 17, 2009, in Baltimore. The Rays won 3-0. Davis threw a four-hit shutout to earn his first major league win. (AP Photo/Rob Carr)

Browse more photos »

About three weeks ago, I had a chance to converse with Alex Eisenberg, who's in charge of Baseball-Intellect, focusing scouting young prospects and analysis of player's mechanics. If you want to check out Part I of that interview you can do it right here. With that, I bring you Part II of that interview, which focuses on some prospects that you've probably read in Ray's AFL updates.

TROR: Give me one prospect from each league that you think aren't being talked about or rated highly enough.

Alex: Oh man...I can't limit it to just one.

I don't know where other publications will rate these players, but here are some guys that under the radar, sleepers, and/or aren't household names.

- Nick Hagadone, LHP, Cleveland Indians - He's highly regarded, but people sleep on him. He's coming off TJ surgery and he's a bit old for his level, but he's a lefty with plus stuff who misses bats, keeps the ball on the ground...command is a bit of a question mark, but it projects to be solid enough. The Indians are being very conservative with him. He could be a front of the rotation starter or a multi-inning reliever out of the bullpen.

- Ryan Westmoreland, CF, Boston Red Sox - Not sure he'll be underrated, but he's not a household name. He's got an excellent blend of power and patience and the Red Sox are extremely high on him. Durability is a concern as he suffered a fractured clavical, just a year after tearing his rotator cuff.

- Zach Stewart, RHP, Toronto Blue Jays - He'll be the Blue Jay's No. 1 prospect, so he won't be underrated but he's also not a household name. Potential No. 3 starter or top flight set-up man...two plus pitches, ability to miss bats and get ground balls.

- Paul Demney, RHP, Washington Nationals - Not a lot of buzz surrounding Demney, but he's a sleeper. I don't think he'll be highly rated by other publications, but we'll see. Two good pitches (fastball and curve), but he's inconsistent. Could be a power arm out of the bullpen, but might be able to stick as a starter if he can improve his change-up and command.

- Fautino de los Santos, RHP, Oakland Athletics - Once a top-50 prospect, he fell off the face of the earth after undergoing Tommy John surgery. He came back briefly and his velocity was reportedly excellent. He was a potential front of the rotation starter before going down with an injury, but some felt he might be better suited for the bullpen. Given his age, it wouldn't surprise me if the A's try to fast track him to the majors by putting him in the bullpen.

- Chris Nelson (SS, Colorado Rockies), Jarek Cunningham (INF, Pittsburgh Pirates), Ivan De Jesus Jr. (SS/2b, Los Angeles Dodgers) - All were injured for most of 2009, all will be underrated because of it. Cunningham is the biggest wild card of the group because he's the least experience, has only experienced success in Rookie League ball, and has the most questions about his defense. But he's an excellent athlete and offers a lot of projection.

- Allen Webster (RHP, Los Angeles Dodgers) - Haven't seen him, but there is a lot of buzz surrounding him. Projectable, but already has good fastball velocity, good breaking ball and he throws strikes. He's somebody who could rise up prospect lists very quickly.

- Zach Britton (LHP, Baltimore Orioles) - Extreme ground ball pitcher with an ability to miss bats. Velocity increased over the past year and he's working on being better able to command his better stuff. Has a slider that has also developed well over the past year. He projects as a potential No. 3 or 4 starter.

TROR: Building on that, name one batting and pitching prospect in the AL that you think makes the biggest impact in 2010, and what about for the National League?

Alex: Again, I'm going to break the rules and name a couple for each league:

AL Hitters

- Justin Smoak (1B, Texas Rangers) - Despite a pretty poor Triple-A debut, he's still an elite prospect

- Brett Wallace (3B/1B, Oakland Athletics) - I don't see him as highly as others, but he can still rake and he's an excellent pure hitter

- Desmond Jennings (CF, Tampa Bay Rays) - Prototypical lead off hitter could be Carl Crawford's replacement.

AL Pitchers

- Zach Stewart - Mentioned him earlier, should have an immediate impact if he starts out in the bullpen

- Jeremy Hellickson and Wade Davis (RHP, Tampa Bay Rays) - Davis gave us a glimpse of what he can do late in the season. Hellickson doesn't have the raw stuff of Davis, but he commands his pitches extremely well and he has an excellent feel for pitching.

