SB Nation - Colby Rasmus

The NL Central Offseason Revue Pt. 2: The Red Menace

the red baron — Wed, 16 Dec 2009 16:35:23 -0000

Um, I think Jocketty is the one on the left.

I decided I'm going to try and do these in order from best to worst in the division; unfortunately, that now means I have to try and come up with preseason predictions before the offseason is even half over. Not a great idea on my part, really; I should have done them in alphabetical order or something. Oh, well. Too late for such considerations now, I suppose.

Of all the teams in the Central, perhaps none is so enigmatic as the Cincinnati Reds. Every spring for god knows how many years now we've heard the constant refrain, "Look out for the Reds this year. This is the year they finally turn that corner." Now, to be fair, we hear much the same thing about the Pirates, but predictions of Pittsburgh's rise are always couched not in terms of contention, but in terms of near-winning baseball. Thus, even as the predictions are made, our natural inclination toward Piratic indifference kicks in. The Reds, on the other hand, are a different story.

See, the thing about the Reds is this: they have some really, really good players. Players I would love to have on my team. They stole Brandon Phillips from their in-state rivals just a couple offseasons back, right from under the Cards' noses, even as Junior Spivey was busily reminding us not all reclamation projects end up reclaiming anything. Sometimes the ship stays sunk. (By the by, I'm proud to say I was one of the people hoping and advocating for the Cards to bring in Phillips. Sadly, our voices were not heard.) The Reds have some outstanding young arms. Their closer is one of the better ones in the business. (Still not worth his contract, but that's another issue entirely.) The right fielder is the guy the Cardinals really wanted in 2005; they chose Colby Rasmus specifically because he was the most similar player to Jay Bruce in the draft. There is some real talent here.

Yet somehow, year after year, those cries which warn us of the approaching Cincinnati domination always turn out to be wrong. Every year the Reds find some way not to win. It's gotten to the point I almost fear the offseason when no one cautions against the Reds; perhaps the spell will then be broken and this long-benighted franchise will step fully into the light. Or, perhaps not.

Either way, a little insurance can't possibly be a bad thing.

This is the year, folks. Watch out for the Reds.

Cincinnati Reds 2009 Record: 78-84, 13 games out of first

Pythagorean Record: 76-86 (673 runs scored, 723 allowed)

It was another disappointing year for the Reds, who came into the 2009 season with one of the most promising teams Cincinnati has seen in years. There was tons of optimism, and rightfully so; the Reds' rotation was immensely talented and young, just beginning to come into its own. Unfortunately, the struggles of youth and the injury bugbear combined to rob the Reds of their pitching bite, and the offense simply wasn't good enough to compensate.

Offense: After years of watching the Dunn/Griffey led Reds mash their way through the division while failing to hold anyone to less than seven runs per game, the 2009 Reds were a positively anemic change of pace. The Cardinals were not a particularly prolific offensive team, but the Reds made them look positively potent by comparison. (I'm feeling quite loquacious this morning, by the way. Does it show?) The Cardinals scored 730 runs, 57 more than the limp-lumbered lads from Cincy. Nearly six wins worth of offensive production is nothing to sneeze at.

While the Reds' problems at the platter in 2009 were legion, one can point to two areas in particular which acted as anchors around the necks of the Redlegs. On the one hand, you have the outfield. Then, on the other hand, you have the infield.

One of the more glaring issues for the Reds was the appallingly average sophomore slump of Jay Bruce, who followed up what was a very encouraging debut season with, essentially, the exact same performance. Not that that's the worst thing in the world, mind you; Bruce's OPS+ was 97 in '08 and 100 in '09, making him exactly league average, but this is Jay F. Bruce we're talking about here. He's young, yes, but you still don't expect him to be duking it out with Skip Schumaker for the title of Averagest HItter in all Baseballdom.

The good news, for Cincinnati fans at least, is this: Jay Bruce is still a better hitter than what he's shown in the majors. I feel completely confident in saying I still expect Bruce to be a star, given time to grow and better health. Unfortunately, I can't say the same for the rest of the Reds' outfield. This is, after all, a team which paid Willy Taveras actual, honest to god money to post a .559 OPS over the course of 400+ at-bats. Laynce Nix proved a source of superfluous Y's and steroid speculation, but little else. (Well, except against the Cardinals, that is.) He did put up an OPS+ of 98, but from a left fielder, you've got to expect a bit more thump. The lone real bright spot for the Reds was Johnny Gomes, who hit quite well in the Great American Bandbox, to the tune of an .879 OPS. Unfortunately, Johnny Gomes plays defense like Chris Duncan using an oven mitt. Still, beggars can't be choosers, I suppose.

On the infield, things were a bit more of a mixed bag. The right side of the Reds' gamut of grounder grabbers was brilliant, with Joey Votto establishing himself as a legitimate force (OPS of .981 for the season), and Brandon Phillips turning in another of his usual five-tool showcase performances. The left side of the infield, however, oy. Not so much. Paul Janish and Adam Rosales took the lion's shares of at-bats at shortstop and third base, respectively, and both posted OPS's in the low .600s. (Janish took the low .600s thing to the extreme, posting a .601.) Jerry Hairston played a fair amount at various positions all over the diamond and was a little better, though he still wasn't inspiring shock and awe in too many opposing pitchers.

Now that's the bad news. The good news (again, for Reds' fans), is that there will be different faces at several positions for 2010. Drew Stubbs, the Reds' uber-athletic Mike Cameron clone, came up late in the season and displayed a wide base of exciting tools in center field. Stubbs has speed, he has power, and he can go get it with the best of them in the field. The only thing holding him back is his tendency to take lots and lots of empty swings. Sort of a center field version of Tyler Greene.

The other big upgrade the Reds can count on is, of course, our old buddy Scott Rolen. Rolen came over from the Blue Jays in a midseason trade and played quite well for the Reds, hitting .270/.364/.401 and playing defense which was nearly Rolenesque. The Rolen of old is gone and he's never coming back, but the new model is still a substantial upgrade over what the Reds were trotting out most of the season.

Starting Pitching

What was supposed to be the biggest strength for the Reds ended up helping to drag them down. As the year opened, there were some touting the Reds' 1-2 rotation punch of Edinson Volquez and Johnny Cueto as the best in the National League, and perhaps one of the best in all of baseball. Sadly, Volquez succumbed to injury, having Tommy John surgery in early August, and Cueto seemed to take a step backward from his rookie campaign, even though he ended up with a lower ERA for the season. Cueto started off hot, then imploded in the late summer months, allowing an opponent's OPS of 1.026(!) in July and .938 in August. He did turn things around a bit at the end of the season, pitching better in September, but it wasn't enough to wash away the sins of the previous two months.

