SB Nation - Nick Stavinoha

Andy Pettitte is Slightly Above Average

Tommy Bennett — Sat, 31 Oct 2009 16:00:35 -0000

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	FIP	WAR
2009 - Andy Pettitte	14-8	32	32	0	0	0	0	194.2	193	101	90	20	76	148	4.15	3.3

Andy Pettitte is, at this point in his career, a slightly above average pitcher. That, of course, is quite valuable. Much of his value is tied up in his ability to throw lots of innings at an above-average, but not elite, rate. Let's take a brief look at his career so far.

Andy Pettitte was born in Baton Rouge, Louisiana, but spent much of his childhood years in Deer Park, Texas (just outside of Houston). He attended San Jacinto College (which counts among its alumni also Roger Clemens, Mike Gonzalez, Jesse Crain, Matt Albers, and Nick Stavinoha; go Gators!) for one year before being signed by the New York Yankees as an amateur free agent in 1991.

Other than the three years he spent in Houston from 2004 to 2006, Pettitte has been a Yankee his entire career. In that time, he has been consistently above average.

Interestingly, he has never posted an FIP worse than league average. Here's a comparison between Pettitte and league average FIP over the course of his career:

He came pretty close there in 1999, but his 4.67 FIP bested the league's 4.71 mark by a hair's breadth. It's interesting to note that Pettitte's numbers track the movements of the league average pitcher--at least the ups and downs--pretty closely. Perhaps we should call Andy Pettitte a cyclical pitcher. He is at least a bellwether.

Pettitte has done it primarily with four pitches: fast ball, cutter, change up, curve ball. His cutter has traditionally been his strongest offering, and this year was no exception. According to FanGraphs' pitch values, his cutter was worth 2.5 runs above average per 100 pitches.

Pettitte displays a small platoon split. For his career, right handed batters have hit .270/.329/.400 against him, while lefties have notched a .271/.318/.393 line. The real difference comes in the number of strikeouts, as he has a 19.2% K rate versus lefties and just a 16.7% mark against righties. Similarly, he walks fewer batters against his fellow southpaws: 5.7% against 7.9% facing righties.

It is interesting the splits have not manifested themselves in the triple-slash line. My guess is that his cutter allows him to induce more ground balls from righties than lefties, counteracting in part the K and BB rates. His GDP rate against righties is 2.8%, while it is just 1.8% against lefties.

Television announcers will no doubt tell you all about how Philadelphia's lefties struggle against southpaws--but don't be fooled, Pettitte has plenty of weapons against the right-handed batters as well.

This is Pettitte's eighth career World Series. His signature stare will once again show up on prime-time television.

Relief Is The Dodger Theme Of The Day

Eric Stephen — Fri, 31 Jul 2009 05:09:37 -0000

More photos » by Tom Gannam - AP

The Bison delivered big in the 10th inning tonight, giving the Dodgers a 5-3 win.

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The overriding theme of the day for the Dodgers on Thursday was relief. The day concluded with a 5-3 win -- finally -- over the Cardinals, a relief for the club, who had lost 17 of their previous 20 games in Mound City. But before that result, the day was so filled with relief that it should have been sponsored by Rolaids®.

Earlier in the day, the Dodgers picked up talented lefty reliever George Sherrill, for third baseman Josh Bell and pitcher Steve Johnson, providing the Dodger bullpen with some extra depth in the back end. Sherrill will join the club Friday in Atlanta.

Hiroki Kuroda had his second good outing in a row, allowing only two runs in his six innings of work. It seemed like Kuroda could have pitched much longer, having thrown only 72 pitches, but the struggling Dodger offense needed all the help it could get, so Joe Torre sent Juan Pierre to pinch-hit in the seventh inning. The move paid off, as Pierre singled and later scored on Rafael Furcal's two-run double.

