SB Nation - Chris Perez

Fantasy Baseball: Early AL Closer Watch.

Ian, yo — Thu, 24 Dec 2009 03:04:26 -0000

More photos » by Kathy Willens - AP

8 months ago: New York Yankees closer Mariano Rivera delivers to a member of the Phillies AAA club during a spring training baseball game at the Yankees minor league complex in Tampa, Fla., Tuesday, March 31, 2009. (AP Photo/Kathy Willens)

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We've seen a lot of trade rumors and trade analysis as of late and there really hasn't been any mention of the many teams with closer situations. We will check back in after a few months and see if anything has changed, but this is how things are looking as of now.

AL East

Yankees- I think we all know this answer. Mo' should be one of the top closers in the game again. One day, he may fall apart, but for a player of his caliber, he may retire before than happens. Next in line: Phil Hughes, Joba Chamberlain, Mark Melancon.
Red Sox- Jonathan Papelbon. In 2009, Papelbon posted a 1.85 ERA, which would lead you to believe he had a successful season. If you look at the peripheral stats, you'd see that Papelbon had an FIP of 3.05 and while he kept his K/9 above 10, he posted a BB/9 over 3 for the first time since his rookie season where he threw only 34 big league innings. I wouldn't be surprised to see Papelbon traded with the closer in waiting in Daniel Bard likely getting more work in the later innings. Next in line: Daniel Bard, Hideki Okajima, Manny Delcarmen.
Orioles- Mike Gonzalez. The Orioles signed Gonzalez to be their closer and I can't really see anyone challenging him for the job this year. Next in line: Jim Johnson, Kam Mikolio.
Blue Jays- Jason Frasor. While there is nothing concrete in Toronto, I think Frasor will be the guy in 2010. Frasor saved 11 games in 2009 and ended the season with an FIP of 2.99 and a K/BB of 3.50. I think if the season were to begin today, Frasor would be the man, but he could lose it fairly easily. Next in line: Scott Downs, Jeremy Accardo.
Rays- Rafael Soriano. The Rays either didn't seem confident or have other plans for J.P Howell in 2010. After trading prospect Jesse Chavez to Atlanta, the Rays are set at closer with Soriano. If he were to get hurt (which he does somewhat often) I would think Wheeler is the next on the list with Howell being the late inning lefty. Next in line: Dan Wheeler, J.P. Howell and Grant Balfour.

AL Central

Twins- Joe Nathan. See Mariano Rivera. Next in line: Jon Rauch, Pat Neshek, Matt Guerrier, Jose Mijares.
Tigers- Joel Zumaya. Currently the Tigers depth chart lists Zumaya as the closer. He's always been thought of as the closer of the future, but the Tigers have never really given him an extended look due to durability concerns. If made a closer, Zumaya could be a top level closer but he'll have to get his walks under control for that to happen. Next in line: Ryan Perry, Daniel Schlereth, Casey Fien, Phil Coke.
White Sox- Bobby Jenks. As we speak, Jenks seems to be the closer and is listed as such on the depth chart. Matt Thornton is the better pitcher, but experience could be key here. I still think Thornton ends up with the job at some point. Next in line: Matt Thornton, J.J. Putz.
Indians- Kerry Wood. Wood struggled in and there are a few more guys in waiting that could make this one of the more interesting (aka: avoidable) closer situations in 2010. Next in line: Chris Perez, Rafael Perez.
Royals- Joakim Soria. One of the more talented relievers in the game. He was hampered by injuries a bit in 2009 and still saved 30 games with a 2.21 ERA. I don't see him going anywhere. Next in line: Juan Cruz, Kyle Farnsworth.

AL West

Angels- Brian Fuentes. Didn't have the greatest season, but the Angels paid him to close, so I don't see him doing anything else. Next in line: Fernando Rodney, Kevin Jepsen.
Rangers- Frank Francisco. Francisco spent time on and off the DL in 2009 and the Rangers bolstered their bullpen by adding Chris Ray and Darren Oliver, making the closer role available to C.J. Wilson, Chris Ray, Francisco or fireballer Neftali Feliz. If the Rangers decide not to prepare Feliz to start, he could very easily become an elite closer. Next in line: Chris Ray, C.J. Wilson, Neftali Feliz.
Mariners- David Aardsma. The Mariners seem to be pushing for a playoff berth in 2010 by trading away Brandon Morrow for Brandon League and prospect Johermyn Chavez. League brings a big time GB% (which fits in with Seattle's league leading defense.) While I do think Aardsma will be the closer and will be successful, I wouldn't totally rule out a trade of one of the young, power arms in Seattle's pen. Next in line: Mark Lowe, Brandon League, Shawn Kelley, Joshua Fields.
Athletics- Andrew Bailey. The reigning AL Rookie of the Year is likely to be the closer for the A's in 2010, but that's what we thought about Brad Zeigler in 2009. I still see Bailey as the closer, however. Next in line: Brad Ziegler, Joey Devine, Michael Wuertz, John Meloan.

Trader Mo Redux

the red baron — Wed, 14 Oct 2009 17:59:51 -0000

More photos » by Tom Gannam - AP

Yep, that's right. Jeff Fucking Weaver. (AP Photo/Tom Gannam)

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The worst part was I really believed in this team.

I'm actually of two minds, really; the analyst side of me, the part that studies the game and writes about it for a living, never honestly thought this team a legitimate title contender. I always said the offense was undependable and the bullpen just didn't have the kind of shutdown arms that lead to postseason success. You can go back and read the published record, too; I always thought the Cards had a chance, yes, but I never bought into them as a juggernaut in the 2004 mold.

The problem comes when you consider the other side, the fan side, of the equation. The fan in me didn't see those things, didn't fear the bullpen. In my heart, I thought the Cards could would most definitely absolutely will turn it on come playoff time. Tony La Russa teams don't get knocked out in the divisional series, after all; La Russa's overall postseason record may not be the stuff of legend, but his record in the NLDS certainly is. In my mind, the Cards' offense was wildly inconsistent and capable of being shut down at any moment; in my heart, the holy trinity of PujolsHollidayLudwick would crush the spirits and WPAs of any and all opponents. In my mind, Ryan Franklin had saved only a single game in the final month of the season and was looking more and more like fodder for the glue factory; in my heart he was ready to etch his name indelibly into Cardinal lore with a strikeout and a photograph as teammates leapt and capered on their way toward the victory pile on the mound.

So when I say I believed in this team, understand I mean it halfway, and somehow that's worse than all the way. If I had thought this team the greatest of all time and then watched the collapse, perhaps I could mourn properly; begin with shock and disbelief, then move right on through anger at the shoddy play and the zombified end to depression for the end of the season and finally to acceptance of our fate as a team not quite as good as it looked. But this halfway belief is awful; I know I should have known better because I did know better, yet I was still just as shocked and horrified when I turned out to be right. I'm left feeling vindicated and miserable in vindication.

