SB Nation - Bryan Anderson

B Prospects, Plan Bs, DWIs

DanUpBaby — Mon, 14 Dec 2009 11:00:35 -0000

John Sickels released his Cardinals Top Twenty over the weekend, giving us an SBN-approved list of prospects to salivate over. I can't deprive him the pageview, but suffice it to say that the Cardinals' remaining minor league strength, a large pool of Sickels's ubiquitous "Grade C" guys, is not the most exciting thing to talk about. Go over there and read it, because then I'm going to niggle with it in bullet point format.

It's awful to see Pete Kozma rated 16th, but I can't exactly argue with the thought process that landed him there. I can almost see the thought process behind promoting Kozma, and position players in general, aggressively through high-A. Palm Beach is a hitter's nightmare, and the Springfield Cardinals play in the Texas League; it's a much closer step than it typically is, and probably should be, and had it worked out it would have been a nice confidence boost for a guy who's been not-Rick-Porcello from day one.

That said, I don't get why they kept him there while he endured an unbelievably terrible season. Kozma, who Sickels reminds us was drafted as a "makeup" guy, didn't hit; he wasn't sure-handed afield. At least when Tyler Greene, who managed to climb past Kozma in what is presumably his last year as a prospect, flailed around the minor leagues he stole bases like crazy (113 SB, 15 CS) and hit a few home runs to show that the tools were intact. Kozma wasn't a tools guy; he was drafted on the presumption that he would adjust well to adversity, to whatever role was required of him. I expect a bounceback season of some kind, but the question with Kozma has always been how high that last bounce will be.

The exciting news is that Sickels is higher on Robert Stock than any other source to this point—number four on the Cardinals' list, ahead of Daryl Jones, for the usual reasons: if his bat holds up, he's the total catching prospect package, and if it doesn't he's a hard-throwing pitcher who can kind of hit. Two, two, two prospects in one! I was as excited to watch Stock pick apart the Appalachian League as anybody else, but since Niko Vasquez I've learned to resist the temptation to throw out small samples of at-bats when the season-wide total is so small. Stock may have struggled in just 24 at-bats in the Midwest League, but when that's the difference between a .936 OPS and an .857 OPS for a guy whose bat has as much uncertainty as it does upside it advises some caution in using his short-season debut to forecast future greatness.
While we're on the subject of catchers, Steven Hill was perhaps the biggest surprise of the whole top twenty for me-his .282/.333/.470 line in the Texas League as a 24 year-old earned him the spot just ahead of Pete Kozma on the list. What I'm about to say makes me very uncomfortable. I was an early Bryan Anderson skeptic, and I don't think it's beating my own drum to say that I had him out of my mental top five before other people did. But Steven Hill is a year and a half older than Anderson, and has his own fatal bat flaws; Anderson may have less power than his pitcher, on nights when he's catching Adam Wainwright, but Hill's high-strikeouts/high-average/low-walks routine is a recipe for Major League disaster, and he's apparently even worse behind the plate. I hate to say it, but we might have officially begun to underrate Bryan Anderson.
He's still got no chance of ever starting here, ever, and I'll ban anybody what says different, but I like the decision to list Mark Hamilton at the back of the list. He did it in two hitters' leagues, but an OBP-heavy .927 OPS in the high minors is no mean feat. (And he, too, is six months younger than Steve Hill.) If the Cardinals have any interest in keeping the guy it might have made sense to give him more than a single start in left field, where he could platoon with Allen Craig on a team with less of its future wrapped up in competing right this instant.

It's true, though: the Cardinals have a wealth of guys who are, in the vaguest way possible, interesting. Relievers who might be useful if they learn that strikes and balls aren't called at random? There's Francisco Samuel, owner of a legitimate high-90s fastball and a walk rate that just missed touching one batter an inning, and Tyler Norrick, whose strikeouts-to-hits ratio against lefties—which as fake stats go is both inanely compartmentalized and entertaining—was 2.5:1, and that's just the wild-fireballers nearest the major leagues. Potential fourth outfielders? Jon Jay, Tyler Henley. Offensive-minded catchers with terrible defensive reputations? Hey, we've got three a-those.

You get the idea—these are misfit toys, but eventually the Cardinals will find off-label uses for some of them.

This is extremely interesting timing, given the imminent and uncertain timing of Boras/Holliday's decision on the Cardinals' official offer—over at Play a Hard 9 there's an interesting graph of possible Plan Bs should things not go the Cardinals way. What I doubt in the graph is not that the thought of Miguel Tejada playing third gives Future Redbirds godfather Erik nightmares but that the Cardinals will stick mainly to Allen Craig in left should Holliday leave for greener pastures.

Craig might have a good year, but the symbolic value among the DeWallet set won't be lost on ownership or management; nobody at third base, short of Scott Rolen with a bionic shoulder, is going to make fans forget that the Protect Albert spot is being filled by a rookie making $400,000 a year. And it's simply too easy to use Craig without starting him; as the small end of a platoon he could get his feet wet without having to be the Guy Who Isn't Matt Holliday. U.S.S. Mariner has it "third-hand" that Seattle and Baltimore are talking about Luke Scott, erstwhile Astros slugger. A guy like that would make a lot of sense, should the Cardinals find themselves with a Lego-sized vacuum.

That said, my dark horse candidate for surprise left fielder come this April is, more and more, Johnny Damon. He wasn't offered arbitration, so he won't cost the Cardinals one of what looks like a bounty of draft picks, he fills a hole, Guy In Front of Pujols, that's been assumed vacant nearly as long as Guy Behind Pujols, and he's a guy with a broad base of pretty good skills. I don't know how fond I am of blowing the easiest spot on the team to upgrade on a 36 year-old left fielder coming off a huge season fraught with reasonable park effects concerns, but I can see it happening.

And finally, speaking of Miguel Tejada playing third base, there is Joe Strauss's pre-tweeted breaking news, that David Freese was arrested on DWI charges. We don't know the whole story yet, and I'd hate to pass complete moral judgment on it without that, but suffice it to say that this is a really stupid thing to do.