As strange as it sounds, Bronson Arroyo actually had sort of an okay year. Sort of. Kind of. He went 15-13, 3.84, gave up less hits than innings pitched (214 H in 220.1 IP), and struck out almost twice as many batters as he walked. Now, as to how he did it, I honestly have no idea. Every time I saw Arroyo, he was being yanked out of the game after giving up five runs in two and a third. He's basically Swamp Gas II: the Swampening at this point for me. Homer Bailey continued to frustrate those of us who believe prospect ranking should count for something, damn it, by not turning into Nolan Ryan, but there were positive signs. While his overall numerical profile doesn't inspire much confidence, Bailey did pitch extraordinarily well in September, going 4-1, 2.08 and striking out 42 batters in 43.1 innings while walking 19. Let's put it this way: if Walt or Dusty decide Homer's just not going to work out up there, I would be more than happpy to take him off their hands.

Elsewhere in the Reds' rotation, Aaron Harang was bad again, Micah Owings was a really good hitter, and Kip Wells gave Cincinnati a taste of the 2007 Cardinal magic.

The rotation could very well still be a strength in 2010 for the Reds. If Bailey really has turned a corner and Cueto can find a bit of his early-season magic after Memorial Day, Cincy could have a nice tandem atop the rotation. Add Volquez possibly returning for the stretch run, and that's an intriguing trio. And as much as it pains me to say it, you could probably do worse than Bronson Arroyo and the Harangutan for your 4th and 5th spots. (Then again, for what the Reds are paying those guys, they could also do miles better.)

Bullpen

And now we come to the real strength of the Cincinnati Reds: their bullpen. (I'll take 'Sentences I Never Expected to Speak' for $600, Alex.) After years of wandering in the desert, searching for relievers, the Reds seem to have finally found the guys to put the kibosh on any late-inning uprisings.

Francisco Cordero is not worth his contract. We'll just get that out of the way up front. Nonetheless, he's a very, very good pitcher even as he enters his mid 30s, posting a 2.16 ERA last season. He could fall off a cliff, but I don't think he will. I think we're just going to have to put up with him being good for the near future. Maybe we could get Spiezio to sober up and just pinch-hit during series with Cincinnati...

The biggest difference for the Reds between 2009 and past seasons was the emergence of Nick Masset and Danny Ray Herrera, the Screwball Kid himself, as legitimate setup men. In the past, even when the Reds had a player who could shut the door at the end of the game (remember when Todd Coffey looked like a good pitcher for like three months? Wasn't that weird?), there was nothing in the way of a bridge to get there. With Masset and Herrera, the Reds finally have that bridge.

The rest of the Redleg relief corps was solid but nothing spectacular. Arthur Rhodes was good, making me wish the Cardinals had more Rhodehouse and less Diner, but secondary LOOGY certainly isn't anything to get too very upset about.

Offseason Priorities

To be honest, I'm not sure how much Walt Jocketty and the rest of his communist cronies are going to be doing this offseason. The very same thing that makes the Reds such an intriguing team is the thing which makes them so difficult to improve. The Reds are a transitional team, and the opportunity cost of bringing in marginal upgrades may just prove to be a bit too steep. Add in the fact Cincinnati appears to have very little breathing room in terms of payroll, and I think it will likely be a relatively quiet offseason for Jocketty and Co.

The two big opportunities for the Reds to make upgrades are at shortstop and left field; unfortunately, upgrading at either of those spots is easier said than done this winter. The Reds lack the financial capacity to get into the bidding for either of the big LF prizes, Holliday or Jason Bay, and most of the other players available would represent a middling upgrade at best. The Reds have two players in their system, Todd Frazier and Chris Heisey, who both could see time in left in 2010. Frazier is a third baseman by trade, but earns his keep mostly with the bat, and could see outfield time a la Allen Craig just to get him into the lineup. Heisy is a speedy, plus-defense type with a line-drive swing and fair on-base skills. It wouldn't surprise me to see the Reds bring back Gomes as a LF/1B guy on days when Votto isn't playing and try to work one or both of Heisy/ Frazier in slowly with ABs in left.

Shortstop, on the other hand, might be a bit more interesting. There aren't a whole lot of guys out there, but there are a couple decent names. If the Reds were looking for an offensive upgrade, either Miguel Tejada or Felipe Lopez could offer a bat for a fair value. Of course, both have significant questions surrounding their abilities to play shortstop, but hey, I said offensive upgrade. If Cincinnati decided to go more for a defense-first guy, Orlando Cabrera can still pick it with the best of them. Regardless, I think shortstop is the most likely position to look toward if the Reds are going to make a move this offseason.

I'm sure Jocketty and Baker would like to pick up a more dependable arm for depth in the rotation, but I'm not sure they'll have the payroll to do so. The Reds are already paying Harang and Arroyo gobs of money; they may try to deal for an arm but I don't see a signing there. The bullpen actually needs the least help of all; they may sign a guy to replace Rhodes if he leaves or something like that, but I think the relief corps is largely set.

The Bottom Line

Do I think the Reds are going to be better than Milwaukee? I must, since I did them before the Brew Crew, right? The answer is a decided and unequivocal maybe. I think the Reds have the potential, certainly, to improve more than probably any other team in the division, simply based on their young talent base. I think the Brewers largely are who we think they are, a team of tremendous offensive talent and very, very limited pitching resources. The Reds, on the other hand, have a lot of untapped potential on both sides of the equation, and depending on how things break, they could vault up the standing in the Central or remain the same enigmatic bunch of underachievers they have been for years now.

I think the addition of Scott Rolen was a cataclysmically bad one, but, paradoxically, I also believe he'll make the Reds better in the coming season. He should provide just enough offense while helping the pitchers out significantly.

In the end, the success or failure of the Reds' 2010 season will likely have little to do with what, if any, moves Walt Jocketty makes this winter. Rather, the fate of the first season of the new decade (eat it, Matty!), will hinge largely on the three pillars upon which we've been told Cincinnati's new glory would be built for years: Homer Bailey, Jay Bruce, and Joey Votto. If those three are the players they were thought to be on the way up, the Reds could very well make some noise. If not, it could be another very long summer in the home of the world's shittiest chili.

The Baron's Playlist for the 16th of December, 2009: the Christmas Catalogue

(In no particular order, by the way)

"Fairytale of New York" - The Pogues
"Rockin' Around the Christmas Tree" - Brenda Lee (listen closely; she's actually saying fucking pie. Seriously.)
"You're All I Want for Christmas" - Brook Benton
"A Change at Christmas (Say it Isn't So)" - the Flaming Lips
"Merry Xmas Everybody" - Slade
"Jingle Bell Rock" - Bobby Helms (this is the song that will one day force me to pull to the side of the road and cry when my mother is gone)
"White Christmas" - The Drifters (sorry, but this one is way, way better than the Bing Crosby version)
"Happy Christmas (War is Over)" - John Lennon and Yoko Ono
"Blue Christmas" - Elvis Presley
"Happy Holidays" - Alabama (I really, really hate Alabama, but I loved this song when I was a kid listening to the old True Value Hardware Christmas records)
"We're Going to the Country!" - Sufjan Stevens
"Peace on Earth/ Little Drummer Boy" - David Bowie and Bing Crosby
"Marshmallow World" - Dean Martin
"God Rest Ye, Merry Gentlemen" - Nat King Cole (another True Value special)
"Frosty the Snowman" - The Ronettes
"Jingle Bells" - Glenn Miller
"I'll Be Home for Christmas" - Frank Sinatra
"I Want a Hippopotamus for Christmas" - Gayla Peevey
"Christmastime is Here" - The Vince Guaraldi Trio (sadly, this song underwent one of the worst remasters I believe I've ever heard just a couple years ago; find the old, unremastered version.)
"Christmas Wrapping" - the Waitresses (this song is utter crap. I fucking love it.)