But any way you wish to slice things, the season is now over. The time has now come to look ahead, not back, to move forward, not sideways, and always whirling, whirling toward the future. But before we can look forward, we have to do just a bit more hindsighting.

The 2009 season will be forever defined, for better or for worse, by the trades that were made. The Cards went all in this season, only to see it all fall apart when the playoffs arrived. That's the problem with going all in, of course, and the reason so many of us (myself included), weren't huge fans of the Matt Holliday deal long before he became Public Enemy #1 in Cardinal Nation for trying to catch a humpback liner with his genitals; going all in is great if you win, because flags do in fact fly forever, but if you come up a little short, there is no Plan B.

So what, exactly, did the Cardinals gain, and what did they lose? Let's do us a little redux here of the deals made and see where we stand at the end of this ultimately frustrating 2009 season, shall we?

The Khalil Greene Trade

I'll be the first to admit it: I was a huge fan of this deal at the time. I was. I thought Greene to be a significantly undervalued player whose numbers were being artificially suppressed by his home ballpark. Add in a truly brutal 2008 campaign that no ballpark could have made look any better, and you had a player ripe for a renaissance. I felt like the inclusion of a player to be named later in the deal made the price a bit on the high side, considering just how awful Greene's numbers were, but I was still quite excited about the Cardinals' new shortstop.

Well, see, there's a little problem with that.

We were all, of course, unaware at the time Khalil's problems went a little deeper than a declining slugging percentage. For the life of me, I still can't quite figure out if I should blame Johnny Mo and Co. for not being more aware of Khalil's penchant for long sleeves and Bauhaus records or not. On the one hand, you want to be pissed they didn't do their due diligence and somehow missed the thing, but on the other, psychological problems aren't like a frayed rotator cuff. There's no magical scan that reveals when someone is hurting on the inside, and it isn't as if his teammates were jumping at the chance to talk about how messed up Khalil is.

What Was Given Up: Luke Gregerson, RHP Mark Worrell, RHP

Okay, so we can put this one solidly in the loss column. Worrell clearly had no place in the organisation after he aired his dirty laundry publicly last offseason, a factor which helped make me even more positive on the deal when it was made. Unfortunately, the player to be named later turned out to be Gregerson, a guy plenty of prospect-watchers really liked, and he turned out to be pretty damned good.

In 75 inning this season, Gregerson was absolutely brilliant, posting a 2.50 FIP for the Padres. He is pitching in a park which heavily suppresses home runs, so he does get a bit of a boost there, but he also struck out over eleven batters per nine innings, which so far as I know is at least fairly okay. What hurts worse is the fact the Cardinals biggest weakness by the end of the season, right-handed relief, just happens to be the exact demographic Gregerson belongs to. (You're going to notice a pattern here.) Any and all contributions the Padres receive from Mark Worrell are secondary at this point; San Diego already received a full season of essentially closer-level production for free in exchange for the Marquis de SAD.

The Future: The Cardinals get nothing when Khalil walks. Not so good, Mo.

The Mark DeRosa Trade

This one I had mixed feelings on from the very start. I felt the Cardinals did a fine job of identifying an area of weakness and acting to bring a player in to address that weakness, but I also felt they gave up far too much in return for said player. (Again, you may notice a theme in this vein.) DeRosa seemed like such an ideal fit, though, that I mostly kept such concerns to myself. The Cards needed someone better than Thursty Joe at third base, and Mark DeRosa plays third base, among other things. The Cards needed help hitting left-handed pitching, and Mark DeRosa has typically murdered lefties. On top of that, he had a reputation as an outstanding clubhouse guy, and his interviews are pure gold.

Sadly, DeRosa simply wasn't very good for the Cardinals. His OBP was atrocious, he struggled to do anything but hit home runs the first month or so, then went whole hog and struggled to do that, too. His defense wasn't bad, but it wasn't really all that good, either. Bottom line, Mark DeRosa in a Cardinal uniform just wasn't as cool as a lot of people thought it was going to be.

What Was Given Up: Chris Perez, RHP Jess Todd, RHP

Oy. This one really hurts. The Cards sent Chris Perez and Jess Todd to the Indians in exchange for Mr. Of the Rose, and once again, those two players fall squarely into that category of "Guys the Cards Sure Could Use More Of Now." Both are right-handed relievers, and both are solid bets to be very good pitchers going forward, I do believe.

Perez in particular is a painful loss, as he has better stuff than anyone in the Cardinal bullpen as it stands right now, and showed plenty of signs of putting it all together for the Indians. He had a truly remarkable run for almost two months, as he didn't surrender a single run from the 8th of July through the 5th of September. Perez appeared in 20 games during that time frame, covering 20.2 innings, and walked only 5 hitters. He didn't issue a free pass for almost a month, from the 9th of August to the 5th of September. Unfortunately, Perez did have a rough September overall, particularly in the middle of the month, but that doesn't change the fact he was essentially untouchable for the two months prior. We could debate why Perez didn't have more success here until the cows come home, but the fact remains he was an extremely valuable reliever for Cleveland, and I expect big things from Perez as soon as 2010.

Jess Todd, formerly slated to become Destroyer of Worlds for St. Louis, had a bit of a rough go in his first couple tastes of the major leagues. We all saw what happened to him when he made his major league debut with the Cardinals, and it didn't get appreciably better for Todd with the Indians, as he posted a 7.40 ERA in 20.2 innings with them. That does come with a 4.31 FIP and a BABIP of .431 (Huh. What an odd coincidence.), so improvement should come even if Todd does the exact same thing next year he did this season. Of course, I personally don't expect him to do the exact same thing next season, I expect him to adjust to the big leagues and take off as an excellent setup reliever. He doesn't have the stuff of Perez, nor is he going to post the gaudy strikeout totals of Gregerson, but I see Todd in an eighth inning role sometime in the near future, and I see him doing a hell of a job at it.

The Future: This is actually the best part of the deal, as DeRosa is a Type B free agent. The Cards offer him arbitration and he signs somewhere else, they receive a supplemental round draft pick, which, incidentally, is the round in which Chris Perez was selected to begin with. So there is some value at least coming there. (Of course, DeRo could screw the pooch on that one by accepting arbitration, but hey, you pay your money and you take your chances.)

The Matt Holliday Trade

Ah, and now we come to the big one. (Did I hear a That's What She Said in the back? I believe I did! Hallelujah!) The deal for Matt Holliday is, so far, the defining moment of Mozeliak's tenure as GM; the moment in which Mr. Mo made his mark. What that mark may be exactly is still to be determined, but for those who complained all through Mo's first year-plus of stewardship that he hadn't really done anything, here you go. He certainly did something this time.

I won't lie; I didn't really like the Holliday deal when it was made, and I don't like it all that well now. I know I was in the definite minority back in July, but I thought the Cardinals massively overpaid for Holliday's services. That being said, the man is still the best left fielder in the game and represents a potent complement to Albert Pujols in the middle of the lineup.