In the end they're athletes, and should be in the news, for the most part, based on what they do on the baseball field*; at the same time, it's not unfair to hold a baseball player—or a golfer, I guess, to turn subtext into text—to the same standards for generalized disappointment you do any other human being you happen to come across. This is bad; I hope either that there is some mitigating circumstance, though I can't imagine one, or that he is prepared to deal with it in the future, before the consequences get worse, far worse, than a really disappointing Twitter-tease. I don't think, and have never thought, that I as a sportswriter, or we as baseball fans, can say much more about something like this than that.

That said, we don't yet know how this is going to play out on the baseball field; as a ballplayer, Freese, cheap, useful, is an important cog in any free agent machinations.

St. Louis Cardinals Top 20 Prospects for 2010

John Sickels — Sun, 13 Dec 2009 04:15:49 -0000

More photos » by Tom Gannam - AP

Blake Hawksworth, official winner of the 2009 Coolest Name In Major League Baseball Contest (AP Photo/Tom Gannam)

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St. Louis Cardinals Top 20 Prospects for 2010.

All grades are EXTREMELY PRELIMINARY and subject to change. Don't get too worried about exact rankings at this point, especially once you get beyond the Top 10. Grade C+/C guys are pretty interchangeable depending on what you want to emphasize. Complete reports on these and over 1,000 other players will be in the 2010 Baseball Prospect Book, now available for pre-order, shipping on February 2^nd!

1) Shelby Miller, RHP, Grade B: I love the ceiling, but we need to see how he adapts to pro ball, if he can stay healthy, etc. etc.

2) Jaime Garcia, LHP, Grade B-; I like him and the Tommy John recovery looks like it went well, but I hope they let him build up his stamina rather than pushing him too quickly.

3) Lance Lynn, RHP, Grade B-: Projects as an inning-eater number three starter type. K/BB in the Texas League wasn't great, could use some Triple-A time.

4) Robert Stock, C, Grade B-: I preferred him as a pitcher in college, but letting him hit makes sense: if he makes it, you have a power-hitting catcher with good defense. If he doesn't hit, you just move him back to the mound. Could be one of the best catching prospects in the game by July.

5) Daryl Jones, OF, Grade B-: I keep expecting power to develop but there's no sign of it. Cutting him some slack on '09 numbers due to injuries.

6) Eduardo Sanchez, RHP, Grade B-: Underrated power arm needs more attention, could be a major league closer if command sharpens a bit more.

7) Allen Craig, OF, Grade B-: I really like the bat, just needs to play.

8) David Freese, 3B, Grade C+: Almost a B-, injury was badly timed, turns 27 in April, looks like a .270 hitter with 20 homer power, solid glove.

9) Jon Jay, OF, Grade C+: I just like the guy. Always seems to rip the ball when I see him. I'd love to have him as a fourth outfielder.

10) Joe Kelly, RHP, Grade C+: Nasty power sinking stuff, college results didn't match arm, this could/should change in pro ball but he was erratic in the NY-P, too, so maybe it won't.

11) Dan Descalso, 2B, Grade C+: He was great in the Texas League but went back to being mediocre after promotion.

12) Tyler Henley, OF, Grade C+. Similar to Jay....perhaps a bit more pop but a bit less speed, another guy who could be very good as a fourth outfielder.

13) Blake Hawksworth, RHP, Grade C: Deserves credit fighting back from injury. Can be a nice middle reliever.

14) Tyler Greene, SS, Grade C: Lots of speed, some power, good tools, still held back by spotty plate discipline. Could hit .280 with 20 homers some year, then .180 the next year.

15) Steven Hill, C-1B, Grade C: Remember Todd Greene? The short guy with tons of power who could play outfield, first base, catch a bit, but who couldn't draw walks? This is his clone.

16) Pete Kozma, SS, Grade C: If he'd gone to Wichita State, this would be his junior season. Too young to write off just yet.

17) Francisco Samuel, RHP, Grade C: Blistering stuff, with no idea where it's going.

18) Scott Bittle, RHP, Grade C: He could move through the system very quickly, if his arm doesn't disintegrate like the crew of the USS Exeter after being exposed to the Omega IV biological weapon virus.

19) Mark Hamilton, 1B, Grade C: Remember him? Looked like an injury-plagued bust but rebounded this year, got a place on the 40-man. Don't see how he fits in the lineup other than as trade bait.

20) Tyler Norrick, LHP, Grade C: Another 40-man roster addition, power lefty arm with a high strikeout rate.

OTHERS (All Grade C): Matt Adams, 1B; Nick Additon, LHP; Bryan Anderson, C; Adron Chambers, OF; Kyle Conley, OF; Roberto De La Cruz, 3B; Scott Gorgen, RHP; Trey Hearne, RHP; Virgil Hill, OF; Ben Jukich, LHP; Blake King, RHP; David Kopp, RHP; Casey Mulligan, RHP; Adam Ottavino, RHP; Tommy Pham, OF; Adam Reifer, RHP; Shane Robinson, OF; Fernando Salas, RHP; Scott Schneider, RHP; Niko Vasquez, INF; P.J. Walters, RHP.

Trades and graduations thinned this system out fast compared to last year, however, I actually like it better than these grades imply.

Shelby Miller and Robert Stock could both be B+ or A- prospects a year from now, once we get a full season of data to look at. Garcia and Lynn could both be in the starting rotation in 2011 and both have a reasonable chance to be very good pitchers. Sanchez has closer potential. Jones, Craig, and Freese could all develop into regular players under the right circumstances and at worst could be good role players, while Jay, Descalso, Henley, Greene, and Hill could all be useful if deployed properly. Jon Jay remains a personal favorite for reasons that I find hard to quantify.

There is a large batch of arms who could be very good relievers if they throw strikes (Kelly, Samuel, Norrick, King, Reifer) as well as an assortment of pitchability types.

The system needs more impact talent, but Miller and Stock should help provide that, and there's a huge batch of Grade C depth. There were about 10 other guys I could easily have written up as Grade C prospects with potential.

Rule 5: You do talk about the Rule 5 draft

DanUpBaby — Thu, 19 Nov 2009 11:00:18 -0000

Nothing exemplifies the Hot Stove season quite like worrying about the Rule 5 draft. Most of the players don't stick it out all year; most of the ones that do are eventually traded for Ronnie Belliard or Blaine Boyer; and most of the time it would be completely absurd to spend time thinking about this. Fangraphs won't return my calls, but according to my new WARP/seconds-in-your-limited-lifespan converter most of these guys peak around fifteen, twenty seconds. (Brian Barton, simply because his nickname was briefly "Enunciate It", broke the curve at forty-five.)