I'm going to stop at 20. It's tough for me to do, but I'm going to do it.

The Great General Manager Debate: NL Central Edition

davoag — Mon, 09 Nov 2009 13:00:27 -0000

The trade that made me lose faith in the Pirates suckitude...

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Part of my reaction to the Aki Iwamura trade was realizing how surprisingly competent the Pirates front office has become. They picked up a cost-controlled player for a replaceable part and improved their infield defense in the process. How is that a bad thing?

The funny thing is, the Pirates have been bad for so long, and it's so easy to dismiss their hires as actually being good baseball people, I had forgotten what Pittsburgh was actually getting in Neil Huntington. Here's another post from FanGraphs about what this trade means for the Pirates executives and here's an interview with Dan Fox, their database guru. Basically, the Pirates have a guy that gets to play with computer simulations all day until he can accurately evaluate and forecast players. I can get that job how?

It also made me start thinking about all the general managers in the National League Central. Which ones was I most afraid of? Which ones were a joke? Were there any teams that were run competently from year to year?

The thing that surprised me when I did my research was not that Ed Wade is probably the weakest GM in the Central, it's that so many of them have changed in the past two seasons. Justice loves to harp on how the organizational chaos Houston has gone through is affecting the club in many ways. Still, to see that so many of Wade's peers have also changed jobs recently is refreshing.

It's also scary, especially when at least four of these guys are competent-to-really good. After the jump is a look at each GM. Feel free to share your thoughts on who worries you the most in the comments...

Chicago Cubs

GM Jim Hendry

Tenure: Since July, 2002 ( 7 1/2 seasons)

Notes: The longest tenured general manager also has the biggest payroll of any team in the division. What does he do with all that money? Waste it. As scary as the Cubs lineup and rotation can be, Hendry alone makes me feel good about the Astros chances against Chicago in the near future.

This was a man who overpaid for guys like LaTroy Hawkins and Ted Lilly (though, to be fair, Lilly was excellent). He also spent a ton of money for Alfonso Soriano to play center field, and then promptly bumped him to left. Then, he spent a ton of money to bring in notorious pot-stirrer Milton Bradley, adding to the dangerous clubhouse dynamic that Lou Piniella always brings.

Funny thing, though, 134 million can buy you a damned good team. Hendry may have made mistakes in the past, but has done a good job of at least correcting them. He admitted failure with Rich Hill, shipping him off to Baltimore. He did turn Ryan Dempster into an effective pitcher in his new role with the Cubs. Hendry also has a productive farm system, with guys like Carlos Marmol and Geovanny Soto picking up the team on the cheap.

Would Hendry be this good without all that money? Probably not. In his market, though, it's tough not to make a big splash each season and have the fans be happy. Of all the GMs, though, I'm least afraid of Hendry.

Cincinnati Reds

GM Walt Jocketty

Tenure: Since 2008 (2 seasons)

Notes: The interesting thing about Jocketty is he went from a winning team to one that is continually frustrated by not being able to get over the hump. He also went to a team that walked away from a more progressive-thinking GM in former Twins assistant Wayne Krivsky for the more traditional Jocketty. Of course, Jocketty also followed Tony LaRussa from Oakland to St. Louis, so it's unclear how much of his philosophy is tied to LaRussa's.

The Reds haven't exactly been dramatic in making over the club, but Jocketty has shown a willingness to be aggressive with the team's prospects and not trade off valuable assets for overhyped players (I'm looking at you, Jim Bowden). Still, Jocketty hasn't shown the same level of success as at his previous two stops. It will take a little more time to see whether his player evaluation method transfers to the Reds scouting department. If Jocketty can hit a few home runs in the draft, the rest of his record in the Queen City will be moot.

Milwaukee Brewers

GM Doug Melvin

Tenure: Since September 2002 (7 seasons)

Notes: One of the two longest tenured GMs in the NL Central, Melvin has had an up-and-down career in Milwaukee. Yes, he did draft Rickie Weeks and Prince Fielder. Yes, he did trade for CC Sabathia. But, what have the Brewers actually won? This team seems to consistenly play for second place, which isn't bad, but until they can get over the hump mentally, Melvin may not be viewed more positively.

All indications are that Melvin is a more traditional GM. The Brewers don't leap out at you as a very sabermetric-friendly team, but they do have a little bit of the Oakland A's philosophy for a small market. The Brewers under Melvin consistently make unpopular decisions with players to avoid locking them up to bad contracts that hurt the team. Instead, they'll buy out arbitration years for a player, insuring cost certainty and rewarding young guys before they may be overpaid. Exhibit one is Ryan Braun.

Certainly, the biggest deficiency with the club is starting pitching. Melvin has shown a knack for making big moves (CC), regardless of his position as a small market team. He's also done a good job of drafting by talent and not positional needs (Matt LaPorta, anyone?). The obvious plus side of this is Melvin can then trade for pitching with his talent surplus. It will be interesting to see if Melvin can keep the pipeline going for the Brewers and tinker around the edges enough to get a winner.

Pittsburgh Pirates

GM Neil Huntington

Tenure: Since September 2007 (2 seasons)

Notes: Here is the crux of my argument. The Pirates are without a doubt the worst-run franchise in the National League. For years, they have been incompetent, both in the draft, in trades and in fielding winning ball clubs. Who can forget Randall Simon viciously attacking that poor Bratwurst in Milwaukee? Just horrible. Still, Huntington has done a great job of reversing this trend. He correctly indentified assets that were expendible, seems to have valued his minor leaguers correctly and his only big misstep so far has been the Bay trade. The big deal with the Yankees netted the Buccos a solid starter in Ross Ohlendorff and a young outfielder in Jose Tabata (who hasn't panned out). The Bay deal saw an iffy Andy LaRoche, a reliever (Craig Hanson) and a fourth or fifth outfielder (Brandon Moss) traded for one of the best left fielders in baseball.

Of course, if the Pirates had let Bay walk after the season like the Red Sox have, they'd be roundly criticized. The organization seems to be headed in the right direction. Count me as still skeptical, though, even with present evidence to the contrary.

St. Louis Cardinals

GM John Mozeliak

Tenure: Since 2008 (2 seasons)

Notes: Mozeliak took over a team that didn't have much to work with outside of a couple big money players (Pujols, Rolen, Carpenter) and a ton of farm talent. He's tinkered around the edges well and leaned heavily on his manager and pitching coach's reputations to slot in marginal guys into productive roles. Mozeliak stuck by Colby Rasmus through early slumps and made a big-ticket acquisition of Matt Holliday.

There are conflicting reports about his style, but it seems like he appreciates what the stats can tell him about the game and uses it to some degree. Yet, his philosophy seems to be grating on the older school ideas of Tony LaRussa. Combine that with his cold-blooded trade of Dave Duncan's son, Chris, and he's done quite a bit to alienate two of the most important cogs to the Cardinals machine for the past decade. Not that I'm complaining.