In a tie game in the eighth inning, Dodger fans breathed a sigh of relief at the return of Hong-Chih Kuo. Kuo entered the game after a Nick Stavinoha's leadoff double. After a sacrifice to advance the runner, Kuo blew away pinch-hitter Ryan Ludwick, setting up a potential showdown with Albert Pujols with two outs. However, rather than summon a righthander to face Pujols, Kuo had his Rick Vaughn "I want Parkman" moment, intentionally walking both Pujols and Matt Holliday to face lefty Rick Ankiel, who had homered in his last at-bat, with the bases loaded. Three electrifying fastballs later, and Kuo got out of the jam with a clutch strikeout. Since his return this week, Kuo has faced ten batters. Outside of the two intentional walks, Kuo has retired all eight batters, three by strikeout.

Matt Kemp had three hits and three RBI, including both a run-scoring single in the second inning and an eventual game-winning two-run single in the 10th, giving the Dodgers some much-needed success with runners in scoring position.

Casey Blake had four hits, giving him seven hits over the last two games.

The four game losing streak is over, and the Dodgers are leaving St. Louis. For that, we breathe a sigh of relief.

Jason Schmidt faces Tommy Hanson Friday in Atlanta.

WP - James McDonald (3-2): 1 perfect IP

LP - Dennys Reyes (0-2): 0.1 IP, 1 hit, 2 runs, 1 walk, 1 strikeout

Sv - Jonathan Broxton (24): 1 IP, 1 walk

Box Score

Astros offense explodes, the bullpen implodes, but Wandy still gets the W: Cards 6 — Astros 11

DyingQuail — Wed, 22 Jul 2009 03:46:40 -0000

More photos » by David J. Phillip - AP

Sa-sa-sa-sa-saaaaa-see-ya

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We could almost just go ahead and gloss over the first six innings of this game because it wasn't until the seventh that this one got...interesting is about the mildest way to put it. Wandy didn't have his best stuff in the first few innings, but he dialed it in to cruise through 7IP and even contributed offensively in what would be an explosive bottom of the seventh.

Let's break it down:

Wandy Rodriguez's line: 7IP, 4H, 1R, 1ER, 5K, 0BB with 6GB and 10FB on 104 pitches (71 strikes).
Hunter Pence started the Astros off with a 2-run HR in the second to give the Astros a lead they would never relinquish (try as Chad Paronto might, though).
Miguel Tejada was 2/5 with 3 RBIs on two singles and a sac fly.
Chris Coste did an admirable job standing in for Lance Berkman with an RBI double in the fourth and played solid defense.
Carlos Lee hit a 316 foot grand slam to ice—or what seemed like icing at the time—the Cardinals after TLR ordered an IBB of Miguel Tejada. Way to make'em pay big guy.
Geoff Blum had an amazing snare to rob Jason LaRue of a double in the top of the seventh and hit a homerun in the bottom of the frame before Carlos Lee could even finish his curtain call.

Chad Paronto entered the 8th in what looked like a ball game that was over, but oh it wasn't. Oh was it not:

Brendan Ryan doubled a ball that caromed off the Crawford Boxes and made Carlos Lee look a little silly in the field.
Skip Schumaker walked and then a passed ball advanced Ryan to third.
Nick Stavinoha hit a sac fly to score Ryan.
In stepped Albert Pujols which was nerve racking, but a 1B to left limited the damage to runners at first and second.
Ryan Ludwick clocked a HR.
Mark DeRosa tattooed his second HR of the night into our bullpen off Wesley Wright.
Thankfully the Cardinals bullpen hasn't heard of momentum and Miguel Tejada's sac fly was able to take the proverbial wind out of the Cardinals proverbial sails. I was kind of hoping that TLR would sucker punch Dennys Reyes when he pulled him.

The good news in all of that is that it really had no real impact on our odds of winning the game. Going into the 8th the Astros had a 99.9% chance of winning, and the low point after DeRosa bomb was 97.6%. See for yourself:

via www.fangraphs.com

With the Cubs extra inning loss to the Phillies and the Astros series clinching victory (how's that for the keynote address I was looking for?) here's how the NL Central shakes out:

NL Central Standings

	W	L	PCT	GB	STRK
St. Louis	51	45	.531	0	Lost 2
Houston	48	46	.510	2	Won 2
Milwaukee	48	46	.510	2	Won 1
Chicago	47	45	.510	2	Lost 2
Cincinnati	44	48	.478	5	Lost 1
Pittsburgh	41	52	.440	8.5	Lost 1

(updated 7.21.2009 at 10:42 PM CDT)

With Roy on the mound tomorrow against Carpenter, the great match-up will have a lot riding on it (we could be one game out!!!!).