But it is November, and I already did a VEB Theater, and though it kills me to say it there is no baseball going on at Busch Stadium. So let us take solace in the dim light of this good news: the Cardinals will probably not lose a useful player to the Rule 5 draft this year. In approximate order of near-term usefulness:

ALLEN CRAIG
WHY WE SHOULDN'T BE THINKING ABOUT HIM: He doesn't really have a position; he's a minor league slugger who played in the PCL, so his numbers are vaguely suspicious; he strikes out too much and doesn't walk enough.
WHY WE WILL ANYWAY: He's looking more likely every day to spend significant time in left field in 2010, and there's a non-zero chance that he has a hot month while David Freese burns and Tony La Russa is suddenly convinced he can play third. He's never crushed a league, but he's also been extremely consistent level to level—in his three full seasons he's always hit .300, always hit 20 home runs, and always managed an OBP over .365. If the Cardinals find a left-handed outfielder they're comfortable with he is the ideal short side of a platoon.

JON JAY
WHY WE SHOULDN'T BE THINKING ABOUT HIM: He might be the platonic representative of the Cardinals' more conservative draft inclinations—he's almost guaranteed to be a likable fourth outfielder, but he's almost guaranteed not to be a likable third outfielder.
WHY WE WILL ANYWAY: He cowrote the Federalist Papers, and every dollar the Cardinals don't have to spend on a fourth outfielder who can play great defense and get on base a little is a dollar they can spend on the player who is consigning him to the bench. If pressed into service on a full-time basis he probably wouldn't hit much worse than Harold Ramis did last year, although the only thing we have to suggest his defense would be as good—I have the distinct impression that he was drafted as a defensive "tweener"—are a year and a half of minor league numbers.

ADAM OTTAVINO
WHY WE SHOULDN'T BE THINKING ABOUT HIM: His career minor league ERA is 4.15, and his career minor league BB/9 is even higher. In the high minors he's basically been Todd Wellemeyer.
WHY WE WILL ANYWAY: He's a first rounder, so we have to think about him, up to and including the moment in which he crushes our dreams. We were only allowed to stop thinking about Chance Caple last June. In addition to that, Ottavino's always been a Stuff Guy, and not a Results Guy; this is good for him, and bad for us. lboros's expert scouting report set me back about three years, as far as forgetting about him as a front-line guy goes.

In any case, he's too good a Rule 5 pick to not put him here. He's exactly the kind of starter who gets drafted, pitches fifty innings for a non-contender in the Brad Thompson role, and spends a third of the season on a rehab assignment for Rule 5 Syndrome. In fact, if he were playing for another team, we would be including him on a list of players for whom the Cardinals should dump Brad Thompson on the eve of the Rule 5 draft.

TYLER NORRICK
WHY WE SHOULDN'T BE THINKING ABOUT HIM: The Cardinals have Trever Miller and the Diner signed through 2010, so for once we don't need to worry about LOOGY free talent. He walked nearly seven batters per nine innings last year.
WHY WE WILL ANYWAY: He's probably better than Carmen Cali. Against lefties, his strikeouts-to-hits ratio was 2.5, which is awesome. His first name is Floyd, which is awesome, too.

DARYL JONES
WHY WE SHOULDN'T BE THINKING ABOUT HIM: He followed up 2008's breakout campaign with a breakdown campaign, treading water in AA Springfield. He's not a good 2010 option, even though we were hoping he would be.
WHY WE WILL ANYWAY: He's DJ Tools! He runs like a gazelle! He leaps like a gazelle! He no longer hits like a gazelle! He's the top hitting prospect on a team that doesn't have any, and he's got a skill-set that's become more popular in the outfield corners in recent years. He's not nearly as MLB-ready as Brian Barton was, but somebody might grab him anyway.

BRYAN ANDERSON
WHY WE SHOULDN'T BE THINKING ABOUT HIM: I don't think anybody's thought about him since last March.
WHY WE WILL ANYWAY: You remember Charles Cutler, who we all watched fly up the prospect lists this year with a great high-average low-power season in the low minors? Bryan Anderson is five months younger than Charles Cutler. Anderson was rushed through the system, but until going down with injuries this year he had displayed his one tool, hitting for average, at every spot. So far he's stuck at catcher.

He probably shouldn't be Molina's back-up this year, if the Cardinals have any long-term plans for him—because he's still only 23—but he's interesting enough at a position where offense is at such a premium that if keeping him on the roster were contingent to, ah, keeping him on the roster, some club would do it.

FRANCISCO SAMUEL
WHY WE SHOULDN'T BE THINKING ABOUT HIM: Adam Ottavino's career walk rate, which is a concern, is a little more than half of Francisco Samuel's walk rate. I have nothing else to say about that.
WHY WE WILL ANYWAY: It takes exactly two good weeks for our opinion to change about middle relievers, and the Cardinals traded every single righty relief prospect who was ahead of him on the depth chart before 2009.

MARK HAMILTON
WHY WE SHOULDN'T BE THINKING ABOUT HIM:

WHY WE WILL ANYWAY: After threatening to join Mike Ferris in the annals of great college sluggers who didn't do anything in the Cardinals system he was nearly as impressive as Allen Craig in an abbreviated season spent between AA and AAA. It seems like we've been thinking about Hamilton a lot longer, but they're the same age, and Hamilton's hitting prowess is less BA dependent. He might be the most underappreciated player in the Cardinals' system.

If something were to happen to—no. No. For the Cardinals Hamilton will never, ever, ever, ever play regularly, ever, don't even consider the possibility, but for another team in the Rule 5 draft he could be Chris Shelton.

Washington Nationals' Drew Storen In AFL Action Friday.