What Was Given Up: Brett Wallace, 3B Shane Peterson, OF Clayton Mortensen, RHP

Let's start with the biggest component, both literally and figuratively: Brett Wallace. There's been an extraordinary amount of ink and bandwidth both used already to discuss the Walrus, and the song remains the same: at the plate, he's a hell of a hitter. As a third baseman, he's a hell of a hitter.

The thing about Wallace is this: we always knew he was drafted to be traded at some point in time. Even the few scouts who liked his chances of sticking at third were careful to specify only in the short term; the man was moving across the diamond eventually. Even so, if he had managed to play third at anything less than a Bruanian pace, Wallace's bat would make him a very, very valuable player.

And for what it's worth, Total Zone Rating (the only defensive metric we really have for minor league guys), had Wallace as almost exactly an average defender at the hot corner this season. I know, I know, that can't possibly be right, because I saw him play there one day and he didn't get to a ball to his left he should have, and my brother said he misses those all the time and his best friend Todd said he talked to Wallace one time and he said he hated third base so much because he was so bad at it he was considering retiring rather than continue to embarrass himself on a nightly basis. Regardless of what we might think anecdotally, the numbers have Wallace as something less than a total disaster, and when it comes to defense, I trust the numbers more than my own eyes. Defense is just too hard to judge. So what we have is a player who has a bat that should carry him wherever he wants to go, and who should be able to play third base for at least a couple years at a level far short of that Braunian pace I was speaking of earlier. Sounds about right, doesn't it?

Add to Wallace Clay Mortensen and Shane Peterson, and you begin to have a pretty remarkable haul of talent going out for Matt Holliday. Mortensen himself will likely never be anything more than a #5 starter (though I still think there's a chance he could be better), but a #5 starter for free is still all kinds of valuable. As long as he can keep himself out of trouble with Johnny Law I think Mort should be fine.

More interesting to me, honestly, is Shane Peterson. I was never much of a fan of Peterson, to be honest (I never really likedhis swing; funny hand load and all), but since the trade I've gone and taken a closer look, and I think I may have missed the boat here. Peterson began the year in High-A Palm Beach, and posted an OPS near .800, no mean feat in that ballpark and that league. He moved up to Springfield and did alright in limited time there before he was traded. He went to Midland, the A's Double-A affiliate, and hit fairly well, with an OPS of .727. Certainly not a world-beating performance, by any means, but also not bad for a 21 year old playing in Double A for the first time.

Peterson is a guy who isn't going to hit for a ton of power, particularly of the over-the-fence variety, but he should hit plenty of doubles. He isn't a burner by any means, but he's got the wheels he could probably play center if necessary. He has just enough arm to play right field, though he' s played mostly left in his pro career. His walk rate is decent but not great, but you would think a coaching staff who stressed a good approach at the plate could be helpful with that. In short, Peterson doesn't do anything outstanding, but he does most things pretty well. He's literally almost the perfect Oakland player. I fully expect him to do very well in the A's organisation, where the value of getting on base will be heavily stressed.

The Future: When (or if, I suppose), Holliday heads out for the territories, he will do so as a Type A free agent. The Cards will receive the first round pick of whatever team signs him, unless said team picks in the first fifteen. Then it becomes their second round pick, and the whole thing just takes even one more step downward. Still, the fact Holliday could potentially bring back a first round pick and one in the supplemental goes a long way toward removing some of the sting of the package given up for him. Well, maybe not a long way, but some ways, anyway.

I'm just going to skip over the trade involving Chris Duncan and Deathgaze. The Cards got a free infielder with a decent bat and bad range, and the Red Sox got the chance to ensure Dave Duncan will never try to force his way into their organisation. Win all around.

So to sum up, the Cardinals this year gave up four right-handed relievers, two of whom could be real impact guys int he near future I think. Todd may be an impact guy too, but I think it might be another year or two before he gets there. We look at the big club's bullpen for 2010, and I have to say I'm a little concerned you might be able to build a better 'pen from guys the Cards traded away this year than what they still have.

The Cards also gave up their number one prospect, and the player most likely to make an impact playing at third base in 2010. David Freese is now the likely front-runner for the job, assuming both Troy Glaus and Mark DeRosa are gone, and while Freese is severely underrated by many, I think, he's no Brett Wallace.

So once again I'll say it: this is the problem with going all in. The Cards went all in this season trying to take advantage of the fact Chris Carpenter was fully healthy after two seasons on the shelf and Adam Wainwright was pitching at a Cy Young level, and I can't really blame them. The farm system was in plenty good shape to absorb the hit, and the big club looked ever so close to being a real contender. Now we have most of October left to consider how much talent left the organisation this year in return for the chance to pay free agents to do the same job in 2010 the kids we traded away could have done for free.

In the end, I said I can't blame them, and that's exactly what I mean. I can't say I wouldn't have done the same thing (except I wouldn't have; in fact, i would always err on the side of holding on to my prospects, and would probably be a terrible GM who could never quite get over the hump), but the reality is this: the bullpen is an areaof huge concern for the Cardinals, and they trade three players who could help with that next year. Third base is a less pressing concern, but of no less import; the lineup needs production, and if Holliday walks I'm a little unsure where it's going to come from.

So I ask you all, without going down the road of how much we all hate Matt Holliday for making an error and having the temerity to take bad at-bats for three whole games, was it worth it? Was the remarkable run the Cardinals went on in August worth seeing Brett Wallace knock around AL West pitching for the next couple years? Was ruining the Cubs' good time at the top of the division worth seeing Ryan Franklin try to close out games a month past his expiration date, all the while knowing he was the Cardinals' best option still in a Cardinal uniform? Does the promise of extra draft picks take the sting out for you, or do you wish for a 'Bird, maybe not in the hand, but at least near enough to reach out and grab if necessary?

Was it worth it?

Oops, and I forgot a playlist.

The Baron's Playlist for the 14th of October, 2009

"The Ghost" - Deer Tick

"Actor Out of Work" - St. Vincent

"It Just Is" - Rilo Kiley

"My Funny Valentine" - Gerry Mulligan Quartet w/ Chet Baker

Fire Everyone! - Mark Shapiro

Jay — Fri, 09 Oct 2009 05:53:11 -0000

More photos » by Tony Dejak - AP

Is just developing a good process enough?

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This is the final installment in a 12-part series.

"A Hit Is A Hit" — The Sopranos, season one.

Christopher has been bankrolling a band called "Visiting Day", who are managed by his girlfriend Adriana. He plays the band's demo to his associate Hesh, an old-timer in the music business.

CHRISTOPHER: So?

HESH: I think it's ... not good.

CHRISTOPHER: Wanna be a little more specific?

HESH: There's good. And there's not good. This is not good.

CHRISTOPHER: Okay, maybe it's not your era — no offense, but ...