Cardinals vs Astros boxscore ; Cardinals vs Astros recap ; Cardinals vs Astros coverage ; Viva El Birdos

Cubs In Splitsville: Zambrano, Hoffpauir Homer In 7-3 Game One Win; Ludwick Goes Deep Twice Off Wells In 4-2 Nightcap Loss

Al — Mon, 13 Jul 2009 12:43:37 -0000

More photos » by Paul Beaty - AP

Homers decided both games Sunday; this is Micah Hoffpauir's three-run contribution.

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Nine hours, 81,245 fans and countless beers after Wrigley Field opened for business on Sunday, the Cubs wound up exactly where they started -- at .500 and 3.5 games out of first place -- following a day-night doubleheader split. The Cubs won the first game convincingly 7-3 and dropped game two 4-2, in part because of a strange strike zone from plate umpire Marvin Hudson.

For once, weather wasn't an issue; despite early predictions of scattered showers in the evening, the sun was shining brightly all afternoon and the sky was clear at night.

Carlos Zambrano threw six solid innings -- having only one frame (the third) where he lost his command, and that resulted in the Cardinals tying the game after Micah Hoffpauir parked a three-run homer deep into the right-field bleachers in the first inning. Z got the Cubs the lead back to stay an inning later when he hit his third homer of the season (and 19th of his career). The 19 home runs ties Z with former White Sox pitcher Gary Peters for 14th place on the all-time pitcher home run list. The career record is 37, held by Wes Ferrell, who pitched mostly for Cleveland, Boston and Washington in the 1930's. (Ferrell hit 38 career HR; one was as a pinch-hitter, and it was memorable: a three-run walkoff on June 21, 1935.)

Digression over; after Z's homer he settled down on the mound, too, retiring the last ten batters he faced (yes, one of them, Albert Pujols, reached base when Ryan Theriot dropped his popup, but then Theriot threw him out trying to take second). Sean Marshall, Carlos Marmol (who looked pretty good even with one walk) and Kevin Gregg finished up -- the Cardinals got only one hit over the last six innings, and the Cub first-game starting lineup, which resembled something you might see in spring training, tacked on three more runs in the eighth, mainly thanks to a pair of St. Louis errors.

So after a few of us went down the street for an early between-games dinner, optimism was high that the Cubs could pull off the sweep and thus move to within 1.5 games of first place. It's impossible to tell how many people attended both games, but by 5:30, 90 minutes before the scheduled night game time, lines for the bleachers extended from the corner of Waveland & Sheffield all the way to Clark Street on the LF side, and around the corner onto Addison Street on the RF side, forcing the Cubs to open the park thirty minutes before they had originally planned -- there was some rowdiness in line and the Cubs, apparently fearing trouble on the street, figured it was easier to get everyone inside.

Games like the second are maddening -- with the regulars (save Kosuke Fukudome) back in the lineup and Randy Wells pitching as well as he has so far, you figure there's a good chance at a sweep. Unfortunately, Ryan Ludwick had other ideas -- he hit a pair of two-run homers. That, really, was the story of the game. Wells didn't have his good command in the first inning, but after he got Pujols to hit into a double play, it looked as if he could have gotten out of the inning unscathed. Ludwick had other ideas, and repeated the blast in the sixth for his seventh career two-homer game. (Other than the homers, Wells threw a pretty good game after he settled down.)

The Cubs had their chances; they left RISP in the third, fourth and sixth and took far too many called third strikes, although the latter may have been more due to a badly-called strike zone by plate umpire Marvin Hudson than any fault of Cub hitters. I once facetiously criticized Milton Bradley for drawing too many walks. Yesterday, he had four of them -- three in the first game -- and probably should have had ball four in the ninth inning. My friend Phil -- who I don't often agree with -- says that maybe the Cubs should try Bradley in the leadoff spot after the break. It's an intriguing idea, especially with his 41 walks now second on the team to Fukudome and his .379 OBA tops on the roster. Bradley's not driving in runs right now -- why not use him in a spot where he can contribute to the team and get on base to start a game?