Ed Chigliak — Sat, 24 Oct 2009 16:01:39 -0000

More photos » by Gerald Herbert - AP

6 months ago: Washington Nationals assistant general manager and vice president of baseball operations Mike Rizzo, right, introduces pitcher Drew Storen, the team's first-round draft pick and 10th pick overall in the baseball draft during a news conference at Nationals Stadium in Washington, on Wednesday, June 10, 2009. (AP Photo/Gerald Herbert)

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It took Drew Storen just 13 pitches to plow through the away team's last five outs in a long Arizona Fall League game Friday afternoon between Storen's Phoenix Desert Dogs and the visiting Surprise Rafters. The Washington Nationals' second first-round pick, taken 10th overall in the 2009 MLB First-Year Player Draft out of Stanford, Storen was called upon to get the Desert Dogs out of bases-loaded one-out jam in the eighth, and though he let one run in on a sac fly on the first pitch he threw to left-handed hitting Cardinals' catching prospect Bryan Anderson, (who was ranked 5th overall in St. Louis' system by Baseball America before this season), the Nationals' 6'2'' right-handed reliever allowed just the one run to cross when he induced a two-out groundout in the next AB to end the Rafters' eighth.

In the top of the ninth, Storen struck out Daryl Jones, (ranked 7th overall in the Cards' organization by Baseball America), with three pitches, two called strikes and a third swinging, before back to back groundouts ended a quick 10-pitch frame. All told, after three hours and twenty minutes, when the Desert Dogs/Rafters game ended, 27 runs had scored on 30 hits, 4 HR's, 6 doubles and 1 triple, and two errors had been committed, one by each squad. Washington Nationals' first base prospect Chris Marrero was Phoenix's DH in this one, finishing 1 for 5 with a run scored and an RBI, as the only other DC prospect in action.

• Storen's line: 1.2 IP, 0 H, 0 ER, 1 K, 13 pitches, 10 strikes.

• Storen/AFL Stats - (0-0, 0.00 ERA), 4 G, 4.2 IP, 5 H, 2 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 5 K's, .263 BAA.

• Marrero/AFL Stats - 11 for 28, .393 AVG, 3 2B, 2 HR, 6 RBI's, .500 OBP, .714 SLG, 1.214 OPS.

• Final Score - Rafters 15, Desert Dogs 12. - MLB.com's GameDay.

Desert Dogs now 6-4.

(ed. note - "Next game is a night game, tonight (Sat. 10/24) with the Scottsdale Scorpions, who feature prospects from the Rockies', Giants', Pirates', Phillies' and D-Backs' systems. Game time 9:35 pm EST.)

St. Louis Cardinals Top 20 PRE-SEASON Prospects in Review

John Sickels — Wed, 12 Aug 2009 13:00:12 -0000

More photos » by Wilfredo Lee - AP

St. Louis Cardinals outfielder Colby Rasmus (AP Photo/Wilfredo Lee)

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St. Louis Cardinals Top 20 Pre-Season Prospects in Review

This list was originally published January 4th, 2009. This is a REVIEW of the PRE-SEASON list for 2009, not a revision of that list. This is a REVIEW of the old list. The first grade listed is the OLD GRADE.

1) Colby Rasmus, OF, Grade A-: Hitting .246/.304/.412 for the Cardinals. He's just scratching the surface and I think he's going to be excellent in the medium and long runs.

2) Brett Wallace, 3B, Grade A-: Traded to Oakland, hitting a combined .285/.360/.426 this year between Double-A and Triple-A. Power production has been less than expected, but I still believe in his bat overall.

3) Chris Perez, RHP, Grade B+: 4.17 ERA with 44/20 K/BB in 37 major league innings. Traded to Indians. Could still be a closer if he can sharpen his command a bit more.

4) Daryl Jones, OF, Grade B: Hitting .283/.367/.376 for Double-A Springfield. Power has disappeared this year, reducing his stock somewhat though tools and youth still positives.

5) Jess Todd, RHP, Grade B-: 2.04 ERA with 66/13 K/BB in 53 innings, 40 hits in Triple-A. Traded to Indians. Nice relief combination with Perez.

6) Jon Jay, OF, Grade B-: Hitting .266/.329/.363 with 17 steals in Triple-A. BABIP is lower this year, and a lot of his value is tied up in batting average.

7) Jason Motte, RHP, Grade C+: 5.67 ERA with 34/18 K/BB in 40 innings in the major league pen. He is capable of better.

8) Bryan Anderson, C, Grade C+: Hitting .243/.293/.399 in Triple-A. I was worried about Sean Burroughs Disease and it looks like that could be happening here. Season ended early due to shoulder surgery.

9) Mitchell Boggs, RHP, Grade C+: 4.83 ERA with 58/32 K/BB in 76 innings in Triple-A, but 3.29 ERA with 25/16 K/BB in 27 major league innings. Good arm, but command remains wobbly and that ERA is better than the components, which won't last.

10) Jamie Garcia, LHP, Grade C+: Rehabbing from Tommy John.

11) Pete Kozma, SS, Grade C+: Hitting .215/.287/.286 for Springfield, struggling with Double-A transition. Lack of power is hampering him. Still young enough to improve.

12) David Freese, 3B,Grade C+: Hitting .290/.356/.439 in Triple-A, coming back from injury. Could still be a good player.

13) Adam Reifer, RHP, Grade C+: 5.03 ERA with 43/19 K/BB in 39 innings for Class A Palm Beach, 15 saves. Still has good K/IP ratio, but command hasn't been great and he's giving up a lot more hits this year.

14) Allen Craig, 3B, Grade C+: Hitting .309/.364/.513 in Triple-A. Continues to mash the ball.

15) Lance Lynn, RHP, Grade C+: 3.13 ERA with 83/35 K/BB in 104 innings in Double-A. Living up to expectations so far.

16) Niko Vasquez, SS, Grade C+: Ugh....197/.295/.250 for Quad Cities, .205/.297/.280 for Batavia in the NY-P. Totally failing to live up to expectations following strong '08 debut.

17) Clayton Mortensen, RHP, Grade C+: 4.11 ERA with 87/41 K/BB in 116 innings in Triple-A. Traded to Oakland. Still looks like inning-eater type.

18) Francisco Samuel, RHP, Grade C+: 5.83 ERA with 50/40 K/BB in 42 innings in Double-A, 32 hits, 22 saves. Strong K/IP and low hit rate demonstrate good stuff, but command has been poor.