- Hector Rondon (RHP, Cleveland Indians) - Quality pitching prospect with a solid repertoire of pitches that he commands well. He should compete for a rotation spot out of Spring Training this year.

NL Hitters

- Jason Heyward (RF, Atlanta Braves) - The obvious choice as he's the best prospect in baseball.

- Buster Posey (C, San Francisco Giants) - The other obvious choice, a top-5 prospect that is major league ready now.

NL Pitchers

I don't see many potential impact pitching prospects that are ready in the NL.

Stephen Strasburg, but will the Nats be more conservative with him? Jaime Garcia perhaps, but he's coming off TJ surgery though he looked pretty good in his return last year. Daniel Schlereth, a hard throwing lefty out of the bullpen with Arizona is another one. There just aren't many impact guys right now. I see a lot more talent at the lower levels.

Madison Bumgardner is another guy that could make an impact, but his stuff needs to return to what it was prior to last season.

TROR: Thanks for your time, Alex.

Obviously Alex mentioned some of the major prospects that are going to be talked about as making immediate impact at the Major League level in 2010, but hopefully he re-affirmed some beliefs on those guys, and also touched on some guys that maybe haven't been talked about as much. It's a good primer for getting an idea of what kind of pitcher these guys are if you weren't familiar with them already, as well. Thanks again to Alex, and go check out his site if you haven't already.

Hot Stove kickoff: The Roster Matrix

DanUpBaby — Tue, 20 Oct 2009 10:00:52 -0000

2010 ROSTER MATRIX
2009 EDITION

STARTERS	BENCH	ROTATION	PEN
molina c $4.25m	lugo ut $400K	carpenter rhp $14.5m	franklin rhp $3.25m
pujols 1b $16m	greene ut $400K	lohse rhp $8.9m	mcclellan rhp $400k
schumaker 2b $2.5m	mather of $400K	wainwright rhp $4.65m	motte rhp $400K
freese 3b $400k	jay of $400K	garcia lhp $400k	boggs rhp $400K
ryan ss $400k	pagnozzi c $400K	hawksworth rhp $400k	kinney rhp $750k
craig lf $400k	stavinoha of memphis	lynn rhp memphis	miller lhp $2m
rasmus cf $400k	hoffpauir 2b memphis	walters rhp memphis	reyes lhp $2m
ludwick rf $5.5m			scherer rhp memphis
TOTAL $29.85m	TOTAL $2m	TOTAL $28.85m	TOTAL $9.2m
OVERALL	PAYROLL:	$69.9m

This is, to borrow a phrase from my home state's recent deficit-wrangling, the doomsday matrix; no free agent signings—no minor league free agent signings, for that matter—no long-term deals for players inside our out, no state fair. Luckily for the Cardinals, this skeleton budget is the result of money coming off the books, not being wrung out of it—$17.5 million from Troy Glaus and Khalil Greene, $12 million from Christy Mathewson and Todd Wellemeyer. I borrowed the arbitration guesses from flim's Table of Commitments over in fanposts; other raises, accounting for around $7 million, are due Molina, Carpenter, Lohse, Wainwright, Franklin, and Reyes.

Obviously the team isn't going to look like this, but if the Cardinals pared all the way back this is what they'd get.

Things that won't stand:

The free bench. The infield looks good, though Thurston might take a spot from either Tyler Greene (thereby leaving, I don't know, Jason Motte as the second best defensive shortstop on the club [great arm]) or a middle reliever. The outfield—well, that gets to be a problem, especially if the Cardinals don't spend the bulk of their found money resigning Matt Holliday. Mather is coming off a serious wrist injury, and Jon Jay, who hit .281/.338/.394 in the PCL last year, only wishes he was. I imagine one of the spare outfielders will be making the league minimum, but not both. Catching... well, who knows; La Russa seems to prefer a backup catcher who is established in his mediocrity, but he's made room for a no-hit minor leaguer with an inexplicably good reputation in the recent past.
Allen Craig, starting outfielder. I get the love for Allen Craig, but I'm not sure I'd blame the Cardinals for this one; his MLE last year, in the best season of his career to this point, was still just .278/.319/.440. He deserves every shot at a bench role, and I'd imagine he gets one, but the Cardinals can't cry poor enough to justify going into the season with a converted third baseman whose MiLB slugger credentials are not fully established as their starter in left field, which is not exactly a tough position to fill.
Back-of-the-rotation man-stew. Jaime Garcia should be plugged into the fifth slot, but Hawksworth/Walters et al are just close enough to fifth starter material—fifth starter material being, generally, the stuff they made my Wal-Mart TV stand out of—that the Cardinals should take the chance to fill the fourth spot with one of the relatively high-upside plays Chuck outlined on Sunday. (My personal favorites are Harden [the obvious class of the class, I'd think] and, in lowercase for now, Ben Sheets.)

But this is a solid, cheap base from which the Cardinals can build. If anything, it shows that the Cardinals could theoretically build a team around two high salary guys (say, Pujols and Holliday) and stay above replacement level all the way around. The 2010 Cardinals have, at a glance, four non-bullpen starters who are potentially above average contributors; I have to think that's the baseline for any team employing both Pujols and Holliday. Getting Holliday in the first place made that a little more difficult, but how 2009's draft plays out will be extremely important.

MLB Trade Rumors: Roy Halladay To The Cardinals??

raygu — Thu, 09 Jul 2009 13:30:08 -0000

More photos » by Frank Franklin II - AP

5 months ago: Toronto Blue Jays starting pitcher Roy Halladay delivers a pitch during the first inning of a baseball game against the New York Yankees on Saturday, July 4, 2009, at Yankee Stadium in New York. (AP Photo/Frank Franklin II)

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Joe Strauss from the St. Louis Post Dispatch tweeted last night that a Cardinals club official responded with the following when asked about the Cardinals interest in Roy Halladay:

Asked about the price tag for Halladay, a club source said: "Give Ricciardi all our minor-league rosters and let him circle any 5 names."

Check out the Baseball Prospectus pre-season top 11 prospects list created by Kevin Goldstein after the jump:

Five-Star Prospects
1. Colby Rasmus, CF
2. Brett Wallace, 3B
Four-Star Prospects
3. Chris Perez, RHP
4. Daryl Jones, LF
Three-Star Prospects
5. Jess Todd, RHP
6. Adam Reifer, RHP
7. Bryan Anderson, C
8. Jaime Garcia, LHP
9. Lance Lynn, RHP
10. Jason Motte, RHP
Two-Star Prospects
11. Niko Vasquez, SS

Just Missed: Mitch Boggs, RHP; Jon Jay, OF; Peter Kozma, SS

Now taking a look at this list, Colby Rasmus and Jason Motte are on the big league roster, and Chris Perez was traded to the Indians in the Mark DeRosa deal, leaving Ricciardi with a list that includes Brett Wallace, Daryl Jones, Jess Todd, Bryan Anderson and Peter Kozma, Mitch Boggs or Jaime Garcia.

If I were Blue Jays GM J.P. Ricciardi, I would want the deal to start with Rasmus and Wallace, otherwise, I test Phillies GM Ruben Amaro who can up the ante to include AA P Kyle Drabek instead of AAA P Carlos Carrasco. Don't get me wrong, Wallace can rake, but he is not a major league third baseman by all accounts. The rest of the top 5 I listed are not as "major league ready" as the proposed Phillies offer I made yesterday which included J.A. Happ, Carlos Carrasco, Michael Taylor and Jason Donald.

And secondly, why wouldn't the Cardinals go after a bat rather than a starting pitcher? They still need a bat to protect Albert Pujols, especially when they don't know when Mark DeRosa is coming off the DL.

Poll

Should the Cardinals deal for a bat (think Matt Holliday) or Roy Halladay?

A bat, preferably Matt Holliday.

186 votes

That's easy, Roy Halladay. I'd pick Hallday every day of the week and twice on Sunday.