There are both good and bad qualities here, but I don't think we can judge Mozeliak fairly until he's out from under LaRussa's considerable shadow (the man's a genius, after all).

Houston Astros

GM Ed Wade

Tenure: Since September 2007 (2 seasons)

Notes: So, the thing about Ed Wade is he can't trade. I said some nice things in the past about the job he did leading up to this past season, but after reviewing his track record in Philly, I have a suggestion. Ed Wade needs to hire some smart, baseball-savvy mind to be his trade manager. Like a salary-cap manager in football, this person would handle all the ramifications of trades (scouting players, balance, contracts, etc.) and give his best recommendation to Wade. Only then could the big man sign off.

If you think I exaggerate, look at his transactions. Here's a link to Baseball-Reference's transaction page starting in 1998. Wade took over in January of that year. In his entire Philly tenure, he made two good trades: Billy Wagner and Kenny Lofton. Every other trade he made was a bloodbath. Eric Milton? He gave up Nick Punto and Carlos Silva. Scott Rolen? He got Placido Polanco and that's it. He traded Curt Schilling for nothing. He traded away a young Adam Eaton for a declining Andy Ashby. He traded two young pitchers for two relievers and Ron Gant. Who thought this was a good idea? In fact, Wade's history is chock-full of trades for relievers. It's the position he enjoys tinkering with most on the team. Unfortunately, relievers are fungible, and trading for them wastes cheap assets.

Thus, why I had the idea of a trade manager. I'm sure someone like Paul DiPodesta or Kevin Towers wouldn't mind being the Astros full-time trade scout, right? Either one would be imminently more qualified than Wade to make these kinds of decisions. And yes, I realize that Wade has made some decent trades with the Astros. Sticking to the numbers, though? That streak may not last forever.

Purple Row Awards: National League Rookie of the Year Award

Russ Oates — Tue, 20 Oct 2009 16:00:33 -0000

Our voting for the National League Rookie of the Year was close at the top. The winner appeared on five of the six ballots, and the second-place winner appeared on five of the six ballots as well. There wasn't much love for any Rockies rookies, though one player received a third-place vote.

Without further ado, the top three for Purple Row's National League Rookie of the Year Award after the jump

1st Place - Chris Coghlan

#8 / Left Field / Florida Marlins

Height: 6-1

Weight: 195

Bats: L

Throws: R

Born: Jun 18, 1985

	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG
2009	128	504	84	162	31	6	9	47	53	77	8	5	.321	.390	.460

2nd Place - Andrew McCutchen

#22 / Center Field / Pittsburgh Pirates

Height: 5-11

Weight: 175

Bats: R

Throws: R

Born: Oct 10, 1986

	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG
2009	108	433	74	124	26	9	12	54	54	83	22	5	.286	.365	.471

3rd Place - Tommy Hanson

#48 / Pitcher / Atlanta Braves

Height: 6-6

Weight: 220

Bats: R

Throws: R

Born: Aug 28, 1986

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009	11-4	21	21	0	0	0	0	127.2	105	42	41	10	46	116	2.89	1.18

Here's how the full voting went:

NL RoY	RMN	PF	togb	Russ	Silver	Jabbs
1	Andrew McCutchen	Tommy Hanson	Chris Coghlan	Chris Coghlan	Chris Coghlan	Andrew McCutchen
2	Tommy Hanson	Chris Coghlan	Andrew McCutchen	Andrew McCutchen	Tommy Hanson	Colby Rasmus
3	J.A. Happ	Randy Wells	Garrett Jones	Dexter Fowler	Andrew McCutchen	Chris Coghlan

Only ten points separated Coghlan and McCutchen, but with only five votes the future star of the Pirates fell just short of giving his team an award. This prize could have gone either way. Coghlan got on base a bit more than McCutchen, but the Pirate hit for a bit more power. In the long run, McCutchen should be more valuable as he provides a powerful bat, has speed on the basepaths, and plays center field.

Tommy Hanson is also a good choice for Rookie of the Year and should appear in the final results for the official NL RoY Award. With a 2.89 ERA, eleven wins, and 116 K, the Braves found a strong starter for the rotation going forward.

I gave that third-place vote to Dexter Fowler as a vote of confidence in his future.

Tomorrow RockiesMagicNumber (that guy just owns Wednesdays) will unveil our unanimous choice for AL Cy Young.

Dodgers Turn To The Wolf To Get Even

Eric Stephen — Mon, 19 Oct 2009 18:59:15 -0000

More photos » by Matt Slocum - AP

The Wolfman Cometh tonight for the Dodgers

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So, other than that, how was the play last night, Mrs. Lincoln?

If baseball had a football schedule, we would have a week to stew over last night's debacle, but luckily the greatest game on Earth is quick to forgive and forget, as the Dodgers have a chance to quickly erase last night's memory from their minds.

Randy Wolf returns to his old stomping grounds tonight, trying to even the NLCS at two. Wolf was drafted by the Phillies in 1997, and spent his first ten years as a pro in the Phillies' organization. He started the very first game at Citizens Bank Park, in 2004. Manager Joe Torre thought highly enough of Wolf to start him in the NLDS opener against the Cardinals. However, Wolf was inexplicably dropped to fourth in the rotation for the NLCS, but that decision may just pay off just when the Dodgers need it most. Wolf was a rock for the Dodgers this season, leading the club in starts, innings, and quality starts.

Left-handed batters hit just .159/.217/.200 against Wolf this season, striking out in 60 of 185 plate appearances, a stellar 32.4% of the time. In Game 1 against the Cardinals, lefties Skip Schumaker and Colby Rasmus had two hits and two walks in five plate appearances against Wolf. Ryan Howard, who struggled against LHP all season, has a double and two walks in five plate appearances against southpaws in the NLCS, with three runs batted in.

Joe Blanton, who was used in relief in the NLDS, starts tonight for the Phillies. After giving up five runs in five innings in Cincinnati on May 21 (in a win!), Blanton's ERA stood at 7.11, as home plate was always open for the opposition. Since then, however, Blanton really turned it around, going 10-5 with a 3.16 ERA and 4.18 FIP in 23 starts, averaging 6.57 innings per start.

To win tonight, the Dodger offense needs to show up. Over the last two games, the Dodgers have no extra-base hits, and have just two runs and 11 baserunners in total, hitting .145/.190/.145. I keep hearing Citizens Bank Park is a hitter-friendly park, but the Dodgers are doing their best to convince me otherwise. Since the beginning of 2008, the Dodgers have scored just 29 runs in 10 games in Philadelphia, including the playoffs. Nine of those runs came in one game, earlier this season, but other than that runs have been few and far between for the Dodgers in the city of brotherly love. To win tonight and in this series, they need to score, and score often.