19) Fernando Salas, RHP, Grade C+: 6.59 ERA with 9/6 K/BB in 14 innings after being promoted to Triple-A. Overall numbers at three levels are 4.85, 17/8 K/BB in 26 innings. Undistinguished performance after excellent numbers in Double-A last year.

20) Richard Castillo, RHP, Grade C+: 4.17 ERA with 82/59 K/BB in 119 innings, 131 hits in the Florida State League. Sleeper pick not really impressing at this point.

21) Deryk Hooker, RHP, Grade C+: 4.01 ERA with 36/14 K/BB in 43 innings, 34 hits in the New York-Penn League. Mediocre performance, still very young.

22) Roberto De La Cruz, 3B, Grade C+: Tools monster hitting .202/.250/.250 in the Gulf Coast League. Cost $1.1 million, and so far is failing to live up to reputation as a player with offensive polish. Very young of course at age 17.

23) Shane Peterson, OF, Grade C+: Traded to Oakland. Hitting combined .299/.365/.434 on the season between Palm Beach, Springfield, and Midland. Showing some speed with 12 swipes in 13 attempts but not a ton of power.

24) P.J. Walters, RHP, Grade C+: 4.24 ERA with 91/29 K/BB in 91 innings in Triple-A, has a 9.56 ERA in the majors with a 14/9 K/BB in 16 innings, 21 hits, and a 1.62 GO/AO. Strikeout/ground ball combination is interesting.

Trades have reduced the talent depth in the system this year and the 2010 list will look a lot different than this one. Large mass of Grade C+ types producing mixed results, which is to be expected. Lynn looks like I underrated him a lot, while I overrated Jay and Reifer. I'm growing increasingly concerned about the bats of Kozma and Anderson.

MLB Trade Rumors: Roy Halladay To The Cardinals??

raygu — Thu, 09 Jul 2009 13:30:08 -0000

More photos » by Frank Franklin II - AP

5 months ago: Toronto Blue Jays starting pitcher Roy Halladay delivers a pitch during the first inning of a baseball game against the New York Yankees on Saturday, July 4, 2009, at Yankee Stadium in New York. (AP Photo/Frank Franklin II)

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Joe Strauss from the St. Louis Post Dispatch tweeted last night that a Cardinals club official responded with the following when asked about the Cardinals interest in Roy Halladay:

Asked about the price tag for Halladay, a club source said: "Give Ricciardi all our minor-league rosters and let him circle any 5 names."

Check out the Baseball Prospectus pre-season top 11 prospects list created by Kevin Goldstein after the jump:

Five-Star Prospects
1. Colby Rasmus, CF
2. Brett Wallace, 3B
Four-Star Prospects
3. Chris Perez, RHP
4. Daryl Jones, LF
Three-Star Prospects
5. Jess Todd, RHP
6. Adam Reifer, RHP
7. Bryan Anderson, C
8. Jaime Garcia, LHP
9. Lance Lynn, RHP
10. Jason Motte, RHP
Two-Star Prospects
11. Niko Vasquez, SS

Just Missed: Mitch Boggs, RHP; Jon Jay, OF; Peter Kozma, SS

Now taking a look at this list, Colby Rasmus and Jason Motte are on the big league roster, and Chris Perez was traded to the Indians in the Mark DeRosa deal, leaving Ricciardi with a list that includes Brett Wallace, Daryl Jones, Jess Todd, Bryan Anderson and Peter Kozma, Mitch Boggs or Jaime Garcia.

If I were Blue Jays GM J.P. Ricciardi, I would want the deal to start with Rasmus and Wallace, otherwise, I test Phillies GM Ruben Amaro who can up the ante to include AA P Kyle Drabek instead of AAA P Carlos Carrasco. Don't get me wrong, Wallace can rake, but he is not a major league third baseman by all accounts. The rest of the top 5 I listed are not as "major league ready" as the proposed Phillies offer I made yesterday which included J.A. Happ, Carlos Carrasco, Michael Taylor and Jason Donald.

And secondly, why wouldn't the Cardinals go after a bat rather than a starting pitcher? They still need a bat to protect Albert Pujols, especially when they don't know when Mark DeRosa is coming off the DL.

Poll

Should the Cardinals deal for a bat (think Matt Holliday) or Roy Halladay?

A bat, preferably Matt Holliday.

186 votes

That's easy, Roy Halladay. I'd pick Hallday every day of the week and twice on Sunday.

433 votes

619 votes | Poll has closed

choosing up sides

lboros — Tue, 09 Jun 2009 11:00:23 -0000

More photos » by Tom Gannam - AP

jeff luhnow's first selection in the amateur draft was also his best so far.

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howdy gang; i'll be sitting in today and friday while danup takes his annual leave of the pixels. i got nothing to say about the team this morning that you don’t already know; start hitting soon, boys. please?

the amateur draft starts tonight with rounds 1 through 3, plus a couple of sandwich rounds; i’ll post a comment thread for that, and a concurrent one for the baseball game against florida. i won’t be on hand tonight to update the picks on the front page as they’re made, so if anybody with keys to the blog has a chance to do that, go for it. and thank you.

this will be the 5th luhnow-run draft; that’s a lot of drafts for one guy. according to Baseball America’s executive database, only three scouting directors have run more drafts for the cardinal franchise -- marty maier, fred mcalister (rip), and george silvey. and maier’s were non-consecutive, which leaves silvey and mcalister -- both franchise legends -- as the only two men with longer uninterrupted stints than luhnow at the head of the draft.

there’s still plenty of room for argument about how effectively luhnow has drafted. he’s already had 10 draftees get to the majors -- rasmus, greene, boggs, stavinoha, and garcia from the 2005 draft; perez, walters, luke gregerson, and sugar shane from ’06; todd from ’07 -- but none has been around long enough to establish how good a big-leaguer he will be. the pundits give luhnow good marks -- since he started drafting, the cardinals’ farm system ranking (according to the likes of baseball america, keith law, and kevin goldstein) has jumped from at or near the bottom in 2005 to the top 10 this year. but there are a lot of doubters too, as joe strauss documented in his p-d article on sunday:

.[N]umerous holdovers from Jocketty's regime remain skeptical of a process they believe has amassed plenty of complementary "bat guys" and bullpen arms but few starting pitchers or "impact" players.