433 votes

619 votes | Poll has closed

After losing series to NL Central's worst, Rockies draw the division's best

Poseidon's Fist — Fri, 05 Jun 2009 15:18:36 -0000

More photos » by Tom Gannam - AP

Tony LaRussa gets to have the most valuable hitter in MLB and the most effective pitching staff in the majors. It's not fair.

Browse more photos »

The St. Louis Cardinals are officially back in first place in the NL Central today. They raced out to a 3.5 game lead awith a 16-7 April, but the Brewers won 13 of 15 mid May to unseat them. The Cards' 4-10 stretch mid-May didn't help. They have been trading wins and losses since May 27.

Tonight will mark the first time the Rockies and Cardinals have squared off since the Matt Holliday trade crashed and burned. If you are curious, Mitchell Boggs is 1-0 with a 3.22 ERA in a handful of starts. Ryan Ludwick is struggling but still a better cleanup hitter than Garrett Atkins. And Skip Schumaker has traveled to the infield and continues to hit and be a sparkplug.

How appropriate is it then that Carlos Gonzalez got his promotion today? It will be an interesting side story to see. Hopefully he starts tonight.

The Cardinals took the season series 4-3 on the strength of a 2-1home series win the last time Colorado visited Busch Stadium, which was the opening series of 2008.

St. Louis Cardinals (31-23, W1, t-1st)

Friday-Monday : 4-game series at Busch Stadium

Nothing really needs to be said about Albert Pujols. He remains an unconscious freak with the bat, but the rest of the lineup is very pedestrian. They are 18th in runs scored, 16th in HR, and 17th in wOBA. All across the board, they are average, if not slightly below. So give "The Machine" his due, but don't be too scared of this lineup. It has produced less than the likes of the Orioles, Nationals and Twins. Because of the Pujols and Co. nature of the lineup, the Cards have been looking at adding a bat via trade; Mark DeRosa and Matt Holliday have been mentioned.

LINEUP	Avg	HR	RBI
Skip Schumaker - 2B	.302	3	16
Colby Rasmus - CF	.248	6	20
Albert Pujols - 1B	.346	17	48
Ryan Ludwick - RF	.240	8	27
Rick Ankiel - LF	.226	2	11
Yadier Molina - C	.259	3	17
Joe Thurston - 3B	.261	1	16
Brendan Ryan - SS	.281	0	4

Brendan Ryan has filled in admirably for offseason acquisition and Opening Day cleanup hitter Khalil Greene at shortstop. Tony LaRussa, ever the pioneer, has him batting ninth, behind the pitcher. Joe Thurston has filled in at third while Troy Glaus is on the bench. Rick Ankiel and Ryan Ludwick have had very inconsistent seasons, and their return to form (and the return of Glaus) would add a lot of clout back into the lineup. As it is, only three players from the lineup are deemed "above average" by wOBA: Pujols, Thurston and Schumaker. Chris Duncan (.255, 5, 27) will also get starts in the OF at the expense of Ankiel and Rasmus.

What has fed the Cardinals rise to the top has been their pitching. Chris Carpenter (4-0, 0.71) has returned to form after injury - he has allowed just 3 runs in 6 starts, didn't allow an earned run until his fifth start, and allowed just a solo home run by Laynce Nix (yes, there is a relation) in a three-hit complete game his last start. Luckily, we managed to miss him in this four-game series. The rest of the rotation has been impressive too. In fact, it may be the best pitching staff in the majors. To wit:

Name	Stat	MLB Rank
ERA	3.59	1st
FIP	3.93	4th
BA All	.248	4th
WHIP	1.27	1st
HR/9	0.73	5th
K/BB	2.12	5th

Ladies and gentlemen, those are fantastic numbers for any starting pitcher. I would love for those to match any of our starting pitchers, let alone the entire staff. In fact, out of the Rox rotation, Jorge de la Rosa and Ubaldo Jimenez are better than the Cards' average in HR/9 and FIP, and Jason Hammel is a tinge better at K/BB. That's it. Other than that, the Cards' team average is better than any Rockies starter. With names like Piniero, Thompson Wellemeyer and Lohse gets starts, it's easy to be unheralded.