A few notes:

Manny Ramirez has 15 hits in 26 at-bats against Blanton, hitting .577/.636/.731 with one home run
James Loney is seven for 10 with a double off Blanton, hitting .700/.750/.800
Andre Ethier has six hits in 14 at-bats, including two solo home runs, against Blanton, hitting .429/.467/.857
Casey Blake has just one single in 23 at-bats against Blanton, hitting .043/.154/.043
Pedro Feliz is five for 19 with three homers off Wolf, hitting .294/.316/.824
Carlos Ruiz if four for six, with two doubles and a home run (shocker, I know) off Wolf, packing a lot of production (.667/.750/1.500) into just eight plate appearances

The Dodgers this postseason are 4-0 when playing on a day with other games scheduled, and 0-2 when they are the lone game on the schedule. The Yankees and Angels play Game 3 of the ALCS today at 1:13pm.

Here are the lineups for Game 4:

Dodgers		Phillies
SS	Furcal	SS	Rollins
CF	Kemp	CF	Victorino
RF	Ethier	2B	Utley
LF	Manny	1B	Howard
1B	Loney	RF	Werth
2B	Belliard	LF	Ibañez
C	Martin	3B	Feliz
3B	Blake	C	Ruiz
P	Wolf	P	Blanton

**********

Check out Xeifrank's simulation of today's game here.

Game Time: 5:07pm

TV: TBS (Chip Caray, Ron Darling, Buck Martinez)

Baseball Reference Game Four Preview

Baseball Bloggers Alliance NL Rookie of the Year Ballot

Slyde — Thu, 15 Oct 2009 14:30:14 -0000

More photos » by Gene J. Puskar - AP

It was a tough choice, but Andrew McCutchen gets my vote for NL Rookie of the Year

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It's time for the NL Rookie of the Year ballot for the Baseball Bloggers Alliance awards. If you are wondering who won the Manager of the Year Awards, it was Jim Tracy in the NL and Mike Scioscia in the AL.

Here's my ballot for NL Rookie of the Year. Let me know what you think in the comments:

1. Andrew McCutchen - Pittsburgh Pirates

McCutchen led all NL rookies in WAR this past season at 3.4, mainly because he played about average defense at a prime defensive position of centerfield. This is what propels him into the award in my book. Good offense from a decent defensive centerfielder is definitely a plus. McCutchen did a lot to improve his chances too with his hitting during the last 3 weeks of the season. Over his last 18 games he batted .377/.463/.565, raising his OPS 37 points over that span.

2. J.A. Happ - Philadelphia Phillies

Happ led all rookie pitchers in ERA+, strikeouts, and wins after going 12-4 with a 2.93 ERA over 166 innings. Doing it all for a team that was on its way to winning the division makes that much more special.

3. Tommy Hanson - Atlanta Braves

Hanson went 11-4 with a 2.89 ERA in 21 big league starts. Despite the fact that he pitched nearly 40 fewer innings than Happ, he only had 3 fewer strikeouts and fell just short of leading NL rookies in wins and ERA+. What's scary is that he's only 22.

Honorable mentions: Garrett Jones - Pirates (led all NL rookies with 149 OPS+ and 21 HR), Chris Coghlan - Marlins (batted .321/.390/.460, but was shaky on defense in LF), Randy Wells - Cubs (12-10, 3.05 ERA), Casey McGehee - Brewers (batted .301/.360/.499, led NL rookies in RBI with 66), Colby Rasmus - Cardinals (batted .251/.307/.407, but played outstanding defense in center field)

So, did I get it right? Who do you think should be the NL Rookie of the Year?

Poll

Who should be the NL Rookie of the Year for 2009?

Chris Coghlan

15 votes

Tommy Hanson

35 votes

J.A. Happ

49 votes

Garrett Jones

11 votes

Andrew McCutchen

42 votes

Casey McGehee

1 votes

Colby Rasmus

3 votes

Randy Wells

6 votes

162 votes | Poll has closed

Dodgers Division Series In Review

Eric Stephen — Sun, 11 Oct 2009 23:06:37 -0000

More photos » by Tom Gannam - AP

Celebration is a wonderful thing

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It was a series pitting two closely matched teams against one another. In a close and short series, taking advantage of opportunities is usually the key, and the Dodgers were able to do that, sweeping away the Cardinals in three games.

The Dodgers faced the tall task of facing Chris Carpenter and Adam Wainwright, who will both likely finish in the top three in NL Cy Young voting, in the first two games, but the Dodgers won them both, the second in improbable fashion with an unlikely ninth-inning comeback.

The Dodgers capitalized on nearly every opportunity, but the Cardinals did not, finishing with four hits in 30 at-bats with runners in scoring position in the series. The Dodger bullpen was an asset, as expected, and the Dodger starters got progressively better in each game.

The Dodgers who lost playoff series to the Cardinals in both 1985 and 2004, plus a regular-season playoff in 1946, were able to exact some measure of revenge with a 3-0 sweep. That the team with the best record in the league and best run differential in baseball won this series was not surprising, but the sweep was an unexpected and sweet result.

Dodger Batter of the Series: Andre Ethier managed to hit just one single in three games, yet still hit .500 for the series. He slammed two home runs, a pair of doubles, and a triple, and fell just a single shy of the cycle in the clinching victory Saturday.

Dodger Pitcher of the Series: This one was an easy call, as Vicente Padilla made his mark in Dodger history with seven scoreless innings in the closeout win in Game 3. Padilla's game was just the eighth in Dodger postseason history with seven or more scoreless innings allowing four hits or fewer.

Series Record: 3-0
13 runs scored (4.33 per game)
6 runs allowed (2.00 per game)
.805 pythagorean winning percentage

Overall Seasonal Record: 98-67 (.594)
793 runs scored (4.81 per game)
617 runs allowed (3.74 per game)
.613 pythagorean winning percentage (101-64)

Game 1 Key Moments

In the top of the first inning, the Cardinals got the first three men on base, the last via intentional walk to Albert Pujols. Looking at the run expectancy matrix from Baseball Prospectus, the Cardinals would be expected to score 2.28 runs in the inning, and probably more with Matt Holliday, Ryan Ludwick, and Yadier Molina coming up. However, the Cardinals scored just one run, and that was on a botched pop fly by Ronnie Belliard behind second base. After a very long top of the inning, the Dodgers immediately answered. A Rafael Furcal single was followed by a Matt Kemp laser beam home run to center, and the Dodgers never looked back.
Randy Wolf was ineffective, and couldn't get out of the fourth inning. Jeff Weaver entered with two outs and the bases loaded, and pulled his Weaver magic yet again, getting Ryan Ludwick to ground back to the box to end the inning with the 3-2 lead preserved. In the regular season, opposing batters had just one hit in 20 at-bats against Weaver with the sacks jacked.