Late to the organization's greater emphasis on quantitative analysis, manager Tony La Russa openly has questioned the level of "experimentation" within player development and scouting under Luhnow.

Said La Russa: "What you can look at is: Who did you take? Who did you have the chance to take? What guys get to the big leagues? And of the guys who reach the big leagues, who are impressive? They're fair questions to ask."

Another organization member is blunter still: "There is very little down there, very little. We haven't drafted players you build a team around. We draft guys who may one day help. That's not opinion; that's fact."

anybody want to guess who the anonymous speaker of the last quote is? i'll bet you a number-one draft pick it’s dave duncan . . . . whichever "jocketty holdover" did say it, that comment made me laugh. in the years immediately before luhnow took over, the cardinals didn’t draft players you could build a triple A team around, much less a big-league club. during the dying days of jocketty’s tenure, he’d look down at the memphis roster for a short-term fill-in and his best options would be washed-out 30ish hitters like scott seabol, brian daubach, or timo perez, or mound journeymen like brian falkenborg and kelvin jimenez. the top "prospects" drafted late on jocketty’s watch, such as travis hanson and reid gorecki, didn’t even rise to the level of replacement players.

so it’s a fact -- not an opinion -- that the farm system is stocked with vastly more promise than it was when luhnow took over. he’s been procuring players for four years now, and in that time he’s brought into the organization two likely major-league regulars (colby rasmus and brett wallace), several others who are possible regulars or semi-regulars (daryl jones, pete kozma, tyler greene, bryan anderson), a bunch of others who have bench-player potential (most notably allen craig, john jay, tyler henley, daniel descalso), and a passel of guys with a good chance to stick somewhere as a reliever or mid- to back-rotation starter (mitch boggs, jaime garcia, lance lynn, clay mortensen, chris perez, jess todd, luke gregerson, francisco samuel, fernando salas). that’s not including anybody who’s presently at class A or below (ie, nearly the entire 2008 draft class), nor toolsy caribbean signees like roberto de la cruz and eduardo sanchez and gerardo mannbel.

let’s place that haul alongside the production of previous four-year spans:

	2005-08	2001-04	1997-00	1993-96
STARS	????	dan haren	albert pujols jd drew	matt morris
REGULARS	probably 3 to 5	skip schumaker	adam kennedy yadi molina jack wilson chris duncan coco crisp rick ankiel	placido polanco alan benes braden looper
PART-TIMERS	possibly 8 to 10	kyle mclellan joe mather brad thompson daric barton brendan ryan anthony reyes jason motte	bud smith mike crudale pablo ozuna	eli marrero jay witasick cliff polite britt reames chris richard kerry robinson brent butler

in this chart, the "regulars" category includes starting pitchers who earne a regular rotation spot, plus closers; "part-timers" includes non-closers in the bullpen. i didn’t bother to list replacement-level players (such as stavinoha and shane robinson), who are legion in all the 4-year periods and of absolutely no interest.

what immediately jumps out at me is that the cardinals drafted their asses off in the late 1990s -- and thereby set up the dynasty of the 2000s. between 1997 and 2000 they brought 8 everyday players into the organization, or 2 per year. they drafted an entire up-the-middle core -- yadi behind the plate; kennedy and wilson in the middle infield; crisp in center -- plus a pitcher with ace potential (ankiel) and two mvp-type hitters (pujols and drew). even though they squandered some of the talent (crisp and wilson were both dealt for half-season rentals, and ankiel you know about), the cardinals added an extraordinary amount of value to their portfolio during those years. we don’t think of the 2000s dynasty as being draft-built, but it really was -- their good drafts in the last half of the 1990s yielded albert pujols and matt morris plus (via trade) edgar renteria, jim edmonds, and scott rolen.

could the 2005-08 draft cohort turn out to be as productive as 97-00? not likely, but not impossible. if we’re lucky, rasmus and/or wallace might eventually fit into the "star" category; they might be the two most promising position players the cardinals have drafted since pujols (although wallace’s early showing at memphis -- 4 walks, 21 strikeouts, .088 isolated power in 91 at-bats -- does give me slight pause). daryl jones could turn into coco crisp, and pete kozma could grow up to be jack wilson (a player he was compared to at the time he was drafted); so could tyler greene, for that matter. there might be a closer (perez) and/or a rotation regular or two in the group. . . . in an extremely lucky scenario, there might be 8 everyday players (including a star or two) to come out of luhnow’s first four drafts. more likely the group will produce 3 to 5 regulars plus some bench depth; a good, not great, haul.

will the cardinals be able to build a contending team around these guys? too soon to tell; ask me again when luhnow’s preparing for his 8th or 9th draft . . . . .

Red Baron Note: Hey, gang, Aaron here. I'm going to be covering the draft as it happens over at the RFT, and I'll try to keep the draft thread here updated too whenever a pick is made. I'll probably save the heavy analysis, but I will make sure at least the names and maybe a link or a couple of sentences is put up.

Also, I know Erik is doing a liveblog over at FR via the CoverItLive software, so be sure to check that out as well. Lord, I love draft day.

Catching Prospects: Pop-guns and Bazookas

erik — Wed, 08 Apr 2009 14:00:12 -0000

Last week* I covered the top position player prospects and their defense, but I wasn't really sure what to do with catchers. Quantifying catcher defense is still rather nebulous, as there's a lot of factors that are tricky to weigh. There are a couple of things that we know catchers are (mostly) responsible for, which would be controlling the running game and blocking balls.

Charted below are the top catching prospects in the game. The categories are pretty self-explanatory, but let's touch on them quickly. There is the amount of innings they caught, the stolen base percentage they allowed, stolen base attempts per inning, stolen bases per inning and passed balls per inning.

Attempts per inning is a good way to gauge a catcher's reputation. If word is out to minor league managers that the guy behind the plate has a cannon of an arm, they'll run less. On the flip side, if the scouting report says the catcher has a noodle of a throwing arm, they will let their guys run at will. In order to equalize reputation with results, there is stolen bases per inning.

I wanted to include wild pitches + passed balls per nine innings but instead settled for passed balls per inning. The difference between passed balls and wild pitches can be arbitrary; one official scorer's wild pitch is another scorer's passed ball. I opted to punt wild pitches because I found the lower I went into the minors, the more wild pitches there seemed to be. Another road block was that while I could find league averages for passed balls, I was unsuccessful finding wild pitches.