The most entertaining part of game two was Lou's decision -- done by managers every now and again -- to shift Sean Marshall to left field after he had walked pinch-hitter Nick Stavinoha to load the bases in the top of the ninth, so that Aaron Heilman could come in and face Brendan Ryan. The Marshall Plan then had him return to the mound to throw the rest of the inning, with Reed Johnson going to LF. The look on Alfonso Soriano's face and his bearing were priceless when Lou pointed at him -- "Who, ME? You want ME to come out of the game?" Marshall stood there as if he were just getting ready to shag flies during batting practice; Heilman did his job by striking out Ryan and then Marshall returned to the mound, bases still loaded, and calmly retired the side, thanks in part to a catch Johnson made after tripping and falling (replays appeared to indicate the ball might have been trapped).

Unfortunately, it seemed as if umpire Hudson had a late dinner date, because he called three questionable third strikes in the last of the ninth, giving Ryan Franklin his 21st save and putting the Cubs back to .500.

It's not the worst spot to be in -- almost identical, in fact, to the 2003 Cubs' spot at the All-Star break (47-47, third, 3 games out) and the 2007 Cubs' spot at the break (44-43, second, 4.5 games out). This flawed and injured team still has a real shot at postseason competition, if, as Lou said in his postgame remarks, "they rest up, get healthy, and start swinging the bats. It's as simple as that."

It really is as simple as that, although the Cubs could also use relief help. As I tweeted yesterday, rumor has it that the Cubs are working on a deal for a major league catcher. I also heard late yesterday that they may be after some relief help by trade, and they may still go after B.J. Ryan after he clears waivers today, to which I say, "Good!" Send him to Iowa for a while, and if he's got anything left, put him in the pen and Marshall back in the rotation.

Enjoy the break. I will post an All-Star game thread sometime tomorrow, late afternoon or early evening, and then I am off to follow the Cubs on the next road trip. I'll be at the upcoming games in Washington and Philadelphia, so any of you who live there or are also traveling there and would like to meet up at Nationals Park or Citizens Bank Park, email me and we'll make arrangements. (Also, I have an extra pair of tickets for the Thursday night game in Washington, if you are interested.)

Here's to a great second half!

Cardinals Send Mark DeRosa to 15-Day DL

Matt Buggenhagen — Tue, 07 Jul 2009 18:42:42 -0000

More photos » by Jeff Roberson - ASSOCIATED PRESS

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Associated Press

ST. LOUIS (AP) - The St. Louis Cardinals are placing newly acquired utilityman Mark DeRosa on the 15-day disabled list, retroactive to July 1, because of a strained left wrist.

The Cardinals also announced before Tuesday night's game at Milwaukee that infielder Brian Barden and outfielder Nick Stavinoha are being recalled from Triple-A Memphis. St. Louis is sending infielder Tyler Greene to Memphis.

DeRosa, acquired last month from the Cleveland Indians, was injured during a June 30 game. He got off to a stuttering start with the Cardinals, going 0 for 9 in three games after batting .270 with 13 homers and 50 RBIs with Cleveland.

Barden batted .238 with four home runs and 10 RBIs in 51 games for the Cardinals this season, earning top NL rookie honors in April. Stavinoha batted .234 with one homer and 13 RBIs in 27 games with St. Louis this season.

Ouch! Already, not a good sign for the Cardinals.

Game 65: Indians 3, Cardinals 0

Ryan — Mon, 15 Jun 2009 03:20:08 -0000

More photos » by Tony Dejak - AP

Cliff Lee, in his rocking chair.

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Before the game, on ESPN's Baseball Tonight, Cliff Lee's 3-6 record was brought up as evidence that his 2009 had been sub-par. Steve Phillips, to his credit, quickly shot that down by noting that the Indians just weren't scoring runs during his starts. Lee then went on to show during the Sunday Night broadcast that he's pitching almost as well as his 2008 Cy Young season. After tonight, his ERA should be south of 3.00; last year at this time, his ERA was 2.55. He'll probably rank fourth in the AL in PRC, though well behind both Roy Halladay and Zach Greinke. Please, please, pay no attention to the record. It didn't matter last season, and it shouldn't this year.