HESH: Kid, music is music, talent is talent. I don't care who you are. I seen it all. I seen heavy metal invented by Hendrix at the Bottom Line, he just got out of the army. I told him, "Kid, I don't know what you call it — talent, charisma, magic — whatever it is, you got it." These guys ... [gestures to the cassette] ... I'm sorry, they don't.

CHRISTOPHER: That Vito is a great guitar player, Hesh.

HESH: Good, fine, he's a great guitar player. However, there's one constant in the music business: A hit is a hit. And this, my friend, is not a hit.

CHRISTOPHER: But why?

HESH: Christ. Reasons we can never comprehend or codify, you pitiful schlepper.

Of all the installments in this series, this is the one where it's most tempting to beg off and admit, this might just above my pay grade. I'll be honest, I can't say with much confidence whether Mark Shapiro should be fired. What I can say is that there are definitely good reasons to fire him.

Before we get to that, better face up to some hard facts. If you're going to fire Shapiro, you have to believe that a better option is available. Chris Antonetti is the heir apparent, but you fire Shapiro and keep Antonetti only if you think that in keeping Antonetti, you preserve the best parts of Shapiro while rooting out his shortcomings. Heck, maybe that's actually the case, but I personally couldn't say. It doesn't seem likely. And if Antonetti was the instant front-runner for most any GM opening, what would that make Shapiro if he were available?

Shapiro's calling card is turning walk-year veterans into prospects who become multi-year contributors to the team — a truly staggering haul, including Grady Sizemore, Cliff Lee, Coco Crisp, Shin-Soo Choo, Travis Hafner, Milton Bradley, Franklin Gutierrez, Asdrubal Cabrera, Josh Bard and Kelly Shoppach. Add to that list, potentially, over the next several years, Matt LaPorta, Carlos Santana, Luis Valbuena, Michael Brantley, Lou Marson, plus a half-dozen significant pitching prospects, plus Mark DeRosa, Arthur Rhodes, Justin Masterson and Chris Perez. Even his least successful trade acquisitions — Alex Escobar, Jason Michaels, Brandon Phillips, Billy Traber, Andy Marte, Josh Barfield — have not been entirely bereft of big-league talent.

We've chanted that litany before, but it bears recalling because horse trading is one of the most important jobs of a GM, and it's notably one of the only jobs where success or failure is directly traced to his decision. Shapiro also has had an impressive run with third-tier free agent starting pitchers — Pavano made 33 starts and netted a decent prospect, Byrd completed three serviceable seasons, Millwood won the freakin' ERA title, and even Brian Anderson did okay for a couple of years. And while fans rightly bemoan the dead weight of Hafner's contract, Shapiro has not really made the big, crippling mistakes that befall most GMs — on the balance sheet, Hafner-Westbrook-Dellucci pale before Wells-Rios-Ryan.

If you're going to get rid of Shapiro and his like-minded colleagues, then you have to be willing to live without those exemplary skills — without his leadership, class, and intelligence, his deftness with trades and contracts, the respect he commands within the industry, and especially — especially — his willingness to take the public body blows when tough decisions need to be made. You can't assume that the next guy will excel in all of those areas. I am certain we'd miss those qualities.

Having said that, I can tell you why Shapiro should be fired in one word: Talent.

Baseball is never simple. As a rule, the world's most elite natural athletes cannot succeed as major leaguers. Hitting and pitching are simply too hard. Hitting at this level requires a knack that may be the hardest thing to quantify or characterize in all of sports, and if you don't have it, then all the talk or mechanics and approaches in the world can't save you, even if you have several NBA championships and MVP awards on your résumé. Pitching at this level requires a freakish combination of precise muscle control, huge arm-generated torque, resistance to elbow and shoulder injury under extreme stress, and intelligence.

Running a baseball club may be just as hard and just as unquantifiable; after all, more than a few titans of industry have tried and failed. A brilliant executive can't necessarily run a ballclub any better than a world-class athlete can hit a curveball. The brilliant executive can be an inspiring leader, managing and empowering his charges. He can define what kind of people he wants working in the organization, hire them, set expectations, evaluate them, act on them. He can fire people. He can order case studies and surveys of best practices. He can analyze statistics and devise processes, enact them, evaluate them, refine them, start over from scratch if need be. He can maintain outstanding communication with his staff, with his bosses, with the public. He can do all these things reliably, even predictably, because he simply has the tools and the skills.

For all that, however, the brilliant executive can't necessarily tell you whether it's better to overspend on Raul Ibañez or Kerry Wood. He can't necessarily devise a process to tell you that, and he can't necessarily hire the right person to tell you that, either. Nor can he devise a process to hire the right person to tell you that. It doesn't always come down to objective analysis or having a good process. Sometimes it comes down to talent: the talent to play, the talent to evaluate talent, the talent to develop talent, and the judgment to make decisions about talent.

Sometimes — often, maybe — it comes down to reasons we can never comprehend or codify, pitiful schleppers that we are.

Evaluating talent is a special skill, and here I can speak with some experience. Most of my professional life is centered around my ability to identify genuine talent — musical talent, IT talent, and even writing talent — people who reliably will perform at a high or exceptionally high level, just about 100 percent of the time. I have, on occasion, identified individuals with weak paper qualifications who later went on to excel in their field. In some cases, they thrived in part because I gave them an opportunity and aided their development. In other cases, their success was inevitable, and I just saw it earlier than some others.

I am not suggesting, by any stretch of the imagination, that I have the ability to judge baseball talent. Maybe, if I'd spent 20 years working as a baseball professional, learning from thousands of discussions with scouts and making and testing my own observations — maybe then, but perhaps not even then. For whatever it's worth, though, I can tell you that my ability to assess a person's talents is entirely intuitive. I have no ability to explain it, or to teach anyone else how to do it. I can be highly analytical in my assessments of people, breaking down facts and metrics, making rules and devising grading systems to create rankings — and I can teach these things by rote and by example. However, none of that has anything to do with being able to differentiate reliably between a high ceiling and a low ceiling.

I can't tell you for sure that it's the same for baseball, but I worry that it is. Most of the people reading this could be trained in the rudiments of being a low-level scout — doing your homework and measuring some kid's raw tools on the field. Skills are another thing entirely — evaluating footwork and positioning on defense, observing quality of command across a variety of pitches, intuiting the difference between a bad day and a chronic problem. Beyond these, another level, the crucial, game-changing question: Will this ballplayer develop skills beyond what he's showing today? How does he project to a different level at a different age, or even just to a different ballpark in a different league?

I have no doubt that great baseball scouts learned a lot from the great scouts who came before them, and I have no doubt that a gifted executive can learn immensely from a great scout, purely by his ability to listen and communicate and absorb. At the same time, I am quite sure that the greatest talent evaluators in the game are possessed of something that is innate and ineffable. And I am genuinely concerned that the Indians don't employ any of those people — and that, in fact, Shapiro may have favored others in the organization to the point where the best evaluators left.