Game 2 Key Moments

Adam Wainwright pitched a great game in Game Two, and was cruising early, retiring the first 11 Dodgers. That is, until Ethier took him deep to tie the game at one.
With the game tied at one in the sixth inning, Joe Torre let Clayton Kershaw bat with one out. Kershaw was at 97 pitches, and although Kershaw has earned the right to be set free from his pitch count shackles at this point in the season, the Dodger bullpen is too strong not to utilize. Any advantage of Kershaw pitching over Ronald Belisario or Ramon Troncoso is greatly outweighed by the gain in having a real hitter at the plate in place of Kershaw. After grounding out in the sixth, Kershaw allowed the go-ahead run in the seventh.
On the Colby Rasmus RBI double, with nobody out, James Loney alertly cutoff the throw in the infield and nailed Rasmus at third base with one out, helping limit the Cardinals to one run in the inning.
Down one in the eighth inning, Torre used his best reliever, Jonathan Broxton, to face the all-righty heart of the lineup of Pujols, Holliday, and Ludwick. Broxton retired all three, not allowing a ball hit out of the infield, to keep the Dodgers close.
With two outs down 2-1 in the ninth, James Loney lofted an easy game-ending soft liner to left, only to have Matt Holliday misplay it, the ball hitting off his groin as Loney ended up at second base. While that play would have certainly ended the game, it's important to note the Cardinals still had an 86.7% win expectancy after the misplay.
Casey Blake drew a nine-pitch walk, leading to a game-tying single by Ronnie Belliard, who has supplanted Orlando Hudson as the regular second baseman.
After a walk to Russell Martin, Mark Loretta came through with the biggest hit of his career, ending a six-for-46 pinch hitting drought with a walk-off single, the Dodgers' 13th walk-off win of the season.

Game 3 Key Moments

The Cardinals again loaded the bases in the first inning, this time with two outs, but Vicente Padilla ended the only real scoring threat against him by inducing an inning-ending groundout by Yadier Molina.
Holding a 1-0 advantage in the third inning, Andre Ethier provided some breathing room for the Dodgers with a bomb to right field, a two-run home run to extend the lead to 3-0.
Jonathan Broxton struck out Rick Ankiel, finishing the series with a 101-mph fastball to end the Cardinals season.

Not Gonna Beat Us: The first three times Albert Pujols came to the plate with a runner in scoring position, Joe Torre decided to intentionally walk the best player in the game. Pujols was limited to one run batted in during the series, and that came with the Cardinals down five runs in the eighth inning of Game 3.

Run Record: Andre Ethier scored five runs in the series, tying the Dodger record for a division series. Manny Ramirez had five runs scored last year against the Cubs. Ethier did set the Dodger record for most extra-base hits in a division series, with five.

A Slight Concern: Matt Kemp hit his first career playoff home run in his first at-bat of the series in Game 1. However, after that, Kemp had just one hit in 13 at-bats, and had eight strikeouts.

Along For The Ride: The home opener this season had two stars -- well, three including Vin Scully -- Chad Billingsley, with his 11 strikeouts over seven innings, and Orlando Hudson, with the second cycle in LA Dodger history. Both made the National League All-Star team this year. Yet, their contribution this series was almost nil. Billingsley, who was scheduled to pitch a fourth game if needed, didn't pitch an inning, and Hudson didn't get a plate appearance, although he was used as a defensive replacement or pinch runner in all three games.

Game By Game Results:

Next Series: The Dodgers open the NLCS Thursday at Dodger Stadium, against either the Rockies or Phillies.

NLDS Stats

Player	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SB/CS	BA/OBP/SLG	OPS	BABIP
Ethier	12	5	6	2	1	2	3	1	0/0	.500/.571/1.333	1.905	.500
Furcal	12	2	6	0	1	0	2	1	0/0	.500/.500/.667	1.167	.500
Manny	13	0	4	3	0	0	2	1	0/0	.308/.357/.538	.896	.364
Blake	11	1	3	0	0	0	1	2	0/0	.273/.385/.273	.657	.300
Belliard	11	2	3	0	0	0	1	2	0/0	.273/.385/.273	.657	.500
Loney	12	0	3	0	0	0	0	1	0/0	.250/.308/.250	.558	.273
Kemp	14	2	2	0	0	1	2	0	0/0	.143/.143/.357	.500	.200
Martin	9	0	1	0	0	0	1	3	0/0	.111/.385/.111	.496	.125
Starters	94	12	28	5	2	3	12	11	0/0	.298/.380/.489	.869	.352
Loretta	1	0	1	0	0	0	1	0	0/0	1.000/1.000/1.000	2.000	1.000
Thome	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0/0	.000/.333/.000	.333	.000
Hudson	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0/0	-----/-----/-----	-----	-----
Pierre	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0/0	-----/-----/-----	-----	-----
Bench	3	1	1	0	0	0	1	0	0/0	.333/.500/.333	.833	.500
Pitchers	8	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0/0	.000/.000/.000	.000	.000
Totals	105	13	29	5	2	3	13	11	0/0	.276/.358/.448	.806	.329

Pitcher	G	W-L	Sv	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	ERA	WHIP	FIP
Padilla	1	1-0	--	7.0	4	0	0	1	4	0.00	0.714	2.44
Kershaw	1	0-0	--	6.2	9	2	2	1	4	2.70	1.500	3.90
Wolf	1	0-0	--	3.2	6	2	2	5	2	4.91	3.000	5.33
Starters	3	1-0	--	17.1	19	4	4	7	10	2.08	1.500	3.61
Kuo	1	0-0	--	1.0	2	0	0	0	2	0.00	2.000	-0.85
Broxton	3	0-0	1	3.2	4	1	1	0	4	2.45	1.091	0.97
Weaver	1	1-0	--	1.1	1	0	0	0	1	0.00	0.750	1.65
Belisario	2	0-0	--	1.1	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.000	3.15
Sherrill	3	1-0	--	2.1	1	1	1	1	0	3.86	0.857	5.72
Relievers	3	2-0	1	9.2	8	2	2	1	7	1.86	0.931	2.32
Totals	3	3-0	1	27.0	27	6	6	8	17	2.00	1.296	3.15

Dodgers, Cardinals Set Rosters for NLDS

Eric Stephen — Wed, 07 Oct 2009 18:31:23 -0000

More photos » by Jae C. Hong - AP

Emperor Palpatine takes questions before tonight's game

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NLDS: Cardinals vs. Dodgers
Game 1	Tonight	Dodger Stadium	6:37pm
Game 2	Thu	Dodger Stadium	3:07pm
Game 3	Sat	Busch Stadium	3:07pm
Game 4*	Sun	Busch Stadium	TBD
Game 5*	Oct 13	Dodger Stadium	TBD
*if necessary		All times Pacific
All games televised on TBS

The Dodgers and Cardinals have announced their roster for the division series.

Dodgers

Catchers (2): Russell Martin, Brad Ausmus

Infielders (7): James Loney, Ronnie Belliard, Rafael Furcal, Casey Blake, Orlando Hudson, Juan Castro, Mark Loretta

Outfielders (4): Manny Ramirez, Matt Kemp, Andre Ethier, Juan Pierre

Pinch Hitters (1): Jim Thome

Starting Pitchers (4): Randy Wolf, Clayton Kershaw, Vicente Padilla, Chad Billingsley

Relievers (7): Jonathan Broxton, George Sherrill, Hong-Chih Kuo, Ronald Belisario, Ramon Troncoso, Jon Garland, Jeff Weaver

Cardinals

Catchers (2): Yadier Molina, Jason LaRue

Infielders (7): Albert Pujols, Skip Schumaker, Julio Lugo, Brendan Ryan, Mark DeRosa, Troy Glaus, Old Friend Joe Thurston

Outfielders (4): Matt Holliday, Colby Rasmus, Ryan Ludwick, Rick Ankiel

Starting Pitchers (4): Chris Carpenter, Adam Wainwright, Joel Pineiro, one of John Smoltz or Kyle Lohse

Relievers (8): Ryan Franklin, Kyle McClellan, Jason Motte, Trever Miller, Dennys Reyes, Blake Hawksworth, Mitchell Boggs, one of Smoltz or Lohse

The Dodgers starting rotation will be Randy Wolf, Clayton Kershaw, Vicente Padilla, and Chad Billingsley, in that order.