	Org	Level	Innings	SB%	ATT/I	SB/I	PB/I
Matt Wieters	BAL	A+/AA	742.6	59%	12%	4.6%	.004
Carlos Santana	CLE	A+/AA	850.3	75%	13.6%	10.2%	.016
Jesus Montero	NYY	A	591.7	75.5%	16.6%	12.5%	.019
J.P. Arencibia	TOR	A+/AA	874.3	68.3%	9.4%	6.4%	.017
Lou Marson	PHI	AA	735.7	66.7%	10.2%	6.8%	.006
Wilson Ramos	MIN	A+	619	58.7%	10.2%	5.9%	.008
Taylor Teagarden	TEX	AA/AAA	575.3	65%	10.4%	6.7%	.005
Max Ramirez	TEX	AA/AAA	409.7	77.6%	15.4%	12.7%	.012
Tyler Flowers	CWS	A+	721.7	74.8%	18.7%	14%	.015
Angel Salome	MIL	AA	667	76.9%	16.2%	12.4%	.019
Bryan Anderson	STL	AA/AAA	724.3	67%	13.4%	9%	.014
Austin Romine	NYY	A	444	82.4%	20.5%	16.9%	.041
Jon Lucroy	MIL	A/A+	818	57.7%	13.6%	7.8%	.012
Adam Moore	SEA	AA	898.3	67.2%	12.2%	8.2%	.026
Cole Armstrong	CWS	AA/AAA	780.4	72.5%	8.9%	6.4%	.012
Welington Castillo	CHC	A+/AA	674.3	75%	9.5%	7.1%	.030
Michael McKenry	COL	A+	801.7	52.6%	9.7%	5.1%	.012
Devin Mesoraco	CIN	A	614.3	82.3%	15.6%	12.9%	.023
John Jaso	TB	AA/AAA	803.6	81.3%	16.3%	12.9%	.009
James Skelton	AZ	A+/AA	646.6	61.4%	8.8%	5.4%	.017
Pablo Sandoval	SFG	A+/AA	681.3	63.8%	8.4%	5.4%	.007

For some context, here are the averages at each level of the minors. Catchers as a group improve at each level. Base-stealers also get a little more selective on how often they run as they move up.

LEV	SB	CS	SB%	ATT/I	SB/I	PB/I
AAA	3090	1327	70.00%	11.50%	8.00%	.012
AA	3053	1461	67.60%	11.90%	8.00%	.013
A+	3753	1728	68.50%	14.60%	10.00%	.018
A	3993	1761	69.40%	15.40%	10.70%	.017

Whether or not these players can handle their position is a very big deal, as there are few catchers athletic enough to handle another position other than first base. The exceptions are few and far in-between...Craig Biggio, Brandon Inge come to mind, but most failed catching prospects shift to the far left side the defensive spectrum. If their bat isn't good enough to be an every day first baseman or DH, the player goes from prospect to suspect in a hurry.

Some random thoughts:

Matt Wieters is either a cyborg from the future or is one of the descendants of the Nephilim of old. Not only can he rake, he also stops the running game cold and also is adept at blocking balls in the dirt. He can even make an omelet without cracking any eggs.
Taylor Teagarden and Wilson Ramos are as good as advertised.
James Skelton and Pablo Sandoval are much better than advertised, probably because they are such oddballs.
Michael McKenry earns the first ever BtB "Golden Bazooka" award. Austin Romine gets the first annual "Pop-Gun" award. He reportedly has a strong arm but apparently has no clue how to utilize it. Not only did he struggle with stopping runners, he was by far the worst on this list at allowing passed balls.
It's a good thing Carlos Santana and Jesus Montero can hit.
Welington Castillo slides into the suspect category if he can't improve his plate-blocking skills.
Everyone seemed to be gushing about what a great all-around catching prospect Devin Mesoraco was on draft day, but oy...what a terrible debut.

*SS | CF | 2B | 3B | OF | 1B

Comparative Advantage: Red Sox and Yankees

0157H7 — Mon, 12 Jan 2009 02:50:03 -0000

One way to explain this offseason is through the prism of Economics. From this perspective, the decisions taken by Theo and co. make a lot more sense.

A key idea in Economics is comparative advantage. The quick definition of this term is the ability of one individual or group to do something more easily than another. I'll illustrate this with an example.

Let's say that Theo is superb at solving equations, while Brian is the best there is at making hamburgers. In one hour, Theo can do his and Brian's homework, while Brian can make ten hamburgers. If the roles are reversed, Theo makes only two hamburgers,* while Brian can't even finish his own homework, let alone Theo's honors Calculus problems.

The core of comparative advantage is something called opportunity cost. Opportunity cost is basically the cost of missed alternatives. For example, you could have put your $40,000 retirement fund into an interest-paying bank account, rather than into Lehman Brothers stock. Whoops. In our example above, both Theo and Brian benefit most if Theo does the homework and Brian makes lunch.

I know what you're thinking - what does any of this have to do with baseball? Well, teams also have comparative advantages and opportunity costs, and these are especially visible on the free agent market.

The Yankees, for example, have access to the most funds, and can field a team with the highest payroll. Their comparative advantage is the ability to sign the most expensive free agents, like C.C. Sabathia or Mark Teixeira. The inherent risk of signing a guy like Tex (injury, cost) is mitigated by these resources. Having Tex and CC doesn't mean the Yankees won't get Matt Holliday next year.

On the other end of the payroll spectrum, the Florida Marlins had a $22.65 million 2008 payroll. (Let's kindly ignore that last year they received about $25 million in revenue sharing money.) If payroll remained static, the opportunity cost of signing Mark Teixeira would be the inability to field a full roster of players. The Marlins front office necessarily focuses on player development and drafting, since they cannot afford most free agents.

The Red Sox, with a payroll around $70-80 million south of the Yankees, can still make big signings and throw their money around. But when they come into direct competition with the Yankees, they lose.

So what, then, is Boston's comparative advantage? In the past few years, Theo and company have markedly improved the player development system (which wasn't terrible to begin with - Lester and Youkilis were both pre-Theo). In recent years, the system has produced role players like Lowrie and Ellsbury, and impact players like Pedroia and Papelbon. With young and inexpensive players, it is easier to sign new players, and to retain.