Take a look at the AP report of Neal Huntington being hired away by the Pirates:

Huntington formerly was the assistant general manager to the Indians' Mark Shapiro, but dropped behind vice president of baseball operations Chris Antonetti and assistant general manager John Mirabelli on the front office depth chart two years ago.

Huntington accepted a different role in 2005, Shapiro said, because Antonetti's skills were in the management and administrative side, while Huntington's were in evaluation and scouting.

"My skill set and passion were more that of an evaluator, but they never technically took me out of the front office," Huntington said. "I was exposed to some incredible things -- rebuilding an organization and being involved in every decision, every tough decision, that was made."

And from the MLB.com report:

As an adviser to Shapiro and vice president of baseball operations Chris Antonetti, Huntington was involved in nearly all personnel and staffing decisions, as well as trade acquisition discussions. He also spent the majority of his time evaluating talent on both the Minor and Major League level.

When asked about Huntington, Shapiro responded: "[Huntington is] one of our chief evaluators and one of our strongest voices on every level," Shapiro said.

Here's a guy who was the highest-ranking evaluator in the organization and possibly the best, a guy with a master's degree in sports management from UMass, and essentially, he was passed over — well treated, perhaps, but pointedly not in line for a future role as GM. So too, perhaps, was John Farrell, who upon leaving Cleveland — quite amicably, as Huntington did — was quoted to say that he was looking to have a larger voice in an organization. Farrell had been a major league pitcher and a college pitching coach, and with the Indians he served stints as Farm Director and Director of Player Development. Despite his experience and impeccable reputation, Farrell too was not viewed as the future leader of the organization.

Years earlier, there was Tony LaCava, whom the Indians hired in 2002 as national cross-checker, essentially rescuing him from the sinking-ship Montreal Expos. As the Expos very recent Farm Director, LaCava naturally was instrumental in selecting the prospects to be received in the Colon deal, which is not only Shapiro's signature trade, but arguably the most successful trade of a veteran for prospects by any GM, ever. LaCava, too, was not retained in the Indians organization, moving on to the Blue Jays as Assistant GM in 2003, just one year later, while John Mirabelli continued his string of generally disastrous drafts.

Like Huntington, LaCava is going to be a GM sooner or later, yet he wasn't good enough to be Assistant GM in Cleveland. None of these guys were given large enough roles in the organization to keep them around, and no doubt the Indians were possessed of too much executive talent to keep in-house — a nice problem to have. Still, given how things have gone since, it's telling that the prince-in-waiting anointment, and present-day "co-GM" status, went not to an ace evaluator, but instead to Antonetti, a man whose background and skill set are more or less identical to Shapiro's.

For all the talk about being open to all ideas and all viewpoints, the major player-evaluation talent in the Indians organization was basically told that being a solid administrator was more important, and that their path to bigger jobs would have to be in some other, presumably less enlightened organization — and never mind that it doesn't matter how well administered your organization is if you don't know who the best talent is. (Is it any wonder, then, that when Shapiro hires a former catcher for a manager, he then populates his coaching staff almost entirely with other former catchers? All leaders lead by example, first and foremost.)

This is not to say that an executive without a scouting background cannot be an outstanding GM, but it's noteworthy that other organizations that have gone with the "Ivy League whiz kid" GM model tend to have a "wise old baseball man" figure hanging close by, advising the gifted non-scout executive. The Red Sox had Bill Lajoie attached to Theo Epstein; Allard Baird is in that role now, while Lajoie is now advising Huntington in Pittsburgh. The Rays put Gerry Hunsicker with Andrew Friedman, and down in Texas, Jon Daniels has access to no less than John Hart and Nolan Ryan. But when non-scout-gifted-executives Shapiro and Antonetti huddle to make the big decisions, who are the wise old evaluators in the room — Charles Nagy and Jason Bere?

Later that night, at home, Adriana and Christopher discuss Visiting Day's potential. Hip-hop mogul "Massive Genius" has told Adriana that the band's demos are promising.

CHRISTOPHER: You know how I use the technique of positive visualization?

ADRIANA: I know you talk about it. You're fairly negative a lot of the time.

CHRISTOPHER: I think you should mentally prepare for the possibility that Visiting Day sucks.

ADRIANA: What?

CHRISTOPHER: I think that ... the only reason you've gotten this far with Massive is ... he wants to be in your pants.

ADRIANA: Boy, oh, boy.

CHRISTOPHER: Look, I had some experts listen to the demo ... they crapped all over it. Sorry.

ADRIANA: Who, Hesh? That old synagogue cantor?

CHRISTOPHER: Silvio. Hey, he owned rock clubs in Asbury. You heard what Squid said. A professional engineer.

ADRIANA: What about my opinion? That it's good. That it's special. This is just a way for you to keep me down.

CHRISTOPHER: That ain't fair.

ADRIANA: What's wrong with it, huh? What's wrong with Visiting Day?

CHRISTOPHER: I don't know ... but it's a problem that you don't know.

This series of articles perhaps has only demonstrated the obvious, that a club this bad — which decides in June that it must not only tank the current season but the next season at the same time — has suffered multiple failures in more than one part of the organization. In any one area, we can talk about how much control that one group of people — coaches, scouts, trainers — really had, compared to the influence of the other groups and the whims of the fates. But a systemic failure points ultimately to Shapiro, who hired and is accountable for all of those groups, and the harsh truth is that every club must contend with the whims of the fates — or fail to contend with them, as the Indians have.

Amateur scouting has been a disaster since Shapiro took over; maybe time will reveal that it was fixed two or three years ago, but maybe not. Big-league scouting has been a mixed bag, with veteran acquisitions missing a lot more often than they hit — in Barfield's case, about four times more often. The training staff has won high praise from some in the industry, but they haven't stopped the Indians from being undercut severely by injuries to a half-dozen key players in just two years — in some cases, multiple injuries and disappointing rehab processes have afflicted a single player like Jake Westbrook over and over again. The farm system has been another mixed bag, producing too many players who dominate at Triple-A but can barely perform at replacement level in the majors. If all clubs were like the Indians in this regard, those MLE formulas might look a lot different.

We had a manager whose playing-time decisions often defied any imaginable logic or reason, who thought it was important to have Ramon Vazquez on his bench rather than future 30-30 man Brandon Phillips, and who thought it was a good idea to put Ryan Garko in the outfield, with a rookie flyball pitcher on the mound — scratch that, ever — and we had a GM who let him do these things. It's true that Shapiro fired Wedge, and he may be sincere in saying that bringing in a new manager is an exciting opportunity. Even so, Shapiro made it abundantly clear that he didn't think there was any real, qualitative reason why Wedge shouldn't continue to be the manager — his exact words were, "it's a cop-out."

We had extraordinarily bad — and sometimes historically bad — bullpens in 2004, 2006, 2008 and 2009. Those volcanic fiascos were, at least, largely Shapiro's direct creations, and at most, entirely the fault of Shapiro and people who were hired by Shapiro, and who generally have not been fired by Shapiro. They have turned too many contenders into also-rans, too many decent squads into train-wrecks, and too many season ticket holders into non-customers.