Lee started tonight's game against the Cardinals with two walks in the first inning. Against Brendan Ryan, St. Louis's leadoff hitter, he just couldn't find the plate, but his free pass to Albert Pujols was more defensive pitching than wildness. He retired Ryan Ludwick and Nick Stavinoha to get out of the jam, and then went into a pitching zone. Cardinals hitters swung early in the count, probably because an aggressive approach was tonight's strategy against Lee, but Cliff was spotting his pitches so well that many of those early swings turned into weak-hit outs.

At the same time, Chris Carpenter was likewise zooming through innings, though the Indians were able to take advantage of their first inning opportunity. Mark DeRosa cranked a two-run homer in the first and Kelly Shoppach hit one out in the fifth, but beyond that, Carpenter was just as in control as Lee was. He gave up 6 baserunners in his eight innings of work, just one more than Lee did.

But back to Lee. After the first inning, the game seemed to go on fast-forward, so that his no-hitter bid seemed to jump up on you. There didn't seem enough time for the anticipation to build, so quickly was the game progressing. Albert Pujols lead off the inning, and after he got him to fly out to right field, Lee wouldn't have to face him again if he retired the next six hitters. In other words, his biggest obstacle in no-hitting the Cardinals was removed. He retired the next two batters in quick order, leaving just six outs remaining.

Yadier Molina lead off the eighth swinging at Lee's first pitch, a changeup on the outside corner. It was probably a bit higher than Lee wanted it to be, but still an excellent pitch. Unfortunately, the ball was hit straight down the line, and Shin-Soo Choo couldn't get to it before it hit at the base of the wall for an easy double. The no-hitter was no more. Choo could have caught the ball, but it would have taken a great defensive play to do so, for he would have had to overcome the wall, his glove hand being away from the path of the ball, and having to make the catch, despite these obstacles, on the dead run.

After that first hit, Cliff Lee took some time to regroup, for the game was still in doubt. The lead was three, and Cardinals were one baserunner from bringing the tying run to the plate. And Albert Pujols was now all but guarenteed another at-bat. If he allowed the runner on second to score, just one baserunner in the ninth would allow Pujols to tie the game with one swing of the bat. Colby Rasmus moved Molina to third with a weak grounder to second. Lee then recorded a big out in striking out Tyler Greene, and preserved the shutout by inducing another groundout.

The Cardinals did bring the tying run to the plate in the ninth, but it wasn't until after Pujols stepped to the plate. Brendan Ryan singled to open the inning, but Lee got Rick Ankiel to fly out. So the game's best player couldn't tie the game, and Lee got him to pop up after a masterful pitch sequence. Ryan Ludwick singled to put the game in the balance, but Stavinoha flied out to right to end the game. Lee finished his three-hit masterpiece having thrown just 93 pitches, most of which were just fastballs and changeups. He accomplished this by moving his fastballs in and out, or up and down, depending on the hitter. He used his changeups in place of his customary first-pitch fastball to get weak grounders. Tonight was the perfect embodiment of his 2008 transition from thrower to pitcher.

The Indians have won three straight series, are seven games under .500, and more importantly, six games out of first place. It's still a long shot for this team to climb back into contention, but a couple more series wins will make that long shot a lot shorter as players start to come off the Disabled List.

Next Up: Carl Pavano versus Dave Bush, 7:05 PM.

via www.fangraphs.com

Highest WPA		Lowest WPA
Cliff Lee	.452	Ryan Garko	-.045
Mark DeRosa	.124	Victor Martinez	-.036
Kelly Shoppach	.091	Luis Valbuena	-.030

In which the Teapot Dome is a baseball stadium

DanUpBaby — Mon, 01 Jun 2009 11:00:20 -0000

More photos » by George Nikitin - AP

Rick Ankiel, off the DL, watches Nick Stavinoha hit a double.