The Cardinals will counter with Chris Carpenter, Adam Wainwright, and Joel Pineiro for the first three games. Either John Smoltz or Kyle Lohse, who will both be available in the bullpen tonight, will start game four on Sunday.

The Dodgers & Their Postseason Roster

Eric Stephen — Mon, 05 Oct 2009 19:00:24 -0000

More photos » by Mark J. Terrill - AP

Will Doug Mientkiewicz be on the active roster come Wednesday?

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The rosters for the division series don't need to be turned in until 10am on Wednesday, but here's a look at the likely Dodger NLDS active roster. Keep in mind, this is what I think the Dodgers will do, not necessarily what I would want them to do.

NLDS: Cardinals vs. Dodgers
Game 1	Wed	Dodger Stadium	6:37pm
Game 2	Thu	Dodger Stadium	likely 3:07pm
Game 3	Sat	Busch Stadium	3:07pm
Game 4*	Sun	Busch Stadium	TBD
Game 5*	Oct 13	Dodger Stadium	TBD
*if necessary		All times Pacific
All games televised on TBS

First, the locks:

Catchers (2)
Russell Martin, Brad Ausmus

Infielders (7)
James Loney, Orlando Hudson, Rafael Furcal, Casey Blake, Ronnie Belliard, Juan Castro, Mark Loretta

Outfielders (4)
Manny Ramirez, Matt Kemp, Andre Ethier, Juan Pierre

Starting Pitchers (2)
Randy Wolf, Clayton Kershaw

Relief Pitchers (5)
Jonathan Broxton, George Sherrill, Hong-Chih Kuo, Ronald Belisario, Ramon Troncoso

That leaves five spots:

Lefty Pinch-Hitter (1)
Jim Thome has struggled as a pinch hitter, both this season and in his career. He has four singles in 17 at-bats as a Dodger. He can't run, because he's slow and because he has a bad foot. He can't play first base, because of chronic back problems. Yet I believe he will make the roster over Doug Mientkiewicz, simply because Thome represents the threat of power, something lacking on the Dodger bench. Mientkiewicz would be a fine choice for a spot, especially if his shoulder is healed enough to play first base if needed, and in fact I would take him over Loretta, but I don't think that will happen.

Starting Pitchers (2)
Three guys are fighting for two spots, to start games three and four. Joe Torre hasn't officially named his starters for those games yet, but based on other comments he has made, I believe Chad Billingsley will start game three as long as he gets through his simulated game today in Arizona without any problems. That leaves Vicente Padilla and Jon Garland fighting for the other two spots. Padilla has pitched better of late, but over the course of the season, they were pretty similar pitchers (4.46 FIP for Padilla, 4.48 for Garland). I believe Padilla will be the choice to start Sunday in St. Louis.

Relief Pitchers (2)
I think Garland gets the nod as the long man in the pen, leaving Jeff Weaver out in the cold. That leaves one more bullpen spot, which I think will go to James McDonald, over Guillermo Mota and Scott Elbert. McDonald had a good season as a reliever, after a shaky start in the rotation, posting a 2.72 ERA and a 3.41 FIP from the bullpen. Over the last two months, McDonald has passed Mota on the depth chart, even when Mota was fully healthy. The other viable option is Elbert, because the Cardinals struggle so much against left-handed pitchers. However, the Cardinals really only have three lefty batters: Skip Schumaker, Colby Rasmus, and Rick Ankiel. Their struggles with southpaws are largely due to their right handers failing to hit them (hitting .244/.328/.392), and I don't think Torre would use Elbert to face a righty, regardless of how they hit lefties. If the Dodgers were facing the Phillies, Elbert would have been more likely to make the roster, simply because they have more left handed batters Elbert could face in a LOOGY situation.

That's my prediction for the NLDS roster. What's yours?

A Brief Look At The Cardinals

Eric Stephen — Mon, 05 Oct 2009 13:00:36 -0000

More photos » by David Zalubowski - AP

Matt Holliday really, really likes playing in the National League

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NLDS: Cardinals vs. Dodgers
Game 1	Wed	Dodger Stadium	6:37pm
Game 2	Thu	Dodger Stadium	likely 3:07pm
Game 3	Sat	Busch Stadium	3:07pm
Game 4*	Sun	Busch Stadium	TBD
Game 5*	Oct 13	Dodger Stadium	TBD
*if necessary		All times Pacific
All games televised on TBS

Here is a brief first impression of the St. Louis Cardinals, who will travel to Dodger Stadium to start the division series on Wednesday.

The Cardinals can't hit left-handed pitching

On the season, the Cardinals had the worst OPS in all of baseball against southpaws, hitting .234/.312/.363. However, back in July they bolstered their roster by adding right-handed hitters Matt Holliday, Mark DeRosa, and Julio Lugo. They have helped, but this is still a weakness to exploit. July 24 was Holliday's first game in Cardinal Red, and from that day forward, the club hit .250/.324/.374 against lefties.

With Randy Wolf and Clayton Kershaw starting in the first two games of the series, and Hong-Chih Kuo and George Sherrill waiting to drop the hammer in the later innings, look for the Dodger lefties make a huge impact in this series.

Chris Carpenter and Adam Wainwright are really, really good

Chris Carpenter and Adam Wainwright, who will likely each finish in the top three in National League Cy Young voting, have started a total of 62 games. The Cardinals have won 41 of those games. Carpenter led the National League in ERA with a 2.24 mark, and Wainwright wasn't far behind at 2.63. They were sixth and seventh in the NL in x-FIP, at 3.46 and 3.45, respectively. Both were in the top ten in baseball in innings per start, at 6.9 each.

Carpenter has pitched seven innings or longer in 18 of 28 starts, and gave up more than three runs in a game just three times all season. He's also a control artist, having walked more than two batters only thrice this year. Wainwright pitched seven innings or more in 21 of 34 starts, and allowed more than three runs only seven times.

Don't forget about Joel Pineiro

Cardinals' pitching coach Dave Duncan should bottle whatever magic potion he used on Joel Pineiro, because Pineiro has turned in the finest season of his career. Pineiro doesn't strike out anyone -- his 4.3 strikeouts per nine innings is 86th among 87 MLB pitchers who qualified for the ERA title -- but he does just about everything else well.