The sum of these observations is this one, frightening, inescapable conclusion: Shapiro has not given us any concrete reason to believe that he knows how to put people into critical positions who are capable of evaluating, developing and coaching real talent — the kind that can thrive at the major league level. Without people in key roles who are possessed of that kind of judgment and talent, it doesn't make any difference how good your organizational processes are or how much class-acting you do. We cannot contend on a diet of trade-acquired minor leaguers and recycled starting pitchers alone. If these things weren't clear five years ago, or even one year ago, they ought to be crystal clear now.

I am just a scribe, neither scout nor coach, not a baseball executive and certainly not a former major leaguer. So I don't really know what's wrong with the Cleveland Indians. But it's a problem if Mark Shapiro doesn't know either. And as much respect for him as I have, I'm not at all convinced that he does.

Game 162: Red Sox 12, Indians 7

Ryan — Sun, 04 Oct 2009 21:59:39 -0000

More photos » by Michael Dwyer - AP

Travis Hafner hit .321/.424/.500 over the last two weeks of the season.

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It's over. Finally.

Tomo Ohka got burned for for seven earned runs in five innings, but I guess that's besides the point, for if he starts another game for the Indians, the team is heading for another season like this one. Rafael Perez, in what may have been his last appearance as member of the Indians, gave up 4 runs in just 2/3 of an inning. But, for the most part, the major player moves have happened, and whoever you've seen this month is likely who you'll see next April. I think Andy Marte bought himself another spring training, and the same with Jeremy Sowers. Kelly Shoppach will eventually be traded, but I don't think this winter is the right time to do it.

Of course, there will be a new coaching staff, and their selection should play out by the end of this month. And after that, there's free agency, which the Indians probably won't participate in, and the trade market, which they probably will take a part in. All the while we'll think back on this season as little as possible, and wish the 2010 season to get here with all haste. Thanks for sticking around until the bitter end, and may your reward be watching next year's playoff contender with the satisfaction of remembering when the groundwork was laid for it.

Next Up: A season review.

via www.fangraphs.com

Highest WPA		Lowest WPA
Andy Marte	.148	Tomo Ohka	-.520
Jhonny Peralta	.110	Chris Perez	-.125
Matt LaPorta	.061	Rafael Perez	-.115

Game 151: Tigers 3, Indians 1

Ryan — Wed, 23 Sep 2009 03:08:30 -0000

More photos » by Tony Dejak - AP

3 months ago: Cleveland Indians' Matt LaPorta, right, is tagged out by Detroit Tigers catcher Gerald Laird in the second inning of a baseball game, Tuesday, Sept. 22, 2009, in Cleveland. LaPorte tried to score from second base on a single by Trevor Crowe. (AP Photo/Tony Dejak)

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One monotonous day is followed
by another monotonous, identical day. The same
things will happen, they will happen again --
the same moments find us and leave us.

A month passes and ushers in another month.
One easily guesses the coming events;
they are the boring ones of yesterday.
And the morrow ends up not resembling a morrow anymore.

-Constantine P. Cavafy

I thought the game was over when Ryan Raburn hit a home run in the third inning. It wasn't quite over, for the Indians would score a run, but it might as well have been. The Indians have been losing in boring, monotonous regularity, a feature of an especially awful baseball team. Many of the players on this team have futures, but it seems that everyone's taking their cues from their manager, who can see his end approaching. Tonight's loss made nine in a row for the Indians, a season high

Aaron Laffey pitched very well despite a tight strike zone. After struggling in his past two starts, Laffey pitched into the seventh, leaving with the Indians just down a run, a winnable situation for a club of any offensive ability. Unfortunately, the Indians' long run came after Chris Perez gave up two runs in the eighth. Although Cleveland would have an excellent opportunity in the bottom of the inning, three runs were too much to overcome for this punchless offense.

To make matters worse, Matt LaPorta had to leave the game with a hip injury. LaPorta's "only" hitting .235/.278/.426 this month, which ranks among the best on the team. Andy Marte, who is again buried on the bench in favor of Trevor Crowe, got a couple at-bats in place of LaPorta, but I expect we'll be seeing a Chris Gimenez start tomorrow.

Next Up: Porcello vs. Masterson, 7:05 PM

via www.fangraphs.com

Highest WPA		Lowest WPA
Aaron Laffey	.214	Jhonny Peralta	-.220
Shin-Soo Choo	.109	Luis Valbuena	-.189
Jamey Carroll	.095	Asdrubal Cabrera	-.148

Game 144: Twins 6, Indians 3

Ryan — Tue, 15 Sep 2009 04:01:30 -0000

More photos » by Jim Mone - AP

Jeremy Sowers shut the Twins out through seven inning, but the bullpen imploded in the eighth.

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For seven innings the Indians played exceptional baseball, especially given the importance the game had for the Minnesota Twins. Jeremy Sowers pitched seven innings of shutout baseball, and the offense scored three runs on two home runs. Going into the eighth, it looked as through the Indians had dealt the Twins a critical blow to their playoff aspirations. Detroit had just came from behind to beat Toronto, and Minnesota was two innings away from going down 6.5 games with less than 20 games to play. The Twins have seven games left against the Tigers, but even so, there is in effect no room for error.

It was then that the Indians conveniently melted down, allowing the Twins to score six times. The disastrous eighth frame started with an Asdrubal Cabrera error on a simple backhanded play. Tony Sipp then walked Joe Mauer, bringing the tying run to the plate. No problem, for Eric Wedge had Chris Perez warming in the bullpen for this eventuality. Sipp would have stayed in had Justin Morneau been batting cleanup, but Morneau was out with an injury, so it was Michael Cuddyer at the plate, and Perez on the mound. Cuddyer blasted a game-tying three-run home run. The hilarity continued after Brendan Harris flied out for the first out of the inning; Delmon Young singled, then Matt Tolbert blooped a perfectly placed ball into shallow left field to chase Young to third. Then Lou Marson allowed a pitch to get by him to the backstop, and Young scored the go-ahead run. Jason Kubel provided the capper to the meltdown by smashing a home run into the right field upper deck.

The game doesn't really mean a whole lot to the Indians, but it was extremely depressing to see the two guys who are probably going into next season as the primary setup men completely blow a game meaningful to at least the other team.

Next Up: Carmona vs. Baker, 8:10 PM

via www.fangraphs.com

Highest WPA		Lowest WPA
Jeremy Sowers	.383	Chris Perez	-.737
Trevor Crowe	.112	Tony Sipp	-.141
Lou Marson	.073	Luis Valbuena	-.069

Cuddyer, Young, Kubel play heroes, as Twins win 6-3

Jon Marthaler — Tue, 15 Sep 2009 03:17:58 -0000

More photos » by Jim Mone - AP

Rocket Man? (AP Photo/Jim Mone)

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Seven and a half innings were inked in the scorebook, and you couldn't have found a single positive-minded Twins fan between here and Saskatoon. Carl Pavano had allowed two home runs, and Minnesota's inability to score a runner had made Jeremy Sowers look like Sandy Koufax, and the Indians led 3-0 and the Tigers had come back to win and Twins fans were flipping over to Monday Night Football.