Just don't let me hear "Oh man! We're getting shut down by these guys?" There are some quality arms at LaRussa's disposal. Oh and by the way, their unheralded closer, Ryan Franklin, has 13 saves, a 1.29 ERA and a 0.81 WHIP. His one blown save came May 10th, when he allowed his only two home runs of the year, to Jerry Hairston Jr and pinch-hitter Micah Owings.

Probable Pitchers:

Tonight, 6:15 pm MDT

	W-L	ERA	WHIP	K	BB
2009 - Jorge De La Rosa	0-6	5.43	1.43	57	26

	W-L	ERA	WHIP	K	BB
2009 - Adam Wainwright	5-3	3.38	1.31	59	28

Saturday, June 6, 5:15 pm MDT

	W-L	ERA	WHIP	K	BB
2009 - Aaron Cook	3-3	4.94	1.50	28	25

	W-L	ERA	WHIP	K	BB
2009 - Todd Wellemeyer	5-5	5.05	1.62	39	27

Sunday, June 7, 12:15 MDT

	W-L	ERA	WHIP	K	BB
2009 - Ubaldo Jimenez	3-6	4.11	1.48	57	30

	W-L	ERA	WHIP	K	BB
2009 - Joel Pineiro	5-5	3.86	1.24	25	8

Monday, June 8, 12:15 MDT

	W-L	ERA	WHIP	K	BB
2009 - Jason Marquis	7-4	4.10	1.37	35	27

	W-L	ERA	WHIP	K	BB
2009 - Brad Thompson	0-1	4.12	1.22	6	3

Albert Pujols is on a tear. When is he not? The Machine has gone 13-for-25 with 3 HR in the past seven days. Brendan Ryan, Joe Thurston and Colby Rasmus all have at least 7 hits in the past week. Rasmus has the only Cardinal HR in the past week by one not named Albert.

Ryan Ludwick was scuffling a bit before he hit the disabled list May 13, but since he returned May 29, he has only two singles in 23 ABs. Rick Ankiel has managed just 3 hits in his last 21 trips, and Yadier Molina has scratched out four singles in his last 20 ABs.

Joel Piniero (back) is listed as questionable and Kyle Lohse (forearm) is listed as doubtful. Khalil Greene was placed on the 15-day DL May 28 for anxiety issues, while Troy Glaus (shoulder) and Jaime Garcia (elbow) are also on the 15-day DL.

Poll

What's in the cards for the Rockies in St. Louis?

Pure domination of a fearful sort. Swept by a very good team

19 votes

Still only one sweep on the year. We will get one.

27 votes

Split it. Because I play the odds. I'm going to win this prediciton contest!

15 votes

A surprising series brings Tracy back over .500 with the Rox

13 votes

The Miracle in Missouri

19 votes

93 votes | Poll has closed

Why the Rockies should have taken a flyer on Shawn Hill

RockiesMagicNumber — Wed, 25 Mar 2009 16:50:03 -0000

So this article became kind of moot yesterday when the stupid Padres picked up Shawn Hill, but you still get to enjoy my article on why we should've picked him up.

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Remember a couple months ago how much the Rockies were trying to land Tim Redding? We even went as far as to offer Willy Taveras - who of course, we later cut - to the Nationals for this pitcher.

Tim Redding

#44 / Pitcher / New York Mets

Height: 5-11

Weight: 225

Bats: R

Throws: R

Born: Feb 12, 1978

What on earth were we thinking?

Dan O'Dowd gets the strangest fixations on the crappiest pitchers. I'm not going to take the time to go through the past 5 years and point them out, but Tim Redding was the most recent O'Dowd ManCrush.

Redding isn't an AWFUL pitcher. He's a serviceable back-end starter. He pup up an ERA of 4.95 last season over 182 innings, and FIP supports his performance, clocking in at 4.93. He pretty much performed as well as you'd expect him to, defense or no. Redding used a mediocre combination of K9, BB9, and HR9 to build those numbers (5.93, 3.21, 1.34) along with a GB% of 39.8 (below average), and while none of them would impress anyone too much, he did have a K/BB ratio of 1.85 and a WHIP of 1.43. I'll be honest, those numbers aren't terrible, but why was O'Dowd so intent on picking him up? He would've also cost the team between $1.5-2.5M, pretty much guaranteeing him a roster spot, so if he stunk, there's not much we could do with him.