Pineiro led baseball with an absurdly low 1.12 walks per nine innings, and his rate of 0.43 home runs per nine is second in baseball. Bad news for Dodger fans is that number one in homers allowed per nine innings is Carpenter, at 0.33. I would really love to explain Pineiro's success as luck or a fluke, but his x-FIP is an impressive 3.73, good for 10th in the National League, giving the Cardinals three starters with a better x-FIP than the Dodger-best 3.94 of Clayton Kershaw.

Outside of the big two, this lineup can be pitched to

Albert Pujols is the best player in baseball, and will provide a steady dose of anxiety for Dodger fans this entire series. Matt Holliday has been superb since coming back to the National League. These two we know about, with their .451 and .421 wOBA, respectively. However, the rest of the lineup features no real threat. Nobody else features an OPS+ above 105, and the next highest wOBA on the team are Julio Lugo at .347 (he's at .339 on the season including his Boston numbers), and Yadier Molina and Ryan Ludwick at .337 each, barely above league average. I realize the same can be said about the Dodger lineup, but color me unimpressed by anyone outside the 3-4 spots in red. If the situation comes up again where Hong Chih-Kuo or another Dodger pitcher needs to walk both Pujols and Holliday to retire an inferior hitter, sign me up for another strikeout of Ludwick or Rick Ankiel, or someone similar.

Rick Ankiel is Jeff Francoeur with a better backstory

I liked Rick Ankiel the pitcher. I was sad when he lost the ability to throw strikes. I loved the fact that he was able to make it back to the majors as a position player. It was a great, feel good story for a while. But it's over. Ankiel is hitting .231/.283/.387 this season. Rookie Colby Rasmus, meanwhile, is hitting .253/.308/.411. Plus/minus rates them about even defensively (-1 for Ankiel, -2 for Rasmus in about double the innings), while Ultimate Zone Rating shows a wider gap (Rasmus at +11.2 UZR/150, Ankiel at -10.1). St. Louis Post-Dispatch columnist Bernie Miklasz was a guest on Sunday's postgame DodgerTalk on KABC, and he mentioned the Cardinals might consider starting Ankiel against the Dodgers' two lefty starting pitchers in the first two games (both Ankiel and Rasmus bat from the left side), because the club feels Ankiel hits lefties better. A closer look at the numbers reveals a reason:

Player	PA	BA/OBP/SLG	BABIP
Ankiel	98	.234/.265/.298	.338
Rasmus	113	.163/.223/.260	.189

It seems to me the difference in their performance against lefties can be explained by luck, as Rasmus' batting average on balls in play is remarkably low. The bottom line is that Ankiel is a replacement level player (at 0.0 Wins Above Replacement), and any time he takes away from Rasmus this series is great news for the Dodgers.

**********

Rosters don't have to be submitted until 10am on Wednesday, but it appears the Cardinals will carry 12 pitchers, according to Joe Strauss of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch.

Viva El Birdos is the Cardinals' blog on SB Nation. Be sure to check their site for in-depth analysis of the Cardinals. For instance, here is a thorough review by chuckb of the most valuable Cardinals in 2009.

This series will be close, and as we have seen in previous years, the results of the series can change at the drop of a hat. A grand slam here, a throwing error there, and the series changes direction in a heartbeat.

Playoff Teams Defense Analysis - How They Got There and What to Expect - National League Edition

Jeff Zimmerman (TucsonRoyal) — Sat, 03 Oct 2009 23:18:58 -0000

With the increased emphasis on defense the last few years, I figured I would look at what playoff teams did statistically during the season and what can be expected of the teams in the playoffs. We will begin with the National League and look at the American League in a day or two once Minnesota and Detroit figure who is going. For this analysis, I will be using UZR data from from Fangraphs.com. Fangraphs updates their data on Mondays, so this article doesn't contain the most recent week's fielding data, but should still give a general idea of the teams' defensive strengths and weaknesses.

First, here is the totals of all the NL teams in the playoffs:

As it can be seen, the Phillies defense this season was the best of the four teams with them saving about 40 more runs than the Rockies with the Dodgers and Cardinals just a little better than the Rockies.

Besides the team totals, the UZR can be broken down to individual positions. Here is a comparison of each of the 4 teams by position totals.

The major point I got from this comparison is that most of the teams were rather even except for the holes in the Colorado outfield.

Even though these graphs show how a team did during the season, it doesn't show what to expect in the post season. For example, the Cardinals picked up Matt Holiday at the trading deadline. Matt will be for sure in the Cards lineup and the defense of the previous players shouldn't matter. For each team, I went ahead and calculated the true UZR value of each player projected to start in the playoffs.

For those that need to know, it was a 5-4-3-2 weighted average of season values and regressed to 125 games with no final age adjustment. For example, Albert Pujols had a 1.8 UZR for 2009, but taking into account his previous seasons his true talent level is near 6.4 UZR.

So here is a look at each team's 2009 numbers and the weighted UZR values of the players expected to play during the post season (I will add more as needed - when injuries happen or if I happened to miss someone). These values show the true talent of the fielders better than the small sample set of a single season.

Philadelphia Phillies (2009 UZR Results and Weighted UZR Values)

Pos	Name	UZR
1B	Ryan Howard	1.8
2B	Chase Utley	12.0
3B	Pedro Feliz	8.8
SS	Jimmy Rollins	6.1
LF	Raul Ibanez	-5.6
CF	Shane Victorino	0.1
RF	Jayson Werth	5.7

LA Dodgers (2009 UZR Results and Weighted UZR Values)

Pos	Name	UZR
1B	James Loney	-1.9
2B	Orlando Hudson	-2.3
3B	Casey Blake	-0.1
SS	Rafael Furcal	0.3
LF	Juan Pierre	1.7
LF	Manny Ramirez	-8.6
CF	Matt Kemp	2.0
RF	Andre Ethier	-5.9

St. Louis Cardinals (2009 UZR Results and Weighted UZR Values)

Pos	Name	UZR
1B	Albert Pujols	6.4
2B	Joe Thurston	0.5
2B	Skip Schumaker	-4.1
3B	Joe Thurston	-0.1
3B	Mark DeRosa	-1.2
SS	Khalil Greene	-2.8
SS	Brendan Ryan	5.3
LF	Matt Holliday	5.1
CF	Rick Ankiel	-2.2
CF	Colby Rasmus	4.5
RF	Ryan Ludwick	1.6

Colorado Rockies (2009 UZR Results and Weighted UZR Values)

Pos	Name	UZR
1B	Todd Helton	2.2
1B	Garrett Atkins	-1.3
2B	Clint Barmes	3.5
3B	Garrett Atkins	-5.6
3B	Ian Stewart	2.4
SS	Troy Tulowitzki	3.1
LF	Ryan Spilborghs	0.9
LF	Seth Smith	2.8
LF	Carlos Gonzalez	1.1
CF	Dexter Fowler	-6.1
CF	Carlos Gonzalez	1.8
RF	Brad Hawpe	-18.1
RF	Ryan Spilborghs	0.1

------------------------------------------------------------------

First, thanks to Justin for supplying the graphics and let me know if any players might be seeing playing time in the first 2 rounds. I am not going to go through all possible lineups once the DH is added and removed in the World Series until two teams qualify.