And then. What a wonderful and then. Leading off the bottom of the eighth, Orlando Cabrera reached on a broken-bat grounder to shortstop that Asdrubal Cabrera couldn't handle. The Indians walked Joe Mauer, a sensible move given his three singles in three trips. Cleveland brought in Chris Perez, sidearming righty, to face Michael Cuddyer, who had previously earned the name "Mr. Double-Play Grounder" yet again.

Well, Perez couldn't find the plate. On a 3-1 count, he had to come over with a blazer. Cuddyer knew it. Cuddyer was ready. Cuddyer hammered the pitch deep into the retracted seats over the center-field fence, tying the ballgame.

By no means, though, was it over. Delmon Young lined a single to right-center, then alertly scampered to third on a pop-fly single down the left-field line off the bat of Matt Tolbert. That piece of baserunning paid off, as Perez uncorked a wild slider that beat the catcher to the stick side, giving Delmon a chance to hurry home with the go-ahead run.

Perez, who had previously adhered to the all-slider-all-the-time theory of pitching to Jason Kubel, got rattled and dealt the lefty a fastball. This one landed in the mitt of a joyous fan in the upper-deck seats in right field, giving the home team a 6-3 lead.

As quickly as that, the Twins had turned a three-run deficit into a three-run lead, and with Joe Nathan on the mound in the ninth, a three-run victory.

Yes, Minnesota remained five and a half games back in the AL Central, and yes, these particular heroics will be little remembered. But, for one more night, previously-depressed Twins fans like your correspondent got a chance to scream exhortations at the television, were able to jump out of chairs to joyously shout "GET OUT OF THERE!" to well-launched baseballs. What a wonderful evening.

THREE STARS:

3. Jason Kubel - A pinch-hit rocket that sealed the game.
2. Delmon Young - Alert baserunning that proved to be the winning run.
1. Michael Cuddyer - Could have hit into five other double plays, and he'd still be the first star. Game-tying, three-run homers have that effect.

Indians vs Twins coverage

At least it wasn't the NLDS

DanUpBaby — Mon, 14 Sep 2009 06:59:13 -0000

More photos » by Jeff Roberson - AP

I'm not saying that either one of us ([Chris Carpenter and the towel]) have been on too much of a high but it brings you back down to where you're supposed to be."

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Let's pull that Ryan Franklin quote again—

I'm not saying that either one of us ([the Cardinals and their fans]) have been on too much of a high but it brings you back down to where you're supposed to be."

Yeah, that sounds about right.

This mini-crisis is a great time to considerwhere we are now as to where we were back in April—now that the Cardinals are not completely invincible it's worth thinking about. The bullpen, for instance:

Where we were then: I couldn't find a quote quite representative enough, so if I may channel myself, circa March—

I love this bullpen. Love love love love. There are about a million players in it, and they're all young and cheap, and maybe we should trade Ryan Franklin for a season ticket package or just put him on a bus somewhere with all the other old people so that I can watch all these cost-controlled, thoroughbred right-handers compete for the closer's role. These guys are so crazy and awesome that they flip out ALL the time.

Where we are now:

I'm not saying that either one of us ([the Cardinals relief pitchers, opposing batters]) have been on too much of a high but it brings you back down to where you're supposed to be."

The Cardinals' vaunted relief Whiz Kids have seen attrition from both sides; on one, Jason Motte struggles with throwing the ball past opposing hitters and Kyle McClellan has trouble throwing it near them, and on the other several pitchers are throwing the ball for other teams.

Taken in isolation I can't really argue with either of the major deals that siphoned off relief depth; Mark Worrell and (erstwhile throw-in) Luke Gregerson was a small price to pay for what seemed like an upgrade at shortstop, and Chris Perez and Jess Todd was the going rate for a guy who, for a brief time, seemed like he would upgrade multiple positions at once.

But I don't think either of these trades can be seen as a win for Mozeliak, or even as an extenuating-circumstances draw; these are flat-out misses. In the Khalil Greene deal—my favorite of the two moves, even now, for its ingenuity—Mozeliak bet some of his bullpen strength on a cheap way to upgrade for this year. In that way it resembles a deadline deal, only with a full year of that deadline-deal magic (you know, Al, it really does); there's no potential future benefit to hedge against the flags flying forever. I'd argue that it was a gamble the Cardinals were justified in making, but so far they've gambled wrong on both sides; Khalil Greene hasn't turned into Khalil Greene, and Luke Gregerson—78 K in 65 innings, a .434 OPS against righties—has turned into Russ Springer.

The DeRosa deal has to be looked at in its very fleeting context—after the Greene deal and the Motte/McClellan problems were noticeable, before the Holliday and Lugo deals rendered his positional versatility basically useless. That they cancel each other out seems only fitting for a deal that's a complex win or a complex loss.

The Greene deal meant that the Cardinals could no longer trade from the bottom of their relief deck; the fungible relievers weren't quite so fungible anymore. But their subsequent dealings might be more damaging to the DeRosa rationale; as a straight replacement at third base DeRosa, especially the one they got, was a major offensive improvement but not a worldbeater. During his time with the Cardinals he's been worth a little less than a win over Thurston's year-to-date offensive levels. (Defense—charitably—has been a wash.) That's a good upgrade, as far as deadline deals go, but it's not the one they paid for.

The upgrade they paid for was three-headed—they could put him at third against right handers and pair him with Khalil Greene to spell Skip Schumaker or the Duncan/Ankiel Platoon of Despair that was stuck in left field. Then they traded for Julio Lugo to spell Skip Schumaker; they they traded for Matt Holliday to replace the P.O.D. Then he was the starting third baseman. I appreciate not having to watch Joe Thurston every day, but Chris Perez has proven what we really knew anyway—he's the best of the Cardinals young relievers, and he was traded at a moment when the Cardinals realized they needed them more than they'd thought.

Now the Cardinals have to worry about Ryan Franklin, who is not, it can be said, at this point, finding some new talent level. Over the course of his last two seasons as a Cardinal he's proven himself to be a Pretty Good reliever. Unless some new information comes to light in the next two weeks, that's probably what he's going to be. It's tough having him as your top right-hander, but that's different from having to worry about him if you carry a lead into the ninth inning—most relievers will save most games most of the time. He's not going to go oh-fer a series. The problem is getting the lead to him with the pitchers that are left.

But if you're worried that Franklin might be totally cooked now, your real concern ought to be the rotation—it's Franklin writ large, but with much better players. Certainly Wainwright might really be this good; certainly Carpenter was once this good and this healthy; certainly Joel Pineiro, uh, has had a fine season. But all at once? That's how World Series teams are made, to be honest—lots of players peaking at once, some who you never thought had it in them. But it's only clear that those players kept it together long enough to see their Norm Cash years through in hindsight.