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I've been reading a fine (though occasionally scold-ish) history of the 1920s recently, which is convenient because this road trip strikes me as the Cardinals' return-to-normalcy moment after a hazy, bizarre May. For the first two weeks, the Cardinals couldn't hit; for the next week they couldn't be hit. But starting with the shutout loss that opened the Brewers series, and, for a change, featured two aces throwing up zeroes, the Cardinals have approached the league average OPS with the bats and, while still on an impossibly hot pitching streak, moved back from MVP closer territory.

Yesterday was a perfect example; Wainwright wasn't quite sharp enough, Pujols pasted the ball without much benefit, and the Cardinals, while chasing Jonathan Sanchez early, weren't able to get any traction against the Giants' bullpen. It's not the brand of losing the Cardinals practiced in early May—it's plain, frustrating losing, the milquetoast companion to their 6-2 win the day before, in which neither team was nearly no-hit or suddenly unstoppable.

It hasn't been all that pretty—they've split the first two series, and remain in a dogfight for first place—but the sheer blandness of the last few games has been a comfort. And that's normalcy, as our man Harding defined it.

I don't think anybody's been excited about Nick Stavinoha since, say, May of 2006, when the thrashing he gave the Midwest League upon being signed in 2005 gave way to a man-among-younger-men performance in AA, but within the boundaries of possible Stavinoha enthusiasm I was excited to see him draw a walk on Sunday, perhaps even more excited than I was to see him drive in two runs. Counting that hard-fought free pass against Jonathan Sanchez, who has been known to inadvertently walk players on his own team, opposing bat boys and mascots, and himself, the Super Noha has now walked twice in 96 career at-bats, for a walk rate of 2.1%.

He'd be a tweener even without that handicap—the slow guy/.300 average/doubles power skill-set seems like the perfect formula for producing a AAAA hitter—but with it he becomes frustrating to watch even as a marginally successful fill-in/fifth outfielder/third catcher. Even John Gall, his glorious ancestor, has a career walk rate that approaches 10%, the magic number at which hitters become bearable to watch. But Stavinoha's command of the strike zone was bad when he was a flash in the prospect pan and has only gotten worse, even as he's shown himself a capable AAA bat.

LG	G	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	WR
A	65	250	86	9	2	14	23	25	.344	.398	.564	9.2%
AA	111	417	124	26	3	12	28	81	.297	.340	.460	6.7%
AAA	139	501	131	17	0	13	31	81	.261	.309	.373	6.2%
AAA	112	427	144	23	3	16	20	50	.337	.366	.518	4.7%

I get the feeling that his stint in low-A is about what it would look like if you threw Jeff Francoeur into the Midwest League—not a lot of walks, but more, and an out-of-character home run binge. This would be an odd progression, a startling one, except from the moment he was drafted, as a 23-year-old, it seemed clear that he was too good for A-ball, and he was; he could wait for his pitch, and hit it for twice as high a home run rate as he's managed in the high minors. And he's been too good for low-A ever since. But like a lot of players—most of whom are already in the majors when this happens—he was basically the same player at 23 that he is at 27. And that player is less frustrating than playing Joe Thurston or Adam Kennedy in left field, but not a lot less frustrating.

Pet prospect update: Gary Daley, Pham-forbid my favorite Cardinals suspect, struck out 8 in 5.2 innings and walked 4, to bring his ERA down to 7.15. He's managed to reverse his 2008 nightmare and go... all the way back to where he was in 2007: tons of groundballs, tons of strikeouts, tons of walks. I don't know what he's like to watch, but he can't have a big fastball, because that kind of profile screams for a Blake King-ian relief conversion.

Meanwhile, if you've got a Trey Hearne-sized spot in your heart for a flawed, interesting internet prospect, consider Daley's teammate, slugging lefty(!) catcher(!) Charles Cutler. In his baseball-age 22 season, he's hitting .386/.435/.507, with a nice K:BB ratio near one. The Cardinals' 2008 fourteenth rounder, he had a quiet .300 average in short-season ball last year. If he's got any glove at all, he's got a fighting shot at being the high-average left-handed catching prospect who's blocked by Matt Pagnozzi in 2011.