The pipeline of minor talent, as well as the base of players still in their prime, allows Boston to take low-rish high-reward chances. Look at this offseason. Rather than break the bank for a marquee free agent, the Sox have made depth signings, grabbing Baldelli, Penny, Smoltz, and (probably) Kotsay. Those signings probably add up to between $13-20 million, depending on performance (the contracts are heavily incentivized). For less than the cost of Mark Teixeira (and no draft picks!), they signed four players to improve the bench and rotation. In other words, the opportunity cost of signing Mark Teixeira is two good bench players and two potentially dominant starters filling out the back of the rotation.

Finally, the Red Sox have enjoyed recent playoff success. They've won two World Series in the six years of Theo's reign, and were a game away from competing in number three. There is little pressure, internal (ownership) or external (i.e. media, fans), to make big moves and try to "win now." The Yankees, by contrast, are under these pressures, largely because they've set the bar higher. Such pressure can lead to moves that may be good in the short-term, but terrible long-term. Signing Tex, while good now, constrains the Yankees' options at 1B long-term; without him, they could have put Jeter, A-Rod, Damon, or Posada there in the near future as their defensive skills declined.

To conclude, Boston's comparative advantage:
- $100 million player development machine. Enough money to sign overslot draftees (ex. Casey Kelly).
- Ability to beat or match non-Yankees teams on free agents. See J.D. Drew, Julio Lugo, Mike Lowell.
- Recent success. It is not necessary to make big, risky moves with potentially bad long-term consequences.
- Ability to make low-risk, high-reward investments without endangering the overall quality of the team. See Ortiz, David (circa 2003) and this offseason's signings.

Because of these qualities, I am confident that the Red Sox are in very good shape going forward. The big weakness of the 2008 Red Sox squad going into the playoffs was their lack of depth. We had the offense, a good top three starters, and a solid closer, but the pen, bench and rotation were both weak. With some luck, we won't have to worry about the 4th starter in the playoffs (it'll be Smoltz or Penny, not Wakefield), or about the quality of our bench players (Kotsay and Baldelli > Cora and Cash).

All that remains is to sign a new catcher. With our added depth in the rotation and pen, I think Justin Masterson may be heading to warmer climates very soon, and Bryan Anderson or Jarrod Saltalamacchia will be putting on a Sox uniform.

*In fairness, those hamburgers are as perfectly symmetrical as balanced quadratic equations. Even if they are badly burnt.

Poll

Are you happy with the Red Sox offseason so far?

Yes. I think Theo's doing the right thing by giving the team depth.

233 votes

No. Theo should have done more, like pushed harder for Teixeira.

141 votes

Absolutely not. By not signing Teixeira, the Red Sox are falling behind New York in the "spelling gap." Sign Mientkiewicz immediately!!!1

106 votes

My feelings change, day by day, hour by hour, like the meanderings of a moth in flight.

49 votes

529 votes | Poll has closed

Jason Varitek: Yay or Nay?

0157H7 — Sun, 14 Dec 2008 18:25:19 -0000

With all the excitement over the Yankees' moves, and over Teixeira speculation, we're moving away from what may be the most critical position for the Red Sox long-term - catcher. The Red Sox have a serious decision to make, and it starts with whether or not they want Jason Varitek.

From where I stand, Tek really erred when he decided not to accept arbitration. Coming off an atrocious year, and his second lost season in the past three, Tek's strategy should have been to accept arbitration. Then he could make more money than as a free agent, and hopefully rebuild his value for another run at free agency for 2010.

As it is now, the market for Tek appears almost non-existent. The Tigers grabbed Gerald Laird, the Reds traded for Ramon Hernandez. And if a team wanted a veteran catcher, they'd probably prefer Ivan Rodriguez, who wouldn't cost first round draft picks.

If Jason Varitek can't work something out with the Red Sox, Boras is going to have to start marketing him in Japan. As much as Varitek-san would love the land of the Rising Sun, I think he'd prefer to not deal with a new league, new language, new pitching staff, and a new greatly reduced salary.*

With practically no other teams bidding for his services, Varitek has basically zero leverage. If he comes back to Boston, it'll be on Theo's terms. Our front office is not immune to sentimentality - witness the $4 million 2008 contract for Mike Timlin - but I hope in this case it won't be the driving factor. In this case, Theo should be able to hold Tek to a one-year deal, either as the primary starter or as part of a platoon with someone younger or better defensively (i.e. Cash).

On a one-year deal for less money, say $4 million, Varitek may be a legitimate option. The pitching staff likes him, and he hits lefties well (2008: .863 OPS). He's just one season removed from a good 2007 (.787 OPS). There is the possibility that he bounces back, especially if his struggles were more psychological (i.e. he got divorced) than physical.

However, I would prefer that Theo begins auditions for Who Wants to Catch the Red Sox sooner rather than later. Tek's defense has become underwhelming (18.8% caught-stealing percentage), and as a hitter he struggled to make contact all year long (2008: .220 / .313 / .359). It's unrealistic to expect much of an improvement at age 37, especially for a catcher. I'd rather bring back Kevin Cash, who plays good defense, guns down runners (26.9% CS%), and can catch Wakefield, than Tek, who is misfiring on all cylinders.

So here's my proposal:
1) Trade for a top catching prospect (preferably Teagarden, Salty, or Brian Anderson). Give him 60-75% of starts.
2) Bring back Kevin Cash, have him catch Wakefield and the remaining starts.
3) Have Dusty Brown / George Kottaras waiting in the wings should the prospect struggle or go down to injury.

What say you OTM? Do you approve? And more importantly, do you want Jason Varitek back for 2008?

*Baseball players in Japan make substantially less than their American counterparts. This is part of the reason that coming to the U.S. can be so appealing.

Poll

Should Jason Varitek be on the Red Sox for the 2009 season?

Yes. He should be the starting catcher.

93 votes

Yes. But he should be in a platoon or be the backup.

92 votes

No. He's too old, and coming off a terrible season. Give someone else a shot.

58 votes

I refuse to submit to this tyrannical tri-partite poll. Ron Paul for catcher!!!!@!

12 votes

255 votes | Poll has closed