Tonight, of course, Todd Wellemeyer—the stopper—makes it clear that there's no need to worry.

Game 141: Royals 2, Indians 1

afh4 — Sat, 12 Sep 2009 02:49:25 -0000

More photos » by Mark Duncan - AP

"Flo" from Progressive threw out the first pitch.

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Justin Masterson pitched in and out of trouble all night, inducing two double plays when his back was against the wall Despite his four walks, Masterson held the Royals to just one run over 6. Zack Greinke was his usual magical self through seven innings but Trey Hillman pulled him at just 102 pitches and one earned run; Greinke's last start was a 120+ pitch performance against the Angels. Tony Sipp and Chris Perez were brilliant through 3 innings of relief.

The Royals bullpen is truly atrocious and Hillman handed the ball to Kyle Farnsworth and his 5.00+ ERA for the final two innings. He worked a clean slate in the eigth but then characteristically started to come unglued in the ninth. After putting two on, he gave up a single to Jhonny Peralta; Skinner flashed back to games that mattered and sent Cabrera home despite it being a short single into LF, where David DeJesus and his strong arm waited. Cabrerea was cut down at the plate meaning Travis Hafner would have to get a hit for the Indians to win the game in regulation. Hafner waved at strike three and the game went to extras.

Going with Perez in the top of the ninth was, if I'm not mistaken, against the book, in that the closer is expected in the top of the ninth in the tie game of a home game. When Wedge stuck with Perez for the tenth, it was an unusual, though certainly not indefensible decision. I'm not much for this whole line of speculation but if you're looking for the "denying Wood games to finish" evidence, this is about as close as we've gotten. Chris made it a tactical moot point by plowing through the Royals for a second straight inning to make a final line of 2.0 IP, 1 BB and 3K. Since joining the Indians, Perez (Mercedes?) has 32 strikeouts in 25.2 innings. These are essentially the same strikeout numbers as in St. Louis; the difference is that Perez has halved his walks.

The Royals turned to Jamey Wright to try to hold the Indians at bay in the tenth. If it seems like I'm foreshadowing that Wright would lose the game, that's because I was writing this along with the game, waiting to go for dinner, and I was hoping that was the case. It wasn't, and Valbuena-LaPorta-Marte went 1-2-3 against the suddenly indomitable Jamey Wright. In the top of the eleventh, Wedge again stayed away from Wood and went with Jose Veras, who somehow worked a scoreless inning.

Frankly, I lost interest in this an hour ago. I mean, seriously who's watching this? Sigh. Come on. Somebody hit a home run. Who's coming up? Marson, Brantley, and Cabrera. Who's my best shot there? I told these people I'd meet them for dinner an hour ago. Alright, Brantley took a walk. Come on. Just hit a double or something, Astro. It's still Jamey Wright on the mound. How is this still going on?

In the eleventh, Asdrubal grounded out to move Brantley to second; after an intentional walk to Choo, Peralta stepped in and singled to left! JP singled! And...Brantley was out at home on the throw from DeJesus. That's twice, Skinner.

Top 12. Still Veras (seriously, what?). Homerun Miguel Olivo. Well, alright.

So, that's it. Miguel Olivo took Jose Veras yard in the top of the 12th and the Indians lost. What has happened to us?

Game 140: Rangers 10, Indians 0

afh4 — Wed, 09 Sep 2009 21:09:44 -0000

More photos » by Tony Dejak - AP

Will Fausto ever get fixed?

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It took the Texas Rangers less than 24 hours to sweep the Indians and make much of the pitching "progress" that the Tribe had been clinging to start to look more than a bit shaky. Last night, we had to watch Aaron Laffey and Carlos Carrasco get shelled, as well as witness Jess Todd's continued unraveling and then, finally and most despicably, Chris Perez didn't even look inhuman. Today, the pain kept coming as Fausto Carmona lasted only 0.2 IP and surrendered 5 ER. In the last two days the Indians have watched key parts in their 2010 rotation turn in outings that match the shortest starts of their careers, with Carmona's 0.2 standing alone in his illustrious career and Laffey's 3.1 IP performance matching his explosion in Detroit this year.

There were no bright spots in today's game, as the Indians managed only six hits and only Luis V. managed extra bases, with his double in the 8th. To add insult to injury, Rafael Perez got demolished again, going only 0.1 IP and allowing 5 runs to cross the plate, 3 earned. Perez' ERA has now ballooned to 7.94 and I wonder if there's still a place for him in the Cleveland organization this winter.

No matter, though, the Indians losing is old hat. The real problem today was the lineup and that's coming from somebody who normally cares very little about the lineup. However, when Eric Wedge filled in Niuman Romero as the first basemen today he finally crossed the line. I am literally seething about this:

He cannot possibly believe that Romero, a player who managed a .626 OPS in Columbus this year and who has hit righties even worse than he has hit lefties this year, gave the Indians a better chance to win today than did either Andy Marte, who has always pounded righties despite his handedness, or Jamey Carroll, who's having a near career year at the plate.
He undermined the front office and developmental staff who just yesterday had Ross Atkins explaining Jordan Brown's non-callup by saying: "With Andy Marte, Matt LaPorta and four catchers on the roster, there just weren’t plate appearances for Jordan. That is the most important aspect of the decision." Hey, Ross! What do you know, Eric found four at-bats that were just lying around! There is literally no argument, zero, that the Indians should have Romero taking at-bats in Cleveland instead of Brown. There is plenty of argument, being made cogently elsewhere on the site, that at-bats should be taken by LaPorta, Marte, Toregas, Shoppach, Gimenez or Marson before they are taken by Brown. But there is no justification, none, for giving the at-bats that ought to be going to LaPorta, Marte, Toregas, Shoppach, Gimenez or Marson to Romero. Wedge has made Atkins look like a fool and, more importantly, he's made him look like a liar to Brown.

Wedge is a rogue agent on this one: this cannot possibly be the front office's plan and, frankly, I think it represents the most obvious act of insubordination out of Wedge that I've ever seen. As a manager, Eric has always wielded the lineup card as a weapon, using it to punish players and seemingly to send messages to the front office about what will and will not fly on his watch (specifically: Marte will not fly). This, though, this is unbelievable. If Shapiro is not excoriating Wedge right now, I'm disappointed.

Wedge ought to have already been fired for trotting Romero out there. Giving Marte major league at-bats is critical at this point as the Indians need to gather as much information as possible before the offseason. The decision on Marte is going to reverberate to a decision on Peralta and also to decisions on guys like Brown. Wedge stupidly wasting a game watching Romero isn't just stupid, it's hurting the team.

The only upside here is that the Rangers are only 1.5 back of Boston now.

Wedge does things that have no conceivable explanation, large and small.

-Jay