Especially when another Nationals starter was close by and could more than likely be had for a song?

Shawn Hill

#41 / Pitcher / San Diego Padres

Height: 6-2

Weight: 225

Bats: R

Throws: R

Born: Apr 28, 1981

Shawn Hill would come with a pile of baggage. Inside that baggage, you would find gauze, tape, bandaids, ibuprofen, ice packs, slings, and a little black book full of physical therapists' numbers. Over the past 3 seasons, Hill has put together 197.1 IP over 34 starts. Most certainly not impressive, but completely understandable when you consider the number of injuries he's had. He stunk up an ERA of 5.83 in 2008, but had a FIP of only 4.06. That .373 BABIP (compared to a career .324) really doesn't help things in that regard, as he was clearly tipping, or getting unlucky, but basically not pitching to his ability.

The upsides of Hill involve his sinker and the ensuing GB% that comes with it. Hill's sinker comes in at about 90 mph, and according to his Pitch F/X data, he gets around 11-12 inches of break on it (about 6 in the vertical, 10 in the horizontal - for comparison, Cook gets about 9 inches, roughly the same vertical but less horizontal). Take that and add in decent control and you get a Career 50.1%GB. Downright impressive, and it sounds to me like the kind of guy we should've been looking for. I know he's totally injury prone, but what if we could get 15-17 starts out of him? Who knows, maybe we could've worked some sort of healing magic over him to get him back in one piece.

However, instead of watching the bargain bin, we instead move forward with guys like Josh Fogg who can throw a splitter effectively enough, but don't have much of a future starting anymore. This far into Spring Training, we've seen a lot of our question mark guys kind of fizzle and look like the low end of what we were hoping (Smith, Hirsh, Fogg, Reynolds), and while we have seen some upsides (Morales, Chacin), it's sounding like we're in the market for more pitching depth for sure. Hill would've been a great addition, even if it was only for a dozen starts or so.

In reading this, you might've stumbled across the RMN method for valuing pitcher ability ©. For those of you who DIDN'T, I'll go ahead and break it down for you.

I'm firmly of the position that the things you can evaluate hard-and-fast for a pitcher are Strikeouts, Walks, and Home Runs. All have park effects related to them, but they're pretty much the only things that a pitcher can control. A really good pitcher also won't give up many hits, but there are a lot of variable that may make one pitcher look downright hittable and another one look like a lockdown ace.

So K9, BB9, and HR9 are the things I look at. First and foremost, I look at HR9, but that isn't enough to DQ a pitcher. I like to see a HR9 lower than 1.00. Next, I want to see K9 and BB9. A pitcher with a good K rate (6 and up), a good BB rate (3ish, lower), and by extension a solid K/BB (North of 1.5-1.6) will get a bit of forgiveness in a suboptimal HR9, because you're not seeing them put a lot of guys on base via BB to get driven in on those HRs, or they just strike everyone else out after letting someone on.

Finally, and this is the fun one: GB%. With our potential IF defense, GB% can make you forget a LOT of the unsatisfactory areas above, for obvious reasons. League Average GB% in 2008 was about 43% - think Zack Greinke, John Danks, Armando Galarraga, or Jeff Francis. Hill has a 50.1% career GB, so yeah, you can see where he might be someone to keep an eye on.

A few young pitchers to keep in the book-o'-cheap-trade-targets include Brad James from Houston, Jaime Garcia from St. Louis, Dallas Trahern from Detroit, Dallas Buck with Cincy, and Robert Mosebach with the Angels, just to name a few potential young groundballing pitchers. - Several of these pitchers may have swapped teams, I was going off of what Baseball Cube told me, feel free to correct me.

As long as we're on this short tangent, Mark Mulder might be a decent pickup, despite his probable inability to keep his arm on his shoulder. He has a strong history of groundballing, could come for a minor league contract.

Anyhow, the scrap heap isn't too full anymore, but who knows what other players will be released in the next 2 weeks here that we could use to fill out or terribly thinning ranks.